Case Study On Milkfish Production of Illera Fish Farm

Case Study on Milkfish
Production of Illera Fish Farm
LIEZL GRACE M. JARDO

PHOEBE T. PECHON
JOHN PAUL S. SUABERON
(Researchers)
Presented to
DR. JOY C LIZADA
Acknowledgement
We greatly acknlowledge the contributions of the following individuals whom without their
help and support, this forecasting paper would not have been possible:
to Marguerite Marie Illera and her family for providing us with the data set and other
information about their farm which we greatly needed;
to Jardos Residence for welcoming and accommodating us during the drafting of this paper;
to Tita Guia Martin for allowing us to stay overnight in her boarding house as we make
this paper;
to our families and friends for their moral support;
to Dr. Joy C. Lizada for her guidance and mentoring;
and to the God Almighty, for the wisdom and perseverance that he has bestowed upon us;
and to those who in one way or another has helped in the success of this paper.
The Researchers
Table of Contents
Acknowledgement....................................................................................................................................................1
Table of Contents ......................................................................................................................................................2
List of Tables...............................................................................................................................................................3
List of Figures .............................................................................................................................................................3
List of Appendices ....................................................................................................................................................3
Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................4
Objectives of the Study ...........................................................................................................................................6
Scope and Limitations.............................................................................................................................................6
Methodology ...............................................................................................................................................................6
i.
Data Preparation ........................................................................................................................................7
ii.
Sequence Chart Creation .........................................................................................................................7
iii. Benchmark Setting ....................................................................................................................................7

iv.
Data Pocessing.............................................................................................................................................7
v.
Summary and Implication ................................................................................................................... 10
vi.
Creation of Figures ................................................................................................................................. 11
Presentation of Data ............................................................................................................................................. 11

Forecasts and Accuracy Testing ...................................................................................................................... 15
Naive Forecasting Model ..................................................................................................................................8
Moving Average ....................................................................................................................................................8
Simple Exponential Smoothing ......................................................................................................................8
Time Series Regression .....................................................................................................................................9
Linear Trend Exponential Smoothing .........................................................................................................9
Non Linear Exponential Smoothing .......................................................................................................... 10
Summary/Implications ....................................................................................................................................... 20
Appendices ............................................................................................................................................................... 22
Bibliography ............................................................................................................................................................ 55
List of Tables
Table 1. Production of milkfish (kg) by Illera Fish Farm. ................................................................... 11
Table 2. Calendar of milkfish farmer's in Dumangas. ................ Error! Bookmark not defined.
Table 3. Summary of Forecasting Models.................................................................................................... 21
Table 4. Nave Forecasting Model ................................................................................................................... 23
Table 5. Moving Average, N=3 ............................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined.
Table 6. Identification of , =0.1 ................................................................................................................... 28
Table 7. Simple Exponential Smoothing, =0.9 ........................................................................................ 34
Table 8. Linear regression calculations. .......................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.
Table 9.Time Series Regression ....................................................................................................................... 35
Table 10. Exponential smoothing with a linear trend, 1= .90, 2=.01 .......................................... 45
Table 11. Non- Linear Smoothing, 1= .90, 2=.0, =.7 .......... Error! Bookmark not defined.
List of Figures
Figure 1.Data Analysis Process ................................................................................................... 11
Figure 2. Annual production of milkfish Chanos chanos in kilograms (Kg)............................. 13
Figure 3.Production of milkfish Chanos chanos in kilograms (Kg) per quarter. ..................... 14
Figure 4. Moving averages vs data. ................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined.
Figure 5. Forecast vs data with simple exponential smoothing. .. Error! Bookmark not defined.
Figure 6. Forecast using the time regression vs the data. ............ Error! Bookmark not defined.
Figure 7. Comparison of exponential smoothing with a linear trend data vs forecast. .... Error!
Bookmark not defined.
Figure 8. Comparison of exponential smoothing with a non-linear trend data vs forecast.
........................................................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.
List of Appendices
Appendix 1. Nave Forecasting Model........................................................................................... 23
Appendix 2. Moving Average ...................................................................................................... 24
Appendix 3. Simple Exponential Smoothing.............................................................................. 28
Appendix 4. Time Series Regression .......................................................................................... 35
Appendix 5. Linear Exponential Smoothing .............................................................................. 37
Appendix 6. Non Linear Smoothing............................................................................................ 47
Appendix 7. Milkfish production report by Illera fish pond as of September 15, 2013 ............... 54
Introduction
In a country where fish is one of the main sources of animal protein, aquaculture
or fish culture can be expected to play a comparatively big role in supplying fish.
Milkfish aquaculture in the Philippines dates back to the 14th century. In 2004 and
2005 Philippines ranked first among the top milkfish producers in the world with a
total production of 273,456 MT and 289,000 metric tons. Today the country
produces about 391,983 metric tons, valued at Php 35.5 million. (Bureau of
Agricultural Statistics, 2012) and almost 99% of the harvest is consumed
domestically.
Milkfish is a mainstay in the Philippine diet and traditionally considered the
national fish. It is farmed under conditions ranging from freshwater ponds to
marine pens, but mostly in brackish ponds. The province of Iloilo is one of the top
milkfish producing provinces in the country, with production reaching 24,744 tons.
The towns of Barotac Nuevo and Dumangas, in particular, have extensive fishpond
areas leased from the government (FLAs) dedicated to milkfish farming.
Illeras fish farm is one of the aquaculture businesses found in Dumangas Iloilo.
It started last 2003, as a partnership between a bachelor and his brother in law. The
farm was approximately 8 hectares when it started and it operated quite some years
before the bachelor bought out his brother in laws shares. The brother in law
ventured to other businesses causing him to agree and sell his shares on the fish
farm. The farm cultures milkfish since it is the most profitable and most efficient fish
to culture in the said place. It is the most popular seafood dish among Filipinos and
is mostly used for Iloilos best cuisine. It is a tough and sturdy fish that could easily
adapt to its environment making it suitable for aquaculture and cultivation.
Through the years the farm experienced circumstances that caused some
hindrances to its operation. Just like the climate change, the unexpected typhoons
(Frank 2008) that caused flash floods in various places in Iloilo, fish kill (2011) and
a lot more. Yet, because of good business operations, with the help of some fish
technologies, Illeras farm was able to overcome these hindrances and sustained its
operations causing its high production.
Today, the fish farm is approximately 15 hectares with 2 underdeveloped areas.
For 10 years it continued to culture milkfish. It plans to culture more aquatic
animals in the future like shrimps, tilapia and others. But in the mean time, it
focuses on milkfish and how to culture it best using some fish technologies to
increase production. The owner wanted to maximize its profit first using the
resources it has and expects to someday expand more and culture its desired
aquatic animals.
The purpose of this study is to forecast the last quarter of the year 2013 in
Illeras farm. Through this, the owner will be able to predict possible future
production, whether it may be profitable or not. It will also help the owner know if
the current factors of production contribute to future profitability or loss of the fish
farm. If there will be loss, it may help the owner analyze where the cause of the
inefficiency and may be able to plan out future course of action applicable in order
to eradicate the loss make it profitable instead.
Objectives of the Study
To be able to analyze the data gathered using different models of forecasting and
apply it to predict the future production of milkfish at Illeras fish farm.
To be able to identify the effect of technology, climate change and supply shocks on
the production of milkfish at Illeras fish farm
To be able to relate the analysis of the case to the future state of the milkfish
industry in Iloilo Province.
Scope and Limitations

The study limits its scope to the data which was strictly gathered from Illera Fish
Farm located at Dumangas, Iloilo. Further, it is only limited to Milkfish Chanos Chanos
cultured in brackish water fish ponds of the said fish farm. It merely focuses on the volume
of production in kilogram (kg) and excludes its monetary value in peso () from the
first quarter of 2006 to the second quarter of 2013, which is used to forecast the
production of milkfish for the third period.
Methodology
The study utilizes both quantitative and qualitative data collection tools but still
rooted in a qualitative epistemological position that recognizes the importance of locating
the research within an economic, technological and environmental context. It also takes
seriously the social construction of these contexts and the identities the participants
construct within them.
The study used a milkfish production in kilograms (kg) data set from Illera Fish
Farm located at Dumangas, Iloilo to be examined using different forecasting and accuracy
tests (Nave Forecasting Model, Moving Average, Simple Exponential Smoothing, Time
Series Regression, Linear Trend Exponential Smoothing, Non linear Exponential Smoothing).
The data set was collected on a quarterly basis from the first quarter 2006 to the second
quarter of 2013.
This study focused on milkfish production forecasting. The data analysis process
involved six procedures, as shown in Fig. 1 and described below.
i.
Data Preparation
Time series data from the first quarter of 2006 to the second quarter of 2013 was
used to prepare a data set for 30 quarters from the last quarter of 2013 to the last quarter
of 2015 forecasting.
ii.
Sequence Chart Creation

A sequence chart to consider milkfish production trends from the first quarter of
2006 to the second quarter of 2013 was plotted before the forecasts were created. This
chart displayed milkfish production trends to examine a seasonality factor within the trends,
so that suitable forecasting techniques were selected and utilized.
iii.
Benchmark Setting
The Nave Forecasting Model was the first to be made to seve as the bench mark
model in order to check the accuracy of each models used (Moving Average, Simple
Exponential Smoothing, Time Series Regression, Linear Trend Exponential Smoothing, Non
linear Exponential Smoothing).
The study uses the Mean Square Error (MSE) to measure the accuracy of the
forecast over Mean Absolute Forecast Error or MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) and the
Mean Percentage Error (MAPE) which are the other possible accuracy evaluation because
MSE gives more weight to large errors because they are squared and large forecast errors
can be extremely disruptive.
iv.
Data Pocessing
Moving Average, Simple Exponential Smoothing, Time Series Regression, Linear
Trend Exponential Smoothing and Non linear Exponential Smoothing were used
for
forecast and was immediately compared to the Nave Model for deciding whether the Model
is appropriate.
The models MSE must beat that of the benchmark model in order to be an
appropriate model forecast to be considered.
Naive Forecasting Model

The formula for the Nave Forecasting Model which is the bench mark model
is:
Ft+1= Xt
where F is the forecast and X is the observed value. The subscript t is the index for the time
period as used in Appendix 1.
The formula for the forecast error in each period is :
et= Xt- Ft
where et is the error, Xt is the Data and Ft is the forecast as used in Appendix 1.
The data set (30 quarters) was divided in half and the forecasting samples were
used to compute the mean error measures.
Moving Average
Unweighted moving average, N is assigned with a value of 3. The forecasting
equation is:
Ft+1= (Xt+ Xt-1+Xi-2)/3
Simple Exponential Smoothing

The formula for Simple Exponential Smoothing is:
Ft+1= Ft +e1
where Ft+1 is the forecast for t+1, Ft is the forecast for t and e1 is x Error in t.
For the model, F1 is equivalent to 727.00, the average of the warm- up sample. The
choice of has a considerable impact on the forecast. The best fitting value of is the one
8
with the minimum MSE in the warm- up sample and 0.9 was then identified as the best to
be used as shown in Appendix 3.
Time Series Regression

The time-series regression is an analysis used to compare the bulk of production
versus the quarter when it was produced.
The best fitting line is the one which minimizes the sum of the squares of the errors
between the estimated points on the line and the actual production using the least- squares
method with the formula: Ft= a + b where Ft= forecast for t, a= the point at which the trend
line intercepts the x (production) axis, b= slope of the trend line, t= time, in this case, the
quarter of the year.
The slope was computed using the formula:

b=(tX-n )/ (t2-n 2 ),
where b= slope, t= time, X= dependent variable (production), = mean of the values of t and
= mean of the values of X.
Intercepts are calculated by the formula:
A= - b
Linear Trend Exponential Smoothing

The errors are used to continually adjust the intercept and the slope of the trend
line where adjustments are made with a sequence of equations repeated each period:
Smoothed level at the end of t = forecast of t + 1 error in t,
Smoothed trend at the end of t= smoothed trend at the end of t- 1 + 2 error in t,
And forecast for t +1= smoothed level at the end of t + smoothed trend at the end of t.
In symbols, St= Ft+ 1et, , Tt=Tt-1 + 2et , Ft+1= St+Tt where St is the smoothed level and Tt
is the smoothed trend. Smoothing parameters are 1 and 2. The computations are shown in
shown in Appendix 5.
Since the intercept and slope of the regression are always used as the initial values
of S and T, a time series regression was first made on the warm- up sample.
S0= a, and T0=b where a= 109.1 and b= 56.1. 1= 0.9 and 2= 0.01 where the best
fitting 1 and 2 determined by finding the pair with the Minimum MSE computations as
shown in Appendix 5.
The formula for solving the error is: et= Xt-Ft.
Non Linear Exponential Smoothing

The formula for exponential smoothing model for nnon- linear trend is:
Smoothed level at the end of t = forecast for t + 1 error in t,
Smoothed trend at the end of t= smoothed trend at the end of t- 1 + 2 error in t,
and Forecast for t + 1 = smoothed level at the end of t + smoothed trend at the
end of t.
In symbols, St= F1+ 1, , Tt= t-1+ 2et Ft+1= St+ Tt.
Since the data set exhibits an exponential trend, >1 and is equal to 0.9. 1= 0.9 and
2= 0.01 were the best fitting 1 and 2 .
v.
Summary and Implication

Forecasting results from Moving Average, Simple Exponential Smoothing, Time
Series Regression, Linear Trend Exponential Smoothing, Non linear Exponential Smoothing
were analysed in order provide the figures for the forecast and to come up with the answers
to the objectives of this study and to conclude the implications of the findings.
10
vi.
Creation of Figures
Figures were created to present forecasting results, comparisons and errors so that
the manager or the decision maker may have a better understanding or vision before
planning and/or making decisions.
Figure 1.Data Analysis Process
Start Process
Data
Preparation
Sequence Chart
Creation
Benchmark
Setting
Data Processing
Summary and
Implication
Creation of
Figures
Process Finish
Presentation of Data
In order to forecast production of milkfish in kilogram (kg) by the Illera Fish Farm
for the last quarter of 2013, data set from the second quarter of 2006 to the second quarter
of 2013 were used for the forecasting models, totalling into 30 quarters.
The data set collected from the said farm is presented in the following table.
Table 1. Production of milkfish (kg) by Illera Fish Farm.
Year
Quarter
2006 2006-1
Production in Kgs
1
750
11
2006-2
685
2006-3
715
2006-4
775
2007 2007-1
795
2007-2
695
2007-3
705
2007-4
790
2008 2008-1
815
2008-2
10
685
2008-3
11
525
2008-4
12
635
2009 2009-1
13
825
2009-2
14
735
2009-3
15
895
2009-4
16
965
2010 2010-1
17
995
2010-2
18
865
2010-3
19
915
2010-4
20
995
2011 2011-1
21
1125
2011-2
22
905
2011-3
23
965
2011-4
24
1185
2012 2012-1
25
1245
2012-2
26
955
12
2012-3
27
1005
2012-4
28
1210
2013 2013-1
29
1285
2013-2
30
1065
TOTAL
26705
Figure 2. Annual production of milkfish Chanos chanos in kilograms (Kg).
Illera's Fish Farm Production (2006-2013)

