The Arab Spring and its Surprises

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/dech.12030/full 2 .0!.2013 1. Asef Bayat Article first published online: 15 MAY 2013 DO : 10.1111!dech.12030 " 2013 nternational nstitute of #ocial #tudies ssue

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#pecial ssue: $O%&M 2013 'olu(e ))* ssue 3* pa+es 5,-./01* May 2013 Additional nfor(ation0#ho1 All2 3o1 to 4ite5ublication 3istory %ow to $ite Bayat* A. 020132* 6he Arab #prin+ and its #urprises. De7elop(ent and 4han+e* )): 5,-./01. doi: 10.1111!dech.12030 &ublication %istory 1. ssue published online: 15 MAY 2013 2. Article first published online: 15 MAY 2013

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8. Bio+raphy

6he occurrence* speed and spread of the BArab re7olutionsC too= al(ost e7eryone by surprise* includin+ the prota+onists. But the real surprise lies* this essay su++ests* not in ho1 or 1hy these re7olutions ca(e to fruitionD it rather lies in re7olutionsC particular attributes E their ideolo+ical orientations and political traFectories. 6he essay discusses the re7olutionsC =ey 0une>pected2 characteristics* ar+uin+ that the Arab uprisin+s occurred in ne1 ideolo+ical ti(es.

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8. Bio+raphy

t is no1 co((on =no1led+e that al(ost no one had anticipated the Arab re7olutions* not e7en those 1hose business is (onitorin+ such e7ents. ntelli+ence a+encies* political establish(ents and thin= tan=s 1ere reportedly ta=en by surprise by the (onu(ental e7ents 1hich be+an in 6unisia and :+ypt and then spread li=e 1ildfire throu+hout the re+ion. :7en the &# intelli+ence ser7ices see(ed to be confident that the Mubara= re+i(e 1as safe enou+h not to be cru(bled by a handful of BusualC de(onstrators 1ho appeared in the streets of 4airo e7ery so often 0Aorton;6aylor* 20112. 6he 1ell;=no1n sur7ey of scholarly literature on Middle :ast politics o7er the past decade by the political scientist 8re+ory 8ause offers a si(ilar conclusion E that no social scientist 1as able to foresee 1hat happened 08ause* 20112. su++est that surprise lies not in the une>pected arri7al of these re7olutions* but in their character* their ideolo+ical (a=e;up and political traFectories. After all* e7ery re7olution is a surprise* no (atter ho1 con7inced the prota+onists or obser7ers (ay be of their co(in+. Ale> de 6oc?ue7ille fa(ously 1rote ho1 the $rench %e7olution cau+ht e7eryone off;+uard. De 6oc?ue7ille found the 1hole episode surprisin+ e7en thou+h he thou+ht* albeit in retrospect* that it 1as Bine7itableC 0de 6oc?ue7ille* 2011: 11.122. :7en a re7olutionary li=e <enin in early 1G1- stated to an audience that he 1ould not li7e to see %ussiaHs +reat re7olution 0#hapiro* 1G,): 1G2. Aor 1ere the Bolshe7i=s* Menshe7i=s* or forei+n obser7ers e>pectin+ the fall of the 6sar 0#hapiro* 1G,): 3G2. Or ta=e the ranian re7olution of 1G-G: Fust a fe1 (onths before the fall of the #hah* 5resident 4arter at a dinner in 6ehran announced that ran* based on the 4 AHs assess(ent* 1as an Bisland of stabilityC in a troubled re+ion. $or his part* Ayatollah 9ho(eini in 1G-0 thou+ht it 1ould ta=e t1o centuries to topple the ranian (onarchyD e7en by 1G-, he still doubted if the #hah 1ould relin?uish po1er 0Ba=hash* 1G,)2. recall ho1 (y re7olutionary friends and 1ere utterly surprised by the unfoldin+ of the ranian re7olution* e7en thou+h 1e ne7er shed our teleolo+ical con7iction that Bhistory is on our sideC. 6he story of the 1G,G re7olutions in :astern :urope see(s not (uch different. Only 5 per cent of :ast 8er(ans had anticipated a re7olution a year before it actually happened. 6he 7ast (aFority of 8er(ans 1ere in a state of total disbelief 0Ion+* 20112.

#o* 1hy the surpriseJ 6he econo(ist 6i(ur 9uran has ar+ued that re7olutions co(e as a surprise because the dissentin+ population did not re7eal their discontent in public. 4onse?uently* the opposition re(ains hidden fro( the ears and eyes of both ad7ersaries and obser7ers* 1ho then assu(e that thin+s are stable. But 1hen an accident tri++ers a protest* the hidden dissenters Foin forces to create for(idable public protestation that (ay undo authoritarian syste(s 09uran* 1G,G2. 6his sounds li=e an intri+uin+ ar+u(ent* but to 1hat e>tent it resonates 1ith the Arab re7olts re(ains the ?uestion. n (y o1n e>perience of li7in+ and 1or=in+ in both ran and :+ypt prior to their re7olutions* could not help noticin+ ho1 people publicly co(plained about a ran+e of issues. $ro( hi+h prices and po1er cuts to police brutality and traffic Fa(s E and incidentally* they (ostly bla(ed* ri+htly or 1ron+ly* the +o7ern(ent for these (isfortunes. ndeed* the practice of Bpublic na++in+C appears to be a salient feature of public culture in the Middle :ast* ser7in+ as a crucial ele(ent in the (a=in+ of public opinion* or the Bpolitical streetC. 6his refers to the collecti7e senti(ents* shared feelin+s and public opinions of ordinary people in their day;to;day utterances and practices 1hich are e>pressed broadly and casually in urban public spaces E in ta>is* buses* shops* streets and side1al=s* or in (ass de(onstrations 0Bayat* 2013a2. Ihile the BArab streetC echoed the dissentin+ voice of the Arab public* certain see(in+ly ordinary practices of e7eryday life beca(e increasin+ly contentious in the political arena. #ince the 1G,0s* acti7is( had re(ained li(ited to traditional party politics* a tired (ethod that lost (uch of its efficacy and appeal by the (id;2000s. %adical sla(ists had resorted to <eninist;type under+round or+aniKationsD student acti7is( 1as forced to re(ain on ca(pusD labourers* +oin+ beyond con7entional or+aniKations* launched 1ild;cat stri=esD (iddle;class professionals resorted to A8O 1or=D and all e(braced street politics 1hen per(itted* for instance durin+ de(onstrations in support of the 5alestinian cause. But the 7ast constituencies of the urban poor* 1o(en* youth and others resorted to Bnon;(o7e(entsC E the non; deliberate and dispersed but contentious practices of indi7iduals and fa(ilies to enhance their life chances. 6he urban poor (ade sure to secure shelter* consolidate their co((unities* and earn a li7in+ by de7isin+ 1or= in the 7ast subsistent and street econo(y. Musli( 1o(en stro7e to assert their presence in public* +o to colle+e* and ensure Fustice in courts. And youths too= e7ery opportunity to affir( their autono(y* challen+e social control and plan for their future* e7en thou+h (any re(ained ato(iKed and drea(ed of (i+ratin+ to the Iest.1 #o* 1hile the re+i(es 1ere able to subdue Bcollecti7e actorsC or or+aniKed (o7e(ents* they 1ere unable to pre7ent Bcollecti7e actionsC* the diffused but si(ultaneous practices of the Bnon;(o7e(entsC. 6he non;(o7e(ents had e(er+ed lar+ely to lo1er the cost of (obiliKation in the face of tyrannical re+i(es* but 1hen so(e political opportunities arri7ed in the late 2000s* so(e of these dispersed stru++les assu(ed coordination and cla(our. 6he :+yptian urban poor protested a+ainst the hi+h price of food* especially bread* a+ainst the de(olition of

