Drilling Productivity Report

Independent Statistics & Analysis
U.S. Energy Information Administration

Drilling Productivity Report
For key tight oil and shale gas regions
October 2013
Bakken
Marcellus
Niobrara
Permian
Haynesville
Eagle Ford
The six regions analyzed in this report accounted for nearly 90% of domestic oil production growth and virtually all domestic natural gas production growth during 2011-12.
Contents
Year-over-year summary Bakken Eagle Ford Haynesville Marcellus Niobrara Permian Explanatory notes Sources 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Year-over-year summary
New-well oil production per rig
barrels/day November-2012 1,000 November-2013 6,000 5,000 750 thousand cubic feet/day November-2012
October 2013
drilling data through September projected production through November
New-well gas production per rig

November-2013
4,000
500 3,000 2,000 250 1,000 0
Bakken Eagle Ford Haynesville Marcellus Niobrara Permian
0
Legacy oil production change

thousand barrels/day
Legacy gas production change

million cubic feet/day
0 (10) (20) (30) (40) (50) (60) November-2012 (70) November-2013
0 (50) (100) (150) (200) (250) (300) (350)
(400)
(450) November-2012 November-2013
Indicated monthly change in oil production (Nov vs. Oct)

thousand barrels/day November-2012 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20
Indicated monthly change in gas production (Nov vs. Oct)

million cubic feet/day November-2012 500 400 November-2013
November-2013
300
200 100 0 -100 -200 -300
Oil production
thousand barrels/day November-2012 2,000 1,600 1,200 800 400 November-2013
Natural gas production

million cubic feet/day November-2012 12,000 November-2013
10,000
8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0
Bakken Eagle Ford Haynesville Marcellus Niobrara Permian Bakken Eagle Ford Haynesville Marcellus Niobrara Permian
U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report
Bakken
barrels/day month over month
October 2013
Oil +23
482 459
barrels/day
November October
Monthly additions from one average rig

Rig count rigs
250
November October
463 445
Gas +18
thousand cubic feet/day
thousand cubic feet/day month over month
Bakken New-well oil production per rig

barrels/day 600 500
Bakken New-well gas production per rig

thousand cubic feet/day 3,600 3,000
Rig count rigs

250 200
new-well oil production per rig rig count

200
new-well gas production per rig rig count
400 300 200

100 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
150 100
50 0
2,400 1,800 1,200

600 0 2007
150 100
50 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Bakken Legacy oil production change

thousand barrels/day 0 (10) (20) (30)
Bakken Legacy gas production change

million cubic feet/day 0 (10)
(20)
(30) (40) (50) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (60) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
(40)
(50) (60) (70) 2007
Bakken Indicated change in oil production (Nov vs. Oct)

thousand barrels/day 100
Bakken Indicated change in natural gas production (Nov vs. Oct)

million cubic feet/day 100
+86
-60
+26
+83
-54
+29
50
50
0 Oct 935 Mbbl/d Production from new wells Legacy production change Net change Nov 961 Mbbl/d
0 Oct 1,067 MMcf/d Production from new wells Legacy production change Net change Nov 1,096 MMcf/d
Bakken Oil production

thousand barrels/day 1,000 800 600 400
thousand barrels/day month over month
Oil +26
Bakken Natural gas production

million cubic feet/day 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000
million cubic feet/day month over month
Gas +29
200
0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
3
Eagle Ford
October 2013
Oil +8
404 396
barrels/day
November October

Rig count rigs
350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
November October
1,010 994
Gas +16
Eagle Ford New-well oil production per rig

barrels/day 600 500
Eagle Ford New-well gas production per rig

Rig count rigs

350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
400 300 200

100 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2,400 1,800 1,200

600 0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Eagle Ford Legacy oil production change

thousand barrels/day 0 (10) (20) (30) (40) (50) (60) (70) (80) (90) 2007 2008
Eagle Ford Legacy gas production change

million cubic feet/day 0 (20) (40) (60)
(80)
(100) (120) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (140) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Eagle Ford Indicated change in oil production (Nov vs. Oct)

100
Eagle Ford Indicated change in natural gas production (Nov vs. Oct)
million cubic feet/day +261 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Oct Production 4,404 from MMcf/d new wells
+105
-81
+24
-133
+128
50
0 Oct 1,069 Mbbl/d Production from new wells Legacy production change Net change Nov 1,093 Mbbl/d
Legacy production change
Net change
Nov 4,532 MMcf/d
Eagle Ford Oil production

thousand barrels/day 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2007 2008 2009 2010
Oil +24
Eagle Ford Natural gas production

million cubic feet/day 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2007
Gas +128
2011
2012
2013
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
4
Haynesville
October 2013
Oil +1
45 44
November October
barrels/day

