Pakistan Weekly Update

StockSmart

AKD Equity Research / Pakistan

Weekly Review

Index & Volume Chart

ANL

BOP

115.26

111.97

(Shrs'000)

26,784

400,000

26,608

350,000

JSCL

88.47

300,000

FCCL

67.66

250,000

LPCL

43.44

200,000

Universe Gainers & Losers

26,654

(Index)

6.0%

26,800

4.0%

26,750

2.0%

26,596
26,671

26,700
26,650

150,000

26,600

100,000
(mn)

(Index)

700

28,000
26,700

600

25,400

500

24,100
22,800

400

21,500
300

0.0%
2.0%

26,550

50,000

26,500
27Jan 28Jan 29Jan 30Jan 31Jan
ReadyVolume(LHS)

KSE100Index(RHS)

4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%

HCAR

Volum e (m n)

LOTCHEM

Sym bol

HUBC

Top-5 Volum e Leaders

EFOODS

Avg. Daily Turnover ('mn shares)

This week
299.49
Last week
310.28
Change
-3.48%

HBL

US$bn
62.65
62.81
-0.25%

AICL

PkRbn
6,607.30
6,623.62
-0.25%

POL

Indices
KMI-30
Allshare
This week 44,186.56 20,244.31
Last week 44,716.71 20,302.40
Change
-1.19%
-0.29%

ICI

Indices
KSE-100
KSE-30
This week 26,784.34 19,296.75
Last week 27,002.89 19,601.60
Change
-0.81%
-1.56%

The KSE-100 Index shed 0.81%WoW to close at 26,784 points with average daily turnover coming off by 3.48%WoW to 299.5mn shares. Volumes, however, picked up in the
last day of trading as the market gained up to 0.92% in intra-day trading with Cements
being the key gainers. Key news flows during the week were 1) strategic dialogue between Pakistan and the US commenced while the US stated that the next tranche of
US$352mn under the CSF has been approved with disbursement likely by Feb 614, 2)
IMF announced the next review of Pakistans program to be held in Dubai from Feb 114
onwards, 3) Chinese investors expressed keen interest in Pakistans textile space, 4) the
SBP gave permission for government securities to trade on the stock exchanges, and 5)
work on the Thar coal project commenced today. Political noise also remained in the
limelight with PM Sharif forming a 4-member committee to hold talks with the TTP while
the Supreme Court dismissed former President Musharrafs plea and barred him from
leaving the country. Key gainers during the week were SHEL (+3.5%WoW on expectations of increase in OMC margins and a potential buy-back by the parent company), ICI
(+3.4%WoW), DGKC (+1.6%WoW), POL (+1.2%WoW), AICL (+1.1%WoW). Top losers
during the week included HCAR (-9.2%WoW), LOTCHEM (-6.8%WoW after the company
posted a loss in CY13), EFOODS (-5.5%WoW), HUBC (-4.6%WoW after NEPRA refused
to formulate a coal conversion tariff for IPPs) and HBL (-4.5%WoW). Volumes during the
week were led by ANL (115.26mn shares), BOP (111.97mn shares), JSCL (88.47mn
shares), FCCL (67.66mn shares) and LPCL (43.44mn shares).

DGKC

research@akdsecurities.net
009221 111 253 111

SHEL

AKD Research

Mkt Cap.
This week
Last week
Change

31 January 2014

Source: KSE & AKD Research

20,200
18,900

200

17,600

100

16,300

0
Jan-14

Oct-13

Dec-13

Jul-13

Volume (LHS)

Aug-13

May-13

Jan-13

Mar-13

15,000

KSE-100 Index

Outlook
The result season should continue to drive market sentiment going ahead, where key
results next week include PTC, EFERT and EPCL. Moreover, with expectations of soft
CPI numbers for Jan14 (AKD estimate: 7.5%YoY), we expect market sentiment to remain buoyed with leveraged sectors such as Cements and Textiles expected to be in the
spotlight.