ille+al ho(es* and the shorta+e of drin=in+ 1ater in the nei+hbourhoods. 4airoHs +arba+e collectors 1a+ed a series of unprecedented collecti7e protests in 200G lea7in+ piles of trash in the streets and at ho(es* e>posin+ the failure of the state to ensure a (odicu( of sanitary urban life. <abour protests a+ainst the erodin+ traditional per=s and security reached a ne1 hei+ht in 200G and 2010* and the youn+ +ot in7ol7ed in ci7ic acti7is( and 7oluntary 1or= on a scale seen ne7er before. Ihen social (edia beca(e a7ailable for the(* the youn+ be+an to connect* 1ith so(e +ettin+ in7ol7ed in (obiliKin+ protest actions. n 6unisia* self; i((olations and labour unrest had pre7iously occurred in the central pro7inces of 8habes* Lasarain and #idibouKid* and the 6unisian youn+er +eneration E so(e )0 per cent of the( une(ployed E 1ere already in the business of online net1or=in+ and buildin+ political identities 0Ayeb* 2011D #ha?roun* 20112. 6hese lar+ely disparate 7oices and practices see(ed to coalesce by the end of the 2000s to for( the bac=bone of 1hat ca(e to be =no1n as the Arab sprin+. A +reat deal* then* 1as happenin+ 1ithin the underside of Arab societies* 1hich re(ained unnoticed by Middle :ast obser7ers. Middle :ast 1atchers 1ere concerned less 1ith the the(e of chan+e than continuity* less 1ith e>plorin+ internal forces of transfor(ation than e>plainin+ ho1 authoritarian rules endured. Many obser7ers* 1earin+ the Be>ceptionalistC lens* focused on a narro1 and static notion of culture E one that 1as 7irtually e?uated 1ith the reli+ion of sla( E to e>plain the status ?uo. Others 1ho found little e>planatory po1er in the BculturalistC paradi+( 0because after all the (aFor opposition to the pre;re7olution re+i(es ca(e fro( the ran= of Musli(s* especially the sla(ists2 pointed instead to oil and the rentier state as factors that presu(ably ensured stability and continuity. 4ertainly* oil (oney* especially lots of it* does (atter in buyin+ off dissent by helpin+ to establish social contracts* creatin+ labour aristocracies* fundin+ efficient institutions of political control and* (ost i(portantly* creatin+ a Bre+i(e classC* a class of loyalists 1ho lend stron+ support to the incu(bent re+i(es in e>chan+e for state handouts* as in the sla(ic %epublic or 8addafiHs <ibya. But the rentier state is also de7elop(entalD it B(oderniKesC* helpin+ to establish the infrastructure of econo(ic and social chan+e* and classes of political actors 1ho (ay co(e to ?uestion the 7ery authoritarian states 1hich assisted to create the(. 6he de7elop(ent processes under the #hah and the sla(ic %epublic in ran* or those in #audi Arabia* O(an* 9u1ait and the &nited Arab :(irates e>e(plify the re+enerati7e facet of oil inco(e.2 #urprisin+ly* such structural factors barely fi+ured in the analyses of the pre7ailin+ scholarship on the Middle :ast. 4onse?uently* those 1ho did point to the potential of popular dissent as a source of chan+e could not find (uch potency in the doin+s of ordinary people. f anythin+* they 7ie1ed popular acti7is( as little (ore than sporadic an+ry protestation* 1ith (ost of it directed by sla(ists (ainly a+ainst the Iest and srael* rather than their o1n repressi7e states. :7en the

celebrated Arab Human Development Report* ar+uably the (ost si+nificant (anifesto for chan+e in the Arab Middle :ast* could not en7ision any other alternati7e to the depressin+ state of Arab de7elop(ent but a Brealistic solutionC of a B1estern;supported proFect of +radual and (oderate refor( ai(in+ at liberaliKationC 0&AD5* 200): 1/)2. f there 1as any for(idable dissent to rec=on 1ith* it ca(e only fro( the ran= of the sla(ists* not ordinary people.

