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A NA LY S I S O F S M E R I S K
P RO F IL E
Name: R. Srikanth
Batch: 2008-10
Date: 17/08/2009
T A PAI MANAGEMENT INSTITUTE,
MA N IPA L, KA R N ATA KA- 57 6 10 4
MIP PHASE II REPORT
A NA LY S I S O F S M E R I S K
P RO F IL E
Name: R. Srikanth
Batch: 2008-10
Date: 17/08/2009
CERTIFICATE
This is to certify that the project report titled Analysis of SME risk
profile – Axis bank, Coimbatore is a bonafide work carried out by R.
Srikanth under my guidance for partial fulfillment of Post Graduate
Diploma in Management.
Signature
The primary focus of the project was to measure the concentration risk
in lending to various industries and then recommend strategies to
minimize the concentration risk. Evaluation of this concentration risk was
also extended to locations, nature of organizations and loan schemes.
Prevalence of the textile industry within the scope of this SME centre
necessitated a special focus on its subsectors. An analysis of the
customers under high risk category and the ones under watch list/exit list
gave insights on the industries to be focussed on for lending and the ones
to be avoided.
1. Introduction............................................................................................................................4
4. Methodology .......................................................................................................................13
6. Risk analysis.........................................................................................................................33
8. Market expansion.................................................................................................................51
Limitations ..............................................................................................................................56
Conclusion ...............................................................................................................................58
References................................................................................................................................59
A N A LY S I S O F S M E R I S K P R O F I L E
1. INTRODUCTION
Axis Bank is one of the fastest growing banks in the country and has an
extremely competitive and profitable banking franchise evidenced by:
Comprehensive portfolio of banking services including Corporate Credit,
Retail Banking, Business Banking, Capital Markets, Treasury and
International Banking. Axis Bank is committed to adopting the best
industry practices internationally in order to achieve excellence. The Bank
today is capitalized1 to the extent of Rs. 359.0 crores with the public
holding (other than promoters) at 57.60%. Axis Bank Ltd. has been
promoted by UTI, one of the largest financial institutions in the country.
The Bank was set up with a capital of Rs. 115 crore, with UTI contributing
Rs. 100 crore, LIC - Rs. 7.5 crore and GIC and its four subsidiaries
contributing Rs. 1.5 crore each.
1
www.axisbank.com
2
The name EMV comes from the initial letters of Europay, MasterCard and VISA
the three companies which originally cooperated to develop the standard.
1.3 SME:
SME is one of the lines of business under Credit function. In 2008-09,
based on the recommendations of Mckinsey & Company, Agri Business
was hived off from Advances Cells and SME Centres were entrusted with
handling SME business only3. SME accounts are classified as those with a
turnover upto Rs.125 crores or those with aggregate credit exposure with
the bank upto Rs. 25 crores. An account should satisfy both the conditions
in order to be classified as an SME account. SME segment would now
comprise of MSME (as per RBI definition) and other borrowers, satisfying
both the conditions of turnover and exposure. Both MSME and other
borrowers will have schematic and non-schematic sub-groups.
There are three SME centers in Tamil Nadu – Chennai, Madurai and
Coimbatore. The SME cell at Coimbatore caters to Erode, Salem, Karur,
Tirupur, Pollachi and Nilgiris apart from Coimbatore district. Major type of
SMEs located in Coimbatore district include Textile Mills, Power looms,
Handlooms, Hosiery Units, Motor, Pumps and Foundry Units, Wet grinder
and accessories Units, Coir Industries, Textile/Automobile Machinery /
Engineering Industries4.
Various other factors enter into this equation in real world applications,
where loans are not evenly distributed or are heavily concentrated in
4
http://www.diccoimbatore.com/Nutshell.html
5
www.wikipedia.org
6
Corporate Credit policy of Axis bank 2009-10
1.1 To examine the industry wise concentration risk for the overall SME
centre and the major locations under the purview of the centre
7
Watch list/exit list is released by the Corporate Credit office of Axis bank. This
contains the list of customers to be closely monitored in the current year.
