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4th IRON ORE & COAL World World Shipping Summit 2012
1Q00 3Q00 1Q01 3Q01 1Q02 3Q02 1Q03 3Q03 1Q04 3Q04 1Q05 3Q05 1Q06 3Q06 1Q07 3Q07 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 Handysize 10-yr Panamax 5-yr Handymax 5-yr Capesize 5-yr
Drewry 2011
Iron ore and coal contribute to 60% the total dry bulk trade
Dry bulk
Major bulk
Minor bulk
Iron ore
Coal
Grains
Steel Products
Forest Products
Aggregates
Fertiliser
Others
4.000 3.500 3.000 Million tons 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Historically, major bulk such as iron ore and coal witnessed higher trade growth than that of the minor bulk cargoes. Iron ore and coal contribute to 60% of the total dry bulk trade volume in 2011. Major bulk trade is mainly driven by the steel and power sectors in China, and to some extent India
Major bulk
Minor bulk
Drewry 2011
80 70 60 Million tonnes M 50 40 30 20 10 0
Steel production
Drewry 2011
2016
469.4
(mt)
189.2 93.5 EU15 119.2 USA Japan
1064.1
Drewry 2011
coking coal
OPG Power Plant (300 MW) Adani Power Plant (4,620 MW) Tata Power Plant (4,000 MW)
Pipavav Energy Power Plant (1,200 MW) Amreli Visa Power Plant ( (1,320 , MW) ) Dahejj Adani Power Plant (640 MW) Pi Pipavav Reliance Power Plant (1,200 MW) Thane Tata Power Plant (1,600 MW) Raigarh JSW Energy TPP (3,200 MW) Ratnagiri
Visakhapatnam
NTPC Power Plant (4,000 MW) Hinduja National TPP (1,200 MW) Simhapuri Energy Private Ltd. (540 MW) Madhucon and Malaxmi (540 MW) Thermal Powertech TPP (2,640 MW) Krishnapatnam TPP (1,600 MW) Reliance Power UMPP (4,000 MW)
Krishnapatnam
New Mangalore
Drewry 2011
2016
189.2 469.4 93.5 EU15 119 2 119.2 USA Japan 117.7 31 7 31.7 88.5 China S.Korea Taiwan India Others
1064.1
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Dry bulk tonne mile demand (btm) Minor Bulk Million tonnes
1,243 1,292 1,340 1,400 1,465 1,534
12.000 10.000 8.000 6.000 4.000 2.000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 201 15 2016 201 16
% Growth
1% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
% Growth
4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5%
Iron Ore 8.000 7.000 6.000 5.000 4.000 3.000 2.000 1.000 0 200 01 200 02 200 03 200 04 200 05 200 06 200 07 200 08 200 09 Billion tonne mile
Coal
% Growth
3% 6% 7% 9% 9% 9%
% Growth
5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6%
201 10
201 11
201 12
201 13
Grain
Overall CAGR of trade between 2012 and 2016: 5.2%. Overall CAGR in tonne mile demand between 2012 and 2016: 7.9% as distances are increasing. Forecasts are subject to current economic uncertainties. A prolonged slowdown in many countries in Europe will lower the growth in dry bulk demand. China and India growth rates are slowing. Chinese government policies to consolidate its steel industry, cool down housing market and curb inflation will have direct impact on iron ore trade. Whilst our outlook is optimistic , there is some downside risk to the growth in demand.
Drewry 2011
201 14
High delivery growth Heavy y deliveries as a result of over ordering g during g the 2006-2008 shipping pp g boom. Slippage of new building deliveries Fleet growth based on scheduled deliveries and expected demolitions: 31% in 2011-2013
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10
Number and dwt of demolition increasing: Total demolition 2009 (9.5 mdwt), 2011 (24.2 mdwt) Demolition age falling: Capes being scrapped around 27 years. Due to very recent energy efficiency designs, new technology ships would be far cheaper to operate, providing 20-25% higher efficiency. This will further push tonnage around 25 years to scrap yards. New environmental regulations on onboard ballast water t t treatment t and d emission i i control t l areas will ill put t further f th pressure on older tonnage.
