lukushlma n ulsasLer and

lmpllcauons for Puman PealLh

AssessmenL of Low uose 8adlauon Lxposure
!ames . Seward, Mu M lACCLM
Cllnlcal rofessor of Medlclne uCSl

resenLed aL uS-!apan 8oundLable
CcLober 24, 2013
k|sk Assessment

Pazard ldenucauon
uose-8esponse
Lxposure AssessmenL
8lsk CharacLerlzauon

k|sk Management

8lsk Lvaluauon
Cpuon AssessmenL
Cpuon lmplemenLauon
MonlLorlng and 8evlew



k|sk
Commun|canon
1he k|sk arad|gm
Core Concepts in Radiation Exposure
Equivalent Dose measures the biological damage
potential and health risk from radiation
Equivalent dose is measured in Sieverts (Sv)
Low dose is <0.1 Sv (100 mSv)
naLural 8ackground 8adlauon
Natura| background rad|anon dose approx 2 mSv]year
(range 1-10 mSv) w|thout known hea|th eects
3
2.3 mSv 0.38 mSv
3
Average naLural+ Man-made
8ackground uose (uSA) 6 mSv


LsLabllshed Puman Cancer 1hreshold 100 mSv


laLal AcuLe uose (Lu-30) 4000 mSv


____ L|near No 1hresho|d
( n|gh Lnergy)

._._._ L|near No 1hresho|d
(Low Lnergy)

_ _ _ _ L|near uadranc
(|eukem|as)

.... L|near w|th
1hresho|d
uncerLalnLy of dose response relauonshlp
for radlauon-lnduced cancers
Source: 8Ll8 vll
7
Linear No-Threshold Hypothesis (LNT) for
Cancer Causation
uS nauonal Academy of Sclence (8Ll8 vll):
ulmculL Lo evaluaLe cancer rlsk aL less Lhan 100 mSv"
8lsk would conunue aL lower doses wlLhouL
Lhreshold"
SmallesL dose has poLenual Lo cause small lncrease
ln rlsk"
redlcLs 1 person ln 100 geLs cancer from
dose> 100 mSv
Lrrs on safe slde
8
Concerns abouL Lhe Llnear no
1hreshold Approach
SLudles of areas wlLh hlgher background
radlauon show no lncreased cancer raLes
8lologlc repalr may reduce rlsk
unSCLA8: does noL recommend muluplylng low dose by
large numbers of lndlvlduals Lo esumaLe numbers of radlauon-
lnduced healLh eecLs ."
Lxample: 100 SleverLs:
LecL of 1 Sv Lo 100 people =.001Sv Lo 100,000 people

LsumaLes of rlsk should be llmlLed
Lo lndlvlduals recelvlng a dose of
30 mSv ln one year
or a llfeume dose of 100 mSv
ln addluon Lo naLural background."


1he PealLh hyslcs SocleLy
____ L|near No 1hresho|d
( n|gh Lnergy)

._._._ L|near No 1hresho|d
Low Lnergy)

_ _ _ _ L|near uadranc
(|eukem|as)

.... L|near w|th 1hresho|d

Puman Lpldemlology Shows lncreased
Cancer 8lsk Above 100 mSv
Modled from: 8Ll8 vll
?


100 mSv
11
PealLh Concerns for
>20,000 lukushlma Workers
no 8ad-relaLed faLallues or deLermlnlsuc eecLs
seen acuLely
Less Lhan 1 recelve doses> 100 mSv
uncerLalnLy of dose measuremenLs
Small pro[ecLed lncreased rlsk for
leukemlas and solld Lumors
sychologlcal concerns
Cngolng exposure poLenual
PealLh monlLorlng
12
8adlo-lodlne Lxposures near lukushlma
much lower Lhan Chernobyl
WPC esumaLes Lhyrold cancer rlsk of mosL hlghly
exposed female lnfanL lncreases by 0.3
(from 0.73 Lo 1.23 llfeume rlsk)
WPC rellmlnary uose 8econsLrucuon
Whole 8ody-All key 8adlolsoLopes
Plgh Areas: 10-30 mSv eecuve dose-mosLly exLernal
Lower areas: 1-10 mSv eecuve dose-mosLly lnLernal
!apanese lood 8adloacuvlLy SLandards
Plghly roLecuve
13
< 100 8q/kg
~0.073 mSv dose Lo !apanese consumer eaung sh for a year
aL maxlmal regulaLory llmlL
naLurally occurrlng radlauon ln sh (
210
o ,
40
k ) a greaLer rlsk
Llfeume Cancer MorLallLy 8lsk per
8ecquerel
(noL ad[usLed for relauve amounLs ln dlerenL sh)
0.0L+00
3.0L-09
1.0L-08
1.3L-08
2.0L-08
2.3L-08
3.0L-08
3.3L-08
4.0L-08
4.3L-08
3.0L-08
P1C Cs-134 Cs-137 Sr-90 k-40 l-129 o-210 u-238 u-239
Llfeume CA MorLallLy 8lsk (per 8q)
lor sh meeung !apanese food safeLy sLandards radlauon dose
from o-210 far exceeds lukushlma-relaLed dose
Cngolng WaLer Leaks Are an
LnvlronmenLal Concern
noL a slgnlcanL healLh rlsk Lo general populauon
as long as seafood safeLy sLandards are malnLalned
MenLal PealLh lssues
Surveys show hlgh levels of sLress ln adulLs and chlldren
lear of radloacuvlLy and healLh consequences
Long lasung psychologlcal healLh consequences ln
Chernobyl evacuees
Sugmauzauon
8elucLance Lo dlscuss
personal lssues
Conunued dlsplacemenL
Summary of PealLh lmpllcauons for people
llvlng near lukushlma ual-lchl
WPC esumaLes small lncreased radlauon-relaLed
cancer rlsk LhaL may be dlmculL Lo measure
greaLesL rlsk ls Lhyrold cancer ln lnfanLs
sychologlcal dlsLress ln Lhe local populauon has
been very hlgh
Leaks of conLamlnaLed waLer from Lhe n are noL
llkely Lo be slgnlcanL healLh rlsk
ConLrlbuuon Lo LoLal radloacuve maLerlal ln ocean llkely Lo be small
relauve Lo lnlual dlsasLer
CurrenL food safeLy sLandards are very proLecuve
naLural radlauon ln seafood ls hlgher Lhan conLrlbuuon from n
emlsslons ln markeLable sh