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Summary
Editors Letter
Balanced Energy Portfolios Are Coming into Fashion: More Oil for North America
Power Markets
Dutch Power Futures Traded for the First Time on EEX Genscape Adds German CHP Service to Power RT Product NWE Launches Day-Ahead Price Coupling Project in February 2014 Platts Discontinues Polish Far Months Power Assessments Platts Alters Assessments of Gap Products Platts Changes European Power Day-Ahead Close Plattss Entergy Index Unaffected by MISO Expansion Argus Moves US Electricity Spark Spreads Series in Argus US Electricity Report
Argus Renames Ethanol Codes Argus Renames Series to Reflect Revised Cargo Tonnage Argus Updates DeWitt Toluene, Xylenes, and Isomers NYMEX Expands Listing Schedules for Petroleum Futures and Options NYMEX Amends Petroleum Futures NYMEX Approves Block Trading in Canadian Light Sweet Oil Index Futures ICE Futures Europe Transitions Brent Crude Oil Futures and Options to Month-Ahead Expiry Calendar ICE Futures Europe Amends Brent Crude Futures and Options Mexicos Congress Approves Energy Reform Bill
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CME Announces Listing of Ten New Fixed Price Natural Gas Futures NYMEX Lists New Canadian Light Sweet Oil Index Futures NYMEX Lists New Henry Hub Combo Futures Contract NYMEX Lists New Petroleum Oil Average Price Options Argus Adds LNG Weekly Average Series Argus Adds a Volume-Weighted Average for Gasoline Tokyo Commodity Exchange and Ginga Energy Japan Establish Japan OTC Exchange Platts Adds RVO Calculations Platts Adds Assessment Rationales for Benchmark Gasoil and Fuel Oils Platts Launches eWindow Instruments for US Light Ends Platts Discontinues China Fuel Oil Assessments Platts Discontinues FD Northwest European and FOB Rotterdam Assessments Argus Discontinues Druzhba Pipeline Crude Averages Argus Ceases Druzhba Pipeline Crude Assessments Argus Discontinues Urals daf Kazakhstan Monthly Assessments Argus Discontinues Druzhba Pipeline Crude Assessments Argus Terminates Druzhba Pipeline Crude Assessments Argus Discontinues Russian Crude Exports NYMEX Removes Contract Months for 25-Day Brent Futures Platts Adjusts Group 3 Gasoline Label on PGA Page 160 Platts Changes CFR Taiwan Assessment Terms Platts Will Reflect Tangier in Med Oil Assessments Platts Opens Review of Middle East Products Methodology Platts Changes Delivery Range for NWE Aromatics Platts Renames European Fuel Oil Swaps Platts Realigns Bunker Fuel Assessment Publishing Schedules to Coincide with Singapore, London, and Houston Schedules Platts Normalizes CIF Azeri Light Crude to Ceyhan Quality Argus Adds High/Low Price Types to DeWitt Toluene and Xylenes Daily Argus Changes Coal Daily Codes Argus Renames Gasoline US Products
December 2013
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Carbon Market Data Launches New Website and Data Platform Carbon Market Data Adds New Installations and Airline Companies to EU ETS and Aviation ETS Databases California and Quebec Link Carbon Cap and Trade Programs EIA Adds Renewables Section to State Energy Profiles Tool
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New SPDR Equity Index ETF Launched on Xetra Budapest Stock Exchange Begins Using Deutsche Brses Xetra System New Futures Introduced on Dow Jones-UBS Ex-Indexes HKEx Announces Soft Launch of OTC Clear Markit and HKEx Connect for OTC Rates and FX Clearing CBOE Lists New Options on CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index Tankards Indices Available on Reuters and Bloomberg NASDAQ OMX Introduces an Intraday Auction Bursa Malaysia and NASDAQ OMX Launch New Trading Engine, Bursa Trade Securities 2 Thomson Reuters and SGX Launch Singapore Dollar Bond Indices Thomson Reuters Fixed Income Trading Platform Adds Data from ANZ Eurex and TAIFEX Announce Launch of New Futures Trading Link TAIFEX Launches Negotiated Block Trade CME Group Transfers KCBT Contracts to Chicago Board of Trade
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NYSE: ICE and DTCC Announce Plans for Interest Rate Futures Listed on NYSE Liffe US Update on Liffes Transition to ICE Futures Exchanges and ICE Platform NYSE: ICEs Trade Vault Europe Approved by ESMA as Trade Repository Fitch Argentina, Renamed FIX-SCR, Focuses on Argentine and Uruguayan Markets HKEx and the China Futures Association Sign MOU HKEx and LME Form LME Clear Board
Other Matters
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Argus Adds New Codes to Dewitt Polymers Dalian Commodity Exchange Adds Fiberboard and Blockboard Futures Baltic Exchange Amends Capesize Index
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New Data Reports from ZEMA API 8 Coal Swaps Hit Monthly High in November Argus Launches New Russian MTBE Report Barchart Releases New On Demand Market Data APIs PEGAS Markets Set New Records in November EPEX SPOT: French Intraday Displays Second Best Volume Ever Flexible Markets Are Key Ingredient for Efficient Energy Transition EPEX SPOT Launches Negative Prices on Swiss Day-Ahead in 2014 European Power Exchange Wins Franco-German Economy Award 2013 NWE Price Coupling to Launch 4 February 2014
ZE PowerGroup Inc.(ZE) invites ZEMA users exclusively to attend our ZEMA User Forum, held in Vancouver, British Columbia from May 27-28, 2014. The forum will provide information on new features of ZEMA 4, ZEs best-in-class enterprise data management system. Event highlights include a road map of upcoming features and timelines for Market Analyzer, Data Direct, and Curve Manager, as well as insight into ZEMAs entitlement management, reporting, and validation functionalities. Attendees will have the opportunity to receive one-on-one ZEMA training sessions.
