12/7/13

Will Arctic Meltdown Produce More Greenhouse Gases or Less?: Scientific American

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Energy & Sustainability :: Climatewire :: December 6, 2013 :: Print

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Will Arctic Meltdown Produce More Greenhouse Gases or Less?

Thawing permafrost may mean more CO2 in the atmosphere but less sea ice may mean more carbon captured by the Arctic ocean
By Christa Marshall and ClimateWire
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In addition to being a warming hot spot, the Arctic plays a pivotal role in the movement of carbon between atmosphere, land and sea. But the degree to which Arctic regions are a carbon sink, versus a source of greenhouse gas, is still a matter of debate. Permafrost holds vast amounts of carbon long stored in

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cold conditions, for example, but scientists StumbleUpon Submit are trying to pinpoint the pace at which the carbon will be released into the atmosphere because of thawing of frozen soil. Similarly, there are uncertainties about the degree to which reduced cover of Arctic sea ice will change the amount of carbon sequestered in the Arctic Ocean.
CARBON SINK OR SOURCE?: Scientists are concerned about the pace at which carbon will be released into the atm osphere because of thawing of frozen soil and the degree to which reduced cov er of sea ice will change the am ount of carbon sequestered in the Arctic Ocean. I mage: Mike Beauregard/Flickr

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Now two studies are offering some preliminary answers, and their results raise new concerns about the factors playing into future warming. In the first, a chief conclusion is that there needs to be more of a focus on the Arctic winter when it comes to thawing permafrost. "We have a potential [carbon] release that could be similar to deforestation, but far less energy is going into measuring or monitoring it," said Edward Schuur, a professor of ecosystem ecology at the University of Florida and co-author of the study, which appeared in Ecology. Arctic permafrost holds a vast pool of carbon. With climate change, it is estimated that more of this vast pool of carbon will be released to the atmosphere, as long-term frozen soil thaws, explained Schuur. However, warming also is expected to increase plant growth in the tundra, a factor that sucks up carbon from the air and provides a counter to warming. Via a first-of-its-type experiment over three years, the researchers compared how this increased plant growth in the summer offset the release of carbon from
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Will Arctic Meltdown Produce More Greenhouse Gases or Less?: Scientific American

permafrost thawing. They found that induced warming indeed spurred plant growth in the summer in a region of the Alaskan tundra near Denali National Park, increasing carbon uptake from the atmosphere. But this uptake from vegetation was completely offset by carbon release in the winter, an Arctic season that has been less of a focus for researchers in the past. Although the researchers found that increased carbon release essentially countered all the carbon uptake from increased plant growth, the results likely represent a minimum effect, said Schuur. In real conditions, where warming would likely be much more uniform throughout the year, the net loss of carbon from tundra to the atmosphere could be expected to "more than double," according to the study. Carbon release occurs because microbes in the permafrost feed on organic matter, releasing greenhouse gas along the way, explained Schuur. Simulating a warming Arctic The researchers simulated future warming at plots by using a combination of miniature greenhouses and man-made snowdrifts, which counterintuitively warm permafrost like a blanket. Schuur said the warming conditions -- which were simulated in both the air and the tundra -- were similar to what could occur in the next few decades in the region. As the active layer of the permafrost thawed every summer over the study period, the induced warming spurred tundra plants to grow taller, and at a faster pace, Schuur said. "From a climate change perspective, this is a good thing, because the vegetation is taking carbon out of the air," Schuur said. However, the researchers went a step further than many prior studies and tried to simulate warming in winter conditions, via the snowdrift blanketing. "Once you put on that put blanket [of a snowdrift], the soils are warmer throughout the whole year," said Schuur. In a warmer winter in the tundra, the "middle" layer of the permafrost, just underneath the frozen surface, takes a little longer to freeze after the summer season. This delayed freezing allows microbes in the permafrost to have a longer time to feed on organic matter than they had in the past. The microbes are active, even as vegetation activity shuts down in winter months.
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1. Owl905 01:16 PM 12/6/13

Global CO2 emissions for 2012 - 9.7 billion metric tonnes (source CO2Now). Shift in Arctic sink 2007 ff. - +1million tonnes/year. Someone is bringing a toothbrush to a gunfight.
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2. tuned 01:58 PM 12/6/13

Funny how you debate even as major populations are being swept away.
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Will Arctic Meltdown Produce More Greenhouse Gases or Less?: Scientific American
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3. Sisko 03:30 PM 12/6/13

It will be interesting to continue to watch what happens in the arctic over the next few years. There is a recent theory (Wyatt and Curry) that there should be a continuing recovery in the arctic. If this continues to occur it will change how we all think about what is driving the climate system.
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4. Sisko in reply to tuned 04:15 PM 12/6/13

What major populations are being swept away?

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5. Shoshin 07:04 PM 12/6/13

"Will Arctic Meltdown Produce More Greenhouse Gases or Less?" Absolutely, definitely, probably, likely, could be, maybe, unlikely, doubtful, definitely not, never, Period. I trust I've made myself perfectly clear. Now that we've dealt with that issue, I have $1.8 Trillion in new EPA regulations ready to go. That should "re-make" the rest of the economy. Buy a sweater, baby it's gonna be cold out. - POTUS
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6. Owl905 in reply to Sisko 02:32 AM 12/7/13

More of Sisko's re-twisted garbage: "There is a recent theory (Wyatt and Curry) that there should be a continuing recovery in the arctic. If this continues to occur it will change how we all think about what is driving the climate system." There's no such theory of continuing recover. The Wyatt/Curry Stadium wave conjectures a low-level cycle, without claiming it enhances or diminishes AGW. The only thing you need to change is your reading glasses rose-tint.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this Microsoft t o slash Dell Windows 8.1 t ablet t o $ 99 -- for a day Will Arct ic Melt down Produce More Greenhouse Gases or Less? Sharks Do Get Cancer: Tumor Found in Great Whit e Hopes of HIV cure in 'Bost on pat ient s' dashed

7. Ar U. Gaet 08:05 AM 12/7/13

LIttle minds; little thoughts. Earth has been warming since the start of the industrial revolution. It is not unusual for major climate change to have major swings in the opposite direction. This 100 year warming could result in a 100 year mini ice age.
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8. Shoshin 09:48 AM 12/7/13

off topic of course, but SCIAM would never touch this one with a barge pole: "You like to kill bald eagles? You get to keep killing bald eagles. Period" - POTUS http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/12/06/obama-whitehouse-offering-30-year-eagle-killing-permits-in-plan-toboost-windmill-industry/ You cannot make this insanity up. Period.
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9. Therapsid 10:52 AM 12/7/13

Shoshin - Frankly, I think that criticism of wind power to be pretty lame. Coal burning will inevitably kill eagles as well as other animals, just like it does people.

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Will Arctic Meltdown Produce More Greenhouse Gases or Less?: Scientific American
I don't approve killing bald eagles, but for that matter I don't support regulations and bureaucratic red-tape that require government permits to kill them.
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10. Shoshin in reply to Therapsid 11:24 AM 12/7/13

Great, then you should have no problem naming one instance of an eagle being killed by a natural gas or coal fired power plant.
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