U.S. Energy Information Administration Drilling Productivity Report. For Key Tight Oil and Shale Gas Regions

Independent Statistics & Analysis
U.S. Energy Information Administration

Drilling Productivity Report
For key tight oil and shale gas regions
November 2013
Bakken
Marcellus
Niobrara
Permian
Haynesville
Eagle Ford
The six regions analyzed in this report accounted for nearly 90% of domestic oil production growth and virtually all domestic natural gas production growth during 2011-12.
Contents
Year-over-year summary Bakken Eagle Ford Haynesville Marcellus Niobrara Permian Explanatory notes Sources 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Year-over-year summary
New-well oil production per rig
barrels/day December-2012 1,000 December-2013 6,000 5,000 750 4,000 500 3,000 2,000 250 1,000 0
Bakken Eagle Ford Haynesville Marcellus Niobrara Permian
November 2013
drilling data through October projected production through December
New-well gas production per rig

thousand cubic feet/day December-2012 December-2013
0
Legacy oil production change

thousand barrels/day
Legacy gas production change

million cubic feet/day
0 (10) (20) (30) (40) (50) (60) December-2012 (70) December-2013
0 (50) (100) (150) (200) (250) (300) (350) (400) (450) December-2012 December-2013
Indicated monthly change in oil production (Dec vs. Nov)

thousand barrels/day December-2012 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5
Indicated monthly change in gas production (Dec vs. Nov)

million cubic feet/day December-2012 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400
December-2013
December-2013
Oil production
thousand barrels/day December-2012 2,000 1,600 1,200 800 December-2013
Natural gas production

million cubic feet/day December-2012 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 December-2013
400
0
Bakken
Eagle Ford Haynesville
Marcellus
Niobrara
Permian
U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report
Bakken
barrels/day month over month
November 2013
Oil +15
496 481
barrels/day
December November
Monthly additions from one average rig

Rig count rigs
250
December November
470 462
Gas +8
thousand cubic feet/day
thousand cubic feet/day month over month
Bakken New-well oil production per rig

barrels/day 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Bakken New-well gas production per rig

thousand cubic feet/day 3,600 3,000 2,400 1,800
Rig count rigs

250 200 150 100 50 0
new-well oil production per rig rig count

200 150 100 50 0
new-well gas production per rig rig count
1,200 600 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Bakken Legacy oil production change

thousand barrels/day 0 (10) (20) (30) (40) (50) (60) (70) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Bakken Legacy gas production change

million cubic feet/day 0 (10) (20) (30) (40) (50) (60) 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Bakken Indicated change in oil production (Dec vs. Nov)

thousand barrels/day 100
Bakken Indicated change in natural gas production (Dec vs. Nov)

million cubic feet/day 100
+89
-63
+26
+84
-57
+27
50
50
0 Nov 976 Mbbl/d Production from new wells Legacy production change Net change Dec 1,002 Mbbl/d
0
Nov 1,081 MMcf/d Production from new wells Legacy production change Net change Dec 1,108 MMcf/d
Bakken Oil production

thousand barrels/day 1,000 800
thousand barrels/day month over month
Oil +26
Bakken Natural gas production

million cubic feet/day 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000
million cubic feet/day month over month
Gas +27
600
400 200 0 2007
2,000 1,000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
3
Eagle Ford
November 2013
Oil +8
413 405
barrels/day
December November

Rig count rigs
350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
December November
1,214 1,213
Gas +1
Eagle Ford New-well oil production per rig

barrels/day 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Eagle Ford New-well gas production per rig

thousand cubic feet/day 3,600 3,000 2,400 1,800 1,200 600 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Rig count rigs

350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2013
Eagle Ford Legacy oil production change

thousand barrels/day 0 (10) (20) (30) (40) (50) (60) (70) (80) (90) 2007 2008
Eagle Ford Legacy gas production change

million cubic feet/day 0 (50) (100) (150) (200) (250)
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
(300) 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Eagle Ford Indicated change in oil production (Dec vs. Nov)

Eagle Ford Indicated change in natural gas production (Dec vs. Nov)
million cubic feet/day +340 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Nov Production 6,055 from MMcf/d new wells
+116
-83
+33
-239
+101
50
0 Nov 1,252 Mbbl/d Production from new wells Legacy production change Net change Dec 1,285 Mbbl/d
Legacy production change
Net change
Dec 6,156 MMcf/d
Eagle Ford Oil production

thousand barrels/day 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2007
Oil +33
Eagle Ford Natural gas production

million cubic feet/day 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2007
Gas +101
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
4
Haynesville
November 2013
Oil +1
45 44
December November
barrels/day

Rig count rigs
300 250 200 150
December November
5,041 5,018
Gas +23
Haynesville New-well oil production per rig

barrels/day 1,000
Haynesville New-well gas production per rig

thousand cubic feet/day 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Rig count rigs

300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2013
new-well oil production per rig

800 600 400 200 0 2007
rig count
100 50 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Haynesville Legacy oil production change

