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World Urbanization Prospects
The 2007 Revision

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) Population Division - Population Estimates and Projections Section www.unpopulation.org
Revision 1, 16 January 2008
World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division
1 2 3 4 5
An urbanizing world Regional trends in urbanization City growth / urban agglomerations Projection methods Methodological challenges
Population Estimates and Projections Section
An Urbanizing World
By the end of 2008 half of the worlds population will live in urban areas.
Global rural and urban population, 1950-2050

6,500 6,000
Urban population
5,500 5,000 4,500 Population (millions) 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Rural population
Source: UN Population Division/DESA, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision, CD-Rom, 2008.
Population in urban areas, 2007

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Population density in Europe, 2000

Source: IIASA, ERD Project

Regional Trends of Urbanization

Developing regions, particularly in Africa and Asia, will contribute the lions share to the growth of the worldwide urban population.
Rural and urban population by development region, 1950-2050

5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000
More developed regions, urban population Less developed regions, urban population More developed regions, rural population Less developed regions, rural population
3,500
Population (millions)
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Percentage of population living in urban areas by geographical regions

100
1950
90
1975
2007
2050
89 84 81
90
Population living in urban areas (percentage)
80 72 70 62 60 51 50 41 41 66 66 61
78 74 72 71 64 62
76
40
39
30
26
24 17
20
15
10
Africa
Asia
Europe
Latin America and the Caribbean
Northern America
Oceania
Percentage of population living in urban areas by geographical regions

100
1950
90
1975
2007
2050
89 84 81
90
Population living in urban areas (percentage)
80 72 70 62 60 51 50 41 41 66 66 61
78 74 72 71 64 62
76
40
39
30
26
24 17
20
15
10
Africa
Asia
Europe
Latin America and the Caribbean
Northern America
Oceania
Contribution of rural and urban population growth to total population growth by development region
100% 90%
22 39 35 34 28 17 13 6
Contribution to total population growth (percentage)
80%
50 47 48 54
42 52
70% 60% 50% 40%

27 31 33
88 72 47 31 35 52 56 59 66 76 81
98 110 124 138 156 179
30% 20% 10% 0%

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1950- 1955- 1960- 1965- 1970- 1975- 1980- 1985- 1990- 1995- 2000- 2005- 2010- 2015- 2020- 2025- 2030- 2035- 2040- 20451955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
More developed regions, urban population More developed regions, rural population
Less developed regions, urban population Less developed regions, rural population
Urban and rural populations by major area, selected periods, 1950-2050

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1950-1975 1975-2007 2007-2025 2025-20
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Africa Asia Europe Latin America and the Caribbean Northern America Oceania
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Africa Asia Europe Latin America and the Caribbean Northern America Oceania
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309 232 126 64 6
592 204 124 63 10
736 2339 170 113 56 12
764 1780 107 87 44 11
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City Growth / Urban Agglomerations

Half of the worlds urban population is living in urban settlements with fewer than 500,000 inhabitants.
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Number of urban agglomerations by size class of settlement

Number of urban agglomerations 500,000 to 1 million.

600 Less developed regions More developed regions 500 500 600
Number of urban agglomerations 1 to 5 million.

80 Less developed regions More developed regions 70 60
Number of urban agglomerations 5 million and more.

Less developed regions More developed regions
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Popul ation of urban agglo merat ions with 10 millio n inhab itants or more
(millions) Urban agglomeration Tokyo,Japan New York-Newark,USA Ciudad de Mexico (Mexico City), Mexico Mumbai (Bombay), India So Paulo, Brazil Delhi, India Shanghai, China Kolkata (Calcutta), India Dhaka, Bangladesh Buenos Aires,Argentina Lo s Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana,USA Karachi,Pakistan AI-Qahirah (Cairo), Egypt Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Osaka-Kobe, Japan Beijing, China Manila, Philippines Moskva (Moscow), Russian FederationP 1975 26.6 15.9 10.7 7.1 9.6 4.4 7.3 7.9 2.2 8.7 8.9 4.0 6.4 7.6 9.8 6.0 5.0 7.6 2007 35.7 19.0 19.0 19.0 18.8 15.9 15.0 14.8 13.5 12.8 12.5 12.1 11.9 11.7 11.3 11.1 11.1 10.5 2025 36.4 20.6 21.0 26.4 21.4 22.5 19.4 20.6 22.0 13.8 13.7 19.1 15.6 13.4 11.4 14.5 14.8 10.5
Average annualrate of change (percentage)

