Chapter 17

Probability Models

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DO NOW COPY DOWN THESE QUESTIONS

What is a probability model??? 2. Describe the sample space for the sum of two dice. 3. What is the probability of rolling two dice and getting a sum of seven? 4. If you know the probability that event A occurs, how do you calculate the probability that event A does not occur? 5. What probability can you find using the Addition Rule? 6. What probability can you find using the Multiplication Rule? Video: http://www.learner.org/courses/againstallodds/unitpages/unit 19.html
1.
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DO NOW ANSWERS
1)

2) 3) 4) 5)

6)

A probability model is the set of all possible outcomes together with the probabilities associated with those outcomes. S = {2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12} P(7) = 6/36 = 1/6 P(not A) = 1 P(A) If events A and B are mutually exclusive, you can use the Addition Rule to calculate P(A or B), the probability that either A or B occurs. If events A and B are independent, you can use the Multiplication Rule to calculate P(A and B), the probability that both A and B occur.
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AIM 01/02/2014

How do we solve problems involving probability models? Check The Nature of Probability 13.2 #1-5, 11, 13, 15, 18, 46, 47 Tomorrow: The Nature of Probability 13.3 #1-5, 17-20, 31-42, 44, 45 Lets put problems up on the board!

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VIDEO QUESTIONS BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTIONS

1. In a random phenomenon with only two possible outcomes, traditionally what terms are used to label the two outcomes? 2. Give some reasons why the probability of success, p, for free throws is the same for each trial. 3. What is the probability of inheriting sickle cell disease for a child with two parents who are carriers? Why is this probability the same for each child in the family? 4. What is the formula for calculating the mean of a binomial random variable? 5. List the four conditions needed for a binomial distribution. Video: http://www.learner.org/courses/againstallodds/unitpages/unit21.html
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VIDEO ANSWERS
1. Success and failure. 2. Free throws are always shot from the same distance. There is no defensive pressure during play. The probability of making the shot is based on individual players shooting skills. 3. The probability is 0.25, or 25%. Parents genetic makeup never changes from child to child so the probability is the same for each child born to these parents. 4. = np. 5. The four conditions are listed below. 1. There are a fixed number of n trials or observations. 2. The trials are independent. 3. The trials end in one of two possible outcomes: Success (S) or Failure (F). 4. The probability of success, p, is the same for all trials.
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AIM 01/06/2014

How do we solve problems involving probability models? Check: The Nature of Probability 13.3 #1-5, 1720, 31-42, 44, 45 For Wednesday: Read Chapter 17, 3-7ODD, 1015 ODD Lets put problems up on the board!

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Bernoulli Trials

The basis for the probability models we will examine in this chapter is the Bernoulli trial. We have Bernoulli trials if: there are two possible outcomes (success and failure). the probability of success, p, is constant. the trials are independent.

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The Geometric Model

A single Bernoulli trial is usually not all that interesting. A Geometric probability model tells us the probability for a random variable that counts the number of Bernoulli trials until the first success. Geometric models are completely specified by one parameter, p, the probability of success, and are denoted Geom(p).

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The Geometric Model (cont.)

Geometric probability model for Bernoulli trials: Geom(p) p = probability of success q = 1 p = probability of failure X = number of trials until the first success occurs x-1

P(X = x) = q p
s=

1 E( X ) = m = p
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q p2
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Independent Practice

Postini is a global company specializing in communications security. The company monitors over 1 billion internet messages per day and recently reported that 91% of all e-mails are spam! Lets assume that your e-mail is typical 91% spam. Well assume youre not using a spam filter, so every message gets dumped in your inbox. And, since spam comes from many different sources, well consider your message to be independent. Question: Overnight your inbox collects e-mail. When you first check your e-mail in the morning, about how many spam messages can you expect to wade through and discard before a real message. What is the probability that the fourth message in your inbox is the first one that isnt spam?
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Independence

One of the important requirements for Bernoulli trials is that the trials be independent. When we dont have an infinite population, the trials are not independent. But, there is a rule that allows us to pretend we have independent trials: The 10% condition: Bernoulli trials must be independent. If that assumption is violated, it is still okay to proceed as long as the sample is smaller than 10% of the population.

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The Binomial Model

A Binomial model tells us the probability for a random variable that counts the number of successes in a fixed number of Bernoulli trials. Two parameters define the Binomial model: n, the number of trials; and, p, the probability of success. We denote this Binom(n, p).

