PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 1

UNIT 1
PROBABILITY THEORY

OBJECTIVES

General Objective To understand the concept of probability. Specific Objectives At the end of the unit you should be able to: Define Classical Probability and state the concept of Experiments and Events Define the following events: Conditional Events ndependent Events !utually Exclusive Events "ist the elements in the sample spaces To find the probability of an event based on Classical probability #se the set theory to explain: $enn diagrams complementary of sets #nion of sets ntersection of sets %ull sets

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 2

INPUT INPUT

&.' I TRO!"CTIO

S# $%c& in pe#ple's lives is affecte( b) c&ance* (rom the time a person awa)es until he or she goes to bed* that person ma)es decision regarding the possible events that are governed at least in part by chance. (or example* should carry an umbrella to class today+ ,ill my motorcycle battery last until the end of the semester+ -hould accept a new .ob+

Probability as a general concept can be defined as the chance of an event occurring. Probability is the basis of inferential statistics. For example, predictions are based on probability, and hypotheses are tested by using probability.

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 3

+*+ PROBABILITY A pr#babilit) e,peri$ent is a chance process that leads to well/defined results called outcomes. An #%tc#$e is the result of a single trial of a probability experiment. A sa$ple space is the set of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment. An event consists of the outcomes of a probability experiment. -ome sample spaces for various probability experiments are shown here. Experiment Toss one coin 1oll a die Answer a true/false 7uestion Toss two coins -ample space 0ead* Tail &* 2* 3* 4* 5* 6 True* (alse 0ead/head* tail/tail* head/tail* tail/head

E,a$ple +*+
&. a8 (ind the sample space for rolling two dice. b8 (ind the sample space for the gender of the children if a family has three children. #se 9 for boy and : for girl. #se a tree diagram to find the sample space for the gender of three children in a family* as in ACT $ T; &9

2.

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 4

S#l%ti#n t# E,a$ple +*+

+* a -ince each die can land in six different ways* and two dice are rolled* the sample space can be presented by a rectangular array. The sample space is the list of pairs of numbers in the chart. Die & & 2 3 4 5 6 +* b There are two genders* male and female* and each child could be either gender. 0ence there are eight possibilities* as shown here. BBB BBG BGB GBB GGG GGB GBG BGG & <&* &8 <2* &8 <3* &8 <4* &8 <5* &8 <6* &8 2 <&* 28 <2* 28 <3* 28 <4* 28 <5* 28 <6* 28 Die 2 3 4 <&* 38 <&* 48 <2* 38 <2* 48 <3* 38 <3* 48 <4* 38 <4* 48 <5* 38 <5* 48 <6* 38 <6* 48 5 <&* 58 <2* 58 <3* 58 <4* 58 <5* 58 <6* 58 6 <&* 68 <2* 68 <3* 68 <4* 68 <5* 68 <6* 68

-*
children
B B B G B G B G G G
B G

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 5

ACTIVITY +A

TEST YO"R " !ERSTA !I G 9E(=1E ;=# C=%T %#E , T0 T0E %E>T %TP#T?@ &. (ind the sample space for tossing two coins. 2. A die is rolled and a coin is tossed. -how the sample space.

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 6

.EE!BAC/ TO ACTIVITY +A

&. - A B<0* 08* <0* T8* <T* 08*<T*T8C 2. Die Coin 0ead <088 Tail <T8 & 0H1 +2 0T1 +2 2 0H1 -2 0T1 -2 3 0H1 32 0T1 32 4 0H1 42 0T1 42 5 0H1 52 0T1 52 6 0H1 62 0T1 62

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/

INPUT INPUT

+*-

CERTAI A ! CO7PLE7E TARY EVE TS

,hen a die is rolled* the sample space is - A B&* 2* 3* 4* 5* 6C. %ow let us define event A as Dnumber & appears on the dieEs surface* therefore complement of A <written as AE8 consists of all the number on the dieEs surface excluding &* therefore AE A B2* 3* 4* 5* 6C. Events can be presented pictorially by $enn diagrams. (igure <a8 shows a simple event E. The area inside the rectangle represents all the events in the sample space<-8. (igure <b8 -hows the complement of an event < E 8* which is the area inside the rectangle but outside the circle representing E.

E E E Eee

(ig a

(ig b

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ !

+*-*+

SET !ESIG ATIO S

&. -ample space* S is represented by elements in a rectangle. Any event* E is represented by its elements in a circle.