In Depth
Price Reporting Agencies, Assessments, and Increased Asian Oil Consumption
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December 2013
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Editors Letter
Balanced Energy Portfolios Are Coming into Fashion: More Oil for North America
Changes, changes, and more changes. I am not sure how many more changes the energy industry can endure within such a short period of time, but it has to. And it does so, and it adapts and perseveres. The industry seems to agree to disagree about policy directions in regard to the type of generation resources to dominate stack additions. After a surge in renewable generation built up, the industry is embracing a resurrection of natural gas and oil. This resurrection is not exactly a pure resurrection, as no real infrastructural changes have been made; I would rather refer to it as an emotional resurrection. North America, or the U.S. to be more exact, is welcoming an imminent abundance of oil and gas production that is somewhat balanced by cleaner and greener power generation. Industry is adapting, and so are reporting agencies. EIA has just announced changes to the State Energy Profiles available through EIAs State Energy Portal which reflect this trend. Its not only fossil energy resources, oil refineries, and pipelines that are being covered. The agency also added a new section on each states renewable resources, providing detailed descriptions of each of the following types of renewables: biomass, geothermal, hydroelectricity, solar, and wind.
Figure 1: Electric Power Generation in the U.S. as of September 2013 (Data Source: EIA) In fact, according to data reported by the EIA, power generation is getting more diverse. Take a look at the graph of power generation resources in September 2013 in Figure 1. The volume of renewables is reaching levels sufficient to actually be displayed on the graph next to coal and nuclear. That looks like an achievement on its own. At the same time, natural gas-fired power generation is getting more traction; in California, Florida, and Texas it is pushing its way up and above. Most top power producing states (Florida, Texas, Pennsylvania, and Illinois) continue to rely mainly on natural gas and coal-fired generators. No doubt their emission levels (carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide), shown in Figure 2, are at the top of the list. Californias generation mix is also heavily outweighed by natural gas, which represents about 60% of the total power produced in September 2013. Despite this, California represents a completely different case. Being the third largest state in power production, it succeeds in doing so almost without coal-fueled power plants. As a result, the Golden State has one of the nations lowest shares of total emissions (2% versus 12% for Texas). The emissions data is reported for the year 2011; hence the conclusion is made with expectations that the same regional shares in the national portfolio will be sustained throughout 2013. Concerns in regard to ratepayers bills being elevated by the cost of running renewable power are somewhat responded to by the fact that the total expenditure per capita for energy in California was below the nations average, at least in 2011. Sounds like California is doing something right. It is not just the Northwestespecially Washington and Oregonboasting a vast renewable and hydro generation base: the share of renewables comprises noticeable portions of many states generation portfolios, and more states boast more diverse generation bases. States such Figure 2: Total Emissions by State (Data Source: EIA)
December 2013
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Editors Letter
as New York, Virginia, and Maine have nuclear and fossil-fueled generators balanced by renewable units. Reported data on natural gas and oil brought no surprises. As shown in Figure 3, Texas leads the pack with overwhelming volumes of recovered oil (September 2013) and natural gas (2012). Natural gas is on the top of the agenda in Louisiana, Pennsylvania, Wyoming, and Oklahoma; shale deposit recoveries surely help. The most concentrated oil recoveries remain in the Gulf of Mexicos proximity. Texas, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana continue feeding those coastal refineries. Figure 3: Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production by State (Data Source: EIA)
Remaining on the topic of oil, recent news from Mexico is likely to add some confusion to global markets. The looming end of Pemexs state monopoly over Mexicos vast crude resources is speculated to bring more international investors and producers to the country. The rest of the world will have to get used to the fact that more crude will be flowing in North American pipelines. If Canada succeeds (if it does) in sending its carbons all the way down to the Gulf Coast refineries via the Keystone Pipeline system, the flood of North American crude will be overwhelming. Augmented by the surge in Canadian and U.S. oil production, Mexican oil might just create another glut in the Gulf of Mexico. What shall we see? North America becoming primarily an exporting region? A new benchmark, maybe something like the Gulf of Mexico (GM)? Downward pressure on Brent? Europe and Asia remaining the two regions with a prevailing import profile? Maybe yes or maybe no, but one thing is certain: the fossil fuels sector is facing a significant overhaul. n
Editor Olga Gorstenko Director, Marketing and Communications Phone: 778-296-4183 Email: olga@ze.com
Advertising & Vendor Relationships Bruce Colquhoun Phone: 604-790-3299 Email: bruce.c@ze.com
Have an idea for an article or would like to contribute to an upcoming issue? Write to us at datawatch@ze.com To access previous issues of ZE DataWatch, go to datawatch.ze.com December 2013
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Power Markets
Genscapes German CHP service will provide customers with real-time CHP data, estimating the power production of a fleet of 452 German CHP plants. These data points are delivered three months ahead of existing traditional German Federal Agency production data. The introduction of these data points will improve transparency and be useful for traders in particular.
At the same time, Platts will now publish day-ahead, week-ahead, front-month, front-quarter, and year-ahead periods as a single midpoint value in Zloty/MWh and Eur/MWh in European Power Daily. 6
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Platts Alters Assessments of Gap Products
On November 29, 2013, Platts announced that it will suspend assessments of its Gap 2, March 30/31, 2015 product. Platts also proposed to amend its assessment calculation methodology for its Gap 1, September 29-30, 2014 product by entering NA values for both baseload and/or peakload on days when there is neither trade nor firm and verifiable indications of market value. Platts has chosen to alter these Gap product assessments following the UK power markets transition on November 1 to a Gregorian trading calendar for products with delivery in winter 2014 and beyond. While monitoring and reporting on market activity in the two UK calendars, Platts discovered that liquidity has now migrated to the Gregorian calendar for all applicable seasons, diminishing the need for market participants to cover gaps in their positions using the two and three-day products created to bridge the gaps between the two calendars in forward periods. MISO has defined three locational marginal price (LMP) hubs that will take effect on December 18: MISO Texas, MISO Arkansas, and MISO Louisiana. Day-ahead bilateral transactions that occur at these MISO LMP hubs will also be included in the Into Entergy index from December 18 onwards. LMP prices for MISO Texas, MISO Arkansas, and MISO Louisiana will be added in a table on page 5 of Megawatt Daily on December 19. They will also be added to Plattss Market Data category IK. Related marginal heat rate data will be added to Plattss Market Data category IL.
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The graph below created in ZEMA shows the historical monthly average prices of NYMEX Light Sweet crude oil futures (grey line) against NYMEX Canadian Heavy crude oil futures (red line) and the spread (blue bars) between the two contracts since January 2012.
