Thursday, April 18, 2013

COMMODITY OUTLOOK

Gold
Technical
Gold fluctuated yesterday, but remained below the key short term level at 1400.00, the ongoing consolidation could be a bearish continuation pennant formation, accordingly, the bearish scenario remains likely, where only a break above 1400.00 could lead to a deeper upside correction.
Gold Daily Graph

Pivot: Support Resistance

1,365 1,340 1,390 1,320 1,400 1,308 1,425

Recommendation

Based on the charts and explanations above, we prefer to short gold below 1380.00 targeting 1360.00, 1340.00 and 1320.00 Stop loss with hourl closing above 1397.00.

Highlights
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Gold prices rise as physical buyers surface after the dip. Futures lower. SPDR holdings fall 0.7 percent on Tuesday. Cyprotic government to sell gold within next months: finance minister. Gold Traders "Still in Shock" After "Excessive Selloff" . COMMODITIES: Gold Futures Turn Lower, CFTC May Probe Metal's Price Drop

Source: Meta Trader, IGI Research

Fundamentals
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Gold rose Wednesday as the historic slide to two-year lows attracted buyers for the physical metal, but sentiment is still shaken by the biggest drop in 30 years. "[But] if you look at the fundamentals, the drop was excessive and does not correspond to the reality that we still have a lot of troubles out there debt monetization, real interest rates will remain in negative territory and the Dollar in the long run still is a currency that won't be that strong." According to reports coming out of Shanghai and Hong Kong, people are flocking to jewelry shops, not to sell, but to buy gold, with some shops selling out of their gold stock in one or two days. Apparently the lower prices are making some think its the perfect opportunity to buy that gold ring they always wanted. Cyprus has 13.9 tonnes of gold, according to the latest World Gold Council figures. The European Commission said last week that the country has committed to selling around 400 million worth of so-called "excess" gold as it tries to raise enough to secure a 10 billion bailout. Since gold's price drop however, Cyprus's entire gold reserve is now worth around 470 million. Worries are also festering that other indebted euro zone countries could follow Cyprus in selling bullion reserves to raise cash after the island's finance minister Harris Georgiades expected a sale within the next few months. In other news, The Commodity Futures Trading Commission may take a deeper look into the price of gold following Monday's price plunge. Democratic CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton told Bloomberg TV today that the drop doesn't necessarily mean "anything nefarious" happened but whenever something like this happens "we got to look at it." After precious metal prices collapsed, they staged a significant counter movement yesterday, gold gaining by 4% for a time and briefly regaining the $1,400 per troy ounce mark.

Weekly Technical
Gold decline accelerated sharply last week through 1500 psychological to close at 1476.1, even below 1478.3 medium term support. Outlook is not looking good. Initial bias will stay on the downside this week and deeper fall could now be seen to next key support level at 1400, which is close to long term projection level at 1398.3. On the upside, break of 1539.4 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming or outlook will stay bearish in gold. In the bigger picture, last week's acceleration in this stage of fall is raising the chance that fall from 1923.7 is a long term down trend and is far from being over. Close attention will now be paid to 38.2% retracement of 681 to 1923.7 at 1449.0. Decisive break there should at least bring medium term fall to 61.8% retracement at 1155.7 and below. On the upside, break of 1616.5 is now needed to indicate medium term reversal or outlook will stay bearish.

US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Data

Large Speculators Date Long Short 87,110 73,285 67,943 82,428 84,453 Bullish 70% 74% 75% 71% 71% Long 12-Mar-13 201,617 19-Mar-13 208,895 26-Mar-13 200,389 02-Apr-13 202,634 09-Apr-13 203,812 Commercial Short Bullish 34% 31% 32% 33% 33% 149,550 291,671 136,677 299,041 139,588 298,061 137,205 279,727 135,855 279,657 Small Speculators Long 58,502 58,018 55,319 52,253 52,973 Short 30,888 31,264 29,292 29,937 28,530 65% 65% 65% 64% 65% Open 445,651 440,712 419,727 417,716 416,513 Bullish Interest

SPDR Gold Trust

Tonnes: Ounces : Value in US$:

1,134.79 36,484,650.02 50,770,064,802.05

Source: CFTC, IGI Research

Copyright 2007 IGI Finex Securities Limited

This document has been prepared by IGI Finex Securities Limited and is for information purposes only. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure that all the information (including any recommendations or opinions expressed) contained in this document (the information) is not misleading or unreliable, IGI Finex Securities Limited makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Neither IGI Finex Securities Limited nor any director, officer or employee of IGI Finex Securities Limited shall in any manner be liable or responsible for any loss that may be occasioned as consequence of a party relying on the information. This document takes no account of the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of investors, who shall seek further professional advice before making any investment decision. This document and the information may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose.