1.4 To examine credit allocation for various loan schemes and type of
organizations
The concentration risk has been measured on the basis of sanction limit
and not on the basis of outstanding amount with the customers. Industries
with low concentration risk (less than 1%) have been grouped into the
‘others’ category. For each location, while measuring the concentration
risk industry wise, only the following places were considered: Coimbatore,
Salem, Erode, Karur and Tirupur because of the sizeable exposure that
Axis bank has in these places. The data from NABARD indicates the credit
potential in the Coimbatore district, but there is no information on how
much of the credit needs can actually be met.
8
Prevalence of textile industries in Coimbatore led to the choice of three textile
industries for this study.
9
Used in MS Excel, a PivotTable report is an interactive table that you can use to
quickly summarize large amounts of data.
10
NABARD releases an annual document called Potential Linked Credit Plan
which indicates the credit potential available at a location
ENGINEERING
2%
Others
2% 12%
3%
3% TEXTILES:
4% COTTON
44%
4%
4%
FOOD EDUCATION &
PROCESSING TRAINING
5% IRON & STEEL 7%
REAL ESTATE 5%
5%
AUTO ANCILLARIES
EDIBLE OILS
TRADE
The above chart depicts the industry wise concentration risk for SME
Centre, Coimbatore. The various concentration risks in this SME centre are
measured with data upto 31st March 2009 for Non Schematic enterprises
only. We observe that the textile industry has a concentration risk of 45%.
This can result in significant losses for the bank, because this exposure
would be affected by changes in similar risk factors and any adverse
movement in underlying factors would impact this industry – thereby
enhancing the possibility of NPAs for the centre. Even though the credit
portfolio at the SME centre is healthy, any adverse situation can increase
the % NPAs in the centre.
TEXTILES: COTTON
, 28% TRADE
Others
FOOD PROCESSING
12%
REAL ESTATE
2%
TEXTILES: COTTON
33%
PETROCHEMICAL &
LOGISTICS
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
0.4%
2%
TEXTILES: OTHER
6% AUTO ANCILLARIES
EDUCATION & TRAINING 2%
16%
OTHERS
1%
TRADE
1%
POWER
GENERATION &
DISTRIBUTION
3%
CHEMICAL &
CHEMICAL
PRODUCTS
TEXTILES: 3%
TEXTILES: OTHER
COTTON
1%
93%
MINING AND
OTHERS MINING
0.5% PRODUCTS
0.5%
Coimbatore:
Axis bank SME centre has a balanced portfolio in Coimbatore district with
Textiles: Cotton having a concentration risk of 27% (by sanction limit).
Compared to the other major locations, the default risk of textile
industries is lower in Coimbatore district. The other industries with major
exposures are Iron & steel (12%) and Real estate (11%). On the other side,
Trade has the lowest concentration risk. With the increase in disposable
incomes across India, the lending to this sector can be enhanced. Apart
from this, lending to enterprises in the services sector (like established
hospitals) can be looked at.
Salem:
Erode:
Erode has the same percentage exposure as Salem towards the textile
industry. But a high exposure towards edible oils (26%) is a cause for
concern. Towards the lower side, we observe lower exposure towards Real
estate (2%), but lending to this sector should be done cautiously,
considering the volatility factor. In Erode also, lending towards education
& training, hospitals can be focused on.