CME Announces Listing of Ten New Fixed Price Natural Gas Futures
Effective for trade date January 6, 2014, the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) will list ten new fixed price natural gas futures for trade on CME and NYMEX trading floors. Clearing will be through CME ClearPort. The exchange will also permit block trading as per Rule 526 at a minimum threshold of 25 contracts. These changes are pending CFTC regulatory review periods. New futures contracts include the following: Commodity Code XAC XNC XO XKC XIC XQ XGC XFC XSC XTC Contract Name Algonquin Natural Gas (Platts IFERC) Fixed PriceFutures NGPL TexOk Natural Gas (Platts IFERC) Fixed Price Futures Chicago Natural Gas (Platts IFERC) Fixed PriceFutures OneOk, Oklahoma Natural Gas (Platts IFERC) Fixed Price Futures CIG Rockies Natural Gas (Platts IFERC) Fixed Price Futures PG&E Citygate Natural Gas (Platts IFERC) Fixed Price Futures Florida Gas Zone 2 Natural Gas (Platts IFERC) Fixed Price Futures Florida Gas Zone 3 Natural Gas (Platts IFERC) Fixed Price Futures Southern Natural Louisiana Natural Gas (Platts IFERC) Fixed Price Futures Trunkline Louisiana Natural Gas (Platts IFERC) Fixed Price Futures
*Graph created with ZEMA
December 2013
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Gasoline Euro-bob Oxy NWE Barges GCE (Argus) Crack Spread Average Price Option RBOB Gasoline Brent Crack Spread RBC Average Price Option
545
The above graph shows the movement for high and low Henry Hub natural gas prices in 2013 and the storage levels of gas throughout the year. This graph was created in ZEMA using NYMEX and EIA data.
PA0013213
Tokyo Commodity Exchange and Ginga Energy Japan Establish Japan OTCExchange
On November 29, 2013, the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) and Ginga Energy Japan Pte. Ltd. announced the establishment of the Japan OTC Exchange (JOE). The JOE will focus primarily on OTC markets for petroleum commodities and related products like freight derivatives. The market will feature swaps on gasoline, kerosene, gasoil, and crude oil for the fiscal year 2014. The JOE is capitalized at 10 million yen with an authorized capital of 25million yen.
PA0013214
PA0013215
December 2013
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Platts will publish RVO cost values for three revolving years. Effective January 2, 2014, Year 1 will reflect the 2012 percentageper-RIN breakdown; Year 2 will reflect the 2013 percentage-per-RIN breakdown. Effective May 1, 2014, Year 3 will reflect the 2014 percentage-per-RIN breakdown. Plattss RIN assessments reflect delivery one month ahead of the publication date. All year-ahead RIN assessments reflect delivery during the first delivery month of 2014 (January) up until the last business day of December.
Platts Adds Assessment Rationales for Benchmark Gasoil and Fuel Oils
Effective January 2, 2014, Platts announced that it will begin publishing assessment rationales for benchmark gasoil and fuel oil assessments in Asia and the Middle East. These new rationales will appear on new pages in Plattss Global Alert (PGA) for gasoil and Plattss Bunker Service (PGB) for bunker fuels. The table below includes new assessments covered and their corresponding page locations: Region Page Assessment Group Market Data Symbols AACUE00 AAFEZ00 PUAER00 PUAFR00 PUAEV00
Platts will also discontinue China dirty freight rate assessments into Guangzhou, Qingdao, and Shanghai. The discontinuation of these assessments is a reflection of changing market conditions within China. As China has rapidly expanded its refining capacities in recent years and has also increased using alternative utility feedstocks such as natural gas, the domestic fuel oil market has reduced in size and activity.
ASIA/ME 2490 Singapore 0.25% S Gasoil ASIA/ME 2490 AG 500 ppm S Gasoil ASIA/ME 2880 Hong Kong 380CST bunker fuel ASIA/ME 2880 South Korea 380CST bunker fuel
December 2013
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Description Druzhba Czech snapshot Druzhba German snapshot Druzhba Hungary snapshot Druzhba Polish snapshot Druzhba Slovak snapshot
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NYMEX Brent 25-day February 2016 Futures Brent 25-day Option Brent 25-day European Option Brent 25-day (Platts) Financial Futures February 2016 February 2016 February 2016
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Platts Realigns Bunker Fuel Assessment Publishing Schedules to Coincide with Singapore, London, and HoustonSchedules
On December 2, 2013, Platts announced that in 2014 it will realign several publishing schedules for global bunker fuel markets to coincide with schedules in three core publishing hubs: Singapore, London, and Houston. Platts is realigning its publishing schedules to optimize the efficiency of its global publishing schedules and to ensure that its schedules are representative of the increased concentration of market assessments in these core publishing hubs. In 2014, all bunker fuel assessments for Asia and the Middle East will be published in accordance with Singapores publishing schedule. All assessments for Europe and Africa will be published in accordance with Londons schedule, while all assessments for the Americas will be published in accordance with Houstons schedule.
Platts will consider whether or not it remains suitable to reflect nomination processes and volumes in the FOB Arab Gulf spot market assessment process which reflect those currently used in the Singapore spot market.
