New dynamics in Pak-Russia ties

Aymen Ijaz Thursday, June 20, 2013 - Historically, Pakistan-Russia relations have been marred by periods of cooperation as well as uncertainty. The significant political developments such as Pakistans alignment with the West particularly USA soon after its inception, Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan and Russian Indo-centric approach have defined their foreign policy orientations since long. Soon after Pakistans independence, Moscow invitation to then-Prime Minister Liaquat Ali Khan for a visit which unfortunately could not materialize and afterwards Islamabads joining of US led SEATO and CENTO alliances were a major setback in Pak-Russia bilateral relations. During 1960s, Pak-USSR relations saw signs of improvement in the shape of Ayub Khans three official visits to Moscow, Soviet brokered Tashkent Declaration after the Indo-Pak 1965 War and signing of three bilateral agreements on trade, aviation, culture and scientific co-operation. The establishment of a Steel Mill in 1970 was another tangible step in building up of better ties among the two states. Periods from 1970-1989 in Pak-USSR relations are marred by trust-deficit, misperceptions and lost opportunities. It started with the Soviet offer of an economic aid for Pakistans Fourth Year Plan (1970-1975) on Yahyas visit to Moscow 1969 and in return demanding from Pakistan for the endorsement of Brezhnevs Asian Security System and permission for establishing a Russian radio centre at Badabar. The later demand was openly rejected by Pakistan which culminated into Soviet annoyance, Indo-Soviet Treaty of Friendship in 1970 and its full diplomatic and military support to India in Indo-Pak war of 1971. During the Soviet Occupation of Afghanistan in 1980s, Pakistan sided along USA in Soviet withdrawal from its soil, so Pak-USSR relations remained hostile. With the end of cold war, there was a rebirth in Pak-Russia relations with the exchange of high official visits including Nawaz Sharif visit to Moscow in 1999 and signing of number of investment and trade agreements. The relations which were soured with Pakistans pro-Taliban position were institutionalized with the event of 9/11 when Pakistan took an active role in GWOT. As a result of President Musharraf visit to Russia in 2003, three joint working groups on counter terrorism, strategic stability and inter governmental commission were established. Beside three days official visit of Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov to Pakistan in 2007 and visit of President Zardari to Moscow in 2011 were land mark events. In the walk of postponement of the President Putin visit in October 2012, the exchange of visits by General Kiyani and Russian Foreign Minister Sergie Viktorovich Lavrov indicates that both the states have apparently put aside baggage of bitter past and are willing to co-operate with each other in the near future. With the changing regional scenario, Soviet Union is regaining confidence after years of disintegration shock and Pakistan is in a dire need of shedding its western hang up. The Indo-US strategic partnership and USA bid for Indian UNSC permanent membership has convinced Pakistan to reevaluate its present policy and look towards Russia in the changing regional environment. Pakistan would no away adopt cold war era like break away from USA but it is willing to seek a balancing approach. After NATO withdrawal in 2014, the role of regional

countries and co-operation among Pakistan and Russia is important to promote peace and stability in Afghanistan. India and USA have shown serious reservations over growing PakRussia relations still Pakistan and Russia have shown mutuality of interest in enhancing greater bilateral cooperation and convergence of views on important regional and international issues. In the light of the bumpy Pak-US relations, Pakistan is also striving to diversify its foreign policy and reduce its Western dependency. Russia can help to mitigate Indian influence in Afghanistan after NATO withdrawal and can support Pakistan in obtaining full membership of Shangai CoOperation Organization. On the other side, Russian anxiety has been obvious over US repeated rigidity over insertion of Collective Treaty Organization in Europe; USA plan of BMD deployment on European soil, Indias military procurements from the West and USA full fledge support of Indian ABM system. These potential threats and security concerns have brought Pakistan and Russia closer together. Both the states have shown deep potential for co-operation in energy, trade, defence, production, telecommunication, space, oil and gas sectors. Pakistan and Russia can jointly curb the menace of terrorism and extremism in the region. Investment in the exploration of oil and gas pipeline, enhancement of people to people contact through scientific, cultural and educational exchange programs, collaboration in defence, space and technology would help strengthen their bilateral ties and erode past misperceptions and ambiguities. The changing dynamics of Pak-Russia strategic and economic relations have opened new era of prospects and opportunities which are imperative for preservation of their national security, strategic and economic interests and also to bring stability and peace in the region. The writer works for IPRI.