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ANUL

1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

PIB (mld. Lei pr. Crt 1997)


25296
234951
235260
237873
256993
272061
307824
343118
367991

POPULATIA TOTALA(mii pers.)


22546
22503
22458
22435
22408
21795
21734
21673
21624

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error

0.956636897
0.915154152
0.864246643
149.9184522

Chart Title
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

POPULATIA TOTALA(mii pers.)


PIB (mld. Lei pr. Crt 1997)
PRODUCTIVITATEA MUNCII ( pr. Comp. 97 mld. Lei/pers.)
INDICELE CASTIGULUI REAL FATA DE ANUL PRECEDENT(%)

PRODUCTIVITATEA MUNCII ( pr. Comp. 97 mld. Lei/pers.)


23
22
22
23
25
29
33
37
40

INDICELE CASTIGULUI REAL FATA DE ANUL PRECEDENT(%)


77
104
98
104
105
102
111
111
114

Observations

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

2004

2005

2006

SS
3 1212115
5 112377.7
8 1324493

Coefficients
Standard Error
Intercept 22624.87 1795.206
X Variable 1 -0.00208 0.002776
X Variable 2 -45.7078 11.32857
X Variable 3 12.86356 22.72728

mld. Lei/pers.)

PRECEDENT(%)

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
ObservationPredicted Y
1 22519.14
2 22484.1
3 22392.19
4 22437.42
5 22316.23

Residuals
26.78191
18.70226
65.83331
-2.21408
92.16157

6
7
8
9

22029.93 -235.139
21884.81 -151.251
21620.61 52.71938
21491.44 132.4058

DE ANUL PRECEDENT(%)

X Variable 1 Line Fit Plo


23000
22500
22000
21500
21000
0

100000 200000
X Variable 1

MS
404038.4
22475.54

t Stat
12.60294
-0.74877
-4.03474
0.565997

F
Significance F
17.9768 0.00414

P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%


Upper 95.0%
5.59E-05 18010.14 27239.59 18010.14 27239.59
0.487705 -0.00921 0.005057 -0.00921 0.005057
0.009974 -74.8289 -16.5868 -74.8289 -16.5868
0.595853 -45.5588 71.2859 -45.5588 71.2859

Variable 1 Line Fit Plot

Y
Predicted Y

X Variable 2 Line Fit Plot

200000 300000 400000

X Variable 1

23000
22500
22000
21500
21000
0

10

20

30

X Variable 2

X Variable 3 Line Fit Plot

23000
22500

22000

Predicted Y

21500
21000
0

50
X Variable100
3

150

40

50

t Plot
Y
Predicted Y

ANUL
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002

PRODUSUL INTERN BRUT (PIB)


EXPORT ( E ) IMPORT ( I )
857.9
143.5
224.56
2203.9
388
474.64
6029.2
1675.6
2182.5
20035.7
4611.6
5607.5
49773.2
12395.2
13421.7
72135.5
19921.3
23958.2
108919.6
30651.1
39830.8
252925.7
73795.7
91661.2
373798.2
87104.5
117108.3
545730
152902.7
179274.5
803773.1
264186.6
309437.5
1167242.8
329848.1
451775.3
1512256.6
536051.4
623591.5

1600000
1400000
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
1988

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations

0.997674914
0.995355235
0.994426281
37067.50814
13

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1
X Variable 2

2
10
12

SS
MS
F
Significance F
2.94443E+12 1.47E+12 1071.481 2.16E-12
13740001599 1.37E+09
2.95817E+12

Coefficients Standard Error


t Stat
P-value Lower 95%
22858.77192 12850.72901 1.778792 0.105634 -5774.44
-0.926817332 0.744735694 -1.24449 0.241696 -2.58619
3.239850259 0.615504427 5.263732 0.000366 1.868421

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation

Predicted Y
Residuals
1 23453.31441 -22595.41441
2 24036.92933 -21833.02933

3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13

28376.76999
36752.12145
54854.98396
82016.3463
123496.6289
251432.2007
321542.1678
461968.4348
780537.2168
1180834.159
1546380.127

AUTOCORELATIE
PRODUSUL EXPORT
INTERN BRUT
( E ) (PIB)
857.9
2203.9
6029.2
20035.7
49773.2
72135.5
108919.6
252925.7
373798.2
545730
803773.1
1167243
1512257

SUMMARY OUTPUT

143.5
388
1675.6
4611.6
12395.2
19921.3
30651.1
73795.7
87104.5
152902.7
264186.6
329848.1
536051.4

