GeoJournal 51: 145156, 2000. 2001 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Printed in the Netherlands.

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Electoral geography and the social construction of space: The example of the Nazi party in Baden, 19241932
Colin Flint
Department of Geography, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, U.S.A. (e-mail: int@geog.psu.edu)
Received 31 August 2000; accepted 5 April 2001

Key words: electoral geography, Nazi party, social theory, spatial statistics

Abstract This paper makes two contributions towards making a theoretically driven electoral geography a vital component of geography. First, a theoretical framework for the empirical analysis of elections is proposed that views elections as one component of the social construction of space while simultaneously illustrating how space structures electoral behavior. Second, the concepts of a geographic theory of voter mobilization need to be operationalized in such a way that space is an integral component of statistical analysis. The statistical concepts of spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity are used to include electoral locales and the regionalization of voter mobilization in the analysis. The theoretical framework and statistical operationalization proposed are illustrated by a statistical analysis of the growth of the Nazi party vote in Baden between 1924 and 1932.

Introduction The purpose of this paper is to provide a framework for an electoral geography that is driven by the propositions of theory informing the social construction of space. Such a social constructivist position posits that places and spaces are created by activity and decisions in the spheres of capital, the state, and civil society (Staeheli et al., 1997, p. xxix). The intention is to position electoral geography as a key component of the sub-discipline of political geography by promoting its ability to test quantitatively and, therefore, develop and improve theoretic conceptions of geography. The traditional quantitative focus of electoral geography allows it to both illuminate and test social constructivist claims. Electoral geographys analytical approach can be a powerful tool in furthering constructivist conceptions of political and spatial dynamics. To do so, electoral geography must become theory-driven rather than data-driven. The rst argument of this paper is that quantitative electoral geography and theories of the social construction of space should engage each other to their mutual advantage. Since Agnews (1987) seminal work Place and Politics, the notion that there is a recursive and mutually constituting relationship between political acts and the social construction of space has become axiomatic in geography and related disciplines. Nevertheless, the connection between the political and the social-spatial has not been fully engaged by electoral geographers (Agnew, 1996a). An explanation for the weak link between theoretic notions of place and the political acts studied by electoral geographers is that Agnew (1987) did not provide a means for operationalizing his framework to facilitate statistical analysis that would explic-

itly test his theory. This is not meant to say that Agnews (1987) notion of place is immeasurable or incompatible with more formal forms of statistical and methodological analysis. Rather, the linkages between theory and the possibilities of such analysis were not made explicit. Thus, the second argument made by this paper is that the key to creating a productive relationship between quantitative electoral geography and social constructivist theory lies in the careful and precise operationalization of theoretic concepts and their analysis by appropriate techniques. Electoral geography has developed around the axiom that place matters. However, a common understanding of what this actually means has not been embraced by geographers, and is also very different from the place-specic behavior identied by political scientists. Agnew (1987, 1996a) has argued that geography is an integral component of political behavior, that politics are structured by the uniqueness of places and are one feature that creates places. For Agnew (1996b), some geographic approaches, notably the neighborhood effect, promote an epiphenomenal notion of electoral geography that assumes a national norm somehow disrupted by local peculiarities. Thus, the local networks of conversation and social norms investigated by political scientists are locally important but could, in effect, be happening anywhere. Such an approach is also reected amongst non-geographers studying social movements who take either a rational choice or institutional approach to locate individual actors within political systems and economic experiences that are placeless (Marx and McAdam, 1994; McAdam et al., 1996; Tarrow, 1994). On the other hand, geographers are more concerned about the historic development of particular places and how the ensuing economic,

146 institutional and social components of a place structure political action (Agnew, 1987; Grifths and Johnston, 1991; Johnston, 1991; Savage, 1987). For example, networks of local voter communication are place-specic depending upon the interpretation of local economic conditions (Johnston et al., 2000) and political parties vary their nancial support for candidates depending upon place-specic political competition (Denver and Hands, 1997; Forrest et al., 1999). The distinction between geographic and non-geographic approaches to political behavior is that geographers believe places structure or partially determine political opportunities (Dodgshon, 1998; Sack, 1997). Or, in other words, that politics and place are related social processes rather than place being a local effect that needs to be added into the explanatory mix (King, 1996). To further this geographic argument, electoral geographers require a theoretical template that can be used to design and explain their research to illustrate the recursive relationship between place and politics. My intention is to illustrate one way in which particular elements of social constructivist theory can be tested using a particular statistical technique. This paper is not intended to be a fundamentalist call for a narrowly-dened perspective and methodology (see Archer and Shelley, 1986; Johnston, 1991; Jones et al., 1992 for examples of other approaches). Building upon Flint (1998a), this paper is a theoretical and methodological explanation of how the social construction of space can be utilized by electoral geographers. After an outline of a social theoretic perspective on electoral geography and a discussion of how this perspective can be operationalized to facilitate statistical analysis, the nal section of the paper will illustrate the interaction between theory and spatial statistics through an analysis of the growth of the Nazi party vote in Baden between 1924 and 1932. Social behavior within a particular place is a function of how the immediate social setting interacts with social relations distanced in time and space (Giddens, 1984). With regard to electoral geography, such system integration (Giddens, 1984) gives meaning to voting behavior by reference to power relationships and ideals which have bound the system together in the past. Ideologies are packages of historical myths, traditions, and future options which inuence the trajectory of a system by reference to the past. Ideology is a pervasive feature in the construction of both locales and predispositions. Individuals require ideology to guide and justify their actions. In addition, ideology provides the raison detre for the institutions which enable and constrain individual activity. Ideology is, therefore, the cement that binds locales and the lubricant which facilitates political change. The pervasive inuence of ideology on electoral behavior is transmitted to the voter within institutional settings. The individual voter receives and interprets information within a number of institutions, either formal or informal and operating at a variety of geographic scales. Similar to Coxs (1969) denition of information nodes, institutions receive, interpret, pervert, lter, and transmit information. A list of relevant institutions is not plausible as key institutions will alter with spatial setting and temporal context. Electoral geography is particularly interested in analyzing the growth and role of party institutions within the context of a geography of other institutions (Denver and Hands, 1997). A social constructivist electoral geography engages the role of individuals in creating party strength within a context of institutionalized knowledge. In turn, the fortunes of political parties requires the competitive construction of spaces of political power which, in a recursive fashion, will redene the contextual setting of key institutions. The third component of Preds denition is knowledge. Electoral geographers are concerned about how institutions in spatial settings lter knowledge so that voters act upon distorted and partial information. Knowledge is structured by a variety of competing and overlapping institutions. Electoral geography must not restrict its focus to explicitly political institutions, the political parties or union organizations. In addition, institutions which are political in nature even if they do not compete in the electoral arena for example, the church, or the variety of interest groups and organizations play an explicit role in the ltering and interpretation of knowledge. The voters spatial setting is completed by the operation of institutions which bring people together for, apparently non-political activities, such as drinking and dancing, but imbue a particular political ambience (Billig, 1995). Both ideology and knowledge of events that have an impact upon the voter are ltered through institutions so that they become local knowledge, information that is imbued with particular meaning and warrants particular action because of the imperatives and traditions of spatial settings (Gregory, 1994, p. 120). Armed with such local knowledge, people may exercise their voting options in a way which will redene their spatial setting.