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Argus Adds High/Low Price Types to DeWitt Toluene and Xylenes Daily
On November 20, 2013, Argus added high/low price types to a series of codes in Argus DeWitt Toluene and Xylenes Daily. These codes are located in the dtxdaily files of the /DTXDaily folder of server ftp.argusmedia.com. Affected codes include: PA-Code PA0012123 PA0012123 PA0012123 PA0012123 PA0012124 PA0012124 PA0012125 PA0012125 PA0012125 PA0012125 PA0012126 PA0012126 Time Stamp Price Type Description 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 Toluene fob HTC month Toluene fob HTC month Toluene fob HTC month Toluene fob HTC month Paraxylene fob HTC month Paraxylene fob HTC month Mixed xylenes 5211 fob USGC month Mixed xylenes 5211 fob USGC month Mixed xylenes 5211 fob USGC month Mixed xylenes 5211 fob USGC month Mixed xylenes 843 fob USGC month Mixed xylenes 843 fob USGC month
PA0005225
PA0003860
December 2013
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Singapore 380 cst Fuel Oil (Platts) vs. European 3.5% EVC/EVC Fuel Oil Barges FOB Rdam (Platts) Futures Singapore Fuel Oil 180 cst (Platts) Average Price Option East-West Fuel Oil Spread (Platts) Futures C5/AC5
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The following code description will be changed: PA-Code PA001255 Old Description PET fibre Asia filament 150 POY feeder New Description PET fibre ex-works Asia filament 150D/48F POY USD/t The following codes, with time stamps of 0 and price types of 1, 2, and 8, will be stopped: PA-Code PA0012854 PA0012854 PA0012854 Description PET fibre Asia staple 0.9-1.5 den staple PET fibre Asia staple 0.9-1.5 den staple PET fibre Asia staple 0.9-1.5 den staple
493A
EW/FEW
666
Singapore Fuel Oil 180 cst (Platts) vs. 380 cst (Platts) Futures
SD/SD
667
Singapore Fuel Oil 380 cst (Platts) Futures Singpaore Fuel Oil 380 cst (Platts) Average Price Options
SE/SE
668
8H/A8H
668A
0F/A0F
844
December 2013
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MTS/ MTS
535
WT/WT
1051
537
TU/ATU
539
TP/ATP
547
Z5/AZ5
549
Z7/AZ7
Rule Clearing/ Current Listing Chapter Globex Code Schedule 231 UCM/UCM The last contract month is December 2014/1 month The last contract month is December 2014/12 consecutive months The last contract month is December 2014/1 month The last contract month is December 2014/1 month The last contract month is December 2014/1 month 1V/A1V The last contract month is December 2014/1 month. The last contract month is December 2014/ 12 consecutive months The last contract month is December 2014/ 12 consecutive months
561
BG/BG
232
MJC/MJC
712
7F/GLI
233
MJB/MJB
718
ET/AET
234
MGN/MGN
722
JC/HJC
235
MGF/MGF
723
JR/AJR
417
1V/A1V
724
GA/AGA
725
HA/HAB
531
QA/AQA
728
GX/AGX
533
WQ/AWQ
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737
MUD/MUD
745
MGB/MGB
997
GRS/GRS
1056
IGE/IGE
1060
MUL/MUL
1148
FBT/FBT
1150
BFR/BFR
NYMEX Approves Block Trading in Canadian Light Sweet Oil Index Futures
Effective from trade date December 16, 2013, NYMEX will permit block trading in Canadian Light Sweet Oil (Net Energy) index futures at a block trade minimum threshold of five contracts.
ICE Futures Europe Transitions Brent Crude Oil Futures and Options to Month-Ahead Expiry Calendar
On December 10, 2013, ICE Futures Europe announced that it has transitioned all ICE Brent futures, options, and derivatives to a new month-ahead expiry calendar. The expiry calendar for ICE Brent futures changed on December 6, 2013, for calendar months from March 2016 onwards. Affected calendar months will continue to trade under the same contract specifications and codes. The transition involved 37 member firms and 1,540 open positions, representing 124,000 contracts and 124 million barrels. ICE Clear Europe adjusted open positions in Brent futures, options and derivatives by
December 2013
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Macquarie Commodities Research Launches MacPI Index Agriculture and Sugar Commodities Added to Nikkei-TOCOM Commodity Index
On December 2, 2013, the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) added new agriculture and sugar market commodities to the NikkeiTOCOM Commodity Index. Soybean, azuki, corn, and raw sugar were added to the NikkeiTOCOM Commodity Index and the Nikkei-TOCOM Nearby Month Commodity Index. Corresponding weightings for affected components of these indexes were updated as well. The graph below displays the monthly averages of the CBT futures daily settlement prices for soybeans. The bars represent the daily settlement price, whereas the line represents the calculated monthly average. This graph, along with its analysis, was created by ZEMA Market Analyzer using CME Groups CBT Futures Daily Settlement price for soybeans. On December 4, 2013, Macquarie Commodities Research announced the creation of MacPI, the Macquarie Agricultural Commodity Price Index. The MacPI is a benchmark for the performance of agricultural and soft commodities; it also provides forecasts for the price of raw food materials in order to indicate the level of future food inflation. It has been designed for those following macroeconomics and food prices in the agricultural services sector. The MacPI tracks the price of futures contracts for 28 agricultural commodities using a consumption-weighted methodology. Currently, the MacPI forecasts the following trends: Trading in sugar and coffee will be bearish over the next six months as structural surpluses persist. Sugar will perform better in 2014 and 2015 as production slows, and cocoa will continue to do well due to market deficits in the next two seasons. Prices in the grains and oilseeds complex will fall and then recover in late 2014 and 2015 as corn acres are lost and converted to soybean fields instead. A headline decline of 11% in food and agricultural prices will occur in 2013, largely because of falls in animal feed prices (down 3.7%) and vegetable oil prices (down 2.5%). Palm oil and cocoa prices are the only constituents that will rise during this period. A further 10% decline in the MacPI in 2014 as animal feed components continue to fall in price (fall of 6.8%). Overall food deflation will therefore continue until 2015, when there will be a modest rebound of 2.8% in the index, with all commodity groups except for staple grains turning bullish by the end of 2015.
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DCE Announces Implementation and Promulgation of Commodity Futures Platts Seeks to Amend Chinese Iron Ore Assessment
On November 25, 2013, Platts proposed to change the methodology and specifications for its domestic Chinese 66% Fe iron ore concentrate price assessments to specify impurities, add normalization, and increase frequency. Platts also proposed to change the assessment basis from ex-works North East China to delivered Tangshan City, Hebei province. The frequency of this assessment would also increase from monthly to weekly. Platts seeks feedback until December 31st on these proposed changes; methodology changes will become effective February 7, 2014. On November 28, 2013, the Dalian Commodity Exchange announced that several block trading contracts and commodity contract amendments have been implemented and promulgated. The contracts listed below have been approved by China Securities Regulatory Commission. Detailed rules for the implementation of these contracts will come into force when the contracts are listed. Fiberboard Futures Contract of Dalian Commodity Exchange Blockboard Futures Contract of Dalian Commodity Exchange The contracts listed below have been deliberated on and passed by the 45th session of the DCEs second board of directors. These contracts have been reported to China Securities Regulatory Commission; they are now promulgated. Amendment to Detailed Trading Rules of Dalian Commodity Exchange
Amendment to Detailed Delivery Rules of Dalian Commodity Exchange Amendment to Measures of Dalian Commodity Exchange for Risk Management Amendment to Measures of Dalian Commodity Exchange for Management of Designated Delivery Warehouses
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KW
25
14L
KC HRW Wheat Short-Dated New Crop KWO Options KC HRW Wheat Weekly Options OK1OK5
25 25
14L 14L
December 2013
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EU ETS Contact 28 EU Database Countries EEA ETS Contact Database Aviation ETS Contact Database Asia CT100 Database Norway, Iceland, Lichtenstein 100 Countries China and Taiwan
Weekly
480
Weekly Quarterly
Carbon Market Data has also added information on Californias cap-and-trade scheme.
