The African Mobile Telecom Market 2013-2023

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Contents
1. Executive Summary
1.1 African Telecoms Growth 1.2 Benefits of This Report 1.3 Who is This Report For? 1.4 Methodology 1.5 Total African Mobile Subscription Forecast 2013-2023 1.6 Total African Mobile Subscription Forecast by Device Type 2013-2023 1.7 Regional African Mobile Subscription Forecast 2013-2023

2. Introduction to the African Mobile Market

2.1 African Mobile Market Structure Overview 2.2 African Countries - Market Definition 2.2.1 African Regions - Market Definition 2.3 African Mobile Broadband Market 2.4 Spectrum Development 2.4.1 Potential Economic Impact of Mobile Broadband Availability 2.5 Taxation: Potential Mobile Uptake Barrier

3. African Mobile Forecasts 2013-2023

3.1 Total African Mobile Subscriptions Forecast 2013-2023 3.2 African Population Growth and Mobile Penetration Forecast 2013-2023 3.3 African Mobile Technology 2013 3.3.1 Alcatel Lucent providing 4G Infrastructure in Ghana 3.3.2 African Mobile Technology Market Share Forecast 2013-2023 3.4 Total African Mobile Subscriptions Forecast by Device Type 2013-2023 3.4.1 African Smartphone Subscription Forecast 2013-2023 3.4.2 African Feature Phone Subscription Forecast 2013-2023 3.4.3 African Tablet/MID Subscription Forecast 2013-2023 3.5 Total African Mobile Operator Revenue Forecast 2013-2023 3.5.1 Total African Mobile Operator Revenue Forecast by Service Type 2013-2023

4. Regional African Mobile Market Forecasts 2013-2023

4.1 Regional African Mobile Market by Subscriptions 2013 2018 4.2 Regional African Mobile Market by Mobile Penetration 2013 4.3 Regional African Mobile Subscriber Market Share 2013 2023

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4.4 East African Mobile Forecasts 2013-2023 4.4.1 Kenyan Mobile Subscriptions Dip as SIM Cards Deactivated 4.4.2 East African Mobile Subscriber Forecasts 2013-2023 4.4.3 East African Mobile Subscriber Forecasts by Device Type 2013-2023 4.4.3.1 East African Smartphone Subscriber Forecasts 2013-2023 4.4.3.2 East African Feature Phone Subscriber Forecasts 2013-2023 4.4.3.3 East African Tablet/MID Subscriber Forecasts 2013-2023 4.4.5 East African Mobile Subscription by Country 2013 4.5 Central African Mobile Forecasts 2013-2023 4.5.1 Democratic Republic of Congo leads with Greatest Number of Mobile Subscriptions 4.5.2 Central African Mobile Subscription Forecasts 2013-2023 4.5.3 Central African Mobile Subscription Forecasts by Device Type 2013-2023 4.5.3.1 Central African Smartphone Subscription Forecasts 2013-2023 4.5.3.2 Central African Feature Phone Subscription Forecasts 2013-2023 4.5.3.3 Central African Tablet/MID Subscription Forecasts 2013-2023 4.5.4 Central African Mobile Subscription by Country 2013 4.6 North African Mobile Forecasts 2013-2023 4.6.1 Egyptian Ministry of Communications and Information Technology Sets Mobile and Internet Goals 4.6.2 North African Mobile Subscriber Forecasts 2013-2023 4.6.3 North African Mobile Subscriber Forecasts by Device Type 2013-2023 4.6.3.1 North African Smartphone Subscriber Forecasts 2013-2023 4.6.3.2 North African Feature Phone Subscriber Forecasts 2013-2023 4.6.3.3 North African Tablet/MID Subscriber Forecasts 2013-2023 4.6.4 North African Mobile Subscription by Country 2013 4.7 Southern African Mobile Forecasts 2013-2023 4.7.1 South African Company to Manufacture Handsets Specifically for African Market 4.7.2 Southern African Mobile Subscription Forecasts 2013-2023 4.7.3 Southern African Mobile Subscription Forecasts by Device Type 2013-2023 4.7.3.1 Southern African Smartphone Subscription Forecasts 2013-2023 4.7.3.2 Southern African Feature Phone Subscription Forecasts 2013-2023 4.7.3.3 Southern African Tablet/MID Subscription Forecasts 2013-2023 4.7.4 Southern African Mobile Subscription by Country 2013 4.8 Western African Mobile Forecasts 2013-2023 4.8.1 Will Smartphone Penetration in Western Africa to Lead to App Revolution? 4.8.2 Western African Mobile Subscription Forecasts 2013-2023 4.8.3 Western African Mobile Subscription Forecasts by Device Type