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8. Bio+raphy

n truth* sla(ist politics 1as such an unri7alled trend prior to the uprisin+s that* for (any obser7ers and policy (a=ers* any real challen+e to the despotic re+i(es 1ould unleash sla(ist re7olutions in the re+ion 0Bayat* 20112. 4ontrary to e>pectations* this 1as not the case. #urprisin+ly* the Arab re7olts espoused the =ind of aura* idio(s* culture and constituencies that radically distin+uished the( fro( the earlier sla(ist (o7e(ents. Of course (ost participants 1ere pious Musli(s 1ho fou+ht alon+ 1ith seculars* leftists* nationalists and non;Musli(s. Many protestors appeared to deploy reli+ious rituals 0such as prayin+ in streets and s?uares2* utiliKin+ reli+ious ti(es 0$ridays2 and places 0li=e (os?ues2D but these reli+ious rituals are all part of the re+ular doin+s of all pious Arabs 1ho perfor( the( in e7eryday life* rather than carryin+ the( out to sla(iKe the uprisin+s. nstead of sla(ist re7olutions* the uprisin+s cha(pioned Bpost; sla(istC con7ictions. :7en thou+h the sla(ist acti7ists 1ere certainly present durin+ the uprisin+s* they ne7er deter(ined the direction E after all* there 1as hardly central leadership in any one of these (o7e(ents. #o(e sla(ist +roups* as in :+ypt* initially 1ere e7en reluctant to Foin in the protestsD and the (aFor reli+ious +roups* #alafies* al;AKhar and the 4optic 4hurch* initially opposed the re7olution. 6he Musli( BrothersC old +uard Foined in reluctantly only after bein+ pushed by the +roupHs youths 1ho defied their leaders to cooperate closely 1ith the liberal and leftist

prota+onists. n 6unisia* supporters of the sla(ic al;Aahda did ta=e part in the re7olution* but their leader* %ashid al;8hanoushi* (ade it clear that his party did not 1ant a 9ho(eini;type reli+ious stateD he fa7oured a non;reli+ious and ci7il state. 6he leadership of the <ibyan uprisin+* the Aational 6ransitional 4ouncil* 1as co(posed not of sla(ists or al;Laeda (e(bers* but doctors* la1yers* teachers and so(e defectors fro( the 8addafi re+i(e 1ho suddenly found the(sel7es leadin+ a re7olution. n Ye(en* the =ey participatin+ reli+ious +roup 0 slah 5arty2 in the re7olutionary coalition re(ained (oderate* 1hile al;Laeda only used the disruption in the security control to launch its o1n sporadic anti;+o7ern(ent attac=s in the pro7inces. :7en in Bahrain* 1here conflict appeared reli+ious 0#hiHa opposition 7ersus #unni rulin+ fa(ily2* the opposition reFected a reli+ious ta=e;o7er of the state. Broadly* the Arab re7olts called not for a reli+ious state* but for Bfreedo(* di+nity and social FusticeC. 6hese o7er1hel(in+ly ci7il and non;reli+ious re7olts represent a sharp departure fro( the re+ionHs politics of the (id;1G,0s and 1GG0s* 1hen the political class 1as consu(ed by the nationalist and (oral politics fra(ed o7er1hel(in+ly by an sla(ist paradi+(. But sla(ist politics had be+un to lose its he+e(ony in the post G!11 Middle :ast. 6he ranian (odel had already faced a deep crisis for its repression* (iso+yny* e>clusionary attitudes and unfulfilled pro(ises. Al;LaedaHs brutal 7iolence and e>tre(is( had caused a 1idespread sla(ophobia fro( 1hich lar+ely ordinary Musli(s suffered. 6he challen+e faced by 6ur=ish sla(is( in its encounter 1ith stron+ secular sensibilities and the 6ur=ish (ilitary had brou+ht about the e(er+ence of a post; sla(ist Mustice and De7elop(ent 5arty 0A952. 6hus* sla(ist politics in the re+ion encountered serious challen+es fro( 1ithout and 1ithin E fro( seculars and faithful ali=e 1ho felt the deep scars sla(istsC disre+ard for hu(an ri+hts* tolerance and pluralis( had left on the body politic and reli+ious life. 6he faithful could no lon+er accept sla(istsC e>ploitation of sla( as a tool to procure po1er and pri7ile+e. t 1as ti(e to rescue sla( and the state by abandonin+ the idea of the sla(ic state. 6his line of thin=in+ broadly underscored the post; sla(ist orientation of a Bne1 Arab publicC 0youn+* educated* post; ideolo+ical and 7ariously (ar+inaliKed2 1ho utiliKed e>pandin+ electronic co((unication 0satellite dishes* (obile phones* nternet* 1eblo+s and then $aceboo=2 to initiate the uprisin+s.3 A surprisin+ ele(ent here is that on the (orro1 of these o7er1hel(in+ly ci7il and non; reli+ious uprisin+s* it 1as (ainly the sla(ic parties that assu(ed parlia(entary and +o7ern(ental po1er. n Morocco* the sla(ic Mustice and De7elop(ent 5arty scored the hi+hest nu(ber of 7otes and its leader* Ben=irani* beca(e the 5ri(e Minister. 6he 6unisian al;Aahda 5arty 1on )0 per cent of the seats in the parlia(entary elections and beca(e the do(inant po1er in the 4onstituent Asse(bly. n :+ypt* the Musli( Brothers and the #alafi parties to+ether captured /0 per cent of the seats in the 5arlia(ent* and Muha((ad Morsy of the Musli( Brothers beca(e the 5resident. Are 1e not then on the 7er+e of yet another 1a7e

