Econ Growth Good GDI2010

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2010
Scholars
1 Econ Growth Good/Bad
Economic Growth Core

Economic Growth Core...........................................................................................................................................................................1
Economic Growth Core.........................................................................................................................................1 !"# $sian .................................................................................................................................................... 11

UQ: Asian- Up.......................................................................................................................................................................................12
!"% $sian# !&......................................................................................................................................................12

UQ: Asian- Down..................................................................................................................................................................................13
!"% $sian# Down.................................................................................................................................................1'

UQ: Asian- Down..................................................................................................................................................................................14
!"% $sian# Down.................................................................................................................................................1(

UQ: Asian- Unsustainable- E ports.......................................................................................................................................................1!
!"% $sian# !nsustainable# E)&orts...................................................................................................................1* !"# China .....................................................................................................................................................1+

UQ: China- Up ......................................................................................................................................................................................1"
!"% China# !& .................................................................................................................................................... 1,

UQ: China- Up ......................................................................................................................................................................................1#
!"% China# !& .................................................................................................................................................... 1UQ: China- Down..................................................................................................................................................................................1$
!"% China# Down................................................................................................................................................ 1.

UQ: China- Down .................................................................................................................................................................................2%
!"% China# Down ............................................................................................................................................... 20 !"% Euro&e ...................................................................................................................................................21

UQ: Europe- Up.....................................................................................................................................................................................22
!"% Euro&e# !&...................................................................................................................................................22

UQ: Europe- Up ....................................................................................................................................................................................23
!"% Euro&e# !& ..................................................................................................................................................2'

UQ: Europe- Down................................................................................................................................................................................24
!"% Euro&e# Down.............................................................................................................................................. 2( !"# /a&an .....................................................................................................................................................2*

UQ: &apan's- Up....................................................................................................................................................................................2(
!"% /a&an0s# !&.................................................................................................................................................. 2+

UQ: &apan's- Down................................................................................................................................................................................2"
!"% /a&an0s# Down............................................................................................................................................. 2, !"# !S ..........................................................................................................................................................2-

Scholars
UQ: U) Econ- Down...........................................................................................................................................................................2$
!"% !S Econ# Down..........................................................................................................................................2.

UQ: U) Econ- Double Dip *ow...........................................................................................................................................................3%
!"% !S Econ# Double Di& 1ow..........................................................................................................................'0

UQ: U) Econ- Down.............................................................................................................................................................................31
!"% !S Econ# Down............................................................................................................................................'1

UQ: U) Econ -Down.............................................................................................................................................................................32
!"% !S Econ #Down............................................................................................................................................'2

UQ: U) Econ- Down.............................................................................................................................................................................33
!"% !S Econ# Down............................................................................................................................................''

UQ: U) Econ- Down.............................................................................................................................................................................34
!"% !S Econ# Down............................................................................................................................................'(

UQ: U) Econ- Up..................................................................................................................................................................................3!
!"% !S Econ# !&.................................................................................................................................................'*

UQ: U) Econ- Up..................................................................................................................................................................................3(
!"% !S Econ# !&.................................................................................................................................................'+

UQ: U) Econ- Up..................................................................................................................................................................................3"
!"% !S Econ# !&.................................................................................................................................................',

UQ: U) Econ- Up..................................................................................................................................................................................3#
!"% !S Econ# !&.................................................................................................................................................'UQ: U) Econ- Up .................................................................................................................................................................................3$
!"% !S Econ# !& ................................................................................................................................................'. !"# 2orld ....................................................................................................................................................(0

UQ: +orl, Econ- Down........................................................................................................................................................................41
!"% 2orld Econ# Down......................................................................................................................................(1

UQ: +orl, Econ- Down........................................................................................................................................................................42
!"% 2orld Econ# Down......................................................................................................................................(2

UQ: +orl, Econ- Down- )toc- .ar-et................................................................................................................................................43
!"% 2orld Econ# Down# Stoc3 4ar3et............................................................................................................ ('

UQ: +orl, Econ- Up.............................................................................................................................................................................44
!"% 2orld Econ# !&...........................................................................................................................................((

UQ: +orl, Econ- Up.............................................................................................................................................................................4!
!"% 2orld Econ# !&...........................................................................................................................................(* Double Di& !" .............................................................................................................................................(+

/rin-- Double Dip 0ecession................................................................................................................................................................4"
Brin3# Double Di& 5ecession..............................................................................................................................(,

Scholars
' Econ Growth Good/Bad
/rin-- Double Dip *ot Comin1............................................................................................................................................................4"
Brin3# Double Di& 1ot Coming..........................................................................................................................(,

UQ: *o +orl, Double Dip....................................................................................................................................................................4$
!"% 1o 2orld Double Di&..................................................................................................................................(. Internal 6in3s ...............................................................................................................................................*0

234- 25 Dip 6ossible..............................................................................................................................................................................!1
I/6# 27 Di& 8ossible.............................................................................................................................................*1

234- Econ Collapse- 4i1htnin1 7ast.......................................................................................................................................................!2
I/6# Econ Colla&se# 6ightning 9ast....................................................................................................................*2

234- 6erception 8e9................................................................................................................................................................................!3
I/6# 8erce&tion :e;..............................................................................................................................................*'

234: U) 0esilient- Empiric ....................................................................................................................................................................!4
I/6% !S 5esilient# Em&iric ..................................................................................................................................*(

234: U) 0esilient- Empiric ....................................................................................................................................................................!!
I/6% !S 5esilient# Em&iric ..................................................................................................................................**

234: U) 0esilient- 6eople.......................................................................................................................................................................!(
I/6% !S 5esilient# 8eo&le..................................................................................................................................... *+

234: U) 0esilient- $311...........................................................................................................................................................................!"
I/6% !S 5esilient# ./11......................................................................................................................................... *,

234: U) 0esilient- .anu:acturin1 .........................................................................................................................................................!#
I/6% !S 5esilient# 4anu<acturing ......................................................................................................................*234: U) *ot 0esilient- 7e, )pen,in1 4ac-in1.......................................................................................................................................!$
I/6% !S 1ot 5esilient# 9ed S&ending 6ac3ing...................................................................................................*.

234: U) *ot 0esilient-Generic...............................................................................................................................................................(%
I/6% !S 1ot 5esilient#Generic.............................................................................................................................+0

234: U) 8e9 to +orl,............................................................................................................................................................................(1
I/6% !S :e; to 2orld.......................................................................................................................................... +1

234: U) not -e9 to +orl, ......................................................................................................................................................................(2
I/6% !S not 3e; to 2orld ....................................................................................................................................+2 Im&acts ..........................................................................................................................................................+' Growth Bad .................................................................................................................................................. +(
2mpacts- Econ /a,- E tinction..............................................................................................................................................................(!
Im&acts# Econ Bad# E)tinction...........................................................................................................................+*

2mpacts- Econ /a,- E tinction..............................................................................................................................................................((
Im&acts# Econ Bad# E)tinction...........................................................................................................................++

2mpacts- Econ /a,- +ar........................................................................................................................................................................("

Scholars
( Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Bad# 2ar.....................................................................................................................................+,

2mpacts- Econ /a,- +ar- Gol,stein......................................................................................................................................................(#
Im&acts# Econ Bad# 2ar# Goldstein..................................................................................................................+2mpacts- Econ /a,- +ar- Gol,stein......................................................................................................................................................($
Im&acts# Econ Bad# 2ar# Goldstein..................................................................................................................+.

2mpacts- Econ /a,- +ar- Gol,stein......................................................................................................................................................"%
Im&acts# Econ Bad# 2ar# Goldstein..................................................................................................................,0

2mpacts- Econ /a,- +ar- Gol,stein- 4on1 +a;e <heor9 De:ense......................................................................................................"1
Im&acts# Econ Bad# 2ar# Goldstein# 6ong 2a=e >heor; De<ense................................................................,1

2mpacts- Econ /a,- +ar- Gol,stein- 4on1 +a;e <heor9 De:ense......................................................................................................"2
Im&acts# Econ Bad# 2ar# Goldstein# 6ong 2a=e >heor; De<ense................................................................,2

2mpacts- Econ /a,- +ar- Gol,stein- 4on1 <heor9 De:ense..............................................................................................................."3
Im&acts# Econ Bad# 2ar# Goldstein# 6ong >heor; De<ense..........................................................................,'

2mpacts- Econ /a,- A2: +ar- Econ 1oo,............................................................................................................................................."4
Im&acts# Econ Bad# $2% 2ar# Econ good......................................................................................................... ,(

2mpacts- Econ /a,- +ar- A2: 2nter,epen,ence ..................................................................................................................................."!
Im&acts# Econ Bad# 2ar# $2% Interde&endence ..............................................................................................,*

2mpacts- Econ /a,- A2: )pace.............................................................................................................................................................."(
Im&acts# Econ Bad# $2% S&ace........................................................................................................................... ,+

2mapcts- Econ /a,- )pace ....................................................................................................................................................................""
Ima&cts# Econ Bad# S&ace ..................................................................................................................................,,

2mpacts- Econ /a,- <errorism .............................................................................................................................................................."#
Im&acts# Econ Bad# >errorism ..........................................................................................................................,2mpacts- Econ /a,- A2: Democrac9- 7rei,man 2n,icts ......................................................................................................................."$
Im&acts# Econ Bad# $2% Democrac;# 9reidman Indicts .................................................................................,.

2mpacts- Econ ba,- A2: Democrac9- 7rie,man 2n,icts Cont',............................................................................................................#%
Im&acts# Econ bad# $2% Democrac;# 9riedman Indicts Cont0d..................................................................... -0

2mpacts- Econ /a,- En;ironment .........................................................................................................................................................#1
Im&acts# Econ Bad# En=ironment .....................................................................................................................-1

2mpacts- Econ /a,- En;ironment..........................................................................................................................................................#2
Im&acts# Econ Bad# En=ironment......................................................................................................................-2

2mpacts- Econ /a,- En;ironment..........................................................................................................................................................#2
Im&acts# Econ Bad# En=ironment......................................................................................................................-2

2mpacts- Econ /a,- Climate Chan1e.....................................................................................................................................................#4
Im&acts# Econ Bad# Climate Change.................................................................................................................-(

2mpacts- Econ /a,- =;erpopulation.....................................................................................................................................................#!

Scholars
* Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Bad# ?=er&o&ulation................................................................................................................. -*

2mpacts- Econ /a,- 7amine...................................................................................................................................................................#(
Im&acts# Econ Bad# 9amine................................................................................................................................-+

2mpacts- Econ /a,- >ealth....................................................................................................................................................................#"
Im&acts# Econ Bad# @ealth.................................................................................................................................-,

2mpacts- Econ /a,- A2: >ealth.............................................................................................................................................................##
Im&acts# Econ Bad# $2% @ealth..........................................................................................................................-2mpacts- Econ /a,- 6o;ert9..................................................................................................................................................................#$
Im&acts# Econ Bad# 8o=ert;............................................................................................................................... -.

2mpacts- Econ /a,- A2: 6o;ert9 ..........................................................................................................................................................$%
Im&acts# Econ Bad# $2% 8o=ert; ........................................................................................................................0

2mpacts- Econ /a,- )tructural ?iolence ..............................................................................................................................................$1
Im&acts# Econ Bad# Structural Aiolence .......................................................................................................... .1

2mpacts- Econ /a,- China- U) >e1......................................................................................................................................................$2
Im&acts# Econ Bad# China# !S @eg....................................................................................................................2

2mpacts- Econ /a,- China- U) >e1......................................................................................................................................................$3
Im&acts# Econ Bad# China# !S @eg....................................................................................................................'

2mpacts- Econ /a,- China- A1ression..................................................................................................................................................$4
Im&acts# Econ Bad# China# $gression................................................................................................................(

2mpacts- Econ /a,- China Arms /uil, Up...........................................................................................................................................$!
Im&acts# Econ Bad# China $rms Build !&........................................................................................................*

2mpacts- Econ ba,- China Arms /uil, Up 234......................................................................................................................................$(
Im&acts# Econ bad# China $rms Build !& I/6..................................................................................................+

2mpacts- Econ /a,- A2: China Arms ...................................................................................................................................................$"
Im&acts# Econ Bad# $2% China $rms ............................................................................................................... .,

2mpacts- Econ /a,- A2: China Arms 234..............................................................................................................................................$#
Im&acts# Econ Bad# $2% China $rms I/6...........................................................................................................2mpacts- Econ /a,- China - U)3 China 0el..........................................................................................................................................$$
Im&acts# Econ Bad# China # !S/ China 5el...................................................................................................... ..

2mpacts- Econ /a,- China - +armin1.................................................................................................................................................1%%
Im&acts# Econ Bad# China # 2arming............................................................................................................ 100

2mpacts- Econ /a,- 2n,ia /a,- Arms..................................................................................................................................................1%1
Im&acts# Econ Bad# India Bad# $rms..............................................................................................................101

2mpacts- Econ /a,- 2ran /uil, Up .....................................................................................................................................................1%2
Im&acts# Econ Bad# Iran Build !& ................................................................................................................. 102

2mpacts- Econ /a,- 0ussia - 89oto ...................................................................................................................................................1%3

Scholars
+ Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Bad# 5ussia # :;oto ............................................................................................................... 10'

2mpacts- Econ /a,- 0ussia - 89oto ...................................................................................................................................................1%4
Im&acts# Econ Bad# 5ussia # :;oto ............................................................................................................... 10(

2mpacts- Econ /a,- 0ussia - 89oto ...................................................................................................................................................1%!
Im&acts# Econ Bad# 5ussia # :;oto ............................................................................................................... 10*

2mpacts- Econ /a,- 0ussia - 89oto ...................................................................................................................................................1%(
Im&acts# Econ Bad# 5ussia # :;oto ............................................................................................................... 10+

2mpacts- Econ /a,- 0ussia- Arms /uil,up .......................................................................................................................................1%"
Im&acts# Econ Bad# 5ussia# $rms Buildu& .................................................................................................. 10,

2mpacts- Econ /a,- 0ussia- Arms /uil,up .......................................................................................................................................1%#
Im&acts# Econ Bad# 5ussia# $rms Buildu& .................................................................................................. 102mpacts- Econ /a,- )E Asia Arms /uil, up ......................................................................................................................................1%$
Im&acts# Econ Bad# SE $sia $rms Build u& ..................................................................................................10.

2mpacts- Econ /a,- )E Asia Arms /uil, up ......................................................................................................................................11%
Im&acts# Econ Bad# SE $sia $rms Build u& ..................................................................................................110 Growth Good .............................................................................................................................................111
2mpacts- Econ Goo,- E tinction.........................................................................................................................................................112
Im&acts# Econ Good# E)tinction...................................................................................................................... 112

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- E tinction.........................................................................................................................................................113
Im&acts# Econ Good# E)tinction...................................................................................................................... 11'

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- +ar...................................................................................................................................................................114
Im&acts# Econ Good# 2ar................................................................................................................................ 11(

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- +ar...................................................................................................................................................................11!
Im&acts# Econ Good# 2ar................................................................................................................................ 11*

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- +ar...................................................................................................................................................................11(
Im&acts# Econ Good# 2ar................................................................................................................................ 11+

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- +ar...................................................................................................................................................................11"
Im&acts# Econ Good# 2ar................................................................................................................................ 11,

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- +ar...................................................................................................................................................................11#
Im&acts# Econ Good# 2ar................................................................................................................................ 112mpacts- Econ Goo,- +ar...................................................................................................................................................................11$
Im&acts# Econ Good# 2ar................................................................................................................................ 11.

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- +ar ..................................................................................................................................................................12%
Im&acts# Econ Good# 2ar ............................................................................................................................... 120

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- 2mpact Calc @ +ar...........................................................................................................................................121
Im&acts# Econ Good# Im&act Calc B 2ar......................................................................................................121

Scholars
, Econ Growth Good/Bad
2mpacts- Econ Goo,- 2nter,epen,ence ...............................................................................................................................................122
Im&acts# Econ Good# Interde&endence .......................................................................................................... 122

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- 2nter,epen,ence ...............................................................................................................................................123
Im&acts# Econ Good# Interde&endence .......................................................................................................... 12'

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- A2: +ar- Gol,stein .........................................................................................................................................124
Im&acts# Econ Good# $2% 2ar# Goldstein ..................................................................................................... 12(

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- A2: +ar- Gol,stein..........................................................................................................................................12!
Im&acts# Econ Good# $2% 2ar# Goldstein...................................................................................................... 12*

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- A2: +ar- Gol,stein .........................................................................................................................................12(
Im&acts# Econ Good# $2% 2ar# Goldstein ..................................................................................................... 12+

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- A2: +ar- Gol,stein- +a;e theor9...................................................................................................................12"
Im&acts# Econ Good# $2% 2ar# Goldstein# 2a=e theor;.............................................................................. 12,

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- A2: +ar- Gol,stein- +a;e theor9...................................................................................................................12#
Im&acts# Econ Good# $2% 2ar# Goldstein# 2a=e theor;.............................................................................. 122mpacts- Econ Goo,- )pace ;sn 2.......................................................................................................................................................12$
Im&acts# Econ Good# S&ace =sn 2.................................................................................................................... 12.

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- )pace ;sn 2.......................................................................................................................................................13%
Im&acts# Econ Good# S&ace =sn 2.................................................................................................................... 1'0

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- 6roli:.................................................................................................................................................................131
Im&acts# Econ Good# 8roli<.............................................................................................................................. 1'1

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- <errorism .........................................................................................................................................................132
Im&acts# Econ Good# >errorism ..................................................................................................................... 1'2

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- <errorism 234....................................................................................................................................................133
Im&acts# Econ Good# >errorism I/6................................................................................................................1''

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- <errorism 234....................................................................................................................................................134
Im&acts# Econ Good# >errorism I/6................................................................................................................1'(

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- <errorism 234....................................................................................................................................................13!
Im&acts# Econ Good# >errorism I/6................................................................................................................1'*

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- >e1 ..................................................................................................................................................................13(
Im&acts# Econ Good# @eg ................................................................................................................................ 1'+

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- >e1- .ore 234...................................................................................................................................................13"
Im&acts# Econ Good# @eg# 4ore I/6...............................................................................................................1',

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- A2: China >e1 <urn.........................................................................................................................................13#
Im&acts# Econ Good# $2% China @eg >urn.....................................................................................................1'2mpacts- Econ Goo,- Democrac9........................................................................................................................................................13$
Im&acts# Econ Good# Democrac;.....................................................................................................................1'.

Scholars
Econ Growth Good/Bad
2mpacts- Econ Goo,- Democrac9 .......................................................................................................................................................14%
Im&acts# Econ Good# Democrac; ....................................................................................................................1(0

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- Democrac9 .......................................................................................................................................................141
Im&acts# Econ Good# Democrac; ....................................................................................................................1(1

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- 7amine .............................................................................................................................................................142
Im&acts# Econ Good# 9amine .......................................................................................................................... 1(2

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- >ealth ..............................................................................................................................................................142
Im&acts# Econ Good# @ealth ............................................................................................................................1(2

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- >ealth...............................................................................................................................................................144
Im&acts# Econ Good# @ealth.............................................................................................................................1((

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- 6o;ert9..............................................................................................................................................................14!
Im&acts# Econ Good# 8o=ert;...........................................................................................................................1(*

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- 6o;ert9..............................................................................................................................................................14(
Im&acts# Econ Good# 8o=ert;...........................................................................................................................1(+

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- A2: *o Growth )ol;es 6o;ert9........................................................................................................................14"
Im&acts# Econ Good# $2% 1o Growth Sol=es 8o=ert;....................................................................................1(,

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- De De;..............................................................................................................................................................14#
Im&acts# Econ Good# De De=............................................................................................................................1(2mpacts- Econ Goo,- 4aun,r9 4ist.....................................................................................................................................................14$
Im&acts# Econ Good# 6aundr; 6ist................................................................................................................. 1(.

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- 4aun,r9 4ist.....................................................................................................................................................1!%
Im&acts# Econ Good# 6aundr; 6ist................................................................................................................. 1*0

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- A2: En;ironment .............................................................................................................................................1!1
Im&acts# Econ Good# $2% En=ironment ......................................................................................................... 1*1

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- A2: En;ironment .............................................................................................................................................1!2
Im&acts# Econ Good# $2% En=ironment ......................................................................................................... 1*2

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- A2: En;ironment A A2: Carr9in1 Capacit9......................................................................................................1!3
Im&acts# Econ Good# $2% En=ironment C $2% Carr;ing Ca&acit;...............................................................1*'

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- Climate Chan1e................................................................................................................................................1!4
Im&acts# Econ Good# Climate Change............................................................................................................ 1*(

2mpacts- Econ Goo, A=;erpopulation................................................................................................................................................1!!
Im&acts# Econ Good C?=er&o&ulation............................................................................................................ 1**

2mpacts- Econ Goo, A=;erpopulation................................................................................................................................................1!(
Im&acts# Econ Good C?=er&o&ulation............................................................................................................ 1*+

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- A2: =;erpopulation..........................................................................................................................................1!"
Im&acts# Econ Good# $2% ?=er&o&ulation......................................................................................................1*,

Scholars
. Econ Growth Good/Bad
2mpacts- Econ Goo,- 0acism..............................................................................................................................................................1!#
Im&acts# Econ Good# 5acism........................................................................................................................... 1*2mpacts- Econ Goo,- 0ussia Goo,- *u-es ........................................................................................................................................1!$
Im&acts# Econ Good# 5ussia Good# 1u3es .................................................................................................... 1*.

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- 0ussia Goo,- *u-es ........................................................................................................................................1(%
Im&acts# Econ Good# 5ussia Good# 1u3es .................................................................................................... 1+0

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- 0ussia Goo,- +ar............................................................................................................................................1(1
Im&acts# Econ Good# 5ussia Good# 2ar........................................................................................................ 1+1

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- A2: 0ussia Con:lict..........................................................................................................................................1(2
Im&acts# Econ Good# $2% 5ussia Con<lict.......................................................................................................1+2

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- A2: 0ussia /uil, Up.........................................................................................................................................1(3
Im&acts# Econ Good# $2% 5ussia Build !&.....................................................................................................1+'

2mpacts- Econ Goo,- A2: 0ussia /uil, Up.........................................................................................................................................1(4
Im&acts# Econ Good# $2% 5ussia Build !&.....................................................................................................1+( >ransition ....................................................................................................................................................1+*

<ransition Bes A A2: *o <ech.............................................................................................................................................................1((
>ransition Des C $2% 1o >ech...........................................................................................................................1++

<ransition Bes A A2: /ac-lash............................................................................................................................................................1("
>ransition Des C $2% Bac3lash..........................................................................................................................1+,

<ransition Bes A A2: .in,set..............................................................................................................................................................1(#
>ransition Des C $2% 4indset...........................................................................................................................1+<ransition Bes A A2: .in,set..............................................................................................................................................................1($
>ransition Des C $2% 4indset...........................................................................................................................1+.

<ransition Bes A A2: .in,set..............................................................................................................................................................1"%
>ransition Des C $2% 4indset...........................................................................................................................1,0

<ransition Bes A >un,re,th .on-e9..................................................................................................................................................1"1
>ransition Des C @undredth 4on3e;..............................................................................................................1,1

<ransition Bes A >un,re,th .on-e9..................................................................................................................................................1"2
>ransition Des C @undredth 4on3e;..............................................................................................................1,2

<ransition- Bes- =il )pill ....................................................................................................................................................................1"3
>ransition# Des# ?il S&ill ..................................................................................................................................1,'

<ransition- Bes- =il )pill ....................................................................................................................................................................1"4
>ransition# Des# ?il S&ill ..................................................................................................................................1,(

<ransition- Bes- 0ecession..................................................................................................................................................................1"!
>ransition# Des# 5ecession................................................................................................................................1,*

<ransition- Bes- 0ecession..................................................................................................................................................................1"(

Scholars
>ransition# Des# 5ecession................................................................................................................................1,+

<ransition- Bes- A2: 2ne;itable...........................................................................................................................................................1""
>ransition# Des# $2% Ine=itable........................................................................................................................ 1,,

<ransition- Bes- A2: >uman *ature....................................................................................................................................................1"#
>ransition# Des# $2% @uman 1ature................................................................................................................1,<ransition- *o- /ac-lash ....................................................................................................................................................................1"$
>ransition# 1o# Bac3lash ................................................................................................................................. 1,.

<ransition- *o- /ac-lash- <rainer 2n,icts...........................................................................................................................................1#%
>ransition# 1o# Bac3lash# >rainer Indicts......................................................................................................1-0

<ransition- *o- >uman *ature............................................................................................................................................................1#%
>ransition# 1o# @uman 1ature........................................................................................................................1-0

<ransition- *o- 2ne;itable ...................................................................................................................................................................1#2
>ransition# 1o# Ine=itable ................................................................................................................................1-2

<ransition- *o- 2ne;itable- /rain Chem..............................................................................................................................................1#3
>ransition# 1o# Ine=itable# Brain Chem..........................................................................................................1-'

<ransition- *o- .in,set......................................................................................................................................................................1#4
>ransition# 1o# 4indset....................................................................................................................................1-(

<ransition- *o- A2: 0ecession ...........................................................................................................................................................1#!
>ransition# 1o# $2% 5ecession .........................................................................................................................1-*

<ransition- *o- A<: /6.......................................................................................................................................................................1#(
>ransition# 1o# $>% B8.....................................................................................................................................1-+

<ransition- *o- A<: /6.......................................................................................................................................................................1#"
>ransition# 1o# $>% B8.....................................................................................................................................1-,

De-De; 7ails A >9per1rowth 131.........................................................................................................................................................1##
De#De= 9ails C @;&ergrowth 1/1...................................................................................................................... 1--

Scholars
!"# $sian

Scholars
!"% $sian# !&

$sia0s econom; is growing ra&idl;# will grow b; *0E in * ;ears Bar3le; +#1* C<omD D=+ &ones *ewswireD http:33online.wsE.com3article3/<-C=-2%1%%(1!-"1%!42.htmlF
mo,G+)&Hlatesthea,lines D Dow Jones NewswireD (-1!-1%I E< +A)>2*G<=* CDow &onesF##$siaGs econom; is on &ace to grow b; hal< within the ne)t <i=e ;ears an, o;erta-e the siJe o: the Group o: )e;en lea,in1 in,ustrial nations b9 2%3%D the 2nternational .onetar9 7un, sai, <ues,a9. K>he &ossibilit; that $sia could become the worldGs largest economic region b; 20'0 is not idle s&eculationHK writes Anoop )in1hD ,irector o: the 2.7Ls Asia an, 6aci:ic DepartmentD in the :un,Ls 7inance @ De;elopment ma1aJine. K2t seems ;er9 plausibleD base, on what Asia has alrea,9 achie;e, in recent ,eca,esDK he sai,D notin1 that the regionGs share o< the world econom; has tri&led o;er the past two ,eca,es. .in MhuD a :ormer ,eput9 1o;ernor o: ChinaLs central ban- who was recentl9 appointe, a special a,;iser to I49 4anaging Director DominiNue )trauss-8ahnD said he e)&ects $sia to Imo=e more to the center o< tomorrowGs global econom;I in the ne)t <i=e ;ears. 2n an inter;iew publishe, in the ma1aJineD Mhu sai, $sia will attract increasing trade and ca&ital <lows gi=en the slow growth and <iscal troubles in more ad=anced economies. /ut he sai, polic9 ma-ers in the re1ion :ace se;eral challen1es :rom chan1in1 1lobal con,itions. K<he surge in ca&ital <lows to emerging $sia &resents big challenges <or the region D particularl9 in 2%1% an, :or the ne t :ew 9earsDK he sai,. K<he Asian economies nee, to han,le this issue ;er9 care:ull9 an, ,esi1n proper policies to brin1 lastin1 solutions.K 8olic; ma3ers must rethin3 their growth models to rel9 more on consumption-,ri;en economies Kto ma-e 1rowth much more balance, an, sustainableDK sai, Mhu. 7inancial re:orm is also necessar9D inclu,in1 ,e;elopin1 local bon, mar-ets.

Scholars
1' Econ Growth Good/Bad
!"% $sian# Down

$sian econom; declining# stoc3s /ohnson +/1, C*icolasD 7e,eral Communications Commission commissionerD San Francisco ChronicleD
http:33www.s:1ate.com3c1i-bin3article.c1iF:G313a32%1%3%(31"3bloomber113"(-444U=+1A124>-4.D<4 D (.1".1%I E< &une 1" C/loomber1I -- $sian stoc3s <ell <or the <irst time in si) da;s on concern a 1lobal economic reco;er9 ma9 ta-e lon1er than hope, a:ter U.). housin1 starts ,roppe, an, 7e,E Corp.Ls pro:it :orecast traile, estimates. <o9ota .otor Corp.D a carma-er that 1ets about 2# percent o: its sales :rom *orth AmericaD ,ecline, %.$ percent in <o-9o. />6 /illiton 4t,.D the worldGs biggest mining com&an;H sli&&ed 0.( &ercent in )9,ne9 a:ter oil an, metal prices slumpe,. >on,a .otor Co. :ell %.# percent a<ter Goldman Sachs Grou& 2nc. said &ro<its at the automa-er ma; <all as it su::ers stri-es in China. .itsubishi Estate Co.D &apanLs bi11est propert9 ,e;eloper b9 mar-et ;alueD rose 1 percent a:ter Gol,man )achs raise, its in;estment ratin1 on the compan9.
$sian econom; down# stoc3 mar3et <alling /ohnson +/1, C*icolasD 7e,eral Communications Commission commissionerD San Francisco ChronicleD
http:33www.s:1ate.com3c1i-bin3article.c1iF:G313a32%1%3%(31"3bloomber113"(-444U=+1A124>-4.D<4 D (.1".1%I E< <he 4SCI $sia 8aci<ic Inde) was little changed at 11*.,0 as o: $:2" a.m. in <o-9o a<ter <i=e consecuti=e gains that &ushed the gauge to a <our#wee3 high. About <our stoc3s declined <or e=er; three that ad=anced. <he inde) has lost (.1 &ercent this ;ear on concern that Greece an, other European countries will stru11le to curb their bu,1et ,e:icits an, repa9 ,ebt.
$sian econ down# in=estor con<idence /ohnson +/1, C*icolasD 7e,eral Communications Commission commissionerD San Francisco ChronicleD
http:33www.s:1ate.com3c1i-bin3article.c1iF:G313a32%1%3%(31"3bloomber113"(-444U=+1A124>-4.D<4 D (.1".1%I E< IIn=estors are inclined to boo3 &ro<it a:ter 9ester,a9Ls 1ainDK sai, .itsushi1e A-inoD who o=ersees the eJui=alent o< K(*0 million in assets at <o-9o-base, 2chi9oshi 2n;estment .ana1ement Co. K!ncertaint; o=er the mar3et outloo3 and a loss o< con<idence ha=e dri=en down the mar3et e;en thou1h the global econom; remains resilient. Consi,erin1 corporate earnin1sD share prices shoul, be hi1her.K 7utures on the )tan,ar, @ 6oorLs !%% 2n,e :ell %.3 percent. >he gauge dro&&ed 0.0+ &ercent ;esterda; in *ew Bor-. A Commerce Department report showe, housin1 starts :ell 1% percent in .a9D the bi11est ,rop since .arch 2%%$. 7e,E D the worl,Ls lar1est air-car1o carrierD tumble, ( percent a:ter sa9in1 earnin1s will be O4.4% to O! a share :or the 9ear that be1an &une 1D trailin1 the O!.%" estimate, b9 anal9sts.
$sia is slowing# go=ernment is cooling the econom; 2assener ,/+ C/ettinaD 0eporter P *B <imesD New York TimesD
http:33www.n9times.com32%1%3%"3%"3business31lobal3%"asiaecon.htmlFHrG1D ".(.1%I E< >he slowdown is modestH and most o< the regionD notabl9 2n,ia an, ChinaD continues to enLo; growth rates that <ar outstri& those in Euro&e and the !nited States . 4ow corporate an, househol, ,ebt le;els an, :irm ,eman, within Asia itsel: ha;e helpe, most Asian-6aci:ic nations to shru1 o:: more mute, ,eman, :rom elsewhere. )tillD the last <ew wee3s ha=e brought mounting e=idence o< more moderate growthD inclu,in1 in ChinaD where go=ernment e<<orts to cool the econom; ha=e begun to ta3e e<<ect. =n <ues,a9D the 5eser=e Ban3 o< $ustralia cited the Muncertaint; about the &ace o< <uture global growth DQ including worries about the im&act o< Euro&ean debt troublesD in its ,ecision to -eep its benchmar- cash rate unchan1e, at 4.! percent.

Scholars
1( Econ Growth Good/Bad
!"% $sian# Down

$sian mar3ets all down# worries o=er global econ bring them down Barchart 5esearch >eam ,/, CInside FuturesD ".".1%D http:33www.insi,e:utures.com3article31(%2%"3/archart
R2%U.).R2%.ornin1R2%Call.html I E< <he Asian mar3ets toda; closed mostl; lower with /a&an down #0.+'EH @ong :ong #1.1'EH China N0.+.EH >aiwan #0.1.EH $ustralia #0.*0EH Singa&ore #0.2(EH South :orea #0.,+EH 2n,ia -%.#1R. 4ost $sian stoc3s retreated a<ter ;esterda;Gs wea3er#than#e)&ected &un 2). non-manu:acturin1 inde) increased concern that the global reco=er; will wea3en. &apanLs *i--ei 22! )toc- 2n,e ,ecline,D le, b9 losses in >on,a .otor an, )on9D while >on1 8on1Ls >an1 )en1 2n,e retreate, a:ter the hea, o: the *ational /ureau o: )tatistics sai, in the bureauLs newspaper to,a9 that ChinaLs econom9 :aces increasin1 uncertainties an, the economic situation is becomin1 more comple . >he manager o< ChinaGs <oreign e)change reser=es said the !S bond mar3et is im&ortant and changes in holdings o< >reausuries IshouldnGt be &oliticized.K <he )tate A,ministration o: 7orei1n E chan1e C)A7EI also sai, on its website that concern China mi1ht consi,er usin1 the KnuclearK option o: ,umpin1 its <reasur9 hol,in1s is Kcompletel9 unnecessar9.K AustraliaLs &un buil,in1 in,ustr9 in,e :ell -(.# points to 4(.4D its :irst contraction in 1% monthsD an, a si1n that interest rate increases b9 the 0/A are ero,in1 ,eman, :or new ,wellin1s.
$sian mar3et <alling# stoc3s down due to Euro&ean growth slum&ing $8 ,/+ CAssociated PressD
http:33www.1oo1le.com3hoste,news3ap3article3A4eN.!h3-1.A-b4w9: /,EJw#6c48M"DhQD$G6#C3%1 D ".(.1%I E< <=8B= S $sian stoc3 mar3ets <ell in earl; trading <ues,a9 on growing worries o=er the global economic reco=er; <ollowing data showing Euro&eGs ser=ice growth slowed <or a second month. &apanLs benchmar- *i--ei 22! stoc- in,e ,roppe, 1(#.2$ pointsD or 1.# percentD to $D%$#.4$. <he *i--ei was also un,er pressure on a stron1 9enD which hurts &apanese e porters. )outh 8oreaLs 8ospi ,ecline, 1.! percent to 1D(!%.$2D an, AustraliaLs )@63A)5 2%% was ,own %." percent at 4D221."%. Sentiment turned downbeat across $sia as in=estors were disa&&ointed b; a re&ort showing slum&ing growth in Euro&eGs ser;ice an, manu:acturin1 sectors. A composite in,e base, on a sur;e9 o: euro-area purchasin1 mana1ers in ser;ice an, manu:acturin1 in,ustries :ell to !( in &une :rom !(.4 in .a9D sai, a 4on,on-base, .ar-it report. >he &oor result was a <resh sign that a reco=er; in the global econom; is losing momentum
$nd reco=er; is re=ersing# growth is now slow 2assener ,/+ C/ettinaD 0eporter P *B <imesD New York TimesD
http:33www.n9times.com32%1%3%"3%"3business31lobal3%"asiaecon.htmlFHrG1D ".(.1%I E< Data <rom /a&an on <ues,a9 also indicated that the countr;0s reco=er;D which was much wea-er than elsewhere in AsiaD was losing momentum. An in,e 1roupin1 ;arious economic indicators sli&&ed <or the <irst time in more than a ;earH to 1%1.2 in .a9 :rom 1%1.3 in AprilD the &apanese cabinet o::ice reporte,. 4ast wee-D the so#called >an3ansur=e;H a closel9 watche, Nuarterl9 measure o: business sentiment publishe, b9 the /an- o: &apanD showed a sur&rising Lum&H but se=eral other indicators ha=e sli&&edH leading some anal;sts to &redict that /a&an0s <ragile econom; will grow onl; slowl; this ;ear. M>he ne)t 2( months will be di<<icult <or $sian com&anies that ha=e Euro&e as their main mar3et DQ economists at C4)A Asia-6aci:ic .ar-etsD a prominent in;estment 1roup in >on1 8on1D wrote in a research report. TGrowth will be sJueezed b; austerit; measures and the euro currenc; will be wea3.O /oth o: these thin1s hurt Asian e portsD Tbut a repeat o: 2%%# is not on the car,sDQ the9 wrote. T+orl, tra,e 1rowth this 9ear will be stron1 re1ar,less o: what is happenin1 in Europe.Q

Scholars
1* Econ Growth Good/Bad
!"% $sian# !nsustainable# E)&orts

$nd asia0s econom; is unsustainable# e)&ort de&endenc; threatens an; &ossible resilience 5adio $ustralia ,/+ C ABC Radio AustraliaD
http:33www.ra,ioaustralia.net.au3connectasia3stories32%1%%"3s2$4!$"4.htm D ".(.1%I E< A lea,in1 Asian businessman sa9s the regionGs <uture economic resilience rests on whether it can shi<t awa; <rom e)&ort#dri=en mar3ets. .ala9sia Airlines chairmanD Dr .unir .aEi,D sa9s :or that to happenD there needs to be a stronger <ocus on im&ro=ing the li=ing standards o< millions o< &oor across the region. Dr .aEi, sa9s man9 2estern anal;sts underestimate the com&le) nature o< the so-calle, K$sian# led economic reco=er;I.
$sia isn0t resilient still 5adio $ustralia ,/+ C ABC Radio AustraliaD
http:33www.ra,ioaustralia.net.au3connectasia3stories32%1%%"3s2$4!$"4.htm D ".(.1%I E< +E0DE*: 2n ensuring that $sia is more resilient ;ou mentioned something about it will change the nature o< the relationshi&H an, 2 am assuming ;ou mean the relationshi&s between $sia and the 2estF D0 .A&2D: +ell o-a9 2 thin- 9ouLre pointin1 to shi:ts in powerD balance which will then ha;e conseNuences in terms o: 1eo-political power an, balance but these shi:ts are not 1oin1 to be a -in, o: +est or Asia or the rest or AsiaD because within $sia itsel< there is com&etition thatGs arising economicall;H geo#&oliticall; and how these things are managed will also ensure how stable $sia is as a region . +E0DE*: BouLre sa9in1 basicall9 that we shoul,nLt be as a re1ion :ocusin1... D0 .A&2D: Bou -now 2 thin- we shouldnGt get too &unch drun3 and ta3e a le=el headed =iewH ;es $sia is doing :ar betterH but itGs a long wa; to go.

Scholars
1+ Econ Growth Good/Bad
!"# China

Scholars
1, Econ Growth Good/Bad
!"% China# !&

China is growing# 3e; stoc3s are growing Juic3l; Shidong ,/+ CMhan1D Bloomber BusinessweekD ".(.1%D http:33www.businesswee-.com3news32%1%-%"-%(3chinastoc-s-lea,-asian-mar-ets-hi1her-a1ban--pricin1-nears.html I E< &ul9 ( C/loomber1I -- China0s stoc3s roseD with the )han1hai Composite 2n,e lea,in1 Asian eNuit9 mar-ets hi1herD as in=estors s&eculated recent losses were e)cessi=e. A1ricultural Ban3 o< China 6td. is &re&aring to sell shares in what ma; be the world0s biggest initial &ublic o<<ering. >he Shanghai Com&ositeD Asia's worst per:ormin1 in,e in the :irst hal:D rose 1.. &ercentH le, b9 &ian1 i Copper Co. an, Aluminum Corp. o: China 4t,. &oincare 6harmaceutical Group 2n,ustr9 Co. pace, 1ains b9 ,ru1ma-ersD China's worst per:ormers in the past month. EJuities are trading at their lowest le=els relati=e to earnings in 1- months a:ter the )han1hai in,e slumpe, 2( percent this 9ear on concern 1o;ernment e::orts to curb in:lation an, propert9 speculation will slow the econom9. >he rebound is a boost <or $gricultural Ban3D which is see-in1 O2%.1 billion sellin1 stoc- in )han1hai an, >on1 8on1 an, ma9 price its shares to,a9. TStoc3s ha=e dro&&ed to a le=el where =aluations are attracti=e to bargain hunters D who e pect the 1o;ernment to ease ti1htenin1 policies to counter an economic slow,ownDQ sai, Dai .in1D a :un, mana1er at )han1hai 8in1sun 2n;estment .ana1ement @ Consultin1 Co. T+e estimate that the I8? &rice o< $gricultural Ban3 will be at about a 10 &ercent discount to &rices o< listed big ban3s . <hat'll lea;e room :or a possible :irst-,a9 1ain.Q >he Shanghai Com&ositeD the bi11er o: China's two e chan1esD ad=anced (*.(- to close at 2H(0..(2H the most since /une 21. <he C)2 3%% 2n,e a,,e, 2 percent to 2D!(2.$%. <he measure trac-s 9uan-,enominate, stoc-sD -nown as A sharesD in )han1hai an, )henJhen.
China0s econom; is e)&anding# growth and earning rates increasing Shidong ,/+ CMhan1D Bloomber BusinessweekD ".(.1%D http:33www.businesswee-.com3news32%1%-%"-%(3chinastoc-s-lea,-asian-mar-ets-hi1her-a1ban--pricin1-nears.html I E< Declines ha;e sent the C)2 3%%'s ;aluation to 14 times this 9ear's earnin1sD ,own :rom a hi1h o: 22 times in &anuar9D accor,in1 to ,ata trac-e, b9 /loomber1. &ian1 i CopperD China0s largest &roducer o< the metalH rose 2.. &ercent to 22.$" 9uanD en,in1 a 10#da;H 22 &ercent &lunge. )han i Coal 2nternational Ener19 Group Co. surged *.+ &ercent to 1".!% 9uan a:ter losin1 hal: its ;alue this 9ear. China Cosco >ol,in1s Co.D the worl,'s bi11est operator o: ,r9-bul- shipsD a,,e, 2.( percent to #.!( 9uanD climbin1 :rom the lowest since &anuar9 2%%$. <he price-earnin1s multiple :or A shares is 1.2 stan,ar, ,e;iation below the 1%-9ear a;era1eD while the two#;ear com&ound earnings growth rate is Mamong the highest in histor;HO accor,in1 to U/) AG.
$nd china0s industries are growing as Juic3l; as &ossible# good econom; coming Shidong ,/+ CMhan1D Bloomber BusinessweekD ".(.1%D http:33www.businesswee-.com3news32%1%-%"-%(3chinastoc-s-lea,-asian-mar-ets-hi1her-a1ban--pricin1-nears.html I E< >he 1(#da; relati;e strength measure <or the Shanghai Com&ositeH measuring how ra&idl; &rices ha;e ad=anced or dro&&ed ,urin1 a speci:ie, time perio,D was at 2+.- 9ester,a9. 0ea,in1s below 3% in,icate it ma; be &oised to rise. Cre,it )uisse Group AG sai, Chinese stoc3s will be Mrange# boundO because a shi<t to increased reliance on consum&tion to dri=e the nation0s economic growth will bene<it com&anies that ha;e a T;er9 mar1inal in,e wei1htin1DQ accor,in1 to a report b9 anal9sts ?incent Chan an, 6e119 Chan. +estern )pen,in1 Sichuan 5oad B Bridge Co. rose b; the 10 &ercent dail; limit to #.12 9uan a<ter the nation0s to& economic &lanning agenc; said +-2 billion ;uan CO1%1 billionI will be in=ested in the western re1ion this 9ear. )ichuan E presswa9 Co. 1aine, 2.( percent to (.($ 9uan. ChongJing Brewer; Co. rose 2.- &ercent to 33."" 9uan. <he compan9 sai, its sharehol,ers appro;e, plans :or its parent to sell a 12.2! percent sta-e to Carlsber1 A3)D ma-in1 it the bi11est sharehol,er.

Scholars
1Econ Growth Good/Bad
!"% China# !&

$ndH e=er; econom; has bum&s on the wa;# ignore their e=idence sa;ing it0s not growing Shidong ,/+ CMhan1D Bloomber BusinessweekD ".(.1%D http:33www.businesswee-.com3news32%1%-%"-%(3chinastoc-s-lea,-asian-mar-ets-hi1her-a1ban--pricin1-nears.html I E< Aroun, *( &ercent o< $ share com&anies0 <irst#hal< guidance indicate ;ear#on#;ear net income growth o< more than *0 &ercentH U/)'s >on1 8on1-base, strate1ist &ohn <an1 wrote in a report to,a9. )toc-s ha;e slumpe, this 9ear as authorities intensi:ie, a crac-,own on propert9 speculation a:ter announcin1 the econom9 e pan,e, at an 11.$ percent annual pace in the :irst NuarterD the most since 2%%". 8enneth 0o1o::D the >ar;ar, Uni;ersit9 pro:essorD sai, China's propert9 mar-et is be1innin1 a TcollapseQ that will hit the nation's ban-in1 s9stem. $s China0s econom; de=elo&sH Mes&eciall; at the s&eed it0s growingH it0s going to ha=e bum&sDQ 0o1o::D :ormer chie: economist o: the 2nternational .onetar9 7un,D sai, in an inter;iew with /loomber1 <ele;ision in >on1 8on1. $luminum Cor&. o< ChinaD the nation's bi11est ma-er o: the li1htwei1ht metal an, also calle, ChalcoD added 1.- &ercent to #."4 9uan. <he compan9 sai, it e ten,e, the ,ea,line :or a planne, pri;ate placement o: A shares b9 a 9ear. Chalco sai, April 1! that it won re1ulator9 appro;al to sell as man9 as 1 billion A shares.
$nd re&orts about Chinese economic slum&ing are wrong# it is not as bad as initiall; thought 5uan ,/2 C?ictoriaD :ormer reporter turne, re1ional ,irectorD !all Street JournalD
http:33online.wsE.com3article3)/1%%%1424%!2"4#"%4#$#!%4!"!34234211(4!$!42.htmlFmo,G1oo1lenewsHwsED ".2.1%I E< ChinaGs economic growth slowed less shar&l; during the global <inancial crisis last ;ear than initiall; re&ortedD accor,in1 to the nationLs statistics bureauD which re=ised u& the countr;Gs gross#domestic# &roduct growth <or 200. to ..1E <rom -.,E. <he re;ision was ,ue to hi1her contributions :rom secon,ar9 an, tertiar9 in,ustriesD the *ational /ureau o: )tatistics sai, in a statement on its website 7ri,a9. )econ,ar9 in,ustries inclu,e the minin1D manu:acturin1 an, power sectorsD while tertiar9 in,ustries co;er ser;ices. 8rimar; industries co=er <armingH <orestr; and <ishing. 2n 2%%#D ChinaGs econom; e)&anded ..+E. <he bureau sai, ChinaGs nominal GD8D e;aluate, at current mar-et prices without a,Eustment :or in:lationD reache, 34 trillion 9uan CO! trillionI in 2%%$. At last 9earLs a;era1e e chan1e rate H China remained the worldGs third#largest econom;H behind /a&an with a 2%%$ GD6 o: Eust o;er O! trillion. Accor,in1 to the statistics bureauLs re;ise, :i1uresD ChinaGs tertiar; industr; out&ut grew ..'E last ;earD up :rom the pre;iousl9 reporte, #.$RD while its secon,ar9 in,ustr9 output rose $.$RD up :rom $.!R. 6rimar9 in,ustr9 1rowth was unchan1e, at 4.2E. China re=ises its &reliminar; GD8 data at least twiceD as more in:ormation becomes a;ailableD in line with international practice. ChinaLs ,ata collection in the ser;ice sector has been relati;el9 wea-er than in other sectorsD which partl9 e plains wh9 the tertiar9 in,ustr9 ,ata are usuall9 re;ise, upwar,.

Scholars
1. Econ Growth Good/Bad
!"% China# Down

China0s econom; is declining# manu<acturing slowing 2all Street /ournal ,/* C!all Street JournalD
http:33online.wsE.com3article3)/1%%%1424%!2"4#"%4"3#4%4!"!34(423$24%#!4#4.htmlFmo,G1oo1lenewsHwsE D ".!.1%I E< /E2&2*GSChinese 8remier +en &iabao said Sunda; the countr;Gs economic &olicies I<ace increasing dilemmasI because the impact o< the global <inancial crisis is more serious than e)&ected D but he reiterate, that China wonLt hol, bac- steps to restructure the econom9 :or 1rowth. <he remar-s were ma,e a:ter two purchasin1 mana1ersL in,e es issue, last wee- showe, ChinaGs manu<acturing econom; slowed in /une and a<ter China on 9rida; re=ised u&ward its gross domestic &roduct growth <or 200.. <he GD6 re;ision means ChinaLs 9ear-to-9ear 1rowth will ha;e a hi1her comparison base :or the secon, an, :ollowin1 NuartersD so the 1rowth ma9 be lower than economistsL e pectations. Des&ite the widel; e)&ected slowdownD .r. 2en reiterated that China will continue its economic &olicies but increase their <le)ibilit;D to Ksol;e current si1ni:icant an, ur1ent problemsK while Kla9in1 :oun,ations :or stable an, relati;el9 :ast economic 1rowth o: 2%11 an, in a lon1er term.K >e was spea-in1 at a economic :orum hel, )atur,a9 in the central Chinese cit9 o: Chan1shaD accor,in1 to a statement poste, on the central 1o;ernmentLs website.
China0s econom; is slowing# in<lation &roblems and com&licated structure 2all Street /ournal ,/* C!all Street JournalD
http:33online.wsE.com3article3)/1%%%1424%!2"4#"%4"3#4%4!"!34(423$24%#!4#4.htmlFmo,G1oo1lenewsHwsE D ".!.1%I E< IChinaGs current economic situation is soundD but the domestic and global economic en=ironment is e)tremel; com&licatedHK .r. +en sai,. >e sai, BeiLing will tr; to maintain relati=el; <ast economic de=elo&ment while managing in<lation.
China0s economic growth is slowing and the; are still the 'rd largest econom; 2all Street /ournal ,/* C!all Street JournalD
http:33online.wsE.com3article3)/1%%%1424%!2"4#"%4"3#4%4!"!34(423$24%#!4#4.htmlFmo,G1oo1lenewsHwsE D ".!.1%I E< <he statistics bureau on 9rida; re=ised upwar, economic growth <or 200. to ..1E <rom -.,E. <he re=ision was due to higher contributions <rom secondar; and tertiar; industries . )econ,ar9 in,ustries inclu,e the minin1D manu:acturin1 an, power sectorsU tertiar9 in,ustries co;er ser;ices. 6rimar9 in,ustries are :armin1D :orestr9 an, :ishin1. 2n 2%%#D ChinaLs econom9 e pan,e, $.(R. <he bureau sai, ChinaLs nominal GD6D e;aluate, at current mar-et prices without a,Eustment :or in:lationD reache, 34 trillion 9uan CO!.%2 trillionI in 2%%$. At last 9earLs a;era1e e chan1e rateD China remained the worldGs third#largest econom;D behin, &apan with a 2%%$ GD6 o: Eust o;er O! trillion.

Scholars
!"% China# Down

Chinese GD8 is <alling# economic slowdown is coming their wa; 2heatle; ,/, CAlanD China Economic E,itorD ReutersD http:33in.reuters.com3article3i,2*2n,ia-4$$4%#2%1%%"%" D
".".1%I Annual gross domestic &roduct growth probabl9 slowed to 10.* &ercent last Juarter :rom 11.$ percent in the :irst three months o: the 9earD when the econom;Gs =igour was e)aggerated b9 comparison with a weabase in earl9 2%%$. E=en i< the <orecast o< '2 economists is borne out when the go=ernment issues the GD8 data on &ul9 1!D mar3ets are Litter; enough o=er a slowdown that the; ma; ta3e <right that BeiLing is hitting the monetar; bra3es too hard.
$nd global stoc3s are decreasing# Chinese slowdown causes <ear 2heatle; ,/, P$lanH China Economic EditorH ReutersH htt&%//in.reuters.com/article/idI1India#(..(0-20100,0, H ,.,.10F
9ear o< an abru&t slowdown in ChinaH a maEor ,ri;er o: the worl, econom9Ls reco;er9 :rom the ,eepest ,ownturn in #% 9earsD is one the <actors behind a recent swoon in global stoc3 mar3ets. ?ther <igures ,ue on &ul9 1! are li3el; to &oint to a similar ;ear#on#;ear slowdown in :actor9 output an, in;estment 1rowth. /ut trade numbers scheduled <or this Saturda; are e)&ected to show that ;ear#on#;ear e)&ort and im&ort growth remained robust last monthH albeit a touch slower than in .a9.
China isn0t resilient# the; lac3 a strong reser=e base 2heatle; ,/, CAlanD China Economic E,itorD ReutersD http:33in.reuters.com3article3i,2*2n,ia-4$$4%#2%1%%"%" D
".".1%I <he blurre, picture ma-es it li-el9 that China will stic- to its broa, polic9 settin1s :or now. IChina does not ;et ha=e the economic <oundations to adLust its acti=e <iscal &olic; an, appropriatel9 loose monetar9 polic9DK Ban1 GuoJhon1D an o::icial with the 6eopleLs /an- o: ChinaD wrote in China 7inanceD a ma1aJine run b9 the central ban-. China has raised ban3sG reser=e reJuirements three times this ;ear an, en1ineere, a mar-e, ,eceleration in mone9 an, cre,it 1rowthD but it has -ept benchmar- interest rates unchan1e,. +hen the time comesD China should tighten monetar; &olic; <irst and then wind down <iscal stimulusD Ban1 wrote.
China0s economic clout shrin3ing# too de&endent on global econom; 2heatle; ,/, CAlanD China Economic E,itorD ReutersD http:33in.reuters.com3article3i,2*2n,ia-4$$4%#2%1%%"%" D
".".1%I ChinaGs econom; is at a crucial Luncture and <aces growing uncertainties stemming <rom the global economic en=ironmentH .a &iantan1D hea, o: the *ational /ureau o: )tatisticsD sai, in comments publishe, on +e,nes,a9. +en sai, at the wee-en, that the gra=it; o< the global <inancial crisisD :ollowe, b9 twists an, turns in the reco;er9D &osed a growing number o< dilemmas <or China. 2n responseD the premier sai,D China would maintain Icontinuit; and stabilit;I in macroeconomic &olic; with an emphasis on Ktar1ete, an, :le ibleK measures. >hat has been the case with the &ro&ert; mar3et.

Scholars
!"% Euro&e

Scholars
UQ: Europe- Up
>he euro&ean econom; is stable now# rise in businesses 4oenning ,/+ C,a;i,D pro:essional mone9 mana1er an, is the 6resi,ent an, Chie: 2n;estment )trate1istD
iStockanal"stD http:33www.istoc-anal9st.com3article3;iewarticle3articlei,342#(%33 I E< 2hile debt concerns in Euro&e continue to worr; in=estors on a dail; basisD >uesda; saw Euro&ean mar3ets rall; to solid gains C7rance was up V2."3RD German9 1aine, V2.1!RD an, the U8 poppe, up V2.$3RI. An, upon :urther re;iewD it turns out that the Eurozone econom; ma; be more stable than we thought. Se=eral 3e; economic indicators :rom across the pon, ha=e been &ositi=e recentl9D signaling that while the debt crisis continues to trouble usD the current economic en=ironment o< the Eurozone is actuall; &rett; good. <he Euro&ean CommissionGs business an, consumer sentiment inde) rose 0.' &oints in /uneH as did German;Gs 2:o in,e . Both were rebounds <rom wea3 <igures in .a9D when the ,ebt crisis was more pre;alent an, worrisome.
>he Euro&ean econom; is growing# no double di& recession in sight 4oenning ,/+ C,a;i,D pro:essional mone9 mana1er an, is the 6resi,ent an, Chie: 2n;estment )trate1istD
iStockanal"stD http:33www.istoc-anal9st.com3article3;iewarticle3articlei,342#(%33 I E< <he =ECDLs Com&osite 6eading Indicator :or the Euro-Mone also &osted gains in /une. >his mar3ed a continued trend o< &ositi=e resultsH and has been consistent with sustaine, economic growth <rom an historical stand&oint. AlsoD the 84I and EuroCoin inde)D while a bit o:: :rom their hi1hs earlier this 9earD are still ho=ering at ele=ated le=elsH which signi<ies strength. 2n a,,itionD the Euro&ean Central Ban3Gs three month auction saw less demand <or <unds last wee3 than was e)&ected D which su11ests that the <inancial industr; ma; not be as wea3 as man; ha=e s&eculated. >his &ositi=e grou& o< economic data suggests that the Euro#Qone econom; is not e actl9 on li<e su&&ort at the &resent time. +e will e;en 1o so :ar as to sa9 that a double di& recession is not in the cards in Euro&e A as lon1 as the current tren, ,oesnLt taper o::D that is.

Scholars
!"% Euro&e# !&

Euro&e reco=ering now# &olicies are e<<ecti=e and ban3s are raising <orecasts Chen ,/' C &u,9D 0eporter P /loomber1D Bloomber Business NewsD http:33www.businesswee-.com3news32%1%%"-%33eu-reco;er9-on-trac--ecb-s-tumpel-1u1erell-sa9s-up,ate1-.html D ".3.1%I E< &ul9 3 C/loomber1I ## Euro&e0s reco=er; <rom a debt crisis that roile, 1lobal mar-ets is Mwell on trac3DQ a member o: the European Central /an- 1o;ernin1 council sai, in )han1hai to,a9. T2e ha=e the right &olicies in &lace to ensure the return to the le=els o< growth we ha=e seen &rior to the crisisHO Gertru,e <umpel-Gu1erell tol, a :inancial con:erence in the cit9. T6ow interest rates all alon1 the mone9 mar-et 9iel, cur;eQ are cutting <unding costs. M>he econom; is e)&anding and we see a &ositi=e growth outloo3.Q <he central ban- on &une 1% raise, its euro-re1ion 1rowth :orecast :or this 9ear to 1 percentD :rom a pre;ious :orecast o: about %.# percent. <he EC/ has -ept its benchmar- interest rate at a recor, low o: 1 percent since .a9 2%%$.
Euro&e is im&lementing &olicies# will be sustainable Chen ,/' C &u,9D 0eporter P /loomber1D Bloomber Business NewsD http:33www.businesswee-.com3news32%1%%"-%33eu-reco;er9-on-trac--ecb-s-tumpel-1u1erell-sa9s-up,ate1-.html D ".3.1%I E< 9our areas o< &olic; are needed <or the reco=er; to be sustainable o=er the long term D sai, <umpelGu1erell. <hese are% structural changes to strengthen o=erall growth &ros&ectsR <inancial mar3et sector re=am&ingH which she ,escribe, as Twell on trac-RO <iscal consolidation which she also sai, is Twell on trac-RO and Mthe continuous concentration o< monetar; &olic; to be directed at medium term &rice stabilit;.O
E! won0t let econ di& again# o<<icials ma3ing stringent <iscal rules Chen ,/' C &u,9D 0eporter P /loomber1D Bloomber Business NewsD http:33www.businesswee-.com3news32%1%%"-%33eu-reco;er9-on-trac--ecb-s-tumpel-1u1erell-sa9s-up,ate1-.html D ".3.1%I E< E! o<<icials are de=ising :iscal rules to &re=ent a re&eat o< the Euro&ean so=ereign debt crisis D which was s&ar3ed when Greece0s budget s&iraled out o< control an, :orce, it to see- an EU-le, bailout. European leaders &lan to outline the strengthened en<orcement s;stem b9 =ctober a:ter hammerin1 out a "!% billion euro CO$3# billionI rescue pro1ram in .a9. <he ECB is bu;ing go=ernment bonds and lending ban3s as much mone; as the; need to contain the e<<ects o< the debt crisis D which has ,ri;en the euro ,own 14 percent a1ainst the ,ollar this 9ear.

Scholars
!"% Euro&e# Down

Growth in euro&e has lost &ace# slowdown is based o<< o< loss o< industries 9ore)trading &al ,/* Chttp:33www.:ore tra,in1pal.com3:ore -tra,in1-news32%1%3%"31rowth-europes-ser;icesan,-manu:acturin1-in,ustries-,ecelerate,3 D ".!.1%I E< Growth in Euro&ean ser=ices and manu<acturing industries lost &ace last month. It was the second month o< growth deceleration. >his second slowdown raises s&eculations that the reco=er; is wea3ening. A combined indicator based on an inJuir; o< eurozone &urchasing managers in both industries dro&&ed <rom *+.( in 4a; to *+ in &une. .ar-it Economics re;eale, these :i1ures to,a9. <he rea,in1 approaches last month's :orecast. An9 :i1ure abo;e !% means 1rowth. /u,1et problems Euro&e0s economic growth seems to decelerateD which is caused b; Greece0s budget &roblems. <he situation in Greece a<<ected in=estors0 con<idence and go=ernments had to in;ent se=ere measures. Con<idence amon1 German in;estors decreased last monthD while 1rowth o: the /ritish ser;ice sector ,ecelerate, last month. ?ol-swa1en AG is one o: those :irms that :ocus on emer1in1 mar-ets li-e the Chinese mar-et to increase sales.

Scholars
!"# /a&an

Scholars
!"% /a&an0s# !&

/a&an0s econom; will continue to grow# go=ernment stimulus and out&uts warrant 1ew >ang D;nast; >A ,#+ CNew Tan D"nast" Tele#isionD ".(.1%D
http:33en1lish.nt,t;.com3nt,t;Hen3nsHbus32%1%-%"-%(3!2$#$43#$1$1.htmlI E< /a&anGs tra,in1 partners ma9 be e periencin1 a slow,ownD but com&anies and the central ban3 in the worldGs *o. 2 econom; ha=e become more o&timistic. A /an- o: &apan sur;e9 last wee- showe, large manu<acturers with their best business con<idence in two ;earsH while the B?/ is e)&ected to re=ise u& its own growth :orecast soon. <he central ban- woul, hi-e GD6 to a 2.! percent 1rowth :orecast in the current 9earD up :rom an earlier 1.# percentD base, on stron1 e ports to Asia that ha;e booste, :actor9 output. +orries remain such as the euroJone ,ebt crisisD alon1 with the stren1th o: the U.). an, Chinese economiesD but the go=ernment has alread; hi3ed its own e)&ansion =iew to 2.+ &ercent <rom 1.( &ercent. /a&anGs econom; grew <aster than Euro&e and the !.S. in the <irst JuarterD but si1ns that e port stren1th ma9 be mo,eratin1 ha;e emer1e,. =n .on,a9D a senior /=& o::icial sai, Europe has ma,e little pro1ress in ,ealin1 with its problems an, it woul, ta-e time :or mar-et con:i,ence to return. E;en with the :orecast up1ra,eD some anal9sts sa9 the central ban- ma9 -eep its o;erall assessment unchan1e,D e9ein1 the risin1 9en an, :allin1 share mar-ets. <he 9en is near a se;en-month hi1h a1ainst the ,ollarD sen,in1 shares o: &apanese e porters to multi-month lows last wee-.

Scholars
!"% /a&an0s# Down

/a&an0s econom; <alling# stoc3sH rising unem&lo;mentH and slowing e)&orts 9uLio3a ,/+ C<oruD reporter P /loomber1D Bloomber Business week$ ".(.1%D
http:33www.bloomber1.com3news32%1%-%"-%(3Eapan-economic-in,e -:alls-:or-:irst-time-in-14-months-as-reco;er9slows.htmlI E< /a&an0s broadest indicator o< economic health dro&&ed :or the :irst time in 14 monthsD signaling the reco=er; is losing momentum a:ter reboun,in1 :rom the worst postwar recession. >he coincident inde)D a composite o: 11 in,icators inclu,in1 :actor9 pro,uction an, retail salesD <ell to 101.2 in 4a; :rom 1%1.3D the Cabinet =::ice sai, to,a9 in <o-9o. <he result matche, the me,ian estimate o: 1( economists sur;e9e,. <he report a,,s to e;i,ence that the world0s second# largest econom; is cooling a<ter growing * &ercent in the <irst Juarter. /a&anese stoc3s ha=e tumbled in recent wee3sD part o: a worl,wi,e slump that re:lects in;estor concern the 1lobal reco;er9 will :alter. T+ith pro,uction startin1 to slowD it0s hard to imagine that the econom; will sustain the &ace o< e)&ansion seen at the beginning o< the ;earDQ sai, Boshi-i )hin-eD senior economist at Dai-2chi 4i:e 0esearch 2nstitute in <o-9o. <he *i--ei 22! )toc- A;era1e rose %.( percent at 2:%! p.m. in <o-9oD re;ersin1 ,eclines o: as much as 1.$ percent. <he gauge has retreated 1- &ercent <rom this ;ear0s &ea3 on April !D e)acerbated b; gains in the ;en that threaten to erode e)&orters0 &ro<its. 7inance .inister Boshihi-o *o,a sai, to,a9 that he's Tclosel9Q watchin1 :inancial mar-ets. *ational )trate19 .inister )atoshi Arai sai, the slump in eNuities ,oesn't si1nal that the &apanese reco;er9 is :alterin1. )low to )prea, )hipments abroa, ha;e le, &apan's economic re;i;al that be1an in the secon, Nuarter o: last 9ear. 0ecent data suggest the bene<its are slow to s&read to householdsH whose outla;s account <or more than hal< o< the econom; . >he Lobless rate reached a <i=e#month high o< *.2 &ercent in .a9D househol, spen,in1 retreate, :or a secon, month an, :actor9 output slippe, %.1 percent :rom AprilD 1o;ernment reports showe, last wee-. >he leading inde)D a composite o: 12 in,icators inclu,in1 stoc- prices an, consumer con:i,enceH <ell to .-., in .a9D the secon, strai1ht ,eclineD to,a9's report showe,. Economists e pect &apan's annualiJe, Nuarterl9 1rowth will be below 2 percent at least until the mi,,le o: ne t 9earD accor,in1 to me,ian estimates.

Scholars
!"# !S

Scholars
!"% !S Econ# Down

!S econ sliding into de&ression# nobel &rize laureate warrants 9ilger ,/, C)hel,on- writer @ :oun,er o: 1lobal economic crisis.comD The %u&&in ton PostD ".".1%D
http:33www.hu::in1tonpost.com3shel,on-:il1er3belie:-that-us-is-in-an-eHbH(3!(!".html I E< &ust in the past wee-D economic media pun,its as ,i;erse as 1obel laureate 6aul :rugmanH who writes <or the 1ew Dor3 >imesH and Ambrose E;ans-8ritchardH the international business editor <or the British news&a&erD the <ele1raphD ha=e warned that the !nited States is alread; in the initial &hases o< an economic de&ression. >heir chill; characterization o< the !.S. econom; a:ter more than a 9ear o: the =bama stimulusD prece,e, b9 <A06D is sterile in its uninhibite, gloominess.
!S will slide into de&ression# home salesH colla&sed budgetsH and <iscal cuts 9ilger ,/, C)hel,on- writer @ :oun,er o: 1lobal economic crisis.comD The %u&&in ton PostD ".".1%D
http:33www.hu::in1tonpost.com3shel,on-:il1er3belie:-that-us-is-in-an-eHbH(3!(!".html I E< Ambrose E;ans-8ritchardGs most recent column ha, the melanchol9 headlineH I2ith the !.S. tra&&ed in de&ressionH this reall; is starting to <eel li3e 1.'2.K >e la9s out the case :or wh9 the !.S. is in the throes o< a de&ressionR dismal home and retail salesH colla&sing state budgets and the resultin1 <iscal cuts abetting e=en more bad economic indicators. 2n his e9esD the onl9 hope are the central ban-s en1a1in1 in another roun, o: Nuantitati;e easin1 Cbein1 ,ubbe, b9 some as QE 2I an, ,ebt monetiJationD the ine;itable in:lation actuall9 bein1 pre:erable to a ,e:lationar9 spiral.

Scholars
'0 Econ Growth Good/Bad
!"% !S Econ# Double Di& 1ow

>he econom; is headed into a double di& ( reasons# loss o< momentumH unem&lo;mentH D?2 downH and housing mar3et 5ugaber ,/2 CChristopherD A6 Economics writerD APD ".2.1%D
http:33www.1oo1le.com3hoste,news3ap3article3A4eN.!1*i9&$%!>o%Ur$(?2<Qhs/51$lGwD$G.0UUG%I E<
<he econom; is losing some momentumDK sai, 09an )weetD senior economist at .oo,9Ls Econom9.com. K2e need to see &ri=ate hiring reall; accelerate.I Anal9sts :orecast that em&lo;ers cut a net total o: 110H000 Lobs in /uneH which woul, be the nationLs :irst loss o: Eobs in si months. /ut that :i1ure inclu,es the e pecte, en, o: about 24%D%%% temporar9 census Eobs. Economists will :ocus more on pri;ate emplo9ersD who are :orecast to ha;e a,,e, 112D%%% positions. <hat woul, be the si th-strai1ht month o: 1ains an, an impro;ement :rom a wea- showin1 o: 41D%%% in .a9. But the unem&lo;ment rate is <orecast to tic3 u& to ..- &ercent <rom .., &ercent. <he report will be release, 7ri,a9 at #:3% a.m. A 1ain o: 112D%%% in pri;ate pa9rolls woul, si1nal the reco;er9 is on trac-D economists sai,. +ith a,,e, Eobs boostin1 incomes an, 1i;in1 consumers more mone9 to spen,D the econom9 woul, be able to -eep 1rowin1 e;en as the impact o: 1o;ernment stimulus pro1rams wanes. )tillD a 1ain o: about 1%%D%%% Eobs is barel9 enou1h to -eep up with population 1rowth. >he econom; needs to create Lobs at least at twice that &ace to Juic3l; bring down the Lobless rate. <he Eobs :i1ures will come a:ter a ra:t o: wea- reports <hurs,a9 pro;i,e, the stron1est e;i,ence 9et that the reco;er9 is slowin1. >he negati=e news added to concerns that the nation could be on its wa; bac3 into recession. 4ost notable was a rise in the number o< &eo&le <iling <or unem&lo;ment bene<its :or the :irst time. <he :our-wee- a;era1e :or Eobless claims now stan,s at its hi1hest point since .arch. <he blea- in,icators come Eust a:ter Con1ress a,Eourne, :or the holi,a9 wee-en, without e ten,in1 Eobless bene:its. =n top o: thatD the housing mar3et a&&ears to be slum&ing againH and the Dow /ones industrials closed down <or the si)th trading da; in a row. A,, in slower 1rowth in China an, the European ,ebt crisisD an, economists are scalin1 bac- their :orecasts :or the U.). K+hen 9ou a,, it all upD it ,oesnLt impl9 a ,ouble-,ipD but it ,oes su11est that 1rowth will be slower than weL, li-e to seeDK sai, )cott /rownD chie: economist at 0a9mon, &ames. $ double#di& recession ha&&ens when an econom; shrin3sH then begins to e)&and again be<ore going bac3 into re=erse. Economists ,onLt a1ree on a more precise ,e:inition.

Scholars
!"% !S Econ# Down

!S Econom; down# unem&lo;ment B international mar3et crisis 2illis ,/2 C/obD 0eporter P /loomber1D Bloomber NewsD http:33www.bloomber1.com3news32%1%-%"%23pa9rolls-in-u-s-probabl9-,roppe,-in-Eune-as-1o;ernment-cut-census-wor-ers.html D ".2.1%I E< Em&lo;ment <ell in /une :or the :irst time this 9earD re<lecting a dro& in <ederal census wor3ers as the ,ecennial &o&ulation count began to wind downH economists sai, be:ore a report to,a9. 8a;rolls declined b; 1'0H000 last monthD accor,in1 to the me,ian estimate o: #2 economists sur;e9e, b9 /loomber1 *ews. 6ri;ate emplo9mentD which e clu,es 1o;ernment EobsD rose :or a si th consecuti;e monthD the sur;e9 showe,. >he &ace o< hiring signals it will ta3e ;ears :or the worl,'s lar1est econom9 to reco=er the more than - million Lobs lost during the recession that be1an in December 2%%". >he turmoil in <inancial mar3ets brou1ht on b9 the European ,ebt crisis raises the ris3 that em&lo;ment will slowH de&ri=ing $merican households o< the income nee,e, to maintain spen,in1. M>he reco=er; downshi<ted a gear in recent monthsHO sai, Da;i, 0eslerD chie: economist at *omura )ecurities 2nternational 2nc. in *ew Bor-. 8a;roll gains will &robabl; be Mconsistent with moderate growth in income and s&ending.O
$merica still not reco=ering# lac3 o< con<idence and s&ending 1ews Center ,/, CNews Center$ ".".1%D http:33www.mone9control.com3news3worl,-news31eithner-sa9s-us-still:eelin1-paincrisisH4(#32$.htmlI E< U) >reasur; Secretar; <imoth9 Geithner said on <ues,a9 he was con<ident the !S econom; would continue to grow as it repairs ,ama1e :rom the :inancial crisisH but conce,e, that reco=eries are Ine=er e=enH ne=er stead;.I GeithnerD in a tele;ision inter;iew with 6/) *ews>ourD said the econom; was still <eeling the Ilasting e<<ectsI o< damage to business and consumer con<idence :rom the :inancial crisis an, $mericans are still s&ending cautiousl;.
$nd america0s econom; still declining# home crisis with no relie< in sight 1ews Center ,/, CNews Center$ ".".1%D http:33www.mone9control.com3news3worl,-news31eithner-sa9s-us-still:eelin1-paincrisisH4(#32$.htmlI E< I2eG=e seen a little concern about Euro&e wash across the $merican econom;DK he sai,. <he <reasur9 chie: reiterate, his ;iew that Euro&e would manage its debt &roblems D a,,in1 that o::icials there were Kta-in1 the steps that the9 nee, to ma-e sure that the9Lre 1rowin1 a1ain.K $s3ed about the downturn in stoc3 mar3ets in recent wee3sH Geithner said mar3ets had seen a long run o< im&ro=ement that boosted con<idenceD but a,,e,% IDou 3nowH reco=eries are ne=er e=enH ne=er stead;.K Geithner sai, he belie;e, that the :inancial re:orm bill now be:ore Con1ress Kloo-s li-e itLs 1oin1 to passDK a,,in1 that the le1islation woul, better protect Americans :rom :inancial :rau, an, abuse an, will limit ris--ta-in1 b9 :inancial institutions. @e also de<ended the ?bama administrationGs e<<orts to stem <oreclosures D sa9in1 that such pro1rams ha, allowe, millions o: Americans to bene:it :rom more stable home prices an, ha, re,uce, monthl9 pa9ments :or more than a million homeowners. But he said the; would not reach man; &eo&le hurt b; the housing crisisD such as in;estors who were speculatin1 on prices. >he bene<its IdonGt go the most <ortunate $mericans who bought =er;H =er; e)&ensi=e homes or a second homeH K Geithner sai,. K<he9Lre not 1oin1 to reach people who lie, about their incomeD were unable to pro;e that the9 ha, income werenLt able to pro;e the9 were eli1ible.K

Scholars
!"% !S Econ #Down

Economic reco=er; is coming but it0s unstable 2all Street /ournal +#'0 Chttp:33online.wsE.com3article3/<-C=-2%1%%(3%-"112(#.html D !all Street JournalD
(.3%.1%I E< +hile serious ris3s remain <or the !.S. economic reco=er; D the econom; should be able to heal at a modest &ace as unem&lo;ment <alls 1ra,uall9D Atlanta 7e,eral 0eser;e 6resi,ent Dennis 4oc-hart sai, +e,nes,a9. >owe;erD the !.S. economic reco=er; still lac3s a solid baseD lea;in1 polic9ma-ers to hol, to a 1uar,e, polic9 stanceD 4oc-hart sai,. 0ecent U.S. economic data ha=e been wea3erD he sai,D an, man; uncertainties still surround the reco=er;H inclu,in1 :iscal troubles in the euro JoneD on1oin1 state an, local :iscal ti1htenin1D the commercial real-estate mar-et an, ...

Scholars
'' Econ Growth Good/Bad
!"% !S Econ# Down $ndH regulators are withholding numbers to a=oid destro;ing consumer con<idence 1zherald ,/- CThe Chan in !orldD ".#.1%D http:33www.nJheral,.co.nJ3business3news3article.c:mF
cHi,G3@obEecti,G1%(!"2$"I E< European ban3ing regulators ha=e told lenders that their &lanned stress tests might assume a loss o< about 1, &er cent on Gree3 go=ernment debt and ' &er cent on S&anish bondsD /loomber1 *ews reporte,D citin1 two people brie:e, on the tal-s. >here were unli3el; to be so#called haircuts on German go=ernment securities un,er the stress tests bein1 o;erseen b9 the Committee o: European /an-in1 )uper;isorsD sai, the peopleD who ,ecline, to be i,enti:ie, because the tal-s are pri;ate. <he CE/) was still weighing how much data to disclose and whenD a European Union o::icial :amiliar with the tal-s tol, /loomber1.
Consumer con<idence on the rise now Geithner ,/+ C<imoth9D U) treasur9 secretar9D ImarketnewsD "-(-1%D http:33imar-etnews.com3FNGno,e31(%31I E<
.0. 4E>0E0: /ut i: itLs 1oin1 so wellD then wh9 ,o so man9 people :eel it isnLt 1oin1 so wellF )EC. GE2<>*E0: A1ainD becauseD a1ainD the scars o< this crisis were traumatic. 8eo&le e)&erienced something the; hadnGt e)&erienced in their li<etimeH which is to see the =alue o< their sa=ings &lummet. $ terrible blow to basic con<idence. An, ;ouGre still seeing lasting e<<ects o< that damage on business con<idence and how &eo&le <eel about their basic li=es. 6eople :eelD un,erstan,abl9D still a little cautiousD a little tentati;e. +eL;e seen a little concern about Europe wash across the American econom9. /ut 9ou -nowD no reco=eries are e=en and stead;. /ut what 9ou can sa9 to,a9 with con:i,ence is weGre in a much stronger &osition toda; than we were 1- months agoH a much stronger &osition to deal with our challenges ahead and weGre going to continue to wor3 to ma3e sure we ma3e &rogress and restore repairin1 what was ,ama1e,D restorin1 a basic sense o: con:i,ence to American businesses an, American :amilies.
Economic reco=er; shown b; increased consumer con<idence Geithner ,/+ C<imoth9D U) treasur9 secretar9D ImarketnewsD "-(-1%D http:33imar-etnews.com3FNGno,e31(%31I E<
.0. 4E>0E0: )pea-in1 o: con:i,enceD has the ,ownwar, mo;es o: the stoc- mar-et in the last se;eral ,a9s an, wee-s ,oes that trouble 9ouF )EC. GE2<>*E0: +ellD a1ainD 9ou ha, a we had a long run o< im&ro=ing mar3ets. @ome =alues were more stableD the =alue o< &eo&lesG sa=ings increasing again. An, thatGs =er; good. ItGs a sign o< greater con<idence again. An, a1ainD 9ouL;e seen 9ou -nowD reco=eries are ne=er e=enH ne=er stead;. Bou see a little bit o: concern comin1 :rom Europe about their capacit9 to mana1e throu1h these problems. /ut 2 thin3 the; will manage through their &roblems in Euro&e. 2 thin- the9Lre ta-in1 the steps the9 nee, to ta-e to ma-e sure that the9Lre 1rowin1 a1ain.
Econom; reco=ering# consumer con<idence 2illis +/2- C/ruceD /usiness sta:: writerD Bloomber D http:33www.businesswee-.com3news32%1%-%(-2#3u-seconom9-income-1ains-boost-spen,in1-sa;in1s.html D (.2#.1%I E< )toc-s ,roppe, as shares o< energ; &roducers <ell in conLunction with oil &rices. <he )tan,ar, @ 6oor's !%% 2n,e ,ecrease, %.2 percent to close at 1D%"4.!". >reasur; securities Lum&edH sending the ;ield on the benchmar3 10# ;ear note down to '.02 &ercent at 4:%$ p.m. in *ew Bor- :rom 3.11 percent late on &une 2!. E cee,s 7orecast <he me,ian estimate o: (1 economists sur;e9e, b9 Bloomberg news called <or a 0.1 &ercent gain in s&ending. 6roEections ran1e, :rom an increase o: %.3 percent to a %.! percent ,rop. TConsumers are less cautious than the; were &re=iousl9DQ 0obert
*ibloc-D chie: e ecuti;e o::icer at 4owe's Cos.D the secon,-lar1est home-impro;ement chainD sai, in a &une 23 telecon:erence. T/ut the9 still -now that we're still not out o: the woo,s 9et.

