Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
PHRASE
Efficient Allocation
Efficient
and free flow of funds between
economic units is critical
The larger the flow and more efficient the
allocation
Greater the likelihood of accommodating everyone’s
preferences
Consequence
Greater the output of the economy as a whole
INFORMATION
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11
12
13
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15
`BRIHASPATI’
Blatant political interference
16
17
18
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20
21
22
23
24
Barter transaction
Prior to the advent of money, barter was the only
means of trade.
25
26
AT&T Sevtelecom
Telecom company Currency Telecom company
USA & Apatite Russia
seller buyer
Apatite Helm AG
Trading Firm
Currency Germany
27
Buyer & Seller
Copyright Tarheel Consultancy Services
Money
&
Markets
28
Exchange your
Could not
Consume all the goods for other
put away goods
goods you have goods and then
for later use
consume them
29
30
31
Physical
Goods MARKETS
Assets
Financial
Assets
32
Economic Units
transacting in
financial markets
33
34
35
36
37
38
Income = Expenditure
funds
SBU DBU
claim
e.g. e.g.
•household •government
sector
•business
entities
•nation as a
40
41
Services
Financial Assets
42
43
44
45
46
47
BALANCE OF TRADE
49
Or a government agency
50
Receipts
51
funds
SBU DBU
claim
debt instrument
equity shares 52
53
funds
SBU DBU
claim
ASSET LIABILITY 54
56
57
58
60
Reversibility
61
62
63
64
funds
SBU DBU
Ownership or
equity shares
•Claim on profits
•Assets
remaining after
debtors have
been paid 65
shares
dividends
67
68
69
70
71
72
funds
SBU DBU
debt instrument
or IOU
•Pay interest
at periodic
intervals
•Repay
principal at 73
maturity
Copyright Tarheel Consultancy Services
Short term
debt
instruments
Types of
debt
instruments
Long term
debt
instruments
74
Bond Debenture
Firms also issue debt In the U.S a debenture is a
securities for which specific bond for which no assets of
assets are designated as the firm have been specified
collateral. as collateral.
Secured debt Unsecured debt
Note: In India the terms bonds and debentures are used interchangeably and thus
could refer to secured as well as unsecured debt
75
long term
T-bonds time to maturity
10 – 30 years
medium term
T-notes time to maturity
1 – 10 years
short term
T-bills time to maturity
13, 26, 52 weeks
Note: Terminology often differs across countries.
76
e.g. T-notes in Australia, correspond to T-bills in the U.S
Copyright Tarheel Consultancy Services
Debt (Cont…)
77
80
81
82
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Assets Liabilities
FUNDS CLAIMS
or
DEBT or borrowed capital
or
EQUITY or owners capital
Assets Liabilities
86
88
89
Interest 0 20,000
91
93
collateral
Periodic
payments
Mortgagor Mortgagee
borrower lender
Can take
over
property 94
95
96
Returns
Time
Riskiness
pattern
Liquidity
97
Time
Riskiness
pattern
Liquidity
98
99
Returns
•May not
pay
dividends Time
Riskiness
pattern
•Capital
appreciation
may be
less/losses Liquidity
•Firm may
go into
bankruptcy
100
Returns
•Cash flows
from bonds
Time are
Riskiness
pattern
predictable
•Cash flows
from
Liquidity dividends
can be
volatile
101
L Time
O Riskiness
W pattern
Liquidity
102
Markets
104
Ravi applies for 1000 shares Six months later Ravi sells
and is allotted 200 shares at a these shares on the National
price of Rs 850 Stock Exchange for Rs 1250
per share
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107
108
in a pool of securities.
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110
111
112
113
115
116
Brokers
Market
Intermediary
Investment
Dealers
Bankers
117
counterparties.
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paper etc.
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121
122
123
125
126
devolvement.
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128
130
131
132
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LENDER
individual
Corporate
borrower
family
Commercial
bank
Non – corporate
Financial borrowers
claims
Financial 135
136
I. Market
Intermediary
Pension Mutual
funds funds
137
138
139
LENDER
individual
Corporate
borrower
family
Commonwealth
Bank
5.5% pa
4% pa
Telstra etc.
Financial
claims
Financial 140
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145
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148
150
151
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Benefits of listing:
1. Trading of listed shares is easier and the company will
attract a broader class of shareholders
2. Listing gives the company enhanced visibility
3. It becomes easier for the company to raise capital
Once approval is granted a company has to
pay the prescribed listing fees
158
160
position’
162
165
166
What is arbitrage?
Arbitrage may be described as the existence of the
potential to make riskless profits by transacting in
multiple markets.
167
169
Equilibrium isServices
Copyright Tarheel Consultancy restored
Arbitrage & Market Imperfections
172
174
175
177
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182
Arab countries
183
184
History Today
Loans have been made on The growth of the
the basis of a fixed rate Eurocurrency market has
lead to loans based on
floating rates of interest
The interest rate remains The interest rates on such
fixed for the tenure of the loans are not constant, but
loan are linked to a benchmark.
Consequently they vary with
changes in the level of the
benchmark. 185
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190
191
market.
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196
globalization:
The pace of innovations in financial products and
services
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To quote Dembroski:
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1
Part-02:Interest Rates
&
The Time Value of Money
2
Interest Rates
3
Introduction
All of us have either paid and/or received
interest at some point of time.
Those of us who have taken loans have paid
interest to the lending institutions.
Those of us who have invested have received
interest from the borrowers.
4
Introduction (Cont…)
Types of Loans
Educational Loans
Housing Loans
5
Introduction (Cont…)
Automobile Loans
6
Introduction (Cont…)
Investments
Savings accounts, and
Fixed deposits (Time deposits) with banks
7
Introduction (Cont…)
Bonds & Debentures
8
Introduction (Cont…)
Definition of interest
Compensation paid by the borrower of capital to
the lender
For permitting him to use his funds
An economist’s definition
Rent paid by the borrower of capital to the
lender
Tocompensate for the loss of opportunity to use the
funds when it is on loan
9
Introduction (Cont…)
Concept of rent
When we decide not to live in an
apartment/house owned by us
We let it out to a tenant
The tenant pays a monthly rental
Because as long as he is occupying our property we
are deprived of an opportunity to use it
10
Introduction (Cont…)
The same concept applies to a loan of funds
The difference is
• Compensation in the case of property is called RENT
• Compensation in the case of capital is called INTEREST
11
The Real Rate of Interest
In a free market
Interest rates are determined by
Demand for capital
• And
The supply of capital
12
The Real Rate (Cont…)
One of the key determinants of Interest is
The Pure rate of interest a.k.a
The Real rate of interest
13
The Real Rate (Cont…)
Definition of the Real rate:
The rate of interest that would prevail on a risk-less
investment in the absence of inflation.
Example of a risk-less investment
Loan to the Federal/Central government
Such loans are risk-less because there is no risk
of default
The central government of a country is the only
institution authorized to print money
14
The Real Rate (Cont…)
But
they say that certain governments (in Latin
America etc.) have defaulted on debt
15
The Real Rate (Cont…)
Yesthey have defaulted on dollar
denominated debt
The government of Argentina for instance can
print its own currency but not U.S. dollars
16
The Real Rate Illustrated
The price of a banana is Rs 1
17
Illustration (Cont…)
Take the case of a person who lends
Rs 10 to the Government of India (GOI)
Obviously there is no fear of non-payment
If the GOI pays back Rs 11 after one year
The amount will be sufficient to buy 11
bananas.
18
Illustration (Cont…)
In this case a loan of Rs 10 has been
returned with 10% interest in money terms
Since the investor is in a position to buy
10% more in terms of bananas
The return on investment in terms of the ability
to buy goods is also 10%
The rate of interest as measured by the ability
to buy goods and services is termed as
THE REAL RATE of INTEREST
19
The Real Rate (Cont…)
Inthe real world price levels are not
constant.
Erosion in the purchasing power of money is a
fact of life
This is termed as inflation
20
Inflation
21
The Real Rate (Cont…)
Most people who invest do so by acquiring
financial assets such as
Shares of stock
Shares of a mutual fund
Or bonds/debentures
22
The Real Rate (Cont…)
Financial assets give returns in terms of
money
Without any assurance about the investor’s
ability to acquire goods and services at the time
of repayment.
Financial
assets therefore give a
NOMINAL or MONEY rate of return.
Inthe example, the GOI gave a 10% return on
an investment of Rs 10.
23
The Real Rate (Cont…)
In the example the 10% money rate of
return was adequate to buy 10% more in
terms of bananas.
This was because we assumed that the price of
a banana would remain fixed at Rs 1.
24
The Real Rate (Cont…)
But
what if the price of a banana after a year is
Rs 1.05.
Rs 11 can then acquire only
25
The Real Rate (Cont…)
Inthis case the nominal rate of return is 10%
But our ability to buy goods has been enhanced
only by 4.80%
Thus the REAL rate of return is only 4.80%
The relationship between the nominal and real
rates of return is called the FISHER hypothesis
Because it was first postulated by Irving Fisher.
26
The Fisher Equation
Consider a hypothetical economy
It consists of one good – say BANANAS
The current price of a banana is Rs P0
So Rs 1 can buy bananas.
27
The Fisher Equation (Cont…)
Assume that the price of a banana next period
is P1.
P1 is known with certainty today but need not be
equal to P0
In other words although we are allowing for inflation,
we are assuming that there is no uncertainty
regarding the rate of inflation.
So one rupee will be adequate to buy
29
The Fisher Equation (Cont…)
Rs 1 in a Financial bond → Rs (1+R)→
30
The Fisher Equation (Cont…)
Inorder for the economy to be in equilibrium
both the bonds must yield identical returns.
Therefore it must be true that:
31
The Fisher Equation (Cont…)
Let us denote inflation or the rate of change in
the price level by π
32
The Fisher Equation (Cont…)
This is the Fisher equation.
R or the rate of return on a financial bond is the
nominal rate of return
r or the rate of return on a goods bond is the
real rate of return
33
The Fisher Equation (Cont…)
Ifr and π are very small, then the product
of the two will be much smaller.
For instance if r = 0.03 and π = 0.03, the
product is 0.0009
Ifwe ignore the product we can rewrite the
expression as
R=r+π
This is the approximate Fisher equation.
34
Uncertainty
Thus far we have assumed that the rate of
inflation is known with certainty.
Inreal life inflation is uncertain
Consequently it is a random variable
35
Uncertainty (Cont…)
In the case of random variables
We do not know the exact outcome in
advance
All we know is the expected value of the
variable
Which is a probability weighted average of the
values that the variable can take.
36
Uncertainty (Cont…)
Inflation Probability
2.50% 0.20
5.00% 0.20
7.50% 0.20
10.00% 0.20
12.50% 0.20
37
Uncertainty (Cont…)
The expected value is given by
38
Uncertainty (Cont…)
The Fisher equation can therefore be re-
written as
R = r + E(π)
Thus when inflation is uncertain
Theactual real rate that we will eventually get is
unpredictable and uncertain
39
Uncertainty (Cont…)
Assume that the required real rate is
4.50%
Since the expected inflation is 7.50%
an investor will demand a nominal rate of return
of 12%
40
Uncertainty (Cont…)
Once the nominal rate is fixed, it will not
vary
But there is no guarantee that the realized
rate of inflation will equal the expected
rate
Inthis case if the realized inflation is 9%, the
realized real rate will be only 3%
41
Uncertainty (Cont…)
Thusin real life even a default free
security will not give an assured real rate.
Itwill give an assured nominal rate
But the real rate that is eventually obtained will
depend on the actual rate of inflation
42
Ex-ante versus Ex-post
An economist will say that the ex-ante rate
of inflation need not equal the ex-post rate
Ex-ante means anticipated or forecasted value
Ex-post connotes actual or realized value
43
Uncertainty & Risk Aversion
Inthe real world investors are characterized by
RISK AVERSION.
This does not mean that they will not take risk
What does it mean therefore?
To induce an investor to take a greater level of risk he
must be offered a higher expected rate of return.
44
Risk Aversion (Cont…)
Given a choice between two investments with
the same expected rate of return
The investor will choose the less risky option
In the case of inflation
The investor will not accept the expected inflation as
compensation
Why?
The actual inflation could be higher than anticipated
Which implies that the actual real rate could be lower than
anticipated.
45
Risk Aversion (Cont…)
To tolerate the inflation risk
Theinvestor will demand a POSITIVE risk
premium
That is, compensation over and above the expected
rate of inflation
The Fisher equation may be restated as
R = r + E(π) + R.P.
Where R.P is the risk premium
46
Risk Aversion (Cont…)
Does the provision of a risk premium
guarantee that the
ex-ante real rate = ex-post real rate
NO!
Suppose the required real rate is 4.5%,
that E(π) = 7.5%, and that R.P = 1.5%
Then the required nominal rate will be 13.50%
47
Risk Aversion (Cont…)
In the absence of a risk premium
A rate of inflation > 7.5% implies a realized real rate <
4.5%
But when a risk premium is factored in
A rate of inflation > 9% implies a realized real rate <
4.5%
So the risk premium provides a bigger cushion
against inflation
But it does not guarantee a minimum ex-post real rate
48
Other Determinants
Besides
the required real rate
the expected inflation
and the inflation risk premium
the following factors impact the required
nominal rate
Length of the investment
Credit Risk
49
Length of the Investment
Lender like to lend short term
Borrowers like to borrow long-term
So how do we induce a lender to lend for
a longer period
Offer a HIGHER nominal rate of return
50
Typical Interest Rate Schedule in a Bank
52
Credit Risk (Cont…)
This is called credit risk
Appliesto all investments except Central
government securities
Thereis a difference between inflation risk
and credit risk
Inflation is an economy wide phenomenon
Credit risk however varies from borrower to
borrower
53
Credit Risk (Cont…)
Because of credit risk
The rate of return demanded by a lender will vary from
borrower to borrower
Which is why
For a given real rate
For a given tenor of the loan
For a given rate of inflation
a bank will charge different rates of interest on
loans made to different borrowers.
54
Simple Interest & Compound Interest
55
Measurement Period
The unit in which time is measured is
called the Measurement Period
Themost common measurement period is One
Year.
56
Interest Conversion Period
The unit of time over which interest is paid
once and is reinvested to earn additional
interest is called
The Interest Conversion Period
The interest conversion period is typically
less than or equal to the measurement
period.
57
Nominal Rate of Interest
The
quoted rate of interest per
measurement period is called
The NOMINAL rate of interest
58
Effective Rate of Interest
The interest that a unit of currency
invested at the beginning of a
measurement period would have earned
by the end of the period is called
The EFFECTIVE Rate of Interest
59
Effective Rate (Cont…)
If
the length of the interest conversion
period is equal to the measurement period
The effective rate will be equal to the nominal
rate
Ifthe interest conversion period is shorter
than the measurement period
The effective rate will be greater than the
nominal rate
60
Variables and Symbols
P ≡ principal invested at the outset
N ≡ # of measurement periods for which
the investment is being made
r ≡ nominal rate of interest per
measurement period
i ≡ effective rate of interest per
measurement period
m ≡ # of interest conversion periods per
measurement period
61
Simple Interest
Consider an investment of Rs P for N
periods.
According to this principle
Interestearned every period is a constant
Every period interest is computed and credited
only on the original principal
No interest is payable on any interest that has
been accumulated at an intermediate stage
62
Simple Interest (Cont…)
If r is the nominal rate of interest
P → P(1+r) after one period→P(1+2r) after 2
periods →P(1+rN) after N periods
So every period interest is paid only on the
original principal
N need not be an integer
Investments can be made for fractional periods
63
Illustration-1
Caroline has deposited Rs 10,000 with
Corporation Bank for 3 years
The bank pays simple interest at the rate
of 10% per annum
10,000 will become 10000x1.1 = 11,000
after one year →10000x1.1 + 1,000 =
12,000 after two years → 13,000 after 3
years
13,000 = 10,000(1+ .10x 3) ≡P(1+rN)
64
Illustration-2
Amit Gulati deposits Rs 10,000 with ICICI
Bank for 5 years and 6 months.
Bank pays simple interest at 8% per
annum.
Maturity value
= 10,000(1+.08x5.5) = Rs 14,400
Notice: N need not be an integer
65
Compound Interest
Consider an investment of Rs P for N
periods.
Assume that the interest conversion
period is equal to the measurement period
That is, the effective rate is equal to the nominal
rate
66
Compound Interest (Cont…)
In the case of compound interest
Every time interest is earned it is automatically
reinvested at the same rate for the next
conversion period.
So interest earned every period is not a
constant
It steadily increases
P→P(1+r) after one period →P(1+r)2 after
two periods→P(1+r)N after N periods.
67
Illustration-3
Caroline
has deposited Rs 10,000 with
Corporation Bank
Bankpays 10% per annum compounded
annually
Rs10,000→11,000 after one year→
11000x 1.1 = 12,100 after 2 years →
12,100x1.1= 13,310 after 3 years
13,310 = 10,000x (1.10)3
68
Illustration-4
Gulatideposited Rs 10,000 with ICICI
Bank for 5 years and 6 months.
Bank has been paying 8% compounded
annually
P(1+r)N = 10,000(1.08)5.5 = Rs 15,269.71
69
Compound Interest (Cont…)
Compounding yields greater benefits than
simple interest
The larger the value of N the greater is the
impact of compounding
Thus, the earlier one starts investing the
greater are the returns.
70
Illustration-5
The East India Company came to India in 1600.
Consider an investment of Rs 10 in 1600 with a
bank which pays 3% per annum compounded
annually.
The balance in 2000 = 10x(1.10)400 = Rs 1,364,237.18
71
Properties
If N=1, that is, the investment is for one period,
both simple as well as compound interest will
give the same accumulated value.
If N < 1, the accumulated value using simple
interest will be higher. That is:
(1+rN) > (1+r)N if N < 1
IfN > 1, the accumulated value using compound
interest will be greater. That is:
(1+rN) < (1+r)N if N > 1
72
Properties
Simple interest is usually used for short-
term transactions – investments of one
year or less
It is the norm for money market transactions
Forcapital market securities – medium to
long term debt and equities – compound
interest is the norm.
73
Illustration-6
Amit Gulati deposited Rs 10,000 with ICICI Bank
for 5 years and six months.
The bank pays compound interest at 8% for the first 5
years and simple interest at 8% for the last six months.
10,000(1+.08)5 = 14,693.28
14,693.28(1 + .08x.5) = Rs 15,281.01
On the other hand 10000(1.1)5.5 = 15,269.71
The difference is because for the last six months simple
interest yields more than compound interest.
74
Effective versus Nominal Rates
ICICI Bank is quoting 9% per annum
compounded annually
HDFC Bank is quoting 8.75% per annum
compounded quarterly
In the case of ICICI
The nominal rate is 9% per annum
The effective rate is also 9% per annum
In the case of HDFC
The nominal rate is 8.75%
The effective rate is obviously higher
75
Effective…(Cont…)
8.75% per annum ≡ 2.1875% per quarter
So a deposit of Rs 1→(1.021875)4 = 1.090413
So the effective rate offered by HDFC is
9.0413% per annum
Thus when the frequencies of
compounding are different
Comparisons between alternative investments
should be based on effective rates and not
nominal rates
76
Effective (Cont…)
The nominal rate is r% per annum
Interest is compounded m times per annum
The effective rate is:
77
Effective…(Cont…)
We can also derive the equivalent nominal rate
if the effective rate is given
78
Illustration-7
HDFC Bank is paying 10% compounded
quarterly.
If Rs 10,000 is deposited for a year what will be the
terminal amount
The terminal value will be
79
Illustration-8
Suppose HDC Bank wants to offer an effective
annual rate of 10% with quarterly compounding
What should be the quoted nominal rate
80
Equivalency
Two nominal rates compounded at
different time intervals are said to be
Equivalent if
Thesame principal invested for the same
length of time
Produces the same accumulated value in either
case.
81
Equivalency (Cont…)
In other words two nominal rates
compounded at different intervals are
equivalent if they yield the same effective
rate
82
Equivalency (Cont…)
ICICIBank is offering 9% per annum with semi-
annual compounding.
What should be the equivalent rate offered by
HDFC Bank if it intends to compound quarterly.
83
Equivalency (Cont…)
The issue is, what will be the nominal rate that
will give an effective annual rate of 9.2025% with
quarterly compounding
84
Continuous Compounding
Consider Rs P that is invested for N periods at
r% per period.
If interest is compounded m times per period,
the terminal value will be
85
Continuous Compounding (Cont…)
86
Illustration-9
Narasimha Rao has deposited Rs 10,000 with
Corporation Bank for 5 years at 10% per
annum compounded continuously.
The final balance is:
87
Illustration-10
Canara Bank is quoting 10% per annum
with quarterly compounding.
What should be the equivalent rate with
continuous compounding?
Two nominal rates are equivalent if they give
the same effective annual rate.
Let k be the nominal rate with quarterly
compounding, and r the nominal rate with
continuous compounding.
88
Illustration-10 (Cont…)
89
Illustration-10 (Cont…)
In this case:
90
The Limit
Continuous compounding is the limit as
we go from
Annual
To semi-annual
• Quarterly
Monthly
Daily
And shorter intervals
91
Illustration-11
Sangeeta has deposited Rs 100 with ICICI
Bank.
The interest rate is 10% per annum.
What will be the terminal balance under the
following scenarios:
Annual compounding
Semi-annual compounding
• Quarterly compounding
Monthly compounding
Daily compounding
Continuous compounding
92
Illustration-11 (Cont…)
Frequency of Terminal Balance
Compounding
Annual Rs 110.0000
Semi-annual Rs 110.2500
Quarterly Rs 110.3813
Monthly Rs 110.4713
Daily Rs 110.5156
Continuously Rs 110.5171
93
Future Value
When an amount is deposited for a time period
at a given rate of interest
The amount that is accrued at the end is called the
future value of the original investment
So if Rs P is invested for N periods at r% per period
94
FVIF
(1+r)N is the amount to which an investment of
Rs 1 will grow at the end of N periods.
