Intermediate SPSS (1) Hypothesis Testing and Inferential Statistics Tutorial Goal: Building and testing hypotheses using

inferential statistics in SPSS. This workshop covers parametric and nonparametric tests, concentrating on correlation, chi-square, and t-tests. Participants learn how to understand, analyze and report results. Ok, lets review somewhat from our last workshop. What is statistics? First, what is statistics? Statistics is the science and practice of developing knowledge through the use of empirical data expressed in quantitative form (http://www.answers.com/topic/statistics-2?method=6). So, you are basically posing a question about something in the Social Sciences and using numbers to answer it. Some examples of these questions are: Do countries with stricter gun control laws have fewer deaths by firearms? What are the best methods for teaching? What factors cause a disease to spread from one place to another? Do religious views and class affect opinions about euthanasia? You can answer these questions by using numbers. For statistics, there are four kinds of levels of measurement for the variable. All your analyses extend from what kind of level your variable is. They are NOIR. (N)ominal (O)rdinal (I)nterval (R)atio Lets talk about each one. Nominal means that the number simply represents a category of objects. There is no measured different among the objects or people. Some examples are giving states numbers (N.Y. 1, Connecticut 2, R.I. 3), assigning a number for gender (male 1, female 2), or designating college major (History 1, Business 2, Sociology 3). You are just assigning a number to something. Ordinal means the larger number for the object is truly larger in some sort of amount. This typically means rank. Some examples are 1st, 2nd, and 3rd places in a contest, or preferences for different movies. However, there is no exactly measured difference among the objects. We dont know definitively how much larger or better 1st is compared to 2nd. We just know 1st is somehow larger than 2nd. Interval means, like Ordinal, that there is a rank for the objects or people, but there is also a measurement for the ranking. Some examples are degrees Celsius or Fahrenheit. We know that the different between 98 and 99 degrees is the difference of the amount of mercury in a thermometer. Also, the difference between 42 and 43 degrees is the same amount between 98 and 99. However, there is no true zero, which stands for a complete lack of the object being measured. 0 degree does not mean there is no mercury, for example. 1

Ratio means, like Interval, that there is a measurement for the ranking, but there is also a true zero. A true zero means that there is lack of the quality being measured. Some examples are income, where the difference between $10,000 and $11,000 is known and zero means complete lack of income. These levels are very important and we will be discussing them more as we go on. Nominal and Ordinal are called Nonparametric Data, and Interval and Ratio are called Parametric Data. The statistical analyses that you can use are dependent on what level your data are. Specifically, if you can make a logical mean using your data, then you can use parametric data. In this tutorial, we are interested in Inferential Statistics. This form of statistics tries to make conclusions about a whole group from one sample from that group. So, we have two important concepts. First, population means the entire group of whatever youre studying. Second, a sample is a subset of the population. If youre trying to do research, studying a whole population is probably out of the question. A sample is easier to obtain and you can use the sample to surmise how the whole population behaves. Of course, it has to be a random sample, which means that anyone or anything from the population has an equal chance of falling into the sample. If not, then you have bias, which means that the sample is not an accurate picture of the whole population. Population

Sample

Ok, now that we understand what a population and sample are, we need to know what probability theory is. Probability Theory is the branch of mathematics that studies the likelihood of occurrence of random events in order to predict the behavior of defined systems (http://www.answers.com/probability+theory&r=67). So, we want to apply the theories of probability on this sample to infer what the whole population does. The best way to understand this is by looking at dice and how they behave. If you rolled one die, what is the chance youd get a five?

1/6 2

If you rolled two dice, what is the chance youd get 2 fives?

1/36 Ok, now look at our sample set, which is all possible outcomes. If you have two dice, the following chart has all the 36 possible outcomes: Result 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 (http://www.edcollins.com/backgammon/diceprob.htm) So, the more chances you have for that outcome, the higher the probability youll have to get that outcome. For example, from all our possible outcomes, the possible outcome of 7 is 1/6, whereas the possible outcome of 2 is only 1/36. A good graphic for this probability is seen at a web site called Introduction to Probability Models. Here you can run a simulation of rolling two dice. The right panel below shows the result of the dice on the X axis and the number of times on the Y axis. The first chart shows the result from rolling two dice ten times. Probability 1/36 2/36 3/36 4/36 5/36 6/36 5/36 4/36 3/36 2/36 1/36

Rolling two dice twenty times.

