A Mathematical Model For The Diffusion of Photovoltaics: Viviana Fanelli, Lucia Maddalena

Outline
A mathematical model for the diusion of photovoltaics

Viviana Fanelli, Lucia Maddalena
Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche Matematiche e Statistiche Universit` a di Foggia
Rome, June, 30th 2008 ISS on Risk Measurement and Control 2008
Viviana Fanelli, Lucia Maddalena A mathematical model for the diusion of photovoltaics
Outline
Outline
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
The Innovation Diusion Theory A model for the diusion of photovoltaics The stability of the equilibrium Conclusions Future Research References
Outline
Outline
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
Outline
Outline
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
Outline
Outline
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
Outline
Outline
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
Outline
Outline
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
Outline
Outline
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
The Innovation Diusion Theory
Part I The Innovation Diusion Theory
The diusion of an innovation is the process by which an innovation is communicated through certain channels over time among the members of a social system (Rogers, 2005)
The adoption process
The adoption process

Knowledge ; Persuasion; Decision or evaluation; Implementation; Conrmation or adoption. Communication channels
Historical distinction between technological break thoughts (innovations) and engineering renements (improvements) (De Solla Price, 1985)
Marketing problems
Marketing problems
1960: To develop marketing strategy in order to promote the adoption of a new product and penetrate the market.
Marketing problems
The Bass model, 1969
q dA(t ) = p (m A(t )) + A(t )(m A(t )) (1) dt m p is a parameter that takes into account as the new adopters joint the market as a result of external inuences: activities of rms in the market, advertising, attractiveness of the innovation, q refers to the magnitude of inuence of another single adopter
Time delay model with stage structure
Stage structure model
Time delay models with stage structure for describing the new technology adoption process
W. Wang, and P. Fergola, and S. Lombardo, and G. Mulone, 2006 Beretta (2001)
Time delay model with stage structure
Photovoltaics diusion
Photovoltaics technology: critical nature its diusion must be supported by the government policy of incentives The use of public subsides accelerate market penetration, but actually the costs of photovoltaics are still so high and the incentives are substantially very low The process of diusion is stopped at the rst stage and it cannot develop.
The model
Part II A model for the diusion of photovoltaics
The model
THE MODEL
Aim
We will propose a time delay model to simulate the adoption process when individuals in the social system are inuenced by external factors (government incentives and production costs) and internal factors (interpersonal communication). We will nd a nal level of adopters and we will carry out a qualitative analysis to study the stability of model equilibrium solution.
The model
THE MODEL
The model
The total population C consists of the adopters of the new technology, A, and of the potential adopters, P . i is a government incentive and c represents the production costs, e (i c ) = a is an external factor of inuence. is the average time for an individual to evaluate if to adopt or not the technology. Then, the knowledge and the awareness of technology occur at time t and in the interval [t , t ] the individual decides whether to adopt or not the technology.
The model
THE MODEL
The model
is the percentage of individuals that dont adopt the technology after the test period, e = k is the fraction of individuals that are still interested in the adoption after . is the valid contact rate of adopters with potential adopters, the discontinuance rate of adopters and a valid contact rate between the adopters at time t and those at time t .
The model
THE MODEL
The model
A(t ) + P (t ) = C dA(t ) = [a + A(t )] (C A(t ))k A(t )+ A(t )A(t ), dt > 0 (2)
The model
THE MODEL
The equilibrium
A =
(Ck ak )
(Ck ak )2 4( k )akC 2( k )
The model
THE MODEL
Sucient condition for a positive equilibrium
Theorem
If ( k ) < 0, that is if the growth factor due to the interpersonal communication inside the adopters class contributes in increasing the number of adopters less than the factor of imitation, then the time delay dierential equation admits an unique positive equilibrium.
The stability of the equilibrium
Stability