Scholars
'( Econ Growth Good/Bad
!"% !S Econ# Down

$merican e)&orts sto& economic decline# growing now Geithner ,/+ C<imoth9D U) treasur9 secretar9D ImarketnewsD "-(-1%D http:33imar-etnews.com3FNGno,e31(%31I E<
2: 9ou loo- across the rest o: the worl, ChinaH IndiaH BrazilH 4e)ico emerging mar3ets are =er; strong now. An, $merica is =er; good at &roducing the things those countries need. 2e ha=e the most &roducti=e wor3ers in the world. ?ur great com&anies o&erate at the <rontier o< inno=ation across the thin1s that are so important to 1rowth aroun, the worl,. An, thatGs one reason wh; we came out o< this crisis more Juic3l; than other countries. $nd againH weGre going to continue to ma3e &rogressH &im.

Scholars
'* Econ Growth Good/Bad
!"% !S Econ# !&

$nd econom; on the rise# housing &rices Geithner ,/+ C<imoth9D U) treasur9 secretar9D ImarketnewsD "-(-1%D http:33imar-etnews.com3FNGno,e31(%31I E<
An, when the &resident came inD most <orecasters thought house &rices could <all another '0 &ercent. But in :actD weG=e seen almost 1- months o< basic stabilit; in house &rices because o< the actions the &resident too3. ItGs much more a<<ordable now to borrow to <inance a houseD to re:inance. $nd the &resident has &ut in &lace a series o< &rograms to gi=e more $mericans a chance to 3ee& their homeH i: the9 can a::or, to ,o that. An, these &rograms are hel&ing to lower their monthl; &a;ments . /ut a1ainD the housing mar3etGs still =er; hard =er; tough out there. An, a lot o: challen1es still ahea,. /ut that basic measure o< &rogressH which is a little more stabilit; and the =alue &eo&le is enormousl; im&ortant.

Scholars
'+ Econ Growth Good/Bad
!"% !S Econ# !&

$merican incomes growing C causing economic growth 2illis +/2- C/ruceD /usiness sta:: writerD Bloomber D http:33www.businesswee-.com3news32%1%-%(-2#3u-seconom9-income-1ains-boost-spen,in1-sa;in1s.html D (.2#.1%I E< Incomes grew <aster than s&ending in .a9D ma3ing it &ossible <or $merican households to simultaneousl; increase sa=ings and su&&ort the economic reco=er;. Gains in &a;rollsH longer wor3wee3s and rising &a; gi=e $mericans more con<idence and the means to maintain s&endin 1 in comin1 months. <he 7e,eral 0eser;e's ,ecision last wee- to 3ee& interest rates unchanged ma; hel& households weather the <allout <rom the Euro&ean debt crisisH unemplo9ment ho;erin1 near a 2(- 9ear hi1h an, ti1ht cre,it. T<he consumer is <inall; starting to see some &ositi=e wage gains as the Lob mar3et starts to im&ro=e DQ sai, =mair )hari:D an economist at 0/) )ecurities 2nc. in )tam:or,D Connecticut. T Consumer s&ending isn't 1oin1 to propel the reco;er9 :orwar,D but it should be more than enough to sustain it. =;erallD this was a :airl9 soli, report.Q
Econom; reco=ering# &rice measuresH consumer s&endingH and economic growth 2illis +/2- C/ruceD /usiness sta:: writerD Bloomber D http:33www.businesswee-.com3news32%1%-%(-2#3u-seconom9-income-1ains-boost-spen,in1-sa;in1s.html D (.2#.1%I E< >he 9ed0s &re<erred &rice measureD which e clu,es :oo, an, :uelD rose 0.2 &ercent in .a9 :rom the prior monthD e)ceeding the 0.1 &ercent median estimate o< economists sur=e;ed . <he 7e, last wee- sai, the labor mar3et is Mim&ro=ing graduall;DQ chan1in1 April's assessment that it was Tbe1innin1 to impro;e.Q Consumer spen,in1 still Tremains constraine,Q b9 Eoblessness an, Tti1ht cre,itDQ it sai,. Durable Goo,s A,Euste, :or in:lationD &urchases rose 0.' &ercent last month a:ter little chan1e in April. 6rice-a,Euste, spen,in1 on ,urable 1oo,sD inclu,in1 automobiles an, appliancesD increase, 1.1
percent a:ter a %.! percent ,rop. Deman, :or non,urable 1oo,s ,ecrease, %.2 percentD the :irst ,ecline this 9earD while spen,in1 on ser;ices increase, %.3 percent. Con<idence among !.S. consumers rose in /une to the highest le=el since /anuar; 200-D indicating the decline in stoc3 &rices &rom&ted b; the Euro&ean debt crisis has <ailed to weigh on sentimentD :i1ures :rom <homson 0euters3Uni;ersit9 o: .ichi1an showe, last wee-. <he 1roup's :inal sentiment in,e increase, to "( :rom "3.( in .a9. <he in,e has a;era1e, #4.! o;er the past ,eca,e. Consumer s&ending grew at a ' &ercent annual pace in the :irst three months o: 2%1%D less than pre;iousl9 estimate,D the Commerce Department sai, last wee-. <he report showe, the econom; grew 2., &ercent in the <irst Juarter. Economists sur;e9e, this month proEecte, purchases will e pan, at a 3 percent rate in the April-to-&une perio, an, 2.( percent in the secon, hal: o: the 9ear.

Scholars
', Econ Growth Good/Bad
!"% !S Econ# !&

Econom; on the road to reco=er;# in=estment is growing and sa=ings sto&&ed <alling Geithner ,/+ C<imoth9D U) treasur9 secretar9D ImarketnewsD "-(-1%D http:33imar-etnews.com3FNGno,e31(%31I E<
.0. 4E>0E0: @as the economic reco=er; ta3en a sudden turn <or the worseF )EC. GE2<>*E0: &imD the econom; is healingH itGs getting stronger and IGm =er; con<ident weGre going to continue to grow and continue to ma3e &rogress not Eust repairin1 the ,ama1e cause, b; this crisis but building a stronger econom; thatGs going to create better o&&ortunities :or all Americans. .0. 4E>0E0: /ut it ,oesnLt seem that wa9. All the current thin1s the stoc- mar-etD Eobless rates weLll 1o throu1h these speci:icall9 in a momentD but thereLs a :eelin1 that thin1s there mi1ht e;en be a ,ouble-,ip recession comin1. Bou ,onLt :eel thatF )EC. GE2<>*E0: +ellD &imD 2 thin- itLs important to reco1niJe that the scars o< this crisis cut =er;H =er; dee&. 2 meanD Eust remember what it was li3e a ;ear and a hal< ago. 8eo&le across the countr; saw their sa=ings <all b; more than (0 &ercent. >housands o: businesses were closin1 their ,oors. .illions o: Americans lost their Eobs. 2n &anuar9 alone o: 2%%$D 9ou -nowD the econom9 lost three-Nuarters o: a million Eobs. /ut weG=e now had si) months o< sustained growth in Lobs b; the &ri=ate sector. E)&orts are doing relati;el9 wellH in=estment is increasing an, 9ou can see companies across this countr9 in hi1h tech an, lots o: other in,ustries ,oin1 ;er9 well because we are a ;er9 resilient countr9D ;er9 stron1 countr9. An, this &resident acted with enormous &olitical courage to rescue the econom; . >e too- some ;er9 tou1h steps not popular steps to rescue the econom9D :i the :inancial s9stem earl9 an, ta-e on the tou1h re:orms. An, because he ,i, thatD weLre 1oin1 to emer1e :rom this stron1er.

Scholars
'Econ Growth Good/Bad
!"% !S Econ# !&

$nd econom; rebounding# s&ending on home im&ro=ement and <ederal ta) credits Businesswee3 ,/, CBloomber Businessweek$ "3"31%D
http:33www.businesswee-.com3ap3:inancialnews3D$GQ$QAG%.htm I E< !.S. s&ending on home im&ro=ement proEects ma; rebound modestl; this ;ear as a graduall; im&ro=ing econom; and a more stable housing mar3et boost con<idenceD 7itch 0atin1s sai, +e,nes,a9. 7itch sai, the home im&ro=ement industr; is showing earl; signs o< a moderate reco=er; :rom a three-9ear ,ecline. <he ratin1s a1enc9 also cite, earl9 in,ications that homeowners are Ksomewhat more willingI to ta3e on &roLects an, purchases that are consi,ere, ,iscretionar9. 9itch &roLects home im&ro=ement s&ending to rise '.* &ercent this 9ear. 1ear#term s&ending also ma; be boosted b; congressional e<<orts to e pan, :e,eral incenti;es :or ener19-e::icient home impro;ement proEects. KA,,itional <ederal ta) credits in the hands o< homeowners ma; add incenti=e to com&lete certain energ;#sa=ing home im&ro=ement &roLectsDK sai, 0obert 0ullaD a 7itch ,irector. 7itch sai, its outloo3 <or im&ro=ement is clouded b; ris3s such as continuing high unem&lo;ment and wea3 consumer con<idence. Consumer cre,it stan,ar,s also remain ti1htD although ban3s a&&ear to be easing credit standards <or some consumer loansD 7itch sai,
!S econom; is reco=ering slowl; but surel; 2illis ,/2 C/obD 0eporter P /loomber1D Bloomber NewsD http:33www.bloomber1.com3news32%1%-%"%23pa9rolls-in-u-s-probabl9-,roppe,-in-Eune-as-1o;ernment-cut-census-wor-ers.html D ".2.1%I E< T2e do belie=e the reco=er; is under wa;HO Allen sai,. T+e ,o belie=e it is mo=ing slowl;. +e ,o belie;e it is on stable ground at this time.O 4anu<acturers ha;e a=oided the worst o< the mar3et turmoil. <he )tan,ar, @ 6oor's )upercomposite 2n,ustrial .achiner9 2n,e o: !2 companiesD inclu,in1 Caterpillar 2nc. an, DeereD has ,ecrease, %.1 percent so :ar this 9ear compare, with a ".$ percent ,ecline in the broa,er )@6 !%%. 6resi,ent /arac- ?bamaH a:ter meetin1 with 7e,eral 0eser;e Chairman /en ). /ernan-e &une 2$D said the !.S. econom; is strengthening e=en as the Euro&ean debt crisis has wea3ened <inancial mar3ets . T+e ha;e seen some ;er9 positi;e tren,s in a number o: sectorsDQ =bama sai, at the +hite >ouse a:ter meetin1 with his economic a,;isers. TUn:ortunatel9D because o< the troubles we0=e seen in Euro&eH we0re now seeing some headwinds and s3ittishness and ner=ousness on the &art o< the mar3ets .Q *o;ember Elections <he econom9D Eobs an, the bu,1et ,e:icit are li-el9 to be top issues in *o;ember elections that will ,eci,e control o: Con1ress. >ea,in1 into the campai1n seasonD the a,ministration is :acin1 public pessimism about the ,irection o: the econom9. >he 9ed last month said slowing in<lation and the <allout <rom Euro&e0s debt crisis where among reasons it will maintain interest rates low <or Man e)tended &eriod. Q Delta Air 4ines 2nc.D the worl,'s bi11est carrierD is startin1 to a,, sta::. Atlanta-base, Delta will hire "%% airport tic-et an, 1ate a1ents to help han,le increase, summer tra::ic an, operations ,isrupte, b9 weatherD Chris 8ell9D a Delta spo-eswomanD sai, &une 1# in an inter;iew. <he new positions are in a,,ition to the 3%% pilot an, 3%% reser;ation a1ent Eobs recentl9 :ille, b9 the Atlanta-base, airline.

Scholars
'. Econ Growth Good/Bad
!"% !S Econ# !&

!S econom; is on rise# relati=e to world Shah ,/, C>arenD senior in;estment specialist at Citi 6ri;ate /an-D The Business TimesD ".".1%D
http:33www.businesstimes.com.s13sub3;iews3stor93%D4!"4D3$3#%2D%%.html I E< 9or nimble in=estorsD these moments o: ;olatilit9 ma; ;ield good trading o&&ortunities - an, are unli-el9 to ,erail the :un,amentall9 bullish lon1-run outloo- :or emer1in1 mar-ets. E=en i< ChinaH and $sia o=erallH &ro=e unable to esca&e the c;cle o< bubble and bustH these economies remain well#&laced to continue enLo;ing e)traordinar; growth o=er the ne)t <ew decades. A1ainst this bac3dro&H emerging mar3ets remain &re<erred o=er de=elo&ed onesH as in=estors are li3el; to recognise their strong economic <undamentals and 3ee& ca&ital <lowing into these more =ibrant mar3ets . Amon1 the ,e;elope, mar-etsD the !S is loo3ing the most attracti=eH buo;ed b; robust economic momentum o< its econom;.
$merican econom; growing# re<orms Geithner +/2+ C<imD U) )ec o: <reasur9D (.2(.1%D 'ondo (isioneD http:33www.mon,o;isione.com3in,e .c:mF
sectionGnews@actionG,etail@i,G$12$" I E< =ur 1rowth strate19 in the Unite, )tates has three essential elements. 7irstD we &ut in &lace a =er; &ower<ul emergenc; &rogram to su&&ort demandH su&&ort growthH and <i) what was bro3en in our <inancial s;stem. )econ,D alon1si,e those actionsD the 8resident is enacting re<orms to su&&ort <uture growth and inno=ation ## :rom e,ucation an, health care an, :inancial re:orm to in;estments in research an, ,e;elopment an, in:rastructureD an, incenti;es :or more e::icient an, cleaner ener19 technolo1ies.
$merican econom; growing# de<icit reduction

Geithner +/2+ C<imD U) )ec o: <reasur9D (.2(.1%D 'ondo (isioneD http:33www.mon,o;isione.com3in,e .c:mF
sectionGnews@actionG,etail@i,G$12$" I E< An, :inall9D the 8resident has outlined actions to reduce our <uture de<icits -- as reco;er9 stren1thensD to re,uce those ,e:icits to a sustainable position so that the9 ,o not harm :uture economic 1rowth.<hese actions to re,uce our ,e:icits will reduce our de<icits b; more than hal< as a share o< the econom; o=er the ne)t <our ;ears D which is amon1 the steepest ,eclines proEecte, across the G". *owD these re<orms are essential to im&ro=ing the <undamental strengths o< our econom;. <his strate19 we a,opte, in the Unite, )tates re:lects the basic lessons o: the :inancial crisisD an, those lessons are: 2n a crisisD 9ou ha;e to act with a commitment that matches the scale o: the problem. <he Nuic-er 9ou actD the more e::ecti;e the response. Growth is not &ossible without a strong <inancial s;stem. 4ar3ets &enalize uncertaint;. <he role o: the 1o;ernment is to create the con,itions :or the pri;ate sector to in;est an, 1row. Bou ha;e to :ocus on the reNuirements o: :uture 1rowthD inclu,in1 :iscal sustainabilit9D e;en as 9ou con:ront the imme,iate challen1e o: li:tin1 an econom9 out o: crisis. An, these lessons must continue to 1ui,e our strate19 as we con:ront the challen1es still ahea,.
!S econom; growing# ?bama Geithner +/2+ C<imD U) )ec o: <reasur9D (.2(.1%D 'ondo (isioneD http:33www.mon,o;isione.com3in,e .c:mF
sectionGnews@actionG,etail@i,G$12$" I E< *owD in a,,ition to these 1rowth an, :inancial re:orm prioritiesD the lea,ers will re;iew pro1ress on a ran1e o: other important share, 1oalsD :rom promotin1 :oo, securit9 to phasin1 out :ossil :uel subsi,iesD :rom e pan,in1 tra,e to a,,ressin1 climate chan1e an, combatin1 corruption. >he world has now seen 8resident ?bama mo=e Juic3l; and <orce<ull; to the challenges we <ace in the !nited StatesH and the;0=e seen the !nited States wor3 =er; hard to build a =er; strongH coo&erati=e international res&onse to the challenges <acing the world. <he G2% has ma,e these last 1# months the most e::ecti;e perio, o: international economic cooperation we ha;e seen in 1enerations. An, here in Cana,aD we want to come together to build on that record.

Scholars
(0 Econ Growth Good/Bad
!"# 2orld

Scholars
!"% 2orld Econ# Down Global currencies <alling# dollar and euro show declining econ 1zherald ,/- CThe Chan in !orldD ".#.1%D http:33www.nJheral,.co.nJ3business3news3article.c:mF
cHi,G3@obEecti,G1%(!"2$"I E< >he Dollar Inde)D which measures the 1reenbac- a1ainst a bas-et o: si maEor currenciesD <ell 0.'( &er cent to -'.,.. >he euro <ell <rom se=en#wee3 highs a1ainst the U) ,ollar ami, concern about the 1lobal economic outloo- an, the start o: the stress tests on European ban-s: $1 ban-s were to be e amine,. Euro&ean regulators on +e,nes,a9 haggled o=er what details to re=ealD a ,ispute that could undermine con<idence in the health chec-s on the regionGs lenders. 2orse#than#e)&ected data showed <actor; orders in German;D the euro JoneLs lar1est econom9H <ell <or the <irst time this ;ear in 4a;. <he euro :ell %.2 per cent to U)O1.2!$2 a:ter reachin1 U)O1.2((3 on tra,in1 plat:orm E/) on <ues,a9.
Global econom; is slowing# multi&le growth measurements warrant 4oenning ,/+ C,a;i,D pro:essional mone9 mana1er an, is the 6resi,ent an, Chie: 2n;estment )trate1istD
iStockanal"stD http:33www.istoc-anal9st.com3article3;iewarticle3articlei,342#(%33 I E< >owe;erD while it a&&ears that the Euro#Qone is holding u&H the global econom; is a di<<erent stor;. Data released recentl9 suggests that a slowdown in economic growth a&&ears to be occurring. 7or e ampleD the *AC. Cre,it .ana1ersL in,e ,roppe, 1.# points to !4.1 in &uneD in,icatin1 worsening credit conditions in the !nited States. >he decline was the largest since December 200- D an, a::ecte, both ser;ices an, manu:acturin1 sectors. 4en,in1 and credit ha=e also tightened in the &ast <ew wee3sD thou1h this is lar1el9 attribute, to companies bein1 more ,ili1ent about not o;ere ten,in1 themsel;es an, protectin1 a1ainst ris-. *e t upD the Global 4anu<acturing 84I Cpurchasin1 mana1ersL in,e I <ell once again in /uneD dro&&ing 1.. &oints to !!.%. >his also mar3s the most drastic monthl; decline since 200-D an, the in,e now sits at 9earl9 lows. >owe;erD the in,e is still well abo;e its a;era1e o: !1.( since 1$$#D which in,icates continue, 1rowthD albeit at a slower pace.
2orld econom; e)&ected to decline# growth slowing 5ugaber ,/2 CChristopherD A6 Economics writerD APD ".2.1%D
http:33www.1oo1le.com3hoste,news3ap3article3A4eN.!1*i9&$%!>o%Ur$(?2<Qhs/51$lGwD$G.0UUG%I E<
=ther economists e)&ect growth to slow to an anemic 2 &ercent in the second hal< o< this ;ear. >hat probabl9 wouldnGt reduce the unem&lo;ment rateD currentl9 at .., &ercent. 2n a new si1n o: Eob-mar-et wea-nessD initial claims <or unem&lo;ment Lum&ed b; 1'H000 last wee- to a seasonall9 a,Euste, 4"2D%%%. >he <our#wee3 a=erageD which smooths :luctuationsD rose to its highest le=el in more than three months. Claims 1enerall9 nee, to ,rop below 4%%D%%% to si1nal that hirin1 is rampin1 up. >he rebound so :ar has been <ueled mostl9 b; go=ernment stimulus s&endingH manu:acturin1 acti;it9 an, business spen,in1 on new eNuipment an, in;entoriesD an, those :actors are :a,in1. 2tLs happenin1 as new threats emer1e: Stoc3 mar3ets are <alling and home &rices could dro& againH lowerin1 househol, wealth. Americans coul, respon, b9 cuttin1 bac- on spen,in1 an, wea-enin1 the reco;er9. 4anu<acturers re&orted <hurs,a9 that e)&ort orders grew at a slower &ace in /une than the &re=ious month. 1ew sur=e;s suggested growth in China is slowingD which coul, lea, it to import :ewer American pro,ucts. .eanwhileD go=ernments in the !nite, States and o=erseas are cutting s&ending and reinin1 in stimulus measures. )ome economists worr; those ste&s are &remature as long as the econom; remains wea3. >here was also another <resh sign o< trouble in the housing mar3et . <he number o: bu9ers who si1ne, contracts to purchase homes tumble, 3% percent in .a9D the *ational Association o: 0ealtors sai,. Construction s&ending also declined <or the month. /oth were a::ecte, b9 the e piration o: 1o;ernment incenti;es to bu9 homes.

Scholars
!"% 2orld Econ# Down

Global econom; shrin3ing# lac3 o< growth and declining stoc3s 5euters ,/1 CReutersD http:33www.reuters.com3article3i,U)*%1124#!"2%1%%"%1 I E<
*E+ B=0834=*D=*D &ul9 1 C0eutersI - 4anu<acturing growth cooled around the world in /uneD with China hitting its slowest &ace in more than a ;ear and growth in the !nited States and Euro&e also easing -- :urther e=idence that the global economic reco=er; is moderating. A separate report on <hurs,a9 showe, big /a&anese manu<acturers une)&ectedl; turned o&timistic through mid#/une D but anal9sts worrie, that the positi;e outloo- :aile, to account :or the recent turmoil in the stoc- mar-et an, a rise in the 9en. W2D:n<=E((%%1CX Commodit; &rices <ell and stoc3 mar3ets slum&ed around the world a<ter the sur=e;s o< &urchasing managers added to concerns o=er the global outloo3. In Euro&eH shares <ell to a <i=e#wee3 closing lowD while on 2all Street !.S. shares su<<ered losses <or a <ourth straight session.
Global econom; shrin3ing# anal;sts down&la; it to a=oid crisis 5euters ,/1 CReutersD http:33www.reuters.com3article3i,U)*%1124#!"2%1%%"%1 I E<
8rices o< co&&er and crude oil both <ellD hit har, b9 a ,ecline in a 1au1e o: ChinaLs manu:acturin1 sector to a le=el Lust slightl; abo=e the mar3 that indicates e)&ansion. China is the worldGs biggest consumer o< co&&er and the second biggest consumer o< energ;. >he <all in ChinaGs growth also hel&ed dri=e /a&anese shares to a se=en#month closin1 low. /ut economists &la;ed down worries o< a &reci&itous slowdown in China ## which has &owered the world econom; in its reco=er; :rom recession -- an, sai, the ris- o: a ,ouble-,ip recession in in,ustrialiJe, +estern economies remaine, low. I9ears about hard landing are o=er&la;edHI sai, Qu >on1binD chie: economist :or China at >)/CD thou1h he note, that 1o;ernment steps to cool the propert9 mar-et an, curb ban- len,in1 appeare, also to be e::ectin1 manu:acturin1.
>he world econom; is declining# de&ends too much on debt and consum&tion :olesni3o=a +#2( C.ariaD /usinesswee- sta:: writerD Bloomber BusinessweekD
http:33www.businesswee-.com3news32%1%-%(-243worl,-:aces-more-economic-problems-in;estor-Eim-ro1erssa9s.html D (-24-1%I E< &une 24 C/loomber1I -- >he world will ha=e Mmore economic &roblemsO because it de&ends on Mtoo much debt and too much consum&tionDQ in;estor &im 0o1ers sai,. TI0m short stoc3s and long commoditiesDQ 0o1ers sai, b9 phone :rom >on1 8on1 to,a9. T$merica o< all things the; thin3 the solution to too much debt and too much consum&tion is more debt and more consum&tion. 2hich means the; are going to &rint e=en more mone;.O
Global econom; is down# china in=estment &lummeted it 9aber +#2. CDa;i,D C*/C Anchor an, 0eporterD CNBCD http:33www.cnbc.com3i,33#%%1("# I E<
>here0s no truer re<lection o< the world we li=e in than the mar3et0s action toda;. It re<lects the globalization o< our mar3etsD the emergence o< China as the economic engine o< the world and the <ear o< an economic slowdown that is stal3ing this mar3et. 4et's recount the ,a9's e;ents: In=estors in China begin selling shares based on the results o< a sur=e; o< their countr;0s economic &ros&ects that is com&iled b; a !.S. based researcher. <hat selling and concerns about slowing growth in China as a result o< this sur=e;Swhich onl9 be1an bein1 compile, last .a9Sh it Euro&e and then <ollow through to the !.S.H where eJuit; &rices decline b; roughl; 2.* &ercent and bond ;ields crumble in the <ace o< relentless bu;ing o< the two and ten ;ear !.S. >reasur; notes. 2s this reall9 the worl, that in;estors are ,estine, to inhabitF =ne where a pre;iousl9 obscure sur;e9 o: economic 1rowth in China has implications :or asset prices aroun, the 1lobeF At this pointD it is. An, that's because o: a 1lobal a;ersion to ris- that is :ocuse, on the :ear o: a si1ni:icant slow ,own in economic acti;it9.

Scholars
(' Econ Growth Good/Bad
!"% 2orld Econ# Down# Stoc3 4ar3et

Global stoc3s are down# shows econom; is wea3ening Barchart 5esearch >eam ,/, CInside FuturesD ".".1%D http:33www.insi,e:utures.com3article31(%2%"3/archart
R2%U.).R2%.ornin1R2%Call.html I E<
Global stoc3s are mostl; lower with the Euro&ean Euro Sto)) *0 Inde) down -%."%R and Se& SB8s down #2.#% points. >he dollar and >reasuries are stronger and most commodities are wea3er as stoc-s 1i;e bac- some o: <ues,a9Ls 1ains. >he 10#;ear S&anish bond ;ield rose ( bp a:ter the /an- o: )pain sai, the cost o: recapitaliJin1 an, reor1aniJin1 sa;in1s ban-s woul, represent 1.!R o: the econom9. <he ;ield &remium in=estors demand to hold S&anish 10#;ear bonds instead o< benchmar3 German debt widened # bp to 21( bp. Also adding to downside &ressure in Euro&ean stoc3s was the une)&ected -%.!R m3m decline in 4a; German <actor; or,ersD their :irst ,rop in the last ! monthsD as demand <or German goods wea3ened. C0> san- 1%R an, le, construction an, buil,in1 companies lower a:ter the worl,Ls secon,-lar1est ma-er an, ,istributor o: buil,in1 materials sai, :irst-hal: earnin1s be:ore interestD ta esD ,epreciation an, amortiJation probabl9 :ell about 2%RD with sales sli,in1 1%R. 4ar3s B S&encer sli&&ed '.-E e;en a:ter the U8Ls lar1est clothin1 retailer reporte, Q1 sales 1rowth o: 3.(RD beatin1 anal9stsL estimatesD a:ter it sai, a propose, increase in the U8 ;alue-a,,e, ta an, other measures to curb the countr9Ls ,e:icit are li-el9 to ,ampen consumer con:i,ence.
Global econ down# not enough &olicies to correct Shah ,/, C>arenD senior in;estment specialist at Citi 6ri;ate /an-D The Business TimesD ".".1%D
http:33www.businesstimes.com.s13sub3;iews3stor93%D4!"4D3$3#%2D%%.html I E<
Strong emerging mar3et growth is set against lagging e)&ansion in the 2estH while $siaGs in<lation#<ighting polic9ma-ers sJuare o<< against Euro&eGs <iscall; tied hands. As it stan,sD $sian go=ernmentsD :ace, with the threat o: in:lationD ha=e started to normalise <iscal and monetar; &olicies. ChinaD in particularD has mo=ed <airl; aggressi=el; to curb the ra&id rise o< real estate &rices. 2n contrastD those in the 2est ha=e been <airl; content to retain stimulator; &olicies - at least until Euro&eGs so=ereign debt crisis eru&ted. /e1innin1 with what seeme, li-e a peripheral problemD the continent - an, the worl, - was suc-e, into a spiral o: an iet9 as so;erei1n sol;enc9 :ears sprea, be9on, Greece. E::orts b9 EU polic9-ma-ers appear to ha;e success:ull9 stabilise, the conta1ion. /ut much more needs to be done to address the man; underl;ing <undamental issues that &lague the regionGs &eri&heral members.
Global econom; down# Euro&e Shah ,/, C>arenD senior in;estment specialist at Citi 6ri;ate /an-D The Business TimesD ".".1%D
http:33www.businesstimes.com.s13sub3;iews3stor93%D4!"4D3$3#%2D%%.html I E< 2n conclusionD balancin1 ris- to opportunit9 is 1oin1 to be -e9 to port:olio per:ormance in an en;ironment where eNuit9 mar-ets are e pecte, to remain ;olatile an, ran1e-boun, :or at least the rest o: the 9ear. E=en though we remain o&timistic about the long#term &ros&ects <or emerging mar3etsH es&eciall; in $siaH and remain c;clicall; &ositi=e on the !SH e=ents in Euro&e do &resent signi<icant short#term ris3s . 2n this scenarioD it is e;en more important to ensure that ,i;ersi:ication an, re1ular ris- assessments remain a :un,amental anchor to ensure balance, 1rowth in oneLs port:olio in these interestin1 times.
Global econom; unsure# &ublic debt and <iscal de<icit Shah ,/, C>arenD senior in;estment specialist at Citi 6ri;ate /an-D The Business TimesD ".".1%D
http:33www.businesstimes.com.s13sub3;iews3stor93%D4!"4D3$3#%2D%%.html I E< =n the other han,D medium#term worries about an o=er#le=eraged global econom; are probabl9 warranted. 8ublic debt in the ,e;elope, worl, has ballooned as go=ernments de&lo; massi=e amounts o< <iscal stimulus to &ro& u& economic acti=it9. 9iscal de<icits are starting to reach unsustainable le=els that necessitate spen,in1 cuts that are li-el9 to be a ,ra1 on economic 1rowthD es&eciall; in the industrialised nationsD :or man9 9ears to come. )tillD the e<<ects o< such <iscal tightening are unli3el; to be <elt immediatel; an, ma9 well be o;ercome e;entuall9 b9 1atherin1 momentum in the 1lobal reco;er9.

Scholars
(( Econ Growth Good/Bad
!"% 2orld Econ# !&

Global econom; rising# ChinaH IndiaH B5IC countriesH and Brazil
4oenning ,/+ C,a;i,D pro:essional mone9 mana1er an, is the 6resi,ent an, Chie: 2n;estment )trate1istD iStockanal"stD
http:33www.istoc-anal9st.com3article3;iewarticle3articlei,342#(%33 I E< )urprisin1l9D Euro#Qone countries lead the world in 84I growthH while countries such as ChinaH IndiaH and Brazil showed stabilization. Despite the Global .anu:acturin1 6.2 slow,ownD manu<acturing growth remains strongH with the latest 1lobal 6.2 rea,in1 sta9in1 consistent with 3.2R annualiJe, real GD6 1rowth in the G". <his woul, su11est that global economic e)&ansion will still ta3e &laceD ,espite bein1 a bit slu11ish. So i< the Euro#Qone is e)hibiting strengthH and B5IC regions are stabilizing a<ter a slowdown scare a <ew wee3s agoH what has been dri=ing !S eJuit; straight into the ground recentl;S 2t is our humble opinion that while the current data suggests the global econom; is a bit stronger than &re=iousl; thoughtH in=estors are still acting on the <ear o< what might ha&&en in the <utureD an, are tra,in1 on e pectations o: how thin1s will loo- b9 the en, o: the 9ear.
Global econom; loo3ing u&

Shah ,/, C>arenD senior in;estment specialist at Citi 6ri;ate /an-D The Business TimesD ".".1%D
http:33www.businesstimes.com.s13sub3;iews3stor93%D4!"4D3$3#%2D%%.html I E< 4$5:E>S seem to be emerging <rom a bad &atch o< turbulence but it ma; still be too earl; to turn o<< the seatbelt sign. >he &ast two months ha;e seen wil, swin1s across 1lobal :inancial mar-ets that woul, ha=e unsettled e=en the most seasoned o< in=estors. <hin1s ha;e calme, ,own somewhat in the past :ew wee-sD but clear s3ies ma; ;et be some distance awa;. 2hile Euro&e ma; ha=e a=erted disasterH its so=ereign debt &roblems are <ar <rom o=er. In ChinaH the ;uan is <inall; unshac3led <rom the dollar but it remains to be seen how <ar it will be allowed to gain on the greenbac- - itsel: ,o11e, b9 :resh concerns about U) 1rowth prospects.
Global Econom; growing# China Shah ,/, C>arenD senior in;estment specialist at Citi 6ri;ate /an-D The Business TimesD ".".1%D
http:33www.businesstimes.com.s13sub3;iews3stor93%D4!"4D3$3#%2D%%.html I E< 2n,ee,D emerging mar3etsD especiall9 in AsiaD are li-el9 to continue to grow strongl;D an, that seems to be underscored b; ChinaGs mo=e to allow greater <le)ibilit; in the ;uan e)change rate . +hile actual latitu,e :or 9uan appreciation has been :airl9 limite, an, 1ra,ualD the polic9 chan1e seems to si1nal that polic9-ma-ers are at least more con:i,ent about the outloo- :or the ,omestic econom9. 2n a,,itionD monetar; tightening in $sia ma; be dela;ed. Euro&eGs so=ereign debt &roblems are li-el9 to &rom&t &olic;#ma3ers to be a tad more circums&ect about 1lobal 1rowthH and hold o<< raising rates until later in the ;earH or e;en ne t 9ear . In the !SH momentum <rom the <irst hal< o< the ;ear is e)&ected to be su<<icient to 3ee& acti=it; growing through the rest o< the ;earH albeit at a more mo,erate pace. Unsurprisin1l9D Euro&e is set to bring u& the rear. Growth is e)&ected to be sluggish as :iscal ti1htenin1 is e pecte, to be a si1ni:icant ,ra1 e;en into 2%11.
Global econom; balancing act# instable in=estment and consum&tion Shah ,/, C>arenD senior in;estment specialist at Citi 6ri;ate /an-D The Business TimesD ".".1%D
http:33www.businesstimes.com.s13sub3;iews3stor93%D4!"4D3$3#%2D%%.html I E< 7or sureH a range#bound mar3et characterised b; much =olatilit; was &rett; much a gi=en this ;ear as the global econom; <aced its biggest test since the de&ths o< 4arch 200.. 2ith go=ernment stimulus &etering out - as it must ,o at some point - the Juestion was alwa;s whether &ri=ate in=estment and consum&tion had mended su<<icientl; to ta3e o=er the mantle o< cham&ioning global growth. 2e also antici&ated that this ;ear would see a greater di<<erentiation in economic &er<ormance and conditions across regions that woul, reNuire ,i;er1ent polic9 responses. )o :ar we ha=e largel; stuc3 to this <light &athH and we e)&ect to sta; the course throu1h the rest o< the ;earH with the global econom; caught in a balancing act.

Scholars
(* Econ Growth Good/Bad
!"% 2orld Econ# !&

>he world econom; is growing# <inancial re<orms Geithner +/2+ C<imD U) )ec o: <reasur9D (.2(.1%D 'ondo (isioneD http:33www.mon,o;isione.com3in,e .c:mF
sectionGnews@actionG,etail@i,G$12$" I E< )EC0E<A0B GE2<>*E0: >ow are 9ou allF *ice to see 9ou. 2t was sunn9 in +ashin1tonD 2 want to sa9D when 2 le:t. C4au1hter.I <he G20 leaders meet o=er the ne)t two da;s to ad=ance the goals o< growth and re<orm. +e come to Cana,a with a soli, trac- recor,: >he world econom; is now coming out o< the <ires o< the crisis. /ecause we acte, to1etherD the world econom; is now growing againH trade is e)&andingH and we are re&airing the <inancial damage. An, Eust in the past :ew wee-sD weL;e ma,e ;er9 important a,,itional steps :orwar,. >he !nited States is on the =erge o< enacting the strongest set o< re<orms ## <inancial re<orms ## since those that <ollowed the Great De&ression. >hese <inancial re<orms D which embrace the broa, principles set out b9 the G2%D will reduce the ris3 o< <uture <inancial crises and hel& ma3e sure our <inancial s;stem can better ser=e the interests o< 4ain Street $merica . An, these re<orms will hel& ma3e sure that the !nited States o< $merica is a source o< strength and stabilit; D rather than instabilit9D <or the world econom; in the :uture.
2orld Econom; is growing# Euro&eH ChinaH and !S all growing Geithner +/2+ C<imD U) )ec o: <reasur9D (.2(.1%D 'ondo (isioneD http:33www.mon,o;isione.com3in,e .c:mF
sectionGnews@actionG,etail@i,G$12$" I E< <he leaders o< Euro&e ha=e acted to establish a &ower<ul <inancial stabilit; pro1ram to stand behind their members that are underta3ing re<orms to address their <inancial challenges . An, Euro&e is now mo=ing to bring greater trans&arenc; an, a stron1er :inancial :oun,ation to its ban-in1 s9stem. China is acting to allow its e)change rate to a&&reciate in res&onse to mar3et <orce s. >his is a =er; im&ortant ste& towards hel&ing China better meet its own challenges and helpin1 &ro=ide a more le=el &la;ing <ield :or all its tra,in1 partners. >his is &rogressD but the scars o: the crisis are still with us. )o this summit must be :un,amentall9 about 1rowthD an, our challen1e as the G2% is to act to1ether to stren1then the prospects :or 1rowth. <his will reNuire ,i::erent strate1ies in ,i::erent countries. 2e are coming out o< this crisis at di<<erent s&eeds. /ut these meetin1s 1i;e us the chance to a,,ress how the other maEor economies o: the worl, are meetin1 this challen1e o: 1rowth.
2orld econom; growing# growth started with !S Geithner +/2+ C<imD U) )ec o: <reasur9D (.2(.1%D 'ondo (isioneD http:33www.mon,o;isione.com3in,e .c:mF
sectionGnews@actionG,etail@i,G$12$" I E< +hat we share in the G2% is a reco1nition that i< the world econom; is to e)&and at its &otentialD i: 1rowth is 1oin1 to be sustainable in the :utureD then we nee, to act to1ether to stren1then the reco;er9 an, :inish the Eob o: repairin1 the ,ama1e o: this crisis. An, we agree on the need to restore balance to a world econom; that had gotten dangerousl; out o< balance. <his reco=er; is now being led b; =er; strong growth in the emerging mar3ets and a solid e)&ansion in the !nited States . Growth started somewhat later in Euro&e and /a&an and it0s &roLected to be somewhat slower o=er timeH and it's still ,epen,ent on e ports to the rest o: the worl,.

Scholars
(+ Econ Growth Good/Bad
Double Di& !"

Scholars
(, Econ Growth Good/Bad
Brin3# Double Di& 5ecession

Stoc3 &rices &uts the econom; on the edge o< a double di& recession# an; more instabilit; will trigger it Baden ,/1 C/enD U) *ews )ta:: +riterD )S News * !orld Re+ortD "-1-1%D http:33:inance.9ahoo.com3news3#6roblems-<hat-Coul,-<ri11er-usnews-2%34%(!!13.htmlF G% I E< 2ith stoc3 &rices s&iraling downward and treasur; ;ields tan3ingH the mar3et has been sending a clear message this wee-: >he <ragile economic reco=er; is in trouble. /ut Eust how ba, is the outloo-F In the a<termath o< a blea3 second JuarterH e)&erts are still di=ided about the li3elihood o< a double#di& recession. +hatLs becomin1 clearer with each new reportD thou1hD is that the econom;##e=en i< it doesnGt double di&##is stea,il9 losing ground. >he economic souring isD o: courseD being s&earheaded b; a <amiliar cast o< characters: An anemic labor mar-etD a s-eptical consumer baseD a wea- housin1 mar-etD an, a 1lobal ,ebt crisis that threatens to o;erwhelm national 1o;ernmentsD Eust to name a :ew. 9urther deterioration in e=en one o< these arenas could be enough to trigger a double#di&H which is loosel9 ,e:ine, as a perio, ,urin1 which a reco;er9 is interrupte, b9 economic contractionD usuall9 in the :orm o: ne1ati;e GD6 1rowth.
2e0re on the brin3 o< a double colla&se Baden ,/1 C/enD U) *ews )ta:: +riterD )S News * !orld Re+ortD "-1-1%D http:33:inance.9ahoo.com3news3#6roblems-<hat-Coul,-<ri11er-usnews-2%34%(!!13.htmlF G% I E< 6eter 4oriciH a &ro<essor at the !ni=ersit; o< 4ar;landGs 0obert >. )mith School o< BusinessH is less o&timistic. .orici sa9s the li3elihood o< a double#di& is at least *0 &ercent. K+hatLs 1oin1 to happen here is either the econom; is not going to colla&seH or itGs going to a=alanche. /ecause once ;ou start c;cling downH then it de=elo&s a momentum o< itsel<. An, i< it goes down a second timeH then it becomes =er; di<<icult to resuscitate TitUHI he sa9s. 7or in;estorsD a ,ouble-,ipD i: it materialiJesD woul, be a throwbac- to 2%%#D with a :loun,erin1 econom9 punishin1 stoc- returns. &e:: <EornehoED 4ipperLs research mana1er :or the Unite, )tates an, Cana,aD sa9s the Dow &ones in,ustrial a;era1e coul, touch $D%%% b9 the close o: 2%1%. K2s it reasonable to e pect itF 2 thin- itLs reasonable to put some o,,s on itDK he sa9s.
?n the brin3# unem&lo;ment can &ush into a double di& Baden ,/1 C/enD U) *ews )ta:: +riterD )S News * !orld Re+ortD "-1-1%D http:33:inance.9ahoo.com3news3#6roblems-<hat-Coul,-<ri11er-usnews-2%34%(!!13.htmlF G% I E< +ith that in min,D !.S. 1ews has e)amined eight &henomena whichD 1i;en the ri1ht con,itionsH could send the econom;--an, the :inancial mar-ets--reeling. !nem&lo;ment. In the a<termath o< a recession that wi&ed out - million LobsD the lac-luster labor mar3et has perhaps been the biggest thorn in the side o< a sustainable economic reco=er;. /uneGs Eob re&ortD which is ,ue out 7ri,a9D will li-el9 dam&en the mood e=en <urther. *otabl9D the consensus &rediction is that the re&ort will indicate the econom; she, Eobs :or the :irst time since last 9ear. 2n 2%%# an, 2%%$D pa9rolls contracte, in 23 out o: the 24 monthsD but 9ear-to-,ate throu1h .a9D each month ha, seen positi;e Eobs 1rowth. )tillD the losses e)&ected in 9rida;Gs re&ort will lar1el9 stem <rom a drawdown in the number o: census wor3ers em&lo;ed b; the <ederal go=ernment. )ince these Eobs were alwa9s e pecte, to be temporar9D their ,isappearance :rom the pa9rolls isnLt much o: a ne1ati;e in,icator. >he bigger &roblemH economists sa9D is that e=en in months in which there was net Lob creationH the rate o< growth has been too slow. 2ithout robust Lob creation in the coming monthsH the wea3 labor mar3et could hel& thrust the econom; into a double#di& recession . K/9 the en, o: 2%11D we can 1et into the low teens i: thin1s reall9 come apartDK .orici sa9s o: the unemplo9ment rate.
Brin3# Double Di& 1ot Coming

$nd the double di& isn0t coming# recessions &ro=ed

Scholars
(Econ Growth Good/Bad
Baden ,/1 C/enD U) *ews )ta:: +riterD )S News * !orld Re+ortD "-1-1%D http:33:inance.9ahoo.com3news3#6roblems-<hat-Coul,-<ri11er-usnews-2%34%(!!13.htmlF G% I E< 9or some e pertsD the prospect o: a double#di& still seems distant. K2 still thin- itLs ;er9 unli-el9 that the econom9 will :all into a ,ouble-,ipDK sa9s &ohn 09,in1D a co:oun,er o: 0DQ Economics. KDouble#di& <ears are Juite &re=alent right now and ha=e been ... but I <ind the situation =er; similar to the last two so# called Lobless reco=eries where :eelin1s o: double#di& constantl; bubbled u& to the sur<ace but ne=er materialized.K
1o double di&# Consumer con<idence shows Baden ,/1 C/enD U) *ews )ta:: +riterD )S News * !orld Re+ortD "-1-1%D http:33:inance.9ahoo.com3news3#-6roblems-<hat-Coul,<ri11er-usnews-2%34%(!!13.htmlF G% I E<
Consumer con<idence. $ recent re&ort b; the Con<erence Board shows that consumer con<idence is &lummeting. 2n &uneD the grou&Gs Consumer Con<idence Inde) dro&&ed b; nearl; 10 &ointsH its secon,bi11est one-month ,ecrease in a 9ear. >he re&ort also shows that consumersG assessments o< their current situations and their <uture Lob &ros&ects are turning increasingl; negati=e. >his has touched o<< concerns that a s3e&tical consumer base could stand in the wa; o< a reco=er;. )tillD 49nn 7rancoD ,irector o: the Consumer 0esearch Center at the Con:erence /oar,D sa9s she hasnLt seen e;i,ence that sentiment is ba, enou1h to spar- a ,ouble-,ip recession. KIt doesnGt loo3 li3e itGs an indication o< a double# di&. ItGs reall; Lust the <act that until consumers see more &roo<## an, that bein1 more 1rowth in the labor mar-et--weLre li-el9 to continue at these le;elsDK she sa9s. AlsoD consumer con<idence is b; no means eas; to measure. &ust a :ew ,a9s be:ore the Con:erence /oar, release, its numbersD a <homson 0euters3Uni;ersit9 o: .ichi1an sur;e9 in,icate, that consumers are actuall9 Nuite content. 2n star- contrast to the Con:erence /oar,Ls resultsD this sur;e9 showe, consumer sentiment at its best le;els since &anuar9 2%%#.

Scholars
(. Econ Growth Good/Bad
!"% 1o 2orld Double Di&

1o double di& C Global Econ on trac3 Shah ,/, C>arenD senior in;estment specialist at Citi 6ri;ate /an-D The Business TimesD ".".1%D
http:33www.businesstimes.com.s13sub3;iews3stor93%D4!"4D3$3#%2D%%.html I E< 4oo-in1 into the secon, hal: o: 2%1%D we belie;e the global reco=er; is on trac3 and <ears o< a double#di& recession are o=erstated. Concerns that Euro&eGs <iscal &roblems ma; s&ar3 a liJuidit; crunch o: post4ehman proportions are <ast <adingD an, u&coming stress#test results <or the regionGs ban3s should go some wa; towards nulli<;ing those <ears. +hile ban3s are lending to one another at higher interest ratesD percei;in1 1reater counter-part9 ris-sD the actual ris3 &remiums demanded are not worr;ingl; high b9 historic measures. 2n an9 caseH the Euro&ean Central Ban3 a&&ears committed to &um& in as much liJuidit; as is needed to &re=ent a shortage.
1o double di&# Citi anal;sts Shah ,/, C>arenD senior in;estment specialist at Citi 6ri;ate /an-D The Business TimesD ".".1%D
http:33www.businesstimes.com.s13sub3;iews3stor93%D4!"4D3$3#%2D%%.html I E< /ut what i< there is a double#di& recessionS .ar-ets ha;e sol, o:: sharpl9 since mi,-AprilD conseNuentl9 brin1in1 ,own eNuit9 ;aluations. E=en i< the world does return to recessionar; conditionsH stoc3s do not a&&ear o=er&riced. Economic contraction is o:ten thought to cause cor&orate re=enue and earnings to <all shar&l;D missin1 current :orecasts. /ut Citi anal;stsH on e aminin1 maEor ,ouble ,ips in ;arious mar-ets in the past 3% 9earsD belie=e that mar3ets ma; be too <ocused on the to& line. <he9 point out that li3e in &re=ious downturnsH current cost structures ha=e been radicall; streamlined since the <inancial crisis. Com&an; &ro<itsH thenH are li3el; to be more resilient than e)&ected D e;en i: the econom9 tan-s a1ain.
1o double di& C earnings o=erstated Shah ,/, C>arenD senior in;estment specialist at Citi 6ri;ate /an-D The Business TimesD ".".1%D
http:33www.businesstimes.com.s13sub3;iews3stor93%D4!"4D3$3#%2D%%.html I E< 2n,ee,D Citi anal9sts belie;e current &rice#earnings ;aluations seem to im&l; a brutal double di& in which the econom; contracts e=en more than in 2%%#-%%$D ,own one per cent in nominal GD6 terms in both 2%11 an, 2%12. E;en in such a se=ere scenarioH cor&orate earnings would be e)&ected to grow more than 10 &er cent in 2%1%D be:ore ,eclinin1 1% per cent in 2%11 an, 2 per cent in 2%12 - much less than the !( per cent plun1e in 2%%#-%$.n)tillD it could ta3e some time <or mar3ets to realise that a double di& is not a &robable scenario and that cor&orate earnings are li3el; to be more resilient i: it ,oes happen. 2n the meantimeD ;olatilit9 is li-el9 to persistD callin1 :or nimble toes - an, :in1ersD while an une;en reco;er9 warrants Eu,icious mar-et selection an, stoc--pic-in1.

Scholars
*0 Econ Growth Good/Bad
Internal 6in3s

Scholars
I/6# 27 Di& 8ossible

2e0re on the brin3 o< a double di&# earnings are downH Lobs aren0t being madeH and the stimulus has almost run out 5eich ,/* C0obertD pro: o: public polic9P UC /er-ele9D Christian Science 'onitor$
http:33www.csmonitor.com3.one930obert-0eich-s-/lo132%1%3%"%!3)louchin1-towar,-a-,ouble-,ipD ".!.1%I E< >he econom; is still in the gra=itational &ull o< the Great 5ecession an, all the booster roc-ets :or 1ettin1 us be9on, it are :ailin1. >he odds o< a double di& are increasing .2n &une the nation added <ewer Lobs than necessar; merel; to 3ee& u& with &o&ulation growth Cpri;ate hirin1 rose b9 #3D%%% a:ter a,,in1 onl9 33D%%% Eobs in .a9I. <he t9pical wor-wee- ,ecline,. $=erage earnings dro&&ed. @ome sales are down. 0etail sales are ,own. 7actor9 or,ers in .a9 su::ere, their bi11est tumble since .arch o: last 9ear. )o what are we doing about itS 6ess than nothing. <he states are running an anti#stimulus &rogram Craisin1 ta esD cuttin1 ser;icesD la9in1 o:: teachersD :ire:i1htersD police an, other emplo9eesI that's now bi11er than the :e,eral stimulus pro1ram. >hat <ederal stimulus is ,* &ercent gone an;wa;. An, the @ouse and Senate re<use to &ass another one. C<he )enate le:t +ashin1ton :or the &ul9 4th wee-en, without e;en e ten,in1 unemplo9ment bene:its :or millions o: Eobless Americans now runnin1 out.I
Ending o< the stimulus can &ush !S in Baden ,/1 C/enD U) *ews )ta:: +riterD )S News * !orld Re+ortD "-1-1%D http:33:inance.9ahoo.com3news3#-6roblems-<hat-Coul,-<ri11erusnews-2%34%(!!13.htmlF G% I E< E)&iration o< stimulus. =ne o: =bamaLs :irst acts as presi,ent was to authoriJe a massi;e stimulus pac-a1e that cost O"#" billion. It included a number o< &ro=isions that were intended to hel& Lum&start the econom; . )ome economists are concerned that the stimulus &lan is the onl; thing dri=ing GD8 growth in the Unite, )tates. K$bsent <iscal and monetar; stimulusH thereGs been no reco=er;R itLs been at best an WL4-shape,LX reco;er9D not a WL?-shape,LX reco;er9H e)ce&t <or the sugar rush o< stimulus. K sa9s 0ob ArnottD chairman o: 0esearch A::iliates. I2hen ;ou gi=e a 3id with $D@D a big
bowl o< 4B4sH the; get a sugar rushH and i< ;ou ta3e awa; the bowl o< 4B4sH the; get a sugar crash. So what we ha=e is an econom; on a sugar rush.I 2ith man; stimulus &rograms wearing o<<H there are concerns that the &ri=ate sector is not read; to su&&ort itsel< ;et.
$nd because o< lac3 o< more go=ernment stimulation# we are teetering into a double di& recession# now crucial 5eich ,/* C0obertD pro: o: public polic9P UC /er-ele9D Christian Science 'onitor$
http:33www.csmonitor.com3.one930obert-0eich-s-/lo132%1%3%"%!3)louchin1-towar,-a-,ouble-,ipD ".!.1%I E<
<he iron9 is that had there been no ban3 bailout in 2%%# an, 2%%$D no large stimulusH and no e)traordinar; e<<orts b9 the 7e, to pump trillions o: ,ollars into the econom9D we0d ha=e had another Great De&ression. An, because it would ha=e suc3ed almost e=er;one down with itD the nation woul, ha;e ,eman,e, :rom politicians lar1er an, more :un,amental re:orms that mi1ht well ha;e li:te, e;er9one H and set $merica and the world on a more sustainable &ath toward growth and shared &ros&erit;: A stimulus that :inance, the rebuil,in1 o: the nation's in:rastructure an, alternati;e ener1iesD sin1le-pa9er health careD a cap on the siJe o: bi1 ban-s an, resurrection o: Glass-)tea1allD earnin1s insuranceD an Earne, 2ncome <a Cre,it that e ten,e, into the mi,,le classD an, a trul9 pro1ressi;e ta couple, with a price on carbon to pa9 :or all o: this o;er the lon1 term. 1o one in their right mind would ha=e wished <or another Great De&ressionD o: course. /ut we seem to ha=e got the worst o< all worlds. <he ban- bailoutD the stimulusD an, the 7e, brou1ht us bac- :rom the brin- Eust enou1h to ,ampen Jeal :or an9thin1 more. As a resultD we are now slouching toward a te&id reco=er; that could Lust as well <all into a double di& recessionH while a large &ortion o< our &o&ulation su<<ers immensel;.

Scholars
I/6# Econ Colla&se# 6ightning 9ast

Economic colla&se ha&&ens lightning <ast Daw3ins 10 C<an9aD BesY .a1aJine chie: boar, memberD !.1%.1%D Yes,
http:33www.9esma1aJine.or13issues3america-the-remi 3:inancial-transactions-ta -a-little-ta -on-the-bi1-casino I E< Currenc9 s&eculation and <inancial deregulation to&&ed a recent U.*. Con:erence on <ra,e an, De;elopment s&ecial re&ort as root causes o< the recent brea3down o< the global econom;. E istin1 re1ulations encoura1e casino-li-e :inancial mar-ets. <rillions o: ,ollars in currenc9 tra,esD :or e ampleD ,o nothin1 to create real EobsD 1oo,sD an, ser;ices. <he9 onl9 create paper pro:its :rom momentar9 e chan1erate :luctuations. >his lightning#<astH globe#trotting s&eculation easil; eludes regulation and ta)ation . Bet it can destabilize entire economies an, it places more 1roun,e,D lon1-term business an, in;estment at a si1ni:icant competiti;e ,isa,;anta1e. An 7<< coul, help with both the nee, to rein in speculation an, the nee, to :un, ;ital proEects. <he Center :or Economic an, 6olic9 0esearch estimates that an 7<< o: onl9 onehal: o: one percent woul, 1enerate at least O(% billion to O1%% billion ,ollars in the Unite, )tates alone.
Econ colla&se causes double di& in matter o< minutes Chossudo=s3; ., C.ichelD pro: o: Econ P =ttawa UD Third !orld Network-=ct $"D
http:33www.twnsi,e.or1.s13title3mic-cn.htm I E< >he tumble on 1* $ugust 1.., immediatel; s&illed o=er onto the worldGs stoc3 mar3ets triggering substantial losses on the 7ran-:urtD 6arisD >on1 8on1 an, <o-9o e chan1es. ?arious Lspeculati;e instrumentsL in the eNuit9 an, :orei1n e chan1e mar-ets were use, with a ;iew to manipulatin1 price mo;ements. In the wee3s that <ollowedH stoc3s continued to trade ner=ousl;. +i,e speculati;e mo;ements were recor,e, on +all )treetU billions o: ,ollars were transacte, throu1h the *B)ELs )uper,ot electronic or,er-routin1 s9stem with the Dow swinging s&uriousl; u& and down in a matter o< minutes. <he Asian eNuit9 an, currenc9 mar-ets ,ecline, steepl9 un,er the brunt o: speculati;e tra,in1. 2n a threewee- perio, the C>on1 8on1I >an1 )en1 2n,e ha, ,ecline, b9 1!R. <he &apanese bon, mar-et ha, plun1e, to an all-time low. In turnH billions o< dollars o< central ban3 reser=es had been a&&ro&riated b; institutional s&eculators. Business <orecasters and academic economists ali3e ha=e casuall; disregarded the dangers alluding to Gstrong economic <undamentalsGR G" lea,ers are a:rai, to sa9 an9thin1 or act in a wa9 which mi1ht 1i;e the Lwron1 si1nalsL... 2all Street anal;sts continue to bungle on issues o< Gmar3et correctionG with little understanding o< the broader economic &icture . 2n turnD public opinion is bombar,e, in the me,ia with 1lowin1 ima1es o: 1lobal 1rowth an, prosperit9. <he econom9 is sai, to be boomin1 un,er the impetus o: the :ree mar-et re:orms. +ithout ,ebate or ,iscussionD so-calle, Lsoun, macro-economic policiesL Cmeanin1 the 1amut o: bu,1etar9 austerit9D ,ere1ulationD ,ownsiJin1 an, pri;atisationI are heral,e, as the -e9 to economic success.

Scholars
*' Econ Growth Good/Bad
I/6# 8erce&tion :e;

8erce&tion matters more than realit; in economics >. 5owe 8rice . CGlobal in;estment :irmD (.3%.$D T Rowe Price .uarterl"D
http:33in,i;i,ual.troweprice.com31c7iles3p,:3sr;al.p,: IE< 2hile we can ma3e an obLecti=e assessment o< the inherent ris3 o< an in=estment in an; com&an;H it is =er; di<<icult to &redict e)treme changes in mar-et sentiment. =;er the past 9earD the mar3et has been gri&&ed b; the <ear that a signi<icant economic contraction could ad=ersel; a<<ect the <ortunes <or man9 o: the com&anies in which we in=est. =:tenD e)cessi=e <ear creates in=estment o&&ortunit;. .ore recentl9D howe;erD it seems that e)cessi=e <ear has sim&l; created more in;estor an)iet;. 2n this t9pe o: en;ironmentD &erce&tion matters more than realit9 in the short termD as man9 mar3et &artici&ants ten, to indiscriminatel; sell o<< good and bad com&anies ali3e. 2n the lon1er termD howe;erD perception matters :ar less than a compan9's actual :un,amentals. +hen there is an e cess o: emotion in the mar-etD we see si1ni:icant opportunit9. +e belie;e that the current en;ironment is well suite, to our in;estment st9leD which is :ocuse, on bu9in1 out-o:-:a;or companies with attracti;e lon1-term prospects an, consi,erable ;aluation appeal.

Scholars
*( Econ Growth Good/Bad
I/6% !S 5esilient# Em&iric

!S econom; is resilient# &ast &ro=es @ometown 6i<e ,/- C%ometown /i&eD ".#.1%D
http:33www.hometownli:e.com3article32%1%%"%#3*E+)%(3"%#%4$! I E< <he Juestion I am as3ed o<ten is when will things get bac3 to normal . 2 ,onLt -nowD but 2 ,o -now that e;entuall9 this will be behin, us. >he !.S. econom; will once again <lourish. 4; con<idence in the !.S. econom; is not based u&on our elected re&resentati=es in +ashin1ton or 4ansin1 butH ratherD the $merican &eo&le. ?ur countr; and our econom; ha=e been through di<<icult times in the &ast and each time we ha=e risen to the challenge and ha=e o=ercome our di<<iculties. 2 ha;e no ,oubt that will happen once a1ain. Earlier this wee-D we celebrate, our countr9Ls 234th birth,a9. >here is no doubt we are <aced with numerous &roblems and challenges. +hether it is nearl9 ,ouble-,i1it unemplo9mentD abnormall9 hi1h :oreclosure rates or :allin1 home pricesD the econom9 is stru11lin1. >owe;erD we should ne=er <orget that des&ite our di<<icultiesH we are still the largest and strongest econom; in the world. 1o other econom; comes close to ours. 2e are stillD ,espite e;er9thin1D the en=; o< the world.
$merica0s resilience is unmatched and historicall; &ro=en @ometown 6i<e ,/- C%ometown /i&eD ".#.1%D
http:33www.hometownli:e.com3article32%1%%"%#3*E+)%(3"%#%4$! I E< >here is no doubt that we ha=e real &roblems in this countr; S hi1h unemplo9mentD hi1h :oreclosure rates an,D probabl9 worst o: allD a lac- o: con:i,ence in our :uture. 7or those who are unemplo9e, or who ha;e lost their homesD a ,oom an, 1loom :eelin1 is un,erstan,able an, nothin1 an9one sa9s can relie;e the an iet9 the9 :eel. >owe;erD donGt <orget that our countr; has been through numerous turbulent times. 2hether itGs been world warsH de&ressions or recessionsH this countr;Gs resilience is unmatched in the annals o< the world. =n the heels o: this 2n,epen,ence Da9 holi,a9D 2 belie;e all citizens deser=e a &at on the bac3 <or a Lob well done. <here is no ,oubt thereLs plent9 o: wor- ahea,. >owe;erD $mericans can and should loo3 <orward to the <uture 3nowing that there are better da;s ahead. *e;er :or1et how luc-9 we are to li;e in the lan, o: the :ree an, the home o: the bra;e.
!S econom; resilient# we0re li3e bounc; balls @ometown 6i<e ,/- C%ometown /i&eD ".#.1%D
http:33www.hometownli:e.com3article32%1%%"%#3*E+)%(3"%#%4$! I E< $s $mericansH we ha=e much to be &roud o< S we are the :reest an, richest countr9 in the histor9 o: the worl,. +e also are a beacon o: libert9 an, :ree,om to the rest o: the worl,. Does an;one ha=e an; doubt that i< &eo&le could choose to mo=e an;where in the worldH there would be a rush to our shores F <here is a reason wh9 :ree,om-lo;in1 people throu1hout the worl, want to come to the Unite, )tates. In this 2(/, news#media worldH a <ocus on the negati=e ma; Lust be human nature. >owe;erD ta-e a step bac- an, :ocus on the positi;es. 2: nothin1 moreD <ocus on the <act that throughout our histor;H we are still the land o< o&&ortunit;. =ur societ9 is :ull o: people who entere, li:e without certain a,;anta1es an, ha;e achie;e, 1reatness here. 6oo3 at e=er; le=el o< our societ;H <rom businessH arts and entertainmentH s&orts and &oliticsH and ;ou will see large numbers o< &eo&le who o=ercame di<<iculties to reach un&recedented le=els. As AmericansD we are the can-,o people. 2e ha=e &ro=en it time and time again and I ha=e no doubt that we will o=ercome our &resent di<<iculties and once again reach new heights.

Scholars
** Econ Growth Good/Bad
I/6% !S 5esilient# Em&iric

>he !S econom; is the eJui=alent o< 5oc3; Balboa C it0s reall; resilient Blanchard +/* C*i-lasD economistD 'odeled Beha#iorD http:33mo,ele,beha;ior.com32%1%3%(3%!3this-isresilience3 D (.!.1%I E< >he !S econom; is li3e 5oc3; Balboa V it can ta3e multi&le hard hitsH s&end a good deal o< time beaten downWbut then come bac3 and win the <ight against stri3ing odds. As 9ou ma9 -nowD 2'm a proponent o: the )cott )umner ;iew o: e;ents surroun,in1 the Great 0ecession. 2n,ee,D 2 thin- monetar9 polic9 remains too ti1ht relati;e to the nee,s o: the econom9 Cto return to our pre;ious *GD6 1rowth pathI. >owe;erD <rom )tephen Gordon C;ia the /EAID we learn that on netH not e=en <iscal &olic; has been &articularl; e)&ansionar;: <here has been much tal- o: the siJe o: the U) :e,eral stimulusD an, much ,ebate about whether or not it has been an e::ecti;e counter-c9clical polic9 instrument. /ut it's important to remember that the proper measure :or :iscal stimulus is not spen,in1 b9 the :e,eral 1o;ernmentU it is spen,in1 b9 all le;els o: 1o;ernment. An, when 9ou looat the contributions to U) GD6 1rowth C<able 1.1.2 at the /EA siteID total 1o;ernment spen,in1 has been a ,ra1 on 1rowth o;er the past two Nuarters. <he increases at the :e,eral le;el ha;e not been enou1h to compensate :or the spen,in1 cuts at the local an, state le;els. An, 9etD e=en se=erel; batteredH the little engine that could 3ee&s chugging along. >here is a lot o< in3 being s&illed o=er the theor; o< <iscal &olic; Me)&ectation tra&sOH or what 8ru1man terms the <in-erbell principle. <he theor9 is ;er9 interestin1D an, well-worth pursuin1D but is a :iscal polic9 that is ,emonstratabl9 not e pansionar9 e;er e pansionar9F
$merican econom; is resilient# histor; and &olitics &ro=es 4ccartne; ,/+ C0obD 8E<? )enior *ews AnchorD Star TribuneD ".(.1%D
http:33www.startribune.com3opinion3commentar93$"#$(%%4.htmlFpa1eG1@cG9 I E< )oD to answer m9 own unpatriotic Nuestion: DesH $merica has begun a declineH mainl; because weG=e let the econom; an, our political culture deteriorate. But we can still re=erse it. 2eGre still the wealthiest nation in all o< world histor;. ?ur &olitics ha=e shown tremendous resilience an, a,aptabilit9 o=er more than two centuries. <he elections o< 5onald 5eagan and Barac3 ?bama showed how Juic3l; our s;stem can deli=er dramatic change at the to&H e;en i: structural problems remain. 2e need to summon again the =ision and &olitical courage o< the Continental Congress . +ith thatD $merica could resume the ascent that it has enLo;ed #- o;erallD des&ite a <ew setbac3s ## since 1,,+.
$merican econom; resilient# eas; adLustment &ro=es Geithner +/2+ C<imD U) )ec o: <reasur9D (.2(.1%D 'ondo (isioneD http:33www.mon,o;isione.com3in,e .c:mF
sectionGnews@actionG,etail@i,G$12$" I E< *owD the $merican econom; is =er; resilient. ?ur strength is that we adLust Juic3l;. An, ;ou can see that in the strength o< &roducti=it; growthH the ra&id &ace o< business in=estment and the remar-able pace o: inno=ation in a range o< high#tech industries in the !nited States . An, we are sa;in1 more as a nationD reco1niJin1 that :uture 1rowth in the Unite, )tates cannot be built on the strate19 o: borrowin1 to :inance consumer spen,in1.

Scholars
*+ Econ Growth Good/Bad
I/6% !S 5esilient# 8eo&le

!S will reco=er# econom; resilient due to &eo&le0s ada&tabilit; $8$ 10 CAmerican 69scholo1ical associationD )prin1 2%1%D http:33www.apa.or13helpcenter3resilience-tou1heconom9.asp I $s Lob losses soar and the media continues to re&ort on <alling stoc3 &rices and rising <oreclosuresH man; &eo&le ma; react to the economic climate with a <lood o< strong emotions an, a sense o: uncertaint9. BetD &eo&le 1enerall9 ada&t well o=er time to li<e#changing situations an, stress:ul con,itions. +hat helps some people Tbounce bac-Q while others continue to :eel o;erwhelme,F 5esilienceH the &rocess o< ada&ting well in the <ace o< ad=ersit;H which is =ital in these high#stress times . 0esilience is a learne, s-ill that can help carr9 9ou throu1h the current crisis as well as :uture relationshipD :amil9D or wor- problems 9ou ma9 encounter. >he current economic situation is a maLor stressor <or eight out o< ten $mericansH accor,in1 to a 2%%# sur;e9 b9 the American 6s9cholo1ical Association CA6AI. +ith constant remin,ers :rom newspapersD tele;ision an, the internetD it's har, to a;oi, the ,oom an, 1loom narrati;e about the econom9. 2t's normal to :eel o;erwhelme, when 9ou seem to be surroun,e, b9 ba, news that impacts 9our :amil9 situation or that 9ou :ear ma9 ,o so in the :uture. >owe;erD 9ou can han,le stress in positi;e wa9s an, implement tactics to help 9ou better mana1e an, ,e;elop 9our resilience. )eein1 this ,i::icult situation in a positi;e li1ht can help 9ou buil, an, utiliJe 9our resilience.
!S resilient# has been engine o< our econom; Dawson ( C.ichaelD Deput9 Assistant )ecretar9 :or Critical 2n:rastructure 6rotection an, Compliance 6olic9D
1.#.4D Press RoomD http:33www.ustreas.1o;3press3releases3Es1%$1.htm I E< >he resilienc; o< the <inancial in<rastructure is an issue that is =er; im&ortant to the Department o: the <reasur9. At the <reasur9D we are res&onsible <or de=elo&ing and &romoting &olicies that create Lobs and im&ro=e the econom;. +e are also concerne, with ,e;elopin1 an, promotin1 policies that enhance the resilience o: the econom9D policies that minimiJe the economic ,ama1e an, spee, economic reco;er9 :rom a terrorist attac-. 2n,ee,D the 6resi,ent name, <reasur9 as the lea, a1enc9 to enhance the resilience o: the critical :inancial in:rastructure. <hese two responsibilities are closel9 relate,. As )ecretar9 )now has sai,D the <inancial s;stem is the engine o< our econom;. 2n a ;er9 real senseD there:oreD the resilience o< the $merican econom; de&ends on the resilience o< the $merican <inancial s;stem.
!S econom; resilient# consumers Smith +/2- C&amesD Eournalist P )un,a9 <imes ma1aJineD FT Ad#isor$(.2#.1%D
http:33www.:ta,;iser.com32n;estmentA,;iser32n;estments30e1ion3U)3*ews3article32%1%%(2#3:c#:a$#(-":"4-11,:#1(3-%%144:2a:#e#3U)-reco;er9-is-still-at-ris-.Esp I E< 4oo-in1 at the U) econom9D .r +erman sai, on the positi;e si,eD in,ustrial acti;it9 has increase, ,ramaticall9 o;er the last si to nine months an, housin1 prices ha;e stabilise, to a lar1e ,e1ree. Q>he !S consumer has also been much more resilient than we e pecte,D businesses continue to increase their ca&ital e)&enditure budgets and the senior com&an; leaders we meet e)hibit much more con<idence in their outloo3s.Q =n the ne1ati;e si,eD he note, short#term macro concerns and is monitoring areas such as the so=ereign debt situation =er; closel;. Q)i1ni:icant ,ebt issuance b9 the U) 1o;ernment lea,s us to ha;e concerns o;er how lon1 the 7e,eral 0eser;e will -eep interest rates at e::ecti;el9 JeroDQ he a,,e,. T<he lon1 lea,in1 in,icators o: business acti;it9 in the U) ha;e turne, ne1ati;e :or consecuti;e monthsD causin1 us concern about the sustainabilit9 an, ,urabilit9 o: the current economic reco;er9.Q 7rom an economic point o: ;iewD *euber1er /erman belie;es it is possible we ha=e seen the strongest growth <rom a GD8 &ers&ecti=e during the reco=er; alread;. T+e thin- there will be a growth and earnings deceleration in the coming monthsHO a,,e, .r +erman. T>he stoc3 mar3et is &ricing in a A#sha&ed reco=er; when in <act we belie=e it will loo3 more li3e a X1i3e swoosh0.O

Scholars
*, Econ Growth Good/Bad
I/6% !S 5esilient# ./11

!S econ resilient# ./11H recessionH and withstanding <alling &rices &ro=e Dawson ( C.ichaelD Deput9 Assistant )ecretar9 :or Critical 2n:rastructure 6rotection an, Compliance 6olic9D
1.#.4D Press RoomD http:33www.ustreas.1o;3press3releases3Es1%$1.htm I E< 7ortunatel9D we are starting <rom a =er; strong base. >he $merican econom; is resilient . =;er the past :ew 9earsD we ha;e seen that resilience <irst handH as the $merican econom; withstood a signi<icant <all in eJuit; &ricesH an economic recessionH the terrorist attac3s o< Se&tember 11H cor&orate go=ernance scandalsH and the &ower outage o< $ugust 1(#1*. >here are man; reasons <or the resilience o: the American econom9. Good &olicies - li-e the 6resi,ent's &obs an, Growth 2nitiati;e - &la;ed an im&ortant &art. So has the resilience o< the $merican &eo&le. ?ne o< the reasons are econom; is so resilient is that our &eo&le are so toughH so determined to &rotect our wa; o< li<e.
$merican <inancial s;stem resilient# &eo&le and withstanding em&irical &roblems Dawson ( C.ichaelD Deput9 Assistant )ecretar9 :or Critical 2n:rastructure 6rotection an, Compliance 6olic9D
1.#.4D Press RoomD http:33www.ustreas.1o;3press3releases3Es1%$1.htm I E< 6i3e the econom; as a wholeH the $merican <inancial s;stem is resilient. 7or e ampleH the <inancial s;stem &er<ormed e)traordinaril; well during the &ower outage last $ugust. 2ith one e ceptionD the bon, an, maEor eNuities an, :utures mar-ets were open the ne t ,a9 at their re1ular tra,in1 hours. .aEor mar-et participants were also well prepare,D ha;in1 in;este, in contin1enc9 plansD proce,uresD an, eNuipment such as bac-up power 1enerators. >he !.S. <inancial sector withstood this historic &ower outage without an; re&orted loss or corru&tion o< an; customer data. <his resilience mitigates the economic ris3s o< terrorist attac3s and other disru&tionsH both to the :inancial s9stem itsel: an, to the American econom9 as a whole. Althou1h we are startin1 :rom a stron1 baseD the <act remains that terrorists continue to target the !.S. econom; and !.S. <inancial institutions. <here:oreD we must continue our ;i1ilant e::orts to protect our critical :inancial in:rastructure.

Scholars
*Econ Growth Good/Bad
I/6% !S 5esilient# 4anu<acturing

!S econom; showing resilience# manu<acturing Schlisserman +/'0 CCourtne9D /loomber1 *ews writerD Bloomber NewsD (.3%.1%D
http:33www.businesswee-.com3news32%1%-%(-3%3u-s-econom9-business-acti;it9-e pan,e,-in-Eune.html I E< Business acti=it; in the !.S. e)&anded in /une <or a ninth straight monthH showing manu<acturing is o=ercoming turmoil in :inancial mar-ets. Economies in ,e;elopin1 countries are lea,in1 the reco;er9 :rom the worst 1lobal recession in the post-+orl, +ar 22 eraD ,ri;in1 sales at companies inclu,in1 Deere @ Co. >he &ace o< manu<acturing ma; start to cool in the absence o< stronger em&lo;ment gains needed to in=igorate demand. T>he <actor; sector is showin1 some slowin1 but remains Juite resilientDQ sai, 0ichar, De8aserD chie: economist at +oo,le9 6ar- 0esearch in +ashin1ton. T<he slowdown in em&lo;ment we';e seen in bits an, pieces is real and relati;el9 broad#based.Q
Econom; resilient# consumer con<idence and &rice stabilization 2illis +/2- C/ruceD /usiness sta:: writerD Bloomber D http:33www.businesswee-.com3news32%1%-%(-2#3u-seconom9-income-1ains-boost-spen,in1-sa;in1s.html D (.2#.1%I E< <he sa=ings rate increased to ( &ercent last monthH the highest le=el since Se&tember D to O4!4.3 billion. T>he !.S. consumer remains resilientHO sai, )al GuatieriD a senior economist at /.= Capital .ar-ets in <orontoD which correctl9 :orecast the 1ain in spen,in1. T$s long as Lobs are coming bac3 &eo&le will continue to s&end.O $mericans will also Tremain <ocused on &a;ing down their debts and rebuilding their sa=ings.O >he re&ort showed &rices stabilized. <he in<lation gauge tied to s&ending &atterns increased 1.. &ercent :rom .a9 2%%$ a:ter a 2 percent increase in the 12 months throu1h April.

