Contention 1: Platinum 1.

Peak platinum will prevent a transition to a hydrogen economy Oil Drum 2008 (The Hydrogen Economy and Peak Platinum, 8-13, http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4405,
ldg, DOA: 5-13-11)
If we assumed that hydrogen

fuel cells could be made significantly more efficient, and thus more competitive with the electric vehicle option, we still have the issue of the scarcity (and thus the cost) of platinum to deal with, as platinum is the material traditionally used as the catalyst in cells. In 2005, South Africa was the top
producer of platinum, accounting for around 80% of world production, followed by Russia and Canada. Significant deposits are also found in Zimbabwe, the United States and, as noted in the introduction, Australia. South Africa has been expanding production rapidly to take advantage of soaring prices - causing some controversy in affected townships. When discussing rare metals, the subject of peak minerals is usually quick to arise. The idea has been covered at a number of venues in recent years - including The Oil Drum, New Scientist (with some good graphics here and here) and WorldChanging. The New Scientist article estimated that there are 360 years of platinum reserves available if we continue to extract it at the current rate of production - however this drops to 15 years if predicted growth in demand is taken into account. One analyst at Resource Investor has predicted that we may have already reached "peak platinum" production, though this seems to be predicated on the belief that production of hybrid and electric vehicles will remove the demand for both fuel cells and catalytic converters in future years, rather than a firm belief in supply constraints. Another analyst at the UK Department For Transport, looked at the platinum supply situation for fuel cell vehicles and concluded: The above projections, coupled with the statements from Cawthorn (1999) about accessible platinum reserves in South Africa, suggest that platinum availability should not be a constraint to the introduction of hydrogen fuel cell cars. If South Africa alone can deliver up to 5% per year additional platinum supply between 2000 and 2050, this equates to an additional 13.6 million oz in 2030, 24.8 million oz in 2040 and 42.9 million oz in 2050, which is sufficient to meet demand under any of the scenarios considered. However there are many important assumptions and uncertainties built into this model. For example, this additional South African platinum supply would be insufficient to meet worldwide platinum demand by 2040 under Scenario 2 (realistic penetration) if any one of the following alternative assumptions is made: * South African supply can only be increased by 4% per annum instead of 5%. * Jewellery demand grows at more than 2% per annum - it is currently assumed to remain constant but grew by an average of 6% per annum between 1994 and 2001. * Fuel cell stacks require more than 0.3 oz of platinum per car in 2040 - it is currently assumed that only 0.2 oz will be required but this is a factor of 10 less than current stack technology. * The demand for cars grows by more than 55% per decade - it is currently assumed to increase by 45% per decade based on USDOE projections. The platinum loading for fuel cell stacks is an important factor in determining the commercial viability of fuel cell cars as well as determining potential platinum demand constraints. The price of platinum is not likely to be a constraint to the introduction of fuel cell vehicles if the expected reductions in platinum loadings are achieved. At current platinum prices and the target platinum loading of 0.2 oz per car, the platinum required for a single car would cost about $90 or $1.5/kW, compared to a cost target of $50/kW for the whole fuel cell engine.

2. Hydrogen is the only way for the US to have a large scale shift to green energy Zerta et al., Munich College, researcher at Ludwig-Blkow-Systemtechnik, 2008
(Martin, Alternative World Energy Outlook (AWEO) and the role of hydrogen in a changing energy landscape, ScienceDirect, ldg, DOA: 5-13-11)
According to LBST analyses, the critical transition period will be between 2015 and 2025 when conventional energy supplies are declining globally. Transportation fuel supply is the bottleneck due to its high dependency on oil. World oil production will peak before 2010, natural gas by 2020. Coal and nuclear energy
cannot fill the gap. Coal will peak before 2050 depending on the extent coal might be used also for the production of transportation fuels. Contributions from nuclear energy will remain marginal on a global level and without considerable increase despite its relevance for some regions. Biomass potentials are limited and cannot cover the current world energy demand on its own. A significant share of the available biomass is already allocated to the stationary sector to provide heat and power. Furthermore, land use competition for fuel and food production is a very critical issue which needs to be addressed in order to avoid distortions in food provision. In general, energy efficiency and energy saving are key elements to minimise disruptions in energy provision and allow for a long-term, sustainable energy supply. Moreover, new technology vectors such as hydrogen are required to fulfil the transition of the energy system. Today, electricity is generated with significant input of primary energy while transportation fuel is provided with few conversion losses in oil refineries. In the future, this picture will turn upside down. While most RES produce electricity directly, such as wind power and PV, transportation fuels will be produced with higher efforts, such as hydrogen or biofuels. Hydrogen

is primarily suited as transportation fuel due to its feedstock flexibility and well-to-wheel efficiency. In stationary applications it can contribute to effective and energy-efficient load
management through the time-triggered production of fuels from excess electricity. Especially this crosscut from electricity to

transportation fuels makes hydrogen a key technology for a future dominated by fluctuating renewable energy.