A social constructivist electoral geography Agnews (1996a) call for a theoretically informed electoral geography demands concentration upon the historicalgeographical context of electoral behavior. In other words, voting occurs in a spatial setting dened by historical processes and linkages to other places. The theoretical roots of Agnews perspective are found within the body of knowledge which treats place as a historically contingent process (Pred, 1984), meaning that place is continually made by human agents whose actions are simultaneously structured by the places in which they live. Following Preds (1990) perspective, context is the togetherness of people within places structured by particular institutions and the power relations that they serve. This is inherently political since the structural nature of place leads to the articulation of particular questions and the framing of viable responses. One outlet of these responses may be electoral behavior. By unpacking Preds denition of place, four key inuences upon electoral behavior can be distinguished; knowledge, institutions, ideology and predisposition. The relationship between these inuences is, of course, recursive.

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Figure 1. Thrifts Elements of Conict in Context. Figure 2. Electoral Geography as Conict in Context.

The fourth component of Preds denition of context, predisposition, combines the inuence of ideology, institutions, and knowledge with the outcomes of political actions. Gregory (1994, p. 407) notes that in French disposition means both predisposition and the results of an organizing action. The predisposition component of this denition is synonymous with local knowledge - a product of institutionalized information processing within an ideological context. By highlighting the recursive interaction between individual action and spatial setting, Gregory supports Preds view that context constantly becomes while suggesting that individual outlooks and goals are dynamic too. Knowledge, institutions, ideology, predisposition, voters and space are all formed by political parties in a recursive relationship. Political parties are one set of the institutions and institutionally embedded power relations (Pred, 1990, p. 119) integral to Preds denition of context. Political parties manage ideology and knowledge to mold voter predisposition - in the one sense - while being the continually changing outcomes of organizing action in the other sense of the word. Electoral geography can play a key role in the analysis of the social construction of space by simultaneously analyzing the dynamics of voting preferences and political spaces. Modeling techniques which incorporate electoral and spatial dynamics, changing electorates and their spatial expression, can provide a new concept of mapping (Agnew, 1996a, p. 131) which informs the duality of structure and agency. Nigel Thrifts (1983) theory of social action in space provides a framework for linking ideology, institutions, and knowledge to political action. Thrift diagramed a triangular relationship between three components of social action which structured the possibilities and capacities of social groups to produce political change (Figure 1). Two of the nodes of the triangle reect key aspects of Preds context; knowledge and personality formation represent knowledge and predisposition, respectively. The third node of sociability/communality represents the networks through which knowledge is channeled and ideology is assimilated to develop personality. Ideology plays a role in the structuring of the nodes. It partially determines the content of available knowledge, and the histories and potentials of ideological myths restrict and foster personality formation. Though

treated separately to illustrate the model, each of these components are related in a recursive fashion. In conjunction, personality formation, sociability, and knowledge act to determine the capacity for conict. Thus, the model is applicable for the study of a variety of political activities and the social construction of space. One such adaptation is to the study of electoral geography (Figure 2). In such a social constructivist framework for electoral geography, the source and content of knowledge is interpreted as party political agendas and manifestoes. Personality formation is interpreted as voter mobilization and sociability/communality are interpreted as the creation of electoral locales. In combination these elements structure the ability for regime change or electoral realignment, particular capacities for conict. As in the general model, ideology pervades throughout. Electoral locales and personality formation would include the activity of, and membership in, non-party political movements and organizations. The node of the triangle representing personality formation or voter mobilization requires an understanding of the voter as a product of social interaction rather than an atomized and rational decision maker. The development of voting intentions is one result of socialization within an environment of both dominant messages and resistance toward them. Voting behavior is an individual decision structured by prevalent institutionalized messages and criticisms. The electoral geographer analyzes the responses of voters. Such responses, or changes in voting behavior, can be measured quantitatively to capture variation across spatial settings. Interpretation and narrative analysis can then link such dynamics to the context of dominant and resistant messages. The availability of knowledge, or the role of political parties, plays a key role in the formation of voting intentions. A social constructivist framework would consider the recursive interaction between changes in the world-economy and the state and the responses of the competing parties, as well as the changing opinion of voters. The changing message being sent by the party is received by the voter in a dynamic locale. Thrift points out that it is both the availability and penetration of knowledge that is important. Political parties play a key role in setting a political agenda which highlights