Rig count rigs
300 250
November October
5,018 4,983
Gas +35
Haynesville New-well oil production per rig

barrels/day 1,000
Haynesville New-well gas production per rig

Rig count rigs

300 250
new-well oil production per rig

800
rig count
600 400
200 0 2007
200 150 100

50 0
4,000 3,000 2,000

1,000 0 2007
200 150 100

50 0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Haynesville Legacy oil production change

Haynesville Legacy gas production change

(1)
(200) (300)
(400)
(2) (500) (600) (3) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (700) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Haynesville Indicated change in oil production (Nov vs. Oct)

2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Oct 61 Mbbl/d Production from new wells Legacy production change Net change Nov 62 Mbbl/d
Haynesville Indicated change in natural gas production (Nov vs. Oct)

million cubic feet/day 250 150 50 -50 -150 Oct 6,721 MMcf/d Production from new wells Legacy production change Net change Nov 6,601 MMcf/d
+2
-1
+1
+228
-348
-120
Haynesville Oil production

thousand barrels/day 2,000 1,600 1,200 800
Oil +1
Haynesville Natural gas production

Gas -120
400
0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
5
Marcellus
October 2013
Oil +2
38 36
November October
barrels/day

Rig count rigs
160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
November October
5,980 5,820
Gas +160
Marcellus New-well oil production per rig

barrels/day 1,000
Marcellus New-well gas production per rig

thousand cubic feet/day 6,000
Rig count rigs

160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2012 2013
new-well oil production per rig

800
new-well gas production per rig

4,800
rig count
rig count
3,600 2,400
1,200 0 2007
600 400
200 0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2008
2009
2010
2011
Marcellus Legacy oil production change

Marcellus Legacy gas production change

(1)
(80) (120) (160)
(2)
(3) 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
(200) 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Marcellus Indicated change in oil production (Nov vs. Oct)

thousand barrels/day 4.0
3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Oct 48 Mbbl/d Production from new wells Legacy production change Net change Nov 51 Mbbl/d
Marcellus Indicated change in natural gas production (Nov vs. Oct)

million cubic feet/day 600 400 200 0 Oct 12,237 MMcf/d Production from new wells Legacy production change Net change Nov 12,645 MMcf/d
+4
-1
+3
+579
-171
+408
Marcellus Oil production

thousand barrels/day 2,000 1,600 1,200 800
Oil +3
Marcellus Natural gas production

million cubic feet/day 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000
Gas +408
400
0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
6
Niobrara
October 2013
Oil +7
312 305
barrels/day
November October

Rig count rigs
140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
November October
978 1,038
Gas -60
Niobrara New-well oil production per rig

barrels/day 600 500
Niobrara New-well gas production per rig

Rig count rigs

140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
400 300 200

100 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2,400 1,800 1,200

600 0 2007

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Niobrara Legacy oil production change

thousand barrels/day 0 (5) (10) (15) (20) (25) 2007
Niobrara Legacy gas production change

million cubic feet/day 0 (50) (100) (150) (200) (250) 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Niobrara Indicated change in oil production (Nov vs. Oct)

30
Niobrara Indicated change in natural gas production (Nov vs. Oct)

million cubic feet/day 100 50 0 -50 -100
+30
-23
+7
+94
-154
-60
20
10 0 Oct 260 Mbbl/d Production from new wells Legacy production change Net change Nov 267 Mbbl/d
Oct 4,610 MMcf/d
Production from new wells
Net change
Nov 4,550 MMcf/d
Niobrara Oil production

thousand barrels/day 1,000 800 600 400
Oil +7
Niobrara Natural gas production

Gas -60
200
0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
7
Permian
October 2013
Oil 0
79 79
November October
barrels/day

Rig count rigs
600 500
November October
175 173
Gas +2
Permian New-well oil production per rig

barrels/day 600 500
Permian New-well gas production per rig

Rig count rigs

600 500
400 300 200

100 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
400 300 200

100 0
2,400 1,800 1,200

600 0 2007
400 300 200

100 0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Permian Legacy oil production change

thousand barrels/day 0 (5) (10) (15) (20) (25) (30) (35) (40) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Permian Legacy gas production change

million cubic feet/day 0 (20) (40) (60)
(80)
(100) (120) (140) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Permian Indicated change in oil production (Nov vs. Oct)