3. Warming will soon reach a tipping point which collapses many civilizations. Robertson, South Hampton oceanography department, 2009
(J.E., Global Climate Destabilization is Major Security & Economic Threat, 3-9, http://www.casavaria.com/hotspring/2009/03/337/global-climate-destabilization-is-major-security-economic-threat/, ldg, DOA: 5-13-11)
The new administration in Washington, DC, has taken notice: climate change is not about a mild 1 increase in temperature on any given day; it is about a sweeping destabilization of global climate patterns, which could undermine the entire layout of civilization across the world. Building the infrastructure necessary for implementing and sustaining a green energy economy is a security priority in this new environment. Key to

understanding the gravity of climate destabilization are the wide array of catastrophic irreversible impacts that could amplify damage. One such area of concern is what are known as methane hydrates. Real Climate explains that: There is an enormous amount of methane (CH4) on earth frozen into a type of ice called methane hydrate. Hydrates can form with almost any gas and consist of a cage of water molecules surrounding the gas. (The term clathrate more generally describes solids consisting of gases are trapped within any kind of cage while hydrate is the specific term for when the cage is made of water molecules). There are CO2 hydrates on Mars, while on Earth most of the hydrates are filled with methane. Most of these are in sediments of the ocean, but some are associated with permafrost soils. Methane hydrates can be destabilized by warming ocean temperatures. When they are destabilized, they release trapped methane into the oceans, and eventually into the atmosphere. Methane has 8 times the greenhouse effect as carbon dioxide, meaning a massive release would significantly accelerate climate change related to global warming. In the 1990s, the administration of Pres. Bill Clinton devoted $50 million over five years to researching how to extract fuel for energy generation from methane hydrates and carbon dioxide hydrates. But todays concern is more focused on the potential harm from allowing any of the methane trapped in methane hydrates to escape into the atmosphere, whether from burning or melt-induced release. With

evidence mounting that warming is happening far faster than any models predicted, concerns are also mounting that the release of massive amounts of hydrate-trapped methane into the atmosphere could have a radical effect on raising temperatures and destabilizing the Earths climate
patterns, causing rapid acceleration of ice-melt in Greenland and Antarctica, leading to sea-level rises of up to 20 meters. More than half the worlds population lives within the flood-zone for such a sea-level rise. But long before those billions of climate refugees would collapse the supply capacity of the remaining infrastructure of global society, disruptions

to rain patterns could cause the failure of the African and/or Asian monsoons, depriving literally billions of clean water, irrigation and/or food supply. A clean, renewable economic system that does not put added stress on global climate stability is now a moral, economic and
security imperative. It is a matter of not just border security for wealth countries who may seek to limit the ease with which refugees from the most heavily affected impoverished countries can immigrate, but for the political stability of nations around the world. Resource scarcity or resource collapse are the two most severe drivers of political instability or major cross-border conflict. Many countries saddled with chronic water or food scarcity are in a constant state of emergency, on the verge of devoving into civil war or cross-border conflicts, as desperate people struggle to meet their basic vital needs, wherever they can find the resources they requir e. The Earths climate has made human civilization possible by providing an environment hospitable to our preferred way of doing things. Agriculture has been possible only since human beings recognized how to harness reliable climate systems in order to optimize the productivity of cultivated land. Without the Nile flood plane or the Sahel monsoon, agriculture in affected countries becomes impossible and the human food supply collapses. 3.6 billion people live in areas dependent on the Asian monsoons for the necessary quantity of rainfall to supply river systems and make agriculture possible. The

collapse of the Asian monsoon could lead to chronic deprivation for most or all of these people. The wholesale destabilization of the worlds most populous nations would be an economic, political and security crisis far beyond anything experienced in human history, especially considering that four nuclear-armed
states are among those dependent on the monsoons.

4. Hydrogen is much cleaner than gas stopping the civilization collapse Crofton, member of the law firm of Toler & Hanrahan, LLCm 2006
(Peter, ARTICLE: EMERGING ISSUES RELATING TO THE BURGEONING HYDROGEN ECONOMY, 27 Energy L. J. 39, lexis, ldg, DOA: 5-13-11)
Gaseous hydrogen, while highly flammable, n95 is non-toxic and is not currently classified as a hazardous waste. n96 However, the DOT regulations classify many forms of hydrogen as hazardous materials, including compressed, cryogenic liquid and metal hydrides. n97 The disposal of hazardous materials often creates hazardous waste; however, this is not generally true for hydrogen because it is a gas with a high diffusion rate. However, some hydrogen fuels (such as hydrogen borahydride) might not have a high diffusion rate, or might degrade over time leaving other by-products. n98 A

hydrogen gas discharge would cause substantially less, if any, environmental damage than would a discharge of many widely used fuels such as petroleum products. n99 Accordingly, environmental concerns are unlikely to significantly impede the development of hydrogen fuel technologies. However, the early promulgation of environmental standards for hydrogen fuels will eliminate
uncertainty, and facilitate commercialization of these fuels.

5. Hydrogen is the only source that solves oil dependence-no other renewable can supply enough power at peak demand. Lokey, Environmental Studies PhD from Colorado, 2007
(Elizabeth, A critical review of the Energy Policy Act of 2005's treatment of hydrogen, International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, Volume 32, Issue 12, Science Direct, ldg, DOA: 5-13-11)
Despite the lack of a coherent goal and roadmap for the entire EPAct of 2005, the section on hydrogen, Title VIII, provides a clear set of objectives. Hydrogen

is given its own separate title not only because of its ability to serve as a source of heat and electricity, but also because of its potential to be stored and run through a fuel cell to power vehicles. In this way, it could replace the dwindling global supplies of petroleum. Other forms of
alternative energy such as photovoltaic panels and wind turbines can produce electricity without harmful emissions, but are given less consideration in this Act since they replace coal, a resource that is more plentiful than petroleum. Therefore, a conversion to this technology supports Title VIII's goal of decreas[ing] the US dependence on imported oil [3].