And finally, rolling two dice one hundred times.

(http://www.math.csusb.edu/faculty/stanton/m262/intro_prob_models/intro_prob_models.html) You can see that the outcomes with more probability, numbers 6, 7, and 8, build up more quickly. You can also see that this builds up as a bell-shaped curve. If its considered a normal distribution, you should see this kind of curve. So, the numbers with more probability are in the middle and those without a high probability are on the extremes. This is what statistics is all about. Its about seeing what number has a high probability of occurring and what doesnt. Subsequently, two important ideas from distribution of outcome are central tendency and variance. Lets explore these essential ideas for a moment.

(Graphic from http://www.maximumiq.com/iq-tests-stats.php) An IQ test is a perfect example of central tendency and variance. Your result on an IQ test is literally the comparison of your result with everybody elses who has taken the test. Millions of people take these tests. Very few people would score low, and there a very few geniuses around who would score high. The majority of us have average IQs. As seen in the graphic above, IQ results, when plotted out, have a normal distribution where the majority of results cluster in the middle and results that are lower and higher are infrequent and lessen the farther away from the center of the results. The central tendency is measured usually by the mean (All cases added and then divided by the number of cases). So, a score of 100 on an IQ is the mean. Its an average intelligence. Remember, the results of the majority of people bunch around 100. Variance is how far the score falls from the mean. If most of the scores cluster around the mean, then there is low variance. It looks like a bell curve, where most of the results are in the middle taking the shape of a bell. If the variance is high, the curve in the middle is not as high and the results are more spread out. So, with statistics, were trying to figure out if our numbers fall near the central tendency, which means that maybe there is nothing unusual about them, or if they fall farther away towards the extremes and are unusual. Remember from our discussion of populations, samples and IQs. The average is 100, so if you take a sample from the population, you should expect an average IQ in that sample to be around 100. However, if the average IQ in that sample turns out to be 130, then statistically your sample is not average. Ok, first, when doing statistics, you need to choose the right test. As weve talked about, there two types of data: nonparametric and parametric. This makes a big distinction in what tests we can perform. If our data is nominal and ordinal, there is no mean and so you do nonparametric tests.

STOP! The difference between ordinal and interval is often slight, and sometimes you can get away with using parametric tests for ordinal data.

There are some assumptions about data that you should be aware of. These also affect which test you choose. Nonparametric Nominal/Ordinal Data Random sampling Parametric Interval/Ratio Data Random sampling Normal Distribution Equal variances of the scores in populations that the samples come from.

Since the parametric data have more assumptions, the parametric tests are considered more powerful when the assumptions are met. Powerful means that these tests are better at picking up differences in variables in the population. Also they are more robust to the violations of the assumptions. So, if the assumptions are not completely met, you can still get accurate results. The only assumption thats nonnegotiable is the level of measurement. When you choose a statistical analysis, you need to do two things, make a hypothesis and decide on significance. We are now going to talk about each one before we go on to the test. 1. Making hypotheses is an essential part of every test. These hypotheses always deal with how the numbers of your sample relate to the numbers of the population. First, start with a null hypothesis and then an alternative hypothesis. Null Hypothesis (HO) states that the numbers of your sample do not differ significantly from the numbers of the population. For example, you walk into any old restaurant and do an IQ test on 30 customers. The HO says that the mean of their IQs should not differ significantly from the mean IQ of the population. Alternative Hypothesis (HA) states that the numbers of your sample differ significantly from the numbers of the population. For example, we heard that the restaurant has intelligence boosting spices in the food, so our HA is that the sample of 30 people from the restaurant has a mean IQ of 130, which is much higher than the populations IQ. 2. Significance shows us the likelihood that a particular result is due to chance. Remember back to our normal distribution and IQs. What are the chances that you randomly go to a restaurant and get a group of people to do an IQ test and the mean is 130? Pretty slim. As you can see in the graph to the right, about 97% of people have IQs below 130. Thats the concept behind significance. We are seeing what the likelihood is of getting a certain result. P is significance. So, if you see a result reported p<.05, it means that the likelihood that the result is due to chance is less than .05. You, when doing research, have .05 likelihood of chance that you can tolerate. It is conventional that significance is set at .05, but it can even be lower at .01 or even lower depending on how daring you want to be. One tailed or two tailed is where you put this likelihood of chance on your distribution curve. The likelihood of chance is also called alpha. 6

One-tailed tests are used if you have a directional hypothesis. Mainly, you put the .05 of chance in the direction of your alternative hypothesis. So, if you say youre going to find a sample with a mean of 130 and the mean is 100, you put the whole .05 in the direction of the hypothesis, which is above the mean.