Karur:
Tirupur:
Textile industry:
PREPARATION AND
SPINNING OF COTTON MFR. OF MADE-UP OTHER WHOLESALE (INCL. SPECIALIZED
TEXTILE ARTICLES & WHOLE
, 13.3%
TARPA, 8.2%
MFR. OF KNITTED AND CROCHETED FABRICS
MFR. OF
MFR. OF WEARING THREADS, NETS, ROPES, TAPES,NEWA
APPARELS, READY MADE
GAR, 19.8% 0.4% 0.3% MFR. OF MACHINERY FOR TEXTILE,APPAREL
0.5% 0.2% &
0.5% 0.2%
DRESSING AND DYEING OF FUR,MFR. OF
0.1% ARTIC
3.6% 0.8%
Non textile in dustries, 55.1% 0.7% TEXTILES, CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR & OTH
HOUS
MFR. OF KNITTED
PREPARATION AND AND CROCHETED
SPINNING OF FABRICS
MFR. OF WEARING COTTON 0.3%
APPARELS, READY 12% MFR. OF THREADS,
MADE GAR NETS, ROPES,
14% COTTON TAPES,NEWA
0.4% 0.2%
MFR. OF MADE-UP
TEXTILE ARTICLES
Other & TARPA
2% 0.2%
Non textile
(Industries industries
other than 73%
textiles) MFR. OF
MACHINERY FOR
TEXTILE,APPAREL &
1.2%
MFR. OF MADE-UP
TEXTILE ARTICLES
& TARPA
OTHER 5%
WHOLESALE (INCL.
SPECIALIZED
WHOLE
10%
PREPARATION AND
SPINNING OF
COTTON Non textile
18%
(Industries
industries
67%
other than
textiles)
PREPARATION AND
SPINNING OF COTTON
24.4%
(Industries
other than
textiles)
DRESSING AND
MFR. OF MADE-UP
DYEING OF
TEXTILE ARTICLES &
FUR,MFR. OF ARTIC
TARPA (Industries
0.3%
68.9% other than
textiles)
0.8%
PREPARATION MFR. OF
AND SPINNING OF THREADS, NETS,
COTTON ROPES,
18.2% DRESSING AND DYEING OF FUR,MFR. OF
TAPES,NEWA
MFR. OF ARTIC
2.1%
WEARING
APPARELS, EMBROIDERY WORK, MAKING OF LACES AND
0.6% FRI
READY MADE 1.0%
GAR
0.3% TEXTILES, CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR & OTH
67.9%
HOUS
3.9% 0.2%
WHOLESALE OF OTH INTERMEDIATE
PRODUCTS,
1.9%
GEN. OF ELECTRICITY: HYDRO, COAL, OIL, A
Non textile
(Industries
industries
other than
textiles) 8.0%
Coimbatore:
Salem:
Erode:
Karur:
Tirupur:
Similar to Karur, Tirupur also has very high exposure (almost 68%)
towards Apparels. The recessionary trends discussed above also apply to
Tirupur. On the other hand, exposure towards non-textile industries is
lowest in Tirupur (8%), followed by Karur (30%).
Location wise:
Others
SALEM 8%
7%
COIMBATORE
39%
TIRUPUR
21%
KARUR
ERODE
11%
14%
Misc.
Export finance 0.3%
11%
Working capital
47% Term loan
42%
More than the working capital, the concentration risk towards term loan
(42%) is a cause of concern, considering the nature of the loan scheme. If
this exposure towards term loan is reduced to 30%, then the credit
portfolio would be having a healthy outlook. Even though the exposure
towards working capital is less risky, the SME centre can focus more on
export finance so that there is sufficient diversification to mitigate the
Sole Proprietorship
Public Ltd 11%
Com panies
7% Trust-Educational
Institutions
4%
OTHERS
4%
Private Ltd Cos
51%
Partnership Firm
23%
In the above chart, more than the private limited companies, the causes
of concern are sole proprietorship and partnership firm. This is because of
the key man risk factor. – the dependence of an enterprise on a single
person for its day-to-day working and strategic planning. Since sufficient
exposure is present towards private limited companies (51%), the focus
can be on public limited companies and trusts which do not have the
constraint of key man risk and are therefore much safer.
