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IN THE NEWS
Currencies, Commodities & Indices Shipping Equities - Weekly Review Weekly Trading Statistics, by Knight Capital Dry Bulk Market - Weekly Highlights, by Intermodal Shipbrokers Weekly Tanker Market Opinion, by Poten & Partners Weekly Freight Rate & Asset Trends, by Intermodal Shipbrokers Tanker Market - Weekly Highlights, by Charles R. Weber Company Container Market - Weekly Highlights, by Braemar Seascope S&P Secondhand, Newbuilding & Demolition Markets, by Golden Destiny
SHIPPING MARKETS
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IN THE NEWS
period for an additional 11 to 14 months at a gross daily rate of $15,500. The new time charter contract is anticipated to contribute a minimum of about $8.5 million of gross revenues to the Company. Based on the latest redelivery dates, the Companys contracted revenue days currently stand at 94% in 2012, at 68% in 2013 and at 35% in 2014. Wednesday, June 20, 2012 TOP Ships Inc. Announces New Charter for M/V EVIAN TOP Ships Inc. announced that it entered into a bareboat agreement to charter out the M/V EVIAN up to 15 December 2014 at a daily rate of US$ 7,000. Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. Reaches Comprehensive Agreement With Lenders Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. announced that it has reached an agreement with a syndicate of its lenders led by Royal Bank of Scotland plc. This agreement resolves all outstanding issues with the Companys lenders and significantly improves the Companys position amid the ongoing, cyclical downturn in the shipping markets. Highlights of the agreement include the following: 1) Permanently waives any purported defaults or events of defaults. 2) $1,129,478,742 presently outstanding under the existing revolver will convert into a term loan, with a maturity set to December 31, 2015. Subject to certain conditions, the amendment provides an option to the Company to extend the maturity date an additional 18 months to June 30, 2017. 3) Eagle Bulk will receive a new liquidity facility in the aggregate amount of $20,000,000. 4). The amendment requires no fixed repayments of principal until maturity, and is subject to a quarterly sweep of cash in excess of $20,000,000. Thursday, June 21, 2012 Paragon Shipping Inc. Reports First Quarter 2012 Results Paragon Shipping Inc. announced its results for the three months ended March 31, 2012. Gross time charter revenue for the first quarter of 2012 was $13.2 million, compared to $29.0 million for the first quarter of 2011. Net income was $0.7 million, or $0.01 per basic and diluted share. EBITDA for the first quarter of 2012 was $6.6 million, compared to $17.7 million for the first quarter of 2011. The Company operated an average of 10.0 vessels during the first quarter of 2012, earning a TCE rate of $13,490 per day, compared to an average of 13.0 vessels during the first quarter of 2011, earning an average TCE rate of $24,109 per day. NewLead Holdings Ltd. Announces $75.0 Million Debt Reduction and $18.1 million Conversion of Debt to Equity NewLead Holdings Ltd. announced that the Company entered into an agreement with Piraeus Bank S.A. (Piraeus Bank) to proceed with the sale of the two tanker vessels, Hiona and Hiotissa, for an aggregate amount of $57.0 million and to convert, subject to satisfaction of certain conditions precedent bythe Company,$18.1 million debt into 22.1 million shares of NewLeads common stock. As a result of this transaction, NewLeadwill bereleased from all obligations under the Piraeus Bank credit facility. These transactions are expected to occur in the third quarter of 2012 and
Page 3
IN THE NEWS
amount of up to US$26.450 million. The purpose of this increase in the facility is to partially finance the acquisition cost of the m/v Melia, which was delivered to the Company on May 1, 2012. The initial purpose of the facility was to partially finance the acquisition cost of the m/v Leto, which was delivered to the Company on January 16, 2012. Diana Shipping Inc.s fleet currently consists of 28 dry bulk carriers (17 Panamax, 1 Post-Panamax, 8 Capesize and 2 Newcastlemax), as well as 2 new-building Ice Class dry bulk Panamax vessels expected to be delivered to the Company during the fourth quarter of 2013. As of today, the combined carrying capacity of our current fleet, excluding the two vessels not yet delivered, is approximately 3.2 million dwt with a weighted average age of 5.9 years.
0611_DVB-Anz_half-page_quer.indd 1
07.06.11 13:25
Page 4
IN THE NEWS
Last Closing Price (JUNE 22, 2012) $13.46 Annualized Dividend Yield 8.02%
ESEA
$0.04
$0.16
$1.19
13.45%
Ticker GPRT
Last Closing 2011 Total Price (JUNE 22, Annualized Dividend 2012) Dividend Yield 6.00 63.75 9.41%
*Board approved an eight percent (8%) dividend increase, beginning with the third quarter 2011 dividend, raising the quarterly dividend from $0.25 to $0.27 per common share.
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Page 5
KEY AGRICULTURAL & CONSUMER COMMODITIES Current Price Cocoa Coffee Corn Cotton Soybeans Sugar #11 Wheat 2,102.00 155.90 555.50 69.12 1,372.50 19.75 687.00 Price Last Week 2,247.00 152.00 506.00 71.02 1,314.00 20.01 651.25 % Change -6.45% 2.57% 9.78% -2.68% 4.45% -1.30% 5.49% KEY FUTURES Commodities Gas Oil Futures Gasoline RBOB Future Heating Oil Future Natural Gas Future WTI Crude Future Current Price 814.75 259.13 255.18 2.63 80.17 Price Last Week 851.50 270.17 264.65 2.47 84.03 % Change -4.32% -4.09% -3.58% 6.40% -4.59% YTD %Chg -13.94% -5.72% -16.01% -12.20% -22.13% 52 Week High 1,045.75 332.18 331.93 4.61 111.49 52 Wk Low 810 246.5 256.31 1.9 77.4 YTD %Chg -0.61% -31.38% -15.64% -27.85% 11.81% -19.42% 4.57% 52 Week High 3,300.00 288.85 673.5 103 1,400.00 26.04 871 52 Wk Low 2,031.00 150.1 499 64.61 1,115.75 19.24 629.5
Page 6
CAPITAL LINK MARITIME INDICES Index Capital Link Maritime Index Tanker Index Drybulk Index Container Index LNG/LPG Index Mixed Fleet Index MLP Index Symbol CLMI CLTI CLDBI CLCI CLLG CLMFI CLMLP 22-June-12 1,995.96 1,909.29 640.74 1,212.20 3,378.34 1,315.41 2,783.26 15-June-12 1,979.29 1,857.23 642.25 1,136.59 3,362.64 1,343.20 2,769.21 % Change 0.84% 2.80% -0.24% 6.65% 0.47% -2.07% 0.51% 4-Jan-12 2,185.20 1,888.57 661.81 1,112.58 3,810.14 1,030.58 2,755.12 YTD % Change -8.66% 1.10% -3.18% 8.95% -11.33% 27.64% 1.02%
BALTIC INDICES Index Baltic Dry Index Baltic Capesize Index Baltic Panamax Index Baltic Supramax Index Baltic Handysize Index Baltic Dirty Tanker Index Baltic Clean Tanker Index Symbol BDIY BCIY BPIY BSI BHSI BDTI BCTI 22-June-12 978 1,155 1,048 1,179 705 661 571 15-June-12 924 1,148 1,065 1,061 653 682 575 % Change 5.84% 0.61% -1.60% 11.12% 7.96% -3.08% -0.70% 4-Jan-12 1,624 2,955 1,619 1,158 570 783 762 YTD % Change -39.78% -60.91% -35.27% 1.81% 23.68% -15.58% -25.07%
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1.15 1.10 1.05 1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70
S&P 500
Russell 2000
*SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
Page 8
New York | Washington DC | London | Paris | Frankfurt | Hong Kong | Shanghai | friedfrank.com
Percent Change of Major Indexes for the Week Ending Friday, June 22, 2012
Symbol SOX COMPX NDX RUT TRAN TRANX RUA RUI SPX INDU Close 378.65 2892.42 2585.53 775.07 5083.05 2188.22 787.06 735.68 1335.02 12644.41 Net Gain 3.50 19.62 14.30 3.75 -8.19 -8.85 -3.44 -3.78 -7.82 -122.76 Percent Gain 0.93% 0.68% 0.56% 0.49% -0.16% -0.40% -0.44% -0.51% -0.58% -0.96%
Top Upside Momentum (Issues with the greatest 100 day upside momentum*)
Symbol Close NEWL DCIX GSL DAC GASS CPLP 1.39 7.4 3.19 4.35 5.9 7.38 SFL 14.92 Weekly % Change 26.36% -1.19% -0.67% -1.85% -3.97% 5.92% 10.21% 4.83% 50-Day % Change -61.81% 14.34% 29.00% -5.62% 14.78% 1.72% 7.34% -3.86%
Top Downside Momentum (Issues with the greatest 100 day downward momentum*)
Symbol Close EXM EGLE GNK ESEA VLCCF TRMD DHT TNP GLBS FRO 0.57 3.61 2.93 1.1 8.16 0.34 0.62 4.9 3.13 4.23 Weekly % Change -10.94% 25.35% -8.44% -7.56% -1.57% 6.25% -4.62% -2.39% 9.44% 1.93% 50-Day % Change -67.61% -87.18% -46.82% -39.62% -32.47% -39.29% -22.55% -35.41% -35.89% -39.57%
SSW 17.48
*Momentum: (100D % change) + 1.5*(50D % change) + 2.0*(10D % change) for each stock then sort group in descending order and report the top 10.
