Tuesday, September 22, 2009 37 Failed Technology Predictions from the Past Throughout history man has been

making predictions of the future. With the advent of technology, the predictions moved away from religious topics to scientific and technological. nfortunately for the speakers !and most of them were well" respected and widely"known public features#, a big chunk of these failed predictions have been recorded for all future generations to laugh at. $ctually, no one can be right all the time, so the failed predictions are not to be used to accuse the authors in lack of competency.

%ollowing is a list of &' feature predictions which never came true.

(. )igh speed *ails +r. +ionysus ,arder !('9&"(-.9# predicted that /*ail travel at high speed is not possible because passengers, unable to breathe, would die of asphy0ia1. +r. +ionysus was a professor of 2atural 3hilosophy and $stronomy at 4ollege ,ondon. niversity

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2. 5aking of a Ship against Wind When 2apoleon 6onaparte was told of *obert %ulton7s steamboat in (-00, his statement was /)ow, sir, would you make a ship sail against the wind and currents by lighting a bonfire under her deck8 9 pray you, e0cuse me, 9 have not the time to listen to such nonsense.1

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&. *ailroads is a bad system 5artin :an 6uren, ;overnor of 2ew <ork, in (-&0 wrote to the president that /+ear 5r. 3resident= The canal system of this country is being threatened by a new form of transportation known as >railroads7 ? $s you may well know, 5r. 3resident, >railroad7 carriages are pulled at the enormous speed of (. miles per hour by >engines7 which, in addition to endangering life and limb of passengers, roar and snort their way through the countryside, setting fire to crops, scaring the livestock and frightening women and children. The $lmighty certainly never intended that people should travel at such breakneck speed1.

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@. Telephone has Shortcomings 9t was printed in a memo at Western nion in (-'- !or may be (-'A# that

/This >telephone7 has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us1.

.. Blectric ,ight will close as well C0ford professor Brasmus Wilson predicted that /When the 3aris B0hibition Dof (-'-E closes, electric light will close with it and no more will be heard of it1. Today, we can7t e0pect life without electricity.

A. 6ritish 3ost don7t 2eed Telephone 9t seems 6ritish were not believing on fast communications. 9n (-'-, 6ritish 3ost Cffice gave a statement that /The $mericans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys1. )ow backward thought they were having.

'. F"rays will be nothing but a )oa0 9n (--&, the president of *oyal Society 5r ,ord Gevin stated that /F"rays will prove to be a hoa01.

-. $lternating 4urrent H $ waste of time Thomas Bdison was an $merican inventor. 9n (--9 he commented that /%ooling around with alternating current is Iust a waste of time. 2obody will use it, everJ. Bdison was fond of passing ridiculous arguments against his competitor ;eorge Westinghouse for $4 power.

9. 9mpossible %light of 5achines )eavier than $ir /%light by machines heavier than air is unpractical and insignificant, if not utterly impossible.1 This was predicted by Simon 2ewcomb. The prediction turned false when The Wright 6rothers flew at Gitty )awk (- months later.

(0. :ery 3oor Bnergy by an $tom Brnest *utherford predicted that JThe energy produced by the breaking down of the atom is a very poor kind of thingJ. )e gave his statement Iust after splitting the atom for the first time. )e further stated that J$nyone who e0pects a source of power from the transformation of these atoms is talking moonshine.1

((. Submarine will do nothing ); Wells was a 6ritish novelist. 9n (90(, he stated that

/9 must confess that my imagination refuses to see any sort of submarine doing anything but suffocating its crew and floundering at sea1. Wish he was still alive to see how submarines are playing a role in defense of a country.

(2. $utomobile will never replace )orse We can see how automobile has replaced horses. 6ut in (90&, the president of 5ichigan Savings 6ank advised )enry %ord7s lawyer not to invest in %ord 5otor 4o. $ccording to him, /The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty H a fad1. This means he was not trusting on mechanical engineering at all.

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(&. Transmitting voice across the $tlantic 9n (9(&, ,ee +e%orest sold the stock of his *adio Telephone 4ompany by making a prediction that /9t would be possible to transmit the human voice across the $tlantic before many yearsJ.

(@. 3eople want to see flesh and blood

9n (9(A, 4harlie 4haplin, the actor, producer, director and studio founder, stated that /The cinema is little more than a fad. 9t7s canned drama. What audiences really want to see is flesh and blood on the stage1. 9t has been proved that audience is more interested towards love stories

(.. 4avalry will never be replaced by 9ron 4oaches 9n (9(A, $ide"de"camp passed his comment to %ield 5arshal )aig at the tank demonstration that /The idea that cavalry will be replaced by these iron coaches is absurd. 9t is little short of treasonousJ.

(A. Wireless 5usic bo0 has no :alue When $ssociates of +avid Sarnoff was asked to invest in the radio in (92(, he stated that /The wireless music bo0 has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to no one in particular81. 9n modern era, people love going wireless.

('. 3roIecting 5an in ;ravitational %ield 9n (92A, ,ee +e%orest again predicted that /To place a man in a multi"stage rocket and proIect him into the controlling gravitational field of the moon where the passengers can make scientific observations, perhaps land alive, and then return to earth H all that constitutes a wild dream worthy of Kules :erne. 9 am bold enough to say that such a man"made voyage will never occur regardless of all future advances1. The thing to remember is that ,ee +e%orest was inventor of the vacuum tube as well.