1400
1200
P
r 1000
o
d
800
i
n
k
g
600
Production in Kgs
400
200
0
t-Quarter
The graph shows an increasing production in Illeras fish farm through the years,
except on the third quarter of year 2008. It was because of the Typhoon Frank (2008), the
most devastating typhoon in the history of province. It occurred midway between the
second and third quarter of the year.
The aftermath of Typhoon Frank is very evident, as such that it can be seen in the
sudden drop in production from 685 kg on the second quarter to 525 kg on the third
13
quarter of the year 2008. As shown in figure 2, comparing the data from 2007 to 2008, a
decrease in fish production can be seen thus, a total loss of 325 kg.
After the typhoon, the farm started to recover its resources. During the year 2010,
an overall expansion was done by the management, which caused a slight increase of only
30 kg in the production for the first and second quarter. The expansion brought more fish to
breed at the farm, resulting to a dramatic increase in production of 155 kg from the second
to third quarter.
Figure 3. A Comparison of Illeras Fish Production per Quarter from 2006-2013
1400
1200
p
r 1000
o
d 800
i
n
k
g
Q2
Q3
600
Q1
Q4
400
200
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
time- quarter
The fluctuations seen in figure 3 are caused different externalities such as weather
conditions, calamities, drought, tides and etc.
Extreme fluctuations as seen in figure 3 are due to an externality that happened in
Illeras farm. There is a dramatic decline in 2008 third and fourth production because of
Typhoon Frank. Dikes were destroyed which caused a big loss in the farms total fish
production. Other externalities that affect fish production are changing weather conditions
and natural calamities such as flash flood, droughts and tides.
14
Forecasts and Accuracy Testing

Results and discussions for the different forecasting models that were tested using
the raw and the deseasonalized data are presented below.
Naive Forecasting Model

Using the Nave Forecasting model, the following figure shows the forecasted production of
milkfish in kilogram over time t, per quarter. Both the raw and deseasonalized data were
presented.
Figure 4. Graph of naive forecasting model for production of milkfish.

1,600.00
1,400.00
P
r
o
d
i
n
K
g
1,200.00
1,000.00
Raw Xt
800.00
Deseasoned Xt
600.00
Nave
400.00
Deseasoned Nave
200.00
2013-3
2013-1
2012-3
2012-1
2011-3
2011-1
2010-3
2010-1
2009-3
2009-1
2008-3
2008-1
2007-3
2007-1
2006-3
2006-1
0.00
t- Quarter
The forecasted production of milkfish for the third quarter of 2013 using the Nave
Model is 1,065.00 and when deaseasonalized is equal to 979.22.
The Mean Square Error (MSE) was then computed by dividing the sum of the
squared error by the number of forecasting samples (15 forecasting samples). The MSE for
the Nave Forecasting model is 22,343.33 and the deseasonalized MSE is 75,437.27,
computations shown in Appendix 1 Table 4.
Moving Average
15
Results for the moving average model is ___________________________, the forecast for the third
quarter of 2013 is 1,141.25 and when deaseasonalized is 1,149.87. The forecast using the
moving averages versus the data is shown in Figure 2 above.
Figure 5. Moving average versus data.
1,600.00
P 1,400.00
r 1,200.00
o
1,000.00
d
800.00
Deseasoned Xt
400.00
Moving Average
200.00
Deseasoned MA
2013-3
2013-1
2012-3
2012-1
2011-3
2011-1
2010-3
2010-1
2009-3
2009-1
2008-3
2008-1
2007-3
2007-1
0.00
2006-3
k
g
600.00
2006-1
i
n
Raw Xt
Time- quarter
MSE of both the undeseasonalized and the deseasonalized data were computed and was
found out to be 16,292.71 (computation shown in Appendix 2) and 42,861.34 respectively.
Compared to the raw and the deseasonalized MSE of Nave Model, 22,343.33 and 75,437.27,.
this forecasting model is an improvement but (state why its not good to be used) this is not
a suitable model for forecasting the production of milkfish.
Simple Exponential Smoothing

From the computed Simple Exponential Model both raw and deseasonalized data, the
forecast for the third quarter of 2013 is 1,008.87 kg and 1,016.56, r espectively.
16
Figure 6. Forecast vs data with simple exponential smoothing.

1,600.00
1,400.00
P
r 1,200.00
o
1,000.00
d
i
n
k
g
Raw Xt
800.00
Deseasoned Xt
600.00
SES
400.00
Deseasoned SES
200.00
2013-3
2013-1
2012-3
2012-1
2011-3
2011-1
2010-3
2010-1
2009-3
2009-1
2008-3
2008-1
2007-3
2007-1
2006-3
2006-1
0.00
time- quarter
The MSE for raw and deseasonalized data for Simple Exponential Smoothing model
is 43,946.61 and 73,275.64 respectively as shown in Appendix 3., which is very high
compared to the MSE of the Nave Model Compared to the raw and the deseasonalized MSE
of Nave Model, 22,343.33 and 75,437.27, what is the decision.
Time Series Regression

As shown in the Figure 5, a straight line trend was drawn. Before coming out with the
increasing linear trend it was identified that the following figures are necessary, the slope
b=56.1, the intercept a=109.1, and the Ft =109.1 + 56.1t.
17
Figure 7. Forecast using the time regression vs the data.

1,600.00
1,400.00
P
r 1,200.00
o
1,000.00
d
i
n
k
g
Raw Xt
800.00
Deseasoned Xt
600.00
TSR
400.00
Deseasoned TSR
200.00
2013-3
2013-1
2012-3
2012-1
2011-3
2011-1
2010-3
2010-1
2009-3
2009-1
2008-3
2008-1
2007-3
2007-1
2006-3
2006-1
0.00
T- quarter
A good forecast was shown in the graph, forecasting the next harvest of 1,848.2 kg for raw
data and 735.66 kg for the deseasonalized data, if we ignore all other externalities such as
calamities, expansion, and etc., it is a good guess of what will be the harvest for the next few
quarters, however based on the historical data, the MSE of the Nave Model both raw and
deseasonalized are 22,343.33 and 75,437.27, better than the nave forecast but higher
compared to all others, which in this case, less accurate.
Linear Trend Exponential Smoothing
18
Figure 8. Comparison of exponential smoothing with a linear trend data vs forecast.

1,600.00
1,400.00
P
1,200.00
r
o
1,000.00
d
i
n
k
g
Raw Xt
800.00
Deseasoned Xt
600.00
ESLT
Deseasoned ESLT
400.00
200.00
2013-3
2013-1
2012-3
2012-1
2011-3
2011-1
2010-3
2010-1
2009-3
2009-1
2008-3
2008-1
2007-3
2007-1
2006-3
2006-1
0.00
time- quarter
Solving for Linear Exponential Smoothing is shown in Appendix 5.
There was an MSE of 27,146.89 for the raw data and 60,228.27 for the deseasonalized
data. Forecast for the total production of milkfish for the third quarter of 2013 for raw data
is 1,139.86 and for the deaseasonalized data is 1,345.13.
Non Linear Exponential Smoothing

The computations shows that there is an MSE of 19,596.88 for raw data and 56,851.15 for
the deaseasonalized data. Forecast for the third quarter of 2013 for raw data is 1,345.13 kgs
and 1,250.16 when deseasonalized.
19
Figure 9. Comparison of exponential smoothing with a non-linear trend data vs

forecast.
1,600.00
1,400.00
P
1,200.00
r
o
1,000.00
d
i
n
k
g
Raw Xt
800.00
Deseasoned Xt
600.00
SNT
Deseasoned SNT
400.00
200.00
2013-3
2013-1
2012-3
2012-1
2011-3
2011-1
2010-3
2010-1
2009-3
2009-1
2008-3
2008-1
2007-3
2007-1
2006-3
2006-1
0.00
time- quarter
Solutions for solving the forecast and error for this model is shown in Appendix 6.
Summary/Implications
The increasing trends in milkfish production is due to the different fisheries development,
technology and innovations that were used and adapted by the said fish farm as an answer
to the previous decreasing trends due to climate change, calamities and other supply shocks
that brought an adverse decline of production. They had been open to expansion of their
farms; training of their caretakers for better fish-handling and harvesting; built stronger
dikes that are able to hold strong water pressure; invested for a machine that collects
harmful algae and turn them into fish feeds; invested for a hatchery for fry stocking; exports
fresh milkfish not only to other towns inside Iloilo but also to Bacolod and Manila through
roll-on, roll-off ships at the Dumangas Port; and most importantly help maintains the
cleanliness of coasts alongside Iloilo.
20
Table 2. Summary of Forecasting Models

Quantity
Data
Nave
Forecast
Moving
Averages
Time Series
Regression
Xt
Ft
Ft+1 = (Xt + X t1 + Xt-2)/3
Ft= a + bt
0
2006-1
2006-2
2006-3
2006-4
2007-1
2007-2
2007-3
2007-4
2008-1
2008-2
2008-3
2008-4
2009-1
2009-2
2009-3
2009-4
2010-1
2010-2
2010-3
2010-4
2011-1
2011-2
2011-3
2011-4
2012-1
2012-2
2012-3
2012-4
2013-1
2013-2
2013-3
MSE
720.00
695.00
715.00
735.00
775.00
755.00
770.00
790.00
790.00
735.00
425.00
530.00
625.00
780.00
850.00
935.00
995.00
1,025.00
1,180.00
1,230.00
1,310.00
1,340.00
1,395.00
1,420.00
1,490.00
1,540.00
1,580.00
1,635.00
1,650.00
1,685.00
720.00
695.00
715.00
735.00
775.00
755.00
770.00
790.00
790.00
735.00
425.00
530.00
625.00
780.00
850.00
935.00
995.00
1,025.00
1,180.00
1,230.00
1,310.00
1,340.00
1,395.00
1,420.00
1,490.00
1,540.00
1,580.00
1,635.00
1,650.00
1,685.00
4,178.33
710.00
715.00
741.67
755.00
766.67
771.67
783.33
771.67
650.00
563.33
526.67
645.00
751.67
855.00
926.67
985.00
1,066.67
1,145.00
1,240.00
1,293.33
1,348.33
1,385.00
1,435.00
1,483.33
1,536.67
1,585.00
1,621.67
1,656.67
15,305.2
2
639.04
666.46
693.88
721.30
748.72
776.14
803.56
830.98
858.40
885.82
913.24
940.66
968.08
995.50
1,022.92
1,050.34
1,077.76
1,105.18
1,132.60
1,160.02
1,187.44
1,214.86
1,242.28
1,269.70
1,297.12
1,324.54
1,351.96
1,379.38
1,406.80
1,434.22
1,461.64
28,888.41
Simple
Exponenti
al
Smooting
Exponential
Smoothing
in a Linear
Trend
Forecast
Smoothing in
a Nonlinear
Trend
Forecast
Ft+1= Ft +
et, 1=.9
Ft 1=.9
2=.01
Ft 1=.9
2=.01
=.9
712.67
719.27
697.43
713.24
732.82
770.78
756.58
768.66
787.87
789.79
740.48
456.55
522.65
614.77
763.48
841.35
925.63
988.06
1,021.31
1,164.13
1,223.41
1,301.34
1,336.13
1,389.11
1,416.91
1,482.69
1,534.27
1,575.43
1,629.04
1,647.90
1,681.29
4,930.86
639.04
740.13
727.29
743.88
763.45
801.53
786.87
798.73
817.83
819.47
769.28
481.82
548.06
640.95
791.13
869.74
954.75
1,017.66
1,051.02
1,195.15
1,254.91
1,333.43
1,368.35
1,421.61
1,449.42
1,515.61
1,567.47
1,608.78
1,662.67
1,681.44
1,714.85
2,055.56
630.81
725.14
707.65
721.06
738.46
775.00
759.42
770.71
789.44
790.91
740.87
454.57
521.58
614.76
764.71
842.93
927.46
989.88
1,022.88
1,166.36
1,225.53
1,303.47
1,337.95
1,390.81
1,418.35
1,484.22
1,535.79
1,576.84
1,630.48
1,649.09
1,682.39
4,722.52
21
Conclusion and Recommendation

Brackish water fish farming had been a major contributor to the countrys
agricultural and economic development,and it was known that the town of Dumangas had
been a big producer of milkfish, through the help of the Local Government Units, the Bureau
of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources, and the Department of Science Technology milkfish
farming and industry in the future would have an increasing trend, with the new
developments and innovations in the field of fisheries partnered with the programs and
projects of the LGUs the forecasts for a high production in the near future will be reached.
This programs and projects should not just be doable as it would yield high profit
for us, but also courses of actions that would answer environmental problems and
incorporate technology into it.
Appendices
Appendix 1. Raw data of illera milkfish fish farm production.