of sla(is( in the Middle :astJ Ias the BArab sprin+C after all not the season of sla(ic re7olutions in the re+ionJ) 6he concern o7er B sla(ist resur+enceC is partly understandable* but has for lar+e part to do 1ith the co((on practice of lu(pin+ to+ether under the rubric B sla(is(C ?uite different =inds of reli+iously;inspired trends* as if any Musli( (an 1ith beards and +alabiya* or 1o(an 1ith hiFab* or a 7olunteer in a reli+ious association* is an B sla(istC. n fact* (any of the reli+ious parties 1hich see( to cause an>iety in the (ainstrea( (edia are not actually B sla(istC* strictly;spea=in+D they are Bpost; sla(istC* e7en thou+h they all self;consciously re(ain B sla(icC. By sla(is( (ean those ideolo+ies and (o7e(ents that see= to establish so(e =ind of an sla(ic order E a reli+ious state* #haria la1 and (oral codes in Musli( societies and co((unities. An association 1ith the state is a =ey feature of sla(ist (o7e(ents. sla(ist (o7e(ents are ada(ant about controllin+ state po1er* not only because it ensures their rule* but especially because they consider the state to be the (ost po1erful and efficient institution that is able* 1hether throu+h daB1a 0preachin+2 or duress* to Bco((and +ood and forbid 1ron+C in Musli( societies. 6his (eans that the sla(istsC nor(ati7e and le+al perspecti7e places (ore e(phasis on peopleHs obli+ations than their ri+htsD people are percei7ed (ore as dutiful subFects than ri+htful citiKens. #o* sla(is( is broadly a duty; centred reli+ious polity. :>a(ples include the ranian hardliners led by the supre(e leader Ayatollah 9ha(eneiD the Ma(aBat;e sla(i or <ash=ar;e 6ayyubah in 5a=istanD <ash=ar;i Mihad in ndonesiaD Al;#hibab in #u(aliaD and 3iKbul;6ahrir in (any parts of the 1orld. 5ost; sla(is(* ho1e7er* is different. t is not anti; sla(ic* nor un; sla(ic or secularD it is reli+ious. But it represents a criti?ue of sla(is( fro( 1ithin and 1ithout. t 1ants to transcend sla(ist politics by e(phasiKin+ peopleHs ri+hts rather than Fust their obli+ationsD people are seen (ore as citiKens than (ere subFects. 5ost; sla(is( hopes to (i> reli+iosity and ri+hts* faith and freedo( 01ith 7aried de+rees2* sla( and de(ocracy. t see=s to establish an electoral de(ocracy* a secular!ci7il state* 1hile pro(otin+ a pious society. 6he ranian %efor( Mo7e(ent under Moha((ad 9hata(i* the ndonesian 59#* and the 6ur=ish A95 represent 7ariants of the post; sla(ist trends in the Musli( 1orld today.5 Ihat has been unfoldin+ in the after(ath of the BArab sprin+C is not B sla(ist resur+enceC per se* but rather a ne1 reli+ious polity 1ith a post; sla(ist procli7ity. After all* in the Al+erian and <ibyan post; uprisin+s elections* the reli+ious parties lost to the secular and liberal counterpartsD the <ibyan Abdel;3a=i( BelhaFHs sla(ist party did not +et any seats in the 8eneral Aational 4on+ress in 2012* 1hich elected the secular Mostafa Abusha+ur as 5ri(e Minister. n the cases of both Morocco and 6unisia* the reli+ious parties 1hich captured (ost po1er are not sla(ist* strictly spea=in+* but rather post; sla(ist. Al;Aahda in 6unisia and Mustice and De7elop(ent 5arty 05MD2 in Morocco re(ain co((itted to electoral de(ocracy. 6hey 1ish to follo1 a

si(ilar line as the 6ur=ish A95. 6hey are interested not in a reli+ious state* but in a ci7il and secular one* but they also 1ish to see reli+ion play an acti7e role in ci7il and political society. n :+ypt thin+s are (ore co(ple>. 6he Musli( Brothers 0MB2 are in the throes of a transfor(ation* and re(ain in an ideolo+ical ?uandary. Ihile the old +uard still utters the lan+ua+e of sla(is( and the #haria E 1ith so(e e7en subscribin+ to the ideas of the radical #ayyid Lutb E their political party* the $reedo( and Mustice 5arty* is officially co((itted to a ci7il state* and (any of their youths e(brace post; sla(is( of the A95 type. 6he differences of 7ision 1ithin the (o7e(ent ha7e led to a nu(ber of splits since the re7olutionD the pro(inent Abdel Mone( Aboul;$otouh has for(ed his o1n party* 1hile the youn+er acti7ists* upon splittin+ fro( the Musli( Brothers* ha7e established fi7e political parties includin+ 6ayar Masry and al;Adl 5arty. Beyond the chan+e in the for(al or+aniKations* there appears to be an ideolo+ical shift a(on+ the Arab publics in +eneral. A 7alue sur7ey conducted in Mune.Au+ust 2011 in :+ypt* ra?* <ebanon and #audi Arabia see(s to confir( a (o7e to1ards post; sla(is(. #o(e ,5 per cent of :+yptians said the ai( of the re7olution 1as de(ocracy* econo(ic prosperity and e?uality* 1hile only G per cent said the +oal 1as an sla(ic +o7ern(ent. Another poll by 6A# reported in Al-Masry al-Youm in 2011 su++ested that -5 per cent of :+yptians fa7oured a ci7il* rather than reli+ious* state. n 2001* /, per cent of :+yptians fa7oured de(ocracyD this increased to ,) per cent in 2011 0Moaddel* 20122./ After all* in the first round of presidential elections in :+ypt* the Musli( BrothersC sla(ist candidate scored less than 25 per cent of the 7otes* and in the final round 0a+ainst the pro;Mubara= Ah(ad #hafi=2 Fust o7er 50 per cent. Ae7ertheless* the 7isibility of #alafies in the public arena has caused a real surprise and concern. :7en thou+h #alafis( re(ains a hetero+eneous entity E so(e fa7our the status;?uo* others focus on enhancin+ the ethical self* 1hile still others e(brace a Mihadi and (ilitant path E the sporadic and 7iolent intrusions into artistic e>pressions or 1o(enHs ri+hts ha7e caused serious dis?uiet and debate about the future of #alafi +roups in the ne1 Arab political landscape.

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8. Bio+raphy

Ihate7er their nature* ho1 did it transpire that the reli+ious parties in particular* rather than the re7olutionaries* ascended to the hel( of po1erJ Ihy 1ere the prota+onists E includin+ the leftists* liberals and post; sla(ists E 1ho initiated and pushed throu+h the uprisin+s sidelined on the (orro1 of the uprisin+sJ n ti(es of re7olution!insurrection* the fiercest battles ta=e place in the streets* the locus 1here re7olutionary brea=throu+h is achie7ed. #treet politics* then* beco(es the (ost critical battle;fra(e in the Be>ceptional episodeC of the re7olutionHs lon+ life;course. 6his Be>ceptional episodeC is (ar=ed by a s1ift transfor(ation of consciousness* utopia and euphoria. t is this e>traordinary (o(ent 01ith its uni?ue spatial* te(poral and co+niti7e ele(ents2 that espouses a1e* inspiration and the pro(ise of a ne1 1orld. %e7olutionaries beco(e the (aster of the streets at these transitory ti(es. 6heir unre(ittin+ initiati7es* bra7ery and sacrifices appear as if they si+nal the co(in+ of a ne1 historical order. 6his represents the street politics of the re7olutionary ti(es. 3o1e7er* Bre7olutionC 0as insurrection2 is different fro( Bpost;re7olutionC E or the day after the dictators abdicate. Ihereas the BstreetC (atters (ost in ti(es of re7olution* in Bpost; re7olutionC it is political society and the state that rule the day. Ihile the Be>ceptional episodeC* the insurrection* echoes the (astery of re7olutionaries* Bpost;re7olutionC ti(es are the occasion of the Bfree ridersC. 6he free riders E those non;participants* the 1ell;1ishers* the beni+n and the 1atchers of e7ents* if not opportunists E assu(e i((ediate po1er the day after the dictators relin?uish po1er. 6hey co(e out* +et 7isible and 7ocal* and (a=e clai(s. Most crucially* they the(sel7es beco(e the tar+et of intense (obiliKation by the already; or+aniKed and e?ually free;ridin+ +roups and (o7e(ents. A parado> of the Bpost;re7olutionC period is that either the re7olutionaries 0ban=in+ on their political capital2 i(pose their a+enda throu+h e>clusionary populis( 0as in ran* %ussia* 4hina or :thiopia2 1ithout (uch re+ard for the 1ill of the (aFority 0BIe did the re7olution* so 1e ha7e the ri+ht to ruleC2. Or* if electoral de(ocracy did (atter* they (i+ht lose political society to the free;rider (aFority 1hose 7otes can brin+ non;re7olutionaries to the centres of po1er. 6he fact is that re7olutionaries are al1ays in a (inorityD and re7olutions are al1ays carried out by a (inority* albeit a Bspectacular (inorityC E e>ceptional and e>tra;ordinary players 1ho (aster the art of insurrection. %e7olutions are 1on not because the (aFority of people fi+ht the re+i(es* but because only a tiny (inority re(ains to resist.-