1975-2007 0.92 0.57 1.80 3.08 2.10 4.00 2.24 1.96 5.64 1.19 1.05 3.48 1.91 1.38 0.43 1.91 2.49 0.99 3.21 2007-2025 0.11 0.44 0.55 1.83 0.71 1.92 1.44 1.83 2.72 0.41 0.50 2.52 1.49 0.74 0.04 1.50 1.60 0.04 1.03
o Istanbul,Turkey 10.1 12.1 3.6 p Note: lkben agglomerations are ordered accordingto their populetion size in 2007. u l a t i o n
Projection Methods
Percentage Urban Cities / Urban Agglomerations
Projection methods: Urban population (1)

Census 1
(for instance: 1970) Urban-rural Ratio
Census 2
(for instance: 1980) Urban-rural Ratio
Growth rate of the urban-rural ratio Difference between growth rate of urban and rural population
Step 1: The URR is the basis for interpolation and extrapolation of the urban population. The projection uses the most recent urban-rural growth difference in a logistic equation. The proportion urban reaches its maximum growth rate when the proportion urban is 50% and declines to its asymptotic value of zero when the proportion urban is 100%.
Projection methods: Urban population (2)

Normally, an extrapolation based on a simple logistic curve would imply that the urban-rural growth difference remains constant over the projection period. Empirical evidence shows that this is unrealistic. Step 2: Global Norm A simple model is used to reduce the value of the urban-rural growth difference by calculating a hypothetical urban-rural growth difference (hrur) according to the following formula: Hrur = 0.037623-0.02604 PU (t0); PU(t0) is the proportion urban at the time of the initial census Essentially, this means that with increasing (initial) urbanization, the value of the hypothetical urban-rural growth difference (hrur) decreases. In other words: With growing urbanization the urbanization process slows down!
Projection methods for urban population

Using the Global Norm: Growth rate of the urban-rural ratio versus proportion urban for countries with a population of more than 2 million
.2 1950-2007 observations < 1950 observations hrur (WUP1996-WUP2007) robust reg (1950-2007) All years (including < 2 m.)
-.05 0
RUR (growth rate of the urban-rural ratio) 0 .05 .1 .15
.2
.4 .6 PU (proportion urban)
.8
Projection methods: Urban population

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Challenges
Challenges in estimating and projecting city populations

Practical challenges City names in foreign languages can be easily mixed up (Chinese) Large amount of data (6000+ cities) in time-series
Methodological challenges Definitions change from country to country Definitions change over time (no consistency in time-series) City boundaries are not drawn consistently (some cities include large rural areas, others dont) Neighboring cities may merge into one urban agglomeration Small cities / villages may become huge cities due to special development measures (Shenzhen, airport cities) Reclassification of settlements (from village to town to city)
Human settlement - seen as a process

Reclassification
5
New City Existing City
Village Village New City
Population Growth
New Town Existing Town
Incorporation
Administrative Decision
Foundation
Existing City
Administrative Decision Infrastructure Expansion
Urban Agglomeration
Decline
Village
Population Decline
Urban Sprawl
Challenges: Distribution of countries according to the criteria used in defining urban areas (2005 Revision)
Used in conjunction with other criteria 126 29 112 26 6 2 18 228 Percentage according to sole use 35.5 25.9 1.8 5.7 2.2 2.2 3.1 7.9 1.8 0.4 2.2 2.6 0.9 7.9 100.0 Percentage according to use in conjunction with other criteria 55.3 12.7 49.1 11.4 2.6 0.9 7.9 -
Criterion Administrative Economic Population size/density Urban characteristics Administrative and population Administrative and urban characteristics Economic and population Population and urban characteristics Administrative, economic and population size Administrative, urban characteristics and population Economic, population and urban characteristics Administrative, economic, population size and urban characteristics Entire population No urban population No definition Total number of countries or areas
Sole use 81 59 4 13 5 5 7 18 4 1 5 6 2 18 228
Challenges: Distribution of countries according to the criteria used in defining city populations (2005 Revision)
Criterion
Sole use
Used in conjunction with other criteria
City proper Urban agglomeration