Haynesville Legacy gas production change

million cubic feet/day 0 (100)
(1)
(200) (300) (400)
(2)
(500) (600)
(3) 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
(700) 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Haynesville Indicated change in oil production (Dec vs. Nov)

thousand barrels/day 2.0
Haynesville Indicated change in natural gas production (Dec vs. Nov)

million cubic feet/day 250 150 50 -50
+2
-1
+1
+231
-332
-101
1.5
1.0 0.5 0.0 Nov 57 Mbbl/d Production from new wells Legacy production change Net change Dec 58 Mbbl/d
-150
Haynesville Oil production

thousand barrels/day 2,000 1,600
Oil +1
Haynesville Natural gas production

Gas -101
1,200
800 400 0 2007
4,000 2,000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
5
Marcellus
November 2013
Oil +2
40 38
December November
barrels/day

Rig count rigs
160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
December November
6,038 5,920
Gas +118
Marcellus New-well oil production per rig

barrels/day 1,000
Marcellus New-well gas production per rig

thousand cubic feet/day 6,000 4,800 3,600 2,400 1,200 0 2007
Rig count rigs

160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2012 2013
new-well oil production per rig

800 600 400 200 0 2007
rig count
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2008
2009
2010
2011
Marcellus Legacy oil production change

Marcellus Legacy gas production change

million cubic feet/day 0 (40)
(1)
(80) (120) (160)
(2)
(3) 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
(200) 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Marcellus Indicated change in oil production (Dec vs. Nov)

thousand barrels/day 4.0
Marcellus Indicated change in natural gas production (Dec vs. Nov)

million cubic feet/day 600 400 200
+4
-1
+3
+593
-182
+411
3.0
2.0 1.0 0.0 Nov 44 Mbbl/d Production from new wells Legacy production change Net change Dec 47 Mbbl/d
0
Marcellus Oil production

thousand barrels/day 2,000 1,600
Oil +3
Marcellus Natural gas production

million cubic feet/day 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000
Gas +411
1,200
800 400 0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
6
Niobrara
November 2013
Oil +6
317 311
barrels/day
December November

Rig count rigs
140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
December November
995 1,049
Gas -54
Niobrara New-well oil production per rig

barrels/day 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Niobrara New-well gas production per rig

thousand cubic feet/day 3,600 3,000 2,400 1,800 1,200 600 0 2007
Rig count rigs

140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Niobrara Legacy oil production change

thousand barrels/day 0 (5) (10) (15) (20) (25) 2007
Niobrara Legacy gas production change

million cubic feet/day 0 (50) (100) (150) (200) (250) 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Niobrara Indicated change in oil production (Dec vs. Nov)

thousand barrels/day 30 20 10 0 Nov 280 Mbbl/d Production from new wells Legacy production change Net change Dec 287 Mbbl/d
Niobrara Indicated change in natural gas production (Dec vs. Nov)

million cubic feet/day 100 50 0 -50
+30
-23
+7
+95
-152
-57
-100
Niobrara Oil production

thousand barrels/day 1,000 800
Oil +7
Niobrara Natural gas production

Gas -57
600
400 200 0 2007
2,000 1,000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
7
Permian
November 2013
Oil 0
79 79
December November
barrels/day

Rig count rigs
600 500 400 300 200 100 0
December November
176 175
Gas +1
Permian New-well oil production per rig

barrels/day 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Permian New-well gas production per rig

thousand cubic feet/day 3,600 3,000 2,400 1,800 1,200 600 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Rig count rigs

600 500
400 300 200 100 0 2013
Permian Legacy oil production change

Permian Legacy gas production change

million cubic feet/day 0 (20) (40) (60) (80) (100) (120)
(5)
(10) (15) (20) (25) (30) (35) (40) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
(140) 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Permian Indicated change in oil production (Dec vs. Nov)

thousand barrels/day 30 20 10 0 Nov 1,340 Mbbl/d Production from new wells Legacy production change Net change Dec 1,340 Mbbl/d
Permian Indicated change in natural gas production (Dec vs. Nov)

million cubic feet/day 80 60 40 20
+35
-35
+0
+78
-78
+0
0
Permian Oil production

thousand barrels/day 1,600
Oil +0
Permian Natural gas production

million cubic feet/day 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2007 2008
Gas +0
1,400 1,200 1,000 800