.05 due to chance

Two-tailed tests are used when you are not certain in which direction your alternative hypothesis goes. So, if you hypothesize that a sample mean is somehow different than the populations mean, in either a positive or negative direction, then split the alpha into two parts of .025 and place them at either ends of the normal distribution.

.025 due to chance

.025 due to chance

After you have performed a test, you verbalize the result in a sentence. Also you usually report five things: test result, degrees of freedom (df), number of sample, significance and one- or two-tailed. 1. Test Result: Each test has its own mathematical equation. For our purposes in SPSS, we do not need to know the exact mechanics of each equation. We will just discuss the big picture of each test and roughly what its doing. Basically, for these analyses here, the higher the result, the better our chances of reaching significance and rejecting the H0. However, when reporting the result, you need to report the result of the equation. This will be pointed out in each of our tests. 2. Degrees of Freedom (df): The df is the number of frequencies that is allowed to vary, which is the number of observations minus the number of constraints. This point is very technical and really doesnt affect your research. You just need to report it. You only need to report this for chi-square, t-tests, correlation and ANOVAs. 3. Number: Number of cases in your sample. 4. One- or two-tailed: Where you put your chance of randomness (only with parametric tests). 7

5. Significance: You need to report the level of significance that your result reached. From these four things, the test result and significance are the most important. Basically, you need a test result of a number high enough to reach significance. For example, if I were doing chi-square with 2 df, I need a test result (critical value) of at least 5.992 to reach significance. If you reach significance, you can reject the HO and accept the HA (You always talk about accepting hypotheses). Dont worry, though. SPSS does all the math. You only need to understand and report the results.
df\area 1 .050 3.84146 5.99146 7.81473 9.48773 .025 5.02389 7.37776 9.34840 .010 6.63490 9.21034 .005 7.87944 10.59663

Minimum critical value to reach significance at p = .05 with 2 df.

2 3 4 5

11.34487 12.83816

11.14329 13.27670 14.86026

11.07050 12.83250 15.08627 16.74960

So, with our restaurant and IQ example, the result would be reported as The mean IQ of 130.76 for the 30 eaters at the restaurant was significantly higher than the national average IQ, t (29) = 20.650, p < .001, onetailed).

In this lesson, you will be introduced to three of the major statistical tests: chi-square, correlation, and t-tests. 1. CHI-SQUARE: This test is non-parametric, so it is appropriate for nominal data. Chi-square (written 2 whose symbol you can find among the Greek letters in Microsoft Word) is used as a test of frequencies, mostly percentages and proportions. The null hypothesis is that the numbers or frequencies that fall into categories are not different from a distribution caused by chance. It assumes that randomness is equal distribution among the categories. There are two types of chi-square: goodness-of-fit and test-of-independence. Goodness-of-fit compares frequencies of one variable against a hypothetical or known value. This test is not used quite often. Test-ofindependence compares frequencies of two or more variables, which is the more used test. Lets practice this.

Our data are from Pew Internet and American Life Project (http://www.pewinternet.org/index.asp), which collects survey data in regards to peoples Internet use. These data were collected after the last presidential election in 2004, specifically to gather data on how people behaved politically and in terms of using media. We have three variables: Polid: if the participant considered him/herself a Democrat or a Republican. Email: if the participant is signed up for online political alerts or emails. Camp: if the participant attends campaign rallies. So, using chi-square, lets compare how people voted to how they behaved politically. For example, the 2004 election was unusual in the fact that the Internet started to play a substantial role. Lets see if Democrats behaved differently statistically than Republicans. Well compare a new political behavior like using emails to traditional ones like going to rallies. First, we need to set up our HOs and HAs: Vote and Email HO: Democrats and Republicans do not differ in signing up for online political alerts. HA: Democrats signed up more for online political alerts than Republicans. Vote and Camp HO: Democrats and Republicans do not differ in going to campaign rallies. HA: Democrats attended campaign rallies more often than Republicans. Ok, lets start SPSS and import our data. First, please go to the Statistics Tutorial page (http://dl.lib.brown.edu/gateway/lrg.php?id=86&task=custom&contentid=931) and download and unzip the SPSSDATA for the exercise SPSS 2. Remember, to unzip, you right click the zipped file and click on Extract All. 1. Left-click onto Start from your Desktop and move your cursor over All Programs, which give you a menu off all the programs.