Thursday, April 18, 2013

COMMODITY OUTLOOK

Crude Oil
Technical
WTI crude oil resumed the bearish direction after a pullback towards 89.00 level, to record new lows below 86.00 level, however a clear bullish divergence is seen on RSI over the four-hour interval. Accordingly, we prefer to turn neutral for now, and monitor price action within the upcoming sessions.
Crude Oil Daily Graph

Pivot: Support Resistance

86.52 86.05 87.00 85.22 87.85 85.00 88.40

Recommendation

Based on the charts and explanations above, we prefer to be neutral

Highlights
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Crude Oil Inventory & Growth Downgrades Weigh On Prices. Crude oil tumbles after chinas GDP misses expectation. Oil down in Asian trade. Crude fell in New York today on todays EIA report and gloomy earnings.

Source: IGI Commodity Research

Fundamentals
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Crude oil supplies tumbled 6.66mn barrels, distillate fuel inventories increased 1.26mn barrels and gasoline stockpiles rose 253,000 barrels to 22.6mn barrels according to the API data release on Tuesday. Traders will closely watch todays EIA weekly inventory release. Concerns over Chinese growth & recovery also affecting crude oil demand. Chinas most recent data showed that the economy grew by 7.7% in the first quarter against expectations of 8%.

Weekly Technical
Crude oil dropped sharply last week and is back pressing 90 but it's somewhat still staying in recent converging range. Outlook stays neutral first. Key near term focus is now on 89.33 support and 97.80 resistance. We'd still favor that recent price actions are in triangle pattern and thus, would expect any downside attempt to be contained above 89.33. Meanwhile, sustained break of 97.80 will be an important sign of upside strength and should at least send crude oil for a take on 100 psychological level. In the bigger picture, price actions from 114.83 are viewed as a triangle consolidation pattern, no change in this view. And, such consolidation could still be in progress and Crude oil remains bounded in the converging range. Nonetheless, the pattern should be close to completion and an upside breakout should be seen soon. Above 100.42 will strongly suggest that whole rebound from 33.29 has resumed for above 114.83. And in case of another fall, strong support should be seen above 77.28 to bring rebound.
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Crude oil production in North Dakota, the No. 2 U.S. oil-producing state, hit an all-time high in February but will really accelerate in May after bad weather and road restrictions end, the states Department of Mineral Resources said . The ample availability of crude oil in the US Midwest is also reflected in the inventory data released by the American Petroleum Institute. Stocks at Cushing climbed sharply for the second week running, whereas total crude oil stocks declined by 6.7 million barrels. EIA report showed that Crude oil inventories decreased unexpectedly by 1.2 million barrels in the last week, in contrast to analysts forecast that saw an increase by 1.2 million barrels. This followed a rise by 0.3 million barrels in the previous week. "At long last a little reality. Revisions in GDP & global forecasts for growth are all coming in line and lower," Jonathan Barratt, chief executive officer at Barratt's Bulletin in Sydney, told AFP. The International Monetary Fund yesterday shaved projections for global economic growth and forecast growth for MENA oil imports of 2.7%, down from 3.3% previously. The US has lots of crude oil. The lack of demand out of China is also going to weigh quite heavily." "This is all continuation selling - the bulls are getting stopped out and bears are stepping in to fill the void," Schork said.

US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Data

Large Speculators Date Long Short Bullish 72% 73% 75% 75% 74% Long 12-Mar-13 376,467 148,272 19-Mar-13 358,086 134,365 26-Mar-13 364,846 120,239 02-Apr-13 369,816 120,966 09-Apr-13 349,203 125,805 Source: CFTC, IGI Research Commercial Short Bullish 42% 42% 42% 41% 42% 600,968 826,255 579,870 801,723 605,459 849,358 604,305 860,779 641,239 872,511 Small Speculators Long 81,786 77,210 80,913 87,321 87,255 Short 84,694 79,078 81,621 79,697 79,381 Bullish 49% 49% 50% 52% 52% Open Interest 1,720,024 1,647,391 1,693,684 1,731,930 1,768,185

Copyright 2007 IGI Finex Securities Limited

This document has been prepared by IGI Finex Securities Limited and is for information purposes only. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure that all the information (including any recommendations or opinions expressed) contained in this document (the information) is not misleading or unreliable, IGI Finex Securities Limited makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Neither IGI Finex Securities Limited nor any director, officer or employee of IGI Finex Securities Limited shall in any manner be liable or responsible for any loss that may be occasioned as consequence of a party relying on the information. This document takes no account of the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of investors, who shall seek further professional advice before making any investment decision. This document and the information may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose.

