Poly Medicure Ltd.

Retail Research Initiating Coverage
Medical Devices & Disposables 25 November, 2013
Poly Medicure Ltd.

Poly Medicure ltd. (Polymed), a leader in medical disposables in India. Established in the year 1995, with a view to mark a presence in medical devices and disposables industry. The Company is engaged in manufacturing and marketing of medical disposables, products like Intravenous (IV) Cannula, Blood Transfusion (BT) set and Insulin syringes are the top grosser. Polymed has manufacturing facilities at Faridabad (Unit II - USFDA approved) and Haridwar in India and a subsidiary in China. The Company fetches around 70% of its revenue from exports and 30% from domestic markets; Europe contributes 40% of the total export business. We initiate coverage on Poly Medicure Ltd. with Buy recommendation for the target price of Rs.431, indicating 27% upside. Leadership in organized medical disposable market: Polymed commands leadership position in an organized medical disposable market in India, producing more than 90 products. It has gained expertise in manufacturing variety of products like IV cannula, Safety IV cannula and insulin syringe. It is leading exporter and supplier of IV Cannulae, Safety IV Cannuale, IV infusion sets and blood bags to over 80 countries across the world. Easing off capacity constraint by setting up new facility at Jaipur: To ease off capacity constraints at Faridabad (Unit II) plant, the Company is in the process of setting up a new plant at Jaipur in Mahindra SEZ which would get commercialized by the end of Q4FY14. The total estimated cost for setting up this plant would be around Rs.38crs out of which Rs.21crs would be raised via term loan and Rs.17crs via internal accruals. Export business is expected to grow at a CAGR of 16% during FY13-FY15e: Exports contributes around 70% (FY13) of its total turnover, which comes to Rs.185crs. Export market is divided into two parts - sales to OEMs and sales via distributors. Export revenues have grown at a CAGR of 18.8% during FY11-FY13 and we believe it to grow at a CAGR of 16% between FY13-FY15e. Valuation and Recommendation: Recently, the stock has run up sharply on the back of robust Q2FY14 performance, we foresee similar quarterly performance in coming quarters. At the current market price of Rs.340 the stock is trading at a P/E of 20x and 14x of its FY14e and FY15e earnings, respectively. The value of Polymed's business is pegged at Rs431 per share by discounting FY15e EPS of Rs24 by 18x.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY Year FY12 FY13 FY14e FY15e Sales 217.0 259.8 306.5 371.6 EBITDA 46.9 51.7 72.6 93.6 PBT 28.8 33.1 48.4 69.4 PAT 19.5 24.2 37.0 52.7 EPS (Rs) 17.7 22.0 16.8 23.9 (Rs. in Crs.) DPS (Rs) 3.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 BVPS (Rs) 84.9 102.3 70.1 90.8
BUY
Current Price Target Price Upside / (Downside)
STOCK DATA BSE Code NSE Code Bloomberg Code 52 Week High / Low (Rs.) Face Value (Rs.) Diluted Number of Shares (Cr.) Market Cap. (Rs Cr.) Avg. Yearly Volume SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Particulars Promoters FII's Other Institutions Public & Others Total Sept-13 48.7 0.0 0.0 51.3 100.0 Jun-13 Mar-13 Dec-12 48.7 0.0 0.0 51.3 100.0 48.7 0.0 0.0 51.3 100.0 48.7 0.0 0.0 51.3 100.0 531768 POLYMED PLM IN 389 / 190 10 2.2 748.2 4,582
Rs Rs %
340 431 27
RETURNS STATISTICS (%) 3M Sensex Polymed 8.9 38.5 6M 0.9 33.6 12 M 9.2 65.1
FINANCIAL RATIOS (x) Particulars PE P/BV EV/EBIDTA EV/Sales Mcap/sales Price/sales PEG Div. Yield (%) FY12 19.2 4.0 8.6 1.9 1.7 1.5 -1.9 0.9 FY13 15.4 3.3 8.0 1.6 1.4 1.3 0.6 0.6 FY14e 20.2 4.8 11.1 2.6 2.4 1.1 -0.9 0.6 FY15e 14.2 3.7 8.5 2.1 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.6
RELATIVE TO SENSEX
175 150 125 100 75 50 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Polymed Sensex
ANKIT GOR - Research Analyst Regd. Office: SBICAP Securities Limited, 191, Maker Towers 'F', Cuffe Parade, Mumbai 400 005 For a list of our branches refer to our website: www.sbicapsec.com
Poly Medicure Ltd.

