Determining Optimal Staffing Levels in Multiple Skill Inbound Call Centers - a Literature Survey

M.J. Stegeman and M.H. Jansen-Vullers Technische Universiteit Eindhoven

Preface
This literature review aims to find techniques for determining the o timal staffing levels in a multi le s!ill in"ound call center. The domain of the research is therefore set to mainl# in"ound call centers $although also models of call centers handling in- and out"ound calls are descri"ed% that can handle multi le t# es of customers and service requests. Three hases of the $re%design rocess of staffing call center staffing are discussed to answer the research assignment& 1 'erformance measurements in call centers 2 (orecasting in ut arameters for call center modeling 3 )etermining $o timal% staffing levels in call centers This resulted in a ta"le overview with the different authors and their a roaches towards determining o timal staffing levels in call centers. *f course conclusions have "een drawn from the research and a list of future research areas and learning e+ eriences is rovided. ,n the literature research a num"er of e+isting a roaches is "eing descri"ed. This list is not com lete- of course. *n the one hand "ecause of the availa"le time to erform the literature research. *n the other hand "ecause the authors and a roaches listed in this literature research are "# far the most referred to in scientific literature. *ther authors and a roaches dealing with the research su".ect e+ist- "ut are not as renowned and widel# referred to as the ma.or art of the authors discussed in this literature review. The most im ortant characteristics- o".ectives and differences with other a roaches will "e rovided for ever# author and a roach descri"ed. )etails on s ecific characteristics or underl#ing mathematical models of the a roaches can either "e found in the a endices or in the articles of the referred authors. Mar! Stegeman Monique Jansen-Vullers

Contents
PREFACE
3 7 8

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 DEFINING RESEARCH AREA 1.2 RESEARCH QUESTION 8 1.3 METHODS AND APPROACH

2. CALL CENTER REPRESENTATION IN SCIENTIFIC LITERATURE 2.1 TERMINOLOGIES IN CALL CENTER PROCESSES 2.1.1 ACD and Human Resources 11 2.1.2 Important parameters 12 2.1.3 Time 13 2.2 CHARACTERISTICS IN CALL CENTER PROCESSES 2.2.1 Categorization of call centers 2.2.2 Skilled !ased Routing "S!R# 1$ 2.3 REPRESENTATIONS OF CALL CENTER PROCESSES 3.1 3.2 3.3 3. 3." 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9
11

11

13 13 16 19

3 (RE)DESIGN OF CALL CENTER STAFFING

MEHROTA (1997) AND MEHROTA AND FAMA (2003) AND (RE)DESIGN 19 GANS ET AL. (2003) AND REDESIGN 20 PRINCIPAL AGENT MODEL 22 !APF (200 ) AND REDESIGN 22 ERNST ET AL. (200 ) AND REDESIGN 22 HENDERSON AND MASON (1998) AND REDESIGN 23 CHAN (2003) AND REDESIGN 23 LIN# LAI AND HUNG (1998) AND O$ERLAPPING SCHEDULES AND SHIFTS IN THE UPCOMING CHAPTERS 2
25

23

4. PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENTS IN CALL CENTERS .1 ACCORDING TO GANS ET AL. (2003) 26 .2 ACCORDING TO PIN%ER AND SHUMS%& (2000) 27 .3 ACCORDING TO MEHROTA (1997) 27 . ACCORDING TO CHAN (2003) 28 ." ACCORDING TO HENDERSON AND MASON (1998) 28 .6 ACCORDING TO A%'IN AND HAR%ER (2003) 29 .7 ACCORDING TO MA!!UCHI AND (ALLACE (200 ) 29 .8 ACCORDING TO LIN# LAI AND HUNG (1998) 29 ".1 DIFFERENT APPROACHES TO(ARDS FORECASTING 30 $.1.1 %odel t&pes 3' $.1.2 Data gat(ering 31 $.1.3 Data processing and anal&sis 32 ".2 DETERMINING A)ANDONMENT AND RETRIAL )EHA$IOR OF CALLERS ".3 ERRORS AND PITFALLS IN FORECASTING 38

3"

6. APPROACHES TO DETERMINE (OPTIMAL) STAFFING 4 LEVELS.......... 1 6.1 ).1.1 ).1.2 ).1.3 6.2 ).2.1 ).2.2 6.3 ).3.1 ).3.2 ).3.3 6. ).,.1 ).,.2 QUEUEING THEOR& .............................................................................. 1

MODELS

, *rlang and +oisson................................................................................... 2 , -atekeepers and referrals......................................................................... 2 , S(ared resource as .ottleneck ser/er ....................................................... 3 SIMULATION MODELS......................................................................................... 0apf "2'',#1 Discrete e/ent simulation .................................................... Testing /alidit& and sensiti/it& 2it( simulation ........................................ , $ , $

MATHEMATICAL TOOLS FOR MINIMI!ATION PRO)LEMS ..................................... 6 , Integer +rogramming "I+# ........................................................................ ) , S3uare root staffing .................................................................................. 4 T(e 5p6 rule78 de 9:ricourt and 0(ou "2''3# ......................................... , ;

CONCLUSIONS FROM MODELING TECHNIQUES.................................................... 8 , Resource pooling ...................................................................................... ; $ Sensiti/it& .................................................................................................. ' 7 CONCLUSION, FUTURE RESEARCH AND 5 REFLECTIONS ...................... 3

7.1 7.2 7.3 7. 7."

" RESEARCH ASSIGNMENT .................................................................................... 3 " MA*OR FINDINGS................................................................................................ 3 " FUTURE RESEARCH ............................................................................................ 6 " MANAGERIAL IMPLICATIONS ............................................................................. 7 " LIMITATIONS AND LEARNING E+PERIENCES ...................................................... 8 6 1

REFERENCE S

APPENDICES .............................................................................................................. 6 ... 5 APPENDI+ A, ...................................................................... 6 " C

A L L C E N T E R C O N F I G U R A T I O N S ) A S E D O

APPENDI+ ),

!
A P F
( 2 0 0 )
DIM ENS ION S66

7 APPENDI+ C, .......................................................... 1 7 APPENDI+ D, ........................................... 3 M

A ! ! U C H I A N D

(
A L L A C E

( 2 0 0 ) P APPENDI+ E,
ER FO R M AN CE
MEAS UREM ENTS .

7 APPENDI+ F, ............................................................... 6 APPENDI+ G, ...................................................................................... 7 9

8 APPENDI+ H, ......................... 0

8 APPENDI+ I, H ...................................ASI*AETAL.(200")#TREATMENTTHRESHOLD%D 2 APPENDI+ *, ................................................................... 8 "

8 APPENDI+ %, ..................................... 7

1.

Introduction

3rowsing the am l# availa"le literature on call centers and all of its as ects one can find one s ecific definition of a call center that is referred to a lot. Mehrota $4556% gives a rather "road definition of a call center& "Any group whose principal business is talking on the telephone to customers or prospects." The grou can "e centrali7ed- geogra hicall# s read or com osed with agents in individual offices. 8owada#s call centers la# a considera"l# im ortant role in the service rocesses of com anies. The# are closest to the $ otential% customers and therefore have a ma.or influence on the customers9 erce tion of the com an#. ,n different media- results from surve#s at customer services $e.g. hel des!s and call centers% are u"lished- with erformance statistics and com an# com arisons. The influence of call centers in our service-driven economies has undou"tedl# grown last decade. This has "een recogni7ed in a lot of articles and "# com anies involved in the call center rocesses. (or e+am le :ans et al. $2;;/%- :rossman et al. $2;;4%- Mehrota $4556%- )awson $2;;0% and Stollet7 $2;;/% mention the rise of call center resence in the service "usiness and state this with im ressing num"ers of growth in call centers- em lo#ees and turnover. ,n the earl# #ears call centers were seen as cost centers $3a at and 'ruitte455<%. 8owada#s service has "ecome more im ortant and the call center is often the most im ortant wa# to communicate with customers. 'rocesses in call centers have $often% "ecome more com le+ $=in- =ai and Hung- 455<% and availa"le new technologies offer new ossi"ilities. To ta!e advantage and "enefit from these new develo ments a "usiness and managerial a roach is a necessit#. That is wh# com anies start loo!ing at call centers as rofit centers. 3ecause of this newl# ado ted a roach- techniques are develo ed to manage the call center rocesses at higher levels $strategic and tactical%. ,ntegration with "ac!-end rocesses and $information% s#stems within the com an# "ecomes necessar#. >esearch has resulted in man# techniques to su ort decisions to "e made in the $design of% call center rocesses where a "alance has to "e found among different o".ectives. :enerall# four main dimensions are distinguished in the effects of $re%design measures& 1 time2 cost3 qualit# and fle+i"ilit#. The trade-off that has to "e made "etween the different dimensions is often difficult. 3rand and Van der ?ol! $4551% clarif# this with the devil9s quadrangle $@ endi+ @%.
6

Defining research area To categori7e the call center- the characteristics mentioned in Stollet7 $2;;/% are used. 1 The functionalit# of the call center is offering hel des! servicesA 2 the initiation of contact has an in"ound characterA 3 the si7e of the hel des! is small $ma+imum of 41 - 0;%A the geogra h# feature is centrali7edA " the communication channels that are mainl# used are tele hone and mail. Hel des! services and in"ound calls are the most im ortant features to !ee in mind. (urthermore the calls have multi le t# es and therefore need multi le t# es of resourcesA generalists and s ecialists. The multi le communication channels $tele hone and mail% mean that a call center rocess can also "e seen as a contact center. @ccording to )awson $2;;0%& Contact centers handle more than the traditional voice call. These would be centers that handle voice plus fax, or email, live eb chat centers, video interactions ! all the many real and hypothetical customer interactions that are now possible". Scientific literature identifies different activities in the $re%design staffing call centers. :rossman et al. $2;;4% mention& 1. forecasting2. erformance estimation3. staff requirements. shift scheduling and ". rostering. rocess for

Stollet7 $2;;/% and Stollet7 and Hel"er $2;;0% mention the same activities for $re%design "ut leave out erformance estimation. @ll authors state that each stage is a research area itself and that the lanning rocess has a sequential and hierarchical structure. ,n articular the term forecasting needs some e+ lanation. 3# forecasting- the different authors mean the estimation of arrival rates and service times of the different t# es of casesBcalls that arrive at an in"ound call center. ,n this surve#- we will focus on the hases of forecasting- staff requirements lanning and erformance estimation. Shift scheduling and rostering are considered to "e other research areas and therefore out of the sco e of this literature review. The# deal with satisf#ing em lo#ee and organi7ational requirements and reventing under-utili7ation of resources. The other three hases are more aimed at long term lanning of $overall% staffing levels. 1.2 Research question

The o".ective of this re ort will "e to Cfind techni#ues for determining the optimal staffing levels in a multiple skill inbound call center C
<

The result of the literature reviewBthis re ort will "e an overview of availa"le techniques to determine o timal staffing levels from a strategic and tactical oint of view- including the techniques9 advantages and disadvantages. * timalit# is reached when $a mi+ of% o".ectives and erformance measures $is% are satisfied. The ossi"leBe+isting criteria for measuring o".ectives and erformance will also "e su".ect of the literature review. ,t will not "e a summar# of methods of erformance evaluation- "ut a search for techniques that su ort finding an o timal design. Terminolog# throughout scientific literature a ears not to "e consistent. Es eciall# the terms used for different t# es of resources are wides read and will "e defined in the u coming cha ter. ?oole- :ans- Mandel"aum $2;;0% and ?oole and Mandel"aum $2;;2% mention two techniques for call center anal#sis& to model the rocesses and to simulate them. @ccording to these authors the two t# es of anal#ses can not "e seen as se aratel# inde endent wa#s of su ort for call center rocess $re%design- "ut should "e used in com"ination to o"tain o timal- fine -tuned results. ,n this "usiness reengineering rocess the# will "oth "e used $for slightl# different goals% to o"tain the o timal mi+. Scientific literature a"out call centers has to "e u -to-date- "ecause of the rather fast develo ments and changes made in the area of customer service and call center management $?oole and Mandel"aum- 2;;2%. 3oo!s usuall# rovide a general and managerial a roach and not the latest techniques for solving com le+ ro"lems. @n effective overview of e+isting literature and research areas can "e found on a we" age- containing an u -to-date research "i"liogra h# $Mandel"aum- 2;;0%. 1.3 Methods and Approach

The remainder of this literature review is organi7ed as follows. ,n cha ter 2 an e+ lanation will "e given on what the general structure of a call center isA the wa# call centers are usuall# re resented in scientific literature and the common terms and techniques used in call centers. Dha ter / deals with the different e+isting a roaches towards $re%designing call center rocesses. @ num"er of authors and their a roaches will "e su".ect of discussion. The sco e of $re%design will "e to determine o timal staffing levels. Three relevant activities in the $re%design rocess of call center staffing $ erformance estimation- forecasting and determining staffing requirements% will "e discussed in the su"sequent cha ters. ,n cha ter 0 the different means of measuring erformance of call center rocesses will "e discussed "# mentioning different authors and their a roaches towards erformance measurement. Dha ter 1 will descri"e forecasting techniques to determineBestimate in ut arameters $arrival rates- service times and a"andonment "ehavior% for modeling. Dha ter 2 will discuss a roaches towards determining o timal staffing levels. Eueueing theor# and simulation
5

models will "e an im ortant su".ect of cha ter 2- ne+t to mathematical tools to solve minimi7ation ro"lems. The most im ortant findings in cha ters 2 to 2 will "e collected in a ta"le overview $a endi+ ?%. This ta"le will re resent some of the most relevant characteristics of the identified different a roaches towards determining o timal staffing levels for a multi le s!ill in"ound call center. ,n the final section- cha ter 6- conclusions and reflections on the literature review will "e discussed- together with limitations- future research and learning e+ eriences.

4;

2.

Call center representation in scientific literature

3ecause of differences in research "ac!grounds- authors- countries- cultureslanguages- time eriods and research o".ectives- different terminologies in and a roaches towards descri"ing- anal#7ing and $re%designing call center rocesses $or service rocesses in general% e+ist. (or this reason the different terms in and re resentation of call center rocesses that a ear in scientific literature will "e summed u and descri"ed in this cha ter. (irst $section 2.4% the terminolog# for all !inds of rocess arts will "e dealt with. Then- in section 2.2- a summar# of characteristics will "e rovided that different authors mention in their articles. ,n the area of call center rocess re resentation $in models and figures% a wide range of different forms of re resentation e+ists. Some useful and ractical re resentations of different structures and models will "e given $section 2./%. 2.1 Terminologies in Call Center processes

$.%.% AC& and 'uman (esources Fhen a customer calls for a service he or she usuall# enters an @utomated Dall )istri"utor $@D)% that is at the ver# "eginning of the call center $ rocess%. The @D) is art of the tele hon#-switch infrastructure $t# icall# hardware-- "ut recentl# more software-"ased% and routes calls to agents- while tracing and ca turing the histor# of each call. The call center or contact center thus "asicall# erforms two activities $Ga f- 2;;0% to handle incoming customer or service requests& (1) classification of the incoming request $"# the @D) or an agent% and if necessar# forward it to a qualified em lo#eeBagent. The request ma# have a standard or a s ecial nature. The request volume is artitioned "ecause of s eciali7ation and communication reasons. (2) handling the request "# roviding required information or "# erforming necessar# actions The term agent has alread# "een used for ersonnel occu #ing the call center in various ositions. ,n scientific literature a wide range of terms for Hagents9 comes forward as was alread# mentioned in the introduction. Ga f $2;;0% and >ei.ers and =imam $2;;1% for e+am le use the terms generalists and s ecialists $figure 4% as a distinction "etween different classes of agents in a call center.

Figure ! specialist vs" generalist

44

:eneralists and s ecialists are referred in this literature review. Doherence with other t# ologies will "e e+ lained when necessar#. (or e+am le fle+i"le resources and single s!ill servers have the same meaning as generalists and s ecialists. 1 Stollet7 $2;;/% defines a generalist as an agent that can handle all t# es of customers- and a s ecialist as an agent that can handle onl# one t# e of customer. 2 'in!er and Shums!# $2;;;% refer to use the terms fle+i"le and s eciali7ed wor!ers for generalists and s ecialists3 whereas Hasi.a et al. $2;;1% and Shums!# and 'in!er $2;;/% use gate!ee ers and e+ erts for generalists and s ecialists. @ "it different from these terms are seniors and .uniors $=in- =ai and Hung455<% and have to more to do with differences in e+ erience and res onsi"ilit# than with different s!ill levels. " 3lend agents are mentioned "# 'ichitlam!en et al. $2;;/% and ne+t to out"ound calls the# also handle overflow from in"ound $when waiting%- in the case of occu ied in"ound onl# agents. 6 Ma77uchi and Fallace $2;;0% do not ma!e the distinction "etween generalists and s ecialists- "ut set u a s!ill matri+ for ever# individual agent. The matri+ contains the s!ills agents have or have not. The assum tion made "# the authors that service times would not de end on server e+ erience is a rather unrealistic one. This t# e of agent seems to "e a generalist with some s ecialist s!ills. @s alread# stated in the introduction- the terms generalists and s ecialists are referred in the remainder of this literature re ort. )efinitions or qualifications of generalists and s ecialists are not unam"iguous in scientific literature. Ever# model or author uses a s ecific qualification for generalists and s ecialists and usuall# the two dimensions to which the agents are defined are& 1 T# eBnum"er of s!ills an agent has 2 The level at which the s!ills can "e erformed ,n general terms $ rovided "# Ga f- 2;;0% one would define generalists and s ecialists as& )eneralists usually handle the standard re#uests dealing with the processing of simple transactions, the modification of customer data or general enterprise or product information* actions where basic knowledge is re#uired. +pecialists with more specific, in,depth knowledge or special skills, deal with the more difficult re#uests that refer to technical problems, extensive consultations or complaints. $.%.$ -mportant parameters Some other terminologies that show u in almost ever# article $for e+am le ?oole and Mandel"aum- 2;;2 and :ans et al.- 2;;/% are I- lam"da and J- mu which
42

stand for res ectivel# the arrival rate of service requests and the handling time of a service request "# an agent $s ecialist or generalist%. These are im ortant rocess arameters that influence the occu anc# of the agents and the s eed of rocessing. The num"er of servers $K agents- generalists and s ecialists% also is art of the erformance of the call center rocess "ecause of cost as ects. ,n the ideal situation all customers that enter a call center with a service request are "eing served. 8aturall# this is not the case. The tele hone s#stem might "e overloaded "ecause the trun! ca acit# is too low. Ma77uchi and Fallace $2;;0% state that the trun!9s ca acit# is D L ?- where D is the num"er of resent agents in the call center and ? is the num"er of waiting s aces or "uffers to hold waiting callers. ,f the trun! is full- new callers are "loc!ed. ,f callersBcustomers are set on hold or have too wait too long the# "ecome im atient and hang u . This is called a"andonment in almost all scientific literature. *n occasion the terms "al!ing $Stollet7- 2;;/% and reneging are used. Some customers tr# to get in again- this is called retrial andBor .oc!e#ing $calling man# times%. The "ehavior of a"andoning customers $"ecause of im atience% is difficult to model. This su".ect will "e descri"ed in cha ter 1. $.%.. Time 'lanning staff on a short term "asis is out of the sco e of this research since the goal is to find the o timal staffing levels over some eriod of time $long term lanning%. ,n call center "usiness rostering and scheduling is t# icall# erformed on a dail# and wee!l# "asis- with ma#"e a ma+imum of four wee!s ahead $Henderson and Mason- 2;;0%. (act is that call centers have to deal with $overla ing% shifts and that rosters ma#"e overstaffed in certain time intervals and understaffed in other time intervals $Ernst et al.- 2;;0% in order to o"tain good- low-cost rosters that cover the wor!force requirements adequatel#. Time"loc!s $41- /; or 2; minutes% are usuall# used to decide how man# em lo#ees are needed for a $ articular art of the% da#. The @D) also records the call center data er time"loc!- for standard re orts on the hourl#- dail#- wee!l# and monthl# erformance. @nother im ortant restriction for determining staffing requirements is the fact that an em lo#ee is not availa"le for 4;;M- during its attendance. Mehrota and (ama $2;;/% use a shrin!age factor $for e+am le 4;M% to ta!e into account a certain amount of agent time that will "e lost- either in large "loc!s $unantici ated shift cancellations- artial da# a"sences for ersonal reasons% or in small "loc!s $late arrivals to the call center- e+tra-long "rea!s- tri s to the "athroom%. 2.2 Characteristics in call center processes