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2013-2023 4.8.3.1 Western African Smartphone Subscription Forecasts 2013-2023 4.8.3.2 Western African Feature Phone Subscription Forecasts 2013-2023 4.8.3.3 Western African Tablet/MID Subscription Forecasts 2013-2023 4.8.4 Western African Mobile Subscription by Country 2013 4.9 Regional African Total Mobile Operator Revenue Forecasts 2013-2023 4.9.1 Regional African Mobile Operator Revenue Forecasts for Voice Services 2013-2023 4.9.2 Regional African Mobile Operator Revenue Forecasts for Data and Non-Voice Services 2013-2023 4.10 Regional African mPayment Market Forecasts 2013-2023 4.10.1 The Kenyan mPayment Market: An Anomaly and Benchmark in the African Continent 4.10.1.1 M-Pesas Abounding Success 4.10.1.2 Kenyan mPayment Market Forecast 2013-2023 4.10.1.3 Kenyan mPayment User Forecast 2013-2023 4.10.2 The Nigerian mPayment Market 4.10.2.1 Nigerian National mPayment Market Forecast 2013-2023 4.10.2.2 Nigerian National mPayment User Forecast 2013-2023

5. Complete National African Mobile Market Analysis 2013 6. SWOT Analysis of the African Mobile Market 2013-2023 7. Expert Opinion
7.1 MTN Group 7.1.1 Which Factors are Driving the African Mobile Market? 7.1.2 What Factors are Restraining the African Mobile Market? 7.1.3 What Trends are you Seeing in the African Mobile Market? 7.1.4 Will Feature Phones Decline in the African Mobile Market? 7.1.5 The Important of Price for Services and Handsets 7.1.6 Expected Growth Rates in the African Tablet Market? 7.1.7 How Does the African Mobile Market Differ from Mobile Market in Developed Nations? 7.1.8 The Ratio of Prepaid vs.Postpaid Mobile Subscribers. Will this Change? 7.1.4 Will Feature Phones Decline in the African Mobile Market? 7.1.9 Which Mobile Services do you Expect to See Rapid Growth With?

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7.1.10 When Will LTE/4G Services see Widespread Uptake? 7.1.11 How Will Penetration Rates Develop in the Next Decade?

8. Leading Companies in the African Mobile Market

8.1 Leading African Mobile Company Scorecard 2013 8.2 MTN Company Overview 8.2.1 South African Regulatory Changes Crippling Mobile Market? 8.2.2 MTN Group Regional African Operations 8.3 Vodafone Company Overview 8.3.1 Vodafone to Expand African Enterprise Offerings 8.4 Orange Company Overview 8.4.1 Orange to bring M-Banking to Africa? 8.5 Mobinil Company Overview 8.5 Mobinil Network and Coverage 2013 8.6 Vodacom Company Overview 8.6.1 Vodacom to Triumph in Low Cost Smartphone Market? 8.7 Etisalat Company Overview 8.7.1 Etisalat Losing African Market Share? 8.8 Glo Mobile Company Overview 8.8.1 Glo Mobile Strategies 8.9 Ethio Telecom Company Overview 8.9.1 Ethio Telecom No Longer Under France Telecoms Management 8.9.2 Ethio Telecom Targets 3G High Speed Internet Market 8.10 Airtel Africa Company Overview 8.10.1 Airtel Africa Changing Strategies to Combat MTN 8.11 Safaricom Company Overview 8.11.1 Safaricom and M-PESA 8.12 Tigo Company Overview 8.12.1 Tigo African Strategy 8.13 Djezzy Company Overview 8.13.1 Djezzy African Strategy 8.14 Maroc Telecom Company Overview 8.14.1 Maroc Telecom Growing Subscribers, Dropping Revenues 8.15 Zain Company Overview 8.15.1 Zains Presence in Africa 8.16 Mobilis Company Overview

