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Region IV-A)
Summary of the Outputs
12 September 2013
Contents
Study Scope and Process Regional Development Issues Regional Development Direction Urban Issues of Metro Manila Mega Manila Transport Dream Plan Short-term Investment Program (2014-2016) Draft Final Report
To formulate Transportation Infrastructure Roadmap for sustainable development of Metro Manila region Dream Plan (2030) and Short-term (20142016) March August 2013 1st Inter-agency Meeting (5 April) NEDA Infra Staff Meeting (21 May) 2nd Inter-agency Meeting (23 May) Meeting with DPWH Secretary (10 June) Meeting with DOTC Secretary (13 June) Meeting with MMDA Chairman (13 June) NEDA Infra Staff Meeting (24 June) Meeting with Donors (July 5) INFRACOM Meeting (30 July) Meeting with DOTC Secretary (7 August) Meeting with DPWH Secretary (15 August) Meeting with DOTC Secretary (6 September)
GCR: Metro Manila, Region III, Region IV-A Mega Manila: Metro Manila, Bulacan, Rizal, Laguna, Cavite Metro Manila : 17 cities/municipality
Nueva Ecija
Tarlac
Aurora
100km
Region III
Pampanga
Bulacan
50km
Study Period
Metro Manila
Rizal
Cavite Batangas
Laguna
Region IV-A
3
Metro Manila shares 35.5% of countrys GRDP Greater Capital Region (GCR) shares 62.0% of countrys GRDP
GRDP (value & growth rate) GRDP/capita (value & growth rate)
Legend
Primary Secondary Tertiary
Metro Manila
R-III
Metro Manila
R-III
Metro Manila
R-III
Metro Manila
Developments are in progress in selected locations (Clark, Subic, Tarlac, others) with uncoordinated and unsynchronized pattern of urban growth.
Concentration of the activities and wealth in Metro Manila continues while the benefits do not spillover sufficiently to outer regions. Carrying capacity of Metro Manila is being reached; traffic congestions worsen, pollutions increase, hazard risk increase, population density reaches very high level; sustainable growth threatened. Low income groups suffer more seriously.
Metro Manilas problems can no longer be solved within Metro Manila. BRLC provinces must be prepared to avoid negative impact of Metro Manilas urbanization. BRLC and Region III and Region IV must work out effective ways to maximize the impacts of Metro Manila and mitigate Metro Manilas problems.
Gate to wellspring of hope Place for livable communities Space for dynamic business centers
Key interventions
Integrated transport and urban and rural mobility Disaster preparedness and resilience Environment and high-quality public space Affordable housing policy and delivery Land use management and development control
Regional Level Accelerate economic growth through expansion of manufacturing, BPO, services and tourism Protect prime agricultural areas for food security Avoid urban sprawl , especially in hazard risk areas Promote growth of regional centers Strengthen connectivity between the region and Metro Manila, and among growth centers in the region Improve public transport services and logistics in the region
Future
150km
Baler
125km
Tarlac Cabamatuan
100km
Mabalacat
125km
Tarlac
Palayan Cabanatuan
100km
Mabalacat Angels
Gapan
75km
San Fernando
75km
San Fernando Lubao Baliuag Malolos Meycauayan Balanga Sta.Maria San Jose Del Monte Rodriguez San Mateo Antipolo Cainta Taytay Binangonan San Pedro Sta. Rosa Binan Cabuyao Calamba Tagaytay
50km
Olongapo Balanga Malolos
25km
Sta. Maria San Jose Del Monte Rodriguez San Mateo Antipolo Cainta Taytay Binangonan
50km
25km
Tourism, others
Sta Cruz
Improved connectivity
Sta Cruz
Calamba
San Pabro
Tanauan Lipa
Lipa
Lucena
Batangas
Lucena
Batangas
10
Gateway Seaports
100km
Port Area
MICT (ICTSI)
NAIA New NAIA (tentative)
Capacity
1,500,000 850,000 600,000 400,00
Development of New NAIA (existing NAIA will be closed and converted for New CBD
Shift cargo-handling function of Metro Manila to Subic and Batangas Regenerate Manila Port to high value-added diversified waterfront areas
Development of CLARK (core airport for central and northern cluster; alternative to New NAIA)
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integrate cities, growth centers, gateways, urban and rural areas within a region facilitate local economic development, enhance social integrity, and promote environmental sustainability facilitate planned/guided urban growth and expansion of Metro Manila
Main components
improve gateway ports (Subic & Batangas) and airport (CLARK) north-south transport backbone expressway & mass-transit) secondary roads for Region III & Region IV-A
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Area620 km2 Population density 191 pax/ha Seoul : 170 Jakarta : 131 Shanghai : 124
16,000
(000)
15,486
13,425 13,904 13,109
12,000
7,929 5,926
5,005
9,933 7,970
11,858 11,170
8,000
4,000
3,396
Mmanila
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
3.3 8.3 mil (5 mil) 1.6 7.9 mil (6.3 mil) 7.9 - 11.9 mil (4 mil)
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Core issue #1 : Management of population distribution and spatial expansion is the key for sustainable development of Metro Manila.