Year
Quarter
Production in Kgs
2006
1
2
1
2
750
685
22
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
715
775
795
695
705
790
815
685
525
635
825
735
895
965
995
865
915
995
1125
905
965
1185
1245
955
1005
1210
1285
1065
26705
TOTAL
Appendix 2. Nave Forecasting Model

Table 3. Nave forecasting model
Quarter
Data
Forecast
Error
Aboslute
Error
Absolute Percentage
Error
Squared
Error
Xt
Ft
et=Xt- Ft
|et|
|et/Xt|x 100
e2
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
1
2
3
4
750
685
715
775
750
685
715
-65
30
60
2006-1
2006-2
2006-3
2006-4
23
2007-1
2007-2
2007-3
2007-4
2008-1
2008-2
2008-3
2008-4
2009-1
2009-2
2009-3
2009-4
2010-1
2010-2
2010-3
2010-4
2011-1
2011-2
2011-3
2011-4
2012-1
2012-2
2012-3
2012-4
2013-1
2013-2
2013-3
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
11.00
12.00
13.00
14.00
15.00
16.00
17.00
18.00
19.00
20.00
21.00
22.00
23.00
24.00
25.00
26.00
27.00
28.00
29.00
30.00
31.00
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
795
695
705
790
815
685
525
635
825
735
895
965
995
865
915
995
1125
905
965
1185
1245
955
1005
1210
1285
1065
775
795
695
705
790
815
685
525
635
825
735
895
965
995
865
915
995
1125
905
965
1185
1245
955
1005
1210
1285
1065
20
-100
10
85
25
-130
-160
110
190
-90
160
70
30
-130
50
80
130
-220
60
220
60
-290
50
205
75
-220
70
30
130
50
80
130
220
60
220
60
290
50
205
75
220
e2=
MSE=
e2 /
335,150.00
15= 335,150.00/15= 22,343.33
Appendix 3. Moving average

Table 4. Moving Average, N=3
Quarter
2006-1
Data
Forecast
Error
Forecast for t +1 if N=3
Squared
Error
Xt
Ft
et=Xt-Ft
Ft+1=(Xt+Xt-1+Xt-2)/3
e2
2006-2
1
2
750.00
685.00
2006-3
715.00
F4
716.67
24
2006-4
775.00
716.67
58.33
F5
725.00
2007-1
795.00
725.00
70.00
F6
761.67
2007-2
695.00
761.67
(66.67)
F7
755.00
2007-3
705.00
755.00
(50.00)
F8
731.67
2007-4
790.00
731.67
58.33
F9
730.00
2008-1
815.00
730.00
85.00
F10
770.00
2008-2
10
685.00
770.00
(85.00)
F11
763.33
2008-3
11
525.00
763.33
(238.33)
F12
675.00
2008-4
12
635.00
675.00
(40.00)
F13
615.00
2009-1
13
825.00
615.00
210.00
F14
661.67
2009-2
14
735.00
661.67
73.33
F15
731.67
2009-3
15
895.00
731.67
163.33
F16
818.33
2009-4
16
965.00
818.33
146.67
F17
865.00
2010-1
17
995.00
865.00
130.00
F18
951.67
2010-2
18
865.00
951.67
(86.67)
F19
941.67
2010-3
19
915.00
941.67
(26.67)
F20
925.00
2010-4
20
995.00
925.00
70.00
F21
925.00
2011-1
21
1,125.00
925.00
200.00
F22
1,011.67
2011-2
22
905.00
1,011.67
(106.67)
F23
1,008.33
2011-3
23
965.00
1,008.33
(43.33)
F24
998.33
2011-4
24
1,185.00
998.33
186.67
F25
1,018.33
2012-1
25
1,245.00
1,018.33
226.67
F26
1,131.67
2012-2
26
955.00
1,131.67
(176.67)
F27
1,128.33
2012-3
27
1,005.00
1,128.33
(123.33)
F28
1,068.33
2012-4
28
1,210.00
1,068.33
141.67
F29
1,056.67
2013-1
29
1,285.00
1,056.67
228.33
F30
1,166.67
2013-2
30
1,065.00
1,166.67
(101.67)
F31
1,186.67
21,511.11
16,900.00
7,511.11
711.11
4,900.00
40,000.00
11,377.78
1,877.78
34,844.44
51,377.78
31,211.11
15,211.11
20,069.44
52,136.11
10,336.11
25
2013-3
31
1,186.67
e2= 319,975.00
MSE= e2 / 15= 319,975.00/15= 21,331.67

Table 5. Moving average, N=4
Quarter
2006-1
Data
Forecast
Error
Squared
Error
Xt
Ft
et=Xt-Ft
Ft+1=(Xt+Xt-1+Xt-2)/3
e2
2006-2
1.00
2.00
750.00
685.00
2006-3
3.00
715.00
2006-4
4.00
775.00
2007-1
5.00
795.00
731.25
2007-2
6.00
695.00
2007-3
7.00
2007-4
F5
731.25
63.75
F6
742.50
742.50
(47.50)
F7
745.00
705.00
745.00
(40.00)
F8
742.50
8.00
790.00
742.50
47.50
F9
746.25
2008-1
9.00
815.00
746.25
68.75
F10
751.25
2008-2
10.00
685.00
751.25
(66.25)
F11
748.75
2008-3
11.00
525.00
748.75
(223.75)
F12
703.75
2008-4
12.00
635.00
703.75
(68.75)
F13
665.00
2009-1
13.00
825.00
665.00
160.00
F14
667.50
2009-2
14.00
735.00
667.50
67.50
F15
680.00
2009-3
15.00
895.00
680.00
215.00
F16
772.50
2009-4
16.00
965.00
772.50
192.50
F17
855.00
37,056.25
2010-1
17.00
995.00
855.00
140.00
F18
897.50
19,600.00
2010-2
18.00
865.00
897.50
(32.50)
F19
930.00
1,056.25
2010-3
19.00
915.00
930.00
(15.00)
F20
935.00
225.00
2010-4
20.00
995.00
935.00
60.00
F21
942.50
3,600.00
2011-1
21.00 1,125.00
942.50
182.50
F22
975.00
33,306.25
2011-2
22.00
905.00
975.00
(70.00)
F23
985.00
4,900.00
2011-3
23.00
965.00
985.00
(20.00)
F24
997.50
400.00
2011-4
24.00 1,185.00
997.50
187.50
F25
1,045.00
35,156.25
2012-1
25.00 1,245.00
1,045.00
200.00
F26
1,075.00
40,000.00
2012-2
26.00
1,075.00
(120.00)
F27
1,087.50
14,400.00
955.00
26
2012-3
27.00 1,005.00
1,087.50
(82.50)
F28
1,097.50
6,806.25
2012-4
28.00 1,210.00
1,097.50
112.50
F29
1,103.75
12,656.25
2013-1
29.00 1,285.00
1,103.75
181.25
F30
1,113.75
32,851.56
2013-2
30.00 1,065.00
1,113.75
(48.75)
F31
1,141.25
2,376.56
2013-3
31.00
1,141.25
e2= 244,390.63
MSE= e2 / 15= 244,390.63/15= 16,292.71

Table 6.Moving average, N=5.
Quarter
Data
Forecast
Error
Squared
Error
Xt
Ft
et=Xt-Ft
Ft+1=(Xt+Xt-1+Xt-2)/3
e2
2006-2
1.00
2.00
750.00
685.00
2006-3
3.00
715.00
2006-4
4.00
775.00
2007-1
5.00
795.00
2007-2
6.00
695.00
930.00
2007-3
7.00
705.00
2007-4
8.00
2008-1
2006-1
F6
930.00
(235.00)
F7
916.25
916.25
(211.25)
F8
921.25
790.00
921.25
(131.25)
F9
940.00
9.00
815.00
940.00
(125.00)
F10
950.00
2008-2
10.00
685.00
950.00
(265.00)
F11
922.50
2008-3
11.00
525.00
922.50
(397.50)
F12
880.00
2008-4
12.00
635.00
880.00
(245.00)
F13
862.50
2009-1
13.00
825.00
862.50
(37.50)
F14
871.25
2009-2
14.00
735.00
871.25
(136.25)
F15
851.25
2009-3
15.00
895.00
851.25
43.75
F16
903.75
2009-4
16.00
965.00
903.75
61.25
F17
1,013.75
3,751.56
2010-1
17.00
995.00
1,013.75
(18.75)
F18
1,103.75
351.56
2010-2
18.00
865.00
1,103.75
(238.75)
F19
1,113.75
57,001.56
2010-3
19.00
915.00
1,113.75
(198.75)
F20
1,158.75
39,501.56
2010-4
20.00
995.00
1,158.75
(163.75)
F21
1,183.75
26,814.06
2011-1
21.00 1,125.00
1,183.75
(58.75)
F22
1,223.75
3,451.56
2011-2
22.00
905.00
1,223.75
(318.75)
F23
1,201.25
101,601.56
2011-3
23.00
965.00
1,201.25
(236.25)
F24
1,226.25
55,814.06
27
2011-4
24.00 1,185.00
1,226.25
(41.25)
F25
1,293.75
1,701.56
2012-1
25.00 1,245.00
1,293.75
(48.75)
F26
1,356.25
2,376.56
2012-2
26.00
1,356.25
(401.25)
F27
1,313.75
161,001.56
2012-3
27.00 1,005.00
1,313.75
(308.75)
F28
1,338.75
95,326.56
2012-4
28.00 1,210.00
1,338.75
(128.75)
F29
1,400.00
16,576.56
2013-1
29.00 1,285.00
1,400.00
(115.00)
F30
1,425.00
13,225.00
2013-2
30.00 1,065.00
1,425.00
(360.00)
F31
1,380.00
129,600.00
2013-3
31.00
1,380.00
955.00
e2= 708,095.31
MSE= e2 / 15= 708,095.31/15= 47,206.35
Appendix 4. Simple Exponential Smoothing

Table 7. Identification of , =0.1
Quarter
Data
Forecast
error
Forecast for t +1
squared
error
Xt
Ft
et=Xt-Ft
Ft+1= Ft + et
e2
2006-1
720.00
735.00
15.00
F2
736.50
735.00
15.00
225.00
2006-2
695.00
736.50
(51.50)
F3
731.35
736.50
(51.50)
2,652.25
2006-3
715.00
731.35
(16.35)
F4
729.72
731.35
(16.35)
267.32
2006-4
735.00
729.72
45.29
F5
734.24
729.72
45.29
2,050.73
2007-1
775.00
734.24
60.76
F6
740.32
734.24
60.76
3,691.35
2007-2
755.00
740.32
(45.32)
F7
735.79
740.32
(45.32)
2,053.83
2007-3
770.00
735.79
(30.79)
F8
732.71
735.79
(30.79)
947.85
2007-4
790.00
732.71
57.29
F9
738.44
732.71
57.29
3,282.31
2008-1
790.00
738.44
76.56
F10
746.09
738.44
76.56
5,861.79
2008-2
735.00
746.09
(61.09)
F11
739.98
746.09
(61.09)
3,732.46
2008-3
425.00
739.98
(214.98)
F12
718.49
739.98
(214.98)
46,218.34
2008-4
530.00
718.49
(83.49)
F13
710.14
718.49
(83.49)
6,969.92
2009-1
625.00
710.14
114.86
F14
721.62
710.14
114.86
13,193.41
2009-2
780.00
721.62
13.38
F15
722.96
721.62
13.38
178.93
2009-3
850.00
722.96
172.04
F16
740.17
722.96
172.04
29,597.30
e2=
120,922.80
MSE=.01 for warm up sample= e2 / 15= 120,922.80 /15= 8,061.52