6he street politics of re7olutionary ti(es sho1s its li(itations 1hen it is deployed in an electoral de(ocracy. 6he protests in 6ahrir s?uare* in Madrid or in Ae1 Yor=Hs <iberty #?uare ha7e truly been the (ost e>tra;ordinary e>pression of street politics in recent (e(ory. But they are precisely that E extra-ordinary* 1hich in ordinary ti(es re7eal their li(itationsD they cannot be sustained for a lon+ span of ti(e* for they 1ould be costly* 1hile their routiniKation 1ould di(inish their clout and effecti7ity. ronically* these spectacular and e>tra;ordinary street sho1do1ns are too feeble to carry on for lon+ 1hen co(pared to the Bstreet politicsC of the non;(o7e(ents 1hose practices are part and parcel of the ordinary practices of e7eryday life 0such as street 7endors spreadin+ their (erchandise in streets* or poor households incorporatin+ public spaces into their pri7ate li7es2. n this latter case* Bstreet politicsC is not an extra-ordinary perfor(anceD rather it is an incessant but ordinary practice of e7eryday life for sustenance* 1here the 7ery deed of appropriation of public space is a +ain itself* rather than a (eans to achie7e a political +oal. 4onse?uently* post;re7olution* 1inners are not those 1ho once created the 1onders of 6ahrir and its (a+ical po1er* but those 1ho s=ilfully (obiliKe the (ass of ordinary people* includin+ the free riders* in their s(all to1ns* far(s* factories and unions. n 6unisia and :+ypt* the reli+ious parties be+an to (obiliKe the free riders as soon as the dictators fell. Al;Aahda alon+ 1ith its leader al;8hanoushi tra7elled to the pro7inces* urban nei+hbourhoods and 7illa+es to hold (eetin+s* establish branches and build net1or=s. 6housands attended these (eetin+s 0<ynch* 20112. n :+ypt* +roups li=e 8a(aBa al; sla(iyya* banned and banished under Mubara=* as 1ell as the unassu(in+ #alafies* e(er+ed out of seclusion and be+an to (obiliKe in earnest. 6he Musli( Brothers already held a 1ell; established or+aniKation and 7ast net1or= of cells* cadres and local leaders throu+hout the country. 6hey re7italiKed those net1or=s in a (ore a++ressi7e fashion in (os?ues* 7illa+es and nei+hbourhoods* often deployin+ their (essa+es alon+ 1ith typical populist dispensations E handouts* food and fuel. Ihen the 8a(aBa al; sla(iyya held its first e7er free rally in MasFid Ada( in Ain al;#ha(s of 4airo* so(e )*000 attended., 6hrou+h such relentless 1or= far a1ay fro( 6ahrir or Bour?iba Boule7ard* the reli+ious parties (ana+ed to score i(pressi7e 7ictories in the constituent asse(blies and parlia(entary elections in 2011. 6hey do(inated political society throu+h side;linin+ the left* liberal and post; sla(ist re7olutionaries* not to (ention 1o(en 1hose (ass presence in the re7olutions need not be e(phasiKed* but 1ho ended up bein+ e>cluded fro( the centres of po1er.G 6hus* pushed a1ay fro( the state and political society* and 1ith street politics runnin+ its course* the re7olutionaries 1ere bound to (o7e into associational life in ci7il society if they 1ere to continue their acti7is(. But e7en this is not +uaranteed if the state* once it consolidates itself* e>tends its sur7eillance into oppositional ci7il associations. And it 1ill do so in the na(e of Bsafe+uardin+ the re7olutionC. Ie sa1 ho1 the (ilitary rulers in :+ypt

0#4A$2 in 2011 1ent after 3u(an %i+hts or+aniKations and non;confor(ist A8Os* bannin+ a nu(ber of the(. 6he #4A$ 1ent as far as brin+in+ 1)*000 re7olutionaries before a (ilitary tribunal* subFectin+ (any to prosecution and torture. Aot Fust ci7il society or+aniKations* but e7en the sanctuary of the Bpri7ate real(C should not be ta=en for +ranted* if there is anythin+ to learn fro( the e>perience of the ranian re7olution of 1G-G. n ran* the secular re7olutionaries and ordinary citiKens 1ere pressed so hard by the ne1 re+i(e that they found the(sel7es stru++lin+ to defend the (ost (undane hu(an ri+hts E 1hat colour clothin+ to 1ear* 1hat =ind of (usic to listen to* or ho1 (uch hair to sho1 off beneath their headscar7es.

