The China Wave: Rise Of A Civilizational State by Zhang Weiwei

Preface to the English Version

Popular why? 1. Chinas extraordinary rise defies easy comprehension not only for foreigners, but also for the Chinese themselves, who have experienced first-hand the worlds fastest economic and social transformation for three decades running 2. The Chinese are intensely curious about the outside world and about how their country compares with other countries after three decades of fast change 3. Most important while the rest of the world is debating the rise of China and its global impact, China itself is engaged in a different type of debate, a highly heated one over the facts and nature of Chinas rise a. Two opposing views: i. China is full of pitfalls and crises, and unless China follows the Western model, particularly the American one (despite the current crisis in the US), China will become a hopeless country ii. Whatever problems China has, the country should continue to follow its own largely successful model of development while assimilating whatever is good from the outside, and if the model is abandoned Chinas future will be in tatters Book takes a clear position in favor of the latter view and argues that Chinas rise is not the rise of an ordinary country, but the rise of a country sui generis, a civilizational state, a new model of development and a new political discourse which questions many of the Western assumptions about democracy, good governance and human rights, and all this may well usher in a wave of change unprecedented in human history
Introduction

China (or the rise of China) remains controversial in the West for many reasons o Over the past 30 years, the Chinese state has often been portrayed in the Western media as a dichotomy of a repressive regime clinging to power and a society led by pro-democracy dissidents bordering on rebellion some Europeans, for instance, in Oslo, still view China as an enlarged East Germany or Belarus awaiting a color revolution This perception has led many China-watchers in the West to predict a pessimistic future for China The regime would collapse after the Tiananmen Even in 1989

China would follow in the footsteps of the Soviet Union in its disintegration Chaos would engulf China after Deng Xiaopings death The prosperity of Hong Kong would fade with its return to China The explosion of SARS would be Chinas Chernobyl China would fall apart after its WTO entry Chaos would ensue following the 2008 global financial tsunami Yet, all these forecasts turn outs to be wrongit is not China that has collapsed, but all the forecasts about Chinas collapse have collapsed We need to adopt the approach by German philosopher G.W. Leibniz (1646-1716) focus on how the Chinese have developed what he called natural religion or the secular application of ethics and political philosophy to social, economic and political governance If freed from ideological hangups, may come to see what has happened over the past three decades in China is arguably the greatest economic and social revolution in human history 400 million have been lifted from povery China model has taken shape in the midst of global turbulence and competition therefore resilient and competitive, and unlikely to far apart easily From a long-term historical perspective, Chinas rise, at least to this author, is not that of an ordinary country, but the rise of a civilizational state o China is now the only country in the world which has amalgamated the worlds longest continuous civilization with a huge modern state

Chapter 1: Not Misreading Oneself

1.1. A Fast-Changing World 2009: the rise of China was the top news item in the past decade, more than 9/11 or the Iraq War Speed of Chinas rise is stunning o Chinas total GDP has increased 18-fold since 1979 o Now the worlds second-largest economy when its GDP is calculated in dollar terms at the official exchange rate o If calculated in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), China may have already become the worlds second largest economy in 1992 o Overtook Germany as the worlds largest exporting country in 2009 o Over past three decades, US$800 billion worth of foreign investments have poured into China, and the country has become a locomotive for worldwide growth over the past few years o 2009: contributed to about 50% of the worlds economic and trade growth o Lawrence H. Summers, former US Treasury Secretary, estimated that if a persons living standards doubled in his lifetime during Britains Industrial Revolution, the living standards of a Chinese may increase seven times in his lifetime during Chinas process of modernization o Up until ten years ago, the Western media had been lamenting the Chine banking system for its excessive nonperforming debts but by 2010, three out of five of the worlds largest banks were Chinese (6) Though the rise of China is apparently acknowledged everywhere, some in China remain suspicious of or even hostile towards this face )6)

1.2. 1.3. 1.4. 1.5.

The Usual Ascent Surpassing Japan The GDP Paradox To the Top

Chapter 2: Chinas 1 + 1 > 2

2.1. 2.2. 2.3. 2.4.

The Quasi-Developed Countries within China The Size of Chinas Middle Class The Emerging Economics within China Why Chinas 1 + 1 > 2?

Chapter 3: The Rise of a Civilizational State

3.1. 3.2. 3.3. 3.4. Chinas Rocky Path towards a Nation-State The Rise of a Civilizational State A New Perspective Looking at China Afresh

Chapter 4: The Rise of a Development Model

4.1. Reflections after the Crises 4.2. The China Model May Win Out 4.3. Shaping the Chinese Standards

Chapter 5: The Rise of a New Political Discourse

5.1. Political Reform, the Chinese Way 5.2. Debating Human Rights 5.3. The Rise of a New Political Discourse

Chapter 6: The End of the End of History

6.1. The Western Model: from India to Eastern Europe 6.2. The Western Model: East Asia and Beyond 6.3. Debating with Fukuyama: The End of the End of History