'000 d dwt
10.000 9.000 8.000 '000 dwt 6.000 5.000 4.000 3.000 2 000 2.000 1.000 0 2007 2008 2009 Capesize 2010 VLOC 2011 Post-Panamax Post Panamax Age (years) 7.000 36 34 32 30 28 26 24 22
2011
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11
01
Chemical PCC MPP
02
03
04
05
06
General Cargo Offshore Tanker
07
08
RoRo (f) LPG (f) Dry Bulk (f)
09
10
RoRo LPG Dry Bulk
11
12
Reefer (f) LNG (f) Container (f)
13
14
Reefer LNG Container
15+ 15
Shipbuilding capacity (considering all sectors) increased four-fold from 50 mdwt in 2002 to 200 mdwt in 2010. On average nearly 30% of the total shipbuilding capacity is involved in dry bulk. For the past three years it has been over 60% of the total capacity The majority of yards, both new and established, have increased their productivity and their total production dramatically. Consequently, there is excessive shipbuilding capacity and yards are reducing prices to get new orders or resell cancelled orders. A number of new orders were placed in 2010 and 2011 due to falling prices. This will aggravate the problem of oversupply and freight market recovery. recovery This will continue to haunt dry bulk freight market as major chunk of low cost Chinese capacity is dedicated to dry bulk.
Drewry 2011
12
Shipbuilding consolidation
Dry bulk newbuilding orders
160 000 160.000 140.000 120.000 '000 dwt 100.000 80.000 60.000 40.000 20.000 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 New orders ('000 dwt) New orders (Nos) 1 600 1.600 1.400 1.200 Numb ber
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Newbuilding activity going down Consolidation in shipbuilding industry: orders drying up beyond 2013. China: impending consolidation of Chinese yards. Dalian D li Oriental O i t l Marine M i & Heavy H I d t Zhejiang Industry, Zh ji Ji Jingang Shi b ildi Shipbuilding, D Dongfang f Shi b ildi filed Shipbuilding fil d for f bankruptcy b k t in i 2012 Government aims to consolidate Chinas shipyards.
13
Deliveries assumptions Newbuilding delivery slippage was 33% in 2011. To August 2012 only 41% of the 2012 order book has been delivered, so clearly there will be further slippage/cancelation of deliveries in 2012. Forecast: 116 mil dwt ship deliveries in 2012, 83 mil dwt in 2013. Post-2013, deliveries will comprise of slippages from previous years and new orders.
Drewry 2011
Handymax
Atlantic
Pacific
w week 02/08 week 08/08 w week 14/08 w week 20/08 w week 26/08 w week 32/08 w week 38/08 w week 44/08 w week 50/08 w week 04/09 w week 10/09 w week 16/09 w week 22/09 w week 28/09 w week 34/09 w week 40/09 w week 46/09 w week 52/09 w week 06/10 w week 12/10 w week 18/10 w week 24/10 w week 30/10 w week 36/10 w week 42/10 w week 48/10 w week 02/11 w week 08/11 w week 14/11 w week 20/11 w week 26/11 w week 32/11 w week 38/11 w week 44/11 w week 50/11 w week 04/12 w week 10/12 w week 16/12 w week 22/12 w week 28/12 w week 34/12 w
24/10/ /07 05/12/ /07 06/02/ /08 17/03/ /08 02/05/ /08 13/06/ /08 25/07/ /08 05/09/ /08 17/10/ /08 28/11/ /08 16/01/ /09 27/02/ /09 10/04/ /09 22/05/ /09 03/07/ /09 14/08/ /09 25/09/ /09 06/11/ /09 18/12/ /09 29/01/ /10 12/03/ /10 23/04/ /10 04/06/ /10 16/07/ /10 27/08/ /10 08/10/ /10 19/11/ /10 31/12/ /10 11/02/ /11 25/03/ /11 06/05/ /11 17/06/ /11 29/07/ /11 09/09/ /11 21/10/ /11 02/12/ /11 13/01/ /12 24/02/ /12 06/04/ /12 18/05/ /12 29/06/ /12 10/08/ /12
14
15
Demand (% growth)
Supply (% growth)
Demand exceeds supply by more than 250 million dwt at present. Reduced Red ced speed can ease supply s ppl by b over o er 80 mdwt md t Demand-supply balance easing very slowly beyond 2014. Demand uncertainties in China, Europe and elsewhere.
16
Rays of hope Increasing demolition age due to falling earnings Ne energy New energ efficient designs might make older tonnage unviable. n iable Regulatory changes for ballast water treatment and emission control areas will be added pressure on older tonnage. These factors will ease supply. Slow steaming g can alleviate the oversupply pp y p problem marginally. g y Port congestion easing oversupply Consolidation in shipbuilding might rationalise capacity p on iron ore imports p Chinas continued dependence Rising electricity demand in developing Asia
Drewry 2011
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Drewry 2011