600 400 200 0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
8
Explanatory notes
November 2013
The Drilling Productivity Report uses recent data on the total number of drilling rigs in operation along with estimates of drilling productivity and estimated changes in production from existing oil and natural gas wells to provide estimated changes in oil and natural gas production for six key fields. EIAs approach does not distinguish between oil-directed rigs and gas-directed rigs because once a well is completed it may produce both oil and gas; more than half of the wells do that.
Monthly additions from one average rig Monthly additions from one average rig represent EIAs estimate of an average rigs1 contribution to production of oil and natural gas from new wells.2 The estimation of new-well production per rig uses several months of recent historical data on total production from new wells for each field divided by the region's monthly rig count, lagged by two months.3 Current- and next-month values are listed on the top header. The month-over-month change is listed alongside, with +/- signs and color-coded arrows to highlight the growth or decline in oil (brown) or natural gas (blue).
New-well oil/gas production per rig Charts present historical estimated monthly additions from one average rig coupled with the number of total drilling rigs as reported by Baker Hughes.
Legacy oil and natural gas production change Charts present EIAs estimates of total oil and gas production changes from all the wells other than the new wells. The trend is dominated by the well depletion rates, but other circumstances can influence the direction of the change. For example, well freeze-offs or hurricanes can cause production to significantly decline in any given month, resulting in a production increase the next month when production simply returns to normal levels.
Projected change in monthly oil/gas production Charts present the combined effects of new-well production and changes to legacy production. Total new-well production is offset by the anticipated change in legacy production to derive the net change in production. The estimated change in production does not reflect external circumstances that can affect the actual rates, such as infrastructure constraints, bad weather, or shut-ins based on environmental or economic issues.
Oil/gas production Charts present oil and natural gas production from both new and legacy wells since 2007. This production is based on all wells reported to the state oil and gas agencies. Where state data are not immediately available, EIA estimates the production based on estimated changes in new-well oil/gas production and the corresponding legacy change.
Footnotes: 1. The monthly average rig count used in this report is calculated from weekly data on total oil and gas rigs reported by Baker Hughes 2. A new well is defined as one that began producing for the first time in the previous month. Each well belongs to the new-well category for only one month. Reworked and recompleted wells are excluded from the calculation. 3. Rig count data lag production data because EIA has observed that the best predictor of the number of new wells beginning production in a given month is the count of rigs in operation two months earlier.
Sources
November 2013
The data used in the preparation of this report come from the following sources. EIA is solely responsible for the analysis, calculations, and conclusions. Drilling Info (http://www.drillinginfo.com) Source of production, permit, and spud data for counties associated with this report. Source of real-time rig location to estimate new wells spudded and completed throughout the United States. Baker Hughes (http://www.bakerhughes.com) Source of rig and well counts by county, state, and basin. North Dakota Oil and Gas Division (https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas) Source of well production, permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in North Dakota Railroad Commission of Texas (http://www.rrc.state.tx.us) Source of well production, permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in Texas Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (https://www.paoilandgasreporting.state.pa.us/publicreports/Modules/Welcome/Welcome.aspx) Source of well production, permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in Pennsylvania West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection (http://www.dep.wv.gov/oil-andgas/Pages/default.aspx) Source of well production, permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in West Virginia Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (http://cogcc.state.co.us) Source of well production, permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in Colorado
Wyoming Oil and Conservation Commission (http://wogcc.state.wy.us ) Source of well production, permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in Wyoming
Louisiana Department of Natural Resources (http://dnr.louisiana.gov) Source of well production, permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in Louisiana
10

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Independent Statistics & Analysis

U.S. Energy Information Administration

New-well gas production per rig

Legacy oil production change

Legacy gas production change

0 (10) (20) (30) (40) (50) (60) December-2012 (70) December-2013

Indicated monthly change in oil production (Dec vs. Nov)

Indicated monthly change in gas production (Dec vs. Nov)

Natural gas production

Eagle Ford Haynesville

U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report

Drilling Productivity Report

Monthly additions from one average rig

thousand cubic feet/day

thousand cubic feet/day month over month

Bakken New-well oil production per rig

Bakken New-well gas production per rig

Rig count rigs

new-well oil production per rig rig count

new-well gas production per rig rig count

1,200 600 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Bakken Legacy oil production change

Bakken Legacy gas production change

Bakken Indicated change in oil production (Dec vs. Nov)

Bakken Indicated change in natural gas production (Dec vs. Nov)

Bakken Oil production

thousand barrels/day month over month

Bakken Natural gas production

million cubic feet/day month over month

U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report

Drilling Productivity Report

Monthly additions from one average rig

thousand cubic feet/day

thousand cubic feet/day month over month

Eagle Ford New-well oil production per rig

Eagle Ford New-well gas production per rig

Rig count rigs

new-well oil production per rig rig count

new-well gas production per rig rig count

Eagle Ford Legacy oil production change

Eagle Ford Legacy gas production change

Eagle Ford Indicated change in oil production (Dec vs. Nov)

Legacy production change

Dec 6,156 MMcf/d

Eagle Ford Oil production

thousand barrels/day month over month

Eagle Ford Natural gas production

million cubic feet/day month over month

U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report

Drilling Productivity Report

Monthly additions from one average rig

thousand cubic feet/day

thousand cubic feet/day month over month

Haynesville New-well oil production per rig

Haynesville New-well gas production per rig

Rig count rigs

new-well oil production per rig

new-well gas production per rig rig count

100 50 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Haynesville Legacy oil production change

Haynesville Legacy gas production change

(200) (300) (400)

Haynesville Indicated change in oil production (Dec vs. Nov)