Scholars
*. Econ Growth Good/Bad
I/6% !S 1ot 5esilient# 9ed S&ending 6ac3ing

$nd economic colla&se is e)tremel; &ossible# lac3 o< <ed action 6iesman ,/. C)te;eD sr econ reporterD CNBC . ".$.1%D http:33www.cnbc.com3i,33#1((%"1 IE <
2ith the econom; wea3ening and <ears growing o< a double#di& recessionH o<<icials at the 9ederal 5eser=e seem to be s&lit o;er how the central ban- coul, or shoul, respon,. n an inter;iew +e,nes,a9 on C*/CD Dallas 7e, 6resi,ent 0ichar, 7isher ,eclare, unambi1uousl9: T2 thin- we';e ,one enou1h.Q >e pointe, out that the 7e, has inEecte, some O1.4 trillion into the ban-in1 s9stemD that ban-s hol, some O1 trillion o: e cess reser;esD an, that non:inancial corporations hol, aroun, O1.! trillion o: cash on their boo-s. /ut )t. 4ouis 7e, 6resi,ent &ames /ullar,D in an inter;iew with the +ashin1ton 6ostD su11este, that i: the econom9 wea-ensD the 7e, shoul, step in a1ain. KI< the economic situation changesH &olic; should react DK he sai,. KBou shoul,nLt sit on 9our han,s...2 thinthereLs plent9 more we coul, ,o i: we ha, to.K <here are se;eral Nuestions at pla9 here. 7irstD shoul, the 7e, step inF )econ,D i: soD what tools are a;ailableF An, thir,D woul, the9 ha;e an9 e::ectF <esti:9in1 be:ore Con1ress shortl9 a:ter the 7e, opene, up international swap lines to combat the :esterin1 European crisisD /ernan-e sai,: T?ur ongoing international coo&eration sends an im&ortant signal to global <inancial mar3ets that we will ta3e the actions necessar; to ensure stabilit; and continued economic reco=er;.O

Scholars
+0 Econ Growth Good/Bad
I/6% !S 1ot 5esilient#Generic

!S econ not resilient# lac3 o< &roo< or regional stabilizer Dail; 4ar3ets ,/, C)toc- <ra,in1D 7ore <ra,in1 *ews @ =pinions siteD Dail" 'arketsD ".".1%D
http:33www.,ail9mar-ets.com3econom932%1%3%"3%"3the-new-ci;il-wars-within-the-west3 I E< Some o< the 2estern &owers ha=e slum&ed be<oreH and reco=ered. >he !nite, States has ;et to demonstrate this resilience. ?ther 2estern societies ha=e slum&edH and ha=e ;et been &rotected b; a strong regional s;stem so that their societies coul, prosper un,er :orei1n protection. >he 1etherlandsH S&ainH and 8ortugalH <or e)am&leD retaine, stable an, in,i;i,ual prosperous societies an, 9et ne=er reco=ered their strategic leadershi&H rel;ingH insteadH on the &ower o< their region <or economic and securit; &rotection. )tates which remain ,epen,ent on others :or their protection ne;er :ull9 re1ain their wealth an, :ree,om. )tates such as *ew Mealan, ,epen, on their 1reater nei1hbors :or protection. /ut wither *ew Mealan, i: Australia :ailsF +ither the *etherlan,s to,a9 i: the European Union :ailsF An, wither the Unite, )tates i: its :ortunes ero,eF 0e-birth isD as /ritain has :oun, throu1h histor9D as ,i, 0omeD more ar,uous than that :irstD pure :lush o: strate1ic ;ictor9.
Econom; going to decline now# losing all the things that 3ee& it a<loat In=estment watch +/. Copinion3anal9sis pro;i,er o: the stoc- mar-etD 1lobal econom9D en;ironmentD an, our
ener19 challen1esD In#estment !atchD (.$.1%D http:33in;estmentwatchblo1.com3warnin1-were-:allin1-into-a-,ouble,ip-recession3I E< <he 4abor Department reports this mornin1 that the pri;ate sector a,,e, a measl9 41D%%% net new Eobs in .a9. /ut at least 1%%D%%% new Eobs are nee,e, e;er9 month Eust to -eep up with population 1rowth. 2n other wor,sD the labor mar3et continues to deteriorate. >he onl; reason the econom; isn0t in a double#di& recession alread; is because o< three tem&orar; boosts% the :e,eral stimulus Co: which "! percent has been spentID near-Jero interest rates Cwhich can't continue much lon1er without i1nitin1 speculati;e bubblesID an, replacements Cconsumers ha;e ha, to replace worn-out cars an, appliancesD an, businesses ha, to replace worn-,own in;entoriesI. ?hH andH ;esH all those Census wor3ers Pwho will be out on their ears in a month or soF. /ut all these boosts will end soon. >hen we0re in the di&. 5etail sales are alread; down.
Econ going to decline now and no reco=er; in ne)t decade In=estment watch +/. Copinion3anal9sis pro;i,er o: the stoc- mar-etD 1lobal econom9D en;ironmentD an, our
ener19 challen1esD In#estment !atchD (.$.1%D http:33in;estmentwatchblo1.com3warnin1-were-:allin1-into-a-,ouble,ip-recession3I E< 4ar3etsH industriesH com&anies and households that li=e b; subsidies also die b; subsidies. Subsidies <oment cannibalization and misallocation o< resources an, Din the lon1 runD ;itiate or1anic 1rowth. A real estate correction in the mar-etD le:t alone woul, ha;e been ;icious but short an, b9 now the mar-et woul, alrea,9 be re1eneratin1. /9 pre;entin1 a 3% R to 3!R ,ecline in real prices o;er a an 1# to 24 month perio,D >he 5egime has =irtuall; assured an a (0E or greater real decline s&read o=er a longH &ain<ul decade . A<he win,in1 ,own o: the in;entor9 buil,in1 c9cleD which has accounte, :or "%R o: GD6 1rowth o;er the past two Nuarters. <his means consumer ,eman, has to show up to bu9 all the 1oo,s on the shel;es.

Scholars
I/6% !S :e; to 2orld

>he !S is still 3e; to the global econom;V<i=e warrants Sesit - C.ichaelD /loomber1 *ews ColumnistD T<he :our m9ths o: economic ,ecouplin1DQ <he 8orea >eral,D
7ebruar9 1(D 2%%#D http:33www.le isne is.com3us3lnaca,emic3return<o.,oFreturn<o8e9G2%H<(#"((1(((1D AD: (3%-$I2. .9th *o. 2: <he rest o: the worl, can escape the clutches o: a U.). slow,own. *ot accor,in1 to histor9. <he Unite, )tates has ha, :i;e recessions since 1$"%. Each timeD other economiesL GD6 1rowth also ,ecline,. <he U.). econom9 :ell an a;era1e o: 3.# percent ,urin1 the recessions o: 1$"4-"!D 1$#%D 1$#2D 1$$1 an, 2%%1D with other in,ustrial countries slowin1 an a;era1e o: 2 percentD 4atin America :allin1 1." percent an, emer1in1 Asia ,eclinin1 1.3 percentD accor,in1 to the 2nternational .onetar9 7un,. "Des&ite all the chatter about one region or another being immune <rom &roblems in the !nite, States, the realit; is that in a globalized econom9characteriJe, b9 risin1 cross-bor,er :lows o: 1oo,sD ser;ices an, capital, onl; hermit economies li-e *orth 8orea are trul; de# lin3ed :rom planet EarthDK sa9s &oseph QuinlanD *ew Bor--base, chie: mar-et strate1ist at /an- o: America Capital .ana1ement. KE;er9 oneD more or lessD sin-s or swims in the 1lobal ;illa1e.K .9th *o. 3% 5ising demand in the de=elo&ing world will compensate :or the e pecte, ,rop in U.). consumer spen,in1.Emer1in1-mar-et countries are consumin1 moreD 9et 1rowth in man9 o: them is still mostl; dri=en b; e)&ortsH not domestic demand. .oreo;erD 2.!! billion people -- almost hal: the population o: the ,e;elopin1 worl, -- li;e, on less than O2 a ,a9 in 2%%4D the latest 9ear o: a;ailable ,ataD accor,in1 to the +orl, /an- an, /an- o: America. !.S. consumers s&ent O$.2" trillion in 2%%(D or '.* times the aggregate O2.(2 trillion personal-consumption e)&enditure o< the so#called B5IC countries: /raJilD 0ussiaD 2n,ia an, China. .9th *o. 4: Growin1 intra-Asian tra,e -- especiall9 that between China an, other countries in the re1ion -- will ma-e up :or lost e ports cause, b9 a steep U.). slow,own. *o ,oubtD intrare1ional tra,e is 1rowin1 rapi,l9D but much o: it re:lects shipments o: interme,iate 1oo,s. )tillD +1 &ercent o< emerging $siaGs e)&orts are ultimatel; consumed in the !.S.H Euro&ean !nion and /a&anD accor,in1 to the Asian De;elopment /an-D while Asian ,e;elopin1 countries account :or Eust 21 percent o: :inal ,eman,. K<he U.). is still more important to each Asian countr9Ls total output than ,eman, :rom other e -&apan Asian economies combine,DK the ban- sai, in a recent report..9th *o. !: Europe is becomin1 less ,epen,ent on the Unite, )tates. <rueD America accounts :or onl9 12 percent o: EU e ports to countries outsi,e the 2!-nation blocD ,own :rom 1# percent in 2%%%. /ut e ports arenLt the whole stor9. )ales b9 U.). a::iliates o: German companies totale, O3!2 billion in 2%%!D the last 9ear o: a;ailable ,ata -- :our times the O#( billion o: German e ports to America. .eanwhileD Dutch U.). a::iliate sales were 1( times e portsD U.8.-a::iliate sales ".( times /ritish e ports an, 7rench-a::iliate sales !.$ times. KI< the !.S. econom; heads southH so too will the earnings o< man; Euro&ean <irmsDK Quinlan sa9s. +hatLs moreD +all )treetLs pull on the worl,Ls :inancial mar-ets is unri;ale,. KU.). eNuit9 returns remain the sin1le bi11est ,ri;er o: 1lobal eNuit9 returnsDK sa9s Da;i, +ooD 4on,on-base, hea, o: 1lobal currenc9 strate19 at /arcla9s Capital. K$ sizable !.S. eJuit; correctionH b; &reci&itating a global eJuit; correctionH will li-el9 lead to a s;nchronized global economic slowdown.I

Scholars
I/6% !S not 3e; to 2orld

!S slowdowns don0t im&act the global econom; 4errill 6;nch ( C 7inancial a,;isor9 @ mana1ement compan9D $.1#.(D
http:33www.ml.com3in,e .aspFi,G"($!H"($(H#14$H(34(4H"%"#(H"11(4I E< $ shar& slowdown in the !.S. econom; is unli3el; to drag the rest o< the global econom; down with itH according to a research re&ort b; 4errill 6;nch0s C*B)E: .E0I 1lobal economic team. <he 1oo, news is that there are strong sources o< growth outside the !.S. that should &ro=e resilient to a consumer#led !.S. slowdown. .errill 49nch economists e pect U.). GD6 1rowth to slow to 1.$ percent in 2%%" :rom 3.4 percent in 2%%(D but non-U.).
1rowth to ,ecline b9 onl9 hal: a percent C!.2 percent ;ersus !." percentI. /ehin, this ,ecouplin1 is hi1her non-U.). ,omestic ,eman,D a rise in intrare1ional tra,e an, supporti;e macroeconomic policies in man9 o: the worl,'s economies. Althou1h some countries appear ;er9 ;ulnerable to a U.). slow,ownD one in :i;e is actuall9 on course :or :aster GD6 1rowth in 2%%" . $siaH /a&an and India a&&ear well &laced to decou&le <rom the !nited StatesH thou1h <aiwanD >on1 8on1 an, )in1apore are more li-el9 to be impacte,. Euro&ean countries could <eel the &inchH but rising domestic demand in the core countries
should hel& the region weather the storm much better than in &re=ious !.S. downturns. 2n the AmericasD
Cana,a will probabl9 be hitD but /raJil is set to ,ecouple.

Scholars
+' Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts

Scholars
+( Econ Growth Good/Bad
Growth Bad

Scholars
+* Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Bad# E)tinction

Economic growth causes e)tinction 1adeau .* CTspaceship earth >omo economicus an, the En;ironmental CrisisQD http:33,ocs.1oo1le.com31;iewF
aG;@NGcache:&Q2/%J)?oeA&:www.earthscape.or13p33E)1!3!13*ADEAUHC>H1.p,:Vna,eauHchH1.p,:@hlGen@ 1lGusD C>I In &h;sicsH in the 9ears :ollowin1 D attem&ts to understand the non# linear d;namics o< li=ing s;stems would re=eal a relationshi& between &arts Cor1anismsI and whole Cecos9stemI in which the stabilit; o< the whole is mediated and sustained b; interactions within and between the &arts. 2n biolo19D the ol, mechanistic mo,el o: e;olution as a linear pro- 1ression :rom TlowerQ atomiJe, or1anisms to more comple atomiJe, or1anisms woul, be ,isplace, b9 a mo,el in which all parts Cor1anismsI e ist in inter,epen,ent an, interacti;e relation to the whole Cli:eI. In en=i# ronmental scienceH researchers would not onl; disco=er that all &arts PorganismsF e)ist in embedded relation to the whole Pecos;stem or bios# &hereF and that the interactions within and between &arts <unction as sel<# regulating &ro&erties o< the whole. >he; would also reach the dire con# clusion that continued disru&tions o< the com&le) web o< interactions between these &arts b; human economic acti=it; could e=entuall; threaten the sur=i=al o< our s&ecies

Scholars
++ Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Bad# E)tinction

Economic growth destro;s abilit; to sur=i=e# e)tinction 1adeau .* CTspaceship earth >omo economicus an, the En;ironmental CrisisQD http:33,ocs.1oo1le.com31;iewF
aG;@NGcache:&Q2/%J)?oeA&:www.earthscape.or13p33E)1!3!13*ADEAUHC>H1.p,:Vna,eauHchH1.p,:@hlGen@ 1lGusD C>I As E. =. +ilson points outH our s&ecies is the Mgreatest destro;er o< li<e since the ten#3ilometer#wide meteorite landed near the Ducatan and ended the $ge o< 5e&tiles si)t;#<i=e million ;ears ago .Q( <he claim that human im&acts on the global ecological s;stem are leading us down the &ath to large#scale disru&tions o< this s;stem is accurate. $nd the in<er# ence that our s&eciesH li3e that o< the great dinosaursH ma; become e)tinct in the &rocess should be ta3en Juite seriousl;. 2: the col, war is in :act o;er an, we mana1e to pre;ent an9 :uture use o: nuclear weaponsD the three menacing and interrelated &roblems that must be resol=ed in the interest o< human sur=i=al are o=er&o&ulationH global warmingH and loss o< s&ecies di=ersit;. <he :ollowin1 is +ilson's o;er;iew o: the population problem: <he global &o&ulation is &recariousl; largeH and will become much more so be<ore &ea3ing some time aroun,. @umanit; o=erall is im&ro=# ing &er ca&ital &roductionH healthH and longe=it;. But it is doing so b; eating u& the &lanet0s ca&italD inclu,in1 natural resources an, biolo1ical ,i;ersit9 millions o: 9ears ol,. >omo sapiens is approachin1 the limit o: its :oo, an, water suppl9. !nli3e an; s&ecies that li=ed be<oreH it is also changing the world0s atmos&here and climateD lowerin1 an, pollutin1 water tablesD shrin-in1 :orestsD an, sprea,in1 ,eserts. .ost o: the stress ori1inates ,irectl9 or in,irectl9 :rom a han,:ul o: in,ustrialiJe, countries. <heir pro;en :ormulas :or prosperit9 are bein1 ea1erl9 a,opte, b9 12 the rest o: the worl,. >he emulation cannot be sustainedH not with the same le=els o< consum&tion and waste. E=en i< the industrialization o< de=elo&ing countries is onl; &artl; success<ulH the en=ironmental a<ter# shoc3 will dwar< the &o&ulation e)&losion that &receded it." 2n the 1lobal human population was rou1hl9 hal: a billionD in our numbers ha, 1rown to two billionD an, in the count was si bil-lion an, increasin1 at the rate o: each ,a9. <his e ponential increase means that people born in were the :irst to witness a ,ou- blin1 o: the human population in their own li:etimeD :rom billion to more than si billion. >he &roblem <aced in &redicting <uture increases in the global human &o&ulation is that the estimates are e)tremel; sen# siti=e to the re&lacement number or the a=erage number o< children born to each woman . 2n each woman bore an a;era1e o: chil- ,renD but b9 that number ha, ,ecline, to 2: this number ,ecline, toD it is estimate, that there woul, be billion people on earth in an, a le;elin1 o:: o: the human population at billion in 2: the number ,ecrease, sli1htl9 toD the population woul, pea- at billion an, then ,ecline to billion b9 /ut i: the number o: these births is estimates are that the 1lobal human population woul, be billion in an, billion in E=en i< the human birth rate were to decrease to one child &er womanH the global human &o&ulation would not &ea3 <or one or two generations. /ecause estimates o: the number o: people that can be sustaine, in the biosphere o;er an in,e:inite perio, ten, to :all between :i;e an, si teen billionD most e)&erts agree that what is reJuired is not merel; zero &o&ulation growth but negati=e &o&ulation growth.#

Scholars
+, Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Bad# 2ar

Economic growth and an increase o< resources causes con<lict C histor; &ro=es 4eir :ohn * C11-F- !D Economic De;elopment an, the E;olution o: Go;ernment in 6re-2n,ustrial EuropeD 61D
Dartmouth Colle1eD Dpt o: EconomicsD http:33papers.ssrn.com3sol33papers.c:mFabstractHi,G#(($#(I 4E In &re#industrial Euro&eH go=ernment and the econom; de=elo&ed togetherH each in<luencing the other . >he de=elo&ment o< each was sha&ed b; com&etition. Go;ernments compete, :or territor9D principall9 b9 means o: war. <heir success ,epen,e, primaril9 on their abilit9 to mobiliJe resources. So go=ernments that could ta& the resources o< thri=ing economies had an ad=antage o=er go=ernments that could not. =: courseD whether or not an econom9 thri;e, ,epen,e, to no small e tent on the nature an, con,uct o: its 1o;ernment. <his ne)us o< go=ernmentH warH and econom; generated a sort o< c;cle. $ &eriod o< &eace allowed economies to de=elo& and grow. >his economic growth increased the resources a=ailable to go=ernmentsH enabling them to embar3 on militar; ad=entures . +ar an, the means use, to :inance it ,epresse, economic acti;it9 an, e;entuall9 star;e, 1o;ernments o: resources. <his ma,e it impossible :or them to continue :i1htin1. 6eace then returne, an, the econom9 slowl9 reco;ere,. <his set the scene :or another c9cle. Economic growth and war were both sel<#limiting. It is this &olitical#economic c;cle much more than the ,emo1raphic-economic c9cle o: .althus that has been the main obstacle to sustaine, economic pro1ress.
Economic growth ensures <amine through resource de&letionVthis will s&ar3 global resource wars. 4ilbrath -. C4esterD 6ro:essor Emeritus o: 6olitical science an, )ociolo19 at )U*B-/u::aloD En;isionin1 a
)ustainable )ociet9D pp. 343-344D AD: "-(-$I <r9in1 to sol;e our neste, set o: ecolo1ical3economic problems onl9 with technolo1ical :i es is li-e treatin1 an or1anic :ailure with a ban,a1e. <he -e9 ,i::icultiesD which will be i1nore, b9 that strate19 are that biospheric s9stems will chan1e their patterns an, there will be an increasin1 sNueeJe on resources. $s 1lobal human population continues to 1rowD an, these new &eo&le demand economic growth to <ul<ill their needsH there will be unbearable &ressure <or resources. Soils will be de&leted. 9armland will be gobbled u& into urban settlements. +ater will become scarceD more pollute,D an, ;er9 hi1h price,. 7orests will be ,eplete, :aster than the9 can re1enerate. +il,erness will nearl9 ,isappear. <he most easil9 e tracte, mineral ,eposits will be e hauste,. +e will search the :ar corners o: the 1lobeD at ;er9 hi1h economic an, en;ironmental costD :or more minerals an, possible substitutes :or those that are bein1 ,eplete,. 7ossil :uelsD especiall9 petroleumD will constantl9 ,iminish in suppl9 an, rise in price. +orst o: allD biospheric s9stems will react to our inter:erence b9 no lon1er wor-in1 the wa9 we ha;e counte, on. International com&etition <or scarce mineral and <uel resources could become intense and blood;. <he hi1hl9 ,e;elope, nations are li-el9 to tr9 usin1 their mone9 an,3or militar9 power to 1arner the bul- o: the resources :or their own use. C2t is ,i::icult to ima1ine that a bi1 power woul, allow its suppl9 o: critical :uels or minerals to be cut o:: without puttin1 up a :i1ht.I At bestD those actions will onl9 postpone the ine;itable a,Eustment. >he &oorest nations Cusuall9 those with the ,ensest populationsI will be unable to maintain e=en subsistence le=elsV the; are li3el; to su<<er wides&read <amine an, ,isease. All o: this :rantic acti;it9 will ha;e ,e;astatin1 impacts on the ecosphere. Climate chan1e will ,ebilitate e;er9 ecos9stem an, econom9. !ltra=iolet radiation will increaseH as will acid rain and to)ic &oisoning o< our airH soilH and water. In additionH we can e)&ect more and more soil de&letionH loss o< cro& lan,D mismana1ement o: water resourcesD oil spillsD ,e;astatin1 acci,ents C/hopalD Chernob9lID ,e:orestationD sprea,in1 ,esertsD e tinction o: speciesD loss o: wil,li:eD an, air an, water pollution. +ith ,isrupte, biospheric s9stems an, se;ere resource shorta1esD 2 cannot ima1ine that it will be possible to sustain 1rowth in material throu1hput. +e ma9 be able to 1row in nonmaterial wa9s Cincreasin1 -nowle,1eD artistic outputD 1amesD an, so :orthID but material 1rowth cannot continue. =ur en,ea;or not to chan1e will ha;e :aile, to :orestall chan1eU instea,D we will become ;ictims o: chan1e.

Scholars
+Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Bad# 2ar# Goldstein Economic growth breeds war# best em&irical e=idence throughout histor; Goldstein -, C&oshua )D 6oli- )ci P .2< $ Journal o& Con&lict Resolution$ ?ol 31D *o 4D Dec. 1$#"D
http:33www.Estor.or13stable31"41!( D 6. !$1- $2I E< 2h; should an u&turn in economic growth leadD about a ,eca,e laterD to an u&turn in great &ower warS .9 answer is base, on the cost o: wars. >he biggest wars occur onl; when the core countries can a<<ord themH which is a<ter a sustained &eriod o< economic growth C7arrarD 1$""U ?a9r9nenD 1$#3I. +hen treasuries are <ullH countries will be able to wage big warsR when the; are em&t;H countries will not wage such wars.21 <husD when the growth o< &roduction acceleratesH the war#su&&orting ca&acit; o< the s;stem increasesH and bigger wars ensue. >hroughout histor;H wars ha=e cost mone;. In &reindustrial timesH most Euro&ean wars were <ought b; mercenaries hire, b9 monarchs. A :a;orite phrase in this era was Kmone; is the ner=es o< war.I I< the mercenaries were not &aidH the; would not <ight#orH worseD the; would turn on their masters. Braudel C1$"2F describes :i:teenth- to se;enteenthcentur9 Euro&ean wars as mo=ing in surges#the econom; reco=ered <rom one war and was in turn drained b; the ne)t.22
@igh growth wars are the most <reJuent and largest scale Goldstein -, C&oshua )D 6oli- )ci P .2<$ Journal o& Con&lict Resolution$ ?ol 31D *o 4D Dec. 1$#"D
http:33www.Estor.or13stable31"41!( D 6. !$%I E< <he lagged correlations reporte, here suggest a new theor; o< the long wa=eD base, on a two-wa9 causal relationship between economic an, political ;ariables. Sustained economic growth both &romotes PenablesF war an, is ,isrupte, b9 war. 7i1ure 1% illustrates the c9clical seNuence o: pro,uction an, war in this theor9. 9aster growth gi=es rise to increased great &ower war se=erit;. >i1her war se;erit9 in turn ,ampens lon1-term economic 1rowth. 6ower growth leads to less se=ere warH which in turn allows <aster economic growth. <his seNuence ta-es rou1hl9 !% 9ears-one lon1 wa;e-to complete. +hile war an, economic 1rowth are the ,ri;in1 ;ariablesD &rices react to warH and real wages react to war and &rices.
@igh growth wars are the most se=ere Goldstein -, C&oshua )D 6oli- )ci P .2< $ Journal o& Con&lict Resolution$ ?ol 31D *o 4D Dec. 1$#"D
http:33www.Estor.or13stable31"41!( D 6. !$2-$3I E< >his e<<ect o< economic growth on the se=erit; o< war ma; be augmented b; a Ilateral &ressure K e::ect C*orth an, 4a1erstromD 1$"1U Choucri an, *orthD 1$"!U )tric-lan,D 1$#2I. During &roduction u&swingsD the great &owers grow more ra&idl;#heightening com&etition <or world resources and mar3etsH and raising the sta3es <or international com&etition and con<lict. :ondratie<< himsel: C2$2#3 1$#4: $!I attributes the correlation o< maLor wars with long wa=e u&swings to a &rocess much li3e lateral &ressure: >he u&ward mo=ement in business conditionsH an, the 1rowth o: pro,ucti;e :orcesD cause a shar&ening o< the struggle <or new mar3ets -in particularD raw materials mar-ets.. .. W>hisU ma3es <or an a11ra;ation o: international political relationsD an increase in the occasions <or militar; con<lictsH and militar; con<licts themsel=es. 6asswell C1$3!31$(!: 121I li-ewise argues that I&ros&erit; e)&ands mar3etsH intensi<ies contactH shar&ens con<lict and war.K

Scholars
+. Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Bad# 2ar# Goldstein

Economic u&swing is the most &robable route to war Goldstein -* C&oshua )D 6oli )ci P .2<D International Studies .uarterl" ;ol. 2$D *o. 4D Dec 1$#!D
http:33www.Estor.or13stable32(%%3#%D p. 41! I E< >here are strong theoretical reasons <or long economic wa=es and recurring maLor wars to be lin3ed with each other. Causalit; coul, potentiall9 run in both directions. 6ong#term economic u&swings could increase the li3elihood o< war through se=eral mechanisms% C1I the e)&ansionar; u&swing &hase could heighten com&etition <or mar3etsH resources and strategic territor;H raising the li3elihood o< international con:lict an, war C*orth an, 4a1erstromD 1$"1IU C2I long#term &ros&erit; could su&&ort hi1her militar9 e pen,ituresD arms racesD an, the costs o: war C7arrarD 1$""IU an, C3F &ros&erit; could create an aggressi=eH e)&ansionist &s;chological mood conduci=e to war C4asswellD 1$3!: 11(-121I.13 Con;ersel9D maEor wars can a::ect the worl,-econom9D especiall9 prices. >ea;9 e pen,itures :or war 1oo,s raise the o;erall le;el o: ,eman,D while prolon1e, wars o:ten re,uce the o;erall le;el o: pro,uction Cespeciall9 in :ront-line countriesI ,ue to war ,ama1eD labor shorta1esD bloc-a,esD etc. C/ernsteinD 1$4%I. >ence prices ten, to riseD an, in:lation becomes 1lobaliJe, Ce;en a::ectin1 neutralsI ,urin1 a maEor war. <hompson an, Mu- C1$#2I anal9Je the e::ect o:wars on /ritish an, U) wholesale prices C1"!%-1$3# an, 1#1(-1$""D respecti;el9I. <he9 :in, a statisticall9 si1ni:icant increase in prices :ollowin1 the onset o: maEor warsD an, report that Gan im&ressi=e &ro&ortion o< the T:ondratie<iU &rice u&swingsG can be accounted <or b; such wars. 2n a,,ition to pricesD wars ma9 also a::ect other economic ;ariables such as pro,uctionD capital in;estmentD inno;ationD an, emplo9ment.14
Economic !&swings statisticall; cause wars C ,1E see great &ower wars and correlation is e=en stronger Goldstein -* C&oshua )D 6oli )ci P .2<D International Studies .uarterl" ;ol. 2$D *o. 4D Dec 1$#!D
http:33www.Estor.or13stable32(%%3#%D p. 421- 423I E< Columns * and + show the incidence o<war ;ears during u&swings and downswin 1s- column ! measurin1 as a war 9ear an9 9ear in which a 1reat power war was in pro1ressU column ( measurin1 onl9 9ears in which ;er9 maEor wars were in pro1ress. >he <irst measure matches the u&swing/downswing &attern <rom 1*.* onH e)ce&t <or two &eriods C1"4"-1"(1 an, 1$1"-1$3$I. =;erallD ,1 &ercent o< the u&swing ;ears saw great &ower wars in &rogressH as com&ared with *0 &ercent o< the downswing ;ear >he correlation is stronger <or the incidence o< =er; maLor wars Ccolumn (I. <here were no wars this se;ere be:ore 1!$!D but a:ter 1!$! the u&swing/downswing &attern matches the u&s and downs o< war incidence with onl; one e)ce&tio n C1$1"-1$3$ sli1htl9 hi1her than 1#$3-1$1(I. ?< the u&swing ;earsH (0 &ercent saw =er; maLor great &ower war in &rogressH as com&ared with onl; + &ercent o< the downswing ;ears

Scholars
,0 Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Bad# 2ar# Goldstein

Growth causes war to counterbalance economic su&eriorit; GoldsteinH -* W&oshuaD 2nternational stu,ies Nuarterl9D ;2$D n4D p411-444D T8on,ratie:: +a;es as +ar C9clesDQ
EstorX
3. <he Lpower transitionL school C=r1ans-iD 1$!#U 7arrarD 1$"" U=r1ans-i an, 8u1lerD 1$#%U Doran an, 6arsonsD 1$#%U GilpinD 1$#1I hol,s that di<<erences in the growth and de=elo&ment o< national ca&abilities lead to shi<ts in the relati=e
&ower o< the worldGs maLor nations. ?ne nation holds the most &ower<ul &osition in the international orderH while rising &owers Cwith 1rowin1 capabilitiesI tr; to establish anew &lace <or themsel=es in that international order. 2hen a rising challenger has been loc3ed out o< the established orderH or a leading &ower <ears losing its &osition to a challengerH war ma; be used to change or &reser=e the international order. <he power transition mo,el is not e plicitl9 c9clicalD e cept in DoranLs Lpower c9cleL ;ariantD an, e;en in that case is not lin-e,
to the economic lon1 wa;e. 2t coul,D howe;erD help to e plain the ten,enc9 o: maEor wars to recur re1ularl9. A:ter a maEor warD the international or,er is restructure, aroun, winners an, lossers. A lon1 perio, must then elapse be:ore the losers Cor new entrantsI can eNualiJe their capabilities with those o: the ,ominant power Cwhich emer1e, :rom the war with a hea, startI-e;en i: all countries ha;e lon1 since reco;ere, economicall9 :rom the war.
>hese will be nuclear GoldsteinH -* T&oshuaD 2nternational stu,ies Nuarterl9D ;2$D n4D p411-444D T8on,ratie:: +a;es as +ar C9clesDQ
EstorX
7irstD the inci,ence o: 1reat power war is ,eclinin1-more an, more LpeaceL 9ears separate the 1reat power wars. )econ,D an, relate,D the 1reat power wars are becomin1 shorter. <hir,D howe;erD those wars are becoming more se=ere#annual <atalities during war increasing more than a hundred# <old o=er the <i=e centuries . 9ourth Can, more tentati;el9ID the war c;cle ma; be graduall; lengthening in each successi;e eraD :rom about 4% 9ears in the :irst era to about (% 9ears in the thir,. >he &resence o< nuclear wea&ons has continued these trends in great &ower war <rom the &ast <i=e
centuries#an; great &ower wars in this era will li3el; be <ewerH shorter and much more deadl;.

Scholars
Im&acts# Econ Bad# 2ar# Goldstein# 6ong 2a=e >heor; De<ense

6ong wa=e theor; &ro=en# more than 10 e)am&les Goldstein * C&oshD poli sci P .2<D NAT0 Con&erenceD 7eb !D http:33www.Eoshua1ol,stein.com3E1-on,.htm I E<
4oo-in1 :orwar,D mo=ing cloc3wise aroun, 7i1ure 2D I &roLected that an u&turn in &roductionD mar-in1 a chan1e :rom the Tsta1nationQ Nuarter-c9cle to the TrebirthQ phaseD would be the ne)t de=elo&mentD perhaps startin1 in the mid#1..0s C2 woul, now sa9 1$$2I. )peci:icall9D the Tsta1nationQ phase Crunnin1 :rom 1$#% to 1$$1I was ,e:ine, as :ollows: Tpro,uction 1rowth is low an, une;enU in;estment is lowU war se;erit9 ,eclinesU in:lation is low Cor prices e;en ,eclineIU inno;ations be1in risin1U real wa1es :all.Q >he subseJuent MrebirthO &hase
starting b; the mid#1..0s was de<ined thus% M&roduction growth &ic3s u& againH in=estment <ollowsR &rices are lowR war se=erit; is lowR inno=ation is highR real wages are high. During that rebirth &hase D accor,in1 to m9 theor9D great#&ower war and militar; s&ending would continue a downward trend that 2 ,ate, :rom the late 1$"%sD while in:lation remaine, in chec- but pro,uction 1rowth accelerate,. Barron0s magazine in 1.-- subtitled an inter=iewH M/oshua Goldstein 6oo3s to the 1i<t; X.0s.O >hese &roLections o< an u&coming &hase o< &ros&erit; and &eace ran counter to the short# term trends and con=entional wisdom in the late 1.-0s. 6resi,ent 0onal, 0ea1an ha, re;erse, the post-?ietnam tren, b9 sharpl9 increasin1 militar9 spen,in1D while TCol, +ar 22Q ha, replace, an earlier perio, o: ,Ztente. >hese trends were Mcounter#c;clicalDQ 2 wrote. >he idealized long wa=e scheme in 9igure 2 was not intended to trac3 long#wa=e &hase timing e)actl; D but in :act it
trac-s Nuite well. <a-in1 literall9 the timin1 o: the seNuence shown in 7i1ure 2D we ma9 set the Tprice pea-Q at the top to 1$#% A the last :irm point o: re:erence at the time o: writin1 in the late 1$#%s. <he price pea- in,icates the en, o: a phase o: hi1her in:lation an,D historicall9D a perio, o: price ,e:lation Cas between the +orl, +arsID or in recent times a perio, merel9 o: lower in:lation. At the same time H the real wage trough indicates a rising trend in real wages Pwhich re<lect in<lation in=ersel;F. $bout twel=e ;ears into the c;cle D or 1$$2D woul, be the pro,uction trou1hD indicating a &ic3u& in the &ace o< &roduction growth a<ter a long sluggish &eriod . 2n 1$$!D the in;estment trou1h mar-s a similar upturn in in;estmentD an, aroun, nineteen 9ear a:ter the price pea-D or 1$$$D inno;ations pea- an, be1in a perio, o: either ,ecline or slower 1rowth in inno;ation. 7inall9D out aroun, 21 9ears into the c9cleD or 2%%1D the war trou1h in,icates a new upturn in militar9 spen,in1 Chistoricall9 an upturn in 1reat-power war se;erit9I. <he price trou1h Cen,in1 a hal:-c9cle o: low in:lationI woul, come at TV3- 2!K 9earsD aroun, 2%%!.
6ong wa=e theor; &ro=ed b; 2001 Goldstein * C&oshD poli sci P .2<D NAT0 Con&erenceD 7eb !D http:33www.Eoshua1ol,stein.com3E1-on,.htm I E<
$ccording to m; long#wa=e seJuenceH sometime aroun, 1.,, should ha=e mar3ed the end o< a war u&swing &eriod and the start o< a downswing to last until roughl; the turn o< the centur;. <he interestin1 thin1 about the &roLection in the late 1.-0s is that !.S. militar; s&ending had recentl; re=ersed a long trend o< decline and risen somewha t Ce;en as a percent o: a risin1 GD6I. >he long#wa=e model &roLected a renewed downward trend D an, that is what actuall9 occurre, C7i1ure 3I. In terms o< !.S. militar; s&endingH howe=erH the 1.,, date would seem somewhat late . C<he 1$4%-#% war upswin1 has alwa9s been problematical in m9 scheme because o: the hu1e war ri1ht at the startI. In terms o< long#wa=e timingD the new u&turn in !.S. militar; s&ending since 2001Csee 7i1ure 3I is worrisomeH as it coul, si1nal the startin1 1un :or a new lon1-term upswin1 o: risin1 militar9
spen,in1D an upswin1 that coul, e;en culminate in another ruinous 1reat-power war in the comin1 ,eca,es.
6ong wa=e theor; &ro=en right b; the .00s Goldstein * C&oshD poli sci P .2<D NAT0 Con&erenceD 7eb !D http:33www.Eoshua1ol,stein.com3E1-on,.htm I E<
I am not sure how best to measure &roduction A in m9 earlier research 2 use, se;eral scholars' lon1-term pro,uction in,e es A but the growth o< Gross Domestic 6ro,uct PGD8F seems a good measure to start with. <he 6enn +orl, <able W"X pro;i,es GD6 ,ata a,Euste, :or purchasin1-power parit9. 2n 7i1ure ! 2 ha;e 1raphe, the 1rowth rate in the U.). GD6 per capitaD a,Euste, :or in:lation. $ccording the long#wa=e seJuenceH the &hase <rom 1.+. to 1..1 should be characterized b; slow and une=en growth D then the perio, since 1$$1 b9 more robust 1rowth. 2hat one sees in the data is not so much a slowdown and then s&eed#u& o: per capita GD6 1rowthD but rather a greater =olatilit; and then stabilit;. Durin1 the nominal pro,uction T,ownswin1Q o: 1$($-$1D e;er-lower ;alle9s an, e;er-hi1her pea-s alternate rapi,l9I. >hen in the nominal &roduction u&swing <rom 1..2 <orwardH we see a dramatic stabilization o< growth rates C around ' &ercent a ;ear in real &er ca&ita terms C <or a solid nine ;ears. 2 am not sure what to ma-e o: this stable perio,D but it is an interesting change Lust at the time the long#wa=e seJuence calls <or a &hase shi<t in &roduction growth.

Scholars
Im&acts# Econ Bad# 2ar# Goldstein# 6ong 2a=e >heor; De<ense

Goldstein0s long wa=e theories em&iricall; correct Goldstein -, C&oshua )D 6oli- )ci P .2<D Journal o& Con&lict Resolution$ ?ol 31D *o 4D Dec. 1$#"D
http:33www.Estor.or13stable31"41!( D introI E<
<his article summariJes the main empirical :in,in1s o: a research proEect on lon1 wa;es o: rou1hl9 !% 9ears len1th in political3economic li:e. <he
statistical anal;sis o< (0 historical economic time seriesH along with data on great &ower warsH indicates that war &la;s a central role in the long wa=eH that Istag<lationI can be seen as a &hase o< the long wa=eH and that war dam&ens economic growth. )ince 14$!D lon1 wa;es are i,enti:ie, in 1reat power war se;erit9 an, in internationall9 s9nchroniJe, tren,s o: prices
an, real wa1es. +ea-er lon1 wa;es are :oun, in worl, pro,uction since 1"!%D these phases lea,in1 the war phases b9 about a ,eca,e. A theoretical mo,el consistent with these la11e, correlations amon1 ;ariables is elaborate,. 6ong wa=es are seen as arising <rom a two#wa; causalit;
between war and economic growth.

Scholars
,' Econ Growth Good/Bad
2mpacts- Econ /a,- +ar- Gol,stein- 4on1 <heor9 De:ense

6ong wa=e theories true# 10 e)am&les Goldstein -* C&oshua )D 6oli )ci P .2<D International Studies .uarterl" ;ol. 2$D *o. 4D Dec 1$#!D
http:33www.Estor.or13stable32(%%3#%D intro I E< :ondratie<< long economic wa=es are <ound in the core o< the world# s;stemD at least in s9nchroniJe, price mo;ementsD <rom 1(.* through 1.(*. >hese long economic wa=es are s;nchronous with a c;cle o< war between core nationsH in which an escalator; war u&swing recurs rou1hl9 e=er; *0 ;ears. >hese great &ower wars apparentl9 &la; a central role in the economic long wa=eD especiall9 in connection with in:lationar9 perio,s on lon1 wa;e upswin1s. >he long wa=es o< economics and war in the core o< the world#s;stem can be traced through ten re&etitions since 1(.*R since aroun, 1$4!D howe;erD warD prices an, pro,uction ha;e ,i;er1e,. =;er :i;e centuriesD the war c;cle has lengthened somewhatH the wars themsel=es ha=e shortenedH and their se=erit; has increased a hundred<old.
6ong wa=es are true# &rice series &ro=e Goldstein -* C&oshua )D 6oli )ci P .2<D International Studies .uarterl" ;ol. 2$D *o. 4D Dec 1$#!D
http:33www.Estor.or13stable32(%%3#%D p. 413 I E<
+hile these :our theories shape the main lines o: the ,ebateD a number o: h9bri, theories combine an, supplement them. <hese inclu,e the wor- o: 0ostow C1$"!D 1$"#ID combinin1 elements o: the capital an, inno;ation theories but ultimatel9 :ocusin1 on the relati;e prices o: primar9 an, secon,ar9 1oo,sU o: ?an DuiEn C1$#3ID combinin1 capital an, inno;ationU o: 8lein-necht C1$#1ID combinin1 inno;ation an, capitalist crisisU an, o: >op-ins an, +allerstein C1$"$I an, /ousNuet C1$#%ID combinin1 a .ar ist interpretation o: war3he1emon9 with capitalist crisis. Despite the ,i::erences between the <our a&&roachesH the; all agree C:ollowin1 8on,ratie::Ls ,atin1I regarding the a&&ro)imate dating o< u&swings and downswings during 1,.0#1.22 Cthe perio, co;ere, b9 8on,ratie::I. >owe;erD :or the perio, be:ore 1"$% the9 ,isa1ree about whether lon1 wa;es e ist at allU an, :or the perio, since aroun, +orl, +ar 22 Csee DuprieJD 1$"#U +allersteinD 1$"$ID the perio,iJations base, on pro,uction Ce.1.D .an,elD 1$#%I ,i;er1e :rom those base, on prices Ce.1.D 0ostowD 1$"#ID or on war Ce.1.D .o,els-iD 1$#1 F. Em&iricall;D the e;i,ence :or economic lon1 wa;es has been mi e,. 7or price seriesD there is :airl9 strong e=idence that u&swings and downswings match a&&ro)imatel; the datings gi=en b; :ondratie<D :or 1"$%-1$22 CGor,onD 1$"#U 0ostowD 1$"#U ?an EwiE-D 1$#2U Clear9 an, >obbsD 1$#3I. 7or pro,uction an, tra,e seriesD howe;erD there is contro;ers9 o;er the techniNue o: remo;in1 lon1er-term secular tren,s an, i,enti:9in1 lon1 wa;es in the resi,uals. <he secular tren, can be h9pothesiJe, as linearD e ponentialD or cubicD an, the results ;ar9 accor,in1l9. 6ong wa=es are more strongl; e=ident in &rice series than &roduction series C?an EwiE-D 1$#2U Clear9 an, >obbsD 1$#3I. >owe;erD o&inion still ranges <rom the =iew that long wa=es are no more than an accidental series o< u&s and downs Csee re;iews b9 E-lun,D 1$#%U an, 0osenber1 an, 7rischta-D 1$#3ID to the ;iew that lon1 wa;es can be :oun, in pro,uction as well as price ,ata C.an,elD 1$#%I.
$nd the methods used are tested in multi&le wa;s# theories are correct Goldstein -* C&oshua )D 6oli )ci P .2<D International Studies .uarterl" ;ol. 2$D *o. 4D Dec 1$#!D
http:33www.Estor.or13stable32(%%3#%D p. 41$ I E< <hir,D wars were correlated with economic &hase &eriods in se=eral wa;s. Each war was categorized as ha=ing occurred &rimaril; in one &hase &eriod.2( <hese war cate1oriJations are liste, in Appen,i 2. 9atalities <rom the wars in each &hase &eriod were summedH and e)&ressed as an a=erage annual <atalit; le=el :or each phase perio,. $=erage <atalities on downswings and u&swings could thus be com&aredH and it was h;&othesized that the; would be higher on the u&swings. $=erage annual <atalities were also calculated <or each &hase &eriod b; a second method#cutting the <atalit; time series strictl; at each turning &oint between &hases. <his metho, counts Lo;erlapL 9ears :rom a war into an a,Eacent phase perio,D an, Cwhen compare, to the :irst metho,I in,icates sensiti;it9 to the choice o: turnin1 points. 1umbers o< wars were also counted <or each &hase &eriod

Scholars
,( Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Bad# $2% 2ar# Econ good

Growth doesn0t sto& wars# 20th centur; shows 9erguson + C*ialD pro: P >ar;ar,D Forei n a&&airs$ 1%.(.(I E<
It might ha=e been e)&ected that such &ros&erit; would eliminate the causes o< war. /ut much o< the worst =iolence o< the twentieth centur; in=ol=ed the relati=el; wealth; countries at the opposite en,s o: Eurasia. >he chie< lesson o< the twentieth centur; is that countries can &ro=ide their citizens with wealthH longe=it;H literac;H and e=en democrac; but still descend into lethal con<lict . 4eon >rots3; nicel; summed u& the &arado) when re:lectin1 on the 7irst /al-an +ar o: 1$12-13D which he co;ere, as a reporter. <he con:lictD <rots-9 wroteD Kshows that we still ha=enGt crawled out on all <ours <rom the barbaric stage o< our histor;. 2e ha=e learned to wear sus&endersH to write cle=er editorialsH and to ma3e chocolate mil3H but when we ha=e to decide seriousl; a Juestion o< the coe)istence o< a <ew tribes on a rich &eninsula o< Euro&eH we are hel&less to <ind a wa; other than mutual mass slaughter.I <rots-9 later ma,e his own contribution to the histor9 o: mass slau1hter as the peopleLs commissar :or war an, as the comman,er o: the 0e, Arm9 ,urin1 the 0ussian Ci;il +ar.
$nd economic decline doesn0t cause war# em&irics &ro=e 9erguson + C*ialD pro: P >ar;ar,D Forei n a&&airs$ 1%.(.(I E<
*or can economic crises e)&lain the bloodshed. 2hat ma; be the most <amiliar causal chain in mo,ern historio1raph9 lin3s the Great De&ression to the rise o< <ascism and the outbrea3 o< 2orld 2ar II . /ut that sim&le stor; lea=es too much out. 1azi German; started the war in Europe onl9 a<ter its econom; had reco=ered. 1ot all the countries a<<ected b; the Great De&ression were ta3en o=er b; <ascist regimesH nor did all such regimes start wars o< aggression. 2n :actD no general relationshi& between economics and con<lict is discernible <or the centur; as a whole. )ome wars came a:ter perio,s o: 1rowthD others were the causes rather than the conseNuences o: economic catastropheD an, some se;ere economic crises were not :ollowe, b9 wars.

Scholars
,* Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Bad# 2ar# $2% Interde&endence

Economic interde&endence won0t sto& war# 22I and current da; >aiwan &otential &ro=e Innocent . C.alouD 7orei1n polic9 anal9st P Cato instituteD Real Clear !orldD 7eb 2"D
http:33www.realclearworl,.com3articles32%%$3%23chinaHpeaceHpartnerHorHwarmon1.html I E< 2hile there is some e=idence to su&&ort the &resum&tion that China will become ad=ersarialH others see China becoming a status Juo &ower see3ing &eace<ul relations with the rest o: the 1lobal communit9. 7or these e pertsD the &otential <or hostile !S#China relations is all the more reason to encourage BeiLingGs integration into the global economic and trading s;stemD which ma9 un,ermine ChinaLs propensit9 to base its interests simpl9 in militar9 terms. <o put a twist on the ol, sa9in1D so lon1 as 1oo,s cross bor,ersD sol,iers wonLt. *ations that tra,e an, cooperate are less li-el9 to 1o to warD an, 1i;en to,a9Ls economic climateD itLs hope, that Chinese an, American strate1ic interests are con;er1in1 because o: economic inter,epen,ence. Economic interde&endenceD o: courseD doesnGt &reclude war. Strong trade ties between Britain and German; didnGt &re=ent the outbrea3 o< 2orld 2ar I. 1ations ma; be willing to <orgo economic gains i< it con<licts with their strategic interests. ?ne &otential <lash &oint between the !nited States and China is >aiwan. .an9 belie;e that the U) is committe, to protect the peace an, securit9 o: <aiwan :rom coercion b9 /eiEin1 un,er the <aiwan 0elations Act o: 1$"$.
Economic interde&endence doesn0t &re=ent con<lict >he $merican 10 Chttp:33blo1.american.com3Fpa1eHi,G134#(D The American$ &an 1%I E<
As 4arison points outD $merica0s global &resence o=er the &ast +0 ;ears has not &re=ented con<licts Can,D 2 woul, assumeD miscalculationI :rom occurrin1. 1or would I ma3e such a claim. Det the increasing degree o< instabilit;H tensionH and con<lict that is normal in international a<<airs can onl; be e)acerbated under conditions where both the e)isting hegemon; and the acce&ted rules o< the game C1lobal tra,eD :or e ampleI are wea3ening or increasin1l9 seen as ine::ecti;e. <o ta-e one current claimD e;er9one -nows that China bene<its enormousl; <rom the current global <ree trade regime D as well as :rom American willin1ness to pro;i,e public 1oo,s such as maintainin1 :ree,om o: the seas. 4an; assume that China would there<ore do nothing to 3ill the goose that la;s the golden egg. I would sim&l; res&ond that we ha=e no wa; o< 3nowing what calculations BeiLing would ma3e in a world in which current rules o< trade and na=igation and $merican militar; ca&abilit; Ci: not willI no lon1er operate. 6erhaps China0s leadershi&D instea, o: steppin1 up to :ill the ;oi,D woul, pre:er to a;oi, uncertaint9 an, be satis:ie, with a smaller slice o: the pie that the9 coul, controlD sa9D the tra,e routes alon1 the )outh China )ea. 8erha&s globalization would ma3e this im&ossibleVtr;ing to se&arate the strands o< economic interde&endenceVbut that doesn0t mean BeiLing might not tr; D lea,in1 to un-nown responses on the part o: 2n,iaD &apanD A)EA* countriesD etc. <he possibilit9 o: ban,-wa1onin1 on the part o: smaller nations woul, increase ,ramaticall9D :urther complicatin1 the responses o: bi11er powers.

Scholars
,+ Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Bad# $2% S&ace

S&ace budget alread; cut# im&acts em&iricall; denied# and mars doesn0t matter 4c4a3en 10 C09anD political science at Arapahoe Communit9 Colle1eD apr 13D 1%D The /RC Blo D
http:33www.lewroc-well.com3blo13lewrw3archi;es3!!(%%.html I E< ?bama has ,one one ,ecent thin1 an, mo;e, to cut <unds to the s&ace &rogram. *eil Armstron1 has con,emne, =bama :or it. <here are two thou1hts that imme,iatel9 come to me as a result: 1. T)o whatFQ an, 2. T+ho cares what *eil Armstron1 thin-sFQ Ar1uments in :a;or o: the space pro1ram are base, on two thin1s: sentimentalism an, militarism. <he militaristic ar1ument is the more sophisticate, one. <he space pro1ramD behin, its ;eneer o: ci;ilian purposeD has alwa9s been a militar9 pro1ram :oun,e, to impro;e roc-et technolo19D an, e;entuall9D to pro;i,e the Unite, )tates with militar9 superiorit9 o;er space itsel:. <he sentimentalism is the rationale that most Americans subscribe to as the9 1et mist9 e9e, o;er :antasies about Tthe human spiritQ an, T,estin9Q an, all those other concepts :rom >oll9woo, a,;enture :ilms. 7rom a pra1matic point o: ;iewH the s&ace &rogram is nothing more than a massi=e socialist s&ending &rogram with militaristic intentD but which bene:its han,somel9 :rom h9sterical an, mau,lin appeals to hope in the 1o;ernment's abilit9 to accomplish an9thin1 pro;i,e, enou1h time an, ta pa9ers' loot. In this age o< budding &ri=ate s&ace tra=elH than3s to organizations li3e Airgin GalacticH go=ernment s&ace tra=el is more unLust and obsolete than e=er. BetD 1lori:ie, crash test ,ummies li-e *eil Armstron1 :eel :ree to throw hiss9 :its i: someone ,ares to slow the :low o: ta pa9er ,ollars to his pet proEects. >a;in1 spent ,eca,es o: his li:e as a militar9 bureaucrat on the 1o;ernment ,oleD it is be9on, comprehension to Armstron1 that 1o;ernment spen,in1 on the space pro1ram is unnecessar9 an, totall9 waste:ul. An,D e;en i: one 1rante, that space e ploration were a 1oo, thin1D one woul, still be a lon1 wa9 :rom ,emonstratin1 the nee, :or manne, space :li1ht. Armstron1 an, others who ha;e wal-e, on the moon ha;e ,one absolutel9 nothin1 that a robot coul, not ha;e ,one. >he 4ars missions are a &er<ect e)am&le o< Lust how su&er<luous humans are to s&ace e)&loration in the earl; 21st centur;. @a=ing a human wander around on the sur<ace o< 4ars will tell us nothing more about the airH the soilH or the gra=itational &ull than we alread; 3now . /utD in the en,D it's all Eust special-interest an, partisan politics. /roa,l9 spea-in1D the Dems' primar9 power base comes :rom Unions an, non-whites an, en;ironmentalists. <he G=6s power base comes :rom white males an, the militar9 establishment. It0s onl; natural that ?bama would cut some militar; s&endingH in the <orm o< 1$S$ dollarsH to throw some mone; to some o< his base. Armstron1 can rest assure, that the ne t G=6 presi,ent will sho;el plent9 o: portowar, the space pro1ram.

Scholars
,, Econ Growth Good/Bad
Ima&cts# Econ Bad# S&ace

Economic growth allows <or s&ace militarization $nzera 0* CGiuseppeD Contributor to the Asian <imes =nlineD )tar +arsD
http:33www.atimes.com3atimes37rontH6a1e3G>1#Aa%1.htmlI E< >he second &roblem is economic. ?rbital wea&ons - as the )trate1ic De:ense 2nitiati;e showe, in the 1$#%s - are e)tremel; e)&ensi=e. It has been estimated that a s&ace de<ense s;stem a1ainst wea- ballistic missile stri-es could cost between O22% billion an, K1 trillion. A laser-base, s9stem to be use, a1ainst ballistic missiles woul, cost about O1%% million :or each tar1et.
$nd s&ace mil leads to nuclear wars. Deblois 0' C/ruce .. DebloisD Director o: )9stems 2nte1ration at /AE )B)<E.)D "-!-%3D T<he A,;ent o: )pace
+eaponsDQ AstropoliticsD http:33www.c:r.or13content3publications3attachments3/er1manH11ast%3.p,:I E< <he simple unilateral &osturing o< s&ace wea&ons creates global instabilit; in the <orm o< encouraging ad=ersaries to res&ond s;mmetricall; or as;mmetricall;H heightening tensions D while at the same time cripplin1 alliances. 2n this less stable 1lobal en;ironmentD there is also the prospect o: space weapons causin1 less stable re1ional en;ironments. 2nte1ratin1 space weapons into militar9 operations coul, ha;e une pecte, conseNuences :or the pro1ression o: con:lict situationsD promptin1 si1ni:icant re1ional instabilit9. 2n most war 1ames that inclu,e s&ace assetsD comman,ers ,isco;er that preempti;el9 ,estro9in1 or ,en9in1 an opponentLs space-base, assets with space weapons is appealin1D 9et o<ten leads to ra&id escalation into <ull# scale warH e=en triggering nuclear wea&ons use. =ne comman,er commente,: LW2:X 2 ,onLt -now whatLs 1oin1 onD 2 ha;e no choice but to hit e;er9thin1D usin1 e;er9thin1 2 ha;eL. <hat this conclusion surprise, strate1ists su11ests that the :ull implications o: space weapons ha;e not 9et been :ull9 e plore,. +hat is common -nowle,1eD ,eri;e, :rom 9ears o: e perience in :uturistic war 1amesD is that permanentl9 base, space weapons in;ite pre-emption an, escalation. 4ocal to a speci:ic situation o: hei1htene, tensionsD the e istence o: s&ace wea&ons on one si,eD the otherD or both could be the determining catal;st <or escalator; war.

Scholars
,Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Bad# >errorism

Growth creates terrorists C em&iricall; &ro=en C all the big guns are loaded 5adu . C.ichael is a senior :ellow at the 7orei1n 6olic9 0esearch 2nstitute 6h.D.DID <he :utile search :or Troot
causesQ o: <errorismD http:33www.unc.e,u3,epts3,iplomat3archi;esHroll 32%%2H%"-%$ 3ra,uH:utile3ra,uH:utile.html >hose who hold to I&o=ert; as the root causeI do so e=en though the data does not <it their model . E=en lea=ing aside multimillionaire ?sama bin 6adenH the bac3grounds o< the Se&tember 11 3illers indicates that the; were without e)ce&tion scions o< &ri=ilege% all were either a<<luent Saudis and Eg;&tiansH citizens o< the wealth; Gul< stateletsH or rich sons o< 6ebanonH trained in and <amiliar with the wa;s o< the 2estVnot e)actl; the =ictims o< &o=ert; in .uslim ,ictatorships. 4an; &oor Eg;&tiansH 4oroccansH and 8alestinians ma; su&&ort terroristsH but the; do notVand cannotV&ro=ide them with recruits. In <actH $l "aeda has no use <or illiterate &easants. >he; cannot &artici&ate in 2orld >rade Center#li3e attac3sH unable as the; are to ma3e themsel=es incons&icuous in the 2est and lac3ing the education and training terrorist o&erati=es need.
>errorism will escalate into e)tinction

4organ . CDennisD @an3u3 !ni=ersit; o< 9oreign StudiesH Dongin Cam&us # South :orea 9uturesH Aolume (1H Issue 10H December 200.H 8ages +-'#+.'H 2orld on 9ireF 66
.oore points out what most terrorists ob;iousl9 alrea,9 3now about the nuclear tensions between power:ul countries. *o ,oubtD the;0=e <igured out that the best wa; to escalate these tensions into nuclear war is to set o<< a nuclear e)change. As .oore points outD all that militant terrorists would ha=e to do is get their hands on one small nuclear bomb and e)&lode it on either 4oscow or Israel. Because o< the 5ussian Mdead handO s;stemH Mwhere regional nuclear commanders would be gi=en <ull &owers should 4oscow be destro;edHO it is li3el; that an; attac3 would be blamed on the !nited StatesO Israeli leaders an, Mionist supporters ha=eH li-ewiseD stated :or 9ears that i< Israel were to su<<er a nuclear attac3H whether <rom terrorists or a nation stateH it would retaliate with the suici,al T)amson optionQ a1ainst all maEor .uslim cities in the .i,,le East. 7urthermoreD the 2sraeli )amson option woul, also inclu,e attac-s on 0ussia an, e;en Tanti-)emiticQ European cities 2n that caseD o: courseD 5ussia would retaliateH and the !.S. would then retaliate against 5ussia. China would &robabl; be in=ol=ed as wellH as thousan,sD i: not tens o: thousan,sD o: nuclear warheadsD man9 o: them much more power:ul than those use, at >iroshima an, *a1asa-iD would rain u&on most o< the maLor cities in the 1orthern @emis&here. $<terwardsH <or ;ears to comeH massi=e radioacti=e clouds would dri<t throughout the Earth in the nuclear <alloutH bringing death or else radiation disease that would be geneticall; transmitted to <uture generations in a nuclear winter that coul, last as lon1 as a 1%% 9earsD ta-in1 a sa;a1e toll upon the en;ironment an, :ra1ile ecosphere as well. An, what man9 people :ail to realiJe is what a precariousD hair-tri11er basis the nuclear web rests on. $n; accidentH mista3en communicationH <alse signal or Mlone wol<0 act o< sabotage or treason couldH in a matter o< a <ew minutesH unleash the use o< nuclear wea&onsH and once a wea&on is usedH then the li3elihood o< a ra&id escalation o< nuclear attac3s is Juite high while the li-elihoo, o: a limite, nuclear war is actuall9 less probable since each countr9 woul, act un,er the Tuse them or lose themQ strate19 an, ps9cholo19U restraint b9 one power woul, be interprete, as a wea-ness b9 the otherD which coul, be e ploite, as a win,ow o: opportunit9 to TwinQ the war. 2n other wor,sD once 6an,oraLs /o is opene,D it will sprea, Nuic-l9D as it will be the si1nal :or permission :or an9one to use them. .oore compares swi:t nuclear escalation to a room :ull o: people embarrasse, to cou1h. =nce one ,oesD howe;erD Te;er9one else :eels :ree to ,o so. <he bottom line is that as lon1 as lar1e nation states use internal an, e ternal war to -eep their ,isparate :actions 1lue, to1ether an, to satis:9 elites' nee,s :or power an, plun,erD these nations will attempt to obtainD -eepD an, ine;itabl9 use nuclear weapons. An, as long as large nations o&&ress grou&s who see3 sel<#determinationH some o< those grou&s will loo3 <or an; means to <ight their o&&ressorsO In other wordsH as long as war and aggression are bac3ed u& b; the im&licit threat o< nuclear armsH it is onl; a matter o< time be<ore the escalation o< =iolent con<lict leads to the actual use o< nuclear wea&onsH an, once e;en Eust one is use,D it is =er; li3el; that man;H i< not allH will be usedH leading to horri<ic scenarios o< global death and the destruction o< much o< human ci=ilization while condemning a mutant human remnantH i< there is such a remnantH to a li<e o< unimaginable miser; and su<<ering in a nuclear winter.

Scholars
,. Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Bad# $2% Democrac;# 9reidman Indicts

9riedman anal;sis <lawed C doesn0t ta3e into account multi&le Lob <actors Etzioni + CAmitaiD Department o: 2nternational A::airsD <he .oral 4imits o: Economic GrowthD
http:33www.amitaietJioni.or13,ocuments3D"$.p,:D 123!3%(D AD: "3(3%$I As 2 see itD hi1h economic growthH es&eciall; in de=elo&ed nationsH entails sacri<icing e=er more o< the elements that ma3e <or a good societ;. >he wa9 this comes about is ;i;i,l9 illustrate, b9 a sill9 but ,eli1ht:ul stor9 in
&ules ?ern's Aroun, the +orl, in Ei1ht Da9s. =n the last le1 o: the tripD the locomoti;e that ser;es the race is runnin1 out o: coal. <o -eep it runnin1D :irst the walls o: the wa1ons are :e, into the :ire an, then those o: the caboose itsel:D lea;in1 the racin1 passen1ers sittin1 on a bare ro,D in the col, with barel9 an9thin1 to hol, onto. >he 2estH es&eciall; the !nited StatesH is mo=ing in
this direction b; sacri<icing e=er more <or e<<icienc;. >he M2(/, societ;O is an e)aggerated but &ro&er term <or the direction in which the Mha=eO societies are mo=ing in order to engage in un<ettered com&etition with &eo&le who ha=e <ew health care bene<itsH no retirements <undsH no wor3er com&ensationH and &a; no mind to the en=ironment. >he; hence wor3 longer and harder and ha=e less time <or their chil,renD spousesD el,erl9 parentsD communitiesD cultures an, much else. 9riedman argues that o=er the &ast 200 ;ears the wor3wee3 in the !nited States has declined. @owe=erH since 1.+( the a=erage wor3wee3 has hardl; changed. Abo;e allD o;er the past 3% 9ears or soD household income has increased while per
capita income has barel9 chan1e, because more an, more women ha;e turne, to 1ain:ul emplo9mentD so that now it ta-es about 1." wor-ers to earn the same househol, income that one wor-er use, to earn. .oreo;erD gi=en that most women are now gain<ull; em&lo;edH <urther increases in household income must come :rom somewhere else. 2t is now achie;e, b9 more an, more hi1h school stu,ents wor-in1 as man9 as 2% hours a wee- or more in :ast :oo, restaurants an, other such EobsD an, more an, more senior citiJens bein1 :orce, to wor- Calthou1h o:ten o:: the boo-s an, hence to re:lecte, in man9 statisticsI. 2n a,,itionD more &eo&le are ta3ing wor3 home with themD to 6<A an, rare town hall meetin1sD an, e;en to the beachD in what mi1ht be calle, the T/lac-berr9 culture.Q >he result is that there are <ew human resources to attend to the members
o< the householdH the sic3H the elderl;H <riendsH and social and cultural acti=ities.
9riedman doesn0t ta3e into account basic sur=i=al instincts Etzioni + CAmitaiD Department o: 2nternational A::airsD <he .oral 4imits o: Economic GrowthD
http:33www.amitaietJioni.or13,ocuments3D"$.p,:D 123!3%(D AD: "3(3%$I Un:ortunatel9D 9riedman0s argument cannot accommodate the 4aslowian notion that at some &ointH once one0s needs <or basic creature com<orts are satedH one might be better o<<# and indeed a better human beingH one much more willing to allow others to catch u&#i< oneGs satis<actions were dri=en b; greater Iin=estmentI in relationshi&s and cultureH which reJuire <ew economic resources. 7or instanceD embracing a set o< =alues de<ined b; =oluntar; sim&licit; Ca mo,erate ;ersion o: the countercultureI or a ci;ic reli1ion o: communitarianism can ser=e as a normati=e counterweight to re<erence grou&s that s&ur &eo&le to wor3 harder <or goods the; do not trul; need. >his in turn ma; release such goods to those who ha=e not ;et gained whate=er creature com<orts the; reJuire#without an; sense o< loss or sacri<ice in other sectors o< societ;.

Scholars
-0 Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ bad# $2% Democrac;# 9riedman Indicts Cont0d

$nal;sis <lawed and arbitrar; C no inter&retation o< moral conseJuences 2il3inson + C+illD Cato 2nstituteD /oo- 0e;iewsD http:33www.cato.or13pubs3Eournal3cE2(n13cE2(n1-11.p,:D
431%3%(D AD: "3(3%$I BenLamin 9riedman0s >he 4oral ConseJuences o< Economic Growth is ma1ni:icent an, <lawed. 2t is a wor- o: astoun,in1 scholarship an, e hilaratin1 intellectual ima1ination as well as ,isappointin1 partisanship an, theoretical :ra1ilit9. 4oral ConseJuences is &rimaril; an e)tended de<ense o: the h9pothesis that stea,9 economic 1rowth T:osters 1reater
opportunit9D tolerance o: ,i;ersit9D social mobilit9D commitment to :airness an, ,e,ication to ,emocrac9Q Cp. 4I. <he h9pothesis is ,e:en,e, with a spectacular ran1e o: e;i,ence :rom ,isciplines inclu,in1 economic an, political histor9 as well as popular culture an, literature. >owe;erD as the boo3 &roceedsH it becomes increasingl; di<<icult to sa; what e)actl; 9riedman
means b; Mmoral conseJuences.O $nd that in a nutshell is the big &roblem <or this big boo3. $s 9riedman shi<ts without comment or Lusti<ication <rom a broad Enlightenment conce&tion o< moral &rogress to a rather &arochial $merican wel<are#statist conce&tion o< &olitical moralit;H the nature and im&ortance o< the de&endent =ariable in 9riedman0s eJuation becomes e=er more elusi=e. 2ithout a rather more rigorous normati=e <ramewor3H the reader is le<t arguing with the author about whether the e)am&les he has chosen to &ro=e his &oint reall; count <or or against it.
9riedman0s wor3 is to arbitrar; and contradictor; 2il3inson + C+illD Cato 2nstituteD /oo- 0e;iewsD http:33www.cato.or13pubs3Eournal3cE2(n13cE2(n1-11.p,:D
431%3%(D AD: "3(3%$I >he 4oral ConseJuences o< Economic Growth is an enormousl; ambitious boo3 that su<<ers <rom a lac3 o< ambitionD li-e the )istine ceilin1 in blac- an, white. >he o=erarching logicSA,am )mith's lo1icS is im&eccable. 7rie,man ,eser;es cre,it :or marshalin1 a hu1e Nuantit9 o: historical e;i,ence to :lesh out the case :or 1rowth. But his rigorous economic and historical scholarshi& is in the end undermined b; theoretical la)it; on the normati=e side o< the eJuation. )ome,a9 someone will write the boo3 on the moral dimensions o< economic growth.

Scholars
Im&acts# Econ Bad# En=ironment

Economic growth causes en=ironment degradation ma3ing en=ironmental regulations irrele=ant Booth .* CDou1las E.D pro:essor o: economics at .arNuette Uni;ersit9D 1$$!D Re#iew o& Social 1conom"D ?ol. !4I
$<ter a Juarter centur; o< en=ironmental regulation in this countr9 un,er the auspices o: the En;ironmental 6rotection A1enc9 an, other 1o;ernment a1enciesD signi<icant en=ironmental threats remain. Ambient standards <or ozone and other air &ollutants are <reJuentl; =iolated in urban areasH la3es and ri=ers continue to be hea=il; &ollutedH groundwater is increasingl; threatened with contaminationH ambient le=els o< to)ic chemicals in the biotic <ood chain are at high le=elsH little has been done about the &otentiall; serious &roblem o< greenhouse warmingH and biodi=ersit; is threatened as a conseJuence o< reduced and <ragmented natural habitats . +h9 has the re1ulator9 s9stem :aile, to :ull9 a,,ress our en;ironmental problemsF <he 1oal o: this paper is to su11est that the roots o: en;ironmental problemsD an, the <ailure o< en=ironmental regulationH are dee&l; embedded in the &rocesses that generate economic growth. <he lo1ic o: the ar1ument to be presente, will ta-e the :ollowin1 :orm: lon1-run economic 1rowth relies on the creation o< new industries and new <orms o< economic acti=it;R these new <orms o< economic acti=it; create new 3inds o< en=ironmental &roblemsR and new <orms o< economic acti=it; constitute =ested &olitical interests that o&&ose en=ironmental regulation. Each o: the three main sections o: the paper will pro;i,e theoretical an, empirical Eusti:ication :or each component part o: the basic ar1ument.

Scholars

Economic increase can cause a decrease in the en=ironment 5a=enswaa; .. CEileen =. ;anD .ichi1an )tate Uni;ersit9D D
https:33www.msu.e,u3course3eep32!!3relationshipHbetweenHtheHeconom9Han,HtheHen;ironment.htmD I ?ne troubling <act should be a&&arent <rom the last <ew &aragra&hs. 2hile it is true that the more de=elo&ed economic s;stem &roduces more goods and ser=ices <or more &eo&leH some o< the goods and ser=ices it &roduces are merel; substitutes <or ones that are no longer &ro=ided b; the unde=elo&ed or natural en=ironment. ConseNuentl9H the total amount and =ariet; o< goods &roduced b; the econom; do not necessaril; indicate whether &eo&le are getting more goods and more needs are being met . >he Jualit; and Juantit; o< goods that would ha=e been &roduced b; the natural en=ironmentH but are no longer being &roduced because o< the trans<ormation o< that s;stemH must be subtracted to be able to sa; whether more &eo&le are better o<<. 7or e ampleD suppose a population in a particular territor9 mo;es :rom a hunter1atherer economic s9stem to an a1rarian one. <he latter s9stem pro;i,es more :oo,D but at the e pense o: :oo, that woul, ha;e been a;ailable :or huntin1 an, 1atherin1 an9wa9. <husD some :oo, the a1rarian s9stem pro,uces simpl9 substitutes :or :oo, that woul, ha;e been a;ailable naturall9 i: the natural ecos9stem were intact. <his part o: the output o: the a1rarian s9stem shoul, not be counte, as a net 1ain :rom ha;in1 a,opte, that s9stem. 4i-ewiseD water puri:ication s9stems establishe, in an in,ustrial s9stem ma9 pro,uce the same amount o: ,rin-in1 water that woul, ha;e been a;ailable naturall9 in the hunter-1atherer s9stem. <he onl9 reason the in,ustrial s9stem has to puri:9 the water is because it has become contaminate, with sewa1eD a1ricultural runo::D an, in,ustrial wastes. <husD the water pro,uce, b9 the puri:ication s9stem is not a net 1ain o;er what woul, ha;e been a;ailable in the hunter-1atherer s9stem. <he loss o: the naturall9 a;ailable ,rin-in1 water is a cost o: the more ,e;elope, economic s9stem. $nother troubling <act a&&arent <rom
the &aragra&hs abo=e is that the more de=elo&ed econom; &roduces more goods onl; b; using and degrading more matter and energ;. ConseJuentl;H more economic de=elo&ment means more trans<ormation o< the natural en=ironmental s;stem. Is it &ossible to de=elo& the economic s;stem without harming the en=ironmentS Answerin1 this Nuestion reNuires an un,erstan,in1 o: how economic ,e;elopment occurs. 2n other wor,sD we need to understand how a &o&ulation in a gi=en territor; de=elo&s its economic s;stem so that it can &roduce and consume more goods and satis<; more needs and wants o< its &eo&le.
Economic De;elopment an, En;ironmental 2mpro;ement <he basic wa9 an econom9 ,e;elops is actuall9 ;er9 simple. *amel9D people can consume more an, better 1oo,s onl9 i: the9 pro,uce more an, better 1oo,s. <husD economic ,e;elopment reNuires either increasin1 output per wor-er Ci.e.D labor pro,ucti;it9I or e pan,in1 the resource base a;ailable to wor-ers. =utput per wor-er is increase, b9 ,e;elopin1 manu:acture, capital Ce.1.D toolsD machinesD buil,in1sD structuresD -nowle,1e an, social institutionsID creatin1 new technolo1iesD an, trainin1 people how to use the capital to pro,uce 1oo,s. <he resource base is e pan,e, b9 enlar1in1 the territor9 Ce.1.D acNuirin1 new lan,ID ,isco;erin1 more about the resource base within the e istin1 territor9 Ce.1.D e plorin1 :or minerals or ,isco;erin1 new t9pes o: matterID or tra,in1 with other territories. Un:ortunatel9D increasin1 output per wor-er an, the siJe o: the resource baseD not onl9 increases the Nuantit9 an, Nualit9 o: 1oo,s a;ailable per person. 2t also increases the amount o: matterD ener19D an, space use, b9 the economic s9stem. <his means more en;ironmental ,ama1e. 9ortunatel;H there is a wa; to address this &roblem
because it is also &ossible to increase the &roducti=it; o< energ; and matter used in the econom;. ?ne strateg; is to rec;cle resources within the economic s;stem so that :ewer ;ir1in resources must be e tracte, :rom the en;ironment an, :ewer ,e1ra,e, materials are ,ischar1e, into the en;ironment. $ second strateg; called dematerialization is to in=ent new technologies which use and degrade less matter and energ; . $ third wa; to increase natural resource &roducti=it; is to in=ent technologies that utilize less &olluting resources. <his strate19 is
-nown as material substitution. A :ourth strate19 -nown as waste minin1 in;ol;es :in,in1 new uses :or waste materials. 2ncreasin1 natural resource pro,ucti;it9 reNuires in;estments similar to those :or increasin1 labor pro,ucti;it9. *ew t9pes o: capital an, labor must be ,e;elope,. 1ew s;stems must be de=ised to collect and &rocess used materials. 2a;s o< using these
rec;cled materials to &roduce goods must also be <ound. Energ;#e<<icient methods <or rec;cling and &roducing goods must be de=elo&ed. *ew materials an, pro,uction technolo1ies must be :oun,. *ew wa9s o: locatin1 an,
sitin1 pro,uction :acilities also nee, to be ,e;elope,. <he -e9 to achie;in1 economic ,e;elopment while protectin1 the en;ironment is impro;in1 both labor an, natural resource pro,ucti;it9. /ut man9 people belie;e there is another -e9 as wellD an, that is limitin1 population siJe. I< &o&ulation increasesH total out&ut o< goods and ser=ices must increase or &er ca&ita
consum&tion must <all. But increasing out&ut means more energ; and matter must be e)tracted <rom the en=ironment. Im&ro=ements in natural resource &roducti=it; ma; slow the rate o< e)traction o=er timeH but ine=itabl; more &eo&le means more e)traction. >his course <ocuses on de=elo&ing &roducti=it; gainsH not &o&ulation control.

Economic Growth Destro;s the En=ironment

Scholars
-' Econ Growth Good/Bad
1orth * C6eterD en1ineer an, with Nuali:ications in economics an, accountanc9 D

http:33www.paci:icecolo1ist.or13archi;e31rowthen;i.html I E< +here are we ecolo1icall9 spea-in1F 2n this ,ebateD :or the most part the economists hol, swa9. )ome 1o;ernments are more acti;e than others in a,,ressin1 loomin1 problems o: en;ironmental ,e1ra,ation an, resource shorta1es. /ut this has ma,e little ,i::erence to the economic policies that rule the worl, . ?n the economic <rontH almost all nations &ursue economic growth as their number one obLecti=e. Growth &olicies that increase consum&tion o< the worldGs resources are encouragedH the en=ironment continues to degrade and the global &o&ulation continues to grow at about -0 million &er annum. >here are man; wa;s to loo3 at the Juestion o< manGs im&act on the &lanet. ?ne o< the most common is the ecological I<oot&rint.K 7or the purpose o: the ecolo1ical ,ebateH the I<oot&rintI o< a countr; is de<ined as the area o< land needed to su&&ort the a=erage indi=idual o< that countr;. .an9 stu,ies ha;e been publishe, on the subEect o: :ootprints. A 1.., stud; b; the Earth Council <ound the world was using u& its renewable resources at a rate o< about 2.' hectares &er world citizenH whereas the s&ace a=ailable was around 1., hectares &er world citizen. 7rom thisH the Earth Council stud; concluded the earth was running a '*E Iecological de<icitI at that time # meanin1 the sustainable limits o: the earth ha, alrea,9 been e cee,e,. )tu,ies b9 bo,ies such as the U.*. an, AustraliaLs C)20= reache, similar conclusions. <he Earth Council report stu,ie, !2 countries with about #%R o: total 1lobal population. It <ound countries using u& their resources unsustainabl; were s&read <airl; indiscriminatel; across rich and &oor countries ali3e. >he countr; with the highest im&act on its en=ironmentH was the !S$ C1$$" population 2(#mID with a consumption :ootprint o: 1%.3 ha per capita an, a capacit9 o: (." ha per capita - in,icatin1 an ecolo1ical ,e:icit o: 3.( ha per capita. At the bottom o: table was /an1la,eshD with %.!ha per capita consumptionD %.3 ha per capita an, a ,e:icit o: %.2ha per capita. ?nl; 20E o< the countries studied - all 1eo1raphicall9 lar1e countries with low-population ,ensit9 - were li=ing sustainabl;.

Scholars
-( Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Bad# Climate Change

Economic growth <uels climate change# root cause Godha=en . C.erric-D sta:: writerD 0r anic Consumers assocociationD
http:33www.or1anicconsumers.or13articles3articleH1#!#3.c:m D ".1!.1%I E< >echnolog; is &art o< the solution to climate change. /ut onl; &art. <echno-:i es li-e some o: those in the Guar,ianLs .anchester 0eport simpl9 cannot ,eli;er the carbon cuts science ,eman,s o: us without bein1 accompanie, b9 ,rastic re,uctions in our consumption. <hat means radical economic and social trans<ormation. 4erel; swa&&ing technologies <ails to address the root causes o< climate change. 2e need to choose the solutions that are the chea&estH the swi<testH the most e<<ecti=e and least li3el; to incur dire side e<<ects. =n all countsD thereGs a sim&le answer # sto& burning the stu<< in the <irst &lace . Consume less. >here is a certain le=el o< resources we need to sur=i=eH an, be9on, that there is a le;el we nee, in or,er to ha;e li;es that are com:ortable an, meanin1:ul. 2t is <ar below what we &resentl; consume . Americans consume twice as much oil as Europeans. Are the9 twice as happ9F Are Europeans hal: as :reeF Economic growth itsel< is not a measure o< human well#beingH it onl; measures things with an assessed monetar; =alue. 2t ;alues wants at the same le;el as nee,s an,D while it purports to brin1 prosperit9 to the massesD its ten,enc9 to concentrate pro:it in :ewer an, :ewer han,s lea;es billions without the necessities o: a ,ecent li:e. <echno-:i ation mas-s the incompatibilit9 o: sol;in1 climate chan1e with unlimite, economic 1rowth. E=en i< energ; consum&tion can be reduced <or an acti=it;H ongoing economic growth eats u& the im&ro=ement and o=erall energ; consum&tion still rises. +e continue ,estructi;e consumption in the e pectation that new miracle technolo1ies will come an, sa;e us.
$ndH continued accelerated climate change will annihilate humanit; >ic3el C=li;erD D Climate 0esearcher. <he Gaur,ianD #-11-2%%# TQD http:33www.1uar,ian.co.u-3commentis:ree32%%#3au13113climatechan1eI E< +e nee, to 1et prepare, :or :our ,e1rees o: 1lobal warmin1D /ob +atson tol, the Guar,ian last wee-. At :irst si1ht this loo-s li-e wise counsel :rom the climate science a,;iser to De:ra. /ut the idea that we could ada&t to a (C rise is absurd and dangerous. Global warming on this scale would be a catastrophe that woul, meanD in the immortal wor,s that Chie: )eattle probabl9 ne;er spo-eD Kthe end o< li=ing an, the be1innin1 o: sur;i;alK <or human3ind. =r perhaps the be1innin1 o: our e)tinction. >he colla&se o< the &olar ice ca&s would become ine=itableH bringing long#term sea le=el rises o< ,0#-0 metres. $ll the worldGs coastal &lains would be lostD complete with portsD citiesD transport an, in,ustrial in:rastructureD and much o< the worldGs most &roducti=e <armland. <he worl,Ls 1eo1raph9 woul, be trans:orme, much as it was at the en, o: the last ice a1eD when sea le;els rose b9 about 12% metres to create the ChannelD the *orth )ea an, Car,i1an /a9 out o: ,r9 lan,. +eather woul, become e treme an, unpre,ictableD with more :reNuent an, se;ere ,rou1htsD :loo,s an, hurricanes. >he EarthGs carr;ing ca&acit; would be hugel; reduced. Billions would undoubtedl; die. +atsonLs call was supporte, b9 the 1o;ernmentLs :ormer chie: scienti:ic a,;iserD )ir Da;i, 8in1D who warne, that Ki: we 1et to a :our-,e1ree rise it is Nuite possible that we woul, be1in to see a runawa9 increaseK. <his is a remar-able un,erstatement. >he climate s;stem is alread; e)&eriencing signi<icant <eedbac3sD notabl9 the summer meltin1 o: the Arctic sea ice. >he more the ice meltsH the more sunshine is absorbed b; the seaH and the more the $rctic warms. $nd as the $rctic warmsH the release o< billions o< tonnes o< methane A a 1reenhouse 1as "% times stron1er than carbon ,io i,e o;er 2% 9ears A capture, un,er meltin1 perma:rost is alread; under wa;. <o see how :ar this process coul, 1oD loo- !!.!m 9ears to the 6alaeocene-Eocene >hermal 4a)imumD when a 1lobal temperature increase o: (C coinci,e, with the release o: about !D%%% 1i1atonnes o: carbon into the atmosphereD both as C=2 an, as methane :rom bo1s an, seabe, se,iments. 4ush subtropical :orests 1rew in polar re1ionsD an, sea le;els rose to 1%%m hi1her than to,a9. 2t appears that an initial warmin1 pulse tri11ere, other warmin1 processes. .an9 scientists warn that this historical e;ent ma; be analogous to the &resent: the warming caused b; human emissions coul, propel us towar,s a similar hothouse Earth.

