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Summary of the medias coverage of the timeline, causes, implications, impact and recommended path forward
September 12, 2009
Table of Contents
Objective and Methodology Global Financial Crisis Timeline of Events Causes and Implications Future Outlook and Recommendations Appendixes
Step 1
Selected 12 publications (e.g., Economist, FT, Wall Street Journal), 8 think tanks
and select sources from other media such as radio
Scanned all sources for coverage of the current global financial crisis between mid
2007 and October 2008 ~100 articles and reports from preferred sources
Step 2
Read ~100 articles and shortlisted them according to the following criteria: Analytical insight Breadth of coverage
~50 Relevant Articles for analysis
Uniqueness of opinion
Step 3
Summarized shortlisted articles and incorporated them into the slides that follow
which cover:
Causes and Implications of the Global Financial Crisis Global Impact Future Outlook and Recommendations
Table of Contents
Objective and Methodology Global Financial Crisis Timeline of Events Causes and Implications Future Outlook and Recommendations Appendixes
12,000
Paulson rejected the possibility of the housing crisis leading to a broader economic crisis
9,000
Paulson shares that the US Treasury has no plans to bailout Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac
Future outlook
0 Jun 07-Jul07
Two hedge funds of Bear Sterns forced to dump assets, due to losses. Bear Stearns funds file for bankruptcy
Federal Reserve reduces the fed fund rates by half percentag e point
US financial crisis affects UBS which confirms loss of USD 18.4 Bn Fed and other central banks share ~USD 40 Bn in special loans to banks
S&P cuts ratings of Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch and Lehman Brothers
Russia, Romania and Ukraine close their stock exchange for few days due to crisis Governments of many countries announce bailouts for their financial institutions Icelands financial crisis grows as all three of its major banks are nationalized
Bank of America buys Merrill Lynch for USD 50 Bn; Bank of China buys 20% stake in Rothschild
Government rescues banks by nationalizin g Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and giving AIG an emergency loan of USD 85 Bn
Market collapse: The property boom led an over-supply of housing and prices could no longer be supported.
Just like the self-perpetuating behavior that led to the rise, the crash was also self-perpetuating. As prices fell, more foreclosures started taking place, increasing the supply of homes on the market. Lenders started to tighten their standards and fewer consumers could qualify for mortgages and help reduce the supply
Note: 1Collateralized Debt Obligations Source: The Giant Pool of Money, NPR News and This American Life Episode, Sep 09, 2008; Crazy crisis may herald the end of new derivative folly, FT, Dec 23, 2007; Rethinking Capital Regulation, WSJ, Aug 23, 2008; Central banks and financial crises, WSJ, Aug 23, 2008; Spooking investors - Financial markets remain on edge because the credit crunch has not been solved, Economist, Oct 25, 2008; Out of the frying pan, Economist, Jun 05, 2008
Role of the Credit Rating Agencies: Many experts blame ratings agencies such
as Moodys, Standard & Poors and Fitch for the crisis because they granted AAA ratings to risky mortgage backed securities (MBS). Profits of ratings agencies grew rapidly over the last decade. Almost all agencies follow an issuer-pays revenue model1, and this poses a potential conflict of interest, which some experts contend led to inappropriately high ratings for risky MBS.