Important disclosures including investment banking relationships and analyst certification at end of this report. AKD Securities does and seeks to do business with companies

Important disclosures covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors
should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

AKD SECURITIES
Member: Karachi Stock Exchange

Find AKD research on Bloomberg

(AKDS<GO>), firstcall.com
and Reuters Knowledge

Copyright2014 AKD Securities Limited. All rights reserved. The information provided on this document is not intended
for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be
contrary to law or regulation or which would subject AKD Securities or its affiliates to any registration requirement within
such jurisdiction or country. Neither the information, nor any opinion contained in this document constitutes a solicitation
or offer by AKD Securities or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities or provide any investment advice or service. AKD
Securities does not warrant the accuracy of the information provided herein.

www.akdsecurities.net

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

31 January 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

This Weeks Daily Reports

Jan 31, 2014
26,849

PTC: CY13 Result Preview, AKD Daily (January 31, 2014)

26,812
26,775
26,738
26,701
26,664
26,627

16:27

15:42

14:57

14:13

13:30

12:47

12:04

11:20

9:52

10:36

9:08

26,590

Jan 30, 2014

26,678
26,650

Pakistan Telecommunication Company Limited (PTC) is scheduled to finalize its fullyear CY13 result over the weekend with result announcement on Monday Feb 3'14. On
a consolidated basis, we expect PTC to post NPAT of PkR15.07bn (EPS: PkR2.95) in
CY13 vs. NPAT of PkR8.00bn (EPS: PkR1.57) in full-year CY12 translating into a
growth of 88%YoY. However, factoring out extraordinary items (primarily the one-off
VSS expense booked in 3QCY12) results in normalized pre-tax growth of 10%YoY.
Sequentially, we expect 4QCY13F consolidated earnings to clock in at a relatively weak
PkR2.71bn (EPS: PkR0.53), lower by 9%QoQ with the ICH mechanism resulting in
lower incoming traffic (reportedly less than 500mn minutes per month vs. more than
1.5bn minutes per month pre-ICH). On an unconsolidated basis, we expect PTC to post
NPAT of PkR12.00bn (EPS: PkR2.35) in full-year CY13F. Alongside the result, we expect PTC to announce a final dividend of PkR1/share, to bring the full-year CY13 dividend to PkR2/share (payout ratio: 68%). However, there is the off chance that management decides to retain earnings ahead of the 3G auction. At current levels, PTC trades
at a CY14F P/E of 8.35x where our target price of PkR29.7/share implies a Neutral
stance. In our view, a conviction call on PTC is dependent on pricing of the 3G auction,
possible acquisition of Warid Telecom and clarity on the ICH mechanism post Telenor's
exit from the same.

26,622

EFERT: CY13 Result Preview, (January 31, 2014)

26,594
26,566
26,538

15:21

14:30

13:38

12:47

11:56

11:05

9:21

10:14

26,510

Jan 29, 2014

26,705
26,670
26,635
26,600
26,565

Engro Fertilizers Limited (EFERT) is scheduled to announce its full-year CY13 result on
Feb 7'14. We expect the company to post earnings of PkR5.6bn (EPS: PkR4.36) in
CY13F compared to a loss of PkR2.9bn (LPS: PkR2.3) during full-year CY12. In
4QCY13 alone, we expect the company to post earnings of PkR2.4bn (EPS: PkR1.87),
a stellar growth of 34.1%QoQ. Our earnings growth in 4QCY13 is premised on i) urea
volumes of 493.8k tons and combined phosphate (NP & NPK) volume of 29.0k tons, ii)
GMs of ~47.0%, iii) higher 'other income' at PkR380.5mn with the company having
combined ST Investments and cash balances of PkR11.7bn at end 3QCY13 and iv) flat
financial charges at ~PkR2.6bn. Following approval of concessionary gas rate for EFERT on Jan 16'14, the scrip has witnessed tremendous investor interest, closing at
consecutive upper locks in each trading session to-date. At a price of PkR47.4/share at
close of today's first trading session, we believe buying interest may now start to wane.
Going forward, while the GoP has approved the concessionary gas rate for Enven, confusion remains over the applicability of concessionary rate on gas from the Mari network. Any clarity on this will likely result in a second round of investor interest. At current levels, we have an 'Accumulate' stance on EFERT with a TP of PkR55.45/ share.
Dec'13 Fertilizer Offtake Update, AKD Daily (January 30, 2014)

26,530
26,495
15:26

14:49

14:12

13:36

13:00

12:23

11:47

11:10

10:34

9:58

9:21

26,460

Jan 28, 2014

27,030
26,950
26,870

According to official statistics released by the National Fertilizer Development Centre