S E

2. E' or E is the complement of E. EE means event E never occurred.

E" E

3. E! E means either E& #r E2 #r b#t& have occurred. " E! E

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ #

4. E! E means both occurred.

"

E! E

5. E& and E2 are two mutually exclusive events in which E! E A . They have no shared outcomes.

E! E
" 6. E! , E , E #, .....E n are mutually exclusive and finite if and only if i8 Ei E j = for every i and .* ii8 E! E E # ...... E n = S

E! E#

E$

E%

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 10

+*-*- SET I!E TITIES The following identities can be used if there is a need. &. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. H.

A A = A
A =

AS = S

A A = A A B = B A
AS = A
A =

F. A B = B A G. A ' B C & = ' A B& ' A C & &'. A ' B C & = ' A B & ' A C & ( B( &&. ' A B &( = A &2. ' A B &( = A(B ( &3. A B = A ' A(B & &4. B = ' A B & ' A(B &

E,a$ple +*&. A A B&* 2* 3* 4* 5* 6C and 9 A B&* 3* 6* HC* find: i8 A B ii8 A B iii8 n< A B & 2. A A B&* 2* 3* 4* 5* 6C* 9 A B2* 4* 6C and C A B3* 5* H* GC* find: i8 A B ii8 A C iii8 B C iv8 A B C v8 n ' A B C &

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 11

S#l%ti#n t# e,a$ple +*+* i8 A B A B&* 3* 6C ii8 A B A B&* 2* 3* 4* 5* 6* HC iii8 n ' A B & A n<A8 I n<98 J n ' A B & A 6 I 4 J 3 A H K f A* 9 and C are finite sets* therefore:
n' A B C & = n' A& + n' B& + n'C & n' A B& n' A C & n' B C & + n' A B C &

-*

i8 A B A B2* 4* 6C ii8 A C A B3* 5C iii8 iv8

) A B C A B )
B C A B

v8 ' A B C &

n' A& + n' B & + n'C & n' A B & n' A C & n' B C & + n' A B C &

A6I3I4J3J2J'I' AF

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 12

ACTIVITY +B

TEST YO"R " !ERSTA !I G 9E(=1E ;=# C=%T %#E , T0 T0E %E>T %P#T?@ &. (ind the sample space for tossing two coins. 2. %asir normally has one type of drin) after lunch everyday. 0e randomly drin)s tea* coffee or simply plain water. f event A represents D!amat has one type of drin) after lunchE* list down the elements in the sample space - and event A. (ind the relationship between the sample space and the A set. 3. f n <A 98 A 45* n' A B & = % * and n<98 A 22* find n<A8.

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 13

.EE!BAC/ TO ACTIVITY +B

+* -. 3.

- A B00* 0T*T0*TT8 -ABtea* coffee* waterC* A A Btea* coffee* waterC* therefore - A A 2F

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 14

INPUT INPUT

+*3 CLASSICAL PROBABILITY Classical probability uses sample spaces to determine the numerical probability that an event will happen. =ne does not actually have to perform the experiment to determine that probability. Classical probability assumes that all outcomes in the sample space are e7ually li)ely to occur. (or example* when a single die is rolled* each outcome has the same probability of occurring. -ince there are six outcomes* each outcome has a probability of ! * .

E8%all) li9el) events are events that have the same probability of occurring

.#r$%la f#r Classical Pr#babilit) .#r$%la f#r Classical Pr#babilit) The probability of any event EE is The probability of any event is LLLLL%umber of outcomes in ELLLLLLLLLLLL LLLLL%umber of outcomes in ELLLLLLLLLLLL Total number of outcomes in the sample space Total number of outcomes in the sample space This probability is denoted by This probability is denoted by This probability is called classical pr#babilit) ** and itit uses This probability is called classical pr#babilit) and uses the sample space -. the sample space -.

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 15

Probability 1ule & The probability of any event E is a number <either a fraction or decimal8 between and including ' and &. This is denoted by + P ' E & ! . Probability 1ule 2 f an event E cannot occur <i.e.* the even contains no members in the sample space8* the probability is Mero. Probability 1ule 3 f an event is certain* the probability of E A &. Probability 1ule 4 The sum of the probabilities of the outcomes in the sample space is &

,he next example illustrates the probability rules

E,a$ple +*3
!. f a family has three children* find the probability that all the children are girls.

. ,hen a single die is rolled* find the probability of getting a G. #. ,hen a single die is rolled* what is the probability of getting a number less than H+

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 16

S#l%ti#n t# E,a$ple +*3 &. The sample space for the gender of children for a family that has three children is BBB1 BBG1 BGB1 GBB1 GGG1 GGB1 GBG1 an( BGG* <see t6he tree diagram in the basic conceptEs section8. -ince there is one way in eight possibilities for all three children to be girls* P<:::8 A
! -

2. -ince the sample space is &* 2* 3* 4* 5* and 6* it is impossible to get a G. =+ 0ence* the probability is P<G8 A + * 3. -ince all outcomes* &* 2* 3* 4* 5* and 6* are less than H* the probability is P<number less than H8 A
* *

=!