Hydrogen could also help achieve the

Title's goal of creat[ing] a sustainable energy economy by acting as a storage medium for the electricity created by the
intermittent resources of wind and solar energy [4]. The energy generated by these sources could be used to break the chemical bonds that bind hydrogen to other substances and create pure hydrogen, which is rare in nature and needed in order to feed hydrogen into a fuel cell, microturbine, or generator to produce electricity. The intermittent renewable resources of wind and solar energy are now only valued for the electrical grid as peak shavers or resources that can reduce the highest demand in the middle of the day. Because they cannot be relied on all of the time, they cannot replace coal, nuclear, and gas power plants, which make up the bulk of the baseline electrical load in the US. Using these intermittent resources to create an energy carrier that can be combusted or sent through a fuel cell to create electricity on demand greatly increases their value and could help supplement growing baseline electrical needs [5].

6. Resource wars will cause extinction Lendman, Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization, 2007
(Stephen, Resource Wars - Can We Survive Them?, Rense.com, 6-6-7, pg.http://www.rense.com/general76/resrouce.htm, ldg, DOA: 5-13-11)

With the world's energy supplies finite, the US heavily dependent on imports, and "peak oil" near or approaching, "security" for America means assuring a sustainable supply of what we can't do without. It includes waging wars to get it, protect it, and defend the maritime trade routes over which it travels. That means energy's partnered with predatory New World Order globalization, militarism, wars, ecological recklessness,
and now an extremist US administration willing to risk Armageddon for world dominance. Central to its plan is first controlling essential resources everywhere, at any cost, starting with oil and where most of it is located in the Middle East and Central Asia. The New "Great Game" and Perils From It The new "Great Game's" begun, but this time the stakes are greater than ever as explained above. The old one lasted nearly 100 years pitting the British empire against Tsarist Russia when the issue wasn't oil. This time, it's the US with help from Israel, Britain, the West, and satellite states like Japan, South Korea and Taiwan challenging Russia and China with today's weapons and technology on both sides making earlier ones look like toys. At twice over.

stake is more than oil. It's planet earth with survival of all life on it issue number one Resources and wars for them means militarism is increasing, peace declining, and the planet's ability to sustain life front and center, if anyone's paying attention. They'd better be because beyond the point of no return, there's no second chance the way Einstein explained after the atom was split . His
famous quote on future wars was : "I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones." Under a worst case scenario, it's more dire than that. There

may be nothing left but resilient beetles and bacteria in the wake of a nuclear holocaust meaning even a new stone age is way in the future, if at all.
The threat is real and once nearly happened during the Cuban Missile Crisis in October, 1962. We later learned a miracle saved us at the 40th anniversary October, 2002 summit meeting in Havana attended by the US and Russia along with host country Cuba. For the first time, we were told how close we came to nuclear Armageddon. Devastation was avoided only because Soviet submarine captain Vasily Arkhipov countermanded his order to fire nuclear-tipped torpedos when Russian submarines were attacked by US destroyers near Kennedy's "quarantine" line. Had he done it, only our imagination can speculate what might have followed and whether planet earth, or at least a big part of it, would have survived.

7. The plan provides enough platinum forever. Crandall et al., MBA Founder of Space Wealth, 2011
(William, Is Profitable Asteroid Mining A Pragmatic Goal?, 2 -23, http://spacewealth.org/files/Is-P@MPragmatic-2011-02-23.pdf, ldg, DOA: 5-13-11)
Some of these resources have outstanding value. Space agencies intent on addressing fundamental economic needs should focus on these materials. Platinum, for example, has sold at over $1,700/oz since January. 25 Platinum group metals (PGMs) are great catalysts. Used in automotive catalytic converters, which are required by national governments worldwide, 26 PGM supplies are quite limited. Some models point to terrestrial depletion within decades. 27 Platinum

group metals are also critical as catalysts in hydrogen fuel cells, which are key to a possible postcarbon, hydrogen economy. 28 In 2008, TheNational Research Council identified PGMs as the most critical metals for U.S. industrial development. 29 Platinum group metals are abundant in certain types of near Earth asteroids (NEAs). NEAs that are mineralogically similar
to one of the most common types of observed fall meteorites (Htype, ordinary chondrites ) offer PGM concentrations (4.5 ppm) 30 that are comparable to those found in profitable terrestrial mines (36 ppm). 31 Other meteorites suggest that some asteroids may contain much more valuable metal. 32 The PGM value of a 200 m asteroid can exceed $1 billion, or possibly $25 billion. 33 Over

7,500 NEAs have been detected. 34 Close to a fifth of these are easier to reach than the moon; more than a fifth of those are 200 m in diameter: 200+ targe ts. 35
President Obama requested, and Congress has authorized, a fourfold increase in detection funding ($5.8 m to $20.4 m/year). 36 This could lead to ~10,000 known 200 m NEAs in a decade. 37 But detection is just a start. The costs to locate, extract, and process asteroid ore are not well understood. 38 Before significant private capital is put at risk, we need to learn more. In cooperation with other forward looking nations, 39 the U.S. should purchase an option to develop asteroid resources by investing in the knowledge required to mine asteroids. We can then choose to exercise this option if terrestrial PGM supplies do in fact collapse. Asteroids

may also be able to supply other metals that

are increasingly at risk. 40 There are several candidates: In 2009, the U.S. imported 100% of 19 key industrial metals. 41