(NFDC), total urea offtake in CY13 stood at 5.89mn tons, an increase of 13%YoY,
where strong demand and higher gas availability to EFERT led the growth. While urea
offtake in Dec'13 surged to 674k tons (up by 22%MoM), market share was dominated
by NFML. However, with the winding up of NFML and gas supply expected to continue
to EFERT's Enven through 1HCY14, import requirements should remain minimal going
forward. DAP offtake in CY13 stood at a 4-year high of 1.62mn tons led by record production by FFBL and a 25%YoY increase in imports. Importantly, urea/DAP consumption ratio in CY13 dropped to 3.6x vs a 10-year average median of 6.8x, and we expect
the trend to endure as input costs for urea continue to increase. At current levels, FATIMA and EFERT remain our top picks in the sector with respective TPs of PkR35/share
and PkR55/share.
Banks_Could see provisioning reversals in 4QCY13, AKD Daily (January 29, 2014)

26,790
26,710
26,630

15:13

14:22

13:32

12:41

11:51

11:01

9:19

10:10

26,550

Source:KSE&AKDResearch

Although weighted average spreads dropped close to 6% in Dec'13 (-22bps MoM/52bps YoY), incoming data suggests positives for both full-year CY13 and 1HCY14
banking sector results. In this regard, weekly SBP data indicates that combined provisions carried by scheduled banks (domestic operations only) have reduced by
PkR9.1bn in 4QCY13 which indicates the possibility of +ve earnings surprises in upcoming results (NBP/AKBL could be two possible candidates in our view). At the same
time, although spreads have ended CY13 on a very soft note, margin contraction in

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

31 January 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

This Weeks Daily Reports

Dec'13 is largely a result of higher deposit costs and continued decline in lending yields
that have yet to re-rate. As higher interest rates price into lending yields, spreads for
1HCY14 are likely to be incrementally better, thereby providing impetus to next year's
performance. Banks moved in tandem with the broader market in CY13 but we believe
outperformance could now be on the cards, particularly in the run-up to full-year result
announcements. At current levels, we like UBL (TP: PkR145/share), ABL (TP: PkR95/
share) and NBP (TP: PkR62.5/share).
Jan'14 CPI Preview, AKD Daily (January 28, 2014)
With result season yet to pick pace, incoming macroeconomic data is likely to set the
near-term tone. In this regard, after having clocked in at 9.2%YoY in Dec'13, we expect
headline CPI to remain in single digits in Jan'14 to clock in at ~7.5%YoY. This translates into a 0.1%MoM increase which is much lower than the 0.9%MoM CPI average
increase in 1HFY14. While SPI data suggests a steep 0.95%MoM decrease, the steady
sequential price pressure in CPI is expected on the back of 1) impact of rental inflation
(first month of the quarter), and 2) increase prices of non-perishable food items
(particularly chicken). This should lead to 7MFY14 CPI averaging 8.7%YoY vs. 8.3%
YoY during the same period last year. As a result, provided the exchange rate retains
its newfound stability, the DR may remain unchanged in the next MPS as well (due in
Mar'14). This could provide the catalyst for further market performance across the next
few months where so far incoming results (with the exception of EFOODS) have been
robust. From an investment perspective, we would avail any dip in the market to build
fresh positions in names such as UBL, NBP, NML, DGKC and ENGRO.
KAPCO: 1HFY14 Result Preview and Outlook, AKD Daily (January 27, 2014)
KAPCO is scheduled to announce its 1HFY14 result on Feb 18'14, where we expect
the company to post NPAT of PkR3,495mn (EPS: PkR3.97), a decline of 5%YoY, along
with a cash payout of PkR3.5/share. The decline is expected on the back of high
maintenance cost due to major overhaul of steam and gas turbines, which was completed in Nov'13. 2QFY14 earnings are expected to remain flat on a sequential basis at
PkR1,769mn (EPS: PkR2.01). While liquidity conditions are gradually weakening with
running finances expected to be near exhaustion, we expect fuel cost savings from a
planned conversion of plant's auxiliary heat load to coal from FY15. In this regard, while
we still await details on the project, back of the envelope calculations indicate savings
of ~PkR450mn (EPS impact: PkR0.51) annually. At current levels, KAPCO trades at an
FY14F P/E of 7.5x and D/Y of 13%. While our revised TP of PkR65/share implies a
Neutral stance, KAPCO remains one of the top defensive picks in the AKD Universe.

