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Disclosures
The analyses and conclusions of Broyhill Asset Management, LLC (BAM") contained in this presentation are based on publicly available information. BAM recognizes that there may be confidential information in the possession of the companies discussed in the presentation that could lead these companies to disagree with BAMs conclusions. This presentation and the information contained herein is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The analyses provided may include certain statements, estimates and projections prepared with respect to, among other things, the historical and anticipated operating performance of the companies, access to capital markets and the values of assets and liabilities. Such statements, estimates, and projections reflect various assumptions by BAM concerning anticipated results that are inherently subject to significant economic, competitive, and other uncertainties and contingencies and have been included solely for illustrative purposes. No representations, express or implied, are made as to the accuracy or completeness of such statements, estimates or projections or with respect to any other materials herein. Actual results may vary materially from the estimates and projected results contained herein. Accordingly, no party should purchase or sell securities on the basis of the information contained in this presentation. BAM expressly disclaims liability on account of any partys reliance on the information contained herein with respect to any such purchases or sales. Accounts managed by BAM and its affiliates have invested in the equity of Cedar Fair, LP (FUN). It is possible that there will be developments in the future that cause BAM to change its position regarding the companies discussed in this presentation. BAM may buy, sell, cover or otherwise change the form of its investment regarding such companies for any reason. BAM hereby disclaims any duty to provide any updates or changes to the analyses contained here including, without limitation, the manner or type of any BAM investment.
Disclosures | 2
Agenda
The Macro Sound Advice Find Your Niche Knowing Where To Fish Looking For A Cheap Thrill? Bottom Line: Putting It All Together
Agenda | 3
Macro Backdrop
Sound Advice
Sound Advice
Sound Advice | 15
Sound Advice | 16
Macro Thinkers
Sound Advice | 17
Short Sellers
Sound Advice | 18
Agitators
Sound Advice | 19
Value Guys
Sound Advice | 20
Cheaters?
Sound Advice | 21
Sound Advice | 22
Our Niche
Sex Sells
Our Niche | 24
Our Niche | 25
Our Niche | 26
$25
15x 2013 Estimated Fee-related Earnings of $1.69
$7
Current Accrued Incentives Discounted 20%
$7
Current Investment In LPs Discounted 20%
$17
6x 2013 Estimated Incentive Income
$56
Potential Return: 38%
$65
Now What?
$60
$55
$50
$45
$40
$35
$30
Source: Bloomberg
Our Niche | 28
Now What?
Our Niche | 29
Free Fall | 31
SIX FLAGS UNDERPERFORMED THE MARKET FOR THE ENTIRETY OF ITS HISTORY UNTIL
Free Fall | 33
Free Fall | 34
Rest In Peace
Free Fall | 35
Free Fall | 36
Free Fall | 37
500,000,000
400,000,000
300,000,000
200,000,000
100,000,000
1,000,000,000
980,000,000
960,000,000
940,000,000
920,000,000
900,000,000
880,000,000
860,000,000
2008
Source: Company Filings
2009
Free Fall | 39
Stalking Horse?
Investors Speak Up
Free Fall | 42
1,050,000,000
1,000,000,000
950,000,000
900,000,000
850,000,000
$21.50
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0 Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Source: Bloomberg
Free Fall | 44
Cheap Thrill?
Uncovering Value
From the June 30, 2013 issue of Value Investor Insight, reprinted with permission of Value Investor Media, Inc.
Cheap Thrill? | 46
Source: YouTube
Cheap Thrill? | 47
Prestige Investments
Attractive Business Under Temporary Pressure Structurally Defensive Economics High & Stable Barriers to Entry Improving Pricing Power Strengthening Balance Sheet Consistent & Growing Cash Flow
Cheap Thrill? | 48
Cheap Thrill? | 49
Cheap Thrill? | 50
Cheap Thrill? | 52
Cheap Thrill? | 53
5.0x
$400 $350 4.0x $300 3.0x $250 $200 2.0x $150 $100 1.0x $50 0.0x 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014e* 2015e* 2016e* $-
So from a bond perspective, we do continue to monitor the markets and will look to take those 9-1/8% cost bonds out as soon as it makes financial and economic sense. I dont know that you would see us do a one-time distribution. I dont think wed see a lot of value on that, but more so think about a step-function opportunity much like you saw a year ago. - Brian C. Witherow, CFO, Third Quarter 2013 Earnings Call
Cheap Thrill? | 56
$460
Step-up in Distribution Driven by 2014 Refinancing? Step-up in Distribution Driven by Decrease in Leverage Ratios
$4.00
$3.50
$440
$3.00
$420
$2.50
$340
$0.50
$320
$300 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 2014e* 2015e* 2016e*
$-
Step-Up In Distribution?