been standardized to 20 trading days) Prior Friday Net Symbol % Change Close Close Change TOPS STNG DAC TEU SSW SFL DCIX GASS NMM SBLK 1.47 5.55 4 7.29 16.45 14.26 7.09 5.67 13.09 0.71 Symbol DCIX TOO ALEX SFL SSW GASS CPLP TGP SB CMRE 1.71 6.14 4.35 7.82 17.48 14.92 7.4 5.9 13.49 0.73 52W High 7.73 29.79 52.79 16.49 19.68 6.72 8.55 42.26 7.40 16.73 0.24 0.59 0.35 0.53 1.03 0.66 0.31 0.23 0.40 0.02 16.33% 10.63% 8.75% 7.27% 6.26% 4.63% 4.37% 4.06% 3.06% 2.80% % Away -4.27% -5.87% -8.22% -9.52% -11.16% -12.20% -13.71% -14.39% -17.66% -19.53%
been standardized to 20 trading days) Prior Friday Net Change % Change Close Close 0.91 3.85 1.7 4.98 9.58 1.26 7.98 31.87 6.52 3.87 Symbol VLCCF EXM ESEA DHT GNK SBLK TNP DSX PRGN BALT 0.57 3.13 1.39 4.23 8.16 1.1 7.28 29.38 6.09 3.63 -0.34 -0.72 -0.31 -0.75 -1.42 -0.16 -0.70 -2.49 -0.43 -0.24 52W Low 8.10 0.56 1.08 0.60 2.78 0.69 4.55 6.59 0.52 3.11 -37.36% -18.70% -18.24% -15.06% -14.82% -12.78% -8.77% -7.81% -6.60% -6.20% % Away 0.74% 1.79% 1.85% 3.33% 5.40% 5.67% 7.69% 10.47% 13.46% 16.72%
*The Volume Run Rate is calculated by dividing the current week's volume by the average volume over the last 20 weeks. For example, a run rate of 2.0 means the stock traded twice its average volume.
ANW - Aegean Marine Petroleum Network Inc; BALT - Baltic Trading Ltd; CPLP - Capital Product Partners LP; CMRE- Costamere, Inc.; DAC - Danaos Corp; DCIX Diana Containerships; DHT - DHT Maritime Inc; DRYS DryShips Inc; DSX - Diana Shipping Inc; EGLE - Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc; ESEA - Euroseas Ltd; EXM - Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd; FREE FreeSeas; FRO - Frontline Ltd; GASS - StealthGas Inc; GLBS Globus Maritime Limited ; GLNG - Golar LNG Ltd; GMLP Golar LNG Partners; GNK - Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd; GSL - Global Ship Lease Inc; NAT - Nordic American Tanker Shipping; NEWL - NewLead Holdings Ltd; NM - Navios Maritime Holdings Inc; NMM - Navios Maritime Partners LP; NNA - Navios Maritime Acquisition Corp; OSG - Overseas Shipholding Group Inc; PRGN - Paragon Shipping Inc; SB - Safe Bulkers Inc; SBLK - Star Bulk Carriers Corp; SFL Ship Finance International Ltd; SHIP - Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp; SSW - Seaspan Corp; STNG - Scorpio Tankers Inc; TEU - Box Ships Inc; TGP - Teekay LNG Partners LP; TK - Teekay Corp; TNK - Teekay Tankers Ltd; TNP - Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd; TOO - Teekay Offshore Partners LP; TOPS - TOP Ships Inc; TRMD - D/S Torm A/S; VLCCF - Knightsbridge Tankers Ltd
The following are the 43 members of this group: Symbol Name: ALEX - Alexander & Baldwin Inc;
DISCLAIMER This communication has been prepared by Knight Capital Group, L.P. The information set forth
above has been compiled from third party sources believed by Knight to be reliable, but Knight does not represent or warrant its accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information and Knight, and its affiliates, are not responsible for losses or damages arising out of errors or omissions, delays in the receipt of this information, or any actions taken in reliance thereon. The information provided herein is not intended to provide a sufficient or partial basis on which to make an investment decision. The communication is for your general information only and is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or product. Knight and its affiliates most likely make a market in the securities mentioned in this document. Historical price(s) or value(s) are as of the date and, if applicable, time indicated. Knight does not accept any responsibility to update any information contained in this communication. Knight and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this material, may, from time to time, have long or short positions in, or buy or sell (on a principal basis or otherwise) the securities mentioned in this communication which may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Questions regarding the information presented herein or a request for a copy of this document should be referred to your Knight representative. Member NASD/SIPC. For additional information about Knight Capital Group, Inc. (NYSE Euronext: KCG), please visit www.knight.com.
Page 12
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September 2010 Knight Capital Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Knight Equity Markets, L.P. and Knight Capital Markets LLC are off-exchange liquidity providers and members of FINRA and SIPC. To learn about Knight Capital Group, Inc. (NYSE Euronext: KCG) go to knight.com.
SHIPPING MARKETS
Intermodal
Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. 17th km Ethniki Odos Athens-Lamia & 3 Agrambelis Street, 145 64 N. Kifisia, Athens - Greece Phone: +30 210 6293300 Website: www.intermodal.gr
Index
With Chinese stockpiles still holding at fairly high levels for both coal and iron ore, things are looking fairly difficult for the long-term for the large vessel size segments. Things were a touch more optimistic for the smaller sizes which are likely to benefit from the positive demand expectations of grain shipments as many countries such as India already show a firm interest in increasing their import volumes this year.
3,500 3,000 2,500
Index
Capesize
25 20
no. Fixtures
15 10 5 0
Baltic Dry
160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
no. Fixtures
closing. (Last Fridays the 15th of June closing value was recorded at 924 points).
p The Baltic Dry Index closed on Friday the 22nd of June at 978 points with a weekly gain of 54 points or 5.8% over previous weeks
week comparison, as Last Fridays the 15th of June closing value was 1,148 points). It is worth noting that the annual average of 2011 for the Cape Index is currently calculated at 1,516 points, while the average for the year 2010 was 2,237 points.
CAPESIZE MARKET - p The Baltic Cape Index closed on Friday the 22nd of June at 1,155 points with a weekly gain of 7 points. For this week we monitor a 0.6% change on a week-on-
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SHIPPING MARKETS
No. of Fixtures Highest Fixture Lowest Fixture
6 3
Period Charter
$11,100 $9,500
$4,250 $2,000
Trip Charter
37 47
Period Charter
$17,000 $21,500
Trip Charter
$10,050 $9,500
$4,250 $3,500
$12,750 $7,925
For Week 25 we have recorded a total of 6 timecharter fixtures in the Capesize sector, 5 for period charter averaging $10,050 per day, while 1 trip charters were reported this week with a daily average of $4,250 per day. This weeks fixture that received the lowest daily hire was the M/V MINERAL CHINA, 171448 dwt, built 2003, dely Gijon ppt , redely Fos, $4250, Hanjin, for a trip via Port Cartier 2250$ improved from last week, and the fixture with the highest daily hire was the M/V NAVIOS ANTARES, 160053 dwt, built 2010, dely PG in d/c 3/7 July , redely worldwide, $11100, Vitol, for a 5/9 months trading 1600$ improved from last week. The BCI is showing a 0.6% rise on a weekly comparison, a -25.0% loss on a 1 month basis, a -15.6% loss on a 3 month basis, a -67.7% loss on a 6 month basis and a -43.5% loss on a 12 month basis.
For Week 25 we have recorded a total of 37 timecharter fixtures in the Panamax sector, 2 for period charter averaging $12,750 per day, while 35 trip charters were reported this week with a daily average of $11,391 per day. The daily earnings differential for the Panamaxes, that we calculate from all this weeks reported fixtures, i.e. the difference between the lowest and highest reported fixture for this week was reduced, and this weeks fixture that received the lowest daily hire was the M/V PONTOVREMON, 76318 dwt, built 2001, dely Lianyungang 22/28 July , redely Indonesia, $5750, Oceans 21, for a trip via NoPac 750$ improved from last week, and the fixture with the highest daily hire was the M/V SHIN YO, 76863 dwt, built 2006, dely US Gulf end June/ely July , redely Singapore-Japan, $17000, Golden Ocean, for a trip, 700000 bb -4500$ reduced from last week. The BPI is showing a -1.6% loss on a weekly comparison, a -11.6% loss on a 1 month basis, a 1.2% rise on a 3 month basis, a -41.0% loss on a 6 month basis and a -34.1% loss on a 12 month basis.
