Programa de Maestra

Gestin de Tecnologas de Informacin y Comunicacin (M-GTIC)

Nombre del Curso: Filosofa de la Ciencia
Febrero 24 2012

UNIDAD II : INDUCTIVISMO y FALSACIONISMO

Contenido
Introduction Can scientific laws be derived from the facts? What constitutes a good inductive argument? The appeal of inductivism Falsifiability as a criterion for theory Degree of falsifiability Falsificationism and progress
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Introduction: Inductivism

Inductivism: From observation arises general theories (Francis Bacon, John Stuart Mills)
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Introduction: Inductivism
Deductive logic (drastically oversimplified): All A are B. X is an A. Therefore X is B. Inductive logic All copper we have tested conducts electricity. X is a piece of copper yet to be tested. Therefore X will conduct electricity.
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Introduction: Inductivism
The logic of induction (David Hume Scottish empiricist 1711-1776)

All A observed so far are B. [i.e. All A are B] X is an A not yet observed. Therefore X is B.
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[i.e. X is not an A] [X is B.]

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Introduction: Inductivism
The logic of induction ( David Hume) Example 1 1. All books on philosophy are boring. 2. This book is a book on philosophy. 3. This book is boring. 1& 2 premises 3 Conclusion
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Introduction: Inductivism
The logic of induction ( David Hume) Example 2 1. Many books on philosophy are boring. 2. This book is a book on philosophy: 3. This book is boring. What does it take to confirm a universal generalization?

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Can scientific laws be derived from the facts?

It can be straightforwardly shown that scientific knowledge cannot be derived from the facts if "derive" is interpreted as "logically deduce.
Examples: "metals expand when heated" "acids tum litmus red
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Can scientific laws be derived from the facts?

Premises : 1. Metal X1 expanded when heated on occasion t1 2. Metal X2 expanded when heated on occasion t2 n. Metal Xn expanded when heated on occasion tn Conclusion All metals expand when heated It is simply not the case that if the statements constituting the premises are true then the conclusion must be true.
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What constitutes a good inductive argument?

If an inductive inference from observable facts to laws is to be justified, then the following conditions must be satisfied:
1. The number of observations forming the basis of a generalization must be large. 2. The observations must be repeated under a wide variety of conditions. 3. No accepted observation statement should conflict with the derived law.
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The appeal of inductivism

We have seen that the idea that the collection of facts can and should take place prior to the acquisition and acceptance of any knowledge does not bear analysis.
The laws and theories that make up scientific knowledge are derived by induction from a factual basis supplied by observation and experiment. Once such general knowledge is available, it can be drawn on to make predictions and offer explanations.

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The appeal of inductivism

The general form of all scientific explanations and predictions can be summarized thus: 1. Laws and theories 2. Initial conditions 3. Predictions and explanations This is the step depicted on the right-hand side of Figure 2.
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The appeal of inductivism

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The appeal of Inductivism

Three Approaches To Explanation A philosopher of science asks: What is the difference between describing a phenomenon and explaining it? In addition, what makes something an adequate explanation? Philosophers have defended three basic answers to this question

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The appeal of Inductivism

1 Inferential View (Carl G. Hempel, Paul Oppenheim) An explanation is a type of argument, with sentences expressing laws of nature occurring essentially in the premises, and the phenomenon to be explained as the conclusion. Also included in the premises can be sentences describing antecedent conditions. 2 Causal View (Wesley Salmon, David Lewis) An explanation is a description of the various causes of the phenomenon: to explain is to give information about the causal history that led to the phenomenon.
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The appeal of Inductivism

3 Pragmatic View (Ban van Fraassen) - An explanation is a body of information that implies that the phenomenon is more likely than its alternatives, where the information is of the sort deemed "relevant" in that context, and the class of alternatives to the phenomenon are also fixed by the context.

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Falsificationism(Karl Popper 1902-1904)

Popper (1934): Theories cannot be proven, just disproven

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Falsificationism
Scientific theories are never truly verified. Moreover, to be always verified is not a virtue in a scientific theory. Verification and falsification are asymmetrical: No accumulation of confirming instances is sufficient to verify a universal generalization. But only one disconfirming instance suffices to refute a universal generalization. Scientific theories are distinguished by the fact that they are capable of being refuted. They are falsifiable.
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Falsificationism
(Carnap vs. Popper)
Rudolph Carnap is an inductivist, (the Vienna cirlce) and in this respect he differs from Popper. However, both agree (taking inspiration from Hume) that there is a serious problem with the justification of "inductive inference." Carnap discusses it in terms of a puzzle about how we arrive at and form opinions regarding laws. Laws are universal statements (at least), hence apply to an at least potentially infinite domain. However, our empirical data is always finite.
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Falsifiability as a criterion for theory

Here are some examples of some simple assertions that are falsifiable in the sense intended. 1. It never rains on Wednesdays. 2. All substances expand when heated. 3. Heavy objects such as a brick when released near the surface of the earth fall straight downwards if not impeded. 4. When a ray of light is reflected from a plane mirror, the angle of incidence is equal to the angle of reflection.
Both 3 and 4 are falsifiable, even though they may be true.
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Falsifiability as a criterion for theory

Pseudo-science: A theory with the empirical trappings of real science, including a system of theoretical concepts and a wealth of corroborating evidence. But a pseudo-science has builtin defense mechanisms against possible refutation. The Freudian theory provides an interpretation for every conceivable symptom of the patient. Its predictions therefore can never be refuted.

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Falsifiability as a criterion for theory

Einsteins General Relativity: If it had failed its famous test of 1919, no one would have taken it seriously. But it passed the test, and Newtons theory of gravitation was refuted.

Albert Einstein (1879-1955) On the electrodynamics of moving bodies (1905) The foundation of the general theory of relativity (1916)
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Falsifiability as a criterion for theory

Empirical test of general relativity vs. Newtonian gravitation:
Light from a star passing near the Sun should be deflected. The evidence is the displacement of the stars apparent position. Rays of light bend in the presence of a gravitational field.
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Degree of falsiability:
Highly falsifiable theories should be preferred to less falsifiable ones, then, provided they have not in fact been falsified. The qualification is important for the falsificationist. Theories that have been falsified must be ruthlessly rejected.
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Falsificationism and progress:

Science starts with problems, problems associated with the explanation of the behaviour of some aspects of the world or universe. The progress of physics from Aristotle through Newton to Einstein provides an example on a larger scale. The falsification of Einteins theory remains a Challenge for modern physicists.

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References
What is this thing called Science?. (Chapter 4 & 5). An Introduction to the Philosophy of Science: Theory and Reality (Chapter 3 & 4). Philosophy of Science: The Central Issues Martin Curd and J. A. Cover (Chapter 1)
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