30
Permian Indicated change in natural gas production (Nov vs. Oct)

million cubic feet/day 80 60 40 20 0
+35
-34
+1
+77
-74
+3
20
10 0 Oct 1,292 Mbbl/d Production from new wells Legacy production change Net change Nov 1,292 Mbbl/d
Oct 4,735 MMcf/d
Production from new wells
Net change
Nov 4,739 MMcf/d
Permian Oil production

thousand barrels/day 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2007 2008 2009 2010
Oil +1
Permian Natural gas production

million cubic feet/day 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2007 2008
Gas +3
2011
2012
2013
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
8
Explanatory notes
October 2013
The Drilling Productivity Report uses recent data on the total number of drilling rigs in operation along with estimates of drilling productivity and estimated changes in production from existing oil and natural gas wells to provide estimated changes in oil and natural gas production for six key fields. EIAs approach does not distinguish between oil-directed rigs and gas-directed rigs because once a well is completed it may produce both oil and gas; more than half of the wells do that.
Monthly additions from one average rig Monthly additions from one average rig represent EIAs estimate of an average rigs1 contribution to production of oil and natural gas from new wells.2 The estimation of new-well production per rig uses several months of recent historical data on total production from new wells for each field divided by the region's monthly rig count, lagged by two months.3 Current- and next-month values are listed on the top header. The month-over-month change is listed alongside, with +/- signs and color-coded arrows to highlight the growth or decline in oil (brown) or natural gas (blue).
New-well oil/gas production per rig Charts present historical estimated monthly additions from one average rig coupled with the number of total drilling rigs as reported by Baker Hughes.
Legacy oil and natural gas production change Charts present EIAs estimates of total oil and gas production changes from all the wells other than the new wells. The trend is dominated by the well depletion rates, but other circumstances can influence the direction of the change. For example, well freeze-offs or hurricanes can cause production to significantly decline in any given month, resulting in a production increase the next month when production simply returns to normal levels. Projected change in monthly oil/gas production Charts present the combined effects of new-well production and changes to legacy production. Total new-well production is offset by the anticipated change in legacy production to derive the net change in production. The estimated change in production does not reflect external circumstances that can affect the actual rates, such as infrastructure constraints, bad weather, or shut-ins based on environmental or economic issues. Oil/gas production Charts present oil and natural gas production from both new and legacy wells since 2007. This production is based on all wells reported to the state oil and gas agencies. Where state data are not immediately available, EIA estimates the production based on estimated changes in new-well oil/gas production and the corresponding legacy change.
Footnotes: 1. The monthly average rig count used in this report is calculated from weekly data on total oil and gas rigs reported by Baker Hughes 2. A new well is defined as one that began producing for the first time in the previous month. Each well belongs to the new-well category for only one month. Reworked and recompleted wells are excluded from the calculation. 3. Rig count data lag production data because EIA has observed that the best predictor of the number of new wells beginning production in a given month is the count of rigs in operation two months earlier.
Sources
The data used in the preparation of this report come from the following sources. EIA is solely responsible for the analysis, calculations, and conclusions.
October 2013
Drilling Info (http://www.drillinginfo.com) Source of production, permit, and spud data for counties associated with this report. Source of real-time rig location to estimate new wells spudded and completed throughout the United States. Baker Hughes (http://www.bakerhughes.com) Source of rig and well counts by county, state, and basin. North Dakota Oil and Gas Division (https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas) Source of well production, permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in North Dakota Railroad Commission of Texas (http://www.rrc.state.tx.us) Source of well production, permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in Texas Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (https://www.paoilandgasreporting.state.pa.us/publicreports/Modules/Welcome/Welcome.aspx) Source of well production, permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in Pennsylvania West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection (http://www.dep.wv.gov/oil-andgas/Pages/default.aspx) Source of well production, permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in West Virginia Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (http://cogcc.state.co.us) Source of well production, permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in Colorado
Wyoming Oil and Conservation Commission (http://wogcc.state.wy.us ) Source of well production, permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in Wyoming
Louisiana Department of Natural Resources (http://dnr.louisiana.gov) Source of well production, permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in Louisiana
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Independent Statistics & Analysis

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New-well gas production per rig

Legacy oil production change

Legacy gas production change

0 (10) (20) (30) (40) (50) (60) November-2012 (70) November-2013

0 (50) (100) (150) (200) (250) (300) (350)

Indicated monthly change in oil production (Nov vs. Oct)

Indicated monthly change in gas production (Nov vs. Oct)

Natural gas production

U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report