ISSN 0040 6015, Thermal Engineering, 2012, Vol. 59, No. 11, pp. 807815. Pleiades Publishing, Inc.

., 2012. Original Russian Text V.V. Klimenko, A.V. Klimenko, A.G. Tereshin, D.S. Beznosova, T.N. Andreychenko, 2012, published in Teploenergetika.

Changing Pattern and Amount of the Residential and Commercial Energy Consumption in Response to Economic and Climatic Factors
V. V. Klimenkoa, A. V. Klimenkob, A. G. Tereshina, D. S. Beznosovaa, and T. N. Andreychenkoa
b

Moscow Power Engineering Institute (MPEI), ul. Krasnokazarmennaya 14, Moscow, 111250 Russia All Russian Thermal Engineering Research Institute (VTI), ul. Avtozavodskaya 14/23, Moscow, 109280 Russia

AbstractThis paper presents the results of calculating the amounts and the pattern of energy consumption in the residential and the commercial sectors of the Russia economy under conditions of the present day eco nomic development with due regard for climate change. The analysis of regional specific features and the esti mate of the future energy consumption by the housing and municipal services (HMS) sector for the period until 2050, as well as a comparison with similar indicators found in foreign countries, are given. It has been shown that, as a result of improved living standards, enhanced energy efficiency in the HMS sector, and global warming for the next decades to come, a considerable reduction in the specific energy consumption in this sphere will take place, while the pattern of the energy consumption in it will correspond to the present day situation in Canada. In southern regions of Russia this indicator will approach the values typical for the northern contiguous states of the USA. DOI: 10.1134/S0040601512110080

The housing and municipal services (HMS) sector is the main consumer of energy resources in Russia. For example, in 2007 for provision of the stock of res idential and commercial buildings with thermal and electrical energy, 40% of the total energy resources were consumed (for comparison, the shares of indus try and transport were 33 and 24%, respectively, of agriculture and forestry, less than 3%) [1]. The impact of both present day climate changes and those anticipated in the coming decades on vari ous spheres of human activities has been studied in many scientific works. As for Russia, the majority of researchers anticipate positive changes in the sphere of heat supply [24], agriculture [4], and water transport [4], while the main adverse consequences of global warming on the national economy are associated with degradation and destruction of permafrost [4]. In the field of the energy industry there is predicted substan tial saving of energy resources due to a reduction in the duration of the heating period in Russia and an increase in the average ambient air temperature [2, 3], but in a number of works [4, 5] the likelihood of increasing expenses in the national economy because of the necessity for additional air conditioning in buildings caused by an increase in the air temperatures is being given much attention in the USA [6], where air conditioning systems (ACS) account for about 16% of the total electric power consumption by house holds, in Europe (about 6%), and in other countries [7]. For Russia, only isolated estimates of the electric power consumption for air conditioning [810] and very approximate estimated forecasts of their dynam ics under conditions of possible climate change [11] have been published. In monograph [12] the issues of

taking account of meteorological factors only at short term prediction of heating and electric loads are dis cussed. Recent investigation into the dependence of the electric power consumption for air conditioning in the residential sector of Moscow on the ambient air temperature [13] may be thought of as one of the very first special works in this field. In this paper calculations of the amounts and the pattern of power consumption in the residential and commercial sectors of the Russian economy under conditions of the present day economic growth and observed climate change, the results of the analysis of regional special features, and an estimate of the future power consumption in the HMS sector for the period until 2050, as well as the comparison with indicators found in foreign countries, are given. Thermal Energy Consumption In the national statistics only data related to district heating in the HMS sector are given. The assessment of energy consumption for individual space heating and hot water supply in the residential sector has been made in [1416] on the basis of the data concerning the consumption of various types of fuel by the popu lation. In the present work demand for thermal energy used by both district heating systems and autonomous consumers has been assessed according to the data related to the floor space of the housing stock covered by district heating systems [17], and to the specific consumption of thermal energy for space heating and