2. Put your cursor over IBM SPSS Statistics 19, which brings up a pop-up menu. To start the program, leftclick onto IBM SPSS Statistics 19 (SPSS is available on the CIS computers at the Rockefeller Library under the Computational menu).

3) You now receive the SPSS Data Editor window. Here you display your data and your variable information. In the IBM SPSS Statistics 19, you are prompted to start by running a tutorial or opening an existing data set. Make sure Open an existing data source is selected and click on OK.

All the data for this lesson are obtained through different sites at the Social Sciences Data Page at http://dl.lib.brown.edu/gateway/lrg.p hp?id=86&task=home Or, if you cant find what youre looking for, contact me, Tom at 37978 or Thomas_Stieve@brown.edu

4) In the Open File window, navigate to where you saved the SPSSDATA folder. Double-left click onto the Chi-Square file to open it up. The word document, worksheetspss2.doc, in the folder is for this exercise. You use the worksheet to write out our hypotheses and results. Every time you open up a new .sav file, the old one remains open, too. So, for our exercise, after we open a new data file, close the old.

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3. If you are not there, please go to the Variable View in the Data Editor. We are interested in the second variable, email, which concerns the survey question Have you ever signed up to receive email newsletters or other online alerts containing the latest news about politics or the election? 1) In the Values column, click on the three dots icon to bring up the Value Labels dialog. You can see that this is a dichotomous variable. There are two values: 1 for a yes and 2 for no. 2) Click Cancel.

2 Now we can perform chi-squares in SPSS on our data. 1. In the SPSS Data Editor, go to the Analyze menu, and select Descriptive Statistics. Left-click on Crosstabs.

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2. In the Crosstabs dialog, 1) select the variable Polid, click on the arrow and put it in the Column window. 2) Select the two variables Q26, and Q27a (our Email and Rally variables), click on the arrow and put them into the Rows window. Usually, you put the outcome you want to predict in the rows. So, you are setting up a matrix of variables compared to other variables. This is visualized in the results.

2 1

3. So far, we have just set up a crosstabulation of the variables. Now we have to select the actual chi-square analysis. 1) In the Crosstabs dialog, click on Statistics. 2) In the Crosstabs: Statistics dialog, select Chisquare. 3) Click on Continue, which brings us back to the Crosstabs dialog. 1 2

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4. Back in the Crosstabs dialog, 1) click on Cells. 2) In the Crosstabs: Cell Display dialog, select Column in Percentages. We want to see what percentage of people for a certain candidate did what. 3) Click Continue to go back to the Crosstabs dialog. Back in the Crosstabs dialog, 4) click OK to perform the analysis.

In the Output window, you see in the table of contents (TOC) on the left that groups of results were created. The first is just the summary which we can ignore. In the View on the right, scroll down to the chi-square results for our email variable.

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Ok, for the first hypothesis about voting and online alerts, we do see differences in the numbers. Only 10.2% of Republicans have ever signed up, compared to 14.8% of Democrats who did. However, we have to see if these numbers reached significance and we can accept our alternative hypothesis or were these numbers by chance and we retain the null hypothesis. Scroll down a little to the Chi-Square Tests.

In the chi-square chart, we are interested in the first test result, Pearson Chi-Square. This is the most common chi-square result. Our significance was .041, so we reached significance and we can accept the alternative hypothesis that Democrats signed up more for online political alerts than Republicans.

Remember, rule of thumb, you have to have a minimum of 5 expected cases for each value or chi-square shouldnt be performed if your data set is small. SPSS flags you on the bottom of the table about the cell count.