28
If = 0.2
Quarter
Data
Forecast
error
Forecast for t +1
squared
error
Xt
Ft
et=Xt-Ft
Ft+1= Ft + et
e2
2006-1
720.00
735.00
15.00
F2
738.00
735.00
15.00
225.00
2006-2
695.00
738.00
(53.00)
F3
727.40
738.00
(53.00)
2,809.00
2006-3
715.00
727.40
(12.40)
F4
724.92
727.40
(12.40)
153.76
2006-4
735.00
724.92
50.08
F5
734.94
724.92
50.08
2,508.01
2007-1
775.00
734.94
60.06
F6
746.95
734.94
60.06
3,607.68
2007-2
755.00
746.95
(51.95)
F7
736.56
746.95
(51.95)
2,698.68
2007-3
770.00
736.56
(31.56)
F8
730.25
736.56
(31.56)
995.97
2007-4
790.00
730.25
59.75
F9
742.20
730.25
59.75
3,570.39
2008-1
790.00
742.20
72.80
F10
756.76
742.20
72.80
5,300.16
2008-2
735.00
756.76
(71.76)
F11
742.41
756.76
(71.76)
5,149.24
2008-3
425.00
742.41
(217.41)
F12
698.93
742.41
(217.41)
47,265.62
2008-4
530.00
698.93
(63.93)
F13
686.14
698.93
(63.93)
4,086.44
2009-1
625.00
686.14
138.86
F14
713.91
686.14
138.86
19,282.04
2009-2
780.00
713.91
21.09
F15
718.13
713.91
21.09
444.70
2009-3
850.00
718.13
176.87
F16
753.50
718.13
176.87
31,283.09
e2=
129,379.79
MSE=0.2 for warm up sample= e2 / 15= 129,379.79 /15= 8,625.32
If = 0.3
Quarter
Data
Forecast
error
Forecast for t +1
squared
error
Xt
Ft
et=Xt-Ft
Ft+1= Ft + et
e2
2006-1
720.00
735.00
15.00
F2
739.50
735.00
15.00
225.00
2006-2
695.00
739.50
(54.50)
F3
723.15
739.50
(54.50)
2,970.25
2006-3
715.00
723.15
(8.15)
F4
720.71
723.15
(8.15)
66.42
2006-4
735.00
720.71
54.30
F5
736.99
720.71
54.30
2,947.95
2007-1
775.00
736.99
58.01
F6
754.40
736.99
58.01
3,364.75
2007-2
755.00
754.40
(59.40)
F7
736.58
754.40
(59.40)
3,527.82
29
2007-3
770.00
736.58
(31.58)
F8
727.10
736.58
(31.58)
997.10
2007-4
790.00
727.10
62.90
F9
745.97
727.10
62.90
3,955.94
2008-1
790.00
745.97
69.03
F10
766.68
745.97
69.03
4,764.78
2008-2
735.00
766.68
(81.68)
F11
742.18
766.68
(81.68)
6,671.76
2008-3
425.00
742.18
(217.18)
F12
677.02
742.18
(217.18)
47,165.67
2008-4
530.00
677.02
(42.02)
F13
664.42
677.02
(42.02)
1,765.98
2009-1
625.00
664.42
160.58
F14
712.59
664.42
160.58
25,787.05
2009-2
780.00
712.59
22.41
F15
719.31
712.59
22.41
502.14
2009-3
850.00
719.31
175.69
F16
772.02
719.31
175.69
30,865.54
e2=
MSE=0.3 for warm up sample= e2 / 15=
135,578.14
135,578.14 /15= 9,038.54
If = 0.4
Quarter
Data
Forecast
error
Forecast for t +1
squared
error
Xt
Ft
et=Xt-Ft
Ft+1= Ft + et
e2
2006-1
720.00
735.00
15.00
F2
741.00
735.00
15.00
225.00
2006-2
695.00
741.00
(56.00)
F3
718.60
741.00
(56.00)
3,136.00
2006-3
715.00
718.60
(3.60)
F4
717.16
718.60
(3.60)
12.96
2006-4
735.00
717.16
57.84
F5
740.30
717.16
57.84
3,345.47
2007-1
775.00
740.30
54.70
F6
762.18
740.30
54.70
2,992.53
2007-2
755.00
762.18
(67.18)
F7
735.31
762.18
(67.18)
4,512.83
2007-3
770.00
735.31
(30.31)
F8
723.18
735.31
(30.31)
918.49
2007-4
790.00
723.18
66.82
F9
749.91
723.18
66.82
4,464.39
2008-1
790.00
749.91
65.09
F10
775.95
749.91
65.09
4,236.66
2008-2
735.00
775.95
(90.95)
F11
739.57
775.95
(90.95)
8,271.21
2008-3
425.00
739.57
(214.57)
F12
653.74
739.57
(214.57)
46,039.31
2008-4
530.00
653.74
(18.74)
F13
646.24
653.74
(18.74)
351.21
2009-1
625.00
646.24
178.76
F14
717.75
646.24
178.76
31,953.57
2009-2
780.00
717.75
17.25
F15
724.65
717.75
17.25
297.68
2009-3
850.00
724.65
170.35
F16
792.79
724.65
170.35
29,019.81
e2=
139,777.12
30
If = 0.5
Quarter
Data
Forecast
error
Forecast for t +1
squared
error
Xt
Ft
et=Xt-Ft
Ft+1= Ft + et
e2
2006-1
720.00
735.00
15.00
F2
742.50
735.00
15.00
225.00
2006-2
695.00
742.50
(57.50)
F3
713.75
742.50
(57.50)
3,306.25
2006-3
715.00
713.75
1.25
F4
714.38
713.75
1.25
1.56
2006-4
735.00
714.38
60.63
F5
744.69
714.38
60.63
3,675.39
2007-1
775.00
744.69
50.31
F6
769.84
744.69
50.31
2,531.35
2007-2
755.00
769.84
(74.84)
F7
732.42
769.84
(74.84)
5,601.59
2007-3
770.00
732.42
(27.42)
F8
718.71
732.42
(27.42)
751.96
2007-4
790.00
718.71
71.29
F9
754.36
718.71
71.29
5,082.13
2008-1
790.00
754.36
60.64
F10
784.68
754.36
60.64
3,677.76
2008-2
735.00
784.68
(99.68)
F11
734.84
784.68
(99.68)
9,935.65
2008-3
425.00
734.84
(209.84)
F12
629.92
734.84
(209.84)
44,032.35
2008-4
530.00
629.92
5.08
F13
632.46
629.92
5.08
25.81
2009-1
625.00
632.46
192.54
F14
728.73
632.46
192.54
37,071.76
2009-2
780.00
728.73
6.27
F15
731.86
728.73
6.27
39.31
2009-3
850.00
731.86
163.14
F16
813.43
731.86
163.14
26,613.05
e2=
142,570.93
If = 0.6
Quarter
Data
Forecast
error
Forecast for t +1
squared
error
Xt
Ft
et=Xt-Ft
Ft+1= Ft + et
e2
2006-1
720.00
735.00
15.00
F2
744.00
735.00
15.00
225.00
2006-2
695.00
744.00
(59.00)
F3
708.60
744.00
(59.00)
3,481.00
2006-3
715.00
708.60
6.40
F4
712.44
708.60
6.40
40.96
2006-4
735.00
712.44
62.56
F5
749.98
712.44
62.56
3,913.75
2007-1
775.00
749.98
45.02
F6
776.99
749.98
45.02
2,027.16
31
2007-2
755.00
776.99
(81.99)
F7
727.80
776.99
(81.99)
6,722.43
2007-3
770.00
727.80
(22.80)
F8
714.12
727.80
(22.80)
519.66
2007-4
790.00
714.12
75.88
F9
759.65
714.12
75.88
5,758.01
2008-1
790.00
759.65
55.35
F10
792.86
759.65
55.35
3,063.91
2008-2
735.00
792.86
(107.86)
F11
728.14
792.86
(107.86)
11,633.55
2008-3
425.00
728.14
(203.14)
F12
606.26
728.14
(203.14)
41,267.31
2008-4
530.00
606.26
28.74
F13
623.50
606.26
28.74
826.14
2009-1
625.00
623.50
201.50
F14
744.40
623.50
201.50
40,601.05
2009-2
780.00
744.40
(9.40)
F15
738.76
744.40
(9.40)
88.38
2009-3
850.00
738.76
156.24
F16
832.50
738.76
156.24
24,410.79
e2=
144,579.11
If = 0.7
Quarter
Data
Forecast
error
Forecast for t +1
squared error
Xt
Ft
et=Xt-Ft
Ft+1= Ft + et
e2
2006-1
720.00
735.00
15.00
F2
745.50
735.00
15.00
225.00
2006-2
695.00
745.50
(60.50)
F3
703.15
745.50
(60.50)
3,660.25
2006-3
715.00
703.15
11.85
F4
711.45
703.15
11.85
140.42
2006-4
735.00
711.45
63.56
F5
755.93
711.45
63.56
4,039.24
2007-1
775.00
755.93
39.07
F6
783.28
755.93
39.07
1,526.19
2007-2
755.00
783.28
(88.28)
F7
721.48
783.28
(88.28)
7,793.37
2007-3
770.00
721.48
(16.48)
F8
709.95
721.48
(16.48)
271.72
2007-4
790.00
709.95
80.05
F9
765.98
709.95
80.05
6,408.77
2008-1
790.00
765.98
49.02
F10
800.30
765.98
49.02
2,402.61
2008-2
735.00
800.30
(115.30)
F11
719.59
800.30
(115.30)
13,292.95
2008-3
425.00
719.59
(194.59)
F12
583.38
719.59
(194.59)
37,864.69
2008-4
530.00
583.38
51.62
F13
619.51
583.38
51.62
2,664.98
32
2009-1
625.00
619.51
205.49
F14
763.35
619.51
205.49
42,224.92
2009-2
780.00
763.35
(28.35)
F15
743.51
763.35
(28.35)
803.94
2009-3
850.00
743.51
151.49
F16
849.55
743.51
151.49
22,950.38
e2=
146,269.44
MSE=0.7 for warm up sample= e2 / 15= 146,269.44/15= 9,751.30
If = 0.8
Quarter
Data
Forecast
error
Forecast for t +1
squared
error
Xt
Ft
et=Xt-Ft
Ft+1= Ft + et
e2
2006-1
720.00
735.00
15.00
F2
747.00
735.00
15.00
225.00
2006-2
695.00
747.00
(62.00)
F3
697.40
747.00
(62.00)
3,844.00
2006-3
715.00
697.40
17.60
F4
711.48
697.40
17.60
309.76
2006-4
735.00
711.48
63.52
F5
762.30
711.48
63.52
4,034.79
2007-1
775.00
762.30
32.70
F6
788.46
762.30
32.70
1,069.55
2007-2
755.00
788.46
(93.46)
F7
713.69
788.46
(93.46)
8,734.62
2007-3
770.00
713.69
(8.69)
F8
706.74
713.69
(8.69)
75.55
2007-4
790.00
706.74
83.26
F9
773.35
706.74
83.26
6,932.50
2008-1
790.00
773.35
41.65
F10
806.67
773.35
41.65
1,734.92
2008-2
735.00
806.67
(121.67)
F11
709.33
806.67
(121.67)
14,803.48
2008-3
425.00
709.33
(184.33)
F12
561.87
709.33
(184.33)
33,978.99
2008-4
530.00
561.87
73.13
F13
620.37
561.87
73.13
5,348.47
2009-1
625.00
620.37
204.63
F14
784.07
620.37
204.63
41,872.06
2009-2
780.00
784.07
(49.07)
F15
744.81
784.07
(49.07)
2,408.32
2009-3
850.00
744.81
150.19
F16
864.96
744.81
150.19
22,555.55
e2=
147,927.56

If = 0.9
Quarter
Data
Forecast
error
Forecast for t +1
squared
error
Xt
Ft
et=Xt-Ft
Ft+1= Ft + et
e2
2006-1
750.00
735.00
15.00
F2
748.50
750.00
735.00
225.00
33
2006-2
685.00
748.50
(63.50)
F3
691.35
685.00
748.50
4,032.25
2006-3
715.00
691.35
23.65
F4
712.64
715.00
691.35
559.32
2006-4
775.00
712.64
62.37
F5
768.76
775.00
712.64
3,889.39
2007-1
795.00
768.76
26.24
F6
792.38
795.00
768.76
688.35
2007-2
695.00
792.38
(97.38)
F7
704.74
695.00
792.38
9,482.15
2007-3
705.00
704.74
0.26
F8
704.97
705.00
704.74
0.07
2007-4
790.00
704.97
85.03
F9
781.50
790.00
704.97
7,229.46
2008-1
815.00
781.50
33.50
F10
811.65
815.00
781.50
1,122.43
2008-2
685.00
811.65
(126.65)
F11
697.66
685.00
811.65
16,040.16
2008-3
525.00
697.66
(172.66)
F12
542.27
525.00
697.66
29,813.19
2008-4
635.00
542.27
92.73
F13
625.73
635.00
542.27
8,599.50
2009-1
825.00
625.73
199.27
F14
805.07
825.00
625.73
39,709.87
2009-2
735.00
805.07
(70.07)
F15
742.01
735.00
805.07
4,910.18
2009-3
895.00
742.01
152.99
F16
879.70
895.00
742.01
23,406.78
e2=
149,708.10
MSE=.09 for warm up sample= e2 / 15= 149,708.10 /15= 9,980.54
Since MSE=.09 for warm up sample gives the minimum value then 0.9 is the most fitting , to
be used for the simple exponential smoothing model.
Table 8. Simple exponential smoothing, =0.9

Quarte
r
Data
Forecast
error
Forecast for t +1
squared
error
Xt
Ft
et=Xt-Ft
Ft+1= Ft + et
e2
2006-1
1.00
750.00
735.00
15.00
F2
736.50
1.00
750.00
2006-2
2.00
685.00
736.50
(51.50)
F3
731.35
2.00
685.00
2006-3
3.00
715.00
731.35
(16.35)
F4
729.72
3.00
715.00
2006-4
4.00
775.00
729.72
45.29
F5
734.24
4.00
775.00
2007-1
5.00
795.00
734.24
60.76
F6
740.32
5.00
795.00
2007-2
6.00
695.00
740.32
(45.32)
F7
735.79
6.00
695.00
2007-3
7.00
705.00
735.79
(30.79)
F8
732.71
7.00
705.00
2007-4
8.00
790.00
732.71
57.29
F9
738.44
8.00
790.00
2008-1
9.00
815.00
738.44
76.56
F10
746.09
9.00
815.00
34
2008-2
10.00
685.00
746.09
(61.09)
F11
739.98
10.00
685.00
2008-3
11.00
525.00
739.98
(214.98)
F12
718.49
11.00
525.00
2008-4
12.00
635.00
718.49
(83.49)
F13
710.14
12.00
635.00
2009-1
13.00
825.00
710.14
114.86
F14
721.62
13.00
825.00
2009-2
14.00
735.00
721.62
13.38
F15
722.96
14.00
735.00
2009-3
2009-4
15.00
16.00
895.00
965.00
722.96
740.17
172.04
224.83
F16
F17
740.17
762.65
15.00
16.00
895.00
965.00
50,550.69
2010-1
17.00
995.00
762.65
232.35
F18
785.88
17.00
995.00
53,987.14
2010-2
18.00
865.00
785.88
79.12
F19
793.80
18.00
865.00
6,259.37
2010-3
19.00
915.00
793.80
121.20
F20
805.92
19.00
915.00
14,690.55
2010-4
20.00
995.00
805.92
189.08
F21
824.82
20.00
995.00
35,752.80
2011-1
21.00
1,125.00
824.82
300.18
F22
854.84
21.00
1,125.00
90,105.45
2011-2
22.00
905.00
854.84
50.16
F23
859.86
22.00
905.00
2,515.84
2011-3
23.00
965.00
859.86
105.14
F24
870.37
23.00
965.00
11,054.91
2011-4
24.00
1,185.00
870.37
314.63
F25
901.83
24.00
1,185.00
98,990.83
2012-1
25.00
1,245.00
901.83
343.17
F26
936.15
25.00
1,245.00
117,762.41
2012-2
26.00
955.00
936.15
18.85
F27
938.04
26.00
955.00
355.28
2012-3
27.00
1,005.00
938.04
66.96
F28
944.73
27.00
1,005.00
4,484.16
2012-4
28.00
1,210.00
944.73
265.27
F29
971.26
28.00
1,210.00
70,366.84
2013-1
29.00
1,285.00
971.26
313.74
F30
1,002.63
29.00
1,285.00
98,433.25
2013-2
30.00
1,065.00
1,002.63
62.37
F31
1,008.87
30.00
1,065.00
3,889.60
2013-3
31.00
1,008.87
31.00
e2=
659,199.11
MSE= e2/15= 659,199.11 /15= 43,946.61
Appendix 5. Time Series Regression
Table 9.Linear series eegression, a=703.6607 b=2.89286.
Year
Squared
Error
Data
Forecast
Error
Xt
Ft= a + bt
et= Xt-Ft
tX
t2
2006-1
750.00
F1
706.55
43.45
750.00
1.00
2006-2
685.00
F2
709.45
(24.45)
1,370.00
4.00
2006-3
715.00
F3
712.34
2.66
2,145.00
9.00
e2
35
2006-4
775.00
F4
715.23
59.77
3,100.00
16.00
2007-1
795.00
F5
718.13
76.88
3,975.00
25.00
2007-2
695.00
F6
721.02
(26.02)
4,170.00
36.00
2007-3
705.00
F7
723.91
(18.91)
4,935.00
49.00
2007-4
790.00
F8
726.80
63.20
6,320.00
64.00
2008-1
815.00
F9
729.70
85.30
7,335.00
81.00
2008-2
10
685.00
F10
732.59
(47.59)
6,850.00
100.00
2008-3
11
525.00
F11
735.48
(210.48)
5,775.00
121.00
2008-4
12
635.00
F12
738.38
(103.38)
7,620.00
144.00
2009-1
13
825.00
F13
741.27
83.73
10,725.00
169.00
2009-2
14
735.00
F14
744.16
(9.16)
10,290.00
196.00
2009-3
15
895.00
F15
747.05
147.95
13,425.00
225.00
2009-4
16
965.00
F16
749.95
215.05
88,785.00 1,240.00
2010-1
17
995.00
F17
752.84
242.16
46,248.03
2010-2
18
865.00
F18
755.73
109.27
58,641.79
2010-3
19
915.00
F19
758.63
156.37
11,939.46
2010-4
20
995.00
F20
761.52
233.48
24,453.13
2011-1
21
1,125.00
F21
764.41
360.59
54,513.89
2011-2
22
905.00
F22
767.30
137.70
130,024.60
2011-3
23
965.00
F23
770.20
194.80
18,960.29
2011-4
24
1,185.00
F24
773.09
411.91
37,948.41
2012-1
25
1,245.00
F25
775.98
469.02
169,670.39
2012-2
26
955.00
F26
778.88
176.12
219,977.70
2012-3
27
1,005.00
F27
781.77
223.23
31,019.99
2012-4
28
1,210.00
F28
784.66
425.34
49,832.56
2013-1
29
1,285.00
F29
787.55
497.45
180,913.45
2013-2
30
1,065.00
F30
790.45
274.55
247,452.88
2013-3
31
F31
793.34
120
11,025.00
75,379.62
88,785.00 1,240.00 1,356,976.20
MSE= e2/15= 1,356,976.20/15= 90,465.08