'*3+'2(ST '*-+)/T(+0A'(*S
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8. Bio+raphy

6he fact that re7olutionaries 1ere subFected to prosecution and torture Fust after the uprisin+s by the re(nants of the old re+i(e re7eals so(ethin+ peculiar about the nature of such Bre7olutionsC. 6he fact is that* and this is the (ost si+nificant surprise* the Arab Bre7olutionsC failed to brin+ about a radical transfor(ation of the state E a step necessary to realiKe the re7olutionHs obFecti7es. Ihile the prota+onists succeeded in creatin+ the (a+ic of 6ahrir s?uare* little chan+ed in state institutions. n :+ypt* Ye(en* and to a lesser e>tent in 6unisia* so(e of the =ey institutions of the old re+i(es E the security apparatus* the Fudiciary* the state (edia* political net1or=s of po1erful business circles* cultural or+aniKations* and especially the (ilitary E re(ained lar+ely unaltered. n this sense* the BArab uprisin+sC are different fro( the t1entieth century re7olutions in %ussia* 4hina* 4uba* ran* or e7en those in 1G,G in :astern :urope* 1here re7olutions ca(e to (ean a rapid and radical o7erhaul of the state* dri7en fro( belo1 by popular uprisin+s. n the Arab 1orld 0barrin+ <ibya 1hich 1ent throu+h a re7olutionary* albeit destructi7e* 1ar and 7iolence aided by AA6O2* the prota+onist re7olutionaries re(ained outside the centres of

po1er* because they 1ere not supposed to seiKe state po1erD they 1ere not plannin+ to. Ihen* in the later sta+es* they realiKed that they should* they lac=ed the resources E the =ind of or+aniKation* po1erful leaderships and a strate+ic 7ision necessary to 1rest po1er fro( the old re+i(es or the free riders. 6hus* there 1as no dual po1er* no parallel +o7ern(ents* no re7olutionary pro7isional +o7ern(ents. n a sense then* these 1ere the re7olutions 1ithout re7olutionaries. $or the Arab #prin+ ca(e to fruition at a political ti(e in the 1orld 1hen the 7ery idea of re7olution had faded and re7olutionary utopias had ceased to e>ist. 4onse?uently* 1hat ca(e to transpire in the end 1ere not re7olutions in the t1entieth century sense of the ter(* but Brefo;lutionsC E the re7olutionary (o7e(ents 1hich ai(ed to co(pel the tyrannical incu(bent states to refor( the(sel7es on behalf of the re7olutionaries.10 &ntil the (id;1GG0s* three (aFor ideolo+ical traditions carried the idea of re7olution as the strate+y of funda(ental chan+e in societies. 6hey included anti;colonial nationalis(* Mar>is(.<eninis( and sla(is(.11 Anti;colonial nationalis( E as articulated in the ideas of such fi+ures as $anon* Aasser* Aehru and A=ru(ah E i(a+ined post;colonial societies as radically transfor(ed to end the colonial do(ination and the supre(acy of co(prador bour+eoisie. But the nationalist re7olutions had co(e to a halt in the post;colonial era. Ihile the post;colonial re+i(es did (a=e so(e inroads in state buildin+* education* e(ploy(ent and a+rarian refor(* for the (ost part they failed to secure de(ocracy* deep social Fustice and the independence that they had pro(ised. Most turned into autocracies* (ilitary populists and de7elop(ental failures* if they 1ere not o7erthro1n by (ilitary coups. By the late 1G,0s* these post;colonial states 1ere sheddin+ their distributi7e socialis(* Bsocial contractsC and populis( by e(bracin+ neoliberal policies. 5alestinian nationalis( re(ains perhaps the last of the nationalist re7olutionary (o7e(ents to o7erco(e its state of coloniKation. Mar>ists 1ere perhaps the (ost si+nificant re7olutionaries in the 4old Iar era* 1ith the =ey Mar>ist.<eninist or+aniKations continuin+ to e(brace the re7olutionary ideal. Many of the( inspired a +uerrilla;type strate+y of social re7olutions in de7elopin+ countries* includin+ the Middle :ast. 6he iconic i(a+es of 4he 8ue7ara and 3o 4hi Minh 1ith the le+ends of re7olutions in 4uba and 'ietna( found passionate receptions not only in the uni7ersities and factories of the 6hird Iorld* but also in the streets of 5aris* Ae1 Yor= and <ondon. Despite the appeal of social de(ocracy and the :uroco((unist refor(is( in :urope* the radical left and 6rots=yist or+aniKations had retained their elaborate theories of re7olution 1ith the blueprints of state ta=eo7er. :7en thou+h so(e strands 1ithin the 6hird Iorld left pursued the refor(ist course of Bnon;capitalist road to de7elop(entC* Mar>ist.<eninists continued to ad7ocate re7olution passionately. All of this chan+ed drastically after the collapse of the &##% and the #ocialist :astern Bloc=. 6he anti;4o((unist re7olutions of :astern :urope and the end of the 4old Iar ter(inated

the utopia of re7olution as a rapid and radical socio;political transfor(ation. 6he rhetoric of Bre7olutionC 1as so inte+ral to socialis( that the de(ise of Bactually e>istin+ socialis(C (eant the end of re7olution as radical chan+e. 6he failure of socialis( (eant the failure of state; centred policies and perspecti7esD tatism 1as e?uated 1ith centralis(* repression* inefficiency and erosion of indi7idual autono(y* initiati7es and freedo(. 6his certainly had a profound i(pact on the le+iti(acy of Bre7olutionC +i7en its e(phasis on the ta=e;o7er of the state. #o Bre7olutionC beca(e a bad 1ord* identified 1ith Mar>is(* stron+ state and authoritarianis( E all features of the defeated 4o((unis(. 6he spread of neoliberalis( around the +lobe be+innin+ 1ith %onald %ea+an in the &# and Mar+aret 6hatcher in Britain enor(ously aided this chan+e of discourse. n place of socialis(* state and re7olution* ca(e an intense interest in Bthe indi7idualC* A8Os* public sphere* ci7il society* rational dialo+ue* non;7iolence and* in a 1ord* Brefor(C. B%efor(C beca(e the na(e of the +a(e and the strate+y of the ti(e. nternational A8Os* aid a+encies and +o7ern(ents played a =ey role in spreadin+ the ne1 discourse at the +lobal le7el* as did business and conser7ati7e thin= tan=s. 6he i(pact 1as i(pressi7e. f in the 1G-0s* 4hristian socialis( found e>pression in the collecti7ist and re7olutionary (o7e(ents of <iberation theolo+y* the 2000s sa1 the upsur+e* in Africa and <atin A(erica* of a ne1 :7an+elist 4hristianity 1hose indi7idualist ethics e(braced the spirit of neoliberalis(* (i>in+ faith and fortune. Mar>is(.<eninis( and its idea of re7olution had declined* but it had left its re7olutionary (ar= on its archetypical ri7al E sla(is(. #ince the 1G-0s* the re7olutionary ideas of #ayyid Lutb do(inated the 7arious strands of political sla(. nfor(ed by the political theolo+y of the ndian Abul;alaC Maududi 01ho had learnt the or+aniKational strate+y of the ndian 4o((unist 5arty2* LutbHs ideas for(ed the ideolo+ical foundation for Musli( (ilitants to forcefully seiKe and refurbish the Mahili state to establish an sla(ic order. ndeed* LutbHs Maalim fi al-Tariq 0 i!nposts2 01G/)2 held the sa(e 7alue for (ilitant sla(ists 0such as 8a(aBa sla(iyya* 3iKbul;6ahrir or 7arious Mihadi +roups2 as <eninHs "#at is to $e Done 01G022 did for Mar>ist.<eninists. n ran* Ayatollah Ali 9ha(enei* the current supre(e leader* had translated the i!nposts into 5ersian* 1hile Ali #hariati* a student of $rench leftist 8eor+e 8or1itch* had ad7ocated re7olution in Mar>ist. sla(ic idio(s to realiKe the idea of the Bdi7ine classless societyC. 6hus* unli=e the Musli( Brotherhood 1hich fa7oured a +radualist strate+y of sla(iKation* (ilitant sla(is( stayed passionate about re7olution. 6his also be+an to shift* ho1e7er. Iith the crisis of sla(is( and the rise of post; sla(ist trends* the idea of re7olution be+an to lose its allure. 5ost; sla(ist criticis( of sla(is( also (eant a departure fro( the sla(ist discourse of 7iolence* (ilitancy and re7olutionary rhetoric. 5ost; sla(ists ad7ocated non;7iolence* +radualis( and a refor(ist path to1ards