Panamax
3,500
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Index
2,500
2,500 2,000
Index
Supramax
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
no. Fixtures
1,500
no Fixtures
500
points on a weekly comparison. It is worth noting that last Fridays the 15th of June saw the Panamax index close at 1,065 points. The week-on-week change for the Panamax index is calculated to be -1.6%, while the yearly average for the Baltic Panamax Index for this running year is calculated at 1,104 points while the average for 2010 was 1,749 points.
PANAMAX MARKET - q The Baltic Panamax Index closed on Friday the 22nd of June with a loss at 1,048 points having lost -17
SUPRAMAX & HANDYMAX MARKET - p The Baltic Supramax Index closed on Friday the 22nd of June at 1,179 points up with a weekly gain of 118 points or 11.1% . The Baltic Supramax index on a weekly comparison is with an upward trend as last Fridays the 15th of June closing value was 1,061 points. The annual average of the BSI is recorded at 938 points while the average for 2010 was 1,377 points.
Page 15
SHIPPING MARKETS
No. of Fixtures Highest Fixture Lowest Fixture
28 30
Period Charter
$26,000 $28,000
Highest Fixture
Lowest Fixture
Week this week last week Week this week last week
$4,000 $2,000
2 6
Period Charter
$12,500 $25,000 $0 $0
Trip Charter
$11,180 $11,217
$12,685 $13,479
Trip Charter
For Week 25 we have recorded a total of 28 timecharter fixtures in the Supramax & Handymax sector, 5 for period charter averaging $11,180 per day, while 23 trip charters were reported this week with a daily average of $12,685 per day. The minimum vs maximum daily rate differential as analyzed from our fixtures database was overall reduced and from the reported fixtures we see that this weeks fixture that received the lowest daily hire was the M/V SHROPSHIRE, 57000 dwt, built 2009, dely Tianjin spot , redely SE Asia, $4000, Chart Not Rep, for a trip 2000$ improved from last week, and the fixture with the highest daily hire was the M/V NAVIOS APOLLON, 52073 dwt, built 2000, dely USEC spot , redely Passero, $26000, Pacbasin, for a trip via E Med -2000$ reduced from last week. The BSI is showing a 11.1% rise on a weekly comparison, a 5.3% rise on a 1 month basis, a 13.9% rise on a 3 month basis, a -1.2% loss on a 6 month basis and a -9.7% loss on a 12 month basis.
For Week 25 we have recorded a total of 2 timecharter fixtures in the Handysize sector, 0 for period charter averaging $0 per day, while 8 trip charters were reported this week with a daily average of $11,750 per day. The minimum vs maximum daily rate differential as analyzed from our fixtures database was overall reduced and this weeks fixture that received the lowest daily hire was the M/V THOMAS C, 34372 dwt, built 2011, dely Indonesia spot , redely China, $11000, Chart Not Rep, for a trip 3000$ improved from last week and the fixture with the highest daily hire was the M/V THOMAS C, 34372 dwt, built 2011, dely Indonesia spot , redely China, $11000, Chart Not Rep, for a trip -14000$ reduced from last week. The BHI is showing a 8.0% change on a weekly comparison, a 8.6% rise on a 1 month basis, a 27.9% rise on a 3 month basis, a 19.9% rise on a 6 month basis and a -1.0% loss on a 12 month basis.
All Baltic Dry Indices, 1 day, 1week , 1 month, 3 months, 6 months and 12 months % changes based on last Fridays closing figures.
INDEX 1 DAY 1 WK 1 MO 3 MO 6 MO 1Y
1,000
Handysize
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
750
Index
no. Fixtures
500
250
HANDYSIZE MARKET - p The Baltic Handysize Index closed on Friday the 22nd of June with an upward trend at 705 points with a weekly gain of 52 points and a percentage change of 8.0%. It is noted that last Fridays the 15th of June closing value was 653 points and the average for 2011 is calculated at 533 points while the average for 2010 was 718 points.
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SHIPPING MARKETS
Contributed by
US Crude Runs
2,500 2,000 1,500
kbpd
yoy Change
Jan Feb
Mar Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
-1,000 Jan-09
Jan-10
PADD3
Jan-11
PADD2 Other
Jan-12
Source: EIA, Poten As shown in the above chart, US crude inventories have continued to rise in May and June versus normal seasonal patterns, in which crude stocks peak in early-May, before higher summer crude runs and stable imports allow inventories to decline at an average 200 kbpd rate (or 26 MB overall). This week, however, crude prices extended losses after the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) reported that commercial crude inventories rose by 2.9 MB, to 387.3 MB, versus market expectations for a 1.1 MB draw. The stock levels are at 22-year highs and 40 MB above the five-year average, exaggerated by the 1.0 MB (34 kbpd) rise in Cushing stocks during the past month, to 47.8 MB, despite the mid-May start-up of the 150 kbpd reversal of the Seaway pipeline. Although US product demand year-to-date through May has been 337 kbpd lower year-over-year (yoy), US crude runs have actually risen, jumping by 312 kbpd yoy during the first five months of 2012. As shown in the chart on the following page, USG refiners in PADD3 have led this refining growth, showing a 210 kbpd yoy rise, partially on higher gasoil export demand. Midwest (PADD2) refiners, enjoying higher margins on depressed WTI prices, have also supported crude runs, by lifting their inputs by 178 kbpd yoy through May.
Source: EIA, Poten Still, crude stocks continue to rise, despite virtually no annual increase in crude imports. The culprit, of course, is the dramatic rise in US crude production, with surging shale oil output contributing to a 642 kbpd yoy jump in total production during 1q12. North Dakota production was 210 kbpd higher yoy during the first quarter, driven by rising Bakken output, but onshore Texas production leapt by 418 kbpd yoy during the period, from the Eagle Ford shale and other fields. With rising active oil rig counts, the market anticipates additional gains from shale oil, while offshore Gulf of Mexico output continues to recover from the 234 kbpd yoy declines of 2011 and should no longer serve as a drag on US output. With US production poised to rise from todays 6.3 mbpd level to 6.5 mbpd by year end, inventories would continue to grow without some corrective action to crude imports. Some of this action is coming from an unexpected source, as Saudi Arabia has halted shipments of crude to Motivas Port Arthur, Texas refinery, which has shut down its recent 325 kbpd expansion for several months due to corrosion problems. Motiva would have built up at least 25 days worth of crude inventories before the start-up of the expansion, or 8 MB. Indeed, the 112 kbpd yoy jump in Saudi Arabian imports to Port Arthur during 1q12 and the larger-thanseasonal jump in overall PADD3 crude stocks were consistent with this. Following the start-up issues and fire at the new unit during early-June, PADD3 crude inventories could be carrying as much as 5 MB of unexpected crude that Motiva should have processed. Although the 190 MB of PADD3 crude inventories are at a threeyear high and are 7% above five-year averages, they are not excessive relative to increased crude runs. As illustrated in the chart below, PADD3 crude inventories, at 24.7 days of forward
Page 17
SHIPPING MARKETS
stocks will continue until Seaway and other outlets develop. In the near-term, however, the US refiners annual practice of cutting year-end stocks for tax and accounting purposes could influence import demand. During the past three years, year-end crude stocks have closed near 22 days of forward crude runs. If year-end PADD2 stocks remain at an elevated 30 days and total US crude inventories finish 2012 at a higher level of 23 days, then crude imports would have to drop dramatically under the current crude production and crude run regime. In fact, crude runs would need to drop to 8.5-8.6 mbpd during 2h12, or 300 kbpd lower yoy, but would still leave crude stocks at 354 MB, or 7% higher yoy, by year end. This drop in US imports would drive an 8% yoy plunge in US crude tonne-mile demand during 2h12. After all, excess oil inventories cannot continue forever and will achieve some sort of mean reversion. Tanker market participants have been anticipating a negative tonne-mile impact from rising US shale oil production, but have been sheltered from its effects through inventory building. That will not continue.
28 26 24 22 20 18 16
Jan-07 Jan-08
USG (PADD3)
Jan-09
Jan-10
Midwest (PADD2)
Jan-11
Jan-12
Total US
Source: EIA, Poten Ultimately, refiners will resolve this inventory rise by moving trapped PADD2 barrels to PADD3 for processing, but elevated Cushing
Poten Tanker Market Opinions are published by the Commodity Consulting & Analytics department at Poten & Partners. For feedback on this opinion or to receive this via email every week please send an email to tankerresearch@poten.com. For information on the services and research products offered by our Marine Projects & Consulting department or to contact our tanker brokers please visit our website at www.poten.com.