It is called FVIF – Future Value Interest Factor.
It is a function of r and N.
It is given in the form of tables for integer values of r and
N
If the FVIF is known, the future value of any principal
can be found by multiplying the principal by the factor.
The process of finding the future value is called
Compounding.
95
Illustration-12
Suhasini has deposited Rs 10,000 for 5 years at
10% compounded annually.
What is the Future Value?
96
Illustration-13
Swapna has deposited Rs 10,000 for 4 years at
10% per annum compounded semi-annually.
What is the Future Value?
10% for 4 years is equivalent to 5% for 8 half-years
97
Illustration-14
GIC has collected a one time premium of
Rs 10,000 from Suhasini and has
promised to pay her Rs 23,000 after 10
years.
The company is in a position to invest the
premium at 10% compounded annually.
Can it meet its obligation?
98
Illustration-14 (Cont…)
The future value of Rs 10,000 =
10,000 x 2.5937 = Rs 25,937
This is greater than the liability of
Rs 23,000
So GIC can meet its commitment
99
Illustration-15
Syndicate Bank is offering the following
scheme
Aninvestor has to deposit Rs 10,000 for 10
years
Interest for the first 5 years is 10% compounded
annually
Interest for the next 5 years is 12% compounded
annually
What is the Future Value?
100
Illustration-15 (Cont…)
The first step is to calculate the future value
after 5 years:
The next step is to treat this as the principal and compute its
terminal value after another 5 years.
101
Present Value
When we compute the future value we
seek to determine the terminal value of an
investment that has earned a given rate of
interest for a specified period.
Now consider the issue from a different
angle?
Ifwe want a specified terminal value, how much
should we invest at the outset, if the interest
rate is r% and the number of periods is N.
102
Present Value (Cont…)
So instead of computing the terminal value
of a principal
we seek to compute the principal that
corresponds to a given terminal value.
The principal amount that we compute is
called the Present Value of the terminal
amount.
103
The Case of Simple Interest
An investment yields Rs F after N periods.
If the interest rate is r%, what is the present
value?
We know that:
F = P.V.x(1+rN)
So obviously
104
Illustration-16
Venkatachalamwants to ensure that he has
saved Rs 12,000 after 4 years.
So he deposits Rs P with a bank
If the bank pays 5% per annum on a simple interest
basis, what should be P?
105
The Case of Compound Interest
An investment pays r% per period on a
compound interest basis.
If we want Rs F after N periods, how much
should we deposit today?
106
Illustration-17
Priyankawants to ensure that she has
Rs 15,000 after 3 years.
The bank pays 10% compounded annually
How much should she deposit?
107
PVIF
1/ (1+r)N is the amount that has to be deposited to yield
Rs 1 after N periods if the periodic interest rate is r%
It is called the Present Value Interest Factor (PVIF)
It is a function of r and N
It is given in the form of tables for integer
values of r and N
If we know the factor, we can find the present value
of any terminal amount by multiplying the two.
The process of finding the principal value of a
terminal amount is called Discounting
PVIF is the reciprocal of FVIF
108
The Additivity Principle
Suppose you want to find the present or future
value of a series of cash flows, where the rate of
interest is r%, and the last cash flow is received
after N periods.
You have to simply find the present or the future
value of each cash flow and add up the terms to
compute the present or future value of the
series.
Thus Present and Future Values are additive.
109
Illustration-18
Consider the following vector of cash
flows.
The interest rate is 10% compounded
annually.
YEAR Cash Flow
1 2,500
2 4,000
3 5,000
4 7,500
110
5 10,000
Illustration-18 (Cont…)
111
Illustration-18 (Cont…)
The relationship between the present and future
values is given by
FV = PV(1+r)N
In this case
112
The Internal Rate of Return
Suppose that we are told that an investment of
Rs 18,000 will entitle us to the following vector of
cash flows.
The question is what is the rate of return?
113
The IRR (Cont…)
Therate of return is the solution to the following
equation:
114
The IRR (Cont…)
The solution to this equation is called the
Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
It can be obtained using the IRR function
in EXCEL.
In this case, the solution is 14.5189%
115
Effective Rates
Suppose we are asked to calculate the present
or future values of a series of cash flows arising
every six months.
And we are given an annual rate of interest
without specifying the compounding frequency.
The normal practice is to divide the interest rate by 2 to
determine the periodic interest rate
That is, the quoted rate is treated as a nominal rate and
not as an effective rate
116
Illustration-19
Considerthe following vector of cash flows.
Assume that the annual interest rate is given as
10%.
117
Illustration-19 (Cont…)
The Present Value will be calculated as:
118
Illustration-19 (Cont…)
Butwhat if it is explicitly stated that the effective
annual rate is10%?
Then the calculations will change
119
Effective Rates (Cont…)
Thepresent value is greater when we use
an effective annual rate of 10% for
discounting.
This
is because the lower the discount rate the
higher will be the present value
And an effective rate of 10% per annum is lower than
a nominal rate of 10% with semi-annual
compounding.
By the same logic the future value is lower when we
121
The Future Value Approach
Assume that the instrument is bought for
5,000.
If the rate of return is 10% the future value
is
5,000 x 1.6105 = Rs 8,052.50
Since the instrument promises a terminal
value of Rs 10,000 which is greater than
the required future value, the investment is
attractive.
122
The Present Value Approach
The present value of Rs 10,000 using a discount
rate of 10% is
10,000 x 0.6209 = Rs 6,209
So if Rs 6,209 is paid at the outset the rate of
return will be 10%
If we pay more at the outset, the rate of return will
be lower and vice versa.
In this case the investment of Rs 5,000 is less than
Rs 6,209
So the investment is attractive
123
The Rate of Return Approach
Suppose you invest Rs 5,000 and receive
Rs 10,000 after 5 years.
What is the rate of return?
It is given by:
124
The Rate…(Cont…)
The solution is 14.87%
Since the actual rate of return is greater
than the required rate of 10%, the
investment is attractive.
125
Annuities
126
Annuities (Cont…)
What is an annuity?
Itis a series of identical payments made at
equally spaced intervals of time
Examples
House rent till it is revised
Salary till it is revised
Insurance premia
127
Annuities (Cont…)
In the case of an ordinary annuity
The first payment is made one period from now
128
Annuities (Cont…)
The
interval between successive
payments is called the
PAYMENT Period
We will assume that the payment period is
the same as the interest conversion period
That is, if the annuity pays annually, we will
assume annual compounding
If it pays semi-annually we will assume semi-
annual compounding
129
Present Value
130
Present Value (Cont…)
131
Present Value (Cont…)
132
Present Value (Cont…)
134
Future Value
135
Future Value (Cont…)
136
Future Value (Cont…)
138
Relationship Between
PVIFA and FVIFA
139
Annuity Due
Inthe case of an Annuity Due, the cash flows
occur at the beginning of the period.
140
Present Value
141
Present Value (Cont…)
142
Present Value (Cont…)
The present value of an annuity due that makes
N payments is greater than that of an annuity
that makes N payments
Why?
Because each cash flow has to be discounted for one
period less.
Example of an annuity due?
An insurance policy
The first premium has to be paid as soon as the policy is
purchased.
143
Illustration-22
David has bought an LIC policy
The annual premium is Rs 12,000 and he has to
make 25 payments.
What is the present value if the discount rate is
10% per annum?
144
Future Value
145
Future Value (Cont…)
The future value of an annuity due that
makes N payments, is greater than that of
a corresponding annuity, if the future value
is computed at the end of N periods.
Why?
Because each cash flow has to be computed
for one period more.
146
Illustration-23
IfDavid takes an LIC policy with a premium of
Rs 12,000 per year for 25 years, what is the
cash value at the end of 25 years?
147
Perpetuities
An
annuity that pays forever is called a
PERPETUITY.
The future value of a perpetuity is obviously
infinite.
But a perpetuity has a finite present value.
148
Perpetuities (Cont…)
149
Illustration-24
A financial instrument promises to pay
Rs 1000 per year forever.
If the investor requires a 20% rate of return, how
much should he be willing to pay for it?
150
Amortization
The amortization process refers to the
process of repaying a loan by means of
equal installment payments at periodic
intervals.
The installments obviously form an
annuity.
Thepresent value of the annuity is the loan
amount.
151
Amortization (Cont…)
Each installment consists of
Partial
repayment of principal
And payment of interest on the outstanding
balance
An amortization schedule shows the
division of each payment
into a principal component and
interest component
together with the outstanding loan balance after
the payment is made.
152
Amortization (Cont…)
Consider a loan which is repaid in N installments
of Rs A each.
The original loan amount is Rs L, and the periodic
interest rate is r.
153
Amortization (Cont…)
154
Amortization (Cont…)
155
Amortization (Cont…)
156
Amortization (Cont…)
157
Illustration-25
Srividya has borrowed Rs 10,000 from
Syndicate Bank and has to pay it back in five
equal annual installments.
The interest rate is 10% per annum on the
outstanding balance.
What is the installment amount?
158
Amortization Schedule
159
Analysis
At time 0, the outstanding principal is 10,000
After one period an installment of Rs 2,637.97 is made.
The interest due for the first period is 10% of 10,000 or Rs 1,000
So the excess payment of Rs 1,637.97 is a partial repayment of
principal.
After the payment the outstanding principal is Rs 8,362.03
After another period a second installment is paid.
The interest for this period is 10% of 8,362.03 which is
Rs 836.20.
The balance of Rs 1,801.77 constitutes a partial repayment of
principal.
160
Analysis (Cont…)
The value of the outstanding balance at
the end should be zero.
After each payment the outstanding
principal keeps declining.
Since the installment is constant
The interest component steadily declines
While the principal component steadily
increases
161
Amortization with a Balloon Payment
Obviously, the larger the balloon the smaller will be the periodic
installment for a given loan amount. 163
Amortization Schedule
164
Types of Interest Computation
Financial institutions employ a variety of
different techniques to calculate the
interest on the loans made by them.
The interest that is effectively paid on the
loan may be very different from the rate
that is quoted.
THUSWHAT YOU SEE IS NOT WHAT YOU
ALWAYS GET
165
The Simple Interest Method
Inthis technique, interest is charged for
only the period of time that a borrower has
actually used the funds.
Each time principal is partly repaid, the interest
due will decrease.
166
Illustration
Alfred has borrowed $5,000 from the bank
for a year.
The bank charges simple interest at the
rate of 8% per annum.
If the loan is repaid at the end of one year:
Interestpayable = 5000x0.08 = 400
Total amount repayable = 5,400
167
Illustration (Cont…)
Assume the PRINCIPAL is repaid in two
equal semi-annual installments.
After six months principal of $2,500 is repaid.
Interest will however be charged on 5,000.
= 2700
168
Illustration (Cont…)
For
the next six months interest will be
charged only on $2,500.
The amount payable at the end of the second
six-monthly period
= 2500 + 2500x0.08x.5 = $2,600
Total outflow on account of principal plus
interest = 2700 + 2600 = 5300
Obviously the more frequently the principal is
repaid the lower is the interest.
169
The Add-on Rate Approach
In this case interest is first calculated on the full
principal.
The sum of interest plus principal is divided by
the total number of payments to determine the
amount of each payment.
In Alfred’s case if he repays in one annual
installment, there will be no difference with this
approach as compared to the simple interest
approach.
170
Add-on…(Cont…)
What if he repays in two installments?
Interest for the entire year = 400
This will be added to the principal and divided
by 2.
Thus each installment = (5000 + 400)
____________
2
= 2700
171
Add-on…(Cont…)
The quoted rate is 8% per
annum.
But the actual rate will be higher.
The actual rate is given by
172
Add-on (Cont…)
The solution is i = 10.5758%
Thisis of course the nominal annual rate.
The effective annual rate is 10.8554%
173
The Discount Method
Inthis approach the total interest is first
computed on the entire loan amount.
Thisis then deducted from the loan amount.
The balance is lent to the borrower.
174
Illustration
Alfred borrows 5000 at 8% for a year.
The interest for the year is 400.
So Alfred will be given 4600 and will have to
repay 5000 at the end.
The effective rate of interest
= (5000 – 4600)
___________ x 100 = 8.6957%
4600
175
Discount Loan (Cont…)
Such loans usually do not require
installments and are settled in one lump
sum at the end.
176
Compensating Balances
Many banks require that borrowers keep a
certain percentage of the loan amount with
them as a deposit.
This is called a Compensating Balance.
It raises the effective interest rate
Sincethe borrower cannot use the entire
amount that is sanctioned
177
Illustration
Alfred is sanctioned $ 5,000 at the rate of
8%.
But he has to keep 10% of the loan
amount with the bank for the duration of
the loan.
So while he pays an interest of $400, the
usable amount is only
5000x0.9 = $ 4,500
178
Illustration (Cont…)
The effective interest cost is
400
________ x 100 = 8.8889%
4500
Quite obviously
Thehigher the compensating balance, the
greater will be the effective interest rate.
179
Annual Percentage Rate (APR)
The effective rate of interest that is paid by
a borrower is a function of the type of loan
that is offered to him.
Since different lenders used different loan
structures, comparisons between
competing loan offers can be difficult.
180
APR (Cont…)
Toensure uniformity the U.S. Congress
passed the
Consumer Credit Protection Act
This is commonly known as
The Truth-in-Lending Act
Thelaw requires institutions extending
credit to use a prescribed method for
computing the quoted rate.
181
APR (Cont…)
Every lending institution is required to
compute the APR and report it before the
loan agreement is signed.
The most accurate way to compute the
APR is by equating the present value of
the repayments made by the borrower to
the loan amount.
182
APR (Cont…)
For
the examples that we have
considered the precise APR would be:
Loan Type APR
perceived as risky.
Consequently merchants began to
withdrawals
Unlike a NOW account, an MMDA can be
held by a business as well.
In many cases a minimum balance is
required if an account is to earn
Automatic Transfer
Service (ATS)
What is an ATS?
It is a combination of a checking and a
savings account.
Funds are primarily maintained as a savings
deposit
Consequently balances earn interest
Regular access to Y Y X
cash
Freedom to make Y Y X
deposits/withdraw
als
Pay by check Y X X
Use ATM/POS Y Y X
Internet/Phone Y Y X
Banking
OTC Facilities Y Y Y
Rewards for X Y Y
savings
Earn higher X X Y
interest
RBI’s Definition of Demand
Deposits
There are two types of demand deposit
accounts in India
Current Accounts: “A form of demand
deposit wherefrom withdrawals are
allowed any number of times depending
on the balance in the account or up to
a particular agreed amount and shall
also be deemed to include other deposit
accounts that are neither savings
deposit or term deposit”
RBI’s…(Cont…)
Savings Accounts: “It is a deposit
account which is subject to the
restrictions as to the number of
withdrawals as also the amounts of
withdrawals permitted by the bank
during any specified period.”
Loans
Deposit taking is one the core
activities of a bank.
Making loans is obviously another
facet of banking operations.
Loans offered to qualified
commercial borrowers
Are the highest yielding portion of a bank’s
asset portfolio
Provide a major share of its revenues from
operations
Loans (Cont…)
In the early days banks used to
provide primarily working capital
credit to companies
By discounting bills
And by extending short-term loans to
finance inventories and work-in-
process
Loans (Cont…)
In recent years the focus of bank
lending has moved to term loans
This refers to the extension of
medium to long term loans to
businesses to build up fixed assets
such as
- Buildings
- Plant
- And machinery
Loans (Cont…)
Banks also extend loans to
facilitate the acquisition of real
estate
Both residential
As well as commercial
Loans (Cont…)
The fastest growing area among
loans are consumer loans.
Traditionally banks have shied away
from making loans to individuals and
households.
This is because these loans tend to be
small in size
And the perceived level of default risk
was considered to be
disproportionate.
Loans (Cont…)
But over a period of time this
perspective has changed.
Banks have realized that they need to
pamper consumers.
For, retail customers as a group, are
the largest source of funds for banks.
In order to have access to such funds
banks have to carefully nurture their
relationships with these customers.
One way of doing this is by extending credit when
required.
Loans (Cont…)
Consumer loans tend to be short-
term as well as long-term.
Short-term loans are used for:
Purchasing non-durable goods
And services such as
Food
Clothing
Medical care
Holidays
Loans (Cont…)
Long-term loans are used for
Purchasing durables, such as:
Houses
Automobiles
Home appliances
Loans (Cont…)
Bank loans may be installment
based or non-installment based.
Short-term loans generally are paid
off in the form of one lump sum
payment.
Installment loans are paid back by
way of periodic equated installments.
They are used to finance
Automobiles
Mobile homes
Boats and recreational vehicles
Furniture and home appliances
Loans (Cont…)
Installment credit tends to be
revolving in nature.
That is, each time the loan is paid off
in full or in part
He can borrow again up to the
sanctioned limit
Loans (Cont…)
Banks also extend home loans or
mortgage loans to consumers.
Loans are made for periods ranging
from 15 to 30 years.
They are paid off in equated monthly
installments.
Loans (Cont…)
One of the fastest growing
segments of the consumer credit
market, are what are known as
Home Equity Loans.
What is the difference between a
Home Loan and a Home Equity
Loan.
A home loan is taken to acquire a
home.
Loans (Cont…)
In the case of a home loan, the house
is pledged as collateral and the lender
has a lien on it till the loan is fully
repaid.
Home equity loans are different
Here too the home is pledged as
collateral.
But the borrower is not seeking to
acquire the home.
He wants to unlock the equity that he
Illustration
Assume that a man owns a house
worth $250,000.
$50,000 remains to be paid on the
original housing loan.
The owner’s equity is therefore
$200,000.
Assume that the lender is wiling to
lend up to 70% of the value of the
equity, which in this case is
Illustration (Cont…)
$140,000 is the maximum that the
homeowner can borrow by
pledging his house.
This is known as the Borrowing
Base.
Home equity loans also work as
revolving lines of credit.
Under IRS regulations, interest on
such loans is tax exempt under
Credit & Debit Cards
Credit cards are also a mechanism
for extending installment credit to
a client.
They enable people to `Buy Now and
Pay Later’.
Debit cards are a new innovation.
They enable purchases to be made by
electronically transferring funds from
the customer’s account to the
merchant’s account.
Negotiable Instruments
The negotiable instruments act
does not define such instruments It
states: “A negotiable instrument
means a promissory note, bill of
exchange or check payable to
order or bearer.”
Negotiable Instruments
(Cont…)
Characteristics
Free Transferability – transfer can be
by delivery if it is a bearer instrument
or by endorsement and delivery if it is
payable to order
Title to transferee – Transferees who
take the instrument bond fide and for
valuable consideration get good title
despite any defect in the title of the
transferor
Negotiable Instruments
(Cont…)
The maker or drawer of such
instruments cannot subsequently
deny its validity
The capacity of the payee to
endorse the instrument cannot be
denied
The endorser cannot, in a suit by a
holder in due course, deny the
signature or capacity of any prior
party
Negotiable Instruments
(Cont…)
Such instruments may be payable
to the bearer or payable to order
Payable to Bearer: Payment will be
made to the person who bears it or
on which the last endorsement is
in blank
Payable to Order: Payable to a
specified person or his order
Checks
A check is a `bill of exchange’
drawn on a specified banker
It includes the electronic image of
a truncated check and a check in
the electronic form
Checks (Cont…)
Check in Electronic Form: “A check
which contains the exact mirror
image of a paper check and is
generated, written and signed, in a
secure system ensuring the
minimum safety standards with
the use of digital signature
Checks (Cont…)
Truncated Checks: “Which is
truncated during the course of a
clearing cycle either by the
clearing house or by the bank
whether paying or receiving
payment immediately on
generation of an electronic image
for transmission, substituting the
further physical movement of the
check in writing.”
Checks (Cont…)
A check is an unconditional order
on a specified banker where the
drawer has an account
It is payable only on demand
It is drawn for a certain sum of
money
It can be countermanded
Checks (Cont…)
Crossing: It is an instruction given
to the paying bank that it should
be paid only through a bank and
not across the counter
Who may cross?
The drawer
The holder
The banker
Checks (Cont…)
General Crossing: This is done by
drawing two lines across the face
of the check, with or without the
words `& Co’ or `non negotiable’
The bank on whom it is drawn should
pay only through a bank
If it is payable to order, it should be
properly endorsed by the payee
Checks (Cont…)
Special Crossing: Within the two
lines the drawer writes specific
instructions such as the bank it
should be paid to
The objective is to ensure payment
only if it is presented through a
specific bank
A/c Payee Checks: The check
should be paid to the account of a
Check 21
The Check Clearing for the 21st
century or Check 21 took effect in
the US on 28 October 2004
Payers no longer receive copies of
their cancelled checks
Checks clear much faster – often on
the same day
Check 21 (Cont…)
Why Check 21? It is a way to make
check processing easier and less
expensive for the financial industry
The old method required checks to be
physically moved from one place to another
For instance let us say that you write a
check to a store. It will be deposited in its
bank account. It will then be physically
transported back to your bank. It has to be
then cleared.
Check 21 (Cont…)
Under check 21 the check will not
move beyond the payee’s bank
The bank, instead of physically
transporting the check will just
transmit an electronic image
It has been estimated that banks
will save about USD 2 billion from
check 21
But the law does not require banks to
reduce their checking account fees
Check 21 (Cont…)
Substitute Checks: It is a paper
copy of the front and back of the
original check. This is made by the
bank that receives the payment.
The original check is kept by the
bank that first receives it.
It has the freedom to decide whether
to destroy it or keep it on file.