Contention 2: Space Commercialization 8. The plan provides the resources for space tourism. Sonter, independent scientific consultant, 2006
(Mark, Asteroid Mining: Key to the Space Economy, 2 -9, http://www.space.com/2032-asteroid-mining-key-spaceeconomy.html, ldg, DOA: 5-13-11)
Development and operation of future in-orbit infrastructure (for example, orbital hotels, satellite solar power stations, earth-moon transport node satellites, zero-g manufacturing facilities) will require large masses of materials for construction, shielding, and ballast; and also large quantities of propellant for station-keeping and orbit-change maneuvers, and for fuelling craft departing for lunar or interplanetary destinations. Spectroscopic studies suggest, and 'ground-truth' chemical assays of meteorites confirm, that a

wide range of resources are present in asteroids and comets, including nickel-iron metal, silicate minerals, semiconductor and platinum group metals, water, bituminous hydrocarbons, and trapped or frozen gases including carbon dioxide and ammonia. As one
startling pointer to the unexpected riches in asteroids, many stony and stony-iron meteorites contain Platinum Group Metals at grades of up to 100 ppm (or 100 grams per ton). Operating open pit platinum and gold mines in South Africa and elsewhere mine ores of grade 5 to 10 ppm, so grades of 10 to 20 times higher would be regarded as spectacular if available in quantity, on Earth. Water is an obvious first, and key, potential product from asteroid mines, as it could be used for return trip propulsion via steam rocket. About 10% of Near-Earth Asteroids are energetically more accessible (easier to get to) than the Moon (i.e. under 6 km/s from LEO), and a substantial minority of these have return-to-Earth transfer orbit injection delta-v's of only 1 to 2 km/s. Return

of resources from some of these NEAs to low or high earth orbit may therefore be competitive versus earth-sourced supplies.

9. It will spill over into other commercialization and gain more resources for earth. Crandall et al., MBA and President of Abundant Planet, 2009
(William, Review of United States Human Space Flight Plans Committee, 8 -3, http://abundantplanet.org/files/toAugustineCommittee-2009-08-03.pdf, ldg, DOA: 5-13-11)
What if our next 10 year, $100 billion, space program aimed to deliver more than the four traditional 20 benefits: (1) to explore and boldly go; (2) to earn international prestige and improve national security; (3) to support the careers of American enginee rs; and (4) to inspire the next generation of engineers and scientists to excel in their studies. What

if our next large space program could also deliver $20 to $30 billion worth of platinum group metals (PGMs), the plausible content of a single 500 meter asteroid? 21 The platinum
group metals are increasingly in short supply, and are necessary for todays automotive catalytic converters and for tomorrows clean running hydrogen fuel cells. 22 What if, following that space program, which would teach us a great deal about how to effectively mine asteroids 23the richest sources of high5value metals in the solar system a second, five5year, $50 billion, space program managed to break even, and return $50 billion worth of critically important industrial minerals to Earth? What if, in addition to running yet another space program, the nations civil space agency launched an entirely new ecosystem of self sustaining, space5based industries, with out of this world potentia l for growth?

Once PGMs prime the pump, other asteroid resources including iron, nickel, semiconductors, 24 and volatiles 25 (for fuels)could enable myriad new industries, such as space5based solar power systems 26 that could radically reduce our reliance on fossil fuels and significantly alter the global climate change equation. What if the nations civil space agency unleashed the genius of private enterprise to secure the
United States leadership in space, as presidential candidate, Barack Obama urged? 27 This is the way to resolve the quandary of space development: Make space profitable.

10. Space exploration is inevitable, but US commercialization prevents just space militarization Brown, Rajaratnam School of International Studies masters, 2009
(Trevor, Soft Power and Space Weaponization, Air & Space Power Journal - Spring 2009, http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/apj/apj09/spr09/brown.html, ldg, DOA: 5-4-11)
The most recent space race reflects the changing dynamics of global power. Technonationalism remains the impetus for many nations space programs, particularly in Asia: In contrast to the Cold War space race between the United States and the former Soviet Union, the global competition today is being driven by national pride, newly earned wealth, a growing cadre of highly educated men and women, and the confidence that achievements in space will bring substantial soft power as well as military benefits. The planet-wide eagerness to join the space-