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Page 18
SHIPPING MARKETS
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SHIPPING MARKETS
Week 24 $/day
16,760 6,365 25,060 26,737 18,787 27,346 13,670 30,756 24,137 18,638 10,675 7,786 7,900 16,588 19,838 17,875 22,117
$/day
23,145 6,429 26,585 23,308 15,750 27,084 14,772 22,397 24,830 14,224 13,767 10,227 8,439 16,217 20,696 18,746 17,182
WS points
41 31 45 75 70 80 90 115 95 113 90 100 120 140 125 125 145
%
7% -3% 0% -7% -7% -3% 0% -15% 0% -11% 6% 5% 0% -2% 0% 0% -12%
2012 $/day
32,943 8,336 42,286 29,069 18,445 23,343 13,427 15,376 20,402 14,569 5,123 5,672 11,091 16,978 16,545 14,382 15,684
2011 $/day
18,217 2,504 25,714 25,125 13,373 14,815 12,726 13,577 18,604 8,240 10,467 7,768 11,022 18,458 11,266 9,676 10,700
Contributed by
Intermodal
Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. 17th km Ethniki Odos Athens-Lamia & 3 Agrambelis Street, 145 64 N. Kifisia, Athens - Greece Phone: +30 210 6293300 Website: www.intermodal.gr
WEEK25 - 2012
Aframax
Suezmax
VLCC
May-12
65.0 46.0 31.0 26.0 26.0
%
0.0% 2.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0%
2012
64.5 46.4 33.0 28.0 25.7
2011
77.6 54.4 39.1 35.2 28.4
2010
87.2 62.6 44.7 38.8 26.5
Dirty
Clean
2012
22,290 27,470 17,030 20,680 13,960 16,220 13,010 14,330 14,330 14,870 12,600 13,300
2011
25,197 31,681 19,837 23,830 15,707 18,335 14,995 16,263 14,738 12,471 13,412 13,918
Vessel 5yrs old Capesize Panamax Supramax Handysize 170k 73K 52k 29K
Jun-12
35.0 23.5 21.5 18.0
May-12
35.0 23.5 21.5 18.0
%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2012
36.2 24.8 22.5 19.9
2011
43.5 31.3 25.6 23.5
2010
57.4 39.0 30.2 26.2
26,500 29,500 19,000 21,500 14,000 16,250 13,000 14,500 14,000 15,000 13,000 13,750
26,500 29,500 18,500 21,500 14,000 16,250 13,000 14,500 14,250 15,000 13,000 13,750
Week 24
46.0 26.8 25.3 21.6 95.5 58.0 50.0 42.0 34.0 71.0 62.0 44.0
%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2012
46 27 25 22 95 58 50 42 33 70 61 44
2011
53 33 30 25 102 64 54 45 36 73 64 46
2010
58 35 31 27 103 66 55 46 36 72 65 46
WEEK25 - 2012
170K 6mnt TC 170K 1yr TC 170K 3yr TC 70K 6mnt TC 70K 1yr TC
www.intermodal.gr Intermodal 11,375 Shipbrokers - Capital -2% Link - Dry Bulk Report Week 25 25 June 2012 11,625 -250 Market 11,845 14,500 70K 3yr TC
52K 6mnt TC 52K 1yr TC 52K 3yr TC 45k 6mnt TC 45k 1yr TC 45k 3yr TC 30K 6mnt TC 30K 1yr TC 30K 3yr TC
13,500 11,000 11,500 11,000 9,750 10,250 9,500 9,250 9,750 13,250 11,000 11,500 10,500 9,500 10,250 9,000 9,000 9,750 2% 0% 0% 5% 3% 0% 6% 3% 0% 250 0 0 500 250 0 500 250 0 11,960 11,160 12,010 9,990 9,410 10,170 8,565 8,684 9,960 15,587 14,308 14,046 13,416 12,450 12,403 11,712 11,787 12,044
Gas
Week 25
Week 24
Diff
2012
2011
Tankers
www.intermodal.gr Intermodal Shipbrokers - Capital Link - Dry Bulk Market Report Week 25 25 June 2012
Page 20
SHIPPING MARKETS
Spot Market VLCC AG>USG 280 kMT AG>SPORE 270 kMT AG>JPN 265 kMT WAFR>USG 260 kMT WAFR>CHINA 260 kMT SUEZMAX WAFR>USAC 130 kMT B.SEA>MED 135 kMT CBS>USG 130 kMT AFRAMAX N.SEA>UKC 80 kMT CBS>USG 70 kMT TRK>MED 80 kMT PANAMAX CBS>USAC 50 kMT CONT>TA 55 kMT ECU>USWC 50 kMT CPP CONT>TA 37 kMT CBS>USAC 38 kMT USG>TA 38 kMT AG>JPN 35 kMT SPOR>JPN 30 kMT
WS 30.0 40.0 40.0 42.5 41.5 70.0 75.0 70.0 95.0 110.0 115.0 135.0 120.0 175.0 120.0 115.0 62.5 118.0 118.0 90.0 100.0
TCE $4,300 $14,800 $14,600 $17,800 $16,200 $19,200 $19,800 $16,200 $20,700 $16,500 $31,000 $19,300 $16,100 $30,300 $7,100 $7,500 $(3,500) $6,600 $4,400 $14,100 $9,400
WS 30.0 42.0 42.0 43.0 43.0 62.5 70.0 67.5 95.0 97.5 95.0 125.0 122.5 170.0 110.0 115.0 60.0 119.0 121.0 91.0 103.0
TCE $6,700 $20,000 $20,000 $20,900 $20,800 $15,700 $16,700 $15,900 $21,900 $12,700 $20,100 $17,200 $18,300 $29,700 $5,800 $8,300 $(3,100) $7,800 $5,500 $16,000 $11,600
WEEK 24
WEEK 25
Maintaining Middle East cargo programs in the excess 130/ month region remains imperative in limiting further VLCC earnings downside during 2H12 due to impact of Middle East positions on both ex-Middle East and ex-West Africa rates (with the latter tending to track sentiment in the former). With the unchanged target implying a median between those who called for a reduction and Saudis calls for a hike, one expectation can be that Saudi Arabia will maintain recent production rates, to the benefit of VLCC earnings.
AG>JPN 75 kMT AG>JPN 55 kMT Time Charter Market $/day (theoretical) VLCC Suezmax Aframax Panamax MR
Page 21
SHIPPING MARKETS
correction from the last done rate. The recent lack of activity in the Caribbean/USG area has led to a longer list of natural positions, which has formed the basis of eroded rates. Stronger activity will be necessary in the region to clear through tonnage and allow rates to pare recent losses. Suezmax The Atlantic Suezmax market was under negative pressure this week on the back of slower fresh activity and a gain in available tonnage. The WAFR-USAC route dropped 7.5 points to ws62.5. Rates could come under further negative pressure during the week ahead in the absence of a pickup in fresh activity.
Aframax Rates in the Caribbean Aframax market opened the week with a correction swift correction in rates. The CBS-USG route ultimately declined 12.5 points to conclude at ws97.5. With both charterers and owners now seemingly content with present levels, there is little to suggest a change in direction during the start of the week ahead. Panamax The Caribbean Panamax market was under negative pressure this week on the back of a modest expansion in availability and a generally lacklustre pace of fresh activity. The CBS-USAC route concluded the week down 10 points at ws125. CPP The Caribbean MR market saw a lackluster week whilst rates generally held stable at the ws115 level for CBS-USAC voyages which after accounting for lower bunker prices offered owners an 11% gain in TCE returns. Ex-USG activity levels were sustained this week and ultimately saw only modest rate losses which, after factoring for lower bunker prices offered only modestly unchanged returns. USG positions remain out of step with fresh demand whilst forward prospects have been recently undermined by issues at Motivas Port Arthur refinery. The European market was under negative pressure with rates correcting by 10 points to conclude at ws110. Units coming free off voyages from the USG outweighed fresh demand which failed to experience an uptick in demand for cargoes to Latin America to replace those previously contracted from Motivas Port Arthur refinery.
Page 22
Braemar Seascope Containers Container MarketContainers - Weekly Highlights Braemar Seascope Chartering Chartering The Monday Morning Container Briefing
The Monday MorningMorning Container Briefing Briefing The Monday Container
+/Index +/4.30 0.00 0.00 4.82 0.00 +/ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Vessel (Teu/Hmg) Index Vessel (Teu/Hmg) 510/285 teu (GL) 15.5 k Morning 510/285 teu (GL) 15.5 3.61 k The Monday Vessel (Teu/Hmg) 700/440 teu (GL) 17.5 k (GL)Index 700/440 teu 17.5 k 4.30 3.61 0.00 0.00 Container Briefing 510/285teu teu (GL) 15.5 k (G) 16 750/415 (G) 16 k teu 3.61 750/415 k 4.82 700/440 teu (GL) 1,000/650 teu (G) 17.5 k 4.30 0.00 1,000/650 teu (G)5.20 17.5 k +/Vessel (Teu/Hmg) Index 0.00 5.20 750/415 (G) 16 k k teu3.61 1,100/715 teu (G) 19 4.82 0.00 1,100/715 (G)6.22 19 k 0.00 510/285 teu teu (GL) 15.5 k 0.00 6.22 1,000/650 teu (G)20 17.5 k 4.30 1,350/925 teu (G) 5.20 0.00 1,350/925 (G)4.62 20 k 0.00 700/440 teu (GL) 17.5 k k teu 0.00 4.62
London NW1 5BT United Kingdom
Capital Link Shipping Weekly Markets Report Braemar Seascope Containers Braemar Seascope Containers
SHIPPING MARKETS
18th June 2012 18th June 2012 18th June 2012
Contributed becoming by increasingly divided between older less economical tonnage, ton becoming increasingly divided between older less economical Chartering
18th June 2012 and modernand higher specification more economical units. modern higher specification more economical units. Braemar Seascope
with the glut of tonnage lying spot in the spot Far East. Enquiry here on thehere o with the glut of tonnage lying in the Far East. Enquiry Braemar Seascope Containersbecoming whole remains low with the only significant respite emanating from increasingly divided between older less economical tonnage, whole remains low with the only significant respite emanating The 1,700teu sector continues to pose problems to owners specifically
The 1,700teu sector continues pose economical problems to owners to specifically Chartering The 1,700teu sectorto continues to pose problems owners specif 35 Cosway Street and modern higher specification more units.