Scholars
-* Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Bad# ?=er&o&ulation

Economic growth bad C o=er&o&ulation @ic3erson */( C&erem9D )tatesman &ournalD Economic 1rowth mi1ht be ba,D as wellD !343%$D AD: "3(3%$ ne isI
2 coul,nLt a1ree more with the April 2$ letter :rom Da;i, EllisD K6opulation 1rowth mi1ht be ba,.K 2 su11est IEconomic growth might be bad.I 2n both casesD it de&ends on where ;ouGre at in the s&ectrum o< the &h;sical limits o< ;our en=ironment. 9or the &o&ulation issueH e)&erts concluded in the 1.,0s that we were nearing our &lanetGs &o&ulation limit Csee the 1$"2 K<he 4imits to GrowthK report to the Club o: 0omeI. <he i,ea that economic 1rowth mi1ht not be ,esirable is Eust an e tension o: the population 1rowth ,iscussion. Continual economic growth de&ends on a growing &o&ulation to su&&l; more labor and more consumers. 6i3ewiseH a continuall; growing &o&ulation de&ends on economic growth to &ro=ide Lobs. ?=er&o&ulation im&lies economic growth is no longer goodD thou1h it remains a necessit9 :or some o: the un,e;elope, worl,. )o i: we canLt ha;e an econom9 base, on continual 1rowthD what shoul, we ,oF C)ee /ill .c8ibbenLs KDeep Econom9.KI 2e must onl; manu<acture what we need and end mar3eting &lo;s aimed at getting &eo&le to bu; new gadgetsR dismantling the econom; we ha=e 3nown and beginning a totall; di<<erent wa; o< li<e. >his canGt be accom&lished solel; b; the <ree mar3et.
5ich countries consume more than &oor countries 5am&hal ., C)ir )hri,athD 1! 9ears )ecretar9-General o: the CommonwealthD is Co-Chairman o: the
Commission on Global Go;ernanceD an, author o: =ur Countr9D <he 6lanetD written :or the Earth )ummitD *ow the rich must a,EustD http:33www.unep.or13ourplanet3im1;ersn3$13ramphal.htmlD &une 1$$"D AD: "3(3%$I So <ar in the global discussion o< our en=ironmental &redicamentH the tendenc; has been to &ut the <ocus on human numbersH on &o&ulation growthH as the crucial source o< en=ironmental stress. 8o&ulation is undoubtedl; &art o< the &ictureH and the de=elo&ing worldH where the growth in numbers is &redominantl; ta3ing &laceH must hold its growth down. /ut it is through consum&tion that &eo&le im&act on the en=ironmentH and because &eo&le in industrial countries consume much more &er headH the one#Juarter o< the world &o&ulation li=ing in them &resses <ar more hea=il; on the en=ironment than the &oorer three#Juarters who li=e in the de=elo&ing world. 7i;e 9ears a:ter 0ioD we need a wider acce&tance that how much we consume # and there<ore how aggressi=el;H and o<ten unthin3ingl;H we go <or growth # is critical to our common <uture on this &lanet.
5ich countries consume more and allow &oor countries to bandwagon /hunLhunwala '/'1 C/haratD /achelorLs De1ree in )cience C6h9sicsD Chemistr9 an, .athematicsI :rom 8anpur
Uni;ersit9 an, ,octorate in 7oo, an, 0esource Economics :rom Uni;ersit9 o: 7lori,a an, Assistant 6ro:essor o: Economics at the 2n,ian 2nstitute o: .ana1ementD /an1aloreD 4et the poor su::er moreD http:33www.e pressbuJJ.com3e,ition3stor9.asp FtitleG4etR2%theR2%poorR2%su::er R2%more@arti,Gtr1MhNNB09%G@t9peGD 33313%$D AD: "3(3%$I >he de=elo&ment o< countries <ollows this &attern too. $gainH there are two models. ?ne is that a high rate o< growth in rich countries o&ens mar3ets <or the goods o< &oor countries and &ulls them out o< &o=ert;. <he secon, mo,el is o: in,epen,ent ,e;elopment o: scores o: poor countries. <he secon, mo,el alone ,eli;ers true ,e;elopment. >went; &er cent o< the world0s &eo&le li=ing in the rich countries consume -0 &er cent o< the world0s resources. I< the; reduce consum&tion more resources are a=ailable <or the &oor. A re,uction in
1rowth o: the richD as is happenin1 in the present recessionD will open up opportunities :or poor countries but the +orl, /an- ,oes not li-e this.

Scholars
-+ Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Bad# 9amine

Economic growth ensures <amine through resource de&letionVthis will s&ar3 global resource wars. 4ilbrath -. C4esterD 6ro:essor Emeritus o: 6olitical science an, )ociolo19 at )U*B-/u::aloD En;isionin1 a
)ustainable )ociet9D pp. 343-344D AD: "-(-$I /4 <r9in1 to sol;e our neste, set o: ecolo1ical3economic problems onl9 with technolo1ical :i es is li-e treatin1 an or1anic :ailure with a ban,a1e. <he -e9 ,i::icultiesD which will be i1nore, b9 that strate19 are that biospheric s9stems will chan1e their patterns an, there will be an increasin1 sNueeJe on resources. $s 1lobal human population continues to 1rowD an, these new &eo&le demand economic growth to <ul<ill their needsH there will be unbearable &ressure <or resources. Soils will be de&leted. 9armland will be gobbled u& into urban settlements. +ater will become scarceD more pollute,D an, ;er9 hi1h price,. 7orests will be ,eplete, :aster than the9 can re1enerate. +il,erness will nearl9 ,isappear. <he most easil9 e tracte, mineral ,eposits will be e hauste,. +e will search the :ar corners o: the 1lobeD at ;er9 hi1h economic an, en;ironmental costD :or more minerals an, possible substitutes :or those that are bein1 ,eplete,. 7ossil :uelsD especiall9 petroleumD will constantl9 ,iminish in suppl9 an, rise in price. +orst o: allD biospheric s9stems will react to our inter:erence b9 no lon1er wor-in1 the wa9 we ha;e counte, on. International com&etition <or scarce mineral and <uel resources could become intense and blood;. <he hi1hl9 ,e;elope, nations are li-el9 to tr9 usin1 their mone9 an,3or militar9 power to 1arner the bul- o: the resources :or their own use. C2t is ,i::icult to ima1ine that a bi1 power woul, allow its suppl9 o: critical :uels or minerals to be cut o:: without puttin1 up a :i1ht.I At bestD those actions will onl9 postpone the ine;itable a,Eustment. >he &oorest nations Cusuall9 those with the ,ensest populationsI will be unable to maintain e=en subsistence le=elsV the; are li3el; to su<<er wides&read <amine an, ,isease. All o: this :rantic acti;it9 will ha;e ,e;astatin1 impacts on the ecosphere. Climate chan1e will ,ebilitate e;er9 ecos9stem an, econom9. !ltra=iolet radiation will increaseH as will acid rain and to)ic &oisoning o< our airH soilH and water. In additionH we can e)&ect more and more soil de&letionH loss o< cro& lan,D mismana1ement o: water resourcesD oil spillsD ,e;astatin1 acci,ents C/hopalD Chernob9lID ,e:orestationD sprea,in1 ,esertsD e tinction o: speciesD loss o: wil,li:eD an, air an, water pollution. +ith ,isrupte, biospheric s9stems an, se;ere resource shorta1esD 2 cannot ima1ine that it will be possible to sustain 1rowth in material throu1hput. +e ma9 be able to 1row in nonmaterial wa9s Cincreasin1 -nowle,1eD artistic outputD 1amesD an, so :orthID but material 1rowth cannot continue. =ur en,ea;or not to chan1e will ha;e :aile, to :orestall chan1eU instea,D we will become ;ictims o: chan1e.

Scholars
-, Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Bad# @ealth

Growth bad C health El3ins ( C&ulesD Department o: A1ricultural an, Consumer Economics an, Uni;ersit9 o: 2llinois at UrbanaChampai1nD 2s Economic Growth /a, :or Bour >ealthFD http:33paa2%%!.princeton.e,u3,ownloa,.asp F submission2,G!%"%(D $3223%4D AD: "3(3%$I >he t;&e o< industrialization underwa; in toda;0s de=elo&ing countries &ro=ides a &oignant e)am&le o< the &ernicious side o< economic growth. It is a &rocess mar3ed b; ra&id urbanizationH crowdingH &oor access to clean waterH and high le=els o< industrial &ollution. <he a,;erse health conseNuences o: these b9-pro,ucts o: in,ustrial 1rowth ha;e pro;en ,i::icult to accuratel9 measureD since in,ustrialiJation also has positi;e e::ectsD the most salient o: which lie in risin1 incomes. .oreo;erD there is little a;ailable ,ata :rom ,e;elopin1 countries to anal9Je this relationship. /ut it is an important relationshipD 1i;en the rapi, pace o: in,ustrialiJation in man9 ,e;elopin1 countries o;er the last se;eral ,eca,es. <his stu,9 emplo9s a purpose-built ,ataset rich in healthD socioeconomic an, manu:acturin1 ,ata that allows us to circum;ent the lac- o: cre,ible pollution ,ataD b9 lin-in1 pollution to health outcomes ;ia in,ustrial acti;it9 in a rapi,l9 in,ustrialiJin1 ,e;elopin1 countr9D 2n,onesia. <he research ,esi1n buil,s upon wor- usin1 [natural e periments' to circum;ent problems in i,enti:ication ,ue to omitte, ;ariables. In the case o< health and &ollutionH the omitted =ariables &roblem arises because &ollution is not randomH and so it has &ro=en di<<icult to control <or all the =ariables that ma; im&act health other than &ollutionH but that incidentall; accom&an; &ollution. <he natural e periment this paper e ploits is the 2n,onesian :inancial crisis in 1$$"-$#D which cause, lar1e re,uctions in manu:acturin1 an, pollution in some areas o: the countr9 an, little chan1e in others. A plausible presumption is that the omitte, ;ariables problem is ,rasticall9 re,uce, when the research ,esi1n is base, on comparisons o: chan1es across ,istricts ,urin1 a short time o: rapi, chan1e. 5esults <rom the Juasi#e)&erimental design show that the change in incidence o< all res&irator; &roblemsH coughingH and breathing di<<icult; was &ositi=el; correlated with the sub#district0s change in &ollutionH and was signi<icant at the one percent le;el. =ther health problemsD inclu,in1 :e;erD hea,acheD :luD acci,entsD mortalit9D ,isruptions o: ,ail9 acti;itiesD ,octor ;isitsD an, me,ication were insi1ni:icant or ne1ati;eD e cept :or the chan1e in inci,ence o: ,iarrhea Csi1ni:icant at 1 percentI an, o;erall poor health Cbarel9 si1ni:icant at ! percentD tG2.%!I. 0esults :rom the Nuasi-e perimental ,esi1n ten, to be insensiti;e to the inclusion o: a wi,e ;ariet9 o: controlsD which pro;i,es an in,irect measure o: the ;ali,it9 o: the main assumption o: this stu,9 ,esi1n A that the treatment is close to ran,oml9 assi1ne,.
Globalization causes disease# e)tinction 1eubauer * CDeaneD !31#D http:33www.international.ucla.e,u3a:rica31rca3publications3article.aspF

parenti,G1%"42%I E< Contem&orar; globalization is re&roducing the classic conditions historicall; associated with the emergence o< in<ectious diseases and the &eriodicall; recurring &attern o< e&idemics and &andemics. <his chapter e plores the current relationshi& o< ra&id globalization with emergent in<ectious disease and lin3s it to other globalization elements that both de<ine and im&inge on the generalized notion o< Mhealth in<rastructure.O <he ,9namics o: contemporar9 globalization are contributing to =arious institutional ga&s that ma3e dealing with in<ectious disease increasingl; di<<icult and threaten concentrated human &o&ulations with &otential calamit; . >istoricall9D the classic conditions associated with e&idemics include ra&id increases and migration o< &o&ulationsH crowded urban conditions that concentrate the &oorH wea3 regulator; structures that inhibit e<<ecti=e inter=entionH climate changes associated with higher tem&eraturesH and dislocation o< traditional boundaries between microbial and human &o&ulations. C.c*eillD 1$"(I ?er9 rapi, urbaniJation an, its persistent association with increase, po;ert9 act to repro,uce man9 o: these con,itions. +hat 8o:i Annan has calle, Tthe urbaniJation o: po;ert9Q W1X results :rom the pattern o: 1rowth without ,e;elopment that 7antu Cheru situates at the core o: the comple o: e;ents in which increasin1 numbers o: the worl,'s poor :in, themsel;es . Growth without de=elo&ment leads to a wea3 state in which M&ublic healthO broadl; de<ined struggles to gain an e<<ecti=e institution <oothold.

Scholars
-Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Bad# $2% @ealth

Economic Growth doesn0t sol=e disease Szreter ., C)imonD http:33www.Estor.or13stable3213"3""I
?=er the 6ong >erm the &rocesses o< rea&id economic growth seem to be strongl; correlated with im&ro=ements in the &ros&erit; and health o< a societ;. @ence deri=es the common&lace notion that economic growth results in de=elo&ment. <his essa9 ar1ues thatD contrar; to this widel; held o&inionH economic growth entails critical challenges and threats to the health and wel<are o< the &o&ulations in=ol=ed and does notH there<oreH necessaril; &roduce de=elo&ment. Since the 1.(00s economic and demogra&hic historiansD social scientistsD an, polic9ma-ers ha;e broa,l9 accepte, that each national traEector9 o: sustaine, economic 1rowth has alwa;s been attended b; a Mdemogra&hic transitionHO a &rocess in which a &ronounced <all in national mortalit; le=els Can, also :ertilit9 le;elsI occurs as a result o< the gains to national wealth. In <act the idea o< a demogra&hic transitionH both as a theor; and as a general historical modelH has been subLected both to <undamental conce&tual criticism and to em&irical re<utation. Im&ortant counter#e)am&les ha=e been unco=eredH such as historic 9rance with its <ertilit; decline occurring be<ore either ra&id economic growth or mortalit; declineH and contem&orar; states such as :eralaH Costa 5icaH Sri 6an3aH and china. .

Scholars
-. Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Bad# 8o=ert;

Growth increases &o=ert; and hurts health /acobs and 8odobn; , C2A an, .<D Uni;ersal Corporation: Alpha an, /eta Di;ision CAustraliaI an,
Australian 0e, Cross: /loo, )er;iceD AustraliaD Uni;ersit9 o: )outh AustraliaD AustraliaD Do all bene:it :rom economic 1rowthFD http:33iEe.o :or,Eournals.or13c1i3content3:ull33(3234"%D 33213%"D AD: "3(3%$I &C +hilstD economic 1rowth has the potential to re,uce po;ert9D histor9 records that not all $merican citizens ha=e necessaril; bene<ited <rom Xeconomic growth reducing &o=ert; b; the ele=ation o< real incomes'.2% Bates ha, i,enti:ie, that <or $merican wor3ing class &ersonsD real hourl9 wages were lower in the 1$$%s than in 1$"%s2! an, that between 1$"" and 1$$% the real <amil; income <ell <or the &oorest +0E o< all <amilies but increased b; a third <or the wealthiest 20E o< <amilies .2( <hese :i1ures are more recentl9 supporte, b9 Doole9 an, 6rause who re;eal that American males in the 2!th percentile earne, less in real terms in 1$$" Ca 9ear o: suppose,l9 [1oo,' economic timesI than their 2!th percentile peers ,i, in 1$(" Cp. 3I.2" <o :urther illustrate that emplo9ment nee, not contribute to po;ert9 re,uction :or all members o: societ9D thereb9 better health :or allD 7i1ure 1 illustrates the annual income o: a :ull-time wor-er in AmericaD sin1le with two Nuali:9in1 chil,renD wor-in1 at minimum wa1es an, receipt o: Earne, 2ncome <a Cre,it CE2<CI :rom 1$"% till 2%%4.2# 7rom this 1raph it is e;i,ent that although wor3ing on a <ull#time basisH such <amilies ha=e not been able to maintain li=ing abo=e the &o=ert; le=elD e;en a:ter recei;in1 the E2<C. >his rein<orces <indings b9 others2"D2$ that not all indi=iduals in societies necessaril; bene<it <rom economic de=elo&mentH hence not all are able to bene<it <rom Xeconomic status im&ro=ement0 as a result o< Po<<icialF economic growthH conseJuentl; such sub&o&ulations would not e)&erience better health Clower morbi,it9 an, mortalit9 ratesI as implie, b9 /renner Cp. 121!I.2% Gi;en that not all members o: societ9 necessaril9 bene:it :rom economic 1rowthD it is not surprisin1 that there is widening in li<e e)&ectanc; between socioeconomic 1roups in U)D3%D31 which reconciles the ;ast literature on socioeconomic status23D32D33 an, supports +il-insonLs34 obser;ation that [amon1 the rich ,e;elope, countriesD health is in,ee, relate, to relati;e rather than absolute incomeD an, thatD as a conseNuenceD health ma9 not be stron1l9 relate, to economic 1rowth' Cp. 2!"I. As a result o: such en;ironmental :actors operatin1 in most western countriesD an, 1i;en that ina,eNuatel9 emplo9e, wor-ers ma9 re:lect similar health outcomes as the unemplo9e,D3! :uture health-econom9 research shoul, consi,er utiliJin1 more comprehensi;e labour mar-et measures.

Scholars
.0 Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Bad# $2% 8o=ert;

$lternate causalities to &o=ert; 9ane and 2arr 2 CGero1e an, 6eterD Australian *ational Uni;ersit9D >ow Economic Growth 0e,uces 6o;ert9D
http:33www.ciaonet.or13wps3wap%23wap%2.p,:D +2DE0D Discussion 6aper *o. 2%%231$D 7eb 2%%2D AD: "3(3%$I >he results and methodolog; re&orted here suggest that large o=ersim&li<ications are in=ol=ed in relating &o=ert; reduction directl; to GD8 growthH without distinguishing among di<<erent &ossible sources o< growth. Contrar; to the im&licit assum&tions o< man; commentatorsH the &oor do much better i< a gi=en amount o< GD8 growth is &roduced b; technical &rogress in ser=icesH or manu<acturingH than i< it is due to technical &rogress in agriculture. Althou1h more wor- nee,s to be ,one to impro;e on the parameter ;alues assume, in this stu,9D these Nualitati;e results are robust with respect to wi,e ;ariations in assumptions about elasticities o: substitution amon1 1oo,s an, :actors. >he results also im&l; that growth in broad sectorsVagricultureH manu<acturingH ser=icesH etc.Vwill be associated with =er; di<<erent e<<ects on &o=ert; and ineJualit; de&ending on whether the e)ogenous shoc3s a<<ect demand or su&&l;. 7or e ampleD an increase in the suppl9 o: :actors use, intensi;el9 in a1riculture ,epresses the real returns to these :actors while raisin1 a1ricultural outputU whereas an increase in ,eman, :or a1ricultural pro,uctsD perhaps ,ue to polic9 chan1esD woul, raise both a1ricultural output an, the real returns to the :actors use, intensi;el9 in a1riculture.
Growth is not the onl; <actor to &o=ert; 4adan 2 CAnishaD 7inancial anal9st :or GE an, ./A at 8ello11 )choolD *orthwestern Uni;ersit9D <he
0elationship between Economic 7ree,om an, )ocio A Economic De;elopmentD http:33www.econ.ilstu.e,u3uauEe36D7Ls3Carrol0oun,3ma,anpost.p,:D UAU&ED p1 #-1%D 2%%2D AD: "3(3%$I >here is a =ast amount o< literature and studies &er<ormed that show that economic growth is not the end#all and be#all o< economic de=elo&ment. 9ocus needs to be on social indicators that de&ict the Jualit; o< li<e o< &eo&le. <he /asic *ee,s approach to ,e;elopment :ormulate, b9 6aul )treeten attempts to pro;i,e opportunities :or the :ull ph9sicalD mentalD an, social ,e;elopment o: the human personalit9 an, then ,eri;es wa9s o: meetin1 this obEecti;e. <he emphasis is on en,s rather than means an, non-material nee,s are reco1niJe,. C)treetenD 1$#1I. <husD mere economic growth rates cannot be a &ro); <or the Jualit; o< li<e and cannot indicate that basic needs are met. <his is e plaine, as :ollows: C1I <he income or economic 1rowth approach to measurin1 human pro1ress ,eals onl9 with the Nuantit9 o: pro,ucts but not with the appropriateness o: those 1oo,s an, ser;ices. C2I )ome basic nee,s can onl9 be satis:ie,D or more e::ecti;el9 satis:ie, throu1h public ser;ices Ce,ucationD waterD an, sanitationID throu1h subsi,iJe, 1oo,s an, ser;icesD or throu1h trans:er pa9ments. C3I ConsumersD both poor an, rich are not alwa9s e::icient in optimiJin1 nutrition an, health. A,,itional income can be spent on :oo,s with lower nutritional ;alue lea,in1 to a ,ecrease in health. C4I <he manner in which a,,itional income is earne, ma9 a::ect the Nualit9 o: li:e a,;ersel9. Com&ared to othersH certain &roduction choices can increase income more but ha=e a greater negati=e im&act on human and en=ironmental well being. =ne e ample o: this is :emale emplo9ment. Althou1h the motherLs income can riseD breast-:ee,in1 ma9 re,uceD which ,ecreases the nutrition o: babies. C!I Increased income does not guarantee a reduction in the mal#distribution o< wealth within societ; or households. <here:oreD the Basic 1eeds $&&roach shows that the economic growth a&&roach neglects the im&ortance o< non#material needs and ignores the signi<icance o< socio# economic de=elo&ment.

Scholars
Im&acts# Econ Bad# Structural Aiolence

Growth leads to structural =iolence that outweighs nuclear war $bu#/amal .- C.umiaD acti;istD $-1$D http:33www.:lashpoints.net3mQuietDea,l9?iolence.htmlI
2e li=eD eNuall9 immerse,D an, to a ,eeper ,e1reeD in a nation that condones an, i1nores wi,e-ran1in1 IstructuralG =iolenceD o: a -in, that ,estro9s human li:e with a breathta-in1 ruthlessness. 7ormer .assachusetts prison o::icial an, writerD Dr. &ames Gilli1an obser;esU /9 Kstructural ;iolenceK 2 mean the increase, rates o: ,eath an, ,isabilit9 su::ere, b9 those who occup9 the bottom run1s o: societ9D as contraste, b9 those who are abo;e them. >hose e)cess deaths Cor at least a ,emonstrabl9 lar1e proportion o: themI are a :unction o: the class structureU an, that structure is itsel: a &roduct o< societ9Ls collecti;e human choicesH concerning how to distribute the collecti;e wealth o: the societ9. <hese are not acts o: Go,. 2 am contrastin1 KstructuralK with Kbeha;ioral ;iolenceK b9 which 2 mean the non-natural ,eaths an, inEuries that are cause, b9 speci:ic beha;ioral actions o: in,i;i,uals a1ainst in,i;i,ualsD such as the ,eaths we attribute to homici,eD suici,eD sol,iers in war:areD capital punishmentD an, so on. --CGilli1anD &.D .DD ?iolence: 0e:lections =n a *ational Epi,emic C*ew Bor-: ?inta1eD 1$$(ID 1$2.I >his <orm o< =iolenceD not co;ere, b9 an9 o: the maEoritarianD corporateD rulin1-class protecte, me,iaD is in=isible to us and because o: its in;isibilit9D all the more insidious. >ow ,an1erous is it--reall9F Gilli1an notes: WEX;er9 :i:teen 9earsD on the a;era1eD as man9 people ,ie because o: relati;e po;ert9 as woul, be -ille, in a nuclear war that cause, 232 million ,eathsU an, e;er9 sin1le 9earD two to three times as man9 people ,ie :rom po;ert9 throu1hout the worl, as were -ille, b9 the *aJi 1enoci,e o: the &ews o;er a si -9ear perio,. <his isD in e::ectD the eNui;alent o: an on1oin1D unen,in1D in :act acceleratin1D thermonuclear warD or 1enoci,e on the wea- an, poor e;er9 9ear o: e;er9 ,eca,eD throu1hout the worl,.

Scholars
Im&acts# Econ Bad# China# !S @eg

Chinese economic growth endangers !S heg ?GConnell + C.e1hanD 0esearch Associate at the 0u,, Center :or 7oo, 6olic9 an, =besit9 at Bale Uni;ersit9D
TChina <hreatens <o 0i;al American 6ower )tatusDQ Unite, 6ress 2nternationalD &une 22D http:33www.spacewar.com3reports3ChinaH<hreatensH<oH0i;alHAmericanH6owerH)tatus.htmlD AD: "-(-$I E< /ut the ga& between $mericaGs dominance and ChinaGs &ower seems to be lessening . <he ,ebate is no lon1er
about whether China has the militar9 stren1th to pose a threatD but what to ,o about itD sai, Daniel /lumenthalD commissioner o: the U.).-China Economic an, )ecurit9 0e;iew Commission. KChina is &robabl; the onl; countr; in the world that can com&ete with the !nited States militaril; and actuall; &ose a challenge to its hegemon; DK /lumenthal sai,D pointin1 to what he calle, a serious peacetime militar9 buil,up b9 China o;er the last 1% 9ears. <he Unite, )tates has been shorin1 up its alliances aroun, the re1ionD he continue,D with countries such as &apanD 2n,iaD ?ietnam an, .on1olia all concerne, about what ChinaLs militar9 rise means. /ecause o: the nationLs militar9 e pansionD inter;ention shoul, China attac- <aiwan can no lon1er be accomplishe, at a low costD sai, 0an,all )chri;erD :ormer ,eput9 assistant secretar9 o: state :or East Asian an, 6aci:ic a::airs. An, thou1h China has been bul-in1 up its militar9 presence alon1 bor,ers near <aiwanD )chri;er sai, that the nationLs ;ision e ten,s :ar be9on, the small islan, to re1ional an, 1lobal contin1encies. K<he 1ame is on in AsiaD an, the Unite, )tates has to be en1a1e,DK )chri;er sai,D emphasiJin1 the 1rowin1 1lobal importance o: Asia. Accor,in1 to the *ational 2ntelli1ence CouncilD )chri;er sai,D b9 2%2%D Asia will hol, !( percent o: the worl,Ls populationD si o: the 1% lar1est militariesD three o: the :our lar1est economiesD an, si o: the 1% lar1est ener19 consumers. /9 contrastD )chri;er a,,e,D the *2C e pects the population o: the .i,,le East to compose onl9 4 percent o: the worl,Ls total in 2%2%. K>he whole center o< gra=it; o< the earth and human e)istence is mo=ing to $siaDK )chri;er sai,D e plainin1 that the Unite, )tates nee,s a polic9 that will ,e;elop relations with the rest o: Asia while con:rontin1 China. Bou 1et Asia ri1ht b9 1ettin1 China ri1ht an, 9ou 1et China ri1ht b9 1ettin1 Asia ri1htD )chri;er sai,. Bet in an a1e o: 1lobaliJationD an9 mo;es b9 China or the Unite, )tates woul, ha;e 1ran, in:luence in areas be9on, the militar9. K Economic setbac3s and crises o< con<idence could slow ChinaGs emergence as a <ull#scale great &ower DK the *ational 2ntelli1ence Council wrote in its 2%2% 6roEect report on 1lobal tren,s :or the :uture. K BeiLingGs <ailure to maintain its economic growth would itsel< ha=e a global im&act .K
!.S. hegemon; &re=ents nuclear war :halilizad .* PQalma; :halilizadH director o< the Strateg; and Doctrine 8rogram Y 5$1D B <ormer !S $mbassador to $<ghanistanF I6osing the 4omentS >he !nited States and the 2orld $<ter the Cold 2arHI 2ashington "uarterl;H S&ringH 8roJuestH $D% ,#,#0. CS
Un,er the thir, optionD the Unite, )tates woul, see- to retain 1lobal lea,ership an, to preclu,e the rise o: a 1lobal ri;al or a return to multipolarit9 :or the in,e:inite :uture. =n balanceD this is the best lon1-term 1ui,in1 principle an, ;ision. )uch a ;ision is ,esirable not as an en, in itsel:D but because a world in which the !nited States e)ercises leadershi& woul, ha;e tremen,ous a,;anta1es. 7irstD the 1lobal en;ironment woul, be more open an, more recepti;e to American ;alues S un,erstoo, as ,emocrac9D :ree mar-etsD an, the rule o: law. )econ,D such a worl, would ha=e a better chance o< dealing cooperati;el9 with the worl,Ls maEor problemsD such as nuclear &roli<erationD threats o: regional hegemon; b; renegade statesH and low#le=el con<licts. 7inall9D !.S. leadershi& would hel& &reclude the rise o< another hostile global ri=alH enabling the Unite, )tates an, the world to a=oid another global col, or hot war and all the atten,ant ,an1ersD inclu,in1 a global
nuclear e)change. !.S. leadershi& would there<ore be more conduci=e to global stabilit; than a bi&olar or a multi&olar balance o< &ower s;stem.

Scholars
.' Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Bad# China# !S @eg

Chinese growth destro;s !S heg Stra3a .D C<oniD 2*DE6E*DE*< Certi:ie, 7inancial Anal9stID <he 6ru,ent 2n;estorD &une 3%D
http:33www.nuwirein;estor.com3blo1s3in;estorcentric32%%$3%(3chinas-economic-strate19-to-become.html China is ta3ing ad=antage o< the global recession to &osition themsel=es to e=entuall; become the worldGs number 1 su&er&ower. >he; are lending out massi=e amounts o< mone; to countries li3e the !SH and stoc3&iling gold in order to &re&are <or the &ossible <all o< the dollar. <on9 )tra-a :rom <he 6ru,ent
2n;estor e plains ChinaLs economic strate19 an, wh9 we shoul, all be watchin1 ;er9 closel9. )hoc-e, b9 the :act that lamestream me,ia an, <witter are all about .ichael &ac-sonLs ,eath :rom what appears to be a ,ru1 o;er,oseD 2 enEo9 bein1 the spoiler :or a worl, that seemin1l9 ,oes not -now how to set its priorities an9more. +hile 33 o: the 42 commercial me,ia 2 re1ularl9 rea, hea,line with &ac-oD it is Chinese me,ia that publishe, the trul9 important news o: the ,a9. >ereLs the e ecuti;e ;ersion o: Chinese economic news pic-e, :rom the En1lish lan1ua1e 6eopleLs Dail9 =nline. 1. China ta-es public ownership as the main bo,9 an, the other CissueI is to a,here to the common 1rowth o: econom9 belon1in1 to ,i;erse :orms o: ownership. 2. <he 6eopleLs /an- o: China C6/oCI will sticto an appropriatel9 eas9 monetar9 polic9 but will ensure reasonable 1rowth in mone9 an, cre,itD the central ban- sai, 9ester,a9. 3. *ew cre,it in the :irst hal: o: 2%%$ will ,e:initel9 surpass ( trillion 9uanD an, some e perts e;en pre,ict the :i1ure to be up to (.! trillion 9uan. <his means that total cre,it in the :irst hal: o: this 9ear will be more than the total amount in;este, in an9 9ear since China was :oun,e,. 4. China shoul, bu9 more 1ol, because the ,ollar is poise, :or a :all an, the metal is nee,e, to support the 1reater international role en;isa1e, :or the 9uanD a senior researcher with the rulin1 Communist 6art9 sai,. Bou can now 1o bac- to watch C**Ls U) propa1an,a broa,cast an, remain in the K,onLt worr9D be happ9K camp which still has a soli, maEorit9 in the +estern worl,. =r woul, 9ou pre:er to 1ather a little more intel on the ne t \1 power in the worl,F <hen rea, on. /ullet point \1 appears to point to a stru11le o: i,eolo1ies in the Chinese communist part9. Chinese entre&reneurs certainl; <a=or a more liberal
business climate but one must not <orget that there is still a ga& as wide as the $mazon ri=er between the 9errari dri=ing riches in towns and a rural hinterland where o)carts and bic;cles remain to be seen as signs o< &ros&erit;. In order to &re=ent social u&hea=al China needs to bridge this ga& or it ris3s <alling a&art. <he anon9mous commenter in the 6eopleLs Dail9 remin,s the worl, that China still :a;ors a han,s-on
approach:

Scholars
.( Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Bad# China# $gression

$nd Chinese economic growth would s&ur nationalism and !S aggression Brzez3nins3i * CMbi1niewD Counselor P Center 4 )trate1ic @ 2nternt'l )tu,iesD &an37eb !D Forei n Polic"$
D http:33www.carne1ieen,owment.or13publications3in,e .c:mF:aG;iew@i,G1(!3#I E< China is risingV&eace<ull; so <ar. 7or un,erstan,able reasonsD China harbors resentment and e;en humiliation about some chapters o: its histor;. 1ationalism is an im&ortant <orceH an, there are serious 1rie;ances re1ar,in1 e ternal issuesD notabl9 <aiwan. /ut con:lict is not ine;itable or e;en li-el9 . China0s leadershi& is not inclined to challenge the !nited States militaril;H and its <ocus remains on economic de=elo&ment an, winnin1 acceptance as a 1reat power. China is preoccupie,D an, almost <ascinatedH with the traLector; o< its own ascent. +hen 2 met with the top
lea,ership not lon1 a1oD what struc- me was the :reNuenc9 with which 2 was as-e, :or pre,ictions about the ne t 1! or 2% 9ears. *ot lon1 a1oD the Chinese 6olitburo in;ite, two ,istin1uishe,D +estern-traine, pro:essors to a special meetin1. <heir tas- was to anal9Je nine maEor powers since the 1!th centur9 to see wh9 the9 rose an, :ell. 2t's an interestin1 e ercise :or the top lea,ership o: a massi;e an, comple countr9. <his :ocus on the e perience o: past 1reat powers coul, lea, to the conclusion that the iron laws o: political theor9 an, histor9 point to some ine;itable collision or con:lict. /ut there are other political realities. In the ne)t <i=e ;earsH China will host se=eral e=ents that will restrain the conduct o< its <oreign &olic;. <he 2%%# =l9mpic Games is the most importantD o: course. <he scale o: the economic an, ps9cholo1ical in;estment in the /eiEin1 1ames is sta11erin1. .9 e pectation is that the9 will be ma1ni:icentl9 or1aniJe,. An, ma-e no mista-eD China inten,s to win at the =l9mpics. A secon, ,ate is 2%1%D when China will hol, the +orl, E po in )han1hai. )uccess:ull9 or1aniJin1 these international 1atherin1s is important to China an, su11ests that a cautious :orei1n polic9 will pre;ail. .ore broa,l9D China is determined to sustain its economic growth. $
con<rontational <oreign &olic; could disru&t that growthH harm hundreds o< millions o< ChineseH and threaten the Communist 8art;0s hold on &ower. China0s leadershi& a&&ears rationalH calculatingH and conscious not onl; o< China0s rise but also o< its continued wea3ness.
!S C China war would escalate into nuclear e)tinction

Straits >imes 23 C Strait Times$ (.2!.2-I E<
>@E high#intensit; scenario &ostulates a cross#strait war escalating into a <ull#scale war between the !S and China. 2: +ashin1ton were to conclu,e that splittin1 China woul, better ser;e its national interestsD then a :ull-scale war becomes una;oi,able. Con:lict on such a scale woul, embroil other countries :ar an, near an, -horror o: horrors - raise the &ossibilit; o< a nuclear war. /eiEin1 has alrea,9 tol, the U) an, &apan pri;atel9 that it consi,ers an9 countr9 pro;i,in1 bases an, lo1istics support to an9 U) :orces attac-in1 China as belli1erent parties open to its retaliation. 2n the re1ionD this means )outh 8oreaD &apanD the 6hilippines an,D to a lesser e tentD )in1apore. 2: China were to retaliateD east $sia will be set on <ire. An, the con:la1ration ma9 not en, there as opportunistic powers elsewhere ma9 tr9 to o;erturn the e istin1 worl, or,er. +ith the U) ,istracte,D 5ussia ma; see3 to rede<ine Euro&eGs &olitical landsca&e. >he balance o< &ower in the 4iddle East ma; be similarl9 u&set b9 the li-es o: 2raN. 2n south AsiaD hostilities between India and 8a3istanH each armed with its own nuclear arsenalH could enter a new and dangerous &hase. +ill a :ullscale )ino-U) war lea, to a nuclear warF Accor,in1 to General .atthew 0i,1ewa9D comman,er o: the U) Ei1hth Arm9 which :ou1ht a1ainst the Chinese in the 8orean +arD the U) ha, at the time thou1ht o: usin1 nuclear weapons a1ainst China to sa;e the U) :rom militar9 ,e:eat. 2n his boo- <he 8orean +arD a personal account o: the militar9 an, political aspects o: the con:lict an, its implications on :uture U) :orei1n polic9D Gen 0i,1ewa9 sai, that U) was con:ronte, with two choices in 8orea -truce or a broa,ene, warD which coul, ha;e le, to the use o: nuclear weapons. 2: the U) ha, to resort to nuclear weaponr9 to ,e:eat China lon1 be:ore the latter acNuire, a similar capabilit9D there is little hope o: winnin1 a war a1ainst China !% 9ears laterD short o: usin1 nuclear weapons. <he U) estimates that China possesses about 2% nuclear warhea,s that can ,estro9 maEor American cities . BeiLing also seems &re&ared to go <or the nuclear o&tion . A Chinese militar9 o::icer ,isclose, recentl9 that /eiEin1 was consi,erin1 a re;iew o: its Knon :irst useK principle re1ar,in1 nuclear weapons. .aEor-General 6an Mhan1Nian1D presi,ent o: the militar9-:un,e, 2nstitute :or )trate1ic )tu,iesD tol, a 1atherin1 at the +oo,row +ilson 2nternational Centre :or )cholars in +ashin1ton that althou1h the 1o;ernment still abi,e, b9 that principleD there were stron1 pressures :rom the militar9 to ,rop it. >e sai, militar9 lea,ers consi,ere, the use o: nuclear weapons man,ator9 i: the countr9 ris-e, ,ismemberment as a result o: :orei1n inter;ention. Gen 0i,1ewa9 sai, that shoul, that come to passH we would see the destruction o< ci=ilisation.

Scholars
.* Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Bad# China $rms Build !&

Chinese economic growth is used to increase de<ense budgets and build u& militar; Shah ,/, CAnupD :oun,er o: 1lobal issuesD ".".1%D lobal issues$ http:33www.1lobalissues.or13article3"!3worl,militar9-spen,in1$I E< AlsoD TChina an, 2n,iaD the world0s two emerging economic &owersD are demonstrating a sustained increase in their militar; e)&enditure and contribute to the growth in world militar; s&ending . 2n absolute terms their current spen,in1 is onl9 a :raction o: the U)A's. >heir increases are largel; commensurate with their economic growth.O
Chinese economic growth allows it to s&end more on wea&ons# 200- &ro=es Shah ,/, CAnupD :oun,er o: 1lobal issuesD ".".1%D lobal issues$ http:33www.1lobalissues.or13article3"!3worl,militar9-spen,in1$I E< <he last point re:ers to ra&idl; de=elo&ing nations li3e China an, 2n,ia that ha=e seen their economies boom in recent ;ears. 2n a,,itionD high and rising world mar3et &rices :or minerals an, :ossil :uels Cat least until recentl9I ha;e also enabled some nations to s&end more on their militaries. ChinaH :or the :irst timeD ran3ed number 2 in s&ending in 2%%#.
$rms races cause global war Cross +/1, CGilesD 0ur Future PlanetD (.1".1%D http:33www.our:utureplanet.or13news34%%-war-the-1lobal-armsrace-is-one-o:-the-more-shoc-in1-aspects-o:-humanit9- I E< >here are &lent; o< cam&aigning organisations out there loo3ing to &ut an end to &ro<it <rom war. $mon1 them is the 2nternational Crisis Group C2C)ID which wor-s to put an en, to worl,wi,e con:lict. /acin 2%%# the 1roup reporte, on how an, wh9 arms races can potentiall9 boil o;erU [<wo states we,1e, between Europe an, 2ran are loc-e, in an arms race an, preparin1 :or war. >he international communit; D particularl9 the EUH might be able to slow ,own Armenia an, AJerbaiEan's slide toward another de=astating con<lict. X$ttem&ts to bro3er &eace o=er the &ast dozen ;ears ha=e <ailedH and worseH a massi=e arms build u& has started. /ooste, b9 oil re;enuesD AJerbaiEan increase, its militar9 spen,in1 b9 a recor, !1 per cent in 2%%43%!D an, then raise, it a :urther #2 per cent in 2%%(. [<he shoppin1 spree has so :ar inclu,e, lar1e numbers o: multi launch roc-et s9stemsD new artiller9D tan-s an, both 7-1! an, .i1-2$ :i1hters. 2n 2%%" 6resi,ent 2lham Ali9e; promise, to ma-e AJerbaiEan's militar9 spen,in1 eNual to Armenia's entire state bu,1et. [/ut Armenia is har,l9 a tortoise in this race. <hou1h its militar9 bu,1et is onl9 about a Nuarter o: its nei1hbour'sD it last 9ear spent some O2#% million on weaponsD another recor,.' .ore recentl9D in .arch 2%%$D the same 1roup reporte, on :ears that a space arms race was ,e;elopin1 in 8orea. [S&ace race d;namics are among the li3el; 8;ong;ang moti=ations <or the >ae&odong#2 launch.0 e)&lained the re&ortH describing 1orth :orean as&irations. ICS rec3oned e=er; ad=ance in technolog; and de=elo&ment raised the ris3s o< an arms race.

Scholars
.+ Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ bad# China $rms Build !& I/6

Economic growth in china leads it to build u& its militar; Shah ,/, CAnupD :oun,er o: 1lobal issuesD ".".1%D lobal issues$ http:33www.1lobalissues.or13article3"!3worl,militar9-spen,in1$I E< Some nations li3e China an, 2n,ia ha=e not e perience, a ,ownturnD but instea, enLo;ed economic growth 4ost de=elo&ed Can, some lar1er ,e;elopin1I countries ha;e boosted &ublic s&ending to tac3le the recession using large economic stimulus &ac3ages. 4ilitar; s&endingH though not a large &art o< itH has been &art o< that general &ublic e)&enditure attention Csome also call this T.ilitar9 8e9nesianismQ Geopolitics an, strate1ic interests to proEect or maintain power: Trisin1 militar9 spen,in1 :or the U)AD as the onl9 superpowerD an, :or other maEor or interme,iate powersD such as /raJilD ChinaD 0ussia an, 2n,iaD appears to represent a strate1ic choice in their lon1-term Nuest :or 1lobal an, re1ional in:luenceU one that the9 ma9 be loath to 1o withoutD e;en in har, economic timesQD )2602 a,,s.
$ndH china s&ends hal< their de<ense budget on wea&ons# increases in de<ense budget directl; increase wea&ons Global Securit;.org 10 C.ar. !D 2lobal Securit"3or
E< $ http:33www.1lobalsecurit9.or13militar93worl,3china3bu,1et.htmI
Unite, )tates De&artment o< De<ense o<<icials in 1$#( estimated Chinese de<ense s&ending b; resources and <orce categories :or the 1$(" to 1$#3 perio,. 5oughl; *0 &ercent o< de<ense e)&enditures were <or wea&onsD eJui&mentH and new <acilitiesU 3! percent :or operatin1 costsU an, 1! percent :or researchD ,e;elopmentD an, testin1 an, e;aluation. /9 ser;iceD these costs bro-e ,own to 2! percent :or the 1roun, :orcesU 1! percent :or the *a;9U 1! percent :or strate1ic air ,e:ensesU ! percent :or ballistic missile :orcesU ! percent :or tactical air :orcesU an, about 3! percent :or comman,D lo1isticsD personnelD intelli1enceD me,ical careD a,ministrationD researchD ,e;elopmentD testin1 an, e;aluationD an, other support. /e1innin1 in the late 1$"%sD China de=oted more resources to its Strategic 4issile 9orceH indicating an e<<ort to increase its strategic securit; while modernizing the econom;H and to national command and su&&ort acti=itiesH re<lecting an em&hasis on modernization o< the de<ense structure

Scholars
., Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Bad# $2% China $rms

1on !niJue# China increasing militar; s&ending now# no im&acts !mbach . C 7ran-D anal9st at German council on :orei1n relationsD IP 2lobalD http:33www.ip1lobal.or13archi;3;olumes32%%3winter2%%%3china---s-,estabiliJin1-arms-buil,up.html D )prin1 $ I E< ?ut o< the limelightH China has been increasing its militar; s&ending and wea&ons ,ramaticall9. Double,i1it 1rowth in militar9 bu,1ets :ar outstrips GD6 1rowth. Especiall9 i: the U) an, 0ussia carr9 out proEecte, nuclear re,uctionsD China could soon be a maLor nuclear &ower in the region. 2ts smaller nei1hbors see /eiEin1 as an increasin1 threatAbut /eiEin1 re:uses to reco1niJe this. <he threats o: war Eust be:ore the <aiwanese presi,ential election last .archD the recent increase in China0s o<<icial de<ense budget b; 12., &ercent to 12%.! billion 9uan CO1! billionIA:or a hu1e real ,e:ense bu,1et in 1$$$ o: more than O4% billionD accor,in1 to the latest .ilitar9 /alance o: the 2nternational 2nstitute :or )trate1ic )tu,iesA plus this 9ear's enlar1e, 1ap between ,ouble-,i1it militar9 spen,in1 increases an, o;erall 1rowth o: the 1ross ,omestic pro,uct o: an o::icial ".1 percentAha;e all hei1htene, the sense o: latent threat amon1 China's nei1hbors.
1on uniJue im&acts# china0s budget increasing e=en in recession !mbach . C 7ran-D anal9st at German council on :orei1n relationsD IP 2lobalD http:33www.ip1lobal.or13archi;3;olumes32%%3winter2%%%3china---s-,estabiliJin1-arms-buil,up.html D )prin1 $ I E< Inde&endent sur=e;s that also include <actors li3e energ; consum&tion as reliable indicators o< economic growth &oint to an e=en greater militar; burden in re,ucin1 calculations o: GD6 1rowth below si percent. >his ;ear0s increase in the de<ense budgetthe double digits o< each ;ear in the &ast decade A con:irms the recent tren, awa9 :rom the :ormer supreme lea,er Den1 5iaopin1's earlier priorit9 :or economic ,e;elopment o;er mo,erniJation o: the Chinese 6eople's 4iberation Arm9 C64AI.
1on uniJue# Chinese arsenals going to grow immensel; !mbach . C 7ran-D anal9st at German council on :orei1n relationsD IP 2lobalD http:33www.ip1lobal.or13archi;3;olumes32%%3winter2%%%3china---s-,estabiliJin1-arms-buil,up.html D )prin1 $ I E< $s the 2est im&osed a com&rehensi=e arms embargo on China a:ter the <ien An .en con:rontation in 1$#$D BeiLing had no choice other than intensi<;ing its traditional armaments lin3s with Israel and D in particularD with 5ussia. 2ith the Chinese militar; elite still dee&l; dissatis<ied with the &roducts o< its own armaments in,ustr9D China has since the be1innin1 o: the 1$$%s been acJuiring the latest 5ussian wea&ons s;stems especiall9 :or its na;9 an, air :orce. <he most spectacular purchases inclu,e "2 :i1hter aircra:tD two state-o:-the-art ,estro9ersD each eNuippe, with ei1ht mo,ern cruise missiles o: the t9pe ))-*-22 )unburn Cran1e 12% -mID an, :our submarines o: the 8ilo class. A,,itionall9D in &ul9 o: 1$$$ an a1reement was reache, to purchase 4% to (% :i1hter aircra:t o: the t9pe )u-3% .88D :itte, with the latest missilesD at a cost o: O2 billion. ?ther in=estment &lans are <or two to three submarines o: the 8ilo or Amur classD two to three more )o;remenn9 ,estro9ersD an, an a,,itional 4% :i1hter planes. 2hile the destro;ers with their cruise missiles constitute an e<<ecti=e threat to the $merican aircra<t carriers and destro;ersH the &urchase o< modern 5ussian <ighter &lanes Cran1e 1(%% -m.I is inten,e, to achie;e an, then consoli,ate strate1ic air ,ominanceD which is essential :or success:ul maritime operations in the )outh China )ea an, :or posin1 an e::ecti;e threat o: in;asion to <aiwan. /9 2%1%-201* BeiLing is li3el; to ha=e more than 1000 modern <ighter aircra<t and a corres&onding number o< tan3 trans&ort aircra<t and maritime &atrol aircra<tR this woul, brin1 about a 1ra,ual shi:t in the balance o: militar9 power between China on the one han, an, <aiwan an, the A)EA* countries on the other.

Scholars
.Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Bad# $2% China $rms I/6

1on uniJue# china building arsenals u& now !mbach . C 7ran-D anal9st at German council on :orei1n relationsD IP 2lobalD http:33www.ip1lobal.or13archi;3;olumes32%%3winter2%%%3china---s-,estabiliJin1-arms-buil,up.html D )prin1 $ I E< <husD in recent ;ears China has built u& its nuclear wea&ons and missile &otential in the >aiwan StraitsU b9 2%%! the number o: s9stems it has in this area will ha;e risen :rom (!% to #%%. /eiEin1 is also acceleratin1 the ,e;elopment o: lan,- an, sea-launche, cruise missilesD which will be a;ailable :or the arm9 in Eust a :ew 9ears. At the same timeD it has stationed long#range anti#aircra<t missiles o< the 5ussian t9pe )-3%% 6.U1 in the regionH with the intent o: se;erel9 restrictin1 <aiwanese an, American air operations ,urin1 an9 con:lict.
1on uniJue im&act turn# china increasing nuclear warheads now !mbach . C 7ran-D anal9st at German council on :orei1n relationsD IP 2lobalD http:33www.ip1lobal.or13archi;3;olumes32%%3winter2%%%3china---s-,estabiliJin1-arms-buil,up.html D )prin1 $ I E< 2n the 1lobal arenaD tooD China is tr;ing to change the strategic militar; balance in comin1 9earsD and to this en, has gi=en &riorit; to the e)&ansion o< its nuclear#stri3e ca&abilit; . At present China has onl; '00 strategic and 1*0 tactical nuclear warheadsD but in the ne)t decade the number o< strategic nuclear warheads could rise to between +00 and .00. +hile the other :our ,eclare, nuclear powers ha;e either :roJen nuclear-weapons pro1rams at their current le;el CGreat /ritain an, 7ranceID orD li-e the U) an, 0ussiaD ha;e contractuall9 un,erta-en to re,uce their strate1ic nuclear arms potential to :ewer than 1!%% warhea,s each in the thir, )trate1ic Arms 0e,uctions <al-s C)<A0< 222ID China is so :ar not part9 to an9 )<A0< or 2nterme,iate-0an1e *uclear 7orces C2*7I a1reement an, can there:ore continue to e pan, its nuclear weapons arsenal both Nualitati;el9 an, Nuantitati;el9D with =irtuall; no restrictions. $n increase to between (%% an, $%% warheads would b; the ;ear 2010 dramaticall; change the ratio o< China0s warheadsD especiall9 to the nuclear arsenal o: 0ussia. As 0ussia ma9 ha;e onl9 #%% to $%% warhea,s a:ter 2%%"D militar9 an, strate1ic parit9 in the nuclear weapons arsenal is now onl9 a Nuestion o: time. 0ussia woul, then ha;e ma,e a consi,erable contribution itsel: to the shi:t in the balance o: militar9 power in Asia an, the worl, throu1h its own armaments e ports an,D in particularD throu1h technolo19 trans:er to China. <his coul, ne1ati;el9 in:luence 0ussia's own mi,- an, lon1-term securit9 abo;e allAa conseNuence that man9 0ussian securit9 e perts are still unwillin1 to ac-nowle,1e at present.
1on uniJue im&act turn# china building arms now !mbach . C 7ran-D anal9st at German council on :orei1n relationsD IP 2lobalD http:33www.ip1lobal.or13archi;3;olumes32%%3winter2%%%3china---s-,estabiliJin1-arms-buil,up.html D )prin1 $ I E< As China is also increasingl; lin3ing nuclear and con=entional stri3e o&tions in its own nuclear doctrine o< M<le)ible res&onseHO its nuclear-wea&ons capabilit9 acts primaril9 as a deterrent in re1ional hi1h-tech wars. It is thus intended to deter e ternal &owers li3e the !S <rom militar; inter=ention D while enablin1 China to use its superior con;entional :orces e::ecti;el9 in the pursuit o: its political 1oals. <he de=elo&ment o< the nuclear#wea&ons arsenal there:ore also has high rele=ance to the securit; o< China0s smaller neighbors. <he 6eople's 0epublic is less intereste, in creatin1 a true militar9 balance than in buil,in1 up e::ecti;e militar9 ,eterrent capabilities a1ainst the Unite, )tatesD in or,er to increase sharpl9 the U) ;ulnerabilit9 an, thus raise the threshol, o: American inter;ention throu1h a scenario o: Tas9mmetric war:are.Q A1ainst this bac-1roun, o: anta1onistic securit9 perceptions an, conceptsD the securit; dilemmas in East $sia could be <urther aggra=ated.

Scholars
.. Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Bad# China # !S/ China 5el

Chinese Economic growth causes !S/ China con<lict o=er &ower# escalation ensured @ileman ,/* CGarric-D :inancial consultant an, tra,er :or pri;ate corporationsD ".!.1%D Seekin Al+haD
http:33see-in1alpha.com3article32131%1-is-a-u-s-china-economic-war-on-its-wa9 I E< <he Chinese ha=e been dri=ing a =er; hard bargain with the rest o< the world with their mana1e, currenc9 polic9. China has bene:itte, tremen,ousl9 :rom Eoinin1 the open worl, econom9. >owe;erD :ree tra,e is not an inalienable so;erei1n ri1ht. ChinaGs growing economic &ower comes with the role o< being a res&onsible global actor b; &la;ing b; the same rules as its trading &artners. >he !.S. has grown wear; o< waiting <or the Chinese go=ernment to come around at a time when it is also economicall9 wea-ene,. 2n shortD the time has come :or the renminbi to be re;alue, upwar, or U.). action will occur. +hat is ChinaLs realpoliti- calculationF ChinaGs leadershi&H emboldened <or e)am&le b; the <ailure o< the !.S. to na=igate the world awa; <rom a near <inancial colla&se an, Goo1leLs recent blin-D is growing more con<ident. It is reasonable to assume that China will increasingl; <le) its economic muscles and ma; reLect the !.S.Gs reJuest <or a change in its currenc; &olic;. <he Chinese 1o;ernment stubbornl9 ,etests public pressure :rom :orei1n 1o;ernment o::icials. Bet the Chinese leadershi& a&&ears to onl; mo=e when the; are <orced to do so. $nd o:ten when the; do :inall9 ma-e a chan1eD as with the most recent renminbi mo;eD the; barel; budge. At the same timeD it is highl; unli3el; the !.S. will Juietl; surrender its role as the worldGs dominant su&er&owe r. An, the pressure is 1rowin1 to ta-e swi:tD asserti;e action on the renminbi as calls to K,o somethin1K 1row lou,er in the :ace o: a ,eterioratin1 ,omestic econom9.
!S C China war would escalate into nuclear e)tinction Straits >imes 23 C Strait Times$ (.2!.2-I E<
>@E high#intensit; scenario &ostulates a cross#strait war escalating into a <ull#scale war between the !S and China. 2: +ashin1ton were to conclu,e that splittin1 China woul, better ser;e its national interestsD then a :ull-scale war becomes una;oi,able. Con:lict on such a scale woul, embroil other countries :ar an, near an, -horror o: horrors - raise the &ossibilit; o< a nuclear war. /eiEin1 has alrea,9 tol, the U) an, &apan pri;atel9 that it consi,ers an9 countr9 pro;i,in1 bases an, lo1istics support to an9 U) :orces attac-in1 China as belli1erent parties open to its retaliation. 2n the re1ionD this means )outh 8oreaD &apanD the 6hilippines an,D to a lesser e tentD )in1apore. 2: China were to retaliateD east $sia will be set on <ire. An, the con:la1ration ma9 not en, there as opportunistic powers elsewhere ma9 tr9 to o;erturn the e istin1 worl, or,er. +ith the U) ,istracte,D 5ussia ma; see3 to rede<ine Euro&eGs &olitical landsca&e. >he balance o< &ower in the 4iddle East ma; be similarl9 u&set b9 the li-es o: 2raN. 2n south AsiaD hostilities between India and 8a3istanH each armed with its own nuclear arsenalH could enter a new and dangerous &hase. +ill a :ullscale )ino-U) war lea, to a nuclear warF Accor,in1 to General .atthew 0i,1ewa9D comman,er o: the U) Ei1hth Arm9 which :ou1ht a1ainst the Chinese in the 8orean +arD the U) ha, at the time thou1ht o: usin1 nuclear weapons a1ainst China to sa;e the U) :rom militar9 ,e:eat. 2n his boo- <he 8orean +arD a personal account o: the militar9 an, political aspects o: the con:lict an, its implications on :uture U) :orei1n polic9D Gen 0i,1ewa9 sai, that U) was con:ronte, with two choices in 8orea -truce or a broa,ene, warD which coul, ha;e le, to the use o: nuclear weapons. 2: the U) ha, to resort to nuclear weaponr9 to ,e:eat China lon1 be:ore the latter acNuire, a similar capabilit9D there is little hope o: winnin1 a war a1ainst China !% 9ears laterD short o: usin1 nuclear weapons. <he U) estimates that China possesses about 2% nuclear warhea,s that can ,estro9 maEor American cities . BeiLing also seems &re&ared to go <or the nuclear o&tion . A Chinese militar9 o::icer ,isclose, recentl9 that /eiEin1 was consi,erin1 a re;iew o: its Knon :irst useK principle re1ar,in1 nuclear weapons. .aEor-General 6an Mhan1Nian1D presi,ent o: the militar9-:un,e, 2nstitute :or )trate1ic )tu,iesD tol, a 1atherin1 at the +oo,row +ilson 2nternational Centre :or )cholars in +ashin1ton that althou1h the 1o;ernment still abi,e, b9 that principleD there were stron1 pressures :rom the militar9 to ,rop it. >e sai, militar9 lea,ers consi,ere, the use o: nuclear weapons man,ator9 i: the countr9 ris-e, ,ismemberment as a result o: :orei1n inter;ention. Gen 0i,1ewa9 sai, that shoul, that come to passH we would see the destruction o< ci=ilisation.

Scholars
Im&acts# Econ Bad# China # 2arming

Chinese growth destro;s ecos;stems and is one o< the biggest contributors to global warming 4anila . Cwritin1 about a speech b9 >aruhi-o 8uro,aD 6resi,ent o: the Asian De;elopment /an-ID
http:33www.space,ail9.com32%%(3%$%(1(%(11%(.c4-3t4t".html D )pace Dail9I $siaGs ra&id economic growth in recent ;ears has contributed signi<icantl; to climate change and en=ironmental &ollutionD the hea, o: the Asian De;elopment /an- CAD/I warne, on <ues,a9. 2n response to thisD Kit is imperati;e that we escalate our e::orts to put the re1ion on a path o: low-carbon 1rowthDK banpresi,ent >aruhi-o 8uro,a tol, an AD/ :orum on climate chan1e. K5a&id de=elo&ment has li<ted hundreds o< millions o< &eo&le out o< &o=ert; while bringing the region as a whole to higher li=ing standards. $long with this economic e)&ansionH howe=erH has been a rise in en=ironmental &ollution including greenhouse gas emissionsDK he sai,. >e sai, the de=elo&ing countries o< $sia now account <or one#third o< global emissions brought about b; energ; consum&tionH de<orestation and land use . KUnless measures are ta-en nowH $siaGs share o< global greenhouse gas emissions could increase to more than (0 &ercent b; 20'0HI he sai,. <he AD/ was tr9in1 to a,,ress this an, ha, pro;i,e, almost 1." billion ,ollars :or KproEects with clean ener19 componentsDK inclu,in1 win, power proEects in China an, 2n,iaD he sai,. Asian countries are also see-in1 wa9s to stimulate 1rowth without hurtin1 the en;ironmentD Kinclu,in1 ,e;elopment o: renewable ener19 an, other en;ironmentall9 sustainable technolo1iesDK he sai,.
2arming <orms a high wa; to e)tinctionH slaughtering billions through star=ationH <looding and disease @ui 4in , C*eo )traits <imes Europe /ureau sta:: writerI
http:33www.wil,sin1apore.com3news32%%"%3%43%"%4%(-14.htm\stI >?8 climate scientists issued their blea3est assessment ;et on global warming ;esterda; D with a warnin1 that billions o< &eo&le could go thirst; as water su&&lies dr; u& and millions more ma; star=e as <armlands become deserts. 6oor tropical countries that are least to blame :or causin1 the problem will be worst hitD sai, the
report. )mall islan, statesD AsiaLs bi1 ri;er ,eltasD the ArcticD an, sub- )aharan A:rica are also at ris-. Global warmin1 coul, also rapi,l9 thaw >imala9an 1laciers that :ee, ri;ers :rom 2n,ia to ChinaD an, brin1 heat wa;es to Europe an, *orth America. <he ,ire warnin1s came :rom the 2nter1o;ernmental 6anel on Climate Chan1e C26CCI. <he :inal te t o: a 21-pa1e )ummar9 :or 6olic9ma-ers was a1ree, on a:ter an all-ni1ht session mar-e, b9 serious ,isputes. )cientists :rom more than 1%% countries ma,e up the panel. <heir report :orms the secon, o: a :our-part climate assessmentD with the :inal section to be release, earl9 ne t month in /an1-o-. 2ts :in,in1s are appro;e, unanimousl9 b9 1o;ernments an, will 1ui,e polic9 on issues such as e ten,in1 the Unite, *ationLs 89oto 6rotocolD the main plan :or cappin1 1reenhouse 1as emissionsD be9on, 2%12. <he 1rim 1D4%%-pa1e report issue, 9ester,a9 sai, chan1eD wi,el9 blame, on human emissions o: 1reenhouse 1asesD was alrea,9 un,er wa9 in nature. >he I8CC noted that damage to the earthGs weather
s;stems was changing rain<all &atternsH &unching u& the &ower o< storms and boosting the ris3 o< droughtH <looding and stress on water su&&lies. )ome scientists e=en called the degree#b;#degree &roLection a Ghighwa; to e)tinctionG. A,, 1 ,e1 C to the earthGs a=erage tem&eratures and between (00 million and 1., billion more &eo&le cannot get enough water. A,, another 1.# ,e1 C an, as man9 as two billion people coul, be without waterD an, about 20 &er cent to '0 &er cent o< the worldGs s&ecies <ace e)tinction. 4ore &eo&le will also start d;ing because o< malnutritionH diseaseH heat wa=esH <loods and droughts. <his coul, happen as earl9 as 2%!%. GChanges in climate are now a<<ecting &h;sical and biological s;stems on e=er; continentHL sai, the report. Uni;ersit9 o: .ichi1an ecolo1ist 0osina /ierbaumD :ormer hea, o: the Unite, )tatesL 26CC ,ele1ationD sai,: L2t is clear that a number o< s&ecies are going to be lost.G .r 0aEen,ra 6achauriD chairman o: the 26CCD sai,: GItGs the &oorest o< the &oor in the worldH and this includes &oor &eo&le e=en in &ros&erous societiesH who are going to be the worst hit. G>his does become a global res&onsibilit; in m; =iew.G )tillD some scientists accuse, 1o;ernments o: waterin1 ,own the :orecasts. <he9 sai,
ChinaD 0ussia an, )au,i Arabia ha, raise, most obEections o;erni1htD see-in1 to tone ,own some :in,in1s. =ther participants also sai, the U)D which pulle, out o: the 89oto 6rotocol in 2%%1 sa9in1 it was too costl9D ha, tone, ,own some passa1es. Dr 6ramo, 8umar A11arwalD one o: the authors o: the reportD tol, <he )traits <imes that temperature increases coul, lea, to crop :ailure
an, risin1 pricesD with ,ire conseNuences :or the poor. L2n AsiaD 9ou are tal-in1 about millions or billions o: peopleDL he sai,.

Scholars
Im&acts# Econ Bad# India Bad# $rms

$nd India uses economic growth to increase wea&ons modernization $rnett ., CEricD Arms Control Toda" #ol 45 no3 6D http:33www.mthol9o-e.e,u3aca,3intrel3arnett.htm D Au1 $"I E<
7irstD 8a3istani &lanners ma; not be as sanguine about Indian ca&abilitiesD an, the :ears an, perceptions o: 6a-istanis are the central issue. 7rom 2slamaba,Ls perspecti;eD it increasin1l9 appears that most o: the maEor arms suppliers are cooperatin1 with 2n,iaD e;en those that ha;e alrea,9 sol, s9stems to 6a-istan. Some o< the s;stems that ha=e been su&&liedH especiall9 the Armat anti-ra,ar missileD can be ;er9 e::ecti;e e;en in the han,s o: less-s-ille, pilots. <he Nualit9 an, li-el9 e::ecti;eness o: other s9stems are ;er9 ,i::icult to Eu,1e without much 1reater transparenc9 on the part o: the 2AE )econ,D Indian societ; is set to &rogress at an un&recedented rateH &otentiall; enLo;ing economic growth and modernization that are li3el; to dramaticall; increase the budget and com&etence o< the countr;Gs armed <orces . As relations with China impro;eD e=en more o< IndiaGs militar; &otential can be <ocused on 8a3istani contingencies . E;en i: 2A7 stri-e sNua,rons ha;e some wea-nesses nowD !.S. &olic;ma3ers should not be betting against substantial im&ro=ements in Indian technological &ro<icienc; in the near <utureD especiall9 since U.). :irms are contributin1 to the technolo1ical base o: both the ci;ilian an, militar9 sectors.
$nd most o< India0s econom; goes to arms# economic growth would be <unneled there $rnett ., CEricD Arms Control Toda" #ol 45 no3 6D http:33www.mthol9o-e.e,u3aca,3intrel3arnett.htm D Au1 $"I E<
India and 8a3istan ha=e been ri=als since their creation as separate states in 1$4". E;en thou1h there ha;e been man9 small scale con:licts between the two countriesD the nuclearization o< the region is belie=ed to bring stabilit; at higher le=els o< =iolence. <he retar,e, economic growth in both countries could be associated with the ongoing arms race between the two countriesH as scarce resources are allocated <or militar; &ur&oses. 2n this paper the nature o: the arms race between 2n,ia an, 6a-istan has been e amine, b9 emplo9in1 <o,a-Bamamoto's approach to ?A0 non-causalit9 :or the time perio, 1$4$2%%%. <he empirical :in,in1s in,icate that there is bi#directoral causalit; between the two countries militar; e)&enditures. .oreo;erD the causalit9 between militar9 e pen,iture an, economic 1rowth has been in;esti1ate,. >he em&irical results indicate that there is a bi#directional causalit; between militar; burden and economic growth in India. >owe;erD :or 6a-istan causalit9 is :rom economic 1rowth to militar9 e pen,iture. <here is no empirical e;i,ence o: causalit9 :rom militar9 bur,en to economic 1rowth in 6a-istan.
$ndH the im&act is e)tinction 9ai 1 CGhulam *abiD ,irector o: 8ashmiri American Council]!A TimesD ".#.1I E<
<he most ,an1erous place on the planet is :ashmirD a ,ispute, territor9 con;ulse, an, ille1all9 occupie, :or more than !3 9ears an, san,wiche, between nuclear-capable 2n,ia an, 6a-istan. 2t has ignited two wars between the estranged South $sian ri=als in 1$4# an, 1$(!D and a third could trigger nuclear =olle;s and a nuclear winter threatening the entire globe. >he !nite, States would enLo; no sanctuar;. >his a&ocal;&tic =ision is no idios;ncratic =iew. <he Director o: Central 2ntelli1enceD the Department o: De:enseD an, world e)&erts generall; &lace :ashmir at the &ea3 o< their nuclear worries. Both India and 8a3istan are racing li3e thoroughbreds to bolster their nuclear arsenals and ad=anced deli=er; =ehicles. <heir ,e:ense bu,1ets are climbin1 ,espite wi,esprea, miser9 amon1st their populations. *either countr9 has initiale, the *uclear *on-6roli:eration <reat9D the Comprehensi;e <est /an <reat9D or in,icate, an inclination to rati:9 an impen,in1 7issile .aterial3Cut-o:: Con;ention.

Scholars
Im&acts# Econ Bad# Iran Build !&

$nd iran nuclearization s&ar3s a middle east arms race culminating in e)tinction 9inn - C6eterD +A 6ost sta:: writerD The !ashin ton Post$ 11.21.#D http:33www.washin1tonpost.com3wp,9n3content3article32%%#3113213A02%%#1121%%%$1.html I E< <he &ros&ect o< a nuclear#armed Iran s&awning a nuclear arms race in the greater 4iddle East will bring new securit; challenges to an alread; con<lict#&rone regionD particularl9 in conLunction with the &roli<eration o< long#range missile s;stems DK the report sa9s. K. . . I< nuclear wea&ons are used destructi=el; in the ne)t 1*#20 ;earsH the international s;stem will be shoc3ed as it e)&eriences immediate humanitarianH economicH and &olitical#militar; re&ercussions.I

Scholars
Im&acts# Econ Bad# 5ussia # :;oto

5ussian economic growth would disable it <rom selling Mhot airO credits to /a&an SeLo * C0o1erD senior :ellow an, the ,irector o: 077Ls :orest economicsD Resources &or the 7utureD
http:33www.r::.or13E;ents36a1es3<he-En,-o:-89oto-=r-+h9-2t-Doesnt-0eall9-.atter-+hat-the-0ussians-Doabout-89oto.asp I E<
0ussia's hesitanc9 to rati:9 the 89oto 6rotocol onl9 con:irms what has alrea,9 become ob;ious: the 89oto 6rotocol is in ;er9 ,eep trouble. /ut regardless o< what 5ussia doesH man; countries are unli3el; to e=en begin to meet their targeted emission reductions commitments . <hese tar1etsD ,esi1ne, to re,uce atmospheric 1reenhouse 1ases CG>GI in or,er to restrain 1lobal warmin1D call :or emission le;el re,uctions in the perio, 2%%#A 2%12 o: about (A#R below the le;els o: the base 9earD 1$$%. <o be sureD not all in,ustrial countries chose to rati:9 89oto. 6resi,ent /ush recei;e, stron1 criticism :or his ,ecision that the Unite, )tates will not participate. =ther in,ustrial countriesD such as AustraliaD also chose not to participate. An, 5ussiaH whose
membershi& is reJuired to meet the **E &artici&ation rate b; industrial countriesH remains a wild card. E;en with 0ussian rati:icationD howe;erD the :un,amental :ailure o: the 6rotocol is almost assure,. <he recent a,monition b9 the
European Union CEUI en;ironmental commissioner Kthat the tren, is 1oin1 in the wron1 ,irectionDK is in,icati;e o: the lac- o: pro1ress. <he European Union has a collecti;e tar1et o: G>G re,uctions o: #R below 1$$% le;els an, has ma,e stri,es to reach that 1oal. /ut with the e ception o: the Unite, 8in1,omSwhich is in the process o: con;ertin1 its ener19 sector :rom coal to natural 1asSan, )we,en the EU is not on a path to reach its tar1ets. <he Unite, 8in1,om was Nuite success:ulD achie;in1 the tar1et re,uction o: 12.!R percent in the 9ear 2%%% lar1el9 ,ue to *orth )ea 1as reser;es. )painD b9 contrastD is allowin1 a 1!R increase in emissions b9 the 2%%#A 2%12 perio,D but actual emissions in 2%%% were 32 R abo;e the 1$$% base. >owe;erD the European Union is still hopin1 to meet its collecti;e tar1et an, then un,erta-e internal tra,es amon1 surplus an, ,e:icit countries to allow la11in1 countries to meet their in,i;i,ual tar1ets. <he li-elihoo, o: success remains open to Nuestion. 9ailure to sta; on target is not limited E!
countries. /a&an has a targeted reduction o< +EH which it &lans meet though a combination o< new technologies an, the use o: capturin1 carbon ,io i,e in :orest seNuestration. >he /a&anese &lan assumes that o=erall energ; emissions will remain at their 1..0 le=elsH based on a '0E increase in nuclear &ower D which ,oes not emit 1reenhouse 1ases. >owe;erD b; 2000 /a&an <ound itsel< with actual emissions 11E abo=e the 1..0 base D
,espite an econom9 that sta1nate, throu1h most o: the 1$$%s. +ith the &apanese econom9 :inall9 pic-in1 upD the reNuisite increases in nuclear :acilities not pro1ressin1 at a rate a,eNuate to meet the 3%R tar1etD an, anticipate, lar1e 1ains :rom ;oluntar9 acti;itiesD such as home insulationD unli-el9 to be :orthcomin1 on the scale reNuire,H /a&an will be se=erel; tried to meet her targets . )imilarl9D Cana,a will :in, it e tremel9 ,i::icult to meet its 1reenhouse 1as emission tar1et o: a ( R re,uction :rom 1$$% le;els. )ince that 9ear Cana,a has e perience, mo,est economic e pansion an, correspon,in1l9 reasonabl9 lar1e increases in 1reenhouse 1as emissions. Cana,ian emissions in 2%%% were 1$.( percent abo;e those o: 1$$%. Another business-as-usual ,eca,e woul, brin1 emissions in 2%1% to about 3! percent abo;e 1$$%. <he ,omestic emission tra,in1 s9stem propose, :or Cana,aD to1ether with a plethora o: a, hoc measures are unli-el9 to pro,uce the emission re,uctions reNuire, to meet its tar1et. $ senior Canadian o<<icial &ublicl; boasted that Canada would meet its targets regardless o< 5ussian in=ol=ement. Don0t bet on it. Until recentl9D the abo;e estimates mi1ht ha;e seeme, moot. A:ter the <all o< the So=iet !nionH 5ussia e)&erienced dramatic
declines in economic acti=it; and coincidental large decreases in greenhouse gas emissions. :;oto allows 5ussian emission declines below its 1$$% base to be traded as so calle, Khot airI credits to countries ha=ing di<<icult; meeting their targets . >enceD countries missing their domestic targets could e)&ect meet them through the &urchase o< 5ussian Ihot airI and thereb9 declare compliance =ictor;. *o more. E;en i: 0ussian shoul, rati:9 89otoD the a=ailabilit; o< Ihot airI could well be limited. 5ussian o<<icials ha=e stated &ublicl; thatH i< their GD8 grows as proEecte,D it li-el9 would utilize need all its hot air to meet its own :;oto target. )uch a public statement ma9 simpl9 be a ne1otiatin1 tacticD but the 5ussian hot air sur&lus could Juic3l; be e)&ended in the <ace o< continued economic e)&ansion. .ore 1enerall9D 0ussian concerns about 89oto inhibitin1
its :uture economic 1rowth appear to be a serious reason :or its apparent reluctant to Nuic-l9 rati:9 89oto. 0ussian rati:ication is no 1uarantee o: 89oto success. 89oto is on a path to :ail to meet its G>G re,uction tar1ets with or without 0ussia. <his :ailure will necessitate a complete rethin-in1 o: the approach :or a,,ressin1 the 1lobal warmin1 issue.

Scholars

2: 0ussia stoppe, sellin1 permits because o: economic e pansionD the U) woul, become the primar9 seller 4c3ibben ., C+arwic-D )enior 7ellowD Global Econom9 an, De;elopmentD Brookin s InstituteD &une $"D
http:33www.broo-in1s.e,u3papers31$$"3%(ener19Hmc-ibbin.asp Frssi,GclimateVan,Vener19Veconomics I E<
.oreo;erD the U.). proposal woul, probabl9 not e;en achie;e the 1oal o: stabiliJin1 emissions. /ritainD German9D an, especiall9 5ussia are all alrea,9 below their 1..0 emission le=els and would be able to sell their unused &ermits abroad. 2n that case the permit s9stem woul, reall9 amount to nothin1 more than an elaborate accountin1 mechanism :or countin1 increases in emissions in countries li-e the Unite, )tates a1ainst the 1$$% allocation :or 0ussia. <here woul, be little or no o;erall re,uction. I< 5ussian economic growth begins to reco=erH the demand <or &ermits within 5ussia would increaseD sharpl9 dri=ing u& the world &rice o< &ermits. <his coul, a,, an ironic twist to an international permit polic9:
i<
5ussia were to grow Juic3l;H the !nited States could soon become the de=elo&ed worldGs low#cost emissions abater. In that case the !nited States would be a net seller o< &ermitsH and the rest o< the industrial world would end u& &a;ing it to reduce its emissions.
$nd using man; modelsH the !S will become the &rime &ermit seller 4c3ibben .. C+arwic-D )enior 7ellowD Global Econom9 an, De;elopmentD Brookin s Institute$7eb $$D
http:33www.broo-in1s.e,u3papers31$$$3%21lobaleconomicsHmc-ibbin.asp I E< +e use an econometricall;#estimated multi#regionH multi#sector 1eneral eNuilibrium model o< the world econom; to e)amine the e<<ects o< using a s;stem o< internationall;#tradable emissions &ermits to control world carbon ,io i,e emissions. +e :ocusD in particularD on the e::ects o: the s9stem on :lows o: tra,e an, international capital. =ur results show that international trade and ca&ital <lows si1ni:icantl9 alter &roLections o< the domestic e<<ects o< emissions mitigation &olic9D compare, with anal9ses that i1nore international capital :lowsD an, that under some s9stems o: international &ermit trading the !nited States is li3el; to become a signi<icant &ermit sellerH the opposite o: the con;entional wis,om.
$nd La&an is under &ressure to meet their :;oto goals# without &ermitsH the; can0t meet them 6ies - CElaineD Eournalist D Reuters$ :eb. 1%-#D http:33u-.reuters.com3article3i,U8<2(3"2$2%%#%21% I E<
/a&an is the worldGs <i<th#biggest emitter o< greenhouse gases blamed <or global warming D an, while o<<icials ha=e &ledged to meet its obligations under the international &act to :i1ht 1lobal warmin1D critics sa9 this ma; be di<<icult. &apanese 7orei1n .inister .asahi-o 8omura an, 5ussian 9irst De&ut; 8remier )er1ei 2;ano; agreed in a meeting on the si,elines o: a .unich con:erence that the :irst roun, o: ;ice-ministerial tal-s on the issue woul, be hel, on 7ebruar9 2" in <o-9oD &a&anese o<<icials were Juoted b; :;odo news agenc; as sa;ing. )eparatel9D the Bomiuri )himbun ,ail9 sai, the tal3s aimed at reaching a deal under which /a&an would bu; sur&lus emissions Juotas <rom 5ussiaH a 3e; ste& towar,s helpin1 <o-9o meet its :;oto goals. <he tra,in1 coul, ta-e place
un,er se;eral options possible un,er the 89oto 6rotocolD inclu,in1 one in which &apan -- one o: the worl,Ls most ener19-e::icient nations -- ta-es part in wor- to re,uce 0ussian emissions an, then is allowe, to count that cut as its ownD the Bomiuri a,,e,. =::icials at the En;ironment an, 7orei1n .inistries were not a;ailable :or comment. /a&an has &ledged to cut emissions b; + &ercent <rom 1..0 le=els o;er the 2%%#-2%12 perio,. $ go=ernment &anel said in December that /a&an would be able to reach its goals i< additional measuresD such as e tra ;oluntar9 a1reements with in,ustriesD are carrie, out. <he Unite, )tatesD ChinaD 2n,ia an, 0ussia all emit more 1reenhouse 1ases than &apanD but o< the to& <i=e emitting nationsH onl;
/a&an is under &ressure to meet a :;oto goal.