Continuous population inflow to MManila: additional 1.8 million by 2030 if current trend continues. Population density increased from 158 person/ha to 195 person/ha between 1996 and 2010. Growth in peri-urban areas (BRLC): additional 3.9 million by 2030
Population Distribution Population Growth Population Density
Earthquake
Flood
Expansion of urban area should be directed the north-south, because lands in the east and west are high risk of hazard.
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High risk areas: 1.4 mil. (GCR), 0.5 mil. (MManila) Moderate risk areas: 1.8 mil. (GCR), 0.7 mil. (MManila)
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Resettlement: 300,000
Upgrading: 500,000
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2012 12.8 6.0 69% 78% 2.4 1.0 4.79 0.014 3.20 0.005
2030 14.5 8.0 69% 78% 6.0 3.5 5.72 0.019 4.49 0.010
30/12 1.13 1.33 1.00 1.00 2.50 3.50 1.19 1.36 1.40 2.00
2030 Do Nothing
Volume/ Capacity Ratio
V/C > 1.50 (beyond capacity) V/C = 1.00 1.50 (at & above capacity) V/C = 0.75 1.00 (reaching capacity) V/C < 0.75 (below capacity)
5% 4% 3%
2% 1% 0%
02 07 13 19 24
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Development of sub-centers
Recovery of open space Redevelopment of central areas
Conventional Proposed
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Expressway
Integration of regional development clusters; Metro Manila, Peri-urban areas in Bulacan, Cavite, Lagna, Subic-Clark-Tarlac and Batangas-Lipa-Lucena with northsouth transport backbones (expressway and suburban rail) Accommodation of ISFs living in high hazard risk areas and those who need affordable housing in planned new urban areas with good accessibility and living environment in Bulacan, Cavite and Laguna areas. Retrofitting/regeneration of existing urban areas in integration with transportation development (port areas, NAIA, water front, others)
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METRO-MANILA
INNER-CITY REDEVEROPMENT/
REVITALIZATION
AFFORDABLE HOUSING REHABILITAION OF DISASTER
PRONE AREAS
Region IV -A
REGIONAL GROWTH CENTER (BATANGAS-LIPA-LUCENA)
To curb unorganized development by private sector Location: 25km from Tokyo and 12km from Yokohama city center Area2,500ha; Popn180,000(2013)
To dedensify population density of Tokyo Relocation of R&D and education facilities Location: 50km from Tokyo, 40km from Narita International Airport Area28,400 ha; Central part2,700 ha Population216,300 (2011)
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125km
3,600ha
100km
Angels
1,000ha
San Fernand
75km
45ha 100ha
50km
(1230) Formulate a PPP model based on Population increase 85ha control and guidance Metro Manila: 1.8 million
Malolos San Jose Del Monte Meycauayan Balanga
25km
Public: planning and enforcement, north-south mass transit, access to stations, basic infrastructure, public facilities Private: housing (resettlement, low to medium cost), commercial/business facilities, industrial parks, relocation of universities
Antipolo
1,500ha
88ha
1,000ha
Tanauan
San Pablo
400ha
600ha
Lipa
100ha 100ha
Tayabas Lucena
342ha
Batangas
50ha
24
Technical/ physical coordination and integration of transport infrastructures and facilities Role of LGUs; Row acquisition, articulated secondary/ local roads, more attention to sidewalks/ pedestrian friendly facilities, local traffic management, opening up of selected roads within gated communities, promotion of NMT, support to public transport More effective involvement of stakeholders for traffic enforcement, awareness enhancement
25
27
Missing links: C3, C5, bridges and others 137km of new roads Flyovers Sidewalks and pedestrian facilities Intercity expressway (426 km) Urban expressway network (78 km) Main lines: 246 km (6 lines) Secondary lines: 72 km (5 lines) Integrated lines and improved accessibility Modern fleet and operation Rationalized route structure Improved terminals/interchange facilities Traffic signals (ITS) Traffic safety Traffic environment and education
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Expressways
Urban/Suburban rail
Bus/Jeepneys
Traffic management
To strengthen northsouth transport axis to guide future urban expansion To promote shift from road-based traffic to rail-based mass transit To strengthen network resilience through integrated multi-modal transport system (urban roads, expressways and rail-transit including MRT, LRT, AGT and BRT)
29
29
30
Hierarchical railway network PNR/AER (suburban/urban backbone) Primary urban Secondary urban Impact of integration (common fare) Ridership increase: +20% Bus/jeepney ridership increase: + 2% Impact on road traffic: - 4% Expected modal share in 2030 (MManila) Railway: 41 % (person trip-km) Bus/Jeepney: 33% Car: 26 % Railway share of other successful cities Yokohama (46%) Tokyo (62%), Singapore (20%), Hong Kong (25%) New York (24%)
Note: excluding walk trips
Monorail (Chiba)
Guideway Bus (Nagoya) Monorail (integrated with commercial/ other building) (Kokura) Linear motor car (Aichi)
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To strengthen connectivity between Metro Manila and adjoining municipalities in Region III and IV-A To establish a competitive (high quality and capacity) north south public transport backbone To guide urban development of new urban centers along the route to meet large resettlement demands
Route length; 91 km (total) Elevated with modern high capacity train Future extension to CLARK and the rest of Luzon island
Program components
Coordinated design and construction of railway, expressway and at-grade roads for maximum Impacts utilization of existing PNR ROW Improved traffic management along the route Planning and implementation of TOD and landuse management
Key considerations
Technical adjustment of expressways and rail structures and institutional coordination between/among relevant organizations to ensure efficient railway operation and services.
