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Independent Statistics & Analysis

U.S. Energy Information Administration


Drilling Productivity Report
For key tight oil and shale gas regions

November 2013

Bakken

Marcellus

Niobrara

Permian

Haynesville

Eagle Ford

The six regions analyzed in this report accounted for nearly 90% of domestic oil production growth and virtually all domestic natural gas production growth during 2011-12.

Contents
Year-over-year summary Bakken Eagle Ford Haynesville Marcellus Niobrara Permian Explanatory notes Sources 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Year-over-year summary
Drilling Productivity Report
New-well oil production per rig
barrels/day December-2012 1,000 December-2013 6,000 5,000 750 4,000 500 3,000 2,000 250 1,000 0
Bakken Eagle Ford Haynesville Marcellus Niobrara Permian

November 2013
drilling data through October projected production through December

New-well gas production per rig


thousand cubic feet/day December-2012 December-2013

0
Bakken Eagle Ford Haynesville Marcellus Niobrara Permian

Legacy oil production change


thousand barrels/day
Bakken Eagle Ford Haynesville Marcellus Niobrara Permian

Legacy gas production change


million cubic feet/day
Bakken Eagle Ford Haynesville Marcellus Niobrara Permian

0 (10) (20) (30) (40) (50) (60) December-2012 (70) December-2013

0 (50) (100) (150) (200) (250) (300) (350) (400) (450) December-2012 December-2013

Indicated monthly change in oil production (Dec vs. Nov)


thousand barrels/day December-2012 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5
Bakken Eagle Ford Haynesville Marcellus Niobrara Permian

Indicated monthly change in gas production (Dec vs. Nov)


million cubic feet/day December-2012 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400
Bakken Eagle Ford Haynesville Marcellus Niobrara Permian

December-2013

December-2013

Oil production
thousand barrels/day December-2012 2,000 1,600 1,200 800 December-2013

Natural gas production


million cubic feet/day December-2012 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 December-2013

400
0
Bakken Eagle Ford Haynesville Marcellus Niobrara Permian

Bakken

Eagle Ford Haynesville

Marcellus

Niobrara

Permian

U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report

Bakken
barrels/day month over month

November 2013
drilling data through October projected production through December

Drilling Productivity Report

Oil +15

496 481
barrels/day

December November

Monthly additions from one average rig


Rig count rigs
250

December November

470 462

Gas +8

thousand cubic feet/day

thousand cubic feet/day month over month

Bakken New-well oil production per rig


barrels/day 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Bakken New-well gas production per rig


thousand cubic feet/day 3,600 3,000 2,400 1,800

Rig count rigs


250 200 150 100 50 0

new-well oil production per rig rig count


200 150 100 50 0

new-well gas production per rig rig count

1,200 600 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Bakken Legacy oil production change


thousand barrels/day 0 (10) (20) (30) (40) (50) (60) (70) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Bakken Legacy gas production change


million cubic feet/day 0 (10) (20) (30) (40) (50) (60) 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Bakken Indicated change in oil production (Dec vs. Nov)


thousand barrels/day 100

Bakken Indicated change in natural gas production (Dec vs. Nov)


million cubic feet/day 100

+89

-63

+26

+84

-57

+27

50

50

0 Nov 976 Mbbl/d Production from new wells Legacy production change Net change Dec 1,002 Mbbl/d

0
Nov 1,081 MMcf/d Production from new wells Legacy production change Net change Dec 1,108 MMcf/d

Bakken Oil production


thousand barrels/day 1,000 800

thousand barrels/day month over month

Oil +26

Bakken Natural gas production


million cubic feet/day 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000

million cubic feet/day month over month

Gas +27

600
400 200 0 2007

2,000 1,000

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

0 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013
3

U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report

Eagle Ford
barrels/day month over month

November 2013
drilling data through October projected production through December