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

31 January 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

Regional Valuations (2014)

EPSGrowth
PE(x)
Pakistan
20% 8.61
Indonesia
13% 10.28
Malaysia
17% 11.41
Philippines
10% 14.52
Vitenam
15% 14.37
India
19% 12.60
China
15% 6.88

%
Pakistan
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Vitenam
India
China

ROE
21.19
18.62
13.64
14.78
18.44
17.51
14.00

DivdYld
5.93
2.66
3.52
2.58
n.a
1.93
4.06

Source: Bloomberg & AKD Universe

Major World Indices Performance

Country

BloombergCode

Pakistan
Srilanka
Thailand
Jakarta
Malaysia
Philippines
Vietnam
HongKong
Singapore
Brazil
Russia
India
China
S&P
DJIA
NASDAQComposite
UK
German
Qatar
AbuDhabi
Dubai
Kuwait
Oman
SaudiArabia
MSCIEM
MSCIFM

KSE100Index
CSEALLIndex
SETIndex
JCIIndex
FBMKLCIIndex
PCOMPIndex
VNINDEXIndex
HSIIndex
FSSTIIndex
IBXIndex
RTSSTDIndex
SENSEXIndex
SHCOMPIndex
SPXIndex
INDUIndex
CCMPIndex
UKXIndex
DAXIndex
DSMIndex
ADSMIIndex
DFMGIIndex
KWSEIDXIndex
MSM30Index
SASEIDXIndex
MXEFIndex
MXFMIndex

31Jan14

24Jan14

26,784
6,248
1,274
4,419
1,804
6,041
557
22,035
3,027
19,318
9,835
20,514
2,033
1,794
15,849
4,123
6,467
9,234
11,156
4,673
3,770
7,756
7,087
8,761
936
603

27,003
6,256
1,315
4,437
1,803
6,192
560
22,450
3,076
19,605
10,102
21,134
2,054
1,790
15,879
4,128
6,664
9,392
11,338
4,655
3,819
7,779
7,201
8,772
950
613

WoW

CYTD

0.81%
6.03%
0.12%
5.67%
3.07%
1.88%
0.42%
3.38%
0.08%
3.37%
2.43%
2.57%
0.66%
10.28%
1.85%
5.45%
1.59%
4.43%
1.46%
9.28%
2.65%
3.36%
2.93%
3.10%
1.04%
3.92%
0.22%
2.93%
0.19%
4.39%
0.12%
1.28%
2.95%
4.18%
1.68%
3.33%
1.61%
7.48%
0.38%
8.92%
1.27%
11.89%
0.29%
2.73%
1.57%
3.70%
0.13%
2.64%
1.42%
6.61%
1.71%
1.34%
Source: Bloomberg

International Major Currencies

SPOT

31Jan14

24Jan14

81.152

80.458

USD/PkR

105.470

105.477

105.0

USD/JPY

102.210

102.310

103.0

EUR/USD

1.352

GBP/USD
AUD/USD

PkR/US$ Trend

WoW

CYTD

0.694

0.86%

1.40%

0.007

0.01%

0.14%

0.100

0.10%

2.94%

1.368

0.016

1.16%

1.62%

1.646

1.648

0.002

0.14%

0.59%

0.871

0.868

0.003

0.33%

2.30%

NZD/USD

0.810

0.821

0.011

1.34%

1.34%

CHF/USD

0.905

0.895

0.010

1.12%

1.30%

CAD/USD

1.120

1.109

0.011

0.98%

5.40%

USD/KRW

1,081

1,080

0.610

0.06%

2.97%

CNY/USD

6.061

6.048

0.013

0.11%
0.21%
Source: Bloomberg

109.0

DollarIndex

107.0

101.0

99.0

Jan-14

Dec-13

Oct-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

May-13

Jan-13

Mar-13

97.0

Source: Bloomberg

Chg+/

Commodities

TRJ-CRB Index
305
300
295
290
285

SPOT

Units

31Jan14

24Jan14

WoW

CYTD

TRJCRB

Points

283.56

282.54

0.36%

1.21%

Nymex(WTI)

US$/bbl.

97.25

96.64

0.63%

1.19%

ICEBrent

US$/bbl.

107.67

109.15

1.36%

2.84%

N.GasHenryHub

US$/Mmbtu

5.27

5.65

6.73%

21.32%

Cotton

USd/Pound

92.25

93.75

1.60%

2.84%

Gold

US$/Tr.Oz

1248.97

1270.07

1.66%

3.59%

Sliver

US$/Tr.Oz

19.325

19.915

2.96%

0.74%
3.26%

280
275

Jan-14

Dec-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Sep-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Jun-13

May-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Jan-13

Feb-13

270

Source: Bloomberg

Copper

US$/MT

7135.5

7211

1.05%

Platinum

US$/Oz

1385.38

1431.25

3.20%

1.16%

Coal

US$/MT

80.4

80.4

0.00%

4.96%

Source: Bloomberg

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

31 January 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

Chart Bank
Earnings Yield vs. T-Bill (12M) Differential

Advance to Decline Ratio

(%)

