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The chart pack January 14
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Executive summary
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India: real growth and economy wide prices
12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2
GDP IPD
Sources: Westpac Economics, CEIC.
Sep-13
Real GDP
10
11
12
fearful symmetry
Indian business confidence & nominal GDP
220 index
Sources: CEIC, Westpac Economics. * Smoothed.
%yr
25
200
180 160 140 120 100
23
21 19 17 15 13 11
D&B business confidence (lhs)
Nominal GDP (lhs)
9 7 5
80 Sep-02
Sep-04
Sep-06
Sep-08
Sep-10
Sep-12
Sep-14
4
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Indian industrial output
30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5
Sources: CEIC, Westpac Economics. 3mma.
%yr
Total (lhs) Infrastructure industries (lhs) Capital goods (rhs) Consumer durables (lhs)
%yr
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20
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Infrastructure related industries: output
30 20 10 %yr
Sources: CEIC, Westpac Economics. 3mma.
%yr
30 20 10
0
-10 Infrastructure index Steel Power
0
-10
-20 Jan-01
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Infrastructure related industries: output
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10
Sources: CEIC, Westpac Economics. 3mma.
%yr
Infrastructure index Steel Coal Cement Power
%yr
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10
-20 Jan-01
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Indian industrial output & non-oil imports
%yr 70 60 50 40 30
Sources: CEIC, Westpac Economics. 3mma.
%yr 70 60 50 40 30
20
10 0 -10 -20
Total IP
Capital goods Consumer durables
20
10 0 -10 -20
-30 Jan-01
Non-oil imports
Jan-03
Jan-05
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Autos sales by type
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10
Total (lhs) Passenger cars (lhs, 13%) Two wheelers (lhs, 75%) Exports, total (lhs, 13%) Commercial vehicles (rhs, 4%)
%yr
Sources: CEIC, Westpac Economics. Rounded share of unit sales in parentheses. Other (principally 3 wheelers) accounts for 8%. Note exports and other sales segments overlap.
%yr
-20
-30 Jan-04
-50
Jan-10 Jan-12 -75 Jan-14
9
Jan-06
Jan-08
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Urban & rural household consumption shares
60
50 40
37
%
Cereals Fruit & veg Non food 46 Proteins & oils Other food 59
60
50 40 30
45
30
24 21 16 10 19 14 21 16 12 11
20
10 0
20
6
10
10 0
Rural 1994
Rural 2010
Urban 1994
Urban 2010
10
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Indias manufacturing PMI
75 index ratio 1.5
70
65 60 55 50 45 40 35 Jan-05
Production (lhs) Headline (lhs) Orders to inventories (rhs)
Sources: Markit.
1.4
1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13
11
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Indias manufacturing PMI: selected detail
60 index
Sources: Markit.
ratio
1.5
1.4
1.3 1.2
55
50
1.1 1.0
45
40 Jan-05
Jan-07
Jan-09
12
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India: services sector PMI
65 60 55 50
Business activity
index
index
65 60 55 50 45
45
Sources: CEIC, Markit.
New business
40 Dec-05
13
fearful symmetry
Indias formal labour market
59 57 55 53 51 49
Sources: CEIC, Markit. Job indexes from the PMI surveys.
index
Manufacturing Services Composite
index
59 57 55 53 51 49 47
47 Jan-05
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
14
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Indian residential property prices
300
250
Kolkata Mumbai
index
All India Delhi Bangalore
index
300
250 200
200
150
100
150
100 50
50 Jun-03
Jun-05
Jun-07
Jun-09
Jun-11
Jun-13
15
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Indian central business district rental rates
500
450
Delhi R per sq foot
Sources: CEIC, Colliers.
R per sq foot
500
450 400
400
Mumbai
Sep-08
Mar-10
Sep-11
Mar-13
16
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Various price measures & economic growth
20 16 12 8 4 0
Sources: CEIC, Westpac Economics.
%yr
GDP deflator Real secondary output Real non-farm GDP Industrial workers CPI WPI
%yr
20 16 12 8 4 0 -4
-4 Jun-97
Jun-00
Jun-03
Jun-06
Jun-09
Jun-12
17
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Indian activity: farm, non-farm & total
12 9 6 3 0 -3 -6 -9 Mar-99 Mar-02 Mar-05
Farm GDP (lhs) Non-farm GDP (rhs) Total GDP (rhs)
% annual avg
Sources: CEIC, Westpac Economics.