Other priority
sector
18% Non farm sector
65%
In the above chart, agricultural and related industries do not come under
the purview of the SME centre. Included under non farm sector are: Food
based; beverages; tobacco and tobacco based; cotton textile based; wool,
silk and synthetic fibre textiles; jute, hemp and mesta textiles; Hosiery
and garments; Wood and wooden products; Paper and paper products;
To start with, in each of the sectors that Axis bank has currently lent, the
overall estimated credit potential for Coimbatore district is shown in the
table below:
With respect to internal credit rating, Axis bank presently follows eight
grade (SME 1 to SME 8) rating symbol system. While SME 1 is considered
as highly safe, SME 8 is extremely risk prone. In this analysis, enterprises
with rating only SME 5 and below (which come under the high-risk
category) have been included. The difference with the earlier analysis is
that the former included all enterprises without any reference to internal
rating. About 4.1% (Rs. 35.6 crores) of the total fund based credit
exposure (Rs. 860 crores) fall under this category. Similar to the previous
section, this study was also done industry wise, nature of company wise,
loan scheme wise and location wise.
Under the high-risk category (with fund based sanction limit = Rs.35.6
crores), 71% of the exposure is towards textile industry, definitely not a
PRIVATE LTD
COMPANIES
88%
Export finance
32%
Working capital
46%
Term loan
22%
Again, the low proportion of term loans under high risk category is a
healthy sign. The SME centre should focus on sustaining this proportion of
Out of the total 255 customers, the Zonal Risk committee placed 40
under watch list/exit list. About 12.1% (Rs. 104 crores) of the sanction
limit came under this category. This study is separate from the analysis
above based on internal credit rating. To identify the priority areas for
monitoring risk of default, a Pareto analysis was also done among
industries, enterprises etc.
Industry wise:
…
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Having a look at the chart, we can conclude that Karur remains the area of
prime focus, with 26% of the sanction limit given to enterprises at Karur
under watch list. Even the figure of 15% within Coimbatore is a cause of
concern considering the larger proportion of sanction limit lent to
enterprises in that district.
Enterprise wise
80%
68%
70%
cumulative
60%
50%
20%
13.11%
9.58% 8.40%
10% 6.73% 5.89% 5.34% 5.20% 5.05% 4.77%
4.27%
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The enterprise wise contribution of the sanction limit under watch list is
shown for the top 10 firms in the chart above. We observe that about 68%
of the sanction limit under watch list is contributed by just these 10 firms
(out of the 40 firms in watch list). This is an example of how individual
firms can even make a significant impact on the SME centre’s credit
portfolio.
11
International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards, A
Revised framework (June 2006)
570000
Textile B SME 6 13% 150% 8550000 20%
0
Iron & 415000
C SME 2 10% 20% 830000 2%
steel 0
Auto
120000
ancillari D SME 4 3% 50% 600000 1%
0
es
425500 2573000
00 0
The increase/decrease in sanction limits (after adjustment) for each
enterprise, on summing up would give rise to the modified sanction limit
for each industry as a whole. From the modified sanction limit, the
percentage exposure to each industry can be calculated (which is nothing
but the concentration risk). The summary of the calculations are shown in
the table below:
Table 5: Comparison of normal and adjusted sanction limits
Normal Adjuste
Sanctio d Differenc
Industry (1)
n limit Sanction e (3)-(2)
(2) Limit (3)
GEMS & JEWELLERY 0.66% 0.75% 0.09%
INFRASTRUCTURE CONSTRUCTION: ROADS 1.65% 1.57% -0.09%
INFRASTRUCTURE CONSTRUCTION: OTHERS 3.50% 3.32% -0.18%
POWER GENERATION & DISTRIBUTION 0.63% 0.96% 0.34%
ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 2.82% 3.66% 0.84%
EDIBLE OILS 3.68% 3.59% -0.09%
FOOD PROCESSING 4.05% 4.67% 0.62%
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES 0.43% 0.41% -0.02%
REAL ESTATE 4.32% 4.86% 0.54%
IRON & STEEL 4.43% 5.15% 0.73%
LOGISTICS 0.06% 0.06% 0.00%
OTHER METAL & METAL PRODUCTS 1.23% 1.16% -0.06%
PETROCHEMICAL & PETROLEUM PRODUCTS 0.34% 0.45% 0.11%
AUTO ANCILLARIES 3.72% 3.63% -0.09%
TEXTILES: COTTON 46.33% 44.89% -1.44%
TEXTILES: OTHER 1.11% 1.17% 0.06%
TRADE 2.93% 2.88% -0.05%
EDUCATION & TRAINING 6.36% 6.92% 0.56%
PAPER & PAPER PRODUCTS 0.63% 0.60% -0.03%
LEATHER & LEATHER PRODUCTS 0.37% 0.59% 0.22%
MINING AND MINING PRODUCTS 0.21% 0.20% -0.01%
• Line of activity
• Change in ratings
o Demand side
5. Specific factors:
Considering all the above observations, we can conclude that the much
talked about downturn did have an impact on the performance of
enterprises. Power shortage is one important factor that is not related to
the downturn, but still has affected the turnover and profit margins of
companies.