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8.16.1 Mobilis Bid in 3G Auction 8.17 Cell-C Company Overview 8.17 Cell-C Pricing Strategies 8.18 Nedjma Company Overview 8.18.1 Nedjmas Vision and Strategy 8.19 Unitel Angola Company Overview 8.19.1 Unitel Angola and Huawei Partner with Ministry of Education for E-Net Internet Expansion 8.20 Inwi Company Overview 8.20.1 Segmentation Strategy the Key to Inwis Success? 8.21 Other Leading Companies in the African Mobile Market

9. Conclusions and Recommendations for Success in the African Mobile Market

9.1 Reduce the Cost of Mobile and Broadband 9.2 Support Collaboration between Governments and the Private Sector 9.3 Encourage Ecommerce 9.4 Total African Mobile Subscription Forecast 2013-2023 9.5 Total African Mobile Subscription Forecast by Device Type 2013-2023 9.6 Regional African Mobile Subscription Forecast 2013-2023

10. Glossary

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List of Charts
Chart 3.2: Total African Mobile Subscriptions Forecast 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %) Chart 3.4: African Population Growth Forecast 2013-2023 (Billions, AGR %) Chart 3.5: African Population Vs. Mobile Subscriptions Forecast 2013-2023 (Millions) Chart 3.7: African Mobile Penetration Forecast 2013-2023 (%) Chart 3.8: African Mobile Technology Market Share 2013 (%) Chart 3.9: African Mobile Technology Market Share 2018 (%) Chart 3.10: African Mobile Technology Market Share 2023 (%) Chart 3.12: African Mobile Subscription Forecast by Device Type 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %, CAGR %) Chart 3.13: African Smartphone Subscription Forecast 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %) Chart 3.15: African Feature Phone Subscription Forecast 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %) Chart 3.17: African Tablet/MID Subscription Forecast 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %) Chart 3.19: Total African Mobile Operator Revenue Forecast 2013-2023 ($ Billions, AGR %) Chart 3.20: Total African Mobile Operator Revenue Forecast by Service Type 2013-2023 ($ Billions) Chart 4.2: Regional African Mobile Market by Subscriptions 2013 (Millions) Chart 4.4: Regional African Mobile Market by Mobile Penetration 2013 (%) Chart 4.6: Regional African Mobile Subscriber Market Share 2013 -2023 (%) Chart 4.8: Regional African Mobile Subscriber Market Share 2013 (%) Chart 4.9: Regional African Mobile Subscriber Market Share 2018 (%) Chart 4.10: Regional African Mobile Subscriber Market Share 2023 (%) Chart 4.11: East African Mobile Subscriber Forecast 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %) Chart 4.14: East African Smartphone Subscriber Forecasts 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %) Chart 4.16: East African Feature Phone Subscriber Forecasts 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %) Chart 4.18: East African Tablet/MID Subscriber Forecasts 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %) Chart 4.21: East Africa Mobile Subscriptions by Country 2013 (Millions) Chart 4.22: East Africa Mobile Penetration by Country 2013 (%) Chart 4.23: Central African Mobile Subscriber Forecast 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %) Chart 4.26: Central African Smartphone Subscription Forecasts 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %) Chart 4.28: Central African Feature Phone Subscription Forecasts 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %) Chart 4.30: Central African Tablet/MID Subscription Forecasts 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %) Chart 4.33: Central African Mobile Subscriptions by Country 2013 (Millions) Chart 4.34: Central African Mobile Penetration by Country 2013 (%) Chart 4.35: North African Mobile Subscriber Forecast 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %) Chart 4.38: North African Smartphone Subscriber Forecasts 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %) Chart 4.40: North African Feature Phone Subscriber Forecasts 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %)