$.$.% Categori/ation of call centers @ call center can "e characteri7ed "# all !inds of characteristics. )e ending on the o".ectives- authors use a s ecific set of characteristics to descri"e a call
4/

center. Stollet7 $2;;/% uses four characteristics to descri"e the queueing model $cha ter 2% he uses for modeling call center rocesses& 1 customer rofile& arrival rocess er calling customer t# e and the atience of a articular customer class are descri"ed. 2 agent characteristic& two dimensions- the general qualification to handle a s ecific t# e of call $s!ill% and the distri"ution of the service time $s!ill level%. 3 routing olic#& which agent serves which customer ne+t. These decisions ma# de end on the state of the s#stem $num"er of waiting customers of different classes or the num"er of "us# agents%. the si7e of the waiting rooms& defines the ma+imum num"er of customers in the s#stem. @nother a roach is mentioned "# ?oole and Mandel"aum $2;;4% who categori7e along the following dimensions& 1 functionalit# $hel des!- emergenc#- telemar!eting- information rovidersetc.%2 si7e $from a few to several thousands of agent seats%3 geogra h# $single- vs. multi-location% agents charateristics $low-s!illed vs. highl#-trained- single- vs. multis!illed%- and " whether a call center handles in"ound or out"ound calls. *ther im ortant characteristics are the t# e of calls $single or multi le% and whether a call center is multi-la#ered or not $with or without a "ac!office of s ecialists%. Ga f $2;;0% distinguishes two im ortant characteristics to descri"e call center rocesses& 1 the level of difficult# of requests $standard vs. s ecial requests- alread# descri"ed "efore% 2 the communication channel $s#nchronous vs. a-s#nchronous%. S#nchronous communication ta!es lace if customer and agent are communicating with each other at the same time $e.g.- hone or chat%. E-mail and fa+ are e+am les for a-s#nchronous communication channels- where customer and agent do not need to get in contact at the same time and longer time intervals ass "# "etween single communication ste s. @ssigning service requests from a articular channel to a suita"le agent will "e dealt with later on in this literature re ort. ,n @ endi+ 3- ta"le 4 an overview is given of ossi"le tas!s of generalists and s ecialists in various call center configurations $two- or onelevel and "ac!-office%. @n interesting issue that Ga f "rings u is the fact that often an agent has to call "ac! to a customer to com lete the service- a characteristic which is often ignored "# other authors when modeling a call center.
40

Henderson and Mason $455<% use characteristics to descri"e call centers that are mentioned "efore and the# also rovide factors that can com licate the rather sim le descri tions. (or e+am le- var#ing arrival rates of calls and a"andoning customerscustomers can have higher or lower riorities- multi le t# es of calls $and therefore need to "e assigned $if ossi"le% to a articular su"set of agents% and the num"er of availa"le agents ma# var# through the da#. Var#ing arrival rates ma# "e caused "# un redicta"le factors "ut also "# redicta"le factors and triggers $:ans et al.- 2;;/%. @t certain times e+ternal factors $e.g. seasonal or romotional activities% can influence the attern of arrivals.

@nother im ortant as ect that was found in scientific literature $:ans et al.- 2;;/Mehrota 4556% a"out call centers is the fact that human resources often account for 1;M-61M of the o erating e+ enses of a call center- which means human resources act as a "ottlenec! during call center rocess $re%design. Some discussions are found concerning shared resources $e.g. information s#stem or data"ase%- acting as a "ottlenec! in a call center $@!Nin and Har!er- 2;;/%. Since onl# few authors "ac!u this thesis and use it for a certain t# e of call center- the shared resource is generall# not seen as "ottlenec!. $.$.$ +killed,0ased,(outing 1+0(2 The routing olic# that is mentioned "# ?oole and Mandel"aum $2;;2% is the so called S!ill-3ased->outing $S3>%- which differs for e+am le from the (irst-Dome(irst-Served $(D(S% strateg#. S3> can "e art of an advanced @D) $also according to Ma77uchi and Fallace- 2;;0% and can "e seen as the strateg# to match callers and agents. Es eciall# when call centers have multi le t# es of customers and multi le t# es of tas!s to erform. @ common wa# of im lementing s!ill-"ased routing is "# s ecif#ing two selection rules& 1. agent selection - how does an arriving call select an idle agent- if there is oneA 2. call selection - how does an idle agent select a waiting call- if there is one. :ans et al. $2;;/% use the same descri tion for the S3> routing olic#. Ever# agent has an individual su"set of s!ills- so each s!ill has a grou of suita"le agents. The authors also rovide a nice e+am le of S3> in a endi+ D- figure 45. 3ec!er et al $4555% also tal! a"out S3> as the routing olic# for routing service requests. ,n :ans et al. $2;;/% and :arnett and Mandel"aum $2;;4% a series of canonical designs $a endi+ D- figure 4<% have "een rovided to give an overview of ossi"le routings of calls through a call center. Ma77uchi and Fallace $2;;0% rovide a ractical olic# for S3> "# using the =,@> olic# for arriving service requests. The =,@> olic# stands for =ongest-,dle@gent->outing and sends calls to the agents that have "een waiting the longest for a call since the com letion of their last .o" $i.e.- idle the longest%. To ad.ust for rioritiesthe =,@> olic# sends calls to the agents that have "een waiting the longest $or idle the longest% and have the highest s!ill-level to handle the call. Fhen an agent "ecomes free and if there are no customers in the agent9s
41

rimar# s!ill queue- the first customer in the agents secondar# s!ill queue is ta!en. 2.3 Representations of call center processes

Some e+am les of how to schematicall# re resent the $general% rocess in a call center will "e rovided in this section. @ ver# "asic re resentation $figure 2% can "e found in ?oole and Mandel"aum $2;;2% and in :ans et al. $2;;/% and it descri"es the relationshi s among the main terms in call center rocesses. Dalls come in at a certain arrival rate $arrivals% and are lost- queued- lost "ecause of longtime queueing or re-queued $retrial%. Dalls can thus either "e lost or solved "# an agent. @fter a call has "een solved or dealt with- a customer can return $redial% with a call related to the same ro"lem.

Figure #! simple representation of a call center process

:ans et al. $2;;/% also give a more technical a roach towards the re resentation of a call center $figure /%. 'ST8 stands for H u"lic switched tele hone networ!9 and it leads callers through the trun! lines to the '@3O $ rivate automatic "ranche e+change- a rivate switch% of the com an#9s call center. The '@3O leads calls to either the ,V>BV>U $interactive voice res onse B

voice res onse unit% unit or the @D). The ,V> unit or V>U is a s eciali7ed com uter that allows customers to communicate their needs and to Pself-serve.Q Dustomers interacting with an ,V> use their tele hone !e# ads or voices to rovide information. DT, $com uter tele hone integration% server and the customer data server are used to more closel# integrate the tele hone and information s#stems $e.g. Dustomer >elationshi Management- D>M%. Fith hel of ,V>BV>U- @D) and servers- calls are led to the right agent.

Figure $! sc%ematic tec%nology diagram of a call center

42

,n the terminolog# $gate!ee ers and referrals% of Hasi.a et al. $2;;1% and Shums!# and 'in!er $2;;/% the re resentation of a call center rocess loo!s li!e figure 0. @gain a ver# "asic view- on the rinci les of gate!ee ers and referrals. @ccording to the authors the erformance of a call center and the "ehavior of an agent $gate!ee er% mainl# de end on the rescri"ed referral rate $the rate at which wor! is routed from generalists to s ecialists%. ,f a call is too difficult to "e handled and solved "# the gate!ee er- he or she refers the call to a s ecialist. The authors call it a triaging s#stem- "ecause customers first interact with a generalist who determines if the customer requires the attention of a s ecialist or not.

Figure &! gatekeeper and referral configuration of a call center

Ga f $2;;0% uses a !ind of 'etri-net wa# of re resenting the rocess in a call center $figure 1%. He differs from Hasi.a et al. $2;;1% and Shums!# and 'in!er $2;;/% "ecause- as mentioned in section 2.2.4- he distinguishes "etween two t# es of

request $standard and s ecial% which are handled "oth in a different wa#. The difficult# of a service request is !nown u front- whereas Hasi.a et al. $2;;1% and Shums!# and 'in!er $2;;/% assume an agent $gate!ee er% can first tr# to successfull# treat a service request. Standard requests are classified and handled "# generalists and s ecial requests are first classified "# generalist and then handled "# s ecialists. The 'etri-net rinci les are used- which means that a call can onl# "e classified $and ossi"l# handled% when a requests arrives and a generalist is free.

46

Figure '! ()o-level design of a call center process

,n @ endi+ 3- figures 42 to 41- more t# es of configurations of a call center rocess can "e found. @ short descri tion is rovided with the figures. @lso ver# interesting rocess models of a call center with out-calls and with waiting tolerance of customers with s#nchronous requests are rovided "# Ga f $2;;0%. The model can also "e found in @ endi+ 3 $figure 42%.

4<

*+e,design of Call Center staffing

Section 4.4 a"out defining the research alread# mentioned redesign a roaches from a num"er of different authors $:rossman et al. 2;;4- Stollet7 and Hel"er 2;;0 and Stollet7 2;;/%. The five general- distinct activities in staffing rocess that are distinguished "# :rossman et al. $2;;4% are& 1. forecasting2. erformance estimation3. staff requirements. shift scheduling- and ". rostering. Each of these activities is a research area itself. *f course details ma# var# at different call centers. @s e+ lained in section 4.4- the latter two activities our outside of the sco e. Usuall# the redesign of an e+isting call center rocess is su".ect of discussion in scientific literature. The use of historical and real data is namel# ver# im ortant in case of re-engineering rocesses that are driven "# stochastic factors. ?oole and Mandel"aum $2;;2% su ort this "# stating that the use of forecast and staffing models must "e "ased on anal#tical models and real data if it wants to have an# ractical value. Management decides whether or not a redesign is necessar#. @ redesign can "e necessar# "ecause of lac!ing erformance $for e+am le "ecause of a "ottlenec!% of the e+isting call center- changing o".ectives of a call center or minimi7ing costs. The relationshi of redesign with erformance measures is close. Donclusions from erformance measurement are used to change the structure- staffing or rocedures of a call center. @ redesign can "e directl# im lemented or first tested in a modelA of course with corres onding erformance measures. ,n this cha ter a num"er of authors and their view on $re%designing call center staffing will "e listed $section /.4 to /.<%. @t the end of the cha ter a short e+ lanation for the content of the su"sequent cha ters will "e rovided $section /.5%. 3.1 Mehrota (1997) and Mehrota and Fama ( !!") and (re)design

Mehrota $4556% rovides 0 fundamental questions for the $re%design of a call center& 1 How man# calls will we getR 2 How man# eo le do we need on staffR 3 FhenBhow should these agents "e hired- trained and scheduledR Fhat will this costR To ma!e sure all these questions are answered correctl# for mid- and long-term lanning- a tool- generall# called For!force Management $F(M% software is availa"le. F(M is articularl# suita"le for da#-to-da# o erations $:ans et al.45

2;;/%. F(M uses other tools to forecast calls $for a articular time eriod%- to determine the required num"er of agents in seats and to assign agents to schedules. This last tool is outside the sco e of the research question in this re ort. Mehrota $4556% slightl# ignores the im ortance of a more strategic a roach which would deal with su".ects li!e t# es of agents- routing olicies and qualit# of service. @ "etter .o" was done "# Mehrota and (ama $2;;/% who again use the dimensions from figure 2 $cha ter 0% to "ase their decision su ort model on. The trade-off is again "etween costs- service qualit# and em lo#ee satisfaction. The dilemma call center managers should deal with is reflected "# a list of im ortant $and more s ecific% questions& 1 How man# agents should we have on staff with which articular s!illsR How should we schedule these agents9 shifts- "rea!s- lunches- trainingmeetings and other activitiesR 2 How man# calls of which t# e do we e+ ect at which timesR 3 How quic!l# do we want to res ond to each t# e of in"ound callR How should we cross-train our agentsR How should we route our calls to ma!e the "est use of these resourcesR " :iven a forecast- a routing design- and an agent schedule- how well will our s#stem erformR 6 Fhat is our overall ca acit#R How will a s i!e in call volumes im act our overall erformanceR 7 How is our center doing right nowR Fhat has changed since we did our last forecast and u"lished our schedulesR ,f the changes are significant what can , do to res ond to minimi7e the im act on the rest of the da# or wee!R This rovides a much wider range of areas on which managers of call centers have to ma!e decisions. To solve these ro"lems- mathematical modelswor!load forecast models and simulation of different ossi"le design solutions are used to su ort decisions. 3.2 #ans et al$ ( !!") and redesign

:ans et al. $2;;/% s ea! of ca acit# management on different hierarchical levels. @t ever# level an anal#tical model su orts decision-ma!ing& 1. Eueueing erformance models $section 2.4% for low-level staffing decisions2. mathematical rogramming models $section 2./% for intermediate-level ersonnel scheduling3. and long-term lanning models for hiring and training. The rimar# interest for this literature investigating re ort is the lowest level& queueing erformance. @t the intermediate-level it might "e interesting to see $for a wee! or a month% how man# agents should generall# "e availa"le. To have in ut for the model at the lowest level- correct forecasting models and estimation rocedures are ver# im ortant. @n interesting remar! the authors made at the
2;

highest level is the fact that em lo#ee turnover can "e significant at certain call centers- which ossi"l# causes ro"lems with hiring and training. @nother im ortant design consideration management faces- is the choice for an effective routing olic#. The authors state that d#namic rogramming $)'% is a wa# to solve this ro"lem- although it is a rather im ractical one. ,n Hillier and =ie"erman $4551% )' is descri"ed as a ver# useful technique for ma!ing a sequence of interrelated decisions. ,t requires formulating an a ro riate recursive relationshi for each individual ro"lem. Es eciall# time-consuming and difficult when the su".ect of research or redesign is a com le+ and large call center with man# t# es of calls. This would cause an e+ losion of the dimensionalit# of the state s ace. Though with modern com uter technolog# such enumerations should not ta!e too much time. (or small call centers )' could "e a good solution- "ut for more com le+ call centers a model for reducing com le+it# $:ans et al.- 2;;/% is necessar#. This leads to& 1. t# olog# sim lification "# using classical canonical designs for S3> which was shown "efore in section 2.2 and can also "e found in a endi+ Dfigures 4< and 45. 2. control sim lification- which uses for e+am le fi+ed- static riorit# olicies. 3. as#m totic anal#sis- which is meant for heav# traffic call centers. Two as#m totic regimes have "een considered "# the authors& 1. Efficienc# )riven regime- which turns out to "e ina ro riate for in"ound call centers with heav# traffic. Too much dela# in the rocessing of different t# es of calls is allowed "ecause of efficienc# o".ectives. 2. Eualit#-Efficienc# )riven regime has the more qualitative goal to find a routing of calls where a significant fraction of the customers find idle servers u on arrival. The EE) com le+it# stems from the a"sence of com lete resource ooling $section 2.0% and the fact that the agent-selection ro"lem la#s an im ortant role. ,n the area of EE) routing olicies- a lot of research is "eing done at the moment on square-root laws and V-design $see also a endi+ D- figure4<%. :iven a Vdesign- the EE) regime is straightforward to characteri7e as sim l# maintaining square-root safet# staffing. Hasi.a et al. $2;;1% also use the square-root staffing rule and heuristics to determine o timal staffing for "oth tiers- given an# articular referral rate in their gate!ee er-s ecialist s#stem. The rules and heuristics rovide quic! solving ossi"ilities and characteri7ation of effects $sensitivit#% of certain arameters on the o timal solution. (urthermore it allows for direct com arison "etween one- and two-tier s#stems and thus com arison "etween e+treme s#stems $onl# generalists or onl# s ecialists% and mi+es of different t# es of agents. The square-root staffing rule and heuristics will "e dealt with more s ecificall# in section 2./.2.

24

%rincipal agent model :ans et al. $2;;/% shortl# mention future directions of multidisci linar# research in $re%designing call center rocesses. *ne of their ro ositions is the use of a model from microeconomics to rovide insight in the ossi"le outcomes of ro osed s#stem designs& the rinci al agent model. Hasi.a et al. $2;;1% and Shums!# and 'in!er $2;;/% "ase their model on the assum tions and tools of the rinci al-agent model. The# define it as the difference in references "etween gate!ee er and rinci al and there ma# "e information as#mmetr# "etween the rinci al and the agent $in our case the gate!ee er - "ut not the firm - ma# see the details of each customer9s ro"lem and the suita"ilit# of the gate!ee er9s s!ills for that customer%. The agent faces a decision that is- in some wa#s- more general than the standard Peffort-levelQ decision. Here- the gate!ee er ma# or ma# not refer to ut in effort $treat customers%- and the firm9s rofit is not monotone in the treatment rate. @ gate!ee er who rovides too little or too much treatment ma# significantl# reduce the firm9s rofits. 3. &apf ( !!') and redesign

@nother a roach towards $re%designing call center rocesses can "e derived from Ga f $2;;0% who defines / design dimensions& 1 Tas! allocation to generalists andBor s ecialists 2 (ront-office and "ac!-office roles 3 )egree of integration of s#nchronous and a-s#nchronous requests ,n figure 1 and a endi+ 3 $figures 42 to 41% several ossi"le configurations of call center rocesses can "e found- designed along the three dimensions mentioned a"ove. The modeling com le+it# of these configurations can "e quite high "ecause of the use of queueing theor# and linear rogramming- =' $section 2./%. *nl# sim le designs have "een anal#7ed under strong restrictions. Ga f therefore uses discrete event simulation- which overcomes the restrictions and therefore rocess designs are more close to realit#. 3." (rnst et al$ ( !!') and redesign

Ernst et al. $2;;0% use mathematical models and algorithms to "uild a rostering tool. The rocess to develo the rostering tool is interesting- since it shows quite an overla with identified activities in other design rocesses. The authors identif# three activities to develo the rostering tool& 1 @ demand modeling stud# that collects and uses historical data to forecast demand for services and converts these to the staffing levels needed to satisf# service standards 2 Donsideration of the solution techniques required for a ersonnel scheduling tool that satisfies the constraints arising from wor! lace regulations while "est meeting a range of o".ectives including coverage of staff demand- minimum cost and ma+imum em lo#ee satisfaction 3 S ecification of a re orting tool that dis la#s solutions and rovides erformance re orts
22

@ctuall# onl# the first and art of the last activit# are interesting for this literature research. (urthermore the authors state that queuing models are elegant and ma# give anal#tical results "ut generall# man# real world sim lifications need to "e made. Simulation can ta!e man# ractical factors into account "ut these ma# "e ver# com utationall# e+ ensive solutions. Sometimes- queueing models and simulation are com"ined to o"tain ideal staff requirements. *ther authors mention this o tion as well. (or e+am le Mehrota $4556% and :rossman et al. $4555%. 'ichitlam!en et al. $2;;/% descri"e it as follows& the simulation model is used to erform what-if scenarios- "ecause of high fle+i"ilit#. The queueing model $DTMD- Mar!ov% is used to a ro+imate the s#stem erformance measures. DTMD models are insightful- relativel# easier to construct. 3.6 )enderson and Mason (199*) and redesign

Two hases or activities in the rostering ro"lem are identified "# Henderson and Mason $455<% and also "# Mehrota $4556%. (irst staffing requirements for each eriod of the da# are determined using queueing models andBor simulation. Three a roaches to com lete this first hase e+ist& 1. Stead#-state queueing models rovide e+cellent a ro+imations to the num"er of service agents required. Unfortunatel#- fast convergence to stead#-state is not t# ical for these s#stems. 2. @ttem t to numericall# calculate- or a ro+imate- the time var#ing distri"ution of :*S $overall :rade of Service%. 3. Use simulation to o"tain a required num"er of agents in each eriod of the da#. ,n the second hase- one attem ts to "uild staff rosters that cover these staffing requirements using integer rogramming formulations of set covering ro"lems $out of sco e%. This two hase rocedure is an im rovement over heuristic rostering- although it is not entirel# satisfactor#. The lin!ing "etween ad.acent time"loc!s is missing. @ solution can "e iteration of the design rocess until convergence $>,,'S& >ostering "# ,terating ,nteger 'rogramming and Simulation%. 3.7 Chan ( !!") and redesign

3ased on the identified ?e# *ut ut 'erformance Varia"les $?*'V% and the ?e# ,n ut 'erformance Varia"les $?,'V% "# Dhan $2;;/% a num"er of activities can "e erformed to design an effective wor!flow for call centers using simulation tools. Simulation ena"les d#namic anal#sis- which is necessar# to anal#7e rocesses. @ list of ste s in the design rocess is rovided in a endi+ :. 3.8 +in, +ai and )ung (199*) and o-erlapping schedules and shifts

*verla ing staffing schedules and shifts are su".ect in a lot of scientific literature. Man# call centres have to deal with that su".ect too- although not all in such an e+treme manner as mentioned in =in- =ai and Hung $455<%. Their case
2/

deals with a 20H hotline service- while a articular call center ma# onl# have a few hours of overla ing $em lo#ee% schedules. The authors use an integrated a roach- on a monthl# "asis- in which one of the final stages towards scheduling is the activit# that im lies the use of historical data- the choice for call center configuration and other information $a endi+ (- figure 24%. @ regression model leads to a simulation model- with outcomes that can "e used to ma!e decisions for rostering and scheduling $heuristics%. 3.9 .n the upcoming chapters

@s mentioned "efore- onl# three of five $re%design hases are within the sco e of this literature review. ,n the following cha ters the three relevant hases will "e su".ect of discussion& 1 Dha ter 0& 'erformance measurements in Dall Denters 2 Dha ter 1& (orecasting in ut arameters for modeling Dall Denters 3 Dha ter 2& @ roaches to determine $o timal% staffing levels The findings from the different cha ters will "e summari7ed- "# author $and thus "# a roach%- in a ta"le overview which can "e found in a endi+ ? $ta"le 1%. ,n a endi+ ? a summar#Blisting is rovided from the results of cha ters 2 to 2. @ num"er of the authors resenting a $re%design a roach towards determining staffing levels for call centers will "e listed. (or these authors the ta"le re resents the authors9 name- the characteristics of the $re%design a roach- the t# olog# of the human resources occu #ing the call center- the t# e of measurements and the s ecial characteristics $com ared to the other a roaches and authors%.