% annual avg
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
Mar-08
Mar-11
Mar-14
18
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Indian GDP: real & nominal estimates
25
20 15 10 5 0
Sources: CEIC, Westpac Economics.
%
Deflator %yr Real %yr Nominal %yr
25
20 15 10 5 0
19
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Indian GDP by industry
20 15 10 5 0
Sources: CEIC, Westpac Economics.
%yr
Construction Trade, transport & communications Manufacturing Finance, property & business services
%yr
20 15 10 5 0 -5
-5 Mar-98
Mar-01
Mar-04
Mar-07
Mar-10
Mar-13
20
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Contributions to growth: analytical split
12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 Jun-97 Jun-00 Jun-03
Other Interest rate sensitive Primary
ppt
Sources: CEIC, Westpac. Contribution to year-ended rate.
ppt
12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4
Jun-06
Jun-09
Jun-12
21
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Contributions to growth in value added
12 10 8 6 ppt
Other services Trade, transport & communications Manufacturing Finance, property & business services Construction & utilities Primary
ppt
12 10 8 6
4
2 0 -2 Jun-05
Sources: CEIC, Westpac. Contribution to year-ended rate.
4
2 0 -2 Jun-09 Jun-11 Jun-13
22
Jun-07
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Indian GDP by expenditure
15 12 9 6 5 3 0 -3 Jun-05 0 -5 -10 Jun-07 Jun-09 Jun-11 Jun-13
23
%yr
Sources: CEIC, Westpac Economics. * Smoothed.
%yr
Private consumption (lhs) Public consumption* (rhs) Fixed investment (rhs) Non-farm GDP (lhs)
25
20
15 10
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Indian GDP by expenditure
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 Jun-05Jun-06Jun-07Jun-08Jun-09Jun-10Jun-11Jun-12Jun-13 %yr
Sources: CEIC, Westpac Economics.
%yr
Public consumption Imports Exports
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20
24
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Contributions to monthly WPI inflation
ppt 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5
Sources: CEIC, Westpac. 3 month averages.
0.0
-0.5 -1.0 -1.5 Jan-05
Other Energy Food- primary Food - manuf Non-food manuf Total
0.0
-0.5 -1.0 -1.5 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13
25
Jan-07
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Indian wholesale inflation
%yr %yr
25 20
15 10 5 0 -5
25 20
15 10 5 0
-5 -10
-10 Apr-05
Apr-07
Apr-09
Apr-11
Apr-13
26
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Wholesale price inflation: various measures
18
15 12 9 6 3 0 -3
%6mth ann.
ETMs (lhs) Non-food manufacturing (lhs) Protein basket (rhs)
%6mth ann.
45
36 27 18 9 0 -9
-6
-18 -27
-9 Apr-05
Apr-07
Apr-09
Apr-11
Apr-13
27
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Wholesale inflation: non-food manufactures
18 15 12 9 6 3 0 -3
%yr %3mth ann. %6mth ann.
Sources: CEIC, Westpac Economics.
%chg
%chg
18 15 12 9 6 3 0 -3
-6
-9 Apr-05
-6
-9
Apr-07
Apr-09
Apr-11
Apr-13
28
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Wholesale price inflation: selected measures
18
15 12 9 6 3 0 -3 %chg
ETMs %yr ETMs 6mth ann.
%chg
Non-food manuf. %yr Non-food manuf. 6mth ann.
18
15 12 9 6 3 0 -3
-6
-9 Apr-05
-6
-9
Apr-07
Apr-09
Apr-11
Apr-13
29
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Demand side inflation: protein & ETMs
50
40 30 20 10 0
Sources: CEIC, Westpac Economics.
%chg
Protein basket %yr (lhs) ETMs %yr (rhs)
%chg
Protein basket %6mth ann. (lhs) ETMs %6mth ann. (rhs)
10
8 6 4 2 0 -2
-10 Apr-05
Apr-07
Apr-09
Apr-11
Apr-13
30
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Indian inflation: protein rich food basket
50 40 30 20 10 0
Sources: CEIC, Westpac Economics.