KK <1ule 48 (or example* in a roll of a fair die* each outcome in the sample space has a probability of ! * . 0ence* the sum of the probabilities of the outcomes is as shown. O%tc#$e Pr#babilit) S%$ &
! *

2
! *
! *

3
! *

4
! *

5
! *

6
! *

! *

! *

! *

! *

! *

A&

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 1

ACTIVITY +C

TEST YO"R " !ERSTA !I G 9E(=1E ;=# C=%T %#E , T0 T0E %E>T %P#T?@ &. ,hat is the probability of throwing a number greater than 4 with a die whose faces are numbered from & to 6+ 2. n a competition a priMe is given for correctly forecasting the results of six football matches. f a competitor sends in ten different forecasts* what is the probability* that he receives the priMe+ =ne red and one blac) marble are concealed in a bag. (ind the probability of drawing a red marble. ,hen three red and one blac) marbles are placed in the bag* find the probability of drawing one red marble. ,hat is the probability of drawing one blac) marble+

3. a8 b8

4. A box contains &32 rivets of which 32 are undersiMed* 4H are oversiMed and 62 are satisfactory. Determine the probability of drawing at random: <a8 one undersiMedN <b8 one oversiMedN and <c8 one satisfactory rivet from the box. 5. (our hundred resistors are examined and 6O are found to be defective. Determine the probability that one selected at random will be defective and also the probability that it will not be defective. 6. A purse contains H copper and &3 silver coins. Determine the probability of selecting a copper coin when one is ta)en at random. H. Determine the probability of winning a priMe in a raffle by buying 3 tic)ets* when there are H priMes and a total of 45' tic)ets sold. F. Determine the probability of an event not happening when the probability of it happening is HPG3.

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 1!

.EE!BAC/ TO ACTIVITY +C

. &. &P3 or '.33 or ## ! #

2. '.'&3H or &.3HO

3. <a8 Q* 4. <a8
#

<b8 R and S

# $/ #! <b8 <c8 !# !# ** $/

5. , #+ %+ 6.
/ +

H. HP&5' F. F6PG3

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 1#

INPUT INPUT

+*4 CO7PLE7E TARY EVE TS

The c#$ple$ent #f an event EE is the set of outcomes in the sample space The c#$ple$ent #f an event is the set of outcomes in the sample space that are not included in the outcomes of event E. The complement of EE is that are not included in the outcomes of event E. The complement of is denoted by EE or <read TE barU8. denoted by EE or <read TE barU8. R%le f#r c#$ple$entar) events R%le f#r c#$ple$entar) events

(ormula for empirical probability :iven a fre7uency distribution* the probability of an event being in a given class is P<E8A =
f * of which f is fre7uency for the class and n is the total n

fre7uencies in the distribution

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 20

E,a$ple +*4
&. 25 students were as)ed if they li)e this module. The responses were classified as TyesU* TnoU* or TundecidedU. The results were categoriMed in a fre7uency distribution* as shown. (ind the probability that a person responded TnoU. 1esponse ;es %o #ndecided Total (re7uency &5 F 2 25

2. n a sample of 5' students* 2& had type = blood* 22 had type A blood* 5 had type 9 blood* and 2 had type A9 blood. -et up a fre7uency distribution and find the following probabilities: a. A student has type = blood b. A person has type A or type 9 blood c. A person has neither type A nor type = blood d. A person does not have type A9 blood 3. 0ostel records indicated that students stayed in the hostel for the number of days during school brea) shown in the distribution. %umber of days stayed 3 4 5 6 H Total (re7uency &2H 32 56 &G 5 &2H

(ind the probabilities. a. A student stayed exactly 5 days. b. A student stayed less than 6 days c. A student stayed at most 4 days. d. A student stayed at least 5 days.

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 21

4. 9ased on the $enn diagram below* A and 9 are two events in the sample space -. (ind:

$+ B +

0 #% a0r

a. b. c. d. e. f.

P' A B& P' A B( &

P<A8 P<AE8 P<98 P<9E8

B& <g8 P ' A( B( & <h8 P ' A( <i8 P ' A B & <.8 P ' A B ( & B& <)8 P ' A( P ' A ( B (& <l8

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 22

S#l%ti#n t# E,a$ple +*4 !. P<E8A n = -% . T)pe A 9 A9 = Total

f

.re8%enc) 22 5 2 2& 5'

f ! = n %+

i. P<=8 A

% / = %+ ii. P<A or 98 A %+ + %+ <Add the fre7uencies of the two classes8 % / + %+ = %+ iii. P<neither A nor =8 A %+ <%either A nor = means tat a student has either type 9 or type A9 blood8. $$ = % iv. P<not A98 A & J P<A98 A ! %+ = %+

3.

a8 P<58 A %*

! / ! / +# ! / + %* ! / = !+# ! / <"ess than

b8 P<less than 6 days8 A !%

6 days means either 3* or 4 or 5 days.8 c8 P<at most 4 days8 A days.