Riskier Investment Decisions by Banks: Some experts blame poor decision-making on the part of banks for the crisis. Banks kept
huge amounts of MBS on their balance sheets in spite of the sub-prime risk involved. They financed these and other risky assets with short-term market borrowing and with a decline in the housing market, banks found it difficult to roll over short-term loans against these MBS and hence were forced to sell the assets at a substantial loss
Mark-to-Market Accounting Rules: Financial regulation such as mark-to-market accounting stipulates that financial firms must treat
potential losses as cash losses. Even though many financial instruments may still yield returns in the future, their current asset price is highly devalued. This concept makes firms ripe for forced liquidation, chases away capital, and leads to further decline in asset values
Misleading Economic Statistics: Some statisticians believe that government statistics (e.g. GDP and unemployment rate) have been
revised over the years to show the best possible picture of the US economy. These experts hold that such revisions in economic statistics are misleading and were used by Wall Street to sell their over-valued products
Note: 1The entity that issues the security is also seeking the rating, and pays the rating agency for the rating Source: New Bank Capital Requirement Helped to Spread Credit Woes, WSJ, Aug 30, 2008; How to Start the Healing Now, WSJ, Oct 01, 2008; Rethinking Capital Regulation, WSJ, Aug 23, 2008; Economy lacked a trusted national leader, Washington Post, Oct 15, 2008; Wall Street: the dark theory, Fortune, Sep 19, 2008; Triple-A Failure, New York Times, Apr 27, 2008
| Copyright 2009 Grail Research, a division of Integreon
Losses to Investors
Both institutional investors and individual
investors have suffered huge losses both in MBS and related products, and in equities Banks alone are reported to have suffered USD 600 Bn of credit-related losses globally. According to IMF estimates, American and European banks are predicted to loose USD 10 trillion of assets
Increasing Unemployment
There have been job cuts in many companies
across various sectors around the globe. This trend has not been limited to the financial sector alone High number of layoffs were announced in the US through September 2008: 111,000 in financial sector, 95,000 in automotive sector, 62,000 in transportation, 51,000 in retail, 28,000 in telecommunications and more in other sectors
Bailouts
Several bailout packages have been announced
by governments around the world to fight the growing financial crisis The US has announced a USD 700 Bn bailout package for its banking sector, Germany announced a bailout package of more than USD 200 Bn and Britain more than USD 500 Bn for this financial crisis (see appendix for more detail on global bailout announcements)
Source: The Giant Pool of Money, NPR News and This American Life Episode, Sep 09, 2008; Off a cliff, Economist, Oct 10, 2008; Market meltdown: Global problem, global cure, Fortune, Oct 06, 2008; Europe to U.S.: You messed up the rescue, too, Fortune, Oct 13, 2008; The end of the beginning, Economist, Oct 16, 2008; When fortune frowned, Economist, Oct 09, 2008; But will it work, Economist, Oct 16, 2008; Yahoo expected to point to advert drop-off, Financial Times, Oct 20, 2008; Indias Jet Airways cuts 1,900 jobs, Oct 16, 2008; U.S. layoffs increase as businesses confront crisis, IHT, Oct 26, 2008
| Copyright 2009 Grail Research, a division of Integreon
By Experts
Source: How to build a better bailout, Fortune, Oct 06, 2008; Why it's stimulus time again, Fortune, Oct 14, 2008; Financial sector in crisis, FT, Sep 10, 2008; A Return to 'Normality'?, WSJ, Sep 03, 2008; Global breakdown: Winners and losers, Fortune, Sep 30, 2008; Market meltdown: Global problem, global cure, Fortune, Oct 06, 2008; A monetary malaise, Economist, Oct 09, 2008; Barclays: Wall Street's new gambler, Fortune Oct 21, 2008
| Copyright 2009 Grail Research, a division of Integreon
Some experts have suggested alternative bail-out plans, such as: Government Loans: Funds allocated for bailout can be used to provide loans (with mortgage securities as collateral) rather than
