Another troublemaking project

of the Space Frontier Foundation

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 Way back in early 2005…
• CEV (“Orion”) was not aimed at ISS
• Innovative architectures considered
• Admiral Steidle proposed a “nontraditional
crew” development effort to address
humans to LEO/ISS/CEV
– In part to avoid human rating CEV launcher
• NASA forecast a “gap” of perhaps 4 years
between Shuttle retirement and CEV
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 Then came Mike
• We must get rid of the Gap!
• “It is unseemly in the extreme” for the U.S.
[read: NASA] to not have a human launch
capability [read: government-owned &
contractor operated system] – Dr. Griffin
• Suddenly the Goal wasn’t returning NASA
to exploring beyond Earth orbit…
• …but recreating Gemini on Steroids
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 Some doubted hysteria
• Is it really a national security threat to not
launch astronauts for 3-4 years?
– So… Iraq became a quagmire because the
Shuttle was grounded?
• Doesn’t there need to be a gap so best
people can complete Shuttle flyout and
then go to work on new system?
• Isn’t the goal affordable/sustainable
exploration/development/settlement?
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 Smartest guys in the room
• They decided that only pressure to launch
astronauts to ISS…
• …whose remaining research they killed…
• would provide political support to fund…
• …the only launch system development we
would need until we got bored with Mars
• Shuttle-derived approach would close the
Gap to just 2012… Safe, Simple, Soon
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So how has that worked out?

• NASA’s current internal forecast of Orion

and Ares I’s first human launch is 2017
• At a cost to IOC of $44B (up from $27B)
• So Gap has grown by 3 years from VSE
• But 5 years since ESAS 3.5 years ago
• Or approximately 1.3 years per year
– A new NASA metric: YPYS
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So much for new exploration
• No way NASA gets to Moon by 2019
• If it only launches Ares 1 in 2017
• May not get there by 2029
• If ever
• And it won’t be “affordable or sustainable”
• So NASA will have betrayed a third
presidential goal for human space flight

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NASA failed by its own standard
• You don’t have to argue that Ares 1 will
never work
• Or will be too expensive to operate
• You simply have to point out that the
GAP has increased from 2 to 6-7 years

• ESAS & Ares 1 are… UNSEEMLY

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The Opportunity for Change
• With a new Administration and a new
Congress we can fix mistakes
• The fastest/surest/safest/cheapest approach
is to use existing/developing comm’l ELVs
• To launch simple human-carrying spacecraft

• i.e. COTS-D, or “Nontraditional Crew”

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 The Campaign
• Space Frontier Foundation believes it is time
to declare Ares 1 and ESAS a failure.
• NASA should use stimulus funds to stimulate
a new human ETO industry by funding
multiple COTS D concepts
• Launch Orion on EELV
• Pursue *cheapest* medium-heavy option for
exploration missions & intermodal demos

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 It’s easy to pick the right path
• As long as you…

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