(-. 6igger 3lane8

/There will never be a bigger plane built1. That was confidently said by a 6oeing engineer, after the first flight of the 2@', a twin engine plane that holds ten people. We can see $irbus $&-0 in action.

(9. 2uclear Bnergy will not be Cbtainable 9n (9&2, $lbert Binstein stated that /There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable. 9t would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will1.

20. *ocket will never leave Barth7s atmosphere 9n (9&A, 2ew <ork Times predicted that /$ rocket will never be able to leave the Barth7s atmosphere.1

2(. *ockets manufacturing is 9mpossible. J*ockets are too far"fetched to be considered.J "" Bditor of Scientific $merican, in a letter to *obert ;oddard about ;oddardLs idea of a rocket"accelerated airplane bomb, (9@0 !;erman :2 missiles came down on ,ondon & years later#.

22. The bomb will never go off 9n (9@., $dmiral William +. ,eahy, 4hief of Staff to the 4ommander in 4hief of the $rmy and 2avy during World War 99, advised 3resident Truman on the atomic bomb that /This is the biggest fool thing we have ever done. The bomb will never go off, and 9 speak as an e0pert in e0plosives.1

2&. Television won7t capture any 5arket 9n (9@A, +arryl Manuck predicted that /Television won7t be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first si0 months. 3eople will soon get tired of staring at a plywood bo0 every night1.

+arryl was a movie producer of 20th 4entury %o0.

2@. Television is a %lash 5ary Somerville, the pioneer of radio educational broadcasts stated that /Television won7t last. 9t7s a flash in the panJ. )e passed his statement in (9@- after the introduction of Television in market.

2.. 5arket for 4opying 5achines 965 passed a statement to the eventual founders of Fero0 that /The world potential market for copying machines is .000 at most.1 %urthermore, saying that Jthe photocopier had no market large enough to Iustify productionJ. The statement was passed in (9.9.

2A. 4ommunication Space Satellites T. 4raven, %44 4ommissioner in (9A( stated that /There is practically no chance communications space satellites will be used to provide better telephone, telegraph, television, or radio service inside the nited States.1

2'. 4omputers in )ome This was made by Gen Clson, the president, chairman and founder of +igital BNuipment 4orporation !+B4#. 9n (9'', he passed a statement against computers which was that /There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.1 6eing a founder of +B4, a maker of big business mainframe computers, he was still stating against computers which was really hilarious.

2-. 5usic *ecording will kill 5usic 9n (9-0, a campaign was started by 639 claiming that people recording music off the radio onto cassette would destroy the music industry. The slogan for the campaign was set as /)ome Taping 9s Gilling 5usic1.

29. )eavier than $ir %lying 5achines /)eavier"than"air flying machines are impossible1O in (-9. ,ord Gelvin, 6ritish mathematician and physicist, president of the 6ritish *oyal Society gave his statement.

&0. 2uclear"powered :acuum 4leaners $nother interesting prediction made by $le0 ,ewis, president of vacuum cleaner company H ,ewis 4orporation, was /2uclear"powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality in (0 years1.

&(. &2"bit Cperating System $nother hilarious prediction was made by 6ill ;ates, the 4BC of 5icrosoft corporation, that /We will never make a &2 bit operating system1. The prediction turned false when Windows 9- was released by 5icrosoft.

&2. 5emory demand is ,imited JA@0G ought to be enough for anybody.J or J2o one will need more than A&' kilobytes of memory for a personal computer.J are two variants of the same Nuote, often misattributed to 6ill ;ates in (9-(. ;ates has repeatedly denied ever saying this, and he points out that it has never been attributed to him with a proper source. 9n fact, the memory limitation was due to the hardware architecture of the 965 34.

&&. 2o 5ilitary :alue of

sing $irplanes

J$irplanes are interesting toys but of no military value.J "" 5arechal %erdinand %och, 3rofessor of Strategy, Bcole Superieure de ;uerre, (90@.

&@. $utomobile +evelopment JThat the automobile has practically reached the limit of its development is suggested by the fact that during the past year no improvements of a radical nature have been introduced.J "" Scientific $merican, Kan. 2 edition, (909.

&.. Telephone is )oa0 J$ man has been arrested in 2ew <ork for attempting to e0tort funds from ignorant and superstitious people by e0hibiting a device which he says will convey the human voice any distance over metallic wires so that it will be heard by the listener at the other end. )e calls this instrument a telephone. Well"informed people know that it is impossible to transmit the human voice over wires.J "" 2ews item in a 2ew <ork newspaper, (-A-.

&A. B"commerce J*emote shopping, while entirely feasible, will flop " because women like to get out of the house, like to handle merchandise, like to be able to change their minds.J "" T95B, (9AA, in one sentence writing off e"commerce long before anyone had ever heard of it.

&'. Space Cperations

/6y the year 2000 we will undoubtedly have a siPable operation on the 5oon, we will have achieved a manned 5ars landing, and it7s entirely possible we will have flown with men to the outer planets.1 This is prediction of Wernher von 6raun in (9A9, who was was a ;erman $merican rocket physicist and astronautics engineer, becoming one of the leading figures in the development of rocket technology in ;ermany and the nited States.

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