148 some issues while hiding others. Therefore, some political acts remain hidden or undiscussed while other remain distorted by political parties (Thrift, 1983). Furthermore, the political questions and resolutions presented to the electorate are distorted. The messages presented by the parties are then interpreted using the knowledge offered by the locales institutions. It is conceivable that some messages in some locales will remain not understood by the electorate because they lie outside the frame of meaning of the locale (Thrift, 1983). More commonly, the political message will be interpreted within a locale specic frame of reference, producing different levels and bases of support in different locales (Corty and Eagles, 1998; Johnston and Pattie, 1998). The recursive nature of the process is noted given that political parties must adapt to reect their constituencies (Beck, 1974). The third corner of the triangle represents the processes of sociability and community, or the organization of institutions within a locale which produce a sense of place (Thrift, 1983, p. 47). Locales are constituted by day-to-day patterns of communication and interactions which offer particular norms, practices, beliefs, traditions and meanings. Established political parties will imbue their message with such routines. New political parties will contest the hegemony of the locale by championing and promoting alternative practices and visions. The combination of political and social institutions (both formal and informal) within a locale will align at particular times to produce a spatial setting which is an opportunity for electoral change through the ballot box. In conjunction, the processes represented by the three corners of the triangle combine to produce the capacity for conict, or the possibility of electoral realignment or regime change through the creation of spaces of power. The quantitative analysis of changes in the size, geographic distribution, and social composition of the vote illustrates the capacity for political parties to reorganize or even challenge political regimes. The ability to challenge the political structure of the state is dependent upon the mobilization of voters in a combination of locales, nullifying the criticism that electoral geography ignores the political implications of electoral outcomes (Reynolds, 1993, p. 398). The ultimate process that electoral geographies can inform is the means by which political change at the state scale is either initiated or prevented, and thereby informing the questions of who controls the state, what is the form or raison detre of the state, and will established states be maintained and proposed states succeed? After outlining the framework for an electoral geography informed by social theory, the next task is to describe how it can be operationalized to facilitate quantitative analysis. More specically, the purpose of the theory is to show how electoral behavior is structured by space. Therefore, the theory must be operationalized in a way that allows for the simultaneous analysis of electoral choices and the structuring of space. Operationalizing electoral behavior and the social construction of space Appropriate statistical techniques are needed to implement an electoral geography informed by a theory of the social construction of space. Following Cox (1969), operationalization is essential in insuring that subsequent statistical analysis informs the theoretical framework while remaining operational within the constraints of accuracy and economy characteristic of most research situations (Cox, 1969, p. 96). The remainder of this section will outline the means of translating the model into statistical analysis. From the triangular framework developed from Thrifts (1983) argument (Figure 2), two key concepts need to be operationalized. The regionalization of voter mobilization, or regionally-specic forms of political behavior, may be operationalized through the statistical concept of spatial heterogeneity. The creation of electoral locales may be operationalized through the statistical concept of spatial dependence. Spatial heterogeneity refers to instability in the relationships between variables across space. For example, a positive and signicant relationship existed between the size of the Nazi party vote and manual employment in northern Germany while no such relationship was found in the southern region of the country (Flint, 1998a). The regional pattern in the sign and signicance of variables within a data-set are called spatial regimes (Anselin, 1992) and illustrate the regional differentiation in voter mobilization across spatial settings. Spatial heterogeneity in the data-set is an empirical illustration of spatial settings structuring political behavior in such a way that different coalitions of voters will be mobilized by the same party in different regions (Flint, 1998a). The spatial settings, which create spatial regimes of political behavior, may be approached through the concept of spatial dependence. Spatial dependence exists when the value of the dependent variable in one spatial unit of analysis is partially the function of the same variable in neighboring units. In other words, the size of the Nazi party vote in one county is not only a function of the socio-economic characteristics of that county but also partially a function of the size of the Nazi party vote in the surrounding counties. Spatial dependence illustrates Galtons problem, or that certain traits in an area are often caused not by the same factors operating independently in each area but by diffusion processes (OLoughlin and Anselin, 1992, p. 17). The presence of spatial dependence illustrates the diffusion of political party institutions across space which, in turn, create the spatial settings that structure spatial regimes of voter mobilization (Allen, 1965; Flint, 1998b). Spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity explicitly operationalize key political processes implicated in the social construction of space (Figure 2). The inclusion of spatial dependence in the analysis models the construction of institutionalized networks that created electoral locales. Reference to local historical studies triangulates (Creswell, 1998, p. 202) the empirical ndings by providing archival

