ERNIE I.

MARTIJA BSBA-FM 01
Fundamental Counting Principle Counting problems can be analyzed as a series of decisions where each decision involves choosing from among 1 or more options. In many cases, the number of outcomes that are possible can be found by multiplying the number of options for the first decision times the number of options for the second decision times the number of options for the third decision and so on. For example, consider the number of ways in which a set of five different books can be arranged on a shelf. Since there are five books, there are five decisions. One must select the first book, then the second, the third, the fourth, and finally the fifth. For each decision there is a finite number of options. According to the Fundamental Counting Principle the product of these numbers is the number of possible arrangements. The fundamental counting principle can be expressed as a three-step process: 1. Determine the number of decisions. 2. For each decision, determine the number of options. 3. Multiply these numbers together to determine the number of possible outcomes. These steps can be applied to our book arrangements: 1. There are five decisions because there are five books in the arrangement. 2. For the first book there are five options since any of the five books can be selected. For the second book there are only four options since there are only four books left (one of the books has already been placed on the shelf). For the third book there are only three options. For the fourth book there are only two books left from which to choose. By the time you get to the fifth book, there is only one option left since the other four books have already been selected. 3. The product of the numbers 5, 4, 3, 2, and 1 is 120. Consequently there are 120 ways in which five different books can be arranged on a shelf.

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Permutations A permutation is an ordered arrangement of some or all of the elements in a set. Since a permutation is an ordered arrangement, any alteration in the order in which the elements are arranged is a new permutation. While there is a mathematical formula that can be used, the number of permutations can also be found by applying the fundamental counting principle. Each arrangement of books in the example above is a permutation. Mathematically speaking, the book problem can be restated as, "Find the number of permutations of 5 things taken 5 at a time." In that problem, the goal was to count the number of ordered arrangements of all of the elements in the set. Consider a variation of that problem: given a set of 20 different books, how many different arrangements of 5 books are possible? The question is equivalent to, "Find the number of permutations of 20 things taken 5 at a time." Notice that in this problem not every element in the set is part of the ordered arrangement; only 5 of them are actually selected. 1. Determine the number of decisions. Since there are only five books in any given arrangement there are five decisions; which book shall appear first, which second, and so on. 2. For each decision, determine the number of options. For the first book there are 20 options since any of the books can be selected. For the second book there are only 19 books left from which to choose. For the third book there are 18 options, for the fourth 17 options, and for the final book there are 16 books which could be chosen. 3. Multiply these numbers together to determine the number of arrangements.

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Multiplying these values together yields a result of 1,860,480 arrangements of 5 books taken from a collection of 20 books.

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For the first topping there are 10 options. Since each topping must be different, there are only 9 toppings left for the second selection and 8 for the third selection. 3. Multiply these numbers together to determine the number of arrangements. The number of ordered arrangements (permutations) of 3 toppings from a set of 10 is 720. 4. Divide to eliminate duplication. However, we are not interested in the number of ordered arrangements of toppings. Rather, we are interested in the number of combinations. Counting permutations leads to duplication since the same combination of toppings is counted more than once. Consider the combination that includes pepperoni, onions, and green peppers. This combination of toppings can be listed in six different orders: pepperoni, onions, green peppers pepperoni, green peppers, onions onions, pepperoni, green peppers onions, green peppers, pepperoni green peppers, pepperoni, onions green peppers, onions, pepperoni Not only is this combination counted six times (as different permutations) but any combination of toppings is also counted six times. Consequently, to arrive at the number of combinations, it is necessary to divide the number of permutations by six to remove the duplication. That is, given 10 toppings from which to select there are 120 (720/6) different combinations of 3 toppings.

Combinations A combination is an unordered collection of some or all of the elements in a set. Since a combination is an unordered collection, any alteration in the order in which the elements are arranged is not a new combination. While there is a mathematical formula that can be used, the number of combinations can also be found by applying the fundamental counting principle with one additional step. 1. Determine the number of decisions. 2. For each decision, determine the number of options. 3. Multiply these numbers to determine the number of arrangements. 4. Divide to eliminate duplication. A pizza store offers a special price on a large pizza with three toppings. Assume that there are 10 toppings from which to choose and that all three toppings must be different. This problem can be restated as, "Find the number of combinations of 10 things taken 3 at a time." Given the customer's selection of three toppings, the order in which these toppings are applied to the pizza is irrelevant. Applying pepperoni, onions, and green peppers is the same as applying green peppers, onions, and pepperoni. The toppings represent an unordered collection rather than an ordered arrangement. 1. Determine the number of decisions. Since there are three toppings, the customer must make three decisions. 2. For each decision, determine the number of options.

In general, determining the duplication factor (the number that one must divide by to remove the duplicate counts) is, itself, a permutation problem. In the pizza problem, the duplication factor is the number of ordered arrangements of the 3 selected toppings. There are 3 decisions since there are 3 toppings to be listed. Any one of the 3 toppings can be listed first, any of the 2 remaining toppings can be listed second, leaving only 1 option for the

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third topping in the list. The product of these numbers is six. Difference between Permutations and Combinations The distinguishing feature between Permutations and Combinations is not whether or not there is repetition. Neither one allows repetition. The difference between the two is whether or not order is important. If you have a problem where you can repeat objects, then you must use the Fundamental Counting Principle, you can't use Permutations or Combinations. Sample Spaces A listing of all the possible outcomes is called the sample space and is denoted by the capital letter S. The sample space for the experiments of flipping a coin and rolling a die are S = { H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6}. Sure enough, there are twelve possible ways. The fundamental counting principle allows us to figure out that there are twelve ways without having to list them all out. Theoretical Probability Definition of Theoretical Probability It is the likeliness of an event happening based on all the possible outcomes. The ratio for the probability of an event 'P' occurring is P (event) = number of favorable outcomes divided by number of possible outcomes. 1.What is the probability of choosing a face card from a deck of 52 cards (face cards are jacks, queens, and kings)? Ans: 12/52 -------------------What is the probability of the 2nd card being a face card if the first card was a king? (Without replacement.) P(fc | k) = 11/51

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On a six sided, die, each side is numbered 1 to 6. So with 2 dice, the total means the sum of the 2 sides that are face up on the dice after you roll them. The question asks what probability there is for the sum to be 5. A fair die means each number has the same probability of being rolled as any other. Since there are 6 sides, any side has a probability of 1/6. So if you roll a 6 sided die, there are 6 possible results but only one of them is a 3 so the probability is 1/6. The probability to roll anything else is then 1 - 1/6 = 5/6. Now, you can get a 5 is die 1 = 1 and die 2 = 4 or die 1 = 2 and die 2 = 3, etc.if you count up all the possible ways for the two dice to total 5, you'll find there are 4 ways to roll a 5. However, each die has 6 possible results so the total number of combinations is 6 * 6 = 36. Therefore the probability is P(total is 5) = 4/36 = 1/9 For the last problem, how many ways are there for one die to be even and how many ways can the die be larger than 3? Find this number and divide by the total number of ways you can roll the die. The answer is definitely 25% (1 in 4) There are three combinations 2 heads, 2 tails, and one head and one tail. However, the frequency that one head and one tail occurs is twice that of both 2 heads or 2 tails. In reality there are 4 combinations HH, TH, HT and TT. (TH and HT are not the same thing as far as probability is concerned!) Flipping the coins are independent actions and therefore the chance of getting a head or a tail with either coin is 50%. The outcome of the first toss does not affect the outcome of the second toss. Therefore the chance of getting two heads is 50% x 50% = 25%. Similarly the probability of getting three heads in a row is 50% x50% x50% = 12.5%.

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