Drilling Productivity Report

Oil +8

413 405
barrels/day

December November

Monthly additions from one average rig


Rig count rigs
350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

December November

1,214 1,213

Gas +1

thousand cubic feet/day

thousand cubic feet/day month over month

Eagle Ford New-well oil production per rig


barrels/day 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Eagle Ford New-well gas production per rig


thousand cubic feet/day 3,600 3,000 2,400 1,800 1,200 600 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Rig count rigs


350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2013

new-well oil production per rig rig count

new-well gas production per rig rig count

Eagle Ford Legacy oil production change


thousand barrels/day 0 (10) (20) (30) (40) (50) (60) (70) (80) (90) 2007 2008

Eagle Ford Legacy gas production change


million cubic feet/day 0 (50) (100) (150) (200) (250)

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

(300) 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Eagle Ford Indicated change in oil production (Dec vs. Nov)


thousand barrels/day 100

Eagle Ford Indicated change in natural gas production (Dec vs. Nov)
million cubic feet/day +340 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Nov Production 6,055 from MMcf/d new wells

+116

-83

+33

-239

+101

50

0 Nov 1,252 Mbbl/d Production from new wells Legacy production change Net change Dec 1,285 Mbbl/d

Legacy production change

Net change

Dec 6,156 MMcf/d

Eagle Ford Oil production


thousand barrels/day 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2007

thousand barrels/day month over month

Oil +33

Eagle Ford Natural gas production


million cubic feet/day 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2007

million cubic feet/day month over month

Gas +101

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013
4

U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report

Haynesville
barrels/day month over month

November 2013
drilling data through October projected production through December

Drilling Productivity Report

Oil +1

45 44

December November

barrels/day

Monthly additions from one average rig


Rig count rigs
300 250 200 150

December November

5,041 5,018

Gas +23

thousand cubic feet/day

thousand cubic feet/day month over month

Haynesville New-well oil production per rig


barrels/day 1,000

Haynesville New-well gas production per rig


thousand cubic feet/day 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Rig count rigs


300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2013

new-well oil production per rig


800 600 400 200 0 2007

new-well gas production per rig rig count

rig count

100 50 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Haynesville Legacy oil production change


thousand barrels/day 0

Haynesville Legacy gas production change


million cubic feet/day 0 (100)

(1)

(200) (300) (400)

(2)

(500) (600)

(3) 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

(700) 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Haynesville Indicated change in oil production (Dec vs. Nov)


thousand barrels/day 2.0

Haynesville Indicated change in natural gas production (Dec vs. Nov)


million cubic feet/day 250 150 50 -50

+2

-1

+1

+231

-332

-101

1.5
1.0 0.5 0.0 Nov 57 Mbbl/d Production from new wells Legacy production change Net change Dec 58 Mbbl/d

-150
Nov 6,761 MMcf/d Production from new wells Legacy production change Net change Dec 6,661 MMcf/d

Haynesville Oil production


thousand barrels/day 2,000 1,600

thousand barrels/day month over month

Oil +1

Haynesville Natural gas production


million cubic feet/day 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000

million cubic feet/day month over month

Gas -101

1,200
800 400 0 2007

4,000 2,000

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

0 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013
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U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report

Marcellus
barrels/day month over month

November 2013
drilling data through October projected production through December

Drilling Productivity Report

Oil +2

40 38

December November

barrels/day

Monthly additions from one average rig


Rig count rigs
160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

December November

6,038 5,920

Gas +118

thousand cubic feet/day

thousand cubic feet/day month over month

Marcellus New-well oil production per rig


barrels/day 1,000

Marcellus New-well gas production per rig


thousand cubic feet/day 6,000 4,800 3,600 2,400 1,200 0 2007

Rig count rigs


160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2012 2013

new-well oil production per rig


800 600 400 200 0 2007

new-well gas production per rig rig count

rig count

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2008

2009

2010

2011

Marcellus Legacy oil production change


thousand barrels/day 0

Marcellus Legacy gas production change


million cubic feet/day 0 (40)