= t/n
= 120/30
=8
36
= X/n
= 11,025.00/30
=88,785.00
b=(tX-n )/ (t2-n 2)
= (88,785.00 - (30811,025.00))/ (1,240.00-(308))
= 2.89286
a= -b =88,785.00- (2.89286)(8)
=703.66071
F=a + bt= 703.66071+ (2.89286t)
Appendix 6. Linear Exponential Smoothing

Table 10.Identification of 1 and 2 of linear exponential smooting, 1=0.1 and 2=0.01
Year
Data
Forec
ast
Error
Level at the
End of t
Trend at
the end of
t
Forecast for
t+1
Squared
Error
Xt
Ft
et = XtFt
St = Ft + 1et
Tt = Tt-1 +
2et
Ft+1 = St + Tt
e2
S0
703.66
T0
2.09
F1
705.75
1,958.06
2006-1
750.00
705.75
44.25
S1
710.17
T1
2.53
F2
712.71
767.67
2006-2
685.00
712.71
(27.71)
S2
709.94
T2
2.25
F3
712.19
7.89
2006-3
715.00
712.19
2.81
S3
712.47
T3
2.28
F4
714.75
3,629.52
2006-4
775.00
714.75
60.25
S4
720.78
T4
2.89
F5
723.66
5,088.77
2007-1
795.00
723.66
71.34
S5
730.80
T5
3.60
F6
734.40
1,552.09
2007-2
695.00
734.40
(39.40)
S6
730.46
T6
3.20
F7
733.66
821.48
2007-3
705.00
733.66
(28.66)
S7
730.80
T7
2.92
F8
733.71
3,168.18
2007-4
790.00
733.71
56.29
S8
739.34
T8
3.48
F9
742.82
5,209.52
2008-1
815.00
742.82
72.18
S9
750.04
T9
4.20
F10
754.24
4,794.64
2008-2
10
685.00
754.24
(69.24)
S10
747.32
T10
3.51
F11
750.83
50,998.86
2008-3
11
525.00
750.83
(225.83
)
S11
728.25
T11
1.25
F12
729.50
8,929.93
2008-4
12
635.00
729.50
(94.50)
S12
720.05
T12
0.31
F13
720.36
10,950.49
2009-1
13
825.00
720.36
104.64
S13
730.82
T13
1.35
F14
732.17
7.99
37
2009-2
14
735.00
732.17
2.83
S14
732.46
T14
1.38
F15
733.84
25,973.30
2009-3
15
895.00
733.84
161.16
S15
749.95
T15
2.99
F16
752.95
1,958.06
2009-4
16
767.67
752.95
2
e =
123,858.39
MSE1=.1,2=0.01 for warm up sample= e2 / 15= 123,858.39/15= 8,257.23

Table 11. Identification of 1 and 2 of linear exponential smooting, 1=0.1 and 2=0.02
Year
Data
Forec
ast
Error
Level at the
End of t
Trend at the
end of t
Forecast for
t+1
Squared
Error
Xt
Ft
et = XtFt
St = Ft + 1et
Tt = Tt-1 +
2et
Ft+1 = St + Tt
e2
S0
703.66
T0
2.09
F1
705.75
2006-1
750.00
705.75
44.25
S1
710.17
T1
2.97
F2
713.15
1,958.06
2006-2
685.00
713.15
(28.15)
S2
710.33
T2
2.41
F3
712.75
792.38
2006-3
715.00
712.75
2.25
S3
712.97
T3
2.46
F4
715.43
5.08
2006-4
775.00
715.43
59.57
S4
721.38
T4
3.65
F5
725.03
3,548.89
2007-1
795.00
725.03
69.97
S5
732.03
T5
5.05
F6
737.08
4,895.44
2007-2
695.00
737.08
(42.08)
S6
732.87
T6
4.21
F7
737.07
1,770.43
2007-3
705.00
737.07
(32.07)
S7
733.87
T7
3.56
F8
737.43
1,028.77
2007-4
790.00
737.43
52.57
S8
742.69
T8
4.62
F9
747.30
2,763.48
2008-1
815.00
747.30
67.70
S9
754.07
T9
5.97
F10
760.04
4,582.80
2008-2
10
685.00
760.04
(75.04)
S10
752.54
T10
4.47
F11
757.01
5,631.41
2008-3
11
525.00
757.01
(232.01)
S11
733.81
T11
(0.17)
F12
733.63
53,827.29
2008-4
12
635.00
733.63
(98.63)
S12
723.77
T12
(2.14)
F13
721.63
9,728.83
2009-1
13
825.00
721.63
103.37
S13
731.96
T13
(0.08)
F14
731.89
10,685.95
2009-2
14
735.00
731.89
3.11
S14
732.20
T14
(0.01)
F15
732.18
9.69
2009-3
15
895.00
732.18
162.82
S15
748.47
T15
3.24
F16
751.71
26,508.93
2009-4
16
751.71
2
e =
127,737.43
MSE1=.1,2=0.02 for warm up sample= e2 / 15= 127,737.43 /15= 8,515.83

Year
Data
Forec
ast
Error
Level at the
End of t
Trend at the
end of t
Forecast for
t+1
Squared
Error
38
Xt
Ft
et = XtFt
St = Ft + 1et
Tt = Tt-1 +
2et
Ft+1 = St + Tt
S0
703.66
T0
2.09
F1
705.75
e2
2006-1
750.00
705.75
44.25
S1
710.17
T1
3.42
F2
713.59
1,958.06
2006-2
685.00
713.59
(28.59)
S2
710.73
T2
2.56
F3
713.29
817.49
2006-3
715.00
713.29
1.71
S3
713.46
T3
2.61
F4
716.07
2.92
2006-4
775.00
716.07
58.93
S4
721.97
T4
4.38
F5
726.34
3,472.42
2007-1
795.00
726.34
68.66
S5
733.21
T5
6.44
F6
739.65
4,713.70
2007-2
695.00
739.65
(44.65)
S6
735.18
T6
5.10
F7
740.28
1,993.36
2007-3
705.00
740.28
(35.28)
S7
736.75
T7
4.04
F8
740.79
1,244.73
2007-4
790.00
740.79
49.21
S8
745.71
T8
5.52
F9
751.23
2,421.37
2008-1
815.00
751.23
63.77
S9
757.61
T9
7.43
F10
765.04
4,066.67
2008-2
10
685.00
765.04
(80.04)
S10
757.03
T10
5.03
F11
762.06
6,405.74
2008-3
11
525.00
762.06
(237.06)
S11
738.35
T11
(2.08)
F12
736.27
56,197.68
2008-4
12
635.00
736.27
(101.27)
S12
726.14
T12
(5.12)
F13
721.02
10,255.79
2009-1
13
825.00
721.02
103.98
S13
731.42
T13
(2.00)
F14
729.42
10,811.41
2009-2
14
735.00
729.42
5.58
S14
729.98
T14
(1.83)
F15
728.14
31.16
2009-3
15
895.00
728.14
166.86
S15
744.83
T15
3.17
F16
748.00
27,841.98
2009-4
16
748.00
2
e =
132,234.49
MSE1=.1,2=0.03 for warm up sample= e2 / 15= 132,234.49 /15=8,815.63
Year
Data
Forec
ast
Error
Level at the
End of t
Trend at the
end of t
Forecast for
t+1
Squared
Error
Xt
Ft
et = XtFt
St = Ft + 1et
Tt = Tt-1 +
2et
Ft+1 = St + Tt
e2
S0
703.66
T0
2.09
F1
705.75
2006-1
750.00
705.75
44.25
S1
710.17
T1
3.86
F2
714.03
1,958.06
2006-2
685.00
714.03
(29.03)
S2
711.13
T2
2.70
F3
713.83
842.99
2006-3
715.00
713.83
1.17
S3
713.95
T3
2.74
F4
716.69
1.37
2006-4
775.00
716.69
58.31
S4
722.52
T4
5.08
F5
727.60
3,399.98
2007-1
795.00
727.60
67.40
S5
734.34
T5
7.77
F6
742.11
4,542.93
2007-2
695.00
742.11
(47.11)
S6
737.40
T6
5.89
F7
743.29
2,219.54
39
2007-3
705.00
743.29
(38.29)
S7
739.46
T7
4.36
F8
743.82
1,466.09
2007-4
790.00
743.82
46.18
S8
748.44
T8
6.20
F9
754.64
2,132.80
2008-1
815.00
754.64
60.36
S9
760.68
T9
8.62
F10
769.30
3,643.29
2008-2
10
685.00
769.30
(84.30)
S10
760.87
T10
5.25
F11
766.11
7,105.67
2008-3
11
525.00
766.11
(241.11)
S11
742.00
T11
(4.40)
F12
737.60
58,135.29
2008-4
12
635.00
737.60
(102.60)
S12
727.34
T12
(8.50)
F13
718.84
10,527.55
2009-1
13
825.00
718.84
106.16
S13
729.46
T13
(4.26)
F14
725.20
11,269.56
2009-2
14
735.00
725.20
9.80
S14
726.18
T14
(3.86)
F15
722.32
96.00
2009-3
15
895.00
722.32
172.68
S15
739.59
T15
3.04
F16
742.63
29,818.85
2009-4
16
742.63
2
e =
137,159.98
MSE1=0.1,2=0.04 for warm up sample= e2 / 15= 137,159.98 /15= 9,144.00

Year
Data
Forec
ast
Error
Level at the
End of t
Trend at the
end of t
Forecast for
t+1
Squared
Error
Xt
Ft
et = XtFt
St = Ft + 1et
Tt = Tt-1 + 2et
Ft+1 = St + Tt
e2
S0
703.66
T0
2.09
F1
705.75
2006-1
750.00
705.75
44.25
S1
710.17
T1
4.30
F2
714.48
1,958.06
2006-2
685.00
714.48
(29.48)
S2
711.53
T2
2.83
F3
714.36
868.88
2006-3
715.00
714.36
0.64
S3
714.42
T3
2.86
F4
717.28
0.41
2006-4
775.00
717.28
57.72
S4
723.05
T4
5.75
F5
728.80
3,331.43
2007-1
795.00
728.80
66.20
S5
735.42
T5
9.06
F6
744.48
4,382.53
2007-2
695.00
744.48
(49.48)
S6
739.53
T6
6.58
F7
746.11
2,447.82
2007-3
705.00
746.11
(41.11)
S7
742.00
T7
4.53
F8
746.53
1,690.05
2007-4
790.00
746.53
43.47
S8
750.87
T8
6.70
F9
757.57
1,889.99
2008-1
815.00
757.57
57.43
S9
763.32
T9
9.57
F10
772.89
3,297.77
2008-2
10
685.00
772.89
(87.89)
S10
764.10
T10
5.18
F11
769.28
7,724.34
2008-3
11
525.00
769.28
(244.28)
S11
744.85
T11
(7.04)
F12
737.81
59,671.15
2008-4
12
635.00
737.81
(102.81)
S12
727.53
T12
(12.18)
F13
715.35
10,570.44
2009-1
13
825.00
715.35
109.65
S13
726.32
T13
(6.69)
F14
719.62
12,022.18
2009-2
14
735.00
719.62
15.38
S14
721.16
T14
(5.93)
F15
715.24
236.42
2009-3
15
895.00
722.32
172.68
S15
739.59
T15
3.04
F16
742.63
32,315.23
2009-4
16
742.63
40
142,406.71
e =
MSE1=0.1,2=0.05 for warm up sample= e2 / 15= 142,406.71/15= 9,493.78

Year
Data
Forec
ast
Error
Level at the
End of t
Trend at the
end of t
Forecast for
t+1
Squared
Error
Xt
Ft
et = XtFt
St = Ft + 1et
Tt = Tt-1 + 2et
Ft+1 = St + Tt
e2
S0
703.66
T0
2.09
F1
705.75
2006-1
750.00
705.75
44.25
S1
710.17
T1
4.30
F2
714.48
1,958.06
2006-2
685.00
714.48
(29.48)
S2
711.53
T2
2.83
F3
714.36
868.88
2006-3
715.00
714.36
0.64
S3
714.42
T3
2.86
F4
717.28
0.41
2006-4
775.00
717.28
57.72
S4
723.05
T4
5.75
F5
728.80
3,331.43
2007-1
795.00
728.80
66.20
S5
735.42
T5
9.06
F6
744.48
4,382.53
2007-2
695.00
744.48
(49.48)
S6
739.53
T6
6.58
F7
746.11
2,447.82
2007-3
705.00
746.11
(41.11)
S7
742.00
T7
4.53
F8
746.53
1,690.05
2007-4
790.00
746.53
43.47
S8
750.87
T8
6.70
F9
757.57
1,889.99
2008-1
815.00
757.57
57.43
S9
763.32
T9
9.57
F10
772.89
3,297.77
2008-2
10
685.00
772.89
(87.89)
S10
764.10
T10
5.18
F11
769.28
7,724.34
2008-3
11
525.00
769.28
(244.28)
S11
744.85
T11
(7.04)
F12
737.81
59,671.15
2008-4
12
635.00
737.81
(102.81)
S12
727.53
T12
(12.18)
F13
715.35
10,570.44
2009-1
13
825.00
715.35
109.65
S13
726.32
T13
(6.69)
F14
719.62
12,022.18
2009-2
14
735.00
719.62
15.38
S14
721.16
T14
(5.93)
F15
715.24
236.42
2009-3
15
895.00
722.32
172.68
S15
739.59
T15
3.04
F16
742.63
32,315.23
2009-4
16
742.63
2
e =
142,406.71