political and social chan+e. n ran* for instance* the idio( of Bre7olutionC that 1as so re7ered in the 1G,0s lost its appeal by the late 1GG0s. B%e7olutionC literally beca(e a sti+(a* identified 1ith 7iolence* destruction and authoritarian rule. Ihile sla(is( had roots in 4old Iar politics* post; sla(ist politics is shaped by the pre7ailin+ idio(s of the post;4old Iar period E the free (ar=et* ci7il society* non;7iolence and refor(. #o* the Arab uprisin+s occurred at a ti(e on the +lobal sta+e 1hen the idea of re7olution had dissipated. 6he decline of the =ey +rand ideolo+ies E re7olutionary nationalis(* Mar>is(. <eninis( and sla(is( E had left the prota+onists 1ith no re7olutionary utopia to i(a+ine. t is not surprisin+ then that fe1 in the Arab 1orld had really en7isioned* strate+iKed or prepared for the unfoldin+ of the re7olutions* e7en thou+h they (i+ht ha7e drea(ed about the(. 6hese* then* see( to be 7ery different ti(es to (y youth in the ran of the late 1G-0s 1hen (y friends and 1ould often in7o=e the i(a+e of re7olution in our con7ersations* e7en if it loo=ed 7ery far;fetched. Bi=in+ throu+h the opulent nei+hbourhoods of north 6ehran* 1e al1ays 1ondered ho1 the #hahHs palaces 1ould be ta=en o7er* ho1 those la7ish (ansions 1ould be distributed. Ie 1ere thin=in+ about Bre7olutionC. n the Middle :ast of the 2000s hardly any +roup i(a+ined chan+e in ter(s of re7olution. 6hey had been preoccupied 1ith refor(D (eanin+ful chan+e in unFust and tyrannical re+i(es. n the 6unisian police state* the political class had +one throu+h a Bpolitical deathC. n :+ypt* the 9ifaya (o7e(ent and later the April / (o7e(ent* despite their political inno7ations* 1ere essentially refor(ist E they 1ere lac=in+ the strate+y to co(pletely o7erhaul the state.12 And there 1as hardly anythin+ re7olutionary in the =inds of trainin+ that so(e acti7ists had reportedly recei7ed in Latar or #erbia. 4onse?uently* 1hat transpired 1hen the uprisin+s unfolded 1ere not re7olutions per se* be+innin+ 1ith the radical shift in the state po1er* but Brefo;lutionsC* that is* re7olutionary (o7e(ents that 1ished to co(pel the incu(bent re+i(es to refor( the(sel7es. n truth* people (ay or (ay not ha7e an idea about re7olutions before they actually happen* for the occurrence of a re7olution has little to do 1ith the idea 0and e7en less 1ith a BtheoryC2 of re7olution. %e7olutions Bsi(plyC happenD but ha7in+ or not ha7in+ an idea about re7olutions 1ill ha7e a (ar=ed i(pact on the after(ath. 6he political field in the Arab 1orld re(ains open. 6here are still real possibilities for a profoundly e(ancipatory transfor(ation of the re+ion. ndeed* 1e (i+ht encounter yet another surprise in the co(in+ years by the +radual realiKation of 1hat propelled the Arab uprisin+s in the first place EBfreedo(* di+nity and social FusticeC. But this (ay not transpire unless acti7ists and the subaltern subFects continue their incessant (obiliKation in ci7il society* the streets* co((unities and in the pri7ate real(.

1. 1 #ee Bayat 02013a2 for a docu(entation of so(e of these practices. 2. 2 a( indebted to 9a7eh :hsani for brin+in+ this to (y attention. %ecently 6i(othy Mitchell has discussed the 1ider de(ocratiKin+ potential of oil and other e>tracti7e industriesD see Mitchell 020112. 3. 3 6his Bne1 Arab publicC shared 1ith their counterparts in the rest of the 1orld (any features of 1hat Bie=art and $o1ler* in their ntroduction* call Btransfor(in+ acti7is(s 2010NC. ). ) 6he fear is so pronounced that so(e ha7e called the trend the B sla(ist #prin+CD see for instance Ialt 020122. 5. 5 $or a detailed conceptualiKation and historical accounts of post; sla(is( see Bayat 02013b2. /. / 6he 7alue sur7ey inter7ie1ed 3*500 :+yptian adultsD see Moaddel 020122. -. Durin+ the 4uban re7olution* 1hile a handful of 4astroHs +roup too= o7er the (ountains of #ierra Mystera* 4he 8ue7ara be+an to con?uer the rest of the country 1ith 1), (enD see 3obsba1( 01GG/: )3,2. Mohn Ada(s fa(ously stated that only a third of the population supported the re7olutionariesD Fust i(a+ine ho1 (any 1ere re7olutionaries the(sel7es. Ada(s also belie7ed that another third supported the British* and the re(ainin+ third 1ere neutral. #ee $isher 020032 for a detailed account of the BA(erican %e7olutionC. ,. , As reported in al-Masry al-Youm O%!ypt &ndependentP* 1/ April 2011. G. G