• CAGR
• Sectoral p/e
S.No 1 2 3 4 5
Building
Gems & Electronic
Industry Plastics materials Paper
Jewellery goods
(Construction)
Percentage exposure for
Coimbatore centre 0.75% 2.48% 4.88% 0.10% 0.60%
(Concentration risk)
Green (SME 1 to
100% 77% 100% 0% 75%
SME 3 S0)
Internal
Orange (SME 4) 0% 23% 0% 100% 25%
rating
Red (SME 5 to
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SME7)
Potential Increase
(decrease) in QoQ: (2-4%) 11.50% 37-40% 41% (LCD TV) 6.50%
sales %
Potential Increase
profit margins
(decrease) in PAT 4.30% 14-17% (PBDIT)
under pressure
%
Growth
potential Short term
sluggish good positive positive sluggish
outlook
Sectoral p/e -
present (previous 11.9 (10.7) - - - 15.9 (13.3)
in bracket)
Plastics are
largely used in
Going through
agriculture and Infrastructure
a rough patch Increased
construction spending by moderate
because of average
Remarks sectors which stable growth, but less
poor demand disposable
are expected to government to volatility
from US - the income in India
clock decent aid growth
largest market
growth in 2009-
10
Green (SME 1 to
43% 50% 88% 100% 100%
SME 3 S0)
Internal
Orange (SME 4) 29% 38% 12% 0% 0%
rating
Red (SME 5 to
29% 12% 0% 0% 0%
SME7)
Potential Increase
(decrease) in sales YoY: 9.6% 17% 20% 23-27% 8.60%
%
Potential Increase
QoQ: 4-7% 7.5-10% 43% (PBDIT)
(decrease) in PAT %
Growth
potential Short term outlook slow growth healthy Slow growth Healthy sluggish
Sectoral p/e -
present (previous in - 9.4 (7.7) 87.3 - 12.3 (9.7)
bracket)
Short term
Coupled with Increased
opportunity for
good growth average
unorganised Huge scope for
Coupled with expected for disposable
retail as penetration of
Remarks good growth for automobiles income in India
organised retail healthcare
automobiles and consumer will lead to
will grow slowly services
durables growth in the
in the next 2
industries long term
years.
CRISIL CRISIL
Source IAS (CMIE) IAS (CMIE) IAS (CMIE)
Research Research
LIMITATIONS
Concentration risk:
• NABARD’s potential credit does not take into account the factor of
concentration risk towards a particular industry.
Risk analysis:
• Under watch list/exit list, only enterprises that have been associated
with SME centre for the past two years have been included. This has
been done because of the inherent constraint in the rating system
which gives lower ratings to newly associated enterprises (lack of
adequate data).
Analysis of migration:
• This analysis has been done for a sample only. More specific factors
may have had an effect on the performance of enterprises not
included in the present sample.
• Only ten industries have been included in this study for market
expansion. Other industries may exist which have growth
potential.