149 evidence of the nature of the human agency that created spaces of power. The inclusion of spatial heterogeneity in the analysis models the spatial regimes of voter mobilization, or the electoral manifestation of the ways in which spatial settings structured political behavior. Inherent in the interaction between the construction of electoral locales and, at a higher geographic scale, spatial regimes, is the imperative for political parties to compete for power across space in order to control the ow and content of information within particular places. The operationalization of voter mobilization and electoral locales in quantitative electoral geography requires the inclusion of both spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity in statistical modeling of elections through the adoption of spatial-structural models (Anselin, 1992). When modeling the percentage change in the Nazi party vote between consecutive elections, spatial dependence was included in one of two ways. First, a variable measuring the average Nazi party vote in neighboring counties in the rst of the two consecutive elections, the temporal spatial lag, was included as an explanatory variable1. If diagnostic tests indicated the presence of spatial dependence after the inclusion of the temporal-spatial lag variable it was replaced by the spatially lagged dependent variable - the average of the dependent variable in surrounding counties.2 A positive and signicant value for the temporal-spatial lag indicated that the strength of the Nazi party vote in a particular county was partially a function of previous Nazi party strength in neighboring places. In other words, there was a diffusion of Nazi party support. The spatially lagged dependent variable measures the same diffusion process but, in this case, the speed of the spread was more immediate. Such diffusion can be interpreted as the creation of electoral locales across space as the Nazi party was able to use pockets of support to launch propaganda campaigns that led to a growing presence in neighboring places (Allen, 1965). The Nazi party was creating institutionalized networks that allowed it to spread information more effectively which, in turn, created locales of everyday activity and knowledge in which the Nazi party were a key presence. The construction of electoral locales does not require a process of diffusion. Indeed, the case study of Baden shows that the Nazis created locales by working within places and also by disseminating their message across space. However, a positive and significant spatially-lagged variable is a statistical expression of the increased spatial reach of Nazi party locales. Spatial dependence appears in two forms.3 The substantive form of spatial dependence can be interpreted as a diffusion process and it is incorporated into regression equations by adding the spatially lagged dependent variable (OLoughlin and Anselin, 1992). Formally this may be expressed by the equation y =p W Y + X + where y is a vector of observations on the dependent variable, p is a spatial autoregressive coefcient, W Y is the spatially lagged dependent variable, X is a matrix of explanatory variables, the regression coefcients, and is an error term. In addition to the substantive interpretation of spatial dependence, spatial dependence can also be interpreted as a nuisance that must be controlled for. This form of spatial dependence is called spatial error dependence as it is associated with model specication errors that spill across the spatial units of analysis (OLoughlin and Anselin, 1992). The spatial error model is usually expressed as a spatial autoregressive process in the error term as the usual assumptions of homoskedastic and uncorrelated errors no longer hold which is stated formally as the series of equations y = X + =W +x where the notation is the same as in the previous equation, with W being a spatial lag of the errors, and x a wellbehaved error term with mean of zero and variance matrix of S 2 I (Anselin, 1992). The presence of both the spatial lag and the well-behaved error term creates a problem of simultaneity that requires the use of a maximum likelihood procedure including the estimation of a nonlinear likelihood function (Anselin, 1992).4 The inclusion of spatial dependence through spatial regression analysis enhances the discussion of the diffusion of electoral behavior by including a statistical relationship across cases rather than a mapping of similar characteristics (Dorling et al., 1997). The regression technique accounts for the temporal-spatial process of political behavior in addition to the socio-economic characteristics of a place. Rather than clustering places in terms of their socio-economic composition and looking for similar political traits, the lagged dependent variables show the process of the spread of similar political behavior across neighboring places. Spatial heterogeneity informs regionalization of voter mobilization when regression parameters vary across regional subsets of the data. Such regionalization is expressed as spatial regimes across which signicantly different relations between the explanatory and dependent variables are found. The situation where both intercept and slope terms vary across spatial regimes can be expressed formally as yi = i + Xi ij + yj = j + Xj ij +
i j

for d = 0 for d = 1

where is the intercept, and d refers to a dummy variable used to classify the observations into two spatial regimes. The signicance of the regional differentiation can be tested by a Chow test with a null hypothesis of H0 : i = j and i = j

If this null hypothesis is rejected it implies that the intercept terms and regression coefcients vary signicantly across spatial regimes (Chow, 1960). Both the temporal spatial lags and the spatially lagged dependent variables can be entered into models with spatial regime changes. The inclusion of spatial heterogeneity in the modeling of electoral geography operationalizes the regionalization of voter mobility predicted from the interpretation of Thrifts (1983) schema (Figure 2). The estimation of spatial regimes illustrates the electoral outcome of the way spatial settings