1,100/715 teu 1918 kMorning The Briefing 1,600/1,150 teu kteu 6.22 0.00 1,600/1,150 (GL) 18Container k 0.00 750/415 teu Monday (G) 16(G) k(GL) 5.41 0.00 5.41 0.00 4.82 1,350/925 (G) 20 k teu 1,700/1,125 teu (G) 19.5 k5.20 4.62 0.00 1,700/1,125 (G) 19.5 k 1,000/650 teu teu (G) 17.5 k 4.92 0.00 4.92 0.00 0.00 1,600/1,150 teu (GL) 18 k 1,740/1,300 teu (G) k6.22 5.41 0.00 1,740/1,300 teu (G) 20.5 k 0.00 1,100/715 teu (G) 19 k 20.5 5.14 0.00 5.14 0.00 Vessel (Teu/Hmg) +/1,700/1,125 teu (G) 19.5 k4.62 2,000/1,600 teu (G) kIndex 4.92 0.00 2,000/1,600 teu (G) 21 k 1,350/925 teu (G) 20 k 21 1.97 0.00 1.97 0.00 0.00 510/285 teu (GL) 15.5 k 1,740/1,300 teu (G) 20.5 k5.41 3.61 0.00 2,500/1,900 teu (G) 5.14 0.00 2,500/1,900 (G) 22 k 1,600/1,150 teu (GL) 1822 k k teu 3.65 0.00 3.65 0.00 0.00 700/440 teu (GL) 17.5 k 21 2,000/1,600 teu (G) 4.30 2,800/2,000 teu 22 kteu 1.97 0.00 2,800/2,000 (GL) 22 k 0.00 1,700/1,125 teu (G) (GL) 19.5 kk 3.31 0.00 3.31 0.00 4.92 0.00 750/415 teu (G) 16 k (GL) 2,500/1,900 teu (G) 22 4.82 0.00 3,500/2,500 teu 23 kteu 3.65 0.00 3,500/2,500 (GL) 23 k 1,740/1,300 teu (G) 20.5 kk 2.94 0.00 2.94 0.00 5.14 0.00 1,000/650 teuteu (G) 17.5 k k 24 2,800/2,000 teu (GL) 22k k 5.20 4,250/2,800 teu (GL) 3.31 0.00 4,250/2,800 teu (GL) 24 k 0.00 2,000/1,600 (G) 21 2.76 0.00 2.76 0.00 1.97 0.00 1,100/715 teu (G) teu 19 k 3,500/2,500 (GL) 6.22 0.00 2.94 0.00 2,500/1,900 teu (G) 22 k 23 k Index Total 58.87 0.00 Index Total 58.87 0.00 3.65 0.00 1,350/925 teuteu (G) teu 20 k 4,250/2,800 (GL) 24 k 4.62 0.00 2.76 0.00 2,800/2,000 (GL) 22 k 3.31 0.00 1,600/1,150 teu (GL) 18 k 5.41 0.00 Index Total 58.87 3,500/2,500 teu (GL) 23 k 2.94 0.00 Themonths BOX Index (BOXi) 58.87 The container market continued much 0.00 the pace week, The BOX Index (BOXi) 58.87 The container marketat continued atsame much the this same pace with this week, with With the quieter summer very quickly approaching, it would 120 1,700/1,125 teu (G) 19.5 k 120 4.92 0.00 4,250/2,800 teu (GL) 24 k our BOXi showing no movement at all as fixing appear to be 2.76 no 0.00 our BOXi showing movement at alllevels as fixing levels appear to be that the market will continue along this subdued pattern even appear 1,740/1,300 teu (G) 20.5 k 5.14 0.00 moving sideways. moving sideways. lines pushing for further freight increases Index 58.87 at 0.00 The BOX Indexrate (BOXi) 58.87during the coming The Total container market continued much the same pace this week, with with 100 100 120 2,000/1,600 teu (G) 21 k no 1.97 at 0.00 our BOXi showing movement all as fixing levels appear to be weeks.
some Asian Liners coming forth with some interest for interest bangkokmax and modern higher more economical units. some Asian Liners coming forth some forthe bangko with the glut of specification tonnage lying spot in the Far with East. Enquiry here on type vessels. Phone: +44 (0) 20 7535 2650 type vessels. whole remains low with the only significant respite emanating from Website: www.braemarseascope.com The 1,700teu sector continues pose with problems owners specifically 18th June 2012 some Asian Liners comingtoforth someto interest for bangkokmax With the quieter summer quickly approaching, it would with the glut of tonnage lyingmonths spot in very themonths Far East. Enquiry here on the With the quieter summer very quickly approaching, it w type vessels. appear thatappear the willonly continue along this subdued pattern even whole remains lowmarket with significant respite emanating from that the market will continue along this subdued pattern Chartering with lines pushing forpushing further freight rate increases during the it coming some Asian coming forth with some interest for bangkokmax with lines for further freight rate increases during With the Liners quieter summer months very quickly approaching, wouldthe co type vessels. weeks. becoming increasingly divided between older less economical tonnage, weeks. appear that the market will continue along this subdued pattern even and modern higher specification more economical units. during the coming with lines pushing for further freight rate increases With the quieter summer months very quickly approaching, it would weeks. appear that the market will continue along this pattern even The 1,700teu sector continues to pose problems to subdued owners specifically withthe lines pushing for further freight rate increases duringhere the on coming with glut of tonnage lying spot in the Far East. Enquiry the weeks. whole remains low with the only significant respite emanating from some Asian Liners coming forth with some interest for bangkokmax type vessels.
and supply is outpaced by demand in the short term. We have ourdries BOXi showing no movement at all as levels appear to beand dries and supply is outpaced by demand in the short term. We have Post-panamax tonnage continued with afixing fair amount of enquiry 3,500/2,500 teu (GL) 23 k operator 2.94 reportedly 0.00 subletting moving sideways. noted one Taiwanese a 6,500teu unit for a unit for 60 noted one Taiwanese operator reportedly subletting a 6,500teu a 60 80 daily hire rates rose gently upwards in this sector as tonnage availability 100 4,250/2,800 (GL) 24 kat period of teu 10 months period of 10US$27,500/day. months US$27,500/day. 2.76 by at 0.00in the short term. We have dries and supply is outpaced demand Post-panamax tonnage continued with a fair amount aof enquiry and 40 Index Total 58.87 reportedly 0.00 noted one Taiwanese operator subletting 6,500teu unit for a 40 60 80 a The consensus for second half 2012 seems to be a mixed bag, with abag, with daily hire rates rose gently upwards in this sector as tonnage availability The consensus for second half 2012 seems to be a mixed period of 10 months at US$27,500/day. dries and supply is outpaced byto demand into the short term. We have number of owners looking get firm periods well into 2013, the with the number of owners looking get firm periods well with into 2013, 20 20 40 hope of securing higher rates for longer periods, whilst charterers are noted one Taiwanese operator reportedly subletting a 6,500teu unit for a The BOX Index (BOXi) 58.87 The container market continued at much the same pace this week, with hope of securing higher rates for longer periods, whilst charterers are 60 The consensus for second half 2012 seems to be a mixed bag, with a 120 still pushing for flexibility in their charters. period of 10 months at US$27,500/day. our BOXi showing no looking movement at all as fixing levels appear towith be the pushing for flexibility inperiods their charters. number of still owners to get firm well into 2013, 20 moving sideways. 40 hope of securing higher rates for longer periods, whilst charterers are 100 of Enquiry into feeder sectors has picked up this week, with a number of The consensus for second half 2012 seems to be a mixed bag, with a Enquiry into feeder sectors has picked up this week, with a number still pushing for flexibility in their charters. 1,100teu fixtures recorded, notable that a 2013, two tier market is market is number of owners looking to however get firm it periods well into with Post-panamax tonnage continued with a is fair amount of enquiry and 1,100teu fixtures recorded, however it is notable that a the two tier 20 80 hope of securing higher rates for longer periods, whilst charterers are daily hire rates rose gently upwards in this sector as tonnage availability Enquiry into feeder sectors has picked up this week, with a number of still pushing for flexibility in their charters. dries1,100teu and supply is outpaced by demand short term. We have fixtures recorded, howeverin it the is notable that a two tier market is noted one Taiwanese operator reportedly subletting a 6,500teu unit for a 60 Representative Fixtures Fixtures Enquiry into feederat sectors has picked up this week, with a number of Representative period of 10 months US$27,500/day. 1,100teu fixtures recorded, however it is notable that a two tier market is Name Dwt Teu 14T Blt Spd Cons GR Charterer Dely Date Name Dwt Teu 14T Blt Spd Cons GR Charterer Dely 40 The YM consensus for second half 2012 seems to be4,700 a mixed bag, with 24 a Mandate YM Mandate 83,200 6,570 2010 210 GL Evergreen NE Asia Jul-12 83,200 6,570 4,700Representative 2010 24 Fixtures 210 GL Evergreen NE Asia number of owners looking to get firm periods well into 2013, with the 20 Name Dwt Teu 14T Blt Spd Cons GR Charterer Dely Date Anguila 67,970 5,527 4,200 2006 25.6 217 GL Maersk UK Cont Jul-12 Anguila 67,970 5,527 4,200 2006 25.6 217 GL Maersk UK Cont hope of securing higher rates for longer periods, whilst charterers are YM Mandate 83,200 6,570 4,700 2010 24 210 GL Evergreen NE Asia Jul-12 Erato 34,200 2,504 1,882 2011 22 84.5 G Gold Star Line NE Asia Jul-12 Representative Fixtures Erato 34,200 2,504 1,882 2011 22 84.5 G Gold Star Line NE Asia still pushing for flexibility in their charters.