Table 16.Identification of 1 and 2 of linear exponential smooting, 1=0.1 and 2=0.06.
Year
Data
Foreca
st
Error
Level at the
End of t
Trend at the
end of t
Forecast for
t+1
Squared
Error
Xt
Ft
et = XtFt
St = Ft + 1et
Tt = Tt-1 + 2et
Ft+1 = St + Tt
e2
S0
703.66
T0
2.09
F1
705.75
S1
710.17
T1
4.74
F2
714.92
2006-1
750.00
705.75
44.25
1,958.06
41
2006-2
685.00
714.92
(29.92)
S2
711.93
T2
2.95
F3
714.88
895.16
2006-3
715.00
714.88
0.12
S3
714.89
T3
2.96
F4
717.85
0.02
2006-4
775.00
717.85
57.15
S4
723.56
T4
6.39
F5
729.95
3,266.65
2007-1
795.00
729.95
65.05
S5
736.45
T5
10.29
F6
746.74
4,231.94
2007-2
695.00
746.74
(51.74)
S6
741.57
T6
7.18
F7
748.75
2,677.13
2007-3
705.00
748.75
(43.75)
S7
744.38
T7
4.56
F8
748.94
1,914.19
2007-4
790.00
748.94
41.06
S8
753.04
T8
7.02
F9
760.07
1,686.27
2008-1
815.00
760.07
54.93
S9
765.56
T9
10.32
F10
775.88
3,017.80
2008-2
10
685.00
775.88
(90.88)
S10
766.79
T10
4.87
F11
771.66
8,258.88
2008-3
11
525.00
771.66
(246.66)
S11
746.99
T11
(9.93)
F12
737.06
60,839.79
2008-4
12
635.00
737.06
(102.06)
S12
726.85
T12
(16.06)
F13
710.80
10,415.99
2009-1
13
825.00
710.80
114.20
S13
722.22
T13
(9.20)
F14
713.01
13,042.41
2009-2
14
735.00
713.01
21.99
S14
715.21
T14
(7.88)
F15
707.33
483.43
2009-3
15
895.00
707.33
187.67
S15
726.09
T15
3.38
F16
729.47
35,221.25
2009-4
16
S0
703.66
T0
2.09
F1
705.75
2
147,908.97
e =

Year
Data
Forec
ast
Error
Level at the
End of t
Trend at the
end of t
Forecast for
t+1
Squared
Error
Xt
Ft
et = XtFt
St = Ft + 1et
Tt = Tt-1 + 2et
Ft+1 = St + Tt
e2
S0
703.66
T0
2.09
F1
705.75
2006-1
750.00
705.75
44.25
S1
710.17
T1
4.30
F2
714.48
1,958.06
2006-2
685.00
714.48
(29.48)
S2
711.53
T2
2.83
F3
714.36
868.88
2006-3
715.00
714.36
0.64
S3
714.42
T3
2.86
F4
717.28
0.41
2006-4
775.00
717.28
57.72
S4
723.05
T4
5.75
F5
728.80
3,331.43
2007-1
795.00
728.80
66.20
S5
735.42
T5
9.06
F6
744.48
4,382.53
2007-2
695.00
744.48
(49.48)
S6
739.53
T6
6.58
F7
746.11
2,447.82
2007-3
705.00
746.11
(41.11)
S7
742.00
T7
4.53
F8
746.53
1,690.05
2007-4
790.00
746.53
43.47
S8
750.87
T8
6.70
F9
757.57
1,889.99
2008-1
815.00
757.57
57.43
S9
763.32
T9
9.57
F10
772.89
3,297.77
2008-2
10
685.00
772.89
(87.89)
S10
764.10
T10
5.18
F11
769.28
7,724.34
2008-3
11
525.00
769.28
(244.28)
S11
744.85
T11
(7.04)
F12
737.81
59,671.15
42
2008-4
12
635.00
737.81
(102.81)
S12
727.53
T12
(12.18)
F13
715.35
10,570.44
2009-1
13
825.00
715.35
109.65
S13
726.32
T13
(6.69)
F14
719.62
12,022.18
2009-2
14
735.00
719.62
15.38
S14
721.16
T14
(5.93)
F15
715.24
236.42
2009-3
15
895.00
722.32
172.68
S15
739.59
T15
3.04
F16
742.63
32,315.23
2009-4
16
742.63
2
e =
142,406.71

Table 18. Identification of 1 and 2 of linear exponential smooting, 1=0.1 and 2=0.07.
Year
Data
Foreca
st
Error
Level at the
End of t
Trend at the
end of t
Forecast for
t+1
Squared
Error
Xt
Ft
et = XtFt
St = Ft + 1et
Tt = Tt-1 + 2et
Ft+1 = St + Tt
e2
S0
703.66
T0
2.09
F1
705.75
2006-1
750.00
705.75
44.25
S1
710.17
T1
5.19
F2
715.36
1,958.06
2006-2
685.00
715.36
(30.36)
S2
712.33
T2
3.06
F3
715.39
921.84
2006-3
715.00
715.39
(0.39)
S3
715.35
T3
3.03
F4
718.38
0.15
2006-4
775.00
718.38
56.62
S4
724.04
T4
7.00
F5
731.04
3,205.52
2007-1
795.00
731.04
63.96
S5
737.44
T5
11.47
F6
748.91
4,090.62
2007-2
695.00
748.91
(53.91)
S6
743.52
T6
7.70
F7
751.22
2,906.55
2007-3
705.00
751.22
(46.22)
S7
746.60
T7
4.47
F8
751.07
2,136.47
2007-4
790.00
751.07
38.93
S8
754.96
T8
7.19
F9
762.15
1,515.93
2008-1
815.00
762.15
52.85
S9
767.43
T9
10.89
F10
778.32
2,793.21
2008-2
10
685.00
778.32
(93.32)
S10
768.99
T10
4.36
F11
773.35
8,709.46
2008-3
11
525.00
773.35
(248.35)
S11
748.51
T11
(13.03)
F12
735.49
61,677.51
2008-4
12
635.00
735.49
(100.49)
S12
725.44
T12
(20.06)
F13
705.38
10,097.77
2009-1
13
825.00
705.38
119.62
S13
717.34
T13
(11.69)
F14
705.65
14,309.47
2009-2
14
735.00
705.65
29.35
S14
708.59
T14
(9.63)
F15
698.95
861.28
2009-3
15
895.00
698.95
196.05
S15
718.56
T15
4.09
F16
722.65
38,434.02
2009-4
16
722.65
2
e =
153,617.86
43
Year
Data
Foreca
st
Error
Level at the
End of t
Trend at the
end of t
Forecast for
t+1
Squared
Error
Xt
Ft
et = XtFt
St = Ft + 1et
Tt = Tt-1 + 2et
Ft+1 = St + Tt
e2
S0
703.66
T0
2.09
F1
705.75
2006-1
750.00
705.75
44.25
S1
710.17
T1
5.63
F2
715.80
1,958.06
2006-2
685.00
715.80
(30.80)
S2
712.72
T2
3.16
F3
715.89
948.90
2006-3
715.00
715.89
(0.89)
S3
715.80
T3
3.09
F4
718.89
0.79
2006-4
775.00
718.89
56.11
S4
724.50
T4
7.58
F5
732.09
3,147.91
2007-1
795.00
732.09
62.91
S5
738.38
T5
12.62
F6
750.99
3,958.08
2007-2
695.00
750.99
(55.99)
S6
745.39
T6
8.14
F7
753.53
3,135.27
2007-3
705.00
753.53
(48.53)
S7
748.68
T7
4.25
F8
752.93
2,355.16
2007-4
790.00
752.93
37.07
S8
756.64
T8
7.22
F9
763.86
1,374.14
2008-1
815.00
763.86
51.14
S9
768.97
T9
11.31
F10
780.28
2,615.65
2008-2
10
685.00
780.28
(95.28)
S10
770.75
T10
3.69
F11
774.44
9,078.56
2008-3
11
525.00
774.44
(249.44)
S11
749.50
T11
(16.27)
F12
733.23
62,220.99
2008-4
12
635.00
733.23
(98.23)
S12
723.41
T12
(24.13)
F13
699.28
9,649.12
2009-1
13
825.00
699.28
125.72
S13
711.85
T13
(14.07)
F14
697.78
15,805.19
2009-2
14
735.00
697.78
37.22
S14
701.51
T14
(11.09)
F15
690.42
1,384.96
2009-3
15
895.00
690.42
204.58
S15
710.87
T15
5.28
F16
716.15
41,854.81
2009-4
16
716.15
2
159,487.61
e =
MSE1=0.1,2=0.08 for warm up sample= e2 / 15= 159,487.61/15=10,632.51

Year
Data
Foreca
st
Error
Level at the
End of t
Trend at the
end of t
Forecast for
t+1
Squared
Error
Xt
Ft
et = XtFt
St = Ft + 1et
Tt = Tt-1 + 2et
Ft+1 = St + Tt
e2
S0
703.66
T0
2.09
F1
705.75
2006-1
750.00
705.75
44.25
S1
710.17
T1
6.07
F2
716.25
1,958.06
2006-2
685.00
716.25
(31.25)
S2
713.12
T2
3.26
F3
716.38
976.36
2006-3
715.00
716.38
(1.38)
S3
716.24
T3
3.14
F4
719.38
1.91
2006-4
775.00
719.38
55.62
S4
724.94
T4
8.14
F5
733.08
3,093.73
2007-1
795.00
733.08
61.92
S5
739.27
T5
13.71
F6
752.99
3,833.84
2007-2
695.00
752.99
(57.99)
S6
747.19
T6
8.49
F7
755.68
3,362.56
2007-3
705.00
755.68
(50.68)
S7
750.62
T7
3.93
F8
754.55
2,568.84
44
2007-4
790.00
754.55
35.45
S8
758.09
T8
7.12
F9
765.22
1,256.80
2008-1
815.00
765.22
49.78
S9
770.20
T9
11.60
F10
781.80
2,478.27
2008-2
10
685.00
781.80
(96.80)
S10
772.12
T10
2.89
F11
775.01
9,370.31
2008-3
11
525.00
775.01
(250.01)
S11
750.01
T11
(19.61)
F12
730.40
62,506.33
2008-4
12
635.00
730.40
(95.40)
S12
720.86
T12
(28.20)
F13
692.67
9,101.65
2009-1
13
825.00
692.67
132.33
S13
705.90
T13
(16.29)
F14
689.62
17,511.94
2009-2
14
735.00
689.62
45.38
S14
694.15
T14
(12.20)
F15
681.95
2,059.76
2009-3
15
895.00
681.95
213.05
S15
703.26
T15
6.97
F16
710.23
45,388.84
2009-4
16
710.23
2
e =
165,469.19
Table 21. Exponential smoothing with a linear trend, 1= .10, 2=.01

Year
Data
Forecast
Error
Level at the
End of t
Trend at the
end of t
Forecast for
t+1
Squared
Error
Xt
Ft
et = XtFt
St = Ft + 1et
Tt = Tt-1 +
2et
Ft+1 = St + Tt
e2
2006-1
750.00
705.75
2006-2
685.00
2006-3
2006-4
S0
703.66
T0
2.09
F1
705.75
44.25
S1
710.17
T1
2.53
F2
712.71
712.71
(27.71)
S2
709.94
T2
2.25
F3
712.19
715.00
712.19
2.81
S3
712.47
T3
2.28
F4
714.75
775.00
714.75
60.25
S4
720.78
T4
2.89
F5
723.66
45
2007-1
795.00
723.66
71.34
S5
730.80
T5
3.60
F6
734.40
2007-2
695.00
734.40
(39.40)
S6
730.46
T6
3.20
F7
733.66
2007-3
705.00
733.66
(28.66)
S7
730.80
T7
2.92
F8
733.71
2007-4
790.00
733.71
56.29
S8
739.34
T8
3.48
F9
742.82
2008-1
815.00
742.82
72.18
S9
750.04
T9
4.20
F10
754.24
2008-2
10
685.00
754.24
(69.24)
S10
747.32
T10
3.51
F11
750.83
2008-3
11
525.00
750.83
(225.83)
S11
728.25
T11
1.25
F12
729.50
2008-4
12
635.00
729.50
(94.50)
S12
720.05
T12
0.31
F13
720.36
2009-1
13
825.00
720.36
104.64
S13
730.82
T13
1.35
F14
732.17
2009-2
14
735.00
732.17
2.83
S14
732.46
T14
1.38
F15
733.84
2009-3
15
895.00
733.84
161.16
S15
749.95
T15
2.99
F16
752.95
2009-4
16
965.00
752.95
212.05
S16
774.15
T16
5.11
F17
779.27
44,966.39
2010-1
17
995.00
779.27
215.73
S17
800.84
T17
7.27
F18
808.11
46,541.03
2010-2
18
865.00
808.11
56.89
S18
813.80
T18
7.84
F19
821.64
3,236.38
2010-3
19
915.00
821.64
93.36
S19
830.98
T19
8.77
F20
839.75
8,716.12
2010-4
20
995.00
839.75
155.25
S20
855.27
T20
10.33
F21
865.60
24,102.72
2011-1
21
1,125.00
865.60
259.40
S21
891.54
T21
12.92
F22
904.46
67,287.99
2011-2
22
905.00
904.46
0.54
S22
904.51
T22
12.93
F23
917.44
0.29
2011-3
23
965.00
917.44
47.56
S23
922.20
T23
13.40
F24
935.60
2,261.93
2011-4
24
1,185.00
935.60
249.40
S24
960.54
T24
15.90
F25
976.43
62,201.66
2012-1
25
1,245.00
976.43
268.57
S25
1,003.29
T25
18.58
F26
2012-2
26
955.00
1,021.87
(66.87)
S26
1,015.18
T26
17.91
F27
2012-3
27
1,005.00
1,033.10
(28.10)
S27
1,030.29
T27
17.63
F28
2012-4
28
1,210.00
1,047.92
162.08
S28
1,064.13
T28
19.25
F29
2013-1
29
1,285.00
1,083.38
201.62
S29
1,103.54
T29
21.27
F30
2013-2
30
1,065.00
1,124.81
(59.81)
S30
1,118.83
T30
20.67
F31
2013-3
31
1,021.8
7
1,033.1
0
1,047.9
2
1,083.3
8
1,124.8
1
1,139.5
0
72,128.33
4,471.65
789.36
26,270.86
40,651.66
3,576.99
1,139.50
2
e =
407,203.35
MSE= e2/15= 407,203.35 /15= 27,146.89
46
Appendix 7. Non Linear Smoothing
Table 22.Identification of 1 and 2 of non linear exponential smooting, 1=.10, 2=.01, =.1
Data
Forecast
Error
Level at the End