150 structure political behavior at a regional scale. Regionally specic electorates reect the outcome of geographic variation in the distribution and interpretation of knowledge. The actual operationalization of heterogeneity requires a mixture of theoretical insight and statistical analysis. Diagnostic tests indicating the presence of heterogeneity are part of the regression models estimated by the Spacestat software (Anselin, 1992). If heterogeneity is discovered in a regression, spatial regimes are created based upon a theoretically informed understanding of the case study. Estimated spatial regime models also include diagnostic tests for heterogeneity to determine whether the theoretically based spatial regimes have accounted for the instability of the parameters. If heterogeneity remains, then one must return to theory to speculate about the underlying processes that are causing spatial variation in the parameter estimates until all the heterogeneity in the model is accounted for by the theoretically determined spatial regimes. The inclusion of diffusion processes that created electoral locales, by entering either the temporal spatial lag or the spatially lagged dependent variable, models the structuring of political behavior as a recursive process. The spaces that structure political behavior were created by the agency of political parties and other social institutions. The creation of electoral locales socially constructed spaces of political power that structured political choices. Spatial statistical analysis that includes both spatial heterogeneity and dependence models political behavior as both an outcome of spatial settings and a set of processes that partially creates those settings. Electoral locales and Nazi party voter mobilization in Baden, 192419325 The purpose of this section is to use the Nazi party vote in Baden to exemplify the theoretical framework outlined above and its operationalization. A detailed historical account of the Nazi party in Baden is provided by Grill (1983), while a more detailed statistical analysis is offered by Flint (1998b). The addition made by this paper is to display and test a general theoretical framework for electoral geographer applicable to any case study. The construction of space through electoral behavior alluded to in Flint (1998b) is developed and given center stage in this paper through its application to the Nazi partys electoral growth in Baden. The result, in response to Unwins (2000) critique, is a detailed outline and exemplication of what is meant by the social construction of space with regards to electoral geography. Following the work of Allen (1965) and Brustein (1993), the emphasis is upon the way that the Nazi party responded to place-specic institutional circumstances and the trajectory of local modes of production to disseminate their message. Though, the Nazi party attracted a broad base of support at the national scale (Hamilton, 1982), they managed to do so by tailoring their message to local circumstances (Brustein, 1993; Flint, 1998a). At the national scale, the Nazi party decided to use the electoral arena to gain power after the failed Putsch of 1924. In the Reichstag (parliament) elections of December 1924 the Nazi party received only 3% of the national vote, declining to 2.6% in 1928. However, the Reichstag election of 1930 was a major breakthrough for the Nazis as they received 18.3% of the national vote and subsequently increased their support to 37.3% in July 1932 (Hamilton, 1982). The strength of the Nazi partys electoral support provided the basis for Hitlers seizure of power in 1933.6 In Baden, the same trends in electoral support occurred. The social constructivist approach to electoral geography dened above analyzes the simultaneous and entwined processes of forming electorates and creating spaces of power which led to the Nazi partys seizure of power. Three periods of change in the Nazi party vote between consecutive Reichstag elections were modeled using the Spacestat software program (Anselin, 1992). In the rst period of change, May 1924 December 1924, the Nazi party conducted its campaign as part of a loose coalition of right-wing parties. The coalition suffered a loss of electoral support during this period, seeing its support decline from 4.8% to 1.9% in Baden (Grill, 1983). For the second period of electoral change modeled, May 1928 to September 1930, the Nazi partys electoral support increased dramatically from 2.9% to 19.2% (Grill, 1983). The Nazi party consolidated their support during the third period of electoral change, September 1930 to July 1932, by increasing their proportion of the vote to 36.6% (Grill, 1983). The percentage changes in the Nazi party vote between consecutive elections were the dependent variables in the spatial analysis. The explanatory variables were socio-economic measures, plus the temporal spatial lag, and, where appropriate, the spatially lagged dependent variable discussed above.7 The choice of variables and techniques in the models reported were the result of a process of both analysis and diagnostic tests. Initially, step-wise regression analysis using the SPSS software was undertaken to help specify the model. The variables entered into the initial models were chosen on the basis of theoretical frameworks predicting particular relationships as well as the results of previous analysis (OLoughlin et al., 1994). Stepwise regression was used to add additional variables to counter McAllisters (1987) critique that the contexts dened by electoral geographers are merely misspecied models.8 Once a coherent model had been identied by using the SPSS software, the model was tested using Spacestat to identify and incorporate spatial dependence and heterogeneity. It is the nal coherent models that contain signicant explanatory variables, and either include or control for spatial effects, that are reported here. The framework outlined in Figure 2 required the illustration of four related processes. First, historical narratives of the development of the Nazi party in Baden illustrated the dynamic construction and dissemination of knowledge. Second, the inclusion of spatial dependence in the analysis engaged the processes by which the Nazi party created electoral locales. Secondary sources were used to support the ndings of the statistical models (Faris, 1975; Grill, 1983). Third, evidence for the regionalization of voter mobilization

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Table 1. Nazi Party Electorate in Baden, May 1924-December 1924. OBSERVATIONS = 83 R2 = 0.22 South Coeff. 0.45 0.68

Variable Constant W_N245Nazi

North Coeff. Std. Dev. 0.69 0.38 0.10 0.29

Std. Dev. 1.41 0.46

Regression Diagnostics: Multicollinearity Condition Number = 5.47 Test on Normality of Errors Test: DF Kiefer-Salmon 2 VALUE 16.48 PROB 0.000

Test on Structural Instability for 2 Regimes Dened by North and South Test: DF VALUE PROB Chow-White 2 5.53 0.063 Stability of Individual Coefcients (using adjusted White variance) Test: DF VALUE PROB Constant 1 0.03 0.859 W_N245Nazi 1 0.83 0.363
Statistically Signicant at the 0.01 Level

was found in the heterogeneity of the socio-economic explanatory variables. The nal component of the framework required a brief discussion of how the construction of local networks and regional spaces of power formed the basis for a change of regime at the national scale. The spatial regimes used in the analysis were based upon the historic regional differences in the level and type of Nazi party organization in Baden that are discussed below. Diagnostic statistical tests conrmed that the north-south division accounted for the instability of the parameters across the whole of the region. In the initial period of change (Table 1), the only signicant variable was the temporal spatial lag, the average of the Nazi party vote in May 1924 in neighboring counties. Heterogeneity also existed in this model as the temporal spatial lag was negative and signicant in the north of the region but insignicant in the south. The Nazi party was unable to diffuse its support across space in this period. In the north of Baden (Figure 3), Nazi party support was localized in isolated pockets with no capacity to expand these electoral locales (Grill, 1983, p. 96). The Nazis could not initiate the spread of electoral locales in which its message and activity were a part of everyday life. The limited ability of the Nazi party to create spaces of power is not surprising at this time. Police activity in 1923 and 1924 had crushed any attempts by the Nazi party to establish local organizations, though some individuals remained active (Grill, 1983, p. 95). In May 1924, there was a spatial mismatch in the organization and appeal of the party. Though the party in Baden was organized by professionals in the south of the state, the strongest electoral appeal was to be found in the north where there was a history of right-wing politics (Grill, 1983, p. 101). Thus, the process of creating electoral locales does not necessarily require the diffusion of political organization or message. In other words, the Nazi party was ineffectual in creating new electoral locales but relied upon traditional patterns of