1.60

12.0

1.50

10.0

1.40

8.0
6.0

1.30

4.0

1.20

2.0

1.10

FIPI Flows for the week

Jan14

Nov13

Sep13

Jul13

LIPI Flows for the week

(US$mn)

(US$'000)

13.50

5,000
3,813

4,000

10.00

M.Funds,
(11.11)

Ind., 0.10

2,969

3,000

6.50

2,000

3.00

1,000

(0.50)

(4.00)

(1,000)

May13

Jan13

Jan-14

Nov-12

Aug-09

Oct-11

0.80
Sep-10

(6.0)
Jul-08

0.90
Jun-07

(4.0)

Mar13

1.00

(2.0)

(811)

Co., (4.24)

(7.50)

(873)

(2,000)

Bank/DFI,
(2.03)

NBFC, 4.70

(11.00)

(3,000)

(2,812)

Others, (12.09)

(14.50)

(4,000)
30Jan

31Jan

KSE100

75%
65%
55%
45%
35%
25%
15%
5%
5%
15%
Jan14

AKDUniverse

Jan14

KSEAllShareIndex

Oct13

Nov13

Jul13

MSCIFM

Feb13

May13

MSCIEM

Jan13

52%
47%
42%
37%
32%
27%
22%
17%
12%
7%
2%
3%
Jan13

KSE-100 vs. MSCI-EM & MSCI-FM

Oct13

AKD Universe vs. KSE-100 Index

(18.00)

Aug13

29Jan

Jun13

28Jan

Apr13

27Jan

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

31 January 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

AKD Universe Valuations

31Jan14
EPS(PkR)
EPSchg(%)
EPSchg(%)ExFinancials
BookValueperShare(PkR)
Payout(%)
Valuations
PricetoEarnings(x)
PricetoBook(x)
PER(x)ExFinancials
P/BVS(x)ExFinancials
PricetoCF(x)
EarningsYield(%)
DividendYield(%)
EV/EBITDA(x)
Profitability
ReturnonEquity(%)
ReturnonAssets(%)
ChginSales(%)
GrossMargin(%)
OperatingMargin(%)
NetMargin(%)

2011A
8.30
24.32
25.20
39.05
53.13

2012A
9.18
10.52
10.97
45.04
50.27

2013A/E
9.99
8.85
15.75
50.61
51.91

2014F
11.99
20.04
23.55
56.58
51.08

2015F
13.87
15.72
16.97
63.50
49.01

12.43
2.64
13.38
3.23
20.06
8.04
4.27
7.73

11.25
2.29
12.06
2.82
21.25
8.89
4.47
6.84

10.33
2.04
10.42
2.41
10.64
9.68
5.02
6.01

8.61
1.82
8.43
2.10
18.78
11.61
5.93
5.23

7.44
1.63
7.21
1.85
11.56
13.44
6.59
4.62

21.26
3.79
17.34
23.41
14.47
11.20

20.38
3.59
17.28
21.79
12.95
10.55

19.73
3.79
6.12
22.80
13.99
10.83

21.19
4.02
13.68
22.36
13.85
11.43

21.85
4.22
10.52
22.85
14.61
11.97

Source: AKD Research

Market PER Chart 2014F

(x)
15
11
8

Jan14

Nov12

Aug11

May10

Mar09

Dec07

Sep06

Jul05

Source: AKD Research

Market P/BVS Chart 2014F

(x)
3.5
2.6
1.7

Jan14

Nov12

Aug11

May10

Mar09

Dec07

Sep06

Jul05

0.8

Source: AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

31 January 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

AKD Universe Active Coverage Clusters Valuations

EPS
DY

PE(x)

PB(x)

(PkR)
(%)

(PkR) (PkR)

12A 13A/E
14F 12A 13A/E 14F 12A 13A/E 14F 12A13A/E 14F
AutomobileandParts

IndusMotors
INDU
381.0 384.29 Neutral 54.742.7 49.067.08.97.81.81.71.58.46.66.3
PakSuzukiMotors
PSMC
164.5 173.46 Accumulate 11.924.3 21.7113.86.87.60.90.80.71.53.02.4
Construc onandMaterials

DGKC
95.7 105.47 Accumulate 9.412.6 12.1410.27.67.91.30.90.81.63.13.1
DGKhanCement
Chemicals