Anguila 67,970 Teu 1,740 5,527 4,200 2006 25.6 Hansa Brandenburg Hansa Brandenburg 23,508 14T 1,330 1,740 Blt 2003 1,330 Spd 21 2003 Name Dwt23,508 Enquiry into feeder sectors has picked up this week, with a number of Erato 34,200 2,504 1,882 2011 22 Camilla Rickmers 23,000 6,570 1,728 1,125 1996 Camilla Rickmers 23,000 4,700 1,728 2010 1,125 24 18 1996 YM Mandate 83,200
continued with a fair with amount of amount enquiry of and Post-panamax Post-panamax tonnage continued a fair enquiry and 2,500/1,900 teu (G)tonnage 22 k moving sideways. 3.65 0.00 80 daily hire rates rose gently upwards in upwards thissame sector as tonnage availability The container market continued at gently much the pace this week, with availability daily hire rates rose in this sector as tonnage 100 2,800/2,000 teu (GL) 22 k 120 3.31 0.00
80
US$/d
27,50
22,30
GL 54 GR G G 42 GL G G 45 GL GL
2008 19.6 45 2005 770 2005 54 37 19.5 2003 21 19.5 Representative Fixtures 2012 18 30.5 1996 18 42 G GL Blt Spd Cons GR 2005 19.5 37 2008 19.6 45 GL GL 2010 24 210 GL 2012 18 30.5 GL 2006 2005 2011 2003 1996 25.6 19.5 22 21 18 217 37 84.5 54 42 GL GL G G G
G 30.5 G GL GL 37 G GL
10 mos 27,500 (s) 8-10 mos 7,750 Jul-12 8-10 mos Maersk UK Cont Jul-12 12 mos 22,300 Wan Hai NE Asia Jun-12 2-4 6,500 G Wan Hai Date NE Asia Period Jun-12 US$/day 2-4 mos Charterer Dely Gold NE Asia Jul-12 Jul-12 8-10 mos 27,500 7,750 Maersk Med Jun-12 7-10 mos 6,900 G Star Line Maersk Med 10 mos Jun-12 7-10 Evergreen NE Asia (s) mos Wan NE Asia Jul-12 Jun-12 2-4 mos 22,300 6,500 OOCL SE Asia Jul-12 3 mos 6,400 GL Hai OOCL SE Asia 12 mos Jul-12 3 mos Maersk UK Cont Maersk Med Jun-12 7-10 6,900 SITC NE Asia Jul-12 Jun-12 mosmos 7,750 7,500 GL Line NE SITC NE Asia 8-106 Jun-12 6 mos Gold Star Asia mos SE Asia Jun-12 Jul-12 3Jun-12 mos 6,400 NE Jun-12 8-9 mos 6,500 5,800 KMTC NE Asia 2-4 mos 8-9 mos NE Asia NE Asia Jun-12 6 mos 7,500 Med Jun-12 7-10 mos 6,900 Dely NE Asia Date Jun-12 Period 8-9 mosUS$/day 5,800 SE Asia Jul-12 3 mos 6,400 NE Asia Jul-12 10 mos 27,500 NE Asia Jun-12 6 mos 7,500 (s) UK Cont NE Asia NE Asia NE Asia Med Jul-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Jun-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 12 mos 8-9 mos 8-10 mos 2-4 mos 7-10 mos 3 mos 22,300 5,800 7,750 6,500 6,900 6,400 7,500 5,800
7,750
6,500
6,900
6,400
7,500
OOCL GL WanKMTC Hai SITC Maersk Charterer KMTC OOCL Evergreen SITC Maersk KMTC Wan Hai Maersk
5,800
1,100 630 2012 18 30.5 GL email NE Asia Jun-12 6 mos Page 23Chartering S&P email : containers@braemarseascope.com : SITC teu@braemarseascope.com S&P email : containers@braemarseascope.com Chartering email: teu@braemarseascope.com London: Phil Woodington, Graham Booth, Ben Ranulf Swallow, Peyton Broer and Bill Price Phil Woodington, Graham Booth, Ben Ranulf Swallow, Peyton Broer and Bill Price 1,060 770London: 2005 19.5 37 Jeans, GL Jeans, KMTC NE Asia Jun-12 8-9 mos
SHIPPING MARKETS
and combating unemployment. According to Eurogroup Chief, Jean Claude Juncker, there can be no discussions about changing the substance of agreements, but he noted that the recession in Greece is much deeper than originally foreseen and they could talk about extending the timeframe on the basis of Greece not wishing to revisit the entire program. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, during the G20 summit, stated clearly that she will not speak about a new aid package and it is important the New Greek government to stick to its commitments towards the international community and its partners in the European Union. In U.S., the Federal Reserve decided to extend a program known as Operation Twist to push down long term interest rates and boost the economy. The Fed said in a statement that while the economy has been expanding modestly throughout the year, growth in employment has slowed recently and unemployment remains elevated. It expects economic growth to continue to grow moderately over coming quarters and then to pick up gradually and projects a growth for the GDP at a maximum rate of 2.4% rather than 2.9% pace it predicted in April. Regarding the unemployment, it expects the jobless rate to be in the range of 8.0-8.2% from its April projection of around 7.8- 8.0%. The Fed also voted to keep interest rates unchanged at historic lows at least until the end of 2014. In China, there are worries that the countrys slowdown could persist for the second half of the year with Chinese bankers expecting Beijing to loosen its monetary policy further in the third quarter and stimulate growth for the worlds second largest economy. The fresh signs on a weaker Chinese economy are being reflected in a slower industrial activity as HSBC Flash Purchasing Managers Index, the earliest monthly indicator of Chinas industrial activity, fell to a seventh month low of 48.1 in June from 48.4 in May. Chinas central bank could rely on cutting the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves to bolster growth, but it could be cautious on further interest rate cuts unless the economy continues to slow at a pace faster than expected, economists familiar with Beijings policy making process said. Chinas annual economic growth is expected to dip below 8% in the second quarter, the sixth straight quarter of slowing expansion, although analysts are divided on whether it will bottom out during the first half of the year. Chinas gross domestic product growth is expected to be at around 7.5% in the second quarter, while it will rise to 8% in the third quarter and 8.4% in the fourth quarter, according to Zhu Baoliang, chief economist of the
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maximum capacity of 18,000 TEUs. In the dry market, the outlook remains negative with capesize vessels struggling and panamax with supramax units showing a stronger performance and pushing the Baltic Dry Index upwards since June 8th. The BDI is now averaged below 1,000 points mark, at 941 points, compared with more than 1,300 points last year. Most market players believe that the BDI needs to be at least 3000 points for operators to cover running expenditures and maintain their operations. The capesize segment, the main key factor, lying behind the overall positive performance of the BDI, faces tremendous supply issues with average time charter earning floating at levels in region of $3,500/day. During the Lehman crisis of 2008, capesize average time charter earnings have dipped to $2,318/day on the beginning of December of 2008, from the peak of $233,988/day on June 5th 2008. The levels of 2008 belong in a forgettable past with dry bulk operators finding ways to adjust their operational results in the current weak freight market. The recent slide of bunkering costs, the record scrapping activity of this year and the low ordering activity have eased at some level the pain of the market, but the dry cargo demand is not yet at levels that could remedy the imbalance of the freight markets between vessels supply and demand. There is a positive outlook on the rebound of Chinese iron ore demand in the coming month due to governments stimulus measures in the industrial sector, which will contribute in a firmer capesize performance. The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) reported that daily crude steel production in China averaged 1.999mt during the first 10 days of June. This is up slightly from the average of 1.960mt produced during the last 10 days in May. Chinese demand for thermal coal remains also low as China imported a record 26.17 million tons of coal in May compared with 15.3mt of 2011s monthly average, as per government data showed, which caused coal stockpiles to climb and bring the recent lull in coal chartering activity. However, the Chinese coal demand is expected to be again robust as peak electricity demand is approaching and the government is waiting daily electricity consumption at a record of 15.5 to 16 billion kilowatt hours this summer. Panamax vessels have recently found some support with average time charter earning reaching levels at more than $8,000/day, but they are still below $10,000/day, with fears about their long term stability on the basis of their outstanding orderbook and the upcoming deliveries in 2013. According to Commodore Research, for the second half of this year, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 355 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 145 vessels. For 2013, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 240 vessels, while the orderbook for capesizes at around 90 vessels. Supramax and handysize rates are also showing firmer signs from an increased spot chartering activity with levels at more than $12,000/day for supramax units and near to more than $10,000/day for handysizes