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Lets now look at our second hypothesis about voting and attending rallies. Scroll down to the next results. For this hypothesis, our numbers are similar. About 9.8 % of Republicans have ever attended rallies, but 13.1% of Democrats have attended. However, the differences in the numbers are not as different as before. Did we reach significance? Scroll down a little to the Chi-Square Tests.

We didnt. The significance is .104 and we need it below .05 to reject the null hypothesis that this is due to chance. Ok, this isnt far off, but statistics is a conservative science. You either obtain the necessary numbers or you dont. So, we need to retain the null hypothesis that there was no statistically significant difference in rally attendance.

Ok, lets report our results: 2(df, N = sample number) = result, p (<,=) number Vote and Email A higher percentage of Democrats (14.8%) signed up for online political alerts than Republicans (10.2%), 2 (1, N = 860) = 4.162, p = .041. Vote and Camp There was no statistically significant difference in the percentage of Democrats (13.1%) and Republicans (9.8%) who go to campaign rallies, 2 (1, N = 860) = 2.370, p = .124. 15

Please note: for this workshop, statistical citations follow APA format. Reporting Significance can be a little tricky. Significance is never simply zero. If numbers are rounded off to .05 or .01, then use <, i.e., p < .05 If its not rounded off, use = , i.e., p = .213 If you see .000, just report it as p <.001

Please close all the results in the Output screen by clicking on the minus sign (-) next to the Crosstabs in the table of contents (TOC), but leave the data window alone.

2. CORRELATION: This test shows the relationship between two variables. Specifically, we are looking to see if one variable varies with another. For parametric data, you perform Pearsons r, but if one of the variables is nonparametric or the assumptions are not met, then you can perform Spearmans (pronounced rho). With correlation, there are ideals: Perfect Positive Correlation: means that an increase in measurement of variable X means an equal increase in measurement for variable Y. Perfect Negative Correlation: means that an increase in measurement of variable X means an equal decrease in measurement for variable Y.
12
12

10
10

8
8

6
6

10

12

0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Positive Correlation

Negative Correlation 16

So, with correlation, we are trying to see if hypotheses like these are true: Positive Correlation: The more X, the more Y. Negative Correlation: The more X, the less Y. When we are dealing with parametric correlation, we talk about the correlation coefficient or r. This r shows the strength of the relationship between the two variables. The correlation coefficient can vary from 1 to -1. When r = 1, there is a perfect positive relationship When r = 0, there is no relationship When r = -1, there is a perfect negative relationship But, you can also see relationship with numbers smaller than that. Cohen & Cohen (1983) express relationships, either positive or negative, as such: When r is .1 to .3 = small correlation When r is .3 to .5 = moderate correlation When r is .5 and above = strong correlation Ok, we have two variables, lets say price of a product, variable X, and its consumption, variable Y. Through collecting data and doing correlation, it was discovered that the higher the price, the less the product was consumed.
170 160 150 140

130 120 110

CONSUM

100 90 50 60 70 80 90 100 110

PRICE

A nice example of correlation coefficients (http://noppa5.pc.helsinki.fi/koe/corr/cor7.html) However, be careful. Correlation does not necessarily mean causation. A study once found that the number of tornadoes increased with the number of cars on the road. As a joke, it was theorized that the rotation of the wheels caused all the tornadoes. Of course, it just simply meant that more tornadoes were observed with the increase of car traffic. Also, dont forget to visualize your data. Sometimes there isnt a linear relationship, but a curvilinear relationship. For example, anxiety and test grades are related in a curvilinear relationship. If someones anxiety in a test is low, then they probably wont do well. They probably dont care much. As anxiety increases, test performance increases. They care and get nervous. However, if the persons anxiety gets to be too much, then the performance decreases. The anxiety is getting the better of him/her. There are analyses for curvilinear relationships. Please see the help menu to explore that option.

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9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0

7.5 7.0 6.5

GRADE

6.0 5.5 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

ANXIETY

Pearsons r is a correlation test using parametric data. Poverty has a huge effect on society and behavior. For a sociological study, lets see how poverty and murder rates correlate. We have 2 variables: poverty data from the census (http://factfinder.census.gov/home/saff/main.html?_lang=en) and murder rates from the Department of Justice (http://bjsdata.ojp.usdoj.gov/dataonline/). Lets import our data, establish our hypotheses and perform our analyses. 1. In SPSS Data Editor, go to the File menu, select Open and left-click Data.

