ETHICS + POLICY written by RORY SAYRES
An Unquenchable Thirst?
The Growing Global Demand for Oil, and the
Challenges for Alternatives
A coal power plant in Datteln,
Germany. As oil prices increase, many
nations are increasingly relying on coal
power for their energy needs. A goal
of many renewable energy initiatives
is to make the cost of renewable
energy sources competitive with fossil
fuels such as coal.
48 stanford scientific
An April 2008 New York Times
article pictured a Palo Alto Shell
station with the shocking price of $4.01
9/10 a gallon for regular gas. Just a few years
earlier, average prices were in the $2-3 range,
and a $3 price was considered shocking. Yet
by the time you read this article, $4 a gallon
may not seem so bad.
When will the price increases end—if
ever? As oil prices climb well past $100 a
barrel (and $4 a gallon), a number of basic
questions about our society’s energy habits
are becoming increasingly important.
What is causing the price increase? How
much oil will we be able to extract? How
do alternative energy sources compare in
terms of the energy they can provide, and
what hurdles lie in their implementation?
Stanford researchers in diverse fields such as
earth sciences, economics, physics, and law
are working on answers to these important
questions.
The Tip of the Iceberg
Rising oil prices have a global impact. Cheap
energy, particularly from fossil fuels such as
oil and natural gas, has become integral to
most aspects of modern industrial society.
Society’s dependence on oil results from the
many practical advantages it has over other
energy sources. Oil is very energy dense, and
a barrel (42 gallons) of oil provides from 720
to up to 1500 kilowatt-hours of chemical
energy. This energy has been compared
to the physical work provided by a healthy
adult working six hours a day for a year. The
ease in transporting oil also encourages its
widespread use.
However, oil is also a finite resource.
Because it has been produced over
geological time periods, there is no known
prospect of producing more oil once it
has been used. Energy experts generally
agree that there will be a point of peak
 There are a number of alternative energy sources which can
ameliorate society’s dependence on oil. However, the amount of
energy available for extraction from these sources is not as high
as for oil. Below is a brief summary of some of the major proposed
alternatives, and a short list of their favorable and unfavorable
aspects.
Coal: Coal can be nearly as energy-dense as oil, and many coal
reserves are in North America. However, coal production is also
expected to peak sometime this century, and burning of coal
releases much more CO2 than other energy sources, contributing
much more strongly to global warming. There are also issues in
storing and transporting the energy available from coal.
Nuclear: Unlike other energy sources, nuclear is the one source
whose energy source does not ultimately derive from the sun.
Rather, it relies on the conversion of a small amount of matter
into energy, generally from fission reactions. Because of this, it
does not face the supply limitations of oil, or the upper bound
set by the solar radiation incident on the Earth. However, it does
depend on the availability of fissile materials such as uranium,
which is already in scarce supply and whose own availability may
have peaked. In addition to the safety concerns about storing the
radioactive product of the nuclear reaction, and the possibility of
meltdowns, it also takes significant time, at least ten years, to get
a new nuclear plant online.
Solar: Solar energy can directly convert the sun’s rays into
electricity. There is a lot of the Earth’s surface which can be used
to harvest this energy. However, it currently accounts for only
a small percentage (less than 1%) of energy usage in the world,
and there are several logistic factors in scaling up its usage. Solar
is well-suited for providing electricity to homes, but may not
have the energy density, given the efficiency of current solar cell
technology, to do things like power large vehicles or air condition
large buildings. The manufacture of solar cells is also currently
highly dependent on oil, so as oil prices go up, solar prices tend
to go up as well.
Wind: Like solar, wind power provides around 1% of world
energy, and has a large potential for expansion. The main obstacle
lies in locating turbines in a region where the winds provide
enough energy to cover the cost of installing the turbines.

oil production followed by a subsequent
decline in the supply of oil. Much of the
disagreement about the severity of the
problem lies in predicting when this peak
will occur. Optimistic predictions indicate oil
production may peak later in this century,
while more pessimistic scenarios indicate
that production may have already peaked
sometime around 2004 or 2005.
Estimating actual production levels is
difficult because of uncertainty in how
much oil is still available, and in how easy it
will be to extract it. Oil-producing nations
and companies are often ambiguous in
estimating the size of their oil reserves, and
many countries have revised their estimates
of oil reserves in the ground. Furthermore,
not all oil is equally easy to get, or produces
as much energy. Much of the oil we get
in the future is expected to come from
“depleted” reserves, from which the easy-
to-reach oil has already been extracted.
The efficiency with which oil companies
can extract the remaining reserves, and the
energy density of these reserves, is not yet
clear.
Further complicating matters is the growing
demand for cheap energy in other parts of
has warned that these growing demands
will combine with increased difficulty in
supply to produce a tremendous strain on
global resources. “The economies of [China
and India] are growing so fast,” he warns.
“Every American burns something like 25
barrels of oil per year. Every Chinese, on
average, burns 1.2 barrels of oil per year.
And, the world average is somewhere
along 5 barrels, per person, per year. So, just
imagine, if China and India, were to rise to
our average. We suddenly need to increase
production, by something approaching ...
several billion barrels, extra, per year.”
Global Reach
The uncertain future of fossil fuel production
motivated the formation of Energy
Crossroads, a student organization which
seeks to open collaborations across the
many disciplines involved in energy matters.
“Energy Crossroads formed at Stanford
University in the fall of 2006 from a cross
section of students interested in hosting a
highly visible energy conference for three
different reasons: national security, the
economic opportunity of clean technology,
and environmental sustainability,” explains
Tyler Huebner, a Manging Director of the
group. “Since last year, Energy Crossroads
Credit: sxc.com