behavior, or social relations laid down in previous periods (Massey, 1994). Before the election of December 1924, the Nazi party in Baden reorganized itself to offer candidates from lower middle class backgrounds in the north of the state. Hence, the negative sign of the temporal spatial lag as only in mediumsized cities in northern Baden. . . , where the vlkisch parties were well organized, did they win substantial votes (Grill, 1983, p. 105/107). At this time, the Nazi party was constructing electoral locales by strengthening its organization within particular places rather than expanding into new places from positions of strength. The institutional networks of the Nazi party were reorganized to build upon proven pockets of support rather than creating new ones. The spaces of Nazi party power were entrenched in the north of Baden at this initial stage as the party targeted locales with political attitudes favorable to their program, rather than being active in constructing new locales of support. At this time, the Nazi party disseminated a form of knowledge intended to resonate with established practices in some electoral locales, rather than diffusing new knowledge to create new practices in new locales. Despite the low level of support for the party at this time, the appeal of the Nazi partys message was broad. No socio-economic variables were signicant, indicating that the appeal of the Nazi message did not resonate with one particular segment of society in particular. The potential of this situation was to be realized subsequently. However, for there to be a signicant capacity for conict, or capacity for regime change, the Nazi party had to broaden its appeal across space while also mobilizing a broad cross-section of the electorate. The second period of electoral change (Table 2) not only illustrates the success that the Nazi party achieved in creating spaces of power, but also how this fragmented their ability to mobilize a broad coalition of voters across the state. The positive value of NAZI30CH, the spatially lagged dependent variable, indicated that the Nazi party was able to expand the spatial extent of its appeal across electoral locales over the whole of the state. The statistical evidence for the Nazis construction of electoral locales was supported by reference to Grills (1983) historical analysis. In April 1925, the Nazi party in Baden was revived under the leadership of Robert Wagner, who established local party organizations throughout the state. The processes of diffusion captured by the spatially lagged dependent variable reect the concerted efforts of the Nazi party to establish themselves in particular places by rening their message to local concerns and traditions while becoming a part of the community by offering concerts, lm shows, talks and other events (Allen, 1965, p. 135). Once established, the Nazi party sent out its members in trucks and on motorcycles and bicycles to spread its message (Allen, 1965). The Nazi party entered electoral locales by vigorously disseminating an ideology that was vague but was coupled to already existing local behavior and norms. The spread of the Nazi partys appeal was facilitated by an emerging agricultural crisis which produced spontaneous

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Figure 3. The Region of Baden within Weimar Germany.

support in rural areas (Grill, 1983). The Nazi party started to speak to farmers in an attempt to lose its image as a party with urban interests, an image which had resulted in its previous limited spatial appeal. The creation of electoral locales was furthered by organizing rural festivals to appeal to rural conservative ideals, while integrating Nazi institutions with established local practices such as not allowing women and girls to participate in Nazi parades (Grill, 1983, p. 147). Thus, the Nazi party was creating electoral locales by adding a political component to the established practices of everyday life. Moreover, the Nazi party was aware that the electoral locales they intended had to resonate with established regionalized practices. Nazi party agency within existing spatial structures was able to create a diffusion of Nazi party support and the creation of electoral locales, but the timing of the success of the partys activity was related to developments in other political parties. The creation of electoral locales in which everyday conventions and practices became imbued with Nazism involved competition with other political parties. Electoral locales are arenas within which political knowledge is provided, sought, and used. In the example of 1920s Baden, the ability of the Nazi party to create knowledge based upon its ideology was enhanced by the perceived inefcacy of its competitors. The conservative DNVP (German

National Peoples party), the Landbund (Agrarian League), the Catholic Center Party and the liberal DDP (German Democratic party) were all tainted, in the eyes of the voters, by their participation in a national coalition government at a time of economic crisis (Grill, 1983, p. 140). Thus the electorate was particularly eager to gain knowledge from a new party outside of the political establishment. In 1928, growing numbers of Landbund members, including some leaders, joined the Nazi party and the DDP established agricultural schools in an attempt to counter the Nazis appeal (Grill, 1983, p. 142). In 1925/26 Nazis from rural areas became more prominent in a campaign aimed at increasing party support in the countryside (Grill, 1983, p. 145). It was the combination of a political context of a demand for new information and the Nazi partys agency in diffusing its message that created new electoral locales within which the partys message resonated. However, as in the previous period of change, a model incorporating spatial regimes was necessary for the period of change 19281930 (Table 2). The Nazi party was expanding the extent of its networks of support, but at this time the creation of new spaces of power produced a fragmented electorate. The entry of the Nazi party into the political scene created a regional differentiation of electoral locales such that particular segments of society were mobilized in

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Table 2. Nazi Party Electorate in Baden, May 1928September 1930. OBSERVATIONS = 83 R2 = 0.61 South Coeff. Std. Dev. 7.12 15.04 0.12 0.05 0.06 0.58 0.07 0.22 7.89 3.05 0.46 0.20 Table 3. Nazi Party Electorate in Baden, September 1930July 1932. OBSERVATIONS = 83 R2 = 0.46 Variable Constant Prot Lambda Coeff. 13.58 0.15 0.44 Std. dev. 1.24 0.02 0.11

Variable Constant Prot Bctrade N309turn Wchealth W_Nazi30ch

North Coeff. Std. Dev. 29.16 12.05 0.04 0.02 0.60 0.26 0.15 0.39 1.86 1.35 0.46 0.20