!% ! /

+ !# / = !$// <At most 4 days means 3 or 4

-+ ! /

d8 P<at least 5 days8 A !%*/ + !!1/ + ! %/ = either 5* or 6* or H days.8

<At least 5 days means

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 23

4.

n<-8 A 35 I 5 I 2' I 4'

n' A& $+ = = n' S & !++ % n' A( & *+ # = = b. n<AE8 A 6' and P<AE8 A n' S & !++ % n' B & % ! = = c. n<98 A 25 and P<98 A n' S & !++ $ n' B ( & /% # = = d. n<9E8 A H5 and P<9E8 A n' S & !++ $ n' A B & % ! = = e. n<A 98 A 5 and P<A 98 A n' S & !++ + n' A B ( & #% / = = f. n<A 9E8 A 35 and P<A B E8 A n' S & !++ + P' A(B & + ! = = g. n<AE B& A 2' and P<AE 98 A n' S & !++ % P ' A(B ( & $+ = = h. n<AE 9E8 A 4' and P<AE 9E8 A n' S & !++ % P' A B& *+ # = = i. n<A 98 A 6' and P<A 98 A n' S & !++ % P' A B( & -+ $ = = .. n<A 9E8 A F' and P<A 9E8 A n' S & !++ % P ' A(B & *% !# = = ). n<AE B& A 65 and P<AE B & A n' S & !++ + n' A(B ( & 1% !1 = = l. n<AE B ( & A G5 and P<AE 9E8 A n' S & !++ +

a. n<A8 A 4' and P<A8 A

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 24

ACTIVITY +!

TEST YO"R " !ERSTA !I G 9E(=1E ;=# C=%T %#E , T0 T0E %E>T %P#T?@ &. f there are 5' tic)ets sold at a raffle and on person buys H tic)ets* what is the probability of that person winning a price+

2. A survey found that 53O of Polytechnic students thin) this module is the best of all the modules ever published. f a student is selected at random* find the probability that he or she will disagree or have no opinion at all. 3. A couple has three children. (ind each probability. a8 =f all boys b8 =f all girls c8 =f exactly two boys or two girls d8 =f at least one child of each gender

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 25

.EE!BAC/ TO ACTIVITY +!

&. 2. 3

/ %+

4HO a. ! b. -

! $

c.

# $

d.

# $

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 26

INPUT INPUT

+*5 THE A!!ITIO

R"LES .OR PROBABILITY

!any problems involve finding the probability of two or more events. (or example* in your class gathering* one might wish to )now* for a person selected at random* that a person is a female or is wearing glasses. n this case there are three possibilities to consider. &. The person is a female. 2. The person is wearing glasses. 3. The person is a female and she is wearing glasses. Consider another example. n the same gathering there are male and female students. f a person is selected at random* what is the probability that the person is a male or a female student+ n this case* there are only two possibilities: &. The person is a female. 2. The person is a male. The difference between the two examples is that in the first case* the person selected can be a female and is wearing glasses at the same time. n the second case* the person selected cannot be both a female and a male at the same time. n the second case* the two events are said to be mutually exclusiveN in the first case* they are not mutually exclusive.

Two events are $%t%all) e,cl%sive if they cannot occur at the same time <i.e.*

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 2

they have no outcomes in common8 Addition 1ule & ,hen two events A and 9 are $%t%all) e,cl%sive* the probability that A and 9 will occur is P0A #r B2 :P0A2 ; P0B2 Addition 1ule 2 f A and 9 are n#t $%t%all) e,cl%sive* then P<A or 98 A P<A8 I P<98 J P<A 98

E,a$ple +*5
&. A restaurant has 3 pieces of chic)en )aripap* 5 pieces of potato )aripap and 4 pieces of fish )aripap. f a customer selects a piece of )aripap for dessert* find the probability that it will be either potato or fish. 2. There are 2' buffaloes* &3 cows and 6 goats in a lorry. f an animal is selected at random* find the probability that that animal is either a cow or a goat. 3. A day of the wee) is selected at randomN find the probability that it is a wee)end day <-aturday or -unday8. 4. n a hospital unit there are eight nurses and five doctors. -even nurses and three doctors are females. f a staff person is selected the probability that the sub.ect is a nurse or a female.