20

Performance measurements in Call Centers

*ne of the activities in the rocess of staffing call centers is to determine how erformance of a call center is measured. )e ending on the main o".ectives of a call center- one might use a s ecific criterion or a mi+ of criteria to measure a call center9s erformance. ?oole and Mandel"aum $2;;2% state that usuall# the service level must hold for ever# time interval $time"loc!%- while ?oole and van der Sluis $2;;/% em hasi7e the advantages of loo!ing at an overall service level. (or dee er needs $e.g. statistical anal#sis% erformance should "e o"served at high resolution- so the a ro riate frequenc# would "e ever# /; or 2; minutes. (or overall erformance of a call center it is allowed to use averaging over a series of time intervals. Fhether or not a call center erforms well- mainl# de ends on the wa# it is measured and on which criteria the .udgment is "ased. The choice for a articular erformance measure is a fundamental trade-off $?oole and Mandel"aum- 2;;2% within an organi7ation. 1 Measuring the o erational service level is t# icall# done with erformance measures focused on a"andonment- waiting andBor retrialsA useful in an efficienc#-driven environment. 2 @t the other e+treme one finds the qualit#-driven environment- in which for e+am le the utili7ation of agents is measured. 3 Usuall# qualit# and efficienc# are "alanced in a Prationali7edQ game. @ ossi"le mi+ of erformance measurements $?oole and Mandel"aum- 2;;2% could "e a"andonment- average s eed of answer $@S@%- average handling time $@HT- service duration% and agent utili7ation. >ei.ers and =imam $2;;1% state that usuall# 0 main dimensions are distinguished in the effects of $re%design measures& time- cost- qualit# and fle+i"ilit#. The tradeoff that has to "e made is often difficult. 3rand and Van der ?ol! $4551% state this with their view on the ro"lem& the devil9s quadrangle $@ endi+ @%. ,n call center terminolog# time would "e average waiting and service time- cost would "e the cost for agents on the hone- qualit# and fle+i"ilit# would "e related to the num"er of generalists and s ecialists and their $qualified% s!ills. Sometimes not all dimensions are relevant. This de ends on the situation and the circumstances. @n e+am le of com eting effects is rovided in figure 6. ,n a general situation with adding more s ecialists- the costs of s!illed agents and customer9s time in the s#stem will roughl# remain the same- the fle+i"ilit# will decrease $less generalists% and the qualit# of service will increase.

21

Figure -! effects of more specialists

,n this cha ter a num"er of !nown and widel# used erformance measurements will "e listed "# author- from section 0.4 u to section 0.<. .1 According to #ans et al$ ( !!")

@ccording to :ans et al. $2;;/% there are three commonl# used views on qualit# in call center "usiness& 1 @ccessi"ilit# $measured with waiting times- a"andonment- etc.% 2 Effectiveness $for e+am le measured "#& solved the ro"lem or notR% 3 Dontent of interactions $measured "#& listening to s ecific calls- customer erce tion surve#s%

)ail# ractice usuall# deals with the o erational side of service qualit#. Fith F(M the central dilemma is the utili7ation rate of the agents. Higher rates mean longer waiting times in queues and thus lower accessi"ilit#. Dall center goals are formulated as the rovision of a given level of accessi"ilit#- su".ect to a s ecified "udget constraint. Dommon ractice is that u er management decides on the desired service level and then call center managers are called on to defend their "udget. S#stem erformance can "e measured "# queueing models which are "ased on given assum tions on rimitives $arrivals- service times and num"er of agents% and the relationshi s among them. (urthermore the desired service level has to "e "ased on customer atience- which can "e different for a num"er of t# es of customers. Dustomers with ,nternet questions ma# "e more atient than customers with tele hone questions. Some authors even thin! of two dimensions of customer atience and distinguish "etween time willing and e+ ecting to wait. @ 'atience ,nde+ can "e derived from e+ ectations of the "oth dimensions $:ans et al.- 2;;/% and is used to evaluate the real "ehavior of customers.
22

Most erformance measures are correlated. (or e+am le- the average waiting time is linearl# related to the fraction of a"andoning customers. This im lies that onl# one statistic has to "e measured and the other one can "e derived through interference. >esearch "# 3rown et al. $2;;2% shows ea!ing of arrival ratesservice times and dela# in queues all tends to ha en at the same time. @nal#sis reveals the fact that ea! hours are the convenient hours for customers with longer service times to call. .2 According to %in/er and 0hums/1 ( !!!)

'in!er and Shums!# $2;;;% mention Eualit# of Service as the main measure for s#stem erformance. Eualit# of Service $EoS% de ends mainl# on the fraction of customers served and therefore the EoS is directl# related to the revenues of the s#stem. Eueues and waiting times are ignored- which is rather a dou"tful roceeding- "ecause the# are not "eing ignored "# other researchers and authors. Ga f $2;;0% for e+am le states that the "asic !nowledge to understand the efficienc# of rocess designs comes from queueing theor#. 'in!er and Shums!# $2;;;% though state that this structure ca tures the !e# relationshi s "etween service standards- la"or costs- and server utili7ation while "eing more amena"le to anal#sis than s#stems with queueing. The service standards are determined e+ogenousl# and a ear as constraints in the model $average waiting time- fraction of customers served%. .3 According to Mehrota (1997)

@ccording to Mehrota $4556% the !e# erformance metric for call center managers is service level- which is defined as the ercentage of customers who wait less than some target "efore reaching an agent. =oo!ing from a queueing theor# ers ective the service level is more a function of several varia"lesincluding call arrivals- call handling time and the num"er of agents on staff. (aced with tight "udgets the usual trade-off is "etween service level and costs. Mehrota and (ama $2;;/% add an e+tra dimension to this trade-off with em lo#ee satisfaction $figure 6%. )ue to the increased im ortance of call centers and its service deliver#- the authors recogni7e the im ortance of the well"eing of call center agents.

Figure .! t%e call center balancing act

26

According to Chan ( !!") @ ver# o erational and quantitative a roach towards call center wor!flow and erformance is rovided "# Dhan $2;;/%. Dhan defines ?e# 'erformance ,n ut and *ut ut varia"les& ?',V and ?'*V. Main erformance measure for the out ut of a call center according to Dhan is the effectiveness and its ?'*Vs are& 1 The num"er of rocessed calls 2 Through ut time 3 Faiting time The num"er of reneging customers " The cost of rocessing a single call Dhan also identifies several ossi"le ?',Vs that affect the ?'*Vs& 1 The arrival rate. @n increase will increase the load of the call center- which will result in longer waiting times for each call. 2 The num"er of resources availa"le. This affects costs- ca acit#- average waiting time and through ut time of the call center. 3 The num"er of research call. Time to collect more information on a ro"lem. The rocess time of each call. The time required to com lete each call. " Time to renege& allowa"le time a caller will tolerate "efore hanging u . ." According to )enderson and Mason (199*)

Henderson and Mason $455<% also have a rather one-sided a roach towards qualit# of customer9s service- which the# define in terms of a measure called customer grade of service $D:*S%. The D:*S t# icall# de ends on the customer9s waiting time in queue. 3# averaging one ma# o"tain an overall grade of service $:*S%. The authors develo ed a model using utilit# curves- reflecting the effect of different waiting times in the queue on the customer9s satisfaction. These utilit# curves can var# from customer to customer. @ single utilit# curve was chosen the authors "elieved to "e re resentative- and the# attem ted to minimi7e some statistic associated with customer utilities. The utilit# curve is called a D:*S. Dustomers receive a D:*S corres onding to their waiting times. This wa# various customer service requirements ma# "e s ecified. (or e+am le& 1 D:*S should e+ceed 1; for all customers. 2 51M of customers must receive a D:*S S <;. 3 ,n an# 2 hour window- the average customer D:*S should e+ceed <;. )uring ea! times average D:*S should e+ceed 1;- otherwise it should e+ceed <;. " The e+ ected D:*S for a customer arriving at an# time throughout the da# should e+ceed <;.

2<

According to A/2in and )ar/er ( !!") * timalit# is defined in the same economic sense as in @ndrews and 'arsons $455/%. This allows one to ca ture the characteristic that revenues are a direct function of staffing decisions- and is different from the revailing a roach of minimi7ing costs. This t# e of o".ective function is the a ro riate one for service s#stems that are rofit centers of some sort. Since measuring qualit# is e+tremel# difficult- the authors want to determine economicall# o timal staffing levelsdefined as those levels that ma+imi7e total revenues net of staffing costs for the service s#stem. These economicall# o timal staffing levels can "e determined for a loss s#stem. The authors state that revenue is generated "# serving a customer. Each time a customer is lost- the s#stem incurs a revenue loss. Thusin order to relate staffing decisions to revenues- one needs to characteri7e the customer loss as a function of the num"er of servers. .7 According to Ma33uchi and 4allace ( !!')

Ma77uchi and Fallace $2;;0% rovide a list with some commonl# used erformance metrics. 1 the ro"a"ilit# that an arriving caller is "loc!ed 2 s eed-to-answer erformance measures 3 trac!ing agent9s utili7ation The first two erformance metrics are usuall# included in the Service =evel @greement. The last erformance metric normall# contains several su"measurements. ,n a endi+ E some more detailed information is rovided a"out the s ecific formulas of the erformance metrics. .8 According to +in, +ai and )ung (199*)

=in- =ai and Hung $455<% use a ver# sim le erformance measure. 3# using the @D) re ort $@ endi+ (% the s#stem erformance is measured "# means of the call a"andonment rate- defined "# $a"and calls%B$@D) calls L a"and calls% where a"and calls and @D) calls denote the num"ers of a"andoned calls $after entering the queue% and com leted calls- res ectivel#.

25

'

Forecasting input parameters for modeling call centers

,n section 4.4 and cha ter / forecasting has alread# "een mentioned as art of the $re%design activities of call center rocesses. Since the o".ective of man# a roaches towards $re%design is to first "uild a model of the e+isting call center rocess- determining in ut arameters for the model is a ver# im ortant art of the $re%design rocess. )etermination is mainl# done with forecasting techniques and with ma!ing assum tions. Sometimes assum tions can "e made a"out certain events that will ha en in the future- li!e u coming shi mentsadvertisements or in other words& redicta"le events. ,n this cha ter we will descri"e forecasting and the different a roaches towards forecasting and the availa"le techniques to do so. 3# forecasting- the different authors of scientific literature mean the estimation of arrival rates and service times of the different t# es of casesBcalls that arrive at an in"ound call center. (orecasting calls is t# icall# driven "# a com"ination of historical data- time series models and e+ ert .udgment $Mehrota and (ama- 2;;/% to determine call volumes and average handling time. (orecasts should "e determined for each queue for each time interval in the simulation eriod. Mehrota $4556% notes the im ortance of a"andonment and calling "ac! "# stating that along with traditional forecasting issues such as data availa"ilit#- data integrit#- seasonalit# and nonstationar# randomness- a"andonment ma!es call forecasting more challenging than sim l# fitting a regression model to historical call volumes- articularl# since there is usuall# no wa# to tell if an a"andoned call led to a call "ac! later on. ,n the remainder of this cha ter a num"er of authors and the forecasting techniques the# deal with will "e descri"ed $section 1.4%. Section 1.2 will descri"e different a roaches towards determining a"andonment and retrial "ehavior of callers. ,n forecasting there are man# wa#s to ma!e mista!es with historical data. Section 1./ will deal with the ossi"le itfalls. ".1 Different approaches to5ards forecasting