Regression Diagnostics Test on Structural Instability for 2 Regimes Dened by North and South Test: DF VALUE PROB Chow-Wald 5 12.82 0.025 Stability of Individual Coefcients Test: DF VALUE PROB Constant 1 1.53 0.215 Prot 1 3.74 0.053 Bctrade 1 3.34 0.068 N309turn 1 0.14 0.709 Wchealth 1 2.78 0.096 Statistically Signicant at the 0.01 Level Statistically Signicant at the 0.05 Level

Regression Diagnostics: Diagnostics for Heteroskedasticity, Random Coefcients Test: DF VALUE PROB Breusch-Pagan test 1 0.02 0.901 Spatial B-P test 1 0.02 0.901 Diagnostics for Spatial Dependence Test: DF VALUE PROB Likelihood Ratio Test 1 13.51 0.000 Test on Common Factor Hypothesis Test: DF VALUE PROB Likelihood Ratio Test 1 0.02 0.890 Wald Test 1 0.02 0.888
Statistically signicant at the 0.01 Level

the north and south of Baden. In the north of the state, the model provides evidence that the Nazi party mobilized blue collar workers and previous non-voters. The variable BCTRADE (the percentage of the workforce who were blue collar workers working in the trade and transport sector) measured the proportion of artisans, craftsmen, and skilled workers in a local workforce. The positive relationship between BCTRADE and the change in the Nazi vote was found in the northern part of the state, indicating that the combination of a tradition of right-wing support and lower middle class candidates (Grill, 1983, p. 189) mobilized voters on the cusp of middle class status (Ault and Brustein, 1998) in this particular spatial setting. N309TURN measured the size of electoral turnout in the September 1930 Reichstag election. Its negative value suggested that increased support for the Nazi party in north Baden was gained through the desertion of voters from other parties, rather than previous non-voters. The Nazi party had begun to attract voters from other parties in the Landtag election of 1929 (Faris, 1975). Further support for this conclusion is provided by the fact that the parties on the right and center of the political spectrum lost only a total of 25,000 votes between them (Grill, 1983, p. 190). The nature of voter mobilization was quite different in south Baden. Neither BCTRADE or N309TURN were signicant in this spatial regime. Instead, the variable WCHEALTH (proportion of the workforce who are white collar employees in the health sector) was positive and signicant. In southern Baden, the Nazi party mobilized middle class voters to a greater extent than it did in the north, a reection of the partys reported focus on professionals (Grill, 1983, p. 185). The variable PROT (percentage of the population who were Protestant) was also positive and signicant in southern Baden. The Nazi partys support was weakest in

the Catholic strongholds of southeastern Baden, while also attracting the support of voters in Catholic areas who had not supported the Center party (Grill, 1983, p. 190). In the 1929 Landtag election the Nazi party had also gained the strongest support in Protestant areas (Faris, 1975). Thus class and confessional identity and institutions combined to create spatial settings favorable to the dissemination and resonance of the Nazi partys message in the south of Baden. The period 19281930 illustrates how the Nazi party created electoral locales to disseminate and control information. This social construction of space was achieved by building upon the established practices of social settings within a national context of discontent with traditional political parties. However, though the level of support increased, the Nazi party was unable to mobilize a uniform and broad coalition of voters across Baden. The third period of change, September 1930 July 1932, was the rst model in which spatial regimes were not necessary (Table 3). In other words, the nature of the Nazi partys electorate was homogenous across the state of Baden for the rst time. The construction of party networks and institutions in the previous phase had established a basis for power. The spatial homogeneity in the electorate was facilitated by a switch to rural rallies across the state rather than urban meetings (Grill, 1983, p. 206). The NSDAPs construction of electoral locales had created a statewide space of power which facilitated uniform and broad voter mobilization through a more effective dissemination of knowledge. Only one socio-economic variable was signicant, that measuring confessional identity. No variables measuring social class were signicant, indicating that the Nazi partys appeal was not restricted to a particular segment of society. However, the positive value of the variable PROT provides evidence that spatial settings where the institutions of the

154 Catholic church, and its political afliate the Center Party, were established did not support the Nazis. In combination, the three statistical models presented illustrate the spatial and political processes that allowed the Nazi party to create a large and cross-class electorate in Baden. As an institution, the Nazi party wanted to maximize the spatial reach and political monopoly of its information dissemination. It started from isolated pockets of support and, through organizational efforts, increased the geographic extent of electoral locales inuenced by its message. The creation of such spatial settings was done in a way that utilized traditional localized practices in the formation of new political loyalties and spaces of power. Initially, the creation of electoral locales produced regional differentiation in the type of voter mobilized to support the Nazi party. Eventually the Nazis were able to mobilize a large and uniform electorate within the space of power that they had constructed. These processes were occurring throughout Weimar Germany, but with a distinct geographic pattern to the Nazi partys relative success (OLoughlin et al., 1995). In combination, the regional electorates mobilized by the Nazi party were aggregated to form a national Sammlungsbewegung, or national cross-class political movement, that allowed for the seizure of power and a change in the very form of the state (Flint, 1998a). Referring back to Figure 2, the agency of institutions and individuals created spatial settings which mediated information from political parties. The construction of local spatial settings formed regionally specic mobilizations of Nazi party voters that, in turn, resulted in a capacity for regime change at the national scale. electoral locales within which voters are mobilized. Simultaneously, voter mobilization creates and maintains electoral locales that sustain, or diminish, political parties. Electoral geography analyzes a large number of cases, rather than single case studies, so that the processes of creating places, or electoral locales, and obtaining political control over the space of a whole electoral system are linked. In the case study of Baden, the Nazi partys message resonated originally in just a few locales in the north of the state, but over time voter mobilization and the creation of spaces of power created a capacity for conict or regime change in both Baden and the Third Reich. Such local and regional developments occurred within national and global dynamics that inuenced the problems being faced by the electorate and the solutions being proffered by the parties (Brustein, 1993). Most electoral geographers are placed on the wrong side of a line dened by the persisting divide between a political geography in dialogue with contemporary social theory and a political geography more comfortable with the reassuring nostrums of variants of positivism (OTuathail, 1998, p. 84). I agree with OTuathail that the conceptualization and centrality of electoral geography within the sub-eld are key markers of this divide (OTuathail, 1998, p. 84). However, instead of OTuathails Procrustean divide the combination of empirical observation and social theory allows electoral geography to be a sub-eld that can inform theory. Electoral geographers can inform and illuminate the human enterprise that creates geographies by using the framework proposed by Thrift (1983). The processes involved in the social construction of space are inherently political, involving the control and interpretation of information, the monopolization of spaces by institutions and the mobilization of people towards specic projects and goals. Electoral geography can map the sub-set of processes that utilize the ballot box to create spaces of power and social projects.