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Chart 4.42: North African Tablet/MID Subscriber Forecasts 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %) Chart 4.45: North African Mobile Subscriptions by Country 2013 (Millions) Chart 4.46: North African Mobile Penetration by Country 2013 (%) Chart 4.47: Southern African Mobile Subscription Forecast 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %) Chart 4.50: Southern African Smartphone Subscription Forecasts 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %) Chart 4.52: Southern African Feature Phone Subscription Forecasts 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %) Chart 4.54: Southern African Tablet/MID Subscription Forecasts 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %) Chart 4.57: Southern African Mobile Subscriptions by Country 2013 (Millions) Chart 4.58: Southern African Mobile Penetration by Country 2013 (%) Chart 4.59: West Africa Mobile Subscription 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %) Chart 4.62: Western African Smartphone Subscription Forecasts 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %) Chart 4.64: Western African Feature Phone Subscription Forecasts 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %) Chart 4.66: Western African Tablet/MID Subscription Forecasts 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %) Chart 4.69: Western Africa Mobile Subscriptions by Country 2013 (Millions) Chart 4.70: Western Africa Mobile Penetration by Country 2013 (%) Chart 4.71: Regional African Total Mobile Operator Revenue Forecasts 2013-2023 ($ Billions) Chart 4.73: Regional African Total Mobile Operator Revenue Forecasts 2013-2023 ($ Billions) Chart 4.75: Regional African Mobile Operator Revenue Forecasts for Data and Non-Voice Services 2013-2023 ($ Billions) Chart 4.77: Kenyan mPayment Transaction Value Forecast 2013-2023 ($ Billion, AGR %) Chart 4.79: Kenyan mPayment Revenue Forecast 2013-2023 ($ Billion, AGR %) Chart 4.81: Kenyan mPayment Cumulative User Forecast 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %) Chart 4.83: Nigerian mPayment Transaction Value Forecast 2013-2023 ($ Billion, AGR %) Chart 4.85: Nigerian mPayment Revenue Forecast 2013-2023 ($ Billion, AGR %) Chart 4.87: Nigerian mPayment Cumulative User Forecast 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %) Chart 8.2: Leading 20 Companies Market Share 2013 (% share)

List of Tables
Table 1.1: Total African Mobile Subscription Forecast 2013, 2018, 2023 (Millions, CAGR %) Table 1.2: Total African Mobile Subscription Forecast by Device Type 2013, 2018, 2023 (Millions, CAGR %) Table 1.3: Regional African Mobile Subscription Forecast 2013, 2018, 2023 (Millions, CAGR %) Table 2.2: List of African Countries Table 2.3: List of African Countries by Region Table 3.1: Total African Mobile Subscriptions Forecast 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %, CAGR %) Table 3.3: African Population Growth Forecast 2013-2023 (Billions, AGR %, CAGR %)