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worldwide crude demand with a positive influence on the earnings of very large crude carriers. According to Poten & Partners, the rapid growth of Chinese oil product demand, refining capacity and crude imports has been a supportive factor of crude tanker demand for years and is poised to continue this trend. Although the 3.8% average annual growth in the VLCC fleet during 20062011 has presented challenges to the sector, the 11.8% average annual surge in Chinese crude imports over the period and the growing contribution of Chinese crude import tonne-mile demand have supported VLCC demand. In 2011, more than one fifth of total VLCC employment was dedicated to Chinese crude imports and this proportion has doubled since 2005. The figure is impressive, but over the same period the VLCC fleet also grew by more than 25%. This trend in the Chinese share of VLCC demand should continue, as Chinese refiners lift an additional 1.1 mbpd of AG crudes, 0.4 mbpd of Latin American grades and 0.8 mbpd of WAF cargoes during 2011-16. In fact, this forecast pattern of Chinese imports would imply that VLCCs capture 83% of incremental Chinese tonne-mile demand during the period. This figure is impressive, but implies approximately 70 VLCCs worth of incremental demand from 2011 to 2016. With the current VLCC orderbook near 100 vessels, other importing regions need to add to VLCC demand to ease the imbalance between supply and demand. The Paris based International Energy Agency keeps a positive position on the future oil demand. The Eurozone crisis may be worsening and the European refining operations may be constrained by weak margins, but the June Oil Market Report (OMR) of International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts there will be a sharp rise in crude oil demand in the coming months. According to June OMR, summer power generation demand and potential continued non-OECD stockpiling could boost crude demand further. In the gas market, strong Asian LNG demand continues to divert cargo from Europe shifting vessel demand. LNG cargoes to Asia grew 18% year-on-year by mid-June, while European imports are weakening with Northern Europe imports dropping by 45% year-on-year and Southern Europe by 9% year-on-year. Japan, the worlds largest LNG importer, remains the key driver of the euphoria seen in LNG shipping rates as the country is using more gas instead of nuclear sources to generate electric energy since the Fukushima accident. LNG period rates are currently estimated at $164,000/day, the highest level since early December. According to the Federation of Electric Power Companies, LNG consumption in Japans 10 largest power utilities grew 22.2% year-on-year to 4.41m mt in May. However, there were first signs that Japan is near to end its nuclear shutdown that will have a direct negative impact on the current high LNG demand and spot rates. Japan is said to have given final approval for the restart of two nuclear reactors that will end a total shutdown of the atomic power sector due to safety fears raised from last years crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi plant. Currently, all of the 54 reactors that supply nearly one third of Japans electricity
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various clients. In a statement, Hyundai HI said it received a $400 million order for a 35,000tons offshore oil platform with delivery by August 2015 without disclosing the identity of the oil contractor or the region where the platform will be deployed. Hyundai also won an order for the construction of a semi-submersible drilling rig worth $100mil, with an option for one more unit, by US exploration company LLOG to be delivered early 2014. The third order was from another undisclosed US based oil major to build six land plant modules capable of producing 200 million cubic feet of natural gas and 10,000 barrels of oil a day with scheduled delivery in June 2015. Hyundai HI said it has secured new orders for 14 vessels, 4 LNG carriers, three LPG carriers, three tankers, two PCTCs, one drillship and one semi submersible rig, all worth $2,75 billion in May 2012. In Europe, German authorities have finally agreed to provide up to 152.4M ($192.3M) in loan guarantees to rescue German yard P+S Werften. The loan guarantees will be provided half each by the federal government and the regional state government of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern where the yard is based, the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern government said. The condition is that the yards suppliers - as requested by the EU - make a firm commitment to take shareholdings in the yard. The state government supports the yards in their current difficult situation as we wish to retain them as the core of the maritime industry in our state, state Prime Minister Erwin Sellering said. This is about 1,750 jobs in the yards and around a further 5,000 at supply companies. In the shipping finance, French bank Societe Generale is said to have offloaded part of its shipping portfolio with Citibank ready to take on about a third of the $6billion book at a surprisingly strong price as Societe Generales portfolio is supposed to be in good shape. Sources suggest that Citibank agreed to purchase a $2billion tranche of Societe Generales shippiph book, approximately 33% of its $6billion exposure, for a price reportedly in the low 90s as a percentage of face value. The bank has been now left with shipping loans worth $4billion, while there is no formal announcement from the two sides explaining which parts of the portfolio Citibank decided to take and on what grounds. Societe Generale was seeking for a long time to downside its exposure to shipping by concentrating instead in shipping capital markets after eurozone crisis drove banks share price down by more than half in 2011. In terms of ship financing deals, Chiles biggest container shipping company, Cia. Sud Americana de Vapores SA, has secured a $90 million 12-year loan from DVB Bank SE (DVB) (Frankfurt-based lender specializing in transport finance) to complete the financing of the last two container ships from the total seven ships ordered at Samsung Heavy Industries of South Korea.
SHIPPING MARKETS
Notable sale in the tanker segment the sale of M/T SHAMROCK VENUS of 19,908dwt built 2006 Japan for excess $20mil, when in October last year sister vessel was reported to have changed hands for a price in the region of $24 mil. In the bulk carrier segment, the sale of M/V CAPSTONE of about 76,000dwt built 2000 Japan for about $13,6 mil underlines the sharp fall of asset prices for dry units, as in July last year a similar sized and aged vessel built in Japan was reported sold for a price in the region of $22,4mil. Overall, 28 vessels reported to have changed hands this week at a total invested capital in the region of US$ 434,5 mil with all vessel types, bulk carriers, tankers, containers and liners being on the centre of investors focus, while the offshore segment held the lions share of S&P activity due to the enbloc sale of 10 platform supply vessels for a total sale price of about $250mil. In terms of the reported number of transactions, the S&P activity is up by 55.5% from last weeks activity, and up by 75% comparable with previous years weekly S&P activity, when 16 vessels induced buyers interest at a total invested capital of about $180,15 million, with bulk carriers holding 50% of the total volume of S&P activity and tankers 44%. In terms of invested capital, the offshore segment appears the most overweight by attracting about 63% from the relevant enbloc sale to US buyers, while containers to follow by holding 17% share. NEWBUILDING MARKET
TOTAL Units 12 6 0 5 6 3 0 0 0 0 12 44
Key: (*) Incl. Crude Oil, Clean & Dirty Products, Chemical, Asphalt & Veg. Oil, (**) incl. LPG, LNG, (***) incl. Multi-purpose and Tweendeckers, (*****) incl. Bulk-Ore, Ore-Oil and Bulk-Oil carriers, (*****) incl. Ro-Ro Cargo, Ro-Ro Passenger, (******) incl. Oil & Drilling Rigs, Tugs, Livestock, Trawlers, Cable/Exploration/Navy/ Support Vessels Newbuilding business surpassed this week the secondhand and demolition momentum as offshore support vessels segment seems the most promising for investing in the construction of new units. There has been a relative quiet week in the purchase of secondhand dry units with the BDI sending signals for a further correction downwards in asset prices, while the crude tanker segment remains unattractive. Scrapping momentum has been relative stable in June with no more than 10 vessels being headed to the scrap yards on an average per week. Overall, 44 transactions reported worldwide in the secondhand and demolition market, up by 69.23% week on week due to a 55.5% increase of activity in the secondhand market and 100% rise on the scrapping business At similar week in 2011, the total S&P activity was 15% lower, when 33 transactions had been reported and secondhand ship purchasing activity was 27% lower than the ordering business. SECONDHAND MARKET Potential buyers seem to wait further cuts in asset prices before buying due to dire conditions in the dry and wet freight markets and the dark near term outlook. In the tanker segment, MR sizes continue to be in the frontline with limited crude carriers purchasing activity from sharp falls in vessels earnings. In the bulk carrier segment, capesize vessels are not in the top preference list of investors as the spot freight market remains below covering vessels operating expenses with owners scrapping their overaged vessers rather than buying new ones. Surpamax and handies are more popular purchase candidates with stronger performance and stability in the freight markets.