of t
Trend at the
end of t
Forecast for
t+1
Squared
Error
Xt
Ft
et=Xt-Ft
St= Ft + 1et
Tt= Tt-1 +
2et
Ft+1 =St + Tt
Quarte
r
2006-1
750.00
705.96
2006-2
685.00
2006-3
2006-4
S0
703.66
T0
2.09
F1
705.96
44.04
S1
710.36
T1
2.74
F2
713.38
2,128.01
713.38
(28.38)
S2
710.54
T2
2.73
F3
713.54
554.59
715.00
713.54
1.46
S3
713.69
T3
3.02
F4
717.00
77.83
775.00
717.00
58.00
S4
722.80
T4
3.90
F5
727.09
4,614.86
2007-1
795.00
727.09
67.91
S5
733.88
T5
4.97
F6
739.34
6,572.48
2007-2
695.00
739.34
(44.34)
S6
734.91
T6
5.02
F7
740.43
735.72
2007-3
705.00
740.43
(35.43)
S7
736.89
T7
5.17
F8
742.57
207.17
2007-4
790.00
742.57
47.43
S8
747.32
T8
6.16
F9
754.09
5,192.95
2008-1
815.00
754.09
60.91
S9
760.18
T9
7.38
F10
768.30
8,061.43
2008-2
10
685.00
768.30
(83.30)
S10
759.97
T10
7.29
F11
767.99
2,429.49
2008-3
11
525.00
767.99
(242.99)
S11
743.69
T11
5.59
F12
749.84
41,747.19
2008-4
12
635.00
749.84
(114.84)
S12
738.35
T12
5.00
F13
743.85
5,428.87
2009-1
13
825.00
743.85
81.15
S13
751.97
T13
6.31
F14
758.91
15,321.91
2009-2
14
735.00
758.91
(23.91)
S14
756.52
T14
6.70
F15
763.89
453.23
2009-3
15
895.00
763.89
131.11
S15
777.00
T15
8.68
F16
786.55
32,086.69
733.9676
2
125,612.44
e =
MSE1=0.1,2=.01, =.1 for warm up sample=
e2 /
15= 125,612.44 /15= 8,374.16
Table 23. Identification of 1 and 2 of non linear exponential smooting, 1=.10, 2=.01, =.2
Data
Forecast
Error
Level at the End

of t
Trend at the
end of t
Forecast for
t+1
Squared
Error
Xt
Ft
et=Xt-Ft
St= Ft + 1et
Tt= Tt-1 +
2et
Ft+1 =St + Tt
Quarte
r
2006-1
750.00
704.08
2006-2
685.00
2006-3
715.00
S0
703.66
T0
2.09
F1
704.08
45.92
S1
708.67
T1
0.88
F2
708.85
2,108.78
708.85
(23.85)
S2
706.46
T2
(0.06)
F3
706.45
568.64
706.45
8.55
S3
707.30
T3
0.07
F4
707.32
73.12
47
2006-4
775.00
707.32
67.68
S4
714.09
T4
0.69
F5
714.23
4,580.77
2007-1
795.00
714.23
80.77
S5
722.30
T5
0.95
F6
722.49
6,524.60
2007-2
695.00
722.49
(27.49)
S6
719.74
T6
(0.09)
F7
719.73
755.79
2007-3
705.00
719.73
(14.73)
S7
718.25
T7
(0.16)
F8
718.22
216.84
2007-4
790.00
718.22
71.78
S8
725.40
T8
0.68
F9
725.53
5,152.37
2008-1
815.00
725.53
89.47
S9
734.48
T9
1.03
F10
734.69
8,003.99
2008-2
10
685.00
734.69
(49.69)
S10
729.72
T10
(0.29)
F11
729.66
2,468.88
2008-3
11
525.00
729.66
(204.66)
S11
709.19
T11
(2.10)
F12
708.77
41,886.09
2008-4
12
635.00
708.77
(73.77)
S12
701.40
T12
(1.16)
F13
701.16
5,442.58
2009-1
13
825.00
701.16
123.84
S13
713.55
T13
1.01
F14
713.75
15,335.17
2009-2
14
735.00
713.75
21.25
S14
715.87
T14
0.41
F15
715.96
451.58
2009-3
15
895.00
715.96
179.04
S15
733.86
T15
1.87
F16
734.24
32,056.25
734.24
2
e =
e2 /
125,625.46
15= 125,625.46/15= 8,375.03
Data
Forecast
Error
Level at the End

of t
Trend at the
end of t
Forecast for
t+1
Squared
Error
Xt
Ft
et=Xt-Ft
St= Ft + 1et
Tt= Tt-1 +
2et
Ft+1 =St + Tt
Quarte
r
2006-1
750.00
704.29
2006-2
685.00
2006-3
2006-4
S0
703.66
T0
2.09
F1
704.29
45.71
S1
708.86
T1
1.08
F2
709.18
2,089.63
709.18
(24.18)
S2
706.77
T2
0.08
F3
706.79
584.86
715.00
706.79
8.21
S3
707.61
T3
0.11
F4
707.64
67.40
775.00
707.64
67.36
S4
714.38
T4
0.71
F5
714.59
4,536.89
2007-1
795.00
714.59
80.41
S5
722.63
T5
1.02
F6
722.94
6,465.62
2007-2
695.00
722.94
(27.94)
S6
720.14
T6
0.03
F7
720.15
780.45
2007-3
705.00
720.15
(15.15)
S7
718.64
T7
(0.14)
F8
718.59
229.54
2007-4
790.00
718.59
71.41
S8
725.73
T8
0.67
F9
725.93
5,099.06
2008-1
815.00
725.93
89.07
S9
734.84
T9
1.09
F10
735.17
7,932.69
48
2008-2
10
685.00
735.17
(50.17)
S10
730.15
T10
(0.17)
F11
730.10
2,516.88
2008-3
11
525.00
730.10
(205.10)
S11
709.59
T11
(2.10)
F12
708.96
42,065.77
2008-4
12
635.00
708.96
(73.96)
S12
701.56
T12
(1.37)
F13
701.15
5,469.86
2009-1
13
825.00
701.15
123.85
S13
713.54
T13
0.83
F14
713.78
15,338.45
2009-2
14
735.00
713.78
21.22
S14
715.91
T14
0.46
F15
716.04
450.10
2009-3
15
895.00
716.04
178.96
S15
733.94
T15
1.93
F16
734.52
32,025.18
734.24
2
e =
125,652.37
MSE1=0.1,2=.01, =.3 for warm up sample= e2 / 15= 125,652.37 /15= 8,376.82

Data
Forecast
Error
Level at the End

of t
Trend at the
end of t
Forecast for
t+1
Squared
Error
Xt
Ft
et=Xt-Ft
St= Ft + 1et
Tt= Tt-1 +
2et
Ft+1 =St + Tt
Quarte
r
2006-1
750.00
704.50
2006-2
685.00
2006-3
2006-4
S0
703.66
T0
2.09
F1
704.50
45.50
S1
709.05
T1
1.29
F2
709.56
2,070.58
709.56
(24.56)
S2
707.11
T2
0.27
F3
707.22
603.34
715.00
707.22
7.78
S3
707.99
T3
0.19
F4
708.07
60.61
775.00
708.07
66.93
S4
714.76
T4
0.74
F5
715.06
4,479.90
2007-1
795.00
715.06
79.94
S5
723.05
T5
1.10
F6
723.49
6,390.61
2007-2
695.00
723.49
(28.49)
S6
720.64
T6
0.15
F7
720.70
811.77
2007-3
705.00
720.70
(15.70)
S7
719.13
T7
(0.10)
F8
719.10
246.61
2007-4
790.00
719.10
70.90
S8
726.19
T8
0.67
F9
726.45
5,027.47
2008-1
815.00
726.45
88.55
S9
735.31
T9
1.15
F10
735.77
7,840.36
2008-2
10
685.00
735.77
(50.77)
S10
730.69
T10
(0.05)
F11
730.67
2,577.62
2008-3
11
525.00
730.67
(205.67)
S11
710.11
T11
(2.08)
F12
709.28
42,302.11
2008-4
12
635.00
709.28
(74.28)
S12
701.85
T12
(1.57)
F13
701.22
5,517.10
2009-1
13
825.00
701.22
123.78
S13
713.60
T13
0.61
F14
713.84
15,321.40
2009-2
14
735.00
713.84
21.16
S14
715.96
T14
0.46
F15
716.14
447.67
2009-3
15
895.00
716.14
178.86
S15
734.03
T15
1.97
F16
734.81
31,991.04
734.81
2
e =
125,688.20
MSE1=0.1,2=.01, =.4 for warm up sample= e2 / 15= 125,688.20/15= 8,379.21

49
Data
Forecast
Error
Level at the End

of t
Trend at the
end of t
Forecast for
t+1
Squared
Error
Xt
Ft
et=Xt-Ft
St= Ft + 1et
Tt= Tt-1 +
2et
Ft+1 =St + Tt
Quarte
r
2006-1
750.00
704.71
2006-2
685.00
2006-3
2006-4
S0
703.66
T0
2.09
F1
704.71
45.29
S1
709.23
T1
1.50
F2
709.98
2,051.61
709.98
(24.98)
S2
707.49
T2
0.50
F3
707.73
624.18
715.00
707.73
7.27
S3
708.46
T3
0.32
F4
708.62
52.78
775.00
708.62
66.38
S4
715.26
T4
0.82
F5
715.67
4,406.00
2007-1
795.00
715.67
79.33
S5
723.61
T5
1.21
F6
724.21
6,292.85
2007-2
695.00
724.21
(29.21)
S6
721.29
T6
0.31
F7
721.44
853.11
2007-3
705.00
721.44
(16.44)
S7
719.80
T7
(0.01)
F8
719.79
270.36
2007-4
790.00
719.79
70.21
S8
726.81
T8
0.70
F9
727.16
4,928.90
2008-1
815.00
727.16
87.84
S9
735.95
T9
1.23
F10
736.56
7,715.29
2008-2
10
685.00
736.56
(51.56)
S10
731.40
T10
0.10
F11
731.45
2,658.49
2008-3
11
525.00
731.45
(206.45)
S11
710.81
T11
(2.02)
F12
709.80
42,623.02
2008-4
12
635.00
709.80
(74.80)
S12
702.32
T12
(1.76)
F13
701.44
5,595.09
2009-1
13
825.00
701.44
123.56
S13
713.80
T13
0.36
F14
713.98
15,266.48
2009-2
14
735.00
713.98
21.02
S14
716.08
T14
0.39
F15
716.27
441.97
2009-3
15
895.00
716.27
178.73
S15
734.15
T15
1.98
F16
735.14
31,943.04
735.14
2
e =
125,723.17

Data
Forecast
Error
Level at the End

of t
Trend at the
end of t
Forecast for
t+1
Squared
Error
Xt
Ft
et=Xt-Ft
St= Ft + 1et
Tt= Tt-1 +
2et
Ft+1 =St + Tt
Quarte
r
2006-1
750.00
704.91
2006-2
685.00
2006-3
2006-4
2007-1
S0
703.66
T0
2.09
F1
704.91
45.09
S1
709.42
T1
1.70
F2
710.45
2,032.72
710.45
(25.45)
S2
707.90
T2
0.77
F3
708.36
647.47
715.00
708.36
6.64
S3
709.03
T3
0.53
F4
709.34
44.06
775.00
709.34
65.66
S4
715.91
T4
0.97
F5
716.49
4,310.96
795.00
716.49
78.51
S5
724.34
T5
1.37
F6
725.16
6,163.56
50
2007-2
695.00
725.16
(30.16)
S6
722.15
T6
0.52
F7
722.46
909.85
2007-3
705.00
722.46
(17.46)
S7
720.71
T7
0.14
F8
720.80
304.82
2007-4
790.00
720.80
69.20
S8
727.72
T8
0.77
F9
728.18
4,789.25
2008-1
815.00
728.18
86.82
S9
736.86
T9
1.33
F10
737.66
7,537.59
2008-2
10
685.00
737.66
(52.66)
S10
732.40
T10
0.27
F11
732.56
2,773.32
2008-3
11
525.00
732.56
(207.56)
S11
711.80
T11
(1.91)
F12
710.66
43,081.12
2008-4
12
635.00
710.66
(75.66)
S12
703.09
T12
(1.90)
F13
701.95
5,723.96
2009-1
13
825.00
701.95
123.05
S13
714.25
T13
0.09
F14
714.31
15,141.55
2009-2
14
735.00
714.31
20.69
S14
716.38
T14
0.26
F15
716.53
428.20
2009-3
15
895.00
716.53
178.47
S15
734.38
T15
1.94
F16
735.54
31,850.70
735.54
2
e =
125,739.15
Table 28.. Identification of 1 and 2 of non linear exponential smooting, 1=.10, 2=.01, =.7
Data
Forecast
Error
Level at the End

of t
Trend at the
end of t
Forecast for
t+1
Squared
Error
Xt
Ft
et=Xt-Ft
St= Ft + 1et
Tt= Tt-1 +
2et
Ft+1 =St + Tt
Quarte
r
2006-1
750.00
705.12
2006-2
685.00
2006-3
2006-4
S0
703.66
T0
2.09
F1
705.12
44.88
S1
709.61
T1
1.91
F2
710.95
2,013.93
710.95
(25.95)
S2
708.35
T2
1.08
F3
709.11
673.34
715.00
709.11
5.89
S3
709.70
T3
0.81
F4
710.27
34.71
775.00
710.27
64.73
S4
716.74
T4
1.22
F5
717.59
4,190.29
2007-1
795.00
717.59
77.41
S5
725.33
T5
1.63
F6
726.47
5,991.89
2007-2
695.00
726.47
(31.47)
S6
723.32
T6
0.82
F7
723.90
990.46
2007-3
705.00
723.90
(18.90)
S7
722.01
T7
0.39
F8
722.28
357.24
2007-4
790.00
722.28
67.72
S8
729.05
T8
0.95
F9
729.72
4,585.73
2008-1
815.00
729.72
85.28
S9
738.25
T9
1.52
F10
739.31
7,273.09
2008-2
10
685.00
739.31
(54.31)
S10
733.88
T10
0.52
F11
734.24
2,949.31
2008-3
11
525.00
734.24
(209.24)
S11
713.32
T11
(1.73)
F12
712.11
43,781.29
2008-4
12
635.00
712.11
(77.11)
S12
704.39
T12
(1.98)
F13
703.01
5,945.22
2009-1
13
825.00
703.01
121.99
S13
715.21
T13
(0.17)
F14
715.09
14,882.15
51
2009-2
14
735.00
715.09
19.91
S14
717.08
T14
0.08
F15
717.14
396.42
2009-3
15
895.00
717.14
177.86
S15
734.92
T15
1.84
F16
736.21
31,634.80
736.21
2
e =
125,699.86
MSE1=0.1,2=.01, =.7 for warm up sample= e2 / 15= 125,699.8/15= 8,379.99