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Table 3.6: African Population Vs. Mobile Subscriptions Vs. Mobile Penetration Forecast 2013-2023 (Billions, Millions, %) Table 3.11: African Mobile Subscription Forecast by Device Type 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %, CAGR %) Table 3.14: African Smartphone Subscription Forecast 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %, CAGR %) Table 3.16: African Feature Phone Subscription Forecast 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %, CAGR %) Table 3.18: African Tablet/MID Subscription Forecast 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %, CAGR %) Table 3.20: Total African Mobile Operator Revenue Forecast 2013-2023 ($ Billions, AGR %, CAGR %) Table 3.21: Total African Mobile Operator Revenue Forecast by Service Type 2013-2023 ($ Billions, AGR %, CAGR %) Table 4.1: Regional African Mobile Subscriber Forecast 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %, CAGR %) Table 4.3: Regional African Mobile Market by Subscriptions 2013 (Millions) Table 4.5: Regional African Mobile Market by Mobile Penetration 2013 (%) Table 4.7: Regional African Mobile Subscriber Market Share 2013 - 2023 (%) Table 4.12: East African Mobile Subscriber Forecast 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %, CAGR %) Table 4.13: East African Mobile Subscriber Forecasts by Device Type 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %, CAGR %) Table 4.15: East African Smartphone Subscriber Forecasts 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %, CAGR %) Table 4.17: East African Feature Phone Subscriber Forecasts 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %, CAGR %) Table 4.19: East African Tablet/MID Subscriber Forecasts 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %, CAGR %) Table 4.20: East African Mobile Subscriptions by Country 2013 (Country, Population, Subscription, Penetration) Table 4.24: Central African Mobile Subscriber Forecast 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %, CAGR %) Table 4.25: Central African Mobile Subscriber Forecasts by Device Type 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %, CAGR %) Table 4.27: Central African Smartphone Subscription Forecasts 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %, CAGR %) Table 4.29: Central African Feature Phone Subscription Forecasts 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %, CAGR %) Table 4.31: Central African Tablet/MID Subscription Forecasts 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %, CAGR %) Table 4.32: Central African Mobile Subscriptions by Country 2013 (Country, Population, Subscription, Penetration) Table 4.36: North African Mobile Subscriber Forecast 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %, CAGR %)

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Table 4.37: North African Mobile Subscriber Forecasts by Device Type 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %, CAGR %) Table 4.39: North African Smartphone Subscriber Forecasts 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %, CAGR %) Table 4.41: North African Feature Phone Subscriber Forecasts 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %, CAGR %) Table 4.43: North African Tablet/MID Subscriber Forecasts 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %, CAGR %) Table 4.44: North African Mobile Subscriptions by Country 2013 (Country, Population, Subscription, Penetration) Table 4.48: Southern African Mobile Subscription Forecast 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %, CAGR %) Table 4.49: Southern African Mobile Subscriber Forecasts by Device Type 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %, CAGR %) Table 4.51: Southern African Smartphone Subscription Forecasts 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %, CAGR %) Table 4.53: Southern African Feature Phone Subscription Forecasts 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %, CAGR %) Table 4.55: Southern African Tablet/MID Subscription Forecasts 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %, CAGR %) Table 4.56: Southern African Mobile Subscription by Country 2013 (Country, Population, Subscription, Penetration) Table 4.60: West Africa Mobile Subscription 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %, CAGR %) Table 4.61: Western African Mobile Subscriber Forecasts by Device Type 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %, CAGR %) Table 4.63: Western African Smartphone Subscription Forecasts 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %, CAGR %) Table 4.65: Western African Feature Phone Subscription Forecasts 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %, CAGR %) Table 4.67: Western African Tablet/MID Subscription Forecasts 2013-2023 (Millions, AGR %, CAGR %) Table 4.68: Western African Mobile Subscription by Country 2013 (Country, Population, Subscription, Penetration) Table 4.72: Regional African Total Mobile Operator Revenue Forecasts 2013-2023 ($ Billions, AGR %, CAGR %) Table 4.74: Regional African Total Mobile Operator Revenue Forecasts 2013-2023 ($ Billions. AGR %, CAGR %)