%chg
%yr %3mth annualised %6mth annualised
%chg
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10
-10 Apr-05
Apr-07
Apr-09
Apr-11
Apr-13
31
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Inflation indicators from the business surveys
40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 Jun-05
Selling prices (RBI, lhs) Capacity utilisation (RBI, lhs) Profit margins (RBI, lhs) Selling prices (Dun & Bradstreet, rhs) Sources: CEIC, Westpac Economics.
Net bal.
Net bal.
60 45 30 15 0 -15 -30
Jun-07
Jun-09
Jun-11
Jun-13
32
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Indias foreign trade
100 80 60 40 %yr %yr
Sources: CEIC, Westpac. Underlying data in USDs, smoothed.
100 80 60 40
20
0 -20 -40 Jan-04
Exports Oil imports Non-oil imports
20
0 -20 -40 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14
33
fearful symmetry
Indian export growth
120 %yr
Sources: CEIC, Westpac. Underlying data in USDs.
%yr
120
100
80 60 40 20 0 -20
100
80 60 40 20 0
-40 Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
34
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Oil prices in INR terms
100 75 50 25 0 -25
Sources: CEIC, Westpac Economics. 3mma.
%yr
Fateh Brent
%yr
-50 Jan-01
Jan-03
Jan-05
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
35
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The gold price in INR and USD terms
%yr 80 70 USD 60 INR 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 Sources: CEIC, Westpac Economics. 3mma. -20 -30 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 %yr 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
36
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Indias goods & services trade balance
45 30 15 0 -15 -30 -45 -60 -75 Dec-02
Other invisibles Services Oil Other merchandise Gold
USDbn
Sources: CEIC, Westpac Economics
USDbn
Dec-05
Dec-08
Dec-11
37
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Decomposing changes in the real rupee
20
15 10 5 ppt ppt
20
15 10 5
0
-5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 Jan-96
Relative price level Nominal exchange rate Real exchange rate USD/INR
0
-5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 Jan-99 Jan-02 Jan-05 Jan-08 Jan-11
38
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The rupee against the major currencies
160 150
140 130 120 110 100
Sources: CEIC, Westpac Economics. Indices based at January 1, 2011.
index
USD EUR JPY GBP
Foreign currency strengthens
index
160 150
140 130 120 110 100 90
90 Jan-11
Jul-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
May-13
Nov-13
39
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The rupee and Mumbai interbank rates
160 150
140 130 120 110 100 90 Jan-11
Sources: CEIC, Westpac Economics. USD/INR index based at January 1, 2011.
index
INR per USD (lhs) Overnight mid (rhs) 3mth mid (rhs)
%pa
12 11
10 9 8 7 6 5
Jul-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
May-13
Nov-13
40
fearful symmetry
USD/INR versus stagflation proxy*
70
INR
USD/INR (lhs)
ratio
PMI based stagflation* (rhs, inverted)
66
62 58 54 50 46 42 38 Apr-06
1.2
1.3
Jul-07
Oct-08
Jan-10
Apr-11
Jul-12
Oct-13
41
41
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Gross portfolio liabilities & FX reserves
% of GDP
India Philippines
21 31 14
Indonesia
FX reserves
Malaysia
41
China 48 58 Thailand
Sources: CEIC, IMF, Westpac.
42
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Investment share of GDP: then and now
50 45
Investment % GDP
Sources: IMF, Westpac Economics.
1996 2012
40
35 30 25 20 15 10
India Indonesia Korea Taiwan Thailand Malaysia Philippines Singapore Hong Kong China Japan
43
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Current account balances: then and now
20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 1996 2012
CA % GDP
Sources: IMF, Westpac Economics.
India
Indonesia
Korea
Taiwan
Thailand
China
Japan
44
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Net foreign portfolio inflows by type: weekly
250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100
Net debt Net equity Total
RBI cuts by 50bps ECB OMTs announced FDI law passed QE Taper rumours Actual taper
Rbn
Mukherjee LTRO #2 wins Presidential Election Rise in P. Chidambaram debt new Finance quotas Minister Mukherjees Budget Kelkar Committee Report Big Bang Friday Obama Re-election & Fiscal cliff concerns
Sources: CEIC, Westpac Economics. Rolling weekly totals.
Rbn
P. Chidambarams Budget Rajan new RBI Governor No Taper, then RBI hike(s)
-150 Jan-12
Jun-12
Dec-12
May-13
Nov-13
45
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Cumulative net foreign inflows by type
7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Net debt Net equity
Rbn
Sources: CEIC, Westpac Economics.
