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8 10 12 14 16 18 20
EQUIVALENT MUD WEIGHT (ppg)
FIGURE 2
WELL A, PRE-DRILL AND ACTUAL
PQRE PRESSURES AND FRACTURE GRADIENTS
a
5,000
15,000
20,000
I 10,000
t
LU
o
50 100 150 200
TIME (days)
o
20,000
FIGURE 1
TIME vs. DEPTH (3 WELLS)
a
5,000 -H---+---f----++lM..<;!=M""1 ....., ...
-
FIGURE 3
WELL B, PRE-DRILL AND ACTUAL
PORE PRESSURES AND FRACTURE GRADIENTS
o
FIGURE 4
WELL C, PRE-DRILL AND ACTUAL
PORE PRESSURES AND FRACTURE GRADIENTS
o
25,000 25,000
I
.......
5,000
I
t
15,000 -f----!----'-----eL---llI:
I
i
20,000 -1--,...... 1 .......__
Pro-llrtI PonI-.e , Pre-OrtII F"'" o_
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i ! i ! I
PonI_, LoR-e-od Frac GfOdIIr1l
0:- i
8 10 12 14 18 18 20
EQUIVALENT MUD WEIGHT (ppg)
8 10 12 14 18 18 20
EQUIVALENT MUD WEIGHT (ppg)
568
IADC/SPE 27493
lliOMAS SlRENGERPROEHL 7
FIGURE 5. WELL A
PORE PRESSURE. FRAC GRADIENT. MUD WEIGHT
FIGURE 6. WELL B
PORE PRESSURE. FRAC GRADIENT. MUDWEIGHT
c_
w" :W"A
-,
c-..,: ... :
APt.: W.. lltwnLA
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FIGURE 7. WELL C
PORE PRESSURE. FRAC GRADIENT. MUD WEIGHT
-
w" :W"C
-,
c.....y: ... :
APt. : w.l1It WElle
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569
8 PORE PRESSURES, FRACTIJRE GRADIENTS
ANDDRllllNGECONOMICS
IADC/SPE 27493
Ev-nt: MlftOt Lo.t elreul.don
ProMblllfy:UTS
-.,
IblMded Drr-: .."
E...nt: Molonl Clre"l.tkMI
'nablIItf.G.2S0
0..,.:0
Ibpected o.y.: 0."
....nt: Normal Circulation T......
Prot.blUtr: 0.100
0.",:0
EI,.et..t o.y.: 115
IEftnt:lluck ",.
Pntbrlblllty: 0.050
0.,.: to
&,.eIMi 0.,.: IUS
Evont: Ele...m ClrculaUon
Pr.bllhy. O.toO
0....:1
bpeclMD-p:1G.11
Altwn.lh: Drill N." Saltine-
0..,.:0
Elpect.clo..,.:I.U
FIGURE 8, DECISION TREE FOR
HOWTO HANDLE GAS-CUT MUD
FIGURE 9, CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY FOR
HOWTO HANDLE GAS-CUT MUD
20 15
I
10
x Days
5
75
25
50
Cumulative Risk Profile for "How to handle GCM" Decision
Chance 100
that
Payoff is
Less
Than or
Equal to
x(%)
570
IADC/SPE 27493 THOMAS S1RENGERPROEHL
TABLE 1
"How to handle GCM" dTree Inputs
9
Alternatives:
1. Drill Near Balance
2. Drill Over Balance (possibly close to frac gradient)
Event Hierarchy for 'Drill Over Balance' Alternative
1. Lost Circulation
a. Minor; p=0.375, cost=8 days
Stuck Pipe; p=0.05, cost=1 0 days
Kick; p=0.1, cost=2 days
Excessive Circulation; p=0.15, cost=3 days
No Trouble; p=0.75, cost=O days
No Stuck Pipe; p=0.95, cost=O days
Kick: p=0.1, cost=2 days
Excessive Circulation; p=0.15, cost=3 days
No Trouble; p=0.75, cost=O days
b. Major; p=0.375, cost=20 days
Stuck Pipe: p=0.60, cost=1 0 days
No Stuck Pipe; p=0.40, cost=O days
c. No Lost Circulation: p=0.25, cost=O days
Kick; p=0.25, cost=2 days
Excessive Circulation; p=0.15, cost=3 days
No Trouble; p=0.60, cost=O days
Event Hierarchy for 'Drill Near Balance' Alternative
1. Excessive Circulation; p=0.90, cost=7 days
a. Kick; p=0.50, cost=3 days
Stuck Pipe; p=0.25, cost=1 0 days
Lost Circulation; p=0.1 0, cost=8days
No Trouble; p=0.65, cost=O days
b. No Kick; p=0.50, cost=O days
2. Normal Circulation Time; p=0.1 0, cost=O days
a. Kick; p=0.50, cost=3 days
Stuck Pipe; p=0.25, cost=10 days
Lost Circulation; p=0.1 0, cost=8 days
No Trouble; p=0.65, cost=O days
b. No Kick; p=0.50, cost=O days
Note: Event Hierarchy, probabilities and costs can be changed to reflect latest information. This is an approach to
making better decisions and finding a better answer, not a search for a "correct" answer. Convert to cost by assuming a
dayrate of $6,000.
571