33
Urban expressways
Role of urban expressway
Attract long-trip vehicle traffic from at-grade urban roads Provide congestion free fast travel to those who are willing to pay for such service Strengthen network resilience
35
Comprehensive approach is necessary to modernize bus system and services Bus fleet, bus terminals, route planning, fare setting and collection are all interrelated.
Subsidy
36
Incident Detection
Transit Priority
37
Pedestrian zone
38
Road/Expressway Projects
Length Cost (km) (Php mil.) C3 Missing Link (Sanjuan - Makati)* 5.9 24,000 Project C5 Missing Link Pasig River Bridge (BGC Ortigas)* Skyway-FTI-C5 Connector* Other Interchanges/Flyovers Other Urban Roads NCR (Secondary Roads Package) BRCL (Secondary Road Package) Region III (Sec Roads - Approx.) Region IV-A (Sec Roads Approx.) Road Total SEG 9 & 10/ connection to R10* NLEX-SLEX Connector* Skyway Stage 3* NAIA Expressway Phase2* Pasay - Makati BGC Sta. Mesa - Pasig (Shaw Boulevard) CALA Exp. (Bacoor - Sta. Rosa)* Other Expressways Expressways Upgrade Expressway Total Roads & Expressway Total 6.9 1.2 3.0 6.7 32.9 208.4 432.2 200.0 400.0 1,297 8 13.3 13.3 7.1 9.3 Status Proposed Committed/ 680 Proposed Proposed
195,520 Proposed 47,680 Proposed 62,040 Proposed 9,960 Proposed Committed 111,640 / Proposed Committed 61,640 / Proposed 30,840 Proposed 68,600 Proposed 128,360 Committed 514,160 Proposed
8,120
West (to MM North Harbor) MRT 3 Ext. (to Malabon & MoA) MRT-7 (Recto-Comm.Av.- Banaba)*
17,880 Committed 8,040 Committed 2,400 Committed 145,760 Proposed 82,360 Proposed 16,000 Proposed 32,000 337,240 8,600 18,800 9,000 15,000 24,200 Proposed Committed Committed Committed Committed Proposed
N-S Subway (Dasmarinas East - San Jose Delmonte) Total Primary (Incl. Upgrade) Total Main Ortigas - Angono Paco - Pateros Marikina - Katipunan Alabang - Zapote Zapote Cavite Gen Trias Total Secondary Total Metro Rail Secondary Lines
*Short term project
202.1 987,240 422.2 1,230,440 13.7 31,720 Proposed 11.3 33,800 Proposed 16.8 31,480 Proposed 9.3 13,400 Proposed 20.6 25,560 Proposed 71.1 135,960 493.9 1,366,400
Expressway
Road
7.1
47.2 388.3 208.4 702 1,999
23,440
Proposed
a. NAIA Improvement airside package* b. NAIA improvements landside package* a. Clark improvement - airside package* 2. Clark b. Clark improvement landside package* c. Clark Future Development 3. New NAIA Airport Infrastructure Total
1. NAIA
B. Ports
Name of Project 1. Replacement of North Harbor 2. Other regional Ports 3. Other Port Program* Port Projects Total Amount (Php Status million) 40,000 Proposed 2,000 Proposed 12,080 Proposed 54,080 -
2. 2-BRT Lines*
3. Jeepney Fleet Modernization 4. Urban Bus Fleet Modernization Road-based Public Transport
Total Investment Program for Transport: Php 2,411 billion (USD 60.3 billion)
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V/C > 1.50 (beyond capacity) V/C = 1.00 1.50 (at & above capacity) V/C = 0.75 1.00 (reaching capacity) V/C < 0.75 (below capacity)
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Preliminary evaluation of Dream Plan Total investment cost up to 2030: Php 2,411 bil. (US$ 60.3 bil.)