Rbn
46
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Non-resident holdings of EM government debt*
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
% of total
Sources: IMF, Westpac Economics. *General government debt outstanding.
IDR JOR KZK LAT LITH MYR MEX MOR PER POL ROM RUS ZAR THB TKL UKR
47
fearful symmetry
Net foreign portfolio inflows by type
400 300 200 100 Rbn
Net debt Net equity Total
Rbn
0
-100 -200 -300 -400
Sources: CEIC, Westpac Economics.
0
-100 -200 -300 -400 Jan-10 Jan-12 -500 Jan-14
-500 Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
48
fearful symmetry
Investment, savings, FDI & the twin deficits
42 CEIC, 40 Sources: Westpac Economics. 38 36 34 32 Investment 30 4 Current Account 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 Mar-05 Mar-07 %GDP %GDP 42 40 38 36 34 32 30 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10
Savings
Revenue deficit
Mar-09
Mar-11
Mar-13
49
fearful symmetry
Foreign capital inflow & domestic investment
60 %yr
Other (mainly loans) Portfolio investment Direct investment Capital goods output (lhs) Basic balance
Global boom QE era
%GDP
40
20
0
Sources: CEIC, Westpac Economics. Four quarter sums ex capital goods output.
-20 -3 Jun-98 Jun-00 Jun-02 Jun-04 Jun-06 Jun-08 Jun-10 Jun-12 Jun-14
50
fearful symmetry
Foreign bank claims on India
350 300 250 $USbn
US (22%) UK (25%) Japan (6%) Europe (47%)
Change over the year (rhs)
$USbn
200
150 100 50
51
fearful symmetry
Foreign bank claims on India
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30
Sources: BIS, Westpac. Shares of total outstanding as of Dec-2010 in parentheses.
$USbn
US (22%) UK (25%) Japan (6%) Europe (47%)
$USbn
Change over 6 months
Total
52
fearful symmetry
Foreign bank claims: South & South-east Asia
200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20
Sources: BIS, Westpac. Total outstanding indexed to Sep-08.
index
Malaysia Philippines Indonesia Thailand India
index
53
fearful symmetry
Foreign direct investment inflows by sector
Other, 16.3
54
fearful symmetry
RBI credit to the banking system
450
400 350 300 250 200 150 100 55
R bn
Sources: CEIC, Westpac Economics.
ratio
Loans and advances from the RBI (lhs) Credit-deposit ratio (rhs)
65
60
50
0 50 Mar-99 Mar-01 Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13
55
fearful symmetry
RBI credit to banks: volume and price
450
400 350 300 250 200 150 100
R bn
Loans and advances from the RBI (lhs) Marginal standby facility rate (rhs)
%pa
11
10 9 8 7
50
fearful symmetry
Indian monetary policy, activity and inflation
64 60 56 52 48 44 Mar-04
Rate corridor (rhs) Manufacturing PMI (lhs) WPI (rhs) Core inflation (rhs)
index
Sources: CEIC, Westpac Economics.
%pa/yr
12
10
8 6 4 2 0 Mar-10 Mar-12 -2 Mar-14
57
Mar-06
Mar-08
fearful symmetry
Commercial credit and nominal activity
40
%yr
Non-food commercial credit (lhs)
%yr
Sources: CEIC, Westpac Economics.
30
30
20
20
10
58
fearful symmetry
Bank liquidity and credit supply
40 30 20 10 0
Sources: CEIC, Westpac Economics.
%yr
%yr
Loan to deposit growth differential Resident deposits Private credit
40 30 20 10 0
-10 Mar-04
Mar-06
Mar-08
Mar-10
Mar-12
-10 Mar-14
59
fearful symmetry
Indian money and credit aggregates
35 30 25 20 %yr %yr
Sources: CEIC, Westpac. * Deposits less CRR & SLR.
35 30 25 20
15
10 5 0 Jan-04 M1 Credit Jan-06 M3 DXRR* Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12
15
10 5 0 Jan-14
60
fearful symmetry
Indian bank liquidity and commercial credit
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Jan-02 DXRR* (lhs) Commercial credit (lhs) Loan to deposit ratio^ (rhs) Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 %yr %
Sources: CEIC, Westpac. * Resident deposits less the CRR and SLR. ^ Stock of commercial credit to stock of DXRR.