$4.00
Step-Up In Distribution
$3.50
$2.80
$3.00
$2.50
$15
$10 $5 $2007 2008 2009 2010 FUN Stock Price (right axis)
$-
Whats it Worth?
IF FUN CAN GENERATE SALES GROWTH OF 2% - 4%, WE EXPECT ADJUSTED EBITDA TO REACH $450 - $490 MILLION BY 2016 ASSUMING LITTLE MARGIN EXPANSION
Bear 2016 Adjusted EBITDA Target Multiple Value per Unit $450 8x $40
Plus: 2014-2016 Distributions Total Value per Unit Premium to Current Price
$10 $50 5%
IF MANAGEMENT PAYS OUT 90% OF CASH FLOW NET OF FIXED CHARGES, WE EXPECT DISTRIBUTIONS TO RANGE FROM $3.50 TO $4.00 BY 2016
Bear Distributable Cash Flow Distribution per Unit Target Yield 220 $3.50 8%
$45
$10 $55 15%
$55
$10 $65 35%
$65
$11 $75 65%
Security Cash & Equivalents Vodafone Group Cedar Fair Hospira Western Union Microsoft Nestle Apple Oaktree Capital Group Nuveen Municipal Value Total for Top 10
% of Assets 28.9% 6.9% 5.6% 5.5% 5.3% 5.1% 5.1% 5.0% 4.6% 4.5% 75.5%
2%
0.8% 0.5%
-2% -2.3% -3% -3.1% -4% Oct-12 Feb-13 May-13 High Quality Portfolio MSCI All World Jun-13 Aug-13
1Past
4.0%
3.0% 2.6%
2.0%
Up Capture: 81.9%
1Past
Monthly Performance1
Performance History
Jan
2013 2012 6.7% -
Feb Mar
0.4% 3.2% -
Apr May
-
Jun
-
Jul
3.3% -
Aug
0.5% -
Sep
3.2% 1.4%
Oct
3.2%
Nov
Dec
2.8%
Year
24.6% 2.2%
YTD: One Year: Since Inception2:
BAM HQ
MSCI AW
-0.8% -1.2%
$12,729 $12,328
$12,500
$12,000
$11,500
$11,000
$10,500
$10,000
$9,500 Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
MSCI World
performance is not indicative of future results. Inception is August 31, 2012. All periods greater than one year are annualized.
Sound Advice
Any Questions?
Contact Information
Contact Information | 69
Disclaimer
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. This material has been prepared solely for the purposes of illustration and discussion. Broyhill Asset Management is the marketing name for the investment management business conducted by Broyhill Asset Management, LLC. and its affiliates. Broyhill Asset Management, LLC is an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Under no circumstances should the information contained herein be used or considered as an offer to sell, or solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Any security offering is subject to certain investor eligibility criteria as detailed in the applicable offering documents. The information contained herein is confidential and may not be reproduced or circulated in whole or in part. The information is in summary form for convenience of presentation, it is not complete and should not be relied upon as such. Any information, data, statement, opinions, or projections made herein may contain certain forward looking statements, projections, and information that are based on the beliefs of Broyhill Asset Management as well as assumptions made by, and information currently available to, Broyhill Asset Management. Such statements reflect the view of Broyhill Asset Management with respect to future events and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions (including, but not limited to, changes in general economic and business conditions, interest rate and securities market fluctuations, competition from within and without the investment industry, new products and services in the investment industry, changes in customer profiles, and changes in laws and regulations applicable to Broyhill Asset Management). Should one or more of these other risks or uncertainties materialize, or should underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those described herein. All information, including performance information, has been prepared in good faith; there are no representations or warranty expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness, of the information, and nothing herein shall be relied upon as a promise or representation as to the past or future performance. This material may include information that is based, in part or in full, on hypothetical assumptions, models, and/or other analysis (which may not necessarily be described herein). No representations or warranty are made as to the reasonableness of any such assumptions, models, or analysis. The information set forth herein was gathered from various sources which are believed, but not guaranteed, to be reliable. Unless stated otherwise, any opinions expressed herein are current as of the date hereof and are subject to change at any time. Accordingly, neither Broyhill Asset Management nor its principals or affiliates make any representations as to the timeliness of any information in this presentation.
Disclaimer | 70