Scholars

2: Eapan loo-s li-e it isn't 1oin1 to meet its 89oto 1oals it will shorten inspection times o: nuclear reactors $rita ( CEri-oD &apan <imes sta:: writerD the Ja+an TimesD http:33search.Eapantimes.co.Ep3c1ibin3nn2%%4%(1#:1.html D (.1#.4I E<
Bet <actors
such as local o&&osition and relati=el; slac3 growth in electricit; demand ha=e dela;ed the construction o< new nuclear reactorsH Leo&ardizing the go=ernmentGs care:ull9 cra:te, &lans to meet its :;oto 8rotocol target o: trimmin1 emissions b9 ( percent :rom 1$$% le;els between 2%%# an, 2%12. <he 1o;ernment now sa9s that onl; <our new reactors are li3el; to be built b; <iscal 2010H whereas pre;ious proEections ha, put the :i1ure at as man9 as 13. >his scenario will probabl9 lead to a rise in thermal &ower generation using <ossil <uelsD boosting carbon ,io i,e emissions b; an additional 20 million to '0 million tons b9 :iscal 2%1%D accor,in1 to 1o;ernment ,ata. 2n an e::ort to counteract thisD the En;ironment .inistr9 propose, in April that &apan pro,uce thermal
ener19 b9 ma-in1 better use o: natural 1asD which releases 4% percent less carbon ,io i,e than coal. Boshiteru )a-a1uchiD assistant hea, o: the ministr9Ls Climate Chan1e 6olic9 Di;isionD sai, that 1$.2 million tons o: carbon ,io i,e emissions can be cut b9 :iscal 2%1% i< the o&eration rate o< natural
gas thermal &ower &lants is raised <rom the current *0.' &ercent to *..' &ercent and that o< &ower &lants &owered b; coal is cut <rom the current +(.' &ercent to *0.1 &ercent. K2n &apanD nuclear power an, coal thermal power plants operate aroun, the
cloc-K as core power suppliersD )a-a1uchi e plaine,. K/ut in /ritainD it is the natural 1as thermal power plants that operate all ,a9.K /ritainLs carbon ,io i,e emissions ,roppe, " percent in 2%%% compare, with 1$$% le;elsD accor,in1 to the Unite, *ations 7ramewor- Con;ention on Climate Chan1e. )a-a1uchi sai, this ,ecline was helpe, b9 the 1reater role pla9e, b9 1as. >owe;erD the .inistr9 o: Econom9D >rade and Industr; suggested earlier this
month that the e)&ected short<all in emissions cuts should be co=ered b; im&ro=ing the o&eration rate o< e)isting nuclear reactors b; shortening the &eriod in which o&erations are halted <or re1ular ins&ections.
/a&an has *2 nuclear reactors that are all instable# less ins&ection would be a massi=e mista3e 4oret ( C4eurenD )pecial reporter P &apan <imesD Ja+an Times$ !.23.4D http:33search.Eapantimes.co.Ep3c1ibin3:l2%%4%!23 2.html I E<
?< all the &laces in all the worl, where no one in their right mind would build scores o< nuclear &ower &lantsH /a&an would be prett9 near the to& o< the list. An aerial ;iew o: the >amao-a plant in )hiJuo-a 6re:ectureD Kthe most ,an1erous nuclear power plant in &apanK <he &apanese archipela1o is locate, on the so-calle, 6aci:ic 0im o: 7ireD a lar1e acti;e ;olcanic an, tectonic Jone rin1in1 *orth an, )outh AmericaD Asia an, islan, arcs in )outheast Asia. <he maEor earthNua-es an, acti;e ;olcanoes occurrin1 there are cause, b9 the westwar, mo;ement o: the 6aci:ic tectonic plate an, other plates lea,in1 to sub,uction un,er Asia. /a&an sits on to& o< <our tectonic &latesH at the edge o< the subduction zoneH and is in one o< the most tectonicall; acti=e regions o< the world . 2t was e)treme &ressures and tem&eraturesH resulting <rom the ;iolent plate mo=ements beneath the sea:loorD that created the beauti:ul islan,s an, ;olcanoes o: /a&an. *onethelessD li-e man9 countries aroun, the worl, -- where General Electric an, +estin1house ,esi1ns are use, in #! percent o: all commercial reactors -- &apan has turne, to nuclear power as a maEor ener19 source. 2n :act the three top nuclear-ener19 countries are the Unite, )tatesD where the e istence o: 11# reactors was ac-nowle,1e, b9 the Department o: Ener19 in 2%%%D 7rance with "2 an, &apanD where !2 acti;e reactors were cite, in a December 2%%3 Cabinet +hite 6aper. >he *2 reactors in /a&an #- which 1enerate a little o;er 3% percent o: its electricit9 ## are located in an area the size o< Cali<orniaH man9 within 1*0 3m o< each other and almost all built along the coast where seawater is a;ailable to cool them. >owe;erD man9 o: those reactors ha=e been negligentl; sited on acti=e <aultsD particularl9 in the subduction zone alon1 the 6aci:ic coastD where maLor earthJua3es o< magnitude ,#- or more on the 5ichter scale occur <reJuentl;. <he perio,icit9 o: maEor earthNua-es in &apan is less than 1% 9ears. <here is almost no 1eolo1ic settin1 in the worl, more ,an1erous :or nuclear power than &apan -- the thir,-ran-e, countr9 in the worl, :or nuclear reactors. K2 thin- the situation ri1ht now is ;er9 scar9DK sa9s 8atsuhi-o 2shibashiD a seismolo1ist an, pro:essor at 8obe Uni;ersit9. KItGs li3e a 3ami3aze terrorist wra&&ed in bombs Lust waiting to e)&lode.I 4ast summerD 2 ;isite, >amao-a nuclear power plant in )hiJuo-a 6re:ectureD at the reNuest o: citiJens concerne, about the ,an1er o: a maEor earthNua-e. 2 spo-e about m9 :in,in1s at press con:erences a:terwar,. Because @amao3a sits directl; o=er the subduction zone near the Eunction o: two platesD and is o=erdue <or a maLor earthJua3eH it is considered to be the most dangerous nuclear &ower &lant in /a&an . <o1ether with local citiJensD 2 spent the ,a9 wal-in1 aroun, the :acilit9D collectin1 roc-sD stu,9in1 the so:t se,iments it sits on an, tracin1 the nearl9 ;ertical :aults throu1h the area -- e;i,ence o: ;iolent tectonic mo;ements. <he ne t ,a9 2 was surprise, to see so man9 reporters atten,in1 the two press con:erences hel, at 8a-e1awa Cit9 >all an, )hiJuo-a 6re:ecture >all. +hen 2 as-e, the reporters wh9 the9 ha, come so :ar :rom <o-9o to hear an American 1eoscientistD 2 was tol, it was because no <oreigner had e=er come to tell them how dangerous /a&anGs nuclear &ower &lants are.

Scholars

An, a nuclear reactor collapse causes apocal9ptic e tinction 2asserman 2 C>ar;e9D )enior E,itor A 7ree 6ressD 1arth Island JournalD )prin1 2%%2D http:33www.earthislan,.or13Eournal3in,e .php3eiE3article3nuclearHpowerHan,Hterrorism3 I E<
<he intense radioacti=e heat within toda;Gs operatin1 reactors is the hottest an;where on the &lanet. /ecause 2n,ian 6oint has operate, so lon1D its accumulated radioacti=e burden <ar e)ceeds that o< Chernob;l. >he sa<et; s;stems are e)tremel; com&le) and ;irtuall9 inde<ensible. ?ne or more could be wi&ed out with a small aircra<tH 1roun,-base, weaponsD truc- bombs or e;en chemical3biolo1ical assaults aime, at the wor- :orce. A terrorist assault at 2n,ian 6oint could ;ield three in<ernal <ireballs o< molten radioacti=e la=a burning through the earth and into the aJui<er and the ri=er. )tri-in1 waterD the; would blast gigantic billows o< horribl; radioacti=e steam into the atmos&her e. <housan,s o: sNuare miles woul, be saturate, with the most lethal clou,s e;er create,D ,epositin1 relentless 1enetic poisons that woul, -ill :ore;er. In<ants and small children would Juic3l; die en masse. 6re1nant women would s&ontaneousl; abort or gi=e birth to horribl; de<ormed o<<s&ring. Ghastl; soresH rashesH ulcerations and burns would a<<lict the s3in o< millions. >eart attac-sD stro-e an, multiple organ <ailure would 3ill thousands on the s&ot. Emph9semaD hair lossD nauseaD inabilit9 to eat or ,rin- or swallowD ,iarrhea an, incontinenceD sterilit9 an, impotenceD asthma an, blin,ness woul, a::lict hun,re,s o: thousan,sD i: not millions. >hen comes the wa=e o< cancersH leu3emiasH l;m&homasH tumors an, hellish ,iseases :or which new names will ha;e to be in;ente,. E=acuation would be im&ossibleD but thousands would die tr;ing. Attempts to Nuench the :ires woul, be :utile. .ore than #%%D%%% )o;iet ,ra:tees :orce, throu1h Chernob9lLs seethin1 remains in a :utile attempt to clean it up are still ,9in1 :rom their e posure. At 2n,ian 6ointD the molten cores would burn uncontrolled <or da;sH wee3s and ;ears. +ho woul, ;olunteer :or such an American tas- :orceF <he immediate damage :rom an 2n,ian 6oint attac- Cor a ,omestic acci,entI would render all :i;e borou1hs o: 1ew Dor3 Cit; an a&ocal;&tic wasteland. As at <hree .ile 2slan,D where thousan,s o: :arm an, wil, animals ,ie, in heapsD natural ecos;stems would be &ermanentl; and irre=ocabl; destro;ed. )pirituall9D ps9cholo1icall9D :inanciall9 an, ecolo1icall9D our nation would ne=er reco=er. <his is what we misse, b9 a mere 4% miles on )eptember 11. *ow that we are at warD this is what coul, be happenin1 as 9ou rea, this. <here are 1%3 o: these potential /ombs o: the Apocal9pse operatin1 in the U). <he9 1enerate a mere # percent o: our total ener19. )ince its ,ere1ulation crisisD Cali:ornia cut its electric consumption b9 some 1! percent. +ithin a 9earD the U) coul, cheapl9 replace ;irtuall9 all the reactors with increase, e::icienc9. BetD as the terror escalatesD Con1ress is :asttrac-in1 the e tension o: the 6rice-An,erson ActD a :orm o: le1al immunit9 that protects reactor operators :rom liabilit9 in case o: a melt,own or terrorist attac-. Do we ta-e this war seriousl9F Are we committe, to the sur;i;al o: our nationF 2: soD the tic3ing reactor bombs that could obliterate the =er; core o< our li<e and o< all <uture generations must be shut ,own

Scholars
Im&acts# Econ Bad# 5ussia# $rms Buildu&

+hen 0ussia e periences economic 1rowth the9 bu9 more arms to increase their militar9 in:luence Saradzh;an - C)imonD research :ellow P >ar;ar,D !ar&are3R)D http:33war:are.ru3Flin-i,G22"$@cati,G23$ I E<
<here are car,inal chan1es in what is 1oin1 on in the worl, an, the arme, :orces nee, to be prepare, :or W^X wars o: the :utureDK accor,in1 to the ministerD who also hol,s the ran- o: ,eput9 prime minister an, is one o: the possible contesters in the 2%%# presi,ential race. 2n line with the De:ense .inistr9Ls 2%%"-2%1! armament pro1ramD the 5ussian militar; will s&end a total o< '00
billion rubles on &rocurement this ;ear aloneH according to I=ano=. 5ussiaGs de<ense budget has been growing steadil; than3s to economic growth :uelle, b9 hi1h oil prices an, a consumer boom. $s a result o< the surge in <ederal budget re=enuesD the De<ense 4inistr; Juadru&led its budget <rom 21( billion rubles in 2001 to -21 billion this ;ear. E perts sa9 the De<ense 4inistr;Gs sho&&ing s&ree re<lects the :remlinGs desire to trans<orm the continuing economic resurgence into geo&olitical di=idends b; bee<ing u& con=entional <orces while maintainin1 the strate1ic nuclear :orcesL so-calle, assure, ,estruction capabilit9 o: in or,er to <le) muscles in the adLacent neighborhoods in the short-to-me,ium term and across the globe in the longer term. K<he procurement plan ,emonstrates that 5ussia at least wants to acJuire ca&abilit; to &roLect militar;# &olitical in<luence at least on the regional le=el W..XDK 0uslan 6u-ho;D ,irector o: the Centre :or Anal9sis o: )trate1ies an,
<echnolo1ies CCA)<I an, member o: the De:ense .inistr9Ls 6ublic CouncilD tol, 2)* )ecurit9 +atch in a )atur,a9 phone inter;iew. 2;an )a:ranchu-D ,irector o: the .oscow o::ice o: the +ashin1tonD DC-base, +orl, )ecurit9 2nstituteD concurre,. K<his is a si1n that 0ussia wants to e pan, proEection o: its in:luence in the worl,D K )a:ranchu- tol, 2)* )ecurit9 +atch in a +e,nes,a9 phone inter;iew. <he e perts speci:icall9 pointe, out that tal- o: procurin1 new aircra:t carriers was one si1n that 0ussia was see-in1 to e pan, its Jone o: in:luence. <he ,ecision to procure more coul, be ma,e in 2%%$D the statement Nuote, 2;ano; as sa9in1. <he 0ussian na;9 currentl9 has one )o;iet-era aircra:t carrier an, woul, ha;e to buil, new ones :rom scratch since the sole ma-er o: this ship in )o;iet times is locate, in now-in,epen,ent U-raine. As part o: the shoppin1 spreeD the militar9 will procure a total o: 31 ships :or the na;9 in 2%%"2%1!D accor,in1 to 2;ano;. <he ministr9 will also procure new arms :or 4% tan-sD $" in:antr9 an, !% airborne battalions in line with the 2%%"-2%1" pro1ramsD he sai,.
$nd increased arms in 5ussia would embolden other enemies to attac3 the us# causes global war and crashes !S heg SimesH , CDimitriD 6res o: *i on centerD pub o: *at'l 2nterestD Forei n A&&airs$ no;3,ec "I E<
/ut i: the current U.).-0ussian relationship ,eteriorates :urtherD it will not bo,e well :or the Unite, )tates an, woul, be e;en worse :or 0ussia. >he 5ussian general staZ is lobb;ing to add a militar; dimension to the Shanghai Coo&eration ?rganizationH an, some top o::icials are be1innin1 to champion the i,ea o: a :orei1n polic9 reali1nment ,irecte, a1ainst the +est. <here are also Nuite a :ew countriesD such as 2ran an, ?eneJuelaD ur1in1 0ussia to wor- with China to pla9 a lea,in1 role in balancin1 the Unite, )tates economicall9D politicall9D an, militaril9. An, post-)o;iet states such as Geor1iaD which are a,ept at pla9in1 the Unite, )tates an, 0ussia o::icials a1ainst each otherD coul, act in wa9s that escalate tensions. 6utin's sta1e mana1ement o: .oscow's succession in or,er to maintain a ,ominant role :or himsel: ma-es a maEor :orei1n polic9 shi:t in 0ussia unli-el9. /ut new 0ussian lea,ers coul, ha;e their own i,easSan, their own ambitionsSan, political uncertaint9 or economic problems coul, tempt them to e ploit nationalist sentiments to buil, le1itimac9. 2: relations worsenD the un )ecurit9 Council ma9 no lon1er be a;ailableS,ue to a 0ussian ;etoS e;en occasionall9D to pro;i,e le1itimac9 :or U.). militar9 actions or to impose meanin1:ul sanctions on ro1ue states. Enemies o< the !nited States could be emboldened b; new sources o< militar; hardware in 5ussiaH an, &olitical and securit; &rotection <rom 4oscow. 2nternational terrorists coul, :in, new sanctuaries in 0ussia or the states it protects.An, the collapse o: U.).- 0ussian relations coul, 1i;e China much 1reater :le ibilit9 in ,ealin1 with the Unite, )tates. It would not be a new Cold 2arH because 5ussia will not be a global ri=al and is unli3el; to be the &rime mo=er in con:rontin1 the Unite, )tates. /ut it would &ro=ide incenti=es and co=er <or others to con<ront 2ashingtonH with &otentiall; catastro&hic results. 2t woul, be rec-less an, shortsi1hte, to push 0ussia in that ,irection b9 repeatin1 the errors o: the pastD rather than wor-in1 to a;oi, the ,an1erous conseNuences o: a renewe, U.).0ussian con:rontation. /ut ultimatel9D.oscow will ha;e to ma-e its own ,ecisions.Gi;en the 8remlin's histor9 o: poor polic9 choicesD a clash ma; come whether 2ashington li3es it or not.An, shoul, that happenD the Unite, )tates must approach this ri;alr9 with 1reater realism an, ,etermination than it has ,ispla9e, in its hal:hearte, attempts at partnership.

Scholars
Im&acts# Econ Bad# 5ussia# $rms Buildu&

$nd 5ussia s&ends e=er; &enn; the; can <rom their budget on arms# economic growth increases use 2ar<are.5u . C!are&are3RuD http:33war:are.ru3Flan1G@lin-i,G22"$@cati,G23$ D $I E<
A 1o;ernment o::icial sai, there woul, also be more short-ran1e missilesD combat planesD helicoptersD tan-s an, na;al ;essels. 2n allD 5ussia will s&end nearl; K1(0bn CF$4.!bnI on bu;ing arms. 5ussia &lans a massi=e increase in its wea&ons &rocurement :or three 9ears be1innin1 in 2%%$D with 3%% tan-sD 14 warships an, almost !% airplanes on the shoppin1 listD a senior 1o;ernment o::icial sai, on .on,a9. ?la,isla; 6utilinD ,eput9 hea, o: the militar9-in,ustrial commissionD tol, Eournalists a:ter a cabinet meetin1 the go=ernment &lanned to allocate ( trillion roubles CO141.! billionIin 2%%$-11 to ban-roll eNuipment purchases to mo,erniJe its arm9. 6utilin sai, that o;er the three-9ear perio, 0ussiaLs arme, :orces woul, recei;e more than 4%% new t9pes o: weaponsD inclu,in1 4# aircra:tD si sp9 ,ronesD (% helicoptersD 14 warshipsD 3%% tan-s an, more than 2D%%% auto ;ehicles.

Scholars
Im&acts# Econ Bad# SE $sia $rms Build u&

South asian countries use militar; growth to increase arms including missiles and Lets Global militar; 10 C 3.1".1%D 2lobal 'ilitar" NewsD http:33www.1lobal-militar9.com3southeast-asian-countriesto-purchase-weapons-an,-the-possibilit9-o:-war-1reatl9-increase,-the-south-china-sea.htmlI E< A report :rom the )toc-holm 2nternational 6eace 0esearch 2nstitute's report on the securit9 situation in )outh AsiaD causin1 the rele;ant :orei1n me,ia reports. /ritish T7inancial <imesQ reporte, that China's militar9 riseD the South $sian countries ha=e increased their armamentsH large#scale im&orts o< modern wea&ons. <he 0euters news a1enc9 pre,icts that due to recentl; ,isco;ere, in the )outh >e9 marine resourcesH ma3ing the con<lict bro3e out between the countries concerned the &ossibilit; o< greatl; increased dramaticall; in some countries to bu; modern wea&onsH but also nei1hborin1 countries an, e;en cause, a chain reaction throu1hout the re1ion. /ritain's T7inancial <imesQ publishe, on .arch 1! article sai, that the )toc-holm 2nternational 6eace 0esearch 2nstitute C)2602I Arms <rans:ers 6roEect senior research :ellow )imon A +eiJmann 2nstitute C)iemon +eJemanI .ilitar9 anal9sts ha;e warne, that China is 1rowin1 mo,erniJation o: militar9 :orcesD nei1hborin1 )outheast Asian countries ha;e increase, in;estment in national ,e:ense an, procurement. 2n recent 9earsD some Southeast $sian countries in recent ;earsH MsubstantialO to bu; ad=anced submarinesH <ighter Lets and long#range missilesH its aim is to &ossible <uture rain; da; con<lict in the South China SeaD the re1ion's territorial ,isputes are li-el9 to e;ol;e into a war. >e sai,: TAlthou1h the )outheast Asian countries ha;e not publicl9 e presse, concerns about China's militar9 buil,upD but the9 are thou1ht to this issueD an, are use, to purchase a,;ance, weapons an, wa9s to e press their position. 1! 9ears a1oD in the )outh China )eaD the same con:lictin1 timeD these countries ,o not ha;e the abilit9 to compete. *owD i: someone in the area an, attac- these :iel,sD thin1s will become ;er9 ,an1erous. Q.an9 )outheast Asian countries because o: the arme, :orces resi1ne, to the 1$$" Asian :inancial crisis le, to the situation o: militar9 eNuipment behin, the buil,in1D in the recent economic u&turn began to ha=e to bu; arms. Accor,in1 to the articleD althou1h these countries to bu9 a,;ance, weapons :rom the ,ri;in1 :orce is the ,omesticD re1ional an, more strate1ic consi,erationsD most national 1o;ernmentsD an, not ,irectl9 b9 name China as a ,irect tar1et
$rms race in asia threatens e)tinction 9e<<er - C&ohnD co ,irector o: :orei1n polic9 in :ocus P 2nstitute :or polic9 stu,iesD 3.1$.#D Asia Paci&ic JournalD
http:33www.Eapan:ocus.or13-&ohn-7e::er32"%4I E< <he arms race in 1ortheast $sia and the $sia 8aci<ic threatens to o=erwhelm all tal3 o< &eace in the region. 1ortheast $sia is where <our o< the worldGs largest militar; <orces -- those o: the Unite, )tatesD ChinaD 0ussiaD an, &apanD three o: them lea,in1 nuclear powers ## con<ront each other C in a,,ition to the two 8oreas that sit astri,e the most dangerous <lash &oint. >ogetherD the countries participatin1 in the )i 6art9 <al-s account :or appro imatel9 (!R o: worl, militar9 e pen,ituresD with the Unite, )tates responsible :or rou1hl9 hal: the 1lobal total.

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Im&acts# Econ Bad# SE $sia $rms Build u&

>hese arms races will go nuclear and reignite con<licts in India and 8a3istanH :oreaH and >aiwan leading to e)tinction Cirincione 23 C&osephD presi,ent o: 6lou1hshares 7un,D Forei n Polic"D 3.22.%%I E<
>he bloc3s would <all Juic3est and hardest in $siaD where proli:eration pressures are alrea,9 buil,in1 more Nuic-l9 than an9where else in the worl,. I< a nuclear brea3out ta3es &lace in $siaH then the international arms control a1reements that ha;e been painsta-in1l9 ne1otiate, o;er the past 4% 9ears will crumble. .oreo;erD the !nited States could <ind itsel< embroiled in its :ourth war on the Asian continent in si ,eca,es--a costl9 rebu-e to those who see- the sa:et9 o: 7ortress America b9 hi,in1 behin, national missile ,e:enses. Consi,er what is alrea,9 happenin1: *orth 8orea continues to pla9 1uessin1 1ames with its nuclear an, missile pro1ramsU )outh 8orea wants its own missiles to match 69on19an1LsU 2n,ia an, 6a-istan shoot across bor,ers while runnin1 a slow-motion nuclear arms raceU China mo,erniJes its nuclear arsenal ami, tensions with <aiwan an, the Unite, )tatesU &apanLs ;ice ,e:ense minister is :orce, to resi1n a:ter e tollin1 the bene:its o: nuclear weaponsU an, 0ussia--whose 7ar East nuclear ,eplo9ments alone ma-e it the lar1est Asian nuclear power--stru11les to maintain territorial coherence. 7i;e o: these states ha;e nuclear weaponsU the others are capable o: constructin1 them. 6i3e neutrons <iring <rom a s&lit atomH one nationGs actions can trigger reactions throughout the regionH which in turnD stimulate a,,itional actions. >hese nations <orm an interloc3ing $sian nuclear reaction chain that =ibrates dangerousl; with each new de=elo&ment. 2: the :reNuenc9 an, intensit9 o: this reaction c9cle increaseH critical decisions ta3en b; an; one o< these go=ernments could cascade into the second great wa=e o< nuclear#wea&on &roli<erationH bringing regional and global economic and &olitical instabilit; andH &erha&sH the <irst combat use o< a nuclear wea&on since 1.(*.

Scholars
Growth Good

Scholars
Im&acts# Econ Good# E)tinction

Economic colla&se causes nuclear war# e)tinction Broward . CC.ember o: <rion,I http:33news:la;or.com3opinions3will-an-economic-collapse--ill-9ou3 AD: "-"-%$
IE< 1ow its time to loo3 at the conseJuences o< a <ailing world econom;. 2ith <i=e o<<ical nations ha=ing nuclear wea&onsH and <our more li3el; to ha=e them there could be maLor conseJuences o< another world war. >he <irst thing that will ha&&en a<ter an economic colla&se will be war o=er resources. <he Unite, )tates currenc9 will become useless an, will ha;e no wa9 o: securin1 reser;es. <he Unite, )tates has little to no capacit9 to pro,uce oilD it is totatll9 ,epen,ent on :orei1n oil. I< the !nited States sto&&ed getting <oreign oilH the go=ernment would go to no ends to secure moreH i< there were a war with an; other maLor &ower o=er oilH li3e 5ussia or ChinaH these wars would most li3el; in=ol=e nuclear wea&ons. ?nce one nation launches a nuclear wea&onH there would o< course be retaliationH and with <i=e or more countries with nuclear wea&ons there would most li3el; be a world nuclear war. >he ris3 is so high that acting to sa=e the econom; is the most im&ortant issue <acing us in the 21st centur;.
Economic colla&se would lead to the s&read o< $IDsH <amineH sic3nessH crimeH and cause global ethnic wars leading to the e)tinction o< ci=ilization. Sil3 .' C 4eonar,D 6ro: o: Econ P 6ace U, Forei n A&&airs, +ntr ;"2 n1 p1("C1(I.I E<
2n the absence o: such shi:ts o: human an, capital resources to e pan,in1 ci;ilian in,ustriesD there are strong economic &ressures on arms-pro,ucin1 nations to maintain high le=els o< militar; &roduction and to sell wea&onsH both con=entional and dual#use nuclear technolog;H where=er bu;ers can be <ound. +ithout a re;i;al o: national economies an, the 1lobal econom9D the pro,uction an, proli:eration o: weapons will continueD creatin1 more 2raNsD Bu1osla;iasD )omalias an, Cambo,ias - or worse. 4i-e the Great DepressionD the current economic slump has :anne, the :ires o: nationalistD ethnic an, reli1ious hatre, aroun, the worl,. Economic hardshi& is not the onl; cause o< these social and &olitical &athologiesH but it aggra=ates all o< themH and in turn the; <eed bac3 on economic de=elo&ment . >he; also undermine e<<orts to deal with such global &roblems as en=ironmental &ollutionH the &roduction and tra<<ic3ing o< drugsH crimeH sic3nessH <amineH $IDS and other &lagues. Growth will not sol;e all those problems b9 itsel: /ut economic growth - an, 1rowth alone - creates the additional resources that ma3e it &ossible to achie=e such <undamental goals as higher li=ing standardsH national and collecti=e securit;H a healthier en=ironmentH and more liberal and o&en economies and societies .

Scholars
Im&acts# Econ Good# E)tinction

Economic collapse culminates in e tinction an, complete ,estruction o: the biosphere Bearden 23 C4iutenant ColonelD 4ieutenant Colonel in the U.). Arm9D
www.cheniere.or13techpapers3Unnecessar9R2%Ener19R2%Crisis.,ocI E< /luntl9D we :oresee these :actors - an, others _ ` not co;ere, - con;er1in1 to a catastrophic collapse o: the worl, econom9 in about ei1ht 9ears. As the collapse o: the +estern economies nearsD one ma9 e pect catastrophic stress on the 1(% ,e;elopin1 nations as the ,e;elope, nations are :orce, to ,ramaticall9 curtail or,ers. 2nternational )trate1ic <hreat Aspects >istor9 bears out that des&erate nations ta3e des&erate actions. 8rior to the <inal economic colla&seH the stress on nations will ha=e increased the intensit9 an, number o: their con:lictsD to the point where the arsenals o: weapons o: mass ,estruction C24DI now possesse, b9 some 2! nationsD are almost certain to be release,. As an e ampleD suppose a star;in1 *orth 8orea launches nuclear weapons upon &apan an, )outh 8oreaD inclu,in1 U.). :orces thereD in a spasmo,ic suici,al response. =r suppose a ,esperate China - whose lon1 ran1e nuclear missiles can reach the Unite, )tates - attac-s <aiwan. 2n a,,ition to imme,iate responsesD the mutual treaties in=ol=ed in such scenarios will Juic3l; draw other nations into the con<lictH escalating it signi<icantl;. )trate1ic nuclear stu,ies ha;e shown :or ,eca,es thatD un,er such e treme stress con,itionsD once a <ew nu3es are launchedH ad=ersaries and &otential ad=ersaries are then com&elled to launch on &erce&tion o< &re&arations b; oneGs ad=ersar;. <he real le1ac9 o: the .AD concept is his si,e o: the .AD coin that is almost ne;er ,iscusse,. +ithout e::ecti;e ,e:enseD the onl9 chance a nation has to sur;i;e at allD is to launch imme,iate :ull-bore preempti;e stri-es an, tr9 to ta-e out its percei;e, :oes as rapi,l9 an, massi;el9 as possible. As the stu,ies showe,D rapi, escalation to :ull +.D e chan1e occursD with a 1reat percent o: the +.D arsenals bein1 unleashe, . >he resulting great $rmageddon will destro; ci=ilization as we 3now itH and perhaps most o: the bios&hereD at least :or man9 ,eca,es.

Scholars
Im&acts# Econ Good# 2ar

Continued economic colla&se will e)acerbate tensions in $sia C China ma; regress to a 1.'0s /a&an#st;le go=ernanceH and 1orth :orea and Iran will ad=ance their interests with loose nu3es GreenH . C.ichael &.D )enior A,;isor an, &apan Chair at the Center :or )trate1ic an, 2nternational )tu,ies CC)2)I
an, Associate 6ro:essor at Geor1etown Uni;ersit9. Asia <imes =nlineD T.arch 2( 2%%$. http:33www.atimes.com3atimes3AsianHEconom938C2(D-%1.html AD (33%3%$I &. 7acin1 the worst economic crisis since the Great DepressionD anal;sts at the 2orld Ban3 and the U) Central Intelli1ence $1enc9 are Lust beginning to contem&late the rami<ications <or international stabilit; i< there is not a reco=er; in the ne)t ;ear. 7or the most partD the :ocus has been on :ra1ile states such as some in Eastern Europe. >owe;erD the Great De&ression taught us that a downward global economic s&iral can e=en ha=e Larring im&acts on great &owers. It is no mere coincidence that the last great global economic downturn was <ollowed b; the most destructi=e war in human histor;. In the 1.'0sH economic des&eration hel&ed <uel autocratic regimes and &rotectionism in a ,ownwar, economic-securit9 ,eath spiral that en1ul:e, the worl, in con:lict. <his spiral was
ai,e, b9 the preoccupation o: the Unite, )tates an, other lea,in1 nations with economic troubles at home an, insu::icient attention to wor-in1 with other powers to maintain stabilit9 abroa,. <o,a9Ls challen1es are ,i::erentD 9et 1$33Ls 4on,on Economic Con:erenceD which :aile, to stop the ,ri:t towar, ,eeper ,epression an, worl, warD shoul, be a cautionar9 tale :or lea,ers hea,in1 to ne t monthLs 4on,on Group o: 2% CG-2%I meetin1. >here is no Juestion the !S must urgentl; act to a,,ress ban-in1 issues an, to restart its econom;. /ut the lessons o: the past su11est that we will also ha;e to -eep an e9e on those :ra1ile threa,s in the international s9stem that coul, be1in to unra;el i: the :inancial crisis is not re;erse, earl9 in the /arac- =bama a,ministration an, realiJe that economics an, securit9 are intertwine, in most o: the critical challen1es we :ace. A ,isillusione, risin1 powerF 9our areas in $sia merit &articular attentionD althou1h so :ar the current :inancial crisis has not chan1e, AsiaLs :un,amental strate1ic picture. China is not replacin1 the U) as re1ional he1emonD since the lea,ership in /eiEin1 is too ner;ous about the political implications o: the :inancial crisis at home to actuall9 pla9 a lea,in1 role in sol;in1 it internationall9. 6re,ictions that the U) will be brou1ht to its -nees because China is the lea,in1 hol,er o: U) ,ebt o:ten miss -e9 points. ChinaLs currenc9 controls an, :ull emplo9ment3e port-oriente, 1rowth strate19 1i;e /eiEin1 :ew choices other than bu9in1 U) <reasur9 bills or harmin1 its own econom9. 0ather than creatin1 new rules or institutions in international :inanceD or reorientin1 the Chinese econom9 to 1enerate 1reater lon1-term consumer ,eman, at homeD Chinese lea,ers are ,esperatel9 clin1in1 to the status Nuo Cthou1h /eiEin1 ,eser;es cre,it :or short-term e::orts to stimulate economic 1rowthI. >he greater danger with China is not an ecli&sing o< !S leadershi&H but
instead the 3ind o< shi<t in strategic orientation that ha&&ened to /a&an a<ter the Great De&ression.
&apan was ar1uabl9 not a re;isionist power be:ore 1$32 an, sou1ht instea, to con;er1e with the 1lobal econom9 throu1h open tra,e an, a,option o: the 1ol, stan,ar,. >he worldwide de&ression and &rotectionism o< the 1.'0s de=astated the newl; e)&osed /a&anese econom; and contributed directl; to militaristic and autar3ic &olicies in Asia as the &apanese people reacte, a1ainst what counte, :or 1lobaliJation at the time. China toda; is similarl; con=erging with the global econom;D an, man9 e perts belie;e China nee,s at least #R annual 1rowth to sustain social stabilit9. 0ealistic 1rowth pre,ictions :or 2%%$ are closer to !R. ?eteran China han,s were watchin1 closel9 when millions o: mi1rant wor-ers returne, to wora:ter the 4unar *ew Bear holi,a9 last month to :in, :actories close, an, Eobs 1one. <here were poc-ets o: protestsD but nationwi,e unrest seems unli-el9 this 9earD an, Chinese lea,ers are wor-in1 aroun, the cloc- to ensure that it ,oes not happen ne t 9ear either. >owe;erD the economic slow,own has onl9 Eust be1un an, nobo,9 is certain how it will impact the social contract in China between the rulin1 communist part9 an, the 1.3 billion Chinese who ha;e come to see 6resi,ent >u &intaoLs call :or Kharmonious societ9K as ine tricabl9 lin-e, to his promise o: Kpeace:ul ,e;elopmentK. 2: the &apanese e ample is an9 prece,entD a sustaine, economic slow,own has the potential to open a ,an1erous path :rom economic nationalism to strate1ic re;isionism in China too. Dan1erous states It is
noteworth; that 1orth :oreaH 4;anmar and Iran ha=e all intensi<ied their de<iance in the wa3e o< the <inancial crisisD which has ,istracte, the worl,Ls lea,in1 nationsD limite, their moral authorit9 an, sown potential ,iscor,. +ith
/eiEin1 worrie, about the potential impact o: *orth 8orean belli1erence or instabilit9 on Chinese internal stabilit9D an, lea,ers in &apan an, )outh 8orea un,er sie1e in parliament because o: the collapse o: their stoc- mar-etsD leaders in the 1orth :orea n capital o: 69on19an1 ha=e grown increasingl; boisterous about their countr;Gs claims to great &ower status as a
nuclear wea&ons state. >he Lunta in 4;anmar has chosen this moment to arrest hundreds o< &olitical dissidents and thumb its nose at <ellow members o< the 1%-countr9 $ssociation o: Southeast $sian 1ations. Iran continues its nuclear &rogram while e)&loiting di<<erences between the !SH !: and 9rance Cor the 6-3
1roupI
[ContinuesW\

Scholars

[ContinuedW\
an, China an, 0ussia - ,i::erences that coul, become more pronounce, i: economic :riction with /eiEin1 or 0ussia crow,s out cooperation or i: +estern European 1o;ernments 1row ner;ous about sanctions as a tool o: polic9. It is &ossible that the economic downturn will ma3e these dangerous states more &liable because o: :allin1 :uel prices C2ranI an, 1reater nee, :or :orei1n ai, C*orth 8orea an, .9anmarID but that ma; de&end on the e)tent that authoritarian leaders care
about the well#being o< their &eo&le or <ace internal &olitical &ressures lin3ed to the econom;. So <arH there is little e=idence to suggest either and much e=idence to suggest these dangerous states see an o&&ortunit; to ad=ance their as;mmetrical ad=antages against the international s;stem.

Scholars

Economic growth actuall; chec3s war C em&iricall; &ro=en Griswold * CDaniel- Director o: Center :or <ra,e P Cato 2nstituteD Free Trade$ 12.2$.!D
http:33www.:reetra,e.or13no,e32#2I E<
.an9 causes lie behin, the 1oo, news -- the
end o< the Cold 2ar and the s&read o< democrac;H among them ## but e)&anding trade and globalization a&&ear to be &la;ing a maLor role. 7ar :rom sto-in1 a K+orl, on 7ireDK as one mis1ui,e, $merican author has arguedH growing commercial ties between nations ha=e had a dam&ening e<<ect on armed con<lict and warD :or three main reasons. 7irstD trade and globalization ha=e rein<orced the trend toward democrac;H and democracies donGt &ic3 <ights with each other. 9reedom to trade nurtures democrac; b; e)&anding the middle class in globalizing countries and eJui&&ing &eo&le with tools o< communication such as cell phonesD satellite <?D an, the 2nternet. +ith tra,e comes more tra;elD more contact with people in other countriesD an, more e posure to new i,eas. >han3s in part to globalizationH almost two thirds o< the worldGs countries toda; are democracies # - a recor, hi1h. )econ,D as national economies become more integrated with each otherH those nations ha=e more to lose should war brea3 out . +ar in a 1lobaliJe, worl, not onl9 means human casualties an, bi11er 1o;ernmentD but also ru&tured trade and in=estment ties that im&ose lasting damage on the econom;. In shortH globalization has dramaticall; raised the economic cost o< war. >hirdH globalization allows nations to acJuire wealth through &roduction and trade rather than conNuest o: territor9 an, resources. 2ncreasin1l9D wealth is measure, in terms o: intellectual propert9D :inancial assetsD an, human capital. <hose are assets that cannot be seiJe, b9 armies . I< &eo&le need resources outsi,e their national bor,ersD sa9 oil or timber or :arm pro,uctsD the; can acJuire them &eace<ull; b; trading awa; what the; can &roduce best at home. =: courseD :ree tra,e an, 1lobaliJation ,o not 1uarantee peace. >ot-bloo,e, nationalism an, i,eolo1ical :er;or can o;erwhelm col, economic calculations. /ut dee& trade and in=estment ties among nations ma3e war less attracti=e. <ra,e wars in the 1$3%s ,eepene, the economic ,epressionD e acerbate, 1lobal tensionsD an, helpe, to usher in a worl, war. =ut o: the ashes
o: that e perienceD the Unite, )tates ur1e, German9D 7rance an, other +estern European nations to :orm a common mar-et that has become the European Union. In large &art because o< their intertwined economiesH a general war in Euro&e is now unthin3able. In East
$siaH the e)tensi=e and growing economic ties among 4ainland ChinaH /a&anH South :oreaH and >aiwan is hel&ing to 3ee& the &eace. ChinaLs communist rulers ma9 9et ,eci,e to 1o to war o;er its Krene1a,e pro;inceDK but the economic cost to their econom; would be staggering and could &ro=o3e a bac3lash among its citizens. In contrastH &oor and isolated 1orth :orea is all the more dangerous because it has nothing to lose economicall; should it &ro=o3e a war. 2n Central
AmericaD countries that were rac-e, b9 1uerrilla wars an, ,eath sNua,s two ,eca,es a1o ha;e turne, not onl9 to ,emocrac9 but to e pan,in1 tra,eD culminatin1 in the Central American 7ree <ra,e A1reement with the Unite, )tates. As the )toc-holm institute reports in its 2%%! Bearboo-D K)ince the 1$#%sD the intro,uction o: a more open economic mo,el in most states o: the 4atin American an, Caribbean re1ion has been accompanie, b9 the 1rowth o: new re1ional structuresD the ,9in1 out o: interstate con:licts an, a re,uction in intra-state con:licts.K 4uch o< the &olitical =iolence that
remains in the world toda; is concentrated in the 4iddle East and Sub#Saharan $<rica ## the two regions o< the world that are the least integrated into the global econom;. E::orts to brin1 peace to those re1ions must inclu,e lowerin1 their hi1h barriers to tra,eD :orei1n in;estmentD an, ,omestic entrepreneurship. $d=ocates o< <ree trade and globalization ha=e long argued that trade e)&ansion means more e<<icienc;H higher incomesH and reduced &o=ert; . <he welcome ,ecline o: arme, con:licts in the
past :ew ,eca,es in,icates that :ree tra,e also comes with its own peace ,i;i,en,.

Scholars

Economic downturn breeds wars 4ead . C>enr9 D )r :ellow in U.). 7orei1n 6olic9 at the Council on 7orei1n 0elationsD The New Re+ublicD 2343%$D
http:33www.tnr.com3politics3stor9.htmlFi,G!"1cbbb$-2##"-4,#1-#!42-$2e#3$1!:!:#@pG2I E<
)o :arD such hal<#hearted
e)&eriments not onl; ha=e <ailed to wor3R the; ha=e le<t the societies that ha=e tried them in a &rogressi=el; worse &ositionD :arther behin, the :ront-runners as time 1oes b9. $rgentina has lost ground to ChileR 0ussian
,e;elopment has :allen :arther behin, that o: the /altic states an, Central Europe. 7reNuentl9D the crisis has wea-ene, the power o: the merchantsD in,ustrialistsD :inanciersD an, pro:essionals who want to ,e;elop a liberal capitalist societ9 inte1rate, into the worl, . Crisis can also strengthen
the hand o< religious e)tremistsH &o&ulist radicalsH or authoritarian traditionalists who are determined to resist liberal ca&italist societ; <or a =ariet; o< reasons. .eanwhileD the companies an, ban-s base, in these societies are o:ten less establishe, an, more ;ulnerable to the conseNuences o: a :inancial crisis than more establishe, :irms in wealthier societies. As a resultD de=elo&ing countries and countries where ca&italism has relati=el; recent and shallow roots tend to su<<er greater economic and &olitical damage when crisis stri3es##asH ine=itabl;H it does. An,D conseNuentl9D <inancial crises o<ten rein<orce rather than challenge the global distribution o< &ower and wealth. <his ma9 be happenin1 9et a1ain. *one o: which means that we can Eust
sit bac- an, enEo9 the recession. >istor9 ma9 su11est that :inancial crises actuall9 help capitalist 1reat powers maintain their lea,s--but it has otherD less reassurin1 messa1es as well. I< <inancial crises ha=e been a normal &art o< li<e ,urin1 the 3%%-9ear rise o: the liberal capitalist s9stem un,er the An1lophone powersD so has war. <he wars o: the 4ea1ue o: Au1sbur1 an, the )panish )uccessionU the )e;en Bears +arU the American 0e;olutionU the *apoleonic +arsU the two +orl, +arsU the col, war: <he list o: wars is almost as lon1 as the list o: :inancial crises. Bad economic times can breed wars. Europe was a prett9 peace:ul place in 1$2#D but the Depression poisone, German public opinion an, helpe, brin1 A,ol: >itler to power. 2: the current crisis turns into a ,epressionD what rough beasts might start slouching toward 4oscowH :arachiH BeiLingH
or 1ew Delhi to be bornS >he !nited States ma; notH ;etH declineH butH i< we canGt get the world econom; bac3 on trac3H we ma; still ha=e to <ight.

Scholars

>he econom; is in a continual downhill slide C unless we can ma3e a reco=er; the world is destined <or =iolent &olitical unrest. :lareH . C.ichael <.D 6ro:essor o: 6eace an, +orl, )ecurit9 )tu,ies at >ampshire Colle1eD author o: T0esource
+arsQ an, T/loo, an, =ilQD ser;es on the boar, o: ,irectors o: the >uman 0i1hts +achD an, is a columnist :or 7orei1n 6olic9 in 7ocus. <he 6ine >ills *ewsD 7ebruar9 2! 2%%$. http:33thepinehillsnews.com3wp32%%$3%232!3economic-crash-will-:uel-social-unrest3 AD (33%3%$I
+hile most such inci,ents are tri11ere, b9 an imme,iate e;ent S a tari::D the closure o: local :actor9D the announcement o: 1o;ernment austerit9 measures S there are s;stemic <actors at wor3 as well. +hile economists now agree that we are in the
midst o< a recession dee&er than an; since the Great De&ression o< the 1.'0sH the; generall; assume that this downturn S li-e all others since +orl, +ar 22 S will be <ollowed in a ;earH or twoD or threeD b; the beginning o< a t;&ical reco=er;. <here are 1oo, reasons to suspect that this might not be the case S that &oorer countries Calon1 with man9 people in the richer countriesI will ha=e to wait <ar longer <or such a reco=er;H or ma; see none at all. E;en in the Unite, )tatesD *(E o< $mericans now belie=e that Mthe worstO is M;et to comeO an,
onl9 "R that the econom9 has Tturne, the cornerDQ accor,in1 to a recent 2psos3.cClatch9 pollU :ull9 a Nuarter thin- the crisis will last more than :our 9ears. 2hether in the !.S.H 5ussiaH ChinaH or BangladeshH it is this underl;ing an)iet; S this sus&icion that things are <ar worse than Eust about an9one is sa9in1 S which is hel&ing to <uel the global e&idemic o< =iolence. >he 2orld Ban30s most recent status re&ortD Global Economic 6rospects 2%%$D <ul<ills those an)ieties in two wa9s. 2t re:uses to state the worstD e;en while mana1in1 to hintD in terms too clear to be i1nore,D at the prospect o: a lon1-termD or e;en permanentD ,ecline in economic con,itions :or man9 in the worl,. *ominall9 upbeat S as are so man9 me,ia pun,its S re1ar,in1 the li-elihoo, o: an economic reco;er9 in the not-too-,istant :utureD the re&ort remains <ull o<
warnings about the &otential <or lasting damage in the de=elo&ing world i< things don0t go e)actl; right. <wo worriesD in particularD ,ominate Global Economic 6rospects 2%%$: that ban-s an, corporations in the wealthier countries
will cease ma-in1 in;estments in the ,e;elopin1 worl,D cho-in1 o:: whate;er 1rowth possibilities remainU an, that :oo, costs will rise uncom:ortabl9D while the use o: :armlan,s :or increase, bio:uels pro,uction will result in ,iminishe, :oo, a;ailabilit9 to hun,re,s o: millions. Despite its 6oll9anna-ish passa1es on an economic reboun,D the report ,oes not mince wor,s when ,iscussin1 what the almost certain comin1 ,ecline in 7irst +orl, in;estment in <hir, +orl, countries woul, mean: T)houl, cre,it mar-ets :ail to respon, to the robust polic9 inter;entions ta-en so :arD the conseNuences :or ,e;elopin1 countries coul, be ;er9 serious. )uch a scenario woul, be characteriJe, b9^ substantial ,isruption an, turmoilD inclu,in1 ban- :ailures an, currenc9 crisesD in a wi,e ran1e o: ,e;elopin1 countries. )harpl9 ne1ati;e 1rowth in a number o: ,e;elopin1 countries an, all o: the atten,ant repercussionsD inclu,in1 increase, po;ert9 an, unemplo9mentD woul, be ine;itable.Q In the <all o< 200-H when the re&ort was writtenH this was considered a Mworst#case scenario.O Since thenH the situation has ob=iousl; worsened radicall; D with :inancial anal9sts reportin1 a ;irtual :reeJe in worl,wi,e in;estment. ENuall9 troublin1D newl9 in,ustrialiJe, countries that rel9 on e portin1 manu:acture, 1oo,s to richer countries :or much o: their national income ha;e reporte, stomach-wrenchin1 plun1es in salesD pro,ucin1 massi;e plant closin1s an, la9o::s. <he +orl, /an-'s 2%%# sur;e9 also contains troublin1 ,ata about the :uture a;ailabilit9 o: :oo,. Althou1h insistin1 that the planet is capable o: pro,ucin1 enou1h :oo,stu::s to meet the nee,s o: a 1rowin1 worl, populationD its anal9sts were :ar less con:i,ent that su::icient :oo, woul, be a;ailable at prices people coul, a::or,D especiall9 once h9,rocarbon prices be1in to rise a1ain. +ith e;er more :armlan, bein1 set asi,e :or bio:uels pro,uction an, e::orts to increase crop 9iel,s throu1h the use o: Tmiracle see,sQ losin1 steamD the /an-'s anal9sts balance, their 1enerall9 hope:ul outloo- with a ca;eat: T2: bio:uels-relate, ,eman, :or crops is much stron1er or pro,ucti;it9 per:ormance ,isappointsD :uture :oo, supplies ma9 be much more e pensi;e than in the past.Q Combine these two 2orld Ban3 <indings V zero economic growth in the de=elo&ing world and
rising <ood &rices V and ;ou ha=e a &er<ect reci&e <or unrelenting ci=il unrest and =iolence. >he eru&tions seen in 200- and earl; 200. will then be mere harbingers o< a grim <uture in whichH in a gi=en wee3H an; number o< cities reel <rom riots and ci=il disturbances which could s&read li3e multi&le brush<ires in a drought.

Scholars

Economic decline will result in global war. 4eadH . C+alter 0ussell .ea,D >enr9 A. 8issin1er senior :ellow :or U.). :orei1n polic9 at the Council on 7orei1n
0elations. The New Re+ublicD 2.4.$. http:33www.tnr.com3politics3stor9.htmlFi,G!"1cbbb$-2##"-4,#1-#!42$2e#3$1!:!:#@pG2 AD (33%3%$I E< )o :arD such hal:-hearte, e periments not onl9 ha;e :aile, to wor-U the9 ha;e le:t the societies that ha;e trie, them in a pro1ressi;el9 worse positionD :arther behin, the :ront-runners as time 1oes b9. Ar1entina has lost 1roun, to ChileU 0ussian ,e;elopment has :allen :arther behin, that o: the /altic states an, Central Europe. 7reNuentl9D the crisis has wea-ene, the power o: the merchantsD in,ustrialistsD :inanciersD an, pro:essionals who want to ,e;elop a liberal capitalist societ9 inte1rate, into the worl,. Crisis can also stren1then the han, o: reli1ious e tremistsD populist ra,icalsD or authoritarian tra,itionalists who are ,etermine, to resist liberal capitalist societ9 :or a ;ariet9 o: reasons. .eanwhileD the companies an, ban-s base, in these societies are o:ten less establishe, an, more ;ulnerable to the conseNuences o: a :inancial crisis than more establishe, :irms in wealthier societies. As a resultD ,e;elopin1 countries an, countries where capitalism has relati;el9 recent an, shallow roots ten, to su::er 1reater economic an, political ,ama1e when crisis stri-es--asD ine;itabl9D it ,oes. An,D conseNuentl9D <inancial crises o<ten rein<orce rather than challenge the global distribution o< &ower and wealth. <his ma9 be happenin1 9et a1ain. *one o: which means that we can Eust sit bac- an, enEo9 the recession. >istor9 ma9 su11est that :inancial crises actuall9 help capitalist 1reat powers maintain their lea,s--but it has otherD less reassurin1 messa1es as well.I< <inancial crises ha=e been a normal &art o< li<e ,urin1 the 3%%-9ear rise o: the liberal capitalist s9stem un,er the An1lophone powersD so has war. <he wars o: the 4ea1ue o: Au1sbur1 an, the )panish )uccessionU the )e;en Bears +arU the American 0e;olutionU the *apoleonic +arsU the two +orl, +arsU the col, war: <he list o: wars is almost as lon1 as the list o: :inancial crises. Bad economic times can breed wars. Euro&e was a &rett; &eace<ul &lace in 1.2-H but the De&ression &oisoned German &ublic o&inion and hel&ed bring $dol< @itler to &ower. I< the current crisis turns into a de&ressionH what rough beasts might start slouching toward 4oscowH :arachiH BeiLingH or 1ew Delhi to be bornF <he Unite, )tates ma9 notD 9etD ,eclineD butH i< we canGt get the world econom; bac3 on trac3H we ma; still ha=e to <ight.

Scholars

Economic colla&se leads to global im&erialism and war Internationalist 8ers&ecti=eH 2 C)an,erD 431232%%2D http:33users.s-9net.be3ippi33t1!R2%ipte .htmI E<
/ut let us now e amine the conseNuences o: a ,eep 1lobal economic crisis on the imperialist impulses o: other countries. <he worsenin1 economic con,itions woul, be :elt most acutel9 in the peripher9 o: the 1lobal or,erD where alrea,9 now man9 capitals :eel the -ni:e o: ,e;aloriJation on their throats an, man9 states are losin1 their authorit9 o;er parts o: their territories an, their monopol9 o;er the use o: armies. <husD the economic colla&se will ine=itabl; ignite more inter#im&erialist <iresH wars o< states against states as well as so#called ci=il wars. 2ncreasin1l9D the U) an, its main allies will :ace the ,ilemma whether to put them out or not. <he line o: what the sheri:: o: the 1lobal or,er permits will be constantl9 shi:tin1. Gi;en their own economic problemsD the cost o: inter;enin1 militaril9 will wei1h increasin1l9 hea;il9. <he ,ispute o;er who shoul, carr9 the bur,en will come on top o: the other con:licts create, b9 the economic crisis an, :urther un,ermine the perception o: commonalit9 o: interests between them. 7urthermore the willin1ness o: societ9 an, o: the wor-in1 class in particular to accept 1rowin1 militar9 inter;ention ma9 throw up an impassable roa,bloc-. +hat is an, what is not in the ;ital national interest o: the U) an, Europe will be constantl9 re,e:ine,. 2t seems ;er9 li-el9 thenD that an increasin1 number o: con:licts will ha;e to be allowe, to 1o on without inter;ention o: the maEor powers. Countries such as 5ussiaH ChinaH Iran and others would Lum& into the =acuum to ad=ance their own im&erialist interests . Alliances an, connections between ,i::erent con:licts woul, emer1e. >he dee&er the economic crisis becomes and the more wars are &ermittedH the more the im&erialist im&ulse would snowball. E;en i: the maEor powers woul, succee, in imposin1 a retrenche, but har, line o: ,e:ense o: the 1lobal or,erD which is a ;er9 bi1 [i:'D an, pre;ent war between the nuclear arme, 2n,ia an, 6a-istanD between China an, <aiwan or &apanD an in;asion o: )outh-8orea b9 the *orth or wars that woul, en,an1er oil-pro,uction in the .i,,le EastD the :ire woul, burn wi,e an, ,eep. <o summariJe: :or man9 capitalsD the cost#bene<it anal;sis o< im&erialist underta3ings would drasticall; change because the se=erit; o< their economic &roblems would increase the incenti=e to see3 com&ensation through conJuest and &illageD while the ,isincenti;e to ,o so woul, ,iminish because the 1lobal econom9 in crisis woul, o::er them less bene:itsD especiall9 i: the ,e;elope, capitals react to this crisis in a ,e:ensi;eD protectionist wa9. >he militar; disincenti=e would &rogressi=el; diminish b; a growing reluctance and inca&acit; o< the !S and other &owers to inter=ene and last but not least the social incenti=e would increase because throu1h nationalistH racist and )eno&hobic war and ethnic/religious cleansing cam&aignsD capitalism woul, see- to channel the increasin1 unrestD an1er an, ;iolence in societ9 to protect its own rule an, ,omestic or,er.

Scholars
Im&acts# Econ Good# Im&act Calc B 2ar

Economic colla&se leads to 1azismH global star=ationH 24D warsCbest time<rame 1;JuistD * CeconomistD 2-4-%!D wee-l9 columnD :inancial senseD
http:33www.:inancialsense.com3stormwatch31eo3pastanal9sis32%%!3%2%4.htmlI E<
>a9e- ac-nowle,1e, that &olitical e)igencies might ta3e &recedence o=er economic &rinci&les . As it happene,D 0ap-e ,i, not publish >a9e-'s article. Accor,in1 to >a9e-D Mthe &olitical danger o< increasing unem&lo;ment was so great that T5]&3eU
would ris3 the danger o< causing <urther TeconomicU misdirections b; more in<lation in the ho&e o< &ost&oning the crisis.O 2ithin three ;ears o< @a;e30s note to 0ap-eD German;0s troubles led to the appointment o: @itler as Chancellor o:
German9. <he Nuestion ma9 be as-e,: +h9 were two economists o: the Austrian )chool A >a9e- an, 0ap-e A willin1 to sti:le their criticism o: cre,it e pansion in the :ace o: political re;olutionF As it happensD political wis,om is not the same as economic wis,om. 2n politics the correct solution to a problem ma9 not be acceptable to the ;oters. A:ter all D the &ublic does not understand economic principles. <he9 ,o not reco1niJe
that &ain is necessar; to mar3et correction and a health; econom;. 2nstea,D the; are <reJuentl; read; to reLect good economic &olic; in <a=or o< anti#mar3et demagogues Pli3e @itlerI. 7rom the point o: ;iew o: practical politicsD there:oreD it is
better to a,opt ba, economic policies an, steal the ,ema1o1ue's thun,er than allow a totalitarian part9 to win popular appro;al an, ,estro9 the republic. 2t is still remar-ableD howe;erD that >a9e- an, 0ap-e were willin1 to accept the necessit9 o: cre,it e pansion in the case o: +eimar German9. <heir collea1ueD 4u,wi1 ;on .isesD warne, a1ainst cre,it e pansion in the te t o: >uman Action: TA lowerin1 o: the 1ross mar-et rate o: interest as brou1ht about b9 cre,it e pansion alwa9s has the e::ect o: ma-in1 some proEects appear pro:itable which ,i, not appear so be:ore.Q 2n other wor,sD cre,it e pansion lea,s to ba, in;estments an, an ine;itable mar-et ,ebacle. T2: the cre,it e pansion is not stoppe, in timeDQ .ises e plaine,D Tthe boom turns into WaX crac-up boomU the :li1ht into real ;alues be1insD Wan,X the whole monetar9 s9stem :oun,ers.Q .ises also state,: T<he :inal outcome o: the cre,it e pansion is 1eneral impo;erishment.Q )a,l9D the ;oters in German9 ,urin1 the 1$3%s an, the =oters in $merica toda; do not understand the
harm<ulness o< credit e)&ansion. +orse 9etD the 9ederal 5eser=e does not <ull; a&&reciate A or ,oes not a,mit A that $merica must &ass through a &eriod o< economic &ain in order to regain its economic health. 2: the 7e,eral 0eser;e cannot spea- :ran-l9D or act correctl9 in this re1ar, D what can we e)&ect <rom leading &oliticiansS <he part9 most associate, with the :ree mar-et A the 5e&ublican 8art; A will ,oubtless ta3e the blame :or :uture economic conseNuences. 4o1icall9D the political le:t A now in :irm control o: the Democratic 8art; C will ma3e signi<icant gains. 2n a boo- title, =mnipotent Go;ernmentD written ,urin1 +orl, +ar 22D 4u,wi1 ;on .ises note, that the *aJis initiall9 triumphe, because the T:un,amental tenets o: the 1azi ideolog; ,o not ,i::er :rom the 1enerall9 accepte, social an, economic i,eolo1ies.Q Accor,in1 to .isesD these T1enerall9 accepte,Q i,eolo1ies embrace the :ollowin1 si) &oints: TC1I Capitalism is an un:air s9stem o: e ploitation. 2t inEures the immense maEorit9 :or the bene:it o: a small
minorit9^. C2I 2t is there:ore the :oremost ,ut9 o: popular 1o;ernment to substitute 1o;ernment control o: business :or the mana1ement o: capitalists an, entrepreneurs. C3I 6rice ceilin1s an, minimum wa1e rates ^ are an a,eNuate means :or impro;in1 the lot o: the consumers an, permanentl9 raisin1 the stan,ar, o: li;in1^. C4I Eas9 mone9 polic9D i.e.D cre,it e pansionD is a use:ul metho, o: li1htenin1 the bur,ens impose, b9 capital upon the masses an, ma-in1 a countr9 more prosperous. 2t has nothin1 to ,o with the perio,ical recurrence o: economic ,epression. Economic crises are an e;il inherent in unhampere, capitalism. C!I All those who ^ assert that capitalism best ser;es the masses ^ are ill-intentione, an, narrow-min,e, apolo1ists o: the sel:ish class interests o: the e ploiters^. C(I <he a,;anta1e ,eri;e, :rom :orei1n tra,e lies e clusi;el9 in e portin1. 2mports are ba, an, shoul, be pre;ente, as much as possible.Q C)ee pp. 222-223.Iat a time o< economic crisisH the a&&eal o< 1azi economic ideas must &ro=e irresistible . 2t stan,s to reasonD there:oreD that a :uture :inancial crash will bene:it political e tremists whose i,eas coinci,e with those liste, abo;e. 6lease note :
there is no a&&reciable di<<erence between the si) dogmas liste, abo;e and the rhetoric o: the Democrats in Congress. Should the !nited States e)&erience a se=ere economic contraction during the second term o< 6resi,ent BushD the $merican &eo&le will li-el9 su&&ort &oliticians who ad=ocate <urther restrictions an, controls on our mar3et econom9 A guaranteeing its strangulation and the stead; &au&erization o< the countr;. 2n Con1ress to,a9D Sen. E,war, :enned; su&&orts nearl9 all the economic dogmas liste, abo;e. 2t is eas9 to seeD there:oreD that the comin1 economic contractionD
,ue in part to a polic9 o: massi;e cre,it e pansionD will ha;e serious political conseNuences :or the 0epublican 6art9 Cto the bene:it o: the DemocratsI. 7urthermoreD an economic contraction will encoura1e the :ormation o: anti-capitalist maEorities an, a turnin1 awa9 :rom the :ree mar-et s9stem. >he
danger here is not merel9 economic. >he &olitical le<t o&enl; <a=ors the colla&se o< $merica0s strategic &osition abroad. >he withdrawal o: the Unite, )tates <rom the 4iddle EastH the 9ar East and Euro&e would catastro&hicall; im&act an international s;stem that &resentl; allows + billion &eo&le to li=e on the earth0s sur<ace in relati=e &eace. Should anti#ca&italist dogmas o=erwhelm the global mar3et and trading s;stem that e=ol=ed under $merican leadershi&H the &lanet0s econom; would contract and untold millions would die o< star=ation . 1ationalistic totalitarianismD :uele, b9 a politics o: blameD would once a1ain bring war to $sia and Euro&e. But this time the war would be waged with mass destruction wea&ons and the !nited States would be blamed because it is the center o: 1lobal capitalism. 7urthermoreD i: the anti-capitalist part9 1ains power in +ashin1ton D we can e)&ect to see &olicies o< a&&easement and unilateral disarmament enacted. $merican a&&easement and disarmament D in this conte tD would be an admission o< guilt be:ore the court o: worl, opinion. 5ussia and ChinaD abo;e allD would e)&loit this a,mission to Lusti<; aggressi=e warsH in=asions and mass destruction attac3s. $ <uture <inancial crashD there:oreD must be &re=ented at all costs. /ut we cannot ,o this. As one obser;er recentl9 lamente,D T+e ,ran- the poison an, now we must ,ie.Q

Scholars
Im&acts# Econ Good# Interde&endence

Economic growth breeds interde&endence with China $=ersa +/- C&eannineD AP Sta&& !riterD )SA Toda"D (.#.1%D http:33www.usato,a9.com3mone93econom932%1%-%(%#-bernan-eH*.htm I E<
7e,eral 0eser;e Chairman /en Bernan3e said 4onda; he is ho&e<ul the econom; will gain traction and not <all bac3 into a Idouble di&I recession. K.9 best 1uess is we will ha;e a continue, reco;er9D but it wonLt :eel terri:icDK /ernan-e sai,. <hatLs because economic growth wonGt be robust enough to Juic3l; dri=e down the unem&lo;ment rateH now at ..,EH he sai, in remar-s to the +oo,row +ilson 2nternational Center :or )cholarsD a non-partisan research 1roup. >he econom; grew at a 'E &ace in the :irst Nuarter o: this 9ear. <hatLs 1oo, 1rowth ,urin1 normal times. /ut comin1 out o: such a ,eep recessionD the econom; must grow much more strongl; to ma3e a dent in the Lobless rate. 7ears ha;e 1rown that the reco;er9 coul, be ,eraile, i: EuropeLs ,ebt crisis turns into a broa,er :inancial conta1ionD crimpin1 len,in1 in the Unite, )tates an, aroun, the 1lobe. <he situation has spoo-e, in;estors an, sent +all )treet into :its o: panic. /ernan-e sai, the 7e, is monitorin1 the European crisis care:ull9D an, he belie;es European lea,ers are ta-in1 the ri1ht steps to ,eal with the problems. As-e, when the 7e, will start raisin1 interest ratesD /ernan-e Nuippe, Kin the :uture.K <he 7e, has ple,1e, to hol, rates at recor, lows to nurture the reco;er9. A 1rowin1 number o: economists now belie;e the 7e, wonLt start to boost rates until ne t 9ear 1i;en the European crisis an, hi1h unemplo9ment. /ernan-e ,i,nLt o::er new clues about when the 7e, woul, re;erse course an, start to ti1hten cre,it. >owe;erD he ,i, sa9 the 7e, wonLt be able to wait until the Eobs mar-et is :ull9 heale, be:ore it pushe, rates up. =bser;in1 the econom9D Bernan3e said the news so <ar is I&rett; good.K /oth consumers an, companies are spen,in1 su::icientl9 to -eep the reco;er9 mo;in1 :orwar,. >he &ri=ate sectorH he saidH is I&ic3ing u& the batonI as 1o;ernment stimulusD which mainl9 powere, the reco;er9 in its earliest sta1eD starts to :a,e. ?n relations between the !nited States and
ChinaH Bernan3e said there is a real desire between the two su&er&owers to wor3 together to ease trade and economic tensions. Both countries sort o: understand there is a Ico#de&endenc; relationshi&HI /ernan-e sai,. >he !nited States sna&s u& Chinese goods and the Chinese is a maLor bu;er o< the !.S. go=ernmentGs debt.
$nd interde&endence discourages war b; ma3ing the marginal cost bigger than marginal bene<it ?#5eill; . C6ierceD pro: o: poli-sci P Columbia UD apr 2$-$D Columbia3edu D
http:33www.columbia.e,u3cu3polisci3p,:-:iles3miniapsaHoreill9.p,: I E<
Game theoretic &ers&ecti=es on war argue that countries <ight when the gains outweigh the costs.WFX .uch research in international relations has <ocused on nation#states as rational actors who bene:it :rom certain assets that can be 1aine, :rom war. >hese assets ma; be territor;H resolution o< a dis&ute in their <a=ourH international or domestic &restigeH or greater securit;. StatesH as rational actorsH weigh these gains against the costs o: warD such as the cost o: militar9 operationD ,estruction o: capitalD disru&tion o< economic acti=it;D or the loss o: territor9 or other assets in the e;ent o: ,e:eat. >he costs o< war can also be less tangibleH such as lost or disru&ted alliancesH re&utational costsH or increased ris3s o< war with other countries. A
crucial t9pe o: the 1ain :rom war has historicall9 been the acNuisition o: economic resources. +ars are o:- ten :ou1ht to sustain the hu1e ,eman, :or primar9 inputs nee,e, b9 1rowin1 economies. <hus resource-rich countries can be an attracti;e tar1et :or a11ressors.

Scholars
Im&acts# Econ Good# Interde&endence

Economic growth s&urs international coo&eration whichH through <ree trade# causes &eace ?#5eill; . C6ierceD pro: o: poli-sci P Columbia UD apr 2$-$D Columbia3edu D
http:33www.columbia.e,u3cu3polisci3p,:-:iles3miniapsaHoreill9.p,: I E<
*owD wars are costl;U in a,,ition to the costs o: militar9 buil,-up an, wa1in1 a warD natural and other &roducti=e resources are o:ten destro;ed during war- :i1htin1. Consi,erD :or e ampleD the )o;iet UnionLs scorche,-earth polic9 ,urin1 1$41-42D or the bu,1et ,e:icits incurre, b9 the Unite, )tates ,urin1 the recent war in 2raN. 5e&utational losses and international a&&robation must also be consideredU consider the re&u#tational di<iculties encountered b; Britain and 9rance during their aborti=e attem&t to seize the Suez canal in 1$!(. Gi;en these ,ea,wei1ht lossesD we are at pains to e plain wh9 countries :ace such stron1 incenti;es to 1o to war :or resources. 2 ar1ue that economic heterogeneit; can be im&ortant &art o< an e)&lanation o< this. Economic as;mmetries are instances where countries o< similar gross out&ut might be &ossessed o< =er; resource endowmentsR German9 ma9 ha;e coalD 7rance ironD or &apan ma9 ha;e hi1h-s-ille, labour an, capital while China ma9 ha;e low-s-ille, labour an, lan,. >his should result in increased incenti=es <or countries to wage wars in instances where their would#be o&&onent has a relati=el; large amount o< a resource the; lac3. >radeH howe;erD can allow natural resources to be shared between countries on an international mar3et. =:tenD countries will &re<er to bu; resources their econom; needs <rom another countr; rather than ta3e them b; <orce. <hus <ree trade can be a 3e; mechanism in reducing the incenti=es <or countries to go to war. +here tra,e is :easible Cwhere tarri:s an, shippin1 costs are low enou1hD an, where economic resources are tradableF it can be chea&er to bu; goods than to a&&ro&riate them b; <orce. 2 will show that the 1ains to &eace <rom trade are largest when war is most li3el;D an, that the gains to &eace are directl; &ro&ortional to the ^gains <rom tradeGH <amiliar <rom trade models.
Growth good# s&urs international de&endence that &ro=ides securit;# :issinger and Cold war conclude 9ran3s -0 CE,war,D assistant ,irector P 0an,D RAND$Au1 #%D
http:33www.ran,.or13pubs3notes32%%$3*1!(#.p,: I E< E=ents o< the late 1.+0s and earl; 1.,0s resulted in signi<icant changes in the international s;stem . Accor,in1 to numerous polic9-ma-ersD these changes were at least in &art due to increased economic interde&endence. As a resultD there ensued a &roli<eration o< strategies lin3ing the international economic and &olitical arenas. )uch lin3age strategies were a &re=alent <eature o< di&lomac; during the 1i)on/ 9ord administrationH es&eciall; with regard to the concept o: d_tente. :issinger en=isioned that the interrelationshi& o< issuesD as e presse, in the lin-a1e conceptD would de=elo& a networ3 o< interests between the !nited States and the So=iet !nion and ma3e both sides conscious o< what the; would lose b; re=erting to &olicies o< con<rontation and crisis. =ne important aspect o: this lin-a1e phenomenon is the economic com&onent. <his is re<lected in the wides&read belie< that economic interde&endence brings &olitical and securit; bene<its . 2n,ee, during the cold warH when contact between the !nited States and the !SS5 was se=erel; limitedH man; argued that im&ro=ed economic relations might mitigate international tensionsH as e=idenced b; se=eral congressional resolutions to that e<<ect. <he NuestionD accor,in1 to 8issin1erD wasD T how coul, tra,e an, economic contact ser;e the purpose o: peaceFQ :issinger C1$""D p. 1!#I concluded that% ?=er timeH trade and in=estment ma; lesson the autocratic tendencies o< the so=iet s;stemH in=ite gradual association o< the So=iet econom; with the world econom;H and <oster a degree o< interde&endenc; that adds an element o< stabilit9 to the political eNuation.

Scholars
Im&acts# Econ Good# $2% 2ar# Goldstein

Goldstein0s argument is logicall; <lawed# e)&lains a nation state le=el argument in the conte)t o< s;stemic le=el <actors Cashman 23 CGre1D poli-sci P )alisbur9 state UD !hat causes war78 an introduction to theories o& international
con&lict D p1. (#I E< Goldstein0s e)&lanation <or the lin3 between 8-wa;es an, war is that increasing &roduction &roduces a great demand <or these resources. >his com&etition occurs during a &eriod when &roduction increases ha=e made increased su&&lies o< war material a=ailable to the militar9 sectorD ,rasticall9 increasing the &robabilit; o< war. C<his is essentiall9 a lateral pressure ar1ument without the emphasis on population 1rowth.I )ince war is a costl; endea=orH states &re<er to engage in it when the resources are relati=el; &lenti<ul. +ar is most li-el9 to occurD thenD near the en, o: the lon1-wa;e upswin1. *oteD howe;erD that Gol,stein <alls bac3 on nation#state# le=el argument C the presence o: economic wherewithalI to hel& e)&lain a theor; based on s;stemic#le=el <actors C8-wa;esI.
Goldstein0s theor; o< u&swing causing war is em&iricall; wrong# ( o< the last 10 wars were in a downswing and onl; 2 were in an u&swing Cashman 23 CGre1D poli-sci P )alisbur9 state UD !hat causes war78 an introduction to theories o& international
con&lict D p1. (#I E< +hat ,oes this ha;e to ,o with .o,els-i's lon1-c9cle theor9F Goldstein argues that the hegemonic c;cle and economic long#wa=e c;cleH thou1h the9 are not in phase with each otherD o&erate in conLunction with each other. <husD he1emonic ,ecline ,oes not b9 itsel: lea, to warU it is onl9 ,an1erous when it coinci,es with an e pansionar9 phase o: the economic c9cle. Economic e pansion b9 itsel: is not ,an1erous eitherU it must be accompanie, b9 he1emonic sta1nation. 7or e ampleD the economic e pansion o: the 1$(%s was not associate, with maEor wars because o: the stron1 he1emonic position o: the Unite, )tates. Gol,stein pre,icts new economic upswin1s to coinci,e with the continuation o: American he1emonic ,ecline between 2%%% an, 2%3% /ac3 le=; ree)amines the issueH matching Goldstein0s data on economic &roduction c;cles against the ten general wars o< the last * centuries. @e is interested not in pea-s o: war se;erit9D but in war initiation. 2hen the &roduction c;cle alone is considered Ca:ter allD Gol,stein's theor9 is base, on the rise an, :all o: pro,uctionD rather than on prices or other ;ariablesFH 6e=; disco=ers a &icture at odds with Goldstein0s theor;. 9our o< the ten wars were begun during the middle or end o< a &roduction downswing &haseD an, two occurre, at the be1innin1 o: an upswin1- rather than near the en, o: the upswin1D as Gol,stein's theor9 su11ests. 4an; o< the wars bro3e out near the transition <rom downswing to u&swingH so that the causalities associated with them belonged in the u&swing &hase e=en though the wars might ha=e begun in the downswing- e plainin1 wh9 Gol,sttein :oun, an association between 8-wa;es an, se;erit9 o: warD but not between -- wa;es an, war initiation.

Scholars

Goldstein is wrong# <ails to ta3e 3e; authors into account 4idlars3; -. C .anusD political science P 0ut1ers UD Journal o& PoliticsD ?ol !1 *o. 4D *o; #$D
http:33www.Estor.or13stable32131!(# D p1 1%(#-$IE<
>here are heartenin1 an, disa&&ointing as&ects to both boo3s ta-en to1ether. =n the positi;e si,eD the stu,9 o: s9stemicD worl,D or
he1emonic wars is now recei;in1 separate an,D 2 mi1ht a,,D hi1hl9 success:ul theoretical an, empirical treatment. <his is in,icati;e o: the maturation o: a science. Co1nate elements o: a phenomenon are anal9Je, separatel9 :rom the remain,er to see how well the9 cohere in the attempt at e planation. A,,itionall9 an, importantl9D how success:ul is that e planator9 e::ortF 7ortunatel9D in the case o< Goldstein treatment D the answer to both Nuestions is 9es. >he disa&&ointing as&ect emerges in the danger that anal;sts o< s;stemic wars ma; become
increasingl; di=orced <rom those who treat smaller wars. >his danger is alread; <oreshadowed in the two boo3s under re=iew here. *either .o,els-iD 4e;9D nor Doran are re:erence, in &amesL boo-. 2n turnD neither Bueno de 4esJuitaH QinnesH nor 2il3en<eld are re<erred to in GoldsteinGs =olume. <he ,i;ision alrea,9 is appearin1 at this timeD with un:oreseenD but 2 suspect ultimatel; deleterious conseJuences <or the <ield o< international con<lict research.
Goldstein0s statistical methods were <lawed# wrong grou&ings and lac3 o< Juantitati=e methods 5ostow -- C+.+.D Unite, )tates *ational )ecurit9 A,;isorD Journal o& 1conomic %istor"D ;ol 4# no. 4D Dec
1$##D http:33www.Estor.or13stable32121(#2 D p.$$% I E<
>his boo3 is <lawed in a number o< res&ects. >he re=iew o< long#c;cle theories and e=idence is com&licated b; the e<<ort to lin3 the character o< theories to the &olitical orientation o: theorists. >he grou&ing &ro=es rather unsatis<actor;D with a 1oo, man9 :i1ures ,ispose, o: in a :ew unpersuasi;e phrasesU an, there are some curious anomalies as well. +hile respectin1 Gol,steinLs e::ort to sur;e9 an, 1i;e shape to the whole lon1-c9cle literatureD I can onl; re&ort thatD :or this rea,erD it didnGt come o<<. >he <law in 8art >wo is much more serious. 7irstD as in,icate, earlierD the data are not adeJuate <or a test o< his long# wa=e/war h;&othesisH with respect to time perio,sD Nualit9D or ;ariables co;ere,. )econ,D the statistical methods and results constitute a reduction and absurdum o< the &resent <ashion in &olitical science o< reliance on <ormal Juantitati=e methods.
Goldstein is wrong# his em&irics are based o<< o< nominal rather than real <igures# economicall; incorrect 5ostow -- C+.+.D Unite, )tates *ational )ecurit9 A,;isorD Journal o& 1conomic %istor"D ;ol 4# no. 4D Dec
<o 1et at the heart o: the matterD it is sim&l; not true that there is a s;stematic relation between the &rice trends which underlie GoldsteinGs Kbase ,atin1 schemeI and trends in &roduction. >here are good and bad &rice u&swings and downswings. >he <irst &rice downswing C1#1!-1#4#I was mar3ed b; a higher rate o< growth in the /ritish an, worl, economies than the <irst u&swing C1"$%-1#1!ID when corrected <or c;clical biases in ,atin1. >he second &rice downswing C1#"3-1#$(I was a &eriod o< deceleration in British &roduction Cnot real wa1esI but accelerate, 1rowth in a 1oo, man9 other countries. >he third &rice downswing C1$2%-1$33I wasD o: courseD accom&anied b; deceleration or decline in most &arts o< the world econom;. >he results o< the u&swings are similarl; mi)ed. >he clustering o< maLor inno=ations is also erratic in relation to the Kbase ,atin1 scheme.K
Goldstein is <alse# historical summaries incorrect 5ostow -- C+.+.D Unite, )tates *ational )ecurit9 A,;isorD Journal o& 1conomic %istor"D ;ol 4# no. 4D Dec
7inall9 GoldsteinGs historical summaries are ine=itabl; thinH gi=en the lon1 timeperio, co;ere,D his speculations on the past an, :uture as wellD an, the com&le)it; o< the issues he raises. >he human race wonGt get <rom here to Icommon securit;I b; incantationH or e=en the Loint e)&loration o< s&ace. >he &eace<ul &hasing out o< the Cold 2arR the absor&tion into
the world econom; and &olit; o< technologicall; mature ChinaH IndiaH BrazilH and 4e)icoH and other u&wardl; mobile statesR the &reser=ation o< a =iable &h;sical en=ironment in the <ace o< the strains im&osed b; global industrializationU the patient pro;ision o: support :or countries not 9et in ta-e-o::U and the maintenance o< strongH =ital societies in 1orth $mericaD +estern EuropeD an, &apanwor-in1 in partnership-and much more are im&lied b; the decent as&irations e=o3ed b; Goldstein at the close.