Check 21 (Cont…)
Disadvantages: May not be easy to
prove fraud if someone alters the check.
Since substitute checks are copies, changes
may be harder to detect
Traditional checks allow the drawer to
enjoy a float – there is a lag between
the time the check is written and its
clearance.
This could lead to more bounced checks
And higher overdraft costs
Electronic Check
Conversion
Check 21 allows bank to process
payments electronically without
physically sending the checks from bank
to bank
An ECC allows a merchant, a credit card
company, or other party who receives
your check to extract information from
it and process the payment
electronically
More Recent Bank
Services
These days banks have started
offering many new types of
services such as:
Cash management
Equipment leasing
Venture capital
Insurance services
Retirement plans
Investment banking
Cash Management
Services
Cash management is a marketing
term for certain services offered by
banks, primarily to large business
houses.
Cash…(Cont…)
These include
Account Reconcilement
Armored Car Services
Automated Clearing House
Balance Reporting Services
Cash Concentration Services
Lockbox Services
Positive Pay
Sweep Accounts
Zero Balance Accounting
Wire Transfer
Controlled Disbursement
Account Reconcilement
Balancing a checkbook can be difficult for a
large business
Since a large number are issued it is difficult to
monitor what has cleared and what the true balance
is
Banks allow companies to upload a list of all
the checks they issue on a daily basis
At the end of the month the bank statement will
show what has cleared and what has not
Positive Pay: The system can prevent checks
from being fraudulently cashed if they are not
on the list.
Armored Car Services
Large retailers who collect a great
deal of cash may have the cash
collected by the bank using the
services of an armored car
company
Automated Clearing House
(ACH)
It is an electronic system used to
transfer funds between banks
Companies use this to pay other
particularly employees
Certain companies also use this
system to collect monies from
customers
Balance Reporting
Services
Corporations that actively manage
large cash balances usually
subscribe to secure web-based
reporting of their account and
transaction information at their
lead bank.
They may also view balances in
foreign currencies and balances with
other banks
Balance…(Cont…)
Subscribers can view information on:
Cash balances
Checks in the process of collection
Transaction specific details on all forms of
payment activities
Deposits
Checks
Wire transfers
ACH debits and credits
Investments
Cash Concentration
Services
Large or national retailers may operate
in areas where their primary bank has
no branches
So it is common for them to open accounts
with local area banks
To prevent the funds from being idle, they
enter into agreements with their primary
bank whereby the ACH is used to
electronically pull these deposits into a
single interest-bearing account
Lockbox
Companies like utilities which
receive a large number of checks
by mail have the bank do the
following tasks for them
Set up a post-office box
Open their mail
Deposit any checks found
Sweep Accounts
Excess funds from a company’s
bank account are automatically
moved to a Money Market Mutual
Fund overnight
The money is moved back the
following morning
Thus companies can earn interest
overnight
Zero Balance Accounting
Companies operating at multiple
locations can be confused if all the
locations are depositing funds into a
single bank account
Thus banks developed a system where
each location is given its own bank
account
However all monies deposited into the
individual accounts are automatically
swept into the main account
Wire Transfer
A wire transfer is an electronic
transfer of funds
This is the fastest way of
transferring funds between bank
accounts
In this system, a message is sent
to the receiving bank requesting it
to effect payments in accordance
with the instructions given
Controlled Disbursement
The bank provides a daily report,
usually at the beginning, that
provides the amount of
disbursements from the account
This allows customers to deploy
any surplus in money market
securities
Equipment Leasing
In a leasing arrangement, the bank
will first purchase the equipment.
This will then be leased out to the
client.
The bank, which is known as the
`Lessor’ in such cases, is the
owner of the asset.
Consequently it can claim
depreciation as per law.
Equipment Leasing
(Cont…)
The client is known as the
`Lessee’.
What are the advantages for the
lessee.
Firstly he can pay for the use of
the equipment on a monthly basis
rather that in the form of a lump
sum.
Secondly the monthly lease rentals
constitute a tax-deductible
Venture Capital
Who is a venture capitalist?
He is a person who invests in a
high risk venture.
In other words he ventures into
uncharted territory.
Conventional wisdom has it that
nine out of ten such ventures fail.
But the anticipation is that the returns from
the single profitable venture will more than
compensate for the losses suffered on
account of the other investments.
Insurance Services
Banks have traditionally sold
Credit Life Insurance to customers
who borrow from them.
How does such a policy work?
It guarantees that the loan will be
repaid if the customer were to die or
become disabled before the loan is
fully paid off.
Insurance Services
(Cont…)
The Glass-Steagall Act in the U.S.
prohibited commercial banks from
engaging in Insurance activities.
But the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act
which was passed in 1999
removed such barriers.
Retirement
Banks play a key role in helping
companies to manage their
employee pension plans.
They help invest the incoming funds
in accordance with the guidelines
given by the employee
And disburse payments to recipients
who have qualified for payment on
account of retirement or disability.
Retirement (Cont…)
Banks also offer deposit retirement
plans for individuals.
These are known as Individual
Retirement Accounts or IRAs.
Deposits in such accounts stay
invested until the employee becomes
eligible for post-retirement income.
Account holders get tax benefits as
per law.
Investment Banking
The term investment banking
refers to a bouquet of activities.
Two of the main activities of such
institutions are:
Brokerage services
Underwriting services
Mutual Funds & Annuities
Mutual funds as explained earlier
pool funds from their shareholders
and invest in marketable securities
such as stocks and bonds.
Every fund will have a stated investment
objective which will have a bearing on its
choice of investments.
An income oriented fund will invest more in
Corporate banking
International banking
Group treasury
Investment banking
Information services
Corporate centre
Retail Banking
It is usually the largest area of
operations within a bank.
Its key function is to provide
personal, business and retail
customers with
Deposit services
Lending services
Fund transfer facilities
Retail Banking (Cont…)
The crux of retail banking is
Marketing.
The area employs a variety of
personnel.
Corporate Banking
This facet of banking deals with
the development and management
of client relationships with leading
corporations as well as Small and
Medium Enterprises (SMEs).
Loans and other financial products
are developed and customized to
meet the specific needs of such
borrowers.
International Banking
The international division of a bank
provides international trade
related services such as:
Arranging for international finance
Arranging for shipping and customs
clearances
Provision of remittance services
Arranging for offshore loans
Group Treasury
Group treasury is concerned with
the following activities
Trading
Risk management
Fund management
Asset and liability management
Group Treasury (Cont…)
Treasury deals involve millions and
at time billions of dollars.
Thus both speed and skill are of
essence.
The staff is expected to:
Be technically accomplished
foreign economies
Be acquainted with
Money markets
Capital markets
FOREX markets
Investment Banking
Investment bankers provide a variety of
specialized services such as:
Underwriting
Portfolio management
Pension plans
Information Services
The systems team is concerned
with the development and
maintenance of computer based
systems.
Electronic banking systems such
as ATMs and POS Terminals
require extensive computer
systems operations.
These days other internal activities
Corporate Centre
The Corporate Centre or the
Headquarters of a bank is the
nerve centre.
It is primarily concerned with long
range planning
The CEO and his key management team are based
here.
Consequently most policy decisions originate from
here.
Related solutions and applications as well are
devised here.
The U.S. Banking Structure
It is well known that the U.S. has
some of the largest banks in the
world.
What is perhaps less known,
however, is the fact that it has
perhaps the largest number of
small banks in the world.
In 1990 the 100 largest banks held about
70% of the total assets of the banking
industry.
Unit Banks
What is a Unit Bank?
It is an organization that offers all its
services from a single physical
location.
However although there is a single
branch, limited services are usually
offered from additional facilities like
Drive-in windows
ATMs
And POS Terminals
Branch Banking
These banks by definition offer a
full range of financial services from
multiple physical locations.
One of these locations will be the
Head Office, while others will be
branch offers.
In addition limited service facilities
will be available as for unit banks.
Networking
Many commercial banks have set
up shared facilities to facilitate
Fund transfers
And disseminate financial information
The most familiar of such facilities
are shared ATM networks such as:
CIRRUS
PULSE
EXPRESS CASH
Networking (Cont…)
Customers carrying credit and
debit cards issued a member of
the network, can carry out
transactions through any ATM
belonging to the network, even
though the particular ATM being
used may belong to another bank.
U.S. Banking Regulations
Prior to commencing its
operations, every bank should
obtain a Charter of Incorporation.
A bank may opt for a:
State Charter
Or a National Charter
Regulations (Cont…)
All nationally chartered banks must
join the Federal Reserve system.
They must also secure a certificate
of approval for deposit insurance
from the Federal Deposit Insurance
Corporation or FIDC.
Regulations (Cont…)
A state chartered bank need not
join the Federal Reserve.
Nor need it apply for FDIC cover.
Regulations (Cont…)
The first significant regulation from
the standpoint of the U.S. banking
industry was the McFadden-Pepper
Act of 1927.
McFadden Pepper Act
It permitted nationally chartered
banks to branch out within the city
where they were headquartered
Provided that the laws of the state did
not forbid such branching
However branching across the
state was not permitted
Unless expressly approved by the
state where such branching was
sought to be undertaken
McFadden…(Cont…)
Thus states were given the
ultimate power to decide:
If and where nationally chartered
banks operating within the borders of
the state should open branches
If and where banks chartered by the
state itself should set up branches
Glass-Steagall Act
It provided that a nationally
chartered could branch throughout
its home state
Provided the state where the bank
was headquartered gave similar
powers to its own state chartered
banks.
Thus the need to obtain permission
from the states was done away with.
Glass-Steagall (Cont…)
However branching beyond the
borders of the home state was
forbidden
Unless the state concerned
specifically permitted inter-state
banking
The bank thus gave greater
freedom for branch expansion
But it away the privilege of a
Glass-Steagall (Cont…)
There were two sections of the Act
that had special significance.
Section 16
And Section 20
Section 16 prohibited nationally chartered
banks from
Investing in stocks
$0 - $10.30 million 0%
decrease by $1,000.
In return the bank will have a
multibanking system.
Illustration (Cont…)
Customer Alpha deposits $1,000
with Bank One.
Assume that the reserve
requirement is 10%.
The bank will have to retain $100:
Either in its vaults
Or else as a deposit with a Federal
Reserve bank
Illustration (Cont…)
Thus the amount of loanable funds
is $900.
Let us assume that it is lent to
customer Beta who promptly
deposits it with the bank.
Illustration (Cont…)
After accepting a deposit from
Beta the bank will have to keep
$90 as a reserve.
Consequently $810 will be
loanable.
Assume that this is lent to
customer Charlie who promptly
deposits it with the bank.
Illustration (Cont…)
If the process is taken to its logical
conclusion, the deposit base will
expand as follows:
$1,000 + $900 + $810……
= $1,000 + 0.9 x 1,000 + (0.9)2 x
1,000…..
= 1,000
______ = $10,000
Multiplier Effect
Thus an original deposit of $1,000
can create a deposit base of
$10,000 by a process of
expansion.
In this case the deposit multiplier
is 10.
What is the deposit multiplier?
It is nothing but the reciprocal of the
reserve ratio.
Multiplier Effect (Cont…)
Will a deposit of $1,000 always
lead to a deposit base expansion
of $10,000.
The answer is no.
For instance what if after making a
loan to Charlie, the bank is unable
to find takers for loans.
In this case the deposit expansion will
only be to the tune of $2,710.
Multiplier Effect (Cont…)
Or assume that Charlie borrows
$810, withdraws $110 in cash and
deposits the balance with the
bank.
Assume that:
The amount withdrawn in cash does
not re-enter the banking system
And that the deposit of $700 made by
Charlie leads to the maximum
possible expansion.
Multiplier Effect (Cont…)
In this case, the total expansion in
reserves will be:
1000 + 900 + 700
_____ = $8900
(1-0.9)
The withdrawal of funds from the
banking system is called a
Leakage.
Obviously, the greater the leakage
Money Contraction
The creation of reserves has a
multiplier effect.
Obviously the depletion of reserves
will result in contraction of money
supply.
Illustration
Assume that customer Alpha
withdraws $1,000 from the bank in
the form of cash.
The total reserves held by the
bank would be:
0.1x1,000 + 0.1x0.9x1,000 +
0.1x0.9x0.9x1,000……
= 0.1x10,000 = $1,000
Illustration (Cont…)
Thus the bank has enough
reserves to payoff Alpha.
But the bank is still holding
deposits of $9,000.
Thus there is a shortage of
reserves to the tune of $900.
Illustration (Cont…)
Obviously the bank needs to
borrow this amount.
Assume that the bank borrows by
issuing securities to a party called
Delta who is holding a deposit of
$900 with Bank Two.
Delta will pay by withdrawing this
amount from his bank.
Illustration (Cont…)
Bank Two will obviously have a
reserve shortage of $810
The rationale is that the deposit of
$900 held by Delta would have
resulted in a deposit expansion of
$9,000 on which the bank would
have been maintaining $900 as
reserves.
Thus a withdrawal of $900 by Delta
Illustration (Cont…)
Taken to its logical conclusion the
withdrawal from the banking
system would be as follows:
1,000 + 900 + 810…….
= 1,000 + 0.9x1,000 +
(0.9)2x1,000…..
= $10,000
Money Contraction
(Cont…)
Thus while a deposit of $1,000 has
the potential to increase the
deposit base by $10,000, the
withdrawal of $1,000 has the
potential to reduce the deposit
base by $10,000.
Why do we say `potential’?
We have already seen that leakages
can prevent the deposit expansion
Money Contraction
(Cont…)
Similarly in the case of withdrawals, the
multiplier may be less than what theory
predicts.
For instance assume that Alpha
withdraws $1,000.
The bank immediately issues securities
worth $900 to Delta.
Delta withdraws $800 from his bank and
pays $100 from his pocket in the form
of cash.
Money Contraction
(Cont…)
Bank Two would have been holding
$900 as reserves prior to the
withdrawal.
It will now have reserves worth
$100 against a deposit base of
$8,200.
Thus there would be a deficit of
$720.
If it were to issue bonds for $720,
Money Contraction
(Cont…)
Thus the contraction process will
be as follows:
1,000 + 800 + 720 + 648 + …….
= 1,000 + 800 + 0.9x800 +
(0.9)2x800….
= $9000
which is less than the maximum
possible amount of $10,000.
Federal Funds
What are Federal Funds?
Banks have to maintain reserve
deposits with district Federal
Reserve banks.
These are held:
To satisfy legal requirements
To clear checks
Pay for the purchase of government
securities
Federal Funds (Cont…)
These balances can be
instantaneously transferred from
one bank to another through the
FED’s wire transfer network called
FED WIRE.
Funds transferred in this manner
are called Federal Funds, or FED
Funds for short.
Federal Funds (Cont…)
Why would a bank seek to borrow
FED Funds from another?
It could be the case that its reserve
balance is less than the legal
requirement
Or there may be a loan demand for
which funds are urgently required,
and consequently it may be required
to borrow from another bank.
Banks do not like to hold excess
Current Trends
Banks have started offering a wide
variety of services.
This is partly due to increasing
competition.
And to an extent due to the growing
sophistication of consumers
Current Trends (Cont…)
Many of these new activities are a
source of non-interest income.
Banking has traditionally been a fund
based activity
That is banks raise deposits and make
loans
The profit margin on such activities is
a function of the interest rate
differential
Current Trends (Cont…)
The new activities that banks are
entering into are non-fund based
These are referred to as fee based
activities
That is, the banks provide a service
for which they are paid a fee
Due to deregulation and rising competition the average
cost of raising deposits has gone up.
That is banks are now forced to offer market rates of
interest to their depositors.
Current Trends (Cont…)
Strict capital adequacy guidelines
have now been prescribed.
This too has pushed up the cost of
funding.
What do we mean by capital
adequacy?
The liability of a bank consists of
Owner’s equity capital
And mainly of borrowed funds
Current Trends (Cont…)
Regulators now require banks to
use more of owners’ capital.
Equity capital is more expensive than
borrowed funds.
This is because equity holders are residual
claimants over whom depositors are
accorded priority
Shareholders can receive dividends only
after depositors
In the event of liquidation depositors
nationality.
Globalization (Cont…)
Banks consequently cannot take
relationships with domestic
customers for granted.
They need to cultivate clients on a
global basis.
And need to be aware that foreign
competitors are breathing down their
necks.
Globalization (Cont…)
To quote Frances Cairncross:
`A company’s market is no longer its
locality or even its nation. Thanks
to global toll-free numbers and the
Internet’s global reach, electronic
commerce offers an inexpensive
way to sell to the world. And the
world to sell to us.’
Globalization (Cont…)
Cairncross predicts:
`International mail order and
electronic distribution will be big
business, bringing customers an
unprecedented range of choice
and driving competition at the
level of the electronic high street.
It will create global brands and
global pricing strategies.’
Globalization (Cont…)
The traditional domination of U.S.
banks is fast eroding.
Japanese and European banks have
grown considerably in size due to
Consolidation
Mergers & Acquisitions
Globalization (Cont…)
Free trade agreements such as
NAFTA and the formation of the EU
have allowed banks to operate
outside the borders of their
respective countries with the same
freedom as that enjoyed by
domestic banks in the country of
operation.
Globalization (Cont…)
But globalization has also
increased the risk of failure.
Economic integration is also
accompanied by greater transmission
of risk across borders.
The Internet Revolution
The number of people accessing
the Internet is growing at a
frenetic pace.
But the Internet is unlikely to
eliminate the need for a bank
representative or a phone banking
officer.
It has often been the experience that minor
problems which can be solved face to face
or over the phone, can snowball into major
Internet…(Cont…)
The Internet is particularly relevant
for regions in countries like the U.S
and Australia which are sparsely
populated.
Citizens often stay miles away from
the nearest city or town.
Distance is therefore a major barrier
for executing transactions like bill
payments.
Universal Banking
Banks have learnt the importance
of:
BEING WHERE THE CUSTOMERS
ARE
Traditionally a bank would be
located at the centre of the main
street of the town.
But today’s crowd does not
patronize Main Street, it prefers
Universal Banking (Cont…)
Customers want a one-stop
banking relationship.
One of the areas which has seen
major changes is superannuation.
The days of secured government jobs
with lifelong pensions is now history.
The focus is on tailor made pension
plans.
Universal Banking (Cont…)
Modern banks now function as
financial supermarkets.
As Simon points out:
individual individual
Borrow
Lend funds
funds
financial sector
family family
Age of consumer finance
repay loan
consumer loan
Borrowed
funds
used for
Commercial
Personal Family Household Agricultural Or
Business
Examples
Consumer loan
automobile
Consumer loan
furniture
Consumer loan
business
Consumer loan types
Types of
financial
institutions
Savings
Commercial and Credit Finance
banks loan Unions Companies
institutions
Commercial Banks
Outstandings Outstandings on
on consumer > commercial loans /
loans other loans
About 50% of all
automobile loans are
made by commercial
banks
Banks - Advantages
• After deregulation:
– they make a wide variety of consumer loans
Credit Unions
Minus-es Plus-es
Channels
buy installment
make loans to
loans from
extend loans other lending
merchants who have
directly to institutions which
extended such
consumers offer credit
loans to their
to consumers
customers
Factors that influence consumer
borrowing patterns
Background
Historically Today
Consumer is driven by
People borrowed for buying
consumption
big ticket items rather than wait
Consumers borrow to finance
till the money could be saved all kind of purchases
• Basic every day living items
• Luxury items
• Emergency needs
People did not like being in Attitude has changed - people
debt are not intimidated by the
prospect of being in debt
Factors
influencing
borrowing
patterns
Income
Life cycle Inflationary
& Business
of expecta-
wealth cycle
individual tions
levels
Income and wealth levels
They are
These
better aware
borrowers
of pros/cons of
tend to be
using borrowed
better
funds to
educated
add to incomes
For them
borrowing is a
tool to attain a
higher standard of living
not just a safety net
Life cycle of individual
120
100
80
60 Debt
40
20
0
25 40 60
Age of individual
Business cycle
Positives Negatives
Loan servicing costs (excluding
housing loan) should be max
15-20% of a family’s gross
income
Duration of employment Many institutions deny loans to
borrowers who are employed at
their present job for less than a
year
Applicants who own land /
marketable securities are
considered a safer bet
Own their place of dwelling Renting place of dwelling
Evaluating a loan application
Positives Negatives
Families with multiple earning There is the risk that the single
members earning member may become
unemployed/disabled/even die
Having a telephone at home -
inexpensive way of contacting
the borrower at all times
Length of residence at a
particular location - the longer
a person stays at a given
address the more stable
Co - Applicant
Historically Today
Yes/ No Yes
Spouse’s current
$9,000
annual income
Name of spouse’s
Iowa City Mortgage Union
employer
Occupation Secretary
Length of employment 6 months
The information i have given in this credit
application is true and correct to the best of my
knowledge. I am aware that the bank will keep
this credit application regardless of whether or
not the loan is approved. The bank is hereby
granted permission to investigate my credit and
employment history for purpose of verifying the
information submitted with this credit application
Customer’s
and for evaluating my credit status.