3.%.% 4odel types :ans et al. $2;;/% and ?oole and Mandel"aum $2;;2% "oth mention two main activities in determining in ut data for further call center modeling. ,n ut data can "e for e+am le arrival atterns- service durations and caller9s atience "ehavior. ,n the first stage data can "e anal#7ed with three ossi"le t# es of models& 1 Em irical or descri tive model. Suita"le for organi7ing and summari7ing the data "eing anal#7ed. The sim lest of these are ta"les or histograms of arameters and erformance. 2 Theoretical model- which see!s to test whether or not the henomenon "eing o"served- conforms to various mathematical or statistical theories. E+am les include the identification of an arrival rocess as a 'oisson
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rocess $queueing model% or of service durations as "eing e+ onentiall# distri"uted. 1 E+ lanator# model. ,n-"etween the descri tive and the theoretical model falls the e+ lanator# model. ,t is often created in the conte+t of regression and time-series anal#sis. The e+ lanator# model goes "e#ond- sa#histograms "# identif#ing and ca turing relationshi s in terms of e+ lanator# varia"les. @t the same time- this model falls short of the theoretical model in that there is no attem t to develo or test a formal mathematical theor# to e+ lain the relationshi s. The em irical and theoretical models are mainl# used to draw conclusions on the rimitives $"asic arameters% of call center rocesses. Eueueing models are theoretical models which mathematicall# define relationshi s among "uilding "loc!s- for e+am le- arrivals and services. Eueueing anal#sis of a given model starts with assum tions concerning its rimitives and leads to ro erties of erformance measures- such as the distri"ution of dela# in queue or the a"andonment rate. Validation of the model then amounts to a com arison of its rimitives and erformance measures - t# icall# theoretical - against their corres onding arameters in a given call center - mostl# em irical. ,n the second stage- after data anal#sis- the forecasting activities can "e e+ecuted on the "asis of the models mentioned a"ove. 3.%.$ &ata gathering
Usuall# data is gathered from the @D) $and ,V>% and ut in @D) re orts. ,deall# would "e the recording of transactional data er individual call- for the ur ose of anal#sis $?oole and Mandel"aum- 2;;2%. Fith the num"er of agents and $historical% data er time"loc!- arrival rocess and service times can "e anal#7ed. @lso data of a"andoning customers is recorded "# the @D). 'ichitlam!en et al. $2;;/% warn that a lac! of s ecific call data ma# com licate the forecasting on arrival rates- service times and other call center arameters. :ans et al. $2;;/% descri"e different t# es of data which can "e used for anal#sis& 1 * erational customer dataA for s ecific call data- arrival atterns- dela# in queue and service times. * erational customer data rovide listings of ever# call handled "# a site or networ! of call centers. Each record includes time stam s for when the call arrived- when it entered service or a"andoned- when it ended service- as well as other identifiers- such as who was the DS>. 2 * erational agent dataA for agent utili7ation- availa"ilit#- duration of "eing idle and service times. 3 Mar!eting dataA from the cor orate ,S $,nformation S#stem%- for e+am le for qualitative measurements. Human >esources dataA to find out what s!ills and s!ill-levels agents have- for e+am le for use with S3>. " 's#chological dataA for qualitative measurements $deal with su".ective erce tions of customers%
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The authors also collect data from the @D) re orts and with su ort from the F(M the re orted num"ers are aggregated to monthl# totals. These totals form the $historical% "asis for forecasting in ut arameters for modeling. The term Hgrand averages9 is used for aggregating different totals $arrival rates andBor service times%. @n e+am le of hierarchical views of arrival rates can "e found in a endi+ ). Ernst et al. $2;;0% also mention the use of historical data to forecast demand for services. 'oint of de arture for this author is fle+i"le demand where the li!elihood of future incidents is less well !nown and must "e modeled using forecasting techniques. >equests for service ma# have random arrival rates and ossi"l# random service times. Ga f $2;;0% recogni7es the im ortance of recording historical data with the @D) and adds an interesting source of data gathering& e+ ert information. E+ erts are for e+am le e+ erienced agents who ma!e estimates on arrival rates and handling times $ er t# e of call- er t# e of agent%. The author uses the historical data and e+ ert estimates to dimension incoming requests and waiting tolerance. 3.%.. &ata processing and analysis Timeblocks ! Arrival rates *nce the to -level $monthl# totals% forecasts are set- the# are s lit into da#-ofthe-wee!Bda#-of-the-month- as well as "# time-of-the-da# s ecific num"ers of arrivals of calls $:ans et al.- 2;;/%. Each eriod or interval is allocated with a num"er or a ercentage of the total call volume for the aggregate eriod. (or these eriods and intervals constant arrival rates are assumed- which allows the use of standard- stead#-state models- where stead#-state is reached quic!l# and forecasted I and J ma# "e used. @nother a roach mentioned "# the authors $:ans et al.- 2;;/% is "rea!ing c#cles into smaller intervals to get a sam le mean that is used as the arrival rate for the su"interval. The anal#sis shows that- when the underl#ing arrival rocess is time-inhomogeneous 'oisson and c#clical $e+ lained in u coming alineas%- the limiting sam le-rate function is a consistent estimator of the original arrival-rate function. Masse# et al. $4552% rove this with a linear function of arrival ratesI$t%KaiL"it. Time"loc! s ecific arrival rates are also ro osed "# Ernst et al. $2;;0%- "ecause after using queueing theor# to determine staff levels- these levels could "e s ecified for each hourl# interval over a four wee! lanning hori7on. *ther authors who suggest aggregating data over some eriod of time $in a time"loc!- t# icall# /; minutes% are 'ichitlam!en et al. $2;;/%. The goodness of fit is much "etter with s lit-u arrival atterns for different intervals. (urthermore the# state that from em irical stud#- call center arrivals are !nown to have a variance that is considera"l# higher than im lied "# 'oisson arrival $their sources& Jong"loed and ?oole $2;;4% and )eslauriers et al. $2;;0%% and strong ositive association "etween the arrivals in different time eriods $their sources& Tanir and 3ooth- 4555 and 3rown et al.- 2;;2%.
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5oisson nature @rrivals to call centers are t# icall# random $:ans et al.- 2;;4%. There are man# otential- statisticall# identical callers to the call centerA there is a ver# small #et nonnegligi"le ro"a"ilit# for each of them calling at an# given minute- inde endentl# of each other. Under such circumstances- theor# dictates that the arrival rocess fits well a 'oisson rocess. ,f more customers are li!el# to call sa# at 4;&/; am than at 4&;; m- one gets a time-inhomogeneous 'oisson rocess. Dall arrivals can "e determined with use of descri tive models to reflect atternse+ lanator# models for forecasting future arrival rates and classical theor# models to rove the time-inhomogeneous 'oisson nature of the arrival rocess. The use of classical theor# models for roving the time-inhomogeneous 'oisson nature of the call center rocess has also "een ut forward "# 'ichitlam!en et al. $2;;/%- "ac!ed u "# em irical evidence in 3rown et al. $2;;2%. The# found out that a 'oisson rocess with a deterministic time-var#ing arrival rate cannot realisticall# model the call center arrivals. @ssuming deterministic arrival rates reduces traffic varia"ilit# and congestion and im roves the qualit# of service and erformance measurements. @ stochastic rate would "e more realistic. The# tested this assum tion and concluded that a "etter goodness of fit is o"tained when the arrival rocess is time-of-the-da# and da#-of-the-wee! de endent. Fith that finding the# artl# re.ect their own remar! on the deterministic time-var#ing arrival rate. The arrival rate ma# "e time de endent "ut should "e more stochastic in the s ecific time "loc!s. The authors end this discussion with the remar! that ossi"le errors or successes of the assum tions made- are strongl# related to the amount and relia"ilit# of the data. Ga f $2;;0% states that the arrival attern of incoming requests has a 'oisson nature- "ecause of findings in scientific literature. The e+act 'oisson nature can "e derived from the @D) data. The average volume of s#nchronous requestswhich is required as in ut arameter for this distri"ution- can "e derived em iricall# from the out ut of the @D). 3ased on one t# ical wee! without e+treme wor! loads an average request volume er da# has "een determined. This volume contains standard calls and s ecial calls. The request volume of as#nchronous requests has "een derived from the overall request volume er month which leads to standard and s ecial requests er da#. Here too- the call volumes have "een s lit u to get time and interval s ecific arrival arameters. 5redictability There are scenarios where the 'oisson assum tions are violated. (or e+am le "# an e+ternal event- such as a tele hone num"er shown in a TV commercialwhich can "e modeled "# adding a 'oissonian num"er of arrivals at a redicta"le oint in time. This is still referred to a 'oisson oint rocess- which e+ eriences discontinuit# in its cumulative arrival rate. (or short term eriods one is encountered with stochastic varia"ilit# in the arrival rocess. *ver longer eriods even a redicta"le varia"ilit#- such as a seasonal attern- can sometimes "e discovered. =in- =ai and Hung $455<% recogni7e this
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and even add the o tion of influencing their forecasts and in ut arameters "# factor for the ad.ustment on call arrivals on articular hours or da#s s ecified $see also a endi+ E%. 6rlang distributions Erlang is a unit of measurement of traffic densit# in a telecommunications s#stem. The erlang descri"es the total traffic volume for a certain eriod of time. ,n the earl# da#s of call center literature the distri"ution used for call arrivals was a standard Erlang D distri"ution- which nowada#s is too restrictive for the much more com licated call center rocesses that e+ist. Ernst et al. $2;;0% state that the assum tion of the Erlang D nature of the arrival rocess in call centers is a rather sim le and shortsighted one. )uring their literature research ?oole and Mandel"aum $2;;2% found man# anal#tical models for erformance anal#sis with Erlang 3 and mostl# Erlang D distri"utions for the arrival rocess rates. @ccording to the authors the first is t# icall# ina ro riate for not ac!nowledging waiting and the second lac!s central features- nota"l# customer a"andonment and heterogeneit#. ?oole $2;;1% notices that the wor!horse queueing models have "een the Erlang 3 $loss% and D $dela#% models- !nown as MTMTs in the standard ?endall queueing notation. The most common e+tensions considered attem t to account for customer a"andonment- customer retrials- non-e+ onential call-holding-time distri"utions and timevar#ing arrival rates- "ut even these familiar henomena ose serious anal#sis challenges. Fhile heterogeneit# could require a lea in modeling ca a"ilities- the Erlang @ model is ri e for a lications. (or details on this queueing model and its ossi"le e+tensions we refer to the article "# :ans et al. $2;;/%. +ervice or handling times ,n the field of determining service times :ans et al. $2;;/% discovered that scientific literature concentrated e+clusivel# on descri tion $li!e histograms% and validation of theoretical models $tests for goodness of fit%. Hardl# an# e+ lanator# wor! can "e found in literature. Erlang and e+ onential distri"utions are mentioned as ossi"le atterns for the distri"ution of service times- "ut the theoretical .ustification for using an e+ onential distri"ution is usuall# quite dou"tful. @nal#tical tracea"ilit# along with a lac! of em irical evidence to the contrar# is not reall# a strong "asis to draw solid conclusions. 'ichitlam!en et al. $2;;/% confirm the lac! of relia"le and constructive literature on the determination of distri"utions of service times. Their estimates are "ased on the sum of service times availa"le and the# used a case to determine whether the service times are time-of-the-da# inde endent or de endent. The authors got a "etter fit with the latter. The assum tion was tested for a gamma and a lognormal distri"ution- with a simulation model. The gamma distri"ution turned out to "e much easier to test and the goodness of fit was reasona"l#. 3esides this the gamma is ver# usefull for modeling random e+ eriments $Montgomer# and >unger- 4555%.
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Ga f $2;;0% argues that a stochastic distri"ution is the right wa# for modeling service times in a call center- "ecause the times are not constant in realit#. ,n order to determine the a ro riate stochastic distri"ution and average values one t# ical wee! of data has "een statisticall# anal#7ed gathered from the @D). @ sam le of real call times can "e com ared with data from e+ onential 2 distri"utions. The U -test will deliver a '-value. $,n Montgomer# and >unger 2 $4555% it can "e found that the U -test is a s ecial case of the gamma distri"ution and can "e used for interval estimation and tests of h# othesis.% The test of ?olmogorovBSmimov will result in a lower "ound for the '-value. @ '-value of more than ;.4; stands for a good corres ondence "etween the distri"ution and the sam le data. 3ased on the test results the e+ onential distri"ution can "e used for modeling the relevant handling times& classification time- call time and after-call time. The average values for the call time and after-call time can "e derived from the @D) s#stem- the average classification time has to "e estimated "# e+ erts. (or a-s#nchronous requests no distinction "etween call handling and after-call wor! is necessar#- therefore onl# one handling activit# can "e modeled for each rocess design. The average values for the corres onding handling time have to "e estimated "# e+ erts. 6xample @ nice e+am le of deriving forecasts from an @D) re ort is rovided "# =in- =ai and Hung $455<%. 3ased on hourl# @D) data an a ro riate model is "uilt with the ur ose of showing the relationshi "etween a"andonment rate and wor!load $"ased on demand volume and service ca acit#%. See a endi+ E for detailed information on the method followed to determine the relationshi . Time"loc!s are used to get s ecific forecasts er interval and since no articular trend was o"served- a moving average $for each hour in the wee!% is ado ted as forecasting model. The methodolog#9s o".ective is to directl# evaluate net staff levels for certain eriods of time in order to sta# "elow re-fi+ed a"andonment num"ers andBor ercentages. ,n case of insufficient ast data for constructing the model- a queueing simulation model is ado ted to evaluate net staff level. (or the call arrival attern 'oisson call arrivals are used to simulate incoming requests "# customers. Tal! time and a"andonment time will then "e normall# distri"uted. ".2 Determining a6andonment and retrial 6eha-ior of callers

Modeling a"andonment arameters is e+tremel# com le+ $Mehrota and (ama2;;/% "ecause of mathematical im lications from queueing d#namics and also "ecause of a lac! of ro er and detailed o"serva"le data a"out customer a"andonment and retrial. Two main questions are identified& 1. Fhat is the customer9s tolerance for waiting- and at what oint will this customer hang u and there"# leave the queueR 2. How li!el# is the customer to call "ac!- and after how longR Mehrota and (ama leave the second question unanswered and state that- for answering the first question the distri"ution of atience has to "e e+tracted
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$estimated% from historical data a"out callers9 time in queue. (or the simulation model used "# the authors- a life s an for the waiting time of customers is drawn from an e+ onential distri"ution. ,n figure 0- :ans et al. $2;;/% alread# ac!nowledged the e+istence of a"andonment- lost calls and retrials. The# also recogni7e that a lot of u"lished a ers a# attention to a"andonment and atience- and few a"out retr#ing. The im atience function distinguishes "etween regular and high riorit# customerswhere regular customers are less atient than high- riorit# customers. This could "e a reflection of a more urgent need on the art of riorit# customers to s ea! with an agent- or it could reflect their higher level of trust that the# will "e served soon after arrival.

Figure /! Impatience Functions of +egular and Priority Customers

Second- the im atience functions $figure <% of "oth t# es of customers are not monotone and have two ea!s& the first near the origin- due to those who sim l# decide not to wait- and the second at a"out 2; seconds. The second- as it might ha en in a articular situation- reflects an announcement to customers who

have waited 2; seconds- informing them of their relative lace in the tele-queue $"ut not their antici ated waiting time%. @s can "e seen- the information here encourages a"andonment. This could "e in contrast to its original goal- namel# reventing a"andonment "# reducing the uncertaint# a"out waiting times. Man# models of im atience have "een develo ed in the call center field. The authors rovide a small list of s ecific $case-"ased% e+am les with different distri"utions for $im% atience "ehavior. )istri"utions li!e Fei"ull- Erlang @ and lognormal are mentioned. ,n the different cases $im% atience is "ased on irritation $"ased on inconvenience% or short- medium or call-"ac! dela#s. -mpatience behavior )ata generated from the ,V> andBor @D) also shows the num"er of a"andoning customers and the times after which a customer decides to leave- a"andonment times $:ans et al.- 2;;/%. Most research on the su".ect of a"andonment and retrials "# customers in Htele-queues9 originated in s#cholog# and mar!eting
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$?oole and Mandel"aum- 2;;2%. ,n scientific literature most attention is given to the $im% atience of visiting customers- with little devotion to the tendenc# to retr#. ,n cha ter / some findings of :ans et al. $2;;/% are alread# resented in the field of the im atience factor. Ever# t# e of customer has its own $im% atience "ehavior and there is a difference "etween the customer9s time willing and e+ ecting to wait. -nterdependency and e#uilibrium To indicate the influence of a"andonment on call center rocess erformancethe authors state that in heav# traffic- even a small fraction of "us#-signals or a"andonment could have a dramatic effect on erformance. Therefore decisions on agent staffing must ta!e into account customer atience. ,n turn- customer atience is influenced "# the waiting e+ erience which- circularl#- de ends on staffing levels. @n a ro riate framewor!- therefore- is that of an equili"rium $:ame Theor#%- arrived at through customer self-o timi7ing and learning. @"andonment arises as an equili"rium "ehavior of rational customers who o timall# com are their e+ ected remaining waiting time with their su".ective value of service. @ sim lified model can "e derived from the equili"rium "ehaviorwhich ena"les some su ort for ada tive "ehavior $learning% of customers.

Figure 0! Call abandonment process for sync%ronous re1uests

Abandonment and redialing modeled Ga f $2;;0% rovides a nice re resentation $figure 5% of the a"andonment

rocess and redial ossi"ilit# for s#nchronous requests. Dustomers do not wait for an agent as long as the service rovider would li!e "ut onl# for a articular time eriod. ,f calls are in the waiting queue for a longer time the customer hangs u . This eriod is called the waiting tolerance which is determined "# the customers9 references and his current situation. The data used are from a articular case and com an#. Since the @D) s#stem does not log the waiting tolerance- an estimate from e+ erts is used which results in an average waiting tolerance of 4&;; min er customer request. The variation of the waiting tolerance "etween single requests is reflected "# using the e+ onential distri"ution for this arameter. @fter hanging u - some customers re-dial in order to get a free agent. The art of re-dialers is re resented "# the ercentage of re-dialing. The
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arameter time "etween dial attem ts defines the time interval "etween hanging u and re-dialing and is also su osed as e+ onential distri"uted. Dommunication center e+ erts estimated 61M ercentage of re-dialing and an average time "etween dial attem ts of ;&;2 min. The waiting tolerance and redial rocess have also "een modeled for calls which have "een classified "# a generalist and have "een transferred in a waiting queue of a s ecialist agent. ".3 (rrors and pitfalls in forecasting

6stimation vs. prediction ,n scientific literature on call center anal#sis some warnings are given "# several authors a"out estimations and determinations of call center arameters "ased on historical data. (irst of all :ans et al. $2;;/% ma!e the im ortant distinction "etween estimation and rediction. These are two closel# related- "ut differentstatistical tas!s. Estimation concerns the use of e+isting $historical% data to ma!e interferences a"out the arameter values of a statistical model. 'rediction concerns the use of the estimated arameters to forecast the "ehavior of a sam le outside of the original data set $used to ma!e the estimation%. 'redictions are PnoisierQ than estimates "ecause- in addition to uncertaint# concerning the estimated arameters- the# contain additional sources of otential errors. +ources of uncertainty ! )ans et al. 1$77.2 (orecasting or rediction ma# not "e trustworth# "ecause of insufficient historical data- which can lead to un redicta"le factors not discovered during data anal#sis. (urthermore the authors rovide three sources of uncertaint# in availa"le data& 1. 'rocess uncertaint#. ,nherent random "ecause e+act call arrival times are usuall# not !nown in advance. 2. Model uncertaint#. @n# model is an a ro+imation of realit#- and therefore necessaril# miss ecifies the underl#ing henomenon to some e+tent. The estimation of the arrival rocess rate might not "e totall# correct. 3. Model uncertaint# on erformance measures. S#stem erformance ma# not "e insensitive to the form of the service-time distri"ution. :iven a model that descri"es realit# satisfactoril#- there still ma# e+ist arameter uncertaint#- as in the case of a arrival rocess with an uncertain rate. )ata from the @D) can "e rett# censored when it is used to anal#7e and determine a"andonment arameters. Since the data of served customers who did not a"andon the s#stem is not availa"le- atience is not full# o"served. *nl# the ma+imum atience times of those customers who a"andon are o"served. 'ichitlam!en et al. $2;;/% do mention this concern as well- ne+t to the fact that the time an agent is availa"le to ta!e a call is ver# li!el# to "e less than the time for which the# are scheduled- "ecause of coffee "rea!s- tri s to restroomsa"senteeism- etc. +ources of uncertainty ! Chen and 'enderson 1$77.2 These authors have a t# ical a roach towards forecasting in ut arameters for a queueing model. )etermination of forecasts is "ased on historical data and the
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authors mention sources of uncertaint# and rovide tools to detect and model random arrival atterns. @t least three otential sources of uncertaint# in estimating the arrival rate for a future eriod& 1. Estimation error. The arrival rate estimator will not deliver an e+act value of the arrival rate arameter- "ecause it is an average of a finite num"er of random varia"les. 2. 8on-stationarities in the data availa"le. @rrival rates for future eriods ma# not "e well- redicted "# the num"er of arrivals in the corres onding revious eriods. The use of several seasons of data ma# reveal and redict such non-stationarit#. 3. >andom arrival rate. The historical data of a articular eriod ma# show a call arrival rocess with a 'oisson nature. Estimations for the future will "e "ased on these findings. ,n future articular eriods one might measure arrival rates that seem to "e random. This could "e caused "# the weather for e+am le- or other e+ternal $and thus random% factors. )etecting and modeling a random arrival rate is e+ lained "# the authors with a ractical method using statistical anal#sis and h# otheses. The random arrival rate should "e e+ licitl# modeled if the underl#ing erformance measure is highl# nonlinear over the range of the random arrival rate. *therwise the resence of a random arrival rate will lead to over- redictions of service erformance and an underestimation of staff required is made. *f course- the main concern from a ractical oint of view is the degree of this effect. @ ractical method is su lied for detecting and modeling a random arrival rate- and it is descri"ed how to com ute erformance in this setting. The a roach is ver# general- and in articular does not rel# on the use of ver# s ecific models- nor does it rel# on an# conve+it# assum tions. *ne can use this method in a sim le C ilot stud#C to com are erformance assuming a deterministic arrival rate and assuming a random arrival rate. (or more details on the method followed view the article "# Dhen and Henderson $2;;4%.

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6.

2pproac%es to determine *optimal, staffing levels

*nce activities as forecasting in uts and setting the right erformance measurements have "een com leted- call center managers can start thin!ing of determining the o timal staff mi+. Fithout a model it is difficult to s ecif# and .ustif# the erformance of solutions. )e ending on the num"er of t# es of customers one can thin! of different com"inations of generalists and s ecialists in the o timal mi+. (or sure- the manager will thin! an intermediate solution is the "est solution $'in!er and Shums!#- 2;;;%. The choice for a certain wor!force configuration involves a trade-off "etween the efficienc# of cross-trained wor!ers $generalists% and the higher e+ erience and qualit# of s eciali7ed wor!ers $s ecialists%. There are several techniques that can hel the manager in confirming or contradicting his intuition. @mong others- Ernst et al. $2;;0% state that queuing theor# and simulation modeling are the two a roaches most commonl# used for translating customer arrivals during different time intervals into the staffing levels $demand% needed to maintain the required service standards. ,n section /.1 Ernst et al. $2;;0% even recommend to use the two in com"ination to o"tain "est results. ,n this cha ter a num"er of a roaches towards determining staffing levels will "e descri"ed to get a "etter view on the s ecific characteristics and $dis%advantages of these a roaches. ,f a lica"le- measuring sensitivit# with the tool will also "e dealt with. (irst the queueing models will "e descri"ed $section 2.4%. Then simulation is su".ect of discussion $section 2.2%. (urthermore a num"er of tools for minimi7ation will "e descri"ed- mainl# mathematical techniques li!e ,nteger 'rogramming and square-root staffing $section 2./%. @t the end of this cha ter some findings of the different tools will "e resented in the conclusions section $2.0%. 6.1 7ueueing theor1 models

@ccording to ?oole and Mandel"aum $2;;2% and referring to figure 2- call centers can "e viewed as queueing s#stems. @ lot of the rinci les in queueing theor# match with the characteristics in call center rocesses. ,n section 1.4.4 the usefulness of queueing theor# is alread# e+ lained& 8ueueing models are theoretical models which mathematically define relationships among building blocks, for example, arrivals and services. 8ueueing analysis of a given model starts with assumptions concerning its primitives and leads to properties of performance measures, such as the distribution of delay in #ueue or the abandonment rate.