Scholars

Goldstein onl; shows correlation# no causation claims 4idlars3; -. C .anusD political science P 0ut1ers UD Journal o& PoliticsD ?ol !1 *o. 4D *o; #$D
http:33www.Estor.or13stable32131!(# D p1 1%(!-1%((IE< <he core o: GoldsteinGs anal;sis is the relationshi& between elements o: the long c;cle and what has been called the hegemonic war Cmore on that usa1e momentaril9I. As concei;e, o: b9 *i-olai 8on,ratie:: in his :irst 1$2! publicationD long c;cles are wa=es o< economic acti=it; which undergo long u&swings and downswings as measured b; &ricesH &roductionH and tradeH amon1 other economic in,ices. @is legac;D althou1h not without substantial contro;ers9D has been to beJueath his name to what is now <reJuentl; called the :ondratie<< wa=e . .ore recentl9D Geor1e 4odels3i suggested theoretical relationshi&s between the :ondratie<< wa=e Cor more 1enerall9D the lon1 c9cleI and world warH and +illiam >hom&sonD amon1 othersD &ro=ided em&irical su&&ort <or as&ects o< this relationshi&. 2n this boo-D ,ata on pricesD pro,uctionD wa1esD an, other important economic in,icators are collecte, o;er the perio, 14$!-1$"!. $ total o< ** economic time series are used to test a be=; o< h;&otheses that Goldstein has collected <rom the long#c;cle literature. +hat is appealin1 about these h9potheses is that the9 are :reNuentl9 paire,
with their ob;erse counterpartsD also culle, :rom that literature. <husD the :irst h9pothesis-that Klon1 wa;es e istK-is paire, with its ob;erseD namel9D that Klon1 wa;es ,o not e istK C1(4I. =r Kwar concentrations occur on lon1 wa;e upswin1sK is couple, with Kwar clusters earl9 in the ,ownswin1K C1(#I. <he economic time series then are use, to ,emonstrate the stron1 relationship between prices an,D in a time-la11e, e::ectD pro,uctionD with perio,s o: war se;erit9 Cmeasure, b9 battle :atalitiesI occurrin1 on the lon1-wa;e upswin1.
>his is the maLor contribution o< GoldsteinGs stud;#not onl; to con<irm or discon<irm h;&otheses in the long#wa=e literature using a =ariet; o< straight<orward as well as highl; so&histicated methodologies# but :inall9 to demonstrate a robust relationshi& between two o< the most <reJuentl; used economic =ariables in lon1wa;e researchD an, perio,s o: war se;erit9. <hese points coinci,e with wars such as the <hirt9 BearsL +arD the
*apoleonic +arsD an, +orl, +ar 2. <he :in,in1s are use, to construct a theor9 o: lon1 wa;es with pro,uction 1rowth an, war se;erit9 at its core.
Goldstein wrong# based o<< the wrong hegemon 4idlars3; -. C .anusD political science P 0ut1ers UD Journal o& PoliticsD ?ol !1 *o. 4D *o; #$D
http:33www.Estor.or13stable32131!(# D p1 1%((IE< >hese accom&lishments notwithstandingH there is a &roblematic area in the historical treatment o< the boo-. An, in :airness to Gol,steinD this emerges not so much <rom his own anal9sisD as in his acce&tance o< the term hegemonic warD use, b9 othersD to characterize his &eriods o< greatest war se=erit; . <he ,i::icult9 ma9 be summariJe, in the Nuestion: +ho is the he1emon at an9 1i;en timeF It is <airl; eas; to &in&oint hegemonic &owers in the contem&orar; &eriodD especiall9 i: one accepts the primac9 o: economic pro,uction an, sea power in that ,etermination. Great Britain during the nineteenth centur; or the !nited States during the latter &art o< the twentieth centur9 easil9 comes to min,. But what o< earlier time &eriods when the choice o< a &articular countr; is unclear and the criteria <or selection are <uzz;S >hese di<<iculties lead Goldstein to choose Aenice as the initial he1emon o: the mo,ern perio, be1innin1 appro imatel9 in 13!% an, en,in1 in 1(4#. 2ith a &o&ulation onl; slightl; in e)cess o< 100H000 in the middle o< this &eriodH and a militar; size to matchH it is di<<icult to concei=e o< Aenice as a hegemonic &ower. <rueD in economic termsD an, especiall9 tra,eD she stoo, out :rom the remain,er but is it
su::icient to use onl9 economic criteria an, sea power in the .e,iterraneanD when the other bases o: power are so mea1erF <his problem points to the :urther ,i::icult9 o: choosin1 either lan,base, or sea-base, power as the principal basis :or selectin1 the he1emon.

Scholars
Im&acts# Econ Good# $2% 2ar# Goldstein# 2a=e theor;

:ondratie<< wa=e theor; em&iricall; <alse 1orth +/2, CGar9D economist an, publisher an, 6hD in histor9 :rom the Uni;ersit9 o: Cali:orniaD 0i;ersi,eD <he
.9th o: the 8on,ratie:: +a;eD http:33www.lewroc-well.com3north3north"2!.htmlD (32"3%$D AD: "3(3%$I &C <>E 8-+A?E <hese ,a9sD the :ondratie<< 2a=e has a spi::9 new name: the 8-+a;e. C2 can almost hear it: KAttention: 8-+a;e shoppersYKI <he 8-2a=e is su&&osedl; going to bring a de<lationar; colla&se 5eal Soon *ow. <he +estern worl,Ls ,ebt structure will ,isappear in a wa;e o: ,e:aults. 8on,ratie::Ls !4-9ear c9cle is almost upon us. A1ain. >he last de<lationar; &eriod ended in 1.''. >his became clear no later than 1.(0. +orl, +ar 22
or,ers :rom Great /ritainD :un,e, b9 American loans an, 7e,eral 0eser;e polic9D en,e, the Great Depression b9 lowerin1 real wa1es. 2n 1$42D price an, wa1e controls were impose, b9 +ashin1tonD the 7ED be1an pumpin1 out new mone9D ration stamps replace, the :ree mar-etD the blacmar-et o;ercame shorta1esD an, the in:lationar9 era be1an. <hat was a lon1 time a1o. /ut the 8-+a;e is heral,e, as a !% to (%-9ear c9cleD or e;en more speci:icall9D a !4-9ear c9cle. <hatLs the entire c9cleD trou1h to trou1h or pea- to pea-. >he :#2a=e su&&osedl; should
ha=e bottomed in 1.''H risen <or 2, ;ears P1.+0FH declined in economic contraction until 1.-,H and boomed therea<ter. >he &ea3 should there<ore be in 201(. >here is a &roblem here% the c;clical decline <rom 1.+0 to 1.-,. It ne=er materialized. 8rices 3e&t risingH escalating with a =engeance a<ter 1.+-H then slowing somewhat C Lust in time <or the longest stoc3 mar3et boom in $merican histor;% 1.-2C2000. =8D sa; the :#2a=ers% letGs e)tend the c;cle to +0 ;ears. 9ine. 6etGs do Lust that. BoomH 1.'2C+2R bustH 1.+'C.'R boomH 1..(C202(. Does this corres&ond to an;thing that ha&&ened in $merican economic histor; since 1.'2S 1o.
4ore em&irical e=i 1orth +/2, CGar9D economist an, publisher an, 6hD in histor9 :rom the Uni;ersit9 o: Cali:orniaD 0i;ersi,eD <he
.9th o: the 8on,ratie:: +a;eD http:33www.lewroc-well.com3north3north"2!.htmlD (32"3%$D AD: "3(3%$I &C Bou ma9 thin- that 2 am ,e;otin1 wa9 too much space to this. /ut 2 want m9 rea,ers to un,erstan, wh9 :ondratie<< was wron1 in 1$2!. >is &o&ularizers were e=en more wrong in 1.,*C-*H with their IidealizedI chartH and their contem&orar; heirsG unwillingness to learn <rom the <act that the downward &hase o< the c;cle is now (( ;ears late. It should ha=e begun no later than :enned;Gs administration% 1$32V3%G1$(2. >his assumes that the original downward &hase was due in 1.'2. It wasnGt. It was due around 1.2+ : 1#$(V3%G1$2(. It should ha=e lasted until 1.*+. But 1.(*C,' was a boom eraH with mild recessions and remar3able economic growth &er ca&ita. 9orget about a :#2a=e which is going to &roduce &rice de<lation. >he 9ederal 5eser=e S;stem remains in control. )orr9 about that. It is creating new mone;. 4on1-term price ,e:lation o: !R per annum is not in the car,s or the charts A an9where. 2 recommen, that 9ou not ta-e seriousl9 ar1uments to the contrar9 that are base, on the latest up,ate, ;ersion o: the 8-+a;e. >he :#2a=e <orecasted that secular de<lation was Lust around the cornerH re&eatedl;H e=er since 1.'2. It wasnGt.

Scholars
Im&acts# Econ Good# $2% 2ar# Goldstein# 2a=e theor;

:ondratie<< wa=e theor; <ails C creator e=en admits the theor; is <alse 1orth +/2, CGar9D economist an, publisher an, 6hD in histor9 :rom the Uni;ersit9 o: Cali:orniaD 0i;ersi,eD <he
.9th o: the 8on,ratie:: +a;eD http:33www.lewroc-well.com3north3north"2!.htmlD (32"3%$D AD: "3(3%$I &C :ondratie<< admitted that there was no theoretical basis <or his c;cle. @e also admitted that some o< the &rice data re=ealed no traces in his c;cle. >e selecte, two 1roups o: Kelements o: economic realit9DK as he calle, them. <his is :rom <he 4on1 +a;e C9cle C0ichar,son @ )n9,erD 1$#4I. >he elements o< the <irst grou& were characterized b; the <act thatH along with the <luctuating &rocessesH their d;namic did not mani<est an; general growth or decline Csecular tren,ID or else that trend was scarcel; noticeable A at an9 rateD :or the perio, un,er
obser;ation Cp. 33I. +hat was he tal-in1 aboutF 7or one thin1D commo,it9 prices. >e a,mitte,: K2n processin1 the statistics on the ,9namics o: the series o: this 1roupD 2 use, simple anal9tical metho,s to brin1 out the lon1 c9clesK Cp. 33I. 2n shortD he manipulate, the e;i,ence until he obtaine, a pattern. >e sai, he :oun, patterns in other statistics. /ut was there an un,erl9in1 economic realit9D Ksome real tren,s in economic ,e;elopmentF <his is a ;er9 bi1 NuestionD an, 2 cannot now eluci,ate it.K Bet this is the heart o: his suppose, c9cle. K+e ,o not ha;e a metho, :or ,eterminin1 how accuratel9 a theoretical cur;e re:lects real e;olutionar9-economic tren,sK Cp. 3!I. $ll that he could <ind in the &ig iron and lead statistics was one and a hal< or ma;be two c;cles Cp. !2I. . . . we ,i, not succee, at all i: :in,in1 lon1 c9cles in the ,9namics o: cotton consumption in 7ranceD an, wool an, su1ar pro,uction in the Unite, )tatesD or in the ,9namics o: certain other series Cp. !#I. As has alrea,9 been note,D in m9 own in;esti1ation 2 ,isco;ere, series in whose ,9namics there were no lon1 c9cles Cp. (2I. As :or the pattern o: the lon1 c9cleD 7irstD 2 emphasiJe its empirical character: as suchD it is lac-in1 in precision an, certainl9 allows o: e ceptions. )econ,D in presentin1 it 2 am absolutel9 ,isincline, to belie;e that it o::ers an9 e planation o: the causes o: the lon1 c9cles Cpp. (#A($I. @e was <ran3
about the e)treme limitations on his data and his <indings. >is ,isciples are not.
De&ression em&iricall; &ro=es :#wa=e =alidit; Barano= - CEric ?onD 7oun,er @ CE= o: <he 8on,rat9e; <heor9 4etterD An 2ntro,uctionD
http:33www.-on,rat9e;.com3re:erence3theor9He plaine,.htmD 1333%#D AD: "3(3%$I &C >e was arreste, in 1$3% an, sentence, to the 0ussian Gula1 CprisonIU his sentence was re;iewe, in 1$3#D an, he recei;e, the ,eath penalt9D which it is speculate, was carrie, out that same 9ear. :ondratie<<0s maLor &remise was that ca&italist economies dis&la;ed long wa=e c;cles o< boom and bus; ranging between *0#+0 ;ears in duration. 8on,ratie::'s stu,9 co;ere, the perio, 1"#$ to 1$2( an, was centere, on prices an, interest rates. :ondratie<<0s theories documented in the 1.200s were =alidated with the de&ression less than 10 ;ears later. >oda;H we are <aced with another :ondratie<< 2inter Pde&ressionF when the maLorit; o< the world antici&ates economic e)&ansion. Each in,i;i,ual nee,s to wei1h the ris- o: ,epression in li1ht o: 8on,ratie::Ls wor-.
@istorical e=idence &ro=es the :#wa=e theor; >a;lor */12 C&a9D <a9lor >ar, .one9 A,;isorsD 8on,ratie:: +inter 2s >ereF 2s <his the Greater DepressionD
http:33www.mo,a;o .com3;oiceamerica3;episo,e.asp Fai,G3#122D !3123%$D AD: "3!3%$I &C 1ations and their economies run through *0 to ,0 ;ear credit e)&ansion/contraction c;cles 3nown as a :ondratie<< wa=e. )pecial 1uest Ian GordonH Chairman o< 6ong 2a=e Grou& and economic historian tells /a; >a;lor wh; the !.S. and the global econom; has entered into a credit contraction that will be as bad or worse than the de<lationar; de&ression o< the 1.'0s. 2an will e plain wh9 &olices geared to stimulating the econom; will not onl; <ail but will &lunge us e=en dee&er into a &rice colla&sing de&ression. 2an will e plain wh9 he is betting on de<lationH not in<lation and wh;H in this en=ironmentH gold mining will be a &ort<olio sa=ior as it was during the Great De&ression when the Dow to gold ratio a&&roached 1%1 . 2an tells wh9 he belie=es the Dow to gold ratio ma; well <all to an e=en more remar3able 0.2*%1.0 in this de&ression and wh; gold stoc3s will ma3e their owners trul; wealth;. 2an ma9 also name a :ew o: his :a;orite 1ol, minin1 stoc-s. www.lon1wa;e1roup.com

Scholars
Im&acts# Econ Good# S&ace =sn 2

Economic growth is 3e; to e)&anding s&ace e)&loration Elhe<naw; - C*a,erD pro: P u o: .iamiD The S+ace Re#iewD )ep 2$-#D
http:33www.thespacere;iew.com3article3122%31 I E<
1o less im&ortant is the e)&ansion o< the economic base that would ha=e to su&&ort such endea=ors D a point which rarel9 1ets much attention. <here is an ob;ious reason wh9 that approach is o:ten i1nore,: the common claim that the limits to growth on Earth mandate a turn to the e)&loitation o< s&ace. C)uch ar1uments are not e clusi;e to the writers o: the 1$"%s. &ohn ). 4ewis posits that the :ailure to ,o so will mean Tci;iliJation collapses to subsistence a1riculture b9 2%3%Q in his 1$$( boo- .inin1 the )-9.I >owe;erD this is <ar <rom being the onl; reason. >he &lain truth is that rel;ing on terrestrial economic e)&ansion to endow us with the resources <or e=entual s&ace e)&ansion will mean a,mittin1 the most e citin1 thin1s are :urther o:: than we woul, li-eD outsi,e the time :rame o: Tmeanin1:ulQ ,iscussions o: what public polic9 shoul, be or what pri;ate business can ,o. /esi,esD it ma-es :or a less compellin1 an, attracti;e stor9 than the i,ea o: a technolo1ical re;olution Eust o;er the horiJon that opens up the hea;ens to all o: usSespeciall9 i: one is a mar-et romantic when it comes to these matters Csee T.ar-et romanticism an, the outloo- :or pri;ate space ,e;elopmentQD <he )pace 0e;iewD )eptember 2D 2%%#I *onethelessD that is what one woul, ha;e to assume 1i;en the state o: the art. A,,itionall9D howe;erD while s&ace launch costs Can, otherD relate, costsI ma; dro& in real terms in the coming decadesH it is sa<e to sa; that an; =iable <uture s&ace<aring societ; will also see them dro& mar3edl; in relati=e terms . <he Unite, *ations pre,icts the rise o: Gross +orl, 6ro,uct CG+6I to about O14% trillion b9 2%!%D more than twice to,a9's le;elD an, this is still rather conser;ati;e ne t to some pre;ious perio,s o: comparable len1th. $ re&eat o< the growth o< 1.*0C1..0H <or instanceH would li3el; result in a G28 in the K2*0C '*0 trillion range. $nd o< courseH i< one goes in <or that sort o< thin3ingH the growth we could realize i< the &redictions o< <uturists li3e 5a; :urzweil &an out would absolutel; e)&lode those numbers. =: courseD some caution is in or,er. Gi;en the challen1es the worl, now :acesD inclu,in1 ti1ht ener19 suppliesD ecolo1ical ,e1ra,ationD an, :inancial instabilit9 Can, the hu1e uncertainties in;ol;e, in not Eust spaceD but other technolo1ies li-e molecular en1ineerin1 an, roboticsID it is eas9 to picture e;en the mo,est numbers supplie, b9 the U* pro;in1 o;eroptimistic.
$n increased s&ace budget is 3e; to nuclear &ro&ulsion# 3e; to mars 6emos , C0obertD $32%D Thttp://www.wired.com/print/science/space/news/2007/09/space_nukesI E<
K2e need to restart de=elo&ment into nuclear &ro&ulsionDK sai, .aureen >eathD ;ice presi,ent o: *orthrup GrummanLs Ci;il )pace ,i;ision. K>his is an area where we need to s&end more resources to enable the ne t era o: e ploration.I 1uclear &ower and &ro&ulsion <or s&acecra<t are nothing new . )ince the 1$(%sD the Unite, )tates has ha, the capabilities to launch ;ehicles powere, b9 ra,ioacti;e materials. E periment pac-a1es on man9 o: the Apollo missions use, nuclear power s9stems as well. 2n 2%%(D *A)A shut ,own most o: its research into nuclear propulsion technolo1iesD a proEect the a1enc9 ha, ,ubbe, 6rometheus. <he a1enc9 ha, contracte, with *orthrup GrummanD /oein1 an, 4oc-hee, .artin to propose :uture propulsion s9stems base, on nuclear power.1uclear &ro&ulsion encom&asses an; technolog; that uses a nuclear reactor to &ro=ide the energ; <or a roc3et engine. >he best#3nown engines are nuclear#thermal roc3ets D which use nuclear ener19 to heat a roc-et propellantD an, nuclear-electric propulsionD which uses the 1enerator to ioniJe a propellant. /oth outper:orm current chemical-base, roc-ets an, are currentl9 un,er consi,eration onl9 :or space:li1htD not :or li:tin1 a roc-et :rom the 1roun, to orbit. Usin1 a nuclear reactor :or propulsion also sol;es ener19 problems :or missions to the outer planets. Gettin1 power :rom solar ener19 becomes increasin1l9 problematic the :arther the probe tra;els :rom the sun. *uclear power woul, allow probes to sta9 acti;e throu1h planetar9 ni1hts an, not be threatene, b9 an9 loss o: li1ht -- as happene, ,urin1 the recent san,storms on .ars that almost ,oome, the two .artian ro;ers. K2hen &eo&le go to 4arsH there is not enough sunlightI to satis<; the &ower reJuirementsD sai, )cott >orowitJD associate a,ministrator :or *A)ALs E ploration )9stems .ission Directorate. KDou are in a &lace where ;ou need nuclear.K*A)ALs latest probeD the Dawn mission to the asteroi,s ?esta an, Ceres in the asteroi, beltD uses a solar-powere, ion ,ri;e :or propulsion. /9 usin1 a nuclear ;ersionD the probe coul, 1et to the asteroi,s more Nuic-l9 an, ha;e better an, more-power:ul scienti:ic instrumentsD in,ustr9 e perts sai,. K.appin1 missions that e plore multiple celestial bo,ies li-e cometsD asteroi,s an, moons are ma,e possible b9 the hi1hl9 e::icient use o: propellant that nuclear propulsion o::ersDK *orthrup Grumman sai, in a statement sent to +ire, *ews. K<he a;ailable electrical power use, :or propulsion can also operate ;astl9 more comple scienti:ic instruments an, return hun,re,s to thousan,s o: times more scienti:ic ,ata than other technolo1ies.K Because o< the concernsD as well as <unding cutbac3sH 1$S$ has re<ocused its 8rometheus nuclear &rogram to
concentrate on creating a &ower generator that would satis<; the needs o< the <irst lunar out&ost. $d=ancing the technolog; o< nuclear &ro&ulsion will ha=e to waitH said 1$S$Gs @orowitz. I5ight nowH itGs not in the budgetD because we ,onLt ha;e the bu,1et to ,o itDK he sai,. K/ut the9 Cthe scientistsI are wor-in1 on an important
pieceD so the9 are still en1a1e,.

Scholars
1'0 Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Good# S&ace =sn 2

4ars is the onl; &lace we ha=e a<ter earth# 3e; to human sur=i=al Qubrin .+ C:ormer Chairman o: the *ational )pace )ociet9D an, 6resi,ent o: the .ars )ociet9D 0obertD A, AstraD
T<he Case :or ColoniJin1 .arsDQ &ul93Au1ustD http:33nss.or13settlement3mars3Jubrin-coloniJe.htmlI E< $mong e)traterrestrial bodies in our solar s;stemH 4ars is singular in that it &ossesses all the raw materials reJuired to su&&ort not onl; li<eH but a new branch o< human ci=ilization . <his uniNueness is
illustrate, most clearl9 i: we contrast .ars with the EarthLs .oonD the most :reNuentl9 cite, alternati;e location :or e traterrestrial human coloniJation. In contrast to the 4oonH 4ars is rich in carbonH nitrogenH h;drogen and o);genH all in biologicall; readil; accessible <orms such as carbon dio)ide gasD nitro1en 1asD an, water ice an, perma:rost. CarbonD nitro1enD an, h9,ro1en are onl9 present on the .oon in parts per million NuantitiesD much li-e 1ol, in seawater. = 91en is abun,ant on the .oonD but onl9 in ti1htl9 boun, o i,es such as silicon ,io i,e C)i=2ID :errous o i,e C7e2=3ID ma1nesium o i,e C.1=ID an, aluminum o i,e CAl2=3ID which reNuire ;er9 hi1h ener19 processes to re,uce . Current 3nowledge indicates that
i< 4ars were smooth and all its ice and &erma<rost melted into liJuid waterH the entire &lanet would be co=ered with an ocean o=er 100 meters dee&. >his contrasts strongl; with the 4oonH which is so dr; that i< concrete were <ound thereH 6unar colonists would mine it to get the water out. <husD i: plants coul, be 1rown in 1reenhouses on the .oon Can unli-el9 propositionD as weL;e seenI most o: their biomass material woul, ha;e to be importe,. >he 4oon is also de<icient in about hal< the metals o< interest to industrial societ; CcopperD :or e ampleID as well as man9 other elements o: interest such as sul:ur an, phosphorus. .ars has e;er9 reNuire, element in abun,ance. .oreo;erD on 4arsH as on EarthH h;drologic and =olcanic &rocesses ha=e occurred that are li3el; to ha=e consolidated =arious elements into local concentrations o< high#grade mineral ore. 2n,ee,D the 1eolo1ic histor9 o: .ars has been compare, to that o: A:ricaD with
;er9 optimistic in:erences as to its mineral wealth implie, as a corollar9. 2n contrastD the .oon has ha, ;irtuall9 no histor9 o: water or ;olcanic actionD with the result that it is basicall9 compose, o: trash roc-s with ;er9 little ,i::erentiation into ores that represent use:ul concentrations o: an9thin1 interestin1. Dou can generate &ower on either the 4oon or 4ars with solar &anelsH an, here the a,;anta1es o: the .oonLs clearer s-ies an, closer pro imit9 to the )un than .ars rou1hl9 balances the ,isa,;anta1e o: lar1e ener19 stora1e reNuirements create, b9 the .oonLs 2#-,a9 li1ht-,ar- c9cle. /ut i: 9ou wish to manu:acture solar panelsD so as to create a sel:-e pan,in1 power baseD .ars hol,s an enormous a,;anta1eD as onl9 .ars possesses the lar1e supplies o: carbon an, h9,ro1en nee,e, to pro,uce the pure silicon reNuire, :or pro,ucin1 photo;oltaic panels an, other electronics. 2n a,,itionD .ars has the potential :or win,-1enerate, power while the .oon clearl9 ,oes not. /ut both solar an, win, o::er relati;el9 mo,est power potential S tens or at most hun,re,s o: -ilowatts here or there. <o create a ;ibrant ci;iliJation 9ou nee, a richer power baseD an, this .ars has both in the short an, me,ium term in the :orm o: its 1eothermal power resourcesD which o::er potential :or lar1e numbers o: locall9 create, electricit9 1eneratin1 stations in the 1% .+ C1%D%%% -ilowattI class. 2n the lon1-termD .ars will enEo9 a power-rich econom9 base, upon e ploitation o: its lar1e ,omestic resources o: ,euterium :uel :or :usion reactors. Deuterium is :i;e times more common on .ars than it is on EarthD an, tens o: thousan,s o: times more common on .ars than on the .oon. But on 4ars there is an atmos&here
thic3 enough to &rotect cro&s grown on the sur<ace <rom solar <lare. >here<oreH thin#walled in<latable &lastic greenhouses &rotected b; un&ressurized !A#resistant hard#&lastic shield domes can be used to ra&idl; create cro&land on the sur<ace. E;en without the problems o: solar :lares an, month-lon1 ,iurnal c9cleD such simple
1reenhouses woul, be impractical on the .oon as the9 woul, create unbearabl9 hi1h temperatures. =n .arsD in contrastD the stron1 1reenhouse e::ect create, b9 such ,omes woul, be precisel9 what is necessar9 to pro,uce a temperate climate insi,e. )uch ,omes up to !% meters in ,iameter are li1ht enou1h to be transporte, :rom Earth initiall9D an, later on the9 can be manu:acture, on .ars out o: in,i1enous materials. /ecause all the resources to ma-e plastics e ist on .arsD networ-s o: such !%- to 1%%-meter ,omes coul,be rapi,l9 manu:acture, an, ,eplo9e,D openin1 up lar1e areas o: the sur:ace to both shirtslee;e human habitation an, a1riculture. <hatLs Eust the be1innin1D because it will e;entuall9 be possible :or humans to substantiall9 thic-en .arsL atmosphere b9 :orcin1 the re1olith to out1as its contents throu1h a ,eliberate pro1ram o: arti:iciall9 in,uce, 1lobal warmin1. =nce that has been accomplishe,D the habitation ,omes coul, be ;irtuall9 an9 siJeD as the9 woul, not ha;e to sustain a pressure ,i::erential between their interior an, e terior. 2n :actD once that has been ,oneD it will be possible to raise speciall9 bre, crops outsi,e the ,omes. <he point to be ma,e is that unli-e colonists on an9 -nown e traterrestrial bo,9D 4artian colonists will be able to li=e on the sur<aceH not in tunnelsH and
mo=e about <reel; and grow cro&s in the light o< da;. 4ars is a &lace where humans can li=e and multi&l; to large numbersH su&&orting themsel=es with &roducts o< e=er; descri&tion made out o< indigenous materials. 4ars is thus a &lace where an actual ci=ilizationD not Eust a minin1 or scienti:ic outpostD can be de=elo&ed. An, si1ni:icantl9 :or interplanetar9 commerceD .ars an, Earth are the onl9 two locations in the solar s9stem
where humans will be able to 1row crops :or e port.

Scholars
Im&acts# Econ Good# 8roli<

Economic growth sol=es &roli<eration Burrows and 2indram .( C+illiam @ 0obertD Critical 4assD p. 4$1-4$2I 44
Economics is in man9 respects &roli<eration0s catal;st. As we ha;e note,D economic des&eration dri=es 0ussia an, some o: the :ormer +arsaw 6act nations to &eddle wea&ons and technolog;. <he possibilit9 o: consi,erable pro:its or at least balance, international pa9ments also prompts <hir, +orl, countries li-e ChinaD /raJilD an, 2srael to ,o the same. EconomicsD as well as such relate, issues as o;erpopulationD ,ri;e proli:eration Eust as surel9 as ,o purel9 political moti;es. Un:ortunatel9D that subEect is be9on, the scope o: this boo-. )u::ice it to sa9 thatD all thin1s bein1 eNualD well-o:D relati=el; secure societies li3e toda;0s /a&an are less li3el; to bu; or sell su&erwea&on technolog; than those that are insecureH need;H or des&erate. !ltimatel;H sol=ing economic &roblemsD especiall9 as the9 are ,ri;en b9 population pressureD is the surest wa; to de<use &roli<eration and enhance true national securit;.
Economic a<<luence deters &roli<eration C 1: &ro=es /a&an >imes - C=ctober 23D 4e isI 44
South :oreaD which is enEo9in1 unprece,ente, prosperit9H is becoming increasingl; uncom<ortable with 1orth :oreansG economic des&air. 6robabl9 no two nei1hborin1 countries ha;e such a hu1e economic 1apD let alone countries that share the same ethnic an, historical bac-1roun,. <he ,an1er is that such a discre&anc; can become a source o< instabilit; and con<lict. >o o=ercome its economic de<iciencies and attain social stabilit;H the 1orth has no choice but to abandon its nuclear wea&ons &rogram and mo=e toward re<orm and greater o&enness. )outh 8orea is tr9in1 to persua,e the *orth to ma-e this strate1ic ,ecision. +e are more than willin1 to help the *orth achie;e economic 1rowthD which is almost alwa;s the source o< &eace and securit;. As suchD *orth 8oreaLs economic reco;er9 is ;ital :or an en,urin1 peace on the 8orean 6eninsula.
$ndH &roli< causes e)tinction <rom arms races and miscalculations !tgo<< 2 CDeput9 Director o: the )trate19 7orcesD an, 0esources Di;ision o: the 2nstitute :or De:ense Anal9sesD
?ictorD T6roli:erationD .issile De:enceD an, American AmbitionsDQ )ur;i;alD ?olume 44D *umber 2D )ummerI E< 2n sumD wi,esprea, &roli<eration is li-el9 to lea, to an occasional shoot-out with nuclear weaponsD an, that such shoot#outs will ha=e a substantial &robabilit; o< escalating to the ma)imum destruction &ossible with the weapons at han,. Unless nuclear proli:eration is stoppe,D we are headed toward a world that will mirror the American +il, +est o: theD late 1#%%s. 2ith mostH i: not allD nations wearing nuclear Gsi)# shootersG on their hi&sD the worl, ma9 e;en be a more polite place than it is to,a9D but e=er; once in a while we will all gather on a hill to bur; the bodies o< dead cities or e=en whole nations.

Scholars
Im&acts# Econ Good# >errorism

Economic colla&se leads to terrorism BremmerH .C2anD - 6resi,ent o: the Eurasia GroupD sr. :ellow P +orl, 6olic9 2nstituteD D 3343%$D Forei n Polic"$
http:33eurasia.:orei1npolic9.com3posts32%%$3%33%43theH1lobalHrecessionHhei1htensHterroristHris-sI E< /ut thereLs another reason wh9 the <inancial crisis heightens the ris3 o< global terrorism. 4ilitants thri=e in &laces where no one is <ull; in charge. <he 1lobal recession threatens to create more such places. *o matter how cohesi;e an, ,etermine, a terrorist organizationD it needs a su&&orti=e en=ironment in which to <lourish . <hat means a
location that pro;i,es a stea,9 stream o: :un,s an, recruits an, the support Cor at least acceptanceI o: the local population. .uch o: the counter-terrorist success weL;e seen in 2raNLs al Anbar pro;ince o;er the past two 9ears is a ,irect result o: an increase, willin1ness o: local 2raNis to help the 2raNi arm9 an, U) troops oust the militants operatin1 there. 2n partD thatLs because the areaLs tribal lea,ers ha;e their own incenti;es Cinclu,in1 pa9ment in cash an, weaponr9I :or cooperatin1 with occupation :orces. /ut itLs also because :orei1n militants ha;e alienate, the locals. <he securit9 ,eterioration o: the past 9ear in 6a-istan an, A:1hanistan re:lects e actl9 the opposite phenomenon. 2n the re1ion alon1 both si,es o: their share, bor,erD local tribal lea,ers ha;e 9et to e press much interest in helpin1 6a-istani an, *A<= sol,iers tar1et local or :orei1n militants. 7or those with the power to either protect or betra9 the senior al-Qae,a lea,ers belie;e, to be hi,in1 in the re1ionD *A<= an, 6a-istani authorities ha;e 9et to :in, either sweet enou1h carrots or sharp enou1h stic-s to shi:t alle1iances. >he slowdown threatens to slow the &rogress o< a number o< de=elo&ing countries . .ost states donGt &ro=ide ground as <ertile <or militanc; as &laces li3e $<ghanistanH SomaliaH and Demen. But as more &eo&le lose their LobsD their homesD an, opportunities :or prosperit9 -- in emer1in1 mar-et countries or e;en within minorit9 communities insi,e ,e;elope, states -- it becomes easier <or local militants to <ind =olunteers . <his is wh9 the growing ris3 o< attac3 <rom suicide bombers and well#trained gunmen in 8a3istan creates
ris3s that e)tend be;ond South $sia. >his is a countr; that is home to lawless regions where local and international militants thri=eH nuclear wea&ons and materialH a histor; o< nuclear smugglingH a cash# star=ed go=ernmentH and a deteriorating econom; . 6a-istan is :ar :rom the onl9 countr9 in which terrorism threatens to
spill across bor,ers.

Scholars
1'' Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Good# >errorism I/6

Econ decline leads to terrorism Bremmer .
C2an D presi,ent o: Eurasia GroupD a political-ris- consultanc9D Forei n A&&airsD 3.4.$D http:33eurasia.:orei1npolic9.com3posts32%%$3%33%43theH1lobalHrecessionHhei1htensHterroristHris-sI E<
2n the 6a-istani cit9 o: 4ahore on <ues,a9D a ,oJen 1unmen attac-e, a bus carr9in1 members o: )ri 4an-aLs cric-et teamD -illin1 si policemen an, a ,ri;er an, inEurin1 se;eral o: the athletes. 6ress accounts o: the assault su11est a le;el o: coor,ination similar to that use, b9 the 6a-istan-base, militants who -ille, 1"3 people at se;eral sites in .umbai in )eptember. Across 6a-istanD suici,e bombers -ille, two people in 2%%!D si in 2%%(D !( in 2%%"D an, (1 in 2%%#. )uici,e attac-ers -ille, more people in 6a-istan last 9ear than in either 2raN or A:1hanistan. >here are two im&ortant reasons wh; the threat o< global terrorism is growing. >he <irst is long#term and structural. >he second is more directl; tied to the global <inancial crisis. /oth ha;e e;er9thin1 to ,o with whatLs happenin1 in 6a-istan. 7irstD a report release, in December :rom the U.). Commission on the 6re;ention o: +eapons o: .ass DestructionD 6roli:erationD an, <errorism hints at both sets o: problems. <he report notes an increasin1 suppl9 o: nuclear technolo19 an, material aroun, the worl, an, warns that Kwithout 1reater ur1enc9 an, ,ecisi;e action b9 the worl, communit9D it is more li3el; than not that a wea&on o< mass destruction will be used in a terrorist attac3
somewhere in the world b; the end o< 201'.IDestructi=e Pand &otentiall; destructi=eF technologies are now more accessible than at an; time in histor; <or small grou&s and e=en indi=iduals. >his will dramaticall; increase the baseline threat o< disru&ti=e =iolence <rom non#state actors o=er time. ItGs not Lust biological and nuclear material. G6) trac-in1 ,e;ices help pirates operatin1 o:: )omaliaLs coast ;enture :urther :rom shore an, un,erta-e increasin1l9 ambitious attac-s on pri;ate an, commercial ;essels. )econ, D itGs unli3el; that weGll see the Igreater urgenc; and decisi=e action b; the world communit;I calle, :or in the report. 7or the momentD political
lea,ers aroun, the worl, are too bus9 wrestlin1 with the e::ects o: the 1lobal :inancial crisis on their ,omestic economies Can, their political stan,in1I to coor,inate action a1ainst such a ,i::use threat. But thereGs another reason wh; the <inancial crisis
heightens the ris3 o< global terrorism. 4ilitants thri=e in &laces where no one is <ull; in charge. >he global recession threatens to create more such &laces. 1o matter how cohesi=e and determined a terrorist organizationH it needs a su&&orti=e en=ironment in which to <lourish . <hat means a location that
pro;i,es a stea,9 stream o: :un,s an, recruits an, the support Cor at least acceptanceI o: the local population. .uch o: the counterterrorist success weL;e seen in 2raNLs al Anbar pro;ince o;er the past two 9ears is a ,irect result o: an increase, willin1ness o: local 2raNis to help the 2raNi arm9 an, U) troops oust the militants operatin1 there. 2n partD thatLs because the areaLs tribal lea,ers ha;e their own incenti;es Cinclu,in1 pa9ment in cash an, weaponr9I :or cooperatin1 with occupation :orces. /ut itLs also because :orei1n militants ha;e alienate, the locals. <he securit9 ,eterioration o: the past 9ear in 6a-istan an, A:1hanistan re:lects e actl9 the opposite phenomenon. 2n the re1ion alon1 both si,es o: their share, bor,erD local tribal lea,ers ha;e 9et to e press much interest in helpin1 6a-istani an, *A<= sol,iers tar1et local or :orei1n militants. 7or those with the power to either protect or betra9 the senior al-Qae,a lea,ers belie;e, to be hi,in1 in the re1ionD *A<= an, 6a-istani authorities ha;e 9et to :in, either sweet enou1h carrots or sharp enou1h stic-s to shi:t alle1iances. <he slow,own threatens to slow the pro1ress o: a number o: ,e;elopin1 countries. .ost states ,onLt pro;i,e 1roun, as :ertile :or militanc9 as places li-e A:1hanistanD )omaliaD an, Bemen. /ut as more &eo&le lose their LobsH their
homesH and o&&ortunities <or &ros&erit; ## in emerging mar3et countries or e=en within minorit; communities inside de=elo&ed states ## it becomes easier <or local militants to <ind =olunteers. >his is wh; the growing ris3 o< attac3 <rom suicide bombers and well#trained gunmen in 8a3istan creates ris3s that e)tend be;ond South $sia. <his is a countr9 that is home to lawless re1ions where local and international militants thri=eH nuclear wea&ons and materialH a histor; o< nuclear smugglingH a cash#star=ed go=ernmentH and a deteriorating econom;. 6a-istan is :ar :rom the onl9 countr9 in which terrorism threatens to spill across
bor,ers. /ut thereLs a reason wh9 the securit9 threats :lowin1 bac- an, :orth across the A:1han-6a-istani bor,er ran- so hi1hl9 on Eurasia GroupLs list o: top political ris-s :or 2%%$ -- an, wh9 the9 remain near the top o: the =bama a,ministrationLs securit9 a1en,a.

Scholars
1'( Econ Growth Good/Bad

Growth sol=es terrorism Schae<er 2001 C/rett D.D &a9 8in1ham 7ellow in 2nternational 0e1ulator9 A::airs in the Center :or 2nternational
<ra,e an, Economics at <he >erita1e 7oun,ationD >erita1e 7oun,ation /ac-1roun,er \1!%#D KE pan, 7ree,om to Counter <errorismKD December (D http:2lwww.herita1e.or1l0esearchbbra,ean,7orei1nAi,3/Gi !%#.c:mI <he go=ernments o< those countries must be held resl&onsible <or &olicies that undermine or o&&ose <reedomH sti<le economic JrowthH and hel& create the circumstances under which terrorism <lourishes. AmericaLs battle in A:1hanistan a1ainst the <aliban re1ime an, al-Qae,a terrorist networ- is merel9 the :irst s-irmish in a lon1 war. I< the war on terrorism is to be wonH and i< this =ictor; is to be sustainableH $merica must <ocus on encouraging the Jo=ernments o< de=elo&ing countries to embrace economic libert; in order to counter the &o=ert; and des&eration u&on which terrorist Jrou&s de&end.

Scholars
1'* Econ Growth Good/Bad

Economic decline leads to increased ris3 o< nuclear terrorism 2arric3H - C&ob9D sta:: writerD !ashin ton PostD 1131!3%#I
Intelligence o<<icials are warning that the dee&ening global <inancial crisis could wea3en <ragile go=ernments in the worldGs most dangerous areas and undermine the abilit; o< the !nited States an, its allies to res&ond to a new wa=e o< securit; threats. U.). 1o;ernment o::icials an, pri;ate anal9sts sa9 the economic turmoil has heightened the short-term ris3 o< a terrorist attac3H as radical grou&s &robe <or wea3ening border &rotections and new ga&s in de<enses. $ &rotracted <inancial crisis could threaten the sur=i=al o< <riendl; regimes <rom 8a3istan to the 4iddle East while <orcing 2estern nations to cut s&ending on de<enseH intelligence and <oreign aidD the sources sai,. <he crisis coul, also accelerate the shi:t to a more Asia-centric 1lobeD as risin1 powers such as China 1ain more le;era1e o;er international :inancial institutions an, 1reater in:luence in worl, capitals. Some o< the more troubling and immediate scenarios anal;sts are weighing in=ol=e nuclear#armed 8a3istanD which alrea,9 was bein1 battere, b9 in:lation an, unemplo9ment be:ore the 1lobal :inancial tsunami hit. )ince )eptemberD 6a-istan has seen its national currenc9 ,e;alue, an, its har,-currenc9 reser;es nearl9 wipe, out. Anal9sts also worr9 about the impact o: plummetin1 cru,e prices on oil-,epen,ent nations such as BemenD which has a lar1e population o: unemplo9e, 9ouths an, a histor9 o: support :or militant 2slamic 1roups. <he un,erl9in1 problems an, tren,s -- especiall9 regional instabilit; an, the wanin1 in:luence o: the +est -- were alrea,9 well establishe,D but the9 are now Ibeing accelerated b; the current global <inancial crisisDK the nationLs top intelli1ence o::icialD Director o: *ational 2ntelli1ence .i-e .cConnellD sai, in a recent speech. .cConnell is amon1 se;eral top U.). intelli1ence o::icials warnin1 that ,eep cuts in militar9 an, intelli1ence bu,1ets coul, un,ermine the countr9Ls abilit9 to anticipate an, ,e:en, a1ainst new threats.

Scholars
1'+ Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Good# @eg

Downturn in econ causes s&ending cuts that destro; heg >hom&son . C4orenD chie: e ecuti;e o::icer o: 4e in1tonD Arme, 7orces &ournalD .ar $D
http:33www.arme,:orcesEournal.com32%%$3%333$22!!1I E< $s i< all this were not enoughH the &arts o< the de<ense &rogram that are &oliticall; easiest to cut S the in;estment accounts V are the &arts that contribute most tangibl; to lon1-term militar9 power. I< militar; &a; and bene<its are slashedH the conseJuences are <elt Juic3l; in the <ield and on Ca&itol @ill. >he same is true i< readiness accounts are cut. 2ith militar; health care costs ha=ing risen 1(( &ercent during the &resent decadeH there are com&elling reasons to tr; to restrain their <urther growth Cone 6enta1on panel calle, cost increases in militar9 health care an Te istential threatQ to the :uture ,e:ense posture F. But in=estment in the <uture is almost alwa;s easier to cut than current consum&tionH because the near#term conseJuences in the <ield are im&erce&tibleH and the domestic im&act is <elt in onl; a hand<ul o< congressional districts. >he bottom lineH thenH is that the current de<ense &rogram will &robabl; not be sustainable i< the decline o< the econom; continuesH and when the cutting begins to bring militar; outla;s into closer alignment with a=ailable resourcesH the <irst items to go will be those that contribute most to the nation0s long# term militar; &ower. In other wordsH the erosion o< national economic &ower will be &aced b; the erosion o< national militar; &ower.
Economic downturn destro;s heg 8a&e . C0obert D poli sci Pu o: Chica1oD Chica o TribuneD 3.#.$D
http:33www.chica1otribune.com3news3nationworl,3chi-perspec%3%#,iplomac9mar%#D%D4"#!((1.stor9I E< 9or nearl; two decadesH the !.S. has been =iewed as a global hegemonS;astl9 more power:ul than an9 maEor countr9 in the worl,. )ince 2%%%D howe=erH our global dominance has <allen dramaticall; . Durin1 the /ush a,ministrationD the sel:-in:licte, woun,s o: the 2raN warD growing go=ernment debtH increasingl; negati=e current account balances and other internal economic wea3nesses cost the !.S. real &ower in a world o< ra&idl; s&reading 3nowledge and technolog;. Sim&l; &utH the main legac; o< the Bush ;ears has been to lea=e the !.S. as a declining &ower. 9rom 5ome to the !nited States toda;H the rise and <all o< great nations ha=e been dri=en &rimaril; b; economic strength. $t an; gi=en momentH a stateGs &ower de&ends on the size and Jualit; o< its militar; <orces and other &ower assets. ?=er timeH howe=erH &ower is a result o< economic strengthVthe &rereJuisite <or building and modernizing militar; <orces. An, so the siJe o: the econom9 relati;e to potential ri;als ultimatel9 ,etermines the limits o: power in international politics. >he &ower &osition o< the !.S. is crucial to the <oreign &olic; aims that it can achie=e. Since the Cold 2arH $merica has maintained a =ast arra; o< o=erseas commitmentsH see3ing to ensure &eace and stabilit; not Lust in its own neighborhoodD the +estern hemisphereD but also in EuropeD Asia an, the oil-rich 6ersian Gul:. .aintainin1
these commitments reNuires enormous resourcesD but American lea,ers in recent 9ears chose to pursue :ar more ambitious 1oals than merel9 maintainin1 the status Nuo.
$ndH hegemonic decline leads to transition wars C the im&act is e)tinction 1;e .0 C&oeD )ultan o: =man 6ro:essor o: 2nternational 0elations an, :ormer Dean o: the 8enne,9 )chool at
>ar;ar, an, one o: the most in:luential an, respecte, contemporar9 20 scholarsD p1 1"I E< 8erce&tions o< change in the relati=e &ower o< nations are o< critical im&ortance to un,erstan,in1 the relationship between ,ecline an, war. ?ne o< the oldest generalizations about international &olitics attributes the onset o< maLor wars to shi<ts in &ower among the leading nations. <hus <huc9,i,es accounte, :or the onset o: the 6eloponnesian +ar which ,estro9e, the power o: ancient Athens. <he histor; o: the interstate s9stem since 1!%% is &unctuated b; se=ere wars in which one countr; struggled to sur&ass another as the leading state. 2: as 0obert Gilpin ar1uesD international politics has not chan1e, :un,amentall9 o;er the millenniaD Tthe implications :or the :uture are blea-. An, i< <ears about shi<ting &ower &reci&itate a maLor war in a world with *0H000 nuclear wea&onsH histor; as we 3now it ma; end.

Scholars
1', Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Good# @eg# 4ore I/6

Economic growth is 3e; to hegVhistor; &ro=es. 8ietroburgo . CAnthon9D 6olitical )cientistD Apr 1%D $D http:33eJinearticles.com3F<he-En,-o:-American>e1emon9@i,G22%"3$!: A, "-(-$I /4 >owe;er we can learn :rom past he1emonic statesD all o: whichD withere, awa9 with time Eust as the American one is currentl9 in the process o: ,oin1. Great /ritain was perhaps the last true he1emon be:ore that o: the Unite, )tates. /acin 1#$% the collapse o: their empire ha, Eust be1an. Da;i, A. 4a-eLs research on the issue is wor- that shoul, be 1reatl9 anal9Je, ,ue to the illustrious similarities between the /ritish recession in to retirement an, the Unite, )tatesL as well. 7or much o: the 1$th centur9 Great /ritain was ,ominatin1 in the same :iel,s as the U.). ,i, so in the 1$!%Ls throu1h the late 1$"%Ls. )oon in the later 1#%%Ls <he Unite, )tates an, German9 mo;e, to a protectionist s9stem to plant their economic see,s an, soon a:ter were surpassin1 /ritish in,ustries an, abilities. >he industrial base o< Great Britain crumbled an, :orce, them to in;est hea;il9 in the ser;iceD shippin1 an, insurance sectors o: the econom9 Eust to brea--e;en when concernin1 their balance o: pa9ment statistics. 7or the time bein1 the /ritish were able to carr9 on with the poun, as the ,ominant worl, currenc9. >he <rail s;stem was alread; on the thinnest o< iceH when 22I con<ounded the wea3 British econom; C4a-e 122I. At the time o: Great /ritainLs rei1n o: power the9 also pursue, operations to completel9 open up an, liberaliJe the worl, econom9. <his ,i, lea, to substantial brie: economic abun,ance but e;entuall9 the stru11les o: remainin1 a stron1 enou1h power to be consi,ere, an absolute he1emon wore o::. @egemonic &owers are onl; sustainable during &eriods o< constant economic growth. 2hen growth is no longer the com&lete and utter status o< the hegemon;Gs economic <unctionalit; the &ower ceases to be consistent. 2e see this to be the case with Great Britain D as other worl, powers emer1e, an, cau1ht up in terms o: economic status an, in:luenceD /ritish power that was e erte, was much more e plicit an, coerci;eD Eust li-e it was ,urin1 the American he1emonic era un,er 6resi,ent *i on C4a-e 121I. 2t is sa:e to sa9 that the U.). is hea,e, ,own the same path that will e;entuall9 en, up bein1 the ultimate ,e-thronin1 o: the American empire an, itLs he1emonic capabilities. 2: 9ou thinbac- to all the complications that the Unite, )tates is e periencin1 in this ;er9 moment concernin1 ob;ious :inancial ,i::iculties an, others in the areas o: e,ucationD technolo1ical inno;ation an, healthcare respecti;el9. =ther nations ha;e clearl9 starte, their own catch up phase an, are impe,in1 on American power as we spea-. <he iron9 between the situations lea,in1 up to the collapse o: the /ritish he1emonic state an, the current bur,ens that are bein1 place, upon a contemptuous American he1emon are too similar :or coinci,ence. It too3 the disaster o< 22I to <inall; destabilize the British hegemon and the !nited States is one maLor crisis awa; <rom e)&eriencing the same <ate C/artilow 4ectureI.
Economic growth is 3e; to hegemon; @unt , C.ichaelD 6ro:essor o: >istor9 at the Uni;ersit9 o: *orth Carolina at Chapel >illD !.21."D
http:33hnn.us3articles33"4#(.htmlI E< 2: in the U.). case empire is 1eneticD hegemon; is an acJuired characteristic. @egemon; was made &ossible b; a rate o< economic growth o;er the course o: the nineteenth an, earl9 twentieth centuries that ha, no prece,ent in human histor9. >his achie=ement created the &reconditions <or a !.S.#ins&iredH designedH and regulated international s;stem that too- shape ,urin1 the :irst two thir,s o: the twentieth centur9. $merican economic an, cultural clout remade societies and resha&ed the &ractices o< dail; li<e around the world.

Scholars
1'Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Good# $2% China @eg >urn

China is not going to be able to com&ete with the !S long#termVlabor shortages. 9rench + C>owar,D Associate 6ro:essor o: &ournalism at Columbia Uni;ersit9D 7ormer 7orei1n Correspon,ent :or
the *B<D TAs China A1esD a )horta1e o: Cheap 4abor 4oomsDQ *ew Bor- <imesD &une 3%D 2%%(D http:33www.n9times.com32%%(3%(33%3worl,3asia33%a1in1.htmlD AD: "-(-$I >he worldGs most &o&ulous nationH which has built its economic strength on seemingl; endless su&&lies o< chea& laborH China ma; soon <ace man&ower shortages . An a1in1 population also poses ,i::icult political issues :or the Communist 1o;ernmentD which :irst encoura1e, a population e plosion in the 1$!%Ls an, then re;erse, course an, intro,uce, the so-calle, one-chil, polic9 a :ew 9ears a:ter the ,eath o: .ao in 1$"(. <hat measure has spare, the countr9 an estimate, 3$% million births but ma9 ultimatel9 pro;e to be another monumental ,emo1raphic mista-e. +ith ChinaLs breathta-in1 rise towar, a::luenceD most people li;e lon1er an, ha;e :ewer chil,renD mirrorin1 tren,s seen aroun, the worl,. <hose tren,s an, the e traor,inaril9 low birth rate ha;e combine, to create a star- imbalance between 9oun1 an, ol,. >hat threatens the nationGs ric3et; &ension s;stemH which alread; runs large de<icits e=en with the (#to#1 ratio o< wor3ers to retirees that it was designed <or. Demo1raphers also e pect strains on the househol, re1istration s9stemD which restricts internal mi1ration. <he s9stem pre;ents 9oun1 wor-ers :rom mi1ratin1 to urban areas to relie;e labor shorta1esD but o::icials :ear that abolishin1 it coul, release a :loo, o: humanit9 that woul, swamp the cities. As wor-ers become scarcer an, more e pensi;e in the increasin1l9 a::luent cities alon1 ChinaLs eastern seaboar,D the countr; will <ace growing economic &ressures to mo=e out o< assembl; wor3 and other labor#intensi=e manu<acturingH which will be ta3en u& b; &oorer economies in $sia and be;ondD an, into ser;ice an, in:ormation-base, in,ustries. K7or the last two ,eca,es China has enLo;ed the ad=antage o< ha=ing a high ratio o< wor3ing#age &eo&le in the &o&ulationH but that situation is about to changeDK sai, Muo 5ueEinD ;ice presi,ent o: the )han1hai Aca,em9 o: )ocial )ciences. K2ith the wor3ing#age &o&ulation decreasingH our labor costs will become less com&etiti=e D an, in,ustries in places li-e ?ietnam an, /an1la,esh will start becomin1 more attracti;e.K

Scholars
1'. Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Good# Democrac;

Economic decline causes multi&le sites o< state <ailure and democratic bac3sliding 9erguson . *iall D)enior 7ellow at the >oo;er 2nstitution at )tan:or, Uni;ersit9D %ar#ard Business Re#iewD ?ol.
#" 2ssue "3#D &ul93au1 $I E< 2ill this <inancial crisis ma3e the world more dangerous as well as &oorerS >he answer is almost certainl9 ;es. $&art <rom the usual trouble s&ots ## $<ghanistanH CongoH GazaH IraJH 6ebanonH 8a3istanH SomaliaH and Sudan ## e)&ect new outbrea3s o< instabilit; in countries we thought had made it to democrac;. 2n AsiaD >hailand ma; be the most =ulnerable. At the en, o: 2%%" it re;erte, to ,emocrac9 a:ter a spell o:
militar9 rule that was suppose, to crac- ,own on corruption. +ithin a 9earLs time the countr9 was in chaosD with protesters bloc-in1 /an1-o-Ls streets an, the state bannin1 the 6eopleLs 6ower 6art9. 2n April 2%%$ the capital ,escen,e, into anarch9 as ri;al 9ellowshirte, an, re,-shirte, political :actions battle, with the militar9. E)&ect similar scenes in other emerging mar3ets. >rouble has alread; begun in Georgia and 4oldo=a. >hen thereGs !3raineD where economic collapse threatens to tri11er political ,isinte1ration. +hile 6resi,ent ?i-tor Bushchen-o leans towar, EuropeD his all9-turne,-ri;al 6rime .inister Bulia <9moshen-o :a;ors a 0ussian orientation. <heir ,i::erences re:lect a wi,enin1 1ap between the countr9Ls pre,ominantl9 U-rainian west an, pre,ominantl9 0ussian east. .eanwhileD in .oscowD 6utin tal-s menacin1l9 o: Kri,,in1 the U-rainian people o: all sorts o: swin,lers an, bribe-ta-ers.K <he Crimean peninsulaD with its ethnic 0ussian maEorit9D is the part o: the K*ear Abroa,K Cthe :ormer )o;iet UnionI that 6utin most co;ets. /anuar;Gs wrangle o=er gas su&&lies to 2estern Euro&e ma; ha=e been the <irst &hase o< a 5ussian bid to destabilizeH i: not to brea- upD !3raine. >he worldGs increasing instabilit; ma3es the !nited States seem more attracti=e not onl; as a sa<e ha=en but also as a global policeman. 4an;
&eo&le s&ent the ;ears <rom 2001 to 200- com&laining about !.S. inter=entions o=erseas. But i< the <inancial crisis turns u& the heat in old hot s&ots and creates new ones at either end o< EurasiaH the world ma; s&end the ne)t eight ;ears wishing <or moreH not :ewerD U.). inter=entions.
Economic decline colla&ses democrac; # em&iricall; &ro=en 9riedman G*C/enEaminD 6ro: o: 6olitical Econ P >ar;ar,D The AtlanticD
http:33www.theatlantic.com3ma1aJine3archi;e32%%!3%"3melt,own-a-case-stu,934%4$3 Au1 !D I E< *ot Eust in America but in the other +estern ,emocraciesD tooD histor; is re&lete with instances in which a turn awa; <rom o&enness and toleranceH o<ten accom&anied b; a wea3ening o< democratic institutionsH has <ollowed economic stagnation. >he most <amiliar e)am&le is the rise o< 1azism in German; D :ollowin1 that
countr9Ls economic chaos in the 1$2%s an, then the onset o: worl,wi,e ,epression in the earl9 1$3%s. /ut in /ritain such nast9 episo,es as the repression o: the su::ra1ette mo;ement un,er AsNuithD the brea-in1 o: 4lo9, Geor1eLs promises to the returnin1 +orl, +ar 2 ;eteransD an, the bloo,9 7ascist riots in 4on,onLs East En, all occurre, un,er se;ere economic ,istress. )o ,i, the ascension o: the e tremist /oulan1ist mo;ement in late-nineteenth-centur9 7ranceD an, the Action 7rancaise mo;ement a:ter +orl, +ar 2. Con;ersel9D in both America an, Europe :airness an, tolerance ha;e increase,D an, ,emocratic institutions ha;e stren1thene,D mostl9 when the a;era1e citiJenLs stan,ar, o: li;in1 has been risin1. <he reason is not har, to un,erstan,. 2hen their li=ing standards are
risingH &eo&le do not =iew themsel=esH their <ellow citizensH and their societ; as a whole the wa; the; do when those standards are stagnant or <alling. >he; are more trustingH more inclusi=eH and more o&en to change when the; =iew their <uture &ros&ects and their childrenGs with con<idence rather than an)iet; or <ear. Economic growth is not merel; the enabler o< higher consum&tionR it is in man; wa;s the wells&ring <rom which democrac; and ci=il societ; <low . +e shoul, be :ull9 co1niJant o: the ris-s to our ;alues
an, liberties i: that nourishin1 source runs ,r9.

Scholars
1(0 Econ Growth Good/Bad

Direct correlation between economic growth and social/&olitical &rogress 9riedman + C/enEaminD +illiam &oseph .aier 6ro:essor o: 6olitical Econom9 at >ar;ar, Uni;ersit9D <>E
.=0A4 C=*)EQUE*CE) =7 EC=*=.2C G0=+<>D http:33www.economics.har;ar,.e,u3:acult93:rie,man3:iles3<heR2%.oralR2%ConseNuencesR2%o:R2%Economic R2%Growth.p,:D 7ebruar9 (D AD: "3(3%$I >he lin3 between economic growth and social and &olitical &rogress in the de=elo&ing world has ;et other &ractical im&lications as well. 7or e ampleD the continuin1 absence o: political ,emocrac9 an, basic personal :ree,oms in China has
,eepl9 trouble, man9 obser;ers in the +est. Until China 1aine, a,mission to the +orl, <ra,e =r1aniJation in 2%%2D these concerns re1ularl9 1a;e rise in the Unite, )tates to ,ebate on whether to tra,e with China on a Tmost :a;ore, nationQ basis. <hese concerns still cause Nuestions about whether to 1i;e Chinese :irms a,;ance, American technolo19D or allow them to bu9 an American oil compan9. /oth si,es in this ,ebate share the same obEecti;e: to :oster China's political liberaliJation. >ow to ,o soD howe;erD remains the :ocus o: intense ,isa1reement. /ut i< a
rising standard o< li=ing leads a societ;0s &olitical and social institutions to gra=itate toward o&enness and democrac;Vas the e=idence mostl; showsV then as long as China continues its recent economic e)&ansionH Chinese citizens will e=entuall; enLo; greater &olitical democrac; together with the &ersonal <reedoms that democrac; brings. )ince 1$"#D when Den1 5ao-6in1's economic re:orms be1anD the Chinese ha;e seen a :i;e:ol, increase in their material stan,ar, o: li;in1. >he im&ro=ement in nutritionH housingH sanitationH and trans&ortation has been dramaticH while the <reedom o< Chinese citizens to ma3e economic choices Swhere to wor-D what to bu9D whether to start a businessS is alread; <ar broader than it was. 2ith continued economic ad=ance Cthe a;era1e Chinese stan,ar, o: li;in1 is still onl9 oneei1hth that in the Unite, )tatesID greater <reedom to ma3e &olitical choicesH tooH will &robabl; <ollow. 2n,ee,D an
important implication o: the i,ea that it is in si1ni:icant part the 1rowth rather than Eust the le;el o: people's li;in1 stan,ar,s that matters :or this purpose is that the countries in the ,e;elopin1 worl, whose economies are actuall9 ,e;elopin1D li-e ChinaD will not ha;e to wait until the9 achie;e +estern-le;el incomes be:ore the9 e perience si1ni:icant political an, social liberaliJation.

Scholars

Economic growth 3e; to democrac; 9riedman + C/enEaminD +illiam &oseph .aier 6ro:essor o: 6olitical Econom9 at >ar;ar, Uni;ersit9D <>E .=0A4
C=*)EQUE*CE) =7 EC=*=.2C G0=+<>D http:33www.economics.har;ar,.e,u3:acult93:rie,man3:iles3<heR2%.oral R2%ConseNuencesR2%o:R2%EconomicR2%Growth.p,:D 7ebruar9 (D AD: "3(3%$I
@ow the citizens o< an; countr; thin3 about economic growthH and what actions the; ta3e in conseJuenceH are there<ore a matter o< <ar broader im&ortance than we con=entionall; assume. 2n man9 countries to,a9D e=en the most basic Jualities o< an; societ; S ,emocrac9 or ,ictatorshipD tolerance or ethnic hatre, an, ;iolenceD wi,esprea, opportunit9 or economic oli1arch9S remain in <lu). In some countries where there is now a democrac;H it is still new and there<ore <ragile. /ecause o: the lin- between risin1 or :allin1 li;in1 stan,ar,s an, Eust these aspects o: social an, political ,e;elopmentD the absence o< growth in so man; o< what we usuall; call Mde=elo&ing economiesHO e;en thou1h man9 o: them are not actuall9 ,e;elopin1D threatens their &ros&ects in wa;s that standard measures o< national income do not e=en suggest. >he same concern a&&liesH albeit in a more subtle wa;H to mature democracies as well. E=en in the !nited StatesH 2 belie;eD the Jualit; o< our democrac;Vmore <undamentall;H the moral character o< $merican societ;Vis similarl; at ris3. <he
central economic Nuestion :or the U.). at the outset o: the twent9:irst centur9 is whether the nation in the 1eneration ahea, will a1ain achie;e increasin1 prosperit9D as in the ,eca,es imme,iatel9 :ollowin1 +orl, +ar 22D or lapse into the sta1nation o: li;in1 stan,ar,s :or the maEorit9 o: our citiJens that persiste, :rom the earl9 1$"%s until the earl9 1$$%s. An, the more im&ortant Juestion that
then <ollows concerns how these di<<erent economic &aths would a<<ect our democratic &olitical institutions and the broader character o< our societ;. As the economic historian Ale an,er Gerschen-ron once obser;e,D Me=en a long democratic histor; does not necessaril; immunize a countr; <rom becoming a Xdemocrac; without democrats.0O =ur own e perienceD as well as that o: other countriesD ,emonstrates that merel9 bein1 rich
is no bar to a societ9's retreat into ri1i,it9 an, intolerance once enou1h o: its citiJens lose the sense that the9 are 1ettin1 ahea,. <he :amiliar balancin1 o: material positi;es a1ainst moral ne1ati;es when we ,iscuss economic 1rowth is there:ore a :alse choiceD an, the parallel assumption that how we ;alue material ;ersus moral concerns neatl9 maps into whether we shoul, ea1erl9 embrace economic 1rowth or temper our enthusiasm :or it is wron1 as well. Economic growth bears moral bene<its as wellH and when we
debate the o<ten hard decisions that ine=itabl; ariseVin choosing economic &olicies that either encourage growth or retard itH and e=en in our reactions to growth that ta3es &lace a&art <rom the &ush or &ull o< &ublic &olic;Vit is im&ortant that we ta3e these moral &ositi=es into account.

Scholars
Im&acts# Econ Good# 9amine

Economic growth is the onl; solution to <amine . 4ahder - CEthiopian De;elopment +ebsiteD TA,,ressin1 the root cause o: :amine an, po;ert9 in EthiopiaDQ
)eptember 2"D 2%%#D http:33mah,er.com3p,:3A,,ressin1HtheHrootHcauseHo:H:amineHan,Hpo;ert9HinHEthiopia..p,:D AD: "-(-$I 2t is well establishe, that there is a strong correlation between <amine and economic de=elo&ment or 1rowth. Economic growth leads to de=elo&ment and reduction in po;ert9 an, :amine. 5eal economic growth embracing and bene<iting all the citizens o< a countr; &roduces sa<et; mechanisms which are o< =ital im&ortance in alle=iating or a=oiding dis&lacements and li=e destruction emanating <rom <amine . <he su::erin1 an, si1ni:icant loss o: li;es resultin1 :rom persistent :amines which are hittin1 Ethiopia coul, not be a;oi,e, or e;en miti1ate, owin1 to the shrin-in1 econom9 or increasin1 po;ert9 in the countr9. =n the other han,D one can can not a;oi, but :ace the iron9 o: Ethiopia :ailin1 to be sel: su::icient an, :ee, its population ,espite possessin1 all the potential to ,o so. <hus a critical e amination o: the maEor stumblin1 bloc- or :actor actin1 as a bottlenec- an, pre;entin1 the countr9 :rom era,icatin1 or e;en copin1 with :amine is necessar9.
Economic de=elo&ment em&iricall; a=erts <amine. 1orberg ' C&ohanD )enior 7ellow at the Cato 2nstituteD 2n De:ense o: Global CapitalismD p. 33-34D AD: "-(-$I
)uch is the triumph o: the T1reen re;olution.Q @igher#;ieldH more#resistant cro&s ha=e been de=elo&edH at the same time as sowingH irrigationH manuringH and har=esting methods ha=e im&ro=ed dramaticall; . *ewD e::icient strains o: wheat account :or more than "! percent o: wheat pro,uction in the ,e;elopin1 countriesD an, :armers there are estimate, to ha;e earne, nearl9 O! billion as a result o: the chan1e. 2n southern 2n,iaD the 1reen re;olution is estimate, to ha;e booste, :armersL real earnin1s b9 $% percent an, those o: lan,less peasants b9 12! percent o;er 2% 9ears. 2ts impact has been least in A:ricaD but e;en there the green re=olution has raised maize &roduction &er acre b; between 10 and (0 &ercent. 2ithout this re=olutionH it is estimated that world &rices o< wheat and rice would be nearl; (0 &ercent higher than the; are toda; an, that rou1hl9 another 2 percent o: the worl,Ls chil,renSchil,ren who are now 1ettin1 enou1h to eatSwoul, ha;e su::ere, :rom chronic malnourishment. <o,a9Ls :oo, problem has nothin1 to ,o with o;erpopulation. @unger toda; is a &roblem o< access to the a=ailable 3nowledge and technolog;H to wealthD an, to the secure bac-1roun, con,itions that ma-e :oo, pro,uction possible. .an9 researchers belie;e that i: mo,ern :armin1
techniNues were applie, in all the worl,Ls a1ricultureD we woul, alrea,9 be ableD here an, nowD to :ee, another billion or so people. 1% <he inci,ence o: maEor :amine ,isasters has also ,ecline, ,ramaticall9D lar1el9 as a result o: the sprea, o: ,emocrac9. )tar;ation has occurre, in states o: practicall9 e;er9 -in,Scommunist re1imesD colonial empiresD technocratic ,ictatorshipsD an, ancient tribal societies. 2n all cases the9 ha;e been centraliJe,D authoritarian states that suppresse, :ree ,ebate an, the wor-in1s o: the mar-et. As Amart9a )en obser;esD there has ne;er been a :amine ,isaster in a ,emocrac9. E;en poor ,emocracies li-e 2n,ia an, /otswana ha;e a;oi,e, star;ationD ,espite ha;in1 a poorer :oo, suppl9 than man9 countries where :amine has struc-. /9 contrastD communist states li-e ChinaD the )o;iet UnionD Cambo,iaD EthiopiaD an, *orth 8oreaD as well as colonies li-e 2n,ia un,er the /ritish 0aED ha;e e perience, star;ation. <his shows that :amine is cause, b9 ,ictatorshipD not b9 :oo, shorta1e. 9amine is induced b; leaders destro;ing &roduction and tradeD ma-in1 warD an, i1norin1 the pli1ht o: the star;in1 population. )en maintains that ,emocracies are spare, star;ation :or the simple reason that it is easil9 pre;ente, i: the rulers o: a societ9 wish to pre;ent it. 0ulers can re:rain :rom impe,in1 the ,istribution o: :oo,D an, the9 can create Eobs :or people who woul, not be able to a::or, :oo, purchases in times o: crisis. /ut ,ictators are un,er no pressure: the9 can eat their :ill howe;er ba,l9 o:: their people areD whereas ,emocratic lea,ers will be unseate, i: the9 :ail to a,,ress :oo, ,istribution problems. A,,itionall9D a :ree press ma-es the 1eneral public aware o: the problemsD so that the9 can be tac-le, in time. 2n a ,ictatorshipD e;en the lea,ers ma9 be ,ecei;e, b9 censorship. .uch e;i,ence su11ests that ChinaLs lea,ers were reassure, b9 their own propa1an,a an, their subor,inatesL laun,ere, statistics while 3% million people ,ie, o: star;ation ,urin1 Tthe Great 4eap 7orwar,Q between 1$!# an, 1$(1.
Im&acts# Econ Good# @ealth

Economic 8roducti=it; sol=es 8o=ert;H DiseaseH and 2ar Baile; , C0onal,D 0onal, /aile9 is the awar,-winnin1 science correspon,ent :or 0eason ma1aJine an,
0eason.comD where he writes a wee-l9 science an, technolo19 column D Au1ust 1D T6eace an, 6rosperit9 <hrou1h

Scholars
1(' Econ Growth Good/Bad
6ro,ucti;it9 Can economic 1rowth sol;e all the problems in the worl,FQD http:33www.reason.com3news3show3121($".htmlI E< 8roducti=it; can sa=e the &lanet and &roduce &eace and &ros&erit; <or all. 8roducti=it; is the tool that can eliminate all o< the scourges o< humanit;S&o=ert;H hun1erD disease and war. *orwe1ian-American economist
an, business consultant <or Dahl passionatel9 ma,e this ar1ument in his -e9note presentation at the +orl, 7uture )ociet9Ls annual meetin1. Dahl is the chairman emeritus o: the +orl, Con:e,eration o: 6ro,ucti;it9 )cience. =ne must be on 1uar, a1ainst the e a11erate, claims o: the ma;ens o: an9 ,iscipline :or the si1ni:icance o: their :iel,. =: courseD ma;ens belie;e that what the9 ,o is ;itall9 importantD otherwise wh9 woul, the9 ,o itF <hat sai,D Dahl was ;er9 persuasi;e.
Economic decline turns disease# 3ills health 5obinson . CAn,rewD :ellow o: +ol:son Colle1eD Cambri,1eD 1mer in %ealth Threats JournalD (.12.$D
tp:33www.ph9sor1.com3news1(3$$3!(".htmlI E< >here are concerns that the <inancial crisis has alread; hit tuberculosis controlH which has global rami<icationsH sa9s 0obertson.T<here are alrea,9 in,ications that <unding <or >B diagnosis and management is decreasing in de=elo&ing countries and a surge o< new cases there ma; <low onto the !S and other countriesHO he sa9s.@ealthcare in de=elo&ed countries will also su<<er i< budgets are cut and incomes <all. 7ewer people are accessin1 pri;ate health ser;ices in the U)AD which will increase the bur,en on public health ser;ices .5esources <or disease sur=eillance are o<ten cut bac3 during di<<icult economic timesH Leo&ardising the s;stems we rel; on to identi<; and deal with emerging diseases # including the current swine <lu e&idemics.>he 1..* economic crisis in 4e)ico led to 2,H000 e)cess deaths in that countr; alone # but the e<<ect o< this <ar greaterH global downturn is currentl; Mim&ossible to Juanti<;HO according to 5obertson.
Economic decline leads to disease s&read $le)anderH . C/rianD .)*/C sta:: writerD msnbcD www.msnbc.msn.com3i,32$!$$"#(I E<
<o most AmericansD ,iseases with names li-e dengue <e=erD chi-un1un9aD malariaD Cha1as an, leishmaniasis mi1ht soun, li-e somethin1 out o: a ?ictorian e plorer's tales o: hac-in1 throu1h A:rican Eun1les. Bet on1oin1 epi,emics o: these ,iseases are 3illing millions o< &eo&le aroun, the worl,. *owD disease e)&erts are increasingl; concerned these and other in<ections ma; become as <amiliar in the !nited States as +est *ile or 49me ,isease. 7ew belie;e Americans :ace a -iller epi,emic :rom tropical ,iseases. /ut scientists who specialiJe in emer1in1 in:ectious ,iseases sa; such illnesses ma; become more common here as the economic downturn batters an alread; wea3ened &ublic health s;stemH creating en=ironmental conditions conduci=e to in<ectious diseases s&read b9 insects or other animals. At the same timeD such =ector#borne diseases are ca&able o< s&reading around the world much more ra&idl; due to massi=e south#to#north immigrationH rapi, transportationD an, 1lobal tra,e.

Scholars
1(( Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Good# @ealth

Deteriorating economies hurt women0s maternit; and $IDS &re=ention International 8eo&le0s @ealth Council .(W<hir, +orl, *etwor-D http:33www.twnsi,e.or1.s13title3sapch.htmX 2n a,,ition to the ne1ati;e impact on womenLs health associate, with the 1eneral ,ecline in communicable ,isease control an, health care pro;isionD there is e;i,ence that morbi,it9 an, mortalit9 associate, with pre1nanc9 has also been a11ra;ate,. 2n a number o: countries the introduction o< user charges <or antenatal and maternit; care has been associated with an increase in deli=eries conducted at homeH as well as those occurring in hos&ital without &re=ious antenatal care or assessment. >he rising costs o< trans&ort together with lac3 o< mone; on the part o: poor women ha=e been other contributor; <actors. 7inall9D there is e;i,enceD mainl9 o: a Nualitati;e natureD that ris3 beha=iour in relation to @IA transmission has been in<luenced b; deteriorating economic circumstances which ha=e <orced an increasing number o< women into commercial se) acti=it;.
Economic slum& leads to disease s&read and &re=ents treatment International 8eo&le0s @ealth Council .(W<hir, +orl, *etwor-D http:33www.twnsi,e.or1.s13title3sapch.htmX <he li-el9 causes o< these re=ersals deri=e <rom declines in incomesR increases in <ood &ricesR and reductions in health sector s&endingH which ha=e led to the im&osition o< user charges <or health careH cutbac3s in &re=enti=e &rogrammesG budgets and interru&tions in su&&l; o< &harmaceuticals to &ublic health care <acilities. <hese ha;e in turn resulte, in inter alia: deterioration in both the Juantit; and Jualit; o< dietsH and reductions in immunisation co=erage and in utilisation o< health ser=ices <or acute conditionsH as well as wea3ening o< disease control &rogrammes. ConseNuentl9D the incidence Can, possibl9 the se;erit9I o< the =accine#&re=entable diseases has &robabl; increased together with mortalit; <rom diarrheal diseaseH res&irator; in<ections and malaria. >here has also been a resurgence o< certain communicable diseases which were &re=iousl; substantiall; under controlH &articularl; malariaH tuberculosis and cholera. $ll o< these ha=e contributed to increased morbidit; and mortalit;H especiall9 amon1st chil,ren an, women.