EngroPolymerChemicals
EPCL
15.0 16.49Accumulate 0.11.11.15 129.414.313.11.61.41.3
ICIPakistanLimited
ICI
321.1 228.39
Sell
9.79.3 17.8233.234.418.02.92.82.61.71.62.8
Lo eChemicalPakistanLtd. LOTCHEM 7.3 8.53Accumulate 0.00(0.02) 0.59 n.m n.m 12.30.90.90.8
3.4
EngroCorpora on
ENGRO 178.3 159.61 Reduce 2.618.7 18.2468.49.59.82.11.21.2
DawoodHerculesLimited
DAWH
67.6 71.83Accumulate 2.09.2 13.0733.17.35.21.7 n.a n.a1.5
FaujiFert.BinQasimLtd.
FFBL
42.4 49.33Accumulate 4.66.46.639.16.76.43.12.52.510.6 13.014.7
FaujiFer lizerCompany
FFC
113.4 138.62
Buy
16.416.9 16.416.96.76.96.66.05.813.7 14.114.3
Fa maFer lizer
FATIMA 28.3 35.09
Buy
2.94.15.029.77.05.62.11.81.57.17.17.1
FoodProducers

EngroFoodsLimited
EFOODS 102.0 80.92
Sell
3.41.72.6030.159.739.27.86.85.8
Oil&Gas

Oil&GasDevelopmentCo.
OGDC
272.5 265.50 Neutral 21.621.1 27.6112.612.99.94.43.62.92.73.04.2
PakOilfields
POL
529.8 612.57 Accumulate 50.145.8 59.1210.611.69.03.63.63.39.98.58.7
PakistanStateOil
PSO
341.8 335.18 Neutral 36.750.8 76.829.36.74.41.71.41.11.61.52.9
Electricity

HubPowerCo.
HUBC
64.6 77.41Accumulate 7.18.19.629.18.06.72.42.22.29.3 12.413.9
KotAdduPowerCompany
KAPCO
64.0 63.00 Neutral 6.98.49.059.37.77.12.42.32.310.8 11.713.7
FixedLineTelecommunica on

PakistanTelecommunica on PTC
28.6 29.71 Neutral 2.23.14.2012.89.36.81.21.21.17.910.5
PersonalGoods

NishatMills
NML
134.5 141.38 Accumulate 10.016.6 19.0313.48.17.11.30.80.72.63.03.7
NCL
63.8 61.61 Neutral 3.511.4 14.8218.35.64.32.11.61.22.62.87.1
NishatChunianLtd.
Banks

AlliedBankLimited
ABL
89.0 95.03Accumulate 11.410.7 11.007.88.38.11.81.61.46.66.26.7
BankAlFalah
BAFL
27.6 26.95* Accumulate 3.43.33.798.28.337.31.21.221.17.25.46.3
HabibBankLimited
HBL
165.4 154.97 Reduce 16.716.3 18.199.910.29.11.71.61.54.15.15.7
MCBBankLimited
MCB
283.8 255.00 Reduce 20.922.2 22.3613.612.812.72.72.52.34.24.95.3
Na onalBankofPakistan
NBP
58.4 62.50Accumulate 7.95.78.017.4 10.337.280.80.8 0.7410.47.79.4
UnitedBankLtd
UBL
134.0 145.00 Accumulate 15.715.0 15.938.58.98.41.61.61.46.36.36.7
*TPforBAFLrisestoPkR30/shareuponsuccessfulWaridstakesale

