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A Real Risk Assessment

Rick A
A. Morris
Morris, PMP
PMP, ITIL
ITIL, MCTS
Agenda

1. Overview of Current Risk Process

2. Two Constraining Laws

3 How to Capture Real Risk


3.

4. A New Risk Assessment Tool

5. Questions and Answers


Current Process

¾…so we are told:

Create
WBS
Current Process

¾…so we are told:

Create Identify
WBS Risks
Current Process

¾…so we are told:

Create Identify Qualify


WBS Risks Risks
Current Process

¾…so we are told:

Create Identify Qualify Quantify


WBS Risks Risks Risks
Current Process

¾…so we are told:

Create Identify Qualify Quantify


WBS Risks Risks Risks

Pick
Strategy
Current Process

¾…so we are told:

Create Identify Qualify Quantify


WBS Risks Risks Risks

Residual Pick
Risks Strategy
What Really Happens

PM
Creates
Plan

Create Identify Qualify Quantify


WBS Risks Risks Risks

Residual Pick
Risks Strategy
What Really Happens

PM PM
Creates Identifies
Plan Risks

Create Identify Qualify Quantify


WBS Risks Risks Risks

Residual Pick
Risks Strategy
What Really Happens

PM PM
Creates Identifies PM Fills Out Spreadsheet
p
Plan Risks

Create Identify Qualify Quantify


WBS Risks Risks Risks

Residual Pick
Risks Strategy
What Really Happens

PM PM
Start
Creates Identifies PM Fills Out Spreadsheet
p
P j t
Project
Plan Risks

Create Identify Qualify Quantify


WBS Risks Risks Risks

Residual Pick
Risks Strategy
Why Risk Assessments Fail

¾End up with an ambiguous answer:


} This project has a risk level of “medium”
} Your risk assessment score is 4.87

¾Thanks….but now what?


Two Constraining Laws

¾Parkinson’s Law
} Work will naturally fill the timeframe allotted.

¾Murphy’s Law
} Anything that can go wrong will.
Our Dilemmas

¾How to capture risk when our team /


sponsor / management does not believe in
risk or will not attend risk meetings.
¾How do we account for risk without
allowingg Parkinson’s Law.
¾How can I use a risk assessment to help
drive the contingency that I need?
¾How can I create a risk assessment that
means something?
Simple Approach

¾Set up your Microsoft Project Plan using


best practices (i.e. no manually typed
dates, everything linked, etc.)
¾Save a copy and “break” your plan.
¾Figure out if you can recover the plan
plan. If
so, what kind of lead time do you need?
¾If not
not, deal with the risk now!
More Involved Approach

¾ Correlate risk score to time and cost


guidelines
¾ Utilize real incidents and lessons learned to
baseline risk
¾ Create a repository of items to avoid
repeatable issues
¾ Create
C t a system t that
th t updates
d t reall time
ti as
new risks are identified or old risks that are
nullified
¾ Approach begins with general risks,
p
then over time, moves to specific risks
Start General
Second Step

¾How to Capture Real Risk


} Create a real project plan:
ƒ No manually entered dates
ƒ Everything has a predecessor
ƒ Baseline, Baseline, Baseline
Second Step

¾Track variances
Third Step

¾Gather real variances and categorize


them.
} Use actual risks and actual impacts
} Using historical information, correlation can
be made between risk and cost/time impacts
} Instead of a “general” feeling when sales or a
customer inquires about the amount of risk,
th answer could
the ld b
be, “I
“In project
j t A with
ith
product B, an overrun occurred due to …”
Fourth Step

¾Create new risk assessment utilizing


actual risks and actual impacts. Utilize
actual variances to determine impacts.
The New Report
The Process
Categories /
Question weights
reviewed
periodically and
updated PM Completes
Risk Assessment Tool

PMO works on the


Information is PM assesses
highest risk % Periodic reviews
updated in the probability and
categories for conducted by PM
Risk Assessment impact of each risk
mitigation staff
tool
too
strategies
t t i

I
Impacts
t off risks
i k At the completion Tool establishes
compared against of the project, the amount of risk by
baseline and PM fills out Risk utilizing formula
adjusted if Identification Form listed below
necessary
PMO Receives
Risk Identification Form

Current risks are


evaluated and Risk is added to
updated, new risks the project
added if necessary

Formula: ((Best Case Actual Risk) + (4 * Most Likely Actual Risk) + (Worse Case Actual Risk)/6) * Probability * Impact * Question Weight Percentage * Category Weight Percentage
Remember the 2 Laws?

¾How do you plan for risk, put it in your


project plan, but not give it away to your
team?
Questions?

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