Scholars
1(* Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Good# 8o=ert;

Economic 8roducti=it; sol=es 8o=ert;H DiseaseH and 2ar Baile; , C0onal,D 0onal, /aile9 is the awar,-winnin1 science correspon,ent :or 0eason ma1aJine an,
0eason.comD where he writes a wee-l9 science an, technolo19 column D Au1ust 1D T6eace an, 6rosperit9 <hrou1h 6ro,ucti;it9 Can economic 1rowth sol;e all the problems in the worl,FQD http:33www.reason.com3news3show3121($".htmlI E< 8roducti=it; can sa=e the &lanet and &roduce &eace and &ros&erit; <or all. 8roducti=it; is the tool that can eliminate all o< the scourges o< humanit;S&o=ert;H hun1erD disease and war. *orwe1ian-American economist
an, business consultant <or Dahl passionatel9 ma,e this ar1ument in his -e9note presentation at the +orl, 7uture )ociet9Ls annual meetin1. Dahl is the chairman emeritus o: the +orl, Con:e,eration o: 6ro,ucti;it9 )cience. =ne must be on 1uar, a1ainst the e a11erate, claims o: the ma;ens o: an9 ,iscipline :or the si1ni:icance o: their :iel,. =: courseD ma;ens belie;e that what the9 ,o is ;itall9 importantD otherwise wh9 woul, the9 ,o itF <hat sai,D Dahl was ;er9 persuasi;e.
Economic growth reduces &o=ert; and sa=es the en=ironment <rom destruction C &re<er en=ironmental thin3 tan3 2orld Institute .. C!orld resources instituteD winter $#-$$D in,epen,ent en;ironmental thin- tan- non pro:itD
http:33www.wri.or13publication3content3#3"2 I E< Economic growth is an im&ortant <actor in reducing &o=ert; and generating the resources necessar9 <or human ,e;elopment an, en=ironmental &rotection. >here is a strong correlation between gross domestic &roduct PGD8F &er ca&ita and indicators o< de=elo&ment such as li<e e)&ectanc;H in<ant mortalit;H adult literac;H &olitical and ci=il rightsH and some in,icators o: en=ironmental Jualit;. >owe;erD economic 1rowth alone ,oes not 1uarantee human ,e;elopment. +ell-:unctionin1 ci;il institutionsD secure in,i;i,ual an, propert9 ri1htsD an, broa,-base, health an, e,ucational ser;ices are also ;ital to raisin1 o;erall li;in1 stan,ar,s. Despite its shortcomin1sD thou1hD GD8 remains a use<ul &ro); measure o< human well#being. <he worl, econom9 has 1rown appro imatel9 :i;e:ol, since 1$!%D an unprece,ente, rate o: increase. <he in,ustrialiJe, economies still ,ominate economic acti;it9D accountin1 :or U)O22.! trillion o: the U)O2"." trillion 1lobal GD6 in 1$$3 W1X. Bet a remar-able tren, o;er the past 2! 9ears has been the bur1eonin1 role pla9e, b9 ,e;elopin1 countriesD in particular the populous economies o: east an, south Asia. C)ee 0api, Growth in 4ow 2ncome Economies.I

Scholars
1(+ Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Good# 8o=ert;

Growth <rom social ser=ices sol=e &o=ert; 4adan 2 CAnishaD 7inancial anal9st :or GE an, ./A at 8ello11 )choolD *orthwestern Uni;ersit9D <he
0elationship between Economic 7ree,om an, )ocio A Economic De;elopmentD http:33www.econ.ilstu.e,u3uauEe36D7Ls3Carrol0oun,3ma,anpost.p,:D UAU&ED p1 !-(D 2%%2D AD: "3(3%$I .erel9 stu,9in1 the relationship between economic :ree,om an, economic 1rowth ratesD howe;erD is not enou1h. 2hether the bene:its o: :ree,om an, Iincreased economic growth ratesK translate into somethin1 real an, ma3e a signi<icant contribution to socio#economic wel<are o< &eo&le is a matter o< critical concern. >oda;H one in <i=e o< the world0s &eo&le - 1.2 billion - li=e on less than a dollar a da;. It has been the e)&erience o< most o: the countries that ha=e seen &ositi=e growth rates that the number o< &eo&le li=ing in &o=ert; has increased. <he Unite, *ations De;elopment 6ro1ram CU*D6I has ,e;elope, the >uman De;elopment 2n,e C>D2ID which ran-s
countries base, on the le;el o: human ,e;elopment the9 ha;e attaine,. C<he >D2 is e plaine, in ,epth in )ection 2?.A.2 o: this paperI. <he lin- between economic 1rowth an, human ,e;elopment is neither automatic nor ob;ious. 7or e ampleD in 1$$#-$$D .ol,o;a ha, the hi1hest economic 1rowth rate o: 1(.!R but its >D2 score in 1$$$ was onl9 %.($D which means that it ha, more than 3%R short:all in human ,e;elopment. Another e ample is <ur-menistanD which ha, the secon, hi1hest 1rowth rate o: 14.$RD but its >D2 score was onl9 %.(#. As a counter e ampleD Cana,a ha, the hi1hest >D2 ratin1 o: %.$32 buts its 1rowth rate in 1$$#-$$ was onl9 3.#R. .oreo;erD
<i<t;#si) &ercent o< the de=elo&ing world lac3s the most basic sanitationH and more than *0 countries ha=e lower real &er ca&ita incomes toda; than the; did a decade ago. 2here &o=ert; is e)treme and unendingH human rights are eroded and the le=el o< human ca&ital deteriorates. <here:oreD i< &rogress does not bene<it the citizens o< the countr;H then it is not &rogress in concrete terms. <husD it is important to
loo- be9on, economic 1rowth an, :ocus on the status o: the people. <he criteria :or Eu,1in1 whether people are better o:: can be clearl9 ,elineate,. <his research stud; assumes that &eo&le will be better o<< i< there is greater eJualit; o< incomeH i<
&er ca&ita income increasesH and i< the; ha=e better access to education and health care through which the; can lead a more <ul<illing li<e. <he +orl, >ealth =r1aniJation ,e:ines health as a state o: complete ph9sicalD mentalD an,
social well bein1 an, not merel9 the absence o: ,isease an, in:irmit9. E,ucation is a basic nee, because it impro;es s-illsD impro;es pro,ucti;it9D an, lowers repro,ucti;it9 b9 impro;in1 the status o: women. E,ucation also contributes to meetin1 other basic nee,s. I<
the beha=ioral changes <rom education can be built into other wel<are &rograms dealing with healthH nutritionH and sanitationH sa=ings b; a <actor o< ten to twent; on the cost o< im&lementing these other &rograms can be attained C)treetenD 1$#1I. ?nl; when &eo&le0s basic needs o< healthH educationH and a reasonable standard o< li=ing are metH can the; deri=e bene<its <rom the countr;0s increased growth rates. 2hen there is greater eJualit; o< incomeH then the &oor are eJuall; able to bene<it. <here:oreD :or the
purpose o: this paperD socio-economic ,e;elopment can be sai, to consist o: access to resourcesD healthD e,ucationD an, 1reater income eNualit9. <he le;el o: socio-economic ,e;elopment in,icates the Nualit9 o: li:e.
Economic growth is the solution to global &o=ert;. Ben#$mi + CDanielD &ournalist with a )pecialt9 in EconomicsD E,itor o: 7un, )trate19D T+ho's a:rai, o:
economic 1rowthFQ .a9 4D 2%%(D http:33www.spi-e,-online.com3Articles3%%%%%%%C/%4D.htmD AD: "-(-$I 6erhaps the best startin1 point is to remin, oursel;es that economic growth and a<<luence ha=e had enormous social bene<its. <hese are all too easil9 :or1otten in a societ9 with little sense o: histor9. ?ur li=es are substantiall; better than those o< an; &re=ious generations. Anne 8rue1erD :irst ,eput9 mana1in1 ,irector o: the 2nternational .onetar9 7un, C2.7ID
loo-e, at some o: the -e9 1lobal in,icators o;er the pre;ious hal: centur9 in a speech in 2%%2. )he is worth Nuotin1 at len1th L2n:ant mortalit9 has ,ecline, :rom 1#% per 1%%% births in 1$!% to (% per 1%%% births. 4iterac9 rates ha;e risen :rom an a;era1e o: 4% per cent in the 1$!%s to o;er "% per cent to,a9. 2orld &o=ert; has declinedD ,espite still-hi1h population 1rowth in the ,e;elopin1 worl,. )ince 1$#%D the number o< &oor &eo&leD ,e:ine, as those li;in1 on less than a ,ollar a ,a9D has <allen b; about 200 millionH much o< it due to the ra&id growth o< China and India. L2: there is one measure that can summarise the impact o: these enormous 1ainsD it is li:e e pectanc9. =nl9 !% 9ears a1oD li:e in much o: the ,e;elopin1 worl, was prett9 much what it use, in be in the rich nations a couple o: centuries a1o: Knast9D brutish an, short.K /ut to,a9D li<e e)&ectanc; in the de=elo&ing world a=erages +* ;earsH u& <rom under (0 ;ears in 1.*0. 4i:e e pectanc9 was increasin1 e;en in sub-)aharan A:rica until the e::ects o: 9ears o: re1ional con:licts an, the A2D) epi,emic brou1ht about a re;ersal. <he 1ap between li:e e pectanc9 between the ,e;elope, an, ,e;elopin1 worl, has narrowe,D :rom a 1ap o: 3% 9ears in 1$!% to onl9 about 1% 9ears to,a9.L C22I

Scholars
1(, Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Good# $2% 1o Growth Sol=es 8o=ert;

Qero growth is immoral C it dooms <uture generations to &o=ert; and no access to resources 9lorea - CA,rianD <he 4imits o: Mero Economic Growth )trate19D Uni;ersit9 o: =ra,eaD 7acult9 o: EconomicsD
http:33imtuora,ea.ro3auo.:mte3.2EH:iles374=0EAR2%AD02A*R2%1.p,:I <he9 notice, that in s&ite o< the <act that the stud; wants to be a global oneH it is built on &remises and =alues belonging to the rich. /ut in spite o: the :act that the bases o: the stu,9 is about ,e;elopment worl,D the solutions claim to be ;ali, e;er9whereD irrespecti;e o: the mosaic-li-eD political an, economical lan,scape o: worl,. 2t is well--nown that e=er; countr; and region has their own &roblems. An, the &roblem o< a maLoritar; &art o< this world was and still is underde=elo&ment. >o &ro&ose to this world a zero economic growth is <irst o< all an immoral act. .oreo;erD such a solution is totall; o&&osed to the conce&tion o< lasting de=elo&ment. I< zero growth were acce&tedH the ne)t generations <rom the underde=elo&ed countries would be &racticall; condemned to li=e not better but in continuous &o=ert; . E,1ar 7aure's wor,s are memorable in this respect: dthe h;&ocris; o< the rich countries will be immeasurable i< on behal< o< &ollution and &rotection o< raw materialH the; reJuire the limiting o< the economic growth.

Scholars
1(Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Good# De De=

Economic growth critical to resistance and &ositi=e moral economic re=olution 9riedman + C/enEaminD pro: o: political econ P >ar;ar, UD
http:33www.economics.har;ar,.e,u3:acult93:rie,man3:iles3<heR2%.oralR2%ConseNuencesR2%o:R2%Economic R2%Growth.p,:D 7ebruar9 (D AD: "3(3%$I E<
Greater a<<luence meansH amon1 man9 other thin1sD better :oo,D bi11er housesD more tra;elD an, impro;e, me,ical care. 2t means that more people
can a::or, a better e,ucation. 2t ma9 also meanD as it ,i, in most +estern countries ,urin1 the twentieth centur9D a shorter wor--wee- that allows more time :or :amil9 an, :rien,s. .oreo;erD these material bene<its o< rising incomes accrue not onl; to indi=iduals and their <amilies but to communities and e=en to entire countries. Greater a::luence can also mean better schoolsD more par-s an, museumsD an, lar1er concert halls an, sports arenasD not to mention more leisure to enEo9 these public :acilities. A risin1 a;era1e income allows a countr9 to proEect its national interest abroa,D or sen, a man to the moon. All these a,;anta1esD howe;erD lie chie:l9 in the material realmD an, we ha;e alwa9s been reluctant to a,;ance material concerns to the hi1hest plane in our ;alue s9stem. 6raise :or the ascetic li:eD an, a,miration :or those who practice sel:-,enial ha;e been continual themes in the reli1ions o: both +est an, East. )oD tooD ha;e warnin1s about the ,an1ers to man's spiritual wellbein1 that :ollow :rom ,e;otion to mone9 an, lu ur9D orD in some ;iewsD merel9 :rom wealth itsel:. E;en the aristocratic an, romantic tra,itionsD which rest on the clear presumption o: ha;in1 wealthD are nonetheless ,ismissi;e o: e::orts to pursue it. 7urthermoreD e=en when &eo&le &lainl; ac3nowledge that more is moreH less is lessH
and more is betterH economic growth rarel; means sim&l; more. >he d;namic &rocess that allows li=ing standards to rise brings other changes as well. 4ore is moreH but more is also di<<erent. >he Jualitati=e changes that accom&an; economic growthVincluding changes in wor3 arrangementsH in &ower structuresH in our relationshi& to the natural en=ironmentV ha=e nearl; alwa;s generated resistance. <he anti-1lobaliJation protests in the streets o: )eattleD
GenoaD an, +ashin1tonD D.C.D an, e;en on the outs-irts o: Da;osD re:lect a lon1-stan,in1 line o: thin-in1. the :orces that create Tthe wealth o: nationsDQ &ean- &acNues 0ousseau instea, a,mire, the Tnoble sa;a1eD ar1uin1 that man-in,'s 1ol,en a1e ha, occurre, not onl9 be:ore in,ustrialiJation but be:ore the a,;ent o: settle, a1riculture. )e;ent9-:i;e 9ears laterD as prominent ?ictorians were hailin1 the Ta1e o: impro;ementDQ 8arl .ar obser;e, the raw har,ships that a,;ancin1 in,ustrialiJation ha, impose, on wor-ers an, their :amiliesD an, ,e;ise, an economic theor9 o: how matters mi1ht Can, in his min,D woul,I become betterD to1ether with a political pro1ram :or brin1in1 that suppose,l9 better worl, into e istence. Althou1h Communism is now mostl9 a relic where it e ists at allD romantic socialismD combinin1 strains o: .ar an, 0ousseauD continues to attract a,herentsD as ,o :un,amentalist mo;ements that celebrate the presume, purit9 o: prein,ustrial societ9. <he Club o: 0ome's in:luential T4imits to GrowthQ report an, the T)mall is /eauti:ulQ counterculture o: the 1$"%sD the mounting concerns o=er the im&act on the en=ironment o< economic e)&ansionH especiall9 since the 1$#%sD an, most recentl; the antiglobalization mo=ement mounted in o&&osition to the 2orld >rade
?rganization and against <oreign in=estment more generall; are all echoes o< the same themeH which is thoroughl; <amiliar toda;. En;ironmental concerns in particular ha;e e pan,e, :rom their initial :ocus on the air an, water to encompass noise pollutionD urban
con1estionD an, such :un,amental issues as the ,epletion o: nonrenewable resources an, the e tinction o: species. 2n recent 9earsD the :orce o: competition in 1lobal mar-ets an, the turmoil o: an unsettle, worl, :inancial s9stem ha;e in:licte, ;isible har,ships on lar1e numbers o: people both in the ,e;elopin1 worl, an, in countries that are alrea,9 in,ustrialiJe,D Eust as the9 ha;e create, opportunities an, 1i;en a,;ancement to man9 others. As in the pastD the pli1ht o: those who are a::ecte, a,;ersel9S2n,onesians who :ace, hi1her :oo, prices when their currenc9 plun1e,D Ar1entinians who :oun, their sa;in1s bloc-e, when the countr9's ban-in1 s9stem collapse,D te tile wor-ers throu1hout the ,e;elopin1 worl, who cannot compete with low-cost :actor9 pro,uction in ChinaShas le, not onl9 to calls :or re:orm o: the un,erpinnin1s o: economic 1rowth but to outri1ht opposition. 2hat mar3s all these <orms o< resistance to the undesirable side e<<ects o< economic e)&ansion or o: the 1lobaliJation o< economic growth is thatD Eust as with earlier stran,s o: reli1ious thin-in1H in each case the; are accom&anied b; a distinctl; moral o=ertone. E=er
larger segments o< our societ; acce&t that it is not Lust economicall; <oolish but is morall; wrong <or one generation to use u& a dis&ro&ortionate share o< the world0s <orestsH or coalH or oil reser=esH or to de&lete the ozone or alter the earth0s climate b; <illing the atmos&here with greenhouse gases. +hile pleas on behal: o: biolo1ical ,i;ersit9
sometimes appeal to practical notions li-e the potential use o: 9et-to-be-,isco;ere, plants :or me,icinal purposesD we also increasin1l9 Nuestion our moral ri1ht to e tin1uish other species. =pposition to the 1lobal sprea, o: mar-ets is o:ten couche, as much in terms o: the moral emptiness o: consumerism as in the tan1ible har,ships sometimes impose, b9 worl, competition an, unstable :inancial s9stems. But i< a rising standard o< li=ing ma3es a
societ; more o&en and tolerant and democraticH and &erha&s also more &rudent on behal< o< generations to comeH then it is sim&l; not true that moral considerations argue wholl; against economic growth. Growth is =aluable not onl; <or our material im&ro=ement but <or how it a<<ects our social attitudes and our &olitical institutions S in other
wor,sD our societ9's moral characterD in the term :a;ore, b9 the Enli1htenment thin-ers :rom whom so man9 o: our ;iews on opennessD toleranceD an, ,emocrac9 ha;e sprun1. >he attitude o< &eo&le toward themsel=esH toward their <ellow citizensH and toward their societ; as a whole is di<<erent when their li=ing standard is rising <rom when it is stagnant or <alling. 2t is li-ewise ,i::erent when the9 ;iew their prospects an, their chil,ren's prospects with con:i,ence as oppose, to loo-in1 ahea, with an iet9 or e;en :ear. 2hen the attitudes
o< the broad maLorit; o< citizens are sha&ed b; a rising standard o< li=ingH o=er time that di<<erence usuall; leads to the &ositi=e de=elo&ment o<Sto use a1ain the lan1ua1e o: the Enli1htenmentS a societ;0s moral character. @ence Juestions about economic growth are not a matter o< material =ersus moral =alues. DesH economic growth o<ten does ha=e undesirable e<<ectsH such as the disru&tion o< traditional cultures and damage to the en=ironmentH and ;esH some o< these are a &ro&er moral concerns that we are right to ta3e into account. But economic growth bears social and &olitical conseJuences that are morall; bene<icial as well. Especiall9 :or purposes o: e;aluatin1 ,i::erent courses :or public polic9D it is im&ortant that we ta3e into account not onl; the <amiliar moral negati=es but these moral &ositi=es as well.

Scholars
1(. Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Good# 6aundr; 6ist

Economic decline causes global instabilit;H scenarios o< con<lict with chinaH and Euro&ean Instabilit; GreenH . C.ichael &.D )enior A,;isor an, &apan Chair at the Center :or )trate1ic an, 2nternational )tu,ies CC)2)I
an, Associate 6ro:essor at Geor1etown Uni;ersit93 Asia Times 0nlineD 3.2(.$D http:33www.atimes.com3atimes3AsianHEconom938C2(D-%1.html AD (33%3%$I E< 7acin1 the worst economic crisis since the Great DepressionD anal;sts at the 2orld Ban3 and the U) Central Intelli1ence $1enc9 are Lust beginning to contem&late the rami<ications <or international stabilit; i< there is not a reco=er; in the ne)t ;ear. 7or the most partD the :ocus has been on :ra1ile states such as some in Eastern Europe. >owe;erD the Great De&ression taught us that a downward global economic s&iral can e=en ha=e Larring im&acts on great &owers. It is no mere coincidence that the last great global economic downturn was <ollowed b; the most destructi=e war in human histor;. In the 1.'0sH economic des&eration hel&ed <uel autocratic regimes and &rotectionism in a ,ownwar, economic-securit9 ,eath spiral that en1ul:e, the worl, in con:lict. <his spiral was
ai,e, b9 the preoccupation o: the Unite, )tates an, other lea,in1 nations with economic troubles at home an, insu::icient attention to wor-in1 with other powers to maintain stabilit9 abroa,. <o,a9Ls challen1es are ,i::erentD 9et 1$33Ls 4on,on Economic Con:erenceD which :aile, to stop the ,ri:t towar, ,eeper ,epression an, worl, warD shoul, be a cautionar9 tale :or lea,ers hea,in1 to ne t monthLs 4on,on Group o: 2% CG-2%I meetin1. >here is no Juestion the !S must urgentl; act to a,,ress ban-in1 issues an, to restart its econom;. /ut the lessons o: the past su11est that we will also ha;e to -eep an e9e on those :ra1ile threa,s in the international s9stem that coul, be1in to unra;el i: the :inancial crisis is not re;erse, earl9 in the /arac- =bama a,ministration an, realiJe that economics an, securit9 are intertwine, in most o: the critical challen1es we :ace. A ,isillusione, risin1 powerF 9our areas in $sia merit &articular attentionD althou1h so :ar the current :inancial crisis has not chan1e, AsiaLs :un,amental strate1ic picture. China is not replacin1 the U) as re1ional he1emonD since the lea,ership in /eiEin1 is too ner;ous about the political implications o: the :inancial crisis at home to actuall9 pla9 a lea,in1 role in sol;in1 it internationall9. 6re,ictions that the U) will be brou1ht to its -nees because China is the lea,in1 hol,er o: U) ,ebt o:ten miss -e9 points. ChinaLs currenc9 controls an, :ull emplo9ment3e port-oriente, 1rowth strate19 1i;e /eiEin1 :ew choices other than bu9in1 U) <reasur9 bills or harmin1 its own econom9. 0ather than creatin1 new rules or institutions in international :inanceD or reorientin1 the Chinese econom9 to 1enerate 1reater lon1-term consumer ,eman, at homeD Chinese lea,ers are ,esperatel9 clin1in1 to the status Nuo Cthou1h /eiEin1 ,eser;es cre,it :or short-term e::orts to stimulate economic 1rowthI. >he greater danger with China is not an ecli&sing o< !S leadershi&H but
instead the 3ind o< shi<t in strategic orientation that ha&&ened to /a&an a<ter the Great De&ression.
&apan was ar1uabl9 not a re;isionist power be:ore 1$32 an, sou1ht instea, to con;er1e with the 1lobal econom9 throu1h open tra,e an, a,option o: the 1ol, stan,ar,. >he worldwide de&ression and &rotectionism o< the 1.'0s de=astated the newl; e)&osed /a&anese econom; and contributed directl; to militaristic and autar3ic &olicies in Asia as the &apanese people reacte, a1ainst what counte, :or 1lobaliJation at the time. China toda; is similarl; con=erging with the global econom;D an, man9 e perts belie;e China nee,s at least #R annual 1rowth to sustain social stabilit9. 0ealistic 1rowth pre,ictions :or 2%%$ are closer to !R. ?eteran China han,s were watchin1 closel9 when millions o: mi1rant wor-ers returne, to wora:ter the 4unar *ew Bear holi,a9 last month to :in, :actories close, an, Eobs 1one. <here were poc-ets o: protestsD but nationwi,e unrest seems unli-el9 this 9earD an, Chinese lea,ers are wor-in1 aroun, the cloc- to ensure that it ,oes not happen ne t 9ear either. >owe;erD the economic slow,own has onl9 Eust be1un an, nobo,9 is certain how it will impact the social contract in China between the rulin1 communist part9 an, the 1.3 billion Chinese who ha;e come to see 6resi,ent >u &intaoLs call :or Kharmonious societ9K as ine tricabl9 lin-e, to his promise o: Kpeace:ul ,e;elopmentK. 2: the &apanese e ample is an9 prece,entD a sustaine, economic slow,own has the potential to open a ,an1erous path :rom economic nationalism to strate1ic re;isionism in China too. Dan1erous states It is
noteworth; that 1orth :oreaH 4;anmar and Iran ha=e all intensi<ied their de<iance in the wa3e o< the <inancial crisisD which has ,istracte, the worl,Ls lea,in1 nationsD limite, their moral authorit9 an, sown potential ,iscor,. +ith
/eiEin1 worrie, about the potential impact o: *orth 8orean belli1erence or instabilit9 on Chinese internal stabilit9D an, lea,ers in &apan an, )outh 8orea un,er sie1e in parliament because o: the collapse o: their stoc- mar-etsD leaders in the 1orth :orea n capital o: 69on19an1 ha=e grown increasingl; boisterous about their countr;Gs claims to great &ower status as a
nuclear wea&ons state. >he Lunta in 4;anmar has chosen this moment to arrest hundreds o< &olitical dissidents and thumb its nose at <ellow members o< the 1%-countr9 $ssociation o: Southeast $sian 1ations. Iran continues its nuclear &rogram while e)&loiting di<<erences between the !SH !: and 9rance Cor the 6-3
1roupI
[ContinuedW\

Scholars
1*0 Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Good# 6aundr; 6ist

[ContinuedW\
an, China an, 0ussia - ,i::erences that coul, become more pronounce, i: economic :riction with /eiEin1 or 0ussia crow,s out cooperation or i: +estern European 1o;ernments 1row ner;ous about sanctions as a tool o: polic9. It is &ossible that the economic downturn will ma3e these dangerous states more &liable because o: :allin1 :uel prices C2ranI an, 1reater nee, :or :orei1n ai, C*orth 8orea an, .9anmarID but that ma; de&end on the e)tent that authoritarian leaders care
about the well#being o< their &eo&le or <ace internal &olitical &ressures lin3ed to the econom;. So <arH there is little e=idence to suggest either and much e=idence to suggest these dangerous states see an o&&ortunit; to ad=ance their as;mmetrical ad=antages against the international s;stem.

Scholars
Im&acts# Econ Good# $2% En=ironment

>he En=ironment is im&ro=ing# won0t ha&&en @a;ward ' C)tephan 7. )enior 7ellowD 6aci:ic 0esearch 2nstitute :or 6ublic 6olic9D 1$$2-present D %3D T4ombor1
Gets the Galileo <reatmentQD http:33www.aei.or13outloo-31!242D C>I 2 was pro;o-e,DK 4ombor1 e plains. KI had ne=er reall; Juestioned m; belie< in an e=er deteriorating en=ironment--an, here was )imonD tellin1 me to put m9 belie:s un,er the statistical microscope .I Being a &ro<essor o< statisticsH he made a class &roLect o< chec3ing the data and re<uting Simon. But a <unn; thing ha&&ened on the wa; to debun3ing Simon% I1ot e=er;thing he said was correct but##contrar; to our e)&ectations##it turned out that a sur&risingl; large amount o< his &oints stood u& to scrutin; and con<licted with what we belie=ed oursel=es to 3now.I <hus chastene,D 4ombor1 set out in <he )-eptical En;ironmentalist to re:ute what he calls the litan9% 2e are all <amiliar with the 6itan;% the en=ironment is in &oor sha&e here in Earth. ?ur resources are running out. >he &o&ulation is e=er growingD lea;in1 less an, less to eat. <he air an, water are becomin1 e;er more pollute,. <he planetLs species are becomin1 e tinct in ;ast numbers--we -ill o:: more than 4%D%%% each 9ear. <he :orests are ,isappearin1D :ish stoc-s are collapsin1 an, the coral ree:s are ,9in1 . 2e are de<iling our EarthH the <ertile to&soil is disa&&earingR we are &a=ing o=er natureH destro;ing the wildernessH decimating the bios&hereH and will end u& 3illing oursel=es in the &rocess. <he worl,Ls ecos9stem is brea-in1 ,own. +e are :ast approachin1 the absolute limit o: ;iabilit9D an, the limits o: 1rowth are becomin1 apparent.W2X K<here is Eust one problemDK 4ombor1 a,,s. >he litan; Idoes not seem to be bac3ed u& b; the a=ailable e=idence.I >he S3e&tical En=ironmentalist re=iews trend dataH &rimaril; <rom !1 or other go=ernment sourcesH <or hundreds o< en=ironmental =ariables and <inds that most as&ects o< the worldGs en=ironment are either im&ro=ing or are not catastro&hic as the &ublic imagines. 4ombor1 Nuic-l9 a,,s that he is not sa9in1 that the en;ironment is :ineD that there is no cause :or worr9D or that ci;iliJation shoul, be content with the current state o: thin1s. <he point o: assessin1 an, comparin1 ;arious en;ironmental tren,s is to help polic9ma-ers set priorities amon1 ,i::erent en;ironmental problems. I2hen things are im&ro=ingHK 4ombor1 writesD Iwe 3now we are on the right trac3. $lthough &erha&s not at the right s&eed. K Con;ersel9D mislea,in1 perceptions lea, to misallocation o: resourcesD especiall9 in wealth9 countries.W3X As the U.). En;ironmental 6rotection A1enc9 :oun, in an internal stu,9 more than a ,eca,e a1oD :un,in1 priorities are o:ten in in;erse proportion to the seriousness o: en;ironmental problems.
Economic growth &re=ents en=ironmental destruction. Ben#$mi + CDanielD &ournalist with a )pecialt9 in EconomicsD E,itor o: 7un, )trate19D T+ho's a:rai, o:
economic 1rowthFQ .a9 4D 2%%(D http:33www.spi-e,-online.com3Articles3%%%%%%%C/%4D.htmD AD: "-(-$I /4 >he im&ortance o< economic growth to &ro=iding a better en=ironment should be clear . As a 1eneral rule the en=ironment in the de=elo&ed world is <ar better <or humans than in the &oorer countries . 7or man9 people in the worl,D malnutritionD as well as a lac- o: clean water an, mo,ern sanitationD are -e9 -illers. 2n a,,itionD the +orl, >ealth =r1anisation C+>=I estimates that 1.( million people a 9ear - that is one person e;er9 2% secon,s - ,ies as a result o: in,oor air pollution. As +>= notes: G4ore than hal< o< the worldGs &o&ulation rel; on dungH woodH cro& waste or coal to meet their most basic energ; needs. Coo3ing and heating with such solid <uels on o&en <ires or sto=es without chimne;s leads to indoor air &ollution. <his in,oor smo-e contains a ran1e o: health-,ama1in1 pollutants inclu,in1 small soot or ,ust particles that are able to penetrate ,eep into the lun1s.L C24I Bet those o: us luc-9 enou1h to li;e in the ,e;elope, worl, ,o not nee, to cope with such problems. )ince the o;erwhelmin1 maEorit9 o: us are connecte, to the electricit9 1ri,D 1as mains or bothD the scour1e o: in,oor air pollution is not a -iller. Economic de=elo&ment has &la;ed a 3e; role in im&ro=ing the en=ironment <or man; millions o< &eo&leH although man; more could gain <rom its bene<its in the <uture.

Scholars
Im&acts# Econ Good# $2% En=ironment

Qero growth &rohibits the disco=er; o< new resources or inno=ation # its ultimatel; unsustainable 9lorea - CA,rianD <he 4imits o: Mero Economic Growth )trate19D Uni;ersit9 o: =ra,eaD 7acult9 o: EconomicsD
http:33imtuora,ea.ro3auo.:mte3.2EH:iles374=0EAR2%AD02A*R2%1.p,:I 4E
7rom the be1innin1 the report entitle, d<he limits o: 1rowthQ was the topic o: some interestin1 ,isputes on the theme o: the limite, character o: resources conclu,e, in ;aluable stu,ies which are e;en to,a9 serious supports :or re:lectin1 on the :uture. <he stu,ies dCatastrophe or a new societ9F A latino-amercian mo,el o: the worl,FQD 6ublishe, b9 the Ar1entinean /ariloche 7un,ation ha;in1 Amilcar >errera as a coor,inator an, d.an-in, at crossroa,sQ b9 .ihailo .esaro;it an, E,uar, 6estel are Eust on e ample. <hese proEects o: worl, ,e;elopment ;ehementl9 criticiJe, the ,iscrepanc9 between the rich an, the poorD the immoralit9 o: waste in the ,e;elope, countries as compare, to the 1reat lac- in the thir, worl,U un,erline, the anno9in1 :act that din the ,e;elope, re1ions o: worl, the material consumption reache, the proportion o: an absur, wasteQD with all the conseNuences that come out. >he abo=e
mentioned stud; draws attention on a real <act% the e)istent resources es&eciall; row materials and energ; is limited. But <rom this realistic and necessar; <indingH to the suggestion o< a solution o< limiting the growthH the wa; was too easil; chosenH e=ading intentionall; or not the &romising chance that the dimension o< the 3nown resources will be multi&liedH on the basis o< the new disco=eries sustained b; the new achie=ements o< science and technics. $nd as i< this had not been enough the; didn0t ta3e into account the &ossibilit; that 3nown t;&e o< growth that alarmed through wasteH to be changed with a rational oneH based on another matri) o< =aluesH and on another technical wa; o< &roduction and consum&tion. +e ha;e to un,erline the :act that the &roLect o< zero growth was an attem&t to suggest that an; model o< economical growth must be thought on the canons o< logicsH hidden o< ideolog;. >he attem&t remained at a le=el o< suggestion because on the whole the; didn0t manage to &ro=e that de=elo&ment can be &art o< social#&olitical &attern. 7or instance when the societ9 o: :uture
is propose, to be an e1alitarian oneD to allow the participation o: all the countries in an eNual wa9D in the a,;anta1es that can be obtaine, on international tra,eU it is easil9 obser;able that this statement contains a bi1 amount o: i,eolo19. 2n spite o: all this :actsD we consi,er that the attempt ha, its roleD mainl9 that o: obEecti:ication o: the anal9sis on a :iel, o: acti;it9 which is not ne1li1ible. =n this open path the e::orts o: mathematical shapin1 an, :ormaliJin1 contribute, once a1ain to the 1rowth o: the scienti:ic an, obEecti;it9 le;el o: a :ormin1 science li-e the en;ironment econom9.
E=en with zero growth we would still e)haust all resources 9lorea - CA,rianD <he 4imits o: Mero Economic Growth )trate19D Uni;ersit9 o: =ra,eaD 7acult9 o: EconomicsD
http:33imtuora,ea.ro3auo.:mte3.2EH:iles374=0EAR2%AD02A*R2%1.p,:I 4E
Disasters o: a serious 1ra;it9 ma,e the worl, realise that the nature is in;a,e, with o::als an, that the ol, theories o: the ;alueD where onl9 the wor- an, the capital are consi,ere, main actorsD ,oes not pro;i,e a real e plainin1 basis. <husD the entropic ;alue was bornD which tells usD uncom:ortabl9. < hat we are using resources <rom a <inite de&osit and that we do not re&lace them with others. 2n the same wa9 the preoccupation :or the econom9 o: ;alue impose, itsel:D mo;in1 the centre o: the anal9sis :rom e plainin1 the causes o: the ;alueD :inite throu1h its natureD to be re,uce,D with the maintainin1 o: the Nualit9 o: the pro,uct in which it is incorporate,D Tthe tendenc; towards Jualit;O and
not Juantit;D to use a phrase pre:erre, b9 8e9nesD becomes an im&erati=e becauseD as 6aul /ran ,raws the attentionD TW>Uhe law o< the entro&ic =alue will not <orgi=e us i< we do not use the <eeding o< the 1ature with ser=ices meant to reduce the &ollution and to re&air what we bro3e ,urin1 the 9ears o: the [in,ustrial unleash'D o: the low entrop9 the:tD the:t :ollowe,D in man9 casesD b9 the ecolo1ical crimeQ. <here:oreH the econom; o< =alue sends directl; towards the reduction o< the consum&tions s&eci<ic to raw materials and energ;. In the conditions we 3now that the natural substance o< the goods cannot be lowered bellow certain thresholdH without Juestioning the e)istence o< the &roduct itsel<H it could be said that such a solution can onl; dela; the moment o< the resource e)haustion. $nd i< the whole remains the sameH we will get to its total consum&tion onl; laterH engaging and e)hausting decreasingl; <rom its contentH but we will get there.

Scholars
1*' Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Good# $2% En=ironment C $2% Carr;ing Ca&acit;

Carr;ing ca&acit; is arbitrar; Green * PC. Broo3sH ! o< Central $r3H http://www.brooksgreen.net/capacity.pdf.F Some scholars ha=e recognized carr;ing ca&acit; as &roblematic. 4uir P200'F arguesH M6ogistic growth is =er; idealizedH o< course. : Tcarr;ing ca&acit;U is not li3el; to be constant P<or e)am&leH ;ear#to#;ear changes in weather e<<ect <ood &roductionR the richer a li<e we desireH the lower : <or humans is li3el; to beH etc.F. @owe=erH the model is use<ul conce&tuall;.O 4uir P200'F concludes b; notingH MIt is unli3el;H howe=erH that we can de<ine a s&eci<ic : Pthat isH an actual numberF <or humans. P8eo&le seem to enLo; tr;ing though`F.O @ardin P200'F e)&resses similar concerns. @e maintainsH M>here is no ho&e o< e=er ma3ing carr;ing ca&acit; <igures as &recise asH sa;H the <igures <or chemical =alence or the =alue o< the gra=itational constant.O M$s a resultHO he writesH MW an; &articular <igure <or carr;ing ca&acit; has a substantial element o< the arbitrar; in it.O Carr;ing ca&acit; is =ariable C $da&tation sol=es Green * PC. Broo3sH ! o< Central $r3H http://www.brooksgreen.net/capacity.pdf.F
SecondH Cohen P1..*F li3ewise understood that M>he <uture o< the human &o&ulationH li3e the <uture o< its economiesH en=ironmentH and culturesH is highl; un&redictableO P'(1F. 2hile he noted MW a &robabilistic measure o< human carrying capacity has been de=elo&ed <or local &o&ulations in the $mazonH no &robabilistic a&&roach to global human &o&ulation carrying capacity has been de=elo&edO P'('F. @e <urther maintainsH MIn basic and a&&lied ecolog;H the carrying capacity o< nonhuman s&ecies has been de<ined in at least nine di<<erent wa;sH none o< which is adeJuate <or humansO P'('F. >he &roblem with calculating human carrying capacity is that M@uman carrying capacity de&ends both on natural constraintsH which are not <ull; understoodH and on indi=idual and collecti=e choices concerning the a=erage le=el and distribution o< material well#beingH technolog;H &olitical institutionsH economic arrangementH <amil; structureH migration and other demogra&hic arrangementsH &h;sicalH chemicalH and biological en=ironmentH =ariabilit; and ris3H the time horizonH and =aluesH tastesH and <ashionsO P'('F

Scholars
1*( Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Good# Climate Change

Ca&italism as sustained b; economic growth is 3e; to containing climate change Intelligence , CIntelli ence94$ 1lobal :orum reports on ,ebatesD oct. 3%-"D
http:33www.intelli1encesNuare,.com3e;ents3capitalism-can-sa;e-the-planet I E< <he panel ,ebate whether capitalism o::ers a ;iable solution :or the challen1e o: re,ucin1 carbon ,io i,e emissionsD an, whether carbon tra,in1 can sol;e the climate chan1e crisis without ,ama1in1 economic 1rowth. Ar1uin1 in :a;our o: the motion are <im >ar:or,D &ohn 0e,woo,D an, Eric /ettelheim. <im >ar:or, starts b9 supportin1 the motion. >e emphasises the necessit; to change the decisions made b; indi=iduals rather than introducing bureaucratic controlsH which he re1ar,s as counterpro,ucti;e. $s a solution to e<<ecti=el; reduce carbon dio)ide emissions he suggests the im&lementation o< a carbon &rice set b; the go=ernmentH which will subseJuentl; in<luence decisions made b; indi=iduals through mar3et mechanisms. &ohn 0e,woo, stresses the &ower o< the <ree enter&rise s;stem lin3ed with ca&italism. @e em&hasises the idea that ca&italism wor3s in &arallel with the grain o< human natureH and that ca&italistic societies will subseJuentl; &roduce a green &lanet as the; call <or it. 7inall9D Eric /ettelheim spea-s in :a;our :or the motion. >e remin,s the au,ience o: the :ailure o: the pre,ictions presente, b9 the Club o: 0omeD which <ailed as it did not ta3e into account the role o< mar3ets in the allocation o< resources. 0e:errin1 to the success o: the sul:ur ,io i,e tra,in1 pro1ram in the U)D he spea-s in :a;our o: an emission tra,in1 scheme :or carbon ,io i,e
Global warming leads to e)tinction# highest &robabilit; 5oach ( C&ohnD http:33news.national1eo1raphic.com3news32%%43%13%1%"H%4%1%"He tinction.html D National
2eo ra+hicD &ul9 12.4I E< $s global warming interacts with other <actors such as habitat-,estructionD in;asi;e speciesD an, the buil, up o: carbon ,io i,e in the lan,scapeD the ris3 o< e)tinction increases e=en <urtherD the9 sa9. 2n a1reement with the stu,9 authorsH 8ounds and 8uschendor< sa; ta3ing immediate ste&s to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is im&erati=e to constrain global warming to the minimum pre,icte, le;els and thus &re=ent man; o< the e)tinctions <rom occurring. I>he threat to li<e on Earth is not Eust a problem :or the :uture. 2t is part o: the here and nowHK the9 write.

Scholars
1** Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Good C?=er&o&ulation

Growth results in lower &o&ulation C Bangladesh stud; &ro=es @asan + C.ohamma,D Department o: 7inance an, EconomicsD A* E.6202CA4 2*?E)<2GA<2=* <=
DE<E0.2*E <>E 4=*G-0U* 0E4A<2=*)>26 /E<+EE* 6=6U4A<2=* G0=+<> A*D 6E0 CA62<A 2*C=.E 2* /A*G4ADE)>D http:33www.b,iusa.or136ublications3&/)3?olumes3?olume"3&/)".2-2-6art-1.p,:D 232%3%(D AD: "3(3%$I &C
>his &a&er em&iricall; e)amines the nature o< the time#series relationshi& between &o&ulation growth and &er ca&ita income growth using the annual data o< Bangladesh within the <ramewor3 o< cointegration methodolog;. >his stud; <inds e=idence o< a lon1-run stationar9 relationship between population an, per capita income. =ur results also in,icate a bi#directional or <eedbac3 relationshi& between &o&ulation and &er ca&ita income. >he results o< a negati=e causalit; <lowing <rom &er ca&ita income to &o&ulation growth a&&ear to indicate that &er ca&ita income tends to lower the &o&ulation growth. 4i-ewiseD population 1rowth positi;el9 contributes to the 1rowth o: per capita income.
In=erse relationshi& between <ertilit; rates and economic growth Schultz * C< 6aulD Bale Uni;ersit9 - Economic Growth CenterU 2nstitute :or the )tu,9 o: 4aborD 7ertilit9 an,
2ncomeD http:33papers.ssrn.com3sol33papers.c:mFabstractHi,G#3#22"D =ctober 2%%!D AD: "3(3%$I >here is an in=erse association between income &er adult and <ertilit; among countriesH and across
households this in=erse association is also o<ten obser=ed. 4an; studies <ind <ertilit; is lower among better educated women and is o<ten higher among women whose <amilies own more land and assets. 2hat do we 3now about the social conseJuences o< e=ents and &olicies that change <ertilit;H i< the; are inde&endent o< &arent &re<erences <or children or the economic conditions which account <or much o< the =ariation in &arent li<etime <ertilit;S >hese e::ects o: e o1enous :ertilit9 chan1e on the health an, wel:are o: chil,ren are assesse, :rom 8en9an househol, sur;e9 ,ata b9 anal9sis
o: the conseNuences o: twinsD an, the e::ect o: a;oi,in1 unanticipate, :ertilit9 appears to ha;e a lar1er bene:icial e::ect on the bo,9 mass in,e or health status o: chil,ren in the :amil9 than woul, be e pecte, ,ue to ;ariation in :ertilit9 which is accounte, :or b9 parent e,ucation an, househol, lan,.

Scholars
1*+ Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Good C?=er&o&ulation

Economic growth in=ersel; is &ro&ortional to &o&ulation growth 6ustig et al .- C*oraD *anc9 /ir,sall an, .onica Das GuptaD 2nternational Union :or the stu,9 o: populationD E
tract :rom a 0eport :rom the E plorator9 .ission on 6opulation an, 6o;ert9D http:33www.iussp.or13Acti;ities3scc-po;3po;-outline.phpD 12343$#D AD: "3(3%$I
>he &rediction <rom standard growth theor; is that &o&ulation and economic growth should be in=ersel; related during the transitionH but changes in &o&ulation growth should not a<<ect the long# run growth rate o< out&ut &er wor3er. +hat ,oes the empirical e;i,ence showF up until this ,eca,e researchers :aile, to
:in, an9 si1ni:icant relationship between population 1rowth an, output 1rowth C4I. <he interpretation was not that population ,i, not ha;e an e::ect on economic 1rowthD but that the e::ects were comple an, ten,e, to o::set one another. E;en in the cases where a ne1ati;e relationship was :oun,D it ;arie, consi,erabl9 b9 countr9 an, o;er timeD an, the impact o: population was small b9 comparison with other :actors a::ectin1 output 1rowth. >enceD the tra,itionalist ;iew that population 1rowth was ba, :or economic 1rowth was not stron1l9 supporte, b9 empirical e;i,ence. 5ecent researchD howe;erD arri;es at a ,i::erent conclusion C!I. A:ter
assessin1D replicatin1 an, e ten,in1 a number o: stu,iesD 8elle9 an, )chmi,t conclude that there a&&ears to be a sizeable in=erse relationshi& between &o&ulation growth and economic growth o;er the perio, 1$(%-1$$! C(I. )peci:icall9D declining &o&ulation growthH <ertilit; and mortalit; ha=e had a sizeable &ositi=e im&act on economic growth. Chan1in1 a1e ,istributions an, risin1 population ,ensit9 an, siJe also ha, a positi;e
impactD althou1h the contribution o: siJe is small. =: all the ,emo1raphic ;ariablesD impro;ements in li:e e pectanc9 constitute the lar1est sin1le impact on chan1es in output 1rowth. 7urthermoreD the authors also <ind some e=idence that the im&act o< demogra&hic change is not solel; transitional but that it also a<<ects long#run economic growth. <his result woul, impl9 that mechanisms other than those capture, b9 the stan,ar, neo-classical 1rowth mo,el are at wor- in the real worl,. =ne such mechanism coul, be the relationship between population 1rowth an, resource ,e1ra,ation. >hese results are good
news <or the man; countries that are now &assing through the demogra&hic transition. I< trueH the; &redict a boost to economic growth and an o&&ortunit; to accelerate the &ace o< &o=ert; reduction .
>owe;erD as emphasise, b9 the authorsD these results shoul, be ta-en as preliminar9. <he 8elle9 an, )chmi,t stu,9 is care:ul in incorporatin1 the ,9namics o: ,emo1raphic chan1e in their anal9sis C"I. <he impact on economic 1rowth o: a new birth ;aries o;er a li:etime: usuall9 ne1ati;e ,urin1 the chil, rearin1 9earsD then positi;e ,urin1 the labour :orce 9earsD an, possibl9 ne1ati;e ,urin1 retirement. .o,ellin1 o: ,emo1raph9 must account :or the patterns o: birth an, ,eath rate chan1es o;er time. )ome o: the earl9 Kno correlationK :in,in1s can possibl9 be ,ue to the :act that no care was ta-en in ,ecomposin1 population chan1e in its ;arious :actors. /utD the Nuestion still remains whether the results obtaine, b9 8elle9 an, )chmi,t Can, othersI are robust with respect to ,i::erent statistical speci:ications an, mo,ellin1 ;ariants. <his is an area where :urther research is welcome.

Scholars
1*, Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Good# $2% ?=er&o&ulation

1o Carr;ing Ca&acit;# Carr;ing ca&acit; is arbitrar; Green * CC. /roo-sD U o: Central Ar-D http:33www.broo-s1reen.net3capacit9.p,:.I E<
Some scholars ha=e recognized carr;ing ca&acit; as &roblematic. 4uir C2%%3I arguesH M6ogistic growth is =er; idealizedD o: course. 8 Wcarr;ing ca&acit;U is not li3el; to be constant C:or e ampleH ;ear#to#;ear changes in weather e<<ect <ood &roductionR the richer a li<e we desireH the lower 8 :or humans is li-el9 to beD etc.I. >owe;erD the mo,el is use:ul conceptuall9.Q .uir C2%%3I conclu,es b9 notin1D TIt is unli3el;D howe;erD that we can de<ine a s&eci<ic : Cthat isD an actual numberI <or humans. C6eople seem to enEo9 tr9in1 thou1hYI.Q >ar,in C2%%3I e presses similar concerns. >e maintainsD T >here is no ho&e o< e=er ma3ing carr;ing ca&acit; <igures as &recise asD sa9D the :i1ures :or chemical ;alence or the ;alue o: the 1ra;itational constant.Q TAs a resultDQ he writesD T^ an; &articular <igure <or carr;ing ca&acit; has a substantial element o< the arbitrar; in it.O
Carr;ing ca&acit; is =ariable# ada&tation sol=es Green * CC. /roo-esD U o: Central Ar-D http:33www.broo-s1reen.net3capacit9.p,:I E<
)econ,D Cohen C1$$!I li-ewise understood that M>he <uture o< the human &o&ulationH li3e the <uture o< its economiesH en=ironmentH and culturesH is highl; un&redictable Q C341I. +hile he note, T^ a probabilistic measure o< human carr;ing ca&acit; has been de=elo&ed <or local &o&ulations in the AmaJonD no &robabilistic a&&roach to global human &o&ulation carr;ing ca&acit; has been de=elo&ed Q C343I. >e :urther maintainsD MIn basic and a&&lied ecolog;H the carr;ing ca&acit; o< nonhuman s&ecies has been de<ined in at least nine di<<erent wa;sH none o< which is adeJuate :or humansQ C343I. <he problem with calculatin1 human carr9in1 capacit9 is that T@uman carr;ing ca&acit; de&ends both on natural constraintsH which are not <ull; understoodH and on indi=idual and collecti=e choices concerning the a=erage le=el and distribution o< material well#beingH technolog;D political institutionsD economic arran1ementD :amil9 structureD mi1ration an, other ,emo1raphic arran1ementsD ph9sicalD chemicalD an, biolo1ical en;ironmentD ;ariabilit9 an, ris-D the time horiJonD and =aluesH tastesH and <ashionsQ C343I

Scholars
1*Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Good# 5acism

Economic decline &rimaril; dri=es racism 1ew Dor3 >imes .0 CNew York Times$ =ct $%I E<
>he emanci&ation o< the sla=es did not lead directl; to segregation D as it shoul, ha;e i: $merican societ; was &rimaril; and <undamentall; racist. 5atherH segregation arose in res&onse to a threatening biracial &olitical challenge <rom blac3 and white <armers in the 1-.0Gs to the white elite -- which capitulate, to racism a:ter paternalism :aile,. Segregation colla&sed in the <ace o< a ci=il rights mo=ement sustained b; &ost#2orld 2ar II &ros&erit;H while racism is now resurgent in an era o< economic decline . <his o;ersimpli:ie, summar9 is meant to document the assertion that racism has been and continues to be <ostered b; com&etition <or limited resourcesH that isH it is &rimaril; a class issue. It can best be <ought b; &olicies <or economic andH henceH social Lustice.

Scholars
1*. Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Good# 5ussia Good# 1u3es

5ussian colla&se causes a global nuclear war Da=id .. P)te;enD 6ro:essor o: 6olitical )cience at <he &ohns >op-ins Uni;ersit9D Forei n A&&airsD &an37ebI E<
I< internal war does stri3e 5ussiaH economic deterioration will be a &rime cause. 7rom 1$#$ to the presentD the
GD6 has :allen b9 !% percent. 2n a societ9 whereD ten 9ears a1oD unemplo9ment scarcel9 e iste,D it reache, $.! percent in 1$$" with man9 economists ,eclarin1 the true :i1ure to be much hi1her. <went9-two percent o: 0ussians li;e below the o::icial po;ert9 line Cearnin1 less than O "% a monthI. .o,ern 0ussia can neither collect ta es Cit 1athers onl9 hal: the re;enue it is ,ueI nor si1ni:icantl9 cut spen,in1. 0e:ormers tout pri;atiJation as the countr9Ls cureallD but in a lan, without well-,e:ine, propert9 ri1hts or contract law an, where subsi,ies remain a wa9 o: li:eD the prospects :or transition to an Americanst9le capitalist econom9 loo- remote at best. As the massi;e ,e;aluation o: the ruble an, the current political crisis showD 0ussiaLs con,ition is e;en worse than most anal9sts :eare,. 2: con,itions 1et worseD e;en the stoic 0ussian people will soon run out o: patience. A :uture con:lict woul, Nuic-l9 ,raw in 0ussiaLs militar9. 2n the )o;iet ,a9s ci;ilian rule -ept the power:ul arme, :orces in chec-. /ut with the Communist 6art9 out o: o::iceD what little ci;ilian control remains relies on an e cee,in1l9 :ra1ile :oun,ation -- personal :rien,ships between 1o;ernment lea,ers an, militar9 comman,ers. .eanwhileD the morale o: 0ussian sol,iers has :allen to a ,an1erous low. Drastic cuts in spen,in1 mean ina,eNuate pa9D housin1D an, me,ical care. A new emphasis on ,omestic missions has create, an i,eolo1ical split between the ol, an, new 1uar, in the militar9 lea,ershipD increasin1 the ris- that ,is1runtle, 1enerals ma9 enter the political :ra9 an, :ee,in1 the resentment o: sol,iers who ,isli-e bein1 use, as a national police :orce. *ewl9 enhance, ties between militar9 units an, local authorities pose another ,an1er. )ol,iers 1row e;er more ,epen,ent on local 1o;ernments :or housin1D :oo,D an, wa1es. Dra:tees ser;e closer to homeD an, new laws ha;e increase, local control o;er the arme, :orces. +ere a con:lict to emer1e between a re1ional power an, .oscowD it is not at all clear which si,e the militar9 woul, support. Di;inin1 the militar9Ls alle1iance is crucialD howe;erD since the structure o: the 0ussian 7e,eration ma-es it ;irtuall9 certain that re1ional con:licts will continue to erupt. 0ussiaLs #$ republicsD -raisD an, oblasts 1row e;er more in,epen,ent in a s9stem that ,oes little to -eep them to1ether. As the central 1o;ernment :in,s itsel: unable to :orce its will be9on, .oscow Ci: e;en that :arID power ,e;ol;es to the peripher9. +ith the econom9 collapsin1D republics :eel less an, less incenti;e to pa9 ta es to .oscow when the9 recei;e so little in return. <hree-Nuarters o: them alrea,9 ha;e their own constitutionsD nearl9 all o: which ma-e some claim to so;erei1nt9. )tron1 ethnic bon,s promote, b9 shortsi1hte, )o;iet policies ma9 moti;ate non-0ussians to sece,e :rom the 7e,eration. Chechn9aLs success:ul re;olt a1ainst 0ussian control inspire, similar mo;ements :or autonom9 an, in,epen,ence throu1hout the countr9. 2: these rebellions sprea, an, .oscow respon,s with :orceD ci;il war is li-el9. )houl, 0ussia succumb to internal warD the conseNuences :or the Unite, )tates an, Europe will be se;ere. A maEor power li-e 0ussia -- e;en thou1h in ,ecline -- ,oes not su::er ci;il war Nuietl9 or alone. An embattle, 0ussian 7e,eration mi1ht pro;o-e opportunistic attac-s :rom enemies such as China. .assi;e :lows o: re:u1ees
Damage <rom the <ightingD particularl9 attac-s on nuclear &lantsH would &oison the en=ironment o< much o< Euro&e and $sia. +ithin 0ussiaD the conseNuences woul, be e;en worse. &ust as the sheer brutalit9 o: the last 0ussian ci;il war lai, the basis :or the pri;ations o: )o;iet communismD a secon, ci;il war mi1ht pro,uce another horri:ic re1ime. .ost alarmin1 is the real possibilit9 that the =iolent disintegration o< 5ussia could lead to loss o< control o=er its nuclear arsenal. *o nuclear state has e;er :allen ;ictim to ci;il warD but e;en without a clear prece,ent the 1rim conseNuences can be :oreseen. 0ussia retains some 2%D%%% nuclear weapons an, the raw material :or tens o: thousan,s moreD in scores o: sites scattere, throu1hout the countr9. )o :arD the 1o;ernment has mana1e, to pre;ent the loss o: an9 weapons or much material. 2: war eruptsD howe;erD 4oscowGs alread; wea3 gri& on nuclear sites will slac3enH ma3ing wea&ons an, supplies a=ailable to a wide range o< anti#$merican grou&s and states. Such dis&ersal o< nuclear wea&ons re&resents the greatest &h;sical threat $merica now <aces. $nd it is hard to thin3 o< an;thing that would increase this threat more than the chaos that would
woul, pour into central an, western Europe. Arme, stru11les in 0ussia coul, easil9 spill into its nei1hbors.

Scholars
1+0 Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Good# 5ussia Good# 1u3es

0ussian economic ,ecline causes nuclear 9ilger . C)hel,onD :oun,er o: Global Economic CrisisD The %u&&in ton Post$D !.1%.$D
http:33www.hu::in1tonpost.com3shel,on-:il1er3russian-econom9-:aces-,isHbH2%114".html I E< 2n 5ussiaD historicall9D economic health and &olitical stabilit; are intertwined to a degree that is rarel; encountered in other maEor in,ustrialiJe, economies. 2t was the economic stagnation o< the <ormer So=iet !nion that led to its &olitical down<all. )imilarl9D .e,;e,e; an, 8utinH both intimatel9 acNuainte, with their nationLs histor9D are unNuestionabl9 alarmed at the &ros&ect that 5ussiaGs economic crisis will endanger the nationGs &olitical stabilit;D achie;e, at 1reat cost a:ter 9ears o: chaos :ollowin1 the ,emise o: the )o;iet Union. Alrea,9D stri-es an, protests are occurrin1 amon1 ran- an, :ile wor-ers :acin1 unemplo9ment or non-pa9ment o: their salaries. 0ecent pollin1 ,emonstrates that the once supreme popularit9 ratin1s o: 6utin an, .e,;e,e; are ero,in1 rapi,l9. Be;ond the &olitical elites are the <inancial oligarchsH who ha=e been <orced to dele=erageH e=en unloading their ;achts and e)ecuti=e Lets in a des&erate attem&t to raise cash. Should the 5ussian econom; deteriorate to the &oint where economic colla&se is not out o< the JuestionH the im&act will go <ar be;ond the ob;ious accelerant such an outcome woul, be :or the Global Economic Crisis. <here is a 1eopolitical ,imension that is e;en more rele;ant then the economic conte t. Des&ite its economic =ulnerabilities and &ercei=ed decline <rom su&er&ower statusH 5ussia remains one o< onl9 two nations on earth with a nuclear arsenal o< su<<icient sco&e and ca&abilit; to destro; the world as we 3now it. 7or that reasonD it is not onl9 6resi,ent .e,;e,e; an, 6rime .inister 6utin who will be l9in1 awa-e at ni1hts o;er the prospect that a national economic crisis can trans:orm itsel: into a ;irulent an, ,estabiliJin1 social an, political uphea;al. 2t Eust ma9 be possible that U.).
5ussian economic colla&se breeds &olitical instabilit; and global insecurit; 9ilger . C)hel,onD :oun,er o: Global Economic CrisisD The %u&&in ton Post$D !.1%.$D
http:33www.hu::in1tonpost.com3shel,on-:il1er3russian-econom9-:aces-,isHbH2%114".html I E< 6resi,ent /arac- ?bamaGs national securit; team has alread; brie<ed him about the conseJuences o< a maLor economic meltdown in 5ussia :or the peace o: the worl,. A:ter allD the most recent national intelligence estimates &ut out b; the !.S. intelligence communit; ha;e alrea,9 conclu,e, that the Global Economic Crisis re&resents the greatest national securit; threat to the !nited StatesH due to its <acilitating &olitical instabilit; in the world. Durin1 the 9ears /oris Beltsin rule, 0ussiaD securit9 :orces responsible :or 1uar,in1 the nationLs nuclear arsenal went without pa9 :or months at a timeD lea,in1 to :ears that ,esperate personnel woul, illicitl9 sell nuclear weapons to terrorist or1aniJations. I< the current economic crisis in 5ussia were to deteriorate much <urtherH how secure would the 5ussian nuclear arsenal remain F 2t ma9 be that the :inancial impact o: the Global Economic Crisis is its least

Scholars
Im&acts# Econ Good# 5ussia Good# 2ar

5ussian growth &re=ents war with the !S Bronwen . C.a,,o D Chie: 7orei1n Commentator :or <he <imesD <he <imesD
http:33www.timesonline.co.u-3tol3comment3columnists3bronwe nHma,,o 3article( (!2$3(.ece I E< >he most interesting an, une pecte, ingredient in the 5ussia#!S summit is how well the 5ussian leaders ha=e managed the <inancial turmoil. <hat chan1es in their :a;ourD sli1htl9D the ,9namics o: the meetin1D which otherwise
turn on that peculiar 0ussian mi o: e tremes o: stren1th an, wea-ness. =n one han,D 6resi,ent .e,;e,e; an, ?la,imir 6utinD the 6rime .inisterD hol, car,s that matter hu1el9 to an9 U) presi,ent: nuclear missilesU oilU 1asU one o: the worl,'s lar1est armiesU :rien,ship with 2ranU in:luenceD obsessi;el9 ,eplo9e,D o;er the Caucasus an, Central AsiaU a permanent seat S an, ;eto S on the Unite, *ations )ecurit9 Council. =n the otherD there is the realit9 o: 0ussia's ;ulnerabilit9 on e;er9 count o: :inanceD tra,eD an, militar9 stren1th. <here are the bi1D bal, statistics o: its shrin-in1 population Calthou1h that ma9 be re;ersin1ID :allin1 li:e e pectanc9 Calthou1h that is su,,enl9 impro;in1ID an, stubborn po;ert9. .ost pain:ull9D tooD there is the memor9 o: the )o;iet era an, the incre,ulit9 at the sharpness o: the re;ersal. >he !S team has made clear that in its calculationH the strengths ma3e it worth its while tr;ing to MresetO the relationshi&. /ut the wea-nesses mean that i: the attempt :ailsD 0ussia coul, be rele1ate, behin, more pressin1 problems. <he element that mi1ht chan1e this calculation is the 0ussian lea,ers' recent s-il:ul mana1ement o: the econom9. It not onl9 &oints to sure<ootedness in economic managementH which their rhetoric
has not o<ten suggested. It o<<ers ho&e that 5ussia ma; <ind its wa; out o< its current sour resentmentH and autocratic ruleH and into a more stable <uture. A +orl, /an- report last month spelt out the une pecte, upsi,e to
0ussia's otherwise unsurprisin1 su::erin1 ,urin1 the crisis. BesD there has been plent9 o: ,ama1e. 0eal 1ross ,omestic pro,uct is e pecte, to shrin- b9 about ".$ per cent this 9ear Ccompare, with a 1lobal :all in output o: 2.$ per centI. <hat is a bi1 shoc- a:ter a ,eca,e o: hi1h 1rowthD ,ri;en b9 hi1h oil an, 1as prices. <he stoc- mar-et lost two thir,s o: its ;alue in the :i;e months to *o;ember 2%%#. Unemplo9ment coul, now rise to 13 per cent an, po;ert9 to 1".4 per cent b9 the en, o: the 9earD the ban- warne,D notin1 that the mi,,le class woul, also shrin- b9 a tenthD or more than si million peopleD to Eust o;er hal: the population. >owe;erD the ban-D which calle, the Go;ernment's response Tswi:tD co-or,inate,D an, comprehensi;eQD note, that 5ussia0s leaders had mo=ed
Juic3l; to cut s&ending as the oil &rice <ell Pincluding &ushing through an aggressi=e rethin3ing o< the militar;F. >he; had arranged a large stimulusH and had res&onded to the &lunge in <oreign reser=es
C:i1ures 9ester,a9 showe, a net capital in:low o: O".2 billion in the secon, Nuarter o: 2%%$D a:ter O3! billion :lowe, out in the :irst NuarterI. <he worst e::ects o: the crisis were perhaps pastD the ban- su11este,. 2: S a hu1e i: S 0ussia too- the chance to re:orm ol, in,ustriesD an, ma,e them more competiti;eD then it coul, come out o: the crisis with a more mo,ernD ,i;ersi:ie, econom9. <here are a :ew sli1ht si1ns that 0ussia's lea,ers mi1ht seiJe that chanceD such as the o;erhaul o: the militar9 CarmsD an, rules :or conscriptionI. Alternati;el9D the9 will persist with their techniNue o: blamin1 others :or their problemsD an, :ocusin1 on e ternal threatsD not obstacles at home. 8resident ?bama0s Juest o< tr;ing to <ind a new deal to cut stoc3&iles o< nuclear missiles is an
honourable one. But its success will de&end on whether 5ussia can be &ersuaded out o< the mindset in which the e)&ansion and success o< the Euro&ean !nion and 1ato are a threat. >he !S has had much less success with 5ussia than with China in &ersuading it o< the =alue o< becoming &art o< international organisations and laws. 1ot much in 8utin0s or 4ed=ede=0s recent beha=iour suggests that the; are that wa; inclined. All the sameD the wea-ness o: mo,ern 0ussiaD clutchin1 the :ew 1reat priJes o: its recent pastD in the :orm o: missiles an, oil wells while the rest lies in tattersD is one point o: le;era1e. )o is the 5ussian leaders0 astute reaction to the crisisH which the; dubbed the <ailure o< ca&italism. >hat shows that the; can set ideolog; aside and ta3e Juic3 ste&s in the countr;0s interest. >hat can onl; be a ho&e<ul sign <or 5ussia0s chances o< becoming a less <ear<ul and more modern state.

Scholars
Im&acts# Econ Good# $2% 5ussia Con<lict

5ussian growth &re=ents war with the !S C ca&italism must loo3 good in order to maintain its ideological &rominence and a=oid con<lict Bronwen . C.a,,o D Chie: 7orei1n Commentator :or <he <imesD <he <imesD
http:33www.timesonline.co.u-3tol3comment3columnists3bronwe nHma,,o 3article( (!2$3(.ece I E< >he most interesting an, une pecte, ingredient in the 5ussia#!S summit is how well the 5ussian leaders ha=e managed the <inancial turmoil. <hat chan1es in their :a;ourD sli1htl9D the ,9namics o: the meetin1D which otherwise
turn on that peculiar 0ussian mi o: e tremes o: stren1th an, wea-ness. =n one han,D 6resi,ent .e,;e,e; an, ?la,imir 6utinD the 6rime .inisterD hol, car,s that matter hu1el9 to an9 U) presi,ent: nuclear missilesU oilU 1asU one o: the worl,'s lar1est armiesU :rien,ship with 2ranU in:luenceD obsessi;el9 ,eplo9e,D o;er the Caucasus an, Central AsiaU a permanent seat S an, ;eto S on the Unite, *ations )ecurit9 Council. =n the otherD there is the realit9 o: 0ussia's ;ulnerabilit9 on e;er9 count o: :inanceD tra,eD an, militar9 stren1th. <here are the bi1D bal, statistics o: its shrin-in1 population Calthou1h that ma9 be re;ersin1ID :allin1 li:e e pectanc9 Calthou1h that is su,,enl9 impro;in1ID an, stubborn po;ert9. .ost pain:ull9D tooD there is the memor9 o: the )o;iet era an, the incre,ulit9 at the sharpness o: the re;ersal. >he !S team has made clear that in its calculationH the strengths ma3e it worth its while tr;ing to MresetO the relationshi&. /ut the wea-nesses mean that i: the attempt :ailsD 0ussia coul, be rele1ate, behin, more pressin1 problems. <he element that mi1ht chan1e this calculation is the 0ussian lea,ers' recent s-il:ul mana1ement o: the econom9. It not onl9 &oints to sure<ootedness in economic managementH which their rhetoric
has not o<ten suggested. It o<<ers ho&e that 5ussia ma; <ind its wa; out o< its current sour resentmentH and autocratic ruleH and into a more stable <uture. A +orl, /an- report last month spelt out the une pecte, upsi,e to
0ussia's otherwise unsurprisin1 su::erin1 ,urin1 the crisis. BesD there has been plent9 o: ,ama1e. 0eal 1ross ,omestic pro,uct is e pecte, to shrin- b9 about ".$ per cent this 9ear Ccompare, with a 1lobal :all in output o: 2.$ per centI. <hat is a bi1 shoc- a:ter a ,eca,e o: hi1h 1rowthD ,ri;en b9 hi1h oil an, 1as prices. <he stoc- mar-et lost two thir,s o: its ;alue in the :i;e months to *o;ember 2%%#. Unemplo9ment coul, now rise to 13 per cent an, po;ert9 to 1".4 per cent b9 the en, o: the 9earD the ban- warne,D notin1 that the mi,,le class woul, also shrin- b9 a tenthD or more than si million peopleD to Eust o;er hal: the population. >owe;erD the ban-D which calle, the Go;ernment's response Tswi:tD co-or,inate,D an, comprehensi;eQD note, that 5ussia0s leaders had mo=ed
Juic3l; to cut s&ending as the oil &rice <ell Pincluding &ushing through an aggressi=e rethin3ing o< the militar;F. >he; had arranged a large stimulusH and had res&onded to the &lunge in <oreign reser=es
C:i1ures 9ester,a9 showe, a net capital in:low o: O".2 billion in the secon, Nuarter o: 2%%$D a:ter O3! billion :lowe, out in the :irst NuarterI. <he worst e::ects o: the crisis were perhaps pastD the ban- su11este,. 2: S a hu1e i: S 0ussia too- the chance to re:orm ol, in,ustriesD an, ma,e them more competiti;eD then it coul, come out o: the crisis with a more mo,ernD ,i;ersi:ie, econom9. <here are a :ew sli1ht si1ns that 0ussia's lea,ers mi1ht seiJe that chanceD such as the o;erhaul o: the militar9 CarmsD an, rules :or conscriptionI. Alternati;el9D the9 will persist with their techniNue o: blamin1 others :or their problemsD an, :ocusin1 on e ternal threatsD not obstacles at home. 8resident ?bama0s Juest o< tr;ing to <ind a new deal to cut stoc3&iles o< nuclear missiles is an
honourable one. But its success will de&end on whether 5ussia can be &ersuaded out o< the mindset in which the e)&ansion and success o< the Euro&ean !nion and 1ato are a threat. >he !S has had much less success with 5ussia than with China in &ersuading it o< the =alue o< becoming &art o< international organisations and laws. 1ot much in 8utin0s or 4ed=ede=0s recent beha=iour suggests that the; are that wa; inclined. All the sameD the wea-ness o: mo,ern 0ussiaD clutchin1 the :ew 1reat priJes o: its recent pastD in the :orm o: missiles an, oil wells while the rest lies in tattersD is one point o: le;era1e. )o is the 5ussian leaders0 astute reaction to the crisisH which the; dubbed the <ailure o< ca&italism. >hat shows that the; can set ideolog; aside and ta3e Juic3 ste&s in the countr;0s interest. >hat can onl; be a ho&e<ul sign <or 5ussia0s chances o< becoming a less <ear<ul and more modern state.

Scholars
1+' Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Good# $2% 5ussia Build !&

Concerns about arms sales to 5ussia are sill;# stabilizes the region Gorenburg 10 CDmitr9D E ecuti;e DirectorD American Association :or the A,;ancement o: )la;ic )tu,iesD
Russian 'ilitar" ForumD !.12.1%D http:33russiamil.wor,press.com32%1%3%!3123russian-:orei1n-arms-purchases-are1oo,-:or-re1ional-stabilit93 I E< $ great deal o< in3 has been s&illed recentl; about how terrible it is that a number o< Euro&ean 1$>? members are considering selling arms and militar; eJui&ment to 5ussia. .an9 commentators =ehementl; argue against such arms sales. <he reasons <or the o&&osition are rarel9 state, openl9D but when the9 are the9 tend to <ocus on the <ear that such deals would tie 2est Euro&ean states more closel; to 5ussiaH &re=enting them <rom standing <irm against 5ussian &olicies that the commentators o&&ose. A secon,ar9 reason is that these ,eals woul, impro;e 0ussian militar9 capabilities. Both o< these reasons are <undamentall; misguided. 7irst o: allD countless studies ha=e shown that greater ties between states reduce the li3elihood o< con<lict between them.
5ussia bu;ing more arms good# ma3es them de&endent on 1$>? Gorenburg 10 CDmitr9D E ecuti;e DirectorD American Association :or the A,;ancement o: )la;ic )tu,iesD
Russian 'ilitar" ForumD !.12.1%D http:33russiamil.wor,press.com32%1%3%!3123russian-:orei1n-arms-purchases-are1oo,-:or-re1ional-stabilit93 I E< I< 9rance or German; sell militar; eJui&ment to 5ussiaH the; not onl9 establish closer ties between their militariesD but the; also ma3e the 5ussian militar; more de&endent on 1$>? militar; eJui&ment. Col, warriors seem to thin- that the ,epen,enc9 ar1ument onl9 runs in one ,irection S +estern states who sell to 0ussia woul,n't want to lose salesD so the9'll ,o whate;er 0ussia wants. /ut the road o< mutual de&endence is a two wa; street. I< 5ussia starts bu;ing certain cate1ories o< militar; eJui&ment <rom abroadH its ,omestic ,e:ense in,ustr9 will li3el; lose whate=er ca&abilit; it still has to &roduce that categor; o< eJui&ment. 5ussia will then de&end on 1$>? states <or the &rocurement Pand perhaps maintenanceF o< its militar; eJui&ment.
5ussia arm bu;ing increases 2estern control o=er 5ussia# it0s good Gorenburg 10 CDmitr9D E ecuti;e DirectorD American Association :or the A,;ancement o: )la;ic )tu,iesD
Russian 'ilitar" ForumD !.12.1%D http:33russiamil.wor,press.com32%1%3%!3123russian-:orei1n-arms-purchases-are1oo,-:or-re1ional-stabilit93 I E< 2n that situationD 5ussian leaders will ha=e to thin3 twice be<ore underta3ing an; actions towards 1$>? that are su::icientl9 hostile as to result in it being cut o<< <rom access to such eJui&ment . >his <orm o< de&endence is much more serious. A:ter allD i< 5ussia gets u&set with 9rance and sto&s bu;ing its militar; eJui&mentH 9rench arms manu<acturers will lose some mone; and &erha&s some 9rench &eo&le will lose their Lobs. /ut i: 9rance cuts o<< militar; sales to 5ussia in a situation where 0ussia is ,epen,ent on 7rance :or certain t9pes o: eNuipmentD 5ussian securit; will su<<er.

Scholars
1+( Econ Growth Good/Bad
Im&acts# Econ Good# $2% 5ussia Build !&

$nd 5ussian arm bu;ing doesn0t ma3e con<lict worse# Georgia &ro=es Gorenburg 10 CDmitr9D E ecuti;e DirectorD American Association :or the A,;ancement o: )la;ic )tu,iesD
Russian 'ilitar" ForumD !.12.1%D http:33russiamil.wor,press.com32%1%3%!3123russian-:orei1n-arms-purchases-are1oo,-:or-re1ional-stabilit93 I E< )ome anal9sts <ear that 5ussia could use eJui&ment &urchased <rom 1$>?H such as the .istral shipsD to attac3 its neighbors. >he 200- Georgia war showed that e=en without 1$>? eJui&ment the 5ussian militar; is &lent; strong enou1h to de<eat a small and wea3 arm; o: the -in, that Eust about all o: its imme,iate nei1hbors possess. +estern arms sales are not necessar; <or 5ussia to be able to success<ull; underta3e hostile action against a countr; li3e Georgia. But a1ainH i< 1$>? arms sales to 5ussia become ubiJuitousH 5ussia ma; well become more hesitant to underta3e actions that could &otentiall; result in the cut#o<< o< such arms sales. 2n other wor,sD 2estern le=erage o=er 5ussian actions will actuall; increase.
5ussia bu;ing arms im&ro=es !S securit; Gorenburg 10 CDmitr9D E ecuti;e DirectorD American Association :or the A,;ancement o: )la;ic )tu,iesD
Russian 'ilitar" ForumD !.12.1%D http:33russiamil.wor,press.com32%1%3%!3123russian-:orei1n-arms-purchases-are1oo,-:or-re1ional-stabilit93 I E< )econ,D i< 5ussia starts using 1$>? eJui&mentH this will im&ro=e intero&erabilit; between 5ussian and 1$>? militar; <orcesH ma3ing their e<<orts at militar9 cooperation more e<<ecti=e. )ince the two si,es are much more li-el9 to wor- to1ether on potential issues such pirac9D smu11lin1 an, counter-terrorism than the9 are to actuall9 :i1ht each otherD it seems to me that selling 1$>? eJui&ment to 5ussia can onl; lead to im&ro=ements in securit; <or 1$>? states.
5ussian leaders don0t trust their own arms# shows the; need international communit; Gorenburg 10 CDmitr9D E ecuti;e DirectorD American Association :or the A,;ancement o: )la;ic )tu,iesD
Russian 'ilitar" ForumD !.12.1%D http:33russiamil.wor,press.com32%1%3%!3123russian-:orei1n-arms-purchases-are1oo,-:or-re1ional-stabilit93 I E< 5ussian leaders ha=e recentl9 contem&lated a large number o< &otential arms &urchases :rom abroa,D including both basic eJui&mentH such as uni<ormsH wea&onr;H such as sni&er ri<lesH and maLor &lat<ormsD such as amphibious assault ships an, armore, ;ehicles. >his shows that these leaders no longer trust the ca&abilities o< 5ussia0s domestic de<ense industr; to rebuild the 5ussian arm;H which is eJui&&ed almost entirel; with aging So=iet#era technolog;. <he9 ha;e come to un,erstan, that <oreign ties are onl; wa; to rebuild their militar; ca&abilities in a reasonable time <rame.
5ussia $rms sales are in interest o< !S securit; &aradigm Gorenburg 10 CDmitr9D E ecuti;e DirectorD American Association :or the A,;ancement o: )la;ic )tu,iesD
Russian 'ilitar" ForumD !.12.1%D http:33russiamil.wor,press.com32%1%3%!3123russian-:orei1n-arms-purchases-are1oo,-:or-re1ional-stabilit93 I E< 2estern leaders should encourage this trendD because it will onl; enhance regional and global securit; . 5ather than Meroding the e<<ecti=eness o< 1$>? &olicies toward 5ussia an, in *A<='s own eastern nei1hborhoo,DQ e)tensi=e arms sales b; 1$>? states to 5ussia will increase 5ussian de&endence on the 2estD decreasing the li3elihood that 5ussia would ta3e unilateral militar; action contrar; to 2estern interestsD while enhancing regional securit; b9 impro;in1 the abilit9 o: 0ussian :orces to cooperate with *A<= :orces a1ainst threats to their mutual securit9.

Scholars
1+* Econ Growth Good/Bad
>ransition

Scholars
1++ Econ Growth Good/Bad
>ransition Des C $2% 1o >ech

"uic3 transition to low growth is <easible >rainer -. P4ecturer o: economics at uni;ersit9 o: new south +alesD ,e;elope, to ,eath 1$#$D p2%"I
4ost de=elo&ment theorists ra,ical as well as con;entionalD seem to ha=e little or no idea o< the &otential <or a&&ro&riate de=elo&ment inherent in these e)isting alternati=e technologies. 4ost recommend the acce&tance o< decades o< <urther su<<ering on the &art o< billions o< &eo&le until tric3le down sa=es them or until ca&italism sel<#destructsH essentiall; because the; do not understand that we alread; ha=e the ideas and techniJues necessar; to enable those &eo&le to build satis<actor; economies <or themsel=es within a :ew 9earsD an, in man9 cases within a <ew months.

Scholars
1+, Econ Growth Good/Bad
>ransition Des C $2% Bac3lash

>ransition is underwa; C attitude shi<t is occurring @enderson .1 D >aJel CDirector o: worl,wi,e watch instituteD para,i1ms in process li:e be9on, economicsI 1$$1
2hat we see emerging toda; in all the industrial societies are basic =alue and beha=ior shi<tsH new &erce&tions and an emerging &aradigmH based on <acing u& to a new awareness o< &lanetar; realties and con<irmed b; a M&ost#CartesianO scienti<ic world=iew based on biolo1ical an, s9stemic li<e sciencesH rather than inorganicH mechanistic models. Its &rinci&les in=ol=e% InterconnectednessH redistributionH heterarch;H com&lementarit;H uncertaint; and change. <he newl9 interlin-e, a1en,a o: citiJens. >hese new world=iews are alread; generating better &olic; tools and modelsH be;ond economics : technolo19 assessmentD social an, Eob impact stu,iesD en;ironmental impact statementsD :uture researchD cross-impact stu,iesD scenario buil,in1D 1lobal mo,elin1 an, :orecastin1 no lon1er base, on past tren, e trapolation . $t the grassroots le=elH in academiaH and all our institutions the &olitics o< reconce&tualization ahs begun. +e see it in the newl9 interlin-e, a1en,as o: citiJens con;er1in1 on the &une 1$$2 U* Earth )ummit in 0io ,e &aniero an, in the emer1ence o: human ri1hts an, planetar9 citiJenship. >hese mo=ements all embrace a new world order based on renewable resources and energ;H sustainable <orms o< &roducti=it; and &er ca&ita consum&tionH ecologicall;#based science and technologies and eJuitable sharing o< resources within and between countries as the onl; &ath to &eace#3ee&ing and redirecting the billions s&ent on the global arms race.
>he world is embracing the new econom; C transition is underwa; 8ederson . CDa;i,D 4-1!-$D <he *ew Ecolo1ical Growth Econom9D 6olic9 2nno;ationsD
http:33www.polic9inno;ations.or13i,eas3commentar93,ata3%%%121I $ new econom; is on the doorste&. 2tLs not the econom9 we use, to -now as Kthe new econom9.K ItGs not the in<ormation#technolog;#dri=en growth o: the last :ew ,eca,esD althou1h that ma-es up part o: the new econom9. A new econom9 is rapi,l9 emer1in1D one which will trans:orm the wa9s that people li;e an, ,o business. >he name o< the new new econom; is the Iecological growth econom; .K <his is neither a ba, Eo-e nor an anachronism. It is the emerging new realit;. It is also the &recondition <or the continuation o< human &rogress and the sur=i=al o< millions o< other s&ecies on Earth. +e ha;e an ob;ious choice: +e can spee, up the realiJation o: the ecolo1ical 1rowth econom9 nowD or our chil,ren an, theirs will su::er :or centuries. 2t appears to be an eas9 choiceD ,oesnLt itF +e can choose human pro1ress o;er su::erin1. An, 9etD we are not ma-in1 this choice at su::icient spee, or scale to,a9. 21noranceD institutional inertiaD ;este, interestsD an, 1ree, are the main reasons :or our :ar-too-slow action. >owe;erD as sentient creatures C>omo sapiensID humans are eNuippe, with -nowle,1eD 1oo, willD an, a ,e1ree o: wis,om. $ maLorit; o< &eo&le around the Earth toda; are realizing that we cannot sur=i=e without embracing the ecological growth econom;. 4ost &eo&le are willing to Loin <orces and are willing to ma3e certain sacri<ices in li:est9le to achie;e an econom9 that will allow the continuation o: human pro1ress into :uture 1enerations. 7ortunatel9D an increasing number o< &eo&le are ma3ing great e<<orts to bring about this new econom;.