Stocks

Symbol

Price

TP

Stance

Source: AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

31 January 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

AKD Universe Coverage Clusters Performance

Stocks

Sym bol

Price
31-Jan-14

1M

CYTD

1 Year
High

1 Year
Low

26784.34

6.0

17.6

14.9

55.3

6.0

27104.70

17492.00

AGTL
MTL

204.01
462.85

-4.0
-4.1

3.3
2.4

-9.1
-4.4

-12.0
-10.2

-4.0
-4.1

235.93
519.58

197.00
433.73

INDU
PSMC

381.00
164.45

14.4
6.9

19.1
32.7

10.6
8.4

36.1
74.8

14.4
6.9

398.10
167.70

282.00
97.29

DGKC
LUCK

95.69
309.75

11.6
3.3

33.7
23.0

4.4
28.0

73.2
96.7

11.6
3.3

95.63
321.67

57.89
160.97

EPCL
ICI
LOTCHEM
DAWH
ENGRO
FATIMA
FFBL
FFC

15.02
321.12
7.27
67.60
178.26
28.33
42.43
113.44

12.0
26.9
-1.0
20.5
12.6
-0.8
-3.1
1.3

19.8
91.9
6.9
34.2
40.7
9.7
11.2
4.8

9.6
91.4
-4.7
22.9
10.3
12.6
2.7
4.2

52.2
106.6
-2.5
102.7
89.4
9.3
10.9
-4.3

12.0
26.9
-1.0
20.5
12.6
-0.8
-3.1
1.3

16.66
298.25
8.89
69.01
186.91
30.16
45.42
119.75

9.29
135.37
6.46
35.76
94.44
21.29
36.90
101.90

EFOODS

102.01

-2.3

19.5

-26.7

-4.0

-2.3

162.22

80.37

39.58

5.9

53.9

28.1

62.8

5.9

40.37

23.57

OGDC
POL
PSO

272.54
529.78
341.83

-1.4
6.4
2.9

1.0
10.8
24.1

10.8
1.7
-6.1

40.5
17.2
78.2

-1.4
6.4
2.9

287.84
531.92
367.10

197.32
435.37
184.67

HUBC
KAPCO

64.57
64.00

6.3
3.6

3.2
6.7

-4.7
6.8

33.2
18.5

6.3
3.6

73.42
68.34

50.13
49.53

PTC

28.63

0.7

7.3

1.8

53.8

0.7

31.70

17.46

NCL
NML

63.80
134.52

6.0
5.7

25.5
45.4

-0.7
28.4

70.6
109.8

6.0
5.7

68.82
140.79

43.31
67.46

ABL
AKBL
BAFL
HBL
HMB
MCB
MEBL
NBP
UBL

89.00
14.04
27.64
165.36
25.49
283.81
38.00
58.38
133.99

-1.1
0.3
2.2
-0.8
1.7
0.9
-3.5
0.6
1.1

4.7
29.0
21.8
11.9
13.7
0.9
0.6
18.3
8.8

14.1
7.1
30.7
-3.0
36.4
4.2
5.8
0.1
10.1

32.3
-8.5
49.5
53.3
39.4
46.7
45.7
29.1
48.0

-1.1
0.3
2.2
-0.8
1.7
0.9
-3.5
0.6
1.1

94.51
16.15
28.66
181.57
26.16
316.87
40.87
59.45
154.21

55.01
10.76
14.77
88.00
14.61
183.00
24.11
37.66
82.16

KSE-100 Index

Absolute Perform ance (%)

3M
6M
12M

Industrial Engineering
Al-Ghazi Tractor
Millat Tractors
Autom obile and Parts
Indus Motors
Pak Suzuki Motors

Construction and Materials

DG Khan Cement
Lucky Cement
Chem icals
Engro Polymer Chemicals
ICI Pakistan Limited
Lotte Pakistan PTA Limited
Daw ood Hercules
Engro Chemical
Fatima Fertilizer
Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd.
Fauji Fertilizer Company
Food Producers
Engro Foods Limited
Non Life Insurance
Adamjee Insurance

AICL

Oil & Gas

Oil & Gas Development Co.
Pak Oilfields
Pakistan State Oil
Electricity
Hub Pow er Co.
Kot Addu Pow er Company

Fixed Line Telecom m unication

Pakistan Telecommunication
Personal Goods
Nisaht (Chunian) Ltd.
Nishat Mills
Banks
Allied Bank Limited
Askari Bank Limited
Bank AlFalah
Habib Bank Limited
Habib Metropolitan Bank
MCB Bank Limited
Meezan Bank Limited
National Bank of Pakistan
United Bank Ltd

Source: KSE & AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

31 January 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

Economic Snapshot
End Month Data

Units

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

T-bill
3M

9.20

9.37

9.42

9.41

9.26

8.93

9.00

9.15

9.47

9.63

9.93

6M

9.32

9.46

9.44

9.42

9.16

9.01

9.20

9.35

9.68

9.88

10.02

12M

9.37

9.47

9.46

9.43

9.19

9.03

9.34

9.48

9.81

9.96

10.12

PIB 10Y

11.99

12.00

11.92

11.25

10.86

11.57

11.97

12.28

12.83

12.93

12.90

KIBOR 6M

9.43

9.54

9.58

9.60

9.39

9.08

9.15

9.29

9.55

9.52

10.13

Discount rate

9.50

9.50

9.50

9.50

9.00

9.00

9.00

9.50

9.50

10.00

10.00

Headline inflation

7.40

6.60

5.80

5.10

5.90

8.26

8.55

7.40

9.10

10.90

9.18

Core inflation

9.6

9.00

8.70

8.10

7.80

8.20

8.50

8.70

8.40

8.50

8.20

Food inflation

7.4

6.30

5.50

6.50

7.90

9.20

10.30

7.90

9.80

13.00

9.30

1,835

2,134

2,130

2,175

2,197

2,095

1,996

2,622

1,864

1,804

2,275

3,383

3,687

3,909

4,346

3,940

3,814

3,572

3,791

3,281

3,651

3,561

(1,548)