the United States does not necessarily have to choose between civilian and military space programs since much of the technology developed for space is dual use. The space industry provides a tremendous opportunity for militaries that desire more affordable access and space assets that can significantly augment terrestrial forces. As Alfred Thayer Mahan pointed out, Building up a great merchant shipping lays the broad base for the military shipping.36 The US military can maximize its resources, not only financially but also politically, by packaging as much military space activity as possible into commercial space activity. One example involves satellite communications. The
faring club is palpable.34 India and Japan are also aggressively developing their own space programs.35 But arrangement the Pentagon has with Iridium Satellite LLC gives the military unlimited access to its network and allows users to place both secure and nonsecure calls or send and receive text messages almost anywhere in the world.37 Another example involves space imagery. Even though the government must maintain sophisticated imaging capabilities for special situations, it could easily meet the vast majority of its routine requirements at lower cost by obtaining commercially available imagery.38 The Air Force could also use space transportation, another emerging industry, to maximize its resources. Private ventures now under way are reducing the costs of space access considerably. It is possible that one enterprise could become an alternative to Russian Soyuz spacecraft for NASAs missions to the International Space Station.39 Such enterprises could prove attractive, cost-effective options for delivering the Air Forces less-sensitive payloads to Earth orbit. Space tourism, a growing industry, could enable the Air Force to procure affordable capabilities to routinely operate 60 to 90 miles above Earth.40 Advances that entrepreneurs are making in suborbital space flight could eventually evolve to a point where the Air Force would find it far easier, politically as well as financially, to acquire platforms capable of delivering munitions from space. Conclusion A glance at the global strategic situation reveals many nations rushing to develop space capabilities. Ostensibly civilian, the capabilities in development around the world are largely dual use and will have profound effects on the balance of power. The United States, therefore, would be foolish to slow the pace of its own space development. The issue at hand is not whether to proceed with space weapons but how to proceed with these capabilities and effectively manage the security dilemmas that will inevitably arise. By assuming a posture which suggests that its intentions in space are competitive scientific and commercial pursuitsand which does not suggest the desire to barricade the medium in times of peace for the purpose of geopolitical leverage the United States can proceed without causing undue angst in the international community. Once we have laid the foundation for commercial activities (i.e., merchant shipping), military capabilitiesor military shippingwill follow in due course and with far less controversy. If US policy makers can showcase scientific and commercial space endeavors while avoiding the perception of orbital despotism, they can steadily build dominant military space capabilities and retain soft power.

11. Space Commercialization now would hinder a space arms race and other scenarios of war. Dolman, Comparative Military Studies professor, 2010
(Everett, The Case for Weapons in Space: A Geopolitical Assessment, Prepared for the APSA Annual Meeting, September, online pdf, ldg, DOA: 5-4-11)
Placement of weapons in space by the United States would be perceived correctly as an attempt at continuing American hegemony. Although there is obvious opposition to the current international balance of power, the majority of states seem to regard it as at least tolerable. A continuation of the status quo is thus minimally acceptable, even to states working toward its demise. As long as the United States does not employ its power arbitrarily, the situation would be bearable initially and grudgingly accepted over time. Mirror-imaging does not apply here. An attempt by China to dominate space would be part of an effort to break the land-sea-air dominance of the United States in preparation for a new international order. Such an action would challenge the status quo, rather than seek to perpetuate it. This would be disconcerting to nations that accept, no matter how grudgingly, the current international orderincluding the venerable institutions of trade, finance, and law that operate

As leader of the current system, the United States could do no less than engage in a perhaps ruinous space arms race, save graciously decide to step aside and accept a diminished world status. Seizing the initiative and securing low-Earth orbit now, while the United States is dominant in space infrastructure, would do much to stabilize the international system and prevent an arms race in space. The enhanced ability to deny any attempt by another nation to place military assets in space and to readily engage and destroy terrestrial anti-satellite capacity would make the possibility of large-scale space war or military space races less likely, not more. Why would a state expend the effort to compete in space with a superpower that
within itand intolerable to the United States. has the extraordinary advantage of holding securely the highest ground at the top of the gravity well? So long as the controlling state demonstrates a capacity and a will to use force to defend its position, in effect expending a small amount of violence as needed to prevent a greater conflagration in the future, the likelihood of a future war in space is remote. Moreover, if the United States were willing to deploy and use a military space force that maintained effective control of space, and did so in a way that was perceived as tough, non-arbitrary, and efficient, such an action would serve to discourage competing states from fielding opposing systems. It could also set the stage for a new space regime, one that encourages space commerce and development. Should the United States use its advantage to police the heavens and allow unhindered peaceful use of space by any and all nations for economic and scientific development, over time its control of LEO could be viewed as a global public good. In much the same way the British maintained control of the high seas in the nineteenth century, enforcing international norms of innocent passage and property rights, and against slavery, the US could prepare outer space for a long-overdue burst of economic expansion.

12. Without commercializing space it will cause endless wars. Collins et al., Environmental science professor at Azabu University, 2010
(Patrick, What the growth of a space tourism industry could contribute to employment, economic growth, environmental protection, education, culture and world peace, Acta Astronautica 66 (2010) 15531562, ldg, DOA: 5-4-11)
Investment in orbital access and other space infrastructure will facilitate the establishment of settlements on the Moon, Mars, asteroids and in man-made space structures. In the first phase, development of new regulatory infrastructure in various Earth orbits, including property/usufruct rights, real estate, mortgage financing and insurance, traffic management, piloting, policing and other services will enable the population living in Earth orbits to grow very large.Such activities aimed at making near-Earth space habitable are the logical extension of humans' historical spread over the surface of the Earth. As trade spreads through near-Earth space, settlements are sure to follow, of which the inhabitants will add to the wealth of different cultures which humans have created in the many different environments in which they live. The success of such extra-terrestrial settlements will have the additional benefit of reducing the danger of human extinction due to planet-wide or cosmic accidents [20, 26]. These horrors include both man-made disasters such as nuclear war, plagues or climate change, and natural disasters such as super-volcanoes or asteroid impact. It is hard to think of any objective that is more important than preserving peace. Weapons developed in recent decades are so destructive, and have such horrific, long-term side-effects that their use should be discouraged as strongly as possible by the international community. Hence, reducing the incentive to use weapons by rapidly developing the ability to use space-based resources on a large scale is surely equally important [15, 20, 28]. The achievement of this depends on the low space travel costs which, at the present time, appear to be achievable only through the development of a vigorous space tourism industry. SUMMARY As discussed above, if space travel services had started during the 1950s when they first could, the space industry would be enormously more developed than it is today. Hence the failure to develop passenger space travel has seriously distorted the path taken by humans' technological and economic development since WW2, away from the path which would have been followed if capitalism and democracy operated as intended. Technological know-how which could have been used to supply services which are known to be very popular with a large proportion of the general public has not been used for that purpose, while suffering due to the unemployment and

