Commodities Evening Update

Wednesday| December 11, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Wednesday| December 11, 2013

International Commodities
News and Analysis Indias trade deficit narrows down to $9.22 billion in November. ADB raises its 2014 growth forecast for China to 7.5 percent. US EIA crude oil inventories expected to fall by 3 mn bbl Reuters. European equities are trading higher today as investors weighed the monetary stimulus after US lawmakers agreed on a budget deal. Asian markets ended on a negative note and the US stock futures are trading in the red. India's exports grew 5.86 percent in November to $24.6 billion whereas imports declined 16.37 percent annually last month to $33.8 billion, thereby narrowing the trade deficit to $9.22 billion. Oil imports during November, 2013 were valued at USD 12.96 billion while non-oil imports during November, 2013 were estimated at USD 20.86 billion. Spot gold prices traded on a negative note by around 0.5 percent today taking cues from mixed global market sentiments and declining trend in SPDR Gold holdings restricted sharp gains. However, weakness in the DX prevented further decline in the yellow metal. In the Indian markets, gold prices traded on a flat note. Spot silver prices declined by 0.5 percent today taking cues from drop in gold prices. However, gains in base metals coupled with weakness in the DX prevented sharp gains. MCX Silver prices rose by 0.1 percent due to Rupee depreciation. Base metals pack traded on a positive note today on the back of positive growth outlook for China by the Asian Development bank. Decline in LME inventories except Nickel coupled with weaker DX also supported gains in prices of the base metals. However, mixed market sentiments capped sharp gains. In the Indian markets, base metals traded in the green owing to Rupee depreciation. LME Copper prices traded higher by around 0.2 percent today as the Asian Development Bank raised their growth forecast for 2014 to 7.5 percent from an earlier 7.4 percent. Also, decline in inventories by 0.5 percent to 399,875 tonnes coupled with weakness in the DX acted as supportive factor. However, mixed global market sentiments restricted sharp positive movement in prices. MCX Copper prices rose 0.6 percent on Rupee depreciation touching an intra-day high of Rs.450.45/10 gms till 4:15 pm IST. Nymex crude oil prices gained 0.1 percent today on the back of expectations of decline in US crude oil inventories coupled with weakness in the DX. Also, International Energy Administration (IEA) raised their oil demand estimates for 2014 on US recovery which supported an upside in the prices. In the Indian markets, crude prices jumped by 0.6 percent due to Rupee depreciation. The US Energy Department (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories report today at 9:00pm IST and US crude oil inventories is expected to fall by 3.0 million barrels for the wk ending on 6th Dec13. Performance during the day
Index Open High

as at 4.15 pm 11 December 13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE

6307.20

6326.60

6280.25

6307.90

-0.39 -0.39 -0.62 -0.78 -0.27

Source: Reuters

21191.27 21215.94 21069.45 21171.41 15509.93 15562.30 15386.11 15515.06 1987.22 2000.15 1972.87 1977.97

18203.72 18277.78 18161.97 18161.97

as at 4.15 pm 11 December13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low Current % Chg from Prev day

79.99 1.3759 61.007

80.06 1.3773 61.415

79.915 1.3739 61.007

79.965 1.376 61.311

-0.1 0.01 0.44

Source: Reuters

as at 4.15 pm 11 December13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Feb14 MCX Gold Feb14 Spot Silver Comex Silver Mar14 MCX Silver Mar14 Crude Oil Nymex Jan 14 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil Dec 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper Feb14 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - Dec13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - Dec13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX Dec13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX Dec13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz Rs/kg $/bbl

1260.93 1261.90 29499.00 20.37 0.20245 45499 98.65 109.45 6019 7175.00 447.70 1949.00 119.50 2125 129.60 13940 852.80 1802.00 108.70

1262.81 1261.90

1254.04 1255.70

1254.50 1255.70 29530.00 20.24 0.20235 45471 98.56 109.20 6048 7176.75 450.40 1956.00 119.95 2139 130.50 14080 864.70 1814.50 109.65

-0.46 -0.53 -0.02 -0.54 -0.10 0.05 0.05 -0.16 0.62 0.18 0.59 0.33 0.67 0.64 0.89 1.16 1.67 0.75 1.11

29619.0 29471.00 20.40 0.20245 45636 98.75 109.71 6059 7180.00 450.45 1958.00 119.95 2140 130.55 14115 866.00 1818.00 109.70 20.19 0.20235 45318 98.33 109.02 6019 7138.50 447.70 1939.00 119.05 2121 129.35 13930 852.80 1797.50 108.60

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters

Commodities Evening Update

Wednesday| December 11, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook In the evening session, we expect precious metals, base metals and crude oil prices to trade on a mixed note on the back of mixed markets sentiments as a result of uncertainty over the concerns of QE tapering by the Federal Reserve after US lawmakers estimate an automatic cut down in spending around $60 billion over a period of two years. However, weakness in the DX will support an upside in the prices. Crude oil prices to trade higher on the back of estimates of decline in US crude oil inventories and IEA forecast for rise in US fuel consumption in 2014 will support an upside in the prices. In the Indian markets, Rupee has depreciated around 0.5 percent today which will support an upside in the prices during the evening session.

Technical Outook for evening session 11 December 13 ( CMP as of 4.15 pm)

Commodity Gold Feb'14 Spot Gold Silver Mar14 Spot Silver Crude Oil Dec13 Nymex Crude Oil Jan14 Natural Gas Dec13 LME Copper Copper Feb14 Zinc Dec13 Lead Dec13 Aluminum Dec13 Nickel Dec13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmbtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 Support 1 CMP Resistance1 Resistance 2

29300 1244 44900 20.00 5975 97.3 255 7100 446 118.2 129 108 850

29420 1250 45200 20.14 6010 97.8 257 7130 448 119 129.8 108.9 858

29510 1255 45470 20.26 6050 98.54 259.3 7171 450.2 119.85 130.45 109.55 864.7

29630 1260 45750 20.40 6090 99.2 262 7200 452 120.5 131.2 110.4 870

29750 1266 46000 20.5 6120 99.7 264 7230 454 121.3 132 111 877

Important Events for Today

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Core Machinery Orders m/m New Loans MPC Member Weale Speaks Treasury Sec Lew Speaks Crude Oil Inventories 10-y Bond Auction

Japan China UK US US US

5:20am 11 15
th th

0.6% -

0.9% 585B -2.2M -

-2.1% 506B -5.6M 2.75/2.7

Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium

6:30pm 8:30pm 9:00pm 11:31pm