Documenti di Didattica
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14 May, 2009
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Agenda
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Volatility Still Remains High
Source: Bloomberg
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Stock Market Has Bounced Off Its Lows
Source: Bloomberg
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P/Es Are Down – Stocks Seem Fairly Valued
Source: Bloomberg
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Management Guidance – Good, Bad, Not Ugly
“Instead of each month looking and not knowing where the bottom is, they are for the
first time getting something tangible beneath them.”
- John Chambers, CEO of Cisco Systems Inc.
“It is increasingly clear that the worst is over…we’ve hit a floor, and we seem to be
getting some bounce off it.”
- Rupert Murdoch, CEO of News Corp.
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Agenda
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The Long And Short Of It
Exposures (% Equity):
Longs + Shorts = Gross
Longs – Shorts = Net
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Performance Examples
Exposure Market +30% Market -30% Market Flat*
9% -9% 26%
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Investment Principles
z Stay passionate about technology – focus matters – identify long term trends
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Technology Trends Create and Destroy Value
Winners Winners Winners
IBM Winners
Microsoft Cisco
Sperry Google?
Compaq Lucent
Univac Apple?
Dell Nortel
NCR Research In Motion?
Intel Nokia
Control Data Qualcomm?
Gateway Ericsson
Honeywell Amazon?
Hewlett Packard Sun Microsystems
Digital Equipment
Xerox
Wang
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TMT - Winners and Losers Every Year
The "normal years" The "bubble years" Normal??
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 AVG 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
TMT Universe 1,344 1,358 1,376 1,382 1,468 1,551 1,619 1,727 1,770 1,882 2,330 2,365 2,158 2,032 2,274 2,571 3,004 3,890 2,543
Stocks +50% 29 142 102 219 126 231 200 259 287 800 167 236 61 722 445 370 535 796 22
% Universe 2% 11% 7% 16% 9% 15% 12% 15% 16% 11% 43% 7% 10% 3% 36% 20% 14% 18% 20% 1%
Stocks -30% 258 63 145 38 94 90 157 275 276 109 1059 1044 1181 56 231 172 228 626 1928
% Universe 19% 5% 11% 3% 6% 6% 10% 16% 16% 10% 6% 46% 44% 55% 3% 10% 7% 8% 16% 62%
NASDAQ Index 374 586 677 777 752 1052 1291 1570 2193 4069 2471 1950 1336 2003 2175 2205 2415 2652 1577
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Agenda
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Current Trends in TMT
z Smartphones
− Mobile internet will make it compelling for everyone to own a smartphone
− Cell phone base may reach 4 billion units in 2010 – growing 1.2 billion units/year
− Smartphones just 5% of this market today – units growing 25% in tough economy
− Key winners: Research in Motion, Apple - they have the software expertise
− Losers: Nokia?
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Current Trends in TMT - Background
z Mobility
− Historical trends (internet, communications, computing) converging to create Mobility mega-trend
Enabled by cheap technology (semiconductors, LCD screen, touch interface)
− Handset market growth hits plateau at 1.2B units per year
Incremental handset growth comes from replacement market not new subscribers
New features and functionality required to drive upgrades and adoption of smart phones
− Smart phone is under-penetrated in all geographies and growing 25% in a tough economy
30% penetration of North America and Europe units
15% penetration of worldwide units
− Key Winners: RIMM, AAPL
Own the ecosystem: hardware + software
Deliver a platform and a service
z AAPL – iTunes store for media and applications
z RIMM – Push email and blackberry messenger
Unit share is deceptive, 5 to 8 low-end units required to equal gross profit from 1 smart phone
Key incumbent problem – “how do you drive car with your foot on both the gas pedal and the brake?”
z Can’t cut costs to stay competitive at low-end and invest in high-end
Units can disappear quickly: Siemens went from shipping 45M units to zero in 18 months
No software strategy, lack of core expertise in computing, development platforms needed to win
At 15x forward EPS – better to own RIMM or AAPL?
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Current Trends in TMT - Background
z Virtual Enterprise
− The desktop is dead
− Consumer technologies are driving enterprise innovation (salesforce.com, google, facebook)
− Virtualization driving adoption of “Cloud Computing” architecture
− Lines between a server and a switch are blurring (CSCO) creating a new landscape
z Key Winner: CTXS
− Only pure-play virtualization asset (VMW owned by EMC)
− Virtual Desktops are a huge new opportunity
− Strategic value of asset only increasing (HPQ, IBM, DELL, CSCO)
− Enables vision of “one desktop at any time, any where, on any device”
YouTube features demo of full-featured Windows dekstop running on iPhone
z Key Loser: INTC
− Moore’s law is no longer relevant – users no longer need higher performance CPU
Consumer focus on communications (3G, WiFi)
− All end markets under attack
Desktops are going away
Server market shrinking due to virtualization
Netbooks cannibalizing the notebook market
− New competitors entering the market (QCOM, NVDA)
− High fixed cost model, fab ownership requires significant investments
− Management team not focused on returning capital to shareholders
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