DO NOW – COPY DOWN THESE QUESTIONS

2. Describe the sample space for the sum of two dice.

3. What is the probability of rolling two dice and getting a sum of seven?

4. If you know the probability that event A occurs, how do you calculate the probability that event A does not
occur?
Video:
DO NOW ANSWERS
1)

A probability model is the set of all possible

2)

outcomes together with the probabilities associated with those outcomes. S = {2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12}

3)

P(7) = 6/36 = 1/6

4)

P(not A) = 1 – P(A)

5)

If events A and B are mutually exclusive, you

6)

can use the Addition Rule to calculate P(A or B), the probability that either A or B occurs. If events A and B are independent, you can use the Multiplication Rule to calculate P(A and B),

the probability that both A and B occur.
VIDEO QUESTIONS – BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTIONS
1. In a random phenomenon with only two possible outcomes, traditionally what terms are used to label the two outcomes?
2.

Give some reasons why the probability of success, p, for free throws is

the same for

each trial.

3.

What is the probability of inheriting sickle cell disease for a child with

two parents who are carriers? Why is this probability the same for each child in the family?

4.

What is the formula for calculating the mean of a binomial random

variable?

5.

List the four conditions needed for a binomial distribution.

Video:

VIDEO ANSWERS
defensive pressure during play. The probability of making the shot is
based on individual player’s shooting skills.
changes from child to child so the probability is the same for each child
born to these parents.

4. µ = np.

5. The four conditions are listed below.

1. There are a fixed number of n trials or observations.

2. The trials are independent.

3. The trials end in one of two possible outcomes: Success (S) or Failure (F).

4. The probability of success, p, is the same for all trials.
The Geometric Model (cont.)
Geometric probability model for Bernoulli trials:
Geom(p) p = probability of success q = 1 – p = probability of failure X = number of trials until the first success occurs
P(X = x) = q ^{x}^{}^{1} p
s =
Independent Practice
billion internet messages per day and recently reported that 91% of all emails are spam! Let’s assume that your email is typical – 91% spam. We’ll assume you’re not using a spam filter, so every message gets dumped in
your inbox. And, since spam comes from many different
sources, we’ll consider your message to be independent.
Independence

One of the important requirements for Bernoulli trials is that the trials be independent.

When we don’t have an infinite population, the trials are
not independent. But, there is a rule that allows us to
pretend we have independent trials:
The Binomial Model (cont.)
n
C =
k
n !
!
(
)
k n  k
!
ways to have k successes.
The Binomial Model (cont.)
Binomial probability model for Bernoulli trials:
Binom(n,p)
n = number of trials p = probability of success q = 1 – p = probability of failure X = # of successes in n trials
P(X = x) = _{n} C _{x} p ^{x} q ^{n}^{–}^{x}
_{m} _{=} _{n}_{p}
s = npq
Independent Practice
reports that 91% of email messages are spam.
Suppose your inbox contains 25 messages.
The Normal Model to the Rescue!
Binomial situation, making direct calculations of
the probabilities becomes tedious (or outright impossible).
The Normal Model to the Rescue (cont.)
Binomial probabilities.
np ≥ 10 and nq ≥ 10
Do Now
Model, the Binomial Model, and the Normal Model. Be prepared to share! Example: Ms. Boyd loves to cook, but has difficulty making
Russian blini. There is only a 30% chance that the first blini
will come out correctly. Ms. Boyd makes a batch of 20 blini. Geometric Model: What is the probability that only the fifth blin is going to come out? Binomial Model: What is the probability that exactly 4 blini will come out? Normal Model: What is the probability that at least 3 blini will
come out?
Continuous Random Variables
random variable to approximate a discrete random variable.
longer calculate the probability that the random variable equals a particular value, but only that it lies between two values.
Independent Practice
households drawn from a telephone survey.
Questions:
1) Explain why these phone calls can be
considered Bernoulli trials. 2) Which models of this chapter (Geometric,
Binomial. Normal) would you use to model the
number of successful contacts from a list of 1000 sampled households? Explain.
What Can Go Wrong?
probability of success, and independence.
What have we learned? (cont.)

Geometric model

Binomial model
in a certain number of Bernoulli trials.
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