(1)

(80) (120) (160)

(2)

(3) 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

(200) 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Marcellus Indicated change in oil production (Dec vs. Nov)


thousand barrels/day 4.0

Marcellus Indicated change in natural gas production (Dec vs. Nov)


million cubic feet/day 600 400 200

+4

-1

+3

+593

-182

+411

3.0
2.0 1.0 0.0 Nov 44 Mbbl/d Production from new wells Legacy production change Net change Dec 47 Mbbl/d

0
Nov 12,525 MMcf/d Production from new wells Legacy production change Net change Dec 12,936 MMcf/d

Marcellus Oil production


thousand barrels/day 2,000 1,600

thousand barrels/day month over month

Oil +3

Marcellus Natural gas production


million cubic feet/day 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000

million cubic feet/day month over month

Gas +411

1,200
800 400 0 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

0 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013
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U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report

Niobrara
barrels/day month over month

November 2013
drilling data through October projected production through December

Drilling Productivity Report

Oil +6

317 311
barrels/day

December November

Monthly additions from one average rig


Rig count rigs
140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

December November

995 1,049

Gas -54

thousand cubic feet/day

thousand cubic feet/day month over month

Niobrara New-well oil production per rig


barrels/day 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Niobrara New-well gas production per rig


thousand cubic feet/day 3,600 3,000 2,400 1,800 1,200 600 0 2007

Rig count rigs


140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

new-well oil production per rig rig count

new-well gas production per rig rig count


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Niobrara Legacy oil production change


thousand barrels/day 0 (5) (10) (15) (20) (25) 2007

Niobrara Legacy gas production change


million cubic feet/day 0 (50) (100) (150) (200) (250) 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Niobrara Indicated change in oil production (Dec vs. Nov)


thousand barrels/day 30 20 10 0 Nov 280 Mbbl/d Production from new wells Legacy production change Net change Dec 287 Mbbl/d

Niobrara Indicated change in natural gas production (Dec vs. Nov)


million cubic feet/day 100 50 0 -50

+30

-23

+7

+95

-152

-57

-100
Nov 4,632 MMcf/d Production from new wells Legacy production change Net change Dec 4,575 MMcf/d

Niobrara Oil production


thousand barrels/day 1,000 800

thousand barrels/day month over month

Oil +7

Niobrara Natural gas production


million cubic feet/day 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000

million cubic feet/day month over month

Gas -57

600
400 200 0 2007

2,000 1,000

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

0 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013
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U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report

Permian
barrels/day month over month

November 2013
drilling data through October projected production through December

Drilling Productivity Report

Oil 0

79 79

December November

barrels/day

Monthly additions from one average rig


Rig count rigs
600 500 400 300 200 100 0

December November

176 175

thousand cubic feet/day

thousand cubic feet/day month over month

Gas +1

Permian New-well oil production per rig


barrels/day 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Permian New-well gas production per rig


thousand cubic feet/day 3,600 3,000 2,400 1,800 1,200 600 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Rig count rigs


600 500

new-well oil production per rig rig count

new-well gas production per rig rig count

400 300 200 100 0 2013

Permian Legacy oil production change


thousand barrels/day 0

Permian Legacy gas production change


million cubic feet/day 0 (20) (40) (60) (80) (100) (120)

(5)
(10) (15) (20) (25) (30) (35) (40) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

(140) 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Permian Indicated change in oil production (Dec vs. Nov)


thousand barrels/day 30 20 10 0 Nov 1,340 Mbbl/d Production from new wells Legacy production change Net change Dec 1,340 Mbbl/d