-22347.56999
-16716.42145
-5081.783959
-9880.846295
-14577.02891
1493.499258
52256.03223
83761.5652
23235.88316
-13591.35884
-34123.52666

DURBIN-WATSON

IMPORT ( I )
224.56
474.64
2182.5
5607.5
13421.7
23958.2
39830.8
91661.2
117108.3
179274.5
309437.5
451775.3
623591.5

Residuals
-22595.41441
-21833.02933
-22347.56999
-16716.42145
-5081.783959
-9880.846295
-14577.02891
1493.499258
52256.03223
83761.5652
23235.88316
-13591.35884
-34123.52666

Residu
als e t
-22595.4
-21833
-22347.6
-16716.4
-5081.78
-9880.85
-14577
1493.499
52256.03
83761.57
23235.88
-13591.4
-34123.5

Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.997674914
R Square
0.995355235
Adjusted R Square
0.994426281
Standard Error
37067.50814
Observations
13
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
EXPORT ( E )
IMPORT ( I )

SS
2 2.94443E+12
10 13740001599
12 2.95817E+12

MS
F
Significance F
1.47221E+12 1071.481 2.16E-12
1374000160

Coefficients
Standard Error
t Stat
P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%
22858.77192 12850.72901 1.778791842 0.105634 -5774.44 51491.98
-0.926817332 0.744735694 -1.244491622 0.241696 -2.58619 0.732557
3.239850259 0.615504427 5.263731855 0.000366 1.868421 4.61128

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation
Predicted PRODUSUL INTERN BRUT (PIB)Residuals
1
23453.31441 -22595.41441
2
24036.92933 -21833.02933
3
28376.76999 -22347.56999
4
36752.12145 -16716.42145
5
54854.98396 -5081.783959
6
82016.3463 -9880.846295
7
123496.6289 -14577.02891
8
251432.2007 1493.499258
9
321542.1678 52256.03223
10
461968.4348 83761.5652
11
780537.2168 23235.88316
12
1180834.159 -13591.35884
13
1546380.127 -34123.52666

AUTOCORELATIE
PRODUSUL EXPORT
INTERN BRUT
( E ) (PIB)
857.9
2203.9

LAGRANGE MULTIPLIER

143.5
388

IMPORT ( I )
224.56
474.64

Residua
ls et

et-1
0
-22595

-22595.4
-21833

6029.2
20035.7
49773.2
72135.5
108919.6
252925.7
373798.2
545730
803773.1
1167243
1512257

1675.6
4611.6
12395.2
19921.3
30651.1
73795.7
87104.5
152902.7
264186.6
329848.1
536051.4

2182.5
5607.5
13421.7
23958.2
39830.8
91661.2
117108.3
179274.5
309437.5
451775.3
623591.5

-21833
-22348
-16716
-5082
-9881
-14577
1493
52256
83762
23236
-13591

-22347.6
-16716.4
-5081.78
-9880.85
-14577
1493.499
52256.03
83761.57
23235.88
-13591.4
-34123.5

Regression

Chart Title
1600000
1400000
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
1988

1990

1992

1994

PRODUSUL INTERN BRUT (PIB)

1996

1998

2000

EXPORT ( E )

2002

2004

IMPORT ( I )

2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0

X Variable 2 Line Fit Plot


Y

X Variable 1 Line Fit Plot

2000000
1500000
1000000
200000
500000

400000

600000

0 X Variable 1
0
200000 400000 600000

ignificance F

X Variable 2

e 2

EXPORT ( E ) Line Fit Plot

e 3
Testul Jarque-Bera
2000000
( I ) Line Fit
Plot 6.58701E
IMPORT

1500000
T PRODUSUL

INTERN

2
BRUT
1000000
2000000
S

3
(PIB)
e 2
13740001
e 3 500000e 4 1500000
PRODUSUL
Predicted

PRODUSUL
INTERN
1000000
0

BRUT
(PIB)
INTERN
BRUT
(PIB)

T
0
200000
500000 400000 600000

PRODUSUL INTERN BRUT


(PIB)

Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%


-5774.43666 51491.98051
-2.58619187 0.732557203
1.868420932 4.611279587
PRODUSUL INTERN BRUT
(PIB)

Upper 95%
51491.98
0.732557
4.61128

Residuals
-22595.4 510552752.4 -1.15362E+13 2.60664E+17 EXPORT
0 (E)
-21833 476681169.6 -1.04074E+13 2.27225E+17
0