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Table 4.76: Regional African Mobile Operator Revenue Forecasts for Data and Non-Voice Services 2013-2023 ($ Billions, AGR %, CAGR %) Table 4.78: Kenyan mPayment Transaction Value Forecast 2013-2023 ($ Billion, AGR %) Table 4.80: Kenyan mPayment Revenue Forecast 2013-2023 ($ Billion, AGR %, CAGR %, Cumulative) Table 4.82: Kenyan mPayment Cumulative User Forecast 2013-2023 (million, AGR %, CAGR %, Cumulative) Table 4.84: Nigerian mPayment Transaction Value Forecast 2013-2023 ($ Billion, AGR %, CAGR %, Cumulative) Table 4.86: Nigerian mPayment Revenue Forecast 2013-2023 ($ billion, AGR %, CAGR %, Cumulative) Table 4.88: Nigerian mPayment Cumulative User Forecast 2013-2023 (million, AGR %, CAGR %, Cumulative) Table 5.1: Complete National African Mobile Market Analysis 2013 (Population, Subscriptions, Penetration %, Operators) Table 6.1: SWOT Analysis of the African Mobile Market 2013-2023 Table 8.1: Leading 20 African Mobile Telecom Companies 2013 (Market Ranking, Total Revenue, Market Share %) Table 8.3: MTN Group Company Overview 2012 (Total Revenue, African Market Share %, HQ, Contact, Website) Table 8.4: MTN African Operations 2013 (Country, Operator Brand) Table 8.5: Vodafone Company Overview 2012 (Total Revenue, African Market Share %, HQ, Contact, Website) Table 8.6: Vodafone African Operations 2013 Table 8.7: Orange Company Overview 2012 (Total Revenue, Revenue from Market, % Revenue From Market, Global Market Share %, HQ, Ticker, Contact, Website) Table 8.8: Mobinil Company Overview 2012 (Total Revenue, African Market Share %, HQ, Contact, Website) Table 8.9: Vodacom Company Overview 2012 (Total Revenue, African Market Share %, HQ, Contact, Website) Table 8.10: Etisalat Company Overview 2012 (Total Revenue, African Market Share %, HQ, Contact, Website) Table 8.11: Glo Mobile Company Overview 2012 (Total Revenue, African Market Share %, HQ, Contact, Website) Table 8.12: Company Overview 2012 (Total Revenue, African Market Share %, HQ, Contact, Website)

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Table 8.13: Airtel Africa Company Overview 2012 (Total Revenue, African Market Share %, HQ, Contact, Website) Table 8.14: Airtel Africa Regional Operation 2013 Table 8.15: Safaricom Company Overview 2012 (Total Revenue, African Market Share %, HQ, Contact, Website) Table 8.16: Tigo Company Overview 2012 (Total Revenue, African Market Share %, HQ, Contact, Website) Table 8.17: Djezzy Company Overview 2012 (Total Revenue, African Market Share %, HQ, Contact, Website) Table 8.18: Maroc Telecom Company Overview 2012 (Total Revenue, African Market Share %, HQ, Contact, Website) Table 8.19: Zain Company Overview 2012 (Total Revenue, African Market Share %, HQ, Contact, Website) Table 8.20: Mobilis Company Overview 2012 (Total Revenue, African Market Share %, HQ, Contact, Website) Table 8.21: Cell-C Company Overview 2012 (Total Revenue, African Market Share %, HQ, Contact, Website) Table 8.22: Nedjma Company Overview 2012 (Total Revenue, African Market Share %, HQ, Contact, Website) Table 8.23: Nedjmas Strategy 2013 Table 8.24: Unitel Angola Company Overview 2012 (Total Revenue, African Market Share %, HQ, Contact, Website) Table 8.25: Inwi Company Overview 2012 (Total Revenue, African Market Share %, HQ, Contact, Website) Table 8.26: Other Leading Companies in the African Mobile Market 2013

List of Figures
Figure 2.1 African Market Structure Overview

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Companies Mentioned
3C Telecommunications Africell Airtel Airtel Africa Airtel Kenya Airtel Seychelles Ltd Al Madar Alcatel-Lucent Al-Thuraya Areeba Atlantic Azur Bbcom Be Mobile Benson Informatics Bharti Airtel Botswana Mascom Cable and Wireless (Seychelles) Ltd Canar Cell C Cellcom CellSAF Celtel Chinguitel Comium Commercial Bank of Africa Comores Telecom Comoro Gulf Holding CST CV Movel Djezzy Du Econet Econet Ezi-Cel Egotel Emtel