environmental damage caused by the resulting lack of new industries have increased. In response, policies should be implemented urgently to correct this error, and to catch up with the possibilities for industrial and economic growth that have been ignored for so long. This

policy renewal is urgent because of the growing danger of unemployment, economic stagnation, climate change, educational and cultural decline, resource wars and loss of civil liberties which face civilization today. In order to achieve the necessary progress there is a particular need for collaboration between those working in the two fields of civil aviation and civil space. Although the word
"aerospace" is widely used, it is largely a misnomer since these two fields are in practice quite separate. True "aerospace" collaboration to realise passenger space travel will develop the wonderful profusion of possibilities outlined above. Humans' Urgent Choice: Heaven or Hell on Earth?

As discussed above, the claim that resources are running out can be used to justify wars which may never end: present-day rhetoric about "the long war" or "100 years war" in Iraq are current examples. If political leaders do not change their
viewpoint, the recent aggression by the rich, "Anglo-Saxon" countries and their cutting back of traditional civil liberties are ominous for the future. However, this "hellish" vision of endless war is based on an assumption about a single number the future cost of travel to orbit about which a different assumption leads to a literally "heavenly" vision of peace and ever-rising living standards for everyone forever. If this cost stays above 10,000 Euros/kg, where it has been unchanged for nearly 50 years, the prospects for humanity are bleak. But if humans make the necessary effort, and use the tiny amount of resources needed to develop passenger space vehicles, then this cost will fall to 100 Euros/kg, the use of extraterrestrial resources will become economic, and arguments for resource wars will evaporate entirely. This is not a decision for the far future or the 22nd Century. It has to be made very soon if humans are to have a reasonable future. The main reason why this step has not been taken yet seems to be lack of understanding by investors and policy-makers of the myriad opportunities that space travel will create. Now that the potential to catch up half a centurys delay in the growth of space travel is becoming understood, continuing to spend 20 billion Euro equivalents/year on government space activities while continuing to invest nothing in developing passenger space travel would be a gross failure of economic policy, and strongly contrary to the economic and social interests of the public. As this policy error is corrected, and investment in profitable space projects grows rapidly in coming years, we can look forward to a growing world-wide boom. Viewed as a whole, humans' industrial growth has been seriously underperforming for decades, due to the failure to exploit these immensely promising fields of activity. The tens of thousands of unemployed space engineers in Russia, America and Europe alone are a huge waste. The millions of disappointed young people who have been taught that they cannot travel in space are another enormous wasted resource

Contention 3: Rare metals 13. Peak metals now Reuters 2009

(As hybrid cars gobble rare metals, shortage looms, 8 -31, http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/08/31/us-miningtoyota-idUSTRE57U02B20090831, ldg, DOA: 5-13-11)
That makes Toyota's market-leading gasoline-electric hybrid car and other similar vehicles vulnerable to a supply crunch predicted by experts China, the world's dominant rare earths producer, limits exports while global

as

demand swells. Worldwide demand for rare earths, covering 15 entries on the periodic table of elements, is expected to exceed supply by some 40,000
tonnes annually in several years unless major new production sources are developed. One promising U.S. source is a rare earths mine slated to reopen in California by 2012. Among the rare earths that would be most affected in a shortage is neodymium, the key component of an alloy used to make the high-power, lightweight magnets for electric motors of hybrid cars, such as the Prius, Honda Insight and Ford Focus, as well as in generators for wind turbines. Close cousins terbium and dysprosium are added in smaller amounts to the alloy to preserve neodymium's magnetic properties at high temperatures. Yet another rare

earth metal, lanthanum, is a major ingredient for hybrid car batteries. Production of both hybrids cars and wind turbines is expected to climb sharply amid the clamor for cleaner transportation and energy alternatives that reduce dependence on fossil fuels blamed for global climate change. Toyota has 70 percent of the U.S. market for vehicles powered by a combination of an internalcombustion engine and electric motor. The Prius is its No. 1 hybrid seller. Jack Lifton, an independent commodities consultant and strategic metals expert, calls the Prius "the biggest user of rare earths of any object in the world." Each electric Prius motor requires 1 kilogram (2.2 lb) of neodymium, and each battery uses 10 to 15 kg (22-33 lb) of lanthanum. That number will nearly double under Toyota's plans to boost the car's fuel economy, he said. Toyota plans to sell 100,000 Prius cars in the United States alone for 2009, and 180,000 next year. The company forecasts

sales of 1 million units per year starting in 2010. As China's industries begin to consume most of its own rare earth production, Toyota and other companies are seeking to secure reliable reserves for themselves.