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Table 1. The stages of introduction of standards for specific consumption of thermal energy by a system of heat supply of residential buildings in the Russian Federation [23] Stage Stage 1before 1986 Stage II from 07/01/1986 Stage III from 01/01/2000 Stage IV from 10/01/2003 Class of buildingsx Buildings supplied with heat according to SNiP II 3 79 [24] Buildings supplied with heat according to the first stage of introduc tion of standards (SNiP II 3 79* [25] and MGSN 2.01 94 [26]) Buildings supplied with heat according to the second stage of intro duction of standards (SNiP II 3 79* and MGSN 2.01 99 [27] Present day buildings (SNiP 23 02 2003 [28]) Specific power consumption, (W h)/(m2 deg day) 150100 9560 7550 2520

hot water supply [18, 19] with due regard for real cli matic conditions in the years 19902010 [20]. In order to estimate the amounts of heat consumed for space heating, ventilation, and air conditioning in commercial buildings, an approach suggested in [21] was implemented; in doing so, the values of the floor space in those buildings were adjusted with due regard for the extent of placing structures used for various purposes in service in regions of Russia [22]. Adoption of present day requirements on materials of which building envelopes should be made, heat insulation of pipelines, compulsory installation of water meters, heat meters, as well as other meters, when placing newly constructed residential and com mercial buildings into service, has already exerted appreciable influence on the results of calculating the heat consumption. To evaluate the corresponding decrease in the specific heat consumption, the coeffi cient of the energy efficiency of the HMS sector Cee, HMS is introduced, which is calculated only from the degree of rehabilitation of the housing stock: the change in the share of dilapidated and unsafe dwellings with a high level of heat consumption, and placing in service new dwellings constructed with adherence to the present day requirements on the energy efficiency of buildings. The coefficient of the energy efficiency of the HMS sector is calculated on the basis of data related to the structure of the housing stock, such as the floor area of dilapidated and newly constructed dwellings, as well as the total floor area of the housing stock [17, 22]:

C eei = [( S hs i S dil i S nci ) C ee,HMSi 1 + S dil i kC ee,HMSi 1 + S nci mi ] S hs i ,

(1)

dwelling space as of the beginning of the year 1990 (k is taken to be equal to 1.5); mi is the coefficient that demonstrates to what extent the specific normative heat consumption in buildings that are placed in service in the ith year is lower as compared to that in buildings which were placed in service before the year 1990. The value of the coefficient mi changes stepwise with time, or, more exactly, by time intervals during which the normative documentation related to the specific heat consumption in buildings has been in force (Table 1). In the 1995 edition of the Federal Building Code II 3 79* [25] two stages of introduc tion of new normative requirements on thermal pro tection of buildingsfrom 1995 and from 2000 were established. Indicators for the year 2000 corre sponded to the level of requirements existing in such countries as Sweden and Canada [23]. Since 2003 new, even more stringent requirements on thermal protec tion of buildings have been in force [28]. Aggregated estimates of demand for thermal energy needed for the heating of the housing stock and hot water supply of the population of Russia for the period 19992010 are given in Fig. 1. On the whole, they are in accord with calculations made by the authors [1416] on the basis of data about consump tion of centrally supplied thermal energy by the popu lation and various types of fuel. It can be seen that, despite the increase in the housing stock by nearly 30% in Russia (Fig. 2a), the amount of heat consumption over the past 15 years remains virtually the same due to climate change and increased energy efficiency in the residential sector. A similar picture is observed in the commercial sector as well. Electric Power Consumption Today households account for about 12% of the domestic power consumption. This value remained very stable during the 1520 years that followed the period of an increase of this indicator in 19901995 from 7 to 11%, which was caused by a decline in the total power consumption as a result of economic recession (Fig. 3). Estimates [9, 10] show that the share of lighting devices during this period was 22
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where S hs i is the total floor area of the housing stock as of the end of the ith year, m2; S dil i is the floor area of dilapidated and unsafe dwellings as of the end of the ith year, m2; Ceei 1 is the coefficient of the energy effi ciency for the (i 1)th year; k is the coefficient that demonstrates to what extent dilapidated and unsafe dwellings are worse (from the standpoint of energy consumption) by comparison with an average statistic

CHANGING PATTERN AND AMOUNT OF THE RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL

Q/4.18, million GJ 800 1 2 3 4

809

600

400

200

0 1990 1995 2000 Years () 2005 2010

Q/4.18, million GJ 5 6 7

300

200

100

0 1990 1995 2000 Years (b) 2005 2010

Fig. 1. Thermal energy consumption in Russia in 19902010 by the residential (a) and commercial sectors (b). 1, 2centralized space heating and hot water supply; 3, 4decentralized space heating and hot water supply; and 5, 6, 7heating, ventilation, and hot water supply in the commercial sector.

