Hypothesis Test Report-Single Sample Z-test Example: A research meteorologist has been studying wind patterns over the

Pacific Ocean. Based on these studies a new route is proposed for commercial airlines going from San Francisco to Honolulu. The new route is intended to take advantage of existing wind patterns to reduce flying time. It is known that for the old route the distribution of flying times for a large four-engine jet has a mean =5.25 hours with = 0.60 . Twenty-five flights on the new route have yielded a mean flying time of x =5.1 hours. Does this indicate that the average flying time for the new route is less than that of the old route? Use = 0.05 . 0. Identify the parameter of interest. State the hypotheses of interest. 1. Null hypothesis: Statement of strict equality about a population parameter. This statement represents the status quo or what was believed to be true in the past.

H o : = 5.25 hours
2. Alternative hypothesis: Statement of strict inequality about a population parameter. This is the research hypothesis. It can take one of three forms. Only one of the following three alternatives will be appropriate in any situation.

1. H A : > o

2. H A : < o

3. H A : o

( upper tailed )

H A : > 5.25

( lower tailed )

H A : < 5.25

( lower tailed )

H A : 5.25

3. State assumptions. The data collected came from a normally distributed population with known population standard deviation.

4. Test Statistic and its distribution.

X 5.25 H o Zo = ~ N (0,1) or for our example Z o = ~ N (0,1) 0.60 n 25

Ho

X o

The test statistic follows a standard normal distribution if the null hypothesis is true. 5. Rejection Region

If H A : < o

( lower tailed )

Re ject H o if Z o < z
Using = 0.05 , draw the appropriate rejection region.

6. Perform Experiment and Check Assumptions.

Distributions flight time
Normal Quantile Plot
3
.99

Quantiles
100.0% maximum 99.5% 97.5% 90.0% 75.0% quartile 50.0% median 25.0% quartile 10.0% 2.5% 0.5% 0.0% minimum 6.5300 6.5300 6.5300 5.7044 5.5057 5.1459 4.6812 4.2671 4.0782 4.0782 4.0782

Moments
Mean Std Dev Std Err Mean upper 95% Mean low er 95% Mean N 5.1008313 0.5718734 0.1143747 5.336889 4.8647736 25

2
.95 .90

1
.75 .50 .25

0 -1

.10 .05

-2
.01

-3

4.5

5.5

6.5

7. Analyze the data by computing zo and finding the p-value.

Since H A : < o the p value = P ( X 5.10 == 5 ) P ( Z z0 )

The p-value is ______________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________________. Decision Rule: If p-value is less than , reject H o .

For our example,

zo =
and p val = so we would

8. Conclusion. State your conclusion in terms of the problem.

9. Confidence Interval

If H A : < o then use upper limit: X + z

. For our example, the confidence limit is

Hypotheses Testing : Types of errors Ho is True Ho is False

Reject Ho Fail to Reject Ho

For our example involving the mean flight time, a Type I error would be what?

For our example involving the mean concentration of a Type II error would what?

The probabilities associated with the errors: P(Type I Error) = P( Rejecting Ho when Ho is true) P(Type II Error) = P( Failing to Reject Ho when Ho is false)

We preset and use it to determine our Rejection Region and the decision rule involving the p-value. This allows us to control the probability of a Type I error. The value is sometimes called the level of significance of the test.

, the probability of Type II error is more difficult to control. It depends on 3 things.

1. It depends on . The probabilities and are inversely related meaning as

, and vice versa.

2. It depends on the true value of the parameter, i.e. a specific point in Ha. The further away the point is from the hypothesized value, the less likely we are to commit a Type II error. So for our example as the specific point in Ha, say a gets further from 5.25 the smaller will be. In particular the probability of type II error is larger if the true mean =5.1 than if the true mean is =5.0.

3. It depends on the sample size n. As n ,

for a fixed and specified point in Ha.

The power of the test: Power= 1-

Compute the probability of type II error when =5.0.

Compute the sample size needed for = = 0.05 when =5.0.