Conclusion The two goals of this paper have been illustrated by the Baden case study. First, the social construction of space is an integral component of electoral politics. The Nazi party worked within the constraints and opportunities of existing spatial settings to create new locales of electoral support. In turn, these locales structured political behavior to produce a regionalized pattern of voter mobilization. Over time, the Nazi party created a space of power in which it could disseminate information to mobilize a large and uniform electorate. Second, spatial statistical analysis embeds spatial processes of diffusion and regional differentiation into the modeling of electoral processes. Geography is not an additional variable that needs to be added or controlled for in order to introduce context. Instead, the structuring of political behavior in space and time requires that regionalization and diffusion be integral components of electoral geography analyses. Electoral geography can inform, and be informed by, theories of the social construction of space. From the adaptation of Thrifts (1983) schema (Figure 2), the geography of elections is informed by the construction of local politics as a means of enabling broader political projects. Electoral geography is the geography and politics of the diffusion and acceptance of knowledge via the social construction of

Acknowledgements Thank you to the two reviewers for their helpful comments. Thanks also to Michael Shin for help in constructing the data base and GIS and to Rob Edsall for the artwork.

Notes
1 Throughout this analysis, the spatial weights matrix dened neighboring counties on the basis of rst-order contiguity. 2 Four tests for spatial dependence were conducted. The Morans I statistic to test for autocorrelation in the residuals of the regression model (Anselin and Rey, 1991), the Lagrange Multiplier test for spatial error dependence (Anselin, 1992), the Kelejian-Robinson test for spatial error dependence (Kelejian and Robinson, 1992), and the Lagrange Multiplier test for substantive spatial dependence (Anselin, 1992). These test and their application to electoral geography are discussed in greater detail in OLoughlin, Flint and Anselin (1994). 3 It is difcult to distinguish between substantive spatial dependence and spatial error dependence because of the similarity of the two expressions representing the different forms. The similarity of the two expressions

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produces the common factor hypothesis, that the product of the spatial autoregressive coefcient with the regression coefcients equals the negative of the coefcients of the spatially lagged dependent variables. If the common factor hypothesis holds, then it suggests that the spatial error model is the correct specication. If it does not hold, then it implies that the substantive spatial dependence model is the correct specication. Alternatively, the common factor hypothesis not holding may also indicate specication errors, such as the wrong spatial weights matrix or missing explanatory variables (OLoughlin and Anselin, 1992). 4 Testing for spatial dependence, and its inclusion in the regression equations, is important for methodological as well as theoretical reasons. The presence of substantive spatial dependence results in biased regression coefcients. If spatial error dependence is not controlled for the regression estimates are unbiased but misleading inference can result if the variance estimates are not adjusted (Anselin, 1992). 5 The region of Baden as dened in this analysis, consists of 83 counties in the state of Baden and the Pfalz, a Bavarian administrative district bordering France and north-west Baden. Pfalz was included in the region because of its historical and cultural ties with northern Baden. In 1789, the Pfalz was conquered by Napoleon and its eastern part, including Mannheim and Heidelberg, was given to Baden , to which it is still attached (Dickinson, 1945). 6 For a spatial analysis of the Nazi party vote at the national scale see OLoughlin, Flint and Anselin (1994) and Flint (1998a). 7 The census and election data were taken from the Wahl- und Sozialdaten der Kreise und Gemeinden des Deutschen Reiches, 19201933. The data were disaggregated at a scale of more than 6,000 geographic units, which included counties (Kreise), villages, and neighborhoods in large cities. Socio-economic variables from the 1925 census were used to construct the explanatory variables. To match the census and election variables, the 6,000 geographic units were aggregated into 743 Kreise and towns. For ease these units will be called counties from now on. The data was translated into a GIS with the assistance of Rusty Dodson, Steve Kirin, and David Fogel of the Department of Geography, University of California Santa Barbara, and Michael Shin, Department of Geography, University of Colorado - Boulder. 8 The following variables were included in the stepwise regressions: percentage of the population that were protestant; percentage of the workforce that were manual industrial workers; percentage of the workforce that were blue collar workers in trade and transport; percentage of the workforce that were self-employed; percentage of the workforce unemployed; electoral turnout in the rst of the two elections in each period as percentage of eligible voters; percentage of the workforce employed in clerical jobs in the industrial sector; percentage of the workforce employed as white collar workers in the health sector; and the spatially lagged dependent variables. 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