CONCLUSION
The textile industry with a concentration risk of 45% (overall SME centre)
may result in significant loss for the bank under adverse economic
conditions. Under textile industry, apparels/garments have the highest
concentration risk followed by Cotton spinning. Coimbatore has the
highest concentration risk location wise, followed by Tirupur. Under loan
schemes, 42% towards the term loan poses the highest risk. Consider the
nature of organizations, sole proprietorships with an exposure of 11% are
a cause of concern because of the key man risk factor. Looking at the
credit potential for Coimbatore district (NABARD), lending towards the
subsector of machine tools and transport operations seems to be an
attractive option.
4.1% of the total sanction limit is under high-risk category – the main
contribution being from the cotton textiles and engineering industries.
Karur poses the highest risk location wise when we consider the internal
ratings SME 5 and below. 77% of the exposure under watch list/exit list is
contributed by just 3 industries: Textiles, Iron & Steel & Engineering. Also,
ten customers of the SME centre contribute to about 68% of exposure
under watch list/exit list. Considering the effects of recession on the
industries in this region, we observe from the sample study that textile
industry appears to be the one worst hit by the recession followed by the
real estate and automobile ancillaries. Power shortage is another
important factor that affected the margins of customers in this SME
centre. When it comes to market expansion, gems & jewellery is one
industry where the SME centre may avoid lending atleast in the short
term.
Thus, the project has identified the areas of focus for the SME centre in its
endeavor to manage credit risk. Added to this, suggestion of new avenues
for lending gives a marketing angle to the project and is believed to help
the SME centre in market expansion.
REFERENCES
Books
Internet articles
http://www.diccoimbatore.com/
http://www.axisbank.com/aboutus/aboutaxisbank/About-Axis-Bank.asp
www.bis.org/publ/bcbs128.pdf
Internal data
1. Estimates from Potential Linked Credit Plan for Coimbatore district (Released by
NABARD) 2009-10
Total credit flow projection for the year
732857.2 lakhs
2009-10 is
Investment credit (Rs. Working capital (Rs.
Total
Lakhs) Lakhs)
Potential for Percentage
Financial WC
Sector Bank loan Bank loan 2009-10
outlay assessment
Textiles:handloom 577.5 433.1 1886.5 1509.2 1942.325 0.3%
Textiles:powerloom 1000.0 750 1886.5 1509.2 2259.2 0.3%
Beverages, tobacco and
574.2 430.6 774.8 619.8 1050.4 0.1%
tobacco based
Cotton textile based 22528.4 16896.3 30400.1 24320.1 41216.4 5.6%
wool, silk and synthetic fibre
603.9 453.0 815.0 652.0 1104.9 0.2%
textiles
jute hemp and mesta textiles 208.4 156.3 281.2 225.0 381.3 0.1%
wood and wooden products 3296.1 2472.1 4447.8 3558.2 6030.3 0.8%
paper and paper products 6987.8 5240.8 9429.4 7543.5 12784.3 1.7%
leather based 3836.3 2877.2 5176.7 4141.3 7018.5 1.0%
plastic and rubber based 7727.8 5795.9 10428.0 8342.4 14138.2 1.9%
chemicals and chemical
3317.4 2488.0 4476.5 3581.2 6069.2 0.8%
based
non metallic mineral
3653.4 2740.0 4929.9 3943.9 6683.9 0.9%
products
basic metal and alloy
5371.6 4028.7 7248.5 5798.8 9827.5 1.3%
products
metal products 12168.0 9126.0 16419.6 13135.7 22261.7 3.0%
machinery and machine tolls 20708.1 15531.1 27943.7 22355.0 37886.1 5.2%
electrical machinery and
8425.3 6319.0 11369.2 9095.3 15414.3 2.1%
apparatus
transport equipments 11538.5 8653.9 15570.2 12456.2 21110.1 2.9%
Non farm sector 209184.8 263702.6 472887.4 64.5%
Transport operators 54750 7.5%
Retail trade & small business 20250 2.8%