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NOAA forecast for below normal temperatures across much of the country through February 14; somewhat improved after
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center, made February 4
7%
propane 4.5%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey
propane
Northeast 14%
heating oil
Northeast 81%
natural gas
Northeast 20%
Midwest
36%
Midwest
5%
Midwest
31%
South
34%
South
10%
South
23%
West
16%
West
4%
West
26%
Propane-Heated Homes
320,522 245,071 240,185 213,359 212,317 189,025 176,520 162,117 113,175 110,486 103,017 83,386 57,442 54,015 38,617
State
New York Pennsylvania New Hampshire Massachusetts New Jersey Connecticut Maine Vermont Rhode Island
Propane-Heated Homes
237,738 188,880 72,091 68,517 60,990 43,849 41,477 38,497 10,361
Northeast Total
762,400
4%
Midwest Total
2,319,254
7%
PADD 2 (Midwest) propane inventories have trended lower on strong crop drying and extremely cold temperatures
PADD 2 propane inventories (million barrels) 35
Typical corn harvest dates (Sept 20 Nov 10) Rolling five-year average 15.6 MMbbls
30 25 20 15 10
January 31 9.6 MMbbls
inventory level
5 0 Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Conway (KS) price premium over Mt. Belvieu (TX) grew rapidly in late January, but has since narrowed
propane and propylene spot prices dollars per gallon 5.00
4.00
The positive spread between Conway and Mont Belvieu will draw supplies northward into areas most impacted by cold weather
2.00
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Thomson Reuters, data through February 4
5.00 PADD 1 Heating Oil 4.00 PADD 2 Heating Oil 3.00 PADD 1 Propane 2.00 PADD 2 Propane 1.00 winter 2011-2012 0.00 Oct-11 last winter this winter through February 3 Mar-13 Oct-13 Mar-14
Mar-12 Oct-12
Source: State Heating Oil and Propane Program, data through February 3 8
1/13/14
2.849 1.997 2.540 2.575 2.330 2.265 1.920 2.273 2.950 2.081 2.241
1/20/14
2.939 2.584 2.577 2.638 2.439 2.433 2.005 2.322 2.999 2.088 2.276
1/27/14
4.215 4.709 3.785 3.611 4.610 3.997 4.073 4.569 3.731 4.107 4.490
2/3/14
4.265 3.590 3.852 3.766 3.967 3.672 3.357 3.839 3.908 3.664 3.945
Note: Illinois, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Tennessee do not report information Source: EIA, State Heating Oil and Propane Program, data through February 5 http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/heatingoilpropane/
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
10
11
12