A.B. Charlie
signature
Date signed 1/15/2005
Application Evaluation
Positives Negatives
Family income - Combined Stability -
income amounts to $39,000. •Been at present address for
This figure will be verified from only 8 months
the employers. •Stayed at previous address for
only 10 months
•Worked with present employer
for only 7 months
Other debt obligations - It Other debt obligations -
includes their home mortgage Financial information gathered
loan and is only 2.5 times their from the Charlies indicates they
total annual income (less than 3 have debt obligations of $98,000
times is usually acceptable)
Application Evaluation…
Positives Negatives
Debt obligations Monthly disposable
Bulk of the debt service payments are on income
their home. If real estate market is The total monthly
strong, value of the home will provide payments on their debt
adequate security
seems rather high @
Financial record $1,125 p.m. It accounts for
They have enough insurance and above almost 35% of their annual
average holdings assets in the form of income (25% - 30% is
stocks & bonds acceptable)
Character - Verification with the
employers has revealed that husband
and wife have good prospects for
continued employment
Evaluation…
Table 1.1
Name of Max Amount Outstanding Past Montly Status
creditor term owed balance due payments
Credit
Loan is denied
These days a The bank can then dial up And then use a credit
customer can phone in the credit bureau report scoring system to reach
a loan request or fill an through an online network a decision in minutes
internet application
How Credit Scoring works
Model
The system is based on a model in which several variables
are used jointly to establish a numerical score or ranking
Score
The score or ranking is considered to be a measure of the
credit quality of the applicant
Advantage Disadvantage
Element of personal Strict adherence to such
judgment is eliminated systems may lead to the
alienation of customers
The decision time is Customers may feel that
reduced their financial condition has
not been fairly appraised
Customers may feel the
special circumstances
pertaining to their
application have been
ignored
Credit Scoring…
Loans made by
financial institutions
may be classified as
bank borrower
Direct Loan…
Historically Today
Face-to-face contact with a A borrower need not enter a branch until the
loan is closed. But bankers have fewer
branch officer was the only way
opportunities for face-to-face interaction.
to:
Innovations began with drive through / walk
• Make inquiries about loans through windows, telephone banking, ATMs
• Make applications for credit & access cards
Today institutions take applications through
• Finalize borrowing
• Call centres
arrangements
• Direct mail
• Internet
• Supermarket branches
• Mall loan kiosks
Centralized vs. Decentralized
The range of
financial options available
Dealer
Bank
Consumer
Indirect Lending example
Recreational Mobile
Automobile
vehicles homes
dealers
dealers dealers
Indirect lending process
A “dealer
agreement” is Once the
Lender/bank
executed – it agreement is
must compete defines the terms signed the dealer
with other lenders & conditions for may offer the
offering credit to lender’s credit
for the dealer’s the dealer’s retail
services to his
business clients
clients
Indirect lending process…
…cont’d
Grant conditional
Turn it down approval
Approve the
application • Larger down
payment
• Shorter term to
maturity
Indirect lending process
…cont’d
Loan is Customer
Contract will be
approved signs the
loan contract sold to the lender
Indirect Lending…
Info
in a
dealer
agreement
Selected
Rate bank
Max. rate Dealer Dealer
charges Down
dealer can Maximum Recourse/ recourse
on loans payment
charge loan term Dealer account
purchased requiremnt
consumer Reserve details
from dealer
option
Multiple relationships
Basic
recourse
options
• Repurchase Recourse
– The dealer is responsible for the full amount of any
losses if the bank returns the collateral.
– There may be certain time constraints the
collateral must be returned within 90 days of
delinquency on the loan
• Limited Recourse
– The dealer may agree to reimburse the bank for a
flat amount like $1,000
– Or for a specific time period such as the first 12
months any losses in excess of the amount or
after the stated time period are the responsibility
of the bank.
Dealer Recourse…
• At best
– Recourse option can enable a bank to minimize
losses
– It can also allow it to make loans to slightly high
risk customers
• At worst
– The bank may be lulled into a false sense of
security
– This may result in unexpected loan losses
– Or unacceptably high delinquencies
Indirect Lending…
liability
Problem
Problem
• Applications and contracts may be submitted
to and approved by multiple lenders resulting
in the dealer being paid twice for the sale.
– This is called double financing
Solution
• Double financing is easy to detect because
the customer will receive two coupon books
Double financing
Problem
• Dealer personnel may misrepresent some terms on
the application to make it look more favorable
– Selling prices
– Down payments etc.
• May give the impression that consumer has invested
more in the sale than what the dealer has actually
received
Solution
• Reliance on sound collateral valuation guides to
determine the amount that the bank should lend
Fraud…Straw purchases
• Convenience
– Able to buy a product and simultaneously arrange
finance
When shopping
Floorplan
for cars/white If the item is in
inventory the sale financing helps
goods customers
usually want can be closed dealers maintain
immediate immediately well stocked
delivery inventories
Secure And Unsecure loans
Secured & Unsecured Loans
Secured
loans
Value of
Depreciation Bank’s own
collateral at Market
pattern experience
time of environment
of the with the
making for the product
collateral product
loan
Factors…
A lien on a
The client may
savings account
take advantage The bank will
that is serving as
by withdrawing then be left with
collateral is
most of the funds no collateral
suddenly
or all of it
released
Appreciating Value Collateral
practices
A car dealer
He must also
advertises the
disclose other
fact that he is
aspects of the
asking for a low
loan
down payment
Credit reporting
agencies then
furnish the bank
Note: Banks do not get to see with a list of
the individual credit reports of people who meet
parties who meet the criteria the criteria
Prescreening process – post 1996
Race
Income Color
No
discrimintn
Age Religion
based
on
Marital National
Status Origin
Sex
Equal Credit…
1. Sex
– It cannot be used as a factor
2. Marital Status
3. Age
– Age may be considered when it is used to favour
an elderly applicant in obtaining credit
– Age can also be used as a part of a credit
scoring system provided that elderly applicants
are not penalized
Equal Credit…
1. Income
– Lenders are required to consider likely consistent
income from
• Alimony
• Child support
• Maintenance payments
– Income from welfare or public support programs
may also be taken into account
– The regulation prevents lenders from
disregarding income from
• Part time employment
• Or from a woman of child bearing age
Adverse Action
If the counteroffer
If the counteroffer
is accepted, no
additional is not accepted,
disclosures need an “adverse
be made by the action notice” has
lender to be sent
Adverse Action…
• According to Regulation B
– Lenders must notify applicants in writing of an
“adverse action” within 30 days of receiving a
completed application in the case of new
applications
– Or after taking adverse action on an existing
account
• Terminating a line of credit
Community Reinvestment Act of 1977
Trends…Lenders Trends…Customers
Trends…Lenders Trends…Customers
3 ways of
repaying a loan
Equal total
Equal total
payments Equal principal
payments with a
or payments
Balloon payment
Amortized method
method
method
The Amortization Method
installments
• In previous illustration
0 25000.00
1 500.00 3125.00 3625.00 21875.00
2 437.50 3125.00 3562.50 18750.00
3 375.00 3125.00 3500.00 15625.00
4 312.50 3125.00 3437.50 12500.00
5 250.00 3125.00 3375.00 9375.00
6 187.50 3125.00 3312.50 6250.00
7 125.00 3125.00 3250.00 3125.00
8 62.50 3125.00 3187.50 0.00
Equal Principal…
Positives Negatives
It incurs less total interest It requires higher total
over the life of the loan payments in the earlier
since the principal is repaid years when the ability to
more rapidly repay may be limited
Since principal is repaid
more rapidly, interest
deductions for the purpose
of tax rebates will be lower
Equal Payments with a Balloon
global transactions
Introduction (Cont…)
• This process worked fine for the bank but not for the consumer
or the merchant
Consumer Merchant
They faced the inconvenience / They had to wait for the
delay associated with customer to return with the
–Going to the bank money to make the purchase
–Applying for a loan
–Awaiting the bank’s decision
–Receiving the funds
Be stuck with unsold
merchandise if the bank
rejected the loan application
Precursor to modern credit card
A Novel Idea
One of the banks came up with a novel idea.
It offered to Approved
approve credit for customers were
consumers before issued a special
they found an item currency created for
to purchase this purpose
It offered to Approved
approve credit for customers were
consumers before issued a special
they found an item cardboard created
to purchase for this purpose
The bank entered into The merchant had to transfer And deposit
agreements with local the information contained on the slip at
merchants to accept the card to a slip that the the bank
this cardboard bank had given it
An improvement…
For the bank
• Eligibility:
– Any financial institution that is eligible for FDIC
insurance is eligible for VISA membership.
• Non-eligibility:
– Companies issuing cards that compete with VISA,
are precluded from issuing VISA cards.
– E.g. Discover or American Express
Membership of Associations
Card types
Travel &
Bank cards Entertainment House cards
cards
These are issued by These are issued These are valid only
commercial banks. They by agencies like at the stores of one
carry logos like VISA, American Express chain. E.g. Sears is
Mastercard, Discover or Diners Club the biggest
Credit Cards
a. They have VISA / MasterCard brand on
them
b. Clients can access the credit limit assigned
to them by the financial institution
– to make purchases
– obtain cash
c. The card holder has the option to pay the
billed amount
– in full every month
– spread his repayment over time at an agreed
upon interest rate
Charge Cards
The process
Advantages Disadvantages
Merchants like them because It is more painful to resolve a
they get instant payment without problem with a purchase if the
worrying about bad checks money has been debited to
your account than if it is just a
demand to pay as in the case
of a credit card
Some consumers prefer them
because they allow them to only
spend the money they have
thus avoiding the temptation to
overspend on credit
Debit Cards – Investor protection
But the charge gets processed This is true only if you notify
through the VISA processing the card issuer within two
network thereby activating VISA’s business days of the loss or
zero liability policy theft of your card
Other card types
Retailer or Store
ATM cards Affinity cards
cards
ATM Only Cards
Magnetic
Chips
stripes
Magnetic Stripes
Types of credit
outstanding
Flow of a bank card transaction
Flow of a Bank Card Transaction
– Labour
– Data processing
acquiring institution.
4. Periodic Fees
center.
4. Other Expenses
• These include
– Overhead allocations from the parent company
– General supplies
Factors Influencing Card Profitability
Factors Influencing Card Profitability
• These include:
1. Credit Losses
2. Cost of Funds
3. Direct Expenses
1. Credit Losses
• These include
1. Interchange income
– Copies of transactions
account.
Debit card expenses
Origin of Debit Card Expenses
– Courier charges
4. Authorization, Processing and
Settlement
statement.
6. Customer Service
– Transaction disputes
– Service disputes
7. Fraud and Security
amounts.
Influencing debit card profitability
Profitability
• Debit card usage replaces the other types of
transactions associated with account
operation
– Checks
– ATM
– OTC transactions
• Debit cards leverage the association global
interchange systems, which are well
established and extremely efficient
– This reduces the operating expenses of retail
banking
– This makes debit card transactions are generally
less expensive
Debit card revenues
1. Interchange revenues
individual individual
Borrow
Lend funds
funds
financial sector
family family
Credit card loan
A. Credit underwriting
B. Application processing
policies.
B. Application Processing
– Application form
Application decision process
Processing of an Application: Issues of
Pertinence
2. Co-applicant data
3. Credit experience
1. Judgmental factors
2. In an objective fashion
using a credit scoring Credit
Judgmental
system
scoring
factors
system
1. Exercising Judgment
Types of
credit
scoring
models
Generic Customized
models models
Generic Credit Scoring
– Declined
application review
– Its reduces costs
• These are:
1. First transaction cash advances
2. First-payment defaults
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
1
Introduction
Foreign exchange or FOREX is not
traded on organized exchanges.
Thus the market is purely OTC
It is a network of dealers which is
primarily dominated by commercial
banks.
In India all dealers have to obtain
prior approval from the RBI.
Such dealers are called Authorized
Dealers or ADs.
2
FOREX Quotes
The exchange rate for a currency
is the amount of that currency that
can be exchanged per unit of
another currency.
In other words it is the price of one
currency in terms of another
currency.
3
Two Quoting Conventions
Think of an asset such as a share.
We usually quote the price as Rs
100 per share.
We can also quote it as .10 shares
for Rs 10.
However we always quote as units of
currency per unit of the asset and not
as units of the asset per unit of the
currency.
4
Conventions (Cont…)
The difference in the case of
FOREX is that we are quoting the
price of one currency (which is also
an asset), in terms of the price of
another currency.
Thus we can quote in terms of
Rupees per Dollar or equivalently
in terms of Dollars per Rupee.
5
Direct Quotes
If the price of the foreign currency
is quoted as the number of units of
the Domestic currency per unit of
the Foreign currency, it is called a
Direct Quote.
For example Rs 43.75 per dollar is an
illustration of a direct quote.
6
Currency Symbols
Before we proceed let us list the
internationally accepted symbols of
various currencies.
Australian Dollar – AUD
Canadian Dollar – CAD
Indian Rupee – INR
Japanese Yen – JPY
Pound Sterling – GBP
Singapore Dollar – SGD
Swiss Franc – CHF
US Dollar - USD
7
Direct Quotes (Cont…)
Consider a quote of INR 43.75 per
USD.
If the rate increases to INR 44.25
per USD
It implies that every dollar is worth
more in terms of Rupees
And we would say that the dollar has
appreciated or the rupee has
depreciated.
8
Direct Quotes (Cont…)
However if the rate were to decline to
INR 43.20 per USD
Then each dollar would be worth less in
terms of rupees and we would say that
The dollar has depreciated or that the
rupee has appreciated.
9
Direct Quotes (Cont…)
Thus in the case of direct quotes:
An increase in the quoted value
signals an appreciating foreign
currency and a depreciating domestic
currency
A decrease in the quoted value
signals a depreciating foreign
currency and an appreciating
domestic currency
10
Indirect Quotes
We can also quote an exchange
rate as the number of units of
foreign currency per unit of the
domestic currency.
For instance if we have a quote of
USD 2.25 per INR 100, it would be
an indirect quote in India.
11
Indirect Quotes (Cont…)
If the rate were to increase to USD
2.40 per INR 100, it would imply
that
The dollar has depreciated or the
rupee has appreciated.
Thus an increase in the value
connotes a depreciating foreign
currency and an appreciating home
currency.
12
Indirect Quotes (Cont…)
If the rate were to decline to USD
2.10 per INR 100, it would imply an
appreciating dollar and a
depreciating rupee.
Thus a decline in the rate connotes an
appreciating foreign currency and a
depreciating home currency.
13
Confusion
It appears that an increase in the
rate connotes an appreciating
foreign currency if rates are
quoted directly and a depreciating
foreign currency if they are quoted
indirectly.
How do we avoid errors?
14
Numerator/Denominator
Always think in terms of numerator and
denominator currencies.
In a direct quote in India like INR 43.75
per USD, the rupee is the numerator
currency and the dollar is the
denominator currency.
If the rate increases it means that the
numerator currency has depreciated.
Else if it decreases it means that the
numerator currency has appreciated.
15
Numerator/Denominator
(Cont…)
In the case of an indirect quote like
USD 2.25 per INR 100, the dollar is
the numerator currency and the
rupee is the denominator currency.
Once again an increase in the rate
would mean that the numerator
currency which is the dollar has
depreciated.
16
Numerator/Denominator
(Cont…)
On the other hand, a decline in the
value would mean that the
numerator currency has
appreciated.
17
Direct or Indirect
Until 1993 banks in India were
using the indirect quotation
system.
Subsequently they have switched
to the direct method.
We will use the direct method for
most of our illustrations.
18
Purchase & Sale
Whenever we say buying or selling
rates we always mean it from the
dealer’s perspective.
When rates are quoted there will
be two rates, one for buying and
the other for selling.
19
Purchase & Sale (Cont…)
Consider the Direct Quoting
system.
43.25/43.70 INR/USD
For the dealer purchase involves
conversion of foreign exchange
into rupees.
20
Illustration-1
BHEL has exported turbines to
Libya and has received a check for
10 MM USD.
When it presents it to its bank
asking for the equivalent amount
in rupees to be credited to its
account, it constitutes a purchase
transaction.
21
Illustration-2
An NRI from Dubai has remitted
10000 USD to his relative in Kochi.
When the bank converts it to the
rupee equivalent and credits the
relative’s account it constitutes a
purchase.
22
Purchase/Sales (Cont…)
Conversion of domestic currency
into foreign currency by a bank will
be termed as a sale of foreign
exchange.
23
Illustration-3
Tata Steel has imported iron ore
from Australia and needs to pay
the party in Sydney.
It therefore requests SBI to
prepare a check for 50 MM AUD
and debit its current account.
This constitutes a sale for the
bank.
24
Bid and Ask
For a given currency, the price at which
the dealer is willing to buy the currency
will obviously be lower than the price at
which he is willing to sell it.
So in the direct quotation system the
bid will be lower than the ask.
For instance, a quote for USD may read:
43.2400-43.3100.
25
Bid and Ask (Cont…)
However in the indirect system, the bid
will be greater than the ask.
For instance a quote for USD may read:
2.2200-2.1500
This means that when the AD is buying
dollars he will give 100 rupees for every
2.22 dollars purchased.
However when he is selling USD he will
charge 100 rupees for every 2.15
dollars sold.
26
Arbitrage
Arbitrage in the FOREX market can
arise on various counts.
We have situations conforming to
what are called:
One point arbitrage
Two point arbitrage
Triangular or three point arbitrage
Covered interest arbitrage
27
One Point Arbitrage
ICICI bank is quoting: 43.2400-
43.3100
SBI is quoting: 43.3500-43.4200
Consider the following strategy:
Borrow 433,100 rupees
By 10000 USD from ICICI.
Sell 10000 USD to SBI
Receive 433,500 from SBI
There is an arbitrage profit of INR
400. 28
One Point Arbitrage
(Cont…)
Now consider the following quotes:
ICICI: 43.2400-43.3100
SBI: 43.3000-43.3700
Clearly arbitrage is not possible.
Or:
ICICI: 43.2400-43.3100
SBI: 43.1800-43.2500
Once again no arbitrage
29
One Point Arbitrage
(Cont…)
So to rule out arbitrage the quotes
of two banks must overlap by at
least one point.
What is a point, for most
currencies it is 1/10000 of the
domestic currency.
For instance a point in India is
0.0001 rupees.
30
Two Point Arbitrage
ICICI is quoting:
27.2500-27.3500 INR/SGD
DBS Singapore is quoting:
3.7000-3.7250 SGD/100 INR
This is an arbitrage opportunity
31
Two Point Arbitrage
(Cont…)
Consider the following strategy:
Borrow 10000 SGD and sell it to
ICICI.
You will get 272500 INR.
Sell this to DBS in Singapore in
return for: 3.7000 x 2725 =
10082.50
There is an arbitrage profit of
82.50 SGD. 32
Why Arbitrage?
Consider ICICI’s quote of:
27.2500-27.3500
When ICICI is quoting 27.2500 for
buying 1 SGD it is effectively
saying that it is willing to sell 1 INR
for
1/27.2500 = 0.036697 Ξ 3.6697
SGD/100INR
33
Why? (Cont…)
Similarly a quote of 27.3500 for
selling SGD amount to a quote of:
1/27.3500 = 3.6563 SGD/100INR
for buying rupees.
Thus 27.2500-27.3500 INR/SGD
corresponds to 3.6563-3.6697
SGD/100INR.
34
Why? (Cont…)
This does not overlap with 3.7000-
3.7250 which is what DBS is
quoting in Singapore.
Hence the potential for arbitrage.
Thus two-point arbitrage is nothing
but the logic of one point arbitrage
extended to two markets.
35
Triangular or Three-Point
Arbitrage
To do triangular arbitrage we need
three currencies.
Assume that Bank Mitsubishi is
offering the following rates:
75.2150-75.2750 JPY/AUD
150.2025-150.2925 JPY/USD
Citibank NYC is offering:
0.5220-0.5280 USD/AUD
36
Arbitrage Strategy
Borrow 752750 yen in Tokyo and
buy 10000 AUD.
Sell it in NYC for 5220 USD.
Sell the USD in Tokyo in return for
5220 x 150.2025 = 784057.05 JPY
Clearly there is an arbitrage profit
of:
784057.05 – 752750 = 31307.05
37
Arbitrage (Cont…)
Hence the condition required to
preclude arbitrage is that:
(JPY/AUD)ask ≥ (USD/AUD)bid x
(JPY/USD)bid
Similarly it can be shown that:
(JPY/AUD)bid ≤ (USD/AUD)ask x
(JPY/USD)ask
The LHS in the above expressions is the
natural rate for a currency.
The RHS represents the synthetic rate 38
Arbitrage (Cont…)
Thus the no arbitrage conditions
may be stated as:
The natural ask should be greater
than or equal to the synthetic ask.
The natural bid should be less than
or equal to the synthetic bid.
39
Forward Rates
Forward trading is very common in
foreign currency markets.
Although futures trading is very
active in certain countries,
particularly in the US, the volume
of trading in the forward market is
much higher than in the futures
market.
40
Forward Rates (Cont…)
The forward market is an OTC
market.
The majority of the participants are
commercial banks.
41
Forward Rates (Cont…)
In the case of direct quotes, if the
forward rate is greater than the
spot rate then the foreign currency
is said to be trading at a forward
premium.
However if the forward rate is less
than the spot rate, then the foreign
currency is said to be trading at a
forward discount. 42
Forward Rates (Cont…)
If the forward rate is equal to the
spot rate, then the currency is said
to be trading flat.
43
Illustration-1
Spot: 43.2500-43.2800 INR/USD
1 M Forward: 43.2650-43.3050
Obviously the US dollar is at a
forward premium.
44
Illustration-2:
Spot: 43.2500-43.2800
1 M Forward: 43.2250-43.2600
Obviously the US dollar is at a
forward discount.
45
Illustration-3
Spot: 43.2500-43.2800
1 M Forward: 43.2500-43.2800
The dollar is trading flat
46
Forward Rates (Cont…)
In the above cases the full forward rate
has been specified for both buying and
selling.
These are called Outright Forward
Rates.
However sometimes only the difference
between the spot rate and the forward
rate called the Forward Margin or the
Swap Points will be given.
47
Forward Rates (Cont…)
Consider the following data:
Spot: 43.2500-43.2800
Forward: 45/75
Obviously the forward figure
represents the swap points.
However we do not know whether
the dollar is at a premium or at a
discount.