S#l%ti#n t# E,a$ple +*5

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 2!

&. -ince there are &2 pieces of )aripap* P<potato or fish8 A P<potato8 I P<fish8 A The events are mutually exclusive. 2. P<cow or goat8 A P<cow8 I P<goat8 A
!# #1 * + #1 = !1 #1

% !

+ !$ = !1 =

# $

3. P<-aturday or -unday8 A P<-aturday8 I P<-unday8 A 4. The sample space is shown below: -taff %urses Doctors Total (emales !ales H & 3 2 &' 3 Total F 5 &3

! /

+! / =

The probability is P <nurse or male8 A P<nurse8 I P<male8 J P<male nurse8 # ! + !# !# = !+ A !# !#

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 2#

ACTIVITY +E

TEST YO"R " !ERSTA !I G 9E(=1E ;=# C=%T %#E , T0 T0E %E>T %P#T?@ &. At a convention there are seven mathematics instructors* five computer science instructors* three statistics instructors* and four science instructors. f an instructor is selected* find the probability of getting a science instructor or a math instructor. 2. n a statistics class there are &F .uniors and &' seniorsN 6 of the seniors are females* and &2 of the .uniors are males. f a student is selected at random* find the probabilities of selecting the following: a. a .unior or a female b. A senior or a female c. A .unior or a senior 3. A womanEs clothing store owner buys from three companies: A* 9* and C. The most recent purchases are shown here. Product Dresses 9louses A 24 &3 9 &F 36 C &2 &6

f one item is selected at random* find the following probabilities. a. t was purchased from company A or is a dress. b. t was purchased from company 9 or company C. c. t is a blouse or it was purchased from company A.

4. A grocery store employs cashiers* stoc) cler)s* and deli personnel. The distribution of employees according to marital status is shown next.

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 30

!arital status !arried

cashiers -toc) cler)s F &2

Deli personnel 3

%ot married

&5

f an employee is selected at random* find these probabilities: a. The employee is a stoc) cler) or married. b. The employee is not married. c. The employee is a cashier or is not married. 5. 1T!* T$3* and %T$H have 7uiM shows* comedies* and dramas. The number of each is shown here. Type of show VuiM show Comedy Drama 1T! Tv3 5 3 4 2 2 4 %tvH & F 2

f a show is selected at random* find these probabilities. a. The show is a 7uiM show or it is shown on T$3. b. The show is a drama or a comedy. c. The show is shown on %T$H or it is a drama.

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 31

.EE!BAC/ TO ACTIVITY +E

&. 2. 3. 4. 5.

!! !1 * a. / */ a. !!#a. $% !$ a. #!

$ c. & / -! $$ b. c. !!%1

b.

b.

$% # b. #!

c.

# !1 c. #!

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 32

INPUT INPUT

+*6 THE 7"LTIPLICATIO PROBABILITY

R"LES A ! CO !ITIO AL

The previous section showed that the addition rules are used to compute probabilities for mutually exclusive and not mutually exclusive events. This section introduces two more rules* the multiplication rules. These rules can be used to find the probability of two or more events that occur in se7uence. (or example* if a coin is tossed and then a die is rolled* one can find the probability of getting a head on the coin an( a 4 on the die. These two events are said to be in(epen(ent since the outcome of the first event <tossing a coin8 does not affect the probability outcome of the second event <rolling a die8.

,2o events 0 and BB are i$%&'&$%&$t ifif the fact that 0 occurs does not affect the ,2o events 0 and are i$%&'&$%&$t the fact that 0 occurs does not affect the probability of BB occurring. probability of occurring.

n order to find the probability of two independent events that occur in se7uence* one must find the probability of each event occurring separately and then multiply the answers. (or example* if a coin is tossed twice* the probability of getting two heads is ! . ! = ! $ . The result can be verified by loo)ing at the sample space* 00* 0T* T0* and TT. Then P <008 A
! $

!ultiplication 1ule & ,hen two events are independent* the probability of both

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 33

occurring is P<A and 98 A P<A8.P<98

E,a$ple +*6
&. A coin is flipped and a die is rolled. (ind the probability of getting a head on the coin and a 4 on the die. 2. An urn contains three red balls* two blue balls* and five white balls. A ball is selected and its color noted. Then it is replaced. A second ball is selected and its color noted. (ind the probability of each of the following. a. selecting two blue balls. b. -electing a blue ball and then a red ball. c. -electing a red ball and then a blue ball. 3. A pool found that 46O of students say they have suffered great stress at least once in the exam wee). f three students are selected at random* find the probability that all three will say that they suffer great stress al least once in the exam wee).