the world, notably China and India. Amos has become a global organization with
Nur, a Professor of Geophysics at Stanford, chapters in Denmark, Singapore, as well as
developing chapters in China, India, and

volume VII 49
 ETHICS + POL
The Energy Crossroads
Israel.” This spring the group hosted the
second annual conference, “From Vision to
Action: Sparking Global Change.”
The conference covered a number of
outstanding questions about energy
issues. In a keynote address, Michael
Shellenberger of the Oakland-based
think tank The Breakthrough Institute
discussed the substantial challenges facing
energy production in the twenty-first
century. According to Shellenberger, the
combination of rapidly growing global
demand and limited supply for fossil
fuels presents a challenge that requires
a fundamental shift in society’s way of
thinking about the problem.
Shellenberger stated that one of the goals
of renewable energy sources should be
cost-competitiveness with conventional
sources such as coal in order that nations
seriously consider using them, particularly
developing nations which are most sensitive
to energy costs. The conventional way in
which energy concerns are usually discussed
tends towards more of a fear-based
approach, which Shellenberger contended is
ineffective.
In the panel discussion “Alternative Paths:
The Existence or Myth of Sustainable
Growth in Developing Countries,” a variety
of experts discussed the conflicting needs
to provide affordable energy to help reduce
poverty levels in developing countries
and produce a clean energy infrastructure.
Panelists Ajit Nazre, of Kleiner Perkins
Caufield & Byers’ India Investment Initiative,
and Sheldon Xie, of the Joint U.S.-China
Cooperation on Clean Energy, compared
the roles of different energy sources in the
50 stanford scientific
developing economies of India and China. additional sources,” Nur explains, indicating
China has sizeable coal reserves and is that rising global demands are likely to put
actively bringing new coal plants online a strain on the supply of more renewable
to satisfy its rapidly expanding demands. sources as well as oil. These energy
However, India has relatively few sources sources also rely on an infrastructure that
of conventional fossil fuels, and as Nazre depends on fossil fuel inputs. Solar panels,
suggested, may be more receptive to for instance, require facilities to produce
renewable sources. semiconductors for photovoltaic cells, as
well as batteries to store electricity, and
Prince Moulay Hicham ben Abdallah of these facilities still depend heavily on more
Morocco also described the work of his traditional petroleum inputs.
institute, Al Tayyar Energy, which funds
projects to provide renewable electricity The ripples of the growing demand and
sources to developing countries. Al Tayyar limited supply of oil are presenting a
is funding projects to construct biogas substantial challenge to people from all
projects in Thailand and produce thousands walks of life. With their emphasis on starting
of solar-powered homes, heaters, and widespread changes to our habits and way
electric systems in southern Morocco. of thinking about energy, the participants in
the Energy Crossroads symposium depicted
Preparing for the Future a coordinated and large-scale response
A number of other energy sources are to this global issue. During the discussion,
being actively promoted to lessen society’s Berrien Moore, Executive Director of the
dependence on oil. These include coal, nonprofit Climate Central, summarized these
nuclear, solar, and wind power (see sidebar). sentiments when describing the different
avenues of response that are required.
While many of these sources are expected “We’re going to have to change our...” he
to scale up substantially in the coming began. Then pausing to consider the matter,
decades, it is not expected that any one of he said simply, “We’re going to have to
these will be a cure-all that will eliminate change.”
our dependence on oil. “Alternative energy
sources aren’t actually alternatives, they are
Rory Sayres completed his Ph.D. at Stanford in the Neurosciences program and works
as a postdoc studying visual perception using fMRI. He walks to work and is planting a
garden to cut back on his high-entropy lifestyle.
To Learn More
For more information, visit the Energy Crossroads homepage at energycrossroads.org.
You can also visit Professor Amos Nur’s homepage at srb.stanford.edu/nur.