Economic impact: VOC saving: Php 2.1 bil./day = Php 630 bil./year Time cost saving: Php 1.9 bil./day = Php 570 bil./year Financial impact: Toll and fare revenue: Php 397 mil./day = Php 119 bil./year Social impact: Public transport fare saving: Php 18/person/day (from Php 42 to Php 24) Travel time reduction: 55 min./persontrip (from 80 min. to 25 min.) Environmental impact: Reduction in GHG: 5,760 ton/day (from 19,100 to 13,300 ton/day) Reduction in PM: 47 ton/day (from 63 to 16 ton/day Reduction in NOx: 65 ton/day (from 197 to 132 ton/day)
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43
45
B. Expressways
Name of Project 1. Daang Hari-SLEX Link Tollroad a. Link Expressway (MNTC) 2. NLEX-SLEX b. Skyway 3 section (Citra) Connectors c. Common section (DPWH) d. Seg. 9&10, and connection to R10 3. NAIA Expressway, phase 2 4. CALA Expressway, stages 1 and 2 5. CLLEX Phase I (La Paz, Tarlac Cabanatuan) 6. Calamba-Los Baos Expressway 7. C6 extension Lakeshore Dike Road 8. Segment 8.2 of NLEx to Comm. Expressways Total Amount (Php Mil.) Status 2,000 Committed 7,800 Committed
9,000 Committed
11,000 Committed 8,600 Committed 15,520 Committed 14,232 Committed 12,833 Committed 16,900 Proposed 43,380 Proposed 7,000 Proposed 148,265 -
24,000 Proposed
3,744 Committed 900 Committed 2,430 Committed 941 Committed 1,502 Committed 1,575 Committed 435 Committed 1,070 Committed 63,293 -
C. Other Roads
Name of Project 1. Secondary Road Packages 2. Preparatory studies for several projects 3. Other Central Luzon Road Projects 4. Other Southern Luzon Road Projects Other Roads Total Amount (Php Mil.) Status 69,100 Proposed 500 Proposed 16,000 Committed 36,360 Committed 121,960 46
D. Railways
Name of Project 1. LRT1 - Cavite Extension (Niyog) 2. LRT2 - East Extension 3. MRT3 Capacity Expansion 4. MRT 7 stage1 (Quezon Ave. Commonwealth Ave.) 5. AFCS Common Ticketing System 6. System Rehabilitations for LRT1 and 2 7. Mega Manila NorthSouth Commuter Railway a. AER Phase 1 (Malolos-Manila) b. South Com. Stg.1 (Manila-Calamba) c. Remedial for Phase 1 of NS Rail Link Amount (Php Mil.) Status
30,764 Committed 9,446 Committed 10,200 Committed 51,870 Committed 1,722 Committed 4,500 Committed Proposed 24,800 Committed Proposed 120 Proposed 75 Proposed 146,897 -
G. Airports
Name of Project a. NAIA Improvement airside package b. NAIA improvements landside package a. Clark improvement - airside package 2. Clark b. Clark improvement landside package 3. Feasibility Study of a New NAIA Airport Infrastructure Total Amount (Php Mil.) Status Committed Committed Committed 6,802 Committed 50 Proposed 11,125 -
1. NAIA
4,249
8. Metro Manila CBD Transit System Project Study 9. F/S of New Transport System (e.g. Monorail , AGT) Railways Total
H. Ports*
Name of Project 1. Projects for North Harbor 2. Projects for South Harbor 3. MICT 4. Feasibility Study of NH Redevelopment 5. Other ports Port Projects Total Amount (Php Mil.) 6,000 1,000 4,000 75 1,010 12,085 Status Committed Committed Committed Proposed Proposed -
*Planned expansion projects recommended for rescheduling to promote diversion of cargo to Batangas
and Subic ports as well as decongest roads of Metro Manila.
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Urban/Suburban Rails
Calamba
48
Budget Envelop
2014-16 Short-term Plan, 2014-2016
545,000 540,000 535,000 530,000 525,000 520,000 515,000 510,000 505,000 500,000 510,991
(Php million) 350,000 300,000 250,000
(Php million)
6.0 38,545
538,557
519,535
1) 5% of GDP (except 2014 is 3.5% of GDP per NEDA) 2) 61% of National 3) 50% of Total Infra Source: NSCB (2012) for trend and shares
200,000
495,000
Submitted 1/ Program 2/ Budget 3/
1) committed projects 2) programmed incl. committed and proposed projects 3) computed budget envelope
Budget
Program
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50