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AIM 10/08/2013

How do we solve problems involving probability models? Check todays HW: Read Chapter 17, 3-7ODD, 915 ODD Lets put problems up on the board! Tomorrows homework: Read Chapter 17, #9, 1921 ODD, 23, 25

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The Binomial Model (cont.)

In n trials, there are n! n Ck = k !(n - k )! ways to have k successes. Read nCk as n choose k.

Note: n! = n (n 1) 2 1, and n! is read as n factorial.

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The Binomial Model (cont.)

Binomial probability model for Bernoulli trials: Binom(n,p) n = number of trials p = probability of success q = 1 p = probability of failure X = # of successes in n trials

P(X = x) = nCx p q

nx

m = np
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s = npq
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Independent Practice

The communications monitoring company Postini reports that 91% of e-mail messages are spam. Suppose your inbox contains 25 messages. Questions: What is the mean and standard deviation of the number of real messages you should expect to find in your inbox. Whats the probability that you will only find one or two messages?

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The Normal Model to the Rescue!

When dealing with a large number of trials in a Binomial situation, making direct calculations of the probabilities becomes tedious (or outright impossible). Fortunately, the Normal model comes to the rescue

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The Normal Model to the Rescue (cont.)

As long as the Success/Failure Condition holds, we can use the Normal model to approximate Binomial probabilities. Success/failure condition: A Binomial model is approximately Normal if we expect at least 10 successes and 10 failures: np 10 and nq 10

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Independent Practice

The communications company Postini has reported that 91% of e-mail messages are spam. Recently, you installed a spam filter. You observe that over the past week it Oked only 151 of 1422 e-mails you received, classifying the rest as junk. Should you worry that the filtering is too aggressive? Question: What is the probability that no more then 151 of 1422 e-mails is a real message?

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Do Now
Using your group to discuss, write a problem that reflects Bernoulli trials. How would you apply this to the Geometric Model, the Binomial Model, and the Normal Model. Be prepared to share! Example: Ms. Boyd loves to cook, but has difficulty making Russian blini. There is only a 30% chance that the first blini will come out correctly. Ms. Boyd makes a batch of 20 blini. Geometric Model: What is the probability that only the fifth blin is going to come out? Binomial Model: What is the probability that exactly 4 blini will come out? Normal Model: What is the probability that at least 3 blini will come out? Slide 17 - 21

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AIM 01/06/2014

How do we solve problems involving probability models? EXPANSION ON HOMEWORK: Chapter 17, #9, 17-21 ODD, 23, 25, 27, 29. (Added problems: 17, 27, 29)

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Continuous Random Variables

When we use the Normal model to approximate the Binomial model, we are using a continuous random variable to approximate a discrete random variable. So, when we use the Normal model, we no longer calculate the probability that the random variable equals a particular value, but only that it lies between two values.

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Independent Practice
The Pew Research Center suggests that they are able to contact only 76% of randomly selected households drawn from a telephone survey. Questions: 1) Explain why these phone calls can be considered Bernoulli trials. 2) Which models of this chapter (Geometric, Binomial. Normal) would you use to model the number of successful contacts from a list of 1000 sampled households? Explain.

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Independent Practice
The Pew Research Center suggests that they are able to contact only 76% of randomly selected households drawn from a telephone survey. Questions: 3) Pew further reports that even after they contacted a household only 38% agreed to be interviewed, so the probability of getting a complete interview for a selected household is only 0.29. Which of the models of this chapter would you use to model the number of households Pew has to call before they get the first completed interview?

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What Can Go Wrong?

Be sure you have Bernoulli trials. You need two outcomes per trial, a constant probability of success, and independence. Remember that the 10% Condition provides a reasonable substitute for independence. Dont confuse Geometric and Binomial models. Dont use the Normal approximation with small n. You need at least 10 successes and 10 failures to use the Normal approximation.

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What have we learned?

Bernoulli trials show up in lots of places. Depending on the random variable of interest, we might be dealing with a Geometric model Binomial model Normal model

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What have we learned? (cont.)

Geometric model

When were interested in the number of Bernoulli trials until the next success. When were interested in the number of successes in a certain number of Bernoulli trials.
To approximate a Binomial model when we expect at least 10 successes and 10 failures.

Binomial model

Normal model

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