Carbon Market Data Adds New Installations and Airline Companies to EU ETS and Aviation ETS Databases
On December 9, 2013, Carbon Market Dataan information platform that provides updates on global carbon trading marketsadded new installations and companies to its EU ETS and Aviation ETS databases. Information added to these databases includes 150 new installations and five new airline companies.
December 2013
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Dow Jones-UBS ex-Industrial Metals Index Dow Jones-UBS ex-Agriculture Index Dow Jones-UBS ex-Agriculture & Livestock Index Dow Jones-UBS ex-Petroleum Index Dow Jones-UBS ex-Livestock Index Dow Jones-UBS ex-Grains Index Dow Jones-UBS ex-Precious Metals Index Dow Jones-UBS ex-Softs Index
This graph displays data for Dow Jones California Oregon Border (COB) Electricity Index. The red and blue line represent prices for peak and off-peak hours respectively while the bar graph shows the average monthly volume. This graph was created with ZEMA Market Analyzer and data from Dow Jones.
December 2013
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Finland: Mid-cap shares, small-cap shares, First North Sweden: Small-cap shares
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Thomson Reuters Fixed Income Trading Platform Adds Data from ANZ
On December 12, 2013, Thomson Reuters announced that the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. (ANZ) will list credit bond prices on Thomson Reuterss electronic bond trading platform, Thomson Reuters Fixed Income Trading. ANZs contribution will expand Thomson Reuterss coverage of AUD and NZD bonds, as well as USD and EUR Eurobonds from Australian and New Zealand issuers. Thomson Reuters Fixed Income Trading is displayed via Thomson Reuterss flagship financial desktop, Thomson Reuters Eikon.
December 2013
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December 2013
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Other Matters
Dalian Commodity Exchange Adds Fiberboard and Blockboard Futures
On December 6, 2013, the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) added several fiberboard and blockboard futures. New fiberboard futures contracts and their accompanying benchmark prices are listed below: Fiberboard Futures Contract FB1404 FB1405 FB1406 FB1407 FB1408 FB1409 FB1410 FB1411 Benchmark Price RMB 75 per piece RMB 76 per piece RMB 77 per piece RMB 78 per piece RMB 75 per piece RMB 76 per piece RMB 77 per piece RMB 78 per piece
New blockboard futures contracts and their accompanying benchmark prices are listed below: Blockboard Futures Contract Benchmark Price BB1404 BB1405 BB1406 BB1407 BB1408 BB1409 BB1410 BB1411 RMB 125 per piece RMB 126 per piece RMB 127 per piece RMB 128 per piece RMB 125 per piece RMB 126 per piece RMB 127 per piece RMB 128 per piece
PA0013206
December 2013
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Other Matters
The following new routes will be launched: Route Description Delivery Qingdao spot or retroactive up to a maximum 15 days after sailing from Qingdao, round voyage via Brazil, redelivery China-Japan range, duration 80-90 days. Basis the Baltic Capesize 2014 vessel. 5% total commission. Richards Bay-Guangzhou. 150,000mt coal, 10% more or less in owners option, free in and out trimmed, scale load / 30,000mt Sundays + holidays included discharge. 18 hrs turn time at loading port, 24 hrs turn time at discharge port. Laydays/cancelling 25/35 days from index date. Age max 15 yrs. 5% total commission Delivery north China-south Japan range, 3-10 days from index date for a trip via Australia or Indonesia or U.S. west coast or South Africa or Brazil, redelivery UK-Cont-Med within Skaw-Passero range, duration to be adjusted to 65 days. Basis the Baltic Capesize 2014 vessel. 5% total commission.
C14
C15
C16
The timecharter average figure provided by the Baltic Exchange to facilitate both the forward freight agreement (FFA) and physical market will be weighted as follows: Route C8_14 C9_14 C10_14 C14 C16 Description Transatlantic RV Fronthaul Pacific RV China-Brazil RV Revised backhaul Weighting 25% 12.5% 25% 25% 12.5%
Parallel reporting of the old and new suites of timecharter routes will continue until there is no further open interest in either forward freight agreements (FFAs) or options to be settled.
December 2013
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On the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), crude oil prices for NYMEX prompt-month contracts increased by more than 2% for Brent and Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) in the first three weeks of December compared to November. By the end of the third Thursday of December 2013, the NYMEX Brent prompt-month contract increased to $109 USD/bbl; meanwhile, WTI went up after its third consecutive monthly decline from $3 USD/bbl to $97 USD/bbl. WTIs discount to Brent slightly widened to $12 USD/bbl, the highest level since March. In its weekly analysis, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that U.S. crude oil inventories dropped by 2.9 million barrels in the week ending December 13600,000 barrels lower than market expectations.1 Also, WTI received further support after the Census Bureau said U.S. housing stats rose to 1.09 million units in November 2013 from 0.89 million in October.2 Additionally, market participants, investors, and traders witnessed more support for WTI after the Federal Reserve meeting regarding reduction of the pace of the stimulus package.3 The stimulus package is viewed as a key driver in boosting consumption and the price of commodities, especially crude oil. Brent received support from a labour strike at Total refineries and political instability in Libya. The labour strikes at the Gonfreville, Feyzin, and La Mede refineries of Total SArefineries with a capacity to process about 460,000 bpd supported Brent prices.4 Additionally, Libyan rebels refusal to allow the government to ship oil from three major ports put upward pressure on Brent.5
On the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), crude oil futures fluctuated between slight gains and losses as weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data overshadowed the Federal Reserves surprise move to begin tapering its stimulus package. From November to the third Thursday of December 2013, WTI for delivery next February gained $1 USD/bbl to $96 USD/bbl, whereas Brent found more support, being traded at $109 USD/bbl for same-month delivery. WTI gained momentum after the Federal Reserve said that it would taper its stimulus package from $89 billion to $79 billion a month, particularly since the move was interpreted as a sign of modest economic growth that could lift short crude demands in the U.S.1 However, on December 19, 2013, some of those high hopes for better economic prospects faded after the Labor Department reported that the number of people filing for initial unemployment benefits rose in the week ending December 14. These higher-than-expected unemployment numbers were announced only one day after the Fed suggested that the U.S. economy needed less support and decided to pare back its economic stimulus program.2 Brent futures shook off the Federal Reserves decision to begin tapering its stimulus program as the prices rose. The continued unrest in Libya which kept the oil ports shut along with strong Eurozone manufacturing data enabled the European benchmark to rise, widening the Brent-WTI spread to $12 USD/bbl on average until September 2019.