95 Jan-14
61
fearful symmetry
Indian bank loans by sector & purpose
150 %yr Construction Infrastructure Consumer durables Housing %yr
Sources: CEIC, Westpac.
150
125
100 75 50 25 0 -25 -50 Jan-04 Jan-06
125
100 75 50 25 0 -25 -50
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
62
fearful symmetry
Indian bank loans to infrastructure
150 120 90 60 30 0
Sources: CEIC, Westpac.
%yr
150 120 90 60 30 0
-30 Mar-04
Mar-06
Mar-08
Mar-10
Mar-12
-30 Mar-14
63
fearful symmetry
Central government revenues & outlays
40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20
%yr %yr
Tax revenues
Sources: CEIC, Westpac Economics. Rolling twelve months for historical data, budget estimate at outset of the year in question.
40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20
40 30 20 10 0 -10
Expenditure
Jan-06
Jan-09
Jan-12
64
fearful symmetry
Central government expenditure growth
40 30 20 10 0
Sources: CEIC, Westpac Economics. Rolling twelve months.
%yr
Total Plan Non-plan
%yr
40 30 20 10 0 -10
-10 Jan-00
Jan-03
Jan-06
Jan-09
Jan-12
65
fearful symmetry
Non-Plan outlays: actual & budget
40 30 20 10 0
Sources: CEIC, Westpac Economics. Rolling twelve months for historical data, budget estimate at outset of the year in question.
%yr
Actual Non-Plan spending Budgeted Non-Plan spending
%yr
40 30 20 10 0 -10
-10 Jan-00
Jan-03
Jan-06
Jan-09
Jan-12
66
fearful symmetry
Plan outlays: actual & budget
40 30 20 10 0
Sources: CEIC, Westpac Economics. Rolling twelve months for historical data, budget estimate at outset of the year in question.
%yr
Actual Plan spending
Budgeted Plan spending
%yr
40 30 20 10 0 -10
-10 Jan-00
Jan-03
Jan-06
Jan-09
Jan-12
67
fearful symmetry
The subsidy bill and the oil price
105 %yr
Fateh oil price, INR terms Budgeted Subsidy spending
%yr
105
90
75 60 45 30 15 0 -15 -30 -45 Jan-00
90
75 60 45 30 15 0 -15
Jan-03
Jan-06
Jan-09
fearful symmetry
Real net fixed capital stock growth by decade
12
CAGR %
1981-91 1991-01 2001-11
9
Sources: Westpac, CEIC.
fearful symmetry
Capital efficiency in India and China
2 3 4 5 6 7
China India
ICOR*
ICOR*
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Sources: CEIC, Westpac. * Incremental capital to output ratio: GCF/GDP / GDP growth rate. A falling ratio indicates greater efficiency, a rising ratio lesser efficiency. In this chart, as the series is inverted, a rising curve is an improvement in efficiency, and vice versa.
8 Mar-05
Mar-07
Mar-09
Mar-11
Mar-13
70
fearful symmetry
India: investment and its efficiency
12 ICOR
Sources: Westpac Economics, CEIC.
10 8 6 4 2 32 34 36 38
Gross investment share
2012/13: Annus horribilis: Less investment & less efficient
40
42
71
fearful symmetry
Is there a threshold inflation effect on growth?
12 GDP IPD
Sources: Westpac Economics, CEIC. * Quarterly sample, Jun-97 to Mar-12
11
10 9 8 7 6 5
4
3 2
Real GDP
10
11
72
fearful symmetry
The 4 Cs: crime, courts, corruption, contracts
60 50 40 30 20 10 0
China India Indonesia
%
Corruption* Courts* Contracts^ Crime*
% 56
Source: World Bank. * Share of managers nominating as a constraint on business. Courts refers to confidence in courts upholding property rights. ^ Number of procedures to enforce a contract.
60 50 40 30
42 34 25 25 12
41
27
31 18 20
22 20 10 0
73
fearful symmetry
Income level per capita & its distribution
70 60 50 40
Gini index South Africa Colombia China Thai Brazil Chile Mexico Russia US
Sources: Westpac Economics, WDI
Indon.