Table 29. Identification of 1 and 2 of non linear exponential smooting, 1=.10, 2=.01, =.8.
Data
Forecast
Error
Level at the End

of t
Trend at the
end of t
Forecast for
t+1
Squared
Error
Xt
Ft
et=Xt-Ft
St= Ft + 1et
Tt= Tt-1 +
2et
Ft+1 =St + Tt
Quarte
r
2006-1
750.00
705.33
2006-2
685.00
2006-3
2006-4
S0
703.66
T0
2.09
F1
705.33
44.67
S1
709.80
T1
2.12
F2
711.49
1,995.22
711.49
(26.49)
S2
708.84
T2
1.43
F3
709.99
701.90
715.00
709.99
5.01
S3
710.49
T3
1.19
F4
711.44
25.12
775.00
711.44
63.56
S4
717.80
T4
1.59
F5
719.07
4,039.37
2007-1
795.00
719.07
75.93
S5
726.66
T5
2.03
F6
728.29
5,765.06
2007-2
695.00
728.29
(33.29)
S6
724.96
T6
1.29
F7
726.00
1,108.24
2007-3
705.00
726.00
(21.00)
S7
723.90
T7
0.82
F8
724.55
440.80
2007-4
790.00
724.55
65.45
S8
731.10
T8
1.31
F9
732.15
4,283.06
2008-1
815.00
732.15
82.85
S9
740.44
T9
1.88
F10
741.94
6,864.07
2008-2
10
685.00
741.94
(56.94)
S10
736.24
T10
0.93
F11
736.99
3,242.03
2008-3
11
525.00
736.99
(211.99)
S11
715.79
T11
(1.37)
F12
714.70
44,940.74
2008-4
12
635.00
714.70
(79.70)
S12
706.73
T12
(1.90)
F13
705.21
6,351.29
2009-1
13
825.00
705.21
119.79
S13
717.19
T13
(0.32)
F14
716.93
14,349.77
2009-2
14
735.00
716.93
18.07
S14
718.74
T14
(0.07)
F15
718.68
326.38
2009-3
15
895.00
718.68
176.32
S15
736.31
T15
1.70
F16
737.68
31,088.19
737.68
2
e =
125,521.24
MSE1=0.1,2=.01, =.8 for warm up sample= e2 / 15= 125,521.24 /15=8,368.08

Table 30.Identification of 1 and 2 of non linear exponential smooting, 1=.10, 2=.01, =.9
Quarte
r
Data
Forecast
Error
Level at the End

of t
Trend at the
end of t
Forecast for
t+1
Squared
Error
Xt
Ft
et=Xt-Ft
St= Ft + 1et
Tt= Tt-1 +
2et
Ft+1 =St + Tt
S0
703.66
T0
2.09
F1
705.54
52
2006-1
750.00
705.54
44.46
S1
709.99
T1
2.32
F2
712.08
1,976.60
2006-2
685.00
712.08
(27.08)
S2
709.37
T2
1.82
F3
711.01
733.29
2006-3
715.00
711.01
3.99
S3
711.41
T3
1.68
F4
712.92
15.91
2006-4
775.00
712.92
62.08
S4
719.13
T4
2.13
F5
721.05
3,853.76
2007-1
795.00
721.05
73.95
S5
728.44
T5
2.66
F6
730.84
5,468.87
2007-2
695.00
730.84
(35.84)
S6
727.25
T6
2.03
F7
729.08
1,284.22
2007-3
705.00
729.08
(24.08)
S7
726.67
T7
1.59
F8
728.11
580.01
2007-4
790.00
728.11
61.89
S8
734.30
T8
2.05
F9
736.14
3,830.86
2008-1
815.00
736.14
78.86
S9
744.03
T9
2.63
F10
746.40
6,218.83
2008-2
10
685.00
746.40
(61.40)
S10
740.26
T10
1.76
F11
741.84
3,769.54
2008-3
11
525.00
741.84
(216.84)
S11
720.15
T11
(0.59)
F12
719.62
47,018.53
2008-4
12
635.00
719.62
(84.62)
S12
711.16
T12
(1.38)
F13
709.92
7,161.36
2009-1
13
825.00
709.92
115.08
S13
721.43
T13
(0.09)
F14
721.35
13,242.33
2009-2
14
735.00
721.35
13.65
S14
722.72
T14
0.06
F15
722.77
186.21
2009-3
15
895.00
722.77
172.23
S15
739.99
T15
1.77
F16
741.59
29,662.85
741.59
2
e =
e2 /
125,003.20
15= 125,003.20/15= 8,333.55
Table 31. Exponential smoothing with a non- linear trend: 1=.10, 2=.01, =1.1
Data
Forecast
Error
Level at the End

of t
Trend at the
end of t
Forecast for
t+1
Squared
Error
Xt
Ft
et=Xt-Ft
St= Ft + 1et
Tt= Tt-1 +
2et
Ft+1 =St + Tt
Quarte
r
2006-1
750.00
705.96
2006-2
685.00
2006-3
2006-4
S0
703.66
T0
2.09
F1
705.96
44.04
S1
710.36
T1
2.74
F2
713.38
713.38
(28.38)
S2
710.54
T2
2.73
F3
713.54
715.00
713.54
1.46
S3
713.69
T3
3.02
F4
717.00
775.00
717.00
58.00
S4
722.80
T4
3.90
F5
727.09
2007-1
795.00
727.09
67.91
S5
733.88
T5
4.97
F6
739.34
2007-2
695.00
739.34
(44.34)
S6
734.91
T6
5.02
F7
740.43
2007-3
705.00
740.43
(35.43)
S7
736.89
T7
5.17
F8
742.57
2007-4
790.00
742.57
47.43
S8
747.32
T8
6.16
F9
754.09
2008-1
815.00
754.09
60.91
S9
760.18
T9
7.38
F10
768.30
2008-2
10
685.00
768.30
(83.30)
S10
759.97
T10
7.29
F11
767.99
53
2008-3
11
525.00
767.99
(242.99)
S11
743.69
T11
5.59
F12
749.84
2008-4
12
635.00
749.84
(114.84)
S12
738.35
T12
5.00
F13
743.85
2009-1
13
825.00
743.85
81.15
S13
751.97
T13
6.31
F14
758.91
2009-2
14
735.00
758.91
(23.91)
S14
756.52
T14
6.70
F15
763.89
2009-3
15
895.00
763.89
131.11
S15
777.00
T15
8.68
F16
786.55
2009-4
16
965.00
786.55
178.45
S16
804.40
T16
11.34
F17
816.86
31,844.21
2010-1
17
995.00
816.86
178.14
S17
834.68
T17
14.25
F18
850.35
31,732.28
2010-2
18
865.00
850.35
14.65
S18
851.82
T18
15.82
F19
869.22
214.52
2010-3
19
915.00
869.22
45.78
S19
873.80
T19
17.86
F20
893.45
2,095.63
2010-4
20
995.00
893.45
101.55
S20
903.60
T20
20.66
F21
926.33
10,312.86
2011-1
21
1,125.00
926.33
198.67
S21
946.20
T21
24.72
F22
973.39
39,468.67
2011-2
22
905.00
973.39
(68.39)
S22
966.55
T22
26.50
F23
995.70
4,676.87
2011-3
23
965.00
995.70
(30.70)
S23
992.63
T23
28.85
F24
1,024.37
942.71
2011-4
24
1,185.00
1,024.37
160.63
S24
1,040.43
T24
33.34
F25
1,077.10
25,803.41
2012-1
25
1,245.00
1,077.10
167.90
S25
1,093.89
T25
38.35
F26
1,136.08
28,189.85
2012-2
26
955.00
1,136.08
(181.08)
S26
1,117.97
T26
40.38
F27
1,162.38
32,789.34
2012-3
27
1,005.00
1,162.38
(157.38)
S27
1,146.65
T27
42.84
F28
1,193.77
24,769.74
2012-4
28
1,210.00
1,193.77
16.23
S28
1,195.39
T28
47.29
F29
1,247.41
263.43
2013-1
29
1,285.00
1,247.41
37.59
S29
1,251.17
T29
52.39
F30
1,308.80
1,413.23
2013-2
30
1,065.00
1,308.80
(243.80)
S30
1,284.42
T30
55.19
F31
1,345.13
59,436.48
2013-3
31
1,345.13
2
e =
293,953.23
MSE= e2/15= 293,953.23/15= 19,596.88
Appendix 8. Milkfish production report by Illera fish pond as of September 15, 2013
Year- Quarter
2006-1
2006-2
2006-3
2006-4
2007-1
2007-2
2007-3
2007-4
Production in Kgs
720.00
695.00
715.00
735.00
775.00
755.00
770.00
790.00
54
2008-1
2008-2
2008-3
2008-4
2009-1
2009-2
2009-3
2009-4
2010-1
2010-2
2010-3
2010-4
2011-1
2011-2
2011-3
2011-4
2012-1
2012-2
2012-3
2012-4
2013-1
2013-2
790.00
735.00
425.00
530.00
625.00
780.00
850.00
935.00
995.00
1025.00
1180.00
1230.00
1310.00
1340.00
1395.00
1420.00
1490.00
1540.00
1580.00
1635.00
1,650.00
1,685.00
*For Academic Purposes Only
Bibliography
(2011). Retrieved 2013, from www.lums.lancs.ac.uk.
(2011). Retrieved September 15, 2013, from Forecasting Trends:
www.lums.lancs.ac.uk/files/mansci/18735.pdf
(2011). A Case Study on the Impact of Climate Change on Milkfish Pond Production in the
Municipalities of Barotak Nuevo and Dumangas, Panay Island, Philippines. Iloilo:
Seafdec.
Kee- Chai Chong, e. a. (1982). Inputs as related to output in milkfish production in the
Philippines. Iclarm Technical Report, 2-73.
55
Panida Subsorn, e. a. (2010). Forecasting Rubber Production Usiing intelligent Time Series
Analysis to Support Decision Making. In- tech Open, 3-15.
Richard I. Levin, D. S. (1992). Quantitative Approaches to Management (Eigth Edition).
McGraw-Hill.
Satya Pa, e. a. (2007). Statistical Models for Forecasting. Indiann Agricultural Statistics
Reseaarch, 80- 83.
56

Case Study On Milkfish Production of Illera Fish Farm

Caricato da

Informazioni sul documento

Descrizione originale:

Titolo originale

Copyright

Formati disponibili

Condividi questo documento

Condividi o incorpora il documento

Opzioni di condivisione

Hai trovato utile questo documento?

Questo contenuto è inappropriato?

Copyright:

Formati disponibili

Case Study On Milkfish Production of Illera Fish Farm

Caricato da

Copyright:

Formati disponibili

Case Study on Milkfish

Production of Illera Fish Farm

LIEZL GRACE M. JARDO

DR. JOY C LIZADA

to our families and friends for their moral support;

to Dr. Joy C. Lizada for her guidance and mentoring;

Data Preparation ........................................................................................................................................7

Sequence Chart Creation .........................................................................................................................7

iii. Benchmark Setting ....................................................................................................................................7

Summary and Implication ................................................................................................................... 10

Creation of Figures ................................................................................................................................. 11

Presentation of Data ............................................................................................................................................. 11

Objectives of the Study

Scope and Limitations

Sequence Chart Creation

Naive Forecasting Model

Simple Exponential Smoothing

Time Series Regression

The slope was computed using the formula:

Linear Trend Exponential Smoothing

Non Linear Exponential Smoothing

Summary and Implication

Figure 2. Annual production of milkfish Chanos chanos in kilograms (Kg).

Illera's Fish Farm Production (2006-2013)

Forecasts and Accuracy Testing

Naive Forecasting Model

Figure 4. Graph of naive forecasting model for production of milkfish.

Simple Exponential Smoothing

Figure 6. Forecast vs data with simple exponential smoothing.

Time Series Regression

Figure 7. Forecast using the time regression vs the data.

Linear Trend Exponential Smoothing

Figure 8. Comparison of exponential smoothing with a linear trend data vs forecast.

Solving for Linear Exponential Smoothing is shown in Appendix 5.

Non Linear Exponential Smoothing

Figure 9. Comparison of exponential smoothing with a non-linear trend data vs

Table 2. Summary of Forecasting Models

Ft+1 = (Xt + X t1 + Xt-2)/3

Conclusion and Recommendation

Appendix 1. Raw data of illera milkfish fish farm production.

Appendix 2. Nave Forecasting Model

15= 335,150.00/15= 22,343.33

Appendix 3. Moving average

Forecast for t +1 if N=3

MSE= e2 / 15= 319,975.00/15= 21,331.67

Forecast for t +1 if N=3

MSE= e2 / 15= 244,390.63/15= 16,292.71

Forecast for t +1 if N=3

Appendix 4. Simple Exponential Smoothing

MSE=.01 for warm up sample= e2 / 15= 120,922.80 /15= 8,061.52

MSE=0.2 for warm up sample= e2 / 15= 129,379.79 /15= 8,625.32

MSE=0.3 for warm up sample= e2 / 15=

135,578.14 /15= 9,038.54

MSE=0.4 for warm up sample= e2 / 15= 139,777.12 /15= 9,318.47

MSE=0.5 for warm up sample= e2 / 15= 142,570.93 /15= 9,504.73

MSE=0.5 for warm up sample= e2 / 15= 144,579.11 /15= 9,638.61

MSE=0.7 for warm up sample= e2 / 15= 146,269.44/15= 9,751.30

MSE=0.8 for warm up sample= e2 / 15= 147,927.56 /15= 9,861.84

MSE=.09 for warm up sample= e2 / 15= 149,708.10 /15= 9,980.54

Table 8. Simple exponential smoothing, =0.9

MSE= e2/15= 659,199.11 /15= 43,946.61

Appendix 5. Time Series Regression