Leadership in organized medical disposable market Polymed commands leadership position in an organized medical disposable market in India, producing more than 90 products. It has gained expertise in manufacturing variety of products like IV cannula, Safety IV cannula and insulin syringe. It is the leading exporter and supplier of IV Cannulae, Safety IV Cannuale, IV infusion sets and blood bags to over 80 countries across the world. Although the domestic market is very competitive due to presence of unorganized and established players like Ramsons and Global Surgimed Industries, the Company has been able to increase its domestic presence in 2013 through innovation, product up-gradation and strengthening of distribution channel. Top five products
Product IV cannula IV safe Blood Bag BT Set Safety IV cannula Therapy Infusion therapy Infusion therapy Blood mgmt. and collection system Blood mgmt. and collection system Infusion therapy Market share rank 1 3 3 4 3 Avg. price (Rs.) 8 20 65 35 20
Medical Devices & Disposables
Source: SSL Research, Company
Except safety IV cannula, other products yield average margin of 15-20%. Safety IV cannula gives 30-35% margins. Polymed is more focusing on rapidly expanding infusion therapeutic area by setting up new facility which will chiefly cater to export markets. Higher quest for scale - focus is on domestic markets Over the years, overseas markets are the Company's major revenue drivers. Currently export business is contributing 70% of the total revenue as compared to 75% in FY11 and the management is confident of bring this to 65% by FY15. The Company wants to have bigger pie of the growing Indian market of medical devices and disposables. Polymed is in the process of scaling activities domestically by increasing footprints across India via expansion of distribution network to reach more number of hospitals and doctors.
REVENUE COMPOSITION (%)
Export 100% 25 80% 60% 75 40% 20% FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14e FY15e 73 70 68 65 27 30 32 35 Domestic
2 November 25, 2013
SBICAP Securities Limited
Poly Medicure Ltd.

Domestically it operates in two ways (1) by filling government tenders and (2) distribution to private hospitals and doctors. Presently, volume driven tendering business constitutes 53% of the total domestic business and the rest is via private hospitals and doctors. The Company has plans to focus on domestic market and which can be seen from trends in revenue contribution where the balance has been shifting towards the domestic business. The prime reason for this is the higher margin which the Company gets from domestic sales (~20-25%) as compared to exports (~15-20%). Domestic business has grown at a CAGR of 35% between FY11-FY13 and we expect it to grow at a CAGR of 29% between FY13FY15e. Easing off capacity constraint by setting up new facility at Jaipur The Company has a state of art manufacturing facilities at Faridabad (Unit I and Unit II) and Haridwar, cumulative capacity of 500 million pieces/ annum of healthcare disposables. About 70% of the total capacity is allocated to Faridabad (Unit II - USFDA approved) plant, which is primarily producing export oriented IV cannulas and Safety Cannulas and running at around 105% of the total capacity with no further scope for an expansion.

DOMESTIC BUSINESS BREAK-UP
47%
53%
Tendering business Dist. to private hospitals & doctors
To ease off capacity constraints at Faridabad (Unit II) plant, the Company is in the process of setting up a new plant at Jaipur in Mahindra SEZ which would get commercialized by the end of Q4FY14. The total estimated cost for setting up this plant would be around Rs.38crs out of which Rs.21crs would be raised via term loan and Rs.17crs via internal accruals. This capacity would mainly add to cannula production and products from this plant would be exported. It has planned to increase capacity gradually; initially it will produce less than 100 million units of cannulas. This additional capacity would help the Company to cater increased demand from overseas markets and would add incremental revenues of around Rs.18crs in FY15 and about Rs.30crs. in FY16. Plants, products and capacity Faridabad Unit I Products manufactured IV cannulas Urine bags Catheters Blood Bags Others Capacity (million pieces/annum) Capacity Utilization (%) 125 95 350 105 25 95 Operations yet to start
Jaipur (commercialized Unit II IV cannulas Safety Cannula Haridwar Cannulas IV sets Others by Q4FY14) IV cannulas IV sets
November 25, 2013 3
Poly Medicure Ltd.