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On the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), North American natural gas spot prices surged three weeks into December compared to last month in all four major hubs: PG&E Citygate in California, Chicago Citygates, Henry Hub, and New York Transco Zone 6. From November to December (week ending December 18, 2013), the monthly average prices rose in PG&E Citygate by 21% to $4.67 USD/MMBtu, in Chicago Citygates by 21% to $4.56 USD/MMBtu, in Henry Hub by 14% to $4.17 USD/MMBtu, and, most notably, by 66% in Trans Z6 to $6.66 USD/MMBtu. Although the temperature drop compared to November in all four cities increased the prices by boosting demand, New York spot prices at the Transco Z6 hub faced upward pressure from supply disruptions. For the week ending December 18, 2013, EIAs Natural Gas Weekly Update reported the largest price fluctuation in New York, as the Transco Zone 6 spot surged to more than $16 USD/MMBtu in the second week of December, then dropped to below $5 USD/MMBtu by December 18. Big Apple prices spiked in the second week of December as cold temperatures drove up demand, while delivery was disrupted on the Texas Eastern Transmission Company (Tetco) pipeline after two service interruptions in the southwestern portion of the Appalachian Basins Marcellus Shale play in southwest Pennsylvania.1 On December 10, the first interruption happened as a result of an unplanned outage at a Tetco compressor station. Only one day after, deliveries onto Tetco from the Dominion Transmission pipeline were reduced due to unplanned maintenance at the Oakford Appalachian Gateway metering station.
On the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Henry Hub natural gas futures prices spiked after having slid for two months. By the end of the third Thursday of December 2013, the average futures prices at Henry Hub for the upcoming year jumped by 8% to $4.03 USD/MMbtu compared to November prices. The most eye-catching spike ($0.3 USD/MMbtu) happened for near-month (January 2014) futures prices. Natural gas futures increased as market participants expected demand to stay stronglargely because forecasts predicted colder weather. EIAs gas storage report in the second week of December showed higher-than-expected inventory withdrawals. The inventories were reported at 3.533 trillion cubic feet, more than 7 and 3 percent below the last year and the five-year level average respectively. A forecast by MDA Weather Services predicted temperatures change from the East in the third week of December to much colder conditions in the Midwest and Great Lakes for the following weeks. Meanwhile, winter storms and icy conditions pushed the demand higher than expected in the last month of the year. The Federal Reserves decision to cut $10 billion/month from their stimulus package seems to be perceived as a positive U.S. economic indicator by market traders and participants.
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From November to the end of the third Thursday of December, the temperature dropped in all four observed cities as the winter storm Cleon and Gemini dumped several inches of sleet, ice, and snow on much of the country. The monthly average temperature plunged in Sacramento by six degrees Celsius to 7C, in Chicago by nine degrees to -8C, in Raleigh by three degrees to 7C, and in New York by six degrees to 1C. In the last month of the year, the city of Chicago shivered in an early winter freeze as the average temperature felt like -13C from December 5 to December 18, 2013. This years early winter turned out to be below the two-year average in December. Comparing the past two-year average of December temperatures to December 2013, this year felt colder than the twoyear average in the observed cities, as the temperature was lower in Sacramento City by 1 degree Celsius, in Chicago by 7 degrees, in Raleigh by 2, and in New York by 4 degrees.
On the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), electricity day-ahead prices surged in the four observed North American markets for the week ending December 19, 2013. From November to December (week ending December 19), the day-ahead monthly average prices spiked in CAISO-SP15 by 23% to $54 USD/MWh, in the PJM North by 24% to $40 USD/MWh, in NYISO by 58% to $86 USD/MWh, and in ISO-NE by a whopping 136% to $124 USD/MWh. Major winter storms (Cleon and Gemini) brought icy conditions and power outages in the Midwest and the Northeast. Power prices surged as unusually cold temperatures caused by winter storms boosted heating demands. According to ISO-NE spokeswoman Ellen Foley, ISO-NE had to take drastic measures to meet power demands when peak demand hit 20,180 megawatts. ISOE-NE used emergency reserves to buy power from the NYISO for several hours in the late afternoon and early evening of Saturday, December 14, 2013. A lot of people stayed inside on December 14 in anticipation of the stormy winter condition that day, using 630 megawatts more than the ISO-NE anticipated for that date.1 On December 17, 2013, cold weather pushed the peak demand for the New England power grid to 21,400 megawatts, breaking the winter record for 2013 (20,887 megawatts) set in the early weeks of the year.2 The peak price for that day on the spot market was just above $340 USD/MWh.
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ENTSOG EnergyMeteo Enterprise Commodity Services Gaz Metro INFX Kern River Kinder Morgan MetalPrices.com Meteologica Meteologica NEISO NVE Nodal Exchange Nodal Exchange RIM Intelligence RIM Intelligence RIM Intelligence
Special Profiled Load Electricity Report Weekly Reservoir Levels EOD Futures Report Position Limits Asia Bunker Prices Asia Bunker Prices (Monthly Averages) CFR China Cargoes CFR Japan MR Cargoes FOB Arabian Gulf Cargoes FOB Indonesia Mixed/Cracked LSWR Cargoes FOB Japan MR Cargoes FOB Singapore Cargoes FOB South Korea Cargoes Water Price Futures Fuel Fuel Fuel Fuel Fuel Fuel Fuel Fuel Fuel
Bloomberg
Comparative Receipt COLC (Crude Oil Oil Logistics Committee) Statistics Trunk Line Transfer COLC (Crude Oil Report Logistics Committee) CenterPoint Commodity Weather Group Commodity Weather Group EIA EIA EIA EIA Gas Quality-Enable Gas Transmission (EGT) City Forecasts City Actuals Monthly Fuel Receipts and Costs Boiler Fuel Data Generator Data Monthly Fuel Receipts and Costs Others
RIM Intelligence RIM Intelligence RIM Intelligence RIM Intelligence RIM Intelligence RIM Intelligence RIM Intelligence
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RIM Intelligence
Fuel
USAC WSI
RIM Intelligence
Fuel WSI
RIM Intelligence RIM Intelligence RIM Intelligence RIM Intelligence RIM Intelligence RTE France TCEQ Tallgrass Energy Texas Eastern Three Sixty Three Sixty Three Sixty TransCanada TrueEx TrueEx TrueEx US Grains Council US Grains Council
Japan Product Paper Fuel Swap Assessments SR Clean Tanker Freight Rates Singapore Crack Margins Singapore Paper Swaps Tocom Energy Futures Wind Power Generation Forecast AQ-Emission Events Gas Quality-Rockies Express Pipeline (REX) Gas Quality SEF-NDS & NDF Trades SEF-Opening and Closing Quotes SEF-Options Trades Canadian Mainline Capacity-STFT Winter DCM-Pricing Data DCM-Trade Volume Data SEF-Trade Volume Data DDGS-Bulk Freight Indices for HSS DDGS-Price Table Fuel Fuel Fuel Fuel Electricity Carbon Emissions Gas Gas Currency Currency Currency Energy Others Others Others Freight Softs Argus Media chairman and chief executive Adrian Binks said: We are pleased to see the index has been accepted by the Asian market as a risk management tool and serves the needs of the companies operating in this region. The API coal indexes are calculated by averaging relevant Argus and IHS price assessments. The IHS McCloskey assessment used in the API 8 index is produced in association with Xinhua Infolink. The methodologies used to derive these prices are available online at www.argusmedia.com/methodology and www.mccloskeycoal.com. Media contacts: Houston Gabriela Alcocer Phone: +1 713 429 6308 gabriela.alcocer@argusmedia.com
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Weekly Price ReportUS Wheat Associates Ocean Freight Rate Freight Estimates by Origin US Wheat Associates USAC Weekly Price ReportOthers Price Table Forebay Elevation (FT)-Instantaneous (15 Minute) Water
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December 2013
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December 2013
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Spot Market
Index Name
Nov 2013 Index Value (min. / max. in EUR/MWh) 25.749/28.581 25.468 /30.250 25.58/29.05 25.38/28.77
GASPOOL NCG
EEX Daily Reference Price EEX Daily Reference Price Powernext Gas Spot DAPPowernext Gas Spot EOD Powernext Gas Spot DAPPowernext Gas Spot EOD EEX Daily Reference Price
PEG Nord
26.29/38.03 26.82/38.13
25.043/28.317
Derivatives Market Germany GASPOOL NCG PEG Nord PEG Sud TTF
Index Name EGIX (European Gas Index) Monthly Average EGIX Monthly Average EGIX Monthly Average Powernext Gas Futures Monthly Index Powernext Gas Futures Monthly Index Powernext Gas Futures Monthly Index
Dec 2013 Index Value (in EUR/MWh) 27.697 27.657 27.737 28.11 30.84 27.69
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Areas
Flexible Markets Are Key Ingredient for Efficient Energy TransitionEPEX SPOT Launches Negative Prices on Swiss Day-Ahead in 2014
Vienna, 5 December 2013: Renewables challenge the power systems across Europe. The Exchange Council of European Power Exchange (EPEX SPOT) has been following the topic for years and continues to call for market evolutions. Flexible tools for short-term power trading are the key to mastering the energy transition while maintaining security of supply. Past years have shown that liquid continuous intraday markets are one of the most accurate instruments for the integration of renewables. EPEX SPOT steadily examines how to further improve these markets and to bring trading as close as possible to real time, in order to cope with intermittency. Following the update of this springs meeting, the Exchange Council discussed the progress of several enhancements: Todays 45-minute gate closure time could be shortened by fine-tuning the intraday chain. Reducing the nomination lead time of EPEX SPOTs clearing house European Commodity Clearing (ECC) needed for the nomination of transactions to the transmission system operators (TSOs) to assure the physical delivery of electricity is one aspect. Furthermore, enhancements on several TSOs sideto receive more nominations per hour and at EPEX SPOT, regarding the data transfer, could foster a lead-time reduction. Members of the Exchange Council showed strong interest in this topic. EPEX SPOT and ECC will closely cooperate on the matter during 2014. The German intraday market could open earlier than todays 3 PM open, allowing members to balance their positions on both hourly and 15-minute contracts immediately after auction results.
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Prices within the French and the German market, both coupled with the Benelux markets within Central Western Europe (CWE), converged 35% of the time.
Intraday Markets On EPEX SPOT intraday markets, a total volume of 1,949,524 MWh was traded in November 2013 (November 2012: 1,480,388 MWh). Areas Monthly volume MWh Monthly volume previous year MWh 1,278,786 201,602 0*
DE/AT FR CH
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InDepth
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InDepth
oil benchmark prices do not necessarily follow the same pattern; in 2011, a new set of influences and drivers caused price variations. Oil Benchmarks Calendar Swaps (NYMEX)
Figure 1: NYMEX Calendar Swaps for Dated Brent, WTI, and DubaiOman (2009-2013) Price assessments of benchmark crudes are published by many PRAs on a daily basis. Assessments are taken to be representative of the real value of physical commodities; they are used by global oil market participants to make trading, investment, and business decisions. For example, assessments are used by upstream oil sector organizations when pricing crude oil that is transferred from upstream production departments to downstream refineries. Assessments are also used by banks, energy companies, governments, and regulators as reference prices in physical supply and derivatives contracts, for mark-to-market purposes, and as an indication of value for tax assessments; they are also used by risk managers for strategic analysis and planning. In other words, price assessments often have a real impact on an organizations bottom line.