14. Rare earth shortage hurts clean tech. UNEP 2011

(United Nations Environment Programme, Green Economy Vulnerable to Rare Earth Minerals Shortages, 1 -31, http://na.unep.net/geas/science/alert_2011_01.php, ldg, DOA: 5-13-11)
Rare earth elements are actually not rare since they are found in many countries, including Argentina, Australia, Canada, India, China, Chile and the U.S (Table 1). But they are difficult to extract in volumes that are lucrative (at which point they are called rare earth minerals), so production has become concentrated in certain places. In 2010, more than 97 per cent of rare earth minerals came from China, which holds 37 per cent of known reserves; by comparison, the United States holds 13 per cent of the world's reserves but it presently does not contribute to global

Recently, China consolidated its rare earth industry and reduced its production and export quotas in an attempt to retain more of these minerals for domestic use as well as to regulate the sector and clean up the industry, which creates air and water emissions
production (Sandalow 2010). Table 1 provides production and reserve amounts by country for 2009. and seepage from tailing ponds, and has social impacts on local villagers in rare earth mining areas. The Chinese government announced that in the first half of 2011, it will cut its export quotas for rare earth minerals by more than 11 per cent (China Daily 2010), which will further reduce the supply of REEs needed in other countries for high-tech products. Supplies of REEs are becoming constrained at the same time as demand grows. In 2010, worldwide demand for the critical minerals was 125 000 tonnes and it is expected to rise to 225 000 tonness by 2015 (Bourzac 2010). As a result, countries such as Argentina, Australia and the U.S. are now considering opening or reopening rare earth mines. Opening new mines will help to ease the rare earth shortage problem, but it will require significant investment, especially to prevent the important environmental impacts of extraction and production, and it can take years before new sources produce sizeable yields (US DoE 2010). Some governments have taken swift action to begin to address potential shortages. In the United States, for example, several bills have been introduced in the House of Representatives to address the issue and the Department of Energy released a strategy to fill gaps in knowledge about critical materials and to define actions to overcome risks, including diversifying the global rare earth supply chain, developing substitute materials and technologies, and seeking ways to recycle, increase efficiency in use, and reuse rare earth minerals (US DoE 2010). Japanese companies have started signing deals with India for supply of Rare Earth Minerals. The Times of India reported on 9 December 2010 that Toyota Tsusho Corp, the trading company part-owned by Toyota Motor Corp, will build a rare earth processing plant in India to secure supply sources outside China.

Near-term worldwide shortages of REEs used in renewable and energy-efficient technologies, such as wind turbines, solar cells, plug-in electric vehicles, and energy-efficient lighting is an emerging issue that may well affect the development of clean energy technologies and the growth of Green Economy. Any restriction in the production
and supply of these rare earth elements could have serious consequences for the worlds transition to a clean energy supply and would affect the global economy since the technologies are important in helping create jobs, promoting economic growth, and fighting climate change.

15. US transitioning to green tech sends a key signal that sparks global activity. Roberts, regular contributor to Harpers Magazine, 2004
(Paul, The End of Oil: On the Edge of a Perilous New World, pg 325 -26, ldg, DOA: 5-13-11)

new US energy policy would send a powerful message to the rest of the players in the global energy economy. Just as a carbon tax would signal the markets that a new competition had begun, so a progressive aggressive American energy policy would give a warning to international businesses, many of which now regard the United States as a lucrative dumping ground for older high carbon technology. It would signal energy producers,
Politically, a

companies and states, that they would need to start making investments for a new energy business, with differing demands and product requirements. Above all, a progressive energy policy would not only show trade partners in Japan and Europe that the United States is serious about climate but would give the United States the leverage it needs to force much-needed changes in the Kyoto treaty. With
and a serious

a carbon program

commitment to improve efficiency and develop clean-energy technologies, says one US climate

expert, the United States could really shape a global climate policy. We could basically say to Europe, here is an Americ an answer to climate that is far better than Kyoto. Here are the practical steps were going to take to reduce emissions, far more effectively than your

the United States would finally have the moral credibility to win promises of cooperation from India and China. As James Mackenzie, the former White House energy analyst who now
cockamamie Kyoto protocol. Similarly, works on climate issues for the Washington-based World Resources Institute, told me,, Chinese climate researchers and policymakers know precisely what China must do to begin to deal with emissions but have thus far been able to use US intransigence as an excuse for their own inaction. Whenever you bring up the question of what the Chinese should be doing about climate, they just smile. They ask, Why should we in China listen to the United States and take all these steps to protect the climate, when the United States wont take the same steps itself?

Cross apply 1AC 3 which is Robertson 9 about how warming will soon reach a tipping point. 16. Rare earth metals are independently key to hegemony

Coppel, graduate student in the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University, 2011
(Emily, Rare Earth Metals and U.S. National Security, 2 -1, http://americansecurityproject.org/wpcontent/uploads/2011/02/Rare-Earth-Metals-and-US-Security-FINAL.pdf, ldg, DOA: 5-13-11)
Military: The United States reliance on technology, particularly for military applications, is the biggest cause for concern . Although the Pentagon

the U.S. is completely reliant on China for the production of some of its most powerful weapons. Peter Leiter, a former trade advisor at the Department of Defense, echoed this concern when he stated, The Pentagon has been incredibly negligentthere are plenty of early warning signs that China will use its leverage over these materials as a weapon. 6 Even commercial uses of rare earth metals, such as cell phones and laptops, have military applications and are critical to operating current military platforms. Yet top U.S.
claims that the U.S. only uses 5% of the worlds supply of rare earth metals for defense purposes, 5 the fact is that defense officials are unaware of just how dependent they are on rare earths. According to a U.S. National Defense Stockpile report, [U.S.] defense leaders do not necessarily know exactly which minerals they use in which systems in what amounts, [and] where the minerals came from 7 Likewise, the U.S. does not track rare earth metals in its weapons systems or platforms. 8 A shortage

of rare earths will affect the strength and readiness of the U.S. military until current systems are no longer in operation. However, it will also affect future production: newer systems rely just as much, if not more, on computers and other electronic
equipment. The U.S. is developing itself into greater dependence on rare earth metals.

