Thayer Consultancy

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Brief Thailand: The End Game New Elections or a Military Coup? Carlyle A. Thayer December 6, 2013

[client name deleted] 1) The Thai armed forces have already said they are acting neutrally but will side by the people if the government uses force. What is your assessment? Do you think a military coup in Thailand is a possibility considering the current political situation? ANSWER: As the events of 2006 illustrate, one can never rule out the possibility of a military coup in Thailand. This time the military is playing a behind the scenes role in getting the opposing parties to speak to each other and to lower tensions. It is clear that the military will not be provoked by the opposition into intervening. But in the event tensions escalate and serious violence breaks out threatening political stability, then the military is likely to intervene. 2) Dont the protestors want to provoke a military coup? In case of a military coup then what? Are the opposition demands just? Will a military coup solve Thailands political crisis? ANSWER: The protesters are demanding an end to the influence of Thaksin's network on the current government, a halt to populist policies, and the formation of a nominated people's council and a royally appointed prime minister. They have turned their back on the electoral process because they know any election will only return the "red shirts back to power. They have made points with respect to an amnesty for Thaksin that have been taken on board. Essentially, Suthep is bent on continuing confrontation. Neither the opposition stance or a military coup will solve Thailands current political crisis. The oppositions tactics undermine the democratic process. 3) Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, rejecting the demand for her resignation, has said she wants to resolve the issue peacefully. But protesters are adamant they want her to step down. What's her next step, considering she wants peace restored? ANSWER: Prime Minister Yingluck has shown restraint. The police have pulled back and allowed the protesters to occupy government buildings. She and her supporters appear to be playing a waiting game to see if the opposition can sustain its rage. Any violence or killings by the police would only spur the opposition to adopt even more extreme measures. PM Yingluck is likely to seek to take the high moral road and offer to meet with Suthep and other opposition leaders to lower tensions. She

2 appears to be riding out the storm. Yingluck also has the option (a) stepping aside or (b) triggering new elections. 3) Your views on an early election and "returning the power to the people"? ANSWER: Electoral trends since 2001 are clear, the Thaksin network has the ability to mobilise a decisive majority in national elections. "The people" support the coalition led by Yingluck and she (or someone similar) will be re-elected. The coalition led by Suthep is sizeable but it is a minority. National elections, however, will not end the polarisation of Thai society.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Thailand: The End Game New Elections or a Military Coup?, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, December 6, 2013. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key. Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.