48
Forward Rates (Cont…)
Thus should the swap points be
added to the spot rates or should
they be subtracted.
The point to remember is that the
spot market has the maximum
liquidity.
The further we go in time, the less
will be the liquidity and the higher
will be the spread.
49
Forward Rates (Cont…)
Hence when the swap points are
specified as a/b where a < b, then
adding the points will widen the
spread.
Thus a specification of a/b where a
< b indicates that the foreign
currency is at a forward premium
and that the points should
therefore be added to the spot 50
Forward Rates (Cont…)
In this case the rates would be:
Spot: 43.2500-43.2800
1 M Forward: 43.2545-43.2875
However what if the swap points
had been specified as 75/45.
In this case subtracting the swap
points from the spot rates will
widen the spread.
51
Forward Rates (Cont…)
Thus a quote of 75/45 indicates
that the foreign currency is at a
forward discount.
The corresponding forward rates
are:
43.2425-43.2755
52
Indirect Quotes
In the case of indirect quotes the
logic will have to be reversed.
In such cases the bid will be higher
than the ask.
Thus if the swap points are
specified as a/b where a < b, then
subtracting the points will widen
the spread.
53
Indirect Quotes (Cont…)
Thus while a/b where a < b does
indicate a forward premium, the points
must be subtracted in order to arrive at
the outright forward rates.
Similarly a/b where a > b indicates a
forward discount.
However the points will have to be
added in order to arrive at the outright
forward rates.
54
Merchant Rates &
Exchange Margins
Whenever a dealer buys or sells to
a client he will have to interact
with the Inter-bank market either
prior to the deal or subsequent to
it.
Consider a purchase transaction.
In this case after acquiring the
foreign currency from the client,
the dealer will have to sell it in the
inter-bank market. 55
Merchant…(Cont…)
Had it been a sale transaction, the
dealer would have had to acquire the
currency in the inter-bank market prior
to selling it to the client.
Clearly there has to be a relation
between the rates in the inter-bank
market and the rates quoted by the
dealer to the client, which are called
merchant rates.
56
Merchant…(Cont…)
Let us take a purchase transaction.
After the purchase the dealer will
have to dispose off the currency in
the inter-bank market.
The relevant rate is therefore the
bid in the inter-bank market.
Thus the Base Rate for purchase
transactions is the inter-bank bid.
57
Merchant…(Cont…)
If the dealer has to make a profit
on the deal, the bid price quoted
by the dealer has to be lower than
the bid in the inter-bank market.
Similarly in a sale transaction the
dealer has to acquire the currency
at the ask rate in the inter-bank
market before selling it to the
client. 58
Merchant…(Cont…)
The relevant base rate in this case
is the ask rate in the inter-bank
market.
In order for the dealer to make a
profit the ask rate quoted by him
must be higher than the inter-bank
ask rate.
The profit margins applied by the
dealer is known as the exchange 59
Merchant…(Cont…)
As should be obvious, in a
purchase transaction the exchange
margin will be subtracted from the
base rate before a buying rate is
quoted to the client.
In a sale transaction the exchange
margin will be added to the base
rate before a selling rate is quoted
to the client. 60
Illustration-1
The inter-bank rates on a given
day for the US dollar are:
44.2000-44.2500
An exporter has just received a
draft for USD 10000 which he then
presents to the bank.
The bank as a matter of policy
levies an exchange margin of
0.05%.
61
Illustration-1 (Cont…)
Given the fact that the dealer is
buying his base rate is the bid of
44.2000.
The rate quoted to the client will
therefore be:
44.2000(1 – 0.0005) = 44.1779
62
Illustration-2
The inter-bank rates on a given
day are as follows:
Spot: 44.2000-44.2500
1 M Forward: 125/75
A client comes to the bank seeking
to make an outward remittance of
10000 USD after one month.
63
Illustration-2 (Cont…)
The first step is to calculate the
outright one-month forward rates.
These are:
44.1875-44.2425
Since the AD is selling the relevant
rate is the ask which is 44.2425.
Assume that the exchange margin
is 0.08%.
64
Illustration-2 (Cont…)
The rate that will be charged to the
client will therefore be:
44.2425(1 + 0.0008) = 44.2779
65
Inter-bank Swap Deals
Banks regularly enter into deals
with each other where they either
buy spot and sell forward or vice-
versa or else buy forward for one
maturity and sell forward for
another maturity.
These are called Swap transactions
and Forward to Forward Swap
transactions respectively. 66
Swap Deals (Cont…)
Since banks routinely enter into such
deals with each other they ignore the
bid-ask spread implicit in the inter-bank
spot quote and focus solely on the
premium or discount applicable for a
forward trade with the required
maturity.
The following examples will illustrate
this.
67
Swap Deals…(Cont…)
The rates in the inter-bank market are
as follows.
Spot: 44.2000-44.2500
Forward: 125/75
ICICI Bank is selling spot to HDFC and
buying 1M forward.
The number of concern here is the
discount applicable for a one month
forward sale which is 75 points.
68
Swap Rates…(Cont…)
The spot rate chosen for the transaction
may be any rate between the current
quotes of 44.2000 and 44.2500.
Assume that a rate of 44.2200 is
chosen.
ICICI will therefore sell spot at this rate.
Since it is buying 1M forward and the
dollar is at a discount, the applicable
rate will be 44.2200 - .0075 = 44.2125.
69
Option Forwards
Sometimes while entering into a
forward contract the client may not
know the exact date on which he would
need to buy or sell.
For instance an importer is expecting a
shipment which is likely to arrive
between one to two months from now.
However he is not sure of the precise
date.
70
Option Forwards (Cont…)
The importer can in such cases
negotiate a forward contract with the
option to take delivery of the foreign
currency at any time between one to
two months from now.
The question is how should the bank
quote a rate.
Should it assume that the transaction
will take place one month later or
should it assume that it will take place
two months later.
71
Option Forwards (Cont…)
The AD will always assume that
the transaction will take place at
the worst possible time from his
point of view.
What is the worst possible
situation?
It would depend on:
Is the AD buying or selling
Is the currency at a premium or at a
discount 72
Illustration-1
Indian Rayon is importing
machinery and requires dollars
between two and three months
from now.
It wants a forward contract with an
option to buy at any time between
two and three months from now.
73
Illustration-1 (Cont…)
The inter-bank rates are:
Spot: 45.4500-45.8525
1M Forward: 45/85
2M Forward: 70/110
3M Forward: 110/155
74
Illustration-1 (Cont…)
The relevant rate in this case is the
selling rate since the dealer is
selling.
If the contract is completed after 2
months the applicable premium is
110 points.
However if it is completed after
three months the applicable
premium will be 155 points.
75
Illustration-1 (Cont…)
Since a premium is being charged,
the dealer will levy the higher of
the two amounts.
So the applicable rate for the
option forward will be:
45.8525 + 0.0155 = 45.8680
76
Rule
In a sale transaction where a
premium is applicable, charge the
premium for the latest date of
delivery.
77
Illustration-2
Assume that the spot rate is the
same as earlier but that the dollar
is trading at a discount.
Spot: 45.4500-45.8525
1M: 75/35
2M: 115/75
3M: 140/95
78
Illustration-2 (Cont…)
If the transaction is completed after two
months the applicable discount will be
75 points.
Whereas if it is completed after three
months, the applicable discount will be
95 points.
Since the dealer is giving a discount he
will give the lower of the two values.
So the applicable rate will be:
45.8525 – 0.0075 = 45.8450
79
Rule
For a sale transaction where the
foreign currency is trading at a
discount, the rule is allow the
discount applicable for the earliest
date of delivery.
80
Illustration-3
A party has exported a
consignment and will be paid in
dollars at a point in time between
one and two months from today.
The rates in the inter-bank market
are:
Spot: 45.3500-45.7320
1M: 35/80
2M: 65/115
81
Illustration-3 (Cont…)
The relevant base rate here is the
bid of 45.3500.
If the transaction occurs after one
month the applicable premium will
be 35 points.
However if it occurs after two
months the applicable premium
will be 65 points.
82
Illustration-3 (Cont…)
Since the AD is buying, he will give
the lower of the two premia.
So the applicable rate in this case
will be:
45.3500 + 0.0035 = 45.3535
83
Rule
So the rule for a purchase transaction
where the currency is quoting at a
premium is:
Offer the premium for the earliest
delivery date.
If the currency had been quoting at a
discount, the rule would have been:
Offer the discount for the latest date of
delivery.
84
Covered Interest Arbitrage
The strategies that result in the no-
arbitrage condition for foreign
exchange forward contracts are
called Covered Interest Arbitrage
strategies.
85
Cash and Carry
Consider the following information:
Spot rate: 25.2025 INR/SGD
3M Forward rate: 25.5075 INR/SGD
Interest rate for 3M loan in India:
7.5% p.a.
Interest rate for 3M loan in Singapore:
4.5% p.a.
86
Cash and Carry (Cont…)
Borrow 252025 INR and buy 10000
SGD.
Invest it in Singapore at 4.5%.
Future value = 10000(1.01125) =
10112.50 SGD
At the outset go short in a forward
contract to sell this amount after 3
months.
Proceeds in INR = 10112.50 x 25.5075
= 257944.59
87
Cash and Carry (Cont…)
Amount due in India =
252025(1.01875) = 256750.46
Arbitrage profit = 257944.59 –
256750.46
= 1194.13 INR
88
Reverse Cash and Carry
Consider the following information:
Spot: 25.2025
3M Forward: 25.3075
3M rate in India = 7.5% p.a.
3M rate in Singapore = 4.5% p.a.
89
Reverse Cash and Carry
Borrow 10000 dollars in Singapore.
Convert it into 252025 INR.
Invest it in India.
Future value = 252025(1.01875) =
256750.46
Amount due in Singapore =
10000(1.01125) = 10112.50
90
Reverse Cash and Carry
Go long in forward contract at the
outset to buy this amount.
Cost = 25.3075 x (10112.50) =
255922.09
Arbitrage profit = 256750.46 –
255922.09
= 828.37 INR
91
Symbolic No-Arbitrage
Condition
Spot: S INR/FCR
M Period Forward: F INR/FCR
Indian M-period rate = id
Foreign M-period rate = if
No arbitrage requires that:
S(1+id) = F(1+if)
So: F = S x (1+id)
______
(1+if)
92
Interest Rate Parity
This is called the interest rate
parity condition.
It can be written:
F–S id - if
_______ = ________ ≈ id - if
S (1+if)
93
Reality Check
What looks like an arbitrage opportunity
in practice may not be exploitable.
One reason is the presence of
transactions cost.
The issue is therefore can we make a
profit after taking such costs into
account.
Secondly a country may not permit free
movement of currencies across borders.
94
Reality Check (Cont…)
Thus a perceived opportunity may
not be exploitable in practice.
In fact even a perception that
exchange controls may be
imposed may preclude
arbitrageurs from trying to take
advantage of such opportunities.
Take the case of the arbitrageur
who buys and invests 10000 95
Reality Check (Cont…)
His arbitrage profit is realizable
subject to the condition that he is
able to repatriate the amount from
Singapore after 3 months.
The other key factor is the tax
regulations in the two countries.
The issue of relevance is the
possibility of a post-tax profit.
96
Futures Markets
The biggest futures exchange for
foreign exchange is the International
Monetary Market (IMM) at the Chicago
Mercantile Exchange (CME).
Currencies traded include:
Australian Dollars; Canadian Dollars,
Brazilian Reals; Euro; Japanese Yen;
Pound Sterling; Mexican Peso; NZ
Dollar; Swiss Francs
Russian Rubles; South African Rands 97
Illustration on Hedging using
Futures Contracts
Eli Lilly is scheduled to receive 25 MM
Swiss Francs after 2 months.
The worry is obviously that the dollar
will appreciate and that since the
invoice is denominated in Swiss Francs,
the proceeds in dollars may be less than
anticipated.
Since Swiss Francs have to be sold, the
company needs to go short in futures.
Assume that it uses 3 month contracts. 98
Illustration (Cont…)
On the IMM each Swiss Francs
futures contract is for 125,000
CHF.
So for 25 MM CHF
25,000,000
_____________ = 200 contracts will
be
125,000 required.
The rates in the futures market
99
Illustration (Cont…)
Obviously the applicable rate is the
bid of 0.5150.
Assume that the rates after two
months are as follows:
Spot: 0.4985-0.5025
1M Futures: 0.4985-0.5025
If the company had not hedged, it
would have had to sell 25 MM CHF
at 0.4985 which would have
yielded 12,462,500USD 100
Illustration (Cont…)
Since it has hedged it will receive:
25,000,000 x (0.5150 – 0.5025) =
312,500 as a profit from the
futures market.
The proceeds from the cash
market = 12,462,500
Total proceeds = 12,775,000
101
Illustration (Cont…)
Effective rate: 12,775,000
__________ = 0.5110
25,000,000
102
Illustration-2
An airline in the US has ordered parts
from the US worth 4MM pounds.
The payment is due after one month.
The worry is that the dollar will
depreciate for if it does, the payment in
dollars will go up.
Since pounds have to be acquired the
firm needs to go long in a futures
contract.
Assume that two month contracts are 103
Illustration-2 (Cont…)
Current rates are:
Spot: 1.4025-1.4075
2M Forward: 1.4120-1.4190
Assume that the rates after one
month are:
Spot: 1.4150-1.4220
1M Forward: 1.4250-1.4335
104
Illustration-2 (Cont…)
If the company had not hedged it
would have paid
4,000,000 x 1.4220 = 5,688,000
The effective cost if it hedges can
be calculated as follows.
Buy spot at 5,688,000
Profit from futures =
4,000,000(1.4250-1.4190) =
24000 105
Illustration-2 (Cont…)
Total payment in dollars =
5688000 - 24000 = 5664000
Effective exchange rate:
5664000
__________ = 1.4160
4000000
106
FOREX Options
Foreign currency options are
traded on a number of exchanges.
In the U.S. the Philadelphia exchange
is a major centre for such contracts.
In addition to exchange traded
options, customized contracts are
traded by banks and other
financial institutions.
107
Hedging
For a party who wants to hedge a
foreign currency exposure, options
provide an alternative to forward
contracts.
108
Illustration
An Indian exporter is expecting to be
paid in pounds after a month.
His worry is that the pound will
depreciate and that he may receive
fewer rupees than anticipated.
He can hedge by buying put options on
Sterling.
He can then be sure that the value of the
Sterling will never be below the exercise
price.
109
Illustration (Cont…)
Similarly, a party who is due to
make a payment in Sterling at a
future date will be afraid that the
Sterling may appreciate.
One way for it to hedge is by
buying calls on Sterling.
This way it can ensure that the
currency will not cost more than the
exercise price.
110
Part-08
PBIT 1,750
Interest 150
PBT 1,600
Dividends 220
Retained 900
Earnings
The Income Statement (Cont…)
• The income statement shows the profit or
loss earned by a company during a
specified period.
• Assume for instance that the financial year
runs from 1 January 2004 till 31 December
2004.
– So every item of revenue or expenditure that
is shown in the income statement should
pertain to 2004.
The Income Statement (Cont…)
• For instance
– If the firm were to have made an advance
payment for 2005
– Or were to have received a payment in
advance
• Such items would not be reflected in the statement
for the year 2004.
– Similarly if an item of income of expenditure
that is received/paid in 2004 pertains to 2003
• The it should be reflected in the P&L for 2003 and
not during 2004.
The Accruals Concept
• The principle of recognizing revenues and
expenditure in the period in which they are
earned or incurred, irrespective of when
they are actually received or paid
– Is called the Accruals Concept
Items on the Income Statement
• The sales revenue reflects the amount to
be received from customers in return for
the provision of goods and services during
the year
– Such revenue will be reflected as soon as the
goods are sold or the services rendered
– Irrespective of when the payment is received
Items…(Cont…)
• Thus a company may show substantial
revenues by way of sales and
consequently commensurate profits
– Even though it may have little to show by way
of a cash balance
Items…(Cont…)
• The cost of goods sold is subtracted from
the sales revenue.
• The cost of sales comprises of Direct
Costs
– Or the costs that are incurred in connection
with the production of the good or service
Items…(Cont…)
• For instance in the case of a physical
good, such costs would comprise of
– Cost of materials
– Wages paid to the labour force
– The overhead costs associated with running
the factory
Items…(Cont…)
• Note that Indirect Costs such as
advertising expenses and salaries paid to
white collared professionals will not be
included in the Cost of Sales
– These would be reflected under other
expenses
Items…(Cont…)
• The first measure of a firm’s profit for a
year is the Gross Profit for the year
– It is the difference between the Sales
Revenue and the Cost of Sales
– It clearly indicates whether the sales revenues
were adequate to cover the cost of production
– All other expenses incurred during the year
are paid out of the Gross Profits.
Items…(Cont…)
• In order to calculate the Net Profit for the
year, other expenses must be subtracted
from the Gross Profit.
• The main items of other expenses are
– Distribution costs
– Selling costs
– Administrative costs
• Notice that interest expenses are not
included
Items…(Cont…)
• While dealing with expenses
– Ensure that only the expenditure pertaining to
the financial year is taken into account
Examples
• For instance in the month of September
the firm may have paid an insurance
premium for the next half year
– The entire amount cannot be treated as an
expense for the year
– Only the amount that pertains to the
remaining three months in the year ought to
be considered.
• Failure to do so will understate the profits for the
current year
• And will overstate the profits for the following year
Examples (Cont…)
• Similarly the electricity bills may have
been paid only until 31 October 2004.
– If so the amount for the remaining two months
must be estimated and reflected.
• Thus there could arise situations where
the expenses that are yet to be paid may
have to be subjectively estimated.
Items…(Cont…)
• The Profit Before Interest and Tax (PBIT)
is known as the Operating Profit for the
year.
• This is the measure of profit over which
the operational managers of the firm can
exercise control.
– For, in the case of items such as interest and
taxes, which are yet to be factored in, they
have no control.
Items…(Cont…)
• The interest payable for the year is the
amount that is assessed on all the
borrowings of the firm. These include:
– Bonds and debentures
– Term loans from banks
– Overdrafts on current accounts
• Subtracting the interest for the year gives
the Profit Before Tax
– When the tax bill is deducted from this, we get
the net profit for the year.
Items…(Cont…)
• It is the net profit for the year that actually
belongs to the shareholders.
– The net profit can be either paid out in the
form of cash dividends
– Or else it can be retained within the firm
• In practice the entire net profits will not be
paid out as dividends
– A part will be retained to finance planned
investment and facilitate projected growth.
Items…(Cont…)
• In practice shareholders may have reason
to prefer that the firm retains net profits
rather than distribute them in the form of
cash dividends.
Items…(Cont…)
– This is because dividend income is typically
clubbed with other income and is
consequently taxed at the regular income tax
rate.
– On the other hand retained earnings will
manifest themselves as enhanced share
values in the market and will lead to capital
gains when the shares are sold.
• Capital gains, especially if it is long term in nature
will attract a lower tax rate.
Question
• How is it that loss making firms declare
dividends in practice.
– The reason is that they have retained
earnings from operations in preceding years.
– Such funds can be used to pay dividends.
Balance Sheet
• What is a balance sheet?
– It is a financial statement that shows
• The things of value that a company owns called
the Assets
• As well as what it owes to others called its
Liabilities
• The sum total of assets must match the
sum total of liabilities
– That is, the balance sheet must always
balance
Balance Sheet (Cont…)
• Every increase in an item on the liabilities
side must lead to
– A reduction in another item on the liabilities
side or
– To an increase in an item on the asset side
• Every decrease in an item on the liabilities
side must lead to
– An increase in another item on the liabilities
side
– Or to a decrease in an item on the assets side
Balance Sheet (Cont…)
• Thus the two sides of a balance sheet
must always balance
– This is a feature of the Double Entry System
of bookkeeping
• Every transaction has equivalent an simultaneous
impact on both sides of the balance sheet
Balance Sheet (Cont…)
• Unlike the income statement that captures
the activity during a specific period. The
balance sheet presents the state of affairs
as of a point in time.
– Thus the balance sheet is a snapshot of the
business on a particular day
– Typically the balance sheet is presented as of
the last day of the financial year
Illustration of an Asset Side
ITEM Amount in ‘000
Fixed Assets
Intangible Assets 200
Tangible Assets 3,200
Investments 50
Total Fixed Assets 3,450
Current Assets
Stock 500
Debtors 500
Cash at hand 150
Total Current Assets 1,150
Total Assets 4,600
Illustration of a Liabilities Side
ITEM `000
Shareholders’ Funds
Paid-up Capital 2,800
Reserves and Surplus 800
Total 3,600
Long Term Loans 600
Current Liabilities
Creditors 400
Total Liabilities 4,600
Capital Expenditure
• When money is invested in a business
– It can be used for the acquisition of assets
that are likely to be with the business for
along period of time
– Or else it can used to pay for items that will be
used quickly in the day to day running of the
business
• The first category of expenditure is called
capital expenditure and the assets so
acquired are termed as Fixed Assets
Capital Expenditure (Cont…)
• Such assets include:
– Buildings
– Machinery
– Equipment
– Motor Vehicles
Revenue Expenditure
• Money that is used to defray day to day
running expenditure is termed as revenue
expenditure
• Items include:
– Wages
– Salaries
– Telephone bills
– Stock intended for resale
Fixed Assets
• Such assets are going to be with a
business for more than a year, typically for
several years
– They may be sub classified as
• Tangible fixed assets
• Intangible fixed assets
Fixed Assets (Cont…)
• Tangible assets have a physical identity
• These include:
– Land
– Buildings
– Machinery
Fixed Assets (Cont…)
• Intangible assets have no physical identity
but nevertheless have value for the firm
• These include
– Patents
– Trademarks
Depreciation
• Take the case of a physical asset that is
going to be used for a period of 5 years
• The question is
– Is its fair to charge the entire cost of the asset
as an expense in the income statement in the
year of acquisition?