04

9.%.% 6rlang and 5oisson ,n a queueing model of a call center- the customers are callers- servers $resources% are tele hone agents $o erators% or communication equi ment- and tele-queues consist of callers that await service "# a s#stem resource. The sim lest and most-widel# used model is the MTMTs queue- also !nown in call center circles as Erlang D. @s alread# stated "efore- for most real-world a lications Erlang D is an oversim lification. ,t assumes out "us# signalscustomer9s im atience and services s anned over multi le visits $:ans et al.2;;/%. The "asic o erational model of a call center is the MTMTs queue with arameters I- J and s- the rimitives& 1 the arrival rocess- assumed 'oisson at a constant rate I 2 the service times- assumed e+ onentiall# distri"uted with mean J 3 the num"er of agents- s (urthermore there are im licit assum tions- of which inde endence among the rimitives and (D(S service disci lines are the most im ortant. The o ularit# of using MTMTs queues is related to the fact that closed form e+ ressions e+ist for most of its erformance measures. Fhen modeling call centers- the useful a ro+imations are t# icall# those in heav#-traffic- namel# high agentsV utili7ation levels at ea! hours. To e+ lore other ossi"le queue t# es- the authors shortl# mention some researched queue t# es. (or e+am le the MT:Ts queue- as a result of non-e+ onential service times. Unfortunatel# anal#ticall# intracta"le. *ne must then resort to a ro+imations and it turns out that erformance im roves as stochastic varia"ilit# in service times increases $decreases%. (or small to moderate num"ers of agents sresearch asserts that waiting time is a ro+imatel# e+ onential. =arge s- on the other hand- gives rise to a different as#m totic "ehavior. Some mathematical solutions have "een develo ed to deal with this a ro+imation ro"lem. Two of them will "e descri"ed further on in this cha ter $sections 2./ and 2.0%A squareroot staffing and site ooling. 9.%.$ )atekeepers and referrals Hasi.a et al. $2;;1% use queueing theor# to show that there are essentiall# two queues in series& 1 ng gate!ee ers 2 ne e+ erts with "oth different staffing costs. Dustomers arrive to the gate!ee ers according to a 'oisson rocess with rate I. Each call has a com le+it# +- which means the ro"a"ilit# of a customer is "eing treated successfull# "# the gate!ee er is f$+%& the treatment function. ,n section 2./- figure 0 a re resentation of a gate!ee er configuration was resented. The referral rate $!% is used as a varia"le in ut arameter and can "e seen as the olic# for the ma+imum of calls not treated $well% "# the gate!ee ers. ,n other words- 4-! is the call resolution rate of the gate!ee ers. (raction ! of the calls ends u at the des! of e+ erts. The arrival
02

rate at e+ erts therefore is the sum of the rate of calls untreated and mistreated "# the gate!ee ers. Minimi7ing costs is the o".ective. Some arameters can "e fi+ed- others varia"le. Solving this ro"lem can "e done numericall# $minimi7ing the o".ective function under certain restrictions% and will "e descri"ed in section 2./- focusing on mathematical solutions for minimi7ation ro"lems. The authors state that for lanning staffing needs- first referral rates and gate!ee er treatment wor!loads have to "e determined- in order to have information for the higher level staffing model. @ few assum tions& 1. The referral $rate% is not influenced "# queue lengths at gate!ee ers and s ecialists. This leads to a sim ler structure- allowing to focus on the longterm im act of incentives on gate!ee er "ehavior $ rinci al-agent model%. 2. Strict se aration "etween gate!ee er9s diagnosis and treatment ste s. 3. @ll gate!ee ers have same diagnostic ca a"ilities and all s ecialists are homogeneous in terms of cost. E+ ected cost is inde endent from identit# of gate!ee er or s ecialist. . ,ncorrect treatment "# gate!ee er leads to directl# sending the service request to a s ecialist. Hasi.a et al. $2;;1% also researched sensitivit# of the models and rocesses used. The cost-minimi7ing referral rate varies with changes in arameters related to queuing- i.e.- arrival rates and service rates. Fhen the arrival rate increasesthe o timal referral rate converges to the o timal referral rate for the deterministic case. (or ver# large I- waiting costs are relativel# small- com ared to the sum of staffing and mistreatment costs. Therefore it is o timal to use the treatment threshold from a deterministic model- which onl# considers staffing and mistreatment costs. The authors also rovide a rule of thum" for choosing the o timal s#stem. Treatment threshold ! d is the main arameter the rule is "ased on. @ endi+ , includes a more "roadl# descri tion of the rule and of the methodolog# followed "# Hasi.a et al. $2;;1%. The authors found that with a certain s!ill level of the gate!ee er a direct access s#stem $onl# e+ erts% is o timal. So- to .ustif# gate!ee ers $assumed high waiting costs% the# should have high level s!ills. This effect can "e e+ lained "# the fact that a one-tier s#stem offers "enefits from ooling $section 2.0% and that these "enefits are more owerful when waiting costs are high. 9.%.. +hared resource as bottleneck server @!Nin and Har!er $2;;/% develo ed a model that is interesting in queueing ers ectives- des ite the unusual assum tion of the ,S as a shared "ottlenec! resource $see also section 2.2.4%. The ro"lem "eing considered is a staff dimensioning ro"lem for a service s#stem- which determines the o timal num"er of servers that is allocated to multi le customer classes. @ lot of methodologies have the o".ective to minimi7e costs. @s mentioned in the introduction alread#- call centers can nowada#s "e more seen as rofit centers.
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That is the reason wh# the authors ta!e revenues as a direct function of staffing decisions. @s with most of the earlier call center staffing a ers- the underl#ing erformance model is a queueing s#stem. Fhat is unique a"out the erformance model- however- is the e+ licit consideration of "uffer and server resources- as well as a resource that is shared among different customer t# es. Each customer class has its own server and "uffer resources- "ut shares an information rocessing resource with other customer classes. Since measuring qualit# is e+tremel# difficult- the authors want to determine economicall# o timal staffing levels- defined as those levels that ma+imi7e total revenues net of staffing costs for the service s#stem. These economicall# o timal staffing levels can "e determined for a loss s#stem. @ more detailed descri tion of the authors9 model is rovided in a endi+ J. ,n the model- the service time is assumed de endent on the num"er of customers in the s#stem- "ecause of the shared resource. The formulated si7ing ro"lem is in articular difficult to solve for the "loc!ing and renege ro"a"ilities- since the# are non-linear in the num"er of servers. (or the general multi-class case- heuristics are develo ed that ma!e use of the structural ro erties of a single class s#stem. The authors did not model the ossi"ilities of unsuccessful treatment of customer requests and multi le s!illed servers are also not considered in the article. 6.2 0imulation models

,n section /.1 a num"er of authors are quoted for em hasi7ing the usefulness of com"ining queueing theor# and simulation for determining o timal staffing levels. The simulation model is used to erform what-if scenarios- "ecause of high fle+i"ilit#. The queueing model $DTMD- Mar!ov% is used to a ro+imate the s#stem erformance measures. DTMD models are insightful and relativel# easier to construct than a simulation model. Mehrota $4556% alread# recogni7ed the im ortance of simulation for future lanning. Dall center managers are rel#ing increasingl# on simulation models as the source of answers to !e# Cwhat-ifC questions- and as the right wa# to design andBor modif# different as ects of their call centers. (urthermore he states that randomness- com le+it# and interactions can "e ver# well modeled with simulation- which is also "ac!ed u "# 3a at and 'ruitte $455<%. ?oole $2;;1% goes further into this su".ect and states that after "uilding a mathematical model of the call center and estimating all relevant arametersconclusions can "e drawn from a thorough anal#sis of the model. This anal#sis often involves simulation of the whole s#stem. This a roach is time consumingusuall# erformed "# e+ternal consultants- and whether it reall# gives good results is sometimes dou"tful. ,t wor!s "est for o erational ro"lems of a re etitive nature. (urthermore he concludes that for evaluating more com le+ call centers $two or more s!ills er agent% the anal#tical models "ased on Erlang formulas are no longer suita"le. ,nstead one has to rel# on mathematicall#
00

involved and long com utations- on a ro+imations- or on simulation. More or less the use of simulation in evaluating com le+ call centers "ecomes a necessit#. Dhan $2;;/% rovides a nice overview of ste s to "e followed to design an effective wor!flow using simulation. @ descri tion of the ste s can "e found in a endi+ :. 9.$.% :apf 1$77;2< &iscrete event simulation Ga f $2;;0% uses discrete event simulation to overcome certain com le+it# restrictions of modeling and therefore the evaluation of rocess designs is close to realit#. (or ever# design- stochastic discrete event simulation models are made. Fith the simulation tool @>E8@- "ased on the S,M@8 simulation language- a model of a call center rocess was designed. Some arts of the model were develo ed with the call center s ecific e+tension DallWim- other arts have "een im lemented through individual routines. Ga f $2;;0% also models outcalls $related to acce ted customer requests% in the simulation models. @ re resentation of the rocess with outcalls can "e seen in a endi+ 3- figure 42. @fter initiali7ation of the simulation model $setting a num"er of agents er grou er design%- different scenarios are run. Donclusions on these results will "e discussed in section 2.0. 9.$.$ Testing validity and sensitivity with simulation Ma77uchi and Fallace $2;;0% validated their simulation model with the hel of some call center e+ erts and did not use an# real-world data or s#stem. The authors admit the limitedness of this rocedure and in their o inion good validation should "e done with real-world out ut. The# verified their simulation models with a num"er of industr#-acce ted verification techniques& modular testing- sensitivit# testing- stress testing- trace anal#sis- and out ut com arison against !nown models. See Fallace $2;;0% for details. 'ichitlam!en et al. $2;;/% com are simulation results to the collected em irical data from the call center. ,n their research this leads to slight differences which can "e related to the ercentage of time that em lo#ees are not availa"le to ta!e calls. (urthermore the authors e+amined sensitivit# of the assum tions of the simulation model. )istri"utions of arrival rocess and service times are changed and tested with the DTMD models that are modeled arallel to the simulation models. Ga f $2;;0% resented the simulation stud# and discussed it with communication center rofessionals in order to get feed"ac! from ractice concerning the a lied method and the o"tained results. )etails on the validation and verification ste s identified "# Ga f $2;;0% can "e found in @ endi+ H.
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Mehrota and (ama $2;;/% discuss a ver# interesting art of simulation rocedures. The# ran multi le re lications of the simulation model and com uted estimates for erformance measures "ased on the average of the run length. This was done for each of the individual scenarios that were develo ed. (or ur oses of determining the num"er of runs for each scenario- the# focused on average wee!l# Service =evel for the in"ound queue as the statistic of interest. @fter each run- overall standard deviation of this statistic was e+amined across all runs to date. The# continued to run additional iterations until this overall standard deviation was under 2.1M- which was set ar"itraril# as the confidence threshold. ?oole $2;;1% warns for the ossi"le time- consuming verification and validation activities- certainl# with com le+ s#stems. He states verification and validation are crucial to a ro er use of simulation. 6.3 Mathematical tools for minimi3ation pro6lems

Mathematical models are usuall# used for a ro+imation of staffing solutionses eciall# where minimi7ing costs is the o".ective. ,n section /.1 the hierarchical a roach of :ans et al. $2;;/% towards ca acit# management for call centers was alread# mentioned. The intermediate-level of ersonnel scheduling is mainl# done with mathematical rogramming models. 'oint forecasts for s#stem arameters are derived from the low-level queueing erformance models and used as in ut for mathematical rogramming models. Ernst et al. $2;;0% also note that the literature is heavil# s!ewed towards mathematical rogramming and metaheuristic a roaches for rostering as o osed to D' $constraint rogramming% and other techniques arising out of artificial intelligence research. @s mentioned in section 2.4.2- Hasi.a et al. $2;;1% use linear rogramming to numericall# a ro+imate the o timal staffing levels. Fith the costs of staffing er unit time a minimi7ation with certain restrictions is used to solve the ro"lem. @!Nin and Har!er $2;;/% use a greed# allocation algorithm to solve the ro"lem for the loss s#stem. Servers are assigned sequentiall# to the customer class that im roves revenues net of staffing costs the most- and continues until no such activit# can "e found within the feasi"le set. 9...% -nteger 5rogramming 1-52 ,n their literature research ?oole and Mandel"aum $2;;2% concluded that with modeling staff- integer rogramming is more focussed on rostering than on finding the o timal mi+. @s said "efore- :ans et al. $2;;/% use outcomes of lower level queueing erformance models as in ut for staff scheduling with integer rogramming models. @ll "loc!s together- and their s ecific forecasted arrival rates and service times- give rise to a target staffing level over longer eriods. The authors distinguish "etween two elements of the scheduling rocess& shifts and
02

schedules. @ shift denotes a set of half -hour intervals during which a DS> wor!s over the course of the da#. @ schedule is a set of dail# shifts to which an em lo#ee is assigned over the course of a wee! or month. 3oth shifts and schedules are often restricted "# union rules or other legal requirements and can "e quite com le+. Then determination of an o timal set of schedules can "e descri"ed as the solution to an integer rogram $,'%. ,n section /.2 an iteration and convergence tool >,,'S $Henderson and Mason455<% was introduced. This tool tries to lin! "etween ad.acent time"loc!s in the staffing rocess. (le+i"ilit# in rostering solutions increases with this tool. >,,'S is quite a com le+- time consuming ro"lem to solve. Two algorithms are rovided to save time in ,' modeling and finding o timal solutions. :*S is used to measure and test ossi"le solutions "# simulation and the question to answer is whether or not erformance criteria are met. The algorithms are erformed until convergence. 9...$ +#uare,root staffing @nother a ro+imation tool for staffing is the square-root method. ?oole and Mandel"aum $2;;2% discovered a lot of attention for this tool in scientific literature. (or all !inds of M-queues and es eciall# in case of heavil# loaded call centers. :ans et al. $2;;/% also mention the heav# traffic characteristic and state that with high 8 $a lot of service requests% an as#m totic regime can "e followed with the square-root staffing method. The square-root method rovides three advantages $Hasi.a et al.- 2;;1% over numericall# solving a ro"lem& 1. Solve staffing ro"lems more quic!l# 2. Ena"les characteri7ation of the effects of certain arameters on the o timal solution 3. )irect com arison ossi"le "etween the one-tier $onl# e+ ertsBs ecialists% and two-tier $gate!ee er% s#stems. @s mentioned in section 2.4.2 Hasi.a et al. $2;;1% use the square-root staffing rule to find o timal staffing for "oth tiers $gate!ee ers and s ecialists%. The num"er of servers for each level can "e determined for an# articular referral rate. ,n other words& for an# routing strateg#. Fith the o".ective of minimi7ing total staffing and waiting costs and I allowed to near X- the ratio of staffing and waiting costs is "ounded. Such a s#stem can "e descri"ed as "eing in the rationali7ed game. Then- a sim le square-root staffing heuristic rovides as#m toticall# o timal results. @ descri tion of the heuristics for one-tier and two-tier $including treatment threshold !% s#stems can "e found in Hasi.a et al. $2;;1%. Fith the o"tained num"er of servers and the static routing strateg# $de ending on the referral rate and treatment threshold%- the determination of total costs of o erating is done with minimi7ation.

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9.... The p= rule", de >?ricourt and :hou 1$77.2 ,n the model of Hasi.a et al. $2;;1%- gate!ee ers have some ro"a"ilit# of success with a articular call. The same is done "# de VYricourt and Ghou $2;;/%. The# assume that each server has a different call resolution ro"a"ilit# $ %- and the# also assume that each server ma# have a different service rate $J%. The# identif# the routing olic# of calls to servers $a P J ruleQ% that minimi7es the total time a call s ends in the s#stem- including re-calls. Fhile de VYricourt and Ghou $2;;/% assume that the staffing level is given - one server of each t# e Z the model of Hasi.a et al. $2;;1% considers "oth the staffing and routing ro"lem for large s#stems. The structure of their service s#stem is also quite different. The# assume that there are two ools of servers& the e+ ert ool has a resolution ro"a"ilit# equal to 4 and the gate!ee er ool attem ts to treat calls or asses them along the e+ ert ool. 6. Conclusions from modeling techniques

,n scientific research one can find man# interesting e+ eriences from different authors when modeling the rocess of a call center. Es eciall# when la#ing with the num"ers of servers- generalists and s ecialists and with tas! division $s!ills and referral rates%. 9.;.% (esource pooling Ma77uchi and Fallace $2;;0% rovide a nice descri tion of the henomenon called Presource oolingQ. ,n a s!ill-"ased routing call center environment- agents are fle+i"le and can su ort multi le s!ills. ,f agents have onl# one s!ill in an S3> environment in which there are n different wor! grou s- then it is well-!nown that the s#stem will "ehave as a collection of much smaller inde endent call centers $assuming "loc!ing is negligi"le%. @t the other e+treme- if each agent can su ort all service requests or s!ills- then the s#stem "ehaves as one "ig call center or single multi- server s#stem. Under this "ig call center scenario- there is no situation in which there are waiting customers and idle agents. Fhen this situation occurs- the s#stem e+hi"its full resource ooling or sim l# resource ooling.

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Figure 3! Competing effects

Ga f $2;;0% also recogni7es the im act of resource ooling and o"serves an interesting fact when loo!ing at com eting effects in his model. @ re resentation of the o"served effects can "e seen in figure 4;. @gent or resource ooling is achieved "# using s ecialists for classif#ing and handling standard requests $dotted lines% in case generalists cannot co e with the offered load of service requests. The num"er of resources for one tas! is increased and therefore the erformance for standard requests is "etter. *n the other hand fewer resources are now availa"le for handling s ecial requests since the total num"er of resources remains the same. This tas! com etition $/ in the figure%- "etween Pclassif# L handleQ and PhandleQ leads to a worse erformance for s ecial requests. @nother wa# of tas! com etition can "e o"served in case of tas! consolidationwhich means that two tas!s which have "een erformed "# different agent

grou s "efore are consolidated and handled "# one agent grou afterwards. The tas!s HHclassif#99 and HHhandle99 are consolidated for s ecial requests and handled "# s ecialist agents $dotted lines%. This consolidation leads to less handling time and therefore to a "etter erformance for s ecial requests. Dontrar# to this acceleration the s ecialists have an additional wor! load through the classification and have less ca acit# for handling s ecial requests. The tas!s HHclassif#99 and HHhandle99 com ete for the same resources which reduces the num"er of handled tas!s and therefore the overall erformance for s ecial requests. >esource ooling was also identified "# other authors li!e :ans et al. $2;;/% and Fallace and Fhit $2;;0%. (or e+am le the latter show that e+treme resource ooling $agents have all s!ills% is not necessar# to erform "etter in terms of service and waiting times. Using a one-factor-at-a-time S3> anal#sis the# show that the s#stem where agents have two s!ills erforms nearl# as well as the s#stem where agents have all s!ills.
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Ma77uchi and Fallace $2;;0% identified several wa#s to characteri7e the e+istence of resource ooling. Fith some fi+ed arameters li!e routing olic# and si7e of the trun!- the authors rove no interactions "etween different call rate factors e+ist while the s#stem is e+ eriencing resource ooling. ,nteraction "etween factors occurs when the difference in res onse "etween the levels of one factor is not the same at all levels of the other factors. The e+istence of interaction can "e determined "# drawing interaction gra hs. (or more details on determining interactions lease read the article "# Ma77uchi and Fallace $2;;0% 9.;.$ +ensitivity Measuring sensitivit# was alread# su".ect of discussion in section 2.2.2. There it was tested "# means of simulation. Here some more common interactions "etween several arameters will "e dealt with. 'in!er and Shums!# investigate if the erformance of the s#stem is sensitive to the staffing configuration choice. (or small s#stems with high learning rates- the o timal staff mi+ rovides significant "enefits over either e+treme case $a com letel# s eciali7ed or com letel# fle+i"le wor!force%. ,f the s#stem is small and the rate of learning is slow- fle+i"le servers are referred. (or large s#stems with high learning ratesthe model leans toward s eciali7ed servers. The choice of wor!force configuration involves a trade-off "etween the efficienc# of cross-trained wor!ers and the higher e+ erience and qualit# of s eciali7ed wor!ers. The d#namics of queueing s#stems show that the si7e of the s#stem influences the efficienc# gains created "# cross-trained wor!ers. *n the other hand- the rate at which wor!ers im rove their EoS through e+ erience influences the im act of the staffing decisions on the EoS e+ erienced "# the customer. Similarl# the tenure rocess also affects the EoS. The authors state that there are a lot of feasi"le and o timal configurations of wor!force and that for several reasons all fle+i"le s#stem turns out to "e the worst staffing solution. Dostl# fle+i"le servers ma!e the s#stem costl# as well. @lso the EoS is at sta!e in this e+treme situation. The learning rate is high for difficult service requests and customers who need s ecialist hel are li!el# to meet an ine+ erienced server. Ga f $2;;0% identified some strengths and wea!nesses for the different qualification- and communication-mi+tures he came u with $section 2.4.4 and a endi+ 3- figure 42 to figure 41%. Ta"le 2 in a endi+ 3 gives a rough summar# of the identified strengths and wea!nesses er qualification-mi+ture. The onelevel design $figure 40- a endi+ 3% is ver# good for handling standard requests "ecause of ooling generalists and s ecialists. The design has wea!nesses for s#nchronous s ecial requests in overload situations and for s ecial as#nchronous requests- since s ecialists are additionall# occu ied with standard requests. The "ac!-office design $figure 4/- a endi+ 3% has strengths in handling as#nchronous requests since s ecialists are reserved for these requests. Dlassif#ing s#nchronous requests is the wea!ness of the "ac!-office design "ecause of a small generalist grou . The two-level design $figure 42a endi+ 3% does "adl# for s#nchronous and a-s#nchronous requests.
1;

The integration of communication channels is in most cases more efficient than the se aration $ta"le /- a endi+ 3%. *nl# in the "ac!-office design $figure 4/a endi+ 3% the integration of communication channels leads to worse erformance for s ecial s#nchronous requests which can "e e+ lained "# tas! com etition "etween handling s#nchronous and a-s#nchronous requests. Some totall# other effects that are found in a research to data mining a roaches for call center erformance- are mentioned "# 'a r7#c!i et al. $2;;0%. The research anal#7ed the sensitivit# of in uts and found that roducts- agents and dates could affect the qualit# of erformance more than time management. The DS>s serving in some roduct areas have more o ortunit# to e+ceed the e+ ected service time than the ones in some other roduct areas. The to erformers constantl# Pe+ceedQ or Pfar-e+ceedQ the e+ ectation. The erformance of DS>s whose evaluation results fall into PmetQ or P"elowQ- is not sta"le. The research suggest that the call center management team should focus on training and coaching the individuals and roduct areas which constantl# have low qualit# instead of em hasi7ing "alancing the length of times s ent on calls.