Scholars
1+Econ Growth Good/Bad
>ransition Des C $2% 4indset

Dede= shi<ts =alues C realizations o< limits o< growth :assiola .0 C&oelD 6ro: o: 6oli-)ci P /roo-l9n Colle1eD $%D p. 1$(I E<
<o sum up the main thrust o: this chapterD 2 belie;e that the current in,ustrial crisis centering on the limits to growth can be instrumental in getting citizens o: a,;ance, in,ustrial societies to recognize the erroneous nature o< the dominant postin,ustrial social para,i1mD its wa9 o: li:eD an, =alues. As a conseNuenceD this crisis will stimulate these citizens to be conscious o< their societ;0s de<iciencies ins&iring the destruction o< the limitless growth illusion as well as the illusor; materialist reductionism o< humanit;H societ;H and &olitics. +hat 2 ha;e in min, here is that the entire growth#addicti=e conce&tual a&&aratus that su&&orts &ostindustrial societ;H the industrial ideolog; containing the @obbesian conce&tion o< humanit;H liberalismH materialismH and com&etiti=eness Sall must be destro;ed as well. Such a cleansing process will &a=e the wa; to begin the necessar; trans<ormation o< &ostindustrial societ; to a transindustrial oneU one not burdened b; these wea3nesses that are potentiall9 <atal to our &lanet and all o< its inhabitants.
Aalue shi<t due to de#de= changes social order :assiola .0 C&oelD 6ro: o: 6oli-)ci P /roo-l9n Colle1eD $%D p. #1I E<
=: courseD we -now that the &ur&orted Mtrans&oliticalO claim o< economic growth as a substitute <or redistribution is the result o< an illusion Ceconomic brain damageI brought on b; the ideolog; o< economic reductionist doctrine o< unlimited economic growth and the elites whose interests this ideolog; ser=es. >his illusion is rapi,l9 bein1 e)&osed b; the disguiseli<tingH consciousness#creating and consciousness#raisingH limits to growth an, their conseNuences. ?nce the doctrine o< the limitlessness o: economic growth is Juestioned as bein1 either impossible to achie;e an,3or un,esirable in itsel:D its resulting ideological mani&ulation will be recognized b; its =ictims and therea:ter challenged b9 them. <husD this reco1nition will destro; this illusion0s &olitical e<<ecti=eness Lust as the awareness o< an; illusion &roduces its own sel<#destruction. >ence the nee, :or political ,isillusionment when the illusions are as ,ama1in1 as this one. >he &ath to Lo; isD in,ee,D through the des&air o< the mourning &eriod <or our <antasies. 2hen the <antas; o< unlimited economic growth is recognized as such we ma; then procee, to create a social order whose conditions <or e)istence do not reJuire such delusions or its detrimental e<<ects. 1o wonder the rhetoric o< both sides o: the limits-to-1rowth contro;ers9 is im&assionedVso much is at sta3eY

Scholars
1+. Econ Growth Good/Bad

Dede= shi<ts =alues C dede= lit &ro=es :assiola .0 C&oelD 6ro: o: 6oli-)ci P /roo-l9n Colle1eD $%D p. 3(I E<
<he strong resistance b; de<enders o< the &ostindustrial status Juo and ad=ocates o< &rogrowth =alues to claims o< the e istence o: the industrial crisis and to &leas <or a reassessment o< industrial =alues b9 the limits-to-1rowth a,;ocates tends to su&&ort @irschman0s Ma=oidanceO e)&lanation. 7rom this perspecti;eD 0onal, 0ea1an's an, other &rogrowth &ro&onents0 electoral successes throu1hout postin,ustrial societ9 and the &ublic enthusiasm <or their message o< ceaselessH unlimited economic growth :or all ma; be =iewed as part o: this disa&&ointment#den;ing phenomenon. It was so much more com<orting to hear the messa1e o< the resur1ence o: America an, the coming limitless &ros&erit;S' [the mornin1 in America' [Sthen to admit that at its <oundation was a <antas; and that a change in our =alues and social order were necessar;Y *e;erthelessD consi,erin1 the reluctance o: man-in, to e perience ,isappointment an, a,mit errorsSan, our ten,enc9 to ,en9 realit9 in or,er to accomplish these obEecti;esS the <act that the a&ocal;&tic limits#to#growth literature and critical en=ironmental mo=ement e)ist at allH es&eciall; as e)tensi=el; and in<luentiall; as the; do in the multidisci&linar; scholarl; communit;H the &ublic mediaH and slowl; but signi<icantl; within the &ublic at lar1eD'2 &ro=ides e=idence that the &henomenon o< human denial is brea3ing down as social conditions worsen and the undesirable conseJuences o< industrial =alues are e)&erienced directl; b; more ad=anced industrial citizens .
Aalue shi<t 3e; to social change :assiola .0 C&oelD 6ro: o: 6oli-)ci P /roo-l9n Colle1eD $%D p. 1""-#I E<
As )later has ar1ue,D &ersonal PandD 2 woul, a,,D socialI change reJuires a disillusionment with the current =alues and belie<s. >here are indications o< such disillusionment that should encourage ad=ocates o< trans<ormational change within industrial societies : the &ersistent an, ;arious en=ironmental grou&s throu1hout the in,ustrial nation-states e=en through &oor economic times when &rogrowth critics e)&ected a return to the priorit9 o: materialism an, economic ;aluesU!( the rise o: new social mo=ements throu1hout the postin,ustrial worl,D li3e the GreensD proclaimin1 alternati;e nonmaterialist ;aluesU and the wor3&lace democrac; mo=ement increasin1 the autonom9 o: wor-ers as well as humaniJin1 the nature o: in,ustrial wor-. $ll o: these challenge the dominance o< e)isting &ost# industrial =alues and social conditions. >he; also re=eal that the e,ucationalD conscientiJin1D disillusioning &rocess pertainin1 to postin,ustrial li:e an, ;alues has alread; begun. >he e)cesses o< limitless industrialismS ecolo1icalD normati;eD an,D i: 9ou willD spiritualSimpl9in1 the e istence o: limits be9on, which Te cessQ is ,e:ine,D are beginning to be understood b; the &ostindustrial &ublic at large Y

Scholars
1,0 Econ Growth Good/Bad

Crisis 3e; to shi<t to dede= =alues :assiola .0 C&oelD 6ro: o: 6oli-)ci P /roo-l9n Colle1eD $%D p. 2#-$I E<
2 thin- that this ps9cholo1ical anal9sis pro;i,es insi1ht into much o: the pre,icament o: contemporar9 in,ustrial citiJens an, their culture. >he illusion o< unlimited economic growth that <orms the bedroc3 o< industrial ci=ilizationD the ,ream o: limitless economic 1rowth with prosperit9 :or e;er9oneD an, the social ;alue o: Tunlimite, pro1ressQ has been challenged e<<ecti=el; b; recent de=elo&ments. <hese inclu,e: bio&h;sical limits asserte, b9 the limits-to-1rowth a,;ocates and recent shoc3ing en=ironmentalH economic and &olitical e=ents. E;en the stea,:ast de<enders o< industrialism <ind themsel=es either den;ing that a crisis e)ists at all an, 1oin1 on to counterattac- the limits-to-1rowth critics o: in,ustrial societ9 Cas e empli:ie, b9 the pro1rowth literature an, ,e:en,ers o: in,ustrial culture such as the contributors to the )imon an, 8ahn ;olumeI or su<<ering the &ains o< being tra&&ed in their incom&lete des&air because the; still hold on to the idea that industrial culture can somehow be sal=aged with its basic =alues intactD inclu,in1 unlimite, economic 1rowth. >hese industrial diehardsD :rom scholars li-e /ec-ermanD 8ahn an, &ulian 4. )imonD to ;irtuall9 all polic9ma-ers li-e :ormer presi,ent 0onal, 0ea1an ,own to the count9 an, municipal lea,ers Cbut see rise o: anti1rowth mo;ement in American +estI D"( hang on toD instea, o: mourn :orD their illusor; unlimited growth conce&tion that deser=es to be laid to rest. 5idding oursel=es o< that conce&t and recognizing its <utilit; as well as undesirabilit; would <ree industrial inhabitants to create a new and more satis<;ing social order <or all o< its members. >his could occur des&ite the tem&orar; grie< associated with the mourning &eriod <or our <antasies that would surel; characterize the transitional &eriod. T)o lon1 as we ima1ine thin1s are 1ettin1 better we will ne;er ree amine basic assumptions.Q""

Scholars
>ransition Des C @undredth 4on3e;

>ransition will ha&&en# the hundredth mon3e; will arise <rom the oil s&ill 5u&&ert 10 C.ichaelD author o: Crossin1 <he 0ubicon: <he Decline o: the American Empire at the En, o: the
A1e o: =ilD Peak 0ilD !.2.1%D http:33pea-oil.com3en;iroment3michael-ruppert-1ul:-oil-lea--catastrophic3I E< +orse: >he oil slic3 is now the size o< Delaware. It will be ?hio#sized within da;s. 9lorida has declared a state o< emergenc;. All commercial :ishin1 in the Gul: is threatene,. $ll widli<e is threatened. An, when an, i: the slic- 1ets to *=4A it will ha;e a ,isatarous impact on ener19 pro,uction an, the bra;eD battere,D coura1eous people who li;e there. Coastal re:ineries ma9 ha;e to close^ +hat mi1ht happen i: the oil i1nite,F =il shoul, be at O1%% be:ore the en, o: ne t wee-. 2 suspect between O1!% an, O2%% Cma9be hi1herI this summer. +orse: *apolitano an, )alaJar are alrea,9 tal-in1 about hu1e claim :un,s. .assi;e classactions a1ainst /6 are startin1. 2nsurance claims ma9 well ,war: 8atrina. <he econom9 o: the entire Gul: Coast is in Eeopar,9. 7rom what 2 hear, there is no real plan to stop the lea- an, no estimation as to when that will happen. C2 mi1ht ha;e misse, that.I +hat happens when the slic- hits CubaF <he rest o: the CaribbeanF <he current :ra,ulent +all )treet bubble will pop in shorter or,er than anticipate,. 2ithin about a wee3H man0s greed and reach <or energ; ha=e <ound natural and un;ielding limits. >wo coal mine disasters and an oil slic3 that will cause as ;et un3nown catastro&hic damage D loss o: li:e an, propert9. An, ;et there are still those in this mo=ement who thin3 we need to argue with &eo&le who belie=e there0s &lent; o< eas; oil about an;thing. 2t woul, be so poetic i: histor9 recor,e, that this was the e;ent that mar-e, the cli:: e,1e o: human in,ustrial ci;iliJation. 4a;be then someone will get the &oint. 4a;be then we will <ind our hundredth mon3e;W An, ma9be .other Earth will ha;e poisone, us with the substance we ha;e so 1ree,il9 rape, her S an, -ille, each other S :or^ TDou want oilSW I0ll gi=e ;ou oil.O

Scholars
>ransition Des C @undredth 4on3e;

@undredth mon3e; means that when awareness reaches a critical &ointH it becomes uni=ersal :e;es . C8enD Chairman o: *ational /lac- <ra,e AssociationD
http:33www.nbbta.or13members3hea,Nuarters3blo13?2E+3%%%%%%%33%%%%%%423<he-1%%th-.on-e9)tor9.html\%%%%%%42 I E< >he /a&anese mon3e;D .acaca :uscataD has been obser=ed in the wild <or a &eriod o< o=er '0 ;ears. 2n 1$!2D on the islan, o: 8oshima scientists were &ro=iding mon3e;s with sweet &otatoes dro&&ed in the sand. >he mon3e;s li3ed the taste o< the raw sweet &otatoesH but the; <ound the dirt un&leasant. An 1#month-ol, :emale name, Imo <ound she could sol=e the &roblem in a nearb; stream. She taught this tric3 to her mother. >er pla9mates also learne, this new wa9 an, the9 tau1ht their mothersD too. <his cultural inno;ation was 1ra,uall9 pic-e, up b9 ;arious mon-e9s be:ore the e9es o: the scientists. /etween 1$!2 an, 1$!#D all the 9oun1 mon-e9s learne, to wash the san,9 sweet potatoes to ma-e them more palatable. =nl9 the a,ults who imitate, their chil,ren learne, this social impro;ement. =ther a,ults -ept eatin1 the ,irt9 sweet potatoes. <hen somethin1 startlin1 too- place. In the autumn o< 1.*-H a certain number o< :oshima mon3e;s were washing sweet &otatoesVthe e)act number is not 3nown. 6et us su&&ose that when the sun rose one mornin1 there were .. mon3e;s on :oshima Island who had learned to wash their sweet &otatoes. 4et's :urther suppose that later that morningH the hundredth mon3e; learned to wash &otatoes. >@E1 I> @$88E1ED` /9 that e;enin1 almost e;er9one in the tribe was washin1 sweet potatoes be:ore eatin1 them. >he added energ; o< this hundredth mon3e; somehow created an ideological brea3throughY /ut notice. A most surprisin1 thin1 obser;e, b9 these scientists was that the habit o: washin1 sweet potatoes then Eumpe, o;er the sea ^Colonies o: mon-e9s on other islan,s an, the mainlan, troop o: mon-e9s at <a-asa-i9ama be1an washin1 their sweet potatoesY <husD when a certain critical number achie=es an awarenessH this new awareness ma; be communicated <rom mind to mind. Althou1h the e act number ma9 ;er9D the >un,re,th .on-e9 6henomenon means that when onl9 a limite, number o: people -now o: a new wa9D it ma9 remain the consciousness propert9 o: these people. But there is a &oint at which i< onl; one more &erson tunes#in to a new awarenessH a <ield is strengthened so that this awareness is &ic3ed u& b; almost e=er;oneY ^

Scholars
1,' Econ Growth Good/Bad
>ransition# Des# ?il S&ill

B8 oil enables transition# ma3es mindset o< anti ca&italist go=ernment that <ocuses on &ro<it Cardinale +/'0 CmatthewD 7oun,er an, *ews E,itor o: Atlanta 6ro1ressi;e *ews (.3%.1%D Common DreamsD
http:33www.common,reams.or13hea,line32%1%3%(33%-1% I E< K>he; TB8 and the go=ernmentU ha=e been ta3ing out adsH holding meetingsH the;Gre on >A dail; telling the &o&ulation that e=er;thing is being done that should be doneD that e;er9one shoul, :ollow their lea,. >his is a lie. <he9Lre not in:ormin1 people o: the :ull scope o: this horror eitherDK E;erest sai,. >wo actions ha=e been held so <ar in 1ew ?rleans as a result o< the Summit. 9irst D two ,a9s a:ter the )ummitD about 2! acti=ists &rotested at the !nited Command in *ew =rleans. <he protesters presente, a /6 o::icial with their list o: ,eman,s. >he B8 o<<icial wouldnGt e=en identi<; himsel< to the &rotesters D E;erest sai,. <wo ,a9s a:ter thatD Emer1enc9 Committee acti;ists atten,e, one o: /6Ls =pen >ouses :or the publicD a1ain presente, their ,eman,sD an, ,eman,e, that /6 answer Nuestions. 2n the perio, shortl9 a:ter the Apr. 2% e plosion on the Deepwater >oriJon oil ri1D /6 representati;es woul, answer Nuestions :rom citiJens at their :orumsD E;erest sai,. >owe;erD /6 chan1e, the :ormat a:ter the9 were Kcruci:ie, b9 members o: the publicK an, now compan9 spo-espersons 1i;e short prepare, statements an, allow members o: the public to ;isit in:ormational tables. <he Emer1enc9 Committee ,eman,e, that /6 answer Nuestions publicl9D not one-ononeD an, /6 1a;e inD answerin1 Nuestions at least at that :orum :or about 4% minutesD E;erest sai,. K>he;Gre tr;ing to &re=ent collecti=e mass consciousness and actions. ItGs maLor 60 Wpublic relationsX an, damage control... <hese open house meetin1s are propa1an,a an, ,isin:ormation sessionsD that Le;er9thin1 is bein1 ,oneL an, LweLre so sorr9L. <he9Lre co;er-upsDK E;erest sai,. 2n a,,itionD acti=ists ha=e been holding &rotests across the countr; in cities not directl; im&acted b; the oil s&ill. =ne ,a9 o: national protestsD re:erre, to as KCru,e Awa-enin1KD was calle, on &un. 1$ b9 Co,e 6in- an, the )ierra Club. 2n AtlantaD a ,oJen protesters 1athere, at a mi,town /6 1as station. .an9 o: the protesters were 9oun1 people una::iliate, with an9 or1anisation. =thers were members o: the 0e;olutionar9 Communist 6art9D which also sent man9 representati;es to the )ummit. 2eGre here to &rotest B8 and the crimes the; continue to be &er&etrating against all li=ing things in the Gul< Coast region and the !.S.DK sai, Carol Cone9D an or1aniser o: the local protest. KItGs an assault on our countr; - en;ironmental an, economic terrorism.K 8eo&le in the !.S. Iwho ha=e an; 3ind o< heart :or wor-in1 people an, creatures that li;e in the oceanD all o: us are heartbro3en b; what has ha&&ened an, what is still happenin1KD Cone9 sai,. K2 thin- B8 has done a great disser=ice to humanit;. <his is a :ee-in1 ,isaster an, 2 thin- /6 nee,s to be hel, solel9 responsible :or the cleanup e::ortDK sai, =li;er >owin1tonD a protester an, trans1en,er acti;ist. K>his is an e)cellent e)am&le o< how cor&orations and go=ernment wor3 together to ma3e en=ironmental disasters li3e this &ossibleHI >owin1ton sai,. K<he 1o;ernment let them ha;e all this ,ere1ulation an, WwonLtX impose limits or caps.K

Scholars
1,( Econ Growth Good/Bad
>ransition# Des# ?il S&ill

/6 oil ma,e transition possible- e poses the ba, si,e o: economic base, 1o;ernment an, societ9 >ime and S&ace ,/. C/lo1 b9 pro: o: poli sci P U?AD This Time and this S+aceD ".$.1%I
5ichard has &ublished two though &ro=o3ing articles in res&onse to the oil s&ill in the Gul: o: .e icoD an, *A)A photos ,epictin1 the e::ects o: 1lobal warmin1 aroun, the 1lobe. <he :irst is title, =ur a,,iction to oil: <he cost in pictures an, the secon, is title, =il slic- aroun, .ississippi barrier islan,s. <he9 pro;i,e, much :oo, :or thou1ht an, e;o-e, ,istress about how little 1o;ernmentsD inclu,in1 our own Cana,ian 1o;ernmentD are ,oin1 to a,,ress the issues an, stop subsi,iJin1 the oil an, 1as in,ustr9. <he nee, to -icour a,,iction to :ossil :uels as soon as possible is be:ore us an, Tin our :acesQ so to spea-. But is it &ossible to energize &eo&le the world o=er to embrace the green energ; changes be madeH without e=o3ing the <ear that arises <rom accidents li3e the E))on Aaldez and now the B8 oil s&ill in the Gul: o: .e icoF Images are so &ower<ul and can become moti=ators <or change. +hen m9 husban, an, 2 ;iewe, the ima1es b9 A6 6hoto1rapher Charlie 0ie,el o: seabir,s cau1ht in the oil slic- on a beach on 4ouisiana's East Gran, <erre 2slan, we were heartsic-. $s B8 engineers began their e<<orts to ca& the underwater <low o< oilH we <eared our <ederal go=ernmentH which is in bed with big businessH might li<t the moratorium an, allow o:: shore oil ,rillin1 permits ,o e;en more tan-ers woul, be transportin1 oil up an, ,own the Cana,ian coastline an, increasin1 the ris- o: blow outs an, spills. /ut on .a9 21stD 2%1% 7e,eral En;ironment .inister &im 6rentice sai, that the moratorium on o::shore oil ,e;elopment in /.C. won't be li:te, an9 time soonD especiall9 in the wa-e o: the en;ironmental ,isaster un:ol,in1 in the Gul: o: .e ico /.C. o::shore ,rillin1 moratorium sta9s: 6rentice <he *ational +il,li:e 7e,eration has also release, a power:ul ;i,eo title, Cru,e Awa-enin1: /6 =il )pill3*+7 )pec 6)A. 2t was ma,e as an unsolicite, ,onation to the or1aniJation an, ,ri;es home the impact o: the /6 oil spill on wil,li:e in the Gul: o: .e ico b9 ,epictin1 a 9oun1 woman's per:ect worl, consume, b9 oil. Chica1o-base, &ane 7ulton photo1raphe, more than a ,oJen people ,renche, in an oil-li-e substance while stan,in1 on local beaches. T+hen 2 starte, to photo1raphD people woul, come up an, as- i: the9 coul, be in;ol;e,DQ she sai,. T>he &ictures Lust <lowed.Q 7ulton wor-e, temporaril9 as a clinical social wor-er in *ew =rleans a:ter >urricane 8atrina an, sa9s she can't :or1et the wrenchin1 photo1raphs o: oil-,renche, bir,s. Cru,e Awa-enin1 C1! photosI I belie=e it0s reasonable to e)&ect our go=ernments to ensure that industr; com&lies with the laws o< our land and to strengthen them. 2 belie;e we must insist re1ulator9 o;ersi1ht be put into place to protect the en;ironment an, must be strin1entl9 en:orce,. 2 belie;e maintaining oil as a energ; resource and rel;ing on oil based economies onl; ser=es to 3ee& some &eo&le rich at the cost o: the en;ironment an, the :uture abilit9 o: our beauti:ul planet to meet the nee,s o: its inhabitants. 2e must rid oursel=es o< the <ault; economic model re:erre, to as the three le11e, stool an, the 1o;ernance mo,el :oun,e, upon it. <he en;ironment is 1roun,s :or all an, without it we ha;e nothin1.

Scholars
1,* Econ Growth Good/Bad
>ransition# Des# 5ecession

>he recession &ro=ides the &er<ect time to transition C the world understands that growth led us to economic downturn 9letcher . C*ic-D 3-3%-$D 6rosperit9 without 1rowthQD <he worl,s resourcesD http:33www.stwr.or13economicsharin1-alternati;es3prosperit9-without-1rowth-transition-to-a-sustainable-econom9.htmlI >he &ursuit o< economic growth was one o< the root causes o< the <inancial crisisD an, go=ernments should res&ond to the recession b; abandoning growth at all costs in :a;our o: a more sustainableD 1reener s9stemD sa9s a report out to,a9. Be<ore this wee3Gs G20 summitH the Sustainable De=elo&ment CommissionH an in,epen,ent a,;iser to the 1o;ernmentD sa;s the de=elo&ed worldGs reliance on debt to <uel its relentless growth has created an unstable s;stem that has ma,e in,i;i,ualsD :amilies an, communities ;ulnerable to c9cles o: boom an, bust. <he bene:its o: 1rowth ha;e also been ,eli;ere, uneNuall9D with a :i:th o: the worl,Ls population earnin1 onl9 2R o: 1lobal income. Inreased consum&tion also has disastrous en=ironmental conseJuencesD inclu,in1 the ,e1ra,ation o: some (%R o: the worl,Ls ecos9stems. Accor,in1 to the )DCD the 1lobal econom9 is almost :i;e times lar1er than it was !% 9ears a1oD an, i: it continues to 1row at the same rate it woul, be #% times lar1er b9 the en, o: the centur9. K 9aced with the current recessionD it is un,erstan,able that man9 lea,ers at the G2% summit will be an ious to restore business as usualDK sai, 6ro:essor <im &ac-sonD economics commissioner at the )DC. K/ut 1o;ernments reall9 need to ta3e a longH hard loo3 at the e<<ects o< our single#minded de=otion to growth # e<<ects which include the recession itsel<. K2t ma9 seem inopportune to be Nuestionin1 1rowth while we are :ace, with ,ail9 news o: the e::ects o: recessionD but allegiance to growth is the most dominant <eature o< an economic and &olitical s;stem that has led us to the brin3 o< disaster. 1ot to stand bac3 now and Juestion what has ha&&ened would be to com&ound <ailure with <ailure : :ailure o: ;ision with :ailure o: responsibilit9. 7i1urin1 out how to ,eli;er prosperit9 without 1rowth is more essential now than e;er.K >he re&ort - calle, 6rosperit9 without 1rowthF - calls on go=ernments to de=elo& a sustainable economic s;stem that does not rel; on e=er#increasing consum&tion. <he )DCLs proposals to achie;e this inclu,e: impro;in1 :inancial an, :iscal pru,enceD as well as 1i;in1 priorit9 to in;estment in public assets an, in:rastructure o;er pri;ate a::luenceU allowin1 in,i;i,uals to :lourish b9 tac-lin1 ineNualit9D sharin1 a;ailable wor-D impro;in1 wor--li:e balance an, re;ersin1 the culture o: consumerismU an, establishin1 ecolo1ical limits on economic acti;it9. <he report conclu,es: K>he clearest message <rom the <inancial crisis is that our current model o< economic success is <undamentall; <lawed. 9or the ad=anced economies o< the western worldH &ros&erit; without growth is no longer a uto&ian dream. It is a <inancial and ecological necessit;.K

Scholars
1,+ Econ Growth Good/Bad
>ransition# Des# 5ecession

>he recession has caused the Mzero growthO idea to be &ushed into &olitics C the transition would be <easible now /ac3son . C<imD 6rosperit9 without 1rowthD )ustainable ,e;elopment commissionD 3-2(-$D http:33www.s,commission.or1.u-3pa1es3re,e:inin1-prosperit9.htmlI >he econom; is gearedD abo;e allD to economic growth. Economic &olic; in the current recession is all about returning to growth C but an economic crisis can be an o&&ortunit; <or some basic rethin3ing and restructuring. <wo obEecti;es other than 1rowth A sustainabilit; and wellbeing C ha=e mo=ed u& the &olitical and &olic;#ma3ing agenda in recent 9earsD challenging the o=erriding &riorit; traditionall; gi=en to economic growth. )DCLs K0e,e:inin1 6rosperit9K proEect has loo-e, into the connections an, con:licts between sustainabilit9D 1rowthD an, wellbein1. As part o: a two 9ear pro1ramme o: wor-D we commissione, thin-piecesD or1anise, seminarsD an, in;ite, :ee,bac-. <his proEect has now resulte, in a maEor )DC report: L6rosperit9 without GrowthF: the transition to a sustainable econom9L b9 6ro:essor <im &ac-sonD )DC's Economics Commissioner. 6rosperit9 without 1rowthF anal9ses the relationship between 1rowth an, the 1rowin1 en;ironmental crisis an, Lsocial recessionL. In the last Juarter o< a centur;H while the global econom; has doubledH the increased in resource consum&tion has degraded an estimated +0E o< the world0s ecos;stems. >he bene<its o< growth ha=e been distributed =er; uneJuall;H with a :i:th o: the worl,'s population sharin1 Eust 2R o: 1lobal income. E;en in ,e;elope, countriesD hu1e 1aps remain in wealth an, well-bein1 between rich an, poor. +hile mo,ernisin1 pro,uction an, re,ucin1 the impact o: certain 1oo,s an, ser;ices ha;e le, to 1reater resource e::icienc9 in recent ,eca,esD our report :in,s that current aspirations :or Gdecou&lingG en=ironmental im&acts <rom economic growth are unrealistic. <he report :in,s no e;i,ence as 9et o: ,ecouplin1 ta-in1 place on an9thin1 li-e the scale or spee, which woul, be reNuire, to a;oi, increasin1 en;ironmental ,e;astation. 6rosperit9 without 1rowthF proposes twel;e steps towar,s a sustainable econom9 an, ar1ues :or a re,e:inition o: Kprosperit9K in line with e;i,ence about what contributes to people's wellbein1. )DC inten,s to 1enerate ,iscussion an, ,ebate on the challen1es on the issues that 6rosperit9 without GrowthF raises. +e ha;e sent the report to the 6rime .inisterD 1o;ernment lea,ers in the ,e;ol;e, a,ministrationsD the Chancellor o: the E cheNuerD an, other 1o;ernment ministersD as well as business an, ci;il societ9 lea,ers.

Scholars
1,, Econ Growth Good/Bad
>ransition# Des# $2% Ine=itable

Growth isn0t ine=itableVanthro&olog; &ro=es. E=idence to the contrar; is &art o< the consumerist dream. @amilton 2 CCli;eD 6ro:essor o: 6ublic Ethics at the Australian *ational Uni;ersit9D Growth 7etishD p. 121D AD:
"-(-$I
)e;eral ar1uments are use, in support o: the belie: that 1rowth is ine;itable. <he9 are the ar1uments that will be use, to su11est that the Tpost-1rowth societ9' a,;ocate, in this boo- is utopian. <he economics te ts share at least one thin1 with popular wis,omS that human desire is insatiable an, people will alwa9s want to increase their incomes. <his is ob=iousl; a culturall;
s&eci<ic belie< that has been &resented as Xhuman nature0. $n;one with a 3nowledge o< &re#industrial societies 3nows thatH while 1ree, has a ;er9 lon1 histor9D the idea that human desire <or material goods is inherentl; limitless is contradicted b; anthro&ological <actsD inclu,in1 Cas ,iscusse, in Chapter #I some anthropolo1ical :acts o: the 21st centur9. /ut perhaps a more compellin1 e planation :or the :act that so man; &eo&le belie=e that economic growth is ine=itable is sim&l; that nature is so o<ten intoned D an, all authoritati;e people seem to belie;e it. So rarel; is the ine=itabilit; o< growth Juestioned that most &eo&le immediatel; become de<ensi=e when as3ed to <ollow the &osition through. .a9be the belie: in the ine=itabilit; o< growth is the counter&art o< the consumerist dream: it is con;enient to belie;e that 1rowth will ne;er en, because such a belie: opens up
the possibilit9 o: unrestraine, e pansion in our li:etimesD thus ;ali,atin1 our 1uilt9 acNuisiti;eness.
@istor; &ro=es that e)cess consum&tion and mar3et &rinci&les aren0t ine=itable. 4iller .. C+illD 6ro:essor o: 6hilosoph9 at ?ermont Uni;ersit9D T)ocial Chan1e an, >uman *atureDQ .onthl9
0e;iewD !%C$ID http:33www.monthl9re;iew.or132$$mill.htmD AD: "-(-$I
2t is not without reason that economics has come to be -nown as the ,ismal science. .ainstream economists since A,am )mith ha;e assume, that all human relations are ultimatel9 those o: the mar-etplaceD o: bu9in1 an, sellin1D o: control an, e ploitation o: the su::erin1D ;ulnerabilit9 an, ,esperation o: others. <he current ,ominance o: pri;ate propert9 relationsSwhere lan,D resources an, tools are e clusi;el9 controlle, b9 a small minorit9 o: in,i;i,uals :or their pri;ate perpetual rewar,Sis proEecte, bac-war, o;er the whole span o: human histor9. @owe=er use<ul this &roLection ma; be <or Lusti<;ing e)isting mar3et societ;H it is stri3ingl; &oor anthro&olog;H dubious histor;H and third#rate &s;cholog;. /ut it seems actual human histor9 has ha, a much ,i::erent bent. 9or our <irst <ew hundred thousand ;ears on this &lanetSaccor,in1 to current e;i,enceS
humans li=ed in small grou&s organized around mutuall; bene<icial social relationsH with resources held in common as social &ro&ert;. Social eJualit; and =oluntar; di=isions o< labor endured <or millennia as the basis <or human communal li<e. +ith essentiall9 social incenti;esD e;er9one who coul, contribute, to
the commonwealth :or the use o: all. 2n the lon1 sweep o: this histor9 the emer1ence o: ,ominant classesSchie:sD -in1sD aristocracies o: birth an, wealthSis a ;er9 recent e;entD perhaps no more than 1%D%%% 9ears a1oD or lessD ,epen,in1 on which culture is consi,ere,. 7rom time to timeD small human communities or1aniJe, in such communal wa9s continue to be L,isco;ere,DL communities that ha;e been spare, bein1 Kci;iliJe,K b9 conNuest at the han,s o: more Ka,;ance,K class societies.

Scholars
1,Econ Growth Good/Bad
>ransition# Des# $2% @uman 1ature

Economic decline and recession is not hard wired# contingent on human mindsets >amn; ,/+ C&ohnD e,itor o: 0ealClear.ar-etsD @ )r econ a,;isor 2 >.C. +ainwri1ht EconomicsD (alue
1:+ectationsD ".(.1%D http:33www.;aluee pectations.com3blo1s3paul--ru1mans-,epression-economics%"%(2%1% I E< All o: this ta-es on 1reat rele;ance 1i;en *ew Bor- <imes columnist 6aul 8ru1manLs recent assertion that we ma9 well be hea,e, :or a thir, Great Depression. >o belie=e :rugmanH de<lationar; monetar; &olic; and Ibelt#tighteningI among G20 go=ernments s&ea3s to Ia <ailure o< &olic;I that has us on a &ath toward economic decline. 0e1ar,in1 his ,e:lation su11estionD there he Juite sim&l; has things bac3wards. De<lation is alwa;s and e=er;where a monetar; &henomenon o< o=erl; strong currencies D an, with e;er9 maEor 1lobal currenc9 ,own ;ersus 1ol, an, most other commo,itiesD thereGs no de<lation to s&ea3 o<. As :or 1o;ernment spen,in1D heLs ri1ht that ta&&ed out go=ernmentsD perhaps chastene, b9 the ,e;elopments in GreeceD are mo=ing to reduce the =er; Igo=ernment stimulusI that has done nothing to re=i=e economies an;where itGs been tried. <hat stimulus has :aile, is Nuite lo1ical consi,erin1 we li;e in a worl, o: limite, capital. +hen 1o;ernments see- a ,isproportionate shareD thereLs less a;ailable :or pri;atesector businesses to access in or,er to 1row. <o put it ;er9 simpl9H go=ernment s&ending is a huge ta) on true economic &roducti=it;D so contrar9 to 8ru1manLs ,eepl9 hel, ;iewsD global economic re=i=al will be at least &artiall; authored b; the s&ending cuts he decries D not the increases that he en,orses. I< go=ernment austerit; were an econom; 3iller as :rugman su&&osesH 2est German; would ne=er ha=e reco=ered <rom 2orld 2ar IID an, &apan woul,nLt ha;e either. Consi,erin1 1rowth more broa,l9D it must be remembere, that KrecessionsK an, K,epressionsK are :alse notions. >han3s to our ra=enous desire <or the better things in li<eH we onl; 3now how to be &roducti=e and grow . 2n shortD thereGs no such thing as IeconomicI recessions or de&ressions. InsteadH our &roducti=it; &lummets when go=ernments get in the wa; o< our natural desire to &roduce. 5ecessions are alwa;s and e=er;where authored b; go=ernmentsR the;Gre ne=er economic.

Scholars
1,. Econ Growth Good/Bad
>ransition# 1o# Bac3lash

Elite bac3lash <ails C too much resistance :assiola .0 C&oelD 6ro:essor o: 6olitical )cienceD /roo-l9n Colle1eD 1$$%D <he Death o: 2n,ustrial Ci;iliJationD
p.1$4I E< .oreo;erD as a result o< disa&&ointmentD +il,ean tra1e,9D an, ;alue erosionD the &ostindustrial elite Cthe current members o: the bene:iciar9 class within the ,ominantD postin,ustrial social para,i1m an, structureI might come to a realization uniJue in histor;. <he eliteH &ostindustrial consciousness ma; be shoc3ed into change b; increasin1l9 cons&icuous limits to growth as well as b9 the &ro<oundl; challenging nature o< the limits#to#growth literature% the <utilit;H insecurit;H and disaster looming in our <oreseeable <uture Cunli-e the pre,icte, lon1-ran1e ,isaster o: our sun burnin1 up in se;eral billion 9earsID an, a <uture <illed with the &reoccu&ation o< see3ing to maintain their relati=e ad=antages and ceaselessl; <end o<< all o< the others see3ing to re&lace them. <he enEo9ment o: the elite0s &resent success seems short#li=edH unstableH and increasin1l9 inadeJuate relati=e to both the concern an, e<<ort e)&ended in attaining such MsuccessQ in the :irst placeD and the rising costs o< maintaining their celebrate, &osition on top.
1o elite bac3lash C re=olution comes <rom middle and u&&er classes :assiola .0 C&oelD 6ro:essor o: 6olitical )cienceD /roo-l9n Colle1eD 1$$%D <he Death o: 2n,ustrial Ci;iliJationD
p.1$4I E< =ne important conclusion o: the relati;e ,epri;ation theor9 is that &o=ert; &er se does not cause re=olution Si< it didH re;olution an, re=olutionar; acti=ities would be a constant set o< &henomena on the worl, scene orD at leastD :ar more :reNuent than the9 are. 7rom this re;olutionar9 perspecti;eD rather than the issue bein1 wh9 there is so much political ;iolence in the worl,D the pressin1 social issue shoul, be wh9 there is so little political ;iolence relati;e to the enormous e tent an, se;erit9 o: ,estitution in the worl,. Actuall9D it is the <ailure o< materiall; a<<luent societies to <ul<ill the rising e)&ectations o< materiall; richer &eo&leV not the abLect &oorVwhich leads to dissatis<action and re=olutionar; e<<orts . <his su11ests that one should e)&ect trans<ormational sentiments and action to come <rom a dissatis<ied middle and e;en u&&er class rather than :rom the more obEecti;el9 an, materiall9 de&ri=ed lower or underclass. +hether such a trans:ormational mi,,le or upper class ,oes emer1e remains to be seenD but the earl; signs o< industrial middle#class members su&&orting new social mo=ements <or change li3e the Greens and their alternati=e anti#industrial =alues such as &ostmaterialism or =oluntar; sim&licit; woul, seem to con<irm this theoretical antici&ation.#(

Scholars
1-0 Econ Growth Good/Bad
>ransition# 1o# Bac3lash# >rainer Indicts

>rainer0s anal;sis is wrong C economic growth will sol=e the &roblems he sa;s it creates /ac3son , CGerar,D /roo-es *ews Economic E,itor D TDe:en,in1 Economic GrowthD 4-1(-"D
http:33www.broo-esnews.com3%"1(%4trainer1.htmlI 4E I< an;one doubts <or a moment that 4ar)ism is a cult the; need loo3 no <urther than >ed >rainer. 9ull#blooded 4ar)ism has been an utterl; brutal <ailure that 3illed more than 100H000H000 &eo&le C<he /lac- /oo- o: Communism: CrimesD <errorD 0epressionD >ar;ar, Uni;ersit9 6ressD1$$$I 9et >rainer remains so blind to historical <acts that he &ro&oses a 4ar)ism solution to the non#&roblem o< economic growth and natural resources. Accor,in1 to the learne, .r <rainer: <he :un,amental cause o: the bi1 1lobal problems threatenin1 us now is simpl9 o;er-consumption. <he rate at which we in rich countries are usin1 up resources is 1rossl9 unsustainable. 2t's :ar be9on, le;els that can be -ept up :or lon1 or that coul, be sprea, to all people. C<he A1eD I 4et me :irst ,eal with <rainer's absur, notion that we are runnin1 out o: resources. <he :ollowin1 table clearl9 show that <rom a human &ers&ecti=e mineral resources are in<inite. )o much :or <rainer's easil9 re:ute, i,ea o: o;er-consumption. C2n economic theor9 o;erpro,uction woul, be ,e:ine, as capital consumptionI. >owe;erD what the abo;e table ,oes not re;eal is that resources are basicall9 a :unction o: technolo19. =il was a Eust a smell9 nuisanceD a liabilit9 that re,uce, the ;alue o: a :armer's lan,. 2n 1##(D when the /urma =il Compan9 o: /ritain :irst starte, to commerciall9 pump oilD it bou1ht thousan,s o: barrels o: oil :rom 24 :amilies at Benan19aun1. 2n En1lish it means Tthe cree- o: stin-in1 watersQ. C&ames Dale Da;i,son @ 4or, 0ees-.o11D /loo, in the )treetsD )i,1wic- @ &ac-son 4imite,D 1$##I. 7armin1 :amilies in 6enns9l;ania e perience, the same 1oo, :ortune more than 2! 9ears earlierD as ,i, Arab shei-s at a much later ,ate. <hisD an, man9 other e)am&les <rom economic histor;H demonstrates that genuine growth is actuall; a resource#
generating &rocess.
2t also nee,s to be stresse, that mineral an, oil reser;es are a :unction o: prices. As prices rise so ,o reser;es. <his is wh9 Ali Al-*aimiD )au,i .inister o: 6etroleum an, .ineral 0esourcesD was able to tell an international con:erence in April 2%%4 that his countries pro;en oil reser;es ha;e been 1reatl9 un,er-estimate, an, that the countr9 Thas 1.2 trillion barrels o: estimate, reser;eQ S :our times what is usuall9 estimate,. *o won,er that 6eter =,ell o: 0otter,am's Erasmus Uni;ersit9 was able to obser;e that since 1$"1D o;er 1D!%% billion barrels ha;e been a,,e, to reser;es. =;er the same 3!-9ear perio,D un,er #%% billion barrels were consume,. ?ne can argue <or a world which has been Xrunning into oil0 rather than Xout o< it0 . C<he
EconomistD 3% April 2%%!I. *ot onl9 are we runnin1 out o: mineral resources we are also :acin1 e;entual :amine because Tthe a;era1e per capita area o: pro,ucti;e lan, a;ailable on the planet is onl9 about 1.3 hectaresQ. <his is calle, Tcherr9 pic-in1Q. 4et's :or1et the TcherriesQ an, concentrate o: the sort o: :acts that le:ties hate. 2n 1$(% it too- about 1!%% million acres to pro,uce the worl,'s suppl9 o: 1rainU to,a9 it still onl9 ta-es about 1!%% million acres. +ithout this 134 per cent increase in pro,ucti;it9 we woul, now nee, about 3.! billion acres :or 1rain pro,uction.
>rainer is wrong C zero growth would not be sustainable or desirable /ac3son , CGerar,D /roo-es *ews Economic E,itorD TDe:en,in1 Economic GrowthD 4-1(-"D
http:33www.broo-esnews.com3%"1(%4trainer1.htmlI
/ut our Tra,icall9 1reen anarchist Q Chis own ,escriptionI is not 1oin1 to let a little thin1 li-e :acts an, economics challen1e his calci:ie, i,eolo19. <his is wh9 he ma-es the patentl9 absur, assertion that we nee, to cut resource use b9 T$% per centQ an, share T the remainin1 ener19 amon1 $ billion people.Q >his 4ar)ist cultist seems unaware o< the scienti<ic <act that there can ne=er be an energ; shortage. Ener19 is neither created nor destro;ed. 2hat is scarce is the ca&ital V material means o< &roduction that can be used to turn energ; into a use<ul wor3. $nd that is wh; we build &ower stations V or use, to. >e then ma,e the i,iotic claim that once we ha, ;irtuall9 abolishe, our use o: natural resources an, slashe, our consumption o: ener19 to a suici,al le;el we coul, all enEo9 a ... simpler Wan,X :ar more satis:9in1 wa9 o: li:e.. Wan, beX able to li;e well on two ,a9s wor- :or mone9 a wee-D without an9 threat o: unemplo9mentD or insecurit9 in ol, a1eD in a supporti;e communit9. <o the con;entional min, such claims are insanel9 impossible. ?nl; a certi<iable idiot could &ossible thin3 that one could reduce energ; use to the le=el o< a medie=al &easant and still enLo; a 21st centur; li<est;le. 0e;ealin1 his e tensi;e -nowle,1e o: economic histor9 an, his pro:oun, 1rasp o: economic
theor9 <rainer also claime, that an a;era1e rate o: 1rowth o: 3 per cent :rom now until 2%"% woul, mean that Ttotal worl, economic output each 9ear woul, be (% times as 1reat as it is nowQ then it is at present i: the economic e pectations o: the Tthen the $ billion peopleQ are to be satis:ie,. GeeY >ow terribleY >ow will our 1ran, chil,ren an, 1reat 1ran, chil,ren mana1e i: the9 are 1oin1 to be (% times richer than their 1ran,parentsF
>ransition# 1o# @uman 1ature

@uman :ind has <eels the; are su&&osed to <ul<ill destin;# ma3es growth ine=itable Qe; 1 CDr. .ichael G.D 2%%1D T<>E E56A*)2=*A0B <>E=0B =7 >U.A* DE?E4=6.E*<QD
http:33www.Je9.com3perspecti;e.htmD I

Scholars
>he >heor; in a *utshell<he E pansionar9 <heor9 &osits that the human s&ecies is a uniJue entit; that can and will &la; a s&ecial role in the greater cosmological <ramewor3. Accor,in1 to this theor9H o=er the eonsH human3ind will a&&l; its ingenuit; to o=ercoming the <orces o< entro&;. <he theor9 s9nthesiJes i,eas :rom astronom9D cosmolo19D anthropolo19D ph9sicsD sociolo19D an, other :iel,sD an, borrows :rom 8a-uD D9sonD DarwinD <eilhar, ,e Char,inD GribbinsD 0eesD .ora;ecD 8urJweilD the 0ussian Cosmism schoolD an, others. <his theoretic s9nthesis incorporates i,eas such as the Anthropic principleD comple it9 theor9D an, the /i1 /an1 theor9D an, re:lects recent ,isco;eries in ph9sicsD astronom9D an, astrobiolo19. ?ur current and <uture brea3throughs in biotechnolog;H aeros&aceH and com&uters will hasten human3indGs achie=ement o< its destin;. <his section will be e pan,e, o;er the comin1 wee-s an, months. <>E E56A*)2=*A0B ?2)2=* =7 >U.A* DE?E4=6.E*< @umanit; is on a Juest to im&ro=e the s&eciesH marshal the <orces o< natureH and resha&e the uni=erse. >hrough such processes as biogenesisH c;bergenesisH s&ecies coalescenceH and dominionizationH our s&ecies has &re&ared itsel< <or the achie=ement o< its ultimate destin;H =italization. <he Nuestion that still remains unanswere, isD o: courseD wh9F 2hat moti=ates human3ind to <e=erishl; &re&are itsel< <or what seems to be a grand missionS @uman-in,D a s&ecies residing on an in<initesimal island in a corner o< the uni=erseH dares to belie=e that the <ate and <uture o< the uni=erse lie in its hands. +hat act o: pri,e ,o we commitD what hubris ,o we e hibit to entertain the notion that we e;en ha;e a ,estin9D let alone such a lo:t9 oneF An, who are we to belie;e that we not onl; &ossess such a magni<icent destin;H but also are ca&able o< mastering the s3ills and 3nowledge necessar; to <ul<ill such a mandate.
Growth ine=itable# hardwired in human &s;che Qe; 1 CDr. .ichael G.D 2%%1D T<>E E56A*)2=*A0B <>E=0B =7 >U.A* DE?E4=6.E*<QD
http:33www.Je9.com3perspecti;e.htmD I E< >he emerging &icture o< earl; Earth is one o< a &lanet brimming with acti=it;H =irtuall; <orcing li<e into e)istence. As soon as the molecules ha, the chanceD the9 attempte, to establish the con,itions :or li:e. <his sel:-or1aniJation o: molecules ma,e li:eD an, the e;olution o: li:e :ormsD possible. It is the contention here that the same inclination to sel<#organizeH to intentionall; e=ol=e onesel< <rom the sim&le to the com&le)H e)ists on the biological le=el as well as the molecular. $nd the human s&ecies is the <inest e)am&le o< this &rocess. Al:re, 0ussell +allaceD a contemporar9 o: Darwin who concurrentl9 ,e;elope, a similar theor9 o: natural selectionD ,iscusse, a maEor m9ster9 in human e;olution. 2t seems that between >omo habilis an, >omo erectus the human brain un,er1oes a 1i1antic Eump in its siJe. <he earlier homini, has a brain onl9 sli1htl9 lar1er than that o: an ape. >omo erectusD which e iste, :or a million 9ears startin1 aroun, 1.! million 9ears a1oD has a corte as lar1e as ours. 2allace contends that the human brain was o=erdesigned <or its &rimiti=e uses and thus could not ha=e been a &roduction o< natural selection. @e said that natural selection could onl; ha=e endowed sa=age man with a brain a <ew degrees su&erior to that o< an a&eH whereas he actuall; &ossesses one =er; little in<erior to that o< a &hiloso&her. 0obert =rensteinD a biolo1ist specialiJin1 in brain researchD is similarl; curious about wh; @omo erectus &ossessed a brain that he ostensibl; had little use <or. ?ur brain e)&anded to a size <or which there was little <unctional use at the time. Accor,in1 to =rensteinD Cin his boo- <he E;olution o: ConsciousnessF @omo erectusG brain was com&le) enough to in=ent a micro&rocessorH e=en though all that was needed at the time was a brain that could <igure out how to hammer out the <irst <ew stone tools. K+h9 be able to :l9 to the moon when no one has e;en un,erstoo, how to ma-e ironFKD =renstein as-s.

Scholars
>ransition# 1o# Ine=itable

Growth is ine=itableV&olicies to the contrar; are im&ossible long#term. Gibson#Graham + C&8D 7eminist Economic Geo1raphers at the Australian *ational Uni;ersit9D <he En, o:
Capitalism CAs +e 8new 2tIDQ .arch 24D 2%%(D AD: "-(-$I <hou1h ,i;orce, :rom its association with an e;olutionar9 narrati;e o: capitalism's ine;itable brea-,own an, supersessionD accumulation brin1s its other meanin1s to the stories o: 7or,ism an, post-7or,ismD which its status as a central process an, s9stemic imperati;e cannot help but rein:orce. .ost prominentl9 here 2 am thin-in1 o: the 1rowth imperati;e that is tra,itionall9 associate, with capitalist economies. I< the regulationists ha=e dis&ensed with the ine=itabilit; o< ca&italist brea3downH the; ha=e no dis&ensed with the ine=itabilit; o< growth. Growth remains an unJuestioned MlawO o< ca&italist de=elo&mentH with the im&lication <or &rogressi=e acti=ists that &olitics must at least accommodate and at most <oster ca&italist e)&ansion Cthe alternati;e to the Tnecessar9Q process o: 1rowth bein1 a crisis o: accumulationI.
$lternati=es to ca&italist de=elo&ment are im&ossibleVthe door has been closed. Isbister 1 C&ohnD 6ro:essor o: Economics at the Uni;ersit9 o: Cali:ornia at )anta CruJD Capitalism an, &usticeD p.
4(D AD: "-(-$I Some in the ca&italist world tr; to retain or re#create the best &arts o< &reca&italism . )ome Amish an, .ennonite communities are base, on precapitalist ;aluesD as are some other :aith-base, 1roups . >he 1.+0s and 1.,0s saw the creation o< secular alternati=e rural communesH communities whose members tried to eliminate all mar3s o< distinction between themH to be sel<#su<<icientH and to li=e sim&l;. <he communes ha, some successesD but most e=entuall; colla&sed. Communities such as these ha;e attempte, to embo,9 precapitalist ;aluesD but none has succeeded in cutting itsel< o<< <rom ca&italist in<luences% <rom the mar3etD :rom the me,iaD :rom the le1al s9stemD an, :rom other in:luences o: the mo,ern worl,. +hile we can learn :rom our antece,ent societiesD we cannot return to them. >he door has been closed.

Scholars
1-' Econ Growth Good/Bad
>ransition# 1o# Ine=itable# Brain Chem

Growth and consum&tion is ine=itable in the long#runVit is rooted in our brain chemistr;. $llenb; , C/ra,D 6ro:essor o: Ci;il an, En;ironmental En1ineerin1 at AriJona )tate Uni;ersit9D T<he /ene:its o:
=ur >ar,wire, *ee, to ConsumeDQ Green/iJ.comD .arch "D 2%%"D http:33www.1reenbiJ.com3blo132%%"3%33%#3thebene:its-our-har,wire,-nee,-consumeD AD: "-(-$I /4 <hat humans are inclined to ma3e choices that o<<er more &leasure than &ain comes as no surpriseD but a looat how mar-etin1 -- whether o: consumer 1oo,s or en;ironmental causes -- o::ers intri1uin1 i,eas on how to create chan1eD /ra, Allenb9 writes. <he issue o: consumption is perhaps one o: the most ;e e, in the en;ironmental an, sustainabilit9 ,iscoursesD especiall9 when contrastin1 the Unite, )tatesD which ten,s towar,s more o: a :ree mar-etD :ree consumer choice philosoph9D with the European Union. )ome interestin1 recent wor- in,icates that it ma9 also be much more comple than we 1enerall9 realiJe. <a-e the recent worb9 Geor1e 4owenstein at Carne1ie-.ellon Uni;ersit9D /rian 8nutson o: )tan:or,D an, DraJen 6relec o: .2<. 2n or,er to better un,erstan, the brain chemistr9 un,erl9in1 consumptionD the9 presente, pro,uct choicesD then pa9ment choicesD to ;olunteers while scannin1 their brains with :unctional ma1netic resonance ima1in1. <he9 :oun, that the nucleus accumbensH which is
in=ol=ed in &rocessing reward stimuli C:oo,D recreational ,ru1sI was acti=ated b; &resentation o< desirable &roducts such as chocolatesD while the insular corte D lin-e, to e pectations o: painD was acti;ate, b9 price in:ormation. $<ter both &roduct and &rice were &resentedH the &re<rontal corte)H an area associated with rational calculationH engaged as well. <his not onl9 in,icate, that mo,ern beha;ior CKrationalK consumption choicesI are pi119bac-in1 on neural circuits e;ol;e, :or much ,i::erent circumstances Cnot a surpriseID but lea,s to some interestin1 i: speculati;e possibilities. A :airl9 strai1ht:orwar, interpretation o: these ,ata is the su11estion thatD at the neural le=elH consum&tion is a<<ectedD perhaps si1ni:icantl9D b; a weighing o< immediate &leasure =ersus immediate &ainH rather than rational calculationD which onl9 comes later. <his ma9 not soun, re;olutionar9D especiall9 to mar-etin1 1urusD but it nonetheless
has some substantial implications. <o be1in withD it emphasiJes the importance o: mar-etin1 an, presentation in consumption: i: the bene:its o: a pro,uct can be ma,e e plicit an, attracti;e :rom the be1innin1D the ,ecision to purchase can be encoura1e, be:ore the Krational wei1hin1K process is e;en en1a1e,. <his mi1ht ar1ue a1ainst the tra,itional en;ironmental proEect o: re,ucin1 consumption b9 1eneratin1 lar1e amounts o: en;ironmental in:ormation to be appen,e, to particular pro,ucts: i: the ?# G< or lar1e )U? is initiall9 appealin1D in:ormation on :uel consumption ma9 be onl9 mar1inall9 rele;ant because it enters the co1niti;e processes a:ter the purchasin1 ,ecision is essentiall9 ma,e. Conceptuall9D in other wor,sD the en=ironmental a&&roach to reducing
consum&tion through &roduct s&eci<ic in<ormation im&licitl; acce&ts Ithe rational consumerI model o< human beha=ior: pro;i,e more in:ormation on social an, en;ironmental costsD an, consumersD rationall9 balancin1 their
optionsD will choose the more TrationalQ outcome -- that isD en;ironmental pre:erabilit9 Crememberin1 that consumers ma9 not share the ;alues prioritiJation o: en;ironmentalistsI. <his appears to be an o;ersimplisticD i: not incorrectD mo,el o: consumer co1nition. >owe;erD while this research mi1ht ,iscoura1e pro,uct-b9-pro,uct in:ormation schemesD it mi1ht support 1eneral anti-consumption campai1ns. A:ter allD such campai1ns when success:ul ma-e the act o: consumption itsel: more ne1ati;e emotionall9D an, thus enhance the e pectations o: pain associate, with an9 consumption Cthe ,ownsi,es o: consistentl9 ne1ati;e messa1es :rom en;ironmentalists are well -nownD howe;erD an, mi1ht 1enerate consumer bac-lash that outwei1hs such consumption re,uction e::ects o;er timeI. AnotherD perhaps more ,i::icultD implication is the possibilit9 that use o: cre,itD which on balance re,uces the imme,iate TpainQ o: a purchase because nothin1 material is apparentl9 1i;en up in e chan1eD creates a conte t within which consumers are inherentl9 wei1hte, towar,s consumption Cthe researchers ha;e not 9et teste, this h9pothesisI. <he 1rowth an, ,i::erentiation o: cre,it mechanismsD an, the ,ematerialiJation o: mone9D are lon1-term tren,s in ,e;elope, economiesD an, a maEor mechanism supportin1 the continue, 1rowth in comple it9 o: :inancial an, economic structures. <husD it becomes &roblematic <or anti#consum&tion acti=ists i< the
inherent d;namics and structure o< economic s;stems as the; e=ol=e shi<ts the balance between consum&tion and &ain towards consum&tion. <hat consumption has ,eep emotional ,imensionsD an, that access to cre,it encoura1es economic 1rowthD an, alon1 with it consumptionD are not re;olutionar9 :in,in1s. /ut that consumption ,ecisions en1a1e particular brain pathwa9s in wa9s that a::ect the e::ecti;eness o: en;ironmental campai1ns an, proEects is both interestin1 an, importantD e;en i: at this point it ma9 be ,i::icult to be sure Nuite how these new ,isco;eries cut. At the leastD howe;erD the ,emonstration that e=en a&&arentl; straight<orward decisions areH in <actH grounded in &re#rational cogniti=e in<ormation &rocessing suggests that en=ironmental and sustainabilit; acti=ists need to become more so&histicated in the wa; the; thin3 aboutD an, see- to sociall9 en1ineerD consum&tion decisions. 7or social en1ineerin1 is a ,ouble-e,1e, swor,D an, especiall9 in areas li-e consumptionD increasin1l9 un,erstoo, as in;ol;in1 comple an, :un,amental beha;iorsD such e::orts can reboun, a1ainst those who see- to impose such beha;ior chan1eD re1ar,less o: their 1oo, intentions.

Scholars
1-( Econ Growth Good/Bad
>ransition# 1o# 4indset

>he right is well armed and waiting to ta3e o=er C economic colla&se won0t lead to DeDe=elo&mentH but it will cause the rise o< new <ascist states .artin 6ewis pro:essor in the )chool o: the En;ironment an, the Center :or 2nternational )tu,ies at Du-e Uni;ersit9. Green DelusionsD 1$.2 p1"%-1"1
+hile an e plosi;e socioeconomic crisis in the near term is har,l9 li-el9 the possibilit9 certainl9 cannot be ,ismisse,. Capitalism is an inherentl9 unstable economic s9stemD an, perio,ic crises o: some ma1intu,e are ine;itable. An outbrea- o: Ein1oistic economic nationalism throu1hout the worl,D moreo;erD coul, Nuic-l9 result in ;irtual economic colla&se. Un,er such circumstances we could in,ee, enter an e&och o< re=olutionar; social turmoil. Bet 2 belie;e that there are good reasons to belie=e that the =ictors in such a struggle would be radicals not o< the le<t but rather o< the right. >he e)treme le<tD :or all its intellectual stren1thD notabl9 lac3s the 3ind o< &ower necessar; to emerge =ictorious <rom a real re=olution. $ <ew old street radicals ma; still retain their militant ethosH but toda;0s college &ro<essors and their graduate studentsD the core mar ist contin1entD would be ine<<ecti=e. >he radical rightD on the other han,D would &resent a ;er9 real threat. 6opulist right#wing paramilitar9 grou&s are well armed and well trainedD while establishment-min,e, <ascists &robabl; ha=e lin3s with the $merican militar; D wherein lies the 1reatest concentration o: ,estructi;e power this planet -nows. Should a crisis stri3e so sa=agel; as to s&linter the $merican center an, its political institutionsD we could well e)&erience a re=olutionar; mo=ement similar to that o< German; in the 1.'0.
>he; won0t e=er be able to achie=e their mindset shi<tH and e=en i< the; do concrete &olicies are 3e; .artin 6ewis pro:essor in the )chool o: the En;ironment an, the Center :or 2nternational )tu,ies at Du-e Uni;ersit9. Green DelusionsD 1$.2 p11-12
>ere 2 will ar1ue that eco#radical &olitical strateg;D i: one ma9 call it thatD is consummatel9 sel<#de<eating. <he theoretical an, empirical reEection o: 1reen ra,icalism is thus bolstere, b9 a series o: purel9 pra1matic obEections. .an9 eco-radicals ho&e that a massi=e ideological cam&aign can trans<orm &o&ular &erce&tionsD leading both to a :un,amental change in li<est;les and to large#scale social reconstruction. Such a =iew is highl; credulous. >he notion that continue, intellectual hectoring will e;entuall9 result in a mass con=ersion to en=ironmental monasticism C0osJa- 1$"$:2#$ISmar-e, b9 ;ows o: po;ert9 an, nonprocreationSis di<<icult to acce&t. +hile ra,ical ;iews ha;e come to ,ominate man9 en;ironmental circlesD their e::ect on the populace at lar1e has been minimal. Despite the 1reenin1 o: European politics that recentl9 1a;e stalwarts consi,erable hopeD the more recent green &lunge suggests that e=en the Euro&ean electorate lac3s commitment to en=ironmental radicalism. In the !nite, States se=eral decades o< &reaching the same ecoradical gos&el ha=e had little appreciable e<<ectU the &ublic remainsD as be:oreH wedded to consumer culture and creature com<orts. >he stubborn ho&e that nonetheless continues to in:orm 1reen e tremism stems :rom a per;asi;e philosophical error in ra,ical en;ironmentalism. As Da;i, 6epper C1$#$I showsD most eco-ra,ical thou1ht is mire, in i,ealism: in this case the belie: that the roots o: the ecolo1ical crisis lie ultimatel9 in i,eas about nature an, humanit9 As Dobson C1$$%:3"I puts it: TCentral to the theoretical canon o: Green politics is the belie: that our socialD politicalD an, economic problems are substantiall9 cause, b9 our intellectual relationship with the worl,Q Csee also .ilbrath 1$#$:33#I. 2: onl9 such i,eas woul, chan1eD man9 a;erD all woul, be well. )uch a belie: has ins&ired the writing o: eloNuent Eeremia,sU it is less conduci=e to designing concrete strategies <or e<<ecti=e social and economic change . 2t is certainl9 not m9 belie: that i,eas are insi1ni:icant or that attemptin1 to chan1e others' opinions is a :utile en,ea;or. 2: that were true 2 woul, har,l9 :eel compelle, to write a polemic wor- o: this -in,. /ut 2 am also con;ince, that changing ideas alone is insu<<icient. 2ides&read ideological con=ersion D e;en i: it were to occurD would hardl; be adeJuate <or genuine social trans<ormation. S&eci<ic &olicies must still be <ormulatedH and s&eci<ic &olitical &lans must be de=ised i: those policies are e;er to be realiJe,.

Scholars
1-* Econ Growth Good/Bad
>ransition# 1o# $2% 5ecession

1o transition# latest recession rein<orces economic growth with no worries# bailouts @arrison 10 CE,war,D Credit !rite downs$ mar 1%D http:33www.cre,itwrite,owns.com32%1%3%33the-min,set-willnot-chan1e-a-,epressionar9-relapse-ma9-be-comin1.html I E< $s <or 7ie0s =iews on the !.S.H optimisticall9D he entitles his latest &iece M$ Change o< 4indsetHO as i< to sa; the bailout mentalit; has come to an end%+e are hearin1 the :irst maEor ,eparture :rom the mainstream consensusU U) 6resi,ent /arac- =bama has Eust announce, a proposal to limit proprietar9 tra,in1 on +all )treet. <his is his :irst maEor step to a,,ress the root cause o: the crisis. >he crisis ha&&ened because <inancial &ro<essionals had incenti=es to bet other &eo&le0s mone; in a game the; could not lose . +ith so man9 1ettin1 in on the actD the liNui,it9 the9 threw into the tra,es ma,e them e::ecti;eD turnin1 ban-ers into heroesD but onl9 :or a while. >he crisis showed that their beha=ior was indeed rational: while the losses to sharehol,ers an, ta pa9ers surpasse, all the accountin1 pro:its that +all )treet reporte, ,urin1 the bubbleD those who made the trades are still richH because the; &aid themsel=es bonuses in cashH not deri=ati=es. ?bama has not been well#ad=ised. @is so#called accom&lishment V stabilizing the <inancial s;stem V comes <rom throwing trillions o< ta)&a;ers0 dollars at <inancial <irms . >e has beha;e, li-e a +all )treet tra,er: spen,in1 other people's mone9 with no thou1ht o: conseNuences. An9one can ,o that. >ope:ull9 =bama has :un,amentall9 chan1e, his approach. 5e<ormH not stimulusH is the solution. =nl9 b9 limitin1 :inancial speculation can the :oun,ations be lai, :or a health9 reco;er9D an, to pre;ent another crisis. I am glad he is ho&e<ul that ?bama sees the <oll; in more bailouts an, malin;estment. 6erhaps he is on to somethin1. >owe;erD I do not e)&ect the mindset to change whatsoe=er. Ban3 &ro<its are bac3 at record le=els and the worst o< the &anic is now o=er. Dou don0t get a change in mindset in that en=ironment. 4ore li3el;H ;ou get a =ictor; la&.

Scholars
1-+ Econ Growth Good/Bad
>ransition# 1o# $>% B8

1ot e=en the oil s&ill changes mindset# the onl; wa; to do so would be to economicall; ta) oil to show the en=ironment is im&ortant PretagF 5ogers ,/2 CDianeD sta:: writer P Christian science monitorD The Christian Science 'onitor$
http:33www.csmonitor.com3.one93Economist-.om32%1%3%(%23/6-oil-spill-rethin-in1-how-we-cra:ten;ironmental-polic9"3231% I E<
<he ri1ht polic9 nee,s to in,ee, sprea, the bur,en o: the costs o: cleanin1 up the oil spill to all participants in the oil mar-etplaceD inclu,in1 those o: us who innocentl9 Eust :ill up our tan-s with gasoline. ?nl; when the e)tra social costs o< the en=ironmental ris3s associated with both <ossil <uel &roduction Ce.1.D ris- o: o::shore ,rillin1 mishapsI and <ossil <uel consum&tion Ce.1.D 1lobal warmin1D pollutionF are incor&orated into the &rices all o< us <ace in the <ossil <uel mar3ets we &artici&ate inH will we be led to ma3e the correct D or at least betterD decisions <rom a social wel<are stand&ointH not Lust <rom our own sel<ish stand&oints . <hese better ,ecisions inclu,e the oil companies usin1 sa:er pro,uction metho,s Cwhich li-el9 means pro,ucin1 less o::shoreID an, consumers bu9in1 less 1asoline. /ut what I neglected
to consider is that a ta) or charge on <ossil <uels in general would not reall; get at &utting a &rice on the e)tra social costs associated with the ris3; o<<shore drilling methods . A carbon ta woul, be able to price the
e ternal costs associate, with 1lobal warmin1 Ca cost that Nuite appropriatel9 shoul, be ,esi1ne, to hit both consumers an, pro,ucersID but woul, not put an e tra mar1inal cost on ris-ier ;ersus sa:er wa9s o: pro,ucin1 Cor more speci:icall9D e tractin1I oil. >hat
additional social cost needs to be im&osed on the &roducers ma3ing the decisions about how to &roduce the oilH or else the incenti=es to &roduce using sa<er methods Cespeciall9 i: the9 are more e pensi;e than ,an1erous metho,sI won0t be there.
B8 oil doesn0t sol=e# cor&orations will co#o&t <or economic &ro<its 5ogers ,/2 CDianeD sta:: writer P Christian science monitorD The Christian Science 'onitor$
http:33www.csmonitor.com3.one93Economist-.om32%1%3%(%23/6-oil-spill-rethin-in1-how-we-cra:ten;ironmental-polic9"3231% I E< )oD 2 want to ma-e an a,,en,um to the post :rom almost a month a1o. 2 stic3 b; m; &osition that this is a =er; &ublic &roblem in need o< a =er; &ublic P&olic; not Eust relationsI solution. /ut im&osing higher &rices on :ossil :uels in 1eneralD to correct :or the 1lobal-warmin1-t9pe en;ironmental costs H is not enough. <o 1et this ri1htD we need to somehow &rice the e)&ected marginal e)ternal costs o: o::shore oil pro,uction as wellD i: we ,etermine that that pro,uction metho, in particular in,ee, imposes social costs that e cee, pri;ate costs. >he lum&#sum &uniti=e <ine on B8 im&osed a<ter the incident Cas well as what has Eust happene, to /6 stoc- pricesD picture, abo;eI ma; ha=e a deterrent e<<ect on other oil com&anies who engage in o<<shore drillingH but it's not an o::shore ,rillin1 polic9. 2: the 1o;ernment's response is Eust an e -post :ine on /6 aloneD 1oin1 :orwar,D oil com&anies in general will still ha=e the incenti=e to &roduce at least e)&ected &ri=ate cost regardless o< &otential e)ternal social costs associate, with potential Cbut still low-probabilit9I
acci,ents.

Scholars
1-, Econ Growth Good/Bad
>ransition# 1o# $>% B8

B8 oil s&ill onl; shows how economic growth destro;s caring <or the en=ironment# new lin3 to im&act 5ogers ,/2 CDianeD sta:: writer P Christian science monitorD The Christian Science 'onitor$
http:33www.csmonitor.com3.one93Economist-.om32%1%3%(%23/6-oil-spill-rethin-in1-how-we-cra:ten;ironmental-polic9"3231% I E< 2t seems to me that in our negligence regarding &ublic &olic; toward the oil and gas industr;H we ha=e greatl; under&riced the cost o< <ossil <uels pro,uce, :rom o::shore ,rillin1 metho,s <or two reasons: CiI :or the &otential social costs associated with the global warming caused b; the consum&tion and use o< <ossil <uels in generalH and CiiI :or the e)&ected en=ironmental costs associated with o<<shore oil and gas &roduction in &articular. <he :irst problem woul, be sol;e, b9 turnin1 to a carbon ta or char1eD but the secon, reNuires another
ta or :ee that woul, be char1e, to an9 oil compan9 who en1a1es in o::shore ,rillin1 base, perhaps on the Nuantit9 o: oil the9 pro,uce o::shore or wells ,rille, or whate;er is best correlate, with the impose, social ris-s. >he re=enue <rom these latter <ees/ta)es could go into some sort o< trust <und designed to co=er the PlargeF costs o< cleaning u& Clowprobabilit9I acci,ents. <his soun,s a lot li-e an insurance polic9D ,oesn't itF /ut it's li-e a social insurance pro1ramD because these are social costs an, a ;er9 public problem.

Scholars
1-Econ Growth Good/Bad
De#De= 9ails C @;&ergrowth 1/1

Decreased growth leads to ra&id and unrestrained rebounds su&ercharging their reasons wh; growth is bad Bronson + PBobH Bronson Ca&ital 4ar3ets 5esearchH 66CH htt&%//www.<inancialsense.com/editorials/bronson/200+/0*1,.htmlF
<he reasons behin, the in;estor ps9cholo19 o: an Techo-maniaQ are the stu:: o: the :iel, o: beha;ioral :inance. Quite simpl9D in;estors ha;en't ha, enou1h o: the eas9 mone9 ma,e in the ori1inal maniaD e;en thou1h muchD i: not allD o: that mone9 was lost in the :irst ,ownle1 CAI o: the )uperc9cle /ear .ar-et. <he ea1erness :or Nuic- riches is har, to sNuelchD an, so the9 rush in to bu9 all o;er a1ainD creatin1 a secon,D or TechoQ bubble. <he9 tell themsel;es the9';e Tlearne, a lessonQ an, Twon't ma-e the same mista-e twiceQ b9 hol,in1 on to their hot stoc-s too lon1. <he9 thin- the9'll sell in time to a;oi, the ne t mar-et collapseD but empirical e;i,ence shows the9 ,on't. 2n :actD their e;entual Ther,in1DQ when the ,ecline is well un,erwa9 an, the9 :inall9 T1et itQ an, ,eci,e to sell en masseD usuall9 causes a more se;ere secon, ,ownle1 than the :irst. E periments con,ucte, b9 Geor1e .ason Uni;ersit9 pro:essor ?ernon )mithD who share, in the 2%%2 *obel 6riJe :or economicsD con:irme, this beha;ior. 6articipants tra,e, a ,i;i,en,-pa9in1 Tstoc-Q with a ;er9 clear :un,amental ;alue. A bubble in;ariabl9 :ormsD then bursts. 2: the e periment is repeate, with the same peopleD a bubble :orms a1ain. <he secon, timeD thou1hD participants thin- the9 will be able to sell their stocbe:ore trouble stri-es. <he9 then e press surprise thatD in :actD the9 weren't able to 1et out be:ore the secon, collapseD which lea,s to their total ,is,ain :or in;estin1 in stoc-s. <his collecti;e in;estor ,isillusionment is both a necessar9 an, su::icient con,ition :or brin1in1 about the sellin1 that results in the e treme :un,amental un,er;aluation that :inall9 en,s the )uperc9cle /ear .ar-et 6erio,. +e ha;e seen e actl9 this beha;ior at wor- since the stoc- mar-et be1an its reboun, :rom the =ctober 2%%2 an, .arch 2%%3 lows. +e e pect that the recent Techo-maniaQ will en, li-e the ori1inal mania an, li-e the 1oo, pro:essor's e periment: ba,l9 :or the in;estors speculatin1 once a1ain on hi1hl9 o;er;alue, stoc- an, belie;in1 the9're now a better-than-a;era1e in;estor.
Dislocations ma3e the boom#bust c;cle go craz;H allowing us to access all o< their im&acts 9e3ete ' P$lanH 4emorial ! o< 1ew<oundlandH 1o= 'H htt&%//www.shoema3erconsulting.com/Goldis9reedom/$rchi=es/goldsstabilit;.htmF
<he worl, econom9 has been in a ,e:lationar9 mo,e since 1$#%D witness the ,ishoar,in1 o: mar-etable commo,ities that ha, been hoar,e, ,urin1 the pre-1$#% in:lationar9 perio, Ce.1.D cru,e oilD 1rainsD metalsD lumberD etc.I. 2n this conte t Khoar,in1K shoul, be un,erstoo, in its broa,est sense to inclu,e the creation o: e cess capacit9 to pro,uce a1ricultural an, in,ustrial 1oo,s :or consumption. 4i-ewiseD K,ishoar,in1K also inclu,es the ,ismantlin1 o: e cess capacit9 causin1 what 2 call TEob-,rainQ or the e port o: American Eobs to Asia. <he ,estabiliJation o: the interest-rate structure is the sin1le 1reatest economic ,islocation that has wrea-e, the 1reatest ha;oc on the worl,D an, was cause, b9 1o;ernment tamperin1 with the ri1ht to own 1ol,. Unless this ri1ht is car;e, in the stone o: the ConstitutionD more ,ama1e will :ollow as the rate o: interest can plun1e to Jero Ch9per-,e:lationID or it can ta-e a :li1ht to in:init9 Ch9per-in:lationID an, it is impossible to pre,ict which shoul, come :irst.

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Gonzaga Debate Institute 2010

1 Econ Growth Good/Bad

Economic Growth Core

!"% $sian# !&......................................................................................................................................................12

!"% $sian# Down.................................................................................................................................................1'

!"% $sian# Down.................................................................................................................................................1(

!"% China# !& .................................................................................................................................................... 1,

!"% China# Down................................................................................................................................................ 1.

!"% Euro&e# !&...................................................................................................................................................22

!"% Euro&e# !& ..................................................................................................................................................2'

!"% /a&an0s# !&.................................................................................................................................................. 2+

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2010

2 Econ Growth Good/Bad

UQ: U) Econ- Down...........................................................................................................................................................................2$

!"% !S Econ# Down..........................................................................................................................................2.

!"% !S Econ# Double Di& 1ow..........................................................................................................................'0

!"% !S Econ# Down............................................................................................................................................'1

!"% !S Econ #Down............................................................................................................................................'2

!"% !S Econ# Down............................................................................................................................................''

!"% !S Econ# Down............................................................................................................................................'(

!"% !S Econ# !&.................................................................................................................................................'*

!"% !S Econ# !&.................................................................................................................................................'+

!"% !S Econ# !&.................................................................................................................................................',

!"% 2orld Econ# Down......................................................................................................................................(1

!"% 2orld Econ# Down......................................................................................................................................(2

!"% 2orld Econ# Down# Stoc3 4ar3et............................................................................................................ ('

!"% 2orld Econ# !&...........................................................................................................................................((

Brin3# Double Di& 5ecession..............................................................................................................................(,

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2010

' Econ Growth Good/Bad

/rin-- Double Dip *ot Comin1............................................................................................................................................................4"

Brin3# Double Di& 1ot Coming..........................................................................................................................(,

I/6# 27 Di& 8ossible.............................................................................................................................................*1

I/6# Econ Colla&se# 6ightning 9ast....................................................................................................................*2

I/6# 8erce&tion :e;..............................................................................................................................................*'

I/6% !S 5esilient# Em&iric ..................................................................................................................................*(

I/6% !S 5esilient# Em&iric ..................................................................................................................................**

I/6% !S 5esilient# 8eo&le..................................................................................................................................... *+

I/6% !S 5esilient# ./11......................................................................................................................................... *,

I/6% !S 1ot 5esilient# 9ed S&ending 6ac3ing...................................................................................................*.

I/6% !S 1ot 5esilient#Generic.............................................................................................................................+0

I/6% !S :e; to 2orld.......................................................................................................................................... +1

Im&acts# Econ Bad# E)tinction...........................................................................................................................+*

Im&acts# Econ Bad# E)tinction...........................................................................................................................++

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2010

( Econ Growth Good/Bad

Im&acts# Econ Bad# 2ar.....................................................................................................................................+,

Im&acts# Econ Bad# 2ar# Goldstein..................................................................................................................+.

Im&acts# Econ Bad# 2ar# Goldstein..................................................................................................................,0

Im&acts# Econ Bad# 2ar# Goldstein# 6ong 2a=e >heor; De<ense................................................................,1

Im&acts# Econ Bad# 2ar# Goldstein# 6ong 2a=e >heor; De<ense................................................................,2

Im&acts# Econ Bad# 2ar# Goldstein# 6ong >heor; De<ense..........................................................................,'

Im&acts# Econ Bad# $2% 2ar# Econ good......................................................................................................... ,(

Im&acts# Econ Bad# 2ar# $2% Interde&endence ..............................................................................................,*

Im&acts# Econ Bad# $2% S&ace........................................................................................................................... ,+

Ima&cts# Econ Bad# S&ace ..................................................................................................................................,,

Im&acts# Econ Bad# $2% Democrac;# 9reidman Indicts .................................................................................,.

Im&acts# Econ bad# $2% Democrac;# 9riedman Indicts Cont0d..................................................................... -0

Im&acts# Econ Bad# En=ironment .....................................................................................................................-1

Im&acts# Econ Bad# En=ironment......................................................................................................................-2

Im&acts# Econ Bad# En=ironment......................................................................................................................-2

Im&acts# Econ Bad# Climate Change.................................................................................................................-(

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2010

* Econ Growth Good/Bad