University of Maryland, Baltimore County Department of Mathematics and Statistics STAT355 Fall 2011

FIRST MIDTERM EXAMINATION Exercise 1 [26pts] For any events A, B and C , with P (B ) > 0, 1. show that P (A|B ) + P (A |B ) = 1. [4pts] 2. if P (A|B ) > P (B ), show that P (A |B ) < P (A ). [4pts] 3. if A and B are independent events, show that A and B are also independent. [4pts] 4. if A and B are mutually exclusive, P (A) = p1 , and P (B ) = p2 , nd P (A B ) as a function of p1 and p2 . [4pts] Consider four events A1 , A2 , A3 , and A4 , and let pi = P (Ai ), for i = 1, 2, 3, 4. 5. Express the probability that at least one of these four events occurs in terms of the pi s. [5pts] 6. Express the probability that at least two of the events occur in terms of the pi s. [5pts]

Exercise 2 [14pts] Let x1 , x2 , ..., xn be a sample of n observations. Let be the population mean and x be the sample mean. 1. For what value of c is the quantity 2. Assuming that = x , compare
n i=1 (xi

c)2 minimized? [5pts]

n i=1 (xi

n i=1 (xi

x )2 and

)2 . [4pts]

3. Let a and b be constants and let yi = axi + b for i = 1, 2, ..., n. What is the relationship 2 between sample variances s2 x and sy ? [5pts]

Exercise 4 [20pts] Ultrasound was used to gather the accompanying corrosion data on the thickness of the oor plate of an aboveground tank used to store crude oil; each observation is the largest pit depth in the plate, expressed in milli-inches. 40 52 55 60 70 75 85 85 90 90 92 94 94 95 98 100 115 125 125 1. Construct a boxplot based on the ve-number summary of the data. [8pts] 2. Construct a stem-and-leaf display of the data. [8pts] 3. Without any calculation, compare the sample median x and the sample mean x . [4pts]

Exercise 5 [26pts] The population of a particular country consists of three ethnic groups. Each individual belongs to one of the four major blood groups. The accompanying joint probability table gives the proportions of individuals in the various ethnic group-blood group combinations. Blood A 0.141 0.106 0.200 Group B AB 0.018 0.006 0.008 0.004 0.065 0.020

Ethnic Group

1 2 3

O 0.135 0.082 0.215

Suppose that an individual is randomly selected from the population, and dene events by A = {type A selected}, B = {type B selected}, and C = { ethnic group 3 selected }. 1. Calculate P (A), P (C ), and P (A C ). [9pts] 2. Calculate both P (A|C ) and P (C |A). [6pts] 3. Explain in context what each of the probabilities in question 2. represents. [6pts] 4. If the selected individual does not have type B blood, what is the probability that he or she is from ethnic group 1? [5pts]

Exercise 6[14pts] One box contains six red balls and four green, and a second box contains seven red balls and three green balls. A ball is randomly chosen from the rst box and placed in the second box. Then a ball is randomly selected from the second box and placed in the rst box. 1. What is the probability that a red ball is selected from the rst box and a red ball is selected from the second box? [7pts] 2. At the conclusion of the selection process, what is the probability that the numbers of red and green balls in the rst box are identical to the numbers at the beginning? [7pts]