Key:/ * The total invested capital does not include deals reported with undisclosed contract price ** Deals reported as private and confidential (not revealed contract price)
Overall, the week closed with a remarkable record activity from a continued increased volume of newbuilding contracts for specialized units. There has been also a noticeable fresh business for bulk carriers, tankers and containers. There has been a 160% and 67% rise in bulk carriers and tankers newbuilding activity from last week, while in the tanker segment 6 new units have been ordered. In the offshore segment, there has been a 67% rise with 30 new contracts reported worldwide from 18 last week, with Norwegian owners placing strong volume of order for platform supply vessels. The week ended with 55 fresh orders reported worldwide at a
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this year. A Yang Ming spokesman stated in Lloyds List that they are planning to make purchases of five 14,000 TEU-16,000 TEU boxships by the end of this year and are now assessing details, but the time is not exactly set in stone. The order will be placed when they are sure that the market favors. Yang Ming has yet to decide how will finance the order and it plans to raise $T8bn ($267.9m) from sales of convertible bonds to build working capital that could limit its requirement to borrow. On the other hand, Evergreens order for 10 13,800 TEU boxship units is in doubt as owner is said to have been unable to raise financing. The order has been placed by Korea Infrastructure Investments Asset Management Co. to be chartered to Evergreen for 10 years at around $50,000/day with a purchase option on the vessels at the end of the charter. In the large panamax segment, London based Zodiac Maritime Agencies is said to have finalized a 10 boxships order of 5,000 TEU at STX Offshore & Shipbuilding Chinese facility in Dalian at the price of $40mil each for delivery in early 2014. However, market sources suggest that the contract price may be even lower in the region of $40mil each and Zodiac has penned a letter of intent for five plus five 5,000 TEU boxships. In the handy segment, Avin International of Greece has placed an order for two 1,700 units in Zhejiang Ouhua of China for delivery in 2013-2014 at a price of $25mil each, the contract includes the option for two more units. DEMOLITION MARKET In the demolition market, Japanese giant Mitsui OSK Lines has scrapped its 180,972dwt capesize unit built 1988 in a Chinese green recycling facility with 400tons of bunkers on board at $370/ ldt, while at the end of April similar sized vessels were fetching levels of more than $450/ldt. The downward scrap price momentum seems that has not impaired owners decision for scrapping their overaged capesize units as the current freight market does not support their operating expenses and the near term outlook remains negative. Scrap price levels are still below $400/ldt for dry/general cargo units with India offering almost the similar levels of Chinas. Bangladesh has stepped in more dynamic during the second quarter of the year with India facing the biggest currencys problem over the last months. The week ended with 16 vessels reported to have been headed to the scrap yards of total deadweight 816,188 tons. In terms of the reported number of transactions, the demolition activity has doubled from previous weeks business with dry bulk carrier disposals attracting 50% of scrapping business, while In terms of total deadweight sent for scrap there has been an increase of 162.5%. India is on the frontline by winning 6 of the 16 total demolition transactions, with Bangladesh and China to follow. At a similar week in 2011, demolition activity was at similar levels in terms of the reported number of transactions, 17 vessels had been reported for scrap of total deadweight 709,194 tons with bulk carriers and tankers grasping 30% and 17% respectively of the total number of vessels sent for disposal. Scrap prices were floating at
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(5000teu) 23,500 DWT 2 units ordered by Avin International (GR) at Zhejiang Ouhua (PRC). Price usd $ 25 mil each. Dely 12/20133/2014 (1700teu. Option two more. CV Topaz 1700 design. Neptun ship design. First container order for this owner) SPECIAL PROJECTS 50,000 DWT (Heavy load carriers) 2 units ordered by Da Sin Shipping (SPORE) at Jiangsu Hantong Ship HI (PRC). Price undisclosed. Dely 1Q+3Q/2013. The vessels have been ordered to service a long-term contract for the shipment of wind farm plant from China to Europe. The design has been based on a modified version of the Dolphin 57 type bulk carrier and features a 42m wide open deck) 20,000 DWT (Heavy lifting) 2 units ordered by Spliethoffs Bevracht (NTH) at Zhejiang Ouhua (PRC). Price undisclosed. Dely 2013-2014 5,700 DWT (Platform Supply) 2 units ordered by Farstad Shipping (NOR) at STX OSV (NOR). Price usd 117.4 mil each. Dely 3q/2014-4q/2014 (PSV07. Loa 94.5m, beam 21m and the vessels have been ordered to service a six year charter to Statoil with an option for extension 1/1/1 years) 4,800 DWT (Platform Supply) 1 unit ordered by Vestland Rederi SA (NOR) at Hellesoy (NOR). Price usd 55.5mil each. Dely 12/2012 (VS-485 design. Two now ordered) 4,700 DWT (Platform Supply) 8 units ordered by Deep Sea Supply ASA (NOR) at Zhejiang Shipyard (PRC). Price usd 38mil each. Dely 2013-2014 (Ulstein PX-105CD design. Options exercised. 12 now ordered) 2,000 DWT (Anchor Handling) 5 units ordered by Viko Offshore (SKR) at Onishigumi (JPN). Price undisclosed. Dely end 2012-2013 1,475 DWT (Anchor Handling) 4 units ordered by Martens Group (USA) at Yuexin (PRC). Price undisclosed. Dely within 2014 (68tons bollard pull. 14 now ordered) Platform Supply 2 units ordered by Halul Offshore (QATAR) at Larsen & Toubro (INDIA). Price usd $ 22 mil. Dely 2014 (DP2) Anchor handling 2 units ordered by Halul Offshore (QATAR) at Larsen & Toubro (INDIA). Price usd $ 22 mil. Dely 2014 Jack up drilling rig 1 unit ordered by Perisai Petroleum (MAL) at PPL Shipyard (SPORE). Price $ 208mil. Dely 6/2014 Semisubmersible Drilling rig 1 unit ordered by LLOG (US exploration company) at Hyundai Heavy Industries (SKR). Price $ 100mil. Dely early 2014 (option for 1 more) Key: PRC: China, CYP: Cyprus, SKR: South Korea, GR: Greece, SWISS: Switzerland, GER: Germany, PHIL: Philippines, NOR: Norway, SPORE: Singapore, MAL: Malaysia, Dely: Delivery
stronger levels with Bangladesh and India offering $480-$495/ldt for dry and $510-$520/ldt for wet cargo. GREEK PRESENCE Greek investors showed some fresh signs of business after two weeks of zero reported activity. In the newbuilding market, Pleiades Shipping has added two more units of 51,000dwt in STX Shipbuilding of South Korea for delivery in 2013-2014 from its initial order for four similar sized units last year. Furthermore, Avin International ordered its first containership units of 1,700 TEU for two units plus two more in Zhejiang Ouhua of China with delivery in 2013-2014 at a price of $25mil each. In the secondhand market, Greek owners reported to have bought a panamax dry bulk carrier vessels built 2000 for about $13,6 mil and two large panamax containerships of 5,334TEU built 1995-1996 for $31,15mil each including three years time charter back at $26,800/day. NEWBUILDING MARKET ORDERS BULK CARRIERS 64,000 DWT 4 units ordered by Jiangsu Steamship (PRC) at Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (PRC). Price around usd $ 108 mil enbloc. Dely 5-7-9-12/2014 50,000 DWT 1 unit ordered by Nanjing Hengrui Shipping (PRC) at Nanjing Wujiazui (PRC). Price undisclosed. Dely 2014 (option for 1 more) TANKERS 160,000 DWT (Shuttle) 2 units ordered by Chevron (US) at Samsung Heavy Industries (SKR). Price undisclosed. Dely 2014 110,000 DWT 2 units ordered by Seatankers Mgmt (CYP) at Dalian Shipbuilding Industry (PRC). Price usd $ 44 mil each. Dely 12/2013-3/2014 51,000 DWT 2 units ordered by Pleiades Shipping Agents (GR) at STX Shipbuilding (SKR). Price undisclosed. Dely 2013-2014 (This order follows the initial order of last year for 4 vessels) GAS TANKERS LPG 35,000 DWT 1 unit ordered by Geogas Maritime SAS (SWISS) at Hyundai Mipo (SKR). Price $ 50 mil. Dely 1/2014 ( 35,000cbm. Two now on order) CONTAINERS 50,000 DWT 1 unit ordered by Tamke Dietrich (GER) at Jinling (PRC). Price undisclosed. Dely 12/2014 (4800teu) 50,000 DWT 10 units ordered by Zodiac Maritime (UK) at Hanjin Subic Bay (PHIL). Price usd $ 45 mil. Dely 2014-2016
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