400000

e 4800000
INTERN5.92332E

BRUT (PIB)

IMPORT T

(I)
1


2
e 2
137400015

Predicted PRODUSUL

numarat
numit

et - et-1
581231
-514.541
5631.149
11634.64
-4799.06
-4696.18
16070.53
50762.53
31505.53
-60525.7
-36827.2
-20532.2

499413884.6
279438746
25824528.2
97631123.51
212489772
2230540.034
2730692904
7015999804
539906266.3
184725035.1
1164415072
13740001599

-1.11607E+13
-4.67122E+12
-1.31235E+11
-9.64678E+11
-3.09747E+12
3331309886
1.42695E+14
5.87671E+14
1.25452E+13
-2.51066E+12
-3.97339E+13
6.58701E+14

5.06693E+13
2.56738E+27 S=
1.18067E+27
1056923200
K=

(et - et-1)2
3.37829E+11
264752.0985
31709833.97
135364789.5
23030999.31
22054131.19
258261875.7
2576834754
992598607.6
3663358186
1356245753
421569915.5
3.47311E+11

PRODUSUL INTERN

-22347.6
-16716.4
-5081.78
-9880.85
-14577
1493.499
52256.03
83761.57
23235.88
-13591.4
-34123.5
Total

2.49414E+17
7.8086E+16
6.66906E+14
9.53184E+15
4.51519E+16
4.97531E+12
7.45668E+18
4.92243E+19
2.91499E+17
3.41233E+16
1.35586E+18
5.92332E+19

INTERN5.92332E
800000
BRUT (PIB)

1

2
2

137400015

13

JB

2.174503749
1.39399E+54

13
( 2 . 174503749
6

4.5564E+18
1.11709E+18
1056923200

4.078821835

(et)2
510552752.4
476681169.6
499413884.6
279438746
25824528.2
97631123.51
212489772
2230540.034
2730692904
7015999804
539906266.3
184725035.1
1164415072
13740001599 d=

400000
e

IMPORT T
(I)

25.27735

(4.

Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%


-5774.44 51491.98051
-2.58619 0.732557203
1.868421 4.611279587

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.998743523
R Square 0.997488625
Adjusted R Square
0.9966515
Standard Error
28730.68937
Observations
13
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

3
9
12

SS
MS
F
Significance F
2.95074E+12 9.8358E+11 1191.565 5.15152E-12
7429072607 825452511.8
2.95817E+12

Coefficients Standard Error


Intercept
27889.2654 10125.27385
EXPORT ( E ) -0.87490614 0.577543108
IMPORT ( I ) 3.148187816 0.478222287
et-1
0.773248413 0.279652327

t Stat
2.754420849
-1.51487591
6.583105594
2.765034791

P-value
0.022315
0.164105
0.000101
0.021931

Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%


4984.304626 50794.23 4984.305
-2.18139942 0.431587
-2.1814
2.066373843 4.230002 2.066374
0.140630899 1.405866 0.140631

Y
Predicted Y
Y

Predicted Y
600000 800000

t Plot 6.58701E
13
L INTERN BRUT

3
1374000159
PRODUSUL
PRODUSUL
INTERN
13
BRUT (PIB)

Predicted PRODUSUL
INTERN5.92332E
BRUT (PIB)

13

1374000159

IMPORT ( I ) Line Fit Plot


2000000
1500000
2000000
1000000
0 500000 400000
1500000
EXPORT
(
E)
1000000
0
0 500000
500000
PRODUSUL INTERN BRUT
(PIB)

2 Line Fit Plot

2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0

PRODUSUL INTERN BRUT


(PIB)

t Plot

PRODUSUL INTERN BRUT


(PIB)

EXPORT ( E ) Line Fit Plot


PRODUSUL INTERN

BRUT
(PIB) Fit Plot
et-1
Line
PRODUSUL INTERN
Predicted PRODUSUL
INTERN BRUTBRUT
(PIB)(PIB)
1000000

IMPORT
0 (I)
-50000
0

14

3
9

19

et-1

50000

PRODUSUL INTERN
Predicted PRODUSUL
INTERN BRUTBRUT
(PIB)(PIB)
100000

Predicted PRODUSUL
INTERN BRUT (PIB)

13

1374000159

13

INTERN5.92332E
BRUT (PIB)

503749

13

19

( 4 . 078821835

3) 2

Upper 95.0%
50794.23
0.431587
4.230002
1.405866

USUL INTERN

ted PRODUSUL
N BRUT (PIB)