(1,553)

(1,779)

(2,171)

(1,743)

(1,719)

(1,576)

(1,169)

(1,417)

(1,847)

(1,286)

1,028

1,119

1,216

1,186

1,165

1,404

1,233

1,283

1,348

1,131

1,385

(596)

(513)

(354)

(346)

(163)

46

(575)

(574)

(166)

(572)

285

6,645

6,777

6,709

6,950

7,316

7,069

7,174

7,125

7,133 7,309.45 7,529.37

3,868

3,873

3,857

3,906

3,869

3,788

3,817

3,831

3,921 4,008.03 4,071.47

3,909

4,024

3,893

3,942

4,129

3,837

3,708

3,873

3,776 4,035.48 4,069.80

11.52

11.50

11.42

11.49

11.36

11.28

11.11

11.10

11.10

11.13

11.07

5.34

5.26

5.23

5.15

5.01

4.97

4.83

4.79

4.90

4.89

5.05

6.18

6.24

6.19

6.34

6.35

6.31

6.28

6.31

6.20

6.24

6.02

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

Inflation

External Indicators
Export (PBS)

US$ (mn)

Import (PBS)

US$ (mn)

Trade Deficit (PBS)

US$ (mn)

Home Remittances

US$ (mn)

Current Account

US$ (mn)

Banking Sector
Deposits

PkR (bn)

Advances

PkR (bn)

Investments

PkR (bn)

Weighted avg lending rate

Weighted avg deposit rate

Spread rate

Public Finance
Tax collection

PkR (mn)

Direct taxes

PkR (mn)

Indirect Taxes

PkR (mn)

140,264 190,357 153,199 173,268 267,608

48,743

78,649

48,462

60,982 128,889

91,521 111,708 104,737 112,286 138,719

Currency
Reserves (RHS)

US$ (mn)

USDPkR - Interbank

PkR/USD

12,936

12,250

11,812

11,474

11,020

10,287

9,998

9,995

9,525

8,238

8,168

98.16

98.42

98.48

98.52

98.94

101.90

104.51

105.24

106.89

107.56

107.13

Source: SBP, PBS & AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

31 January 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

Analyst Certification
We, the AKD Research Team, hereby individually & jointly certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject securities and issuers. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is,or will be, directly or indirectly, related
to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. We further certify that we do not have any beneficial holding of the
specific securities that we have recommendations on in this report.

AKD Research Team

Analyst

Tel no.

E-mail

Coverage

Naveed Vakil
Raza Jafri, CFA
Usman Zahid
Anum Dhedhi
Raza Hamdani
Bilal Alvi
Qasim Anwar
Hassan Quadri
Azher Ali Quli
Nasir Khan
Tariq Mehmood

+92 111 253 111 (692)

+92 111 253 111 (693)
+92 111 253 111 (693)
+92 111 253 111 (637)
+92 111 253 111 (693)
+92 111 253 111 (647)
+92 111 253 111 (680)
+92 111 253 111 (639)
+92 111 253 111 (646)
+92 111 253 111 (646)
+92 111 253 111 (643)

naveed.vakil@akdsecurities.net
raza.jafri@akdsecurities.net
usman.zahid@akdsecurities.net
anum.dhedhi@akdsecurities.net
raza.hamdani@akdsecurities.net
bilal.alvi@akdsecurities.net
qasim.anwar@akdsecurities.net
hassan.quadri@akdsecurities.net
azher.quli@akdsecurities.net
nasir.khan@akdsecurities.net
tariq.mehmood@akdsecurities.net

Director - Research & Business Development

Pakistan Economy & Commercial Banks
E&P, FMCGs & Fertilizer
Pakistan Economy
Fertilizer, Oil Marketing & Power
Textiles, Cements & Chemical
Technical Analysis
Research Production / Autos
Research Production
Research Production
Library Operations

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our research department in good faith. Such information has not been independently verified and we make no representation or warranty as to
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10