– Quite obviously it is not
– For if we were to do so
• Profits for the year will be understated
• Profits for subsequent years will be overstated
Depreciation (Cont…)
• In such cases the original cost of the asset
will be spread over the years during which
the firm will derive benefits.
Example
• Suppose a firm buys a machine worth
$50,000 that is going to be used over a
period of 5 years.
• Assume that the salvage value after 5
years is likely to be $5,000
• One way of dealing with depreciation is to
charge for the benefits accrued, on a
uniform basis for the years during witch it
will provide value
Example (Cont…)
• In this case, the cost per annum will be
calculated as:
50,000 – 5,000
_______________ = $ 9,000 per annum
5
• This is called Straight Line depreciation
– In this case the annual depreciation charge
per annum is $9,000
Depreciation (Cont…)
• The impact on the balance sheet will be as
follows
– For the first year
• 9,000 will be shown as an expense on the income
statement
• The balance 41,000 will be shown on the balance
sheet at the end of the year as the net book value
of the machine, under the category of tangible
fixed assets.
Depreciation (Cont…)
– In the second year another 9,000 will be
charged to the income statement
– And 32,000 will be shown as an asset on the
balance sheet at the end of the year
– At the end of 5 years the value on the balance
sheet will be the residual value of $5,000
Depreciation (Cont…)
• Yet another method of calculating the
depreciation is called the Written Down
Value method.
– In this case a fixed percentage of the residual
value of the asset as at the beginning of the
year, will be treated as an expense for the
year.
• Here is an illustration for depreciating an
asset worth $50,000 on a WDV basis at a
rate of 20% per annum for 5 years.
Illustration
Year Depreciation Residual Value
1 10,000 40,000
2 8,000 32,000
3 6,400 25,600
4 5,120 20,480
5 4,096 16,384
Illustration (Cont…)
• In the case of the WDV method the
residual value will always be positive
– It will tend towards zero but will never become
zero.
Amortization
• The principle behind amortization is similar
to depreciation
– But the term is used in connection with
intangible fixed assets
• Take the case of a pharmaceuticals
company with a license that is expected to
be of value over a period of 10 years
– It may decide to amortize the cost over a
period of 10 years on a straight line basis
Amortization (Cont…)
• The effect of amortization will be identical
to that of depreciation
– That is the cost of the license will be spread
over the income statements for the years
during which it is likely to be of benefit to the
firm.
Revaluation of Fixed Assets
• Some assets may actually increase in
value rather than depreciate.
– For instance the value of property may go up
over time
– In such cases the firm may have to have the
property revalued
– If so, depreciation in subsequent years must
be based on the revalued figure
Revaluation (Cont…)
• This is why certain balance sheets have a
statement
`Tangible fixed assets are shown at Cost or
Valuation, less accumulated depreciation’
• What this means is that the value of the
asset on the balance sheet is the historical
cost or the revalued figure, less the
amount charged by way of depreciation.
Investments
• A firm may buy securities issued by
another company and hold them on a long
term basis
– The value of such securities would be shown
on the balance sheet under the category of
fixed assets as `Investments’.
Working Capital
• The part of an organization’s money that is
not invested in fixed assets will be
invested in Working Capital.
• Money that is invested in Working Capital
actually flows through a cycle.
– Cash Raw Materials WIP
Finished Goods Credit sales
Cash
Working Capital (Cont…)
• In certain businesses it may take a long
while for cash to come back as cash after
moving around the cycle.
– However cash will have to be pumped into the
cycle on a daily basis
– Unless cash is quickly returned back to the
firm at the end of the cycle, it operations will
come to a grinding halt.
– Thus it is essential to control the cycle and
keep the cash moving quickly.
Working Capital (Cont…)
• Some relief is provided to the business
because of the willingness of other parties
to provide materials on credit.
– For instance raw materials may be acquired
on credit and pumped into the cycle.
– To this extent the need for cash will be
reduced.
Current Assets
• One of the key components of current
assets is the goods in stock
• Stock may be subdivided into three
categories:
– Raw materials
– Work in progress
– Finished goods
Raw Materials
• Raw materials have to be valued at the
lower of cost or market value.
• Market value represents the amount for
which the materials can be sold less any
amount that has to be spent to complete
the sale.
• But the issue is that the same item may
have been purchased at different points in
time at varying prices.
Illustration
• A firm procured raw materials at
– $3.00 per unit in March
– $4.50 in July
– $6.00 in November
• The question is:
– If we are going to value at cost, which of the
three prices are we going to use?
– In practice one of two approaches is used
Illustration (Cont…)
• The first is called First In First Out or
FIFO.
– That is the stock should be valued at the price
paid for the most recent purchase
• The alternative is called the Weighted
Average Method
– As an illustration assume that the items have
been procured as per the following schedule.
Illustration (Cont…)
Price # of Units
3.00 200
4.50 300
6.00 500
Illustration (Cont…)
• Assume that 400 units are in stock at the
end of the financial year.
– As per FIFO the units will be valued at $6.00
each.
– As per the Weighted Average method the
valuation will take place as follows
3 x 200 + 4.50 x 300 + 6 x 500
__________________________ = 4.95
1,000
Illustration (Cont…)
• The value of the 400 units that are in stock
will be taken to be:
400 x 4.95 = $ 1,980
• The firm can choose whichever method it
considers appropriate
– But once a method is chosen it cannot
repeatedly be changed
Work in Process
• To value work in progress at cost, we
have to determine the value of:
– the materials that have gone into the
production of the item
– the wages incurred in the process of
manufacture
– and a reasonable charge for overheads
Work in Progress (Cont…)
• Since wages and overheads are being
factored in
– A unit of the semi-finished product will have a
higher value than a unit of raw material
• A relevant question is:
– Should WIP be valued at its net market
value?
Work in Progress (Cont…)
• Answer:
– Selling WIP is very difficult compared to
selling raw materials
– Typically the market value will be lower than
what it is worth to the firm
• The rationale used in practice is that the
firm is not in the business of selling WIP
– Its intention is to process the goods further
and convert them to the finished product.
– Thus WIP is valued on the basis of the cost
allocated by the firm and not on the basis of
its realizable market value.
Finished Goods
• They are valued at the lower of cost or
market value.
Debtors
• It is not difficult to compute the amount
that is owed to a business.
• The problem is to determine how much of
it will actually be received.
– If a business will know for sure that a party will
not pay, it will write off the amount as a bad
debt.
Debtors ( Cont…)
– Usually management will also know that a
percentage of what is outstanding is unlikely
to be recovered although it may not know for
certain as to which specific party or parties
may default.
– Thus it is a common practice to make a
provision for doubtful debts, in addition to
writing off bad debts.
Pre-payments
• Take the case of a firm that has paid
insurance premium for an entire year on 1
October.
– Obviously 75% of the amount is for the
forthcoming year and is a prepayment.
– The amount of the pre-payment is an asset
• Since the business can function for another 9
months without paying any additional insurance
premium.
Current Liabilities
• A liability is an amount that is owed by the
firm.
• A current liability is an amount that is
falling due within one year.
• We will look at two items
– Bank loans & Overdrafts
– Accruals
Bank Loans and Overdrafts
• Bank loans which are due after a year will
be shown as a long-term liability.
– But if a loan is scheduled to mature within the
current financial year, then it should be shown
as a current liability.
– A bank overdraft is a like a long-term loan
because it represents a revolving line of
credit.
• But a bank can recall it at any point in time.
• Consequently it is considered to be a current
liability.
Accruals
• If bills for an item of expenditure are still
pending, like telephone charges, then an
estimate of the amount has to be treated
as an expense while calculating the profit
for the year.
– The amount, till is paid, will be classified as a
current liability.
Goodwill
• This item appears on the asset side of
certain balance sheets.
• It arises in the following connection.
– When a business is acquired by a party, the
buyer will typically pay more than the book
value of the assets acquired.
– The extra amount that is paid for intangible
assets such as the reputation of the acquired
firm is called Goodwill.
• Goodwill is an intangible fixed asset.
• Its cost will be amortized over a period of time.
– The balance will be reflected on the balance sheet.
Capitalization of Costs
• When an item of expenditure is
capitalized, it means that the entire
expense is not written off.
– Rather a portion of its is treated as capital
expenditure and is shown on the balance
sheet along with other fixed assets.
– It is amortized every year and is thus written
off over a period of time.
Capitalization…(Cont…)
• A cost can be capitalized if it can be
shown that the expenditure that is incurred
will provide benefits in future years.
• A typical item that is capitalized is interest.
– Sometimes the interest that is paid on funds
borrowed to acquire a fixed asset is not
charged against the profit for the year.
– Instead it is added to the value of the asset
and the total amount is depreciated over the
life of the asset.
Capitalization…(Cont…)
• Other items that may be capitalized
include:
– Expenses included in developing software
– Cost of setting up an Internet site
The Cash Flow Statement
• Cash planning and cash management are
vital facets of the process of running a
business.
• A sound, potentially profitable business
may come to a grinding halt because of a
temporary shortage of cash.
– In such cases unless an external loan can be
arranged the survival of the business itself
may be at stake.
The Cash Flow …(Cont…)
• Prudent management requires anticipation
of cash requirements and making
provisions for the same.
• A cash flow statement is an integral part of
the books of account.
– It enables the user to assess the
• Amount
• Timing
• And uncertainty
– Of an organization’s cash flows during a financial
year.
Why?
• There are a number of reasons why a
profitable business may be low on cash
– Profits may have been reinvested in building
up stocks
– Sales may be in form of credit sales
– Cash may have been invested in fixed assets
• If so the expenditure would not be fully reflected in
the income statement because the assets would
be depreciated over a period of time.
• So profits may be high while cash balances are
low.
Illustration
ITEM `000
Net cash flow from operations 975
Return on investments and (75)
servicing of finance
Tax paid (225)
Capital expenditure (400)
275
Equity dividend paid (150)
Net cash inflow before financing 125
Financing (25)
Increase in cash 100
Net Cash Flow From Operations
• This is the cash generated by the day-to-
day activities of the business.
– It can be calculated by determining the cash
received from the customers during the year
less any cash paid for supplies and services.
Returns on investments and
servicing of Finance
• This would include:
– Dividends from shares and
– Interest from bonds
That the firm is holding as investments
Less
– Any interest on loans taken by the firm
• In the illustration the figure is negative
– It signifies a debt servicing burden
Tax Paid
• It is the actual amount of cash that is paid
to the tax authorities during the year
• This need not be equal to the tax liability
that is reflected in the income statement
– This is because a portion of the previous
year’s tax bill may be paid in the current year
– Or else payment of a portion of the current
year’s bill may be postponed to the next fiscal.
Capital Expenditure
• Refers to the net addition to fixed assets
– It reflects the assets bought during the year
by paying in cash
Less
– The cash that is received on account of the
sale of old assets
Equity Dividends Paid
• This need not be the same as the
declared dividend for the year
– This is because a portion of the dividends
declared in the previous financial year may be
paid this year
And/or
– A portion of the current year’s dividends may
not be paid by the end of this financial year
Financing
• These are the cash flows arising on
account of sources of capital
– The term includes inflows from the issue of
shares and bonds
Less
– Any outflows on account of
– Redemption of bonds
– Or buyback of shares
Cash Forecasts
• The cash flow statement in the annual
accounts helps external parties to monitor
the ability of the firm to generate cash.
• But its of little use to managers who are
trying to ensure that the business does not
run into a cash crunch.
Cash Forecasts (Cont…)
• The internal planning document that is
used for forecasting future cash
requirements is called a Cash Forecast.
– It will show the cash effects of all decisions
taken by the management.
– It can give advance warning of potential cash
problems so that managers can be prepared
for all contingencies.
Cash Forecast (Cont…)
• There are four possible cash positions that
could arise
• Each will demand a different course of
action.
• These are:
– Short-Term Deficit
– Long-Term Deficit
– Short-Term Surplus
– Long-Term Surplus
Short-Term Deficit
• Possible corrective actions include:
– Arranging of a bank overdraft
– Reduction of debtors
– Reduction of stocks
– Increase of creditors
Long-Term Deficit
• Possible corrective actions include:
– Raising long term finance such as a loan
– Issuance of additional shares
Short-Term Surplus
• Possible actions include
– Making short-term investments
– Increase debtors
– Increase stocks
– Pay creditors and avail of a discount
Long-Term Surplus
• Possible actions include:
– Expand or diversify operations
– Replace or increase fixed assets
Cash Forecast (Cont…)
• Thus the type of action that is taken by the
management will depend not only on
whether a surplus or a deficit is expected
but also on how long the situation is
expected to last.
• For instance it would not be prudent to
issue bonds or raise a term loan
– If the deficit is expected to last only for a few
months.
Illustration
Item Cash Flow In `000 For The Month Of
Receipts
Others 15 15 15 15 15 15
Payments
Materials 75 75 80 80 60 60
Labor 45 45 45 45 45 45
O/H 35 35 35 35 35 35
1
Introduction
2
Introductio
n
Introduction
All debt markets have a common
feature
On one hand we have On the other hand we
parties ready to borrow have parties willing to
by issuing securities lend in the process of
acquiring securities
capital needs 3
Introductio
n
Purpose of borrowing
4
Introductio
n
Types of financial assets
short-term securities
5
Introductio
n
Term to maturity
Loans in the money market have an
original term to maturity of <1 year
8
Example
Disbursements must be
made throughout the When tax revenues arrive
year to meet expenses the government will be
such as Wages, Salaries, temporarily flush with
Office supplies, Fuel funds
costs At such points in time it
will enter the money
market as a lender
9
Example
Example – Business
11
Example
Example – Business
12
Introductio
n
Why the attention?
Why are we so concerned about short-
term transactions?
Money is an extremely perishable
commodity
When idle cash is not invested there is an
opportunity cost - interest income is
foregone
Income that is lost is lost forever
When large amounts of funds are involved,
the income that is lost from not profitably
investing idle funds for even a day can be 13
Introductio
n
Example
A firm has 12MM dollars available
overnight.
Assume interest rate @ 12% p.a.
Assume the year has 360 days
A common assumption in money markets
If money is kept idle the lost income will
be:
12,000,000 x 0.12 x (1/360) = $4,000
If the money were to remain idle for a
14
Introductio
n
Borrowers & Lenders
It is very difficult to classify an
economic entity as a borrower or a
lender.
The same institutions frequently operate on
both sides of the market
E.g. Citibank
Borrower Lender
It will borrow regularly At the same time it will
in the money market by be making short term
way of Certificates of loans to corporate
Deposit, borrowings of borrowers
Federal Funds etc. 15
Introductio
n
Borrowers & Lenders
Borrower Lender
Frequently a corporation will Only to come back into
borrow millions of dollars on the market as a lender a
a single day few days hence due to a
sudden upsurge in cash
Institutions that are presentreceipts
on both sides of the
market include Large banks, Finance companies, Non-
financial corporations, Central Banks of countries
One institution that is usually
always on the demand side is
the government. At any point
in time the U.S. Treasury is
the largest borrower in the
world 16
Introductio
n
What do investors want?
unanticipated fashion. 17
Introductio
n
Liquidity
A liquid market is characterized by the
presence of a large number of buyers
and sellers at all time.
What would happen if the market were
to be illiquid?
If there is excess demand large buy orders
will send prices shooting up
If there is excess supply large sell orders
will send prices crashing down.
18
Introductio
n
Liquid market
In a liquid market large trades can be
executed without a major price impact
Liquid markets are characterized by low
bid-ask spreads
Since transactions are frequent dealers
can afford to operate with a smaller
profit per round trip transaction
Bid the price at which the dealer buys
from the public
Ask the price at which the dealer sells to
the public
Round trip a purchase followed by a
subsequent sale
19
Introductio
n
Safety
20
Introductio
n
Safety - Examples
1970: Penn Central Transportation
Company defaulted on its short-term
commercial notes.
The short-term commercial paper market
ground to a halt
Investors refused to buy even paper issued
by top grade companies
1980s: Continental Illinois Bank had to
be propped up by government loans.
Immediately rates on all short-term bank
CDs rose
There was a fear that all large bank CDs had
21
Introductio
n
Risks in the Market
Risks
Re-
Market Default Inflation Currency Political
investment
Risk Risk Risk Risk Risk
Risk
22
Introductio
n
Risks in the Market
23
Introductio
n
Risks…(Cont…)
29
Introductio
n
Central Banks
The market is overseen by the Federal Reserve
Bank in the U.S. and by the central banks of
other countries. These are:
U.K. – Bank of England
Canada – The Bank of Canada
Switzerland – The Swiss National Bank
Japan – Bank of Japan
Europe – European central bank
Germany – Bundesbank
Australia – Reserve Bank of Australia
30
Introductio
n
Features (Cont…)
32
Categories of
MMI
Categories
Money
Market
Instruments
Off-balance-sheet Derivative
Cash Instruments
Instruments Instruments
33
Categories of
MMI
Categories
Cash instruments - A contract for the
immediate borrowing or lending of
funds
Off-balance-sheet instruments (OBS) -
Arrangements for borrowing or lending
at a future point in time
The price is fixed in advance
This cannot be recorded on the balance
sheet of the parties
Balance sheet can only reflect current
borrowing/lending 34
Categories of
MMI
Cash Instruments
Cash
Instru-
ments
Bank bills
Certifi- Re-
Deposits & Commer-
Treasury cates Euro purchase
& Bankers’ cial
Bills Of notes Agreee-
Loans Accept- Paper
Deposit ments
ances
35
Categories of
MMI
Illustration
% p.a.
36
Categories of
MMI
Derivative Securities
Some off-balance-sheet-instruments do
not involve future borrowing / lending
They are used for managing risk
Only a return is paid
Instruments
39
Key Dates in Cash Market
Instruments
40
Key Dates
Key Dates
Transaction date
Value date
Maturity Date
41
Key Dates
Transaction Date
42
Key Dates
Value Date
43
Key Dates
Value Date
44
Key Dates
Maturity Date
The date on which the instrument
ceases to accrue a return
Maturity date is often not a date
It is a term to maturity which is a whole
number of weeks/months after the value
date
Date of maturity follows two
conventions
The Modified Following Business Day
Convention 45
The Modified Following Business Day
Convention
This convention consists of the following
three rules
1. Maturity is set for the same date as the
value date
If the value date is 21 March
The one month maturity will be 21 April
The two month maturity will be 21 May
2. If the maturity as per rule 1 is a non-
business day, then it is moved to the
following business day
46
Modified…(Cont…)
3. If the following business day according to
rule 2 falls in the next calendar month, then
the maturity date is moved back to the last
business day of the calendar month.
47
The End/End Rule
If the value date is the last business day
of the current calendar month, then the
maturity date will be the last business
day of the relevant calendar month.
Consider a one month deposit with a value
date of 31 May.
It will mature on 30 June if it is a business
day.
Consider a one month deposit with a value
date of 30 June
It will mature on 31 July if it is a business day
48
The End/End Rule (Cont…)
Consider a one month deposit with a value
date of 31 January
It will mature on 28 or 29 February
Consider a one month deposit with a value
date of 28 or 29 February
It will mature on 31 March
If the maturity date as per this rule were
to be a holiday then the modified
following business day convention
would apply.
49
Fed Funds & Clearinghouse
Funds
50
Fed Funds
51
Fed Funds
Fed Funds…(Cont…)
When a dealer firm buys
securities from a trader…
53
Fed Funds
54
Fed Funds
Process
55
Fed Funds
Funds availability
Clearinghouse funds are not accepted in
money markets
For money market transactions these
transactions are far too slow and risky
57
Global Money Mkts
59
Types of National MoneyGlobal Money Mkts
Markets
Securities dominated market most
borrowing and lending is through open
market trading of financial instruments.
Western markets are largely securities
dominated.
Bank dominated market bank
borrowing and lending is at the centre
of most transactions.
Asian markets tend to be largely bank
dominated.
These markets have a potential weakness -
they yield more easily to government 60
Global Money Mkts
61
Interbank Market
62
Interbank
Mkt
Interbank Market
It is a market for large or wholesale
loans and deposits
It is an arena for transactions between
commercial banks
Borrowing / lending is for periods <= 12
months
Participants
Commercial banks
Insurance companies
Pension funds
63
Interbank
Mkt
Need for Interbank Market
intermediary
65
Interbank
Mkt
Types of Loans
69
Interbank
Mkt
BBA LIBOR
BBA British Bankers’ Association
It is the most widely used benchmark
for short term interest rates
Rate is complied by BBA and Reuters
and released after 11 a.m. London time
BBA maintains a panel of 8 banks
It provides a reference panel which
reflects the balance of the market by
Country
Type of institution
70
Interbank
Mkt
LIBID
bank
LIBID LIBOR
Rate that banks with Rate that banks
surplus funds might seeking to borrow
have to accept on might have to pay
interbank deposit
Rate is lower Rate is higher
P x (r/100) x (T/360)
P Principal
T No. of days
r Rate of interest
75
Interbank
Mkt
Illustration
Bank makes a loan = $7.5 MM
Period: 1 year (365 days)
Interest rate = 5.25% p.a.
76
Securities and Relative Interest
Rates
77
Sec & Rel. Int.
Rates
T-Bills
81
T-Bills
Treasury Bills
Purchases / Sales of T-bills often
represent the largest volume of daily
transactions in the money market.
Interest rates on such bills are the
benchmark for all other money market
rates.