Automation to bring in quality and efficiency - will lead to margin expansion The Company has initiated an automation process in August 2012 and expected to get complete by the end of this financial year. Previously all plants used to operate on labour intensive assembly line. Recently supply of migrant labours from regions like Bihar, UP and MP has gone down, led to labour shortage. An automation process aims at reducing dependency on labour and improves quality and efficiency. The Company has recently invested about Rs.50-60crs in automation and should cater Polymed for next 10-15 years. Polymed is driven by experienced technocrats, they have and they would ensure that a quality automated process is installed which would help the company to reduce labor cost, obstacles in production due to labor shortage, quality improvement and assurance and reduction of wastage. All of these would result in higher quality. A completion of an automation process would enable it to reduce time taken to convert raw material (plastic granules) to finished goods (like Cannula and blood bags). Current conversation rate is around 7-10 days, as it follows made-to-order production style; we expect it to come down to 5-8 days post fully automation. This will incrementally add around 80 bps to its EBITDA margin. Export business is expected to grow at a CAGR of 16% during FY13-FY15e Poly Medicure Ltd. has a presence four countries namely India, China, US and Egypt through which it caters to more than 90 countries world over. Around 70% of its total revenues derive from international markets, of which Europe is at top with 40% of its total export revenues, followed by Asia (25%), Africa (15%) and remaining from RoW.
EXPORT REVENUES BREAK-UP (GEOGRAPHY-WISE)
20% 40% 15% 25%
Europe Asia Africa RoW
4 November 25, 2013
Poly Medicure Ltd.

The Company has JV in Egypt - Ultra for Medical Products. The Company has achieved top line of Rs.40crs. in CY12. Poly Medicure (Laiyang) Co. Ltd, Chinese subsidiary which has started commercial production during FY10 with a turnover of Rs.1cr and in FY13 it has achieved a turnover of Rs.10crs. It had also acquired a subsidiary in USA, US Safety Syringes Co. in 2007, till now no operational activities have been undertaken here. Going further, Polymed is planning to close down this unit and liquidate which would fetch them around Rs.80 lacs (investment X 3x), amount will reflect in FY15. Exports contributes around 70% (FY13) of its total turnover, which comes to Rs.185crs. Export market is further divided into two parts - sales to OEMs and sales via distributors. In OEM segment it has about 15 clients, contributes around Rs.56crs (30% of its total export revenues) and remaining 70% export business comes from distributors across the world. New plant at Jaipur will definitely give impetus to export revenues. Export revenues have grown at a CAGR of 18.8% during FY11-FY13 and we believe it to grow at a CAGR of 16% between FY13-FY15e. Indian healthcare industry is poised to grow Despite the second most populous country in the world, healthcare expenditure is very meager in India as compared to other countries. As a percentage of GDP, US spends highest on healthcare (17%) followed by European countries (ranging between 7-9%), while India spends only 4% (represents untapped potential) Indian government is also increasing budgeted allocation YoY, in the budget 2013-14 it has allocated Rs.373.3 billion (8% increased YoY). Being at a nascent stage Indian healthcare industry is poised to grow, it is aspiring to touch USD120 billion mark by 2015 and active participants will get benefit of this buoyancy. Hospital beds per thousand people in India are 0.7 (Source: World Bank) which is not at all comparable to other countries. Increased standard of living, increasing per capita income and demand for better medical facilities will require this number to at least match up the level of BRIC countries. Government plan is to targeting 2 hospital beds per thousand people in next 10 years, this will swell up the demand for medical devices and disposables, going ahead.
INDIAN HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY SIZE (BN $)
140 120 120 100 80 60 40 20 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 45

EXPORT REVENUES (Rs. In Crore)
300 250 212 200 160 150 100 50 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14e FY15e 131 185 246
HOSPITAL BED PER 1000 POPULATION

4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 USA UK Brazil China India 0.7 3.1 2.4
3.9 3.0
Source: WHO & World Bank
HEALTHCARE SPEND AS % OF GDP
22
R CAG
65
20%
79
18
96
18 14 10 6 2
France Germany Japan USA U.K Australia India
11 9
12 9 10 4
Source: WHO & World Bank
Source: OECD
November 25, 2013 5
Poly Medicure Ltd.