2. In the Open File window, double left-click the file Pearson and open it.

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3. You see our two variables for each state. We have the percentage of poverty and number of murders per 100,000 people for each state. Both variables are parametric data.

Every time you open a data set, a new SPSS Data Editor is open. For this exercise, whenever we open a new data set, you can close the one just worked on.

Ok, now lets establish our hypotheses. HO: There is no correlate between poverty and murder in the United States. HA: The murder rate positively correlates with the poverty rate in the United States. 4. After establishing our hypotheses, we can perform Pearsons r in SPSS. In the Analyze menu, select Correlate and left-click Bivariate.

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5. In the Bivariate Correlations dialog, 1) select each variable, click the arrow and move them into the Variables box. 2) As you can see in the Correlation Coefficients box, Pearson is automatically selected. In the Test of Significance box, chance it to One-tailed. Remember, we have made a directional hypothesis. We have hypothesized that the murder positively correlates (goes in the direction above 0) and we therefore need one-tailed. 3) Click OK.

3 In the Output window, we have our results. Lets look more closely at the results we need to report.

When your variables are ordinal data, you should use the Spearman option in Correlation Coefficients.

1. Our Pearson Correlation is .503, so its a strong correlation between poverty and murder. SPSS immediately flags significant results with asterisks. One asterisk means significant at .05 and two asterisks mean .01. 2. Our significance is .000, so we can reject the null hypothesis. 3. Our N is 50, so we have 50 cases. Lets report our results: r (sample) = result, p (< =) number Poverty and Murder There is a strong positive correlation between the poverty rate and the murder rate in the United States, r (50) = 0.503, p<.001, one-tailed. Before we move on to the next analysis, lets visual our data. This is a great way to understand data better. We are going to explore our data using a scatterplot, which is a graph of the points where our X variable meets our Y variable. 20

1. You can make graphs from the Data Editor or the Output window. Since were here, in the Output window, go to the Graphs menu, and left-click Chart Builder.

2. 1) In the Gallery tab, under the Choose from: select Scatterplot. 2) Double-left click Simple Scatter.

2 1

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3. 1) Drag the murder rate variable from the Variables field on the left into the X axis in the Chart Preview. 2) Drag the poverty rate into the Y Axis.

4. Now you want to set up your labels, so you can label each case by the state name. 1) Click on the Groups/Point ID tab. 2) Check of Point ID label. 3) Drag and drop the state variable into the Point ID box in the Chart Preview. 4) Click OK.

1 2

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In the Output window, you now have the scatterplot of our two variables. Just at first glance, you can see that the points are loosely forming a line going in the upper right direction. Lets put in a best fit line, which is the correlation line.

1. First we need to open up the Chart Editor. Double leftt-click on the graph, and open up the Editor.

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2. You now get the Chart Editor window. Lets put in the best fit line. 1) Click on the Add Fit Line at Total icon . This gives you a graphic depict of the correlation line. 2) The R Sq Linear is the r2 (0.253), or the coefficient of determination. This says how much of the variance of one variable is explained by the other. 3) Close the Properties dialog that appears.

1 2

3. Automatically, every case is labeled, but you can also label cases individually. 1) In the scatterplot, leftclick on a label and select them (They will take on a blue circle). 2) In the Elements pulldown, left-click on Hide Data Labels.

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4. We now want to individually label cases. Back in the Chart Editor, 1) click on Point Id and your cursor turns into a cross-hairs. 2) Left-click on the upper-left most case and the state label Maryland appears. If you left-click again, the name will disappear. Can you find Rhode Island?

4. Close the Chart Editor window. In the Output window, close the graph and correlations result with the minus in the TOC (Dont close the window), and lets move on to the next analysis. 3. T-TESTS T-tests are important tests for checking the difference between two groups using parametric data. What the test does is calculates the mean of the two groups and sees if the difference between the two means is greater than the variance between the two groups. Of these three options on the left, which one seems to have two distinct groups? The bottom one. Even though the difference in the mean is the same in all three groups, the third group has little overlap between the two groups. There are nonparametric versions of t-tests, such as Mann-Whitney test. Use the Help menu to learn about them.