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Conclusion4 future researc% and reflections

,n this final cha ter- conclusions and reflections on the literature review will "e discussed. (irst- in section 6.4- the research assignment will "e shortl# re eated. The ma.or findings on su".ects discussed in cha ters 2 to 2 will "e listed $section 6.2%. (urthermore some findings on future research $section 6./%- managerial im lications $section 6.0% and limitations and learning e+ eriences $section 6.1% will "e rovided. 7.1 Research assignment

The o".ective of this re ort is to C find techni#ues for determining the optimal staffing levels in a multiple skill inbound call center C. The literature studied was from scientific literature and included to -ran!ed .ournals and authors. 7.2 Ma8or findings

The surev# revealed a ta"le overview of e+isting a roaches to determine o timal staffing levels. @ art from that- more insight is created on quantitative and qualitative erformance measurements- redesign a roaches- "asic terminologies and generalists vs. s ecialists- forecasting and a roaches to determine o timal staffing levels. These are summarised "elow. Table overview of existing approaches towards determining optimal staffing levels (rom the results of the literature research on different su".ects- descri"ed in cha ters 2 to 2- a ta"le overview can "e found in @ endi+ ?. @ summar# is rovided of the researched authors and their develo ed techniques to determine o timal staffing levels. ,n the ta"le one can find different characteristics of the techniques or models such as& 1 @uthor 2 T# olog# of resources 3 $>e%design a roach Euantitative andBor qualitative erformance measurements " S ecial characteristics 8o single ideal tool e+ists to solve the ro"lem of determining o timal staffing levels. Ever# t# e of call center $case% is s ecific and demands a s ecific a roach. @uthors onl# rovide different a roaches to sha e the tool to solve the ro"lem. 8uantitative and #ualitative performance measurements (rom the researched scientific literature one can conclude that quantitative erformance measurements are most widel# used- "ecause the# are eas# to determine and to measure. ,n cha ters / and 0 it "ecame clear that with the
1/

$re%design a roach and determining the erformance criteria it is ver# hard to find a good "alance or mi+ of erformance measurements which reflects "est the characteristics of a s ecific rocess. This dilemma is re resented "# the devil9s quadrangle $a endi+ @%. (edesign approaches (or $re%design ur oses- mainl# form a managerial ers ective- a num"er of authors have "een discussed and it turns out that there is alwa#s a num"er of general ste sBactivities in the $re%design rocess. The same questions have to "e answered over and over again. The general a roach of $re%design is& 1. The use of realBhistorical data to forecast rocess arameters for future model use. 2. Esta"lish the erformance criteria to which the modelB rocess has to erform. 3. )etermine the staff requirements- "ased on a model 1 Eueueing Theor# leading to DTMD-models2 Simulation models or 3 @ mi+ of queueing and simulation models. @ standard art of the $re%design a roach should "e the verification and validation of the rocess model and of estimates of $in ut% arameters. 0asic terminologies and generalists vs. specialists (urthermore some "asic terminologies in call center rocesses were introduced in cha ter 2 li!e call center agents- @D)- time"loc!s- and rocess arametersA the usual dimensions to which a call center is "eing categori7ed or anal#7ed. @ definition of generalists and s ecialists was rovided. @dvantages and disadvantages of the "oth came forward and the conclusion is that a mi+ of generalists and s ecialists would "e o timal in most situations in terms of fle+i"ilit# and qualit# of service. @lso different !inds of call center re resentations and the rinci les of S3> were rovided in cha ter 2. @orecasting *n forecasting $cha ter 1% it can "e concluded that historical data $of all !inds of t# es% is a necessit# to ma!e relia"le estimations and redictions on in ut arameters for call center modeling. The three main in ut arameters to determine are& 1 the arrival rates2 service times and 3 a"andonment "ehavior "# customers. @n im ortant art of data anal#sis is to stud# uncertainties. @ lot of authors warn for different t# es of uncertainties- es eciall# for model uncertaint# which ma# have a negative effect on erformance measures. @ num"er of authors em hasi7es $again% the im ortance of verification and validation of estimates and forecasts found with statistical anal#sis.
10

(urthermore there is a num"er of authors that em hasi7es the im ortance of using time"loc!s with aggregated data for forecasting in ut arameters. Under the assum tion of reaching stead#-state quic!l#- aggregating data $total num"er of calls- average waiting time- total a"andoned calls- etc.% is a useful technique to estimate time -of-the-da#- da#-of-the-wee! de endent in ut arameters. The im ortance of a"andonment and calling "ac! is also noted- "# stating that along with traditional forecasting issues such as data availa"ilit#- data integrit#seasonalit# and non-stationar# randomness- a"andonment ma!es call forecasting more challenging than sim l# fitting a regression model to historical call volumes- articularl# since there is usuall# no wa# to tell if an a"andoned call led to a call "ac! later on. S ecificall# on the arrival rates some clear conclusions can "e drawn from the literature research. The rocess of arrival rates can usuall# "e ver# well re resented "# a 'oisson rocess. (urthermore it is stated that instead of the traditional $and sim le% Erlang D distri"ution for the distri"ution of arrival rates- it would me more a ro riate nowada#s $with more com le+ rocesses% to use the Erlang @ distri"ution with some e+tensions to overcome customer a"andonmentcustomer retrials- non-e+ onential call-holding-time distri"utions and timevar#ing arrival rates. Approaches to determine optimal staffing levels Main conclusion that can "e drawn from the researched a roaches to determine o timal staffing levels $cha ter 2% is the ideal com"ination of using simulation models ne+t to queueing theor#Bmodels to o"tain "est results. The simulation model can "e used to erform what-if scenarios- "ecause of high fle+i"ilit#. @ art from the fact that simulation rovides the ossi"ilit# to model more com le+ rocesses. The queueing model $DTMD- Mar!ov% is used to a ro+imate the s#stem erformance measures. (urthermore DTMD models are insightful and relativel# easier to construct. Using queueing theor# and simulation models- o timi7ation is not directl# ossi"le. *ne can run different scenarios- "ut it remains unclear whether or not that scenario or solution is o timal or not. This ro"lem can "e solved "# using mathematical models and techniques $li!e ,' and square-root staffing rules% to erform minimi7ations $and thus o timi7ations%- in com"ination with the tools mentioned "efore. 3# erforming such algorithms one can find an o timal solution through convergence or reaching as#m toticall# o timal results. @ s ecific a lication of queueing models is re resented "# the model with gate!ee ers and referral rates where the determination of the ideal referral rate is artl# "ased on the rinci al agent model. @gain validation of develo ed models is ver# im ortant and mentioned "# a num"er of authors. 8e+t to this it is alwa#s interesting to loo! at the sensitivit# of a rocess model. Es eciall# in terms of how sensitive the relationshi is "etween certain arameters of a call center rocess model and the s#stem $overall% erformance. The resence of such an anal#sis reall# "ac!s u the
11

understanding of the s#stem model in terms of interactions and s#stem d#namics and uts it in the right ers ective to .udge on the real value of the develo ed model. @nother clear conclusion is the effect of resource ooling on s#stem erformance. Fhen the num"er of availa"le and suita"le agents to erform as man# tas!s as ossi"le is increased- waiting times will get smaller and s#stem erformance will "e "etter $if that is a erformance criteria of course%. *n the other hand- occu #ing the call center with more fle+i"le agents $generalists% could "e "ad for the qualit# of service. *f course the ooling effects of different agents de end on $waiting- ersonnel% costs and levels of s!ills of generalists and s ecialists. 7.3 Future research

,n most of the studied scientific literature a rather s ecific case or situation is "eing modeled and no real general models or statements are "eing develo ed. Therefore it is no wonder that almost ever# author advises to research call center rocesses from other domains and with other structures to gain more insight in the general wa# of modeling call center rocesses. Fith simulation it is sometimes ro osed to stud# other $develo ed% scenarios to measure s#stem erformance and sensitivit#. Sim lifications and too easil# made assum tions are usuall# the cause of nonrealistic rocess models. This is allowed of course for e+ loring the area of modeling call center rocesses- "ut in ma!ing rogress in call center anal#sismore com le+ rocesses should "e modeled. Simulation modeling rovides the o ortunit# to do so. ,n com"ination with queueing theor# and algorithms to solve minimi7ation ro"lems. (uture research should concentrate on this su".ect"ecause the changing role of call centers $from cost-center to rofit-center% as!s for more com le+ call center rocesses and thus anal#sis and modeling techniques for these more com le+ rocesses. @ll authors state that the e+isting techniques to determine a"andonment and waiting "ehavior $for tele-queues% and service times are still in its infanc#. (urther and future research will "e necessar# to determine realistic arameters as in ut for modeling call centers. >esearch on serviceBhandling times is insufficient and is usuall# "ased on e+ ert o inions. The lac! of real and hard data and the lac! of relia"le and constructive literature ma!e this area a real challenge for future research. )ue to the im ortance of the availa"ilit# of good historical data- a num"er of authors em hasi7es the increasing influence of data"ase management and anal#sis. >ich data"ases do not alwa#s mean rich information. More valua"le data could "e e+tracted from the data"ases.

12

,n the art of the ma.or findings in this cha ter it was alread# stated that most of the erformance measurements used are quantitative. Eualitative measurements though should "ecome more im ortant- "ecause $again% call centers are more and more seen as rofit centers. @uthors mention research in mar!eting and s#cholog# areas to rovide insight in the erce tion of customers in the call center rocesses. ,n order to determine how to measure the qualit# of call center rocesses. *ne author $Ga f- 2;;0% mentions conversation qualit# or customer satisfaction- which is ver# im ort for the overall erformance- "ut if no agent is accessi"le- no conversation ta!es lace and the customer could not "e satisfied at all. So quantitative measures are the "asis "ut not sufficient for an overall evaluation of organi7ational designs. Eualitative measurements should accom an# the traditional quantitative erformance measurements. (urthermore- a num"er of authors mentions the lac! of guidelines for the use of S3> o tions in the @D). The full scale of ossi"ilities of S3> remains unclear and in this area there is much to "e discovered and researched a"out this su".ect. :ans et al. $2;;/% state this with P... the technolog# has raced ahead of managers9 and academics9 understanding of how it ma# "est "e used- and the characteri7ation of effective strategies for s!ill-"ased routing is an o en question at all levels of the ca acit#- lanning hierarch# ...C 7. Managerial implications

@s mentioned "efore in the conclusions managers have to consider man# as ects when $re%designing a call center rocess. Es eciall# in case of new staffing levels since costs for human resources often account for 1;M to 61M of the o erating e+ enses of a call center. @fter Hsolving9 the devil9s quadrangle- the right erformance measurements can "e set u in order to measure when the call center9s overall erformance is o timal. Managers also have to "ear in mind that com etition effect and tas! consolidation la# a ma.or role in ooling resources and com"ining or se arating tas!s. (rom the dilemma of the devil9s quadrangle managers can also learn that $re%designing and staffing call centers o timall# is not .ust a matter of loo!ing at costs or fle+i"ilit#- "ut calls for an inherentl# multidisci linar# research for "etter understanding of customer and DS> "ehavior. @ll as ects have to "e ta!en into account. Fhen modeling the call center rocess it is im ortant to ma!e sure the model re resents the real world as much as ossi"le. @ssum tions and sim lifications can "e made- "ut not too rigorousl#. Estimates and distri"utions ma# "e used for in ut arameters- "ut should "e statisticall# derived from good historical data. This is where data"ase e+ erts could "e enormousl# valua"le. Fith an# modern call center software a lication all data of a service request handled "# a call center is "eing recorded into the data"ase. @ccording to some authors from the researched literature the truth ma# la# within the data"ases.

16

To com lete and secure good modeling it alwa#s remains im ortant to follow the verification and validation ste s necessar# to o"tain a relia"le re resentation of realit#. 7." +imitations and +earning (9periences

Aimitations The sections of future research and managerial im lications alread# clarif# the fact that there are no read#-to-use and Zim lement tools for the dilemma of determining o timal staffing levels. 'artl# due to the redetermined sco e of the literature research and the availa"le time to carr# out the research- , am ver# much aware of the incom leteness of the total amount of scientific literature , studied- researched and discussed in this literature re ort. Though the authors , dealt with in the different sections of this re ort are referred to a lot in man# scientific articles dealing with this su".ect- so a certain scientific value can "e attri"uted to the summari7ed a roaches. The ta"le overview with e+isting tools to anal#7e and solve staffing ro"lems for call centers thus is far from com lete"ut rovides a good re resentation of !nown a roaches. @s stated "efore a lot of the models and a roaches from different authors dealt with in this re ort are far from real- "ecause of too man# sim lifications and assum tions. Es eciall# the lac! of ossi"ilities to measure qualit# of a rocess is a limitation of e+isting techniques. 8e+t to this- usuall# no so histicated characteristics of a call center are modeled. (or e+am le- S3>- overflow strategies- call routing "etween different locations- integration of out"ound activities and integration of outsourcing to roviders. @gain- this is artl# caused "# the ine+ erience of wor!ing with data"ase data and $more im ortant% data"ase information. Summari7ing& some im ortant things to "ear in mind when choosing tools to solve staffing ro"lems in call centers. (urthermore a num"er of authors warns for the e+ ensive and time-consuming simulation techniques and models. 8owada#s though some simulation tools are on the mar!et that are relativel# eas# to use and with the rogress in com uter technolog#- time $to run scenarios and simulations% should not "e a ro"lem. @nother wea! oint in all of the researched literature is- in our o inion- the lac! of use of other distri"utions than Erlang D and @. Some authors mention another distri"ution "ut do not do an#thing to rove the goodness-of-fit of such a distri"ution. Aearning experiences >eading and anal#7ing scientific literature on call center rocesses and issues is ver# useful when e+ eriencing the ractice of a real call center. Dom arison "etween ractice and literature is ver# hel ful when stud#ing the characteristics1<

agent t# es and managerial considerations in a real call center. The rocesses and s ecific characteristics of a call center "ecome more visi"le. Moreover some im ortant as ects arose in this surve#& 1 Managerial a roach towards designing a model of an e+isting call center rocess "# following three identified relevant activities towards determining o timal staffing levels. 2 Use of historic $e.g. @D)% data with forecasting in ut arameters. 3 >ecogni7ing the im ortance of uncertainties- lac! of good datacorrections- $un% redicta"ilit# of events- resence of trends $over time%. Verif#ing and validating models of call center rocesses $simulation and queueing%.

15

2;

+eferences
@!sin *G. and Har!er 'T. Da acit# si7ing in the resence of a common shared resource& )imensioning an in"ound call center. Euro ean Journal of * erational >esearch 2;;/A 406$/%&020Z0</. @ndrews 3 and 'arsons H. Esta"lishing tele hone-agent staffing levels through economic o timi7ation. ,nterfaces 455/A 2/$2%&40Z2;. 3rand 8- van der ?ol! H. For!flow anal#sis and design. )eventer& ?luwer 3edri.fswetenscha en 4551 [in )utch\. 3a at V and 'ruitte Jr E3. Using simulation in call centers. 455< Finter Simulation Donference. 'roceedings- ,EEE- 'iscatawa#- 8J- US@ 455<A 4/51Z 4/55. 3ec!er ?J- :aver )'- :la7e"roo! ?)- Jaco"s '@- =aw hong anich S. Theor# and Methodolog#. @llocation of tas!s to s eciali7ed rocessors& @ lanning a roach. Euro ean Journal of * erational >esearch 2;;;A 422&<;-<<. 3rown =- :ans 8- Mandel"aum @- Sa!ov @- Shen H- Gelt#n S- Ghao =. Statistical anal#sis of a tele hone call center& @ queueing science ers ective. For!ing a er- The Fharton School- Universit# of 'enns#lvania- 'hiladel hia. Electronicall# availa"le as iew/.technion.ac .ilBservengB>eferencesBcallcenter. df- 2;;2. Dhan )]?. )esign an effective wor!flow in simulation. The < international conference on com uter su orted coo erative wor! in design roceedings. ,EEE 2;;/. Dhen 3'? and Henderson S:. Two issues in call centre staffing levels. @nnuals of * erations >esearch 2;;4A 4;<&461-452. )awson ?. The call center hand"oo!& The com lete guide to starting- running and im roving #our call center. San (rancisco& DM' "oo!s- 2;;0. )eslauriers @- =VEcu#er '- 'ichitlam!en J- ,ngolfsson# @- @vramidis 8. Mar!ov chain models of a tele hone call center with call "lending. Technical re ort:E>@) and ),>*- Universit# of Montreal- Danada 2;;0. Electronicall# availa"le as www.iro.umontreal.caB^lecu#erBm#ft B a ersBctmc4. df de V_ricourt (- Ghou ]-'. Managing >es onse Time in a Dall >outing 'ro"lem with Service (ailure. For!ing a er- (uqua School of 3usiness- )u!e Universit#24
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)urham- 8orth Darolina- US@. Electronicall# availa"le as facult#.washington.eduB#ong inBa"s`call"ac!. df- 2;;0. Ernst @T- Jiang H- ?rishnamoorth# M and Sier ). Staff scheduling and rostering& @ review of a lications- methods and models. Euro ean Journal of * erational >esearch 2;;0A 41/&/Z26. :ans 8- ?oole : and Mandel"aum @. Dommissioned 'a er Tele hone Dall Denters& Tutorial- >eview- and >esearch 'ros ects. Manufacturing a Service * erations Management 2;;/A 1$2%& 65Z404. :arnett- *.- @. Mandel"aum. @n introduction to s!ills"ased routing and its o erational com le+ities. Teaching note- Technion- Haifa- ,srael. (ull version availa"le u on requestfrom @M. Electronicall# availa"le as iew/.technion.ac.ilBservengB=ecturesBlectures.html- 2;;4. :rossman T@- *h S= and >ohleder T> and Samuelson )@. Dall centers. Universit# of Dalgar#- Danada. ?luwer online reference wor!s. Electronicall# availa"le as reference.s ringerlin!.com..anus.li"r.tue.nlB!a +sl.as R +mlidK;652/6<26+Bc`sec 2- 2;;4 Hasi.a S- 'in!er EJ and Shums!# >@. Staffing and >outing in a Two-Tier Dall Denter. Simon School- Universit# of >ochester- >ochester- 8ew ]or! 2;;1. Henderson S: and Mason @J. >ostering "# ,terating ,nteger 'rogramming and Simulation. 'roceedings of the 455< Finter Simulation Donference 455<. Hillier (S and =ie"erman :J. ,ntroduction to * erations >esearch. Si+th EditionMc:raw-Hill ,nternational Editions- ,ndustrial Engineering Series- 4551. Jong"loed- : and ?oole- :M. Managing uncertaint# in call centers using 'oisson mi+tures. @ lied Stochastic Models in 3usiness and ,ndustr# 2;;4A 46&/;6-/4<. ?oole :M. Dall Denter Mathematics& @ scientific method for understanding and im roving contact centers. Vri.e Universiteit- )e artment of Mathematics@msterdamThe 8etherlands. Electronicall# availa"le as www.math.vu.nlB^!ooleBccmath- 2;;1. ?oole :M and Mandel"aum @. Eueueing Models of Dall Denters& @n ,ntroduction. @nnals of * erations >esearch 2;;2A 44/&04Z15. ?oole :M and Van der Sluis E. * timal shift scheduling with a glo"al service level constraint- ,EE Transactions on Scheduling and =ogistics 2;;;A /1&4;054;11.
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=in D?]- =ai ?( and Hung S=. )evelo ment of a wor!force management s#stem for a customer hotline service. Dom uter a * erations Management 2;;;A 26&5<6-4;;0. Mandel"aum @. Dall Denters $Dentres%& >esearch 3i"liogra h# with @"stracts. Electronicall# availa"le as ie.technion.ac.ilBserving- 2;;0.
Ma77uchi- T@ and Fallace- >3. @nal#7ing s!ill-"ased routing call centers using discrete-event simulation and design e+ eriment. 'roceedings of the 2;;0 Finter Simulation Donference- 2;;0.