Stability
Let x (t ) = A(t ) A . Then dx (t ) = a0 x (t ) + b0 x (t ) + f (x (t ), x (t )) dt where a0 = ( A ), b0 = (kC ak 2kA + A ), f (x (t ), x (t )) = x (t )x (t ) kx 2 (t ).
Stability
Stability
Poincar` e-Liapunov Theorem The characteristic equation of the delayed dierential equation linear part is e + a0 e + b0 = 0 Hayes Theorem
Stability
Stability
Theorem
The equilibrium is asymptotically stable if
2 [(, , , a, k , C )] + 2( A )(, , , a, k , C ) p where (, , , a, k , C ) = (kC ak )2 4akC ( k ) and is the root ( of = ( A ) tan , such that , 0 < < 2 when A > (,,,a,k ,C ) < < when < A < . 2 2 2 <
2
Stability switch
Stability switch
We apply the methods proposed by Beretta (2006) and used by W.Wang, P. Fergola, S. Lombardo, and G. Mulone (2006) to demonstrate the time delay dierential equation admits stability switches.
Stability switch
Procedure
Consider the following rst order characteristic equation D (, ) = a( ) + b ( ) + c ( )e ( ) = 0, > 0 (3)
where a( ) = , b ( ) = a0 ( ) and c ( ) = b0 ( ) and the condition b ( ) + c ( ) = 0 is fulll because b0 ( ) = a0 ( ).
Stability switch
Procedure
If = i with > 0 is a root of our characteristic equation, we must have F (, ) := 2 + ( a0 ( ))2 ( b0 ( ))2 = 0, ( ) = which is true only if k (Ck ak )2 4( ak )akC + (Ck ak + ) >2 k b0 ( )2 a0 ( )2 > 0 (4)
Stability switch
Procedure
Consider sin( ) = and cos ( ) = where ( ) (0, 2 ) ( )a( ) = c ( ) b0 ( )2 a0 ( )2 b0 ( )
b ( ) a0 ( ) = c ( ) b0 ( )
Stability switch
Switches
Set n ( ) =
( ) + 2n ( )
for n {0, 1, ...}
Then STABILITY SWITCHES occur at the zeros of the following function Sn ( ) = n ( ), n {0, 1, ...}.
(5)
Since it is dicult to obtain the zeros of Sn ( ) analytically, we x the parameters and use numerical calculations. If n = 0, C = 20, = 0.2, = 0.1, a = 0.1, k = e 0.2 and = 0.05, then = 1.32.
Conclusions
Part IV Conclusions
Conclusions
Conclusions
Conclusions I
Conclusions We have proposed a mathematical model with stage structure to simulate adoption processes. The model includes the awareness stage, the evaluation stage and the decision-making stage. We have found the nal level of adopters for certain parameters and, from studying the local stability of the equilibrium, we have found that the nal level of adopters is unchanged under small perturbations (if the evaluation delay is small). The model can be used to predict the number of adopters for certain parameters and economic and nancial estimations about market prot may be made if the equilibrium is stable.
Conclusions
Conclusions
Conclusions I
Conclusions We have shown that the model admits stability switches. This means the number of adopters could uctuate in time. (This is an eective characteristic of the new technology markets and, in particular, of the photovoltaics market).
Future Research
Part V Future Research
Future Research
Future Research
Future Research I
First The existence of stability switches suggests to investigate the existence of periodic solutions and their stability. Second Since there exist stochastic factors in the environment as well as in the interior system and the action of these factors can cause a random adoption pattern of the new technology, we wish to investigate the eect of stochastic perturbations for the model.
References
References I
F.M. Bass. A new product growth model for consumer durables. Management Sci., 15:215227, January 1969. R. Bellman and K.L. Cooke. Dierential-dierence equations. Academic Press, New York, 1963. E. Beretta and Y. Kuang. Geometric stability switch criteria in delay dierential system with delay-dependent parameters. SIAM J. Math.Anal., 33:11441165, 2001.
References
References II
D. de Solla Price. The science/technology relationship, the craft of experimental science, and policy for the improvement of high technology innovation. Research Policy, 13:320, 1984. J.K. Hale and S.M.V. Lunel. Introduction to Functional Dierential Equations. Springer-Verlag, New York, 1993. V. Mahajan, E. Muller, and F.M. Bass. New-Product Diusion Models. in Eliashberg, J, Lilien, G.L (Eds),Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science, Elsevier Science Publishers, New York, NY, 1993.
Viviana Fanelli, Lucia Maddalena A mathematical model for the diusion of photovoltaics Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche Matematiche e Statistiche Universit` a di Foggia
References
References III
E.M. Rogers. Diusion of Innovations. The Free Press, New York, 4th edition, 1995. W. Wang, P. Fergola, S. Lombardo, and G. Mulone. Mathematical models of innovation diusion with stage structure. Applied Mathematical Modelling, 30:129146, 2006.