23%, whereas autonomous space heating and residen tial hot water supply accounted for 1416%, and the remaining part of electric energy was consumed by household electric appliances, including electric cookers. The author of [10], basing himself on the data of sample surveys made by Rosstat (Federal Service of State Statistics) and concerning the availability of durable goods in households, estimates the share of air conditioning systems at 1.5% in 2008. The more detailed survey carried out by the authors of the present work [13] favors even more conservative esti mates on the national scale. However, as the living standards improve (dynamics of their main indica
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torgross domestic product (GDP)is illustrated in Fig. 2b) and the temperature characteristic of the warm seasonthe number of cooling degree days (CDD)changes (Fig. 2d), further implementation of air conditioning systems and associated growth in electric power consumption are to be expected. For economically developed regions located in the south ern and central parts of Russia, contribution of air conditioning systems to the electric power consump tion in the residential and commercial sectors may be as high as several percent. On the whole, the compo nent of the household electric power consumption that depends on climate (electrical heating of the liv

810
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2000 GDP, billion US dollars 1500

()

500 HDD, deg days 4500

(b) 1

3500 DD, deg days 400 200 0 ee 0.95 0.85 1990

(c) 1

(d)

1995

2000 Years (e)

2005

2010

Fig. 2. Dynamics of economic and natural environmental factors determining the energy consumption. (a) the floor area of the housing stock Shs; (b) gross national product calculated with due regard for purchasing power parity; (c, d) heating degree days and cooling degree days, respec tively, weight averaged over the floor area of the housing stock (1averaged data); and (e) the coefficient of the energy efficiency Cee.

ing space and the use of air conditioning systems) is within the limits of 15% of its total amount. The electric power consumption in the commercial sector during the last decade has been at the level of 115 billion (kW h)/yr. Its share, determined by cli matic conditions, is also less than 10% and is virtually fully due to self contained systems of space heating and air heating in ventilation systems. The share of air conditioning systems in electric power consumption in the commercial sector, averaged over the country, now does not exceed 1%. Regional Special Features of Energy Consumption Figure 4 shows the pattern of energy consumption in the residential sector per unit of the total floor area of the housing stock for regions of Russia located under various climatic conditions (south, center, and

north of the European part of the country, Volga Region, Siberia, and the Far East). Besides, data are given for Moscow as a megapolis with a high level of development, Russia as a whole, Canada, and the USA as a whole and two states (New York and Califor nia.) Climatic characteristics of regions are given in Table 2. By the present day level of energy consumption per unit of living space, only the Krasnodar krai is at the same level with Canadathe country that is most close to Russia in its size and natural conditions. It can be seen that in all regions of Russia listed in Table 2 the share of space heating in the energy consumption by households is no less than one half of the total amount of the energy consumption (even in the Krasnodar krai, the southernmost of all federal subjects listed here, 55% of all energy is consumed for space heat ing), while in the regions with severe natural condi tions this indicator exceeds 70%. By the present day level of energy consumption for space heating, even in the southern regions of our country (560 MJ/m2 in the Krasnodar krai) indicators are appreciably higher than those not only in the northern states of the contiguous USA (400 MJ/m2 in New York), but also in Canada (460 MJ/m2), while space heating systems in the remaining regions of Russia consume 23 times more thermal energy. The energy consumption for hot water supply exceeds even the very high level in Canada as well. These data point to the fact that the energy use in the HMS sector of Russia is utterly inefficient. The analysis of the pattern of energy consumption in the residential sector (electric power consumption by lighting devices, household electric appliances, and air conditioning systems) also reveals the significant differences between Russia and foreign countries. While the specific total power consumption in a Rus sian household is not less than that in American households (100200 MJ/m2), the electric power consumption in the residential sector is characterized by a lower level of electricity consumption for lighting and a virtually utter absence of the power consumption for air conditioning in living rooms. Climate Change on the Territory of Russia and Its Effect on Energy Consumption By now, climate change observed on the territory of Russia already has had an appreciable effect on the energy industry. Thus, a rise in winter and spring air temperatures occurring virtually everywhere has resulted in shortening of the heating period and a rise in the average winter and spring temperatures in all regions of the country, which has caused over the last 20 years considerable reduction (by about 7%) of the specific load on space heating systems [3] during the cold period of the year (see Fig. 2c). Combined with the redistribution of the housing stock (the outflow of the population from the northern and eastern regions, more intense development of central and southern
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CHANGING PATTERN AND AMOUNT OF THE RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL

N, TW h 1 3 120 5 2 4

811

80

40

0 1990 1995 2000 Years () N, TW h 6 120 7 8 9 10 2005 2010

80

40

0 1990 1995 2000 Years (b) 2005 2010

Fig. 3. Electric power consumption in Russia in 19902010 by the residential (a) and commercial (b) sectors. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5light ing, heating, hot water supply, household electrical appliances, air conditioning systems, respectively (residential sector); and 6, 7, 8, 9, 10lighting, heating, ventilation, air conditioning systems, other (commercial sector).

regions of Russia) this has resulted in a reduced heat consumption which, according to the estimate made by the authors of the present paper for the years 1990 2010 from the change in the number of heating degree days (HDD) weight averaged over the floor area of the housing stock, was about 10%. At the same time, as air conditioning systems are more and more widely used, in some regions, the elec tric power consumption in summer months increased markedly, which was facilitated by an increase in the
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number of cooling degree days (CDD) (see Fig. 2d.) For example, in the power system of the Kuban area, according to data published by the Statistical Depart ment of the Unified Energy System of Russia, in summer 2010, for the first time in the history of the domestic power industry, the annual peak load was achieved. The development of global climatic processes in the coming decades, in the opinion of most experts [3, 4], will result in even more considerable climate

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1200

800

400

0 I State of New York Moscow Russia Republic of Tatarstan Archangelsk oblast Krasnodar krai Primorskii krai California Irkutsk oblast Moscow oblast USA II Canada

Fig. 4. Specific final energy consumption in the residential sector. For Russia: left hand columnspresent day estimates for the year 2008 according to [10, 12, 14] and data published by Rosstat; right hand columnsestimate of this paper for the year 2030; I, IIpresent day data published by the US Department of Energy [29] and the Ministry of Natural Resources of Canada [30]; 1heating; 2air conditioning systems; 3hot water supply; 4lighting; and 5household electrical appliances.

change in Russia. In particular, calculations made by the authors of the present paper [2, 3] show that toward the year 2050 the number of HDDs in the larg est part of the territory of this country will decrease by another by 500800 degree days, while in Siberia and

the Far East, by another 7001200 degree days (Fig. 5, see the color insert.) The results of model simulations testify to the fact that the changes in the climatic characteristics of a warm season of a year will not be so great (Fig. 6, see

Table 2. Key climatic characteristics observed over the last 10 years and indicators of the living standards per capita in 2010 [17, 20, 22, 2831] Region Krasnodar krai Archangelsk oblast Primorskii krai Moscow oblast Irkutsk oblast Moscow* Republic of Tatarstan Russia USA State of New York California Canada tyear, C 11.3 2.0 5.1 6.2 1.0 7.1 5.3 5.1 11.5 7.4 15.2 5.4 DDHP 1950 5225 4175 3870 5910 3680 4480 4180 Heating Cooling s, m2 per degree days degree days capita 2140 5910 4750 4360 6130 4140 4835 5235 2160 3400 1460 4490 587 71 118 160 98 218 217 200 880 345 500 170 21 24 20 28 20 20 22 22 72 65 53 50 epop, (kW h)/capita 759 680 1207 1186 1134 899 746 853 3550 2000 2300 4800 GDP (GRP), dollars/capita 8660 12931 8811 13840 10013 29483 13473 16000 47155 39030