Masse# F@- 'ar!er :@- Fhitt F. Estimating the arameters of a nonhomogeneous 'oisson rocess with a linear rate. Telecommunication S#stems 4552A 1&/24Z/<<. Mehrotra- V. >inging U 3ig 3usiness. *>BMS Toda# 4556A @ugust&4<-20. Mehrota V and (ama J. Dall center simulation modeling& methods- challengesand o ortunities. 'roceedings of the 2;;/ Finter Simulation Donference- 2;;/. Montgomer# )D and >unger :D. @ lied statistics and ro"a"ilit# for engineers. Second edition. John File# a Sons- ,nc- 4555. 'a r7#c!i M- @"raham @- :uo >- and Mu!!amala S. )ata Mining @ roach for @nal#7ing Dall Denter 'erformance. The 46th ,nternational Donference on ,ndustrial and Engineering @ lications of @rtificial ,ntelligence and E+ ert S#stems- Danada- S ringer Verlag- :erman#- 2;;0. =8@, /;25& 4;52-44;4. 'in!er EJ and Shums!# >@. The Efficienc#-Eualit# Trade-*ff of Dross-Trained For!ers. Manufacturing a Service * erations Management 2;;;A 2$4%&/2-0<. 'ichitlam!en J- )eslauriers @- =VEcu#er '- and @vramidis @8. Modelling and simulation of a tele hone call center. 'roceedings of the 2;;/ Finter Simulation Donference- 2;;/. >ei.ers H@ and =imam Mansar S. 3est ractices in "usiness rocess redesign& an overview and qualitative evaluation of successful redesign heuristics. *mega 2;;1& //&2</ Z /;2. Shums!#- >@- and 'in!er- EJ. :ate!ee ers and >eferrals in ServiceManagement Science- 2;;/A 05$6%- </5b<12. Stollet7 >. 'erformance @nal#sis and * timi7ation of ,n"ound Dall Denters. =ecture notes in economics and mathematical s#stems 12<- S ringer-Verlag 3erlin Heidel"erg- 2;;/.
2/

Stollet7 > and Hel"er S. 'erformance anal#sis of an in"ound call center with s!ills-"ased routing& @ riorit# queueing s#stem with two classes of im atient customers and heterogeneous agents. *> S ectrum 2;;0A 22&//4Z/12. Tanir *- and 3ooth >J. 4555. Dall center simulation in 3ell Danada. 'roceedings of the 4555 Finter Simulation Donference- ,EEE 'ress. Electronicall# availa"le as informs-cs.orgBwsc55 a ersB2/6- 4555. Fallace- >3. 'erformance Modeling and )esign of Dall Denters with S!ill-3ased >outing- ).Sc. )issertation $summar#%- The :eorge Fashington Universit# 2;;0. Fallace. >3. and Fhitt F. >esource 'ooling and Staffing in Dall Denters with S!ill-3ased >outing. Su"mitted to * erations >esearch. Electronicall# availa"le as www-2.cs.cmu.eduB^harcholBF*>MS;0B eo leBwhittBwhitt. df- 2;;0. Ga f- M. (rom the customer to the firm& evaluating generic service rocess designs for incoming customer requests. Dom uters in ,ndustr# 2;;0A 11&1/Z64.

20

2ppendices
Appendi9 A: De-il;s 7uadrangle 3rand and Van der ?ol! $4551% distinguish four main dimensions in the effects of redesign measures& time- cost- qualit# and fle+i"ilit#. ,deall#- a redesign of a "usiness rocess decreases the time required to handle an order- it decreases the required cost of e+ecuting the "usiness rocess- it im roves the qualit# of the service delivered and it im roves the a"ilit# of the "usiness rocess to react to variation. The attractive ro ert# of their model is that- in general- im roving u on one dimension ma# have a wea!ening effect on another. (or e+am lereconciliation tas!s ma# "e added in a "usiness rocess to im rove on the qualit# of the delivered service- "ut this ma# have a draw"ac! on the timeliness of the service deliver#. To signif# the difficult trade-offs that sometimes have to "e made the# refer to their model as the devil9s quadrangle.

Figure

! t%e devil5s 1uadrangle according to 6rand and 7an der 8olk * 00',

21

Appendi9 <: Call center configurations 6ased on &apf ( !!') dimensions Ga f $2;;0% distinguishes two ver# im ortant characteristics he uses to descri"e call center rocesses& 1 the level of difficult# $qualification-mi+ture dimension- standard vs. s ecial requests- alread# descri"ed "efore% 2 the communication channel $s#nchronous vs. a-s#nchronous%. ,n ta"le 2 one can find an overview of ossi"le tas!s of generalists and s ecialists in various call center configurations $two- or one-level and "ac!office%.
(able ! activities and agent groups

(ollowing section 2./- in figures 42 to 41 more ossi"le t# es of configurations of a call center rocess can "e found. @ short descri tion is rovided with the figures. (igure 42 re resents the situation that no se arate grou s for as#nchronous service requests are created. :eneralists for classif#ing and handling standard requests that come in through an# t# e of media. S ecialists for handling s ecial requests that come in through an# t# e of media. The s ecial requests are first classified "# generalists.

Figure #! ()o-level design

22

(igure 4/ gives a re resentation of a call center with se arated communication channels. The "ac!-office is occu ied "# s ecialists. >equests that come in "# $for e+am le% mail are classified and handled "# the "ac!-office. :eneralists onl# classif# and handle standard requests and classif# s ecial requests that come in "# tele hone.

Figure $! 6ack-office design

The strongest integration of qualification $standard and s ecial service requests% grou s is reali7ed within the one-level design in figure 40. ,n this design first and second level $or front office and "ac!-office% will not "e distinguished. ,n this situation generalists and s ecialists are "oth a"le to classif# and handle all t# es of requests. Since most s ecialists are more e+ ensive than generalistsrequests are rimaril# assigned to a free generalist $ riorit# 4%. *nl# if no generalist is availa"le the request will "e assigned to a s ecialist $ riorit# 2%.

Figure &! One-level design

26

,n the two-level design $figure 41% two grou s HHgeneralists 499 and HHs ecialists 499 will "e esta"lished for s#nchronous requests and two additional grou s HHgeneralists 299 and HHs ecialists 299 will "e entrusted with as#nchronous requests. Since in the "ac!-office design generalists handle onl# s#nchronous requests there is no difference "etween integrated and se arated channels in the front office $figure 4/%. ,n the "ac!-office an additional grou has to "e defined for se arated communication channels- so that s#nchronous requests are handled "# the grou HHs ecialists 499 and a-s#nchronous requests "# the grou HHs ecialists 299. (or the se arated version of the one-level design four grou s $generalists 4- generalists 2- s ecialists 4- s ecialists 2% have to "e "uilt similar to the two-level attern. The "asic routing strateg# remains the same as shown in figure 40.

Figure '! ()o-level design )it% separated communication c%annels

The handling of a s#nchronous request is not finished with the com leted call. @dditional after-call wor! has to "e done afterwards "# the agent $figure 42%. This wor! com rises administrative tas!s li!e data entr# and necessar# internal communication. ,n Ga f9s model onl# this art of the after-call wor! is included which is done immediatel# "# the agent who has handled the call. @fter finishing this wor! the agent is availa"le for acce ting further requests.

2<

Figure -! +e1uest classification and %andling for sync%ronous re1uests )it%out for)arding

,n the case of s#nchronous requests customers do not wait for an agent as long as #ou li!e "ut onl# for a articular time eriod. ,f calls are in the waiting queue for a longer time the customer hangs u $figure 46%. Fe call this eriod the waiting tolerance which is determined "# the customers references and his current situation. @fter hanging u some customers re-dial in order to get a free agent. The art of re-dialers is re resented "# the ercentage of re-dialing. The arameter time "etween dial attem ts defines the time interval "etween hanging u and re-dialing.

Figure .! Call abandonment process for sync%ronous re1uests

Ta"le 2 gives a rough summar# of the identified strengths and wea!nesses er qualification-mi+ture. The one-level design $figure 40% is ver# good for handling standard requests "ecause of ooling generalists and s ecialists. The design has wea!nesses for s#nchronous s ecial requests in overload situations and for s ecial a-s#nchronous requests since s ecialists are additional occu ied with standard requests. The "ac!-office design $figure 4/% has strengths in handling as#nchronous requests since s ecialists are reserved for these requests. Dlassif# s#nchronous requests is the wea!ness of the "ac!-office design "ecause of a small generalist grou . The two-level design $figure 42% does "adl# for s#nchronous and a-s#nchronous requests.

25

(able #

The integration of communication channels is in most cases more efficient than the se aration $ta"le /%. *nl# in the "ac!-office design $figure 4/% the integration of communication channels leads to worse erformance for s ecial s#nchronous requests which can "e e+ lained through tas! com etition "etween handling s#nchronous and a-s#nchronous requests.
(able $

6;

Appendi9 C: Canonical designs for 0<R ,n section 2.2.2 the rinci les of S3> are introduced. To visuali7e the different ossi"le routing olicies this a endi+ rovides some canonical designs- which are also meant for t# olog# and control sim lification in modeling call centers and routing olicies. To olog# Sim lification. The first means of reduction is to consider sim le s ecial networ! to ologies such as those shown in (igure 4<. These configurations re resent "uilding "loc!s for more com le+ s#stems. (or e+am le- in a PVQ design a single ool of agents handles two $or more% t# es of calls. ,n a PFQ design- two ools of agents cater to three t# es of calls& 'ool 4 serves T# es 4 and 2A 'ool 2 serves T# es 2 and /. The POQ design- in which two t# es of calls can "e served "# either of two ools of agents- re resents full fle+i"ilit#. ,t also reflects the fact that s!ill grou s ma# "e defined on a relative- rather than a"solute- "asis. (or e+am le- an O-design arises when DS> 'ool 4 is assigned call T# e 4 as a P rimar# s!ill-Q DS> 'ool 2 is assigned call T# e 2 as rimar#- and "oth ools have the other t# e of call assigned as secondar#. @ ool ta!es Psecondar# s!illQ calls onl# when deemed necessar#& Sa#- onl# if it has idle DS>s and the other ool is congested. ,n this case- s!ills-"ased routing ca tures the fact that different t# e-to- ool assignments have differing $ erha s im licit% costs or rewards. ,t is also im ortant to note that the same networ! to olog# can "e used quite differentl#given various levels of traffic and routing schemes. (or e+am le- an P8Q design can "e used when T# e-4 customers are V,' "ut there are not enough s eciali7ed 'ool-4 DS>s to serve them. ,n this case- 'ool-2 DS>s can contri"ute to maintaining an adequate service level for T# e 4s. Donversel#- the same 8design can "e used when T# e-2 customers are V,' and 'ool-2 ca acit# is in e+cess. Here- acce ta"le resource efficienc# can "e maintained "# routing T# e4 calls to idle 'ool-2 DS>s.

Figure /! different canonical designs for S6+

64

(igure 45 is an e+am le of a s#stem with an ela"orate s!ills -"ased routing structure. ,n it si+ t# es of calls are routed to five ools of agents. @ll agents in a ool can handle the same set of call t# esA equivalentl# it is said that the agents within a ool have the same s!ills. @rrows "etween call t# es and agent ools descri"e the various ools9 s!ills. )ashed arrows at the sides of queues re resent customer a"andonment. $8ote that the nomenclature for s!ills-"ased routing has not #et "ecome standardi7ed. (or e+am le- one @D) manufacturer refers to customer t# es as Ps!illsQ and to agents with the same s!ills as having the same Ps!ill set.Q%

Figure 0! 2n 9:ample of Skills-6ased +outing

62

Appendi9 D: )ierarchical -ie5 of arri-al rates *ver short eriods of time- minute-"#-minute for e+am le- there is significant stochastic varia"ilit# in the num"er of arriving calls. *ver longer eriods of timeb the course of the da#- the da#s of the wee! or month- the months of the #ear there also can "e redicta"le varia"ilit#- such as the seasonal atterns that arriving calls follow $figure 2;%.

Figure #3! 2 ;ierarc%ical 7ie) of 2rrival +ates *<ans4 8oole and Mandelbaum4 #33$,

@t the lowest level of the hierarch#- the arrival times of individual calls are not redicta"le $lower right anel of figure 2;%. Here- common ractice uses the MTMT 8 $Erlang D% queueing model to estimate stationar# s#stem erformance of short - half-hour or hour - intervals.

6/

Appendi9 (: Ma33uchi and 4allace ( !!') %erformance measurements Ma77uchi and Fallace $2;;0% rovide a list with some commonl# used erformance metrics. 1 the ro"a"ilit# that an arriving caller is "loc!ed 2 s eed-to-answer erformance measures 3 trac!ing agent9s utili7ation The first two erformance metrics are usuall# included in the Service =evel @greement. The last erformance metric normall# contains several su"measurements. ,n this a endi+ some more detailed information is rovided a"out the s ecific formulas of the erformance metrics. E is num"er of callers in s#stem ) is aggregate dela# e+ erienced "# caller $callt# e i%
(able &! performance measurements according to Ma==uc%i and >allace *#33&,

The first erformance metric- the ro"a"ilit# that an arriving caller is "loc!ed- is a measure of the call center9s availa"ilit# and is sometimes a art of the service level agreements $S=@s%. The second arameter E[) TE c D L ?\ and the fourth '$) d e TE c D L ?% are s eed-to-answer erformance measures and are t# icall# a art of the service levels as well. These two aggregate quantities are conditioned given admission or entr# into the s#stem. Usuall#- one of the two and not "oth s eed-to-answer metrics is a art of the S=@. @verage s eed to answer $@S@% is the call center term reserved for E[) TE c D L ?\. 3oth S eed-to-answer and availa"ilit# S=@s drive staffing and equi ment $trun! lines% requirements. Masse# and Fallace $2;;0% develo ed as#m totic-"ased algorithms to determine o timal $D-?% in a MTMTDT? queue while holding the S=@s for "loc!ing and the conditional ro"a"ilit# of dela# fi+ed.
60

The last three measures of erformance deal s ecificall# with trac!ing agent9s utili7ation. The average utili7ation for an agent is the ercent of time that heBshe is "us# rocessing calls or one minus the fraction of time heBshe is idle.

61

Appendi9 F: +in, +ai and )ung (199*) The authors9 case deals with a 20H hotline service. The authors use an integrated a roach- on a monthl# "asis- in which one of the final stages towards scheduling is the activit# that im lies the use of historical data- the choice for call center configuration and other information $figure 24%. @ regression model leads to a simulation model- with outcomes that can "e used to ma!e decisions for rostering and scheduling $heuristics%. =in- =ai and Hung $455<% use a ver# sim le erformance measure. 3# using the @D) re ort $ta"le 1% the s#stem erformance is measured "# means of the call a"andonment rate- defined "# $a"and calls%B$@D) calls L a"and calls% - where a"and calls and @D) calls denote the num"ers of a"andoned calls $after entering the queue% and com leted calls- res ectivel#.
(able '! an e:ample of an 2CD report

The total calls $K @"and calls L @D) calls% rovide forecasts for future call volume. 3ased on discussion with management and su ervisors- the forecast is made on an hourl# "asis for the 6 da#s in an average wee!- as call traffic and tal! time reflect hourl# and wee!da# differences. The forecasting model ado ted is the sim le "ut efficient /-month moving average $for each hour in the wee!% as no articular trend was o"served. ,n choosing an a ro riate model to relate service level with the s#stem arameters- the regression model of a"andonment 2 rate $#ih% on wor!load $+ih% was found to give high correlation $> over ;.6% in more than 4;; hrs $out of 20+6K42< hrs% in the wee!. These occur mostl# in da#time and evening hours when call traffic is significant. Hence for each hour h $hK;-f- 2/% on wee!da# i $iK4-f-6%- we first e+amine the following linear relationshi in the recent / monthsV data& &
i (

K mi( <i( Lci( LB K ( a.and calls)i( -(total calls)i(

$2%

where

&
i (

62

(totals calls)i( -60./0 i( (net staff -(A/g talk le/el)i( time)i( and mih- cih are regression coefficients estimated from the least-squares method. 2 ,f this model is adequate for hour h on wee!da# i $> over ;.6%- we can set #ih at the target a"andonment rate $<M "etween <&;;-20&;;- 20&;;-4&;; and 41M "etween 4&;;-<&;;% and directl# evaluate the net staff level required "# m( $ total calls%i( - 60 $/% $ &i( gci( %- $A/g talk time%i( net staff le/el K

<

K 2orkload Kdemand /olume- ser/ice capacit& K

where

$ total calls%i( and $A/g talk time%i( re

resent the /-month moving average

for the s ecific hour and wee!da# of interest. (or those hours $a"out 1;-2;% showing oor correlation in Equation $2%- or hours which have insufficient ast data for constructing the regression model- queuing simulation model is a lied to evaluate the net staff level. The resent networ! structure a ro+imates an MB:BcB? queuing model with a"andoned calls. @s the unca acitated MB:Bc model with no a"andoned calls alread# involves com le+ integral equations- a single-stage queuing simulation model was ado ted for this more com licated case. The random factors in the simulation model include 'oisson call arrivals- normall# distri"uted tal! time and a"andonment time. ,n estimating the in ut arameter of average a"andonment time- it is o"served that a ositive linear relationshi ma# sometimes e+ist "etween @vg a"and time $Ta"le% and wor!load as in Equation $2%- "ut with # ih denoting @vg a"and time for

hour h on wee!da# i. Hence- a linear model is first tested for its adequac# $> 2 over ;.6%. ,f > is less than ;.6- the /-month moving average of @vg a"and time from the @D) re ort is used for estimation. $8ote that if the linear model is validthe redicted average a"andonment time is recalculated from Equation $2% when the net staff level changes in the simulation runs.% ,n the simulation model- an a"andoned call is defined as one whose waiting time is longer than its generated a"andonment time. The net staff level is initiall# ta!en as an integer smaller than the average over the recent / months $e.g. average net staff level - 1%. The average call a"andonment rate is recorded over /; re lications to "e com ared with the target service level. The net staff level would "e incremented "# one for ever# /; re lications until the service level is satisfied. The minimum net staff level is thus o"tained.

(rom ast o"servation- roduct romotion and u"lic holida#s would affect the call traffic. The s#stem also allows user-in ut of a call ad.usting factor $r% on articular hours or da#s s ecified. @ccordingl#- the minimum net staff level required would either "e calculated directl# from Equation $/% "# multi l#ing with the factor r- or "# erforming simulation runs with the ad.usted total calls for those hours or da#s of concern.