Permian Indicated change in natural gas production (Dec vs. Nov)


million cubic feet/day 80 60 40 20

+35

-35

+0

+78

-78

+0

0
Nov 5,045 MMcf/d Production from new wells Legacy production change Net change Dec 5,046 MMcf/d

Permian Oil production


thousand barrels/day 1,600

thousand barrels/day month over month

Oil +0

Permian Natural gas production


million cubic feet/day 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2007 2008

million cubic feet/day month over month

Gas +0

1,400 1,200 1,000 800


600 400 200 0 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013
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U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report

Explanatory notes
Drilling Productivity Report

November 2013

The Drilling Productivity Report uses recent data on the total number of drilling rigs in operation along with estimates of drilling productivity and estimated changes in production from existing oil and natural gas wells to provide estimated changes in oil and natural gas production for six key fields. EIAs approach does not distinguish between oil-directed rigs and gas-directed rigs because once a well is completed it may produce both oil and gas; more than half of the wells do that.

Monthly additions from one average rig Monthly additions from one average rig represent EIAs estimate of an average rigs1 contribution to production of oil and natural gas from new wells.2 The estimation of new-well production per rig uses several months of recent historical data on total production from new wells for each field divided by the region's monthly rig count, lagged by two months.3 Current- and next-month values are listed on the top header. The month-over-month change is listed alongside, with +/- signs and color-coded arrows to highlight the growth or decline in oil (brown) or natural gas (blue).

New-well oil/gas production per rig Charts present historical estimated monthly additions from one average rig coupled with the number of total drilling rigs as reported by Baker Hughes.
Legacy oil and natural gas production change Charts present EIAs estimates of total oil and gas production changes from all the wells other than the new wells. The trend is dominated by the well depletion rates, but other circumstances can influence the direction of the change. For example, well freeze-offs or hurricanes can cause production to significantly decline in any given month, resulting in a production increase the next month when production simply returns to normal levels.

Projected change in monthly oil/gas production Charts present the combined effects of new-well production and changes to legacy production. Total new-well production is offset by the anticipated change in legacy production to derive the net change in production. The estimated change in production does not reflect external circumstances that can affect the actual rates, such as infrastructure constraints, bad weather, or shut-ins based on environmental or economic issues.
Oil/gas production Charts present oil and natural gas production from both new and legacy wells since 2007. This production is based on all wells reported to the state oil and gas agencies. Where state data are not immediately available, EIA estimates the production based on estimated changes in new-well oil/gas production and the corresponding legacy change.

Footnotes: 1. The monthly average rig count used in this report is calculated from weekly data on total oil and gas rigs reported by Baker Hughes 2. A new well is defined as one that began producing for the first time in the previous month. Each well belongs to the new-well category for only one month. Reworked and recompleted wells are excluded from the calculation. 3. Rig count data lag production data because EIA has observed that the best predictor of the number of new wells beginning production in a given month is the count of rigs in operation two months earlier.

U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report

Sources
Drilling Productivity Report

November 2013

The data used in the preparation of this report come from the following sources. EIA is solely responsible for the analysis, calculations, and conclusions. Drilling Info (http://www.drillinginfo.com) Source of production, permit, and spud data for counties associated with this report. Source of real-time rig location to estimate new wells spudded and completed throughout the United States. Baker Hughes (http://www.bakerhughes.com) Source of rig and well counts by county, state, and basin. North Dakota Oil and Gas Division (https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas) Source of well production, permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in North Dakota Railroad Commission of Texas (http://www.rrc.state.tx.us) Source of well production, permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in Texas Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (https://www.paoilandgasreporting.state.pa.us/publicreports/Modules/Welcome/Welcome.aspx) Source of well production, permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in Pennsylvania West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection (http://www.dep.wv.gov/oil-andgas/Pages/default.aspx) Source of well production, permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in West Virginia Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (http://cogcc.state.co.us) Source of well production, permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in Colorado

Wyoming Oil and Conservation Commission (http://wogcc.state.wy.us ) Source of well production, permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in Wyoming
Louisiana Department of Natural Resources (http://dnr.louisiana.gov) Source of well production, permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in Louisiana

U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report

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