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Equateur Telecom Congo Eritel Essar Ethio Telecom ETHMTN Etisalat Etisalat Misr Evatis Excellentcom Expresso Telecom Gamcell Gemtel Geni holding G-Expresso Ghana Telecom Glo Gateway Glo Mobile Global Telecom Globalcom (Glo Mobile) G-Mobile Golis Telecom Somalia GreenN GreenN Guinetel Haatif Telecom Hello Mobile Hormuud Telecom Huawei IAM Intercell Investcom Inwi Inwi Koz Lacell Lanun Securitas SA Leo

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Libercom Libertis Libyana Life Lonestar Cell Maroc Telecom MASCOM MATTEL mCel Mcell Medital Millicom Millicom (Tigo) Mobile Caf Mobilis Mobinil Moov Movicel Telecomunicaes, S.A. Movitel MTC Mtel MTH Ghana MTML MTN Group MTN Bissau MTN Congo Muauritel Multilinks Telkom MUNI MyCell Nationlink Nedjma Net*One Nokia Oger Telecoms South Africa ONA ONAMOB

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One Touch Orange Orange Business Services Orange Moov Orange RDC Orange Uganda Planor Portugal Telecom, Qcell Red Bull Mobile Rural Netco Rwandatel Safaricom salam Samsung Sasatel Seemahale Telecoms SemaTel Sierratel SmileCom Somafone Somtel Sonangol Sonitel Sotelgui Sotelma Malitel Starcomms Sudani Supercell Surfline Communications Ltd. Telcom Mobile Telecel Telecel Centrafrique Telecel Faso Telecom Egypt Telkom Telkom Kenya

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Telkom Mobile Telmob Temlma Mobile Tempo Tigo T-MAIS TNM Togocel TTCL Mobile Tunisiana Tunisie Telecom U-Com Unitel Angola Unitel S.A. UT Mobile Vimpelcom Virgin Mobile Visafone Vivacell Vivendi Vodacom Vodacom Lesotho Vodafone Vodafone Egypt Vodafone Global Enterprise (VGE) Warid Wataniya Telecom Yu Zain Zain Africa BV ZAMTEL Zoom

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Organisations Mentioned
Communications Commission of Kenya (CCK) Egyptian Ministry of Communications and Information Technology (ICT) Kenya ICT Board Ministry of Education (Angola) Regulatory Authority for Post and Telecommunications (ARPT) The Independent Communications Authority of South Africa (ICASA)

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The African Mobile Telecom Market 2013-2023

4.5.3 Central African Mobile Subscription Forecasts by Device Type 2013-2023
Below in Table 4.25 are the forecasted mobile subscriptions for Central Africa by device type from 2013-2023

Table 4.25: Central African Mobile Subscriber Forecasts by Device Type 20132023 (Millions, AGR %, CAGR %)
2013 Smartphones AGR % CAGR % 2013-18 CAGR % 2013-23 Feature Phones AGR % CAGR % 2013-18 CAGR % 2013-23 Tablets/ MIDs AGR % CAGR % 2013-18 CAGR % 2013-23 Regional Total AGR % CAGR % 2013-18 CAGR % 2013-23 Source: visiongain, 2013 59.9 64.2 7.2 68.9 7.3 6.4 72.9 5.8 77.7 6.6 1.7 3.2 88.2 4.8 50.0 48.3 6.6 37.5 9.3 40.9 48.1 45.6 -5.2 44.1 -3.3 -8.4 40.1 -9.1 35.7 -11 10.1 2014 15.4 52.5 2015 20.0 29.9 30.6 2016 26.2 31.0 2017 32.6 24.4 2018 38.3 17.5 CAGR % 2018-23 20.4 31.0 -13.2 CAGR % 2018-23 -24 12.2 31.2 CAGR % 2018-23 35.3 81.6 5.0 CAGR % 2018-23 5.5 85.4 4.7 89.3 4.6 94.4 5.7 4.7 98.4 4.2 102.6 4.3 15.4 26.2 19.7 27.9 24.5 24.4 23.4 29.5 20.4 34.9 18.3 25.6 -17.4 19.7 -23.1 14.2 -27.9 -36.9 8.9 -37.3 3.1 -65.2 2019 44.4 15.9 2020 50.0 12.6 2021 55.7 11.4 11.1 2022 60.0 7.7 2023 64.7 7.8