buying the securities outright. This avoids the complexity of pricing the securities and enables interest from the loans to be returned to taxpayers or used for their benefit Reverse Auction: The government (one buyer) can invite lowest bids from many sellers for different categories of securities Issue T-Bonds Now: The US Treasury should borrow money to pay for the bailout now by issuing 5-year and 10-year notes, since interest rates and the cost of funding the bailout will rise as the economy begins to recover Some experts have also indicated that the real solution is to stabilize employment and hence cash flow. They believe that though the government is infusing liquidity into the market, households can still default on various debt instruments and hence the problem will still remain unsolved
By European Governments
European governments reportedly believe that rather than
buying toxic assets, the government should focus to recapitalize the banks directly in exchange for some control of operations of the banks
Source: The $700 Billion Question: How Much Is That Exotic Security?, Knowledge@Wharton, Oct 01, 2008; How to build a better bailout, Fortune, Oct 06, 2008; Why it's stimulus time again, Fortune, Oct 14, 2008; Financial sector in crisis, FT, Sep 10, 2008; A Return to 'Normality'?, WSJ, Sep 03, 2008; Europe to U.S.: You messed up the rescue, too, Fortune, Oct 13, 2008; Keeping U.S. Financial Markets Competitive And Orderly, Forbes, Mar 31, 2008
| Copyright 2009 Grail Research, a division of Integreon
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Table of Contents
Objective and Methodology Global Financial Crisis Appendixes A: Global Bailout Announcements B: Bailout-GDP Ratio C: Relevant Opinion Articles D: Key Sources
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Bulgaria 5.3 Bn
China 8 Bn 2.2 Bn South Korea 42.2 Bn Japan 6.9 Bn 3.9 Bn Vietnam 0.35 Bn Philippines 0.5 Bn
International Financial Corporation (For banks of poor countries) 3 Bn Russia, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan 10 Bn EBRD, EIB and World Bank (For East European Banks) 66.6 Bn World Bank, ADB, ADC, CABEI and CDB (For Latin America) 90 Bn European Central Bank (For Euro zone) 79.8 Bn China (For SCO Members) 10 Bn
Antigua and Barbuda 0.05 Bn France 39.4 Bn 34.3 Bn Spain 83.7 Bn Italy 15.9 Bn 2.5 Bn Austria 20.7 Bn 9.1 Bn Botswana 1.5 Bn
Qatar 9.4 Bn
Argentina 0.07 Bn
Tanzania 0.7 Bn
Starting with the US financial sector, the crisis soon spread across the globe and into other
Chile 0.85 Bn
In response to the crisis, governments around the world have infused capital to bail out and
stabilize many private banks such as Fortis Bank, Royal Bank of Scotland, etc, and companies in other sectors
0Bn 100Bn
101Bn 250Bn
251Bn 400Bn
Above 400Bn
Company Bailouts
Note: All figures are in USD; Bailout announcements updated on September 12, 2009; Figures only include capital allocated for institutions in the form of equity or debt; 1Loans provided by Institutions such as IMF and World Bank or other countries.
| Copyright 2009 Grail Research, a division of Integreon
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Denmark 5.22%
Romania 13.59%1
Russia 14.17%
US 7.31%
Ireland 48.25%
Mongolia 7.30%1
China 0.18% Japan South 0.14% Korea 4.35% Vietnam 0.39% Philippines 1 0.3%
El Salvador 3.62%1
Antigua and Barbuda 4.08% UK 19.32% Trinidad and Tobago 4.07% France 1.38% Germany 5.12% Serbia 8.09%1 UAE 32.21% Qatar 17.87% Pakistan Kazakhstan 6.48%1 2.95% Seychelles 3.13%1 Indonesia 0.29%1
Spain 5.22%
India 0.14%
Thailand 0.16%
Oman 5.60%
Argentina 0.02%
Botswana 11.57%1
Tanzania 3.37%1
Australia 0.14%
Chile 0.50%
Hungary 20.64%1
Ratio Legend
0% 5%
5% 10%
10% 20%
Above 20%
Company Bailouts
Note: Figures only include capital allocated for institutions in the form of equity or debt; 1Loans provided by institutions such as the IMF and World Bank or other countries; Bailout-GDP Ratio based on World Bank & IMFs Nominal GDP Estimates for 2008.
| Copyright 2009 Grail Research, a division of Integreon
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Poland 51.3 Bn
Kazakhstan 21.1 Bn
Russia 111.5 Bn
Czech Republic 3.3 Bn Slovakia 0.4 Bn Greece 5.1 Bn Turkey 9.8 Bn Cyprus 0.4 Bn
Georgia 1.3Bn South Korea 116.5 Bn Mongolia 0.97 Bn China 2,053.5 Bn India 13.5 Bn
Austria 6.9 Bn US 4,910 Bn Portugal 2.9 Bn Mexico 92.9 Bn Jamaica 0.01 Bn Panama 1.1 Bn UK 30.3 Bn France 34.9 Bn Italy 134.5 Bn Brazil 80 Bn Morocco 1.4 Bn Ethiopia 0.5 Bn Slovenia 2.5 Bn Spain 85.1 Bn
Serbia 1.7 Bn Hungary 6.5 Bn Israel Egypt 5.6 Bn Nigeria 5.4 Bn 4.1 Bn
Bangladesh 0.7 Bn
Malaysia 18.2 Bn Kuwait Kenya 5.2 Bn 11.6 Bn Tanzania 1.3 Bn South Africa 81.2 Bn Sri Lanka 0.14 Bn
Colombia 1.3 Bn
Thailand 43.2 Bn
0Bn 100Bn
101Bn 250Bn
251Bn 400Bn
Above 400Bn
Note: All figures are in USD; Stimulus announcements updated on September 12, 2009.