Thursday, April 18, 2013

COMMODITY OUTLOOK

Silver
Technical
Silver is attempting to resume the bearish wave, after unloading some of the excessive oversold conditions. Over the near term, 24.00 level should form a ceiling for bounces, otherwise, a push above 24.00 could extend to 24.90-25.00. We maintain our bearish view so long as below 24.00 area.
Silver Daily Graph

Pivot: Support Resistance

22.9 22.7 23.1 22.5 23.7 22.3 24.0

Recommendation
Based on the charts and explanations above, we prefer to short silver below 23.40 targeting 22.60 and 22.05. Stop loss above 24.10

Highlights
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Source: IGI Commodity Research

Gold and silver continues to snowball. US silver prices hit 30 days-low Dont panic buy silver,Rick mills.

Fundamentals
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Silver was trading more than 5% up for a while at just shy of $24 per troy ounce. Nonetheless, gold and silver proved unable to hold onto their gains, shedding part of their price increases again during the course of trading Silver weakening as precious metals decline and industrial metals tumble has seen silver holdings of ishares silver trust, the largest ETF backed by the metal, declined to 10,451.01 tons, as on April 15. silver began to tumble it breached several important technical levels which trigger the panic button in the world market causing huge sell offs by ETF funds. Gold and silver have seen some big moves as Chinese growth concerns weighed after yesterdays data and the Boston Marathon bombing weighed heavily on risk sentiment. The routing across precious continues to dominate mediaheadlines, with gold now down $225 (-13.6%) in 2 sessions,while silver has lost $4.90 (-17.6%) in the same period. On Tuesday, April 16, the price of US silver fell to a thirty-day low after shifting 12.2 percent. The price of Chinese silver reached a thirty-day low after decreasing 11.6 percent. Japanese silver saw its price rise 0.7 percent. Indian silver dropped 1.1 percent on Tuesday. The recent publication of the minutes of the FOMC meeting in March may have been among the instigators for the recent tumble in the prices of precious metals. The minutes raised speculation that the Fed might end or perhaps slow down its current asset purchase program. The upcoming meeting of the Fed at the end of April might provide some additional insight as to the future steps the Fed will take. Credit Suisse today announced the launch of its new Silver Shares Covered Call ETN which is listed under the ticker symbol SLVO and began trading on The Nasdaq Stock Market this morning.

Weekly Technical
Silver's fall accelerated sharply to close at 25.76 last week below 26.105 key medium term support. The development indicates that the larger down trend has just resumed. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and next target will be long term fibonacci level at 24.22. On the upside, break of 28.02 is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish even in case of recovery. In the bigger picture, silver did break through 26.105 finally as expected. The fall from 2011 high of 49.82 should now extend to long term fibonacci level at 24.22. Sustained break there will likely send silver back to next long term support zone of 14.65/19.50. On the upside break of 35.445 resistance is now needed to be the confirmation of upside momentum. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish. ISHARE Silver Trust
Tonnes Ounces Total Net Assets 10,703.60 344,128,591.100 USD 10,019,275,888
n n

US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Data

Large Speculators Date 12-Mar-13 19-Mar-13 26-Mar-13 02-Apr-13 09-Apr-13 Long 38,637 38,707 37,548 38,201 38,492 Short 20,529 23,656 26,144 30,055 30,577 Bullish 65% 62% 59% 56% 56% Long 51,929 55,014 55,564 57,847 61,060 Commercial Short 81,352 81,453 79,605 76,350 78,984 Bullish 39% 40% 41% 43% 44% Small Speculators Long 24,899 25,333 26,581 27,211 25,754 Short 13,584 13,945 13,944 16,854 15,745 65% 64% 66% 62% 62% Open 148,283 151,521 151,568 155,755 162,241 Bullish Interest

Source: CFTC, IGI Research

Copyright 2007 IGI Finex Securities Limited

This document has been prepared by IGI Finex Securities Limited and is for information purposes only. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure that all the information (including any recommendations or opinions expressed) contained in this document (the information) is not misleading or unreliable, IGI Finex Securities Limited makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Neither IGI Finex Securities Limited nor any director, officer or employee of IGI Finex Securities Limited shall in any manner be liable or responsible for any loss that may be occasioned as consequence of a party relying on the information. This document takes no account of the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of investors, who shall seek further professional advice before making any investment decision. This document and the information may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose.

