Number of Bets

Yield
Average Odds
Standard Deviation
t-statistic
p-value
1-in-x probability

200
0.1
1.66
0.785
1.802
0.037
27

This worksheet estimates the probability that a level stakes profitable betting record w
have arisen purely as a result of chance alone. Enter the number of bets in the record i
cell A1, the decimal yield or profit over turnover in cell A2 (for example a 5% yield = 0.0
20% yield = 0.20) and the average decimal betting odds for the whole record. The
calculated p-value will range from 0.5 to 0. The smaller the p-value, the less likely the
record will have arisen by chance, in other words the more likely something else like sk
may be the primary cause. Anything more than p-value=0.01 is not considered by
statisticians to be evidence of something other than chance going on. The 1
is simply the inverse of the p-value. For example a p-value of 0.01 means that your reco
will arise by chance 1 in 100 times. This estimation is fairly robust for variable staking
provided the stake sizes do not vary too much. This test is less reliable for records short
than 100 bets. This test also assumes that you are betting to market efficient (or 100%
value) prices, i.e. random pick selection will break even over the long term. For typical
fixeds odds match bet markets, market leading (best) prices will closely approximate 10
value prices.

at a level stakes profitable betting record will

ne. Enter the number of bets in the record in
over in cell A2 (for example a 5% yield = 0.05, a
etting odds for the whole record. The
value, the less likely the
words the more likely something else like skill
value=0.01 is not considered by
her than chance going on. The 1-in-x probability
value of 0.01 means that your record
mation is fairly robust for variable staking
ch. This test is less reliable for records shorter
ou are betting to market efficient (or 100%
break even over the long term. For typical
ing (best) prices will closely approximate 100%

0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1

Average Odds
Standard Deviation
t-statistic p-value
1-in-x probability
2
0.995
1.005
0.159
6
2
0.995
1.054
0.147
6
2
0.995
1.101
0.137
7
2
0.995
1.146
0.127
7
2
0.995
1.189
0.118
8
2
0.995
1.231
0.110
9
2
0.995
1.271
0.103
9
2
0.995
1.310
0.096
10
2
0.995
1.348
0.090
11
2
0.995
1.385
0.084
11
2
0.995
1.421
0.078
12
2
0.995
1.456
0.073
13
2
0.995
1.491
0.069
14
2
0.995
1.524
0.064
15
2
0.995
1.557
0.060
16
2
0.995
1.589
0.057
17
2
0.995
1.621
0.053
18
2
0.995
1.651
0.050
20
2
0.995
1.682
0.047
21
2
0.995
1.712
0.044
22
2
0.995
1.741
0.041
24
2
0.995
1.770
0.039
25
2
0.995
1.798
0.037
27
2
0.995
1.826
0.034
29
2
0.995
1.853
0.032
30
2
0.995
1.880
0.030
32
2
0.995
1.907
0.029
34
2
0.995
1.933
0.027
37
2
0.995
1.959
0.025
39
2
0.995
1.985
0.024
41
2
0.995
2.010
0.023
44
2
0.995
2.035
0.021
47
2
0.995
2.060
0.020
49
2
0.995
2.084
0.019
52
2
0.995
2.108
0.018
56
2
0.995
2.132
0.017
59
2
0.995
2.156
0.016
63
2
0.995
2.179
0.015
67
2
0.995
2.202
0.014
71
2
0.995
2.225
0.013
75
2
0.995
2.247
0.013
79
2
0.995
2.270
0.012
84
2
0.995
2.292
0.011
89
2
0.995
2.314
0.011
94
2
0.995
2.335
0.010
100
2
0.995
2.357
0.009
106
2
0.995
2.378
0.009
112
2
0.995
2.399
0.008
119
2
0.995
2.420
0.008
126
2
0.995
2.441
0.007
133
2
0.995
2.462
0.007
141
2
0.995
2.482
0.007
150
2
0.995
2.503
0.006
158
2
0.995
2.523
0.006
168

Yield
0.1

0.180
0.160
0.140
0.120
p-value

Number of Bets
Yield
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
420
430
440
450
460
470
480
490
500
510
520
530
540
550
560
570
580
590
600
610
620
630

0.100
0.080
0.060
0.040
0.020
0.000
0

200

Vary cells J2 (the yield) and K2 (the av

of the relationship between p
record. You will notice that for a fixed
for longer betting odds, in other word
significant and less likely to be the res
chance.

640
650
660
670
680
690
700
710
720
730
740
750
760
770
780
790
800
810
820
830
840
850
860
870
880
890
900
910
920
930
940
950
960
970
980
990
1000

0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1

2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2

0.995
0.995
0.995
0.995
0.995
0.995
0.995
0.995
0.995
0.995
0.995
0.995
0.995
0.995
0.995
0.995
0.995
0.995
0.995
0.995
0.995
0.995
0.995
0.995
0.995
0.995
0.995
0.995
0.995
0.995
0.995
0.995
0.995
0.995
0.995
0.995
0.995

2.543
2.562
2.582
2.601
2.621
2.640
2.659
2.678
2.697
2.715
2.734
2.752
2.771
2.789
2.807
2.825
2.843
2.860
2.878
2.895
2.913
2.930
2.947
2.964
2.981
2.998
3.015
3.032
3.048
3.065
3.081
3.098
3.114
3.130
3.146
3.162
3.178

0.006
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.004
0.004
0.004
0.004
0.004
0.003
0.003
0.003
0.003
0.003
0.003
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001

177
188
199
210
223
235
249
263
279
295
312
330
349
369
390
412
435
460
487
514
544
574
607
642
678
716
757
800
845
892
943
996
1052
1111
1173
1239
1309

Average Odds
2

200

400

600

800

Bets

J2 (the yield) and K2 (the average odds) to see the effect

tionship between p-value and the number of bets in a
u will notice that for a fixed yield, p-values are higher
betting odds, in other words the yield is less statistically
and less likely to be the result of anything other than

1000

Web donde se descarga y explica este excel:

http://www.football-data.co.uk/blog/luck_skill_sports_betting.php

Post de forobet con las estadisticas de final de temporada de la estretagid e graficos:

http://foroapuestas.forobet.com/estrategias-de-apuestas-deportivas/41689-estrategia-rachas-soportes-y-resistencias-19.html#p

-y-resistencias-19.html#post476561