Indian medical device and disposable industry is set to grow $7.8 billion by 2016 Indian medical device and disposable industry is currently valued at $4.4 billion and is expected to reach $7.8 billion by 2016 moving at a speed of 15.5% CAGR, being a market leader in the disposable industry, Polymed is set capture larger pie of this growing market. Indian medical devices and disposable market can be categorized into three segments namely, medical equipments which account for 55% of total Indian medical devices market, medical implants - account for 25% and medical disposable segment contributes remaining 20%. Around 90% of the demand for medical equipments and implants is met by imports but in case of medical disposables more than 70% of the demand is met by domestic sources. Here strategy of Polymed will yield fruits to focus on domestic market to capture remaining market share.
MEDICAL DEVICE MARKET BREAKUP
INDIAN MEDICAL DEVICE INDUSTRY SIZE $ BN

8 7
20% 55% 25%
Medical equipment medical implants Medical disposables
6 5 4 3 2 2011 3.6 4.1
CAG
% 15.5
5.8 4.4
7.8 6.7
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
2016E
Source: Grant Thornton , Healthcare Pulse, 2013
Source: Grant Thornton , Healthcare Pulse, 2013
6 November 25, 2013
Poly Medicure Ltd.
Concerns
Competition from unorganized players Though Polymed is growing faster, we cannot ignore the presence of unorganized players. Entry barriers are low, as this industry is not capital intensive. Global slowdown could hurt exports As the company receives majority of its revenues from exports fluctuations in international economies have a direct impact. Europe and U.S account for more than 50% of the total company's exports, so any slowdown in these economies could lead to lower top line as compared our estimates. Currency risk The company procures 90% of its raw material from international markets and hence if rupee depreciates further, could increase the cost of raw material leading to lower margins although the Company has a natural hedge due to its exports but it's a partial one. Small cap Polymed is a small cap. Before investing into any small cap companies one has to understand its nature i.e. small caps are tend react more sharply to market movement.
November 25, 2013 7
Poly Medicure Ltd.
Financial Performance
NET SALES (Crs.) & GROWTH (%) NET PROFIT (Crs.) & MARGINS (%)
Sales in Cr.
450 350 250
Growth
30% 25% 20% 15%
55 45 35 25 15 5 FY09
PAT in Cr.
PAT Margin (%)
15% 13% 11% 9% 7% 5%
150 50 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14e FY15e
10% 5%
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14e
FY15e
EBITDA (Crs.) & MARGINS (%)
ROCE & ROE (%)
EBITDA in Cr.
100 85
EBITDA Margin (%)

30% 25% 30% 25% 20% 20% 15% 15% 10% 5% FY09 FY10
ROCE
ROE
70 55 40 25 10 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14e FY15e 10%
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14e
FY15e
Valuation and Recommendation

Having notable presence in domestic disposable industry, Polymed is poised to grow. A new facility at Jaipur would give impetus to its export business. Once an automation process completes at its all plants, we will see better and timely output with reduction in the wastages, this would also boost EBITDA margin. As the standard living increases along with the requirement of quality healthcare services, overall demand for branded disposables will rise, Polymed is well positioned to capture the benefits of growing demand. We expect its top line and bottom line to grow at a CAGR of 13% and 48% respectively between FY13-FY15e. Recently, the stock has run up sharply on the back of robust Q2FY14 performance, we foresee similar quarterly performance in coming quarters. At the current market price of Rs.340 the stock is trading at a P/E of 20x and 14x of its FY14e and FY15e earnings, respectively. The value of Polymed's business is pegged at Rs431 per share by discounting FY15e EPS of Rs24 by 18x.
8 November 25, 2013
Poly Medicure Ltd.
Financial Statements
Statement of Profit and Loss
Particulars Sales Other Income Total Income EBIDTA Interest Depreciation PBT Tax PAT FY12 217.0 0.6 217.6 46.9 7.0 11.7 28.8 9.6 19.2 FY13 259.8 0.3 260.0 51.7 5.9 13.0 33.1 9.8 23.3
Figures in Cr.
FY14e 306.5 0.6 307.1 72.6 6.5 18.2 48.4 12.6 35.8 FY15e 371.6 0.8 372.4 93.6 8.4 16.5 69.4 18.4 51.0
Balance Sheet
Particulars EQUITY & LIABILITIES Shareholder's Fund Capital res. on Consol. Minority Interest Non-Current Liabilities Current Liabilities Total ASSETS Fixed Assets 90.0 2.4 0.0 7.2 1.2 0.6 80.2 181.7 99.8 4.2 0.0 15.0 1.0 0.8 93.7 214.7 93.5 0.0 0.1 27.3 60.8 181.7 112.6 0.0 0.0 34.4 67.6 214.6 FY12 FY13
Figures in Cr.
FY14e FY15e
154.5 0.0 0.0 56.1 81.4 292.0
200.0 0.0 0.0 40.1 97.4 337.6
Cash Flow Statement