S#l%ti#n t# E,a$ple +*6

! &. P<head and 48 A P<head8.P<48 A ! . ! * = ! * note that the sample space for the coin is 0* TN and for the die is &* 2* 3* 4* 5* 6.

2. a. P<blue and blue8 A P<blue8.P<blue8 A c. P <red and blue8 A P<red8.P<blue8 A

!+ !+

$ = !++ =

! %

b. P<blue and white8 A P<blue8.P<white8 A

% !+ !+ # * !+ !+ !++

. =

!+ ! = !++ = !+ # = %+

3. "et - denote stress* then P<- and - and -8 A P<-8.P<-8.P<-8 A <'.468<'.468<'.468 A'.'GH

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 34

ACTIVITY +.

TEST YO"R " !ERSTA !I G 9E(=1E ;=# C=%T %#E , T0 T0E %E>T %P#T?@ &. Two balls are drawn in turn with replacement from a bag containing F red balls* &5 white balls* 24 blac) balls and &H orange balls. Determine the probabilities of having: <a8 two red ballsN <b8 a red and a white ballN <c8 no orange ballsN <d8 a blac) and red or blac) and orange ballN <e8 at least one blac) ballN <f8 a white ball on the first draw but the second ball not white. 2. The probability of three events happening are &PF for event A* &P5 for event 9* and 2PH for event C. Determine: <a8 the probability of all three events happeningN <b8 the probability of event A and 9 but not C happeningN <c8 the probability of only event 9 happeningN and <d8 the probability of event A or event 9 happening but not event C. 3. =ne bag contains 3 red and 5 blac) marbles and a second bag contains 4 green and H white marbles. =ne marble is drawn from the first bag and two marbles from the second bag* without replacement. Determine the probability of havingN <a8 one red and two white marblesN <b8 no green marblesN and <c8 either one blac) and two green or one blac) and two white marbles.

.EE!BAC/ TO ACTIVITY +.

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 35

+*

<a8 &P64 <b8 &5P256

+1 $+1* /% <d8 %*

<f8 <g8

#-+/ $+1* /#% $+1*

<c8

<e8 3GP64 -* <a8 &P&4' <b8 &P&56 <c8 &PF <d8 &3P56 <a8 63P44' <b8 2&P55 <c8 2HPFF

3*

INPUT INPUT

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 36

+*<

CO !ITIO AL PROBABILITY

n the previous section* the events were independent of each other* since the occurrence of the first event in no way affected the outcome of the second event. =n the other hand* when the occurrence of the first event changes the probability of the second event* the two events are said to be (epen(ent. 1efer to example 2 <b8. The probability of selecting the blue ball is !+ . f the ball is n#t replaced* then the probability of selecting the second <white8 ball is nine balls remaining.
% 1

since there are only

3hen the outcome or occurrence of the first events affects the outcome or 3hen the outcome or occurrence of the first events affects the outcome or occurrence of the second event in such aa 2ay that the probability isis changed, the occurrence of the second event in such 2ay that the probability changed, the events are said to be %&'&$%&$t . events are said to be %&'&$%&$t.

The c#n(iti#nal pr#babilit) of an event 9 in relationship to event A is the probability that event 9 occurs after event A has already occurred. The notation for conditional probability is P<9PA8. this notation does not mean that 9 is divided by AN rather* it means the probability that event 9 occurs given that event A has already occurred. n the ball example <ex 2b8* P<9PA8 is 1 since the first ball was n#t replaced.

!ultiplication 1ule 2 ,hen two events are dependent* the probability of both occurring is P<A and 98 AP<A8.P<9PA8

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 3

The conditional probability of an event 9 in relationship to an event A was defined as the probability that event 9 occurs after event A has already occurred. t can be found by dividing both sides of the e7uation for multiplication by P<A8* as shown: P<A and 98 A P<A8.P<9PA8 therefore:
P ' AandB& = P ' B 4 A& P ' A&

The $enn diagram for conditional probability is shown in the figure below. n this case* P<9PA8 A
P' A 5 B& which is represented by the area in the P ' A&

intersection or overlapping part of the circles A and 9 divided by area of circle A. The reasoning here is that if one assumes A has occurred* the A become the sample space for the next calculation and is the denominator of the probability fraction
P' A 5 B& . The numerator P<A W 98 represents the total probability of the P ' A& P' A 5 B& . mposing a condition reduces the sample space. P ' A&

part 9 contained in A. 0ence* P<A W 98 becomes the numerator of the probability fraction

6enn diagram for 7onditional probability 6enn diagram for 7onditional probability

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 3!

P'0&

P'0 and B&

P'B&

P'B40& 8

+*<*+ PROBABILITIES .OR =AT LEAST> The multiplication rules can be used with the complementary and non/ complementary events to simplify solving probability problems involving Tat leastU. The next examples illustrate how this is done.