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Outline

A mathematical model for the diusion of photovoltaics

Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche Matematiche e Statistiche Universit` a di Foggia

Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche Matematiche e Statistiche Universit` a di Foggia

Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche Matematiche e Statistiche Universit` a di Foggia

Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche Matematiche e Statistiche Universit` a di Foggia

Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche Matematiche e Statistiche Universit` a di Foggia

Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche Matematiche e Statistiche Universit` a di Foggia

Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche Matematiche e Statistiche Universit` a di Foggia

Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche Matematiche e Statistiche Universit` a di Foggia

The Innovation Diusion Theory

Part I The Innovation Diusion Theory

Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche Matematiche e Statistiche Universit` a di Foggia

The Innovation Diusion Theory

Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche Matematiche e Statistiche Universit` a di Foggia

The Innovation Diusion Theory

The adoption process

The adoption process

Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche Matematiche e Statistiche Universit` a di Foggia

The Innovation Diusion Theory

Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche Matematiche e Statistiche Universit` a di Foggia

The Innovation Diusion Theory

The Bass model, 1969

Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche Matematiche e Statistiche Universit` a di Foggia

The Innovation Diusion Theory

Time delay model with stage structure

Stage structure model

Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche Matematiche e Statistiche Universit` a di Foggia

The Innovation Diusion Theory

Time delay model with stage structure

Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche Matematiche e Statistiche Universit` a di Foggia

Part II A model for the diusion of photovoltaics

Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche Matematiche e Statistiche Universit` a di Foggia

Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche Matematiche e Statistiche Universit` a di Foggia

Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche Matematiche e Statistiche Universit` a di Foggia

Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche Matematiche e Statistiche Universit` a di Foggia

Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche Matematiche e Statistiche Universit` a di Foggia

Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche Matematiche e Statistiche Universit` a di Foggia

Sucient condition for a positive equilibrium

Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche Matematiche e Statistiche Universit` a di Foggia

The stability of the equilibrium

Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche Matematiche e Statistiche Universit` a di Foggia

The stability of the equilibrium

Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche Matematiche e Statistiche Universit` a di Foggia

The stability of the equilibrium

Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche Matematiche e Statistiche Universit` a di Foggia

The stability of the equilibrium

Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche Matematiche e Statistiche Universit` a di Foggia

The stability of the equilibrium

Consider the following rst order characteristic equation D (, ) = a( ) + b ( ) + c ( )e ( ) = 0, > 0 (3)

where a( ) = , b ( ) = a0 ( ) and c ( ) = b0 ( ) and the condition b ( ) + c ( ) = 0 is fulll because b0 ( ) = a0 ( ).

Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche Matematiche e Statistiche Universit` a di Foggia

The stability of the equilibrium

Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche Matematiche e Statistiche Universit` a di Foggia

The stability of the equilibrium

Consider sin( ) = and cos ( ) = where ( ) (0, 2 ) ( )a( ) = c ( ) b0 ( )2 a0 ( )2 b0 ( )

Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche Matematiche e Statistiche Universit` a di Foggia

The stability of the equilibrium

for n {0, 1, ...}

Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche Matematiche e Statistiche Universit` a di Foggia

Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche Matematiche e Statistiche Universit` a di Foggia

Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche Matematiche e Statistiche Universit` a di Foggia

Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche Matematiche e Statistiche Universit` a di Foggia