Only ei+ht 1o(en (ana+ed to enter :+yptHs parlia(ent of ),0 (e(bers in the 2011 elections. 6han=s to a ?uota syste(* the 6unisian asse(bly acco((odates a (ore reasonable nu(ber of 1o(en deputies. 10. 10 n their ntroduction to this Debate* Bie=art and $o1ler correctly stress the Bne1nessC of these (o7e(ents and 1onder about their particular character. B%efo;lutionC is ho1 characteriKe the Arab traFectoryD and atte(pt to e>plain 1hy they 1ere so. understand the ter( Brefo;lutionC differently fro( 6i(othy 8arton Ash 1ho used it first in reference to the 1G,G 5olish and 3un+arian re7olutions. Iritin+ as early as 15 Mune 1G,G* 8arton AshHs ter( refers to the initial sta+es of chan+e 1here the rulin+ 4o((unist 5arties* pushed by popular (obiliKation* a+reed to so(e political refor(sD yet these refor(s entailed in a (atter of (onths a radical o7erhaul of the states* political syste(s* econo(ic (odels and :astern :urope as a 1hole. n this sense* the :astern :uropean e>perience of 1G,G resonates (ore 1ith Bre7olutionsC than Brefo; lutionsC. 11. 11 $or (ore e>tensi7e discussions see Bayat 02013a: 4h. 132 and Bayat 02013c2. 12. 12 On the :+yptian case see also Maha Abdelrah(anHs contribution to this Debate section.

'*3*'*0$*S
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Ayeb' Habib ()*++, ocial -eo!rap#y of t#e Tunisian Revolution.' Revie/ of African 0olitical %conomy 38(+)1,2 3456789

$a:#as#' #aul (+173, T#e Rei!n of Ayatolla#s9 ;e/ Yor:2 $asic $oo:s9 Ieb of #cienceQ $ayat' Asef ()*++, %!ypt and t#e 0ost-&slamist Middle %ast.' <penDemcoracy' =ebruary9

$ayat' Asef ()*+5a, 0ost-&slamism2 T#e >#an!in! =aces of 0olitical &slam9 ;e/ Yor:2 <xford ?niversity 0ress9

$ayat' Asef ()*+5b, Revolutions in $ad Times.' ;e/ @eft Revie/ Marc#AApril9 $ayat' Asef ()*+5c, @ife as 0olitics2 Ho/ <rdinary 0eople >#an!e t#e Middle %ast ()nd edn,9 0alo Alto' >A2 tanford ?niversity 0ress9

=is#er' 9 -eor!e ()**5, T#e True History of t#e American Revolution9 >#estnut Hill' MA2 Adamant Media >orporation9

-ause' -re!ory ()*++, "#y Middle %ast tudies Missed t#e Arab prin!2 T#e Myt# of Aut#oritarian tability.' =orei!n Affairs 90(3,2 7+61*9

Hobsba/m' %ric (+11B, T#e A!e of %xtremes2 A History of t#e "orld' +1+36+11+9 ;e/ Yor:2 Cinta!e9

Duran' Timur (+171, par:s and 0rairie =ires2 A T#eory of ?n-anticipated 0olitical Revolutions.' 0ublic >#oice 612 3+6439

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@ync#' Marc ()*++, TunisiaGs ;e/ al-;a#da.' =orei!n 0olicy )1 Hune9 Mitc#ell' Timot#y ()*++, >arbon Democracy2 0olitical 0o/er in t#e A!e of <il9 @ondon2 Cerso9

Moaddel' Mansoor ()*+), "#at do Arabs "antE.9 0roIect yndicate 3 Hanuary9 #ttp2AA///9proIect-syndicate9or!AcommentaryA/#at-do-arabs-/ant-

;orton-Taylor' Ric#ard ()*++, "#y Do Revolutions suc# as TunisiaGs >ome by urpriseE.' T#e -uardian + =ebruary9 #ttp2AA///9!uardian9co9u:AcommentisfreeA)*++AfebA*+Arevolutions-surprise-tunisiadiplomats-intelli!ence

Futb' 9 (+1B3, MaGalim fi al-Tariq9 >airo2 DaJi 0ublications9 #apiro' @eonard (+173, T#e Russian Revolutions of +1+42 T#e <ri!ins of Modern >ommunism9 ;e/ Yor:2 $asic $oo:s9

#aqroun' ;iJar ()*++, Ra/aya al-T#a/ra al-Tunisiya9 Tunis and $a#rain2 AlDosari9

de Tocqueville' Alex ()*++, T#e =renc# Revolution and t#e <ld Re!ime9 >ambrid!e2 >ambrid!e ?niversity 0ress9

?;D0 ()**3, Arab Human Development Report )**39 ;e/ Yor:2 ?nited ;ations Development 0ro!ramme9

"alt' Yi!al ()*+), &slamist prin! &s ?pon ?s.' Ynetne/s )3 Hune9 #ttp2AA///9ynetne/s9comAarticlesA*'453*'@-3)3B4))'**9#tml

"on!' Y9>9 Ric#ard ()*++, <n t#e urprise %lements of Revolution2 "#y Tunisia and %!yptE.9 3 Marc#9 #ttp2AA///9/an!yuIian9comAEpKB8*Llan!Ken

,iography
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Asef ,ayat* the 4atherine and Bruce Bastian 5rofessor of 8lobal and

6ransnational #tudies* teaches #ociolo+y and Middle :ast #tudies at the &ni7ersity of

llinois* &rbana;4ha(pai+n* G10 #outh $ifth #treet* 4ha(pai+n* < /1,20* &#A. 3is areas of interest ran+e fro( political sociolo+y and social (o7e(ents* to reli+ion and society* and urban space and politics. 3is (ost recent boo=s include @ife as 0olitics2 Ho/ <rdinary 0eople >#an!e t#e Middle %ast 0#tanford &ni7ersity 5ress* 2013* 2nd edn2* and 0ost-&slamism2 T#e >#an!in! =aces of 0olitical &slam 0O>ford &ni7ersity 5ress* 20132.