Metropolitan area Capital is urban agglomeration; other cities are city proper, urban agglomerations or metropolitan areas Capital is city proper; other cities are city proper, urban agglomerations or metropolitan areas Capital is metropolitan area; other cities are city proper, urban agglomerations or metropolitan areas Not defined
Total number of countries or areas
109 87 12 8 3 7 2 228
123 103 21 0 0 0 4
World Urbanization Prospects: Publications

Report, including key findings, analytical chapters, and data tables CD-ROM with detailed data tables (EXCEL files) Online-data on Web site (www.unpopulation.org) Wall Charts
Thank You !
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) Population Division - Population and Estimates and Projection Section
www.unpopulation.org
Projection methods: City population (1)

Census 1
(for instance: 1970)
Census 2
(for instance: 1980)
City growth minus urban growth City-urban growth difference RCU
The projection of city populations is similar to the projection of urban populations: Step 1: The city-urban growth difference (RCU) is the difference between the rate of city population growth and the rate of total urban population growth. A logistic regression is used to project this city-urban growth difference.
Projection methods: City population (2)

Normally, an extrapolation based on a simple logistic curve would imply that the city-urban growth difference remains constant over the projection period. Empirical evidence shows that this is unrealistic. Step 2: Dampening of city growth A simple model is used to reduce the value of the city-urban growth difference by using a model that was calibrated on empirical data for dampening city growth. Essentially, this means that with increasing (initial) city size, the value of the projected city-urban growth difference (hrcu) decreases. In other words: Larger cities grow slower!

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World Urbanization Prospects

The 2007 Revision

Revision 1, 16 January 2008

World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision

Population Estimates and Projections Section

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division

Population Estimates and Projections Section

Global rural and urban population, 1950-2050

Population in urban areas, 2007

50,000,001 and over

20,000,001 to 50,000,000 10,000,001 to 20,000,000 2,500,001to 10,000,000

Less than 2,500,001

Population in urban areas, 2050

50,000,001 and over

20,000,001 to 50,000,000 10,000,001 to 20,000,000 2,500,001to 10,000,000

Less than 2,500,001

Population density in Europe, 2000

Source: IIASA, ERD Project

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division

Regional Trends of Urbanization

Population Estimates and Projections Section

Rural and urban population by development region, 1950-2050

Percentage of population living in urban areas by geographical regions

Population living in urban areas (percentage)

Latin America and the Caribbean

Percentage of population living in urban areas by geographical regions

Population living in urban areas (percentage)

Latin America and the Caribbean

Contribution to total population growth (percentage)

70% 60% 50% 40%

98 110 124 138 156 179

30% 20% 10% 0%

-10% -20% -30% -40%

Urban and rural populations by major area, selected periods, 1950-2050

Average annual rate of change

1950-1975 1975-2007 2007-2025 2025-20

1645 2440 528 448 275 24

309 232 126 64 6

592 204 124 63 10

736 2339 170 113 56 12

764 1780 107 87 44 11

1174 1820 2384

..0.11 -1.00 ..0.50 ..0.65

-1. -1. -1. -1. ..0.

..0.41 ..0.06 ..0.02

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division

City Growth / Urban Agglomerations

Population Estimates and Projections Section

by size class of urban settlement,1975,2007 and 2025

to 10 million o 1to 5 million o 500,000 to 1 million o Fewer than 500,000 o Rur

Number of urban agglomerations by size class of settlement

Number of urban agglomerations 500,000 to 1 million.

Number of urban agglomerations 1 to 5 million.

Number of urban agglomerations 5 million and more.

Average annualrate of change (percentage)

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division

Population Estimates and Projections Section

Projection methods: Urban population (1)

Population Estimates and Projections Section

Projection methods: Urban population (2)

Population Estimates and Projections Section

Projection methods for urban population

RUR (growth rate of the urban-rural ratio) 0 .05 .1 .15