(http://www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/stat_t.htm)

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There are three types of t-tests: Single-sample t-test: This tests the mean of a sample group with a hypothetical mean or an already known mean. Dependent-sample t-test: For this test, we test the difference in the means of two groups where each case is the same. For example, we have a new teaching methodology for a semester class. The test participants take a test before and after the course, and we compare the results to see if there is a difference in their performance. Independent-sample t-test: For this test, we test the difference in the means of two groups where each case is not the same. For example, to test a drug, we have an experimental group and a control group. We administer the drug to the experimental group, and then we test the difference between the experimental group and control group after a while. Single-sample t-test Lets study some historical economic data about California. 1) Import the Ttests file. When prompted to save the results for the regression data, click no.

2. We have census data on 57 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) in California. The first variable, man90, is the percentage of the labor force in manufacturing in those areas. Lets assume we are doing an economics study to show that Californias economy differed from the nation as a whole. For example, because California is more service industry oriented, we want to show that there were fewer manufacturing jobs there then in the whole country.

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Lets set up our hypotheses: HO: The mean of the percentage of jobs in manufacturing in the MSAs in California is not statistically different from the nation as a whole. HA: The mean of the percentage of jobs in manufacturing in the MSAs in California is lower than that of the nation as a whole. 3. In the Analyze menu, select Compare Means. Left-click One-Sample T Test.

4. In the One-Sample T Test dialog, 1) select man90, click the arrow and move it into the Test Variable(s) box. 2) In the Test Value field, type in the mean you want to compare your group with. In this case, its 16.2 for the country. 3) Click OK. 1

2 3 5. Lets look at our results. A. In One-Sample Statistics, we know that the mean of the MSAs is lower at 9.29%. B. In One-Sample Test, we have the t result, which is very high and negative. The negative sign says that our mean is below the nations mean. C. Df is the degrees of freedom D. Sig. is the significance, and .000 is very significant. 27

Report our results: t (df) = result, p (<,=) number The percentage of jobs in California involved in manufacturing (M = 9.29%) was lower than the national percentage of jobs involved in manufacturing (M = 16.2%), t (56) = -2749.984, p < .00025, one-tailed. Note: This automatically does a 2-tailed test. If you want to report significance for a one-tailed test, state the significance at p < .00025. SPSS rounds to the nearest third decimal, so .000 means .0005. Dependent-sample t-test Also using these data, lets look at government jobs. In the 1980s, Ronald Reagan pushed to lower the amount of federal jobs. Did he succeed in California? For each MSA in California, we have two variables, Fednum, which is the difference in the number of federal employment from 1970 to 1990, and Statnum, which is the difference in the number of state and local employment from 1970 to 1990. MSAs are our case and they are the same in each group. Lets set up our hypotheses: HO: There was no statistically significant difference in the change of the number of federal employees and state/local employees between 1970 and 1990. HA: There was more growth in the number of state/local employees than federal between 1970/1990. 1. In the Analyze menu, select Compare Means. Left-click Paired-Sample T Test.

2. 1) Select the variable difference in number of federal employees (1970/1990) fednum. Click the arrow and move it into the Pair 1 Variable1. 2) Select difference in number of state/local employees (1970/1990) statnum. Click the arrow and move it into the Pair 1 Variable2. 3) Click OK.

1 2 1

3 1

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4. From our results, we need to look at two charts, Paired Samples Statistics and Paired Samples Test.

A. In Paired Samples Statistics, we can see the means. The mean growth in federal employees was only about 625, whereas state and local grew at about 11,318. But is it significant?

B. In the Paired Samples Test, we see the numbers we need to result. The t was 3.949, the df and it was significant at .000.

Report our results: t (df) = result, p (<,=) number The growth in the number of state/local employees (M = 11,318) was more than the mean growth in the number of federal employees, (M = 625), t (56) = -3.949, p < .00025, one-tailed. Please close all the results, but keep the Output window open. Independent-sample t-test We are now interested in doing a t-test, but where one case in one group doesnt necessarily match with another case in the other group. For this example, we will be using data from the General Social Survey (GSS) found at (http://www.norc.org/GSS+Website/), which includes U.S. survey data since 1972 about a large variety of question, from abortion to zodiac sign. For sociological research, we want to see if age relates to belief in life after death. Please navigate to the Independentt file and open it.