| Copyright 2009 Grail Research, a division of Integreon
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Poland 9.74%
Kazakhstan 15.95%
Russia 6.93%
Czech Republic 1.53% Slovakia 0.46% Greece 1.42% Turkey 1.24% Cyprus 2.11%
Georgia 10.35%
Austria 1.67% US 34.57% Portugal 1.21% Mexico 8.55% Jamaica 0.07% Panama 4.76% UK 1.15% France 1.22% Italy 5.87% Brazil 4.96% Morocco 1.68% Ethiopia 0.19% Spain 5.31%
Nigeria 1.93%
Bangladesh 0.90%
Malaysia 9.35% Kuwait Kenya 4.62% 33.51% Tanzania 6.44% South Africa 29.32% Sri Lanka 0.35%
Colombia 0.54%
Thailand 16.57%
Slovenia 4.56%
Ratio Legend
0% 5%
5% 10%
10% 20%
Above 20%
Note: All figures are in USD; Stimulus announcements updated on September 12, 2009.
| Copyright 2009 Grail Research, a division of Integreon
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Title
Think the credit crunch is over? Think again Same as it ever was - What do earlier banking crises reveal about America's travails today? How to crack the credit crunch Predicting The U.S. Recovery: Some Leading Indicators Are Better Than Others The U.S. Credit Crisis In Perspective Central banks and financial crises Rethinking Capital Regulation Giant Pool of Money Financial sector in crisis Wharton Faculty Debate the Impact of the Financial Crisis Wall Street: The dark theory "Constructing a Financial Perfect Storm" by Jagadeesh Gokhale Global breakdown: Winners and losers The $700 Billion Question: How Much Is That Exotic Security? How to Start the Healing Now Blocked pipes - When banks find it hard to borrow, so do the rest of us How to build a better bailout A monetary malaise Off a cliff Europe to U.S.: You messed up the rescue, too The end of the beginning? Analysis: Economy lacked a trusted national leader We can beat this crisis Spooking investors - Financial markets remain on edge because the credit crunch has not been solved
Source
Fortune Economist Fortune TD Bank Financial Group Forbes Wall Street Journal Wall Street Journal This American Life (and NPR News) Financial Times Knowledge@Wharton Fortune Cato Institute Fortune Knowledge@Wharton Wall Street Journal Economist Fortune Economist Economist Fortune Economist Washington Post Fortune
Links
http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/17/news/economy/eavis_creditcrunch.fortune/index.htm http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10496807 http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/27/news/fed-information.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008032911 http://www.td.com/economics/special/bc0508_usecon.pdf http://www.forbes.com/2008/06/23/credit-crisis-japan-ent-fin-cs_kw_0623whartoncreditcrisis.html http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/Fed-Buiter081608.pdf?mod=relevancy http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/Fed-JacksonHole.pdf?mod=relevancy http://www.thislife.org/extras/radio/355_transcript.pdf http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ffa3bbd4-7f18-11dd-a3da-000077b07658.html http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=2053 http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/19/news/economy/siklos_shadowstats.fortune/ http://www.cato.org/dailypodcast/podcast-archive.php?podcast_id=745 http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/29/news/economy/gumbel_world_economy.fortune/index.htm http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=2064 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122282734447293049.html http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12342237 http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/06/news/economy/betterbailout_sloan.fortune/ http://www.economist.com/specialreports/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12373682 http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12405370 http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/13/news/international/gumbel_eurobank.fortune/index.htm http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12436221 http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/emailafriend?contentId=AR2008101500432&sent=no http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/10/news/economy/fox_great_depression.fortune/index.htm?postversi on=2008101307 http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10024679
25-Oct-08
Economist
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Journals/ Publications
Think Tanks
Radio Stations
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Copyright 2009 by Grail Research, a division of Integreon No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without the permission of Grail Research, a division of Integreon
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