E,a$ple +*< &. n a shipment of 25 radios* 2 are defective. f two radios are randomly selected and tested* fond the probability that both are defective if the first one is not replaced after it has been tested.

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 3#

2. 9ox & contains two red balls and one blue ball. 9ox 2 contains three blue balls and on red ball. A coin is tossed. f it falls heads up* box & is selected and a ball is drawn. f it falls tails up* box 2 is selected and a ball is drawn. (ind the probability of selecting a red ball. 3. A box contains white chips and blac) chips. A person selects two chips without replacement. f the probability of selecting a blac) chip an( a white chip is !% %* *
# and the probability of selecting a blac) chip on the first draw is * find the probability of selecting the white chip on the second draw* ?iven that the first chip selected was a blac) chip.

4. The probability Ali par)s in a no/par)ing Mone an( gets a par)ing tic)et is '.'6* and the probability that Ali cannot find a legal par)ing space and has to par) in the no/par)ing Mone is '.2'. =n !onday* Ali arrives at school and has to par) in a no/par)ing Mone. (ind the probability that he will get a par)ing tic)et. 5. A recent survey as)ed &'' people if they thought -ardin Cap Ayam is the best sardin. The results of the survey are shown in the table. Gen(er !ale (emale Total Yes 32 F 4' # &F 42 6' T#tal 5' 5' &''

(ind these probabilities. a. The respondent answered Tyes*U given that the respondent was a female. b. The respondent was a male* given that the respondent answered Tno.U

6. H.

A coin is tossed five times. (ind the probability of getting at least one tail. A survey reported that 3O of pens sold in the Polite)ni) are Pilot pens. f 4 students who purchased a pen are randomly selected* find the probability that at least one purchased a Pilot pen.

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 40

F.

A coin is tossed three times. (ind the probability of getting i8 Exactly 2 tails ii8 At least 2 tails

S#l%ti#n t# E,a$ple +*< &. -ince the event are dependent* P<D& and D28 AP<D&8.P<D2PD&8 A <2P258.<&P248 A 2P6'' A &P3'' 2. ,ith the use of a tree diagram* the sample space can be determined as shown in the figure. (irst assign the probabilities to each branch. %ext* using the multiplication rule* multiply the probabilities for each branch.

Ball
!

P'B!& 9

Box !

P':4B!& 4# P'B4B!& !4#

:ed Blue :ed Blue

.# =
! ! #

*
! *

. =

P'B & 9

Box

P':4B!& ; P'B4B & <

.! $ =
.# = $

! # -

(inally* use the addition rule* since a red ball can be obtained from box & or box2N = -$ + #$ = !! P<red8 A * + ! $ Tree diagrams can be used when the events are independent or dependent* and they can also be used for se7uences of three or more events.

3. "et 9 A selecting a blac) chip , A selecting a white chip

P' B 5 W & = Then P<,P98 A P' B&

!% %* # -

% 0ence the probability of selecting a white /

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 41

chip on the second draw given that the first chipX selected was blac) is 4. "et %A par)ing in a no/par)ing Mone and T A getting a tic)et* then P<TP%8 A
P ' N 5 T & +.+* = = +.#+ P' N & +. +

% /

0ence* Ali has a '.3' probability of

getting a par)ing tic)et* given that he par)ed in a no/par)ing Mone. 5. "et ! A respondent was a male ; A respondent answered TyesU ( A respondent was a female % A respondent answered TnoU a8 The problem is to find P<;P(8. The rules states P<;P(8 A P<; and (8 PP<(8. The probability P<( and ;8 is the number of females who responded TyesU divided by the total number of respondents: P<( and ;8 AFP&'' The probability P<(8 is the probability of selecting a female: P<(8 A 5'P&'' Then* P<;P(8 A b.
P' F 5 Y & - 4 !++ $ = = P' F & %+ 4 !++ %

The problem is to find P<!P%8 P<!P%8 A

P ' N 5 M & !- 4 !++ # = = P' N & *+ 4 !++ !+

6.

t is easier to find the probability of the complement of the event* which is Tall heads*U and then subtract the probability from & to get the probability of at least one tail. P<E8 A & J P< E 8 P<at least & tail8 A & J P<all heads8 P<all heads8 A <&P285 A #!

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 42

0ence* P<at least one tail8 A & / H.

! #

#! #

"et E A at least one Pilot pen purchased and E A no Pilot pen purchased. Then* P<E8 A '.'3 and P< E 8 A & J '.'3 A '.GH P<no Pilot pen purchased8 A <'.GH8<'.GH8<'.GH8 A '.FF5N hence* P<at least one Pilot pen purchased8 A & J '.FF5 A '.&&5

F.