66

The outcomes of the methodolog# as mentioned a"ove are hourl# forecasts of call traffic and the minimum $net% man ower requirement on ever#da# of the month.

Figure # ! Logic flo) of t%e )orkforce management system

6<

Appendi9 #: Chan ( !!") 3ased on the identified ?e# *ut ut 'erformance Varia"les $?*'V% and the ?e# ,n ut 'erformance Varia"les $?,'V% "# Dhan $2;;/% a num"er of activities can "e erformed to design an effective wor!flow for call centers using simulation tools. Simulation ena"les d#namic anal#sis- which is necessar# to anal#7e rocesses. @ list of ste s in the design rocess is rovided& The following are ste s in designing an effective wor!flow using simulation. 1. ,dentif# the !e# out ut erformance varia"les $?*'V% of the rocess. 2. ,dentif# the !e# in ut erformance varia"les $?,'V% that affect the ?*'V. 3. )etermine the sequence of wor! and document it using a flowchart. . Dollect and esta"lish the rocess and resource arameters that will have im act on the ?*'V defined such as inter-arrival time- c#cle timeresource availa"ilit#- effective o eration hours- cost of o eration and others. ". Esta"lish the constraints and limitations. 6. Ma!e a model of the wor!flow and in ut all information a"ove using a rocess-simulation software and conduct simulation on the model lanned. 7. Validate the accurac# of the model with e+ erts of the rocess or management and ma!e modification on model till the model is validated. 8. @nal#7e the ?*'V o"tained from the simulation of the initial design to see if the model meets the requirement. 9. Ma!e changes on the rocess arameters $Cwhat-ifV anal#sis% to find out if there are "etter the alternatives to meet the ?*'V. Select the most effective wor!flow from the various ossi"le o tions. Effectiveness de ends on the ?*'Vs identified. These are usuall# quantitative erformance measurements.

65

Appendi9 ): &apf ( !!'), -alidation and -erification steps The suita"ilit# of the simulation model can "e chec!ed in the following validation and verification ste s& 1. Donce tual model validation& determine that the conce tual model is reasona"le and correct for the intended a lication. 2. Dom uteri7ed model verification& ensure that the com uter rogramming and im lementation of the model is correct. 3. )ata validit#& ensure that data is a ro riate- accurate and sufficient. . * erational validit#& determine that the results are sufficient accurate for the intended ur ose over the a lication domain. @d 4. (or the conce tual model validation the face validit# technique can "e used. The generic service rocess designs and the model details should "e develo ed and discussed with communication center e+ erts in order to ensure that the models are reasona"le. (or "uilding the conce tual model also different real communication centers of the domains "an!"oo! trade- car rental and energ# industr# have to "e anal#7ed. @d 2. @fter face validation- which was mainl# "ased on gra hical rocess models and ver"al rocess descri tions- the rocess logic has to "e chec!ed through trace technique. The different request t# es have to "e trac!ed through ever# su"model to determine whether the logic is correct and the necessar# accurac# is maintained. )ifferent d#namic testing techniques have to "e a lied for com uteri7ed model verification and the simulation models have to "e e+ecuted under various conditions& 1. (i+ed values& fi+ed values $constant factors% have to "e defined for selected in ut varia"les $e.g. classification time- handling timesarrival rates% and the erformance values have to "e chec!ed against hand calculated values. 2. Dom arison to other models& su"-models have to "e com ared to anal#tical MBMBl and MBMBn queueing models. 3. Sensitivit# anal#sis& selected in ut arameters $e.g. after-call timeercentage of re-dialing% have to "e modified and the effect u on the results has to "e determined. @d /. To ensure data validit# real data is used which should "e collected automaticall# "# the @D) s#stem $@utomatic call distri"ution% for the average request volume and average handling times of s#nchronous request. The stochastic distri"ution for the handling times has to "e derived from the em irical data and statisticall# validated with the Dhi-2test and the test of ?olmogorovBSmirnov. The other data also has to "e logged "# the @D) s#stem or rovided "# e+ erts. Fithin the com uteri7ed model verification sensitivit# anal#sis was used to ensure
<;

that small changes of these arameters are not criticall# for the erformance measurement. @d 0. >egarding the o erational validit# 51M confidence intervals have to "e calculated for ever# erformance measure. ,n order to reflect the nature of a communication center the single e+ eriments have to "e erformed in the form of multi le terminating simulation runs. (or ever# e+ eriment /; inde endent re lications have to "e made according to a general rule. @t the end of each re lication it has to "e chec!ed that sufficient data has "een collected and that the out ut data is not correlated.

<4

Appendi9 .: )asi8a et al$ ( !!=), treatment threshold / d Hasi.a et al. $2;;1% researched sensitivit# of the models and rocesses used. The cost-minimi7ing referral rate varies with changes in arameters related to queuing- i.e.- arrival rates and service rates. Fhen the arrival rate increases- the o timal referral rate converges to the o timal referral rate $for the deterministic case%. (or ver# large I- waiting costs are relativel# small- com ared to the sum of staffing and mistreatment costs. Therefore it is o timal to use the treatment threshold from a deterministic model- which onl# considers staffing and mistreatment costs. The authors also rovide a rule of thum" for choosing the o timal s#stem. Treatment threshold ! d is the main arameter the rule is "ased on. This a endi+ includes a more "roadl# descri tion of the rule and of the methodolog# followed "# Hasi.a et al. $2;;1%. The authors found that with a certain s!ill level of the gate!ee er a direct access s#stem $onl# e+ erts% is o timal. So- to .ustif# gate!ee ers $assumed high waiting costs% the# should have high level s!ills. The Eueueing 8etwor! Model @n o en queueing networ! model of a service center with gate!ee ers is descri"ed. The Hnetwor!9 is essentiall# two queues in series& n g gate!ee ers and ne e+ erts- with a staffing costs cg and ce er unit time- res ectivel# $see figure%. Dustomers $or Hcalls9% arrive to the gate!ee ers according to a 'oisson rocess with rate I. To the gate!ee ers- the calls var# in difficult# and com le+it#- and the difficult# of each call is re resented with a random draw from a uniform distri"ution- U[;-4\. This random varia"le re resents the call9s ercentile in a ran!ing of calls "# treatment com le+it#. :iven that a call has com le+it# +- the ro"a"ilit# that the customer can "e treated successfull# "# the gate!ee er is f$+%& treatment function. 3ecause com le+it# increases with +- we assume that f;$+% d ;.

Figure ##! gatekeeper and referral configuration of a call center

Fith each new call- a gate!ee er s ends time diagnosing the ro"lem and determining the com le+it# $the value of +%. The gate!ee er ma# then either send
<2

the call directl# to the e+ ert ool or attem t to solve the ro"lem. ,f the gate!ee er successfull# solves- or Htreats-9 the ro"lem- the call leaves the s#stem. ,f the gate!ee er attem ts to treat and the treatment fails- a cost m due to the inconvenience is assessed to the customer- and the call is sent to the e+ ert ool. *nce a call has reached an e+ ert- it is served and leaves the s#stem. 3oth server ools have unlimited waiting s ace- and there is a cost w for each unit of time s ent waiting. The time required for an e+ ert to treat a call averages 4BJ. The time for a gate!ee er to diagnose a call averages 4BJ d- while the average time to diagnose and treat is 4BJ t S 4BJd. ,f the gate!ee er follows a static olic# and treats a ro ortion ! of calls- then the gate!ee er9s service rate is=$k %K =

1 gk
d

L=

k
t

g1

@ssum tion& service times are distri"uted as inde endent- e+ onential random varia"les- even when the gate!ee er onl# diagnoses some calls- and com"ines diagnosis with treatment in other calls. :iven these assum tions- the gate!ee er and e+ ert ools can each "e modeled as MTMT8 queueing s#stems- where the arrival rate to the e+ ert ool is the sum of the rate of calls untreated "# the gate!ee er and the rate of calls mistreated "# the gate!ee er. Minimi7ing costs is the o".ective. Some arameters can "e fi+ed- others varia"le. Solving this ro"lem can "e done numericall# $minimi7ing the o".ective function under certain restrictions% and is descri"ed in section 0./- a"out mathematical models. Donsidering different service times for e+ erts and gate!ee ers $diagnosing and ma# "e treatment%- a more accurate model would use a mi+ture of two e+ onential service times& a ro ortion ! with mean 4BJ t and 4g! with mean 4BJd. :iven that the gate!ee er9s service times follow such a distri"ution- the gate!ee er ool is modeled as an MTH 2T8 queue and the e+ ert ool as a :TMT8 queue. This ro"lem can easil# "e solved with square-root staffing- descri"ed in section 0./. The )eterministic Model @ lot of numerical e+ eriments have "een erformed "# the authors and in ever# case the heuristic and o timal solutions are nearl# identical- and the difference in total cost when using each is negligi"le. Donsider a deterministic model of the two-tier s#stem with no stochastic varia"ilit# in the arrival or service rates- so that the ca acit# of the gate!ee er and e+ ert ools are set equal to the load. :iven the linear treatment function f $!%- the total cost of this s#stem is
d

1g k

k
L ce

C$1 g.k L.k - 2%

C
2

= t d and the o timal treatment threshold is-

$k %K cg C

L mC$k g.k L.k

</

1
mLc

= g
t
=
d

k K

g m L ce 1 =

@ one-tier deterministic model has total costC1d K ce =

>ule of thum" for choosing o timal s#stem The choice of a one or two-tier s#stem should "e "ased on a cost com arison that ta!es o timal staffing and waiting costs into account. Therefore- the following rule of thum" is ro osed for choosing the o timal s#stem& d 1. Dalculate ! using Equation 2. d 2. Using ! as the treatment threshold- use the square-root staffing rule to determine the num"er of gate!ee ers and e+ erts in a two-tier s#stem. d :iven these staffing levels- calculate the total cost h 2$! %. @lso using the square-root staffing rule- determine the num"er of e+ erts in the directaccess s#stem and calculate the cost h4. d d 3. ,f h2$! % c h4- choose a two-tier s#stem using ! as the treatment threshold. *therwise- choose a direct-access s#stem. h This rule of thum" does not require managers to find ! or ! $a ro+imations%d "oth of which require significant com utational effort com ared to finding ! .

<0

Appendi9 >: A/2in and )ar/er ( !!")

>evenue is generated "# serving a customer. Each time a customer is lost- the s#stem incurs a revenue loss. Thus- in order to relate staffing decisions to revenuesone needs to characteri7e the customer loss as a function of the num"er of servers. :iven average revenue er customer served- and the ro ortion of customers that are lost- one can then determine the total revenues generated in the s#stem. The anal#sis will assume that customer loss can occur in two different forms. The first one of these- la"eled as "loc!ed customers- occurs whenever the finite resources $servers and "uffers% are all occu ied "# e+isting customers and the arriving customer leaves. The second t# e of loss occurs when all servers are "us#- the customer is laced in one of the availa"le "uffer resources to wait- however loses atience and leaves. This latter t# e of loss will "e la"eled as a renege. The si7ing ro"lem considers a service s#stem with ! K 4-f-? t# es of customers. Each t# e of customer will "e served "# an access channel- alternativel# called a de artmentwith dedicated servers. :iven the demand rates I !- the o".ective is to determine the num"er of service agents to "e em lo#ed for the different access channels- such that s#stemwide revenues net of costs are ma+imi7ed. More s ecificall#- the model can "e stated as&

.12 i= / k Ck $1 g !k $ S # T %%$1g Rk $S#T %%gC s $Sk %

s k K1

where 1 S K $S4-f-S?%- server allocation vectorA 2 T K $T4-f-T?%- "uffer allocation vectorA 3 3!$S- T%- "loc!ing ro"a"ilit# for t# e ! customersA >!$S- T%- renege ro"a"ilit# for t# e ! customersA " v!- revenue generated from t# e ! customersA s 6 D $S!%- cost associated with !ee ing S! agents of s eciali7ation ! for a single time eriod. @ si7ing algorithm ,f one can decom ose the service s#stem into single class s#stems in a wa# that ca tures the interaction "etween classes in the original s#stem- one can then inde endentl# determine the o timal staffing levels in each single class su"s#stem. This idea is used in the algorithms in the article "# @!Nin and Har!er $2;;/%. ,n articular- the algorithms will start "# decom osing the original s#stem into individual single class s#stems- will determine staffing levels for each single class s#stem- and then go "ac! to the original s#stem and iterate the same rocedure. The algorithms will sto once equili"rium is attained. Variations in the wa# the s#stem is decom osed and the individual class staffing is erformed lead to two different versions of this "asic algorithm. 8umerical e+am les are used to generate guidelines for when one would refer to use which algorithm. The interaction "etween classes can "e ca tured as a change in the service rates. This is characteri7ed "# the state-de endent service rates J$n% in a s#stem with
<1

reneging. Thus- a multi-class s#stem with reneging can "e treated as ? inde endent single class s#stems- where service rates J ! in each class are modified such that the# are as close as ossi"le to the original rates& $n =k ./0$n k # Sk =

%K

ii=K1 ./0$n i # Si
%

These rates change d#namicall# as the state vector n changes. The erformance model is "ased on queueing theor#. (or detailed information on the algorithms and the erformance model- lease chec! the article "# @!Nin and Har!er $2;;/%.

<2

Appendi9 ?: Ta6le o-er-ie5 of e9isting approaches ,n this a endi+ a summar#Blisting is rovided from the results of cha ters 2 to 2. (irst the authors that resented a $re%design a roach towards determining staffing levels for call centers will "e listed. (or these authors the ta"le re resents the authors9 name- the characteristics of the $re%design a roach- the t# olog# of the human resources occu #ing the call center- the t# e of measurements and the s ecial characteristics $com ared to the other a roaches and authors%. @t the end of the ta"le a num"er of authors $@!Nin and Har!er $2;;/%- 'in!er and Shums!# $2;;;%- Ma77uchi and Fallace $2;;0% and 'ichitlam!in et al. $2;;/%% is listed that do not resent an# articular $re%design a roach- "ut rovide interesting information on the other characteristics of determining o timal staffing levels.

<6

(able -! overvie) of e:isting approac%es to)ards determining staffing levels4 listed by aut%or (ypology of 2ut%or*s, *+e,design 2pproac% ;uman (ype of Performance +esources Measurements )ans et Two regimes of al. Da acit# Management on different erformance Management are 1$77.2 hierarchical levels& mentioned& 4. low& queueing models $dail#Bwee!l#% 2. intermediate& math. rogr models :eneral t# olog#B Efficienc#-)riven $E)% /. high& long-term lanning models Human >esources $quantitative% and $for hiring and training% Eualit#-Efficienc# )riven forecasting and estimation $for $EE)% $quantitative and erformance% models to determine qualitative% good in ut arameters :apf 1$77;2 Three design dimensions& 4. Tas! allocation to generalists andBor s ecialists 2. (ront-*ffice and 3ac!-*ffice >oles /. )egree of integration of s#nchronous and a-s#nchronous service requests Using Eueueing Theor# and Simulation Modeling together to determine o timal staffing levels 'asiDa et al. 1$7732 E +humsky and 5inker 1$77.2 'rinci al agent model is used as "asis for determining the o timal referral rate and thus the division of wor!load over 4st and 2nd tier servers :eneralists S ecialists The division of roles and tas!s is not strict "ut varia"le $4st and 2nd line- (* @nd 3*integrated% :ate!ee ers E+ erts Mainl# quantitative. 3ased on these quantitative some general qualitative conclusions are drawn $agent ooling and tas! com etition%

Special C%aracteristics

Suggestion to use )#namic 'rogramming for the routing ro"lem T# olog# Sim lification "# means of logical canonical designs for different S3> olicies Square-root staffing rules for certain canonical designs for S3> olicies

)ue to the use of Eueueing Theor# and =inear 'rogrammingthe modeling com le+it# can "e quite high 8ice and clear re resentations of different call center Structures and designs. *utcalls are also modeled

Stochastic discrete event simulation $to overcome certain com le+it# restrictions of modeling% @gent ooling and tas! com etition are e+ licitl# dealt with

Mainl# quantitative- "ut also Eualitative. Ma+imi7ing the firms rofit is ver# im ortant Dost minimi7ing referral rate

>eferral rate "ased on rinci al agent model Square-root staffing rule for o timal staffing levels

2ut%or*s,

*+e,design 2pproac%

(ypology ;uman +esource s *ut ut

of

(ype of Performance Measurements

Special C%aracteristics

Chan 1$77.2

,dentificatio n of ?e# 'erformanc e Varia"les $?*'V% and ?e# ,n ut 'erformance Varia"les $?,'V% =eading to a simulation model

Mainl# quantitative. :eneral t# olog#B Human >esources )e ends on ?*'Vs identified

Ver# clear and detailed a develo ing a simulation model

roach towards

Main o".ective is to grant effectiveness

:eneral a roach which should "e a wide >ange of different call centers

lica"le to a

6rnst et al. 1$77;2

)emand modeling "ased on forecasts on in ut arameters and satisf#ing service standards Using Eueueing Theor# and Simulation Modeling together for o timalit# and com le+ s#stemsB rocesses Euantitative& minimi7ing costs :eneral t# olog#B Human >esources Eualitative& customer and em lo#ee satisfaction 'ro osed $re%design activities are art of a $ ractical% rostering tool

4ehrota 1%FFG2 E 4ehrota and @ama 1$77.2

For!force Management Software

@gents articular S!ills%

$wit h

Mehrota $4556% uses onl# quantitative measurements Mehrota and (ama $2;;/% use "oth quantitative and qualitative measurements. The# also measure the well-"eing of call center agents Euantitative& D:*S $customer

Euite an o erational a centers

roach towards staffing call

8o mathematical foundations rovided

@lso cross-trained agents is mentione d

'enderson and 4ason 1%FFH2

Eueueing Theor# andBor simulation modeling to determine staffing requirements for each eriod of the da# Three techniques rovided to do so

Three techniques to determine staff requirements& 4. Stead#-state queueing models 2. 8umericall# calculate time var#ing distri"ution of :*S $grade of service% /. Simulation

:eneral t# olog#B Human >esources

grade of service% de ends on the customer9s waiting time in queue Eualitative& customer9s waiting

time in queue and utilit# curves are used to o"tain customer satisfaction

>,,'S $>ostering "# ,terating ,nteger 'rogramming and Simulation% is a convergence tool that minimi7es costs $lin!ing "etween ad.acent time"loc!s is missing%

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2ut%or*s,

*+e,design 2pproac%

(ypology of ;uman +esources

(ype of Performance Measurements

Special C%aracteristics

Ain, Aai and 'ung 1%FFH2

>egression model "ased on& - forecasts- call center configuration - and the u"lic holida# file simulation model delivers staff requirements $meant for scheduling and rostering%

Juniors Seniors $"ased on e+ erience =evel%

Euantitative- de ends on the num"er of a"andoned calls

*verla ing shifts- aimed at staffing a 20B20 hotline or call center

AkIin and 'arker 1$77.2

Servers Dommonl# shared >esources $information S#stem%

Mainl# quantitative- "ut also qualitative $concluding from some quantitative measurements% Ma+imi7ation of revenues is related to the negative effect of lost customers Mainl# quantitative- "ut also qualitative $concluding Dommonl# shared resource $,S% as the "ottlenec! resource

5inker and +humsky 1$7772

(le+i"le and S eciali7ed wor!ers

from some quantitative measurements% The Eualit# of Service is >elated to the fraction of customers served $which is ositivel# related to the revenues of the s#stem%

Eueueing and waiting times ignored $"ecause of the em hasis on sim le quantitative measurements%

4a//uchi and allace 1$77;2

,ndividual agents with a s!ills matri+ Euantitative& - s eed to answer measurements - "loc!ing ro"a"ilities - agent9s utili7ation The use of a s!ills matri+ for the agents Server e+ erience is not influencing the service time $ er s!ill% *utcalls as well $not related to incoming service requests% Use of Simulation and Eueueing Theor# together to o"tain

5ichitlamkin et al. 1$77.2

,n"ound onl# agents 3lend agents $handle *verflow from in"ound%

Euantitative. Eueueing model $DTMD% used to measure s#stem erformance

o timal results

5;