Documenti di Didattica
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Ghizan Saleh
Head, Food and Agriculture Cluster, National Professors Council; and Deputy Vice Chancellor (Research and Innovation), National Defence University of Malaysia, Sungei Besi, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Outline
Food Security Natural Calamities, Disasters and Threats Impact on Agriculture Production and Food Security Important Issues Way forward
Human Security
Military Security Capability of a Nation State to defend itself against and/or avoid military aggression. Border Conflicts Terrorism Coups Riots Invasion Battles and Wars
Human Security
Non-Military Security Cyber Security Environmental Security Water Security Food Security Agriculture is Life Energy Security Health Security
Food Security
Do we learn a lesson from Food Crisis 20072008?
Drastic price increases World price increase 2006 2008; then 2010-2011:
Example (2007-2008): Rice - 217% Wheat 136% Corn 125% Soybeans 107%
Tornadoes Forest Fires* Floods* Blizzards Cyclones/Typhoon/ Hurricanes* Heat Wave * affecting Malaysia
Tsunami* Volcanic Eruption Earthquakes Mudslides Drought* Hail Pests and Diseases*
Natural disasters
385 major disasters in 2010:
China, India, Philippines, US and Indonesia: worst affected 297 000 deaths 217 million people adversely affected US $124 billion in economic damages
Hurricane Katrina
2004
2005
2006
2011
Aceh tsunami
Cyclone Nargis
Natural disasters
Christchurch earthquake 2011 Haiti earthquake 2010 Pakistan Flood 2010 Malaysia?? Johore, East Coast Floods, 2005
Increase in price of other food commodities; sugar, flour, beef, chicken, fish, etc.
Increase in Inflation, by 2.5%.
Future risks
(some examples)
Rise in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events expected due to climate change 50 million people at risk in 2080 due to storm surges and landfall typhoons:
10 million people experienced coastal flooding in 2005 Rise in urbanization and population densities will add to the risks
Impact on agriculture
Source: www.cma.gov.cn
DISASTER
Hurricanes (1995) Hurricanes (2004) Floods (2005) Floods (2006) Hurricanes (1988) Hurricanes (1995) Hurricanes (2007) Hurricanes (2007)
ESTIMATED VALUE
US $12 million US $36.6 million US $54.5 million US $22.5 million JA $1.66 billion US $15 million US $10 million US $16.9 million
Damage to Agriculture
RM 50 million/ year (US$ 15 million/ year) RM 20 million/year RM 30 million/year
83,233
> 25,313
11,361
5,040.8
Source: Department of the Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, Ministry of Interior, USA
Before
After
Direct losses to crops and livestock, and damages to farm land and production facilities:
US$ 9.5 b 8% of Japanese farm output 14% of rice output 5% of fruit and vegetable output Long term damage and effects to health security radiation, etc -- ??
Way forward
Modern food production technologies
Intensive agriculture under controlled environment
New technologies/approaches
Application of GIS technologies: To analyse data/information from climate models to assess disaster risks
Such analysis can inform the design of key infrastructure; help insurers assign a price to low-probability risks with high loss potential
Need to make early warning systems more user friendly: Focus on the needs of target audience/communities More attention on post-disaster issues Reforms to legislation, organisations and policy
E.g.: Establishment of new laws, warning systems in Indonesia after the 2004 tsunami
Need reliable estimates of disaster risks to encourage private sector to invest in risk-transfer tools: Need reliable and transparent data/information collection and verification with strong public good characteristics
FUTURE FARMING
http://gothamgreens.com/our-farm/, www.businessinsider.com/gotham-greens-2011-7#but-theyre-really-a-bargain-on-freshdirect-where-two-packages-go-for-6-18#ixzz1T1Djhfa0
www.cityscapefarms.com/soillessfarming/
James Rakocy, Donald Bailey, Charlie Shultz and Jason Danaher. 2010. The Status of Aquaponics 2010 http://www.greenrightnow.com/weareaustin/2009/05/12/farm-in-a-barrel-raise-fish-and-grow-your-own-organic-vegetables/#more-3707
Stack farm
Plant Factory
http://techon.nikkeibp.co.jp/english/NEWS_EN/20080902/157304/
Way forward
Sustainable food production Organic farming Biofertilizer and bio-pesticide SALM, GAP Precision agriculture Increasing carbon sequestration by increasing soil organic matter (organic amendment and organic fertilizers)
Way forward
Breeding for Crops Adaptable to Factors of Climate Change
- Develop and produce local breeds and varieties - Maintain great genetic diversity of plant varieties and animal breeds, particularly for pest and disease tolerance - Exploit the full potential of biotechnology - Combat bio-terrorism
Way forward
Alternative/ Artificial Foods?? Realise level of Countrys Vulnerability
Good Alarm system for help e.g. USDA Agriculture Disaster Assistance - Adaptive risk management measures - Risk transfer approaches
Agriculture is Life