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Chart 4.79: Kenyan mPayment Revenue Forecast 2013-2023 ($ Billion, AGR %)

Source: visiongain, 2013

Table 4.80: Kenyan mPayment Revenue Forecast 2013-2023 ($ Billion, AGR %, CAGR %, Cumulative)
2013 Revenue ($ bn) AGR (%) Cumulative CAGR (%) 2013-18 CAGR (%) 2013-23
Source: visiongain, 2013

2014 0.48 35.6

2015 0.9 86.1

2016 1.08 20.2

2017 1.36 26.2

2018 1.66 22.2 18.6 CAGR (%) 2018-23 36.2

2019 1.88 13.3

2020 2.25 19.7

2021 2.6 15.6

2022 2.92 12.3

2023 3.14 7.5

0.35 -

58.9

22.8

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The African Mobile Telecom Market 2013-2023

7. Expert Opinion
7.1 MTN Group
We interviewed MTN Group of South Africa in November 2013 and we thank them for their contribution to our market study. MTN Group is the leading mobile telecoms provider in Africa as reflected in the leading companies section.

____

7.1.1 Which Factors are Driving the African Mobile Market?

Visiongain: What is driving the current African mobile market?

MTN Group: Over a decade ago, the traditional voice services was the driver, today however, the needs of customers have shifted to broader digital offerings.

Our business going forward is about digital services. We have to become very good at developing and rolling out data services or services that drive data traffic.

Hence the need for MTN to refresh its vision and mission and refine its strategic objectives. The new vision to lead the delivery of a bold new digital world to our customers and the mission to make our customers lives a whole lot brighter reflect our future ambitions what we want to become and how we want to engage with our customers.

We see the Digital World as universal access to digital products which change the way we live our lives for the better.

At the core of this is smartphone technology, social media, advertising, e-Commerce, Cloud services and Content delivery.

7.1.2 What Factors are Restraining the African Mobile Market?

Visiongain: What is restraining the current African mobile market?

MTN Group: Competition and regulatory pressure, significant capital investment requirements and the growth of OTT players internet-based alternatives to traditional telephony services.

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8.2 MTN Company Overview
Table 8.3: MTN Group Company Overview 2012 (Total Revenue, African Market Share %, HQ, Contact, Website) 2012 $14.9bn 5.5% ROODEPOORT, South Africa investor_relations@mtn.co.za www.mtn.com

Total company revenue $bn African market share % Headquarters IR Contact Website
Source: visiongain, 2013

MTN Group is a South Africa-based multinational mobile telecommunications company, operating in many African, European and Middle Eastern countries. MTN's competition in South Africa includes Vodacom, Cell C, Virgin Mobile and 8ta.

8.2.1 South African Regulatory Changes Crippling Mobile Market?

In Q4 2013 shares of South African mobile operators Vodacom Group and MTN Group fell sharply after the telecoms regulator, The Independent Communications Authority of South Africa (ICASA), said it planned to cut by 75% the fees they can charge rivals to use their network. The South African government is facing elections next year, and is trying to reduce call costs that are above the average on the continent.

The Independent Communications Authority of South Africa (ICASA) said on Friday after the market closed that it planned to cut so-called mobile termination rates (MTR) to 10 South African cents by 2016, from 40 cents now. The fixed-line termination rate - the amount mobile phone companies pay for calls to landlines - will remain unchanged.

8.2.2 MTN Group Regional African Operations

See Table 8.4 below for a detailed summary of the MTN Groups regional African Operations.

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