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• FCF and CROIC are close. 10.9% and 9.4% respectively.
This scenario occurs when a company has matured
without much growth to be expected.
• Excellent margins and very stable returns in both the
2001 and 2008 recession
• Not over leveraged
• Plenty of FCF to cover debt
• Big decrease in tangible shareholders equity since 2005
• Intangibles more than double in 2007
Summary
Some obvious Buffett stock picks in this list while several seem
to have been by other managers.
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Took quite a while to get this all together but I hope you are • Debt level has been the same past few years
getting some ideas as well how I quickly look at companies to
• 8c from every dollar of sales converts down to the bottom
filter what I deem to be the good from the bad.
line
• Good margins prove the business can make money
Warren Buffett Stock Picks: during a hard recession
Part 2 • Regression of earnings compared over multiple
By Jae Jun on August 25th, 2009 timeframes is flat meaning that growth is coming from
other than organic business. Shown by the goodwill
Warren Buffett Stocks: Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3 | Part 4 balance which I also discussed in the previous ETN stock
valuation.
Following on from the first part of Berkshire’s Stock Portfolio
Intrinsic Value Estimate
covering the first 10 stocks, let’s go through the next 10.
Current Price: $55.06
With each DCF valuation and Ben Graham formula, cyclical
downturns are adjusted slightly so as not to overly depress the DCF Stock Value: $76.42
intrinsic value, especially due to 2008. Graham Stock Value:
Since a stock valuation deals with what you believe the future
• 0% growth = $52.65
will bring based on the past and current information, if the
current year is a catastrophe which isn’t likely to be replicated • 7% growth = $134.53
year over year, it is best to adjust the values to a more “normal”
situation. Competitor and Peer Comparison: Fairly valued
3. Aerospace - intelligent truck drivetrain systems for • Amazing CROIC despite performance. Excellent
safety and fuel economy management
4. Automotive - automotive engine air management • Business operations can generate FCF
systems, powertrain solutions and specialty controls for • Declining capex
performance, fuel economy and safety.
Intrinsic Value Estimate
• Looking back at my previous ETN stock analysis, looks
Current Price: $8.17
like my assumptions were over conservative.
DCF Stock Value: $30.47 @ 0% growth
• CROIC has been amazing past 10 years. Management is
doing a great job of using its cash. Graham Stock Value:
• Plenty of FCF
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• 0% growth = $33.21 Competitor and Peer Comparison: $32
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Lowe’s (LOW) Valuation Warren Buffett Stock Holdings : 21-30
Another home improvement retailer.
• M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) - outside circle of
Buffett hasn’t backed down from buying the number 1 and competence
2 company in an industry. He doesn’t believe that you
should only buy one company from an industry for portfolio
• Moody’s (MCO) - - outside circle of competence
diversification purposes.
• NRG Energy (NRG)
• Better growth opportunity that Home Depot
• Nalco Holding (NLC)
• Good FCF growth but CROIC is very low at 2%. Better
• Nike (NKE)
than nothing but not effective with utilizing capital.
• Norfolk Southern Corp (NSC)
• Good revenue and earnings growth
• Procter & Gamble (PG)
• Gross margins increasing to date
• Sanofi Aventis (SNY)
• Debt down to average levels
• Sun Trusts Banks Inc. (STI) - outside circle of
• Tangible book value increasing
competence
• ROE and ROA declining past 2 years
• Torchmark Corp (TMK) - outside circle of competence
• Sales flat since 2007
• The macro idea that people will continue to repair and NRG Energy (NRG)
improve houses still doesn’t work well in a recession. Wholesale power generation company. Owns more than 189
• If I had to choose LOW or HD, I would go for LOW. Or active operating generation units at 48 power generation
be like Buffett and get both. plants.
DCF Stock Value: $18.91 • Increase in short term and long term debt
Graham Stock Value: $52.66 • Company is able to make money but its returns are ont
he low side.
Competitor and Peer Comparison: $22
• Mean ROA and CROIC of 2.7% and 5% respectively.
Lower than competition
• FCF isn’t consistent.
• Huge increase in capex in 2008
• Large amount of taxes deferred.
• Still converts 12% of sales into FCF
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• Low returns, cash and earnings growth • Debt can be handled with FCF rather than taking on
additional debt
• Doesn’t look like something Buffett would buy
Intrinsic Value Estimate
Intrinsic Value Estimate
FCF growth is at 22.8% but if you look at how the value of the
Numbers aren’t reliable enough for a proper valuation.
company has tracked the share price over the past 5-7 years,
Current Price: $17.52 the company has been growing at the rate of its CROIC. i.e. the
DCF Stock Value: N/A cash returns of its invested capital.
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Up till now, I’ve taken a look at the holdings of Buffett, valued
each one according to my methods based on free cash flow
and DCF valuation, Benjamin Graham’s formula and a simple
multiples method.
In this final section of Buffett’s 2009 stock picks, I’ll go
through what I know, pass on the usual financials i.e.
US Bancorp, Wells Fargo and Wesco Financial, and then
summarize all 41 picks and their valuations again.
Regarding Wesco, I remember vaguely reading in Munger’s
book, Poor Charlie’s Almanack, that he doesn’t expect much
appreciation in the stock. So if Munger says that about his own
company, then that’s enough for me to believe him and move
PG Intrinsic Value on to better value stock opportunities.
• Huge moat.
• Stock price affected by high oil price.
• Reducing capex past 2 years. How will it affect future
results?
• Past 5 years hasn’t been great for UPS. Went no where.
• Good stable CROIC at 11%
• Earnings YOY isn’t good. Shows a decline.
• Margins are good but there are huge overhead costs as
expected. 75+% gross margin but only 6-9% net margin.
Wal-Mart (WMT)
• Big rise in debt King of retail.
• Still better than FDX
• FCF doubled compared to past year. Highest its ever
Intrinsic Value Estimate been.
Stability and predictability makes it easy to value. • No change in margins. WMT doesn’t need to lower
margins.
Current Price: $55.43
• Highest inventory turnover rate ever in 10 years at 8.9
DCF Stock Value: $52.72 @ 15% growth and 9% discount rate
(although COST has better turnover)
Graham Stock Value: $85 - $90 @ 13% growth
• Tangible book value consistently up.
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• Good top line and bottom line growth.
• Rock solid.
Wellpoint (WLP)
Healthcare company.
• $240 @ 0% growth
• $492 @ 5% growth
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