Particulars Net Profit before Tax Depreciation Others Optg. Profit before WC Chg. Change in Working Capital Cash Flow Before Direct Tax Others Cash generated from opt. CF From Investing Activities Purchase of Fixed Assets Others -26.9 0.5 -30.8 0.2 -30.6 FY12 94.1 11.7 5.8 46.8 -8.2 38.6 -5.6 33.0 FY13 146.0 13.0 5.5 51.6 -14.0 37.6 1.2 38.8
144.4 4.9 0.0 15.6 0.8 1.3 125.2 292.0
137.3 7.6 0.0 19.7 0.7 1.9 170.4 337.6
Figures in Cr.
FY14e 177.8 18.2 3.1 69.8 -14.2 55.6 4.1 59.7 FY15e 224.4 16.5 4.0 89.9 -37.5 52.5 11.6 64.1
Non-Current Inv. Deferred Tax Assets Long-term loans & adv. Other non-current assets Cash & Cash Equivalents Other Current assets Total
-78.0 -4.5 -82.5
-38.0 -24.3 -62.3
Net Cash used in Invstg. Act. -26.4 CF from Fin. Activities Issue of equity shares Proceed from Long Borrowing Dividend & tax Others Net Cash flow from Fin. Act. 0.0 6.5 -3.8 -9.1 -6.5
Ratios
Particulars Per Share Data EPS (Rs.) CEPS (Rs.) Book Value (Rs.) Profitability Ratios (%) Operating margin Net profit margin ROCE ROE Other Ratios 21.3 8.9 26.2 20.8 19.2 4.0 8.6 1.9 1.7 0.4 5.1 19.6 9.2 24.2 21.5 15.4 3.3 8.0 1.6 1.4 0.4 6.6 23.3 11.9 25.1 24.0 20.2 4.8 11.1 2.6 2.4 0.4 8.4 24.7 13.9 28.0 26.4 14.2 3.7 8.5 2.1 2.0 0.3 9.2 17.7 42.5 84.9 22.0 46.9 102.3 16.8 31.7 70.1 23.9 40.8 90.8 FY12 FY13 FY14e FY15e
0.0 -0.7 -5.2 -2.2 -8.0 0.2 0.6 0.8
0.0 26.4 -5.2 2.0 23.2 0.4 0.8 1.3
0.0 16.0 -5.2 -12.0 -1.1 0.6 1.3 1.9
Inc. / (Dec.) in cash & Cash Eq. 0.1 Cash & Bank Bal. (Opening) Cash & Bank Bal. (Closing) 0.5 0.6
Du Pont Analysis - ROE

Particulars Tax Burden Interest Burden EBIT Margin Asset Turnover Ratio Financial Leverage Return On Equity (ROE) FY12 0.7 0.6 0.2 2.6 0.9 20.8 FY13 0.7 0.6 0.2 2.8 0.8 21.5 FY14e 0.8 0.7 0.2 2.2 0.9 24.0 FY15e 0.8 0.7 0.2 2.9 0.7 26.4
PER (x) Basic P/BV (x) EV/EBIDTA (x) EV/Sales (x) Mcap/Sales (x) Leverage Ratios (x) Debt/Equity Interest coverage
Source: SSL Research
November 25, 2013 9
Poly Medicure Ltd.

Name Alpesh Porwal Ankit Gor Sameer Sawant Designation SVP & Head (Retail) Research Analyst Trainee Associate
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10 November 25, 2013

Poly Medicure Ltd. - Initiating Coverage 25-11-2013

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Retail Research Initiating Coverage

Medical Devices & Disposables 25 November, 2013