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We have two variables, age and postlife. Age is parametric data of each participants age. Postlife is coded by belief in the after life. 1 means yes and 2 means no. So, we want to split the Postlife variable into two groups, those who believe and those dont believe. Then, using these two groups, we want to perform an independent t-test between the two groups on the age variable and see if the mean age is statistically different. Lets establish our hypotheses: HO: There is no difference in age between people who believe and who do not believe in an afterlife. HA: People who believe in the afterlife are older than those who do not.

1. In the Analyze menu, select Compare Means. Left-click Independent-Samples T Test.

2. In the Independent-Samples T Test dialog, 1) select age of respondent [age] and move it into the Test Variables box. 2) Select postlife and move it into the Grouping Variable. See how it becomes postfile (??). We have preparing to select the values within the variable to define our groups. 3) Click Define Groups. 1

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3. In the Define Groups dialog, 1) in Group 1: type in the value 1, which means belief, and in Group 2: type in the value 2, which is the value for no belief. 2) Click Continue. Back in the Independent-Samples T Test dialog, notice how the values have been set in the Grouping Variable postlife (1,2). 3) Click OK.

2 3 2 Ok, lets look at our results. A. In Group Statistics, you see the mean for the groups. The mean age for those who believe is 44.45, whereas the mean age for those who dont is 46.84.

B. In Independent Samples Test, you must first check out if there was equal variances assumed between the two groups. In Levenes Test, if equal variance assumed in p > .05, then use the first line of results. If p < .05, then use the second line of results. So, in this case, we need to use the second line.

C. In t-test for Equality of Means, we have our results. The t is -2.901, df and a significance at .037. So, we reject the null hypothesis, but our directional hypothesis went in the other direction! Remember, divide the significance in half for onetailed.

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Now, lets report our results: t (df) = result, p (<,=) number The age of people who did believe in the afterlife was slightly lower (M = 44.45 years) than those who did not (M = 46.84 years), t (417) = -2.091, p = .018. Note: You can truncate the dfs. This, however, is an interesting result. It shows the difference between a significant result and an important result. Even though statistically this is significant, meaning that its not due to chance, it is probably not important. The difference in age is slight, barely 2 years, and I would wager not really relevant in any research.

Analysis Chi-square

Data type nonparametric

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS REVIEW Purpose Reporting Goodness-of-fit compares 2(df, N = sample number) = result, p the frequencies of one (<,=) number variable against a hypothetical value Test-of-independence compares frequencies of two or more variables To show how two variables vary together. To show how two variables vary together. Single-sample t-test: tests the mean of a sample group with a hypothetical mean or an already known mean. Dependent-sample t-test: tests the difference in the means of two groups where each case is the same. Independent-sample t-test: tests the difference in the means of two groups where each case is not the same. Mann-Whitney

Correlation

parametric

Spearmans nonparametric (all rho ordinal data) T-test parametric

r (sample number) = result, p (< =) number rho (sample number) = result, p (< =) number t (df)= result, p(<=) result

Mann-Whitney U (df) = result, p < result * Remember, you also need to mention in the text or in the statistical reporting if your analysis was one- or twotailed.

nonparametric

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Online Statistics Help Very good outline guides for SPSS by the Department of Psychology at the University of Nebraska (http://www-class.unl.edu/psycrs/statpage/) The California State University Social Sciences Research and Instructional Council Teaching Resources Depository Home Page (http://www.csubak.edu/ssric/welcome.htm) Statistics at Texas A&M University (http://www.stat.tamu.edu/spss.php) Visualization of statistical analyses at Evotutor (http://www.evotutor.org/Statistics/StatisticsA.html) A New View of Statistics (http://www.sportsci.org/resource/stats/contents.html) HyperStat (http://davidmlane.com/hyperstat/) The Really Easy Statistics Site (http://helios.bto.ed.ac.uk/bto/statistics/tress1.html)

Publishing Guide American Psychological Publishing. Association (2001) Publication Manual of the American Psychological Association. (5th Ed.). Washington, D.C. Morgan, S. E., Reichert, T. & Harrison, T. R. From Numbers to Words. Boston: Allyn and Bacon.

Contact Info: Tom Stieve Thomas_Stieve@brown.edu 863-7978 Thomas Stieve 33