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that will be scored in a soccer match. Read on for a simple method to calculate the likely outcome of a soccer match using Poisson Distribution.
Poisson Distribution Explained
Poisson Distribution is a mathematical concept for translating mean averages into a probability for variable outcomes. For example, Chelsea might average 1.7 goals per game. Entering this information into a Poisson formula would show that this average equates to Chelsea scoring 0 goals 18.3% of the time, 1 goal 31% of the time, 2 goals 26.4% of the time and 3 goals 15% of the time.
In 2012/13, that was 592/20/19 at home and 471/20/19 away, equalling an average of 1.558 goals per game at home and 1.239 away. The difference from this average is what constitutes a teams Attack Strength.
Average number of goals scored at home: 1.558 Average number of goals scored away from home: 1.239
Well also need the average number of goals an average team concedes. This is simply the inverse of the above numbers (as the no. of goals a home team scores will equal the same number that an away team concedes.):
Average number of goals conceded at home: 1.239 Average number of goals conceded away from home: 1.558
We can now use the numbers above to calculate the Attack and Defence Strength of both Swansea City and Manchester United for their match on August 17th, 2013.
a. Take the number of goals scored at home last season by the home team (Swansea: 28) and divide by the number of home games (28/19): 1.473 b. Divide this value by the seasons average home goals scored per game (1.473/1.558), to get the Attack Strength: 0.946. This shows that Swansea scored 5.4% fewer goals at home than a hypothetical average Premier League side.
a. Take the number of goals conceded away last season by the away team (Man Utd: 24) and divide by the number of away games (24/19): 1.263.
b. Divide this by the seasons average goals conceded by an away team per game (1.263/1.558) to get the Defence Strength: 0.81. Man Utd conceded 19% fewer goals than an average Premier League side on the road.
We can now use the following formula to calculate the likely number of goals the home team might score:
Swanseas Goals = Swanseas Attack x Man Utds Defence x Average No. Goals
In this case, thats 0.946* 0.81 * 1.558, which equates to Swansea scoring 1.194 goals.
1. Take the number of goals scored away last season by the away team (Man Utd: 41) and divide by the number of away games (41/19): 2.158 2. Divide this value by the seasons average away goals scored per game (2.158/1.239), to get the Attack Strength: 1.742. This shows that the Red Devils scored 74.2% more away goals than a hypothetical average Premier League side.
1. Take the number of goals conceded at home last season by the home team (Swansea: 26) and divide by the number of home games (26/19): 1.368. 2. Divide this by the seasons average goals conceded by a home team per game (1.368/1.239) to get the Defence Strength: 1.104. Swansea conceded 10.4% more goals than an average Premier League side at home.
We can now use the following formula to calculate the likely number of goals the away team might score:
Man Utds Goals = Man Utds Attack x Swanseas Defence x Average No. Goals
In this case, thats 1.742 * 1.104 * 1.239, which equates to Man Utd scoring 2.383 goals.
This example shows that there is a 9.2% chance that Man Utd will not score, but a 22% chance they will get a single goal and a 26.2% chance theyll score two. Swansea, on the other hand, are at 30.3% not to score, 36.2% to score one and 21.6% to score two. Hoping for a side to score five? The probability is 5.9% if United are the scorers, or 0.61% for Swansea to do it. As both scores are independent (mathematically-speaking), you can see that the expected score is 2 1 to Man Utd. If you multiply the two probabilities together, youll get the probability of the 2-1 outcome 0.095 or 9.5%. Now you know how to calculate outcomes, you should compare your result to a bookmakers odds to help see how they differentiate. For example, taking into account all possible draw combinations (0-0, 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, 4-4 and 5-5), this method gives a probability of 0.186 or 18.6%. Pinnacle Sports odds were 3.960 (a 25.3% implied probability).
Therefore if last seasons form was a perfect indicator of this seasons results, we should expect a 2-1 victory. Unfortunately it isnt as simple as that, which is why pure Poisson analysis has limitations.