Thursday, April 18, 2013

COMMODITY OUTLOOK

Data Calendar
Economic Data
Date
Monday, April 15,2013

Time
5:30am 6:3O am 7:00am

Currency
JPY AUD CNY CNY CNY CNY USD USD AUD AUD GBP GBP EUR GBP CAD USD USD EUR USD USD NZD GBP GBP USD CAD CAD CAD USD CAD AUD GBP EUR USD USD CAD USD EUR EUR CAD ALL USD ALL

Impact
H M H M M M M M H M H H H H H H H H M M H H H M H H H M H M H H H H M M M M H L M L

Economic Data
BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks Home Loans m/m GDP q/y Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y NBS Press Conference Industrial Production y/y Empire State Manufacturing Index TIC Long-Term Purchases Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks CPI y/y PPI Input m/m German ZEW Economic Sentiment BOE Inflation Letter Manufacturing Sales m/m Building Permits Core CPI m/m ECB President Draghi Speaks Treasury Sec Lew Speak FOMC Member Yellen Speaks CPI q/q Claimant Count Change MPC Meeting Minutes FOMC Member Bullard Speaks BOC Monetary Policy Report BOC Rate Statement Overnight Rate Crude Oil Inventories BOC Press Conference NAB Quarterly Business Confidence Retail Sales m/m Spanish 10-y Bond Auction Unemployment Claims Philly Fed Manufacturing Index BOC Gov Carney Speaks FOMC Member Raskin Speaks German PPI m/m Current Account Core CPI m/m IMF Meetings FOMC Member Stein Speaks IMF Meetings

Actual
2% 7.70% 20.90% 8.90% 3.1 -17.8B

Forecast
1.60% 8% 21.30% 10.10% 7.2. 41.3B

Previous
-0.30% 7.90% 21.20% 9.90% 9.2. 25.7B

5:30pm 6:00PM Tuesday, April 16,2013 6:30am 7:55am 1:30pm 2:00pm Tentative 5:30pm

2.80% -0.1 36.3 2.60% 0.90M 0.1

2.80% -0.30% 41.5 0.60% 0.94M 0.20%

2.80% -2.80% 48.5 -0.20% 0.94M 0.20%

Wednesday, April 17,2013

6:00pm 7:00pm 12:am 3:45am 1:30pm 6:30pm 7:00pm

0.40% -7.0K 0-0-9

0.50% 0.0K 0-0-9

-0.20% -1.5K 0-0-9

Thursday, April 18,2013

Friday, April 19,2013

Saturday, April 20,2013 Source: Forex Factory, IGI Research

7:30pm 8:15pm 6:30am 1:30pm tentative 5:30pm 7:00pm 8:00pm 9:00pm 11:00am 1:00pm 5:30pm Day 1 9:pm Day 2

1% -1.2M 2

1% 1.2M

1% 0.3M -5 2.10% 346K

-0.30% 347K

0.20% 13.9B 0.2%

-0.10% 14.8B 0.80%

(Scale of Impact: H = High, M = Medium, L = Low ) Lahore Office : (+92-42-35777864-69) Zaeem Haider Khan (0321-4772883) Sheharyar Niaz (0300-6688999) Waleed Bin Zahid (0346-6672413) Islamabad Office : (+92-51-2802241-43) Sanaullah Khan Marwat (0305-5555630) Faisalabad Office : (+92-41-2540843-45) Gul Hussain (0344-7770878)

For queries regarding technical analysis and database please contact Commodity Team: Karachi Office : (+92-21-35301392, 35301697) Sohaib Siddiqui (0342-2717017) Muhammad Mushahid (0333-3442657)

Copyright 2007 IGI Finex Securities Limited

This document has been prepared by IGI Finex Securities Limited and is for information purposes only. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure that all the information (including any recommendations or opinions expressed) contained in this document (the information) is not misleading or unreliable, IGI Finex Securities Limited makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Neither IGI Finex Securities Limited nor any director, officer or employee of IGI Finex Securities Limited shall in any manner be liable or responsible for any loss that may be occasioned as consequence of a party relying on the information. This document takes no account of the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of investors, who shall seek further professional advice before making any investment decision. This document and the information may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose.