Flood and Drainage Assessment for the Kyagalanyi Plot, Namanve Industrial Park

14 June 2012

Eng. Dr. Henry K. Ntale Vala Associates (Ltd). P. O. Box 5933, Kampala, Uganda Email: hntale@vala.biz Phone: +256 702 746 384

Executive Summary
This report presents the preliminary hydrological and hydraulic model set-up results for Namanve hydrological basin. This exercise involved several components including: identification of the most sensitive model parameters, model calibration and sensitivity analysis for Namanve hydrological basin. The result give a clearer understanding of the hydrological response of Namanve catchments and the potential application in terms of hydrological structures design in relation to the fluctuating stream flows of Namanve river site . The Water Resources Modelling involved conceptualisation and developed of a hydrologic model and development of a GIS database for Namanve basin. Several meteorological datasets were acquired for effective modelling; however, the continued lack of daily stream flows limited the effective calibration of the delineated hydrological basins. A basin-wide summary of the simulated water resources components is presented to give a general insight into the water resources components to the basin. However, additional data especially daily stream flows are required to improve the water resources calibration/simulation. A simple sensitivity study helped reduce the dimensionality of the calibration challenge and for the delineated basin, evaluation of the hydrological performance of the SWAT model on a daily/monthly time resolution reveal the hydrological patterns and the sensitivity of hydrological variables to input rainfall datasets and parameter estimates. The results of the water resources model presented represent a first attempt to comprehensive modelling of the water resources of the Namanve river basin. At present, the basin has limited capacity in terms of gauge network for hydrolometeorological monitoring and operations, hence additional model calibration is required given the availability of reliable flow data to the basin, which may also require the installation of new data collection stations in the basin. New equipment for measuring both climatic and hydrologic variables is needed to complement the limited data available in the regions and once the network is setup, it should be ensured that all stations have complete installation of hydrometeorological equipment to guarantee effective monitoring of hydrological events. The Hydraulic modelling results were achieved using the TRRL hydraulic model and based on the hydrological modelling results for Namanve basin.

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Table of Contents

Introduction....................................................................................... 1
1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 Background.................................................................................................................................. 1 Assessment objectives................................................................................................................ 1 Scope of analysis ......................................................................................................................... 1 Outputs ........................................................................................................................................ 1

On Site Conditions .......................................................................... 2

2.1 2.2 2.3 Current drainage status .............................................................................................................. 2 Site climate conditions ............................................................................................................... 2 Land cover, and vegetation at the site ..................................................................................... 3

3 4

Brief overview of the methodology used to compute flood flows .. 5 Flood analysis in the vicinity of Kyagalanyi Plot ............................ 9
4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 Flood flows in the Namanve channel east of the Kyagalanyi Plot ..................................... 9 Impact of land cover area changes to Flood Flow in the Namanve channel ................. 10 Determination of the flood inundation levels;..................................................................... 10 Other drainage considerations ................................................................................................ 10 Safe disposal of offsite and onsite storm runoff ........................................................ 10 The proposed interventions within the overall NIP drainage master plan ............ 10

4.4.1 4.4.2

Conclusions and Recommendations ............................................. 11

5.1 5.2 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................... 11 Recommendations .................................................................................................................... 12

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List of Figures

Figure 2-1 Current Site Map........................................................................................................................ 2 Figure 2-2 Average Rainfall for the Namanve area ................................................................................. 3 Figure 4-1 Cross sectional area of the Namanve drainage channel .................................................... 10 Figure 4-2 500-year Flood plain................................................................................................................ 10 Figure 4-3 Proposed drainage channels for the Kyagalanyi Plot ........................................................ 10

List of Tables
No table of figures entries found.

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1
1.1

INTRODUCTION
Background

Kyagalanyi Coffe Ltd plans to construct a warehouses and a processing plant for a coffee business hence a water resource modelling exercise is required to the Namanve Basin to assess and analyse the basin water resources using the spatial distribution of available natural resources including land use, soils and water resources' components. The variability in precipitation patterns influences the hydrological performance in the basin which in turn may affect several economic variables in the region, including the drainage levels after construction of the proposed industrial park, hence the development of suitable water resources models as tool to investigate the safe construction levels from a 500 Year flood levels is investigated in this study and the management of the stormwater that may occur after such floods

1.2

Assessment objectives

The objective of the water resources modelling exercise was to conceptualise and develop a hydrologic model for water resources assessment for the delineated Namanve basin. This involved developing a GIS-Database to support the water modelling and provide an archive for the water resources and hydrologic data in the basin. A physically-based simulation model (as compared to conceptual models) was desired for the simulation of the water balance in the basin. This required long term time-series of daily hydrological and climatic inputs for calibration and validation. A number of automated calibration and validation routines that exist were applied for this assignment, however, successful application and validation of such water resources model structures requires extensive daily observed datasets.

1.3

Scope of analysis

Using a suitable climatic datasets, hydrological and hydro-geological datasets and information related to the Namanve basin, the study was limited to identification of the hydrological system - upstream of the proposed development site; simulation and assessment of hydrological basins using an appropriate simulation model to achieve the project objectives

1.4

Outputs

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2
2.1

ON SITE CONDITIONS
Current drainage status
and the major sub-basins that were considered for water resources

The delineated hydrological basin the project are lies in central Uganda towards the North of Lake Victoria modelling are presented in (Figures 2.1).

Figure 2-1 Site Maps of the Hydrological streams location to Namanve Basin, Digital Elevation Model (left) and deliberated hydrological sub basins and stream network (right).

2.2

Site climate conditions

The proposed site falls within climatic Zone B according to the Uganda Hydroclimatic Study (2001). The zone receives an average of 1,270 mm of rainfall which is principally spread over 2 rainy seasons: The long rains of March to May and the short rains of September to November (Figure 2.2).

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Figure 2-2 Average Rainfall for the Namanve area (source: Hydroclimatic study (2001))

2.3

Land cover, and vegetation at the site

The spatial datasets that were available included the following: (a) Land use (spatial) datasets: This dataset was available from several national spatial database including the FAO archives (http://www.africover.org/system/africover_data.php); and the USGS Global Land Cover Characterization (GLCC) database (http://edcsns17.cr.usgs.gov/glcc/glcc.html). The spatial distributions of land cover (shown in Figure 2.2 ) reveal that the basins are mainly overlain by dry land and savannah; (b) Land cover / Land use and Soil data: This information can be acquired from FAO archives, mainly available as national Multipurpose Africover Databases on Environmental Resources (MADE). This may be available from several sources including http://www.africover.org/system/africover_data.php. The spatial distribution is shown in shown in Figure 2.2 ) (c) Soil datasets (spatial datasets): This dataset can be acquired from FAO archives, mainly available as national spatial datasets. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO, 1995) provides almost 5,000 soil types at a spatial resolution of 10 km with soil properties for two layers (0 - 30 cm and 30 - 100 cm depth). Further soil properties (e.g. particle-size distribution, bulk density, organic carbon content, available water capacity, and saturated hydraulic conductivity) can be obtained from Reynolds et al. (1999) or by using pedotransfer functions implemented in the model Rosetta (http://www.ars.usda.gov/Services/docs.htm?docid=8953). The spatial distributions of soil-types is shown in Figure and the basins are mainly underlain by Af32-2ab-3 and Fo44-2ab-500 soil systems.

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(d) Digital Elevation Model (DEM). This can be acquired from several public domains including http://www2.jpl.nasa.gov. The other source for a DEM is the Geological Surveys (USGS) public domain geographic database HYDRO1k (http://edc.usgs.gov/products/elevation/gtopo30/hydro/index.html), which is derived from a 30 arc-second digital elevation model of the world GTOPO30. The preferred scale of the DEM should be higher than "30m". The spatial distribution is shown in Figure 2.2. (e) Spatial distribution of major water abstraction points: Time-series of the several water users (abstractions) were required and this included, water abstraction for water supply, irrigation, etc. However, the basin is still ungagged and this information was not readily available. (f) Climatological time-series of Precipitation, Temperature, Hydrological flows and other climate and hydrological variables. This data is mainly archived at the national meteorological and hydrological institute the Directorate of Water Development (DWD) - Uganda.

Figure 2.2. The distribution of Soil types (left) and Land use types (right).

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BRIEF

OVERVIEW OF THE METHODOLOGY USED TO COMPUTE FLOOD FLOWS Hydrological Simulation:

3.1

The objective of the water resources modelling exercise was to conceptualise and develop a hydrologic model for water resources assessment for the delineated Namanve basin, which involved developing a GIS-Database to support the water modelling and provide an archive for the water resources and hydrologic data in the basin. A physically-based simulation model (as compared to conceptual models) was desired for the simulation of the water balance in the basin, this required long term time-series of daily hydrological and climatic inputs for calibration and validation. A number of automated calibration and validation routines that exist were applied for this assignment, however, successful application and validation of such water resources model structures requires extensive daily observed datasets. A brief description of the methodologies employed for the water resource modelling is briefly described in the following steps: (a). Review the available datasets & information on water resources; Identification of major sub-basins for the Namanve river system upstream of the proposed development site; (b). Validation of the findings and acquisition of supplementary data and information involved identification of key data collection points for hydrological model, analysis of existing climatic data, hydrological and hydro-geological data and information; (c). Simulation and assessment of hydrological basins for the delineated river basins and aquifer systems in the Namanve basin involved the Identification of appropriate simulation model (the Soil Water and Assessment Tool (SWAT)); preprocessing of input datasets; model set-up; attempt on model calibration and validation; In this study, several return period floods have been quantified to size the structures, check if overtopping conditions occur and evaluate the proposed Hydraulics structure foundations against scour. 3.2 Flood Analysis Methods By definition flood flows are rare events and data availability is a major issue given that sometimes, the datasets are completely unavailable, especially for ungauged sites. For situations where datasets are available, extreme flood conditions may be such that no flow records can be considered suitable to provide the estimates required, i.e. extrapolation of rating curves. Consequently careful considerations have to be made using the available datasets to before selecting the analysis method to be considered. In order of preference, Watkins and Fiddes (1984) recommend the following methods for estimating design floods:

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a) Methods based on analysing flow data i.e. Extreme value analysis, Flood transposition, Slope-area method, Bank full flows b) Regional flood formulae like envelope curves c) Rainfall-runoff models i.e. the rational method, unit hydrograph techniques and synthetic hydrograph d) Hybrid methods based on a regionalization of rainfall runoff models i.e. the ORSTOM method (developed in West Africa), TRRL method (based on 14 catchments in Kenya and Uganda), the SCS curve number method and the generalized tropical flood model. The choice between these methods depends on whether the detailed shape of the flood or the probable maximum flood is needed and on the availability of the reliable flow records at the design site or nearby sites, whether on the same river or some other catchment and also depends on availability of datasets required and how suitable and reliable the datasets are.

For this assignment, statistical analysis using flood frequency estimation was carried out to derive the design flood magnitudes. However, no flow data is available onsite, hence the flow model was developed as prescribed before and the TRRL East African model was also applied to provide estimates for the design flows. The advantages of relaying on the TRRL method involve the following: It can be experimentally derived and tested using measurements of rainfall and runoff for any representative catchments in and it is specifically tailored for use in flood estimation for highways bridges and culverts. The method has been developed extensively by use of reliable rainfall records for over 867 stations available in the archives of the East African Meteorological Department with a record length of 10 - 40 years. Depth-duration data were obtained for stations in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda (Busia, Kasese, Wadelai, Matuga, Atumatak, Entebbe, Gulu, Kampala, Jinja, Mbarara, Tororo, and Fort Portal). It incorporates both the Unit Hydrograph (UH) approaches and regionalization techniques. It was designed to provide estimates of peak discharges at recurrence intervals of 5-25 and up to an upper limit of 50 - 100 Years for small catchments of up to 200 km2. Areal reduction factors for East African rain gauge networks as well as variations in vegetation are also incorporated in the model

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3.3 The Flood Frequency Analysis Methodology The methodology used for estimating the design flood for different recurrence intervals using statistical analysis of extremes was as follows: From a record of daily historical flows (or simulated flows), the annual maximum values (the maximum daily flow for each year) were selected; From a number of candidate statistical distributions the distribution that best fits the annual maximum flows was selected. Four candidate distributions were selected for the current study namely: Normal, Lognormal, Extreme Value and Weibull distributions; The parameters of the distribution were estimated and the growth curve derived; The flood flows corresponding to the set return periods at the gauging stations were estimated; A suitable factor to convert mean daily flows into peak flow values was applied. The factor takes into account the shape of the flood hydrograph and depends on, among others, the catchment size, time taken to route the flow through channels and available storage (in lakes and swamps). The factor can vary between 1 and 2.5 for large catchment. For smaller catchments, a much higher factor may be needed; Where the gauging station location is different from the bridge site the flows were transferred to the bridge site using the Flood Transposition method. In this method, it is assumed that the catchment characteristics for the catchment contributing the two (gauging station and bridge site) do not vary considerably and the flood generation mechanisms are similar. In this case, the flows at the two points are proportional to the areas of their catchments. Therefore, the flow at the bridge site is simply estimated as the flow at the gauging site multiplied by the ratio of the two areas. 3.4 The TRRL model methodology The steps involved in estimating the design flood for different recurrence intervals using the TRRL Model were derived from Watkins and Fiddes (1984) by estimating the following: a) Catchment area (A) to the basin, upstream to the bridge site; the catchment slope and channel slope; b) Catchment type and the surface cover flow time (TS). This may be computed using equation 7.27 and Table 7.16; c) The soil type, either by geotechnical investigation or by use of available soil maps. Soil permeability class and slope class were established using Table 7.10 and 7.11 and, in connection with Table 7.12 or 7.13, the basic runoff coefficient (CS) was established;

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d) The land use factor (CL) and catchment wetness factor (CW) from Tables 7.14 and 7.15 e) The runoff coefficient (CA) using equation 7.22; f) The base time (TB) is computed from equation 7.29; factor to take into account that tropical catchments that rarely receive rainfall uniformly over the entire catchment; h) The design storm rainfall (P) for each recurrence interval, for a selected base time; i) The average flow (Q ) during base time was estimated from the following relationship: g) The Kampala Equation (equation 4.11) was used to estimate the areal reduction

Q
j)

C A PA 360 TB
) (Q

The design peak

was the computed from

FQ Q
Where and appropriate value of F is taken from Table 7.17 3.6 Flood estimates Given that a Frequency analysis approach is followed in relationship with the TRRL method, a method with higher estimates was selected for use in hydraulic design. This approach was used for Namanve proposed bridge site and the simulated hydrological basin data to the delineated hydrological basin at the proposed Site.

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4
4.1

FLOOD ANALYSIS IN THE VICINITY OF KYAGALANYI PLOT

Flood flows in the Namanve channel east of the Kyagalanyi Plot

Applying the methodology described in the precious section, the 50, 100, 500 year flood estimates that will pass through the unlined Namanve channel east of the Kyagalanyi plot have been estimated in the Table 4.1.

Table 4.1. Flood estimates that will pass through the unlined Namanve channel
Parameter Area Catchment slope Slope class Surface cover flow time Soil class Basic runoff coefficient Land use factor Catchment wetness factor Percentage of runoff Base time 2yr, 24 hr rainfall 10:2 year ratio Return period (Years) n:2 year ratio Constant b Constant n Area reduction factor Rainfall ratio n-yr 24-hr storm depth Average flow during base time Peak factor n-yr peak flow Figure 3.11 Table 4.6 Table 4.5 Equation 4.11 (T=8) Equation 4.3 b n ARF RR Description km2 Average Table 7.11 Forest, very steep (Table 7.16) Permeable (Table 7.10) Table 7.12 Dense vegetation - Table 7.14 Dry zone, perennial streams - Table 7.15 Equation 7.22 Equation 7.29 millimeters - Figure 3.6 Table 3.6 Abrev A Sr S Ts (hr) I Cs CL Cw Ca TB Return Period (n)- years 10 1 9% 4 2 3 45% 1 0.50 23% 3.9 70 1.64 10 1.65 0.3 0.95 0.96 0.85 94.3 Equation 7.31 Forest zone - Table 7.17 m3/s 2 1.7 3 25 1 9% 4 2 3 45% 1.0 0.50 23% 3.9 70 1.64 25 1.96 0.3 0.95 0.96 0.85 112.0 2 1.7 3 50 1 9% 4 2 3 45% 1.0 0.50 23% 3.9 70 1.64 50 2.20 0.3 0.95 0.96 0.85 125.6 2 1.7 3 100 1 9% 4 2 3 45% 1.0 0.50 23% 3.9 70 1.64 100 2.44 0.3 0.95 0.96 0.85 139.2 2 1.7 4 500 1 9% 4 2 3 45% 1.0 0.50 23% 3.9 70 1.64 500 2.99 0.3 0.95 0.96 0.85 170.9 3 1.7 5

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4.2

Impact of land cover area changes to Flood Flow in the Namanve channel

This should address the following issue: How will this value change when the rest of Namanve area is built up? (again another set of points or curves) The Flood values we get here are the ones we are going for the design

4.3

Determination of the flood inundation levels;

Should answer the following: What is the likely flood level (inundation) of say 100, or 500 year flood level? (In meters above sea level). Therefore what is the best level to which the foundation should be set in order to be protected from the 500 year flood level? (after the getting the flood magnitude, assume steady flow in the channel rich whose cross-section we already have and get the maximum depth using the simple mannings equation!).

Figure 4-1 Cross sectional area of the Namanve drainage channel

Figure 4-2 500-year Flood plain

4.4
4.4.1

Other drainage considerations

Safe disposal of offsite and onsite storm runoff

Deal with the following: You recall the culvert crossing the road going direct into the Kyagalanyi plot. Assuming a 100 year flood, what should we expect to cross at this point? What are the sizing of the open channel drainage which should be put up to get rid of this discharge and the runoff generated internally [in the Plot] safely into the Namanve channel?

Figure 4-3 Proposed drainage channels for the Kyagalanyi Plot

4.4.2

The proposed interventions within the overall NIP drainage master plan

5. How do the proposed interventions in (4) above fit in with the overall Namanve Industrial Park? Thats why I want you to visit the NIV office to find out this information

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5.1

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Conclusions

The hydrological and hydraulic modelling work presented here involved data collection, hydrological model set-up, identification of the most sensitive model parameter, model calibration and sensitivity analysis for the Namanve basin. The main output of the strategy was a clearer understanding of the hydrological and hydrological response of Namanve catchments and the potential use of these hydrological responses to facilitate the design of the hydraulic structure being proposed in the basin. The Water Resources Model results presented facilitate the conceptualisation and development of additional foundation for hydraulic assessment in the Navamve region. Several meteorological datasets were acquired for effective modelling; however, the continued lack of daily stream flows to the Namanve still limited the effective calibration of the delineated hydrological basin. However, several attempts were carried out to ensure effective estimation of the Water resources for the basin. A basin-wide summary of the simulated water resources' components was presented and most of the results from this study provide a foundation for water resources estimates and further work.

Limitations faced were mainly due to the limited hydrologic data availability, hence additional data collection for Namanve basin is essential for improving the estimates and the effectiveness of hydrological simulations. Additionally, use of remote sensing products can also be useful in the short term and the results of this study create a basis for additional investigations in water resource modelling in terms of model set-up and simulation methodology. Additional data especially daily stream flows at several locations in the hydrological region is required to improve the water resources calibration/simulation. The available hydrological and climatological data could be sparse and not free of errors. The climate in the region is rather complex and for accurate use of hydrological models, representative precipitation sequences are required for additional calibration. Evaluation of the hydrological performance of the SWAT model on a daily/monthly time resolution should reveal the hydrological patterns and the sensitivity of hydrological variables to input rainfall datasets and parameter estimates. A simple sensitivity study helped reduce the dimensionality of the calibration challenge. The TRRM model applied for

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the hydraulics modelling presented reliable results for Flood computation for reliable designs of the proposed park at different design return periods.

5.2

Recommendations

The present hydrological/hydraulic modelling results present a baseline for the proposed structural developments, however, additional modelling is required given additional datasets are made available for effective hydrological simulations and there is also need to intensify the set-up of hydrometeorological monitoring network to enhance the capacity in terms of gauge network for hydrolometeorological monitoring and operations to ensure effective operation of the designed hydrometeorological networks. It should be ensured that installed stations in the basin have complete installation of equipment to guarantee effective monitoring of meteorological and hydrological events. Given the significant lack of hydrological and Meteorological data required for water resources monitoring and modelling, it is recommended that weather stations should be deployed after an appropriate study to provides a background for further details hydraulic studies for the proposed industrial development in the Namanve region.

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