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InDepth
market price levels and time differentials at their assessment cut-off points (Oil Price Reporting Agencies). By contrast, Platts reporters will consider information collected throughout the day, with a particular focus on the half hour prior to 1630 PM London time (Oil Price Reporting Agencies). Differences in assessment calculation methodologies amongst PRAs, particularly methodologies relating to oil derivatives contracts, have sparked some international concern. For example, the 2011 G20 Leaders Summit in Cannes requested that the IOSCO assess the role of PRA assessment calculation methodologies, as these assessments have impacted physical oil markets, broader financial markets, and the global economy. The IOSCO subsequently published a report in October 2012, Principles for Oil Reporting Agencies, that identified two major problems with the methodologies employed by both Platts and Argus: selective reporting measuresthat is, a reliance upon voluntarily submitted data that may not necessarily be completeas well as opacity and variations in assessment methodologies, particularly many organizations reliance upon the judgment of reporters when assessing illiquid markets. Some of the IOSCOs recommendations for PRAs included an increased emphasis upon concluded transactions when creating methodologies, enhanced audit trails, an avoidance of conflicts of interest, cooperation with regulatory authorities, and external auditing (Principles for Oil Reporting Agencies). Despite these concerns, many participants in the global oil industry continue to rely upon the assessments produced by Platts, Argus, and their contemporaries, as the assessments produced by these organizations are very closely aligned with real market trends.
Interestingly enough, in 2012 the United States was the worlds largest oil consumer, followed closely by two key countries in the AsiaPacific region, China and Japan (EIA). Figure 3 shows that these three countries consumed 33,547 million barrels per day (Mbbl/d) of global oil resources, or roughly 55% of all global oil.
Similarly, the United States and many countries in the Asia-Pacific region imported the highest volumes of crude oil in 2012. As shown in figure 4, the United States imported the largest number of barrels of crude, with China and Japan (countries lacking sufficient domestic crude oil supplies) closely following (EIA).
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InDepth
Amongst all countries in the Asia-Pacific region, China in particular is poised to expand into the global oil market. In November 2012, the State Council of Chinas cabinet announced that they were revising administrative regulations on futures trading, which included clauses to allow overseas institutions to enter the market (China Revises Regulations on Futures Trading). At the time, the Chinese State Council claimed that these revised clauses left room for overseas investors to participate in futures trading of crude oil, which the government plans to introduce soon (China Revises Regulations on Futures Trading). Increased futures trading of crude oil will no doubt be facilitated by platforms such as the China Financial Futures Exchange (CFFEX), a platform founded by Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, Dalian Commodity Exchange, Shanghai Stock Exchange, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2006 (China Financial Futures Exchange and NASDAQ OMX Sign MOU). Despite the high volume of crude oil being transported to countries such as China and Japan, no Asian oil benchmark exists as of yet. Most oil consumed in the Asia-Pacific region is supplied by Middle Eastern downstream providers and is assessed according to the Dubai-Oman benchmark. As such, some market participants believe that the Asian benchmark should officially be made Dubai-Oman, as this benchmark accurately reflects the price of the product consumed in many Asian countries. Other market participants believe that Brent crude should be used as the Asian benchmark, as Brent crude is a mature, very liquid international benchmark. The expanding Asian oil market also necessitates new oil assessments that are more reflective of trades, bids, and offers made in this region. ZEs DataWatch magazine makes frequent reference to a high volume of modified or new oil assessments that attempt to take into account the price of crude imported and exported in this region. For example, from May 1, 2014, Platts will relocate many of their Asia crude assessments from RI (London-close crude assessments) to RP (Singapore-close crude assessments) in the Platts Market Assessment database to reflect the fact that those assessments represent the value of crudes at the close of trading in Asia (Platts Proposes Relocation of Certain Asia Crude Data). In other words, Platts has updated its assessment calculation methodology for a variety of Asian crude assessments to reflect the high volume of trades conducted during the Singapore trading day as opposed to Londons trading day. Further, on October 1, 2013, Platts requested feedback on a proposal to discontinue its entire range of domestic and China fuel oil and dirty tanker assessments as a result of the declining Chinese domestic fuel oil market (Platts to End China Fuel Oil Assessments). Organizations like Platts and Argus continue to increase assessments of imported Asian oil, as Asian domestic supply is certainly in decline. More assessments will likely continue to be developed for the Asian oil market to reflect this regions increasing industrial growth and subsequent need for imported oil.
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Figure 4: EIAs Top Global Oil Importers in 2012 According to the EIAs information from figure 4, the global oil industry in the twenty-first century has been largely controlled by Middle Eastern countries and the United States, who monopolize global oil production. Countries in the Asia-Pacific region have been rapidly consuming a large portion of these oil resources.
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Conclusion
The worlds most highly populated countries are located in the Asia-Pacific region. Many of these countries are rapidly industrializing; the volumes of energy they require to sustain their demands and to support burgeoning infrastructure are enormous. Assessments providers will continue to develop new assessments and modify existing assessments if their assessment prices are to be accurate reflections of the real value of physical oil. Moreover, a popular opinion in the current market is that an Asian benchmark will soon be established, given the high consumption of global oil resources in this region. n
About ZE PowerGroup Inc.: ZE is an experienced software and strategic consulting firm that combines energy industry expertise with advanced software development capabilities. The company possesses deep industry knowledge and comprehensive operational experience. ZE is the developer of ZEMA Suite, a sophisticated Enterprise Data Management and Analysis solution built to meet the specific challenges of energy and commodity market participants. About ZEMA: ZEMA is an enterprise data management suite designed for collecting data and performing complex analysis. ZEMA replaces fragmented data collection and analysis processes with a sophisticated, unified, and automated data management system. Each ZEMA component can perform as an independent product; this means greater flexibility when integrating ZEMA into your organization. ZEMA is consistently ranked #1 for preferred system, #1 for ease of system integration, and #1 for customer service. ZEMA is easy to use and backed by our support team around the clock. Disclaimer: ZE DataWatch is a report comprised of data updates and expectations for energy and commodity markets, powered by ZEMA. The information contained in ZE DataWatch is for information purposes only. Although ZE PowerGroup believes the information in this report is correct and attempts to keep the information current, ZE PowerGroup does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information. Information in this report is not intended to provide financial, legal, accounting, or tax advice and should not be relied upon in that regard. ZE PowerGroup is not responsible in any manner whatsoever for direct, indirect, special, or consequential damages, howsoever caused, arising out of the use of this report.
December 2013
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