30
India Malaysia
Poland
Wealthy OECD
20 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
74
fearful symmetry
The key points reiterated
75
fearful symmetry
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You should consider each such statement in deciding whether to acquire, or to continue to hold, any carbon unit, Australian carbon credit unit or eligible international emissions unit. Additional information if you are located outside of Australia New Zealand: The current disclosure statement for the New Zealand division of Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 or Westpac New Zealand Limited can be obtained at the internet address www.westpac.co.nz. Westpac Institutional Bank products and services are provided by either Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (New Zealand division) or Westpac New Zealand Limited. For further information please refer to the Product Disclosure Statement (available from your Relationship Manager) for any product for which a Product Disclosure Statement is required, or applicable customer agreement. Download the Westpac NZ QFE Group Financial Advisers Act 2008 Disclosure Statement at www.westpac.co.nz. China, Hong Kong, Singapore and India: Westpac Singapore Branch holds a wholesale banking licence and is subject to supervision by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Westpac Hong Kong Branch holds a banking license and is subject to supervision by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. Westpac Hong Kong branch also holds a license issued by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) for Type 1 and Type 4 regulated activity. Westpac Shanghai and Beijing Branches hold banking licenses and are subject to supervision by the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC). Westpac Mumbai Branch holds a banking license from Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and subject to regulation and supervision by the RBI. U.K.: Westpac Banking Corporation is registered in England as a branch (branch number BR000106) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. Westpac Europe Limited is a company registered in England (number 05660023) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. This material and this website and any information contained therein is directed at a) persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(1) of the Financial Services Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 or (b) high net worth entities, and other persons to whom it may otherwise be lawfully communicated, falling within Article 49(1) of the Order (all such persons together being referred to as relevant persons). The investments to which this material and this website relates are only available to and any invitation, offer or agreement to subscribe, purchase or otherwise acquire such investments will be engaged in only with, relevant persons. Any person who is not a relevant person should not act or rely upon this material and this website or any of its contents. In the same way, the information contained in this material and this website is intended for eligible counterparties and professional clients as defined by the rules of the Financial Services Authority and is not intended for retail clients. With this in mind, Westpac expressly prohibits you from passing on the information on this material and this website to any third party. In particular this material and this website, website content and, in each case, any copies thereof may not be taken, transmitted or distributed, directly or indirectly into any restricted jurisdiction. U.S.: Westpac operates in the United States of America as a federally licensed branch, regulated by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Westpac is also registered with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission ( CFTC) as a Swap Dealer, but is neither registered as, or affiliated with, a Futures Commission Merchant registered with the US CFTC. Westpac Capital Markets, LLC (WCM), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Westpac, is a broker-dealer registered under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the Exchange Act) and member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority ( FINRA). This communication is provided for distribution to U.S. institutional investors in reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 under the Exchange Act and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail investors in the United States. WCM is the U.S. distributor of this communication and accepts responsibility for the contents of this communication. All disclaimers set out with respect to Westpac apply equally to WCM. If you would like to speak to someone regarding any security mentioned herein, please contact WCM on +1 212 389 1269. All disclaimers set out with respect to Westpac apply equally to WCM. Investing in any non-U.S. securities or related financial instruments mentioned in this communication may present certain risks. The securities of nonU.S. issuers may not be registered with, or be subject to the regulations of, the SEC in the United States. Information on such non-U.S. securities or related financial instruments may be limited. Non-U.S. companies may not subject to audit and reporting standards and regulatory requirements comparable to those in effect in the United States. The value of any investment or income from any securities or related derivative instruments denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars is subject to exchange rate fluctuations that may have a positive or adverse effect on the value of or income from such securities or related derivative instruments. The author of this communication is employed by Westpac and is not registered or qualified as a research analyst, representative, or associated person under the rules of FINRA, any other U.S. self-regulatory organisation, or the laws, rules or regulations of any State. Unless otherwise specifically stated, the views expressed herein are solely those of the author and may differ from the information, views or analysis expressed by Westpac and/or its affiliates. For the purposes of Regulation AC only: Each analyst whose name appears in this report certifies that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst about any and all of the subject companies and their securities and (2) no part of the compensation of the analyst was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly related to the specific views or recommendations in this report. For XYLO Foreign Exchange clients: This information is provided to you solely for your own use and is not to be distributed to any third parties. XYLO Foreign Exchange is a division of Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 and Australian credit licence 233714. Information is current as at date shown on the publication. This information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. XYLO Foreign Exchanges combined Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement can be obtained by calling XYLO Foreign Exchange on 1300 995 639, or by emailing customercare@XYLO.com.au.
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