17. Plan solves rare earth metals-they are abundant in space. Crandall et al., MBA and President of Abundant Planet, 2009
(public benefit, 501(c)3, California corporation, Asteroid Mining: Economic and Ecological Motivations, 2 -17, http://www.abundantplanet.org/asteroid-mining-economic-and-ecological-motivations-2009-02-17, ldg, DOA: 5-1311)

The economic argument for asteroid mining is straightforward. There is substantial demand for several metals that asteroids can supply. Rudimentary versions of the production technologies that can link extraterrestrial
supply with terrestrial demand have been developed and deployed. (The Hayabusa is due to return mineral samples from near-Earth asteroid 25143 Itokawa in 2010.) The costs to advance these production technologies are dropping, due to ongoing progress in computing systems and autonomous robotics and to the rise of commercial space flight. Environmentally,

it makes more sense to grind up a lifeless asteroid than a living mountain to secure useful metals. In addition, by a fluke of celestial evolution, many
asteroids are particularly rich in the platinum group metals (PGMs), which are required for the automotive catalytic converters of today and the clean burning hydrogen fuel cells of tomorrow. The

platinum group metals available at the Earths surface are quite limited. PGMs top the list of most critical minerals in a recent report from the National Academy of Sciences.
More than three-quarters of the worlds supply of platinumand more than 85% of the rhodiumcomes from a single geological feature, the Bushveld igneous complex, in South Africa. Prices for platinum and rhodium reached record highs earlier this year, driven by market demand for industrial uses coupled with investor demand for platinum-based exchange traded funds (ETFs). Over the next few decades, demand is expected to outstrip supply, according to researchers in the U.S., Japan, and The Netherlands. Their econometric models show that terrestrial reserves of platinum could be exhausted by mid-century. The two near-Earth asteroid rendezvous missions that have been launched the NEAR mission to 433 Eros, and the Hayabusa missioncost less than $200,000 each. The first demonstration asteroid mining mission may cost a billion dollars, roughly equivalent to a single Space Shuttle flight. But

the potential return value of a single 500-meter asteroid is in the tens of billions of dollarsfor the platinum group metals alone. After the PGMs are extracted, tons of iron,
nickel, and other useful materials will remain that can be used to build structures in space, such as space-based solar power systems, that may in time allow us to establish ourselves as a space-faring civilization (Peter Diamandis 2008). Mining efforts that return a tiny fraction of unprocessed asteroid material for laboratory study could also lead to significant advances in our understanding of the galaxy and the early solar system. More than 5,000 near-Earth asteroids have already been detected. More than 10% of these are easier to reach than the moon. New telescopes (such as Pan-STARRS and the LSST) are expected to detect more than 500,000 NEAs over the next 15 years, according to a new report from the Association of Space Explorers. This report, which will be presented to the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space in February 2009, focuses on mitigating the threat of an asteroid impact. Near-Earth asteroids present a mixed blessing: They

are potentially the most dangerous of celestial objects and simultaneously the most accessible sources of new wealth in the solar system.

18. China is going to run out Business Insider 2010

(China's Rare Earth Supply That The World Relies On Could Now Run Out In Just 15 Years, 10-16, http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2608806/posts, ldg, DOA: 5-13-11)

Most of the world is dependent on China to supply rare earths as key raw materials used in many of the latest technologies from military hardware to electric cars, but China's Ministry of Commerce is warning that its massive supply of rare earths could be exhausted in just 15 - 20 years. The current rate of production and global consumption
is just too large for China. Bloomberg: China, controller of more than 90 percent of production of the materials used in cell phones and radar, cut its export quotas by 72 percent for the second half and reduced output, spurring a trade dispute with the U.S. The country may not be able to meet growing global demand as the government continues to curb output , Lynas Corp. said in March. We cannot rule out the possibility that China may need to rely on imports sometime in the future for these minerals, instead of supplying the world, Chao said.

19. These are Key to the economy and worth tons. Coppel, graduate student in the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University, 2011
(Emily, Rare Earth Metals and U.S. National Security, 2-1, http://americansecurityproject.org/wpcontent/uploads/2011/02/Rare-Earth-Metals-and-US-Security-FINAL.pdf, ldg, DOA: 5-13-11) Economic: The U.S. helped guarantee Chinas position at the top of the rare earths market when it removed American mining and production capabilities. With the closure of the Mountain Pass mine and the sale of domestic production facilities, the U.S. became almost completely import-dependent for its supply of

rare earth metals. Chinas near-monopoly of the rare earths market has allowed it to manipulate this market by restricting production, using export quotas
to limit global supply, and increasing taxes on rare earth metals. Recently, China blocked exports of rare earths to Japan in retaliation for the Japanese detainment of a Chinese fishing vessel and its captain. The embargo was rumored to have expanded to the U.S. and EU. 9 The Organization

for Economic Cooperation and Development has estimated that non-Chinese producers pay at least 31% more for raw rare earth metals than Chinese producers. 10 As a result, a black market in rare earths has developed. Fully one-third of all rare earths leaving China are smuggled out. 11 Such market distortions cause the U.S. to pay more for weapons systems and platforms a big concern during the current economic crisis and tightening defense budgets.