What are the important features of T-
bills?
a. Zero default risk
b. Ready marketability 82
T-Bills
U.S. T-Bills
U.S T-bills are direct obligations of the U.S.
government
By law T-bills in the U.S must have an original
maturity of <1 year
The government’s fiscal year runs from 1 Oct to
30 Sep
market conditions
84
T-Bills
89
T-Bills
bids
The Treasury entertains 2 types of bids.
Competitive bids typically are submitted
by large investors including banks and
securities dealers.
They bid for several million dollars worth of
securities at a time.
Non-competitive bids submitted by small
investors who agree to accept the price set
at the auction.
The Treasury generally fills all non-
competitive bids. 91
T-Bills
At the auction
Bids are arranged in descending All competitive bids
order from the highest price or in must be submitted to
ascending order from the lowest three decimal places
yield
Illustration
93
T-Bills
Pricing at auctions
95
T-Bills -
Yields
Example 1
Assume that a T-bill with
Face value = $100
90 days to maturity
Selling price = $97.50
96
T-Bills -
Yields
Example (Cont…)
97
T-Bills -
Yields
Example – Investment Rate
Rate of return for an investor who buys a bill at
a discount rate of DR will always be higher
than the quoted yield
Investment rate
99
T-Bills
Primary Dealers
The money market depends heavily on
the buying and selling activities of
securities dealers.
Primary Dealer
A dealer firm which is qualified to trade
securities directly with the Federal Reserve
Bank of New York
The firm must agree to be available to trade
securities at all times and post a capital of
at least $50m
100
Funding of Dealer Positions
101
Dealer
Positions
Funding of Dealer Positions
103
Dealer
Positions
Demand Loans
Every major bank posts rates at which it
is willing to make short-term loans to
dealers.
Generally two rates are quoted
One for new loans
A lower rate for the renewal of existing
loans
A demand loan may be called at any
time.
104
Such loans are virtually riskless because
Repurchase agreements
105
Repurchase
Agreements
Repos
Repurchase agreements are an
increasingly popular alternative to
demand loans.
They represent a temporary extension
of credit collateralized by marketable
securities
Dealer Sells securities Lender
Providers
of Repos
Non- Foreign
Large State Local Insurance
Finance Financial
Banks Govts Govts Cos
Cos Institutions
108
Repurchase
Agreements
Custodial Account
Securities for the collateral are
supposed to be placed in a ‘custodial
account’ at a bank.
When loan is repaid the dealer’s liability is
canceled and the securities are returned
There is evidence that this safety
feature is not scrupulously followed.
If a dealer goes out of business, lender may
have difficulty in recovering the securities
Dealer firms have collapsed and many S&Ls
lost money from inadequately collateralized
loans.
Fed authorities have imposed strict 109
Repurchase
Agreements
Types of Repos
Term Repos Contracts for terms
longer than overnight e.g. contracts for
periods ranging from 1 - 3 months or
even longer
Dollar repos They permit the
borrower to repurchase securities that
are similar to but not necessarily the
same as the securities originally sold
FLEX repos They permit lenders to
withdraw a part of the loan whenever
cash is needed.
110
Repurchase
Agreements
Value of Collateral
The interest rate of repos is closely
linked to other money market rates.
Usually the collateral is valued at the
current market price plus accrued
interest less a small discount called a
Haircut to reduce the lender’s exposure
to market risk.
The longer the term of the repo, and the
riskier and less liquid the security that is
pledged, the larger will be the Haircut. 111
Repurchase
Agreements
Value of Collateral
market.
collateral.
112
Repurchase
Agreements
Example of Repo - 1
A party has made an overnight loan of
$100 MM to a dealer at 7.2%
Thus the interest payable the next day
is:
100,000,000 x 0.072 x 1
___ = $20,000
360
113
Repurchase
Agreements
Illustration - 2
Take the case of a dealer who is looking
for a 30 day loan and is willing to pledge
T-notes as collateral.
Assume accrued interest = $205,700
The quoted price per $100 of face value
is $100.9375
The repo is for 30 days
The rate of interest is 9% p.a.
The haircut is 0.005 price points
114
Repurchase
Agreements
Illustration - 2 (Cont…)
The amount that can be borrowed against the
securities is:
5,000,000 (1.009375 - 0.005) + 205,700
= $5,227,575
115
Repurchase
Agreements
Illustration - 2 (Cont…)
117
Repurchase
Agreements
Credit Risk
Interest rates rise Interest rates
If interest rates rise decline
If interest rates decline,
sharply, the value of the value of the
the collateral will collateral will rise.
decline and the lender
will be vulnerable
In this case, if the If the lender goes
borrower were to go bankrupt, the borrower
bankrupt, the lender will be left with an
will be left with assets amount that is less
which may be worth than the market value
less than the loan of the securities.
amount.
118
Repurchase
Agreements
Margins
120
Repurchase
Agreements
Reverse Repo
Such transactions offer a convenient
route for lenders to park excess funds
for short periods.
From the perspective of the lender such
an arrangement is called a reverse
repurchase agreement or a reverse
repo.
Thus every repo must be matched by a
reverse repo.
A dealer looking to borrow funds will do a
repo.
A dealer looking to place funds will do a 121
Repurchase
Agreements
Matched Book
128
Fed Funds
Federal Funds
129
Fed Funds
Federal Funds
History Today
The name federal funds Today the Fed funds
came about because in the market is far broader in
earlier years the principal scope than just reserves on
source of immediately deposit with Federal
available money was the Reserve Banks
reserve balance that each
bank held with the regional
Federal
If a bankReserve
neededBank
to Virtually all banks maintain
transfer funds to another it deposits with large
needed to only contact the correspondent banks in
regional FRB and funds major cities. These
would be transferred in a deposits may be readily
matter of seconds by transferred from the
computers account of one bank to that
130
Fed Funds
institution.
131
Fed Funds
State &
Securities Corpora- Insurance Commercial
Local S & Ls
dealers tions Cos banks
Govts
Trading
133
Fed Funds
Illustration 1
Take for example two banks that are located in New York
This is payable
The borrower would be
immediately. Fed funds
handed a check drawn on the
would be transferred to the
lender’s reserve account at
borrower’s reserve account
the Federal Reserve Bank of
before the close of business
New York
135
Fed Funds
Illustration 2
If the institutions are not located within the same
district the transaction would proceed in the same
way except that two Federal Reserve banks would be
involved
The borrower and the lender agree on the
terms of the loan
Contact Mechanisms
b. Telephone
maturity date
138
Fed Funds
140
Nego CDs
What is a CD?
Negotiable CDs
143
Nego CDs
Non-negotiable Time Deposits vs.
Negotiable CDs
Calculations
Consider a CD with a face value of V.
The funds owed on maturity is given by:
V + Tm
____ x V x i
360
where:
Tm original term to maturity
i interest rate
145
Nego CDs
Example
Calculations (Cont…)
To convert the yield to a true yield for a
365 day year, multiply the quoted rate
by 365/360.
Thus
YTMCD = i x 365
____
360
147
Nego CDs
Example
i = 0.075
148
Nego CDs
Yield on CDs
149
Nego CDs
150
Nego CDs
Yields on CDs
supply.
CDs are not riskless because the issuing
Illustration
A bank is quoting 8% p.a. on a 3 month
deposit
Reserves @ 5% and are non-interest
bearing
Effectively $8 interest is being offered
on $95 of usable funds
Effective rate =
8
95 = 8.42%
152
Nego CDs
Illustration
Effective cost is
153
Commercial Paper
154
Comm
Paper
Commercial Paper
Unsecured promissory notes are known
as commercial paper
Large corporations borrow billions of
dollars in the money market through
these
A study in U.S. found that 1000+
corporations were regularly selling
commercial paper to money market
investors
Such paper consists of short-term
unsecured promissory notes issued by
well known companies that are
155
financially strong and carry high credit
Comm
Paper
Funds raised for
156
Comm
Paper
Bridge Financing
157
Comm
Paper
Buyers of Commercial Paper
Paper is generally issued in multiples of
$1,000 & in denominations designed to
meet the needs of the buyer.
It is traded mainly in the primary
market.
Opportunities for resale in secondary
market are limited
Investors are careful to purchase those
issues whose maturity matches their
planned holding periods. 158
Comm
Paper
Credit rating
Most issuers of paper enjoy a high credit
rating.
To reduce risk for investors, borrowers
usually secure a line of credit at a
commercial bank for a small fee or a
deposit.
The line of credit cannot be used to directly
guarantee payment if company goes
bankrupt.
The lender may renege on the credit line if
the borrower has had a `material adverse
change’ in his condition. 159
Comm
Paper
Letters of Credit
Many issuers also take out irrevocable
letters of credit prepared by their banks.
Such a letter of credit makes a bank
unconditionally responsible for repayment if
the corporation defaults.
Banks usually charge 50 to 150 b.p. on
the amount of the guarantee that is
issued.
Insurance companies and parent
companies of paper issuers also
guarantee issues of commercial paper.
160
Comm
Paper
Types of Commercial Paper
161
Comm
Paper
Direct Paper
The main issuers of direct paper are
Large finance companies
Bank holding companies
Issuers deal directly with investors
rather than use securities dealers as
intermediaries.
Such companies announce the rates
that they are paying on various
maturities
Investors select maturities that closely
match their expected holding periods and
buy the paper directly from the issuer.
Interest rates may be adjusted during the 162
day that the paper is sold to regulate the
Comm
Paper
Direct Paper (Cont…)
Leading finance companies that borrow
in the direct paper market include
General Motors Acceptance Corporation
(GMAC)
General Electric Capital Corporation (GE
Capital)
Such firms have
An ongoing need for short-term money
Possess top credit ratings
Have established working relationships with
163
Comm
Paper
Direct Paper (Cont…)
Directly placed paper must be sold in
large volume to cover the substantial
costs of distribution and marketing.
On an average each direct issuer in the U.S.
borrows at least $1bn per month
Issuers of direct paper do not have to
pay dealers’ commissions
They must maintain a marketing division to
maintain constant contact with active
investors
Issuers like Citicorp sell paper in weekly
auctions in which buyers bid for 164
Comm
Paper
Funds used for
Sometimes direct issuers must sell their
paper even when they have no need for
funds
They have to maintain a good working
relationship with active investor groups.
They also have to pay fees to banks for
supporting lines of credit.
They have to pay agencies that rate their
issues
They have to pay agents like trust
165
companies that collect funds and disburse
Comm
Paper
Industrial Paper
The other variety of commercial paper
is dealer paper that is issued by security
dealers on behalf of their corporate
customers.
Such paper is also known as Industrial
Paper.
This is issued mainly by non-financial
companies, smaller bank holding
companies and financial companies
These borrow less frequently than
companies that issue direct paper. 166
Comm
Paper
Buyers of Industrial Paper
The issuing company may sell the paper
directly to the dealer who buys it less a
discount and commissions, and then
attempts to resell it at the highest
possible price in the market.
Alternatively the issuing company may
bear all the risk with the dealer only
agreeing to sell at the best price
available less commissions.
This is referred to as a best efforts
transaction.
167
Comm
Paper
Value of Paper
170
Comm
Paper
Yankee Paper
Yankee paper Foreigners also issue
paper in the U.S. market.
Issuers can often issue Yankee paper at
a cheaper rate than what it would cost
them to borrow outside the U.S.
Foreign issuers generally pay higher
rates than American issuers of
comparable credit quality.
This is to compensate American investors
for the difficulty of gathering information on
foreign issuers and the lack of name
recognition.
171
Comm
Paper
International Paper - Yen
172
Comm
Paper
International Paper - Euro
176
Comm
Paper
Yield on Commercial Paper
177
Comm
Paper
Denomination for Paper
The minimum denomination for paper is
usually $25,000
Among institutional investors the
minimum denomination is usually
$1,000,000
Notes are typically issued in bearer form
to make resale easier.
On maturity, payment is made on
presentation to the bank which is
designated as the agent.
Settlement is made in Federal Funds on
the same day.
178
Comm
Paper
Advantages with paper market
179
Comm
Paper
Example
Take the case of a firm that borrows
$100MM @ 8% with a compensating
balance of 20%
180
Comm
Paper
Advantages with paper market
183
Comm
Paper
Risk of Paper
184
Comm
Paper
Ratings and Rating Agencies
Depending on the credit standing of the
issuer paper is rated as:
Prime
Desirable or
Satisfactory
Firms issuing paper generally seek
ratings from multiple issuers.
It is extremely difficult to market unrated
paper.
About 75% of the firms that currently sell
paper are prime rated.
Generally notes bearing ratings from at
least two agencies are preferred by 185
investors.
Comm
Paper
Rating Agencies
Prominent rating agencies include:
Moody’s Investors Service
Standard & Poor’s Corporation
Fitch Investor’s Service
Canadian Bond Rating Service
Japanese Bond Rating Institute
Dominion Bond Rating Service
IBCA Ltd.
186
Comm
Paper
Summary of the Rating Systems
187
Comm
Paper
Credit Rating
191
BAs
What is a bill?
It is an undertaking to pay a specified
amount of money at a future date –
upto 12 months in the future
It is a form of short-term finance for the
debtor
Bills can be sold in the money market at
any time prior to their maturity date
Bills are classified on basis of the entity
which gives the undertaking to pay
T-Bills
Bank bills
Trade bills
192
BAs
Bills of Exchange
In international trade when goods are
exported the exporter will draw up a
Draft or a Bill of Exchange.
A Draft is an instrument that instructs
the importer to pay the amount
mentioned upon presentation.
A Draft may be a
Sight Draft
Time Draft
193
BAs
Sight Drafts
194
BAs
Time Drafts
These are also known as Usance Drafts.
The bank will release the shipping
documents in such cases as soon as the
importer accepts the draft by signing on
it.
The importer need not pay immediately.
In other words the exporter is offering
him credit for a period.
When the importer accepts a draft it
becomes a ‘Trade Acceptance’. 195
BAs
LC Based Transactions
In the case of a sight draft the
importer’s bank will pay on
presentation.
In the case of a time draft it will accept
it by signing on it.
A draft that is accepted by a bank is
called a Banker’s Acceptance
It is obviously more marketable than a trade
acceptance. 197
BAs
199
BAs
Trade Bills
These are issued by a commercial
enterprise
They are bills drawn by one non-bank
company on another demanding
payment for a trade debt
They may be used for domestic /
international trade transactions
Financial institutions will buy only the
finest trade bills in the market
200
BAs
Bank Bills
acceptance
201
Buying and Selling Bills - BAs
Illustration
Illustration (Cont…)
Purchase price:
= $4,890,625
Sale price:
= $4,920,833.33
203
BAs
Illustration (Cont…)
Profit:
$4,920,833.33 - $ 4,890,625 = $
30,208.33
(30,208.33/4,890,625) * (360/30)
= 7.41%
204
Eurocurrency Deposits
205
Eurocurrency
Deposits
What is Eurocurrency?
it belongs.
Dollars deposited outside the US are
Eurodollars
206
Eurocurrency
Deposits
Illustration
A french exporter ships champagne to a
New York importer accompanied by a
bill for $10,000
The importing firm pays for the
champagne by issuing a cheque
denominated in dollars and deposits it
in a US bank – First American bank –
where the French firm has a checking
account
207
Eurocurrency
Deposits
Illustration (Cont…)
After the check clears the results are:
French Exporter’s Account
Assets Liabilities
Assets Liabilities
Deposit owed to French Exporter
= $10,000
208
Eurocurrency
Deposits
Illustration (Cont…)
209
Eurocurrency
Deposits
Illustration (Cont…)
The 4 transactions will be:
French Exporter’s Account
Assets Liabilities
Assets Liabilities
Reserves transferred to Deposit owed to French Exporter
Correspondent Bank = - $10,000 = - $10,000
210
Eurocurrency
Deposits
Illustration (Cont…)
Assets Liabilities
Reserves transferred from Deposit owed to Paris Bank =
First American Bank = $10,000
$10,000
Paris Bank’s Account
Assets Liabilities
Deposit with US Correspondent Deposit owed to French Exporter
Bank = $10,000 = $10,000
211
Illustration (Cont…)
212
Eurocurrency
Deposits
Illustration (Cont…)
Assets Liabilities
Loan to British company = +
$10,000
Deposit in Correspondent
Bank = - $10,000
British Oil Company’s Account
Assets Liabilities
Deposit with US Correspondent Loan from Paris Bank = $10,000
Bank = $10,000
213
Eurocurrency
Deposits
Illustration (Cont…)
Assets Liabilities
Deposit owed to French
Amount owed by British Oil
Company = + $10,000
exporter = $10,000
214
Part-10
extra sales
What should be the price markup ito
company as a whole
What should be the credit limit for each
customer
Should existing limits be increased or
decreased
Should an order or a loan request be
accepted or rejected
Risk Reward…(Cont…)
An optimal credit decision
Would maximize total income net of
the costs of bad debts and delayed
payments
Illustration
A company expects to sell 25MM of
goods each year
The gross profit margin is 30%
Bad debts are 2.50% of the turnover
Illustration (Cont…)
It believes that by offering more
liberal credit terms
The turnover can be increased by
30%
But average debtors would be 4MM
higher
Bad debts would probably increase to
5% of the turnover
The cost of funding debtors is
Analysis
Current gross profit = 25,000,000
x 0.3 = $7,500,000
Bad debts = 25,000,000 x 0.025 =
$625,000
The change in policy will boost
gross profit by:
7,500,000 x 0.3 = $2,225,000
Analysis (Cont…)
It will increase bad debts by:
25,000,000 x 1.30 x 0.05 -625,000
= $1,000,000
The extra financing cost =
4,000,000 x 0.125 = $500,000
The net benefit is:
2,250,000 – 1,000,000 – 500,000 =
$750,000
Analysis (Cont…)
The net benefit is positive
So the change in the credit policy is
beneficial
Credit Risk: Banks
When a bank makes a loan to a
client
There exists credit risk for the bank
As well as for the customer
What is the risk for the bank?
The client may be unable to pay
interest
He may be unable to repay the loan
principal
Bank Loans: Sources for
Repayment
A bank loan can have three
sources for repayment:
The cash flows of the borrower
Security in the form of a fixed or
floating charge on the borrower’s
assets
A guarantee from a third party
Bank Loans…(Cont…)
Banks look for at least two of these
sources of repayment
In the case of corporate borrowers
Banks expect loans to be usually
repaid out of operational cash flows
It will try and get assurance that the
borrower will have the liquidity to
repay
Bank Loans…(Cont…)
Taking security such as a charge
on an asset is a fallback source
In the event of non-payment, the
bank can seek repayment from the
sale of secured assets
In the case of a guaranteed loans
The bank will ask the guarantor for
repayment
Bank Loans…(Cont…)
Even if the loan were to be
secured, the bank may not be fully
protected
The market value of the secured
assets may fall below the amount of
the loan
Fixed Charge
When a company borrows money the
lender will usually take security
The lender may have provided money
to acquire an asset like
Land
Buildings
Automobiles
The borrower cannot sell such assets
without the lender’s permission
Fixed Charge (Cont…)
Take the case of a mortgage loan
The mortgagor cannot own the house
outright till the loan is repaid
It cannot be sold without the lender’s
permission till the loan is repaid
Consequently it is a fixed charge
Floating Charge
If a lender may take a general or
floating charge against the assets of the
borrower
Such assets may include
Stock: Finished goods or Raw Material
Work in Process
Debtors
Fixtures and Fittings
Cash
Vehicles and assets not subject to fixed
charges
Floating Charge (Cont…)
A floating charge is an interest
over a fund of changing assets
It floats or hovers until conversion
to a fixed charge
At that point it attaches to specific
assets
This conversion is known as
`Crystallization’
Restricting Bad Debts
There are many ways of keeping
bad debts to a tolerable level
Avoid loans to risky customers
Monitor loan payments
Renegotiate loans when the borrower
gets into difficulties
Restricting…(Cont…)
Loans should be made only to
parties who are unlikely to
become insolvent
Credit analysis is required to gauge
credit risk
Loan payments should be monitored and
action taken in the event of default
The customer may fail to pay interest by the
due date
If necessary the loan should be called in
Restricting…(Cont…)
A bank may support a borrower
who is unable to meet the
repayment schedule
If so the conditions of the loan may
be altered
Loan covenants may be made less
restrictive
An interest holiday may be allowed
The term of the loan may be
Restricting…(Cont…)
A lender may agree to a re-financing
package
A borrower is given new loans to payoff
maturing loans with interest
Bank support for borrowers in difficulty
can be extensive during recessions
The lenders in such circumstances
might hope that
The economy will eventually recover
Borrowers’ businesses would improve,
enabling them to repay
Restricting…(Cont…)
Such consideration will help
Banks to avoid bad debts write-offs
Such write-offs may cause them to report
lower profits or even losses
Maintain their existing customer base
The flip side is:
The credit exposure to the party
increases
If the borrower goes bankrupt, the
bad debt will be even higher
Illustration
ABC Corp has borrowed
$10,000,000 from First National
Bank
The interest rate is 10%, payable
quarterly.
Subsequently the company is
unable to repay
The bank agrees to add the unpaid
interest to the loan
Illustration (Cont…)
ABC is a bad credit risk
Because of the holiday the loan will
increase from $10MM to $10.25MM
Thus while the bank has received
no cash income
Its credit risk exposure is $250,000
higher
Covenants
What is a covenant?
It is a condition that the borrower must
comply with in order to adhere to the
loan agreement
If the borrower does not act in
accordance, the loan can be considered
to be in default
If so, the lender has the right to
2 2 98 8 10 10/98 =
10.20
5 5 95 8 13 13/95 =
13.68
10 10 90 8 18 18/90 =
20.00
Risk for the Customers
Customers too face credit risk
while dealing with a bank.