# +! +! =i8 P<exactly 2 tails8 A ! ii8 P<at least 2 tails8 A P<2 tails and & head8 I P<3 tails8 # ! +! A- = <YYDraw a tree diagram to verify your answer8

ACTIVITY +G

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 43

TEST YO"R " !ERSTA !I G 9E(=1E ;=# C=%T %#E , T0; T0E %E>T %P#T?@ &. The probabilities of an engine failing are given by: p &* failure due to overheatingN p2* failure due to ignition problemsN p3* failure due to fuel bloc)age. ,hen p& A &PH* p2 A 2PG and p3 A 3P&&* determine the probabilities of: <a8 both p& and p2 happeningN <b8 either p2 or p3 happening <c8 both p& and either p2 or p3 happening. 2. Actuarial tables show that the life expectancy of three men* A* 9 and C* over a twenty/year period depends on their age and is given by PA A 4P&5* P9 A &&P&5 and PC A &4P&5. Determine the probabilities that in twenty years: <a8 all three men will be aliveN <b8 A will be alive but 9 and C will be deadN <c8 At least one man will be alive. 3. ,hen exploration for oil occurs a test hole is drilled. f as a result of this test drilling it seems li)ely that really large 7uantity of oil exist* <a bonanMa8 then the well is said to have structure. Examination of past records reveals the following informationN / 9onanMa %o 9onanMa Total -tructure '.2' '.&5 '.35 %o structure '.'5 '.6' '.65 Total '.25 '.H5 &.''

a8 (ind P<9onanMaPstructure8 b8 <%o 9onanMaPstructure8 c8 P<9onanMaPno structure8 d8 P<%o bonanMaPno structure8

4. -uppose we have &'' urns. Type & urn <of which there are H'8 each contains 5 blac) and 5 white balls. Type 2 urn <which there are 3'8 each contains F blac) and 2 white balls. An urn is randomly selected and a ball is drawn from that urn. f the ball chosen was blac)* what is the probability the ball came from a type & urn+

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 44

.EE!BAC/ TO ACTIVITY +G

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 45

&. <a8 2P63 <b8 4GPGG 2. <a8

*!* !* <b8 ##/% ##/%

<c8 HPGG <c8

###! ##/%

3. <a8 '.5H& <b8 '.42G 4. '.5G3

<c8 '.'HH

<d8 '.G23

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 46

SEL.@ASSES7E T +

;ou are approaching success. Tr) all t&e 8%esti#ns in this self assessment section and chec) your answers with those given in the (eedbac) to the -elf /Assessment & on the next page. f you have problems* consult your instructor. :ood luc).

&. -tate which events are independent and which are dependent. i8 Tossing a coin and throwing a die ii8 Drawing a ball from an urn* not replacing it* and then drawing a second ball. iii8 :etting a raise in salary and purchasing a new car. iv8 Driving on ice and having accident. v8 0aving a large show siMe and having a high V. vi8 A father being left/handed and a daughter being left/handed. vii8 -mo)ing excessively and having lung cancer. viii8 Eating an excessive amount of ice cream and smo)ing an excessive amount of cigarettes. 2. A survey found that 6FO of boo) buyers are 4' or older. f two boo) buyers are selected at random* find the probability that both are 4' or older. 3. A salesman finds that the probability of ma)ing a sale is '.23. f he tal)s to four customers today* find the probability that he will ma)e four sales. 4. (ind the probability of selecting two people at random who were born in the same month. 5. f three people are selected* find the probability that all three were born in Zanuary. 6. ,hat is the probability that a husband* wife and daughter have the same birthday+

H. A radio uses six batteries* two of which are defective. f two are selected at random without replacement* find the probability that the first battery tests good and the second one is defective.

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 4

F. =ut of &2' students* G' of them put on white t/shirts. f five students are selected at random* one by one* find the probability that all will put on white t/ shirts. G. #rn & contains five red balls and three blac) balls. #rn 2 contains three red balls and one blac) ball. #rn 3 contains four red balls and two blac) balls. f an urn is selected at random and a ball is drawn* find the probability it will be red. &'. f a die is rolled three times* find the probability of getting at least one even n%$ber.

PROBABILITY THEORY

C 5606/1/ 4!

.EE!BAC/ TO SEL.@ASSES7E T +

0ave you tried all the 7uestions++ f T;E-U* chec) your answer now. &. a. ndependent b. Dependent c. Dependent d. Dependent 2. '.462 3. '.''3 4. &P&2 5. &P&H2F 6. &P&33*225 H. 4P&5 F. 243P&'24 G. 4GPH2 &'. HPF e. ndependent f. Dependent g. dependent h. ndependent