* For Moscow the effect of the city island of heat (a rise in the air temperature in the central parts of a city as compared to its periphery) is taken into account; tyraverage annual temperature; DDHPdegree days of the heating period; epopspecific energy consump tion per capita; GRPgross regional product. THERMAL ENGINEERING Vol. 59 No. 11 2012

CHANGING PATTERN AND AMOUNT OF THE RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL

30 40 85 170 160 50 150 60 70 80 90 100 110 759000
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Samara

Khanty Mansiysk Yekaterinburg

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Kaliningrad
s ru

UKRA INE

Be

la

Astrakhan Makhachkhala

Fig. 5. Heating degree days. (a) Average values for the years 20012010 and (b) changes predicted by the year 2050.

the color insert). In the northern regions they will be minimal (an increase by 1020 degree days toward the year 2050), since hot days occur there only during the summer season, and the summer temperatures are only slightly prone to change [2]. At the same time in the southern regions of Russia, in which days with temperatures above 18C may also occur during the spring season (whose temperatures are strongly affected by climatic factors [2]), an increase in the number of CDDs toward the mid century may be as great as 5070 degree days. On the average, in Russia, an increase in this climatic characteristic will be about 10% of its current values. As a result, the specific energy consumption observed in the residential sector will reduce toward the year 2030 by about 30% against the level in the last
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0 300

Orenburg
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80 > 90 St. Petersburg Arkhangelsk Naryan Mar Smolensk Moscow Syktyvkar Norilsk Salekhard Nizhni Novgorod Urengoy Kazan Perm Khanty Mansiysk Samara Volgograd Yekaterinburg

FIN

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decade and will be about 1000 MJ/m2, still remaining 30% higher than the average current value for Canada, and by a factor of almost 2.5 higher than nowadays in the USA. At the same time an appreciable change in the pattern of energy consumption will occur. For example, the share of space heating will be reduced to 60% (against 65% in 2008), per capita electric power consumption in a household will increase (lighting devices and household electrical appliances will con sume up to 13% of the total amount of electrical energy against 9% in 2008), and the share of hot water supply will remain at the level of 25% of the total energy consumption. Although the electric power consumption by air conditioning systems in residen tial housestock will increase, in Russia as a whole, it will constitute merely tenths of a percent, and only in

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85 170 160 50 150 60 70 100 110 75 120 140 130

Kaliningrad

80 FI100 90 St. Petersburg Arkhangelsk Naryan Mar Smolensk 200 Moscow Syktyvkar Norilsk Salekhard Nizhni Novgorod Urengoy Kazan Perm 400 Khanty Mansiysk Samara; Volgograd Yekaterinburg
ru s

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30 40 50 60 Murmansk ND 70 LA 80 FIN 90 St. Petersburg Arkhangelsk Naryan Mar Smolensk Moscow Syktyvkar Norilsk Salekhard Nizhni Novgorod Urengoy Kazan Perm Khanty Mansiysk Samara Volgograd Yekaterinburg
s la ru

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<25

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Fig. 6. Cooling degree days. (a) Average values for the years 20012010 and (b) changes predicted by the year 2050.

the southern and economically most developed regions of the country (the Krasnodar Krai, the Republic of Tatarstan), will it be as high as 510%. Thus, a combination of economic and climatic fac tors, as well as energy saving in the HMS sector in the next decades to come will result in substantial changes in the pattern and the amount of municipal energy consumption. The growth in living standards, milder natural conditions, as well as ever increasing imple mentation of energy efficient technologies in the HMS sector, will bring about a considerable reduction in the specific energy consumption in both residential and commercial sectors. In this case, the share of energy consumed for space heating and hot water sup ply will be reduced, while the share of electric energy consumption (among other things, for air condition

ing) will increase. Indicators of the energy consump tion in Russia will be comparable to the present day indicators in Canada, while the pattern of the specific energy consumption in the southern regions will cor respond to the present day values for the USA (with the maximum falling in summer months). ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This work has been carried out within the scope of the implementation of the Federal Target Program Human Capital for Science and Education in Inno vative Russia for 20092013 with financial support provided by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grants No. 11 08 01228 and 12 08 00367) and by the Grant provided by the President of the Rus
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