If the bank were to collapse their
deposits are at risk
Examples
BCCI
Barings Bank
Risks…(Cont…)
A bank may refuse to extend a
loan to support temporary cash
flow problems
A borrower can prevent this by paying
interest and principal as per schedule
Nevertheless, business uncertainties
may always require
larger borrowings
or an extension in maturity
Credit Management
Credit management is concerned with
managing debtors and
financing debts
The objective of credit management is
Safeguarding investments in debtors
Optimizing operational cash flows
Policies and procedures are required for
Granting credit to customers
Collecting payments
Limiting risks of non-payment
Credit Control
This is an important function of
credit management
It is a process for:
Deciding how much credit should be
given to a borrower
Ensuring compliance with credit
terms
Credit Control (Cont…)
Why is credit control required?
It helps avoid a liquidity shortage due to
excessive investments in debtors
It is required to strike a balance between
Giving credit to make more sales and
Financial risks from non-payment or late payment
Poor control increases the risks to
liquidity and
profitability
Credit Control (Cont…)
A credit control system should
include procedures for
How much credit to take
And how much credit to give
Risks can arise from overexposure
to
A particular bank for loans obtained
To a particular supplier for trade
credit
Credit Control (Cont…)
If debtors are not well managed there
could be several consequences
Amount of unpaid debts will be high
Excessive debtors will add to the cost of
business assets and will
Reduce the return on assets
Debtors represent unpaid invoices that have to be
financed and
This creates an interest cost
The risk of bad debts will be greater
This has a direct effect on profits
Illustration
A company has total assets of $6MM
including debtors of $1.5MM
Annual sales are 10MM
The company has a bank overdraft
It could be reduced if debtors paid more
promptly
But it will increase if the total amount of
unpaid debt increases
Interest is 10% per annum
Illustration (Cont…)
Because of poor credit
management debtors increase to
$2MM
Bad debts rise to 0.75% of sales
turnover
Illustration (Cont…)
Consequences
Profits will fall by $75,000 due to
higher bad debts
The increase in debtors has to be
financed
The annual interest cost will rise by
$50,000
Lower profits and higher assets
(debtors) will lead to a fall on ROA
Achieving Credit Control
It is a continuous process
Entails:
Establishing lending principles
Formulating and implementing a credit
policy
Deciding credit terms to customers
Setting maximum credit limits for the debtors in
total
Credit assessment of individual customers
To decide whether or not to grant credit
Achieving…(Cont…)
Operational management of the credit cycle
Invoicing procedures
Collection procedures
Query control
Monitoring the creditworthiness and credit
limits of customers
Arranging secured methods of payment
Where normal credit terms cannot be offered
without unacceptable risk
Credit Control and
Marketing
Credit control is an element of the
marketing mix
It is a part of the customer service
function
Handling credit requests and
establishing credit terms is a part of
the selling service
If a client is not given what he requires
The business relationship could be in
jeopardy
Credit Control and
Marketing
Credit needs to be controlled
But is should be comparable with
what competitors offer
Credit can be a feature of price
A price of $10,000 for cash payment
is equivalent to $10,300 with 3
months credit if the interest rate is
12% per annum
Influences on Credit
Management
High interest rates
Availability of bank loans
Low profits and cash flow problems
Growing use of computers
High Interest Rates
High rates are a feature of an
economic recession
They are used as a policy to control
inflation
It has implications for the cost of
granting credit
Availability of Bank Loans
Availability of bank credit is
dependent on the capital adequacy
rules
It also depends on the state of the
economy
The bank may be recovering from
major bad debt losses
Availability…(Cont…)
In bad times small companies are
more vulnerable
They rely more on bank loans
Unlike large companies they cannot
easily issue bonds or commercial
paper
Cutbacks in bank lending may
force companies to rely more on
trade credit
Low Profitability and Poor
Cash Flows
The cost of granting credit may be
greater for companies with low
profits/cash flow problems
A party may delay payments to
ease its cash flow difficulties
But it will be passing on similar
difficulties to its suppliers
Computerized Credit
Information
There has been a gradual increase
in the use of computers for credit
management
Credit reference agencies maintain a
business database
Large agencies can transmit credit
information electronically to clients
Computerized…(Cont…)
Companies can use their own
computerized sales ledger systems
to generate credit management
reports
Regular aged debtor analysis
Listing of overdue debts
Credit Management in
Banks
Banks and other companies face similar
credit management issues
All organizations require a credit policy
For banks granting credit is their
business
A policy framework is essential
Individual applications for credit have to be
vetted
Banks have routine procedures and systems
Credit Management…
(Cont…)
Banks have the staff expertise to
rely mainly on in-house
assessments
Smaller companies usually rely on
external assessments
Credit Management…
(Cont…)
There are some differences in the way
banks manage credit.
Trade suppliers must establish
procedures for
Invoicing
Collecting payments
Chasing non-payers
Banks can often simply debit the
checking account of a client
Credit Management…
(Cont…)
Chasing of non-payments is necessary
for a bank only
If the customer has an account with another
bank
Or the account balance is insufficient
There are also differences in the
approach of banks to security of
payment
Banks can ask for a fixed or floating charge
Or for a third party guarantee
Credit Management…
(Cont…)
If the risk is perceived to be high,
the bank can also ask for a higher
interest rate
Principles of Good Lending
The initial lending/borrowing
proposition must come from the
client
It may ask to borrow an amount for a
stated period and purpose
This will give an idea to the bank as to
how it can expect to be repaid.
Principles…(Cont…)
The banker has to decide
Is the proposal acceptable in its
current form
Or will it be acceptable if amended
Or is it unacceptable in any form
If the bank agrees to lend it will
want to structure the loan to
match the purpose
Analyzing Lending
Propositions
Many lending decisions are based on
experience and instinct
Even so the approach should be
structured
Consider each important factor
Assess whether the proposal satisfies
certain criteria
Banks’ principles of good lending can be
reduced to a simple framework
CAMPARI and ICE
CAMPARI
C – Character
A – Ability
M – Means
P – Purpose
A – Amount
R – Repayment
I – Insurance
ICE
I – Interest
C – Commissions
E – Extras
Character
The borrower’s character is a prime
factor
Banks will often lend on the assurance
of
A person
Management team
Company name
Taken to an extreme this can result in
bad debts
Lenders must be vary of borrowers who can
Character (Cont…)
Integrity and honesty are not the only
aspects
An honest customer may not be
creditworthy
It is important to assess character in
terms of whether:
The owners or directors have a financial
interest in the business
The management is of good caliber
The company has well-regarded financial
advisers
Character (Cont…)
Either or both of the following methods
may be used to judge character
Past Record: A banker can look at the
history of the customer’s account with the
bank
If he does not have an account the issue is why is
he not approaching his own bank
Personal Interview
Character can be assessed from a personal
meeting
Reinforced by a visit to the customer’s premises
This is however no substitute for factual
Ability
Let us suppose the borrower is a part of a
larger group
It is necessary to identify its status within the group
In order to assess the potential credit risk for the lender
A group of companies is not necessarily a legal
entity
If a group company borrows money the bank’s
transaction is not with the group as a whole
In the event of default
The lender cannot take action against the group or
the parent company
He can take action only against the borrowing entity
Ability (Cont…)
The lender can rely on the
collective financial strength of the
group only if
The borrowing company is the parent
The parent or another group company
provides a guarantee to the bank
Ability (Cont…)
A parent company could create a
subsidiary
Specifically for the purpose of borrowing
Or carrying out other specific transactions
on behalf of the group
If so the lender would have a credit
exposure only to this entity
And would have no claim on the group’s
assets in the event of default
Ability (Cont…)
Even if the subsidiary is a part of a
group that has a AAA rating
The lender will have a high credit risk
exposure if the subsidiary is financially
weak
Thus a lender should refuse a loan to a
subsidiary
Unless it is financially strong
Or unless other group companies are willing
to provide guarantees
Means
Means or Capacity refers to the
borrower have
Technical
Managerial
Financial
abilities to operate profitably and
succeed in business
Means (Cont…)
A corporate borrower should give the
appearance of coping with changes in
business and technology
Should have
The premises
Equipment
Transport
Staff
Gross interest cost
Contractual payments under operating leases
Preference dividends
rating watch
If a debt issue is on credit watch, the agency will advise
investors to use the rating with caution
Influence of Rating
Agencies
A rating will affect the rate at
which organizations can borrow
new funds
Ratings are based on analysts’
judgments
Thus a rating by S&P can occasionally
differ from a rating for the same issue
by Moddy’s
External Information
Sources
When a customer applies for credit for
the first time
The credit manager has to decide
Should an account be opened?
If so, what should be the credit limit and
terms
The purpose of credit related
information is to give the potential
lender some reassurance that
The amount owed will be paid in full and on
time
Sources (Cont…)
The credit manager needs to
decide:
For how long can the credit be
granted
What amount can be risked as a
potential bad debt?
That is, how much credit can be given
without taking an over-exposure to risk
Sources (Cont…)
Credit Bureaus
They provide information about:
Companies
Partnerships
Sole proprietorships
But bureaus differ in the services they
offer
Some simply supply historical accounting
records
Large bureaus provide online information
So that immediate credit decisions can be taken
Some bureaus offer their own credit
Sources?
Why should a business use the
services of a bureau?
The objective is to obtain extra
information that will help decide
about credit terms
Information can be sought about
potential new customers
Or else more information can be sought
about an existing client that could affect
its credit standing
Sources (Cont…)
Rating agencies assess large
organizations
Bureaus can however provide
information on small businesses
Credit risk stems from fraud as
well as financial weakness
Information from a bureau may
help detect a fraudulent customer.
Sources (Cont…)
Much of the information available
to bureau is published or in public
domain
Such as published accounts
But bureaus have certain core
competencies
The have a huge database of credit
information that is kept up-to-date
They know where to obtain relevant
information
Sources (Cont…)
They could have access to
information about a party’s payment
records
Or to trade related information
supplied by the party’s clients
Such information may be useful for
the bureau’s other clients
They can seek information directly
A bureau has the experience and skills to
ask relevant questions and to judge the
replies
Sources (Cont…)
The type of report available varies from
agency to agency
Large agencies provide a variety of
reports
A report could be limited to information
about
The capital structure of a company
Its registered office
Directors’ names and addresses
A list of shareholders where available
Sources (Cont…)
A status report gives up-to-date
financial information about a
business that is extracted from the
database
Includes records of any hire purchase
defaults
And records of unfavorable court
judgments
These reports can be
supplemented by an ongoing
Sources (Cont…)
Some agencies consist of member
organizations that grant credit to
customers as a part of normal trading
operations
Records are maintained of credits
granted to customers by each member
Of bad debts that the members have
suffered
Bankruptcies, insolvencies, unsatisfied
court judgments involving the clients
Sources (Cont…)
A member before granting credit
can check with the agency
whether there is anything on
record about the client
Sources (Cont…)
Dun & Bradstreet is a well known credit
reference agency
It has a large payment profile data bank
Contains information about payments
records of companies
A payment score report can be obtained
from this data
This is a numerical score that rates a
company’s performance in paying its bills
It is based on an analysis of payment
records on the database
Choosing a Bureau
There are many agencies
Each has its own sources of
information
And its own approach to credit
assessment and reporting
Reports may be provided in hard
copy format or on-line
For a corporate credit controller
seeking information - it may be
appropriate to obtain reports from
Trade References and Bank
Status Reports
If a credit controller doesn’t want
to use an agency to obtain
information – there are other
options
Asking for trade references from a
potential new customer
Asking for a bank status report
Trade References
The potential customer can be
asked to give the names and
addresses of existing suppliers
They can give a reference indicating
whether the party is reliable and has
a history of prompt payments
The referees must be provided
with evidence that the party has
consented to the reference being
Bank Status Reports
Such reports can be sought from
the potential client’s bank
This is a banker’s opinion about a
customer
The protocol is for a company to
seek a report through its own bank
With an indication of the amount of
credit envisaged
The bank will then pass on the
request to the potential customer’s
Inhouse Assessments
A company can establish a system
for the assessment of customers
by inhouse analysts
This can be instead of or in
addition to information from
external agencies
Banks for instance do most of their
analyses inhouse
Companies use a team of analysts
or a credit manager
Methods of Credit Risk
Analysis
The most common form of analysis
is financial
This involves studying the
available financial information –
often drawn from the annual
reports and accounts
A number of different financial
ratios can be computed
Methods…(Cont…)
Ratios provide some indications
about a company’s:
Profitability
Capital strength
Liquidity
Control over working capital
The adequacy of cash flows can
also be assessed
Method…(Cont…)
In addition to ratio analysis other methods can
be used
The techniques are complementary and not a
substitute for financial analysis
They are however usually unreliable if used on their
own
Such methods include:
Collecting information from newspapers,
journals and other sources to build up a
company profile
Credit scoring
Profit/cash flow projections
Building a Profile
The activities of may publicly held
companies are widely reported
Stock price information is available in
the press
This shows price movements and
market capitalization
Daily stock trading volumes are
reported
As are reasons for significant price
rise or decline
Share Price
A large fall in the share price of a
firm could be a prelude to its
financial collapse
Some firms will recover
Many will not
Suppliers and banks could decide
to limit the credit offered to
companies in trouble
Unless there is a recovery in the share price
Dividend Cover
Dividends are important to
investors
So public companies try to
maintain if not increase the
dividend payout from one year to
the next
If the profits decline, the ability to
pay dividends out of current profits
could be at risk
Dividend Cover (Cont…)
During prosperous companies are
able to maintain a ratio of profits
to dividends of about 2.5:1
This is the dividend cover ratio
For instance if the PAT is $10MM and
a dividend of $4MM is declared, the
dividend cover ratio will be 10:4
If profits fall but dividends are not
cut – the dividend cover ratio will
Dividend Cover (Cont…)
In a recession, some companies
may pay an uncovered dividend –
a dividend that is higher than the
current year’s profits
When the dividend cover is low
Cash flows and liquidity could come
under strain
Illustration
A company had a PAT of $5MM in year 1
The dividend declared was $4MM
Next year the profits fell to $2.4MM
But the dividend was maintained at
$4MM
In the first year the dividend cover was
1.25 and the company retained $1MM
of profits to reinvest in the company
If it had a high capital budget it would
need extra funding from other sources
Illustration (Cont…)
In year 2 the dividend cover is 0.60
Dividend payments exceed profits
by $1.6MM
Obviously the cash has to come
from elsewhere
Unless the profits improve in
subsequent years or the dividend
is cut – the cash flow problems will
intensify
Part-11
Introduction to
Financial Ratios
And Cash Flow Analysis
What is a Ratio?
Itis a measured comparison of the size or
amount of an item in relation to the size and
amount of another
They are widely used to analyze company
accounts
They give meaning to numbers
Such meaning may not be apparent from the detailed
numbers themselves
Help to simplify analysis
Focus on key performance aspects
Illustration
A company has increased its turnover
from 52.50MM USD last year to 57.75MM
this year
It is simpler and more meaningful to state that
sales turnover has increased by 10%
Ratios (Cont…)
A statement like - `profits were $5MM this year’
are meaningless
We have to relate the figure to the size of the company
Or to the profit for the preceding financial year
A statement that - `current assets are $5MM’ is
equally meaningless
It must be related to the turnover of the business
Or compared with Fixed Assets or Current Liabilities of
the business
Ratios (Cont…)
Ratios
are useful because they are based
on comparisons
Performance
can be judged only on the basis of
such comparative analysis
Purpose of Ratios
The objective of computing ratios is to
obtain information about a firm’s financial
position
This is achieved by comparing the ratio with
Trends in the same ratio over a period of time
`Standards’ that are considered to be desirable
(CAPEX)
Uses of Cash (Cont…)
In adequate cash flows can result in:
Over-reliance on borrowing
Poor liquidity
Profitability
Inthe long-run companies must be profitable if
they are to survive
For a bank, giving credit to a loss-making firm or to a
firm making marginal profits is a bigger risk
It is not that profitable companies cannot run into
liquidation
Their debts may be very high
However it is a key indicator of the long-term
liquidity and solvency of a firm
Profitability (Cont…)
Issues for the analyst:
Vulnerabilityto a sales downturn
And its potential consequences for profits
Asset Turnover
ROCE
Thisratio compares the amount of profit to
the size of the firm
ROCE = Profit x 100%
____________
Capital Employed
Issues
Thereis no unique way of defining profits
or assets employed
Possible Definitions of Profit
Profit before Interest and Tax – PBIT
Profit After Interest but before Tax
Profit After Tax
Definitions of Capital Employed
Stockholder’s funds
Share capital plus reserves plus LTD
Share capital plus reserves plus Total Debt
Long-term debt
Short-term debt
Financial leases
= 4.80%
Analysis
One way of analyzing changes in
profitability is:
compare the ratios of various items of cost to
the sales turnover.
Illustration
Item Year-2 in % of Year-1 % of
Turnover Turnover
Turnover 1,000,000 100 800,000 100
Cost of sales 750,000 75% 560,000 70%
Gross Profit 250,000 25% 240,000 30%
Distribution 50,000 5% 32,000 4%
Costs
Admin. 125,000 12.5% 100,000 12.5%
Expenses
Trading 75,000 7.50% 108,000 13.5%
Profit
Interest 25,000 2.5% 10,000 1.25%
PBT 50,000 5% 98,000 12.25%
Tax 15,000 1.5% 29,400 3.675%
PAT 35,000 3.5% 68600 8.575%
Analysis
The profit margin (PAT÷Turnover) has declined
from 8.575% to 3.5%.
This is due to the following factors
Cost of sales has gone up by 5c per dollar
Distribution cost has gone up by 1c per dollar
Interest costs have gone up by 1.25c per dollar
Taxes have declined by 2.175c per dollar
Overall profit has declined by 5.075c per dollar
Asset Turnover
This ratio is used to assess whether the
volume of sales in commensurate with the
assets invested in operations
Asset Turnover = Sales÷Assets Employed
It is a useful indicator of how successful
the firm is at generating sales
Illustration
A company generated sales of $1,000,000
It employed a capital of $ 250,000
Thus the asset turnover is:
1,000,000 ÷ 250,000 = 4
Thus the company generated $4 of sales
for every dollar employed
Relation
The three ratios are interrelated
ROCE = Profit Margin x Asset Turnover
Profit ÷ Capital Employed = (Profit ÷ Sales) x (Sales ÷
Capital Employed)
A firm can earn a ROCE of 20% by earning a
margin of 10% on a low asset turnover of 2 or by
earning a margin of 2.5% on a turnover of 8
Returns depend on profit margins as well as turnover
Both are important for the financial health of a business
Analyzing Financial Risk
Financialrisk is the risk that a firm cannot
repay its debt in full or on time because of
a large debt burden.
Financial Risk (Cont…)
Debtcan be repaid from three main
sources:
Cash from trading operations
Cash raised from the sale of fixed assets,
stocks or investments
New funds raised – by way of a loan or a Rights
Issue
Financial Risk (Cont…)
While making a lending decision it should
be assumed that the opportunity to raise
fresh funds does not exist
Granting loans for repaying old loans is a bad
practice
Leverage
Leverage is the ratio of `prior charge
capital’ relative to the size of equity capital
or to the size of total capital
Leverage = Prior Charge Capital x 100 ÷
Equity
OR
Leverage = Prior Charge Capital x 100 ÷
Total Capital
Leverage (Cont…)
Either balance sheet values or market values
can be used - for both prior charge capital as
well as for equity
If balance sheet values are used, the
computation is as follows:
Equity = Common stock in issue plus balance sheet
reserves
Prior Charge Capital = All long-term capital that has a
prior claim ahead of equity
It consists of bank loans, and debentures falling due after
more than a year
Preferred stock may or may not be included
Leverage (Cont…)
Short-term bank loans may also be
included
The assumption is that the firm will need to
renew for a further term and so it is effectively a
form of LTD
If a firm has a lot of debt nearing maturity and
short-term loans and O/Ds then they cannot be
ignored
Some bankers add preferred capital to
equity
Leverage (Cont…)
A firm is said to be highly levered when
the leverage ratio exceeds 100%
There is no maximum or ideal level
Higher leverage indicates higher risk
Debtors
Working Capital…(Cont…)
These short-term assets, in the near
future, provide cash from trading
operations
Stockin trade will be sold
Debtors will pay what they owe
Working Capital…(Cont…)
Every business must buy goods and incur
expenses in connection with the sale of
goods and services before its customers
pay
No business can operate with 100% cash
sales
Thusworking capital has to be invested to
maintain stocks and debts
Working Capital…(Cont…)
The required WC can be reduced by
taking short-term credit
Aninvestment in stocks can be reduced if
suppliers give credit
Working Capital (Cont…)
Stocks, debtors, and creditors continually
change
Stocks are used or sold on credit
Debtors pay what they owe
Debtors
Cash Balances
Creditors
Financial flexibility
Depreciation = $25,000
Interest = $10,000
Liabilities Assets
Share Capital Cash = $50,000
= $50,000
Balance Sheet at the end of the year
Assets
Fixed assets = $125,000
Less: Depreciation = $25,000
Net Book Value = $100,000
Stock = 15,000
Debtors = $50,000
Cash = $90,000
Current assets = $105,000
Total Assets = $255,000
B/S (Cont…)
Liabilities
Share capital = $100,000
Long-term debt = $100,000
Creditors = $25,000
Wages = $75,000
Interest = $10,000
Examples
CAPEX
Payments for acquisitions
Purchase of financial securities
Payout of dividends
Discretionary (Cont…)
On the receipts side:
Sale of fixed assets
Sale of subsidiaries
Taxes and
Dividends if any
Judgment
A 1
x[1 − ]
r (1 +r ) N
Example
• A person has taken a loan of $10,000.
• It has to be paid back in 5 equal annual
installments.
• Interest rate is 10% per annum.
– L = A x PVIFA(10,5) = A x 3.7908
– A = 2,637.97
Amortization Schedule